NCAAF News and Notes Saturday 10/31

Beware of Let Downs - Week 9
By Judd Hall

Close calls were the order of the day last Saturday in college football as three of the teams in the Top 10 had brushes with defeat. Iowa needed a last second touchdown to get by the Spartans. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide needed a late field goal block to hold for a win against Tennessee at home. Those matches have yielded us some attractive fade possibilities to play this weekend.

Volunteering to lose…

Of all the games this weekend that an underdog had a chance to win outright, Tennessee’s 12-10 road loss to the Crimson Tide was the toughest to swallow. The Vols suffered blocks on their last two field goal attempts, which went a long way to helping Alabama stay perfect. It also gave Lane Kiffin a little more credit for keeping his team in it until the end against top-tier SEC talent.

The close loss did help the Volunteers get love in the betting shops this weekend by listing them as five-point home favorites against South Carolina.

You’re not alone if you think this line is a bit bigger than it should be for the Vols. The Gamecocks have shown themselves to also hold up against the big boys of the conference. South Carolina fell to the Tide 20-6 two weeks back. That score, however, doesn’t really show how close the game was between Steve Spurrier and Nick Saban.

Tennessee hasn’t wowed anyone in its wins in Knoxville this season. I mean, this is a team that fell to UCLA and Auburn – two programs that are middle-of-the-pack, at best.

South Carolina is a beast defensively, ranking 14th in the nation by allowing just 288.9 yards per game this season. They’re also 21st in scoring defense, giving up 17.5 points per game.

Another thing to keep in mind is the road team has covered the spread in nine of the last 12 meetings of these two schools.

Hawkeyes spent…

There are 60 minutes in a game of college football, and Iowa needed 59 minutes, 58 seconds to pick up its 15-13 win on the road against the Spartans. Ricky Stanzi wasn’t all that great, connecting on 11 of his 27 passes for 138 yards. But he picked up 93 of those yards and his lone touchdown in the Hawkeyes’ final two drives of the game.

The sportsbooks aren’t too worried about the Hawkeyes suffering a let down against Indiana by making them 17½-point home favorites.

The Hoosiers are also in a spot where they could be a good fade after squandering a 25-point lead to lose at Northwestern as 5 ½-point road pups, 29-28. Ben Chappell started the game hot by completing eight of his first nine passes. After that, however, Chappell connected on eight of his last 18 passes during the tilt.

One thing that I can say about this Indiana side is that it isn’t the abomination that we used to see during the 90s and early 2000s. This club should already bowl eligible this season when you think they could have easily won at Michigan and last week in Evanston. Plus, keep in mind that the Hoosiers have covered two of the last three meetings.

Cyclone of despair…

There have some pretty lean years recently for the Cyclones, but things appear to be looking up under Paul Rhoads. Iowa State’s 9-7 road win against the Cornhuskers is no doubt the first signature win for its new head coach.

That win fell on deaf ears in Las Vegas as the betting shops have made the Aggies seven-point home favorites against Iowa State this Saturday.

It would be easy to say that the Cyclones can claim bowl eligibility against a team that got drilled for 62 points by Kansas State. However, Texas A&M just knocked the Red Raiders around for a 52-30 win as a 21½-point road pup.

Before you decide to place your money on Iowa State to cover, just remember that the Aggies are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread. Don’t be shocked if Texas A&M comes up with another cover in this spot.

vegasinsider.com

News & Notes for Week 8
By Phil Steele

Virginia had 4 trips into Georgia Tech territory result in 4 FG attempts and they missed one so they had just 9 points. A key play in the game happened when UVA settled for a 30 yd FG after a 1st & gl at the 6 to trail by 11 then stopped GT on 3rd & 7. The Cavs were going to get the ball back but a late pers foul call gave GT a FD and UVA’s tired D allowed GT to go 66/11pl and 71/10pl for a pair of TD’s to ice it. It was GT’s first win in Charlottesville since 1990 when they upset #1 ranked Virginia who was led by Shawn and Herman Moore. GT finished with a 42:43-17:17 TOP edge…

Illinois lost their 6th game of the year and all 6 losses have been by double digits although they had some opportunities last week. With the score tied at 7 they had a FD at the Purdue29 but were intercepted at the 12. Late 1H, trailing 21-7 they had a 1st & gl at the 2. They had a TD wiped out by a pen then missed a 23 yd FG…

Pitt is 7-1 for the first time since 1982 when Dan Marino was the QB of a Pitt team that was ranked #1. Dion Lewis, who came in #3 in the nation in rushing, was held to 111 yards but only because Pitt went up 34-7 and he and starting QB Bill Stull were pulled on the 3rd series of the 3Q…

Baylor is now 0-3 in the Big 12 and has scored 24 points in its Big 12 games as they have not recovered from losing QB Robert Griffin a month ago to injury. Zac Robinson hit 23 of 27 passes and his 85% completion rate was the best ever for an Oklahoma St QB with at least 20 pass attempts breaking Coach Mike Gundy’s record of 75% vs Kansas in 1989…

Ole Miss had a dominating win over Arkansas as they had 31-13 FD and 553-299 yd edges. Three turnovers and a key play kept Arkansas in the game through most of it. UM led 17-0 before allowing Ark a TD late 1H. It could have been worse but they fumbled at the Ark26. An int set up Ark for a 43 yd FG, 17-10. UM got a 64 yd TD run but Ark threw a pass up for grabs that bounced off one receiver, was caught down field by another and turned into a 58 yd TD and they only trailed 24-17. UM went on a 12 play drive settling for a 39 yd FG and then a 14 play drive settling for a 19 yd FG, 30-17 (4:13). UM took their final drive to the Ark19 where they took a knee…

Ohio St only led Minnesota 7-0 at the half so the 38-7 score is a little surprising. Turnovers in the 2H by UM hurt them as they fumbled the opening KO setting up a 31 yd TD drive by OSU. After another fumble, OSU drove 22 yds for a TD to lead 21-0. They got a 57 yd TD pass then after an int drove 55 yards for a TD to lead 35-0. Trailing 38-0 UM brought in backup QB Gray and went 78/7pl for a garbage TD wit4:15 left…

Since Kansas St was shredded for 739 yards by Texas Tech, they have outscored foes 58-6 in the 1H of the last 2 games. The stats are a little misleading in the K-St/Colorado game as KSU finished with a 284-244 yd edge but CU took over with 6:36 left at their own 4 and would drive 94/16pl before being intercepted in the EZ with 3:05 left…

Despite the 56 combined points, Ball St only had a 19-12 FD edge vs E Michigan. Ball St had amazing rushing numbers as Lewis rushed 26 times for 301 yards and Sykes 23 for 203. BSU hit just 2 of 10 passes for 1 yard. BSU actually trailed 27-13 in the 3Q but got a TD, blocked a punt for a safety and scored another TD after the free kick to lead 29-27 after 3Q’s. EM did not cross midfield on their final 4 drives with BSU ending the game on a 22 yd run to the EM27. It was just the 4th time in NCAA history that 2 backs on the same team topped 200 yards in the same game…

Brian Kelly, the coach at Cincinnati is the hottest coaching prospect out there. At this point, he’s bordering on genius. Last year UC won the Big East Title despite using 4 different QB’s. This year he had one of the hottest QB’s in the country in Tony Pike. Pike went down to injury so he plugged in Zach Collaros. Collaros simply hit 15 of 17 passes for 253 yards while rushing for 52 vs Louisville. UC had TD drives of 78, 90 and 80 yards on their first 4 poss with their other drive being SOD at the UL39. They led 21-7 at the half with a 299-97 yd edge and despite the backup QB, rolled to a 41-10 win…

Connecticut played with great emotion as teammate Jasper Howard was stabbed to death after the Louisville game. UC had a 501-387 yd edge vs W Virginia and outplayed them for most of the game. They gave up a KR TD to open the game but still led 17-14 at the half. In the 2H UC missed FG’s of 27 and 45 yards, fumbled at the WV34 and was intercepted at the WV37. UC led 24-21 after an 88 yd TD pass with 3:50 left but WV got a 56 yd TD run by Devine with 2:10 left. UC dropped a 2nd & 21 FD pass at the WV18 and then was int’d at the 27 on their last drive…

Duke never trailed Maryland and had a 394-249 yd edge and they got consecutive ACC victories for the first time since 1994. Duke led 17-6 before allowing a 3rd & 18, 67 yd TD pass. Duke fumbled at the MD1 with 9:40 left and MD forced a punt with 1:41 left but fmbl’d the punt at their own 21…

Oklahoma led Kansas 14-6 at the half with a key play being a 90 yd IR TD but the Sooners led 35-6 mid-4Q when they fumbled and KU drove 54 yds for a garbage TD to make it 35-13 with 4:27 left…

Kent St held Ohio to -9 yards rushing, 164 yards offense and tallied 7 sacks, 15 tfl, 3 interceptions and did not allow an offensive TD for the 2nd straight game. Kent St finished with 21-11 FD and 369-169 yd edges and led 20-3 before OU got an 87 yd PR TD with 2:18 left…

