Sunshine State Clash
By Kevin Rogers
The rivalry between the University of Miami and Florida State doesn't hold the same meaning as it did earlier in the decade, but the Canes and Noles usually provide very close games when they hook up. The venue shifts to Tallahassee this season, as Bobby Bowden's club goes for their second straight win over UM. Meanwhile, down in Coral Gables, there has plenty of drama with Randy Shannon's club recently.
The offseason has been interesting for both squads, as FSU was in the news for victories getting taken away due to the use of ineligible players. Despite the issue not resolved yet, it does affect Bowden's career win total, as he is battling it out with Penn State's Joe Paterno for the most career victories in college football.
The Hurricanes lost three quarterbacks over the last eight months, as last season's co-starter Robert Marve transferred to Purdue, while backups Taylor Cook and Cannon Smith told Shannon last week that they were leaving the program. Shannon had been intent on starting sophomore Jacory Harris this season, and now there are two quarterbacks on the roster, to go along with true freshman A.J. Highsmith (son of former UM running back, Alonzo).
The Canes will be missing two defensive linemen for Monday's game, as defensive end Eric Moncur is out with a groin injury, while fellow defensive end Adewele Ojomo is out with a broken jaw.
The Seminoles ran all over the Canes in last season's 41-39 victory in Miami, as FSU rushed for 310 yards. FSU quarterback Christian Ponder tallied 144 yards on the ground, becoming the first Nole to rush for over 100 yards in a game since Charlie Ward in 1992.
Over the last decade, eight games have been decided by eight points or less, including each contest since 2002. This will be the fourth time that the rivals are playing on Labor Day weekend, as opposed to the traditional first week of October. The last two games have sailed 'over' the total, with UM winning in Tallahassee, 37-29 in 2007 as 5 ½-point underdogs. The Seminoles returned the favor with last season's two-point win in the rain storm at Landshark Stadium as 1 ½-point 'dogs. However, both those contests were played in October, as opposed to the Labor Day games, with all three September matchups not seeing more than 26 combined points from 2004-2006, and all hitting the 'under.'
FSU is 0-3 ATS the last three as a home favorite in this rivalry, while the road underdog is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings, dating back to 1999. The Seminoles have not been a strong play at Doak Campbell Stadium as home 'chalk' over the last four seasons, compiling a 7-13 ATS mark.
In Shannon's two seasons at the "U," the Canes are just 9-14-1 ATS, but do own a 4-3-1 ATS record as an underdog. The 'push' at Florida last season can be argued as a loss, but the game closed with the Gators laying 23 points, and winning 26-3.
The Seminoles opened as four-point favorites, but the line has moved up to 6 and even 6 ½ in some spots. The total is set at 47, but has crept up to 48 at several shops.
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Canes and Noles Clash
By Sportsbook.com
The bitter Florida rivalry between Florida State & Miami had gotten rather dull in recent years. However, with both teams supposedly headed back towards greater respectability, they will play once again on Labor Day night. Host FSU is a 6-1/2 point favorite at Sportsbook.com and receiving the majority of attention from the early bettors.
Miami is 4-1 ATS at Tallahassee and has new coordinators on both sides of the ball to work with 16 returning starters. The Hurricanes will feature a pro-style attack, with sophomore Jacory Harris running the show solo, Robert Marve having transferred. Graig Cooper leads a rushing attack that should be improved, with a greater commitment after averaging only 129 yards per game a season ago. This is key area for Miami since they are 22-8 ATS in road games when they rush for 150 to 200 yards.
Defensively, a number of real solid players are available, though not the typical All-American studs normally seen on the Coral Gables campus. The Hurricanes were last in run defense in the ACC a year ago and defensive packs managed only two interceptions. Linebacker is the best position at the “U”, with Sean Spence the ringleader.
Most of the off-season talk on the Florida State campus has centered on legendary Bobby Bowden losing 14 wins in 2006-07 for rules infractions. As Florida State continues the fight to reinstate those victories, Bowden will work on something he can control, this year’s team.
The Seminoles regained their strength up front on offense, averaging 177 yards rushing per game in 2008. All five starters from that contingent are back and will be leaned on heavily, while new receivers are discovered for sophomore signal caller Christian Ponder. Last season, Ponder played like a talented freshman, showing glimpses of good and bad, he’ll be expected to improve if Florida State expects to be ACC Atlantic champs. Defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews, in his 26th season, will have work to do with just five starters back. How quickly Andrews can make this cohesive unit will set the tone.
