Games to Watch - Week 8
By Judd Hall
It looks like nobody wants to be at the top of the college football rankings after the Buckeyes fell flat in Madison against the Badgers. Will that No. 1 ranking be poison to the teams both afforded that spot this week? We’ll look at both of them as some of our better games to watch in Week 8.
LSU at Auburn
Skinny
Few people would have guessed that the battle of Tigers would have the pole position in the SEC West hanging in the balance, but that's what is going on at Jordan-Hare Stadium. LSU finds themselves unbeaten despite some questionable moments in Les Miles' thought process. The Bayou Bengals aren't doing much to wow people on offense with 328.6 YPG on offense. But you don't have to be stellar on the attack if you have a defense that is giving up just 242.1 YPG to rank 3rd nationally like LSU. Auburn is coming off of the highest scoring game in SEC history with its 65-43 triumph over the Razorbacks. Look no further than Cam Newton for the Tigers' success as he's pulling in 305.4 YPG in total offense. That ability from Newton has helped Auburn to improve in its red zone offense, ranking 18th nationally 34 scores in 38 drives inside the 20-yard line.
Gambling Notes
Auburn comes into this game as a six-point home "chalk." While the spin is totally on the side of War Eagle, it's LSU that holds the advantage. Those Bayou Bengals have gone 4-1 SU, but 2-3 ATS in the last five meetings. However, Les Miles' club has covered the number in two straight meetings. Plus, LSU has shown to be a tough out in recent times as they are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS when playing as a road pup in SEC contests. Auburn, however, has gone 3-0 SU and ATS as a home favorite in games coming off of two straight 'over' wins. Incidentally, the 'over' is 3-0 in that stretch as well.
Oklahoma at Missouri
Skinny
Oregon might be the No. 1 team in the human polls, but the Sooners take the top spot in the BCS rankings. Oklahoma needed a little in terms of style points this week against the Cyclones. Well, they got just what they wanted as OU drilled Iowa State 52-0. They racked up 672 yards on offense, while giving up just 183 yards. While everyone is paying attention to those guys from Norman, the Tigers are rolling right along in the Big XII North. Missouri has gone 6-0 SU (3-2 ATS) this year with little to no publicity. Blaine Gabbert has guided the Tigers to their strong start with a passing game that is averaging 282.3 YPG through the air. But Mizzou has also been brutal on defense this season, evidenced by a unit allowing 328.7 YPG in 2010. The Tigers' defense has been opportunistic with 14 takeaways this season. Plus, they have given up just 9 points in two conference matches.
Gambling Notes
Most betting shops have made the Sooners three-point road favorites for this game. Hard to argue with that logic as Oklahoma has won seven straight games in this series, with Missouri covering the spread in three of those tests. That includes two straight Big XII Title Game battles that were all Sooners. Mizzou will have to shake off some bad vibes in this game as they've gone 1-4 SU and ATS as a home pup in conference matchups since 2001. If you search for the Tigers as home underdogs after watching the 'under' cash in two straight games, you'll see that they're 0-3 SU and ATS. The Sooners aren't a gimme in this spot either for our purposes with a 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS mark in games as road favorites after back-to-back ATS Wins. The 'under' has gone on a 4-1 run in that stretch as well.
Other Games to Watch
Nebraska at Oklahoma State
Nebraska found out the hard way that they couldn't just run at will over the Longhorns. This game isn't a "gimme" either with the Cowboys owning a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS record in the last five meetings of this series. Will the Cornhuskers' defense be able to hold down what has been a fairly impressive Oklahoma State offense.
North Carolina at Miami
The Tar Heels have done a lot without many of their best defensive players. Miami still can't decided if it is a good team or just a middle-of-the-pack group. We'll find out more about the Hurricanes at home this weekend in what can be considered an elimination game for the ACC Coastal Division.
Notre Dame vs. Navy
This series has been a true dogfight with the Midshipmen taking two in a row in South Bend. The focus for this storied rivalry now goes to Meadowlands Stadium in New Jersey. Notre Dame has done well enough against the run in Brian Kelly's first year. Can they handle Navy's option attack?
Air Force at TCU
The Horned Frogs are still well in the hunt for the national championship. Now they get their first real conference threat in the Air Force Academy. The Falcons might be coming off of a loss at San Diego State, but this is a team that has proven to be a tough out all year long. The Air Force has covered two of the last three games against TCU, including last year's 20-17 setback in Colorado Springs. Could the Zoomies knock TCU off of its lofty perch?
Big Ten Report
By ASA
Iowa Hawkeyes (5-1, 4-2 ATS) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (6-1, 2-5 ATS)
IOWA: Last week: Defeated Michigan, 38-28
UW: Last week: Defeated Ohio State, 31-18
These two “mirror image” rivals share a lot of similarities on both offense and defense. Both teams have a very balanced attack that slightly favors the run. Wisconsin averages 433 yards per game and scores 36.3 ppg. Iowa averages 419 yards per game and scores 34.3 ppg. The Badgers are coming off of arguably the biggest home game in school history – an upset of then #1 Ohio State. They’ll try to avoid a letdown on the road and notch their second straight win over a highly ranked opponent.
The Hawkeyes defeated Michigan in Ann Arbor despite allowing 522 yards and 29 first downs. They capitalized on a +4 turnover ratio while QB Stanzi (248 yards, 3 TD) and RB Robinson (143 rushing yards, 2 TD) both had huge days on offense. Stanzi is now completing 68% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions this season. Wisconsin’s defense shutdown OSU’s Pryor last week and is allowing just 56% to opposing QB’s this season.
Wisconsin rode RB’s John Clay and James White for 179 yards on 40 carries against a normally stout Ohio State run defense. Their offensive line dominated OSU’s defense and kept QB Tolziens jersey nice and clean. They’ll try and duplicate that performance against this Iowa defense that is allowing just 84 rushing yards per game. Iowa did show some chinks in the armor last week, however; as they allowed a season high 187 rushing yards to Michigan (previous high was 78).
Stanzi is 28/41 for 332 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions in two starts against the Badgers (both Hawkeye victories). Iowa is 10-3-1 playing against Wisconsin at Kinnick Stadium since 1980. They’ve covered 4 of the last 5 home games and are 7-1 ATS in the past 8 meetings overall. Wisconsin is just 2-6 ATS in its last 8 as a road ‘dog and they opened as a 5.5 point underdog.
Northwestern Wildcats (5-1, 2-4 ATS) vs. Michigan State Spartans (7-0, 5-2 ATS)
NU: Last week: Idle
MSU: Last week: Defeated Illinois, 26-6
The Spartans are 7-0 for the first time since ‘66, but they have yet to play a game outside the state of Michigan. Their offense struggled last week against Illinois for the first time this season. The defensive unit picked up the slack by holding the Illini to just 255 yards (2.7 yards per carry) and forcing four turnovers. Michigan State's opportunistic defense has recorded 12 interceptions this fall and is allowing just 16.6 ppg. The Spartans opened as a 7 point road favorite, but that line has dropped down to 5.