Cal jumped out to a 21-0 lead over Washington St, but the surprising stat of the game was that at the half, due to 78 and 75 yd WSU TD drives after trailing 35-3, it was 35-17 Cal but with only a 314-294 yd edge. For the game, Cal allowed 440 yards which was the 4th straight game Cal has allowed 400+. WSU was SOD at the Cal18 with 5:17 left and Cal got to the WSU22 at the end…

Utah St/Louisiana Tech was the tale of 2 halves. In the 1H USU had 10-2 FD and 245-66 yd edges and LT’s only score was on a 100 yd KR TD as the Aggies led 20-7. It was 23-7 after 3Q’s but LT went 66/8pl for a TD after converting on 3rd & 16 and then on 3rd & gl from the 20 got a 20 yd TD pass with 6:15 left but missed the 2 point conversion. LT got to the 50 but on 4th & 3 was SOD…

Penn St had a 19-10 lead at the half and increased it to 32-10. PSU took over with :31 left 3Q and went on a monster 68/18pl drive, with the key play being a roughing the punter on 4th & 22 but they settled for a 29 yd FG with 5:25 left. UM gained 61 yards on the game’s final 14 plays but was intercepted at the 3…

Folks were complaining that Texas did not have any big wins but they dominated Missouri. QB Gabbert was still not 100% for the Tigers and hit just 8 of 16 for 84 yards and re-injured his ankle on the 2nd drive of the 2H. UT led MO 35-3 at the half last year in Austin and this year it was 35-7 at the half with a 285-102 yd edge. Colt McCoy hit his first 9 passes and UT had 3 long drives all for TD’s to open a 21-0 1Q…

Florida Atlantic rolled up a school record 624 yards in their win over Louisiana. The game was actually as close as 34-29 with 3:12 left 3Q but FA scored on their next 3 poss to blow it open to a 51-29 win and held UL to 372 yards…

TCU stepped up in National Title contention as they had a dominating win over BYU. It was 21-7 at the half when BYU was intercepted and TCU got a roughing the QB call for a FD and on their next drive on 3rd & 8 had an incomplete pass ruled pass interference and got a 75 yd TD on the next play. TCU had a very impressive performance winning at a tough site…

The Tennessee/Alabama game could be painted in a couple different fashions. UT did miss a 47 yd FG before the half and in the 4Q had a 43 yd FG blocked by DL Cody. At the game’s end, Cody blocked a 44 yd FG that was dead set in the middle of the field and UT came up 2 pts short. UA Coach Saban said that the Tide was in control, up 12-3 and had the ball with 3:30 to go with a FD and those statements are correct with UT having just 1 time-out left. Heisman candidate Mark Ingram got his first ever fumble in a Bama uniform on that next play and UT got a TD then rec’d the onside kick setting up the late game dramatics…

New Mexico suspended Coach Locksley the week prior to the game and UNLV dominated with 29-19 FD and 423-287 yd edges finally ending their school record 20 game losing streak in conference road games. The score could have been worse as UNLV missed a 44 yd FG in the 2Q and settled for a 33 yd FG in the 3Q and missed a 38 yd FG in the 3Q, all after long drives but they ended the game at the NM5 yd line taking a knee, up by 17…

Tim Tebow had suffered 1 interception returned for a TD in his career but his old coordinator, Dan Mullen (now HC at Miss St) had the Bulldogs get two, including a 100 yd interception returned for a TD with just :27 left in the half which got Mississippi St back in it at 13-10. UF had troubles in the redzone as they missed a 37 yd FG and settled for FG’s from the 4, 4 and 10 yd lines. Miss St was actually tied at 13 with 9:32 left in the 3Q. UF did get one break when they got a 23 yd IR by Doe to break it open. It appeared Doe put the ball out and it was swatted away by a Miss St defender prior to getting into the endzone but it was still ruled a TD. UF did have a 376-237 yd edge.

HAVE YOU EVER TRIED COMPARISON SCORES? – Well try this one on for size. Two weeks ago Texas Tech beat Kansas St 66-14 with a 739-284 yd edge at home. The next week that same KSU team played Texas A&M. KSU thrashed A&M 62-14 in a game they led 59-0 in the 3Q. Now, A&M who lost by 48 to KSU had to travel to TT, who beat that same KSU team by 52. As you would expect, the final score was 52-30. As you would not expect, A&M was the winning team as they led 28-14 at the half and scored on their first poss of the 3Q and never looked back.

BIG COMEBACKS – Indiana led Northwestern 28-3 with 7:32 left in the half. They gave up a TD with 4:07 left in the half and then punted with 2:19 left and NU went 84/10pl getting a 4 yd TD pass with :07 left in the half to pull within 28-17. NU battled back to 28-26 with 12:33 left in the game and they were intercepted at the IU38 with 10:15 left but then went on a 63/13pl drive for a 19 yd FG with :21 left. IU had a 59 yd FG come up just short on the last play.

INJURIES OF NOTE – Navy played Wake Forest without their starting QB Ricky Dobbs. Backup Kriss Proctor rushed 23 times for 89 yards and his 40 yard TD run in the 3Q put Navy up 13-3. Navy also fumbled at the WF3 late 3Q leading 13-3. Last year Navy became the first team since 1997 to not attempt a single pass in a game when they did that in a victory over SMU. Here they did not attempt a pass again rushing 64 times for 338 yards. Navy took over with 2:38 left, up 13-10 and got a crucial 3rd & 9, 42 yd run down to the 6 and took a knee…North Texas was without starting QB Riley Dodge. Troy led 50-13 after 3Q’s with NT getting 80/4pl and 86/12pl drives for garbage TD’s in the 4Q.

OPPORTUNITIES LOST and MISLEADING FINALS – It’s interesting that if you were following along the N Illinois/Miami, Oh game on the play-by-play, it actually listed the final at 27-16 but then one more play was run and MU got a 24 yd TD pass with no time remaining. The Red Hawks trailed by 11 and the TD made it 27-22 and the xp was not attempted. NI jumped out to a 17-0 1Q lead in the game…

ULM/Kentucky was a lot closer than the final score. ULM had 24-18 FD and 374-372 yd edges but they scored just 2 TD’s on 5 drives inside the 20 yd line. UK got a 72 yd PR for a TD to lead 14-0….ULM had blown opportunities including a 1st & gl at the UK6 but they settled for a FG and a high snap botched the attempt. At the end of the half, they had a FD at the UK3 with :04 left but went for the TD instead of the FG and their pass was incomplete and they ran did not score. ULM went on a 74/13pl drive but missed a 31 yd FG wide left. ULM fumbled into the EZ and rec’d it themselves for a safety and then gave up a 50 yd IR TD with 7:44 left when they were only down by 17. ULM’s final 2 poss ended on intereptions at the UK13 and at their own 41…

Washington was in control of the UO game early. In fact, with 8:13 left in the 2Q, UW had 10-3 FD and 163-25 yd edges. Amazingly the score was Oregon, 8-3. Just like the previous week against UCLA, a big special teams play (this time a blk’d punt for a TD) gave them their first TD and UW had 2 drives getting 1st & gl at the 9 and 1st & gl at the 2 but they resulted in a 33 yd FG and a 4th & gl int in the EZ. At the half UW had a 195-141 yd edge but trailed 15-6 and the Ducks took control in the 3Q and rolled to a 43-19 win…

Air Force had a commanding 22-8 FD edge vs Utah and in regulation had a 300-242 yd edge. Ninety-one of Utah’s 242 yds came on a 3rd & 4 slant pass from their own 9 which WR Reed broke 2 tackles and raced 90 yds for a TD. Utah’s other TD in regulation came when their QB fumbled the ball and RB Wide scooped it up and raced 44 yds for a TD. AF held the ball for 38:57 to Utah’s 21:03 but lost it in OT when they were stopped on 4th & 2.

TURNOVERS CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE – There was no game this past weekend where turnovers had a bigger difference than the Nebraska/Iowa St game. NU’s D was taking on an ISU offense that was missing its QB Arnaud and top RB Robinson. They held ISU to 11 FD’s and 239 yards. Unfortunately, NU’s offense turned it over an amazing EIGHT times. NU fittingly fumbled on the first play of the game at their own 39 setting up an ISU FG. From the ISU16 they were intercepted at the 2 and ISU’s lone TD came after they faked a punt on 4th & 5 at their own 33 for a gain of 20 yards and then with NU’s D unexpectedly back on the field, ISU got a 47 yd TD pass on the next play. NU appeared to have a 73 yd TD pass to Paul but he was tripped up and dropped the ball. He scooped the ball back up and fumbled into the endzone for a TB and ISU rec’d. NU fumbled into the EZ for a TB on its first drive of the 3Q and then fumbled at the ISU5. They fumbled at their own 22 on the next drive. Two poss later NU was intercepted at the ISU37 and NU’s final offensive play was an int at their own 35 with 1:37 left.

College Football Cheat Sheet
By Marc Lawrence

It’s Halloween weekend and with it the potential of upsets galore on the College Football card. Which teams will be tricking and which teams will be treating? Answers to these questions follow below.

