Game of the day: Michigan at Iowa
By Nick Parsons
Michigan Wolverines at Iowa Hawkeyes (-8, 47)
The stakes are high for the hometown Iowa Hawkeyes (5-0) this Saturday night, when they play host to the Michigan Wolverines (4-1) at Kinnick Stadium (8 p.m. ET ABC).
It’s homecoming this weekend in Iowa and the undefeated Hawkeyes will look to preserve their nine game winning streak, which is the second longest next to Florida.
Trouble with the Spread
Iowa hasn't played the Wolverines since 2006 but this, of course, isn't the same type of team. Head coach Rich Rodriguez has brought the spread offense to Michigan and defending this seems to be the one weak point in this stellar Hawkeye defense.
Their two toughest games this year have oddly enough been against the two least talented teams on their schedule, Northern Iowa and Arkansas State. But both teams run a similar type of offense to Michigan.
Arkansas State's QB Corey Leonard is a bit like fleet footed Michigan QB Tate Forcier and he gave the 10th-ranked Iowa defense trouble. He hasn't been much of rushing threat this year, having only 38 yards on the ground, but Iowa still focused on containing the mobile QB and he was able to generate modest gains through the air by using cross and underneath routes.
Iowa will go into the Michigan game with the same contain mentality, but it will deal with a much more talented squad. Last week, Michigan State experienced success in its 26-20 OT victory over the Wolverines, limiting them to 28 yards on the ground. They were previously averaging 240.25 yards in rushing per game.
But the Iowa D shouldn't expect the same offensive gameplan from Michigan. The running back duo of Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown (who is questionable as of press time) had only a combined 10 rushing attempts against Michigan State.
The offensive key for Michigan will be to keep the tough Iowa D honest and Minor will need to have a big game to keep this contest close. The talented senior has only topped the 100 yard mark once this year, in what was arguably Michigan’s best game of the season versus Notre Dame. Iowa, however, has not given up a rushing TD in 33 quarters.
This is the toughest defense that Michigan has faced, but if Rodriquez and offensive coordinator Calvin Magee can keep the Hawkeyes honest, it will open up the game for Forcier to lead a possible upset.
Good Ricky vs. Bad Ricky
Iowa has won nine straight games, but it hasn't been pretty and that stems from the performance of their QB. Ricky Stanzi has been two-faced his entire career, looking like a Division-three QB in some parts of the game and then putting in a Super-Bowl performance in the other. Last week was no exception, having thrown three deep TD passes all over 30 yards, but then following that up with two sloppy interceptions, one a 75-yard return for a TD.
If Iowa is to continue its streak, Stanzi will have to be more consistent as the Hawkeyes can't rely on their defense to bail them out of games for the entire season.
Statistically, Michigan's D doesn't seem great ranked 90th and having given up 392 yards per game, but the team seems to be adjusting to the 3-4 defense. The Wolverines’ faults from last week's game came down to fundamentals as opposed to scheme, as their performance against Michigan State game was littered with missed tackles and defensive miscues.
But despite all this, they kept a potent Spartan offense to a seaso- low 26 points. The key for the Hawkeye offense is in their offensive line as they will be up against a solid front led by future NFLer Brandon Graham.
The freshman running back duo of Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher has kept opposing defenses honest averaging a combined 125.6 yards per game and they will need to continue that success to open the passing game up for Stanzi.
With star TE Tony Moeaki (questionable for Saturday) missing for most of the year, Iowa has not had to key in on any one receiver. This could work in their favor as Michigan's secondary as a whole has been vulnerable, giving up 239 yards per game.
The Line and Weather
The spread for the game opened up at -8 in favor of Iowa and has stayed there at most books. During their winning streak, the Hawkeyes are 6-2 ATS and have only failed to cover the spread when dealing with double digits.
As 8-point underdogs, this is the largest number that Michigan has had to deal with in 2009. The Wolverines are 3-2 ATS this year with both ATS losses coming against Big Ten teams.
The total is in between 47 and 48. Iowa's team is characterized by its defense and it has shown in its over/under record going 1-2-1 this year. The last meeting between these two teams in 2006 went under the 44 point total by 26 points, with Michigan winning 20-6.
On paper, Iowa has the ability to blow out this game. The Hawkeyes have been inconsistent versus the spread but they seem to be a team that plays to their competition as characterized by their huge 21-10 road win on primetime against Penn State.
Michigan seems to be back on the right track though after having suffered a 3-9 season last year. Michigan leads the series 40-10-4. Moneyline for the underdogs presents decent value at +255.
Historically homecoming serves no advantage with Iowa having loss its last two homecoming games against Northwestern last year and Indiana in 2007. Iowa was favored by more than a touchdown in both games.
It’s expected to be a cold and rainy day in Iowa City with temperatures in the mid 30s with a 50 percent chance of precipitation.
All signs point to a stereotypical Big Ten defensive battle, but with a new Michigan offensive system in place and an unpredictable Iowa QB, this key conference matchup could produce unexpected results.
(1) Florida (4-0, 2-1 ATS) at (4) LSU (5-0, 2-3 ATS)
The marquee game of the week takes place under the lights at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, where fourth-ranked LSU hosts SEC rival and top-ranked Florida, which may have to go without star quarterback Tim Tebow.
The Gators have been idle since a 41-7 rout of Kentucky on Sept. 26, jumping out to a 31-0 first-quarter lead and easily cashing as a 20½-point road chalk. Florida lost Tebow to a serious concussion in the victory, and although the former Heisman Trophy winner was cleared to practice earlier this week, his status for tonight won’t be decided until game time. If Tebow can’t go, sophomore John Brantley (4-for-6, 30 yards, 1 TD, no INTs vs. Kentucky) will get the nod.