Had Northwestern not missed two field goals in its last game against Purdue two weeks ago, we’d probably be looking at a battle of the unbeaten in the Big Ten. NW outgained the Boilermakers by 110 yards, but couldn’t convert their drives into touchdowns and lost by three. Northwestern QB Persa is averaging 277 ypg (78%) with 10 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions while rushing for 295 yards and 3 touchdowns (team’s leading passer & rusher). They’ve had an extra week off to get healthy and prepare for the Spartans. The Wildcats are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss.
The underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings and Northwestern is 5-1 ATS in its past 6 meetings. The Wildcats are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog and are usually good for one significant upset per year. They upset an undefeated Iowa team a year ago and they’ve notched five wins over ranked opponents since 2005.
Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1, 5-2 ATS) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (4-2, 3-3 ATS)
OSU: Last week: Lost to Wisconsin, 18-31
PU: Last week: Defeated Minnesota, 28-17
Purdue is one of those teams that always plays well against Ohio State. They are 3-5 in the last eight meetings with OSU, covering six of those eight. But this one looks like it could get ugly. OSU is in a revenge situation after last year’s loss to Purdue and the Buckeyes are coming off of their first loss this season. After the Buckeyes last nine regular season losses, they’ve bounced back by going a perfect 9-0 the week after. They are averaging 32 PPG and winning by an average of 23 PPG the week after a loss (7-2 ATS). They opened as 23 point favorites.
Few would have envisioned a 2-0 Big Ten start several weeks ago, but Purdue continues to show improvement on both sides of the ball. After just two starts, freshman quarterback Rob Henry now leads the team in rushing with 394 yards (5.6 ypc) with four touchdowns. He does, however, continue to struggle throwing the ball. He’s completing just 51% of his passes for 5.6 yards per completion with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Now he has to travel to the Horseshoe to face an OSU defense that has allowed just 4 touchdown passes and has forced 12 interceptions.
The Boilermakers haven’t been a 20 point underdog in over 13 years and they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. OSU is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games as a 20 or more point favorite and is also 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. Purdue held Ohio State to just 34 rushing yards on 21 attempts and forced five OSU turnovers in their 26-18 upset win last season. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Illinois Fighting Illini (3-2, 4-1 ATS) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (4-2, 3-3 ATS)
ILL: Last week: Lost to Michigan State, 6-26
IND: Last week: Defeated Arkansas State, 36-34
Illinois performed well defensively in their road game at Michigan State last week, but couldn’t muster more than six points on offense. Indiana’s lone Big Ten victory last year came against the Illini. Ben Chappell and Indiana's high-powered pass attack will try to duplicate last year’s performance (333 passing yards, 3 TD’s) against an improved Illinois defense that’s allowing just 303 yards per game. Illinois opened as a 12.5 point favorite.
Illinois held a 6-3 lead over the Spartans at halftime last week, but turned the ball over four times and allowed 23 2nd half points. Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase had another freshman-like game, completing 15 of 27 for 141 yards with 3 interceptions. He’s now completing just 58% with 4 touchdowns and 7 interceptions this season. Illinois’ defense has faced a trio of stud quarterbacks so far this season in Terrelle Pryor, Blaine Gabbert, and Kirk Cousins; and each quarterback led Illinois’ opponent to victory. Indiana’s Ben Chappell (16 TD’s, 68%) will try to do the same.
Indiana has no trouble piling up yards and points on offense. But their defense is simply incompetent. Last week, Arkansas State's QB Aplin completed 33/44 for 275 yards with two touchdowns and nearly led the Red Wolves to an upset. This Hoosier defense allows 401 ypg (89th), 29 ppg (83rd), and will be tested by this Illini offense.
Indiana is just 10-22-1 ATS in its previous 23 Big Ten road games. The Hoosiers are also just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a double digit underdog. The Illini are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Illinois has won two of the last three meetings and the home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Minnesota Gophers (1-6, 3-4 ATS) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (3-3, 1-5 ATS)
MINN: Last Week: Lost to Purdue, 17-28
PSU: Last week: Idle
After six straight losses, Minnesota fired fourth-year head coach Tim Brewster. Offensive coordinator Jeff Horton will take over as interim head coach and his first task will be to take on a hungry Penn State team coming off of their bye week. Penn State has won three straight over the Gophers by an average margin of 17 ppg. Last year, PSU outgained Minnesota by 326 yards and held the ball for 42 minutes. Penn State opened this meeting as a 9 point favorite.
Besides scoring 44 points in their season opening victory over Youngstown State, Penn State’s offense has failed to take off. They’ve been held under 25 points and are averaging just 13 ppg in their last five games. Freshman QB Bolden has just 4 touchdowns and is completing 56% of his passes and RB Royster has just 388 rushing yards and one touchdown. Expect this offense to have a little more success post-bye week and against this Gophers defense that allows a Big Ten-high 31.7 points a game. Minnesota is 0-4 at home this season. They have a good balance on offense with QB Weber’s 14 touchdown passes and 237 passing yards per game, and RB’s Bennett and Eskridge 765 rushing yards. It’s their defense that can’t stop anyone. They are allowing 201 rushing yards per game (102nd nationally) and 414 total ypg (97th). They’ve only held one opponent under 20 points and that was Middle Tennessee State in week one.
The Gophers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games but 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Penn State is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as a road favorite and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Michigan Wolverines (5-2, 3-4 ATS)
UM: Last week: Lost to Iowa, 28-38
The bye week comes at a perfect time for Rich Rodriguez’s crew. Star QB Denard Robinson left last week with a shoulder injury and will use this week to heal up. Defensively this team needs to get a lot better before their trip to Happy Valley next Saturday. This unit ranks 105th in the nation and has allowed 496 ypg and 36 ppg in three Big Ten games this season.
Stryker's Big 10 Preview
By Tom Stryker
After some surprising twists and turns in Big Ten football the last couple of weeks, no one expects anything less this weekend, when five games are likely to shed some more light on how crowded the top of the conference standings will be a month from now.
Wisconsin's spanking of then-No. 1 Ohio State leaves only three unbeatens in league play - Iowa, Michigan State and Purdue (yes, Purdue).
All three face rugged tests this week. So let's look at this week's action:
Wisconsin at IOWA
After a disappointing loss to Arizona, Iowa quickly regained the national eye by climbing to 5-1, 3-0. Ranked No. 12, the Hawkeyes host the Badgers, (6-1, 2-1), a team that really needs to regain focus for this Saturday after the huge triumph at home last Saturday against Ohio State.
The Hawkeyes are 6th in the nation in scoring defense (13.2) and 7th in the nation in rushing defense (83.8), and they will need all the D they can muster when the Badgers come calling. John Clay and James White, the Badgers talented backfield duo, are the most prolific tandem in the nation, having gained a combined 1,356 rushing yards in seven games. Wisconsin Coach Bret Bielema likes the run, but in Scott Tolzien, he has a quarterback who can hurt defenses as well. Tolzien is 16-4 as a starter and his 148.1 passing rating is the highest in school history.