Here are the teams currently ranked in the Top 25 of the current USA Today/Coaches Poll. Listed below as stats, fact and trends surrounding this week’s football card. Home team in CAPS. All results are ATS - Against The Spread - unless noted otherwise…

Thursday, October 29th

North Carolina at (14) VIRGINIA TECH

Tar Heels: 5-1 Game Eight… 4-1 aft Fla St… 0-3 A off 3+ HG… 1-4 w/ conf rev

Hokies: SERIES: 3-1 L4… 14-3 SU and ATS reg sea Thursdays (7-0 DD favs)… 4-1 H w/ rest… Beamer: 15-4-1 home off a loss vs. greater than .500 opp… Hokies 0-2 SU this season in Atlanta but 5-0 SU elsewhere this season… lined opp W-L record this season: 33-13

Friday, October 30th

(20) West Virginia at SOUTH FLORIDA

Mountaineers: 0-3 after Connecticut… 1-5 weekdays

Bulls: SERIES: 3-0 L3… 3-1-1 after Pittsburgh… 53-13 SU last 66 home games 5-2 HF / HD 3 < pts… 0-6 weekdays… 0-3 Game Eight

Saturday, October 31st

(1) Florida vs. Georgia

Gators: 4-0-1 aft Miss St… 9-1 A/N vs conf rev… 8-1 as conf favs 20 < pts… have held all six line opp to season low – or 2nd low – yards this season

Bulldogs: SERIES: Dog 5-2-1… 5-1 dogs w/ conf rev… Richt: 5-0 dog 7 or more points / 5-0 dog or fav less than 3 points with rest… playing with revenge from worst loss ever last season

(3) Texas at (13) OKLAHOMA STATE

Longhorns: SERIES: 3-1-1 L5 A… 3-1 after Missouri… 6-2 in 2nd of BB RG… 0-4 Game Eight… 1-6-1 as conf RF’s 10 < pts… Brown: 0-8 ATS RF vs .800 opp

Cowboys: 6-0 w/revenge vs 1000 opp… 5-0 H in between RG… 8-1 Game Eight… 1-4-1 after Baylor… 2-6-1 as HD’s 10 < pts

(4) Southern Cal at (12) OREGON

Trojans: SERIES: 5-1 L6… 5-0 after Oregon St… *7-1 RF’s 8

Ducks: 7-0 H after Wash… 6-2 conf HD’s 20 < Pts… 5-2 dogs w/ conf rev… 0-3 H off BB RG… 4-0 atop PAC 10 with 3-1 USC breathing down their backs

San Jose State at (5) BOISE STATE

Spartans: 3-0 Game Seven… 3-1 after Fresno St… 1-4 A w/ conf rev… 1-4 dogs 24 > pts… 2-7 A w/ rest… Tomey: 2-6 as dog of 25 or more points… Spartans lined opp are 25-10 this season

Broncos: SERIES: 3-1 L4 H… 9-1 H off BB RG… 7-1 Game Eight… 5-1-1 as conf favs 24 > pts… 3-1 before LA Tech… 37-0 SU and 28-8-1 home vs. con, but just 6-4-1 ATS when laying 28 or more points

Unlv at (6) TCU

Runnin’ Rebels: 0-3 conf dogs 24 > pts… 1-8 in 2nd of BB RG… 1-6 before Colorado St… 1-4 after New Mexico

Horned Frogs: SERIES: 5-1 L6… 8-0 H vs conf rev… 3-1 after BYU… 2-6 H Game Eight… 2-6 favs 27 > pts

(7) Cincinnati at SYRACUSE

Bearcats: SERIES 3-1 / 3-1 L4 A… 5-1 A vs conf rev… 4-1 after Louisville… 1-6 conf RF’s 20 < pts… 2-8 favs vs < .500 conf opp

Orange: 15-5 SU and 17-3 ATS at home off a home win of eight or more points… 5-1 before Pittsburgh… 6-2 vs conf off SU non-conf win… 6th straight HG - only 2nd team since 1980 to enjoy this much home cooking

Indiana at (8) IOWA

Hoosiers: 1-7 Game Nine… 1-5 in 2nd of BB RG… 1-4 after N’Western… 2-8 A w/ conf rev… blew 28-3 lead at Northwestern last week… need 2 wins in final 4 games to gain bowl eligibility

Hawkeyes: SERIES: 5-2 L7 / lost here in 2007 as 10-point HF’s… 6-0 after Mich St… 14-2 H off BB RG… 4-1 vs conf rev… *2-7 favs 16 > pts

Tulane at (9) LSU

Green Wave: SERIES: Visitor 8-3… 4-1 dogs 27 > pts… 3-1 after S Miss… 1-4 in 2nd of BB RG… 1-3 bef Texas El Paso… 37 straight losses to ranked opp

Tigers: 4-1-1 aft Auburn… 11-3 non-conf favs 24 > Pts… 1-5-1 vs non-conf rev… 1-5-1 before Alabama… 1-4 Game Eight… in middle of Auburn/Alabama sandwich

(10) Penn State at NORTHWESTERN

Nittany Lions: 3-0-1 conf RF’s 9 > pts… 10-3 Game Nine… 7-3 after Michigan… 1-4 in 2nd of BB RG… in bad spot off Michigan w/Ohio State up next (3-7 favs before Buckeyes)

Wildcats: SERIES: 4-1 L5 H… 5-0 dogs in 2nd of BB HG… 4-1 Game Nine… 3-1 after Indiana… 2-9 as DD HD’s off SU win… rallied from 28-3 deficit to beat Indiana last week

(11) Georgia Tech at VANDERBILT

Yellow Jackets: 5-0 after Virginia… 4-1 A vs SEC… Johnson: 16-3 away vs opp off loss, including 15-0 as a dog or favorite of less than 11 points… 4-1 in 2nd of BB RG

Commodores: 5-1 after S Carolina… 8-2 dogs vs ACC… 1-4 as DD HD’s… 2-6 H in between away games

New Mexico State at (15) OHIO STATE

Aggies: 2-0 dogs more than 32 points

Buckeyes: 16-0 SU and 11-5 ATS before PSU – but only 1-3 ATS as a favorite of more than 21 points

Southern Miss at (16) HOUSTON

Eagles: 4-0 conf dogs 8 > pts… 3-0 Game Nine… 4-1 after Toledo… 7-3 A off BB HG… Eagles with over 100 yards the better defense

Cougars: SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 4-1 L5 H… 3-1 before Tulsa… 0-4-1 after SMU… *1-7 conf favs 14 pts… 2-7 vs conf rev… Shannon: 3-11 con fav

Demon Deacons: 9-1-1 Game Nine… 6-1 conf HD’s 2 > pts… 5-1 bef Ga Tech

Wyoming at (19) UTAH

Cowboys: 1-3 SU and ATS off shutout loss… lost last two games to Utes by 90-7 count

Utes: 9-1 L10 double-digit con favs… OT winners at home in conference games are 62-47-1 ATS next

(21) South Carolina at TENNESSEE

Gamecocks: SERIES: 5-1 L6 A… 6-2 vs conf rev… 6-2 after Vandy… 6-2 conf RD’s 6 < pts

Volunteers: 8-2 in 1st of BB HG… 7-3 vs conf before non-conf HG… 3-1 before Memphis… 0-5 as HF’s w/ conf rev… SEC HF’s 9-19 after Alabama

(22) Ole Miss at AUBURN

Rebels: SERIES: 4-17 SU (favored three times – lost twice SU)… 3-9 L12 as road chalk

Tigers: 4-2 L6 as HD… 0-3 SU, ATS and ITS L3G after 5-0 … low scoring series has seen these two average 26 total PPG last four meetings

Kansas State at (23) OKLAHOMA

Wildcats: SERIES: 7-1 L8 A… 1-3 Game Nine… 2-6 A w/ conf rev… 4-14 conf RD’s 4 > pts off BB HG

Sooners: 1-5 conf HF’s 22 > pts… 1-4 after RG vs Kansas… 2-8 H Game Eight… held all 7 opponents to season low – or 2nd low – yards this season

(25) Notre Dame vs. Washington State

Fighting Irish: 8-19 L27 as favs of –20 or more points… last six Irish games this season decided by seven or fewer points… game in San Antonio

Cougars: 3-0 non-con dogs of 20 or more… 3-1 this season as dogs of 20 or more

Other ranked teams:

(2) Alabama, (17) Pittsburgh and (24) Arizona off this week.

Primetime Tips
By Brian Edwards

Let’s jump right into a discussion of what gamblers are looking at as options for Saturday night in Week 9. A battle of once-beaten teams at Autzen Stadium in Eugene is the main event, as Oregon is set to host USC in a crucial Pac-10 showdown.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Southern Cal (6-1 straight up, 2-5 against the spread) as a 4 ½-point road favorite, but the Trojans were favored by three Thursday afternoon. The total is 47 and the Ducks are plus-130 on the money line (risk $100 to win $130).

Since getting dominated in a 19-8 loss at Boise St. in its opener, Oregon (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) has responded with six straight wins. The Ducks have covered the spread in five consecutive outings, including last week’s 43-19 win at Washington as 9 ½-point road favorites.

With the Huskies leading 3-0 early in the second quarter, the game turned on a blocked punt by Oregon’s Rory Cavaille that was recovered for a touchdown by Tyrell Irvine. Washington countered by marching down the field for a first-and-goal opportunity from the Ducks’ four yard line.