One week after needing a miraculous goal-line stand in the waning moments of a 30-26 win at Mississippi State, LSU went to Georgia and rallied for a 20-13 victory as a 3½-point road pup. The Tigers saw a 12-7 lead turn into a 13-12 deficit with 1:09 to play, but they got a 33-yard TD run from Charles Scott just 23 seconds later, followed by a successful two-point conversion, to steal the victory. LSU finished with 368 total yards (156 rushing) and allowed just 274 yards (45 rushing).
Florida owns the nation’s longest winning streak at 14 in a row, all by double digits, and it is 11-1 ATS in lined action during this stretch. Meanwhile, LSU is riding a six-game winning streak (3-3 ATS) since a 38-3 thrashing of Georgia Tech in last year’s Chick-fil-A Bowl, and the Tigers have won 32 consecutive home games played at night.
These rivals have split the last four meetings, with the Gators cashing each time. Last year in Gainesville, Florida cruised 51-21 as a 6½-point home favorite, finishing with a 475-321 edge in total offense (265-80 on the ground). In their last trip to Baton Rouge, the Gators suffered a heartbreaking 28-24 loss, blowing a 24-14 fourth-quarter lead as LSU converted five straight fourth-down attempts on their two late TD drives. However, Florida did easily cover as an eight-point underdog, improving to 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to the Bayou.
Also in this rivalry, the visitor is on a 6-2 ATS roll, and the pup has cashed in five of the last seven.
The Gators, who opened up with cupcakes Charleston Southern (62-3 win) and Troy (56-6), are putting up 45.5 points and 526.2 total yards per game, including 307.5 rushing ypg (7 yards per tote). By comparison, LSU is averaging 27 points but just 322 yards per outing, including 135.8 rushing ypg (3.7 ypc).
Florida also rates the edge on defense, yielding just 7.2 points and 212.8 total yards per game, including just 120 passing yards per contest and 3.9 yards per pass attempt. LSU has been stout on the stop side, too, giving up averages of 14.8 points and 320.8 yards (116 rushing ypg, 3.3 ypc).
In addition to its ongoing 11-1 ATS roll overall, Florida is on further pointspread tears of 23-7 overall, 11-1 on the highway, 21-7 as a favorite, 9-0 as a road chalk, 13-3 in SEC action (8-1 last nine), 5-1 in October and 17-4 against teams with a winning record.
Despite last Saturday’s upset at Georgia, LSU has still failed to cover in 11 of its last 14 regular-season games and is on further ATS slides of 8-19-1 overall, 3-12-1 at Tiger Stadium, 8-21-1 in SEC play, 2-5 in October, 2-4 as an underdog, 3-6 versus winning teams and 0-4 after a non-cover. The one positive: The Tigers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points.
Florida has stayed low in four of its last five games overall, but otherwise Urban Meyer’s squad is on “over” rolls of 11-5 in conference play, 5-1 in October, 14-6 after a spread-cover, 15-5 against winning teams and 20-9 when playing on grass. The over for LSU is on runs of 17-9 overall, 13-5 in conference play, 5-2 in October and 4-1 as a home underdog.
On the flip side, 10 of the last 13 clashes in this rivalry have stayed below the total, including five of the last seven at LSU.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
Michigan (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at (12) Iowa (5-0, 3-1 ATS)
The Hawkeyes look to run their winning streak to 10 in a row when they resume Big Ten play by hosting Michigan at Kinnick Stadium.
Iowa jumped out to a 14-0 lead midway through the first quarter against Arkansas State last week, then completely lost interest and held on for a 24-21 victory, falling way short as a 21½-point home favorite. The Hawkeyes did have a 420-286 advantage in total offense, but QB Richard Stanzi offset a 296-yard, three-TD passing day with two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. During its nine-game winning streak, Iowa has surrendered an average of just 13 points per game, allowing more than 17 points just twice.
After climbing back into the national rankings with four straight home wins to start 2009, Michigan quickly slid back out of the Top 25 after last week’s 26-20 overtime loss at Michigan State as a four-point road underdog. Freshman QB Tate Forcier (17-for-32, 223 yards) tossed two TD passes with four minutes to play – the second with two seconds remaining – to help the Wolverines rally from a 20-6 deficit and force overtime. However, Forcier then threw an interception in the end zone on Michigan’s first overtime possession, and Michigan State turned around and scored the game-winner on a 23-yard run. The Wolverines were outgained 417-251, including 197-28 on the ground.
These schools last met on the gridiron in 2006, with Michigan prevailing 20-6 as a 12½-point home favorite. The Wolverines have won the last three meetings and they’ve cashed in the last two – including a 23-20 overtime victory as a three-point pup in their last trip to Iowa City in 2005 – after Iowa had gone 8-0 ATS in the previous eight meetings (all as an underdog). In fact, prior to Michigan’s 2006 rout as a home chalk, the underdog had been on a 9-0 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Michigan is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when catching between 3½ and 10 points, but otherwise Rich Rodriguez’s team is in pointspread ruts of 5-12 overall, 1-5 on the highway, 0-4 in Big Ten play, 0-5 in October, 1-5 after a SU defeat, 2-5 as an underdog and 2-5 versus winning teams.
Iowa had a 5-0 ATS run halted when it failed to cover against Arkansas State, but the Hawkeyes are still on positive ATS runs of 37-17 at home, 6-2 in conference play, 4-1 in October, 7-0 against winning teams, 4-1 as a favorite and 10-2 when laying between 3½ and 10 points.
For Michigan, the over is on upticks of 7-2 on the road (all as an underdog), 7-3 in conference play and 4-1 on grass. The over is also 3-1-1 in Iowa’s last five at home and 3-1-1 in its last five in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA and OVER
Boston College (4-1, 3-1 ATS) at (5) Virginia Tech (4-1, 2-3 ATS)
The Hokies are shooting for their fifth-straight victory when their ACC rivals from Boston College come calling in Blacksburg in this rematch of the last two conference championship games.
