Game of the day: Texas at Missouri
By Nick Parsons
Last week the No. 3 Texas Longhorns beat their marquee rivals Oklahoma 16-13 in the Red River Shootout, but as Texas head coach Mack Brown stated, "Oklahoma means nothing unless you finish it right".
Regardless of opponent, each week now serves as a national title elimination game for the Longhorns and this Saturday they will be featured on prime time on the road against Missouri (8 p.m. ET ABC Regional Coverage).
When Texas has the ball
Statistically, Colt McCoy has seen a bit of drop off from last year but the Longhorns are first in the nation in points scored at 42 per game and they have yet to lose a game. Still for an elite team, one can't ignore the offensive struggles in their last two games.
In their 38-14 victory over Colorado, most of the points came from defense and special teams. The offense only generating two touchdowns. Texas was down 14-10 in the third until a blocked punt return for a TD changed momentum.
Last week, they faced a tough Sooner defense and only got into the end zone once. Texas gets a bit of a break this week but the backfield will have to find a way to avoid All-Big 12 LB Sean Weatherspoon, who is averaging 8.33 tackles per game. However he has seemed to be the only bright spot in this underachieving defense.
With an inexperienced unit, Missouri has cut down on blitzes this year but it may have to change things against Texas. The defense has only given up 20.3 points per game but they have yet to face an offense with as many weapons as Texas.
McCoy is hampered a bit by an injured thumb but he won't have to do it alone, unfortunately for Missouri, Weatherspoon will.
When Missouri has the ball
The season began with a lot of pressure around sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert, who had the tough task of replacing Chase Daniel. Gabbert started the season well, throwing 11 TDs without an interception in his first four games.
But things got tougher in Big 12 play. In the last two games against Nebraska and Oklahoma State, the first-year starter threw five interceptions and only passed for one touchdown.
Head coach Gary Pinkel took the blame off his QB, stating that they should have ran the ball more against Oklahoma State. Down 24-17 at the half against the Cowboys, Missouri failed to generate a single point in the second half. The playcalling focused too much on the air attack.
Look for the Tigers to balance out their playcalling this Saturday and give their running backs more carries.
Regardless of gameplan, Missouri's key will be to isolate the impact of Sergio Kindle, who rotates on the line on both the strong and weak sides. This tough task will be placed upon sophomore tackles Dan Hoch and Elvis Fisher. Hoch, at 6-foot-7 and 315 pounds, was a high-profile recruit and Fisher, 6-foot-5 and 300 pounds, was first team All-Frosh last year.
The odds and weather
The spread for this Saturday's tilt opened at 14 in favor of the Longhorns and now sits between 12 and 13 at most books.
History shows that Texas comes out strong after their Oklahoma game, both straight up and against the spread. In the last four years, the Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their post Red River Shootout game, covering the spread by an average of 18.25 points.
Texas, however, has struggled this year with the line going 1-4-1 ATS with its only cover coming against UTEP
Missouri started the season at 4-0 but lost its last two games, both against Big-12 opponents. The Tigers are 3-3 ATS but this is the first time this year that they have been double-digit underdogs.
In last year's matchup, both teams were ranked and the Longhorns were favored by four points. Texas easily covered the spread by jumping out to a 35-0 lead and winning 56-31.
The total for the game is at 50.5. Five of Missouri's six games have gone under the total, while Texas games have gone under four times in six contests. Last year's total was at 63.5 and it easily went over with 87 points being scored.
It's homecoming at Missouri and last year the Tigers won their homecoming game against Colorado 58-0. Obviously don't expect the same result against Texas.
A low of 46 is expected by kickoff with a zero percent chance of rain. Winds will blowing southwest at approximately 11 mph.
What Bettors Need to Know: TCU at BYU
By DAVID JONES
In the lone Top 25 matchup on Saturday's slate, eighth-ranked TCU will put their unbeaten record on the line against 16th-ranked BYU in Provo. The Horned Frogs hopes of being a BCS buster could be dashed on the road in this marquee Mountain West Conference showdown.
TCU
The Horned Frogs (6-0, 3-3 ATS) have used a pair of stout rush units to enter the weekend as one of the seven remaining undefeated squads in college football.
TCU is 11th in the nation in rushing offense while ranking 16th in the country in scoring offense. The Horned Frogs have a balanced ground game. Four players have rushed for at least 200 yards this season. Senior Joseph Turner leads the way with 399 yards and seven touchdowns. Versatile quarterback Andy Dalton has rushed for 233 yards and fired eight touchdown passes for the club.
