NCAAF News and Notes Saturday 10/2

CFB: Streaks, Trends, Notes!!
By Sportspic

Stanford at Oregon

No surprise Stanford with Heisman hopeful Andrew Luck (912 yds, 11TD, 2INT) under center are off to a great start. Guiding a balanced offense the pivot has Cardinals 4-0 (3-1 ATS) racking up 48 points/game on 457.5 total yards split between 234.2 in the air, 223.2 on the ground.

In the hunt for a PAC-10 title the Cardinals face a huge obstacle this week when they travel to Oregon to battle 'QUACK-ATTACK'.

Ducks have been absolutely stunning so far in recording it's 4-0 (3-1 ATS) mark leading the nation in scoring (57.8 PPG) on a whopping 560 total yards/game most of it on the ground (321.8) while the defense has held opponents to just 11 PPG on 294.2 total yards.

Ducks in a 'fowl' mood come Saturday with last years 51-42 series setback fresh in their minds payback will be high on the list.

Ducks have won seven of nine encounters (6-3 ATS) and have a 4-0 (3-1 ATS) stretch going in their back yards vs the rival outscoring Stanford by an average 20.0 PPG.

Texas vs Oklahoma

Texas (3-1, 1-3 ATS) abused 34-12 to 15.5 point UCLA underdog this past week try to put their season back on the rails when they take on undefeated Sooners (4-0, 1-3 ATS) in the Red River Rivalry which takes place at the Cotton Bowl.

An inefficient passing attack with QB Garrett Gilbert throwing as many interceptions as touchdowns and it's mediocre rushing game (135.5) does put Texas in a tough spot. However, sporting one of the nations top defensive units yielding just 18.0 PPG on 227.8 total yards the Horns should be able to keep this one within striking distance. Keep in mind, except for a 47-17 rout of FSU the Sooners have flirted with defeat in wins over Utah State (31-24), Air Force (27-24) and most recently Cincinnati (31-29).

Horns won last seasons meeting 16-13 giving the squad a 4-1 (4-0-1 ATS) mark the past five encounters but it is well to note Sooners won and cashed the previous five. Sooners on a 4-9-1 ATS skid dating back to last year, 0-3-1 ATS last 4 neutral site games have been pegged -3.5 to -4 point favorites over Horns entering on a 1-6 ATS downer of their own.

NCAAF Betting: Big Chalk, No Whammies for Week 5
By Bodog Sportsbook

The next round is on the chalkeaters. Week 4 of the college football betting season was absolute gold for the frontrunners, as favorites of 20 points or more went 18-0 SU and 15-3 ATS to improve to 35-21-1 ATS on the year. Included in this group were our two preferred big chalk picks: the Ohio State Buckeyes (-43.5) over the Eastern Michigan Eagles 73-20, and the Kansas Jayhawks (-24) over the New Mexico State Aggies 42-16.

We can thank the continuing growth of online sports gambling for all these opportunities. Lines are being made available on more and more games between FBS and FCS representatives, and while you get the occasional FCS upstart like the James Madison Dukes (CAA) beating the Virginia Tech Hokies in Week 2 – with no betting line attached, sadly – it's more often than not a bloodbath for the little guy.

Those opportunities are about to dwindle in number with conference play taking full effect in Week 5. But there are a handful of –20 or more favorites out there on the college football odds board, and we've narrowed it down to our Top Two.

Texas Christian at Colorado State

The best thing about the Colorado State Rams (1-3 SU and ATS) used to be watching them cover their Rocky Mountain Showdown matchup against the Colorado Buffaloes. But they didn't even come close this year, losing 24-3 as 11.5-point puppies. This is simply not the same team. The Rams have a freshman quarterback in Pete Thomas (four TDs, seven INTs) playing behind an offensive line that's replacing four starters from last year. And all this is happening under the watchful eyes of new offensive co-ordinator Pat Meyer.

There is a ray of hope for Rams fans. In Week 4, Thomas had his coming out party against the Idaho Vandals (-8), throwing three TD passes to win Colorado State's home opener 36-34. But that was Idaho, one of the worst defensive teams in the FBS. The Horned Frogs (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) are much better than that, even if they failed to keep a tight lid on the Oregon State Beavers (zero turnovers created) and the Southern Methodist Mustangs (6.6 yards per carry allowed).

Granted, that's a fairly tepid endorsement of the Frogs for this week, given that they're laying 33 points as we go to press. But they're 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS against the Rams since joining the Mountain West Conference in 2005. TCU won last year's game 44-6 as 23-point home faves on the way to an undefeated regular season. The offense returns nearly intact from last year, as does the defensive line (minus DE Jerry Hughes, now with the Indianapolis Colts). The pass rush was excellent against SMU and should be up in Thomas' grill all day.

Washington State at UCLA

There's no question that the Cougars (1-3 SU and ATS) are one of the very worst teams in the FBS. But are the UCLA Bruins (2-2 SU and ATS) this good? They're coming off a stunning 34-12 victory in Austin over the mighty Texas Longhorns (-15.5), one week after putting the boots to the Houston Cougars (-3.5) 31-13 at home. Quite frankly, the Bruins still have a lot of work to do as Rick Neuheisel enters his third year at the helm. But boy, can they run: 264 yards against Texas and another 266 against Houston.

Which brings us back to Wazzu. Two full seasons have come and gone since Bill Doba was fired and replaced by Paul Wulff, the three-time Big Sky Coach of the Year with the Eastern Washington Eagles. The cupboard was bare when Wulff arrived; his Cougars have won exactly four games since, two of those against FCS opponents – and they needed to come back from 15 points down at the start of the fourth quarter to beat the Montana State Bobcats (Big Sky) 23-22 in Week 2. The Cougs were 7.5-point home favorites in that near-debacle.

As difficult as the past couple of years have been for both rebuilding programs, the Bruins have had an absolute field day in this matchup. They won 28-3 in 2008 as 16-point home faves and 43-7 last year as 17.5-point road faves. This week's spread is 27 points as the series returns to the Rose Bowl in Los Angeles. The Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as double-digit dogs. They might need to be sent to a nice farm upstate after this one.

Beware of Traps - Week 5
By Judd Hall

We were so close to power shifts in college football last weekend that I was ready to dance around the office. Not a pretty sight, I’m sure, but that never came to fruition. Alabama survived in Fayetteville and the Nittany Lions finally got on track against Temple.

Close defeats like that can take a huge toll on teams full of young kids. Indiana was a perfect example of that last season. The Hoosiers were 3-0 and on the verge of a big win in Ann Arbor, but fell 36-33. That loss unraveled the team as they went 1-8 the rest of the way.