Boston College upset Florida State 28-21 at home a week ago as a four-point underdog for its second straight ACC victory at home, the first being a 27-24 upset of Wake Forest as a one-point chalk. However, in their only road game this season, the Eagles stunk up the field at Clemson on Sept. 19, falling 25-7 as nine-point underdogs.
Since their opening-season 34-24 loss to Alabama as a six-point underdog, the Hokies have been playing solid defense, giving up just 14.5 points a game. They beat Duke 34-26 a week ago in Durham, N.C., gaining 477 yards but falling short as a 17-point favorite. The last time Virginia Tech was at home, it blew out ACC rival Miami of Florida 31-7 as a 2½-point home ‘dog, rushing for 272 yards with RB Ryan Williams amassing 150 yards and two touchdowns.
Boston College has won the last two regular-season meetings (SU and ATS), only to fall in each of the last two ACC title games (0-2 ATS). Last year, Virginia Tech lost 28-23 in the regular-season meeting as a three-point ‘dog, but routed the Eagles 30-12 in the title game as a one-point favorite. Dating to 2000 when both squads were in the Big East, Boston College is just 4-6 SU against the Hokies, but the Eagles have gotten the cash in eight of the last 11 overall and six of the last eight in Blacksburg.
The Hokies are on ATS streaks of 28-12 in ACC action, 6-1 against teams with winning records and 4-1 following a non-cover, however they are on slides of 0-5 in October and 3-8 as a favorite.
Boston College is just 1-5 ATS in its last six road games and 2-8 ATS in the last 10 after an ATS win, but the Eagles are on positive ATS streaks of 15-6 as an underdog, 12-4 as a road pup and 7-3 in October.
The Eagles have topped the total in eight of their last 10 ACC games and four straight October contests, but the under is on runs of 10-4 on the road and 14-5 on grass. Virginia Tech has topped the total in five of its last seven October games, but the Hokies are on several “under” streaks, including 20-8 at home, 5-2 in ACC games, 7-2 as home favorites and 7-2 when favored by 10½ points or more at home. In this rivalry, the “under” is 4-2 in the last six battles overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Stanford (4-1 SU and ATS) at Oregon State (3-2, 1-3 ATS)
After three straight home wins, Stanford travels to Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Ore., to face the Beavers in a Pac-10 matchup.
The Cardinal destroyed San Jose State (42-17 as an 18½-point favorite) and Washington (34-14 as a 9½-point chalk) before beating UCLA a week ago 24-16 as a five-point choice. Stanford is averaging 31.2 points and 410 yards per game (221.8 rushing ypg),while the defense is yielding only 16.8 ppg and 324.8 ypg (114.2 rushing ypg). In fact, Jim Harbaugh’s team is averaging two more yards per carry than its opponents (5.5-3.5).
Oregon State went to Tempe, Ariz., Last week and beat Arizona State 28-17 as five-point underdogs, ending a three-game ATS slide and two-game SU losing streak. The Beavers have dropped their last two home games, losing 28-18 to Cincinnati on Sept. 18 as a one-point home ‘dog, then dropping a 37-32 decision to Arizona on Sept. 26 as a 2½-point favorite.
The Cardinal took last year’s contest 36-28 at home, cashing as 2½-point favorites, but it was just their third win in the last 10 years against the Beavers. Prior to last year, Oregon State had been dominating this series, going 9-2 SU and ATS, including 5-1 SU and ATS in Corvallis.
Stanford is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games and 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a road ‘dog, however it has cashed in four of its last five overall and six of its last seven in Pac-10 play.
Even after their three-game ATS slide this season, the Beavers remain on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 10-4 overall, 9-3 at home, 30-10 in October, 7-2 in conference games, 44-18 following an ATS win, 35-15-1 as a home favorite and 9-3 after a SU win.
For Stanford, the over is on runs of 8-2 as a ‘dog and 6-1-1 as a road ‘dog, but the Cardinal are also on “under” streaks of 42-18-1 in Pac-10 action, 26-12-1 on the highway and 23-5 in October. Meanwhile, the Beavers are on “under” runs of 4-1 overall and 5-2 following a SU win. Finally, in this rivalry the under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings and 4-0 in the last four clashes in Corvallis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE and UNDER
(3) Alabama (5-0, 4-1 ATS) at (20) Ole Miss (3-1, 2-1 ATS)
Alabama goes after its sixth straight win to begin the season and its sixth straight win over Ole Miss when it hits the road for the second week in a row for an SEC West clash with the Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
The Crimson Tide continued their impressive start to the season with last Saturday’s 38-20 rout at Kentucky, barely cashing as a 16½-point road favorite. After outgaining their first three opponents by margins of 343, 302, 336 and 171, the Tide had “just” a 352-301 yardage edge against the Wildcats, but the defense forced four turnovers and the offense committed none.
Ole Miss rebounded from an ugly 16-10 loss at South Carolina – a defeat that knocked the team out of the Top 5 in the rankings – with last Saturday’s 23-7 rout of Vanderbilt as a 10-point road favorite. After managing just 248 yards, including 109 passing, against South Carolina, the Rebels produced 397 yards against the Commodores and surrendered just 240. QB Jevan Snead had an up-and-down game, going 19-for-34 for 237 yards and three TDs, but he also threw three interceptions.
The Rebels went to Tuscaloosa last October and put a scare into then-unbeaten Alabama, rallying from a 24-3 halftime deficit by scoring all 17 second-half points, only to come up short 24-20 as an 11-point road underdog. The Crimson Tide have won the last five meetings dating to 2004, but Ole Miss is 4-0 ATS in the last four (all as an underdog), with the four contests decided by a total of 13 points. The host is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, with Alabama going 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Oxford.
Going back to the start of last season, the Crimson Tide have won 17 consecutive regular-season games, with all but three being double-digit blowouts. In fact, including losses to Florida in the SEC title game and Utah in the Sugar Bowl, 17 of the Tide’s last 19 games have been decided by double digits. Meanwhile, since falling at Alabama last year, Ole Miss has won nine of its last 10, with the last eight wins being by 10 points or more.