Kirk Ferentz counters with Ricky Stanzi, the Big Ten offensive player of the week. Stanzi is 99-145 for 13 TDs and 1,474 yards. His 180.49 efficiency rating is 3rd best in the nation. Iowa later in the season still has to face Ohio State and Michigan State - so a loss here could be pivotal in Hawkeye hopes for a title. Similarly, the Badgers know that two league losses are not likely to stand up when the fall wars are over.
SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Iowa 20-7-1 SU and 17-11 ATS L28 vs Wisconsin including 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
KEY ANGLES: Iowa 36-12-1 SU and 30-18-1 ATS as a Big 10 host checking in with momentum off a SU and ATS win. In this role facing a foe that arrives off a SU and ATS win, the Hawkeyes improve to a profitable 15-4-1 ATS.
Wisconsin is10-29 SU and 13-23-3 ATS as a conference guest tackling an opponent that enters off a SU and ATS victory.
Penn St at MINNESOTA
Maybe this should be called the disappointment bowl. Penn State is an uncharacteristic 3-3, 0-2, while Minnesota is 1-6, 0-3. The dismal start cost Tim Brewster his head coaching job last Sunday. Former offensive coordinator Jeff Horton will lead Minnesota the rest of this season. Saturday's loser stays in the Big Ten cellar.
Penn State's troubles rest with the offense. Coach Joe Paterno, who is having trouble recruiting because of his age and questions about how long he will remain, knows his team only averages 126 rushing yards. And with quarterback Rob Bolden struggling (only 4 TDs with 7 interceptions), there is too much of a burden on the Nittany Lions defense. PSU has lost safety Jeff Sukay for the season with a torn pectoral muscle.
Quarterback Adam Weber is one of the lone bright spots for the Gophers, whose defense is giving up 31.7 points each game. Weber needs only 100 yards passing to become the 5th quarterback in Big Ten history to pass for more than 10,000 yards.
SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Penn State 7-4 SU and 4-7 ATS L11 vs Minnesota including a dismal 0-4 ATS in this role provided the Golden Gophers enter off a SU loss.
KEY ANGLES: Minnesota 24-10 SU and 23-8 ATS L34 facing an opponent that arrives off a blowout loss of 14 points or more including 11-2 ATS in its own backyard in this role.
Penn State 18-6 ATS priced as a road favorite of -8.5 or more matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage less than .450.
Purdue at OHIO ST
How angry are the 6-1, 2-1 Buckeyes? The surprising Boilermakers (4-2, 2-0) may find out Saturday.
Redshirt freshman quarterback Rob Henry has transformed Danny Hope's team from a pass-first to a run-first offensive unit. Henry ran for three TDs and passed for another in a victory over Minnesota last Saturday. Purdue upset Ohio State a year ago, and will need a similar effort Saturday to stay in the league hunt. The Boilers still have Penn State, Iowa and Michigan remaining before ending the season with in-state rival Indiana.
Ohio State and Jim Tressel are anxious to remove the bad taste from last week's upset loss at Wisconsin. And quarterback Terrelle Pryor could be at his best against the Boilers. Pryor needs only 90 passing yards to reach 5,000. The Bucks still lead the conference in scoring at 39.6 points per game, and continue to lead in total defense, allowing only 251.1 yards.
SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Ohio State 18-5 SU and 12-11 ATS L33 vs Purdue including a soft 2-5 ATS in this role if the Boilermakers enter off a SU and ATS win.
KEY ANGLES: Ohio State 28-7 SU and 22-12-1 ATS coming off a straight up loss including 19-4 SU and 17-5-1 ATS in this role matched up against a Big 10 foe. Buckeyes also are 8-0 ATS in their last eight when playing with revenge.
Purdue 2-17 SU and 5-14 ATS on foreign soil tackling a winning team that checks in off a SU and ATS loss.
Michigan St at NORTHWESTERN
What's this? Michigan State is the team to beat in the Big Ten? That could be the case after the Spartans already own wins over Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois. The Spartans are 7-0 and atop the Big Ten with a 3-0 record.
Ranked No. 8, Michigan State’s defense has held five opponents to 17 points or fewer – and it will take a solid defensive effort to slow Northwestern’s Dan Persa, who has completed 75% of his passes this fall.
The Spartans feature great balance offensively. Sophomore Edwin Baker rushes at a 100.9-yard clip, while freshman Leveon Bell adds 80.3 more yards per game. Junior quarterback Kirk Cousins continues to impress and mature. He has thrown for 1,289 yards and 9 TDs.
Coach Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats (5-1, 1-1) were idle a week ago after being upset at home the previous Saturday by Purdue. Persa’s 173.3 passer rating is 4th among all FBS schools. His favorite receiver is wideout Jeremy Ebert who has 35 receptions for 560 yards and 5 TDs.
SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Michigan State 18-8 SU and 12-14 ATS L 26 vs Northwestern including 11-4 SU and 9-6 ATS in this role provided the Spartans enter off a momentum-building SU win.
KEY ANGLES: Northwestern is 25-83 SU and 39-69 ATS L108 battling an opponent that checks in off a SU and ATS win.
Michigan St 38-23-1 ATS as a guest checking in with momentum off a SU and ATS win including 25-11 ATS in this role if the Spartans opponent is a winning team.
Indiana at ILLINOIS
Coach Ron Zook's Illini (3-3, 1-2) have been beaten by Ohio State and Michigan State in league play. At first glance, the visiting Hoosiers are easy prey. But Zook is effusive in his praise of Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell, who is throwing for 309.7 yards an outing, while completing 16 TD passes in six games.
But Indiana's defense is porous, as narrow 36-34 victory last Saturday over lowly Arkansas State indicates. Illinois only allows 113 yards on the ground and 200 through the air – and those numbers will be needed by the Illini on Saturday. Through this point of the season, Illinois schedule has been rated the second toughest in the country. Illinois' first six opponents are a combined 26-7.
SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Illinois 18-8 SU and 15-11 ATS L26 vs Indiana including an undefeated 8-0 SU and ATS if the Hoosiers arrive off a straight up victory.
KEY ANGLES: Illinois 28-7 SU and 21-14 ATS L35 priced as a Big 10 favorite facing an opponent that enters off a straight up win including 27-3 SU and 20-10 ATS in this role if the Illini are a winning team.
Indiana 5-42 SU and 15-31-1 ATS L47 as a conference guest including a shocking 1-15 SU and 4-11-1 ATS in this role if the Big 10 scoot in off a SU win.
NOTE: Michigan, after consecutive losses to Michigan State and Iowa, is idle this Saturday.
Saturday's Games
Highlighted Games
Navy beat Notre Dame two of last three years, after not having beat the Irish since Staubach era; last three in series were all decided by three or less points. Underdog is 8-5 vs spread in last 13. Navy is 4-2, losing by 3 to Maryland, 8 at Air Force- in their last four games, they outscored opponents 66-24. Irish won last three games by 18-6-24 points. Under is 5-2 in ND games this season.
North Carolina won last four games, allowing 14 ppg, despite not having full roster yet this season (suspensions); they've beaten Miami last three meetings, by 9-4-6 points, with underdog covering five of last six series games. Miami is +8 in turnovers with 584 rushing yards in the last three games- they lost 45-17 to Florida State in its only home game vs D-I foe. Former Miami coach Davis making last visit to south Florida?
