International Bowl: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. South Florida Bulls
The Northern Illinois Huskies and the South Florida Bulls will both be trying to pick up a win when they battle at Rogers Centre in the International Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Bulls listed as 7-point favorites versus the Huskies, while the game's total is sitting at 49.
Northern Illinois lost to Central Michigan 45-31 as a 13.5-point underdog in Week 13. That combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (69.5).
Chandler Harnish passed for 206 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions for Northern Illinois in that defeat.
South Florida was defeated 29-27 by Connecticut in Week 14 as a 7-point underdog. The 56 points sailed OVER the posted total of 47.
B.J. Daniels threw for 156 yards and ran for 88 yards and three touchdowns in that loss.
Team records:
Northern Illinois: 7-5 SU, 5-6 ATS
South Florida: 7-5 SU, 4-6 ATS
Northern Illinois most recently:
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 3-7
After playing Central Michigan are 9-1
South Florida most recently:
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 9-1
After playing Connecticut are 2-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 6 games
Northern Illinois is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Northern Illinois is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of South Florida's last 8 games
South Florida is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
South Florida is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Cotton Bowl: Mississippi Rebels vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Mississippi Rebels and the Oklahoma State Cowboys will both be trying to pick up a win when they battle at Cowboys Stadium in the Cotton Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Rebels listed as 3-point favorites versus the Cowboys, while the game's total is sitting at 50½.
Jevan Snead threw for 275 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions for Mississippi in a 41-27 loss to Mississippi State in Week 13.
The Rebels did not cover the 7.5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 48.5.
Zac Robinson passed for just 47 yards and threw one interception for Oklahoma State in a 27-0 loss to Oklahoma in Week 13.
The Cowboys did not cover the 7.5-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the day's posted total of 48.5.
Team records:
Mississippi: 8-4 SU, 5-5 ATS
Oklahoma State: 9-3 SU, 5-5-1 ATS
Mississippi most recently:
When playing in January are 2-0
When playing on turf are 9-1
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 9-1
Oklahoma State most recently:
When playing in January are 0-1
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 9-1
When playing outside the conference are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
Mississippi is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games
Oklahoma State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma State's last 7 games
Papajohns.Com Bowl: Connecticut Huskies vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
The Connecticut Huskies and the South Carolina Gamecocks will both be gunning for a victory when they meet at Legion Field in the Papajohns.Com Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Gamecocks listed as 4-point favorites versus the Huskies, while the game's total is sitting at 51½.
Zach Frazer threw for 220 yards with a pair of touchdowns as Connecticut defeated South Florida 29-27 in Week 14. Connecticut failed to cover the 7-point spread, while the 56 points sailed OVER the posted total of 47.
Andre Dixon ran for 51 yards with a pair of touchdowns in that contest.
Stephen Garcia threw for three touchdowns to lead South Carolina to a 34-17 upset win over Clemson in Week 13.
The Gamecocks covered the 3-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 44.5.
Team records:
Connecticut: 7-5 SU, 9-2 ATS
South Carolina: 7-5 SU, 7-4 ATS
Connecticut most recently:
When playing in January are 1-0
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing outside the conference are 8-2
South Carolina most recently:
When playing in January are 2-1
When playing on turf are 3-3
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Connecticut's last 5 games
Connecticut is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Carolina's last 6 games
South Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Liberty Bowl: Arkansas Razorbacks vs. East Carolina Pirates
The fans at Liberty Bowl will be treated to a game between the Arkansas Razorbacks and the East Carolina Pirates when they take their seats for the Liberty Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Razorbacks listed as 7½-point favorites versus the Pirates, while the game's total is sitting at 63½.
Ryan Mallett threw for 228 yards and a touchdown in Arkansas' 33-30 OT loss to LSU in Week 13. Arkansas was a 3.5-point underdog in that game, while the 63 points made it OVER the posted total of 53.5.
Dominique Lindsay and Giavanni Ruffin both rushed for two touchdowns each as East Carolina upset Houston 38-32 in Week 14.
The Pirates covered the 1.5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 68.
Team records:
Arkansas: 7-5 SU, 7-4 ATS
East Carolina: 9-4 SU, 6-6 ATS
Arkansas most recently:
When playing in January are 1-4
When playing on turf are 4-4
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 8-2
East Carolina most recently:
When playing in January are 0-1
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arkansas's last 5 games
Arkansas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Arkansas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
East Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of East Carolina's last 7 games
East Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Alamo Bowl: Michigan State Spartans vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Michigan State Spartans and the Texas Tech Red Raiders will both be gunning for a victory when they meet at the Alamodome in the Alamo Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Red Raiders listed as 7½-point favorites versus the Spartans, while the game's total is sitting at 59½.
Michigan State was beat up by Penn State, losing 42-14 at Spartan Stadium in Week 12.
Penn State covered as a 3-point road favorite in that contest, while the final score played OVER the 50-point total.
Texas Tech won its rivalry game with Baylor by a score of 20-13 in Week 13.
Baylor covered as a 20.5-point neutral site underdog, while the final score played UNDER the 59-point total.
Team records:
Michigan State: 6-6 SU, 5-6 ATS
Texas Tech: 8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS
Michigan State most recently:
When playing in January are 1-1
When playing on turf are 3-7
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 5-5
Texas Tech most recently:
When playing in January are 1-2
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Michigan State's last 5 games
Michigan State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas Tech's last 6 games
Texas Tech is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
N ILLINOIS (7 - 5) vs. S FLORIDA (7 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CONNECTICUT (7 - 5) vs. S CAROLINA (7 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
CONNECTICUT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
CONNECTICUT is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
OLE MISS (8 - 4) vs. OKLAHOMA ST (9 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
OLE MISS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
OLE MISS is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
ARKANSAS (7 - 5) vs. E CAROLINA (9 - 4)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MICHIGAN ST (6 - 6) vs. TEXAS TECH (8 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 25-45 ATS (-24.5 Units) in road games after playing a conference game since 1992.
MICHIGAN ST is 25-47 ATS (-26.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 104-76 ATS (+20.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 81-52 ATS (+23.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
Northern Illinois is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Northern Illinois is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
South Florida is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
South Florida is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
CONNECTICUT vs. SOUTH CAROLINA
Connecticut is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Connecticut's last 5 games
South Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Carolina's last 6 games
MISSISSIPPI vs. OKLAHOMA STATE
Mississippi is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games
Oklahoma State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma State's last 7 games
ARKANSAS vs. EAST CAROLINA
Arkansas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arkansas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
East Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
East Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
MICHIGAN STATE vs. TEXAS TECH
Michigan State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Michigan State's last 5 games
Texas Tech is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas Tech's last 6 games
Northern Illinois vs. South Florida
Northern Illinois
7-0 Under off two-game road trip
14-4 ATS off BB ATS losses
South Florida
1-5 ATS off conference game
9-2 Over as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
Connecticut vs. South Florida
Connecticut
6-0 ATS as an underdog
6-0 Over off an Over
South Carolina
0-6 ATS Away 2nd half of season
10-3 Over off SU dog win
Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma State
Ole Miss
6-0 ATS vs. non-conference
6-0 Over vs. non-conference
Oklahoma State
0-3 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
5-1 Over off bye week
Arkansas vs. East Carolina
Arkansas
5-1 ATS off ATS win
10-2 Under on neutral field
East Carolina
3-10 ATS off BB SU wins
24-11 Under off an Over
Michigan State vs. Texas Tech
Michigan State
25-47 ATS off conference loss
11-2 Over Away off BB Overs
Texas Tech
81-52 ATS on turf
6-0 Over BB conference wins
Northern Illinois
18-7 ATS non conference dogs this decade... Kill: 1-10 SU vs bowlers
South Florida
Golden: 16-3-2 ATS as dog 24 < points... MAC bowlers are 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS off a loss
Connecticut
Edsall: 23-9-1 ATS off ATS loss (20-4 L24)... 2-5 SU vs bowlers this season
South Carolina
4-0 ATS vs Big East opp... SEC bowlers are 0-5 SU and ATS vs Big East opp L10Y
Mississippi
7-1 SU and ATS bowler S/92... bowlers off loss in same bowl they won LY are 3-12 ATS
Oklahoma State
Cowboys 8-1 ATS off shutout loss... Big 12 bowlers are 3-12 ATS vs an opponent off a DD loss
Arkansas
6-3 ATS vs bowlers this season... Liberty Bowl favs 1-4 ATS L5G
East Carolina
Holtz: 22-7-1 ATS as dog, including 7-1-1 ATS vs opp off loss... CUSA bowlers are 0-3 SU and ATS vs SEC
Michigan State
Dantonio 11-2 ATS after allow 38 or more points... 0-5 ATS bowler off loss
Texas Tech
3-1 SU and 4-0 In The Stats last four games... Big 12 bowlers 1-11 ATS as favs off BB wins 11-3 ATS vs opp off SU and ATS loss... 1-3 SU and ATS bowler vs MWC
One more day of college gridiron indulgence
By Doug Upstone
All right, you made it this far, one more day of college football pageantry and you get your merit badge for taking in this many bowl games. After today's group of five, its smooth sailing with individual games the rest of the way starting next week. Today's five bowl contests take us to an unusual combination of locales throughout the day, starting in Toronto, heading south to Birmingham and Arlington, TX, followed by a trip to Memphis before ending in San Antonio. Kind of a where's Waldo adventure. It doesn't matter where they play them, as long as they do, with five more great betting opportunities on the second day of the New Year. Numbers from Sportbook.com.