So will we see any glorious collapses begin this weekend? Let’s look at some of those teams that are cruising for a fading by the bettors.

Fallen Hooters…

I had a strong feeling that Temple would hold close against the Nittany Lions last week as a 13 ½-point road pup. The public was thinking the same as that line actually opened up at 16 ½ at the start of the week. The Owls looked like they were going to pay off on the money line by taking a 13-9 lead into halftime. Unfortunately for Al Golden’s team, Chester Stewart was picked off three times as Temple fell to the Nittany Lions 22-13. And you can be damn sure that PSU was lucky to win this game.

The Owls stay on the road this week as they head to West Point for a showdown with Army. Temple comes into the game as a five-point road “chalk” for this game. While that line make sense, I can’t help but think this is a great letdown position.

Army has an edge for this game with a running game that is eighth nationally by averaging 274.8 rushing yards per game this season. The Owls had no answer for Evan Royster and PSU’s ground game last week as they racked up 216 rushing yards. I can easily see the Cadets putting a real scare into Temple this weekend.

Wolverines and Revenge…

We already talked about how the Hoosiers lost last year at Michigan. Now Indiana has a chance to get some revenge against the Wolverines this weekend as a 10-point home pup. But Rich Rodriguez’s team might not be paying too much attention to the task at hand. That tends to happen when you have a rivalry showdown with the Spartans coming up the following week.

Now I understand that Denard Robinson is coming back from a knee injury, but should still be a force on the attack for the Wolverines. What is a concern in this game is Michigan’s pass defense. That unit is 105th against the pass, allowing 264.8 yards per game through the air.

Indiana’s Ben Chappell is the sixth most efficient quarterback in the nation (179.04) and is averaging 296.7 passing yards per game. And he threw for 270 yards last season in Ann Arbor in a game the Hoosier should have won. Don’t be shocked if IU keeps it close against the Wolverines in Bloomington.

Storm Warning…

Well, the Hurricanes had no problems in killing off Pittsburgh last week after a less than desirable effort in Columbus a few weeks back. Now Miami is a 3 ½-point road favorite against the Tigers as they start ACC play this weekend.

Miami fans are looking for revenge after Clemson beat them 40-37 in overtime last season at Sun Life Stadium. Of course, the Tigers needed a Herculean effort out of C.J. Spiller to get the win. Spiller won’t be bothering the ‘Canes here as he’s doing his best to make Buffalo worth paying attention to now.

The Tigers are coming into this game after getting a week off from a tough 27-24 OT loss at Auburn on Sept. 18. That time off helps Dabo Swinney rally his troops from what is a tough defeat.

Clemson also has history on its side in this game as they’ve covered the spread in all three meetings they have had against the Hurricanes. Plus, Miami has the hated Seminoles next weekend. And Randy Shannon’s team has gone 4-1 straight up but 1-4 against the spread in their last five games before taking on Florida State.

vegasinsider.com

Florida at Alabama
By Brian Edwards

The last time Florida came to Bryant-Denny Stadium, Urban Meyer was dealt his first loss as head coach of the Gators. It wasn’t pretty, either, and I know because I was there.

Alabama, coached by Mike Shula at the time, took control early and often and cruised to a 31-3 win that wasn’t even that close. That was Oct, 1 of 2005. Since then, the Gators and Crimson Tide have combined to win three national championships and have both established utter dominance within their respective divisions in the SEC.

That’s right, it’s like the 1990s all over again. From 1992-1996, ‘Bama and Florida collided in four of the first five SEC Championship Games. They’ve now met at the Georgia Dome the last two years and Saturday’s showdown in Tuscaloosa is expected to serve as a precursor to a third straight such encounter in Atlanta.

On Sunday night, most betting shops opened top-ranked Alabama (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) as a nine-point favorite. When I spoke to BoDog.com Sportsbook Manager Richard Gardner on Wednesday, he told VI, “We had a lot of sharp money come in on the Gators early, so we didn’t hesitate to move the number to eight.”

As of early Friday morning, most books had the Tide favored by eight with a total of 48. We should note, however, that quite a few spots were down to 7 ½. Bettors can back Florida (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) to win outright for a plus-280 return (risk $100 to win $280).

When the Golden Nugget released Games of the Year lines over the summer, Alabama was listed as just a three-point favorite against Florida. Therefore, the perception is that the Tide has proven itself to be the superior team through four games.

Nick Saban’s squad comfortably covered the spread its first three times out, beating San Jose St. (48-7), Penn St. (24-3) and Duke (62-13). Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram (knee injury) and star defensive tackle Marcell Dareus (suspension) sat out the first two contests before returning in the blowout win at Duke.

The Tide got all it could handle in its SEC opener last Saturday in Fayetteville. Arkansas needed just two plays to get into the end zone and on the scoreboard, sending an electric crowd into chaos right away. By the time we got to intermission, Ryan Mallett had led the Razorbacks to a commanding 17-7 advantage.

Most books made ‘Bama a 4 1/2-point ‘chalk’ for second-half wagers, equating to the Tide becoming the 5 ½-point ‘dog for the game.

But Bobby Petrino’s team added on to its lead in the third quarter when Zach Hocker buried a 48-yard field goal for a 20-7 lead. The Tide would answer later in the quarter, as Trent Richardson took a screen pass from Greg McElroy and raced 20 yards for a touchdown to trim the deficit to 20-14.

In the fourth and deciding stanza, Mallett went into the tank. After playing splendidly for three quarters, the Michigan transfer threw a pair of costly interceptions. The first pick by Robert Lester was returned to the Hogs’ 12 yard line to set up the go-ahead score.

From out of the Wildcat formation, Ingram ran twice for 11 yards. On the third play, Ingram took the honors once again, bullying his way into the end zone from one yard out to give ‘Bama a 24-20 lead. Moments later, another Mallett interception all but sealed the Hogs’ fate.

Granted, it took a daring fourth-down conversion by Saban from within ‘Bama’s own territory in the final minute, but it worked. And Alabama escaped unscathed. Its backers didn't get off so easy, though, as the Tide failed to cover as a seven-point road favorite. But they did cash tickets for those that supported them for second-half wagers (as 4 1/2-point faves as mentioned previously).

Florida looked horrible in its first six quarters of play. In its opener, UF committed a comedy of errors, including eight fumbles that came mostly from the center-to-quarterback exchange from out of the shotgun formation. The Gators failed to cover in their opener, pulling away from Miami-Ohio for a 34-12 win as 38-point home favorites.