Underdog is 11-2 vs spread in last 13 Georgia Tech-Clemson games; LY, Tech beat Tigers twice and is 6-1 in last seven series games, winning last four, with last three all by five or less points. Jackets are 4-2 in last six visits here. Clemson is 0-3 this year in games decided by 9 or less points they snapped 3-game skid by beating Maryland last week. Tech wears opponents down, scoring 17+ in second half in each of last four games.
Iowa won six of last eight games vs Wisconsin, with five of six wins by 10+ points; Badgers are 1-3 in last four visits here, with losses by 22-23-17 points. Hawkeyes are 3-0 as home favorite this year, winning at home by 28-45-21 points- they're +10 in turnovers last five games, outscoring last three opponents 59-10 in first half. Wisconsin is 1-1 on road, with a 34-24 loss at Michigan State after a 41-21 win at UNLV.
Underdog covered seven of last eight Michigan State-Northwestern tilts, with visitor winning four of last five; Spartans won last three visits here, by 37-29/41-38/39-24. Four of five Wildcat games vs I-A foes were won by five or less points (dogs 4-1 vs spread). Spartans won 34-17 in only previous road game, at Michigan- they're +8 in turnovers last five games. Northwestern foes are just 8 for last 34 on third down.
South Carolina-Vanderbilt winner will lead SEC East, despite 43-0 loss last week by Vandy at Georgia; underdog covered last three series games, with Commodores winning two of last three. Carolina won four of last five visits here, winning by 18-25-6-16 points- they blew 28-10 lead at Kentucky last week, after RB Lattimore sprained ankle- he isn't expected to start this game.
Houston Nutt faces his old team as Ole Miss visits Arkansas; not sure if Hog QB Mallett (concussion) will play. Favorite is 6-2 vs spread in last 8 series games; Rebels won last visit here after losing previous three by average score of 40-11- they were gritty in 23-10 loss at Alabama last week. Home favorites are 10-6 vs spread in SEC games this year, 7-3 if it is a single digit spread.
Oklahoma is somehow ranked #1 in country despite winning at mediocre Cincinnati 31-29 (-14) in only true road game; Sooners won seven in row vs Missouri, winning last twi played here, 26-10/31-24- in last five tilts, Oklahoma outscored opponents 113-26. Mizzou outscored its last three foes 63-3 in first half; they covered only game as dog last week, winning at A&M. Big 12 home underdogs are 1-5 vs spread this season.
6-0 Oklahoma State is averaging 49.5 ppg, now hosts smarting Nebraska squad that lost at home to Texas in game they had built up all summer. Cornhuskers lost three of last four in series, despite being favored in all four- they lost 41-24/24-21 in last two years. OSU ran ball for total of 584 yards in last two series games. Huskers won 56-21/48-13 in its two road games. Cowboys covered only game as an underdog this year.
Underdog won SU in six of last seven Washington-Arizoa games, with average total in last three meetings, 73.3. Road team won seven of last 10 in series. Arizona QB Foles sprained knee last week, explaining mediocre 24-7 win at doormat Wazzu last week. Washington is 3-3, with their last two wins by single point each (underdog covered their last four games). Huskies beat Arizona 36-33 LY, despite being outgained 469-256.
Cal won six of last seven games vs Arizona State, with favorites covering four of last five; Sun Devils lost last four visits here, by 10-1-28-27 pts. ASU is just 1-3 vs I-A teams this year, but 3-0-1 vs spread, with losses by 1-11-3 points- they had last week off, while Cal was getting crushed at USC. Golden Bears are 2-0 as home favorite this year, winning 52-7 over Colorado, 35-7 over UCLA.
Auburn/LSU are both 7-0; favorites are 6-3-1 vs spread in last 10 series games. LSU lost four of last five visits here, losing by 4-1-24-17 points- average total in their last four visits here is just 28.5. Explosive Newton carrying Auburn team that won last two games despite allowing 77 pts. Four of LSU's six games vs I-A opponents were decided by six points or less. Last four Auburn games all went over the total.
Georgia is 2-1 since WR Green returned; they're 0-3 on road, 0-3 if they score less than 41 points. Kentucky split pair of wild home games last two weeks, losing 37-34 to Auburn before rallying from down 28-10 to upset Gamecocks. Wildcats covered three of last four games vs Georgia, but Dawgs won five of last six visits here. Kentucky's last six games all went over the total
Air Force lost last three visits to TCU, 44-10/38-14/35-34; they're 1-5 in last six series games, but three of six games were decided by three points or less. Falcons are 5-2, losing by 3 at Oklahoma, 2 at San Diego St, with five of six games staying under total. TCU outscored last three foes by amazing 103-3 margin- they haven't allowed a first half point or turned ball over in three October games so far.
Rest of the Card
-- UConn kicked starting QB Endres off team; they're 0-3 on road, losing to Michigan-Temple-Rutgers- they beat Louisville three in row, by 13-5-4 points. Over is 3-1 in last four Louisville games, last three Husky tilts.
-- Virginia Tech won last six games vs Duke, winning last three played in Blacksburg 14-3/36-0/41-17. Blue Devils are -12 in turnovers last three games- they're 1-0-1 as road underdogs this season.
-- Boston College won four of last five games vs Maryland, with home side covering last four; Terps lost last two visits here by 7-22 pts. BC lost its last four games, scoring just 12.5 ppg.
-- East Carolina is 4-2 despite being underdogin five of six games; they're -11 in turnovers last three games, but still posted upsets last two weeks. Marshall lost last two visits here, 19-16/33-20.
-- Temple lost last two visits to Buffalo, 9-3/30-28. Bulls are 2-4, with all four losses by 14+ points- they threw 11 INTs in last four games. Last three Buffalo games went over the total.
-- Underdog is 6-3 in last nine Penn St-Minnesota games; Gophers fired their coach Sunday- this is first game for interim coach. Lions lost both road games this year 24-3, but they were at Alabama/Iowa.
-- Purdue upset Ohio State LY, but they've lost last four visits here by 13-3-26-3 points. Since 2001, Buckeyes are 12-5 vs spread in the game following a loss- they're 5-0 as a home favorite this year.
-- Underdog is 6-2 vs spread in last eight Rutgers-Pitt games, with the Scarlet Knights 4-1 in last five, winning last two here, 54-34/20-10. This is first game for Rutgers since teammate was paralyzed from neck down.
-- West Virginia won last eight games vs Syracuse (7-2 vs spread in last nine); Orange lost last four visits here by 11-24-21-27 points. West Va covered last four games overall, is 3-0 as home favorite this year.
-- Favorite is 6-3 vs spread in last nine Indiana-Illinois games. Hoosiers lost five of last six visits here, covering one of last four. Illinois played last three games vs Ohio St-Penn St-Michigan St; now they're favored.
-- Iowa State is 0-2 as road dog, losing 35-7 at Iowa, 52-0 at Oklahoma; they lost last three visits to Texas by 23-11-21 points, but covered two of the three games. Longhorns are 1-3 as a favorite this year.