International Bowl
The first three editions of this bowl north of the border weren't all that competitive, as the Big East has swept the proceedings, including the last two by an average margin of 20.0 points per game. South Florida (7-5, 4-6 ATS) hopes to extend that streak when it takes on Northern Illinois (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS). The Bulls do not bring positive momentum, having gone both 2-5 SU and ATS in their previous seven outings. Northern Illinois is 7-5 but lost all four of its games (1-2-1 ATS) versus eventual bowl-qualifying teams. In fact, head coach Jerry Kill owns a 0-6 ATS record versus winning teams while with Northern Illinois.
Reason to watch and wager- On history alone South Florida gets the nod over Northern Illinois. The MAC is in the midst of another horrible bowl campaign (0-3, 0-2-1 ATS). The MAC is 1-8 SU against BCS conferences in last nine bowl games, with just two covers. The Bulls will have speed and superior athletes all over the field, but motivation certainly comes into question. Does a Big East team care about playing an average MAC team north of the border, well, that's an easy answer. If freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels hits a few big plays against NIU, it's easy to surmise South Florida comes out on top since they are 16-1 ATS when they gain nine or more net passing yards per attempt. For the Huskies it's about getting to rushing average of 203 yards per game. If Northern Illinois can reach that threshold, they are 6-0 and 4-1 ATS this season.
Papajohns.com Bowl
Connecticut was the nation's best spread-covering team in 2009, going 10-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog. Backers of the Huskies will look to go to the well one more time, as UConn is catching points vs. South Carolina. Both teams boast 7-5 records, with the Gamecocks having played one of the toughest schedules in the country. They were 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS against fellow bowl teams. This is just the fourth time in 2009 Steve Spurrier's team will have played as favorites. South Carolina is 22-3 and 15-9 ATS as chalk in his tenure, including 1-1 in bowl games. For the Huskies, this is a fourth-ever bowl game and they are 2-1 SU and ATS.
Reason to watch and wager- If you can't decide which team to wager on in this contest by the time you are reading this, it's probably best to pass, since half of the 24 games these teams played were determined by seven or less points. South Carolina has to appeal to SEC to get out of horrific November slate that has then sliding each year or find ways to recruit better players. South Carolina has a good defense team (20.4 PPG vs. opps. scoring 28.1) and pedestrian offense averaging 21.7. The lack of a consistent passing game leaves the Gamecocks at 8-20 ATS after passing for 170 yards or less. Connecticut once again performed well in the role of the underdog and averaged a surprising 32.1 points per game this season. If QB Zach Frazier can stay as hot as Papa John's pizza (rare unpaid product placement) , UConn can rise to 10-2 ATS with two or more weeks of preparation.
Cotton Bowl
Ole Miss and Oklahoma State last met in the 2004 Cotton Bowl, with quarterback Eli Manning and the Rebels pulling out a 31-28 win in his finale. The Rebels are 8-4 (5-5 ATS) in 2009 and will be putting a seven-game, non-conference ATS winning streak on the line versus the Cowboys. They have also fared well in bowl games with 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS record in their last eight. Oklahoma State has the better record (9-3, 6-5-1 ATS) versus a tougher schedule, yet plays as the underdog. The Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS all-time as bowl game underdog. The SEC has won and covered five of last six Cotton Bowls.
Reason to watch and wager -The Cotton Bowl is in name only changing venues to Jerry Jones palatial estate. This bowl matches two teams that didn't live up to August Top 10 rankings. Oklahoma State at least had excuses not having two of its top three offensive stars for most of the season. This is a program in need of a quality win and they are just 9-18 ATS as an underdog. You hate to say it, but it was another Houston Nutt team that didn't produce with expectations. Jevan Snead wilted under the limelight and was saved in part because of the brilliant play of Dexter McCluster, who carried the offense once November arrived. The Rebels are 30-14 ATS away from home playing against a team with a winning record. Think of this contest as mouthwash, with each team trying cleanse a less than desirable season.
Liberty Bowl
East Carolina captured its second straight C-USA title by beating Houston in the league championship game 38-32. The reward of that accomplishment is another matchup with the SEC. The Pirates lost to Kentucky last season as favorites and in the 2010 edition and will be a good-sized underdog to high-scoring Arkansas. Coach Skip Holtz is 22-10 ATS as underdog and his team finished 6-1 and 5-2 ATS. The Razorbacks (7-5, 7-4 ATS) also played well down the stretch though, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their final five, while scoring 44.8 points per game. They have won just two of their past nine bowl matchups and are below average 3-6 against the spread.
Reason to watch and wager- East Carolina can pull the upset if their offensive and defensive lines can control the line of scrimmage. Coach Holtz learned from his father about the value of having linemen that can move the line of scrimmage either way. The Pirates can steal a victory if they move the chains against an Arkansas defense that yielded over 400 yards and have its talented front four bring consistent pressure QB Ryan Mallett. ECU's pass defense is vulnerable in conceding 260 yards and without pocket pressure, they fall to 0-7 ATS in last seven non-conference games. Coach Bobby Petrino in an offensive mastermind and puts together great game plans to take advantage of opponent's weakness. Expect him to do more of the same and hope his defense can make enough negative plays to influence the outcome of the game. The Razorbacks have covered six of last seven against teams with winning records.
Alamo Bowl
The Alamo Bowl game has been one of the few lately that Big Ten fans can actually look forward to. Their teams are 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS since 1995. Big Ten squads showcase a 20-9-1 ATS record in their last 30 bowl games as an underdog of four points or more, which is the case in San Antonio. For this year's contest, Michigan State (6-6, 4-6-1 ATS) has a poorer record than Texas Tech's 8-4 mark, yet has the edge in several offensive categories, including pass yards per attempt. The Red Raiders (6-5 ATS) have not covered their last four bowl games and the Big 12 is 4-11 ATS in Alamo Bowl appearances.
Reason to watch and wager- Unfortunately the main story line on the 15th bowl game in three days will have little to do with football. The whole Mike Leach episode will play out over time, but for this contest it creates an opportunity for Michigan State. It would seem some division would occur within the Red Raiders locker room taking away focus. Their offense while incredibly potent is based on timing, which can be affected by long layoff. Texas Tech offense moves a little quicker on the carpet and they are 45-28 ATS in games played on turf. Michigan State has a wretched secondary, surrendering 223 yards or more in eight of the 12 contests. This means they are wholly dependent on squeezing the opposing QB in the pocket. The Spartans were erratic offense, but were much better when they had offensive balance running the ball, which is not a sure thing against a decent Texas Tech defense. Michigan State is 3-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and covered just one contest in the second half of the season. This matchup looks like a Red Raiders rout, it all depends on their state of mind with shocking developments.
What Bettors Need To Know: International Bowl
By RICKY DIMON
Northern Illinois Huskies vs. South Florida Bulls (-6.5, 50)
Northern Illinois and South Florida will be meeting for the third time in history and first time in seven years when they square off in the fourth annual International Bowl.
The Huskies (7-5, 6-6 ATS) are in the midst of a two-game losing streak after road setbacks against Ohio and Central Michigan.
The Bulls (7-5, 5-6 ATS), making a long trip north from Tampa to Toronto, are also riding a two-game losing streak courtesy of Miami and Connecticut. They have lost five of seven since starting the season 5-0.
Line movements
South Florida opened as a 6-point favorite at most betting sites and the Bulls have since been bumped to 6.5 and 7-point favorites at some shops. The total has held relatively steady in a one-point range between 49 and 50.
Infirmary report
Physical problems for Northern Illinois are few and far between heading into Saturday’s clash. Everyone has been cleared to play, including safety Mike Sobol (concussion), who is sixth on the team with 49 total tackles and tied for second with two forced fumbles.
South Florida is facing some issues on the offensive line, as juniors Jake Sims (concussion) and Zach Hermann (neck) are not expected to play. Leading tackler Kion Wilson, who missed the regular season finale against Connecticut with an ankle injury, has returned to practice and will start at linebacker.
Fundamental football
The Huskies clearly live by the well-known mantra that in order to win games, you have to run the ball, stop the run and take care of the football.
They boast the No. 1 rushing offense in the MAC, gaining 202.4 yards per contest. The Huskies are second in rushing defense among MAC teams, allowing just 119 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry.
