NCAAF News and Notes Saturday 10/16

The Big 12 Report - Horn Hunting in Lincoln
By: Tony George

A KEY week in the Big 12 in terms of setting the stage for a season ending showdown, the last of it's kind for the Nebraska Cornhuskers as they move to the Big 10 next year. I honestly feel if NU can get over on Texas in Lincoln, they will end up seeing Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. The old rivalry renewed with OU and NU both in the Top 10 and vieing for a national title. It very well could happen.

Some real KEY games this weekend and some excellent macthups that really have season long implications. Mizzou takes to the road for the first time this week and the Wildcats and Jayhawks hook up early in the week.

Lets get right to it boys, my takes and leans for this weeks action in the Big 12

Texas @ Nebraska -9.5 - The Huskers have had this one circled since their spring game, the Big 12 championship score on the scoreboard all week in Lincoln and replays from last years game stick in the minds of the rerturners, all 18 of them for NU who lost a last second heartbreaker to Colt McCoy and the Longhorns last year, a game they dominated. Texas back on their heels and reeling, staring at 3 losses after this one if they cannot beat NU.

Nebraska has a new ace in the hole with all world speedster QB Martinez making national headlines and Nebraska off a complete butt kicking of K State on ESPN last week for all the world to see. You think NU is ready for this one? Texas cannot run the ball, but can throw it, and with NU's pass rush solid and their secondary in the top 2 or 3 in the nation, at home, expect Nebraska to compete here. Bo Pelini has been waiting for this one since last December, and Texas needs this win to save their season. Texas gave OU all they wanted and then some, can they get over on NU in Lincoln and is near 10 points too many?

Kansas St -2.5 @ Kansas -In State rivalry, Kansas is struggling and K Satte is licking their wounds and now on a back to back ESPN Thursday games. Can Kansas stop RB Thomas and play like they did against Georgia Tech at home, or does K State get it going again after that Nebraska debacle? I have the answer.

Mizzou @ Texas AM -2.5 - Not sure about Mizzou in this one as they begin a brutal stretch of games and have OU on deck at home, the line opened at Texas AM -1.5 and is climbing, and word is in my line of work many big time players love AM here. I am not sold on either team, and QB Gabbert is banged up for Mizzou with a bad hip but is likely to play. Texas AM is a disappointment to date and their offense has struggled and they have been a turnover machine. This one could go either way and home field is huge for the Aggies here, and this is the Tigers true first road game after playing weak sisters all season with the exception of Illinois. Texas AM off 2 brutal games, while Mizzou buried the Buffs last week. Tough spot however for Mizzou without a running game. Very small lean to the host. I am not as confident as allot of the sharps pounding Texas AM in this one, they have only shown me how to lose all season and the Tigers are undefeated and ranked.

Okie State @ Texas Tech -3 - WOW, a 3 point line move on Texas Tech right out of the gate in this one. A tough win over a fiesty Baylor bunch last week in the Cotton Bowl for Texas Tech. Okie State can move the ball and so can Texas Tech. This is going to be a old fashion Texas Shootout in my opinion, lean to the over 69. The QB's in this game have 35 TDs combined on the year, and neither team cares about running it, although Okie State should with RB Hunter, but they refuse to. Probably cost them the game here if they dont. Lean to the Over.

Baylor @ Colorado +1 - The Baylor Bears stand at 4-2 and Colorado is reeling after a pounding in Columbia last week. QB Griffen for Baylor the real deal and is a major danger for the Buffs. Yes, Colorado beat Georgia in here, but Baylor a different animal who is VERY well coached by Art Briles, and hungry for a win after a near miss in the Cotton Bowl against Tech last week, a game they could have won. I look for Baylor to avenge a home loss last year when Griffen was out with injury and claw the Buffs in this one. Lean to the visitor.

Iowa State @ Oklahoma -23.5 - After the Cyclones allowed 68 at home against Utah last week, I cannot make a case for them here in this one as OU has a winnable game at home before traveling to Mizzou next week. Mizzou not a team this year that is a really a look ahead game as in the past few years so OU should have full attention on ISU who they barely beat last year 17-7 in Ames in a struggle. Iowa State was exposed on defense last week and OU will expose them again with QB Jones who has nearly 1500 yards and 11 TDs already. I do not like laying this many points in any conference game this time of year, but ISU comes in here deflated and beat up, OU rolls.

Big Ten Notes - Week 7
By ASA

Wisconsin Badgers (5-1, 1-5 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0, 5-1 ATS)

UW: Last week: Defeated Minnesota, 41-23
OSU: Last week: Defeated Indiana, 38-10

This is the marquee matchup in the Big Ten in week seven. Ohio State will face their biggest test to date this weekend when they travel to Madison to play the Badgers. Wisconsin is 40-4 at home since the start of the 2004 season (20-4 in Big Ten home games) while Ohio State has just three road losses in the past five years. OSU opened as a 6 point favorite but that number has fallen and is currently 4 points.

It’ll be strength vs. strength as UW brings the nation’s 11th best rushing offense (240 ypg) against OSU’s 4th best rushing defense (78 ypg allowed). UW’s Clay and White have combined to rush for 1,177 yards (6.6 ypc) and 17 touchdowns behind UW’s mammoth offensive line (avg size 6’5” and 320 lbs). Ohio State hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in the past 29 games and held the Badgers to just 2.7 ypc while garnering six sacks of UW QB Tolzien last season.

The Badgers out-gained the Buckeyes by 184 yards and had 14 more first downs in last years meeting; but lost by 18 points thanks to three defensive/special teams’ touchdowns by OSU. Buckeyes QB Terrelle Pryor is having an excellent season so far, completing 68% of his passes with 15 TD’s and just 3 INT’s. But he’s struggled in two career starts against the Badgers, completing 18/32 passes for 231 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT’s while rushing for just 55 yards on 25 carries.

Wisconsin is 15-7 ATS in its past 22 games as a home underdog while Ohio State is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as a Big Ten road favorite. Wisconsin has had two home night games against Ohio State since 2003. They upset then #1 OSU in 2003, 17-10; and lost against then #14 OSU in 2008, 17-20.

Michigan State Spartans (6-0, 4-2 ATS) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-2, 4-1 ATS)

MSU: Last week: Defeated Michigan, 34-17
ILL: Last week: Defeated Penn State, 33-13

This could be a trap game for MSU. They are coming off of two emotion-charged victories over ranked opponents (Wisconsin and Michigan) and are now playing at home against a very confident Illinois team that just notched their first ever road win over Penn State. Michigan State has won 10 of 11 in this series but lost their last home game (2006) as a 26 point favorite. MSU opened as a 7.5 point favorite and the line currently sits at an even 7 points.

MSU’s offense has displayed tremendous balance this season, averaging 248 passing ypg and 225 rushing ypg. They face a huge challenge against Illinois’ vastly improved defense, which ranks 20th nationally and shut down Penn State last Saturday in a 33-13 win (allowing just 304 ypg after allowing 403 ypg in 2009). Illinois’ defensive unit hasn’t allowed an opponent to score over 24 points in a game while MSU hasn’t been held under 30 points.