‘Bama is in the midst of several positive ATS runs, including 9-3 overall, 6-1 on the road, 9-2 as a favorite, 7-1 as a road chalk (4-0 last four), 6-1 in SEC games and 8-2 after a straight-up win. The Rebels have cashed in eight straight games from the underdog role and eight straight against Top 10-ranked teams, and they’re on additional pointspread upticks of 16-5 overall, 3-0 at home, 6-2 as a home pup, 21-10 in October and 6-1 after a SU win.
The Crimson Tide have topped the total in five of six overall (all as a favorite), but otherwise they are on “under” runs of 12-5 in October and 4-1 in SEC play. Ole Miss carries nothing but “under” trends, including 7-3 overall, 36-17 in SEC play and 5-1 in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA and UNDER
(22) Georgia Tech (4-1, 2-2 ATS) at Florida State (2-3, 1-3 ATS)
Florida State hopes to bounce back from a pair of upset losses and put aside speculation about the future of legendary coach Bobby Bowden as the Yellow Jackets visit Doak Campbell Stadium for an ACC contest.
Bowden’s 34th season with the Seminoles has been a rocky one. It started with a last-second, season-opening 38-34 home loss to Miami, Fla., followed by an embarrassingly close 19-9 home win over Division I-AA Jacksonville State. Florida State then went to No. 9 BYU and rolled 54-28 as an 8½-point road underdog, only to come back and lose the last two weeks to South Florida (17-7 as a 14-point home chalk) and Boston College (28-21 as a four-point road favorite). The ‘Noles are averaging 27 points and 402.8 total yards per game, but the defense is yielding 24 points and 407.4 ypg.
Georgia Tech is coming off two impressive victories, first toppling ACC rival North Carolina 24-7 as a three-point home favorite, then knocking off Mississippi State 42-31 as a 5½-point road chalk in a non-conference contest last Saturday. The Yellow Jackets, whose triple-option attack is averaging 252.2 rushing ypg (4.8 per carry), haven’t won three in a row since a four-game win streak from late September to mid-October last year, a stretch of 11 games.
Georgia Tech snapped a 12-game losing streak to FSU that dated to 1975 with last year’s 31-28 home win, pushing as a three-point favorite as the Seminoles lost a fumble in the end zone on second-and-goal from the 3-yard line with 45 seconds to play. The Yellow Jackets are 0-6 SU all-time in Tallahassee, including a 14-13 loss as a massive 24-point underdog in their last visit in 2003. Georgia Tech is 3-1-2 ATS in the last six clashes going back to 1999 (all as a pup).
The Yellow Jackets are on ATS runs of 7-2 on the road, 7-2-1 against losing teams, 4-1-1 in October, 5-2-1 as a road underdog and 12-3-1 when catching three points or fewer. Florida State has failed to cash in seven of 10 October contests and is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 as a home favorite but is otherwise on pointspread surges of 6-1-1 after a SU defeat, 7-1-1 after a non-cover, 8-2 as a favorite of three points or less and 4-0 when laying three or less at home.
For Georgia Tech, the under is on stretches of 5-2 on the road, 8-3 in ACC action, 28-10-1 as an underdog, 20-7 as a road pup, 8-0 as a ‘dog of three points or less and 20-6-2 in October. Conversely, the Seminoles are riding “over” streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-2 in conference, 15-6 after a SU defeat and 11-3 in October. Finally, the under is on a 3-1 run in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH
Wisconsin (5-0, 2-2 ATS) at (9) Ohio State (4-1 SU and ATS)
Unable to crack the Top 25 despite a perfect 5-0 start, the Badgers will try once more to earn some respect when they head to the Horseshoe to meet Big Ten powerhouse Ohio State.
Wisconsin held off Minnesota 31-28 as a three-point road underdog, and it did so the old-fashioned way, grinding out 295 of its 454 yards on the ground while limiting the Gophers to just 57 rushing yards (328 total yards). Both teams were sloppy with the football, each committing three turnovers. Take away a 44-14 home rout of Division I-AA Wofford, and the Badgers’ other four wins have come by point margins of 8, 3, 8 and 3 points.
Ohio State has made a major statement since suffering a last-minute 18-15 home loss to USC, bouncing back with three dominating performances against Toledo (38-0), Illinois (30-0) and Indiana (33-14), going 3-0 ATS while outgaining all three by a total of 610 yards. Last week at Indiana, the Buckeyes jumped out to a 33-7 lead before allowing a touchdown on the final play of the game, but still cashing as a 17½-point road favorite.
QB Terrelle Pryor has stepped up his play the last three weeks, passing for 503 yards with seven TDs and three INTs.
Ohio State has won and covered the last two in this rivalry, including last year’s 20-17 road win as a one-point favorite, with Pryor scoring the game-winner on an 11-yard run with 1:06 to play. Before that, Wisconsin had gone 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against the Buckeyes from 2001-2004, all as an underdog. In fact, prior to OSU winning the last two as a favorite, the underdog had cashed in seven straight meetings.
Also in this rivalry, the visitor is on a 7-3 ATS run, with Wisconsin cashing in four of its last five trips to the Horseshoe.
The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last six Big Ten contests, but they’re 4-9 ATS in their last 13 on the highway and 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road pup. Ohio State has cashed in its last two home games after going 1-7 ATS in the previous eight in Columbus. Jim Tressel’s squad is also on pointspread rolls of 4-0 overall, 24-8 in Big Ten action, 19-9-1 as a favorite in Big Ten home games, 35-16 as a favorite, 5-1 when laying more than 10 points, 4-0 versus winning teams and 12-4 in October.
Wisconsin’s “over” runs include 3-0 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-0 in conference and 4-0 versus teams with a winning record. The over is also 3-1-1 in Ohio State’s last five league contests, but the under is 3-0-1 in its last four overall and 9-3-1 in its last 13 October affairs. Lastly, five of the last seven Badgers-Buckeyes battles have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE
(15) Oklahoma State (3-1, 1-2 ATS) at Texas A&M (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
Texas A&M looks to bounce back from its first loss of the season – and a humiliating one at that – when it welcomes the Cowboys to College Station for a Big 12 South matchup.