Northern Illinois should have an obvious game-plan against a South Florida defense that ranks first in the Big East against the pass (thanks mostly to a pass-rush led by Jason Pierre-Paul and George Selvie), but is giving up 139.6 rushing yards per game.
Furthermore, the Huskies have turned the ball over only 14 times, tied for first in the MAC. They have 22 takeaways, good for a plus-8 turnover margin that puts them second in their conference.
The Bulls do not run the football quite like Northern Illinois, but they are far more prolific on the ground than through the air. Running backs B.J. Daniels and Moise Plancher have combined for 1368 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Bowl buzz
Both coaches—Jerry Kill of Northern Illinois and South Florida’s Jim Leavitt—are excited to be heading north and crossing the border.
“We are so young, one of the youngest teams in the MAC,” Kill noted. “Our best years are ahead of us. We’re still getting better, and the bowl game is going to be a big help to us. You get the extra practice, the extra game. It’s a great experience, plus it’s an opportunity for our players to visit another country.”
For the Bulls, the International Bowl is the last bowl with Big East tie-ins (other than the BCS affiliation) in which they have never participated.
“Hopefully that one is next,” Leavitt said of a BCS berth. "I'm excited about Toronto. We've never been there. This is big stuff. We get to go and play indoors. I think it's pretty neat.”
Trending topics
Both the Huskies and the Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Likewise, they have been disappointing against tough competition. Northern Illinois is 0-7 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records, while South Florida 5-13 ATS in its last 18 against teams with winning records.
South Florida (7-4 O/U) has been a relatively strong over play this season, while Northern Illinois (6-6 O/U) has not.
The under is 5-1 in the Huskies’ last six non-conference games and 4-0 in the Bulls’ last four none-conference affairs. The over, however, is 6-2 in South Florida’s last eight games overall.
What Bettors Need To Know: Cotton Bowl
By SCOTT COOLEY
Mississippi Rebels vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (+3, 50.5)
The House that Jerry Built welcomed its first college football and basketball games since opening in May. Now, Cowboys Stadium will serve host to its first Cotton Bowl when the Ole Miss Rebels and Oklahoma State Cowboys meet in Arlington.
Temperatures in North Texas are expected to be mild on Friday, but if inclement weather should rear its ugly head the $1.3 billion dollar palace will simply close its retractable roof.
Firing line
The opening spread of -3 in favor of Ole Miss has remained dormant, although, some 3.5s have surfaced on a few boards. The total has not been volatile either, sitting at the 50.5 mark it was released at.
The skinny
This is a tale of two teams that did not live up to expectations in 2009. Both were ranked inside the preseason Top 10 and were trendy sleeper picks to win their conferences, but neither finished among the Top 20 teams in the country.
The Rebels climbed to the No. 4 ranking in the polls after two weeks of play, but were humbled in their first conference road game against South Carolina and never completely bounced back. Additional losses to Alabama, Auburn and Mississippi State resulted in Houston Nutt’s squad holding an average 8-4 overall record and subpar 4-4 conference mark.
“Just to be in bowl game is big. But now to be the first team to play in this stadium is an honor,” defensive end Kentrell Lockett told reporters. “So the motivation is to be here, to win another ballgame against a good team and to get out that previous bad taste in our mouths.”
All-America wideout Dez Bryant was only available for the first three games of the season before being suspended by the NCAA, but the Cowboys’ national championship hopes died in Week 2 following a home loss to Houston.
Mike Gundy must have given his team an “I’m a man!” speech after that game because Oklahoma State rattled off five straight wins before getting blown out by Texas at home. The Cowboys still had a chance to play in a BCS game, but got shutout by rival Oklahoma in the regular season finale.
The only time these two teams have met was in the 2004 Cotton Bowl when Eli Manning guided the Rebs to a 31-28 victory over the Cowboys as 3-point favorites.
Dexter
Jevan Snead threw 20 touchdowns this season but offset that with 17 interceptions in what became a sophomore slump of a year for the dual-threat signal-caller. Ole Miss discovered a replacement offensive threat in all-purpose back Dexter McCluster.
McCluster might be the most electric player in college football and if he’s not, he certainly gives C.J. Spiller and the Super Rodgers Bros. at Oregon State a run for their money. McCluster racked up 985 rushing and 475 receiving yards with nine touchdowns in 11 games this season.
"[McCluster] is a very talented guy,” OSU defensive coordinator Bill Young told the media. “He's got excellent speed and he has that ability to evade the tackle. He can jump sideways as fast as he can move forward. He's a lot stronger running the football than you would think with his size."
The senior will face a stingy OK State run defense that ranks sixth in the country, surrendering 87.7 ypg. McCluster was held to 82 yards rushing in the Egg Bowl versus Mississippi State, but averaged 205.3 yards on the ground in the three games prior.
Bucking the trends
The Cotton Bowl has matched up the SEC against the Big 12 for the last 11 years and the SEC has won five of last six meetings.
Oklahoma State has appeared in three straight bowls, going 2-1 straight up and ATS during that stretch. The Cowboys are 12-7 all-time in postseason play.
Ole Miss won the Cotton Bowl last season over Texas Tech as 3.5-point underdogs. The Rebels have won seven of their last eight bowl appearances and gone 6-1-1 ATS during that span.
What Bettors Need To Know: Papa Johns Bowl
By TERRY MASSEY
Connecticut Huskies vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (-4.5, 51.5)
Pizza delivery never tasted so bad to college kids than the two teams involved in this lower-tier bowl. Both the Gamecocks and Huskies had their hearts set on filet mignon and possible BCS bowl berths until suffering a disappointing stretch of setbacks in the second half of the season.
South Carolina was 6-2 with key conference wins over then-No. 4 Ole Miss, Kentucky and Vanderbilt heading into the meat of its SEC schedule. But three consecutive double-digit losses (Tennessee, Arkansas and Florida) drastically altered their plans from fine dining to fast food.
For Connecticut, it was a tragedy off the field that damaged their spirits and bowl plans. After star cornerback Jaspar Howard was stabbed to death in a fight the night after a win over Louisville, the Huskies were 4-2 heading into a crucial conference stretch.
They lost to West Virginia, Rutgers and then Cincinnati by a combined total of 10 points and their aspirations of winning the Big East title were gone by the wayside.
But there is a happy ending for both teams. UConn rallied to win its final three games, including an upset victory at Notre Dame and a win over South Florida with a last-second field goal. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks snapped a losing streak against in-state rival Clemson to save some face.
That's not to say both teams are thrilled to be going to the Papa John's Bowl, but late-night pizza beats going to bed hungry even if it is just a booty call.
Line movement
South Carolina opened as a 7-point favorite with a total of 53 and both of those numbers dropped dramatically right out of the box.
There may have been some emotional sentiment behind the early money as the Huskies' rally around Howard was played up big-time in the media during their closing three-game win streak, but the betting public obviously has confidence in UConn.
The Gamecocks are currently a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 51.5.
Injury report
The Huskies lost starting quarterback Cody Endres for the season in the Rutgers game, but backup Zach Frazer has led them to three straight wins. Fraser doesn't have the arm of Endres and has thrown just as many interceptions as touchdowns (9). Other than Endres and Howard, the Huskies haven't lost any key players since the first half of the season.
South Carolina's injury report doesn't include any big names, only big guys. Three starting offensive linemen, guards Kevin Young (ankle) and Terrence Campbell (neck) and tackle Quinton Richardson (shoulder) are banged up heading into the game and only Young has a chance to play.
The Gamecocks also lost starting tackle Travian Robertson for the year earlier in the season.
Weather or not
The forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-40s at kickoff. There is a 10 percent chance of rain.
Do what you do
Both teams bring productive, balanced offensive attacks into the game but have opposite preferences when given the choice.
For UConn's Randy Edsell, it's the ground game. He has a pair of running backs who have combined for more than 2,100 yards and Andre Dixon is just 12 yards shy of joining Jordan Todman to form the first 1,000-yard teammate tandem since Reggie Bush and LenDale White at Southern California.
They will need to set the table for Frazer, who has yet to find his rhythm in the passing game. Senior wideout Marcus Easley has 44 catches for 844 yards and six TDs.
On the other sideline, South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier still hasn't seen a pass play he doesn't like. Unfortunately for him, quarterback Steven Garcia has only recently developed into the kind of QB that Spurrier has always needed to unleash his Cock'n'Fire offense.
Garcia threw for more than 2,700 yards this season (second highest in the SEC) with 17 TDs and nine picks. He has found a new weapon in freshman wideout Alshon Jeffery, who has 43 catches for 735 yards and six TDs after emerging late in the year.
South Carolina finished dead last in the SEC in rushing with 1,860 yards, and many of those yards came from Garcia scrambling out of the pocket. The Gamecocks like to use the pass to set up the run.
Defensive differences
UConn's offense holds a slight edge over South Carolina, averaging almost 400 yards per game and ranking 47th nationally to the Gamecocks' No. 76 rating. But South Carolina more than makes up the 40-yard-per-game difference on the other side of the ball as the nation's No. 15 ranked defense.