MSU has been good at limiting rushing yards against good teams. They held Wisconsin to 75 yards below its season average and Michigan to 135 yards below its season average. They’ll have another test against this Illinois offense that averages 217 rush ypg. MSU will try and slow down RB Leshoure (121 rush ypg) and force Illinois to pass more with freshman QB Scheelhaase. Scheelhaase has only attempted 98 passes this season and has 4 TD’s and 4 INT’s.

Michigan State is 11-3 ATS against Illinois since 1990. Sparty is 7-14 ATS as a Big Ten home favorite while Illinois is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a Big Ten road underdog.

Michigan Wolverines (5-1, 3-3 ATS) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-1, 3-2 ATS)

UM: Last week: Lost to Michigan State, 17-34
IOWA: Last week: Idle

The Hawkeyes have had two weeks to prepare for Michigan QB Denard Robinson after shutting down Penn State in their last game. Michigan lost its first game of the season last week and we finally saw what happens when they face a good defense. Michigan was held to their lowest output of the season, 377 yards, while MSU cruised to 536 yards and the 17-point victory. They’ll face their toughest test of the season against Iowa this weekend. Iowa is allowing just 242 ypg and 10.2 ppg this season. They haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season long and surrender just 63 rushing ypg.

Iowa will try and duplicate MSU’s gameplan against the Wolverines. MSU was able to sustain long drives and keep the dangerous Robinson off the field. With UM trailing, Robinson appeared to get flustered and he threw three interceptions (two in the redzone). Like MSU, Iowa boasts a balanced attack on offense. They average 254 passing ypg and 172 rushing ypg. Expect QB Stanzi (68%, 10 TD, 2 INT) to attack Michigan's shaky secondary.

This young UM defense has allowed over 500 yards three times this season and are 119th in pass defense. Michigan is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 Big Ten home games while Iowa is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 Big Ten road games. Iowa has covered in 8 of its last 11 visits to the Big House and they opened as a 3.5 point favorite.

Purdue Boilermakers (3-2, 2-3 ATS) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-5, 3-3 ATS)

PU: Last week: Defeated Northwestern, 20-17
MINN: Last Week: Lost to Wisconsin, 23-41

Purdue looks to start 2-0 in league play after an exciting comeback win over Northwestern last week. Freshman quarterback Rob Henry (making his first start after Robert Marve’s season ending knee injury) didn’t throw the ball well – just 6/18 for 47 yards and one interception – but he ran for 132 yards and a touchdown. Minnesota was outgained by 110 yards (-10 first downs) but took advantage of special teams gaffes by the Wildcats. Purdue opened at -4.5 and is now -5.5. The favorite is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

Purdue averages 196 rushing yards per game, good for 30th nationally. Expect the Purdue coaching staff to have a run-heavy game plan against this Minnesota defense that allows 196.3 rush yards a game, last in the Big Ten. Defensively, the Gophers are allowing 418 yards per game and 32.3 points per game – the main reason they have lost five straight games.

Minnesota is just 5-18 in West Lafayette all-time, but has won two in a row over Purdue and is 4-1 ATS in the last five. Last year’s 35-24 Minnesota win is a bit misleading. Minnesota was outgained by 121 yards (-9 first downs) but forced three turnovers, converting two into short scoring drives (also had a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown).

Purdue has been great at pressuring QB’s as they average 4 sacks per game, compared to 3 sacks all year from the Gophers. Tim Brewster has led Minnesota to a 6-20 Big Ten road record, but they are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 Big Ten roadies. The Boilermakers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.

Indiana Hoosiers (3-2, 3-2 ATS) vs. Arkansas State (2-4, 4-2 ATS)

IU: Last week: Lost to Ohio State, 10-38
ARKST: Last week: Defeated North Texas, 24-19

After back-to-back losses, Indiana should get back on track in this non-conference matchup with Arkansas State. IU QB Chappell is averaging 295 passing yards per game (70%) with 12 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions. He and WR’s Doss (24 receptions) and Belcher (35 rec) should have a huge day against this Arkansas State team that ranks 88th nationally against the pass (237.7 ypg). Indiana opened at -14 and currently sit at -12.

Arkansas State can sling the ball with talented sophomore Ryan Aplin. Aplin has thrown for 10 touchdowns compared to just 4 picks and is averaging 262 yards per game. Their strong offense has been able to keep them competitive so far this season as three of their four losses have been by a touchdown or less.

ASU is 2-3 ATS vs. Big Ten opponents, including a narrow 24-21 loss to Iowa last year as a 21 point underdog. They are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog. Indiana is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 as a double digit home favorite.

Penn State Nittany Lions (3-2, 1-4 ATS) - IDLE

PSU: Last week: Lost to Illinois, 13-33

This bye couldn’t have come at a better time for the Nittany Lions, as Penn State needs to regroup on both sides of the ball. They are just 3-3 and find themselves in a 0-2 hole in Big Ten play. They have a handful of notable injuries on their defense and their offense is averaging just 13 points per game against FBS opponents. They’ll use this week to get healthy and prepare for their next game, @Minnesota.

Northwestern Wildcats (5-1, 2-4 ATS) - IDLE

NU: Last week: Lost to Purdue, 17-20

The Wildcats had a great shot at being 6-0 heading into this week’s bye. But Northwestern did a poor job of containing the one-dimensional Henry, QB of the Boilermakers; and lost a heartbreaker at home despite outgaining Purdue by 110 yards. NU QB Persa continued his excellence against Purude, and is now completing 78% of his passes for 277 ypg with 10 touchdowns and just 2 picks. They’ll spend the bye week preparing for a home date with the #11 Spartans of Michigan State.

Study Hall - Week 7
By Judd Hall

Just when you think you know what is going on in college football, it proves that you don’t know a thing. Alabama were the class of the sport after destroying the Gators, then were dominated the following week in Columbia by the Gamecocks.

The public no doubt got burnt by the Crimson Tide last week as seven-point road pups. Will they get it right this weekend or will they be fighting with fast food folks when they don’t load up their cheesesteaks? That’s up for debate. What isn’t up for debate are the biggest line moves that Jay Kornegay has seen at the Las Vegas Hilton.

Let me first say that it’s sad to not see North Carolina on the list for the first time in two weeks. But I’m sure we’ll see them again soon on that board.

Florida is certainly getting some doubters from the bettors after losing two straight games in the SEC. While Mississippi State is coming into its own with Dan Mullen running the show, gamblers should know that Urban Meyer won and covered his only game after a two-game slide in his career. Of course, he was coaching Bowling Green at the time against Eastern Michigan, but it still counts.

Temple and Notre Dame getting pushed to bigger numbers makes sense with the teams they are both facing. Meanwhile, the Vandals and Aztecs are getting love after some good showings last weekend.

