Irish Aerial Assault
By SportsPic
Trojans have dominated this intersectional rivalry of late winning the past seven encounters by an average of 27.0 points per game cashing six of the contests (6-1 ATS). The past two meetings has seen Trojans outscore Irish by a whopping 76-3 covering as 16.5 point favorites in South Bend ('07) and 33.5 point faves at the Coliseum last year. That was then, this is now. The USC offense, although balanced (222.6 PY, 208.2 RY) is not as overpowering as years past managing just 28.8 points per game overall, 20.3 PPG on the highway. Irish, on the other hand guided by QB Clausen's 1544 passing yards (10.4 YAtt) 12 TD's have recorded 32.6 points/game. Little doubt USC has a great defense surrendering only 8.6 PPG on 173.8 passing, 64.8 rushing yards/game but lack of offense puts them in dangerous territory handing Irish 10 points in their own back yard. Consider the home squad, Irish enter 11-5 ATS it's last sixteen in October, 8-3 ATS playing with rest. Besides, Trojans haven't responded well as Double Digit road favorites going 1-5 against-the-number the past six situations.
Rivalries Renewed
By Judd Hall
Conference titles and possible national championship hopes are on the line in a pair of early games this Saturday. It all starts in the land of steers and fried twinkies (I bet you thought I’d say something else) with the Red River Rivalry. Then we head to South Bend to see the Fighting Irish play host to Southern California.
Oklahoma vs. Texas – 12:00 p.m. EDT, ABC
This game has not only decided who would take home the Big XII South title for seven of the last eight seasons, but it also gives the victor better footing for a national title game berth. Well…it usually gives the winner a better chance. We all remember how last year the Sooners wound up winning the conference championship and got a trip to Miami to get beaten by Florida last year. The Longhorns weren’t too happy about that as they came back and beat Oklahoma 45-35 as seven-point pups. If that doesn’t serve as motivation, then I don’t know what will.
Texas (5-0 straight up, 1-4 against the spread) is currently listed as a three-point “chalk” with a total of 52. Bettors can back the Sooners to win outright for a modest plus-140 return (risk $100 to win $140).
The biggest thing to pay attention to this week is how well Sam Bradford will do for Oklahoma (3-2 SU, 1-3 ATS). Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner came back from a shoulder injury suffered in the season opener against BYU. And you could see an immediate improvement in the Sooners’ offense as they racked up 586 total yards, 389 coming through the air in a 33-7 win over Baylor. Bradford went 27 for 49 on his pass attempts for all 389 yards and a touchdown. What’s scary is that he could have had better number had his receiving corp not dropped 10 passes that were on target.
There is a reason to be optimistic that the Sooners will not drop those passes this Saturday with the word that wide receiver Ryan Broyles may be back in the lineup. Broyles was thought to be out for up to six weeks with a fractured scapula, but that was shortened to just two weeks last week. How big of a boon is this for OU? Broyles missed last week’s game and still is the team’s top receiver with 346 yards and seven scores on 23 receptions.
Mack Brown’s Longhorns have managed to stay perfect, but have not beaten anyone in a convincing fashion in league play so far. The pollsters were taking notice of that last Saturday by dropping Texas down to No. 3 on the AP Poll after a so-so 38-14 win against the Buffaloes as a 34-point home favorite.
A big reason for the uninspiring play has been Texas’ Heisman candidate, Colt McCoy. The senior gunslinger has thrown 10 touchdowns to just six interceptions this season – easily shaping up to be the worst season in Austin. Despite the lackluster numbers, the ‘Horns lead the nation in scoring by averaging 47.2 points per game.
The Longhorns are also extremely advantageous when it comes to taking the ball away from the opposition. We can see that from the fact that they have 14 takeaways this season. That ability helped Texas win last year’s matchup by picking off Bradford twice.
This series as a whole goes to Texas, which is 58-40-5 overall. The Longhorns have dominated the rivalry recently with a 3-1 SU mark. Even more important for our needs is that Texas has covered the last four meetings.
Oklahoma hasn’t fared too well in games as an underdog in games after facing the Bears. That’s evident by a 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS record. The ‘under’ is a perfect 4-0 in this spot.
Southern California at Notre Dame – 3:30 p.m. EDT, NBC
The word on the street (or at least amongst the droning heads on television) is that Charlie Weis’ job is on the line this weekend. All he has to do is beat a school that Notre Dame (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS) hasn’t won against since George W. Bush’s first term in office.