The Gamecocks have some real playmakers on defense, led by senior linebacker Eric Norwood, who was just named to the AP All-American Team. Also watch out for safety Stephon Gilmore, who is a heavy hitter in run support and can go step-for-step with the speediest receiver on the field.
The Gamecocks are allowing a little more than 300 yards and 20 points per game. Fortunately for the Huskies, South Carolina is strongest against the pass, ranking 12th nationally, but only 46th against the run - UConn's preferred mode of transportation.
South Carolina's offense gets a similar edge in this matchup. UConn is ranked 94th nationally against the pass, possibly allowing Spurrier to fly the friendly skies. The Huskies are 48th nationally against the run while the Gamecocks finished dead last in the SEC in rushing yardage.
That means both offenses should be able to do what they do best against the defenses, but neither should have the balance to dominate the game.
Odds and trends
On paper, UConn looks like a bettor's dream after going 10-2 ATS on the season and seeing its past seven games go over the total. Too bad they all can't be so predictable.
That's certainly not the case for the Gamecocks, who went 5-7 ATS and 6-6 against the total, an ideal coin-toss team.
But those records really can be rendered meaningless in a bowl, when any momentum a team had coming in has been broken by a long layoff and the bookmakers and betting public have had time to sniff out the trends so that they are reflected in the line.
The best gage may be strength of schedule, where SEC teams almost always get the edge. South Carolina has covered spreads against the likes of Alabama, Florida, Clemson and Ole Miss while failing to deliver on inflated lines against lesser teams. UConn is 7-2 ATS against teams with winning records, including covers against Cincinnati, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame.
Many of the Huskies' final scores have looked more like hoops contests, hitting the over with regularity and with room to spare. UConn combined to almost double the total with Syracuse (87 points, 44 total) and Cincinnati (92 points, 51 total) and it and Notre Dame eclipsed a big number (63 points, 57.5 total). So this bowl's total of 51.5 certainly shouldn't scare anyone away.
What Bettors Need To Know: Liberty Bowl
By ADAM THOMPSON
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. East Carolina Pirates (-7.5, 63.5)
Arkansas possesses one of the productive and explosive offenses anywhere, but its defense allows nearly as many big plays down the field.
East Carolina uses a conservative style to move the chains and control the clock.
One style will win out over the other when the two teams face off in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tenn.
Line movement
The opening line of 8 has moved down to 7.5 on most boards. The total of 63.5 hasn’t moved.
Suspensions and injuries
Three Arkansas defensive players have been suspended for the game for leaving the team's hotel in Memphis after curfew. Two players were starters while the third played in five games this season. Senior linebacker Wendel Davis could be the biggest loss after finishing second on the team with 79 tackles while senior safety Matt Harris recorded 71 tackles.
Freshman defensive tackle D.D. Jones was injured during a scrimmage in late December and will miss the game with a high-ankle sprain.
The Razorbacks finished ranked 90th in total defense (401.8 ypg) this season and losing three starters can only compound problems.
Arkansas air attack
Arkansas had the SEC’s most productive offense – more than Florida, Alabama or LSU – averaging 303 yards passing per game and another 136 rushing.
It all revolves around sophomore quarterback Ryan Mallett, who passed for 3,422 yards, 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Weapons are aplenty, with three receivers catching 31 passes or more. There’s not much of a rushing attack to complement Mallett, though a back-by-committee did finish with four different rushers gaining 100 yards or more apiece.
In other words, Arkansas will keep throwing until ECU gives the Razorbacks a reason not to.
Softening the Mallett
If East Carolina can slow Mallett, it has a real shot. The fact that the Pirates beat pass-happy Houston 38-32 in the Conference USA championship game (Houston threw for 527 yards) would seem to show it is possible.
The Pirates allowed more than 400 yards per game this season, including 262 through the air. But they also allowed just 22.1 points per game, the definition of a “bend but don’t break” unit.
ECU has forced a turnover in 28 straight games and had more than 30 of them this season. Nine different players had interceptions for the Pirates.
The team’s turnover success is predicated on the Pirates’ ability to get to the quarterback. All-conference linemen C.J. Wilson and Linval Joseph have led a charge that’s piled up 20 sacks in its last eight games.
Mallett, a 6-foot-7, 240-pound hulk of a man, was brought down on average twice per game this season.
Tit for tat
Few teams could slow Arkansas’ offense this season, but in turn, the Razorbacks struggled to stop anyone. They were the SEC’s worst team against the pass (251.8) and in overall yards (401.8) and weren’t much better against the rush (150.1).
ECU runs to set up the pass and is balanced overall. Quarterback Pat Pinkney threw for 2,738 yards but only 14 TDs to 10 INTs. His offensive line has done a great job of protecting the senior, allowing only one sack in the team’s last seven games.
In the conservative pass attack of coach Skip Holtz, Pinkney actually completed 32 more passes than Mallett (242 to 210) but threw for nearly 700 fewer yards.
If Arkansas builds a sizeable lead in the first half, ECU may be forced to come out of its comfort zone and throw the ball downfield.
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The under is 6-0 in Arkansas’ last six bowl games.
The over is 4-1 in East Carolina’s last five bowl games.
The over is 9-2 in last the 11 games Arkansas is favored.
East Carolina is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games
What Bettors Need To Know: Alamo Bowl
By RICKY DIMON
Michigan State Spartans vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5, 59.5)
This year’s Alamo Bowl will feature two teams in turmoil as Michigan State and Texas Tech are set to do battle in San Antonio.
While both squads are dealing with serious off-the-field issues, things have not exactly been pretty on the field, especially for Michigan State. The Spartans (6-6, 4-6-1 ATS) just barely qualified for postseason play, have lost three of their last five and are coming off a 42-14 blowout loss to Penn State.
The Red Raiders (8-4, 6-5 ATS) have won two straight, including a 41-13 rout of Oklahoma, but will be playing their bowl game without head coach Mike Leach.
Line movements
Texas Tech opened as a 7-point favorite at most betting sites and that spread was generally on the rise until recently resurfacing at 7. The Red Raiders have been favored by as many as 8.5 points at times. The total opened at 60.5 and has rarely wavered outside of a one-point range with 59.5 being the low mark.
Suspended
It was announced on Dec. 1 that Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio had suspended eight players for the bowl game, stemming from their participation in a dorm-room brawl.
Three of the Spartans were starters: Receivers Mark Dell (26 catches, 449 yards, 1 TD) and B.J. Cunningham (48 catches, 641 yards, 4 TDs) and defensive back Chris L. Rucker (fourth on the team with 58 tackles and first with seven pass breakups).
Canned
While Michigan State will be shorthanded on the field, Texas Tech will be one short on the sideline. Missing from the Alamo Bowl will be Leach, who was fired on Wednesday.
A statement from the university said that Leach has been “terminated with cause effective immediately.”
While the firing will do little to end the controversy in Lubbock, it at least gives some finality to the question over Leach’s bowl-game status. Leach had initially been suspended as a result of accusations of ill treatment levied by player Adam James, who has been suffering from post-concussion symptoms.
Leach wraps up his career at Texas Tech with an 84-43 record. The Red Raiders earned a winning record in all 10 of Leach’s seasons, including an 11-2 campaign in 2008. Defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill will lead the team in the Alamo Bowl. McNeill has served 24 seasons at the college level but never as a head coach.
“We have a team of guys who have been through adversity most of the year,” said McNeill. “We’ve had some things where most teams would have folded. So this team has been strong from the core.”
If there is any good news for the Spartans and Red Raiders, it is that neither team is dealing with any recent injury problems that would have ameliorated their already-colossal issues.
Back to the game at hand
It’s hard to tell from the current media circus, but a football game between Michigan State and Texas Tech will actually be played.
The Spartans face a scary matchup when they take the field – a matchup made even scarier due to Rucker’s absence. Michigan State is last in the Big Ten in passing defense, allowing 251.6 yards per contest while Texas Tech is dominating the Big 12 in passing offense with 380.7 yards per game.
Junior quarterback Taylor Potts has thrown 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 10 games for the Red Raiders.
Michigan State also leads its conference in passing offense (271.2 average) and sophomore quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown 18 touchdowns to just seven interceptions.
Trending topics
The Spartans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five against the Big 12.
The Red Raiders are 1-6 in their last seven games on grass and 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last four against the Big Ten.
Michigan State (7-4 O/U) has been a relatively strong over play this season while the under has been generally been the way to go with Texas Tech (4-7 O/U).
The over is 4-0 in the Spartans’ last four games overall. The under is 4-0 is in the Red Raiders’ last four games overall, but the over is 4-1 in their last five bowl appearances.
International Bowl Preview
By Chris David
The college football bowl season heads to Toronto, Canada on Saturday for the International Bowl. This year’s matchup pits Northern Illinois (7-5 straight up, 5-6 against the spread) against South Florida (7-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) on the indoor surface. ESPN2 will air national coverage of this game at 12:00 p.m. EST.