South Florida came to The Swamp for the first time in Week 2 and made itself at home in the early going. The Bulls drew first blood and led 7-0 deep into the second quarter. Finally, UF tied it up at 7-7 before halftime.

In the second half, Jeff Demps exploded for a 62-yard touchdown run that got the Gators going. When Justin Trattou intercepted a B.J. Daniels pass and sprinted 35 yards for a touchdown, UF had a 28-7 advantage late in the third quarter. The Gators would go on to a 38-14 victory as 14 ½-point home favorites, while the 52 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 50 ½-point total.

In Week 3, Florida won its SEC opener 31-17 at Tennessee as a 13-point road favorite. Trey Burton’s two-yard TD run midway through the fourth quarter put the game on ice and sent the total ‘over’ the 44-point mark.

Without question, UF put together its best four quarters of football in last weeks’ 48-14 win over Kentucky as a 14-point home ‘chalk’ Burton stole the show with a record-breaking performance, rushing for five touchdowns and catching another from QB John Brantley. The 62 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 49 ½-point tally.

Brantley completed 24-of-35 passes for a season-high 248 yards and one TD, but he did throw his first interception of the season. Burton, a true freshman who is lining up at tight end, fullback, wide receiver and QB, also had a pass completion that went for 42 yards.

This is the first regular-season meeting between these schools since Florida won a 28-13 decision as a 15-point home favorite in 2006. The Tide was ahead of the number and very much in the game for straight-up purposes nearly the entire way, but a long pick-six by Reggie Nelson late in the fourth quarter put the game away.

The rivalry got a year off before both teams went to the Georgia Dome in 2008. With a shot at the national title on the line, Tim Tebow threw a pair of TD passes in the final stanza to propel the Gators to a 31-20 win as 10-point favorites.

With revenge thick in the air for last year’s rematch with a trip to the BCS Championship Game at stake once again, ‘Bama dealt out woodshed treatment from the get-go. Saban gave Meyer a lesson in Coaching 1101, out-scheming his counterpart in all three phases.

When the beating was finished, the Tide was destined for Pasadena with a 32-13 win as a live five-point underdog. They hooked up money-line backers with a plus-180 payout (paid $180 on $100 wagers). Ingram ran for 113 yards and three touchdowns, in addition to making two receptions for 76 yards, including a big gainer on a screen pass that proved to be the momentum shifter UF couldn't shake off.

Less than a year later, the revenge factor belongs to UF, something veteran VI handicapper Bryan Leonard thinks is important.

Leonard told VI, “This is a big revenge game for the Gators and they’ve been outstanding as underdogs going back more than a half-dozen years. Even at Utah, Urban Meyer was terrific as an underdog. I like UF plus the points.”

Florida has only been an underdog three times during Urban Meyer’s six-year tenure. UF backers have cashed tickets in each instance. In 2005 and 2007, the Gators lost at LSU (21-17 and 28-24, respectively) but covered the spread both times. And, of course, Meyer’s team dealt out a shellacking as a 7 ½-point ‘dog in a 41-14 win over Ohio St. in the 2006 BCS Championship Game.

As road underdogs dating back to 2003, the Gators are 7-0 ATS. They haven’t been this rich an underdog since going to Baton Rouge as a 10 ½-point puppy in 2003. Although Saban’s LSU team would go on to win the national title, it got double-digitized on that day in what’s known as “The Keiwan Ratliff Game” in UF lore. That’s because Ratliff had three interceptions to lead UF to a 19-7 win over LSU.

Alabama is 9-10 ATS as a home favorite on Saban’s watch.

The ‘over’ is 3-1 overall for UF, 1-0 in its lone road game. Meanwhile, the ‘under’ is 2-1-1 overall for Alabama, 1-0-1 in its home assignments.

CBS will provide the prime-time telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Alabama owns a 6-1-1 spread record in its last eight head-to-head meetings against Florida.

McElroy is now 34-0 as a starting quarterback in high school and college. He has a 26/8 career touchdown-interception ratio at Alabama.

UF’s Brantley has six TD passes compared to just one interception this year. In his UF career, Brantley has a 16/2 TD-INT ratio.

Although the aforementioned 31-3 ‘Bama win over UF in Tuscaloosa in 2005 was probably the highlight of Mike Shula’s tenure, it may have also been the turning point for the worse. A year before, Shula had kept QB Brodie Croyle in a game that was out of hand and he ended up tearing his ACL, sending the ’04 campaign down the drain. With ‘Bama up by 28 early in the fourth quarter in ’05, Tyrone Prothro sustained perhaps the most grotesque leg break since Lawrence Taylor shredded Joe Theismann’s leg. The injury was a career-ender for Prothro, one of the most popular players in Alabama football history. He never played again and still walks with a limp five years later.

After spraining his ankle at Arkansas last week, Dareus missed some practice earlier this week. However, he’s been upgraded to ‘probable.’ Likewise, UF’s Demps has been upgraded to ‘probable’ after wearing a walking boot for his bruised foot up until Wednesday. Florida WR Chris Rainey is ‘out’ as he remains suspended, while OL James Wilson is “questionable.”

Robbie Andreu, UF’s beat writer for the Gainesville Sun since 1993, predicts a 24-21 win for the Gators.

Paul Finebaum of the Mobile Press-Register says the Florida-Alabama football rivalry has become the nation’s most important.

If you haven't had a chance to read the YahooSports.com report about UNC football this week, here it is. Also, YahooSports.com's Dan Wetzel has this follow-up story on the importance of this UNC situation.

vegasinsider.com

College football Top 25 Cheat Sheet: Week 5
By Patrick Garbin

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Auburn Tigers (-35, 53)

Why Louisiana-Monroe will cover: Since Auburn’s defense is very average, allowing 15 of its last 16 opponents to score 20-plus points, the Warhawks could very well keep this game within 35 points.

Why Auburn will cover: The Tigers have covered three of four games against the Warhawks since 2002 by an average of two touchdowns.

Total: The Over is 9-2 in Auburn’s last 11 games as a home favorite and 7-1 in Louisiana-Monroe’s last eight games as a road underdog.

Miami Hurricanes at Clemson Tigers (+3.5, 51)

Why Miami will cover: Under coach Randy Shannon, the Hurricanes have played well during the middle part of their schedule, going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in October.

Why Clemson will cover: The Tigers, who are coming off a bye, have won all of their games the last three years following an open date.

Total: Besides the fact Miami is one of the better defenses in the nation, both of these teams rank in the FBS’ Top 10 in sacks. Points could be at a premium.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini (+17, 51)

Why Ohio State will cover: The Buckeyes have simply been fantastic against the number, covering 17 of their last 21 games.