The defense is ranked in the top 10 nationally in total, scoring, rushing and passing defense. Defensive lineman Jerry Hughes continues to disrupt foes on the front line for TCU. He leads the conference in sacks with eight after recording 15 sacks a year ago.
BYU
BYU (6-1, 4-3 ATS) is seeking redemption from their lone defeat of the season Saturday. The Cougars were in an ideal position to be a BCS team after their opening victory over Oklahoma but the club crashed and burned in a humbling setback against Florida State in Provo.
While TCU will look to move the ball on the ground, the Cougars will strike with a more balanced attack. Senior quarterback Max Hall directs an offense that is in the top seven nationally in total and scoring offense. He has passed for 16 touchdowns in 2009 but has also been picked off ten times. After being limited to only three carries in the first two games of the season due to an injury, Harvey Unga has stepped up to lead the conference in rushing with 575 yards. He is seeking his third straight 1,000 yard rushing campaign.
The defense is a respectable 48th in the country in total defense but is clearly a notch or two behind TCU's stop unit.
Cougars seeking revenge
The roles were reversed a year ago in Fort Worth when the undefeated, ninth-ranked Cougars were overwhelmed by TCU in a 32-7 loss. The Horned Frogs out rushed BYU 240-23 in the win. The defense forced four turnovers and sacked Hall six times.
BYU's QB feels that he has made some adjustments since last year's debacle.
"We had a lot of downfield, longer throws, where I was trying to launch the ball too long, and they were able to get to me," Hall told reporters. "This year, we have done a really good job of getting the ball out of my hands quick, and doing smart, efficient things down the field, and then taking shots every once in a while."
Trends
BYU leads the all-time series 5-3 with a 3-1 record at home. The two clubs have split their four meetings since TCU joined the conference in 2005. BYU has won 13 straight MWC games at home dating back to 2005. TCU is 20-2 (13-8 ATS) in its last 22 games while BYU has posted a record of 26-4 in its last 30 outings.
Weather
The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies with a high of 60 degrees in Provo, UT.
NCAAF Week 8
Top games
Home side won 10 of last 12 Georgia Tech-Virginia games; Tech lost last six visits to UVa, despite being favored in three of them. Cavaliers won last three games after 0-3 start, allowing 3-7-9 points; they held Jackets to 156 rushing yards in LY's 24-17 upset win in Atlanta (+14). Home underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in ACC conference play. Tech won its last four games (4-0 vs spread) scoring an average of 35.8 ppg.
Miami is 3-0 at home in '09, beating Ga Tech (33-17), Oklahoma (21-20) 'canes covered two of their last nine as home favorite. Erratic Clemson is 0-2 on road this year, losing both games by FG at Ga Tech (30-27) and Maryland (24-21). Tigers held four of six foes under 50% passing, but are 14 of last 43 on third down- they came off bye last week and waxed Wake Forest, 38-3. Last four Clemson games stayed under the total.
Pitt split its six games with South Florida, visitor winning four of the six. Road team won Daniels' first three starts as USF QB, with Bulls winning at Florida State (17-7), Syracuse (34-20). Pitt is 4-2 as favorite this year; they scored 35-24-24 points in winning last three weeks. Senior QB vs freshman QB, advantage Panthers. Four of the last five Pitt games stayed under the total. Bulls are 1-1 as an underdog this season.
Starting CB for UConn was murdered outside party week ago; this is the first game for Huskies since then, against West Virginia team that they're 0-5 against, losing by average score of 43-15. Mountaineers won four of five vs I-A foes, despite turning ball over 17 times in the five contests. UConn won three of last four games, is 5-1 vs spread in last six, 3-0 as an underdog this season. Big East home teams are 1-7 vs spread in '09.
Boston College has been hideous on road, losing 25-7 at Clemson (+6), 48-14 at Va Tech (+14); they combined to complete 16 of 49 passes for paltry 143 yards in those two games, but they've beaten Notre Dame six times in row, winning three in row and four of last five in South Bend. Irish are 1-4 as favorite this year; only one of their four wins (Nevada) is by more than seven points. Last four BC games went over the total.
Washington plays close games, but let one get away in desert last week, as ASU hit 50-yard pass with 0:13 left when Huskies could have run it and not given ball back to ASU in last 0:25- their last three games came down to last couple minutes. U-Dub is 4-2 as dog this year, 0-5 in last five games of series; home side is 7-2 vs the spread in this bitter rivalry. Oregon won its last five games, scoring 37.2 ppg, covered last four.