Sportsbook.com has the Seminoles as 6-1/2-point favorites with a total of 48. Florida State is only 12-19 ATS as an ACC home favorite since 2001 and will be playing in Doak Campbell Stadium at well below capacity. The Canes are 6-3 ATS as conference road underdogs the last five years in this competitive series.
This Florida battle has been dominated by the underdog, covering eight of the last 10 times. That has usually been the road team, who is 8-3 ATS in these gatherings. Keep an eye on the first team to score, with this squad emerging as straight up winner 80 percent of the time in last 20 encounters.
Game of the day: Hurricanes at Seminoles
By Nick Parsons
Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles (-6.5, 46.5)
Stopping the Florida State run
The Seminoles had 283 net rush yards in last year’s game, with quarterback Christian Ponder responsible for 147 of those. Miami had no answer for the speed option. Florida State wasn’t the only team that gave the Canes trouble. At the end of last season they gave up 472 yards against Georgia Tech and 219 versus N.C. State.
New defensive coordinator John Lovett is aware of this weakness. Look for Miami to put eight people in the box in most situations.
Ponder vs. Harris
Last year Christian Ponder threw for 14 TDs and 13 INTs and had to fight for the starting position. Ponder should be aided by an offensive line intact from last season. The unit’s experience as well as Ponder’s own from a year ago, should help the FSU offense. Offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher is expecting Miami to focus on stopping the run, so we may see more passing from Ponder than usual.
Jacory Harris split duties under center as a true freshman last year. He enters this year as the starter, but he’ll have to master new offensive coordinator Mark Whipple’s pro style attack.
Graig Cooper and Javarris James will lead the rushing attack, but expect many three and four receiver sets from Miami.
Miami quick hits
- Depth at QB is thin with Robert Mavre, Taylor Cook, and Cannon Smith all transferring. That leaves true freshman A.J. Highsmith as the lone scholarship backup.
- Starters CB Ryan Hill and SS Vaughn Telemaque suffered injuries in Saturday's practice and are not expected to play on Monday.
- Hurricanes have had 4 straight losing seasons ATS
Florida State Quick bits
-Walk on Craig Yarborough is listed to start at Left End
-True freshman Dustin Hopkins, the No. 1 kicker out of high school, is listed as the starter. He hit a 65 yard FG in H.S.
-Seven true freshman are listed in either the first or second team in the pre-game depth chart that was released last Monday.
Line movement
The line opened up with Florida favored by 4 points. It’s since moved to -6 or -6.5 at most books. The total opened at 48.5 and is hovering between 46.5 and 47.
Trends
The spread was fairly sharp last year with Florida State covering by just three points. They were 1-point underdogs and won 41-39. The dog has covered the number in the last seven meetings.
The total has gone over the last two meetings and by a significant amount. The score went over by 39.5 points last year and 23.5 points in 2007.
Miami leads the series 30-23 overall, but is 2-3 in the last five matchups.
Weather
Monday night forecast expects lows around 66 with northeast winds around five mph. The field could be wet by kickoff with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Cincinnati at Rutgers
The Bearcats will try to make it four in a row over Big East rival Rutgers when these two open the season with a conference clash at Rutgers Stadium in New Jersey.
Cincinnati won the Big East last season thanks to six straight wins (4-2 ATS) to close the regular season. The conference crown got the Bearcats into the Orange Bowl where they fell to Virginia Tech 20-7, getting upset as 2½-point favorites
Cincy coach Brian Kelly has Tony Pike back under center, coming off a 2008 campaign that saw him throw for 2,407 yards, 19 TDs and 11 INTs. However, Pike threw four of those INTs in the Orange Bowl loss, and he missed the Rutgers contest with a broken left arm.
After a brutal 1-5 (2-3 ATS) start to 2008, the Scarlet Knights rallied to win their final seven games, including a 63-14 dismantling of Louisville in the regular-season finale to make them bowl eligible. Rutgers then beat N.C. State 29-23 in the Papajohns.com Bowl in Alabama, pushing as a six-point favorite.