However, three plays later, Jake Locker was intercepted on fourth and goal by Javes Lewis. If you think those key plays were momentum shifters, check out what happened next.

On Oregon’s ensuing drive, it faced a second and 36 and a third and 25, but Jeremiah Masoli hit David Paulson for a 32-yard gainer for a first down. Moments later on fourth and five, the Ducks perfectly executed a fake field goal that eventually set up Masoli for a one-yard touchdown run.

Masoli added another TD run and a TD pass in the second half. He finished with 54 yards rushing on 11 carries, in addition to completing 14-of-22 passes for 157 yards without an interception. Redshirt freshman running back LaMichael James turned in another spectacular performance, rushing 15 times for 154 yards and two touchdowns.

The aforementioned debacle on the smurf turf is a distant memory for the Ducks because of the play of James, who stepped in for the suspended LaGarrette Blount and has rushed for 735 yards and six TDs. James is averaging a robust 6.9 yards per carry.

Also, we have to offer major props to first-year head coach Chip Kelly. Seriously, has a coaching debut ever been as big a catastrophe as Kelly dealt with in Boise? For starters, he replaced Mike Bellotti after serving under him as an offensive coordinator for two seasons, yet his offense didn’t get a first down against the Broncos until late in the third quarter.

And then there was the post-game hysteria caused by Blount that led to his suspension the following day. But since then, the Ducks have been rolling. They have won all four home games, posting a 3-1 spread record.

California came to Eugene with an unbeaten record and was favored by five back in Week 4. The Bears left with a 42-3 loss. Next, Oregon waxed Washington St. by a 52-6 count. Now it returns home after road wins over UCLA (24-10) and Washington.

Pete Carroll’s team has won four straight games since suffering its lone loss at Washington back in Week 3. With that said, gamblers have been better served by fading the Trojans, who are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.

USC won a 42-36 decision over Oregon St. last week, but the Beavers easily covered the number as 20 ½-point underdogs. Allen Bradford was the catalyst for the Trojans, producing 147 yards and a pair of rushing TDs on 15 carries. Damian Williams also had a critical 63-yard punt return for a TD.

Freshman QB Matt Barkley threw for 202 yards and two TDs, but he was also intercepted twice. For the year, Barkley has a ho-hum 7/5 TD-INT ratio. Williams is his favorite target, hauling in 34 receptions for 525 yards and three TDs.

Joe McKnight leads USC in rushing with 617 yards and seven TDs, averaging 6.4 YPC. Bradford has 375 rushing yards and four TDs, averaging 7.4 YPC.

USC has been a road favorite four times this year, compiling a 3-1 SU record and a 1-3 ATS ledger. The last time the Trojans went to Eugene, they left with a 24-17 loss as 2 ½-point road underdogs. However, they beat down the Ducks last season by a 44-10 score as 16-point home favorites.

The ‘over’ is 4-3 overall for the Ducks, 3-1 in their home games. Meanwhile, USC has seen the ‘under’ go 4-3 overall, 3-1 in its road assignments.

ABC will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

The fans of Oregon and USC will also have their eyes on the events in Stillwater. That’s where Oklahoma State will try to knock off undefeated Texas in a Big 12 battle. LVSC opened the Longhorns as 8 ½-point road favorites with a total of 52.

As of late Thursday afternoon, most spots had the ‘Horns at nine with the total still sitting at 52. The Cowboys are plus-280 to win outright (risk $100 to win $280).

Texas (7-0 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) might have played its best game of the season last week, trouncing Missouri 41-7 as a 13-point road ‘chalk.’ Colt McCoy connected on 26-of-31 attempts for 269 passing yards with three TDs and one interception. Mack Brown’s defense was dynamite, limiting the Tigers to just 173 yards of total offense.

Jordan Shipley had seven catches for 108 yards, including a pair of TD grabs. Shipley could be on his way to garnering All-American honors, as he has 58 receptions for 713 yards and five scores. McCoy hasn’t matched his 2008 numbers, but he’s still completing 71.7 percent of his passes. He has 1,806 passing yards and 14 TD passes, but McCoy has been picked off eight times, the equivalent of his interception total for all of ’08.

Oklahoma State (6-1 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) has bounced back from a 45-35 home loss to Houston to win five straight games. During that stretch, Mike Gundy’s squad is 2-1-1 versus the number.

The Cowboys spanked Baylor last week 34-7 as nine-point road favorites. OSU senior QB Zac Robinson was nearly flawless, completing 23-of-27 passes for 250 yards with three TDs and zero interceptions.

Robinson has had to deal with the recent absences of his two premier weapons. Nevertheless, he is enjoying another stellar campaign with a 12/3 TD-INT ratio.

Robinson’s favorite target, junior All-American Dez Bryant, has missed the last four games after being suspended by the NCAA for lying about his offseason workouts with Deion Sanders. With his appeals recently exhausted, Bryant has now been ruled out for the rest of the season.

On the other hand, RB Kendall Hunter might return to the field this week. Hunter, who rushed for 1,555 yards and 16 TDs in ’08, has been out with a leg injury since a 41-24 win over Rice in Week 3.

Oklahoma St. owns a 4-4-2 spread record as a home underdog on Gundy’s watch. The ‘Boys are 4-1 SU and 2-2 ATS at home this year.

The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for Texas, 2-0 in its road games. OSU has watched the ‘under’ cash at a 4-2 overall clip and a 3-1 pace in its home outings.

ABC will provide regional coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

Those two games are the highlights of the prime-time action, but gamblers certainly have other options under the lights. For instance, South Carolina goes to Knoxville to take on Tennessee at Neyland Stadium. This will be the ESPN game at 7:45 p.m. Eastern.

As of late Thursday, most books had the Vols listed as six-point favorites with a total of 41. The Gamecocks are plus-200 on the money line.

Steve Spurrier’s team owns an 11-4-1 spread record in 16 games as a road underdog during his five-year tenure at South Carolina. The Gamecocks have taken the cash in all four games as underdogs this season. On the flip side, the Vols are 2-3 ATS in five games as home favorites in ’09.

If you like to eat chalk, you’ll certainly have a chance to do so in NBC’s primetime broadcast of Washington State versus Notre Dame at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. The Irish and Cougars will square off at the Alamodome in San Antonio.

LVSC opened Notre Dame as a 31-point favorite, but most books have adjusted the Irish to 28. Oklahoma is also a 28-point ‘chalk’ for its home game against Kansas State on FSN at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Wildcats actually lead the Big 12 North with a 3-1 conference record, but they have played a creampuff schedule to date.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Oregon’s Masoli has seven rushing TDs and a 5/2 TD-INT ratio when throwing the ball.

Texas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 head-to-head meetings against OSU.

FSU has been favored four times this year, going winless both SU and ATS in those four contests. The ‘Noles return to the ‘chalk’ role this week against North Carolina St. Most spots have Bobby Bowden’s team favored by either nine or 9 ½ (as of Thursday).

If you simply saw the score and didn’t check the box score or recap for Iowa State’s stunning 9-7 win over Nebraska last week, then let me make some sense of it for you. The Cornhuskers had eight turnovers. That’s right, EIGHT turnovers. Most appalling for Bo Pelini’s team was the fact that four of those give-aways came inside the Cyclones’ five yard line. Nebraska will try to bounce back this week at Baylor as a 13 ½-point favorite. The Bears are down to their third-string QB and have been unable to muster much offensive production since losing sophomore sensation Robert Griffin to a season-ending injury. The ‘Huskers are 3-0 ATS as road favorites on Pelini’s watch.

vegasinsider.com

Public Enemies - Week 9
By Kevin Rogers

Following some of last week's developments around college football, it's time to find out which teams will keep up its winning ways, and how bettors will respond to perception. This week, we'll take a look at a pair of ACC battles, two inconsistent Big 12 teams, and if Idaho can rebound from a pounding at Nevada.

N.C. State at Florida State (-9, 64)

The Seminoles try to salvage their season after rallying at North Carolina last Thursday, as FSU picked up its first ACC win of the season. The Wolfpack started the season at 3-1, but Tom O'Brien's team has dropped three straight, while allowing 101 points the last two losses.

FSU has struggled to cover the line in this series, as N.C. State has cashed in seven of the last eight meetings with the lone non-cover resulting in a push. The Noles are 2-0 the last two meetings, including a 26-17 victory in Raleigh last season. Christian Ponder's numbers are some of the best in the nation, as the FSU quarterback is completing 70% of his passes, while tossing 12 touchdowns and just one interception.

The Wolfpack are able to score points, but their defense has let them down recently, allowing 30 at Wake Forest, 49 to Duke, and 52 at Boston College. Russell Wilson owns solid numbers with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions, but the Wolfpack QB has failed to throw for more than 275 yards in any of the last three games.

VI capper Joe Nelson says the Wolfpack's skid was not anticipated, "N.C. State was expected to be a potential contender in the ACC, but after a promising start including a win over Pittsburgh that now looks fairly impressive, the Wolfpack have stumbled in what was supposed to be the softer part of the conference schedule. N.C. State has had two weeks to get things back in order and the Wolfpack have been a much better defensive team than Florida State, although the numbers are a bit skewed with two FCS wins."