Since a stunning 45-35 home loss to Houston as a 16-point favorite on Sept. 12, Oklahoma State has rebounded with easy wins over Rice (41-24, falling short as a 32½-point favorite) and Grambling (56-6 in a non-lined game). This is the Cowboys’ first road game of the season, and they’ll have to play without star WR Dez Bryant, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA this week. With Bryant and QB Zac Robinson (602 passing yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT) on the field, Oklahoma State’s offense was getting progressively better each week scoring 24, 35, 41 and 56 points.
After flattening three overmatched opponents (New Mexico, Utah State, UAB) at home to start the season – winning by a combined 135-54 – the Aggies met their match last week at Dallas Cowboys Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas, losing 47-19 to Arkansas as a two-point underdog. Despite the lopsided score, Texas A&M actually had a 10-0 lead and ended up outgaining the Razorbacks 458-438, including 163-113 on the ground, but the Aggies lost three turnovers, one of which was returned 85 yards for a touchdown.
The Cowboys snapped a four-game losing skid to Texas A&M last year, rolling 56-28 and cashing as a 26-point home favorite. The SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight clashes.
Oklahoma State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall and has failed to cover in four straight against teams with a winning record, but the Cowboys have covered in four straight lined games in October. Meanwhile, the Aggies have failed to get the money in five of seven overall, eight of 13 at home, eight of 10 as an underdog and five of six against winning squads, but they’re 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 after a SU defeat.
The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these schools, 8-2-1 in A&M’s last 11 conference games and 4-1 in A&M’s last five in October. However, eight of Oklahoma State’s last nine on the highway have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(13) Oregon (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at UCLA (3-1 SU and ATS)
The Ducks hit the road for the first time since an embarrassing season-opening loss at Boise State when they travel down the Pacific coast to the Rose Bowl for a Pac-10 clash with UCLA.
Oregon has rebounded nicely for the Boise State debacle, ripping off four straight home victories, including pummeling Pac-10 foes Cal (42-3 as a 5½-point underdog) and Washington State (52-6 as a 35-point chalk) the last two weeks. In outscoring those two conference opponents 94-9, the Ducks rolled up a combined yardage advantage of 1,038-365, including 553-184 on the ground.
After a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS non-conference campaign, the Bruins opened Pac-10 play at Stanford last Saturday and fell 24-16 as a five-point underdog. UCLA’s stout defense, which surrendered a total of 38 points and an average of 251 yards through its first three contests, gave up season-highs of 372 total yards and 174 rushing yards, contributing to the Bruins’ nine-minute time-of-possession deficit.
The Ducks may have to go with untested junior QB Nate Costa (21 career pass attempts) in this game, as starter Jeremiah Masoli injured his knee in the rout of Washington State and missed much of practice this week. Costa is expected to start, with Masoli seeing only limited action, if any. Meanwhile, UCLA is expected to get starting QB Kevin Prince back after the freshman missed the last two games waiting for a broken jaw to heal. If Prince still isn’t ready, Kevin Craft (60.3 percent completion rate, 390 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) will start again.
These teams have alternated wins and losses the last four years, with the Bruins going 3-1 ATS (2-0 ATS at home). Last year in Eugene, Ore., the Ducks eked out a 31-24 victory, but UCLA cashed easily as a 19-point underdog. Oregon had a 323-63 rushing advantage, but the Bruins held the ball for nearly 38 of the 60 minutes. The ‘dog is 6-1 ATS and the visitor is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and prior to failing to cover in their last two trips to Pasadena, the Ducks had been on a 5-0 ATS roll when visiting UCLA.
The Ducks are riding ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 in Pac-10 play, 13-5 in October, 6-0 after a SU win and 5-1 against winning teams. UCLA also sports several pointspread runs, including 4-1 overall, 25-8-1 at home since 2004, 21-8 as an underdog, 17-5 as a home ‘dog (10-2 last 12 as a home pup), 16-7 in Pac-10 action, 20-6 after a SU defeat, 15-5 after a non-cover and 16-5 versus teams with a winning record. However, the Bruins have failed to cash in five of their last six when catching between 3½ to 10 points.
Oregon is on “over” stretches of 4-1 in conference, 9-1-2 as a favorite and 10-4-1 as a road chalk. Conversely, UCLA has nothing but “under” trends, including 7-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 6-1-1 in October, 20-7-1 in conference, 5-0 as a ‘dog and 8-2 as a home pup. Finally, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry, though the winner has scored at least 30 points in five of the last six clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(17) Auburn (5-0, 4-1 ATS) at Arkansas (2-2, 1-2 ATS)
The unbeaten Tigers go after their second straight SEC road victory when they visit Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville to battle Arkansas.
After four consecutive double-digit home wins to start the season, Auburn went to Tennessee last week and took a 26-3 lead into the fourth quarter en route to a 26-22 victory as a 2½-point road underdog. After scoring 37-plus points in their first four wins, the Tigers managed just two touchdowns against the Vols, but still rolled up 459 total yards (224 rushing). Auburn’s new-look offense is producing 41.4 points and 512.8 yards per outing (253.8 rushing ypg).
The Razorbacks bounced back from a pair of tough SEC defeats to Georgia (52-41) and Alabama (35-7) with a 47-19 thrashing of Texas A&M as a two-point favorite in a neutral-site non-conference game at Dallas Cowboys Stadium. Take away a seven-point, 254-yard disappointment at Alabama, and Bobby Petrino’s high-octane offense is putting up 45.3 points and 503.3 yards per game, including 375.3 passing ypg.