Why Illinois will cover: How many times have we’ve seen Ohio State rolling along only to then struggle against a substantial underdog. The Fighting Illini are in a perfect spot as big dog at home.

Total: After years of poor play, Illinois’ defense is actually respectable, having allowed only five offensive touchdowns in three games.

TCU Horned Frogs at Colorado State Rams (+33, 54)

Why TCU will cover: The Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with losing records, plus, they’ll be seeking style points from voters as the fifth-ranked team in the nation.

Why Colorado State will cover: It’d be rather difficult to defeat a recharged Rams team, coming off an upset over Idaho, at home by nearly five touchdowns.

Total: Since TCU is beginning to show signs of weakness against the run, Colorado State might try to slow the game’s tempo by establishing a running game.

Tennessee Volunteers at LSU Tigers (-15, 42.5)

Why Tennessee will cover: One of the biggest myths in college football might be how challenging it is to face LSU in Tiger Stadium, where the Tigers have failed to cover in 12 of their last 17 games.

Why LSU will cover: Tennessee has struggled mightily against ranked teams, going 1-9 SU since the start of the 2008 season.

Total: In most every situational matchup, the Under prevails in LSU’s games, including 9-1 in the Tigers’ last 10 home games.

Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers (+10, 65.5)

Why Michigan will cover: The Wolverines and the road team are both 4-1 ATS in the last five games of this series.

Why Indiana will cover: Allowing 28 points and 401 yards its last 15 games, Michigan’s defense is rather awful and must face an excellent passing game on the road.

Total: As mentioned, Michigan’s defense is susceptible while Indiana’s isn’t much better, while these two offenses are capable of nearly scoring at will, no matter how high the total.

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners (-3.5, 45.5)

Why Texas will cover: This season, Oklahoma’s defense has collapsed in the final quarter in three of four games. If the Longhorns can keep it close through three quarters, they could certainly pull the upset.

Why Oklahoma will cover: Against UCLA, Texas continued to prove to be overrated while the Sooners are seeking revenge, having lost four of the series’ last five meetings.

Total: Reportedly, Texas is expected to spread out its offense, throw often and nearly abandoned its running game because of its recent struggles. This could be an unexpected shootout.

Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan State Spartans (+2, 53)

Why Wisconsin will cover: The Badgers play well in the role of a slight favorite, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 points.

Why Michigan State will cover: Mark Dantonio’s return to coaching after suffering a heart attack should inspire his underdog Spartans and a raucous home crowd.

Total: These two offenses average 24th or better in the FBS in both total and scoring offense and the last seven games in this series have averaged a total of more than 66 combined points.

Florida Gators at Alabama Crimson Tide (-7.5, 48)

Why Florida will cover: The Gators have found their Tim Tebow II in Trey Burton and they will continue to roll with the freshman as a newfound offensive weapon.

Why Alabama will cover: During the Crimson Tide’s great run with Coach Nick Saban, they have especially been tough of late, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Total: Led by John Brantley and Burton, the Gators’ offense is finally starting to click while Alabama has established it can give up points against a proficient offense.

Stanford Cardinal at Oregon Ducks (-7, 65)

Why Stanford will cover: Excluding any ending before the half or game, the Cardinal have remarkably scored on 73 percent of their offensive drives this season.

Why Oregon will cover: The Ducks’ Autzen Stadium may have the biggest home-field advantage in college football. Oregon is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.

Total: Both defenses have proved to be vulnerable recently, allowing average offenses (Stanford-Wake Forest, Oregon-Arizona St.) to put up significant points.

Boise State Broncos at New Mexico State Aggies (+42.5, 60.5)

Why Boise State will cover: With the threat of Oregon leapfrogging the Broncos in the polls with a win over Stanford, Boise State could run up the score if given the chance.

Why New Mexico State will cover: You’ve got to like any team getting more than 40 points at home.

Total: The Under is both 4-1 in the last five games of this series and in the Aggies’ last five conference games.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Iowa Hawkeyes (-7, 41)

Why Penn State will cover: Although the Nittany Lions’ offense has struggled, their defense is strong and should keep them in most games, especially when getting seven points.

Why Iowa will cover: Quarterback Ricky Stanzi is a winner (21-5 SU, 16-10 ATS as a starter) and makes few mistakes. It’s difficult seeing him suffering two letdowns in three games.

Total: Perhaps Penn State’s only shot to defeat Iowa, similarly to how Arizona defeated the Hawkeyes, is for quarterback Rob Bolden is to often throw downfield.

Nevada Wolf Pack at UNLV Rebels (+20.5, 62.5)

Why Nevada will cover: The Rebels allowed Wisconsin 278 rushing yards while the Wolf Pack is 10-2 ATS when rushing for 225-plus yards since the start of the 2009 season.

Why UNLV will cover: The Rebels relish in the underdog role at home, going 18-11 ATS since 2000 as a home dog.

Total: UNLV’s offense is dismal, ranking 95th or lower in all four of the FBS’ major offensive categories. Nevada will definitely score its fair share of points, however, the Rebels might be another story.

Texas vs. Oklahoma: What Bettors Need to Know

It’s still Oklahoma-Texas, one of the fiercest rivalries in college football.

Some of the intrigue leading up to the annual showdown between the Sooners and Longhorns in Dallas was lost last week, when UCLA exposed Texas with a head-scratching 34-12 rout in Austin. But there’s still plenty on the line in the 105th edition of the Red River Rivalry.

The winner will gain the upper hand in the Big 12 South and remain a factor in the BCS race. The loser will be left to fight an uphill battle to get back into any kind of title hunt.

Line moves/trends

Oddsmakers opened the Sooners as 4-point favorites for this weekend’s Red River Shootout. That has dropped as low as -3 at some markets. The total was set at 46.5 but has come down two points to 44.5 as of Friday afternoon.

Texas and Oklahoma have matching 1-3 ATS records on the season. However, the Longhorns have the edge at the window in this Big 12 battle. Texas is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five games with OU, pushing with the 3-point spread in last year’s 16-13 victory. The over/under record is 2-3 in that five-year span.

Hook, line and sinker

The Longhorns (3-1) dropped all the way to 16th in the USA Today Coaches Poll after the stunning loss to UCLA. They will arrive at the Cotton Bowl Saturday with some serious concerns on offense.

Coach Mack Brown’s emphasis on the running game hasn’t produced quality results. Texas managed just 85 yards on the ground against UCLA and turned it over five times. First-year starting quarterback Garrett Gilbert has been inconsistent and has thrown as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns.

Sooner than later?