On the flip side, Ponder has carried the FSU offense, but there are still problems elsewhere on this team, according to Nelson, "The Seminoles are giving up a lot of big plays on defense and there has not been a consistent running game. The underdog has had great success in this series and N.C. State is generally that team. With the extra preparation time and catching FSU off a huge win that they may not have deserved, the Wolfpack can hang around and have a shot at a minor upset."

Duke at Virginia (-7, 47½)

Amazingly, two of the more profitable teams in the ACC were laughed at following losses to FCS schools in each team's season opener. The Blue Devils and Cavaliers are a combined 7-3-1 ATS this season, while UVA has covered four of its last five.

Duke continues to improve after being a conference doormat for years, coming off consecutive conference wins over N.C. State and Maryland. The Blue Devils have been a solid 'over' play as well, sailing 'over' the total in five of six games, before finishing 'under' against the Terrapins.

The Wahoos had played terrific defense during a three-game winning streak, allowing 19 combined points to North Carolina, Indiana, and Maryland. Al Groh's defense was lit up last week, giving up 34 points in a home loss to Georgia Tech.

Nelson feels this game can go either way between these surprising squads, "Duke has averaged over 110 more yards per game on offense with a strong passing attack and defensively the Blue Devils have not been a complete pushover, actually featuring much better numbers against the run than Virginia. Although Duke has the better record, Virginia should be the superior team and the home team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. Duke has been a decent ATS team away from home in recent years and this is a team with much more momentum than a typical Blue Devils squad which makes this game a very tough call."

Iowa State at Texas A&M (-7, 60)

The Cyclones and Aggies have each been tough to figure out this season, but they are turning into halfway-relevant teams inside the Big 12. Iowa State had a great shot to upset Kansas, but fell in the final minute when the Cyclones couldn't convert a fourth down in Jayhawks' territory. ISU rebounded with consecutive wins over Baylor and Nebraska, allowing 17 points the last two games.

The Aggies started the season on fire, winning three straight, but then dropped three in a row. Texas A&M rebounded with a blowout victory at Texas Tech, 52-30, covering easily as 22-point road 'dogs. Mike Sherman's team owns one of the top offenses in the country, averaging nearly 36 ppg and 489 yards a contest.

Both these teams have shocked many inside the Big 12, but staying with the underdog may be the way to go, according to Nelson, "While Texas A&M has been the more impressive offensive team, the Cyclones have posted very impressive defensive numbers. The pressure will be greater on A&M in this match-up as Iowa State is playing with house money at this point, as they have exceeded all expectations already in Coach Paul Rhoads' first season. Last season, Iowa State posted 574 yards against A&M, but lost and this year the Cyclones can keep the run of strong play going as an underdog again."

Louisiana Tech at Idaho (-3, 57)

The Vandals have been one of the pointspread "darlings" of the season so far, covering seven of eight games this season. Idaho's seven-game ATS run came to a screeching halt last week in an embarrassing 70-45 defeat at Nevada. Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, is 3-0 SU/ATS at home and 0-4 SU/ATS on the road.

Idaho owns a solid offense, but also possesses a shoddy defense (evidenced by the 70-spot thrown up by Nevada). The Vandals allowed 484 rushing yards on 53 carries to the Wolfpack last week, which computes into nearly 10 yards/carry. Prior to this loss, Idaho's rushing defense had given up 444 combined yards in their previous five contests.

The Bulldogs have won three of the last four meetings with the Vandals, including a 46-14 blowout last October in Rustin. Louisiana Tech has scored over 14 points just once in four road contests, putting up 21 in a loss last week at Utah State.

Nelson feels the Vandals have proven more this season than the Bulldogs, "Louisiana Tech has been the better defensive team, but the schedule has been very weak and the Bulldogs are not as strong on offense as last year's bowl team. Idaho has covered in six straight home games and facing another road game will be a difficult challenge for Louisiana Tech, a team that is 14-37-1 ATS on the road since '02. Look for the Vandals to bounce back as last week's loss was a misleading final against a very tough Nevada team."

vegasinsider.com

Finding the Traps - Week 9
By The Prez

Perhaps we should just pick against Florida every Saturday in our weekly trap game story. For the second straight week UF was fortunate to avoid a straight-up upset to one of the worst teams in the SEC West Division. Two weeks ago it was Arkansas nearly winning in the Swamp, while last week Mississippi State was +23 and lost by just 10 in Starkville in a game that was there for the taking. That was unfortunately one of just two correctly predicted trap game covers I hit for the underdog last week. The other was Oregon State getting 20.5 points at USC. The three misses last week were Baylor +9.5 against Oklahoma State, Washington +10 against Oregon and Louisville +18 against Cincinnati. That makes me 10-11-1 on the year.

Let’s get that above .500 this week. Remember, I only take the big underdogs in these potential trap situations:

Ohio State (-44) vs. New Mexico State: Why on earth are the Buckeyes even playing this game in the middle of Big Ten play? Well, the answer is money of course. I am not sure how oddsmakers can give OSU a 44-point cushion. Have they not seen this offense? Don’t get me wrong, this game shouldn’t be close, as the Aggies rank last in the country in offense. But the Buckeyes’ real season starts next week at Penn State – so look for coach Jim Tressel to pull the plug on some key starters fairly early this week, likely ensuring that New Mexico State stays within 35 points or so.

Iowa (-17.5) vs. Indiana: The Hawkeyes lost two starting Robinsons for the rest of the regular season this week: running back Adam and top offensive lineman Dace. The Hawkeyes aren’t a very good offensive team as it is, rankings 86th in the country in scoring. These losses may make them even more conservative. This just smells like that Arkansas State game from earlier this year that Iowa escaped from. The Hawkeyes will win here, but after playing big-time teams Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State in a row, there just has to be a letdown this Saturday.

Notre Dame (-28) vs. Washington State: OK, this one is a bit of a trap for the Irish not because of who they play next week (Navy), but because of where this game is: San Antonio’s Alamodome. Now, it takes some getting used to when playing in a dome. And in my opinion, unfamiliar surroundings for both teams usually helps the underdog. And remember that Notre Dame is the king of the close game: its past six games have been decided by a TD or less. Frankly this will feel like a Notre Dame home game fan wise (it technically is) but I think Wazzu hangs close.

LSU (-35.5) vs. Tulane: OK, Tulane is a lousy team. The program has lost 37 straight games to ranked teams and 17 straight in this series. But this is also the last time the Green Wave will get a chance against their big brothers in the state. Earlier this year, LSU paid Tulane $700,000 to essentially go away, voiding the remaining six years on the contract for this series. LSU basically said it didn’t feel it should have to play at Tulane any longer (in the Superdome). I am thinking the Green Wave are motivated by this. And LSU is at Alabama next week for the lead in the SEC West. I don’t care how good of a coach Les Miles is, there’s no way the Tigers are really focused on the game this week.

CFB Streaks & Notes
By SportsPic

UNLV at TCU

Horned Frogs (7-0, 4-3 ATS) thrashing a fired up BYU 38-7 in its own house aren't about to see it's thirteen game (10-2 ATS) home streak come to an end vs Rebels who, on the road averaging 29.7 scoring but give up a whopping 36.7 PPG. Horned Frogs leading the series 6-1 winning the past four matchups by 29.3 PPG won't be denied. Scoring 46.3 PPG on home turf while holding teams to just 13.7 points Horned Frogs look primed to cover the massive 35+ points, they're 5-0 ATS their last 5 games vs. losing teams, 12-6 ATS vs conference foes, 6-2 ATS laying 20 or more points

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Vanderbilt Commodores

The Yellow Jackets are coming off another big rushing performance after rolling up 362 yards in a 34-9 victory over Virginia. No one's stopping this offense running game, least of all Commodores who get torched for 165.4 rushing yards/game. Yellow Jackets 9-2 ATS last eleven on the highway, 6-3 (6-2-1 ATS) away vs SEC opponents sting Commodores for a third consecutive time since 2002.

USC at Oregon

The fourth-ranked Trojans look to stay in the hunt for an eighth consecutive league title when they visit Autzen Stadium to do battle with 10th-ranked Ducks and their prolific offense. If Trojans are to stay in the hunt the defense will likely need to improve after allowing Beavers to roll up 482 yards of total offense last week. Oregon ridding a six game win streak (5-1 ATS) scoring 38.3 PPG allowing foes 16.3 points are dangerous foes. Putting up 40.8 PPG on 426.5 yards while surrendering 17.2 PPG on 278.2 total yards at home these Ducks are worth a serious look as 3-point pups. Ducks have won seven straight Pac-10 tilts (6-1 ATS), defeated USC 24-17 the last time these two met on this field, enter 9-3 ATS as home underdogs, 5-2 ATS L7 as home pups of +.5 to +3.0 and come in 6-1 ATS facing a squad with a winning record, 4-0 ATS hosting a team with a winning road record.

NCAAF Week 9

Top games

Central Michigan won last seven games; its only loss was 16-3 in opener at improved Arizona (+13.5). Boston College is 4-0 vs spread at home, winning lined games by 27-3-7-32 points. Four of Eagles' last five games went over total. Chippewas are 6-1 vs spread this season- they ran ball for average of 273 ypg last four tilts. MAC road dogs are 14-8 vs spread in non-conference games; ACC home favorites are 6-6 outside the ACC.