Both offenses are piloted by quarterbacks who are enjoying outstanding seasons. The Tigers’ Chris Todd is completing 58.7 percent of his passes for 1,230 yards with 12 TDs and just one INT, while Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett, a transfer from Michigan, has thrown for 1,148 yards (55 percent completion rate) with 11 TDs against just two INTs.
The visitor has won and covered four straight meetings in this rivalry and is 6-1 SU and ATS dating to 2002, with the Tigers getting the money in their last three trips to Fayetteville. Last year, the Razorbacks went to Auburn and prevailed 25-22 as a 16½-point road pup, making the ‘dog 7-2 ATS in the last nine series clashes.
The Tigers ended ATS slides of 0-5 on the road and 0-4 in October with last week’s upset at Tennessee, but they’re still just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 SEC contests. On the bright side, Auburn is on pointspread surges of 4-1 overall, 5-0-1 as a favorite of three points or less and 20-9-1 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Arkansas is on ATS runs of 4-0 in October, 5-2 as a ‘dog, 16-7-1 as a home pup and 4-1 when catching three points or less at home, but the Hogs have failed to get the money in four of their last five SEC battles.
The under is 6-1 in Auburn’s last seven road games, 4-1 in its last five conference contests and 4-1 in Arkansas’ last five in October, but otherwise the “over” is on streaks of 4-1 for the Tigers overall, 5-0 for the Tigers as a favorite, 10-4 for the Razorbacks at home and 4-1 for the Razorbacks in SEC action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(10) TCU (4-0, 2-1 ATS) at Air Force (3-2, 1-3 ATS)
TCU puts a six-game winning streak on the line when it finally begins the Mountain West Conference portion of its schedule with a trip to Colorado Springs, Colo., for a meeting with Air Force at Falcon Stadium.
The Horned Frogs started slowly against SMU a week ago, leading just 12-7 at the half, but they exploded over the final 30 minutes and cruised to a 39-14 win, coming up just short as a 28-point home chalk. TCU finished with 418 yards and allowed 224, and as usual, it owned a massive rushing edge, gaining 229 yards on the ground while holding SMU to minus-16 yards on 18 attempts. For the season, the Frogs are averaging 220 rushing ypg (4.7 per carry) and allowing an NCAA-low 47 rushing ypg (1.8 per carry), and they’ve outrushed each of their last eight opponents, including six by 146 yards or more.
TCU has surrendered 16 points or less in 11 consecutive Division I-A games and 15 of 16 since the start of the 2008 season. Take away a 35-10 loss at Oklahoma last year, and the Frogs, who are 15-2 SU and (10-5 ATS in lined action) since the start of last year, have given up just 21 touchdowns since the beginning of 2008, and they’ve allowed 10 points or less nine times during this 17-game stretch.
Air Force is coming off last Saturday’s 16-13 overtime loss to fellow service-academy Navy, falling short as a 2½-point road underdog to drop to 1-5 ATS in its last six lined games. Like TCU, the Falcons do the majority of their offensive damage on the ground, and they rank second nationally in rushing at 292 ypg (4.6 per carry). Air Force’s defense is also playing very well, giving up 12.6 points and 260 yards per contest.
TCU’s current six-game winning streak began with a 44-10 rout of Air Force last November, cashing as a 20½-point home favorite. The Horned Frogs are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings (3-1 SU and ATS this decade), and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last seven clashes dating to 1987. Finally, the host is 6-1 SU and ATS since ’87, and the ‘dog has cashed in four of the last six.
The Horned Frogs are riding ATS hot streaks of 23-9-1 in non-conference play, 26-12 as a favorite (12-5 last 17 as a chalk), 14-6 on grass and 6-0 after a non-cover. Air Force has covered in 11 of 15 in Mountain West play and eight of 11 at home, but in addition to their 1-5 ATS slide overall, the Falcons have failed to cash in five straight as an underdog and five straight against winning teams.
The under is 5-2 in TCU’s last seven road games, 4-1-1 in its last six in October, 9-1 in its last 10 after a non-cover, 15-5-2 in its last 22 versus teams with a winning record and 4-1 in the Falcons’ last five overall. Conversely, four of the last five TCU-Air Force clashes have soared over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TCU and UNDER
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Bayou-Kittens
By SportsPic
Tigers went out and delivered a gut-check road win over Georgia last weekend as the offensive, although shaky did just enough while it's nasty defense held the Dawgs well below their season scoring average. Tigers 5-0 (2-3 ATS) overall and off to a perfect 3-0 (1-2 ATS) conference start put up 27.0 PPG split between 186.2 passing, 135.8 rushing yards with the defense yielding 14.8 PPG on 204.8 passing, 116.0 rushing yards/game. With it's offense a work in progress LSU's 'D' will need to be at it's best if Tigers are to have a shot at upsetting Florida (4-0, 2-1 ATS). LSU obviously has talent and extremely tough in Baton Rouge winning 16-of-20 outscoring foes 34.3 to 19.1. However, Gators third ranked total offense (526.2 yards), 2nd ranked scoring unit (45.5) along with the best defense in the country limiting opponents to just 212.8 total yards, 7.2 PPG rule the day with/without Tim Tebow guiding the troops. Florida has been pegged 7.5-point road favorite against a team that it demolished by 30 points last season. Florida isn't a team you should be betting against. Gators face a ton of chalk most weeks and still enter an incredible 16-3-1 ATS it's last twenty on the field, 15-5 ATS last twenty in conference play including 8-1 against-the-number when on the highway. Don't forget, this stacked squad is coached by bookie buster Urban Meyer who is 52-21-1 against-the-oddsmaker the past 7 years (32-19-1 Florida, 20-2 Utah). Meanwhile, LSU sports a 4-11 ATS mark at Tiger Stadium and are a cash draining 3-14-2 ATS in conference action.