Head coach Jim Leavitt and the Bulls joined the Big East five years ago and to their credit, the team has made a postseason trip each season. The school owns a 2-2 all-time mark, which includes a 41-14 blowout victory over Memphis in last year’s St. Petersburg Bowl.
USF will be looking to improve its bowl record against the Huskies and the oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com believe the school has a chance to do so. The Bulls have been made seven-point favorites, which is a little higher than the opening line of six.
Similar to past seasons, the Bulls started out with five straight wins. Then reality set in and the team closed with a 2-5 run albeit without the duties of USF quarterback Matt Grothe. After the gunslinger went down with a season-ending knee injury, backup B.J. Daniels took over. Daniels (53%, 9 INTs) isn’t known for his passing ability, but he’s shown that he can run (798 yards, 9 TDs) the rock.
A large reason for USF’s success this season was its defense, which gave up 21 PPG and 328 YPG, but it also cost the team in its losses (33.2 PPG). If you haven’t heard of defensive end George Selvie, you’ll probably see the NFL prospect highlighted frequently in this matchup. He helped the front four tally 24 sacks in 12 games as a unit.
Selive and the Bulls’ defense might not get a chance to improve those numbers in this game because Northern Illinois doesn’t like to chuck the football. The Huskies are a run-first team and a good one to boot. The offense is averaging 202 rushing yards per game, which was ranked first in the MAC and 17th nationally. The solid ground game helped the offense average 30.8 PPG on the season. The combination of Chad Spann (945 yards, 19 TDs) and Me’co Brown (645 yards, 4 TDs) will look to pound the rock against USF. If that pair can’t move the chains, then the pressure will mount on QB Chandler Harnish (1,540 yards, 11 TDs), who doesn’t seem comfortable in the pocket.
NIU led the MAC in total defense (324 YPG) and was second in scoring defense (21.1 PPG). The unit actually played well in non-conference tests against Wisconsin (20-28) and Purdue (28-21) but they closed the season on a bad note. The Huskies lost their final two games and the defense was torched for 38 and 45 points by Ohio and Central Michigan respectively.
South Florida didn’t close the season well either, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. On the road this year, the Bulls went 3-3 both SU and ATS. Northern Illinois was 2-4 both SU and ATS outside of DeKalb.
This will be the fourth installment of the International Bowl and the Big East has won all three of the first battles. Two of the three were decided by double digits and the ‘over’ cashed in all of the contests.
Northern Illinois has gone 2-2 as well in its school’s bowl history but it has lost its last two appearances. Last year, the Huskies were stifled 17-10 by Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl.
The Huskies are not only playing for themselves but for the MAC as a whole, which has been absolutely pathetic in recent bowl meetings. Including this year, the conference is 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS in its last 15 bowl games.
To the MAC’s defense, they’ve been a little more competitive this year and could easily be 3-0. Ohio came up short against Marshall (17-21), Temple collapsed in the second half to UCLA (21-30) and Bowling Green was outdone by Idaho (42-43) in the final seconds.
If Northern Illinois doesn’t reverse the trend, make a note that Central Michigan plays Troy in the GMAC bowl next Wednesday.
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Saturday's SEC Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
**Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma State**
Fitting matchup in the Cotton Bowl for a pair of schools who had solid seasons but fell quite shy of the lofty expectations they carried into 2009. Most preseason polls and publications had the Rebels and Cowboys in the top 10. Again, that’s not a regular thing for these schools, so despite coming up short of those standards, both can feel good about the year with a victory in the Cotton Bowl. On the other hand, the loser definitely chalks up the season as a disappointment.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Ole Miss (8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 51. As of Friday night, most spots are listing the Rebels as three-point favorites with a total of 50½. Bettors can back the Cowboys on the money line for a plus-130 return (risk $100 to win $130).
Oklahoma State (9-3 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) saw its three-game winning streak halted in a 27-0 loss at Oklahoma in the Bedlam Game in Norman. The Cowboys were absolutely dominated, mustering just six first downs and 109 total yards of offense. Zac Robinson connected on just 10-of-23 passes for 47 yards and a 0/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Houston Nutt’s squad has a 2-4 spread record in six single-digit ‘chalk’ spots.
Mike Gundy’s team is 0-2 both SU and ATS in a pair of underdog spots.
Speaking of disappointing campaigns, Jevan Snead endured one. He missed top target Mike Wallace, who enjoyed an excellent rookie season for the Steelers. Most of all, Snead was a turnover-machine, throwing 17 interceptions. On the bright side, Nutt knows his starting QB will be coming back for his senior year rather than leaving early for the NFL Draft. That notion, laughable at this point, was a serious possibility when Snead was a darkhorse Heisman candidate back in August.
Zac Robinson also had a disappointing year, but it wasn’t necessarily his fault. For starters, his favorite wideout, All-American Dez Bryant, who was suspended after pulling down 17 receptions for 323 yards and four touchdowns after three games. Robinson didn’t live up to the preseason hype, posting a 14/7 TD-INT ratio.
These schools met in the 2004 Cotton Bowl with Ole Miss collecting a 31-28 win as a three-point favorite. Eli Manning threw a pair of TD passes in his last collegiate performance.
The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for OSU. Totals have been a wash for the Rebels (6-6).
Fox will have the telecast at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.
**South Carolina vs. Connecticut**
The Big East will face the SEC at this year’s Papa John’s Bowl at Legion Field in Birmingham. LVSC opened South Carolina (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 51. As of Friday, most betting shops had adjusted the Gamecocks to four-point ‘chalk’ with the total still at 51. Bettors can take the Huskies to win outright for a plus-160 return (risk $100 to win $160)
UConn (7-5 SU, 10-2 ATS) won three straight to close the regular season, compiling a 3-1 spread record in its last four outings. The Huskies failed to cover but prevailed in a 29-27 victory over South Florida as 7½-point home favorites.
Steve Spurrier’s team snapped a three-game losing streak in its regular-season finale by thumping in-state rival Clemson 34-17 as a 3 ½-point home underdog. Stephen Garcia threw for three TD passes and Weslye Saunders caught a pair of TD grabs.
South Carolina was only a single-digit favorite once in 2009, failing to cover the spread in a 28-26 win over Kentucky as a nine-point home favorite.
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Randy Edsall’s squad has a dynamite 6-0 spread record in six games as an underdog this season.
South Carolina sophomore QB Stephen Garcia showed a lot of promise this year, throwing for 2,733 yards while producing a 17/9 TD-INT ratio.
The ‘over’ has hit in seven straight games for UConn and is 9-3 overall. Totals have been a wash for South Carolina (6-6).
Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**East Carolina vs. Arkansas**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Arkansas (SU, ATS) as a 10-point favorite with a total of 60. As of Friday, most books are listing the Razorbacks as 7 ½-point ‘chalk.’ Gamblers can take the Pirates to win outright for a plus-250 payout (risk $100 to win $250).
East Carolina (9-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) won four in a row to close the regular season, including a 38-32 win over Houston in the C-USA title game. The Pirates won outright as one-point underdogs. Patrick Pinkney threw for 262 yards and one TD.
Arkansas saw its four-game winning streak snapped in a heartbreaking loss at LSU in the regular-season finale. Although the Hogs lost 33-30 against the Tigers in Baton Rouge, they hooked up their backers as 3½-point road underdogs.
Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett had an outstanding season after transferring from Michigan. He threw for 3,422 yards and 29 touchdowns with only seven interceptions.
ECU has been an underdog five times this year, compiling a 2-3 spread ledger.
The ‘over’ is 6-2 in ECU’s last eight games, 7-5 overall. The ‘over’ is on a 3-0 run for the Hogs and is 6-5 overall.
ESPN will provide television coverage at 5:30 p.m. Eastern.
Alamo Bowl Preview
By Judd Hall
When the bowl matchups came out just after the regular season ended in college football, the Alamo Bowl tilt between Michigan State (6-6 straight up, 4-6-1 against the spread) and Texas Tech (8-4 SU, 7-4 ATS) looked like it could be one of the more intriguing showcases. Now the game that ESPN has in store for us at 9:00 p.m. EST appears to be a mix of “Jerry Springer” and “Young and the Restless.”
Let’s start with the kids from East Lansing and their dalliances after a disappointing 2009 campaign came to a close.
After losing 42-14 to Penn State in the season finale, a group of Spartans got into a fight with some fraternity guys at a local nightclub. The following evening, several players left the end-of-year banquet to go dole out some thug justice against those same frat boys. There have been 11 players that have so far been dealt with by head coach Mark Dantonio. Running back Glenn Winston and safety Roderick Jenrette were booted out of the program for good.