What was surprising is that we have not seen too much movement out of arguably the biggest contest on the board with Ohio State on the road facing the Badgers. The Buckeyes were opened up as 4 ½-point road favorites, but that has been shaded slightly down to four at the LV Hilton.

VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Marc Lawrence points out that being shrewd and shopping around might give a little more insight to this showdown Big Ten powers. “The sharps are very aware of Wisconsin's revenge motive as the line in this game has dropped from -6 to -3 ½.”

So why would the sharps fall over themselves to take Wisconsin in this game? Well, it comes down the lack of respect on one side of the ball. “The real question for me in this game is whether or not Ohio State’s defense is being rightfully acknowledged,” says Lawrence. “This is a unit that has held every opponent it has faced to a season low or a second-lowest yardage mark this season.”

You’re not going to find too many teams with a better group of stoppers like the Buckeyes possess. OSU is fourth against the run (78.7 YPG) and 13th against the pass (158.3 YPG) nationally. And only TCU and Boise State have better numbers in terms of total defense.

That’s not to say that Wisconsin is hopeless on defense. Quite the contrary as they rank 23rd in the country with 308.3 YPG allowed. But they weren’t the problem last year in Columbus in a 31-13 setback, allowing the Bucks to gain just 184 yards. The Badgers’ issues were Scott Tolzien and his decision making.

Tolzien tossed not one, but two interceptions that were returned for a touchdown. Those gaffes overshadow his 250 passing yards in the game. Plus, he really helped Wisky move the ball as John Clay was largely ineffective with 59 yards on 20 carries.

While the Badgers do hang tough with Ohio State, Lawrence provides some ammo for bettors looking to back the Scarlet and Gray. “OSU is 19-1 SU and 15-4-1 ATS in its last 20 Big 10 road games, with 16 of the wins by double-digit margins.” Tighten that up to spots over the last five years as road faves, and the Bucks are 18-2 SU and 15-5 ATS.

Out in Lincoln, the only thing they could talk about was the extra second that Texas got in last year’s Big XII Title Game against the Cornhuskers. The Longhorns won the game 13-12 to make the national title game in Pasadena, much to the dismay of many fans of the Horned Frogs, Bearcats and Broncos.

Nebraska has already started packing its bags for the greener pastures of the Big Ten for next season. But before they take on the Bucks, Wolverines and Nittany Lions, they’re looking to lay waste to the Big XII one last time. The betting shops are expecting them to rip Texas in this revenge spot by making the Cornhuskers 9 ½-point home favorites.

The ‘Huskers are certainly teams over now as the 5th best team in the land with their ole fashioned option offense. Taylor Martinez is running their offense like a pro, gaining 147.4 YPG on the ground to rank 4th nationally.

Bo Pelini also has his defense running strong this year after Ndamukong Suh moved onto the pros. Nebraska is holding teams to just 275.0 YPG, which is just a tick up from the 272.0 YPG they were giving up last season.

Texas comes into this game having been embarrassed by the Bruins in Austin and the Sooners beating them in the Red River Rivalry. And while the Longhorns 6th nationally in total defense (254.2 YPG), that number is a big misleading on the quality of teams they’ve played.

The Longhorns have enjoyed some success coming off of back-to-back ATS losses over the last five years, going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS.

VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Jason Johnson has only one suggestion for Texas if they want to win: get up early. “If the Longhorns want to have a chance to win in Lincoln they'll need to get on the scoreboard early and take the crowd out of the game. If they can get up by two touchdowns, they just might be able to force the Huskers to throw the ball which isn't their strength.”

Staying in the Big XII, we find Oklahoma State perfect at 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) and ranked 20th in the AP Poll. Despite the early accolades, the sportsbooks aren’t siding with them this week as Texas Tech is a 3 ½-point home “chalk” against the Cowboys.

Why are the Cowpokes coming up as road pups in this game? Bruce Marshall, one of VegasInsider.com’s expert handicappers, has a few ideas as to why the line has been set in favor of the Red Raiders. “This is a tough one (then again, they're all tough). I had been waiting for Tech to show something and it finally did last week, I was thinking that the offense had begun to lose its identity with Tuberville (who politicked VERY hard to get this job), and maybe it has to some degree, although it finally looked like the Mike Leach "O" last week, especially in the first half when Potts was on fire vs. Baylor. The thought from the pro-Tuberville crowd is that he will be able to upgrade the Red Raiders in areas where Leach was weaker (run game, defense), although have not seen much evidence of that, and the defense does not look anything special to me.”

“Thus far, OSU has looked more dangerous, but I think the key here is gauging the Cowboys schedule. It has not been terribly difficult, and they have run up big scores and big points vs. a mostly-subpar slate.” Marshall continues, “OSU finally got going in the second half last week in its first road game at Lafayette, but the "D" looked a bit leaky vs. that modest Sun Belt team, as it did a few weeks earlier vs. another Belt entry, Troy. Good shootout between QBs Weeden and Potts, and OSU's Kendall Hunter is the best RB on the field, but maybe a slight preference for Tech and the home field edge.”

vegasinsider.com

Where the action is: NCAAF Week 7 Line Moves

This is supposed to be the time when books and bettors get a clear idea of who teams are and how to bet them. But after a weekend like Week 6, football fans are scratching their heads when it comes to some of the biggest programs in the land.

We talk to Jay Rood, sportsbook manager and the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, about this week’s biggest college football line moves:

South Carolina Gamecocks at Kentucky Wildcats – Open: +6.5 Move: +4.5

South Carolina is coming off its biggest win of the year, knocking off Alabama last Saturday. Now, the Cocks are on the road against a feisty UK squad that could catch USC napping in a classic letdown spot.

“We don’t want to go too low because we’ll get a ton of Gamecock action Friday and Saturday,” says Rood. “But this Kentucky team has an underrated offense and could pull off a backdoor cover with a late touchdown.”

Ohio State Buckeyes at Wisconsin Badgers – Open: +6 Move: +3

The Buckeyes aren’t winning over bettors in Saturday's showdown at Madison. Wisconsin owns one of the best home-field advantages in football and a talented and experienced team.

“Wisconsin is great at ball control,” says Rood. “There is a lot to like about the Badgers this weekend. But, you never know, Ohio State could just come in a blast them. That’s what is great about our business – you never really know.”

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Florida Gators – Open: -9.5 Move: -7

This line has done some dancing depending on where you shop. It's moved from its opening to a touchdown and back up to -8 as of Friday night. Rood, however, won’t be budging from his current stand at -7 in favor of the Gators.

“The sharp money came in on MSU, but Florida is one of those teams that the public will play regardless,” he says. "We’re going to stay at -7, adjust the vig and see where it all plays out.”

Boise State Broncos at San Jose State Spartans – Open: +39.5 Move: 41

Week after week, bettors buy BSU expecting the Broncos to go all out in order to impress the BCS voters. Rood says BSU’s opponents draw little to no action but he doesn’t really agree with that push.