Knights coach Greg Schiano has not decided on a QB replacement for longtime starter Mike Teel, who graduated and is now with the Seattle Seahawks. Schiano said he might use all three of QBs, including fifth-year seniors Dom Natlae and Jabu Lovelace as well as true freshman Tom Savage.
The Bearcats have gotten the cash in five of the last seven meetings with Rutgers, dating back to 1989. Since they became Big East rivals in 2005, Cincinnati has gone 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS), winning each of the last three, including last year’s 13-10 home win, coming up short as a seven-point chalk. The underdog has cashed in each of the last three clashes between these two and seven of the last nine.
Cincinnati is on several positive ATS streaks, including 7-2 in September, 4-1 in Big East action, 9-1-1 as a ‘dog and 5-1-1 as a road pup. Meanwhile, the Scarlet Knights failed to cover in all four September games in 2008, but they’re 5-0-1 ATS in their last six overall, including four consecutive covers in Big East action.
It’s been all “overs” lately for the Bearcats, including four straight on the road, five of six in September, eight of 11 on grass and four of five as road ‘dogs. Rutgers has gone over the posted total in four straight Big East games and four of five on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Miami, Fla. at (18) Florida State
The Hurricanes make the trek to Tallahassee to take on Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium for this annual battle between Atlantic Coast Conference rivals.
It was a season of streaks in 2008 for Miami, which opened 2-3 (2-2 ATS) before winning five straight (3-2 ATS) in the middle portion of the season, only to lose three straight (1-2 ATS) to finish the campaign. The season ended with the Hurricanes falling to California 24-17 in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco, though they covered as 10-point underdogs.
Miami’s third-year coach Randy Shannon has sophomore QB Jacory Harris (1,195 yards, 12 TDs, 5 INTs) back after he split time with Robert Marve last season. The ‘Canes will be without four key defensive players for the opener, including ends Eric Moncur and Adewale Ojomo, as well as DBs Ryan Hill and Vaughn Telemaque.
Florida State came out of the gate strong in 2008, winning six of seven (3-2 ATS) before alternating wins and losses over the final six games (3-2-1 ATS). The season ended on a strong note, though, as the Seminoles blew out Wisconsin 42-13 as a seven point favorite in the Champs Sports Bowl, the schools’ 27th consecutive bowl appearance.
Entering his 34th season with the Seminoles, 79-year-old coach Bobby Bowden has got junior QB Christian Ponder back after a solid sophomore campaign in which he threw for 2,006 yards and while rushing for 426 yards and four scores. However, Ponder nearly matched his TD production with 13 INTs.
Ponder torched the Hurricanes for 159 yards passing and 144 rushing in Florida State’s 41-39 victory last season, cashing as a one-point road ‘dog. Miami leads the series with the Seminoles, 30-23 SU, but Florida State has won and covered three of the last four after losing six straight to start the decade (1-5 ATS). The underdog has cashed in eight of the last 10 series meetings, including seven straight (not including one pick-em in 2004). Miami has had luck at Tallahassee recently, too, cashing in four of its last five visits to Doak Campbell Stadium.
The Hurricanes are on ATS runs of 6-2 on the road and 4-1 as a ‘dog, but they are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 ACC games. Florida State is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five has home chalk.
The “under” has been the play in 13 of Miami’s last 18 September kickoffs and four of its last five as a pup. Conversely, FSU is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 at home and 5-1 when favored. Finally, the under is on a 6-2 roll in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Gametimepicks.com
Sunshine State Tussle
By SportsPic.com
The first week of the college football season closes out with an ACC showdown in Tallahassee between Florida State Seminoles and Miami Hurricanes. Seminoles off a nine-win season (9-4, 6-5 ATS) have the luxury of five starters back on the offensive line but the squad lost three tacklers on the defensive side. Still, with their potent ground game and QB Christian Ponder having a year under his belt Bobby Bowden's troops should take this early season clash between the Sunshine State rivals. However, covering the expected 6.5 point spot could be troublesome. Keep in mind 5 of the past 8 meetings ended within a field goal including last years 41-39 shootout victory posted by Florida State. Canes are 10-4 ATS as road underdog of 7 or less, Noles are 2-7 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 7.