The bigger fallout from that incident for Michigan State is the loss of wide receivers B.J. Cunningham and Mark Dell. This duo is the Spartans’ Nos. 1 and 2 receivers, and accounted for 1,090 yards and five scores. That will no doubt hurt a passing attack that was the best in the Big Ten with 271.2 yards per game. Plus, they’ll be matching up a Red Raider defense that second only to Pittsburgh nationally with 39.0 sacks for the season. That will make quarterback Kirk Cousins’ job all the more difficult, which is saying something for a guy that has a passer rating of 145.2 to rank 22nd nationally.
If their passing game can’t get going, then the Spartans will have to rely on their defense to stay in this contest. That could prove problematic given how they’ve performed recently. Over the last three games, MSU has given up 1,541 total yards over its last three Big Ten opponents. And they’ve surrendered 251.6 passing YPG this season to rank 103rd in the nation.
Originally, Texas Tech was the only team in San Antonio that wasn’t going to have any distractions heading into the game. All that changed just a few days ago for the boys from Lubbock.
Head coach Mike Leach was suspended by the school for the game as it investigated allegations of mistreating a player that was diagnosed with a concussion. It turns out that the player in question was wide out Adam James. He also happens to be the son of former SMU/NFL star and ESPN talking head, Craig James.
I’m sure we all know by now that Leach was fired just before he went into an injunction hearing that could have allowed him to coach the game. While the termination has given sports radio jocks a chance to fill up their show, what has it done for handicapping the match itself?
“What does this mean from a sports betting standpoint? As professional sports bettors and handicappers we tend to focus on the facts,” says VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Scott Pritchard. “It’s tricky because football is a game of emotion. Adam James is a prima donna; these are not my words, but those of his own teammates. This will be a fun game to watch because of all the drama surrounding it. Leach is one hell of a coach but unfortunately his ego got in the way. Still, going on talent alone, you’d have to side with the Red Raiders.”
Pritchard is right on the talent factor. Texas Tech was second only to Houston in passing offense with 380.7 YPG. And the odds are good that we’ll be seeing Taylor Potts for the duration of this postseason battle. The junior QB has had an inconsistent year overall, but did close out the year on a high note. Potts completed 65 percent of his passes for 657 yards and four touchdowns in the last two starts against Oklahoma and Baylor – both wins, mind you.
This year, the Red Raiders do have a little better running game than we’re used to seeing thanks to Baron Batch. The junior running back has picked up 784 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2009. That’s the most anyone has gained on the ground since Shannon Woods picked up 926 yards and 10 scores in 2006.
Defensively, Texas Tech has been respectable under Ruffin McNeill (who will be the head coach for this game), giving up 348.8 YPG and 21.8 points per game. What has to be a concern to McNeill is the fact that his stopping unit is getting great pressure on the quarterback, but has yet to see that transform into turnovers. Texas Tech’s secondary has picked up only eight interceptions.
You’d think that all of the drama might have fiddled with the lines from the oddsmakers. The reality shows just the opposite. Most sportsbooks opened this line with the Red Raiders as 7½-point favorites with a total of 60 ½. It was bought up to eight at some locations near Christmas, but shot down to 7½ again with the Leach termination. As of New Year’s Day, Texas Tech has settled down to a seven-point “chalk” and the total has moved to 59½.
At first blush, the Red Raiders would seem to be the smart play here. The only problem with that is the fact that they are 3-2 SU in their last five bowl games, but just 1-4 ATS. Bettors taking the ‘over’ have been pleased as that has gone 4-1 in that time.
Michigan State isn’t much better, mind you, since they’re only 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS in its past eight postseason fixtures.
An ‘over’ wager would make sense since that has gone 14-8 in the last five years for the Spartans when posted as underdogs. MSU happened to go 4-18 SU and 9-13 ATS in that stretch as well.
Texas Tech has gone an impressive 33-9 SU as a favorite over the past five seasons. Yet they were merely so-so when backed at the counter for a 20-22 ATS record.
The Red Raiders have also failed to do anything to get a little street cred against the Big Ten, as evidenced by a 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS mark in the last four meetings.
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Northern Illinois (7-5, 5-6 ATS) vs. South Florida (7-5, 4-6 ATS)
South Florida is going bowling for the fifth straight season and will take on Mid-American Conference opponent Northern Illinois at the Rogers Centre north of the border.
The Huskies became bowl-eligible by mid-November after a four-game winning streak that left them at 7-3 through 10 games. However, Northern Illinois stumbled to the finish line, losing at Ohio (38-31 as a 1½-point underdog) and at Central Michigan (45-31 as a 13½-point pup) – the two teams that represented the MAC in its league championship game. The Huskies failed to cover in six of their final nine games, including the last three in a row.
South Florida jumped out to a 5-0 start (3-0 ATS in lined games) for the third straight year, including a shocking 17-7 upset win at Florida State. But the Bulls, who lost third-year starting QB Matt Grothe to a season-ending injury in Week 3, dropped five of their final seven contests both SU and ATS and were thus relegated to a lesser bowl.
These teams met in consecutive seasons in 2001 and 2002, and they split the two contests, with South Florida winning the most recent matchup 37-6 as a seven-point chalk.
All four of the Bulls’ bowl appearances have come under coach Jim Leavitt, and they’ve split the first four both SU and ATS. Last year, USF crushed Memphis in the St. Petersburg Bowl 41-14 as an 11½-point chalk, one year after getting hammered by Oregon in the Sun Bowl (56-21 as a six-point favorite).
Northern Illinois has qualified for consecutive bowl games for the first time in school history, and the Huskies are in the postseason for the fourth time in the last six years, going 2-2 SU and ATS. Last year, they fell to Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl 17-10 as a 1½-point underdog.
The Big East has won all three International Bowl games against the MAC (2-1 ATS).
The Huskies scored 26 points or more in 10 of their final 11 games, including the last six games in a row when they averaged 32 ppg. For the season, NIU put up 30.8 points and 354.1 total yards per game, including a whopping 202.4 rushing ypg. The defense surrendered just 21.2 points and 323.6 yards per contest (119 rushing ypg).
With Grothe sidelined, the South Florida offense was in the hands of redshirt freshman B.J. Daniels, who was wildly inconsistent in completing just 52.7 percent of his throws for 1,766 yards, 12 TDs and nine INTs. Daniels did do a lot of damage on the ground with 798 rushing yards and nine TDs. During their 2-5 SU and ATS slump to close the regular season, USF scored 17 points or less four times, and the defense yielded an average of 29.6 ppg after holding the first five opponents to a total of 47 points (9.4 per game).
Northern Illinois is in ATS funks of 2-5 overall, 0-4 at neutral sites and 0-7 versus teams with a winning record, but the Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five when catching between 3½ to 10 points. The Bulls, in addition to failing to cover in five of their last seven overall, are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 against winning teams.
The under is on runs of 5-0 for the Huskies in non-conference play, 15-7-1 for the Huskies as an underdog and 4-0 for South Florida in non-Big East games. Conversely, the Bulls have topped the total in six of eight overall, four in a row after a SU defeat and eight of nine when favored by 3½ to 10 points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
UConn (7-5, 9-2 ATS) vs. South Carolina (7-5, 7-4 ATS)
Two teams that closed the regular season going in opposite directions meet up at Legion Field, where the Huskies shoot for their fourth straight victory in a battle with struggling South Carolina.
UConn needed to sweep its final three games to qualify for its third straight bowl game, and it accomplished the task with narrow wins over Norte Dame (33-30 in overtime as a six-point ‘dog) and South Florida (29-27 as a 7½-point home chalk) sandwiched around a 56-31 home rout of Syracuse as a 13 -point favorite. Prior to the 3-0 run, the Huskies had dropped three in a row by a total of 10 points. In fact, their five losses this year were by a total of five points.
The Gamecocks put the skids on a three-game losing streak with a season-ending 34-17 rout of then-No. 15 Clemson on Nov. 28, prevailing as a three-point home underdog. Steve Spurrier’s squad jumped out to a 5-1 start before losing four of its last six. Also, South Carolina covered in its first four games, then went in a 1-4 ATS funk in lined games before cashing in its final two.
This is the first meeting between these schools.
UConn throttled Buffalo 38-20 as a seven-point favorite in last year’s International Bowl, improving to 2-1 SU and ATS in bowl games under coach Randy Edsall. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks were completely noncompetitive in last year’s 31-10 Outback Bowl loss to Iowa as a seven-point favorite, dropping to 4-10 SU all-time in bowl games and 1-2 SU and ATS in three bowls under Spurrier. The Ol’ Ball Coach is a mediocre 7-8 SU and ATS when patrolling the sidelines in the postseason.
The Big East is a perfect 3-0 all-time in the PapaJohns.com Bowl, but has failed to cash in the last two.
UConn’s offense turned it up a notch over the final seven weeks of the season, scoring at least 24 points in all seven games, including averaging 40.8 ppg in the last four. For the season, the Huskies produced nearly 400 total ypg, including 172.8 rushing ypg. On the flip side, the defense crumbled down the stretch, allowing an average of 30 ppg over the final eight contests after surrendering just 15 ppg through the first four weeks. Opposing offenses netted 382.4 total ypg against UConn, including 244.8 through the air.