“If I were locked in a room and had to wager on one game to get out, I’d take SJSU at +41,” he jokes. “The Spartans have played some tough opponents like Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Nevada and won’t be scared of Boise.”

Air Force Falcons at San Diego State Aztecs – Open: +3.5 Move: +1

The Aztecs have been one of the best bets in college football, going 4-1 ATS heading into the weekend. San Diego State has an underrated defense and can put points on the board, which is catching the eyes of NCF bettors.

“It’s always tough to plan for that Air Force offense and how they can just run you over,” says Rood, “but San Diego State has a lot of speed on defense. They’re a decent team catching points at home in a big conference game. There is a lot of value there.”

Nevada Wolf Pack at Hawaii Warriors – Open: +8 Move: +6.5

Rood says Hawaii is sneaking under the public radar and that its win over Fresno State last weekend was a huge step for the program. The Warriors always have that home-field advantage as well, luring in opponents with a tropical paradise.

“If this game turns into a shootout, which it could, I hope I’m holding a ticket on the team with the final possession of the game,” says Rood.

Ohio State at Wisconsin: What Bettors Need to Know
By Marc Lawrence

Top-ranked Ohio State (6-0, 2-0) invades No. 16 Wisconsin (5-1, 1-1) to face the Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday.

Big bucks

Ohio State won't get to enjoy its No. 1 ranking for long.

The Buckeyes, ranked No. 1 for the first time since December 2, 2007, are 66-11-1 all-time as a No. 1 team.

They are 15-3 as a No. 1 under head coach Jim Tressel, all since 2006. Two of the losses, of course, are in national championship games.

When asked about carrying the No.1 ranking Tressel said, "We believe there is a permanent bull's eye."

Mad-town

For just the ninth time in school history and the first time since 1997, Wisconsin will host the No.1 team in the country.

The Badgers are 3-4 all-time against No.1 teams at Camp Randall Stadium. Their last win over a No. 1 team was a 21-14 victory over Michigan in 1981.

Since the start of the 2004 season, when head coach Brett Bielema joined the UW coaching staff as defensive coordinator, the Badgers have compiled a 40-4 record at Camp Randall Stadium. That is the best record in the Big Ten over that span (Ohio State is 40-5) and tied for third-best n the country.

The popular college football preview show, ESPN College Gameday, will broadcast live from Madison on Saturday morning.

So, is there an upset in the making at Camp Randall Stadium?

The elements are in place. At night. National television. Revenge in the air. Wisconsin has won 25 of its last 28 night games.

"What more do you need?" said offensive coordinator Paul Chryst. "You've got Ohio State coming in. Who gives a [bleep] about last year?"

Fuggedaboudit

Speaking about last year, Badger quarterback Scott Tolzien and his offense dominated OSU last season, out-gaining the Buckeyes 368-184 and making 22 first downs to eight for Ohio State. The Buckeyes got two interceptions for touchdowns and a kick return for a touchdown, rendering that domination moot in the disturbing loss.

Wisconsin is 15-4 with Tolzein at quarterback, averaging 33.5 points and 427 yards of total offense.

When asked if he thought Tolzien had taken anything away from last year’s debacle, Bielema answered, "I think so. I think he probably learned how to handle that situation. It’s one thing if the first one happened, but don’t let it affect you in a way where you got to learn to make sure the second one doesn’t happen, and vice versa.

"During the course of the game, it’s not what happens, it’s how you react to what happens. And he learned himself how to kind of turn those situations from negatives to positives."

New York City calling

Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor is a leading candidate in the Heisman race this season.

Pryor passed for a career-high 334 yards, completing 24 passes with three touchdowns, in last week’s win over Indiana. It marked the first 300-yard passing game for an OSU quarterback since Troy Smith in the 2006 Michigan game.

Pryor, 25-3 as a starter with the Buckeyes, now has six 300-yard total offense games at Ohio State, tied atop the all-time leaderboard in OSU history.

Taking care of business

The Badgers have not turned the ball over since the third quarter of the San Jose State game, a span of four-plus games. A turnover-free streak that long has not happened in the same season since 1988. Wisconsin is 31-5 under Bielema in games with an even or positive turnover margin.

In addition, Wisconsin has committed just 20 penalties, tied for the fewest in the country.

Behind Tolzein, running backs John Clay and James White, tight end Lance Kendricks and receiver Nick Toon, Wisconsin’s offense has been very effective. It has gone four games without a turnover and has produced 20 touchdowns in its last 22 trips inside the red zone.

Here’s the beef

Wisconsin's starting offensive line averages taller than 6-foot-5, 320 pounds and the members of the front five have combined to start 110 games in their careers. Three of the five are on major award watch lists.

Thanks to the "Thick red line," Tolzien's career completion percentage of almost 66 percent is tops in school history and third-best among active QBs in the country with at least 20 games played (trailing only Houston's Case Keenum and Boise State's Kellen Moore).

By the numbers

• The series between the Buckeyes and the Badgers, which dates back to 1913, shows Ohio State with a 53-17-5 lead.

• OSU is 24-10-2 in Madison, 8-5-1 over the last 14 meetings and has captured the last three contests between the schools.

• The last three games in Madison have been decided by a total of 15 points, where Ohio State has averaged 13 PPG.

• The Buckeyes have won 39 of their last 43 Big Ten games and have won their last eight conference road games against AP Top 25 opponents.

• Ohio State is 19-1 SU and 15-4-1 ATS in its last 20 games on the conference road, with 16 of the wins by double-digit margins.

• OSU is 22-1 in games in which Pryor throws at least one touchdown pass.

• The Badgers are 40-4 at home since 2004 and have won 25 of the last 28 night games.

• Last Wisconsin win over a No. 1 ranked team was in 1981.

Saturday's Analysis

Highlighted games

Pitt is 7-1 in last eight games vs Syracuse, winning last five, with four wins by 10+ points, but they're just 1-3 vs I-A opponents this season, beating FIU 44-17. This is Syracuse's first home game against a I-A foe; they played two I-AA teams here. Panthers are 7-3 as road favorite since '06; Orangemen are 5-11 as home dog since '07, 5-5 the last two years.

Michigan State won eight of last nine games vs Illinois, covering seven of last eight; Spartans are off 3rd straight win vs rival Michigan, but they've won last two years after beating Wolverines. Illini covered their last five road games, winning easily at Penn State last week- they're 3-0 as a dog this year. Four of Spartans' five I-A wins are by 10+ points.

South Carolina won last 10 games vs Kentucky, winning last five visits here, all by 7 or less points, but after shocking #1 Alabama last week, do Gamecocks have what it takes to win a tough road game? Kentucky lost wild 37-34 game to Auburn last week, after being down 31-14; they are 9-7 as home dog since 2006. Last five Kentucky games went over total.

Home team won four of last five Mississippi State-Florida games, with Bulldogs losing last two visits here, 35-9/52-0, but these Bulldogs are lot better than those Bulldogs, converting 30 of last 54 on 3rd down. Mullen was Meyer's OC, so he knows Gators inside/out, and Florida has been struggling, losing last two games, running ball 64 times for just 172 yards while allowing 64 points in those two games.