Duke won its last two games, passing ball for 70-93/833 yards; they've got underrated QB in senior Lewis, who threw for 359 yards at Virginia Tech in surprisingly close 34-26 loss. Blue Devils snapped 8-game skid vs Cavaliers LY, routing Virginia 31-3; they've lost last four games here, all by 11+ points. Cavs had three-game win streak snapped 34-9 a week ago by Ga Tech; they've converted just six of last 27 on third down.

Miami is 3-0 vs Wake Forest, winning the games by combined score of 115-34, but LY's game was 16-10; 'canes won three of last four games but have been minus in turnovers in four of last five. Wake Forest scored total of 13 points in losing last two games, allowing 533 rushing yards; they've covered eight of last ten games as a home dog. Wake won four in a row at home, scoring 32.8 ppg. Last three Miami games stayed under.

NC State's defense has fallen apart, allowing 40.5 ppg in last last games; they gave up 101 to Duke/BC in their last two, now run into Florida St. squad that rallied from 24-6 deficit to win last game, ending a three-game skid. Underdog covered seven of last eight series games, and is 6-0 vs the spread in Seminole games this season. Last four Wolfpack games went over total. Former NC State coach Amato is on FSU staff.

Iowa State was an amazing +8 in turnovers last week, still won just 9-7 at Nebraska; Cyclones were without starting QB/TB, but Tiller is pretty strong backup QB. ISU is 5-3, with only one loss by more than 5 points; they're 2-0 as road dog this season. Texas A&M ended three-game skid with 52-30 upset win in Lubbock last week, but Aggies still allowed 36-62-30 points last three games. Big 12 home favorites are 5-6 vs spread.

Auburn won seven of last nine games vs Ole Miss, winning last two at this site, 17-3/27-3, but Tigers lost last three games by 21-7-21 points, as Auburn passed for just 103 ypg, after averaging 259.2 in first five of season. Ole Miss scored 10-3 in its two losses; they scored 48-30 in its last two games; they're 4-1 vs spread as fave this year, but covered just two of last seven as road favorite. SEC home dogs are 4-6 this year.

Florida's offensive line is banged up, their offense is struggling, scoring 21.7 ppg last three games; Gators won nine of last 11 series games- last year, they crushed Dawgs 49-10. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in last ten series games. Georgia had much-needed week off last week; they're 1-3 in '09 when scoring less than 34 points. Favorites are 11-17 vs spread in SEC games this season. Last five Florida games stayed under total.

Temple won its last five games, is bowl eligible with next win; credit to coach Golden for this fix-it job; Owls lost last four games vs Navy, with Middies scoring 35.8 ppg. Navy beat Wake Forest last week with a new QB who didn't try one pass; they've also won five straight games, with three of last four wins by exactly three points. Navy is 3-2-1 as favorite this year. MAC road underdogs are 14-8 vs spread out of conference.

Favorite won, covered last four Cal-Arizona State games; Bears won two of last three visits to Tempe. Cal was held to 3 points in both its losses, they scored 35+ in their wins- they've won road games 45-26 at UCLA, 35-21 at Minnesota (lost at Oregon). ASU is just 15 for last 53 on 3rd down; they're 2-3 in last five games, with last two losses by 11-19 pts. Under is 4-0-1 last five Sun Devil games. Pac-10 home dogs are 4-5.

Oklahoma State won last five games, scoring 33+ points in all five, but you figure against quality foe, loss of star WR Bryant could rear its ugly head here. State is dog for first time this year- they're 0-11 vs Longhorns, but last two losses were by total of 7 points. Texas is on road third week in row; they covered three of last four tries as favorite. Big 12 home dogs are 3-4 vs spread. Five of last six Texas games stayed under total.

Kansas, Texas Tech both reeling off losses; Red Raiders won five of last six series games, with dog covering last five. Tech crushed Kansas 63-21 LY, outgaining Jayhawks 556-315. Tech had won three in row before a 52-30 loss last week; they're 2-3 as favorite in '09.Kansas allowed 36-34-35 points in last three games, which is red flag when facing Tech squad smarting from last week'sloss. Big 12 home favorites are 5-6 vs spread.

South Carolina's last three visits to Knoxville were decided by total of 7 points (dogs 5-0-1 vs spread in last six series games here); Gamecocks scored total of 20 points in last two games; they're 6-2 despite scoring 16 or less in half their games. Carolina is 4-0 vs spread as dog this year; their losses are 41-37 at Georgia, 20-6 at Alabama. Vols fought hearts out in 12-10 loss at Bama last week. SEC home favorites are 5-13.

Oregon won last six games, USC last four; Ducks picked off 2+ passes in five of their six wins, but they're 1-4 in last five games vs Trojans, with all four losses by 11+ points. USC is 4-0 vs spread in its last four series games as the favorite- faves covered seven of last eight in series. Ducks allowed total of 38 points in last four games. Trojans scored 34-42 pts in last two games; they've covered just one of their last six contests.

Minnesota is 5-2 in last seven games vs Michigan State, but teams didn't play last two seasons. Gophers lost three of last four games, were held to one TD in last two games. Favorite is 6-2 vs spread in Minnesota tilts this year; Gophers are 0-3 as underdog. Spartans lost to Iowa on the last play last week; they're 3-2 as '09 favorite. Big 11 home dogs are 2-5 vs spread this season. Last four Michigan State games stayed under total.

Other games

-- Rutgers won five of last six games, covered eight of last 10 as road dog visiting UConn squad that was in Miami Monday for Howard's funeral. Huskies are 6-1 vs spread this season, 2-0 when favored.

-- Cincinnati has 13 INTs in last seven games, has +11 TO ratio; they've outscored last three opponents 51-16 in second half. Four of their last five games stayed under total. Syracuse is 2-2 as a home dog.

-- Two of Ohio U's three road wins were in OT; they've got injury issues at QB. Ball State is just 1-7; five of their last seven games were decided by seven or less points. MAC home underdogs are 5-7 vs spread.

-- Iowa is missing best RB, a starting OG; only one of its eight wins this year is by more than 11 points. Indiana covered five of last seven games; they're 3-1 as road dog. Big 11 home favorites are 7-9 vs the spread.

-- Purdue won its last two games, Wisconsin lost its last two, scoring 13-10 points; Badgers are 1-3 vs spread as favorite in '09. Purdue allowed 73 points in 2 road tilts. Five of last six Boiler games stayed under total.

-- Akron lost last five games, four by 12+ points; they're 2-2 as road dog in '09, with three road losses by 14+. Underdog is 5-1 vs spread in '09 in Northern Illinois games this year. Huskies are 1-3 as a favorite.

-- Ohio State should be able to name score vs New Mexico State squad that got waxed at home by Fresno last week. Aggies are 1-3 vs spread in last four games. Buckeyes have Penn State next, won't show everything.

-- Georgia Tech won, covered last five games; they're 3-1 as favorite this year, 2-0 at home. ACC faves are 9-7 vs spread out of conference, 3-1 on road; SEC dogs are 2-2. Six of last seven Vandy games stayed under.

-- 0-7 Eastern Michigan is 2-5 vs spread this year. MAC road dogs are 14-8 vs spread in non-league games. Arkansas is 2-4 in its ast six games; under is 3-1-1 in their last five. SEC home favorites are 9-7.

-- Western Michigan is 1-3 as underdog in '09' they allowed 472 yards a game in last three games. Kent covered its last five games; they're 2-0 as a favorite this season, but are just 26-108 on third down conversions.

-- Baylor lost last three games, by 26-14-27 points, but Nebraska lost its last two, scoring total of 17 points- they had seven points last week but turned ball over eight times. Six of last seven Husker tilts stayed under.

-- SMU is 4-1 vs spread as dog this year; four of its last six games were decided by seven or less points. Tulsa lost last two games but is 3-1 vs spread as a favorite. Last six Tulsa games stayed under the total.

-- UAB lost five of last six games, is 0-4 as road dog, losing away games by average of 26 points. Average total in last five UTEP games is 65.4. Favorites are 14-10 vs spread in C-USA games, 7-5 at home.

-- San Jose State is 0-5 vs I-A teams and 0-3 vs spread as a road dog this year. Boise State is 5-1 vs spread, 2-0 as home favorite. Spartans gave up 576 rushing yards in last two games. WAC home faves are 7-2.

-- Miami OH is 0-8 but covered three of last four games; opponents have outscored them 159-31 in first half of games, with only one loss by less than 10 points. Toledo allowed 30+ points in three of its four wins.

-- UCLA lost last four games, three by 14+ points; they allowed average of 239.7 rushing yards in last three games. Bruins converted 21 of last 82 on 3rd down. Over is 3-0-1 in Oregon State's last four games.

-- Michigan is just 24-56 passing last two games; they lost last three vs I-A opponents, are 0-2 on road. Illinois lost last five games (0-4 vs line in last four). Illini covered one of four as an underdog this season.

-- Missouri lost last three games, allowing 33.7 ppg; their last six games stayed under total. Colorado covered four of last five games; they're 2-0 at home, beating Wyoming, Kansas. Big 12 home underdogs are 3-4.