Prior to the 34-point outburst in the season finale against Clemson, the South Carolina offense tallied a total of 63 points in its previous five games (12.6 ppg), losing four of the five. For the season, it managed just 21.8 ppg and 359.2 total ypg. Also, during the three-game losing streak that preceded the upset of Clemson, the ‘Cocks’ defense got torched for 29.3 ppg. Otherwise, they gave up 17.4 ppg in the other nine contests. South Carolina had the 12th best pass defense in the country, yielding just 167.7 ypg through the air.
The Huskies had failed to cover in 14 straight lined games as a road underdog coming into this season, but they went 5-0 ATS as a road pup this year and they’ve cashed in six straight when catching points regardless of venue. UConn, which had the best regular-season pointspread mark in college football, is on additional ATS tears of 10-2 overall, 7-2 against winning teams, 35-17-1 in non-conference play and 5-1 after a SU win.
South Carolina entered 2009 on a 12-5 ATS run as a chalk, but failed to cash in three of four as a favorite this year. On the bright side, the ‘Cocks have covered in four straight against winning squads.
The Huskies topped the total in each of their last seven games and seven of their last eight lined contests, and the over is 5-2 in their last seven non-league affairs and 4-1 in their last five as a ‘dog. South Carolina carries “over” trends of 4-1 as a favorite, 6-2 after a SU win, 20-8-1 after a spread-cover, but the under is 6-3 in its last nine non-league outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCONN and OVER
Ole Miss (8-4, 5-5 ATS) vs. (21) Oklahoma State (9-3, 5-5-1 ATS)
Ole Miss returns to Texas to defend its Cotton Bowl title when it takes on Oklahoma State in an SEC/Big 12 matchup at the new Dallas Cowboys Stadium.
The Rebels began the year thinking national title, as they were ranked as high as No. 4 going into their SEC opener at South Carolina in Week 3. However, Ole Miss dropped that game 16-10 as a four-point road favorite, leading to a 5-4 record over its final nine contests against Division I-A competition. In the regular-season finale, Houston Nutt’s squad lost 41-27 at archrival Mississippi State as a 7½-point road favorite, falling to 1-3 ATS in its last four lined outings (all as a favorite).
Like Ole Miss, Oklahoma State ended the regular season with a blowout loss to its instate rival, getting blanked 27-0 at Oklahoma as an eight-point underdog. The defeat snapped a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS) for the Cowboys, who won eight of their final 10 games, but the two losses to Texas (41-14 at home) and Oklahoma were by a combined score of 68-14.
Ole Miss pummeled eighth-ranked Texas Tech 47-34 as a four-point underdog in last year’s Cotton Bowl, improving to 7-2 SU against Big 12 opponents in bowl games, winning the last six in a row. The Rebels are in consecutive January bowls for the first time since 1970-71.
This is the Cowboys’ fourth consecutive bowl trip – a school record – all under coach Mike Gundy, and they went 2-1 SU and ATS in the first three. The one blemish came in the Holiday Bowl last year, when Oklahoma State went to San Diego and lost 42-31 to Oregon as a 2½-point underdog.
The SEC has dominated this annual January contest, winning five of the last six both SU and ATS. That includes the Eli Manning-led Rebels’ 31-28 win over Oklahoma State as a 2½-point chalk in the 2003 Cotton Bowl. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last 15 Cotton Bowls going back to 1994.
Both teams are led by experienced quarterbacks, though both failed to live up to expectations this season. Ole Miss junior Jevan Snead, who dominated Texas Tech in last year’s Cotton Bowl, completed just 54.3 percent of his passes for 2,464 yards with 20 TDs offset by 17 INTs, the latter figure tying Miami’s Jacory Harris for most picks in the country. Oklahoma State’s Zac Robinson connected on 60.5 percent of his throws, but for only 1,780 yards with 14 TDs and seven INTs. While the quarterbacks struggled, both have superior rushing attacks, with the Rebels averaging 182.8 ypg on the ground (4.8 per carry), slightly behind the Cowboys’ 192.4 rushing ypg (4.4 per carry)
Ole Miss scored 38 points or more five times and tallied 27 or more in eight of 13 games, finishing with the exact same scoring average as Oklahoma State (30.2 ppg). The Rebels defense was stout most of the year, yielding just 18.6 points and 319.3 total yards per outing, but 140.3 rushing ypg.
Take away the ugly losses to Oklahoma and Texas, and the Cowboys scored at least 24 points in every other game and averaged 34.8 ppg in those 10 contests. The defense yielded more than 28 points just three times and for the season gave up an average of 21.8 ppg and just 329.8 total ypg. OSU ranked sixth nationally against the run, surrendering just 87.7 ypg (2.9 ypc).
Ole Miss is on positive ATS runs of 6-0 in non-conference play, 4-1-1 in bowl games, 9-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 after a SU defeat and 8-3 on artificial turf. On the downside, they’ve failed to cover in three of four as a favorite, and they’re 0-10-2 ATS in their last 12 as a chalk of three points or less and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five versus the Big 12 (the one cover coming against Texas Tech in last year’s Cotton Bowl).
Oklahoma State has cashed in 11 of 16 on artificial turf and five straight when coming off a game in which they scored 20 points or less, but the Cowboys have failed to get the money in five straight as an underdog and four of five after a non-cover.
The Rebels are on “over” tears of 4-1 overall and 6-0 in non-conference play, but the under is 36-16 in their last 52 games after a SU loss. Meanwhile, OSU is on “under” runs of 4-2 overall, 4-0 after a defeat, 4-1 after a non-cover and 4-1 versus winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OLE MISS and UNDER
Arkansas (7-5, 7-4 ATS) vs. East Carolina (9-4, 6-6 ATS)
After a one-year postseason hiatus, the Razorbacks return to a bowl game, and they draw Conference USA champion Eastern Carolina, which is looking to avenge last year’s Liberty Bowl loss.
Arkansas had a shot at ending the regular season on a five-game winning streak, but it failed to finish at LSU in the regular-season finale, losing 33-30 in overtime. However, the Razorbacks covered as a 3½-point underdog, so they enter this contest on a 4-0 ATS run and a 7-2 ATS roll since the calendar flipped to October.
The Pirates closed the regular season on a four-game winning surge (3-1 ATS), capped by a 38-32 upset victory over Houston as a two-point home underdog on Dec. 5. East Carolina went 6-1 (5-2 ATS) down the stretch, with all six wins coming in Conference USA play and the one defeat coming against then-22nd-ranked Virginia Tech (16-3 as a 12½-point home ‘dog).
This is the first time these schools have squared off on the football field.
Arkansas is in the postseason for the first time under second-year coach Bobby Petrino, who went 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in bowl games as Louisville’s coach. The Razorbacks have dropped 11 of 13 postseason games since 1986 (3-8 ATS), and they’ve come up short in all three Liberty Bowl appearances, the most recent coming in 1987.
East Carolina coach Skip Holtz has now led his troops to four straight bowl games, though last year’s Liberty Bowl trip ended with a disappointing 25-19 loss to Kentucky as a three-point favorite. The Pirates are 1-2 SU and ATS in this bowl game.
With Kentucky’s win over East Carolina last year, the SEC is now perfect 3-0 SU and ATS since the Liberty Bowl began matching a low-level SEC opponent against the Conference USA champion in 2006. That includes back-to-back outright upsets the last two years.
Led by 6-foor-6 QB Ryan Mallett (57.2 percent, 3,422 yards, 29 TDs, 7 INTs), the Razorbacks’ high-powered offense produced at least 30 points in each of their final five games, averaging 45 ppg during the stretch. Despite surrendering 33 points at LSU in the finale, the defense held six of its final nine opponents to 23 points or less (nine-game average of 23.6 ppg). That said, the Hogs’ stop unit got run over for more than 400 total ypg (150.1 rushing ypg).
East Carolina averaged 38.5 ppg during its six-game Conference USA winning streak, and prior to the 38-32 win over Houston in the league title game, the Pirates held six straight opponents to 21 points or less (17.7 ppg). However, in three games versus BCS conference opponents (West Virginia, North Carolina and Virginia Tech), East Carolina got outscored 82-40, going 0-3 SU and ATS.
In addition to ending the regular season with four consecutive spread-covers, Arkansas is on ATS upticks of 6-1 against winning teams, 4-1 as a favorite, 4-1 when laying 3½ to 10 points and 5-1 after a spread-cover. East Carolina is on pointspread runs of 5-2 overall, 9-4 as an underdog and 8-3 when catching 3½ to 10 points, but the Pirates have failed to get the money in six consecutive lined non-conference affairs.