USC won last six games vs California, covering four of last five; Cal lost last four visits here, by 14-14-6-2 points, but didn't score TD vs USC in last two meetings. Trojans scored 31-35 points last two weeks, but lost both games, giving up 419 rushing yards- they're very thin on defensive side of ball. Cal is 0-2 on road, losing 52-31 at Nevada, 10-9 at Arizona.

Nebraska lost tense 13-12 Big 12 title game to Texas LY, when McCoy killed clock with 0:01 left, setting up winning FG; underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in this series, with Longhorns winning all seven, taking 22-20 and 27-24 decisions in last two visits here. Texas lost last two games, giving up 62 points. All four Nebraska games this season went over total.

Dogs are 6-1-2 vs spread in last nine Iowa-Michigan games; Hawkeyes lost three of last four visits to Big House, losing 20-6/30-17 in last two. Iowa outscored last three opponents 51-7 in second half; faves are 4-0 vs spread in their '10 games. Hawkeyes lost 34-27 at Arizona in only other road game so far. Michigan allowed 1,104 total yards in last two games.

Oregon State won, covered last six games vs Washington, winning four in a row in Seattle, all by 8+ points. OSU's last two games were decided by total of five points- they're +8 in turnovers. Beavers allowed 27+ points in all five games, but U-Dub QB Locker has quad issue, didn't practice Wednesday. All five Oregon State games went over the total.

Home side won last eight Oklahoma State-Texas Tech games; Cowboys lost last six visits here (1-5 vs spread); Tech scored 44.8 ppg in last five played here, but also allowed 90 points in last two games, vs Iowa State/ Baylor; they're 1-1 at home, beating SMU 35-27, losing 24-14 to Texas, which is last game Longhorns won. Over is 5-0 in Oklahoma St. games.

Ohio State won, covered last three games vs Wisconsin, winning by 18-3-21 points; Buckeyes won three of last four visits here, winning by 3-5-16 points, with average total of 31.8. Badgers outgained Ohio State in LY's game 368-184 but lost 31-13. Home team is 6-0 vs spread in OSU games this season. Buckeyes won only road games, 24-13 at Illinois.

Underdogs are 7-2 SU in last nine Arkansas-Auburn games; Razorbacks won last two visits here, 25-22/27-10. Hogs ran ball for 188-221 yards in last two meetings- they won both road games in '10, 31-24 at Georgia, 24-17 over Texas A&M in Dallas. Auburn scored 124 points last three games, with nine takeaways (+5). Hogs didn't score second half TD in either of their last two games. Former Arkansas OC Malzahn is now in same capacity for Auburn.

Air Force won last three games by 6-8-22 points; their only loss was by FG at Oklahoma- they've won last three games vs San Diego State, by 12-25-32 points, with underdogs 4-1 vs spread in their last five visits here. Under is 4-1 in last five Air Force games, 3-0 in Aztecs' last three. San Diego State is 3-0 allowing 21 or less points, 0-2 if they allow more.

Nevada is 6-0, winning road games 27-13 at BYU, 44-26 at UNLV, but Wolf Pack lost last five visits to Hawai'i, with average total in their last four visits here, 77.8. Home team won nine of last ten series games, with dogs covering the last four. Nevada has 316+ rushing yards in four of its last five games. Hawai'i scored 90 points in last two games-- four of their last five games went over the total.