Cincinnati at Rutgers
Home side won three of four Cincinnati-Rutgers games; Bearcats won last visit here 28-23 (+4) two years ago. Dog covered three of those four games. Cincy lost ten starters on defense, but their top four RB are back and they have three starters back on OL. Rutgers has all five starters on OL and top four RB back, but they're breaking in new QB. Knights are 14-9 vs spread in last 23 home games. Bearcats are 5-2-1 against spread in their last eight games as a road underdog- they've got a senior QB.
Miami (FL) at FSU
Underdogs covered last four Miami-Florida State games, with road team winning the last three- four of last five series games were decided by six or less points. Seminoles are 7-13 as a home favorite since '05 (16-26 as a favorite since '04). FSU has all of its five starters back on OL, but none of them are seniors. Miami has a soph QB and only one backup, so if the starter gets hurt, they're screwed. Miami covered eight of last 21 on road and is 4-6 vs spread in its last ten games as the underdog.
Hurricanes invade FSU
The Hurricanes open their 84th season of college football with its 54th game against intrastate and Atlantic Coast Conference rival Florida State. Miami and Florida State have faced each other 11 times to open the season. FSU holds a 7-4 edge in those games. Five of those 11 games have been shutouts: three by Miami and two by FSU.
Miami leads the all-time series between the two schools, 30-23. In last year's game at Dolphin Stadium, FSU jumped out to a 24-3 halftime lead. However, the Canes stormed back, cutting the lead to two before eventually falling short in the end 41-39.
When Miami and Florida State play, the team that has scored first has won 16 of the last 18 meetings (the only two times it didn't happen was 2004 and 2007) and 21 of the last 24. The last six games in the Miami-Florida State rivalry have been decided by a total of 24 points, with one game going into overtime (a six-point Miami win in 2004).
Quarterbacks
Christian Ponder is the Seminoles' starting quarterback. He threw for 2,006 yards with 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 2008. Ponder threw for 159 yards and rushed for 144 in a 41-39 victory at Miami on Oct. 4, 2008. Ponder lacks accuracy and proven receivers, but he has plenty of mobility. Ponder threw 13 interceptions and only eight touchdowns last year but he did lead FSU to its first nine win season since 2004.
Sophomore Jacory Harris leads the Miami offense at quarterback. Harris completed 61% of his tosses with 12 TD passes in his freshman campaign. Harris will be asked to throw the ball down the field more this year under new O.C. Mark Whipple who comes from the NFL.
Edge FSU
Running Backs/Offensive Line
Jermaine Thomas showed flashes of brilliance at FSU as a freshman, averaging 7.0 yards per carry in limited action and is poised to handle a much more expanded role this season. Sophomore Ty Jones should emerge as a nice compliment to Thomas. FSU averaged 4.8 yards per carry behind All Americans Rodney Hudson, Andrew Datko and all conference candidate Zebrie Sanders. Five starters returning along the offensive line which will be one of the country’s best.
Miami will feature the duo of Graig Cooper and Javariss James at tailback. Cooper ran for 841 yards and four touchdowns last season. James rushed for 1,670 yards and 12 touchdowns in his career, is 15 pounds lighter and primed for his senior season after missing four games in 2008 due to a high-ankle sprain in his left leg. Other than Jason Fox no one stands out on Miami’s offensive line.
Edge FSU
Wide Receivers
Without last season’s leading receivers Greg Carr and Preston Parker to throw to this year, Ponder will look downfield for Reed, Jarmon Fortson and senior Richard Goodman. The jury is out on this group of wide receivers.
The receivers are a concern as the Hurricanes lack an elite pass catcher. Look for Aldarious Johnson QB Harris’ High School teammate to make an impression. Miami had 22 td’s last season but averaged only 10.8 yards per catch.
Edge Miami
Defense
Seminole defense returned to prominence in 2008, as one of the most athletic and stingy units in the nation. Every area of the defense was hit hard by graduation. LB Dekoda Watson, DE Markus White and the secondary with three seniors, in safeties Jamie Robinson and Korey Magnum and cornerback Patrick Robinson will lead the FSU Defense. Mickey Andrews long time FSU Defensive Coordinator says this is the fastest defense ever at FSU.
The Hurricanes will be without defensive end Eric Moncur (groin) and defensive backs Ryan Hill and Vaughn Telemaque due to shoulder injuries for the opener, while defensive end Adewale Ojomo might miss the entire season with a broken jaw.