Games to Watch - Week 6
By Chris David
While we never like to look ahead, especially with some great games on tap this week, gamblers should circle Week 7 on their calendar. The action starts on Wednesday with a Boise State-Tulsa matchup and picks up the pace the very next night with a Big East battle between unbeaten foes Cincinnati and South Florida. Then on Saturday, you have the Red River Shootout between the Longhorns and Sooners, USC-Notre Dame and plenty of other must-see matchups.
Enough teasing, let's get back to this weekend and the "Battle at Baton Rouge" on Saturday.
Week 6
Florida at LSU
Top-ranked Florida (4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) and No. 4 LSU (5-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) knock heads on Saturday from Baton Rouge in what's easily the biggest game of the college football season. The winner of this matchup has won the past three BCS national championships and a fourth could be just around the corner. All the focus for this week's tilt is on Gators quarterback Tim Tebow, whose status is still up in the air but most believe he'll play. Tebow and UF own the second-best scoring offense (45 PPG) in the nation and they should be tested against LSU's aggressive defense (14 PPG). Florida has had two weeks to prepare for this battle, while the Tigers are coming off an emotional 20-13 road victory against Georgia last Saturday. It was the second straight week that LSU needed to make big plays down the stretch and Les Miles team answered with emphatic finishes. Last week, the offense rattled off a game-winning touchdown against the Bulldogs and two weeks prior it was the LSU defense that rose to the occasion with a goal line stand against Mississippi State (30-26). UGA is a decent team but still probably the fourth or fifth best team in the conference, which makes you wonder if the Tigers are ripe for a beating? LSU defeated Washington 31-23 in its road opener, but are the Huskies any good or just a lucky squad that caught USC in a letdown spot? Those questions will be answered this week and the individual that can make a statement for LSU is QB Jordan Jefferson (920 yards, 7 TDS). The Tigers attack is ranked dead-last (321 YPG) in the SEC and it really doesn't have an identity despite having playmakers in the backfield and on the outside. This unit will be tested on every down against Florida, who is ranked first nationally in defensive yards (212.8) and second in points (7.3) allowed.
GAMBLING NOTES
The Gators have been made favorites (-8) again and not surprisingly, they'll more than likely be for the remainder of their games too. Except for a possible road trap against South Carolina on Nov. 14, this is arguably the last test for Urban Meyer's team before a possible SEC Championship and eventually the BCS title game. You don't crown champions on paper and it's easy to see why you would need a perfect game to beat Florida. One factor that LSU has on its side is turnovers. LSU has only given the ball up four times, opposed to eight mistakes from Florida. The Gators lead 29-23-3 in the all-time series with LSU with the home team winning four straight. Florida has covered four in a row despite going 2-2 SU. The total has gone 2-2. Last year, the Gators blasted the Tigers 51-21 as seven-point favorites in wire-to-wire fashion. Les Miles has only been tabbed a home underdog once in his tenure at LSU and he's 0-1 both SU and ATS, losing last year to top-ranked Alabama 27-21 in overtime. Even if LSU pulls off the upset, Florida still has the easier path to avenge a loss in the SEC title game, which could be against the Tigers or Alabama.
Other Games to Watch
Auburn at Arkansas (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
Auburn (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) was coming off a brutal campaign in 2008 and the hiring of new coach Gene Chizik was met rudely. Sure enough, Chizik has turned things around rather quickly on The Plains. A lot of his success can be attributed to the hiring of offensive coordinator Guz Malzahn, who has the Tigers' offense (41 PPG, 512 YPG) ranked fifth nationally in points and yards. Malzahn could have this week's game against Arkansas (2-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) circled since he's from the area and he left the program after a brief stint. The Razorbacks and head coach Bobby Petrino have some fire power as well, and they showed it last Saturday by dropping 47 points on Texas A&M, who was also unbeaten at the time. QB Ryan Mallett (11 TDs), a Michigan transfer, has looked sharp and he spreads the ball around to his backs and receivers. Arkansas upset Auburn 25-20 last year as a heavy 16.5-point road underdog, which shouldn't come as a surprise since the visitor has won and covered four in a row. Will the Tigers get revenge and keep the road trend going? The 'under' has gone 3-1 during this span but the oddsmakers don't believe we're going to see a slugfest on Saturday, listing the total at 66.
Boston College at Virginia Tech (Gameplan, 12:00 p.m.)
Nobody expected Boston College (4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) to be a contender in the ACC this year but the school has put itself in contention with a back-to-back home wins over Wake Forest (27-24) and Florida State (28-21). The Eagles will face a tougher test this Saturday when meet No. 6 Virginia Tech (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) in Blacksburg. The Hokies looked flat in their 34-26 win at Duke last Saturday, yet that was expected after knocking off Miami 31-7 two weeks prior. Unknown for the passing game, V-Tech saw QB Tyrod Taylor put up 327 yards and two scores against the Blue Devils. Boston College has won the last two regular season battles in this series, but Virginia Tech has gotten revenge each time by winning the rematch in the ACC Championship. The total has gone 2-2 during this stretch. Little bit of a look-ahead here as VT heads to Atlanta for a key ACC Coastal battle against Georgia Tech. Things don't get easier for BC, who's next three include N.C. State, Notre Dame and Central Michigan.
Alabama at Mississippi (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
Even though the UF-LSU battle is the Game of the Week, this SEC matchup could've been just as big if Mississippi (3-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) was unbeaten? The Rebels are still ranked but they haven't played a solid game all year, even looking sluggish in their 23-7 win over Vanderbilt last Saturday. Third-ranked Alabama (5-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) comes to town with its ground-and-pound attack and most would argue that Ole Miss will be overmatched in a 60-minute contest. The one thing we do know about this game is that this series has been real tight. The Crimson Tide have won four in a row but they failed to cover the number in all four games, plus all four during this stretch have been decided by four points or less. Most sportsbooks have Alabama listed as a six-point road 'chalk' for Saturday. The Rebels haven't been catching points yet this year, but the team did go 5-0 ATS as underdogs last year and that included outright wins against highly ranked schools in Florida, LSU and Texas Tech. Does history repeat itself in Oxford?