Rest of the Card

-- Miami won last five games va Duke, covering three of last four; they won last two visits here, 49-31/20-15. 'canes are 2-0 as road fave so far this year, winning 31-3 at Pitt, 30-21 at Clemson.
-- Rutgers covered last seven games vs Army, winning last six; average score in last five meetings is 35-8. Army lost last three visits here by 27-44-12 points. Cadets have +12 turnover ratio, are 3-0 on road in '10.
-- Miami OH lost last two road games 51-13/45-3; they got outscored in first half of its last three games, 87-16. Central Michigan is 1-4 vs I-A opponents. Chippewas' last four games went over the total.
-- Underdog is 5-1 vs spread in last six Maryland-Clemson games, with Terps' last three visits here all decided by 3 or less points. Tigers lost last three games, allowing 26 ppg. Under is 3-0-1 in their last four tilts.
-- Faves are 10-1 vs spread in last 11 Minnesota-Purdue games; Gophers allowed 235 rushing yards/game over last four games, but they're 3-0 as a dog this year. Minnesota's last three games went over the total.
-- Underdog won last three NC State-East Carolina games; Wolfpack is 2-0 on road this year, winning 28-21 at UCF, 45-28 at Ga Tech. ECU allowed 42+ points in four of five games, but won two of them.
-- Vanderbilt lost 12 of last 13 games vs Georgia, but covered three of last four; Vandy is 4-2 vs spread in last six visits here. Dawgs lost four of last five games, but scored 34 ppg in two games with WR Green.
-- Alabama won last six games vs Ole Miss, but only one of last five was by more than 4 points; Rebels lost last six visits here, but last two were tough 24-20/26-23 losses. Nutt is at his best when a big underdog.
-- Oklahoma won last six games vs Iowa State, covering four of last five; only one of Sooners' five wins this year was by more than eight points. Cyclones gave up 68 points at home to Utah last week- not good.
-- Bowling Green allowed 47.3 ppg in last three games; they lost two of last three visits to Temple, with losses by 17-14 points. Faves are 4-2 in series. Five of six Bowling Green games went over total.
-- Ball State is 8-2 in last 10 games vs Eastern Michigan, winning five in row, with three of last four by 18+ points. EMU lost its last four games overall by average score of 52-14. Dogs are 5-2 vs spread in series.
-- Akron is 0-6, but 2-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 37-15-11 points; they've had only one takeaway in last four games. Ohio has 451 rushing yards in last two games. Dogs are 6-4 vs spread in series.
-- Colorado has been scoreless at half in three of last four games; they're 2-0 at home, beating Hawai'i/Georgia. Baylor has 1,185 TY in last two games. Favorite is 5-0 vs spread in their games this season.
-- UNLV is 0-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 28-23-39 pts; Rebels lost last three visits to Colorado State by 13-21-35 points. Rams are favored for first time in '10. Last three UNLV games went over.
-- Notre Dame is 0-1-2 as home favorite this year, winning home games by 11-6 points (lost to Michigan/Stanford). Western Michigan is 1-2 as underdog this season. Five of last six Irish games stayed under total.
-- Northern Illinois won last three games, scoring 38.3 ppg; they've won last four games vs Buffalo (3-1 vs spread). Since 2006, Bulls are 17-9 as road underdog (1-2 in '10). Three of last four NIU games went over.
-- Virginia is 10-2 in last dozen games vs North Carolina, winning last six played here (6-0 vs spread); underdog won last three series meetings SU. Tar Heels won last three games overall, allowing only 15.3 ppg.
-- Navy won four of last five games vs SMU (38-35/34-7 last two years) Middies trailed at half in their last three games. Dogs are 5-1 vs spread in SMU's 2010 games; Mustangs scored 69 points in two road tilts (1-1)
-- Boston College won three of last four games vs Florida State, but they got killed last three weeks, losing by 19-18-27 points (outscored 36-7 in second half). Seminoles are 2-0 as home favorite, winning 34-10/31-0.
-- Wake Forest lost last four games, last two by combined total of five points (20-24/27-28); they lost last two games vs Virginia Tech, 27-6 in '06, 17-10 in '04. Hokies won, covered last four games after 0-2 start.
-- Idaho scored 30-34-36 points in last three games, converting 24-46 on third down; they're 2-1 as favorite this year, but are 2-3 in last five tilts with Louisiana Tech. Tech is 1-4 vs I-A teams (-6 in TOs last 5 games).
-- TCU is 2-0 as home favorite this year, winning 45-10/45-0; with BCS standings coming out Sunday, Frogs have to win by as much as they can to impress pollsters. They beat BYU 38-7/32-7 the last two seasons.
-- Underdogs won all three UTEP-UAB games, with average total, 60.7. Miners threw ball for 1,211 yards in those three games, winning 36-17 in only visit here. UAB was outscored 81-21 in first half last four games.
-- Arizona won last four games vs Washington State, last three by 52-18 average score; underdogs covered Arizona's last five visits to Pullman. Wazzu lost its three Pac-10 games by 34-14-20 points.
-- Utah won nine of last 10 games vs Wyoming, taking last three by total score of 112-17; Utes are 4-0-1 vs spread as favorite this year, winning road games 56-14 at New Mexico, 68-27 at Iowa State last week.
-- Kent State is 0-3 on road this year, losing by 13-24-6 points. Toledo is 0-2 at home, losing 41-2 to Arizona, 20-15 to Wyoming. Three of last four Kent State games stayed under the total.
-- Texas A&M allowed 62 points in losing last two games; they're -8 in turnovers last three games, coughing ball up 14 times. Underdogs are 3-1 in last four A&M-Missouri games, 3-0 in last three played here.
-- Memphis lost last two games by combined score of 104-7. giving up 533 rushing yards. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in last six series games, 3-1 in Southern Miss's last four visits to Liberty Bowl.
-- Houston won six of last eight games vs crosstown rival Rice, but 1-3 vs spread in last four; dogs covered Cougars' last three visits here. Keep in mind Houston is using its 3rd-string QB due to injuries.
-- Tulsa won, covered last five games vs Tulane, winning by average of 43-12; Hurricane has 971 rushing yards in last three series games. Green Wave lost last two visits to Tulsa, 56-7/38-3.
-- Boise State won last nine games vs New Mexico State, covering six of them; Broncos won last four visits here, by 17-3-7-37 points. Boise won its two road games this year, 51-6 at Wyoming, 59-0 at New Mexico St.
-- Fresno State won its last five games vs New Mexico State, but is 1-3 vs spread in last four; Aggies lost last two visits here, 24-17/23-18. In its last two games vs I-A opponents, Fresno allowed 55-49 points.
-- Arkansas State is 2-4, losing games by 26-7-7-10 pts. Indiana allowed 80 points in last two games-- three of their last four games stayed under total. Hoosiers are 1-1 as favorite this season, 0-1 at home.
-- Georgia Tech allowed 20+ in all five games vs I-A opponents; they're playing Clemson next. Middle Tennessee is 1-3 vs I-A teams, losing by 7-9-29 points- they're -9 in turnovers, coughing ball up 13 times.
-- UL-Monroe has been outscored 51-15 in second half last three weeks; ULM had 290 rushing yards LY in 21-18 win vs Western Kentucky, the only series meeting. WKU is 0-5, but covered their last two games.
-- Troy won, covered last four games vs UL-Lafayette, scoring exactly 48 points last three meetings (1,190 rushing yards). ULL was outscored 105-21 in second half of games- they're 5-0 vs spread after a loss.
-- Florida International won last three games vs North Texas, scoring an average of 38.3 ppg; they've been outscored 87-42 in second half of last four games. Four of last five UNT games were decided by 5 or less pts.

Tips and Trends

Texas Longhorns at Nebraska Cornhuskers

LONGHORNS: Texas is reeling, as they've lost consecutive games and are out of the national polls for the first time since 2000. Texas is 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS overall this season. Texas will be the biggest underdog they've been in quite some time, and they are looking to avoid losing 3 games in a row for the first time since 1997. The Longhorns are really struggling on offense, as they have the 79th best scoring offense at 24.8 PPG. QB Garrett Gilbert is having a tough time grasping this offense, forcing the Longhorns to be more one dimensional than they'd like. Gilbert has thrown for 1,150 YDS this season with 4 TD's, but he also has 5 turnovers. Texas is coming off their bye, so it's quite likely that Coach Brown has some tricks up his sleeve. After all, Texas and Brown have been dominant in the game following Oklahoma week. Defensively, Texas needs focus on stopping the run and making tackles at the point of impact. The Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. The Longhorns are 1-6 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Longhorns are 5-2 ATS last 7 games as a road underdog.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - WR Mike Davis (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 13

CORNHUSKERS: (-9.5, O/U 46.5) Nebraska has waited what seems like forever to get another chance at Texas. The Cornhuskers are ranked 5th in the country, their best ranking since 2001. Nebraska has lost 8 of the past 9 meetings SU with Texas, and Nebraska is confident that today will be different. The Cornhuskers are led by freshman QB Taylor Martinez. Martinez has 1,400 total yards combined and 15 TD's overall this season. Martinez has been a huge surprise to the Cornhuskers, and has made this team a legit national championship contender. Against FBS teams, Nebraska has scored at least 38 PTS in every game this year. Defensively, Nebraska is every bit as good as they were last year. The Cornhuskers have only allowed one team to score more than 17 PTS against them. For the season, Nebraska is allowing 12.8 PPG, the 5th fewest in the nation. The Cornhuskers are 10-4 ATS against a team with a winning record. Nebraska is 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Cornhuskers are 19-3-1 ATS last 23 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 14-3 last 17 games in October.

Key Injuries - LB Will Compton (foot) is questionable.

Projected Score: 31 (SIDE of the Day)

Ohio St. Buckeyes at Wisconsin Badgers

BUCKEYES: (-4, O/U 49) Ohio St. is likely playing their toughest game of the season to date today. Anyone looking at betting on Ohio St. must realize that this line has come down from -6 down to -3.5. The Buckeyes are the #1 team in the nation, thanks to a perfect 6-0 SU record. Almost as impressive as their 6-0 SU record is their 5-1 ATS record. the Buckeyes have handled Wisconsin the past 3 years, so the Badgers will be excited for some revenge. QB Terrelle Pryor is a leading Heisman Trophy contender, as he is the leader of this championship caliber team. Pryor has accounted for more than 1,700 total YDS this season through the air and on the ground this year, in addition to 18 TD's. Ohio St. has a very well balanced offense, ranking in the top 40 in both passing and rushing yards this year. Overall, the Buckeyes are averaging 43.2 PPG while allowing only 13.5 PPG. Defensively, Ohio St. has only allowed 2 teams to score more than 13 PTS against them. Today will mark only the 2nd time this season the Buckeyes will be a single digit favorite. The Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Ohio St. is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win. The Buckeyes are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a road favorite. Ohio St. is 29-11 ATS in their last 40 conference games.