-- Ohio U won four in row vs Miami, all by 9+ points; favorites are 5-1 vs spread in Bobcats' last six visits here. Ohio ran ball for 709 yards in last three games, outscoring last two opponents 52-6 in first half.
-- BYU blasted Wyoming 44-0/52-0 last two years, but Cougars are just 2-5 this year, with all seven games staying under total. Cowboys are 2-4 vs spread this year, losing last two games by combined score of 75-6.
-- Kansas State won five of last six games vs Baylor; last meeting was '07. Favorites are 6-0 vs spread in Baylor games this year; Bears are 2-0 as home favorite this year, beating Buffalo 34-6, Kansas 55-7.
-- Favorite covered last four A&M-Kansas games, with Aggies winning last three visits here by 3-25-3 points. Jayhawks lost last two games in ugly fashion, 55-7 at Baylor, 59-7 at home to archrival K-State.
-- Mississippi State already beat two C-USA teams, drilling Memphis at home (49-7), Houston on road (47-24). Four of five MSU games stayed under total. UAB outscored 84-21 in first half of last five games.
-- Houston is 0-2 on road, losing 31-13 at UCLA, 34-31 at Rice; they've lost three of last four games with 3rd-string QB playing. Average total in last eight series games, 63.0. SMU is 1-3 as a favorite this season.
-- Bowling Green lost last four games, allowing 42.5 ppg; they're 8-1 in last nine games vs Kent State, with underdogs covering five of last six in series. Kent was outscored 81-24 in second half of last five games.
-- Akron is 0-7 this year, with all I-A losses by 11+ points; they've lost three of last four games vs Western Michigan, losing 17-0/24-10 last two times Broncos came here. MAC home teams are just 6-14 vs spread.
-- Northern Illinois outscored last three opponents 59-7 in second half of games; they've converted 27 of last 42 on 3rd down, but lost three games in row vs Central Michigan. Over is 4-1 in last five games for both sides.
-- Underdogs covered five of last six Alabama-Tennessee games, as Tide escaped LY's game with 12-10 win with blocked FG on last play. Five of last seven Bama games stayed under the total.
-- Idaho covered seven of last eight games vs New Mexico State, taking five of last six SU; Aggies lost four of last five visits here, losing by 6-8-3-4 points- they 1-2 as road dogs, losing by 32-36-23 points.
-- Hawai'i won four of last five games vs Utah State, with average total in those games, 72.8; dogs covered last three meetings. Hawai'i won two of its three road games and led 10-0 at half at Colorado in game it lost.
-- Utah won its last four games vs Colorado State, covering six of seven in series; Rams lost last three visits to Utah by 33-13-32 points (0-3 vs spread). State is 1-3 as road dog; all five of their losses are by 21+ pts.
-- Favorite covered last four Washington St-Stanford games; Coogs lost 58-0 in last visit here, after having won previous four visits- they're not good, but did cover last three weeks. Stanford is 3-1 as a favorite in '10.
-- Eastern Michigan got first win last week; they're 2-2 as road dog, but allowed average of 49 ppg in last five games. ACC home faves are 7-2 vs spread in non-league games. MAC road dogs are 12-15.
-- Central Florida QB Calabrese (knee) out for year, now they have to go with more mobile (and better) QB, frosh Godfrey. Rice upset crosstown rival Houston last week, but allowed 30+ points in every 2010 game.
-- Favorite covered last three Ball St-Toledo games; Cardinals won their last two visits to Glass Bowl, 31-0/20-17, but lost despite being favored last two weeks, giving up 87 points- their last three games went over.
-- Home team won five of last six TexasTech-Colorado games, with dogs covering five of six; Tech lost last three visits to Colorado by 24-24-2 points. Buffaloes covered once in four games as underdog this year.
-- Fresno State is 12-1 in last 13 games vs San Jose State, winning three in row by average score of 32-10; Bulldogs are 5-1-1 vs spread in last 7 series games. San Jose outscored 56-0 in second half of last four games.
-- Home team won last four Tulane-UTEP games, with average total of 60.2 in last five; Green Wave lost its last two visits here, 24-21/34-20. Underdogs covered last three series games.
-- New Mexico is 0-3 as home underdog, losing 56-17/56-19/38-20; they were outscored 104-23 in second half of games, are 1-5 vs spread overall this year. Aztecs are coming off big 27-25 win over Air Force last week.
-- UL-Lafayette is allowing 37.5 ppg, with four of six games going over total- they won 30-22 (-7) at Western Kentucky LY, outrushing WKU 230-167. ULL has been outscored 126-41 in secind half of games.
-- Arkansas State won three of four vs Florida Atlantic-- Owls last two visits here, 28-14/3-0. ASU is 2-0 as favorite this year- they covered 4 of last five games. Last four FAU games stayed under the total.
-- Dogs are 6-2 vs spread in last eight ULMonroe-Middle Tennessee tilts Dogs covered last four in series played here. ULM is 1-4 in its last five visits here, with three of the four losses by 13+ points.
Fade Alert - Week 8
By Bruce Marshall
Several college teams are beginning to lose momentum as the season passes its halfway point. The following sides could be candidates to "fade" in Saturday action. Teams appear in schedule order...