Oklahoma (4-0) withstood a fourth-quarter scare from Cincinnati to stay unbeaten last weekend. But, except for a Week 2 blowout of Florida State, nothing has been easy for Bob Stoops’ Sooners.

Oklahoma has jumped out to big leads in each of its first four games, but has failed to put away inferior opponents like Utah State, Air Force and Cincinnati. They’ve avoided being upset with an opportunistic defense that has forced 12 turnovers.

Offensively, Oklahoma is loaded with playmakers like running back DeMarco Murray and wide receiver Ryan Broyles. Murray and Broyles have accounted for 11 touchdowns. Quarterback Landry Jones is completing 64 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and three interceptions.

Yet, despite all those weapons, the Sooners have struggled to put together game-clinching drives. Oklahoma has been outscored 41-10 in the fourth quarter this season. And that’s against defenses with far less talent than what Texas possesses.

Red Dead Redemption

The Longhorns boast the nation’s second-ranked defense. They’re allowing only 227.75 yards and 18 points per game. Seven starters are back from last year’s defense, which held the Sooners to minus-16 yards rushing in a 16-13 win.

Oklahoma led all the way into the fourth quarter of last year’s Red River Shootout before Texas kicked what turned out to be a game-winning field goal with 12 minutes to play. Jones threw two interceptions on the Sooners’ final three drives, sending Oklahoma to its fourth loss in the last five meetings with the Longhorns.

Injury report

Oklahoma expects starting cornerback Jamell Fleming (ankle) to play. Reserve wide receiver Jaz Reynolds has been suspended indefinitely after posting an insensitive comment on Twitter regarding the recent shooting in Austin.

Injuries to Texas’ running backs have been a big factor to its rushing woes. Tre Newton and Cody Johnson, two of the four Longhorn running backs, are battling injuries. Both are expected to play but may not be at full strength.

Weather

There will be clear skies in Texas Saturday afternoon. The forecast is calling for temperatures in the mid-80s in Dallas with a slight 12-mph breeze. There is a zero percent chance of precipitation.

Stanford at Oregon: What Bettors Need to Know

It may be early, but Pac-10 supremacy is at stake when Stanford visits Oregon Saturday night.

The No. 13 Cardinal are off to a surprising 4-0 start with victories over UCLA and Notre Dame. No. 4 Oregon yielded 597 yards to Arizona State last week, but took advantage of seven Sun Devil turnovers on the way to a 42-31 road win.

Saturday’s game could go a long way in determining the eventual conference champ and has certainly caught the nation’s eye. The start of the game was moved up to 8:15 p.m. to accommodate a primetime national TV audience. It will also be host site of ESPN’s "College GameDay."

Line moves/trends

Books opened with the Ducks as touchdown favorites at home. That number has dropped slightly to 6.5 as of Friday afternoon. As for the total, oddsmakers set a big number with two of the top offensive programs in the country going toe-to-toe. The total opened at 65 and had risen to 66.

Stanford is 2-6 in its last eight games against Oregon but has covered the past two meetings between these conference rivals. These teams have played over the number in their last five head-to-head contests.

Duck and cover

The last time the Ducks hosted the ESPN "GameDay" crew they upset USC last year on Halloween.

The Ducks have dominated the series with the Cardinal recently. Oregon has won seven of the past eight contests and the last four by an average of over 26 points. The Ducks have won 12 straight home games, nine straight in the conference.

Points should be aplenty. Oregon leads the nation in scoring at 57.8 ppg while Stanford is fourth, scoring over 47 points. And the Ducks strike in a hurry. Oregon has scored 11 touchdowns on drives of under a minute.

Oregon is led by sophomore running back LaMichael James who eclipsed the 2,000-yard mark for his career last week. James paces an offense that rushed for 528 yards against Portland State earlier in the year.

Senior linebacker Casey Matthews has a pair of interceptions and three fumble recoveries on the season and leads the Pac-10 in both categories.

Duck quarterback Darron Thomas made his Pac-10 debut against ASU and tossed a pair of touchdowns and ran for another score.

Lucky charm

Stanford is paced by quarterback Andrew Luck who has passed for 912 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season. The Cardinal routed UCLA 35-0 in its Pac-10 opener. Stanford also rolled over Wake Forest and Notre Dame this season.

Stephan Taylor ran for 114 yards in Stanford’s 37-14 win at Notre Dame last week. He leads the team with 265 yards on the ground this season.

A win on Saturday would give Stanford its first 5-0 start since 1951, when the team won its first nine games out of the gate en route to the Rose Bowl.

Injury report

Stanford’s Ryan Whalen will miss his second straight game with an arm injury. Whalen is one of Luck’s favorite targets. Running back Jeremy Stewart is questionable with an ankle injury. He was injured in the Cardinal’s opener.

Oregon tight end Brandon Williams was questionable with a hand injury but practiced at full speed earlier this week. He is expected to play Saturday night.

Weather

The forecast at Autzen is calling for partially cloudy skies with game-time temperatures in the mid-70s. There is a 10 percent chance of rain and a 10-mph wind blowing across the field.

Where The Action Is: NCAAF Week 5 Line Moves

College football bettors get an early Christmas gift in Week 5. The schedule is loaded with top-tier matchups including five games between Top-25 programs.

We talk to Chuck Esposito, the casino operations manager at the Las Vegas Tropicana, about this week’s action and the biggest line moves on the board. Already Esposito has taken a ton of money on Week 5 and gives the NCAA schedule makers the credit.

“Any time you have a big week like this, it drives the handle up,” he says. “People are going to bet their game but also want to watch and bet those big games as well. It absolutely drives the handle sky-high for us.”

And with more money, comes more line movement. Here’s a look at the Week 5 line movers and shakers:

Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini – Open: +18.5 Move: +16.5

The Buckeyes have been a bettor's best friend through the first four weeks of the season. Ohio State is a perfect 4-0 against the spread, despite facing some monster chalk – like last week’s 44.5-point spread versus Eastern Michigan. It seems the public is bailing on the Buckeyes with the start of Big Ten play, moving the Illini to 16.5-point home pups.

“This is a little surprising, considering how Illinois has played in the Big Ten,” says Esposito. “But this is a bowl game for (Ron) Zook and the Illini. Opening the Big Ten schedule with Ohio State at home is huge and they must show well in this game.”

Tennessee Volunteers at LSU Tigers – Open: -14.5 Move: -16.5

Louisiana State continues to get by on defense, taking a 4-0 record into the SEC opener. The public is buying into the Tigers’ strong home-field advantage and have moved LSU to 16.5-point chalk as of Friday afternoon.