If there is a plus side for the Fighting Irish, it’s that this is arguably the best team they’ve had with Weis running the show. Notre Dame ranks 10th in the country with an offense that is averaging 470.0 total YPG. It also doesn’t hurt that the Irish’s starting QB Jimmy Clausen leads the country in passing efficiency with a 179.25 rating.
What could prove problematic for the Golden Domers is their lack of defense. Notre Dame is No. 100 out of 120 Football Bowl Subdivision schools by giving up 403.2 YPG this season. Of course, they’ve played some pretty good competition.
The saving grace for the Irish is this isn’t the same ol’ Trojans they’re used to facing. Gone are Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez. Now they must face off with Matt Barkley. The true freshman may have won is first road test at Ohio State, but he’s still a little wet behind the ears. Barkley has completed just 58.9 percent of his passes for 958 yards with three scores and two picks. He’s also been sacked five times this season.
Southern Cal doesn’t have to rely on Barkley to win games for them right now because of a stellar defense. The Trojans are sixth in the nation with a stopping unit that surrenders 238.6 YPG this season. To be fair, USC hasn’t played anyone with an offense that is worth a damn.
Most betting shops have installed the Trojans as 10 ½-point road favorites with a total that’s holding steady at 50. You can ride the Fighting Irish to pull off the upset for a downright juicy plus-320 return (risk $100 to win $320).
This series has been decidedly one-sided recently as I mentioned with USC winning seven consecutive fixtures. The Trojans have been an ATM for gamblers in this run as well with a 6-1 ATS mark.
Is it worth taking the low risk-high reward money line play on Notre Dame? Not really. The Irish are a lowly 1-5 SU in home games where they are listed as at least 10-point home pups. However, we should feel confident in taking them to cover as they’re 4-2 ATS. And if you fancy playing totals, then you may want to consider playing the ‘under.’ The Golden Domers have seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 in those six games where they were double-digit home ‘dogs.
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Tips and Trends
Miami Florida at Central Florida
Miami (-14, O/U 45.5): Talent-wise the ninth-ranked Hurricanes should cover this number. The question, though, with Miami is consistency. The Hurricanes lost by 24 points to Virginia Tech, but have beaten Florida State and Oklahoma. Sophomore quarterback Jacory Harris has had a breakout season to lead the Hurricanes. He’s thrown for 1,225 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has been picked off seven times. Miami has failed to cover nine of the last 12 times it has been a road favorite. This is a non-conference game for Miami. The Hurricanes have a big ACC matchup next week against Clemson. Miami is 1-6 against the spread when meeting Conference USA schools and 1-5 against the number off back-to-back home games. The Hurricanes failed to cover against Central Florida last year as a 16 ½-point home favorite, winning 20-14. Miami has a cluster injury problem in its defensive line with several starters doubtful.
The Under has cashed in 23 of Miami’s last 29 non-conference games.
The Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their past six non-conference matchups.
Key Injuries - Safety Randy Phillips (arm) is doubtful.
Defensive lineman Eric Moncur (groin) is doubtful.
Defensive lineman Josh Holmes (lower body) is doubtful.
Defensive lineman Marcus Forston (lower body) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 30
Central Florida: This is one of the biggest home games in the history of Central Florida. The Golden Knights were idle last week after drubbing Memphis, 32-14, two weeks ago. The Golden Knights have held 12 of their last 13 foes to 26 points or less. They are 4-0 against the spread this season. Central Florida, though, has struggled on offense ranking 80th or worse in many categories. The Golden Knights are averaging 23 points and 319 yards per game. Running back Byrnn Harvey is Central Florida’s top playmaker, averaging 107 yards rushing per contest. The Golden Knights have won 11 of their last 15 home contests. They nearly upset South Florida last year, losing in overtime. Central Florida hosted Texas two years ago and gave the Longhorns a great battle losing 35-32 as a 17-point underdog. The Golden Knights are 6-2 against the spread when facing teams with a winning record.
The Under is 10-1-1 in Central Florida’s last 12 home games.
The Under is 5-2-1 the past eight times the Golden Knights have been an underdog.
Key Injuries - Linebacker Jordan Richards (concussion) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 16 (OVER - Total of the Day)