Duke... Don’t be scared away by the Blue Devils’ covers in their last two games. Hanging around vs. a suspect Maryland is no great achievement, and it’s a miracle that Duke wasn’t beaten worse last week by sluggish Miami, which failed to effectively capitalize on the myriad Blue Devil mistakes (7 turnovers). Of which QB Sean Renfree has been making plenty lately, tossing 10 picks in his last three games. If Renfree continues to misfire, it’s only a matter of time before Duke starts to regularly lose touch with opponents, with a rampant Virginia Tech a very scary matchup on Saturday. This week at Virginia Tech
Miami-Florida... Something seems amiss with the Hurricanes, and more than a few ACC sources believe it might be the presence of HC Randy Shannon, whom some are beginning to wonder if he really is the coach to lead the Cans back to prominence. It was bad enough to get blown out by Florida State 45-17 two weeks ago, but the manner in which Miami succumbed bothered longtime Cane fans who saw none of the normal Miami swagger as the Noles rolled up the score. And failing to beat or cover vs. Duke worse than last week’s 28-13 final when the Blue Devils coughed up the ball seven times is another red flag. Meanwhile, QB Jacory Harris’ ongoing inconsistencies are becoming harder to camouflage. The Canes will drop into minor bowl territory if they can’t turn things around this week at home vs. hot North Carolina, which has beaten Miami three in a row. This week hosts North Carolina
Buffalo... Maybe Turner Gill knew when to get out of town. Jeff Quinn’s debut season has not gone smoothly on the Niagara frontier, with the problems of a misfiring offense appearing acute and wasting some generally decent performances by the Bulls defense, which ranked 38th nationally last week. Quinn is reportedly ready to pull the plug on soph Jerry Davis and switch to true frosh Alex Zordich at QB, which might be a sign of surrender for the remainder of the season. This week hosts Temple
Minnesota... Keep reading, because even though the Gophers have been fading (six straight losses) and appear a candidate to continue to fade after HC Tim Brewster was forced to walk the plank after last week’s loss at Purdue, we suspect the Gophers might actually put up a fight, at least for a few weeks. Brewster’s departure might be a huge plus, interim HC Jeff Horton has been a head coach before (Nevada and UNLV in the '90s), Adam Weber remains a capable QB, and the Gophers haven’t been too terrible this season, losing a couple of close decisions and not yet getting hammered. The 118th-ranked defense, however, remains a mess. This week hosts Penn State
Iowa State... Where’s the defense? Not in Ames the past two weeks, as the Cyclones have been positively ghost-like on that side of the ball in consecutive losses to Utah (68-27) and Oklahoma (52-0), allowing 1265 yards in the process. And Texas Tech hit up ISU for almost 500 yards in the previous game. A return to a minor bowl is looking less likely each week. This week at Texas
Vanderbilt... Although the Commodores can actually take the lead in the SEC East with a win over South Carolina this weekend (really!), no one in Nashville is making plans for the SEC title game in Atlanta. The hopes of the Commodore faithful that interim HC Robbie Caldwell would be more aggressive in play-calling than conservative predecessor Bobby Johnson have been mostly dashed in the wake of last week’s ugly 43-0 beatdown administered by Georgia. There are still too many inconsistencies in the Vandy passing game, with QB Larry Smith tending to be wild on his throws and his receivers still likely to drop the ball even if they get their hands on it. Without a credible aerial diversion, the Dores have been dead meat if opponents can stop RBs Warren Norman and Zac Stacy. Moreover, the hopes that Caldwell would do enough to earn the job on a permanent basis are beginning to fade as well. As soon as it becomes apparent that Caldwell will indeed be only an interim appointment, this Vandy team could really unravel. This week hosts South Carolina
Kansas... We already mentioned Turner Gill in reference to Buffalo. But now he must be wondering what he got himself into at Kansas , which has been bombed in consecutive weeks by Baylor (55-7) and Kansas State (59-7). Hiring journeyman defensive coordinator Carl Torbush to implement a supposedly more "aggressive" defense has boomeranged, especially with KU’s stop unit appearing out of position on numerous occasions the past two games. The lack of a consistent infantry component has also put too much pressure of QB Jordan Webb to carry the offense. And so far, he hasn’t. This week hosts Texas A&M
Houston... We thought Case Keenum’s absence was going to hurt the Cougars, but apparently his absence has cost the team a bit more. Once Keenum went down and the Cougs lost the September 18 game at UCLA, there seemed to be a collective letdown, with all of the offseason hype about being a possible BCS Buster, as well as Keenum contending for the Heisman Trophy, now out the window. After frosh Terrance Broadway failed to ignite the offense, another frosh QB, David Piland, is trying to revive the spread. A bigger disappointment has been the defense under former Dallas Cowboys d.c. Brian Stewart, ranking 101st nationally vs. the rush. This week at SMU
Akron... Things aren’t getting any better for the winless Zips, now even beneath Eastern Michigan (which won last week at Ball State) at the foot of the MAC table. But if anyone is wondering if HC Rob Inaello is sorry he took the job...no, he’s not, because he would have been cast aside like every other member of Charlie Weis’ Notre Dame staff after last season. Still, the news keeps getting worse for the Zips, who lost top receiving threat Jeremy LaFrance to a knee injury last week vs. Ohio, while starting QB Patrick Nicely was KO’s by an ankle injury (though might be able to go this week). This week hosts Western Michigan
Ball State...How is this for a nice 2-week run at home...lose to Western Michigan and allow 45 points in the process (45-16 final), then became Eastern Michigan’s first victim in almost two years in a 41-38 OT defeat, blowing a 28-7 lead in the process. Can it get much worse in Muncie? Will famous alum David Letterman stop sending contributions? We do know that beleaguered HC Stan Parrish has just received the dreaded vote of confidence from AD Tom Collins after the EMU loss. Yet with a struggling offense that can’t pass effectively (top ‘09 WR Briggs Orsborn has just 10 catches thru 7 weeks). The Cards are now 4-16 under Parrish’s watch, or since Brady Hoke left town for San Diego State. Enough said. This week at Toledo
Tulane... A lot of good the return to the traditional white helmets has done the Wave, who are beginning to lose touch with the opposition after recent lopsided loss to Army and Tulsa. More bad news might be on the way until Tulane figures out how to run the ball a bit better (only 88 ypg) while slowing the opponents’ running game after Army and Tulsa gouged the Green Wave "D" for a whopping 644 YR the last two games. This week at UTEP
Tips and Trends
LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers
L. TIGERS: With a hard earned win today, LSU could be the only team left in the SEC undefeated. Prior to the season beginning, one can only imagine the odds you would have been looking at. LSU continues their improbable run this season, as they face arguably their toughest test of the season. LSU is 7-0 SU and 3-4 ATS overall this season, placing them 6th in the national polls. The Tigers will be the listed underdog for only the 2nd time this season, the last time ending in an outright win on the road at Florida. Coach Miles have been criticized constantly this year, but nobody can take away their results to date. Despite a one dimensional offense that is only producing 26.7 PPG, they are still undefeated. QB Jordan Jefferson has had problems this year, which has forced LSU to stick to the running game for success. RB Stevan Ridely has rushed for a team high 686 YDS this season, including 6 TD's. Without question, defense rules the day for LSU. Behind one of the fastest and most aggressive defenses in the nation, LSU is only allowing 14.4 PPG this year. Only 2 opponents have scored more than 14 PTS against the Tigers this season. The Tigers are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog between 3.5 and 10 points. The Tigers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
LSU is 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 9-2 last 11 games following a ATS loss.
Key Injuries - WR Chris Tolliver (concussion) is questionable.
Projected Score: 17
A. TIGERS: (-6, O/U 52) Auburn is certainly hoping revenge will be sweet, as they look to beat LSU for the first time in 4 attempts. Auburn is undefeated and ranked 4th in the nation, thanks to a 7-0 SU record. The Tigers are 4-3 ATS this season, as they've been the listed favorite in each game they've played. The Tigers are led by QB Cam Newton, on the short list as a Heisman candidate. Newton is a duel threat QB, who has combined for more than 2,000 total yards this year, along with 25 TD's. Newton leads the SEC in rushing at 123 rushing YPG this season. Behind Newton, Auburn is averaging 283.7 rushing YPG, 6th best in the nation. The Tigers scored a season high 65 PTS in their last game, and are averaging more than 40 PPG for the year. Auburn has allowed 24 PTS or more in 5 of their 7 contests this year, a stat that much change if they are to challenge for a BCS championship berth. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Auburn is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win.
Auburn 18-8-1 ATS last 27 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Over is 10-3 last 13 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - OL Roszell Gayden (shoulder) is questionable.