Buckeyes are 23-4 ATS last 27 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Under is 7-0-1 last 8 road games.

Key Injuries - TE Jake Stoneburner (ankle) is probable.

Projected Score: 31 (OVER-Total of the Day)

BADGERS: Wisconsin has won 40 of their last 44 games SU at home, a trend they hope continues when they face the number 1 team in the nation tonight. The Badgers are 5-1 SU this year, but only 1-5 ATS. Their lone win ATS wise was against a non FBS opponent. Today will mark the first time this season the Badgers will be the listed underdog. Wisconsin is scoring points this season, as they are averaging 37.2 PPG. That average places them 16th in the nation, with much credit going to QB Scott Tolzien. Tolzien has thrown for 1,200 YDS and 7 TD's this year to balance what is already a formidable rushing attack. The Badgers are averaging 240 YPG on the ground, thanks to the 2 headed attack of John Clay and James White. The biggest concern for Wisconsin tonight is their defense, as they have allowed 57 PTS in their past 2 games combined. For the Badgers to win this game, their defense will have to play their best game of the year. The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October. The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Badgers are 9-4-1 ATS last 14 games as a home underdog.
Over is 8-2 last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Key Injuries - LB Chris Borland (shoulder) is out.

Projected Score: 24

SEC Breakdown - Week 7
By Brian Edwards

If we learned anything from a wild Week 6 of college football, it’s that the SEC is officially wide open for the taking. In fact, nobody is dead yet, not even Vanderbilt!

In fact, the Commodores, with a 1-1 record in league play, are just one-half game back of South Carolina for the lead in the SEC East. Remember, only Florida, Georgia and Tennessee have represented the East Division in the SEC Championship Game since its inception in 1992.

Now let’s take a look at the SEC games for Week 7…

**Vanderbilt at Georgia**

As of early this morning, most betting shops had Georgia (2-4 straight up, 2-4 against the spread) listed as a 14-point favorite with a total of 48 ½. Bettors can take the Commodores to win outright for a plus-450 return (risk $100 to win $450).

Vanderbilt (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) has won two of its last three games both SU and ATS, including last week’s 52-6 home win over Eastern Michigan as a 25 ½-point ‘chalk.’ The 58 combined points inched ‘over’ the 55-point total. Larry Smith threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns without being intercepted. Smith also ran for a score, while Warren Norman had 16 ‘touches’ (14 rushes, 2 receptions) for 106 yards and a pair of rushing TDs.

Vandy lost its season opener by a 23-21 count to Northwestern, but it still covered the spread as a three-point home underdog. In Week 2, the Commodores went down 27-3 to LSU in their SEC opener, but they bounced back and beat Ole Miss 28-14 as 11 ½-point road underdogs the following week.

Georgia snapped a four-game losing streak by trouncing Tennessee 41-14 between the hedges last Saturday. The Dawgs easily hooked up their backers as 11-point home favorites. Redshirt freshman QB Aaron Murray completed 17-of-25 passes for 266 yards and two TDs without throwing a pick. Also, the Tampa Plant High School product ran for two scores, including a 35-yard TD scamper that drew first blood for UGA early in the first quarter. A.J. Green had six receptions for 96 yards and one TD.

UGA owns a 22-29-1 spread record as a home favorite during Mark Richt’s 10-year tenure.

Vandy LB Chris Marve is second in the SEC in tackles per game with 9.8. After missing last week's game after having his knee scoped on Oct. 6, Marve has been upgraded to 'probable' and will start at UGA. He returned to practice on Wednesday, according to the Tennessean. DE Adam Smotherman will make his season debut after ACL surgery last spring. He won't start but will get 10-15 plays.

UGA running back Caleb King has been suspended for two games after getting arrested Monday for failure to appear at a court date for a speeding ticket. King, the team’s second-leading rusher, was the 11th UGA player arrested this year. He had a team-high 58 rushing yards on 13 carries against the Vols last week. Look for Washaun Ealey to get the bulk of the carries vs. Vandy.

Kickoff is slated for 12:20 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.

**Arkansas at Auburn**

As of early this morning, most books were listing Auburn (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 60 or 60 ½. Bettors can back the Razorbacks on the money line for a plus-155 payout (risk $100 to win $155).

Gene Chizik’s squad remained unbeaten but barely escaped Lexington unscathed in last week’s 37-34 victory at Kentucky. The Wildcats covered the number as six-point home underdogs. Cam Newton carried the load for the Tigers, running 28 times for 198 yards and four touchdowns. Newton completed 13-of-21 passes for 210 yards but was intercepted once.

Arkansas (4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) had an open date following its crushing loss to Alabama. The week off did the Hogs good, as they bounced back in Week 6 to beat Texas A&M by a 24-17 count as six-point favorites at Cowboys Stadium. Ryan Mallett connected on 27-of-38 throws for 310 passing yards with three TDs and one interception.

Auburn is 2-2 ATS as a home favorite this year, 5-4 ATS as a home ‘chalk’ on Chizik’s watch. Meanwhile, Arkansas owns a 5-4 spread record in nine games as a road underdog since Bobby Petrino took over in 2008.

Mallett has a 13/6 TD-INT ratio and leads the SEC in passing yards per game (349.6).

Newton has a 12/5 TD-INT ratio, but he’s an even bigger threat when he takes off and runs. In fact, Newton leads the SEC in rushing with 672 yards and nine touchdowns. He averages 6.5 yards per carry.

The ‘over’ is 3-3 overall for Auburn, 2-2 in its four home games. The ‘under’ is 3-1 overall for Arkansas, 1-0 in its only true road game (a 31-24 win at UGA).

When these schools met in Fayetteville last year, Petrino’s team cruised to a 44-23 win as a 1 ½-point road underdog. Mallett threw for 274 yards and two TDs, while Michael Smith ran for 145 yards and one TD.

Arkansas has won three of the last four head-to-head meetings with Auburn both SU and ATS, including both of its road trips to the Loveliest Village on the Plains in 2006 and 2008.

CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**South Carolina at Kentucky**

This is the definition of a classic letdown spot for South Carolina (4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) after beating the No. 1 team in the nation and then going on the road as a favorite for a conference game. Most spots installed the Gamecocks as six-point favorites last Sunday night, but the number has slowly crept down to five at most books. The total is 55 and UK is plus-175 on the money line (risk $100 to win $175).