“LSU hasn’t played that well early on, but I think they still have too much firepower,” says Esposito. “(Returner) Patrick Peterson is such a weapon to have on special teams.”

Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers – Open: +14 Move +10

This number has moved from one key spread to another. Michigan opens Big Ten play against a weaker opponent and could be looking ahead to a schedule that includes Michigan State, Iowa and Penn State this month. Wolverines quarterback Denard Robinson is expected to play while running back Michael Shaw is listed as doubtful.

“The total is high in this one,” Esposito says of the 65-point number. “You have to wonder how Indiana can hang with them.”

Boise State Broncos at New Mexico State Aggies – Open: +40 Move: +43.5

The Broncos will continue to get massive spreads as they stomp their way through the WAC schedule. Bettors are expecting an impressive conference opener against an Aggies squad that has allowed 125 points through the first three games of the year.

“The public will continue to back the Broncos this season,” says Esposito. “They really have to roll over opponents and hope for upsets in the Top 8 for a legit shot at making the BCS title game. “

Virginia Tech Hokies at North Carolina State Wolfpack – Open: +5 Move: +3.5

With star running back Ryan Williams dinged up, the public is fading the Hokies in this ACC showdown. North Carolina State has also had a hand in that line movement, impressing bettors with victories over Central Florida, Cincinnati and Georgia Tech.

“I think NC State was one of those teams we undervalued in the preseason,” says Esposito. “This line has ping-ponged a bit for us, moving up as high as 6.5 then coming back down.”

Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers - Open: -5 Move: -3.5

The Beavers could be without star receiver James Rodgers in this Pac-10 contests. He’s dealing with a concussion but early word is that he will be ready for the Sun Devils. Oregon State has lost to TCU and BSU – two of the top teams in the nation – and may have a hard time getting up for Arizona State.

“We’ve taken early on this game, moving the line quickly. But we’re seeing good two-way money now,” says Esposito.

Saturday's Analysis

Highlighted Games

Texas won four last five games vs Oklahoma, but got smoked by UCLA at home last week, giving up 264 rushing yards to team that threw only six passes all game. This is first time since '05 Longhorns are underdog in regular season- they're 4-0 as regular season dog since '00. Oklahoma is just 5-8 against spread in last 13 games as a favorite. 10 of last 12 games in series were decided by double digit margins.

Home team won last five Wisconsin-Michigan State games; average total in last three series games, 62.7. Spartans are 1-5-1 as home dog since '05. Badgers are 6-5-1 as road favorite under Bielema. Wisconsin is 9-4 in last thirteen series games; they outrushed Spartans 193-90 in LY's 38-30 win. MSU coach Dantonio will coach from press box, two weeks after having mild heart attack.

Road team won last two Northwestern-Minnesota games; Wildcats are 1-4 as road favorite since '07. Minnesota is 5-9 as home underdog since '02 (4-4 under Brewster). In last three weeks, Gophers lost at home to Sourh Dakota/USC/Northern Illinois-- Huskies ran ball for 297 yards in last week's 34-23 win. Wildcats survived 11 penalties in beating Central Michigan of MAC 30-25 (-7) last week.

NC State is last unbeaten team in ACC; they lost last two games against Virginia Tech, 20-16 (+3) at home in '05, 38-18 (+21) at Tech LY. State is 13-6 vs spread in last 19 games as underdog, 7-4 as a home dog under O'Brien. Hokies are 14-5-1 as road favorite since '04; they averaged 22 yards a completion in LY's win over State. Tech shut out Boston College on road LY, but State's Wilson is way better than any of BC's QBs.

Wake Forest lost 68-24/31-0 last two weeks, but they've covered nine of last 11 as home underdog (5-0 in that role since '06). Third road game in four weeks for Georgia Tech team that is 5-1 as road fave under Johnson, but they did lose as 13-point faves at Kansas earlier this season. Jackets (-14) nipped Wake 30-27 at home LY, running ball for 412 yards (6.6 yards per carry). Huge edge in QB esperience for Georgia Tech.

Notre Dame lost last three games, is favored over Boston College team that is changing QBs after getting shut out at home by Virginia Tech last week. BC won six of last seven series games, losing 20-16 in South Bend LY when they were -5 in turnovers. Irish are 6-6 in last dozen games as a road favorite. Irish allowed 99 points in losing last three weeks. Eagles are 7-4 as home underdog since '00.

Home team won eight of last ten Arizona St-Oregon St games; ASU lost last two visits here, 44-10/27-25, but covered last two games (lost by 1-11 points) after opening by beating pair of I-AA foes. ASU is 9-21-1 as road underdog since 2001, but they did cover at Wisconsin couple weeks ago. Beavers are 10-7 as home fave since '06, but covered just one of last five in that role. ASU coach Erickson coached OSU from 1999-2002.

Florida State (3-1) hasn't played a close game yet, with 34-10 win over BYU their closest game this year; Seminoles lost four of last six games on road, are 6-11 as road favorite since '04. Favorites covered all three of their lined games this year. Virginia was 1-3 as home dog LY, after being 16-5 in previous 21 tries; Cavaliers beat two I-AA teams around a 17-14 loss at USC (outgained Trojans 340-329, outrushed them 150-127).

Florida/Alabama met for SEC title last two years (1-1), split their last four meetings overall, with all four games decided by 11+ points; Gators are 7-0 as road underdog since '03. Tide is 9-6 as home favorite since '08; they gutted out 24-20 win at Arkansas last week (were down 17-7 at the half), outrushing Hogs 228-60, but giving up 354 passing yards. Florida is rebuilding, but is still 4-0 this season, averaging 37.8 ppg.

Iowa is 5-3 in last eight games vs Penn State, upsetting Lions 21-10 (+9) in Happy Valley LY; Hawkeyes are 31-17 as home favorite since 2001, just 7-6 in last 13 tries. Penn State is 2-7 as an underdog since '06, 2-1 in bowls, 0-6 in regular season; they're 0-4 as road dog since '06. Lions lost 24-3 in freshman QB Bolden's first road start (outgained 409-283); PSU was 14-31/156 passing (three INTs) in loss to the Tide.

Washington (+19) upset USC 16-13 in SeattleLY; Huskies had week off to get ready for this, but are just 3-11 vs spread in last 14 games as road underdog. U-Dub lost last two visits here, 26-20/56-0. USC is 2-5 in last seven tries as home favorite; they've got showdown with Stanford next, but revenge motive should keep them focused. One of last chances for senior QB Locker to show that he's an elite college quarterback.