Wisconsin at Ohio State (ABC-Regional, 3:30 p.m.)
Wisconsin (5-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) is one of 13 schools that remain unbeaten in college football and it's fair to say that the school is a product of its inferior competition. The Badgers will find out how good they are in the next two weeks, when it meets Ohio State (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) this Saturday in Columbus before playing Iowa at home on Oct. 17. The Buckeyes are laying two touchdowns at most sportsbooks and it's hard to argue against the home team in this spot. After giving up 45 points and going 1-1 in the first two games, Ohio State's defense posted back-to-back shutouts before stifling Indiana to 14 points last Saturday. Wisconsin's offense leads the Big 10 in scoring (35 PPG), and it has a workhorse that can move the ball in running back John Clay (582 yards, 7 TDs). Plus, quarterback Scott Tolzien (65.6%, 1,043 yards, 9 TDs) has proven that he can make plays too albeit against weaker opponents. The Buckeyes edged the Badgers 20-17 last year on a game-winning scamper by quarterback Terrelle Pryor. Gamblers should note that Wisconsin is 2-1 both SU and ATS in its last three trips to Columbus.
Michigan at Iowa (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
Michigan (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) and Iowa (5-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) don't play every year due to the conference scheduling and that's probably a good thing for the Hawkeyes. The Wolverines have won three straight and 10 of the previous 12 meetings, with the last encounter happening in 2005. These two squads meeting this Saturday are hard to gauge just because of whom they played but we do know the winner will gain confidence heading into the final six matches. Iowa earned its signature win two weeks ago at Penn State (21-10) but struggled against lower-tier opponents (Northern Iowa, Arkansas State) this year. Michigan has been playing with fire all year too and was finally was burned last Saturday in a 26-20 overtime loss to intrastate rival Michigan State. The Wolverines' offense against the Hawkeyes' defense looks like a wash but Iowa could have its way against a Wolverines' defense has been suspect this year, giving up 392 YPG. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is just 5-10 ATS as a home favorite in the last 15 spots at Iowa and his team is favored by 7-8 points at most books.
Three More to Keep an Eye on
Oregon vs. UCLA
Don't look now but Oregon (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) has quietly rung up four straight wins and a victory over UCLA (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) will help the school through a tough stretch. After this game, the Ducks travel to Washington before a home showdown versus USC. If that upset happens, then look out for the Nov. 7 game against Stanford. The home team has won three in a row and the 'under' has cashed in all three of those games.
TCU vs. Air Force
The table for TCU (4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is all set for a serious BCS run and it starts this weekend at Air Force (3-2 SU, 1-3 ATS). The Horned Frogs play four on the road and four at home in their Mountain West Conference schedule and this meeting is probably one of the two games that could be traps, the other being two weeks later in Provo against Brigham Young. TCU's defense is one of the best in the country but covering close to double digits on the road is never easy in conference play.
Georgia Tech vs. Florida State
Is Bobby Bowden's historic career done at Florida State (2-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)? Just when you count the Seminoles out, they'll usually come back and bite you in the ass and Georgia Tech (4-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) is ripe this Saturday. People forget that FSU's three losses have come by a combined 18 points against teams with a combined record of 12-2. And, you can't expect to win games when you constantly make mistakes. If FSU plays perfect, it can rip anybody. Just ask BYU…
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CFB Streaks & Notes
Colorado at Texas
Teams laying a boat load of lumber aren't usually good bets. But Longhorns looking to stay in the undefeated ranks and scoring 49.5 PPG should have little trouble crushing a Colorado squad the've defeated by a 35 PPG average the past four encounters. Besides, Buffaloes simply don't respond on the highway losing it's last seven (2-5 ATS) and thirteen of the past eighteen traveling (5-13 ATS). The rested Texas team on a 13-0 run at home won't disappoint. Longhorns are 6-0 ATS home laying 26 to 39 points, Buffaloes are 1-12 ATS as dogs playing with revenge and enter 0-6 ATS before knocking heads with Kansas.
Georgia Tech at Florida State
Seminoles have lost consecutive games and have also started 0-2 in the ACC. Still, they're spotting Yellow Jackets 2.5 points. Little wonder, Seminoles have won eight of last nine meetings (4-5 ATS) including 4-0 (2-2 ATS) in Tallahassee. Jackets face a big challenge especially playing into revenge having whipped Noles 31-28 last season. Still, can't sell Jackets short, QB Josh Nesbitt spearheading a solid ground game (712 PY, 363 RY) with the likes of Jonathan Dwyer (409 RY, 3 TD), Anthony Allen (227 RY, 3TD) could do serious damage vs Noles 'D' surrendering a whopping 407.4 total yards including 127.0 on the ground. Spread-wise Jackets are 12-3-1 as an underdog of 0.5-3.0, 3-1-2 ATS last 6 meetings. rs 52-38 on this turf last season marking three consecutive victories.
Arizona at Washington
It would be easy to dismiss Washington knowing they've managed just six wins the past twenty-nine on the field (10-19 ATS) and only 3 of it's last 20 in Pac-10 action (4-16 ATS). However, Huskies have a shot vs visiting Wildcats. Winning on the road has been tough at the best of times for Wildcats (4-9 SU & ATS) and it's a tall order in conference play (4-6 SU & ATS). Keep in mind QB Locker torched Arizona on this field in 2007, passing for 336 yards (2 TD) and rushing 157 yards (2TD) in a game the Wildcats eventually won 48-41. Locker throwing for 1,287 yards 7 TD's and rushing for 107 yards 3 TD's this season could easy shred Stoops Troops who've given up 745 total yards in it's two games away from Tucson and who are 2-6 ATS it's last eight games. Gut feel Huskies get over their experience at Notre Dame and come out strong.
Blade, how do you get all of these? just wondering
Blade, how do you get all of these? just wondering
I surf the net looking for stuff, I have lots of free time at work ;D