Penn State covered five of last six as road favorite, but lost nine of last 10 to Michigan, losing last five visits here, last three all by five points or less. Lions' only previous road game was 35-17 win at crumbling Illinois (-7)- they've outscored I-A foes 96-11 in first half of games this season. Wolverines lost last two vs I-A foes, 26-20 in OT at East Lansing (+2), 30-28 at Iowa (+8). Big 11 home underdogs are 2-4 against the spread.
Oklahoma is 3-3 and Bradford is probably done for year; their losses are by combined total of five points. Sooners won last five games vs Kansas all by 14+ points. Jayhawks scored 30+ points in every game this year, but gave up 28-36-34 in last three games to Southern Miss, Iowa St and Colorado, not exactly the strongest opposition. Under is 5-0 in Sooner games this year, but last four Jayhawk games all went over.
Texas QB McCoy has bruised right thumb, will play here vs Missouri team that was outscored 39-3 in second half of last two games, dropping both games after 4-0 start. Longhorns won last two visits to Columbia, 51-20/35-16; they've got 12 takeaways in last three games (+4) but have been behind at half in last two. Last week's rivalry win over Oklahoma was very physical game. Mizzou is 3-2 as home underdog since 2003.
Visitor covered seven of last eight Wake Forest-Navy games, with Wake winning/covering last five visits here; Middies upset Wake as 16-pt dogs LY, 24-17; four of Wake's previous five series wins were all by 10+ pts. Navy won its last four games, scoring 38.8 ppg; two of their last three wins were by three points each. Last three Navy opponents are 7-37 on third down. ACC underdogs are 5-4 vs spread out of conference.
Idaho is 6-1, bowl eligible after winning total of three games last couple years; they're 7-0 vs spread, still 15-point dog to Nevada team that won last three games but was life-and-death to win 35-32 at Utah State last week. Wolf Pack won six of last seven series games, with all six wins by 16+ points. Vandals are 6-1 despite being underdog in six of their seven games- their only loss was 42-23 at much-improved Washington (+20).
Arkansas won six of last eight vs Ole Miss, covering last five, but Rebels nipped Arkansas 23-21 LY in Nutt's first season in Oxford, Ole Miss is 4-2, but beat four stiffs, scored 10-3 points in only two losses, to Bama, South Carolina. Rebels covered six of last eight as a home favorite. SEC home favorites are 3-11 vs spread in conference play. Arkansas doesn't have an INT in last four games, but recovered nine fumbles in last three.
7-0 Iowa is having magical season, winning three games by three or less points- they're 3-0 on road, outscoring teams 54-0 in second half of their road games (Iowa St/Penn St/Wisconsin, all teams with winning records). Home side won last eight series games; Iowa lost last four visits here by 46-3-10-3 points. Michigan State won last three games after its 1-3 start, scoring 26-24-24 points. Big 11 home teams are 8-11 against the spread.
BYU is 3-2 against TCU with dogs covering three of last four; Frogs got 32-7 home win LY, but lost two of three visits here. TCU is 3-0 on road this year, routing Virginia 30-14, edging Clemson 14-10, Air Force 20-17 they've allowed total of 47 points in last four games. BYU won four in a row, scoring 43.5 ppg, since 54-28 home loss to Florida State. Home side is 7-4 vs spread in Mountain West Conference games so far this season.
Auburn lost last two games, allowing 221-284 rushing yards after a 5-0 start; their last five games vs LSU were all decided by six points or less, with LSU winning last two, 26-21/30-24. LSU is off bye after 13-3 loss to Florida- they rank 105th (out of 120) in passing yardage, so look for Jefferson to throw some early. Auburn is playing 8th week in a row, so edge for LSU there. Auburn is 11-6 as a road underdog since 2002.
Other games
-- UAB lost three of last four games; they're 0-3 as road dog this season, losing road games by 13-37-35 points. Last five Marshall games stayed under the total. C-USA home teams are 8-10 vs spread in league play.
-- Akron lost its last four games (1-3 vs spread) by 17-27-12-4 points. Syracuse is favored for the first time this year- they lost last two games, giving up 34-34 points. MAC road underdogs are 14-7 vs spread.
-- Maryland won five in row, seven of last eight vs Duke, winning both times Duke was favored; Blue Devils are 2-1 as home favorites since '04. Maryland is 1-5 vs I-A teams, with four losses by 10+ points.
-- Illinois is a mess, losing last four games by combined score of 116-45. Purdue had lost five in row before upsetting Ohio State last week. Four of five Illini games stayed under total. Big 11 home favorites are 6-7.