-- Kansas lost last two games, allowed 33.3 ppg in last four (0-4 against spread). Texas Tech won three of last four games, all of which were won by 20+ points. Home favorites are 5-6 vs spread in Big 12 games.

-- Nevada won last four games, scoring 41.3 ppg, running ball for 425.3 ypg (625 TY/game). Hawai'i lost last five games (0-4 vs spread last four) Favorite covered three of their four road games.

-- TCU had huge win at BYU last week, has to avoid letdown vs UNLV squad that lost four of last five games (1-5 vs spread in last six). Under is 3-1-1 in Horned Frogs' last five games. MWC home favorites are 3-4.

-- Colorado State lost last five games (1-4 vs spread); in last two games, Rams were outscored 62-7 in second half. Air Force lost OT game last week at Utah- they're 1-3 on road, beating winless New Mexico 37-13.

-- Penn State won last four games by average score of 36-8, covering last three games as favorite; six of their last seven games stayed under total. Northwestern is 5-3, with losses by 3-11-10 (2-1 as an underdog).

-- Idaho is 7-1 vs spread this year, 1-0 as home favorite, winning at home by 14-2-12 points. Favorite is 6-0 vs spread in Louisiana Tech games, as Tech is 0-4 as road dog. WAC home favorites are 7-2 against spread.

-- Fresno State won last three games by combined score of 117-41; they are 5-1 vs spread in '09, 3-0 as favorite. The last three Utah State games were decided by total of 8 points. USU is 3-1 as a road underdog.

-- Mississippi State lost four of last five games, losing 29-19 to Florida at home last week despite scoring two defensive TDs- Bulldogs have 8 INTs last three games. Kentucky is 0-3 when it allows 28+ points.

-- Former New Mexico coach Long is now San Diego State's DC; think he'll take it easy on winless Lobos team that has six losses by 17+ pts. Aztecs allowed 26+ points in four of their last five games.

-- Notre Dame is 1-5 as favorite this year; their last six games were won by seven or less points. Washington State covered four of last five tilts, losing last four by an average score of 39-11.

-- Houston won last three games by 7-28-23 points; four of its last five games stayed under total. Southern Miss won its last two games, scoring 79 points- they're 0-3 on road, losing by 7-13-2 points.

-- Wyoming won three of last four games, allowing total of 23 points in last two; they're 3-1-1 vs spread as an underdog. Utah won last four in a row, but needed OT last week; they're 2-4 as a favorite this season.

-- LSU played Auburn last week, has Alabama next, so they're holding stuff back here; Tigers are 2-3 as favorite, with four of six wins by 14 pts or less. Tulane lost last three games by 21-28-37 points (1-5 as dog).

-- Arkansas State is 1-4 vs I-A teams, but lost at unbeaten Iowa by slim three points; three of their four losses are by six or less points. Four of last five Louisville games stayed under total. Cards are 1-5 vs I-A foes.

-- FIU is 1-6 this year, allowing 41-42 points in its two home games (13 of last 48 on 3rd down). ULL is 0-2 as road underdog this year; favorites are 3-0 in their road games. Sun Belt home teams are 7-8 vs spread.

-- North Texas lost last six games, is 0-1 as favorite this year; they gave up 1,223 yards in last two games, are -9 in turnovers last four. Western Kentucky is 0-7, 2-5 vs spread, losing last three by 17-8-28 points.

-- Florida Atlantic scored 95 points in winning last two games after 0-4 start; they're 0-2 as a home favorite. Four of last five FAU games went over total. Middle Tennessee is 1-3 against spread as a dog this season.

-- Troy won last five games (4-1 vs spread); they're 3-0 as a home fave, winning by 13-24-24 points. UL-Monroe won three of last four games; they're 25 for last 48 on 3rd down. Sun Belt home favorites are 6-5.

(4) USC (6-1, 2-5 ATS) at (10) Oregon (6-1, 5-2 ATS)

The week’s lone matchup of Top 10 teams comes from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., where the Ducks host USC in an important battle that has Pac-10 and national-championship implications.

USC went down to the wire with Oregon State last week, eventually prevailing 42-36 for its fourth straight win but coming up way short as a 21-point home favorite to fall to 1-5 ATS in its last six. Freshman QB Matt Barkley passed for 202 yards and two scores, but was also intercepted twice, while the usually stout USC defense got ripped for 482 total yards, including 329 passing yards and three passing TDs. The Trojans gave up a total of two TDs and 43 points in their first five games, but have surrendered 63 points and eight touchdowns the last two weeks to Notre Dame and Oregon State.

Oregon ran its winning streak to six in a row with last Saturday’s 43-19 thumping of Washington, easily covering as a 10-point road favorite – the team’s fifth consecutive spread-cover. The Ducks, who had 259 rushing yards and forced three turnovers against Washington, have won their last four games by 39, 46, 14 and 24 points. Oregon is unbeaten in four home games (3-1 ATS).

The host is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three years in this rivalry, with USC cruising 44-10 as a 16-point favorite last year after the Ducks won 24-17 as a three-point chalk in Eugene in 2007. USC has won four of the last five meetings and is 10-5 ATS in the last 15, including 5-1 ATS since 2001 (3-1 ATS at Autzen). Finally, the favorite has covered the number in each of the last five and seven of the last eight.

After scoring just 18 points at Ohio State (loss) and 13 at Washington (win), the Trojans have erupted for an average of 33.8 ppg during their four-game winning streak. Also, prior to the games against Notre Dame and Oregon State, USC’s defense had given up 10 points or less in 13 of 18 contests, including yielding a field goal or less eight times. Pete Carroll’s stop unit still ranks 15th in scoring defense (15.1 ppg), 16th in total defense (291.7 ypg), fifth in rushing defense (79.9 ypg) and fourth in yards-per-carry (2.4).

Since mustering just 152 total yards (31 rushing) in a humiliating 19-8 loss at Boise State, Oregon has averaged 40 points and 404.2 total ypg, including a whopping 240.7 rushing ypg. The Ducks’ defense has played well all year, allowing just 16.7 points and 297.1 total yards per outing (119 rushing ypg).

In addition to its 1-5 ATS slump overall (all as a chalk), USC has now failed to cash in six of seven on the road, six of seven against Pac-10 opponents and 14 of 19 in October, and the Trojans are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 Pac-10 roadies. Conversely, to go along with their 5-0 ATS run overall, the Ducks are on pointspread surges of 16-8 at home (4-1 this year), 6-0 in Pac-10 play, 6-1 against winning teams, 13-5 as an underdog of three points or less, 9-3 as a home underdog and 8-0 after a SU victory.

The last four meetings in this rivalry have stayed low, and the under for USC is on runs of 21-9-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 33-16-2 in league play, 25-11-1 as a favorite, 11-4 in October and 6-1 on artificial turf. However, the over is 7-1-1 in Oregon’s last nine at home and 5-2 in their last seven Pac-10 contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON

(3) Texas (7-0, 2-4-1 ATS) at Oklahoma State (6-1, 3-2-1 ATS)

The third-ranked Longhorns go for their 12th consecutive victory overall and 12th straight win over Big 12 South rival Oklahoma State as they hit the highway for the third straight week with a visit to Stillwater, Okla.

After escaping with a 16-13 neutral-site win over archrival Oklahoma, Texas last week went to Missouri and throttled the Tigers 41-7 as a 13-point road favorite. The Longhorns raced out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and finished with 400 total yards to 173 for Missouri. QB Colt McCoy (26-for-31, 269 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had one of his better games of the season. Nine of Texas’ 11 victories during its current win streak have been double-digit romps.

The Cowboys have ripped off five straight wins (2-0-1 ATS) since suffering a stunning 45-35 home loss to Houston as a 15½-point favorite back on Sept. 12. Last week, Oklahoma State went to Baylor and rolled 34-7 as a 9½-point road chalk. Senior Zac Robinson (23-for-27, 250 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) led an offense that rolled up 445 total yards (195 rushing), while the Cowboys’ defense held Baylor to 284 yards (43 rushing).

Texas held off Oklahoma State 28-24 last year, but the Cowboys scored 10 unanswered fourth-quarter points to get the easy cover as an 11½-point road underdog. The Longhorns have won 11 consecutive meetings in this rivalry, going just 7-4 ATS (all as a favorite). The last two clashes were decided by three and four points.

The Longhorns defense is yielding just 13.6 points, 235.6 total yards and 41.6 rushing yards per game, figures that rank ninth, second and first in the nation, respectively. Also, Texas allows opposing backs to gain just 1.5 yards per carry, by far the best in the country. However, tonight, that defense runs up against a potent Oklahoma State offense that is putting up 37 points and 417.6 yards per outing (185.6 rushing ypg).

McCoy has tossed a surprising eight INTs this year, but otherwise is having an outstanding senior season, connecting on 71.7 percent of his throws for 258 ypg with 14 TDs. Robinson is also enjoying his final collegiate season, connecting at a 63.7 percent rate for 194 ypg with 11 TDs against just two INTs.