Kentucky (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) is 3-0 ATS at home but it has dropped its first three SEC games under first-year head coach Joker Phillips. UK gave Auburn fits before coming up short last Saturday night. Randall Cobb kept UK in the game with yet another dynamic performance. Cobb’s stat line looked like this: seven receptions for 68 yards and one touchdown, 11 rushes for 47 yards and two TDs and a six-yard TD pass in his lone throwing attempt. And, oh yeah, 86 more yards of returns on special teams. That’s 207 all-purpose yards and four TDs by my count.

Steve Spurrier’s team went winless in SEC road games last year. In fact, the Gamecocks haven’t won an SEC road game since beating UK 24-17 as 2 ½-point favorites in ’08. Stephen Garcia, a redshirt freshman at the time, came off the bench to complete 10-of-14 passes for 169 yards and one TD, a seven-yard scoring strike midway through the final stanza to put SC in front for good by a 21-17 score.

Garcia played the best game of his career last week in SC’s 35-21 win over Alabama as a 6 ½-point home underdog. He completed 17-of-20 passes for 201 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. Garcia also had a key scramble early on, breaking a tackle on fourth and one and converting a first down that was followed by a TD several plays later. CBS analyst Gary Danielson suggested several times that that run was the key play of the game that came at a critical juncture. Marcus Lattimore enjoyed another banner performance, too, rushing for 93 yards and two TDs on 23 workmanlike carries. Lattimore also had two catches for 16 yards and one TD. Alshon Jeffery pulled down seven receptions for 127 yards and two TDs.

Lattimore is fifth in the SEC in rushing with 459 yards. The freshman sensation is second in the SEC in TDs with nine (eight rushing, one receiving). Jeffery leads the SEC in every receiving category with 34 catches for 625 yards and four TDs.

Phillips made the correct decision in August when he selected senior Mike Hartline as his starting QB. Hartline has responded with his best year to date, as evidenced by a 9/3 TD-INT ratio. He has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,442 yards.

UK senior RB Derrick Locke is listed as “doubtful” with a shoulder stinger and will likely be a game-time decision. Locke is a poor man’s Darren Sproles who can get it done running, catching the ball out of the backfield or on special teams in the return game. Locke is fourth in the SEC in rushing with 576 yards. He has seven rushing TDs and a 5.3 YPC average.

When these teams met in Columbia last year, South Carolina held on for a 28-26 victory but the ‘Cats took the cash as 9 ½-point underdogs.

South Carolina is 4-2 ATS in six games as a road favorite during Spurrier’s tenure.

The ‘over’ has cashed in five consecutive games for UK. The ‘Cats have seen only one ‘under,’ which came in their 23-16 season-opening win at Louisville.

The ‘over’ is 3-1 overall for South Carolina, cashing in its lone road game at Auburn.

The ‘over’ has hit in the last three UK-SC games.

ESPN2 will have the telecast at 6:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Mississippi State at Florida**

Florida (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) has lost back-to-back games for just the second time in Urban Meyer’s six-year tenure. The Gators haven’t lost three in a row since late in the 1999 campaign. They went down at home last week when LSU got a TD late in the final minute for a 33-29 come-from-behind victory. The Tigers won outright as 6 ½-point underdogs.

As of early this morning, most betting shops had UF favored by either 7 ½ or eight. The number opened around nine at most books Sunday night, but it was down to seven by Monday afternoon. Since late Wednesday, most spots have come off the key number to either 7 ½ or eight. The total is 47 and MSU is plus-250 on the money line.

Florida has only been a single-digit home favorite six times on Meyer’s watch. The Gators are 5-1 ATS in those situations, with the lone non-cover coming in last week’s loss to LSU.

Mississippi State (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) has won three straight games, including last week’s 47-24 win at Houston as a 4 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ Vick Ballard stole the show by rushing for three touchdowns and 134 yards on just 14 carries.

UF’s most explosive offensive weapon is RB Jeff Demps, but he did not play last week due to a foot injury even though he was listed as ‘probable’ all week. The case has been the same this week (‘probable’ all week), but Meyer said Demps was “50-50 health-wise” after Thursday’s practice. QB John Brantley is also dealing with injuries to his ribs and shoulder, but he’s expected to start.

When these teams met in Starkville last season, Mississippi St. gave top-ranked UF fits and had a 19-16 lead early in the fourth quarter. However, the Gators would rally to take a 29-19 win, but they failed to cover the spread as 23-point favorites.

The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for UF, 3-1 in its home assignments. Totals have been a wash for MSU, but the ‘over’ has cashed in back-to-back games.

Mississippi St. is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these league rivals.

Kickoff is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.

**Ole Miss at Alabama**

As of early this morning, most books had Alabama (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) tabbed as a 20 ½-point favorite with a total of 56.

Nick Saban’s team is coming off its first regular-season loss since the Iron Bowl in 2007. The Tide went down 35-21 at South Carolina in Week 6 at Williams-Brice Stadium. Greg McElroy threw for 315 yards and two TDs without an interception, but he did cough up a fumble and the ground attack never got going. Mark Ingram was limited to 41 rushing yards and Trent Richardson had just 23 yards.

Ole Miss had an open date that was preceded by consecutive home wins over Fresno State (55-38) and Kentucky (42-35). The Rebels are 1-1 in SEC play since they lost to Vandy 28-14 in Week 3.

Going back to Houston Nutt’s days at Arkansas, his teams are 7-0 ATS with three outright wins when listed as a double-digit underdog since 2005. Also, the Rebels are 4-0 ATS as road ‘dogs on Nutt’s watch.

Granted, Ole Miss hasn’t faced the toughest of competition to date, but it nonetheless leads the SEC in scoring offense. The Rebels average 37.2 points per game.

Bama leads the SEC in scoring defense, giving up just 13.3 PPG.

As a home favorite under Saban, the Tide own a 10-10 spread record. With that said, we should note ‘Bama’s 3-0 record both SU and ATS at Bryant-Denny Stadium this year. It has wins over San Jose St. (48-3), Penn St. (24-3) and Florida (31-6) in Tuscaloosa.

The ‘under’ is 2-0-1 in Alabama’s home games this year, while the ‘under’ cashed in the Rebels’ lone road assignment at Tulane.

Alabama WR Julio Jones has been upgraded from 'doubtful' to probable and will start. Jones suffered a broken bone in his hand that required surgery Monday.

ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 9:10 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

The Las Vegas Hilton has posted a number for LSU’s non-conference home game against McNeese St. The Tigers are favored by 42.

During Thursday's edition of the Power Hours on VI Radio, BoDog Sportsbook Manager Richard Gardner said that the website has received the most one-sided action on Ohio St. minus four (at Wisconsin) and Utah minus 20 1/2 (at Wyoming).

Spurrier is now 3-1 in four head-to-head meetings against Saban. Spurrier led Florida to a pair of wins over Saban’s LSU teams.

Alabama leads the SEC in turnover margin (+7), while Ole Miss is last (-3).

South Carolina is the SEC’s best team in the red zone, scoring in 19 of 20 chances with 17 touchdowns.

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