Projected Score: 31 (SIDE of the Day)
Oklahoma Sooners at Missouri Tigers
SOONERS: (-3, O/U 52.5) Oklahoma is the #1 team in the first BCS standings released for this season. Whether it's suprising or not is up to you, but Oklahoma has several key tests to pass before they are playing in the BCS championship game. The Sooners will be playing only their 2nd road game of the season today. Oklahoma barely beat Cincinnati in their only other road game, winning 31-29 SU as 14 point underdogs. Today represents the shortest line the Sooners have faced this season, and only the 3rd time they are just a single digit favorite. The Sooners have an elite offense that is averaging 36 PPG, 17th best in the nation. QB Landry Jones is a dynamic talent, and he's thrown for nearly 1,800 YDS and 14 TD's this season. RB DeMarco Murray is a bruising runner who has rushed for 663 YDS this season and has 12 TD's overall this year. This Sooners defense isn't as good as past years, which has led to some close games for Oklahoma this year. Prior to their bye week leading up to Iowa St, the Sooners had played 4 very tight games. Oklahoma has dominated Missouri for quite some time now, winning 19 of the past 20 meetings SU. The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite up to a field goal. The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
Sooners are 0-5-1 ATS last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Key Injuries - DL Casey Walker (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
TIGERS: Missouri has a chance for history tonight, as they can start 7-0 SU for the first time since 1960. Beating Oklahoma will be a tall order, but let's not forget that Missouri is undefeated in their own right at 7-0 SU. The Tigers are winning with defense this year, as they are only allowing 10.9 PPG, 2nd best in the nation. This Tigers defense is flying to the ball, and are putting an abundance of pressure on the opposing QB. Only 1 opponent has scored more than 13 PTS against Missouri this year. Offensively, Missouri is averaging 34.5 PPG, 24th best in the nation. The Tigers are led by the arm of QB Blaine Gabbert, as he's the key to this offensive attack. Behind Gabbert, the Tigers are averaging 282.8 YPG through the air, 19th best in the nation. Gabbert is completing nearly 67% of his passes, for nearly 1,600 YDS and 10 TD's this year. Despite being ranked 11th in the BCS standings, Missouri will be the listed underdog for the 2nd week in a row. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Missouri is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games overall. The Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as the listed underdog. Missouri is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Tigers are 0-5 ATS last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 8-0 last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - DE Aldon Smith (leg) is questionable.
Projected Score: 20
Oklahoma at Missouri: What Bettors Need to Know
By Marc Lawrence
The new No. 1 team in the Coaches Poll, Oklahoma (6-0, 2-0), takes on 12th-rated Missouri (6-0, 2-0) at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, where a “gold-out” crowd of over 70,000 is anticipated Saturday evening.
Streaky
When top-ranked OU faces Missouri in Columbia Saturday evening. the Sooners will be carrying a seven-game winning streak against the Tigers and both teams are riding six-game win streaks this season.
The Sooners amassed 672 yards of total offense in last week’s 52-0 walkover win against Iowa State in a series they've dominated, winning 68 of the 75 games played between the teams.
Oklahoma won its 12th straight in the series, moved to 12-0 under Stoops in the game following Texas and extended the nation's longest home winning streak to 34.
"They are dang good at what they do," ISU coach Paul Rhoads told reporters. "It's as much what they are doing has how they are doing it. They run a very fast tempo, which we knew. They snap the ball in rhythm and had us off balance with a good selection of run and pass."
Meanwhile, Missouri will look to win its 10th straight regular season game tonight for the first time since 1959-60.
Record setters
Oklahoma WR Ryan Broyles broke his own school single-game receptions mark with 15 in the rout over Iowa State. Incredibly, he had tied the record by halftime, when he had 13 catches for 165 of his 182 yards.
The receptions total topped Broyles' 13 from last year's Sun Bowl. The yardage output represented a career high and the fifth-best single-game mark in OU history.
"It almost felt like practice," Broyles said.
"Unbelievable," said a slightly more impressed coach Bob Stoops. "Just watching him on the sideline, it's amazing. He amazes me every weekend."
Meanwhile, Oklahoma RB DeMarco Murray scored three times (twice rushing, once receiving) and now owns the school record with 58 career touchdowns, breaking Steven Owens' 41-year-old mark of 57. Murray also rushed 20 times for 112 yards.
"You talk about a special record," gushed Stoops. "When you look at the history of our great players that we've had, All-Americans and special, special running backs - for him to have that record is really special."
Putting the icing on the cake, QB Landry Jones completed 30 of 34 passes (88.24 percent) to set a school record for completion percentage (25 or more passes).
Watch this
Oklahoma’s sophomore quarterback Jones and Missouri’s junior quarterback Blaine Gabbert are both O’Brien Watch List candidates. As a result, Saturday’s contest was named the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award’s Marquee Matchup this week.
Gabbert is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the Big 12 and has thrown for 1,591 yards, 10 touchdowns and just three interceptions. His main asset is an ability to avoid the sack.
“Gabbert is a good player, no question, and he is a big guy,” Oklahoma defensive ends coach Bobby Jack Wright told the media. “They list him as 6-foot-4 inches and I really don’t know if he’s that big at all, but he’s a hard guy to tackle.
“We certainly hope we can pressure him enough to flush him out and then have somebody right there to take care of him,” Wright said.
Missouri’s offense is a no-huddle, screen-based offense, much like the Sooners, and does not allow a lot of pressure on the quarterback because of the quick nature of its plays.
“Schematically, they are going to get rid of the football, so we’ve got to do some other things a little bit better. We’ve got to do some things up front to help the entire [defensive] package,” Wright said.
When told Gabbert was planning to watch video of the Sooners by cell phone on the way home from College Station, OU LB Travis Lewis responded, "Bring it. They need to watch as much film as they can, because we're coming."
Tiger D’ gets an A
The ESPN Game Day crew will be broadcasting live from Columbia for the first time ever.
"Tigers improved D’ gives them a real chance vs. OU," tweeted ESPN Game Day co-host Chris Fowler. "We always love doing a show at a school for the first time.”
Missouri is second in the nation in points allowed (11.2 per game) and 29th in total defense (329 per game), while OU is 28th in points surrendered (19 per game) and 71st in total defense at 384 per game.
Offensively, the Sooners average slightly more points than MU, 36 to 34.50.
Both teams are disproportionate in yards gained in the air as opposed to on the ground (OU: 303-155; MU: 282-132).
History says
• Oklahoma has dominated Missouri in this series going 65-21-5 overall, including 31-14 in Columbia. The Sooners have won 19 of the last 20 matchups, including 62-21 and 38-17 victories in the two most recent meetings (Big 12 championship wins in 2007 and 2008).
• OU coach Bob Stoops is 19-8 straight up and 15-11-1 against the spread in games versus undefeated opposition. Stoops is 7-0 straight up and 4-3 against the spread in this series.
• The Sooners are 6-13-1 against the spread away versus undefeated foes, including 1-6 as favorites.
• Missouri coach Gary Pinkel is 44-12-1 straight up in his career versus undefeated opponents, including 17-7-1 in conference play (3-1 against the spread as a dog).
• The Tigers are 2-3 straight up and 0-5 against the spread the last three seasons versus unbeaten opponents.
• Since 2000, home underdogs are 15-8-1 against the spread in a battle of undefeated teams when the opponent allows19 or more PPG.