Edge FSU
Special Teams
The Seminoles have high school All- American Dustin Hopkins kicking field goals with his big leg. Sophomore Shawn Powell will handle the punting duties.
Miami returns Punter/Place kicker Matt Bosher and he’s a weapon at both positions. He was 18-20 on field goals. The coverage teams are solid. Travis Benjamin did a solid job returning punts in 2008.
Edge Miami
Betting Trends:
Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog
FSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite
The UNDERDOG is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 games between the two teams
The UNDER is 6-2 in the last 8 games between the two teams
Top 25 Preview
Line: Florida State by 6.
Series record: Miami leads 30-23.
Last meeting: 2008, Florida State, 41-39.
Respect. After years of playing games where national titles were part of the picture, the two rivals are now hoping to climb back into prominence and in an Atlantic Coast Conference opener where the loser is instantly in need of help to qualify for the league's title game in December. The game would seem to be almost a must-win for the visiting Hurricanes, who have No. 15 Georgia Tech, No. 7 Virginia Tech and third-ranked Oklahoma in their next three games while Florida State has a recovery date Sept. 12 against Jacksonville (Ala.) State.
Miami's defense versus Florida State running game. The Seminoles went wild in last year's 41-39 win on Miami's turf, rushing for 310 yards and piling up 27 first downs. And the Hurricanes didn't get any better as the season wore on, giving up 691 yards rushing in their final two regular season games.
Miami quarterback Jacory Harris and a stable of veteran running backs could also test a Florida State defense that lost both starting ends, two linebackers and two defensive backs from last year's 9-4 team.
Miami: Harris played only briefly in last year's loss as a backup to Robert Marve, who transferred after losing the starting job late in the season. Harris completed 60.8 percent of his passes for a dozen touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Florida State: Sophomore tailback Jermaine Thomas, who got 51 yards on two carries in last year's game and could benefit from a veteran offensive line that returns intact.
Florida State officials still had 5,000 unsold tickets by close of business Thursday for a game that's been a sellout in Tallahassee the past three decades. ... Rain has been part of this series and is in the forecast again Monday. ... Gov. Charlie Crist, a Florida State alum, will be in the stands.
Tips and Trends
Miami of Florida at Florida State
Miami: The Hurricanes are a mystery team heading into the season with new offensive (Mark Whipple) and defensive (John Lovett) coordinators, new schemes and new game plans. Miami is counting on sophomore quarterback Jacory Harris, who threw for 1,195 yards and 12 touchdowns last season splitting time with Robert Marve. The Hurricanes have two good running backs in Graig Cooper and Javarris James. They helped the Hurricanes average 179 yards on the ground in 2008. Miami has lost 11 of its last 13 games to ranked opponents. The Hurricanes are 7-18-1 against the spread in their last 26 ACC contests. This has been an underdog series, though. The ‘dog has won straight-up during five of the past six meetings, including the previous four. Miami has a large number of injuries on defense with linemen Eric Moncur and Justin Mincey out along with defensive backs Ryan Hill and Vaughn Telemaque
The Under is 13-5 in Miami’s last 18 September games.
Key Injuries - Defensive linemen Eric Moncur (groin) and Justin Mincey (knee) are out.
Defensive backs Vaughn Telemaque (shoulder) and Ryan Hill (shoulder) also are out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (Side of the Day)
Florida State (-6.5, O/U 47): The 18th-ranked Seminoles improved on their record for the first time in five years last season. Under 79-year-old Bobby Bowden, the Seminoles have the longest bowl streak going at 27 straight games. Led by All-American guard Rodney Hudson, Florida State has its entire starting offensive line back despite not having a senior starter. All together, the Seminoles have eight returning starters from an offense that ranked No. 1 in the ACC in scoring and No. 2 in total yards. Returning junior quarterback Christian Ponder threw for 159 yards and rushed for 144 in Florida State’s 41-39 win at Miami last October. Ponder was up-and-down last season ranking sixth in the conference in passing efficiency, but says he’s far more confident this year. “I think it will be a totally different year,” he said. Sophomore Jermaine Thomas is expected to be the main ball-carrier after averaging 7.0 yards last season.
The Over is 5-1 in Florida State’s last six home games.
Key Injuries - Linebacker Vince Williams (back) is out.
Safety Terrance Parks (hamstring) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 26