-- Central Michigan won six in row since 16-3 loss in opener at Arizona; Chippewas covered just one of last five as road favorite, but their last five wins are all by 7+ points. Bowling Green scored 37-36-31 points in its last three games (1-4 vs spread in last five).
-- Indiana lost last four visits to Northwestern, allowing 38.8 ppg; they snapped 3-game skid last week beating hapless Illinois 27-14. Dogs are 5-1 vs spread in last six series games. Wildcats are 0-3 as favorite in '09.
-- Ohio State covered four of last five as favorite, but got upset last week 26-18 at Purdue. Minnesota is 6-3 as road underdog under Brewster. Under is 5-0-1 in last six OSU games, 1-4 in last five Gopher contests.
-- Vanderbilt covered five of last seven vs South Carolina, upsetting the Gamecocks last two years; Commodores lost five of last six games; they scored 13 or less points in all five losses. Underdog is 5-1 vs spread in Gamecock games this year.
-- Nebraska may change QBs after getting drilled by Texas Tech; they've been outscored 33-3 in first half of last two games. Iowa State lost last six visits to Lincoln, covering just one of the six losses.
-- Winless Ball State is road favorite; go figure. Cardinals won three of last four visits to Ypsilanti. Eastern Michigan is 0-6 with five losses by 12+ points. MAC home dogs are just 2-6 vs spread.
-- Miami O is already -20 in turnovers, which explains their 0-7 record (2-5 vs spread). Northern Illinois is just 3-3 despite +10 turnover ratio. Five of seven Miami games, four of five NIU tilts stayed under total.
-- Oklahoma State won its only road game 36-31 at Texas A&M (-5.5); favorites covered their last five games vs Baylor. Bears lost first couple Big 12 games 33-7/24-10, throwing five INTs with their backup QBs.
-- Ohio U won five of last six games, covered last four, holding last two opponents to 7 points each (+6 in turnovers). Kent State covered their last four games. MAC home favorites are 7-3 against the spread.
-- Western Michigan is 4-0 vs Buffalo, with three of wins by 10+ pts; Broncos allowed 32.7 ppg in last three games. Favorite is 5-1 in their '09 games. Buffalo is 2-3 vs spread as an underdog this year.
-- Louisiana Tech is 0-3 on road, losing 24-18-23 points. Utah State lost last two games by three points each. Tech is 4-0 vs Utah State, winning both visits to Logan by ten points each.
-- Alabama held four of last five foes to seven or less points; they've run ball for 200+ yards in six of seven games. Tide beat Tennessee last two years 29-9/41-17; underdog is 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games.
-- Texas A&M lost last three games, giving up 47-36-62 points; they've lost last four games vs Texas Tech by average score of 41-19. Tech won at Nebraska last week, their third win in row, scoring 48.3 ppg.
-- San Diego State is just 2-4 but covered last three games- they scored 20+ points in four of last five. Colorado State lost last four games (1-3 vs spread). Rams are 20-31 vs spread as a favorite in this decade.
-- Air Force is just 4-3 despite a +17 turnover ratio; they scored total of 40 points last three games. Utah is 5-1 this year but just 2-3 as favorite; underdog covered eight of last nine series games.
-- Foles' first three starts as Arizona QB were decided by 5-3-5 points; home side won four of Wildcats'last five games vs UCLA, with Bruins losing last two visits to Tucson, 34-27/52-14. Pac-10 home faves: 5-4.
-- Washington State is still bad, but they haven't gotten killed as often in '09, with losses by 26-18-21-46-13 points (3-3 vs spread). Cal crushed UCLA last week 45-26; they're 3-1 as a favorite this season.
-- Temple won its last four games, allowing 14.3 ppg. Toledo won three of its last four games; last week was first time in seven games they gave up less than 30 points. MAC home favorites are 7-3 vs spread.
-- Cincinnati QB Pike doubtful after wrist surgery this week; Bearcats beat Louisville LY for just second time in last 11 games. Favorite covered nine of last 12 series games. Cardinals are 2-3 as an underdog this year.
-- Southern Miss is just 1-4 as favorite this year. C-USA home teams are 8-10 vs spread, 4-5 as home favorites. Last three games for both sides stayed under total. Tulane lost last two games by 21-28 points.
-- Rice is 0-7 (1-6 vs spread) with no losses by less than 17 points; they were outscored 92-17 on second half of last four games. UCF lost 27-7 in emotional home game with Miami last week. Under is 4-0-1 in UCF's last five games.
-- Colorado switched QBs last week, upset Kansas 34-30; Buffs are 3-0 vs spread as underdog this season. K-State is hard to gauge; they led last week 38-0 at half, after trailing 38-0 at half in previous game.