Road team won last two Miami-Clemson games, with both games going OT, and average total, 71.5. Third road game in four weeks for Miami, an easy winner at Pitt- they're 6-10 as road favorite since '05, 5-4 since '08. Clemson is 17-7 as underdog since '03, 7-2 at home; they had last week off after tough 27-24 loss in OT at Auburn (led 17-3 at half); they're 10 for 35 on 3rd down, part of why they struggled in 2nd half at Auburn.

Stanford's 51-42 home win (+7) over Oregon LY was Cardinal's first in last eight series games; Stanford lost last two visits here, 48-10/35-28). Cardinal beat Notre Dame last week, has USC up next, but this is bigger than either of those. Oregon is 36-24 vs spread in Pac-10 play since '03, 19-8 in last 27 games as home favorite. Stanford is just 5-8 as road dog under Harbaugh. Both quarterbacks in this game are sophomores.

Rest of the Card

-- Vanderbilt is 21-5-2 as road underdog since 2003, but 10-14-2 in its non-SEC games since '02. UConn is 16-11-2 as home fave since '02; they play Rutgers on ESPN next Friday.
-- Eastern Michigan was outscored 125-34 in last two games; Eagles are 5-10 as home underdog since '06. Ohio is 0-3 vs D-I teams; they're 6-5 as a road favorite under Solich.
-- Central Michigan is 8-1 vs spread in last nine lined games; they're 11-2 in last 13 games as home favorite. Road team won their last three games against Ball State, which lost last three games (lost to I-AA Liberty).
-- Michigan won last 16 games vs Indiana, winning last seven visits here, but Wolverines are just 1-4-1 in last six games as road favorite. Since '00, Indiana is 13-23 as home underdog, 5-6 since 2007.
-- Skip Holtz is 14-6 in last 20 games as a road underdog. North Carolina has NCAA breathing down its neck, should never be used to lay double digits- they're 10-20 as home favorite since 2000.

-- Maryland lost 17-13 at Duke, their first loss in last six series games; teams combined for 9- rushing yards LY. Duke is 28-15 as road dog since '05. Terps are just 4-13 as home favorite since '04.
-- Rutgers is 6-8 as home favorite since '07; they play on ESPN against Conn next Friday. Tulane lost 42-23 last week to Houston's 3rd-string QB. Green Wave is 16-23 as road underdog since 2003.
-- Trap game for 3-1 Temple coming off loss at Penn State (outgained by 439-202, but led 13-9 at half). Owls are 3-2 as road favorite since 2003. Army scored 29.5 ppg in winning three of its first four games.
-- Favorite covered last six Texas Tech-Iowa State game; Tech won last two meetings, 42-26/42-17- they're 6-2 in last eight games as road fave. Cyclones are 11-18 as home dog since '00 (1-4 vs spread in last five).
-- Home side won five of last six Kentucky-Ole Miss games; Wildcats are 6-3 vs spread as road dog since '08. Ole Miss is 8-4 as home favorite under Nutt, but just 3-6 vs spread in last nine SEC games.

-- Tulsa scored 35 ppg in winning last three games vs Memphis, but two of the three games went OT; Hurricane is 6-8-1 as road favorite since Graham became coach. Tigers are 7-8 as home dog since '06.
-- Baylor is 5-2 in last seven games as home favorite; they lost 58-10 at Kansas in last meeting (2007); think seniors remember? Kansas is 12-17 as road dog since '01. Baylor played Buffalo, Gill's old team 3 weeks ago.
-- Kent State beat Miami OH last two years, 54-21 (+4.5)/29-19 (-7). Flashes had week off after losses to BC/Penn State. Miami is 9-7 as dog at home since '00. Kent State is 2-5 as road favorite since '05.
-- Idaho now 2-8 as road favorite since '00 after Colorado State's 36-34 upset win last week; Vandals lost 51-28 (+8) at home two years ago to Western Michigan, which is 0-2-1 as home dog since 2007.
-- TCU is 4-0, averaging 44.5 ppg; they've won last five games by 32-9 average, but won just 13-7 in last visit here (-15). Rams were outscored 106-19 in losing first three games, before upsetting Idaho last week.

-- Navy won last seven games vs Air Force, with four of last five losses by 7 or less points; Falcons are 9-3 vs spread as home fave with Calhoun as coach. Middies are 19-7 as a road underdog since 2002.
-- Bowling Green won four of last five games vs Buffalo, with three of last four games decided by 1 point or in OT. Bulls are 0-3 this season vs I-AA teams, outscored 103-37. Bulls are 16-8 as road dog since '06.
-- Tennessee is 5-2 as road underdog since '08; teams haven't met since LSU's 21-14 win (-7) in '07 SEC title game. LSU is 12-20-1 as home fave under Miles- they have bigger game against Florida next week.
-- Washington State lost its three games vs I-A foes by average score of 50-18; Coogs are 10-17 as road dog since 2004. UCLA covered 17 of its last 24 as home favorite; they had huge upset win at Texas last week.
-- Ohio State won its last seven visits to Illinois by average of 18 points; Buckeyes are 15-5 as road favorite since '06- this is their first road game this year. Illinois is 9-12 as home underdog since 2003.

-- Georgia just lost three SEC games in row, is on road for third time in last four weeks; Colorado didn't play last week. Dawgs are 4-6-1 as road favorite since 2006. Buffaloes are 5-2 in last seven tries as home dog.
-- Akron allowed 36.7 ppg in losing its three games vs I-A teams so far this year, losing by 26-37-15 points- they also lost to Gardner-Webb, a I-AA team. Huskies are 15-12 as road favorite since '00.
-- New Mexico was outscored 225-41 (average 54-10) in losing first four games this year; Lobos are 4-8 as home dog since 2006. UTEP is 3-9 as road favorite since 2005- they won last two games, allowing 23 points.
-- Wyoming had Air Force on ropes last week, lost 20-14 when Falcons scored twice in 4th quarter; Cowboys are 0-3 vs I-A teams, scoring total of 27 points- they're 5-2 as road dog under Christensen.
-- Rice won three of last four games vs SMU, with average totals in the four games, 71.3, but Owls are 1-3 this year, with all three losses by 17 points- they allowed 30+ points in all three games.