LSU at Auburn Preview
By Brian Edwards
The marquee game of Week 8 will take place on the Plains, where unbeaten Auburn (7-0 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) will play host to undefeated LSU in a crucial SEC showdown with national implications. Most betting shops have installed Gene Chizik’s team as the six-point home favorite with an ‘over/under’ total of 52.
Bettors can take LSU to win outright for a plus-195 payout (risk $100 to win $195).
VI handicapper Bruce Marshall is bullish on the underdog. “I think LSU is worth a strong look here,” said Marshall. “Les Miles’ teams have an incredible knack for hanging in there and keeping games close. I think they are going to be able to contain [Cam] Newton, while Auburn has a ton of issues on defense. Last week’s win over Arkansas reminded me of an Arena League game.”
The War Eagles are coming off a wild 65-43 win over Arkansas as four-point home favorites. Newton enjoyed another spectacular performance to make him the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. He rushed for 188 yards and three touchdowns and also completed 10-of-14 passes for 140 yards and one TD without an interception.
However, the Auburn defense gave up 566 total yards and allowed back-up Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson to throw for more than 300 yards and four TDs in less than three quarters. Making things even more disconcerting for defensive coordinator Ted Roof, the former head coach at Duke, is that Wilson was getting the first significant playing time of his career.
Obviously, Auburn has issues galore on the defensive side of the ball but to date, it has just been able to outscore foes behind Newton’s brilliant play. That’s exactly what happened in a 37-34 win at Kentucky two weeks ago.
But lighting up the scoreboard won’t be nearly as easy against the Bayou Bengals, who lead the SEC in total defense and give up just 14.4 points per game. This unit is led by senior linebacker Kelvin Sheppard, who is second in the SEC in tackles with 66 and also has 2 ½ sacks.
LSU (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS) is coming off a 32-10 home win over McNeese St. as a 41 ½-point ‘chalk.’ Forgive the non-cover from The Hat’s squad as it was in a look-ahead situation and had captured a monster win at The Swamp the previous week.
LSU knocked off Florida by a 33-29 count thanks to Jarrett Lee’s perfectly-lofted TD pass to Terrence Toliver in the corner of the end zone with just six ticks left. The Bayou Bengals collected the outright victory as 6 ½-point underdogs.
LSU is 2-0 both SU and ATS on the road this year, winning 27-3 at Vandy as a 10 ½-point favorite back in Week 2. As a road underdog during Miles’ tenure, LSU is 4-4 ATS.
Auburn has covered the spread in three straight home games and on Chizik’s watch, it is 3-1 ATS as a single-digit home favorite.
LSU has won three in a row in this rivalry, including last year’s 31-10 win as a 7 ½-point home favorite. Jordan Jefferson threw for 242 yards and two TDs without being intercepted. He also ran for a score.
The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for LSU, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 when the Bayou Bengals leave Baton Rouge. The ‘over’ hit in LSU’s season-opening win over North Carolina at the Ga. Dome and also in the win at UF.
The ‘over’ has cashed at a 4-3 overall clip for Auburn, going 3-2 in its home games.
CBS will provide television coverage at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Newton leads the SEC in rushing, passing efficiency and total offense. He has rushed for 860 yards and 12 TDs, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Newton also has 13 TD passes compared to five interceptions.
LSU junior RB Stevan Ridley is enjoying a breakout campaign. He is second in the SEC in rushing with 686 yards and six TDs, averaging 4.9 YPC.
The ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between Auburn and LSU.
The road team has lost in nine of the last 10 Auburn-LSU games.
West Va. has won eight in a row against Syracuse, posting a 6-2 spread record in those eight victories. Seven of those wins have come by double-digit margins.
Factoid of the Week: If Vandy beats South Carolina, it will be in sole possession of first place in the SEC East.
South Carolina star RB Marcus Lattimore will not play against the Commodores after spraining his ankle in last week's loss at Kentucky.
vegasinsider.com
Where The Action is: NCAAF Week 8 Line Moves
The college football season has passed the midway mark and lines are getting sharper and sharper. There aren’t as many dramatic line moves on the Week 8 board, which books attribute to the tougher conference schedules weeding out weaker programs.
“Three weeks ago, teams weren’t battle tested after playing some weak non-conference schedules,” says Michael Perry, an oddsmaker for Sportsbook.com. “Now, with conference play, we have a better idea of who the contenders and pretenders are.”
Perry sat down to talk about the action moving the numbers for this Saturday’s college football games:
Syracuse Orange at West Virginia Mountaineers – Open: -16 Move: -13.5
Syracuse is quickly becoming an ATS sleeper in the Big East, going 4-2 against the spread this season. Bettors are buying the Orange versus the conference’s gatekeeper.
“West Virginia is a pretty good team, but it got lucky against Marshall a few weeks ago and I think they may be overvalued,” says Perry. “Syracuse has a good defense and the opening line just seemed like a lot of points.”
Washington State Cougars at Stanford Cardinal – Open: -34.5 Move: -36.5
There are still key numbers when spreads get this high and books we banking on people playing the Cougars as big dogs. However, the sharp money on the Cardinal has pushed the spread past the key number of 35 (five touchdowns).
“I think the original line should have been 35,” says Perry. “Washington State hasn’t turned that corner yet and is the worst team in the Pac-10. (Stanford coach) Jim Harbaugh is a non-nonsense coach and doesn’t have a problem putting it on the weaker teams.”
Maryland Terrapins at Boston College Eagles – Open: -5.5 Move: -4
This ACC Atlantic showdown won’t steal headlines away from the Top 25 matchups on the Week 8 board but it seems to have stumped oddsmakers, who set this spread around five points.
“Five points - that’s a dead number,” says Perry. “This move is just a matter of two bad teams playing each other and in that case, you might as well go for the win and take the points. People are liking the dog.”
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Colorado Buffaloes – Open: Pick Move: +3
Texas Tech is coming off a loss to Oklahoma State and has a nice rivalry with Texas A&M coming up, so books discounted the Red Raiders and set this spread as a pick’em in Colorado Saturday. That number has moved to a field goal in favor of the visitor.
“This move is pure public,” says Perry. “Nearly 85 percent of the bets, about five of every six dollars, is on the Red Raiders. Not a lot of sharp action, just a lot of public money.”
Connecticut Huskies at Louisville Cardinals – Open: +1 Move: -2.5
The Cardinals have moved from 1-point pups to 2.5-point favorites, getting very close to the key number of three. However, Perry doesn’t see this spread climbing to a field goal before kickoff.
“I know we won’t be going to -3,” he says. “About 84 percent of the action on this game is on UL and we’ve already been very liberal with the line move. Connecticut has been a very Jekyll-and-Hyde team this year, you don’t know what you’re going to get from them.”
Wyoming Cowboys at BYU Cougars - Open: -9 Move: -11
This Mountain West matchup hasn’t seen a ton of action, according to Perry, but it has caught the attention of one betting syndicate which hit the Cougars at -9, taking BYU under the key number of 10.
“The action is actually pretty split, with 55 percent on Wyoming,” says Perry. “This (move) is just one big bet from a sharp or syndicate that we had to adjust to.”