Arkansas has stayed under the total in six straight bowl games and four straight postseason contests in January. On the other hand, the over is 4-1 in the Razorbacks’ last five overall, 9-2 in their last 11 as a favorite and 12-5 in their last 17 non-SEC contests. Likewise, East Carolina carries “over” trends of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in non-league action, 4-1 in bowl games, 4-0 at neutral sites and 4-1 as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Michigan State (6-6, 4-6-1 ATS) vs. Texas Tech (8-4, 6-5 ATS)
Three days after the controversial firing of longtime coach Mike Leach, Texas Tech ends a tumultuous week with a matchup against the depleted Spartans at the Alamo Dome.
Leach was suspended indefinitely by Texas Tech officials early this week amid allegations of mistreatment of a player. Leach, who also had served as the Red Raiders’ offensive coordinator, sought a court order in attempt to coach in this game, but on Wednesday he was terminated after 10 seasons with the school (all 10 ending in bowl games). Defensive coordinator will serve as Tech’s coach tonight.
Michigan State is dealing with its own mess, as eight players (including four starters, two on both sides of the ball) have been suspended because of an altercation on campus. Most notable among those who will sit out are WRs B.J. Cunningham and Mark Dell, who combined for 74 receptions and were the team’s second and third leading receivers.
On the field, the Spartans have been idle since Nov. 21, when they fell to Penn State 42-14 as a three-point home underdog. Michigan State started October with a three-game winning streak to, but won just three of its final five games, while also going 1-4-1 ATS in its last six contests.
Like Michigan State, the Red Raiders began October with three straight wins – all double-digit blowouts by a combined score of 145-52 – but they lost two of their next three before ending the year on a high note with home wins over Oklahoma (41-13 as a six-point underdog) and Baylor (20-13 as a 20½-point home chalk). Texas Tech alternated spread covers in its last six games and was 4-5 ATS over its final nine contests (2-4 ATS as a favorite).
This is the first meeting between these schools.
Michigan State is going bowling for the third straight year under coach Mark Dantonio, but they lost the last two (1-1 ATS), including a 24-12 setback to Georgia in last year’s Capital One Bowl on New Year’s Day. In fact, the Spartans are looking for their first bowl victory since 2001, having lost the last three in a row (1-2 ATS), including a 17-3 setback to Nebraska as a three-point underdog in the 2003 Alamo Bowl.
Although Texas Tech reached a bowl in all 10 seasons under Leach, it has a poor postseason track record, going 10-21-1 SU all-time in bowl games (0-2 SU and ATS in the Alamo Bowl). However, the Red Raiders were a respectable 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS under Leach. Last year, Tech went to the Cotton Bowl as a four-point favorite and got steamrolled by Ole Miss 47-34, failing to cover for the fourth straight time in the postseason.
The Big 12 has won three of the last four Alamo Bowls, but since Michigan State’s loss to Nebraska in 2003, the Big Ten representative has gotten the money each of the last five years. During that stretch, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in this bowl game.
Prior to the blowout loss to Penn State to end the regular season, Michigan State had put up 34, 49 and 40 points in three straight games. The offense averaged 407.1 total ypg (including 271.2 passing ypg), but the Spartans were very inconsistent when it came to scoring, producing 30 or more points six times, tallying between 24-27 points four times and managing 14 and 13 points in losses to Penn State and Iowa (the two toughest defenses MSU faced all year).
On the other side of the ball, Michigan State gave up 25.1 points and 364.3 yards per outing, including a stout 112.8 rushing ypg. While the Spartans held five of their final eight opponents to 20 points or less, they also gave up 29 points or more six times, going 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS.
Leach’s offense took a bit of a step back after being one of the top units in the country last year, but the Raiders still ranked in the Top 10 in scoring (36.7 ppg, 9th), total offense (461.8 ypg, 7th) and passing (380.7 ypg, 2nd). Leach had a difficult time settling on a replacement for last year’s star QB Graham Harrell, as Taylor Potts and Steve Sheffield split time and ended up passing for a combined 4,199 yards, 33 TDs and 16 INTs. As usual, Tech didn’t even try to establish the run, averaging just 81.1 rushing ypg, which ranked 114th out of 120 teams.
Under McNeill’s guidance, Texas Tech had a solid year defensively, yielding just 21.8 points and 349.4 yards per game (125.7 rushing ypg). The Red Raiders gave up 13 points in each of their final two games and held six of their final seven foes to 24 points or less.
Michigan State has cashed in nine of 12 after a non-cover, but is otherwise in ATS funks of 1-4-1- overall, 1-4 against the Big 12, 1-6 as an underdog and 1-7 against winning teams. Texas Tech also carries a slew of poor ATS numbers, including that 0-4 mark in bowl games (all as a favorite), 0-4 against the Big Ten, 1-3-1 in non-conference play and 0-5 at neutral sites (all as a favorite).
The Spartans are on “over” upticks of 4-0 overall, 4-1 after a loss and 40-17-2 as an underdog. Texas Tech stayed low in its final four regular-season contests, but the over is 4-1 in its last five bowl games and 9-4 in its last 13 following a SU victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Tips and Trends
Connecticut Huskies vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Connecticut: Emotions are running high for the Huskies, as they play their 1st Bowl game since the passing of Jasper Howard. Connecticut has played well down the stretch, winning their last 3 games SU. The Huskies have been relying on their running game, as new QB Zach Frazer has struggled to manage this offense. The tandem RB duo of Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon have combined to rush for more than 2,200 YDS with 28 total TDs. This duo is clearly one of the best RB units in the nation and have led their team to an averaged of 40 PPG over their last 4 contests. This Huskies defense is struggling, having allowed 27 PTS or more in 6 consecutive games. The Huskies defense has been picked apart through the air, as they lack playmakers in their secondary. The Huskies were tremendous on the road, winning all 6 games ATS. The Huskies were also an impressive 6-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
Connecticut is 6-0 ATS last 6 games as an underdog.
Over is 7-0 last 7 games overall.
Key Innjuries - QB Cody Endres (shoulder) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)
South Carolina (-3.5, O/U 51.5): South Carolina comes into today with a 7-5 record both SU and ATS. The Gamecocks have lost 3 of their last 4 games SU by double digits. The Gamecocks only won 1 game outside of their home state this season as they went 1-4 SU on the road. Despite their SU troubles on the road, the Gamecocks did go 3-2 ATS away from home. South Carolina is 1-3 ATS this season as a favorite, with today being the first time this season they've been the listed favorite away from home. QB Stephen Garcia has come on strong this year, as he finished 2nd in the SEC conference with nearly 2,750 passing YDS. The Gamecocks only averaged 21.8 PPG which was the 2nd lowest scoring average in the SEC. The Gamecocks only allowed 21 PPG this season, but they were wearing down as the regular season concluded. South Carolina has given up 24 PTS or more in 3 of their past 4 games.
South Carolina is 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Keyh Injuries - S Jarrett Burns (finger) is questionable.
G Kevin Young (ankle) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24
Ole Mississippi Rebels vs. Oklahoma St. Cowboys
Ole Miss (-3, O/U 50.5): Ole Miss is looking for history to repeat itself, as they won last years edition of the Cotton Bowl. The Rebels have yet to lose back to back games SU this season. The Rebels were 2-3 both SU and ATS away from home this season. Today's game represents the smallest the Rebels have been favored by all season. Ole Miss was 3-4 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. QB Jevan Snead was billed as a Heisman contender this year, but he's had a disappointing season. Snead has thrown for less than 2,500 YDS with a completion rate under 55%. Snead also has 17 INTs this year to go along with 23 total TDs. RB Dexter McCluster is close to becoming the first player in SEC history with both 1,000 YDS rushing and 500 YDS receiving in the same season. After allowing only 2 teams to score more than 17 PTS against them all season, the Rebels have allowed their past two opponents to score a combined 64 PTS.
Ole Miss is 7-0 ATS last 7 non conference games.
Over is 6-0 last 6 non conference games.
Key Innjuries - FB Andy Hartmann (ankle) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 30 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Oklahoma St: Despite getting shut out in their final game of the regular season, the Cowboys have plenty to play for today. With a win today, the Cowboys will tie the school record with 10 victories in a season. The Cowboys stand at 9-3 SU and 5-5-1 ATS on the season. Oklahoma St. was 3-1 SU when playing on the road, including an ATS record of 2-1-1. Today will be the 3rd time this season the Cowboys are the underdog. They lost both games SU and ATS in the underdog scenario. After starting the season with a prolific offense, the Cowboys have only averaged 20.6 PPG over their past 5 games. Because of QB injuries, RB Keith Toston has carried the offensive load for the Cowboys. Toston has over 1,400 total YDS with 12 TDs on the season. Defensively, the Cowboys are 6th in the country at stopping the run, allowing less thatn 88 YPG on the ground. The Cowboys have allowed 21.8 PPG this season, along with less than 330 total YPG.
Oklahoma St is 0-5 ATS last 5 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 last 5 games as an underdog up to a field goal.
Key Injuries - RB Kendall Hunter (foot) is probable.
OL Russell Okung (knee) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 27