-- Southern Mississippi allowed 28 points in winning its last two games; they're 7-4 as home favorite under Fedora. Marshall is 9-17 as road dog since 2005; they allowed 45-44 points in losing their two road games.
-- Keep in mind Boise State can't take it easy on New Mexico State or pollsters will hold it against them. Broncos scored 40.3 ppg in winning first three games, by 3-45-11 points. Aggies are 0-3, losing by 20-31-26 points, giving up 41-42-42 points.
-- Nevada ran ball for 559 yards in LY's 63-28 win over UNLV, 5th win in row for Wolf Pack over their in-state rivals; they won last two visits here, 31-3/49-27. Favorite is 3-0-1 vs spread in UNLV games this year.
-- Home side won five of last six La Tech-Hawai'i games; Bulldogs lost last two visits here, 61-17/24-14. Bulldogs are 8-27 vs spread in last 35 games as road dog- they lost 48-16 at Texas A&M in first '10 road tilt.

-- FIU led in 4th quarter at Texas A&M, was tied 14-14 in second half at Maryland last week (lost 28-14); Panthers are 8-12 as road dog under Cristobal. Panthers are 0-2 vs I-A opponents, losing to Miami, at Utah.
-- Arkansas State scored 28 ppg but still lost three of first four games, losing road games by 26-7-7 points (2-1 as road dog). ASU is 1-3 as dog on road since 2005. Louisville is 6-9 as road favorite since 2005.
-- UL-Lafayette won four of last five games vs North Texas, winning last two visits here, 31-28/59-30. Ragin'Cajuns allowed 37.7 ppg in 1-2 start this year. UNT is 1-7 vs spread as home favorite since 2003.
-- Auburn won tough game over South Carolina LY, has Kentucky next, could let up vs UL-Monroe club they waxed 34-0 (-26) two years ago. ULM (+34) lost 31-7 at Arkansas in similar scenario in season opener.
-- South Florida (-17) won 35-23 at Florida Atlantic back in '07; USF is 3-4 as home favorite since '08, 4-7 vs spread in last 11 non-league tilts. Owls are 11-19-1 as road underdog since 2005.

Saturday College Fade Alert
By Bruce Marshall

Several new "trouble spots" have popped up on the co llege football landscape the past week, and the following sides could be candidates to "fade" in Saturday action. Teams appear in schedule order...

Texas...The Longhorns have yet to impress and still haven't figured out how to run the ball effectively. And now there are questions about Q B Garrett Gilbert really being able to fill Colt McCoy's shoes after an uninspiring performance in last week's humiliating loss vs. UCLA. The fact the Horns' proud rush "D" was gouged for 264 YR by the Bruins has opened the eyes of Oklahoma HC Bob Stoops, who is hellbent to reclaim the edge in a series that he once dominated over Mack Brown. This week vs. Oklahoma at Dallas

Minnesota...The Gophers haven't won since opening night at Middle Tennessee when QB Dwight Dasher was sidelined for the hosts due to suspension. Since then Minnesota has played three homes games and lost them all, including setbacks vs. South Dakota and Northern Illinois. (That's not supposed to happen to a Big Ten team, is it?) The Gopher "D" continues to spring leaks fore and aft, and the Big Ten part of the schedule is still to come. Another loss or two beginning Saturday at Northwestern and the questions in the Twin Cities won't be if HC Tim Brewster makes it back for next season, but if he can even survive the remainder of this season. This week at Northwestern

Duke...Where's the defense? It's not the first time we've seen the Blue Devils shorthanded on the stop unit. But last week's abject capitulation vs. Army's option could signal more trouble on Saturday against Da'Rel Scott, Davin Meggett and the g round-oriented Maryland attack. Moreover, Duke QB Sean Renfree is off by far his most-wobbly effort of the season last week vs. West Point. The season could really begin to slip away from David Cutcliffe's squad unless it can stem the bleeding this week at College Park. This week at Maryland

Rutgers...There looks to be no sharp edge to a Rutgers attack that is having trouble finding another big-play component to take some of the opposing defense's attention away from dangerous "Slash" Mohamed Sanu. If the Scarlet Knights (0-3 vs. the number) don't find some offense against Tulane week, then we wond er if it is ever going to show up at all this season. This week hosts Tulane

Wake Forest...Was it all just a dream the past few years for the Demon Deacons? Bowl games? BCS? The Orange Bowl? Wake didn't make the postseason last year, either, but looks even further away from a bowl assignment this season with a defense that lacks playmakers and has been bowled over the past two weeks by Stanford and Florida State, foes the Deacs have beaten in recent years. Replacing longtime QB Riley Skinner (had he been on campus since Arnold Palmer attended Wake?) has been another challenge for Jim Grobe. Suddenly, the Deacs (no covers their last three) look a lot like the old, outmanned Wake teams we used to remember. This weeks hosts Georgia Tech

Kentucky...The Wildcats as usual feasted upon a soft slate of non-conference opposition, but like recent years at the first sign of a real test, UK crumbled, as it did again last week at Florida. The Cats were manhandled, raising the question how many more times that might happen in conference play. Some UK supporters are also beginning to wonder why HC Joker Phillips is continuing to stick with immobile Sr. QB Mike Hartline after Soph QB Morgan Newton, now sitting the bench, was 5-2 as a starter when replacing the injured Hartline last fall and engineered rare road upsets for UK at Auburn and Georgia. The rest of the SEC slate is going to be a lot tougher than early victims Western Kentucky and Akron, too. This week at Ole Miss

Buffalo...We're not getting good vibes from the Bulls, who have been overwhelmed in three straight weeks by modest opposition (Baylor, UCF, and UConn). New QB Jerry Davis (only 44% completions in his last three games) is struggling, and it looks like Turner Gill got out of town at just the right time. It appears as if there is not a lot for new HC Jeff Quinn to work with in Buffalo. This week at Bowling Green

Boston College...Some ACC sources believe the BC program might be entering a period of decline under HC Frank Spaziani, a defensive man who has little clue about what makes an offense tick. And his veteran o.c., long-ago Navy HC Gary Tranquill, appears well past his sell-by date. Pulling vet QB Dave Shinskie out of the lineup in last week's ugly 19-0 loss to Virginia Tech might be understandable. But rolling the dice on either of the inexperienced relievers, Soph Mike Marscovetra or true frosh Chase Rettig, one of whom Spaziani will opt to start this week vs. an angry Notre Dame, hardly seems as if it will help in the short term. For the moment, the Eagles' offensive problems appear acute. This week hosts Notre Dame

UL-Monroe...We said in the offseason that we didn't know why the Warhawks ran HC Charlie Weatherbie out of town just when he looked to have ULM on the verge of getting over the hump in the Sun Belt. And nothing we have seen from the new regime of Todd Berry has made us change our mind. The Warhawks barely survived last week vs. a Southland Conference rep, the Lion s from SE Louisiana, and now get fed to the Tiger den at Auburn, which has outscored ULM a combined 190-21 the last four meetings. We suggest women and children be kept out of Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday afternoon. This week at Auburn