-- Miss State coach Mullen was long-time Meyer aide; his Bulldogs are 0-3 at home vs I-A teams, but losses are by 4-11-7 points. Gators have injury issues on OL, scoring total of 36 points in last two games.
-- Houston is scoring 38 ppg vs I-A foes; this is its first home game since Texas Tech upset. SMU is 4-1 vs spread in last five games, only one of which was decided by more than seven points.
-- Fresno State scored 42-41 points in winning last two games; they are 4-1 vs spread in '09, 2-0 as favorite. New Mexico State is 3-4, but all of the losses are by 15+ points. WAC favorites are 7-4, 2-2 on road.
-- New Mexico is winless; its head coach is suspended for this game due to a few screw-ups. Lobos are 1-5 vs spread, 0-2 as home dog. UNLV is road favorite despite losing last four games by average score of 47-23.
-- USC had emotional win in South Bend last week, has big game a week from now at Oregon; they're 1-4 vs spread in last five games. Oregon St. won last two games, is off a bye. Pac-10 home favorites are 5-4 against the spread. Four of last five USC games stayed under.
-- Stanford is 3-0 at home, winning by 25-20-8 points; Cardinal lost last three games vs Arizona State, 38-3/41-3/41-17. Sun Devils are 2-6-1 as underdog under Erickson. Under is 3-0-1 in ASU's last four games.
-- Boise State is 4-1 as favorite this year, with three road wins, by 17-7- 35 points; Broncos are 6-2 vs spread in last eight games as road favorite. Hawai'i lost last four games with starting QB Alexander out for year.
-- Florida Atlantic got first win 44-40 last week, they won three of four vs ULL, winning last two meetings, 40-29/39-32. Cajuns scored 38-30 points in winning last two games. Sun Belt home favorites are 3-4.
-- Florida Int'l scored 31-35-37-33 points in last four games and was 1-3 in the four; they're 3-2 as dog this year. Arkansas State lost three in row by total of 12 points- they're 7-9 in last 16 games as home favorite.
-- 3-3 Kentucky had great win at Auburn last week, only one of its three wins is by more than seven points. SEC home faves are 8-7 vs spread out of conference. Sun Belt road underdogs are 6-10.
-- Western Kentucky is terrible, losing away games 63-7/38-22; they're 2-4 vs spread this year, 0-6 SU. Sun Belt home favorites are 5-2 against the spread. Middle Tennessee is 2-0 as a favorite this season.
Tips and Trends
TCU at BYU
TCU (-2.5, O/U 51.5): The 10th-ranked Horned Frogs rely on a dominant defense and balanced offense as they go for a ninth straight victory. TCU has held 17 of its past 18 opponents to 18 points or less. The Horned Frogs rate fourth in the nation in total defense. They are yielding just 81.2 yards rushing per game. Only three touchdowns on the ground have been scored against the 6-0 Horned Frogs. All-American defensive end Jerry Hughes has eight sacks. He sacked BYU quarterback Max Hall four times during last year’s 32-7 TCU victory over the Cougars. Hall was sacked seven times in that defeat and had two passes picked off. TCU quarterback Andy Dalton is 17-2 as a starter since last season. The Horned Frogs are averaging 33.8 points per game, 16th-best in the nation. Jeremy Kerley has returned two punts for touchdowns in the last three games.
The Horned Frogs are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 Mountain West Conference games.
TCU is 27-13 ATS the past 40 times it has been favored.
Key Injuries - Running back Ryan Christian is questionable.
Defensive end Ross Forrest (arm) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 27
BYU: The 16th-ranked Cougars have won a record 13 straight Mountain West Conference home games. They have won 23 of their last 25 home contests. BYU will attack TCU’s highly-rated defense with star quarterback Max Hall and running back Harvey Unga, who has scored at least one touchdown in each of his past five games while averaging 95.8 yards rushing per game. Unga rushed for two touchdowns when the Cougars beat TCU at home two years ago, 27-22. The key will be how BYU’s big but slow offensive line handles the Horned Frogs. Hall is connecting on 70 percent of his throws, but has thrown 10 interceptions. The Cougars are 9-3 against the spread in conference revenge situations and have gained a season-high in yards versus four of their last seven opponents. BYU, though, has failed to cover seven of its last eight games in October.
The Over has cashed 13 of the last 19 times BYU has met a team with a winning record.
BYU has gone Over in its last 5 Mountain West games.
Key Injuries - Wide receiver McKay Jacobson (hamstring) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 25 (OVER - Total of the Day)