Going back to last year’s Fiesta Bowl win and non-cover against Ohio State, the Longhorns are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight overall (all as a favorite), and they’re 4-8-1 ATS since the middle of last season and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 when laying between 3½ and 10 points. But Texas is also 6-2 ATS in its last eight on the highway (5-2 ATS as a road favorite). Oklahoma State is on pointspread runs of 7-3 at home, 7-3-1 in Big 12 action, 9-1-1 in October, 7-2 after a spread-cover and 8-3-1 after a SU win. However, the Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last eight as an underdog, 0-4 ATS in their last four as a home pup and 7-22 ATS in their last 29 when catching between 3½ and 10 points.

The over is 16-7-1 in Texas’ last 24 on the highway, but otherwise it is on “under” runs of 5-1 overall (all as a favorite), 6-0 in conference and 4-0 in October. However, Oklahoma State carries “over” trends of 35-17 at home, 4-1 as a home ‘dog and 5-2 after SU win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS

Georgia (4-3, 2-5 ATS) vs. (1) Florida (7-0, 3-3 ATS)
(at Jacksonville)

Coming off three straight shaky SEC victories, the Gators look to regain their dominating form when they take on rival Georgia in the annual “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.

The Bulldogs have had two weeks to prep for this showdown, taking last week off after scoring a 34-10 rout of Vanderbilt and cashing as a 7½-point road favorite. That victory snapped a two-game SU and three-game ATS slide for Georgia, which averaged just 17.3 ppg during that three-game stretch against Arizona State (20-17 home win), LSU (20-13 home loss) and Tennessee (45-19 road loss).

A week after surviving a scare in a 23-20 home win over Arkansas as a 24-point home favorite, Florida went to Mississippi State last Saturday and struggled all night, pulling out a 29-19 win but again failing to cash, this time as a 21½-point road chalk. QB Tim Tebow had a poor outing at Mississippi State, going 12-for-22 for just 127 yards with no TDs and two INTs, both of which were returned by the Bulldogs for touchdowns, including one of 100 yards.

Despite struggling the last two weeks, Florida still owns the nation’s longest winning streak at 17 in a row, with 16 being double-digit routs, and it is 12-3 ATS in lined action during this stretch while allowing 21 points or less in every game.

Motivated by a post-touchdown end zone celebration in a 42-30 loss to Georgia as a seven-point favorite in 2007, the Gators got payback in a big way last year in Jacksonville, crushing the Bulldogs 49-10 as a 7½-point chalk. Georgia actually outgained Florida 398-373, but the Gators dominated on the ground (185-106) and Tebow (10-for-13, 154 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs; 39 rushing yards, 3 TDs) thoroughly outplayed future No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick Matthew Stafford (18-for-33, 265 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs).

The Gators have won nine of the last 11 in this rivalry, but the teams have split the cash the last eight years, with Georgia getting the money in two of the past three. The ‘dog is 5-3 ATS over this eight-year span.

In three games since returning from a concussion, Tebow is completing 63.5 percent of his passes but for only 172 passing ypg with two TDs and three INTs, and the Florida offense has averaged just 21.7 ppg over the three games.

Florida ranks in the top two nationally in scoring defense (10.1 ppg, tied for 2nd), total defense (229.6 ypg, 1st) and passing defense (135 ypg, 2nd). The Gators have also given up an NCAA-low two TD passes while nabbing 10 interceptions, and going back to the start of last season, Urban Meyer’s team has allowed more than 21 points just once in 21 games. By comparison, Georgia’s defense this season is getting torched for an average of 27.7 points, 365.6 total yards and 238.3 passing yards per game.

The Bulldogs have cashed in five of their last six neutral-site games, and they’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight as an underdog, 5-0 ATS in their last five when catching more than 10 points and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when coming off a bye in the regular season. On the downside, Mark Richt’s squad is in pointspread slumps of 4-12 overall, 3-9-1 in SEC play, 4-11 in October, 2-6 versus winning teams and 0-3-1 after a spread cover.

Florida’s two-game ATS slide comes on the heels of a 20-5 ATS run overall. The Gators remain on pointspread surges of 19-7 as a favorite, 12-4 in SEC action, 18-4 versus winning teams, 5-1 after a non-cover, 5-2 at neutral sites and 7-3 when laying more than 10 points.

Georgia is on “over” runs of 7-3 at neutral sites, 4-1 as a neutral-site ‘dog and 6-1 as a pup overall. The over is also 5-2 in Florida’s last seven neutral-site games, but otherwise the Gators carry “under” trends of 5-0 overall, 6-0 in conference, 5-0 against winning teams and 37-17 after a non-cover. Finally, the last two meetings in this rivalry went over the total following a 5-1 “under” run in this series. ½

ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA

(18) Miami, Fla. (5-2, 4-2 ATS) at Wake Forest (4-4, 2-5 ATS)

A week after a gut-wrenching overtime home loss to Clemson, Miami attempts to regroup as it hits the road for an ACC battle with the struggling Demon Deacons at Groves Stadium.

The Hurricanes took a three-game SU and ATS winning streak into last week’s battle with Clemson, but got caught in a high-scoring back-and-forth contest, eventually falling 40-37 as a four-point favorite. Miami gave up a game-tying field goal as regulation expired, then got the ball first and managed just a field goal, with Clemson answering quickly with a 26-yard TD pass to steal the win. The teams combined for 843 total yards, with Miami getting 433 of those (177 rushing). QB Jacory Harris offset a 256-yard, two-TD passing day with three picks.

Wake Forest followed up a disastrous 38-3 loss at Clemson as an 8½-point underdog with last week’s 13-10 setback at Navy as a 2½-point road favorite, its third straight non-cover. The Demon Deacons’ last three losses came on the road, but since a 24-21 season-opening home loss to Baylor, Wake Forest has won four straight in Winston-Salem (2-1 ATS in lined action). The Demon Deacons have scored 21, 24, 35, 30 and 42 points at Groves Stadium, compared with netting just 12.3 ppg on the road.

Miami has won and covered all three meetings with Wake Forest since joining the ACC in 2004, including last year’s ugly 16-10 win as a three-point home favorite. In their last trip to Winston-Salem, the Hurricanes rolled 47-17 as a 16-point favorite, but that came back in 2005.

The ‘Canes are still 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on the road, but otherwise they’re in pointspread nosedives of 2-5 in conference, 17-35-1 as a favorite, 4-9 as a road chalk and 1-10 when laying between 3½ and 10 points. Wake Forest has failed to cover in four of five overall, four of five in ACC action and four straight as an underdog, but Jim Grobe’s team is 6-2 ATS in its last eight at home, 8-4 ATS as a home pup since 2004 (5-1 last six) and 4-0 in the last four when catching between 3½ and 10 points at Groves Stadium.

The under is 5-2 in Miami’s last seven as a favorite, 5-1 in Wake’s last six as an underdog and 6-2 in Wake’s last seven in October.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

(24) Ole Miss (5-2, 4-2 ATS) at Auburn (5-3, 4-4 ATS)

Auburn will try to put the brakes on a three-game losing skid when it welcomes the Rebels to Jordan Hare Stadium for an SEC West battle.

Ole Miss followed up a 48-13 non-conference rout of UAB (23-point favorite) with last Saturday’s 30-17 victory over visiting Arkansas, cashing again, this time as a 6½-point chalk. QB Jevan Snead snapped out his slump in a big way, going 22-for-33 for 332 yards with two TDs and two INTs, while Dexter McCluster had a combined 260 rushing and receiving yards as the Rebels rolled up 553 total yards and held the Razorbacks to 299.

The Tigers’ season has gone south since starting the year with five straight wins (4-1 ATS), as they’ve dropped their last three games, all to SEC foes Arkansas (44-23 as a 1½-point road favorite), Kentucky (21-14 as a 13½-point home chalk) and LSU (31-10 as a 7½-point road underdog). In last week’s loss to LSU, Auburn was pushed all over the field as it got outgained 376-193 and committed three turnovers.

Mississippi snapped a four-game losing skid to Auburn exactly one year ago, winning 17-7 as a 6½-point home favorite. The Rebels have cashed in each of the last three meetings after the Tigers had gone 5-1 ATS in this rivalry to start this decade. Finally, the visitor has covered in nine of the last 13 in this rivalry.

The Rebels are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games (2-1 ATS this year on the highway), and they’re riding additional pointspread surges of 19-7 overall, 5-2 in SEC play, 23-11 in October, 9-4 versus teams with a winning record and 7-1 as a favorite. However, Houston Nutt’s team has failed to cover in nine of 12 as a road chalk, including five of its last six on the highway when giving between 3½ and 10 points.

In addition to going 1-4 ATS in its last five, Auburn is in pointspread dips of 3-10 in SEC action, 1-7 in October, 0-7 after a SU defeat, 5-16 after a non-cover and 2-5 as an underdog.

It’s been all “unders” for Ole Miss lately, including 4-1 overall, 5-2 on the road, 38-17 in league play, 3-1 as a favorite and 6-0 as a chalk of 3½ to 10 points. Meanwhile, the Tigers have topped the total in four of five at Jordan Hare, but otherwise they’re on “under” runs of 6-2 against the SEC, 21-7 as a ‘dog, 7-2 as a home pup and 4-0 both after SU and ATS loss. Finally, four of the last five Ole Miss-Auburn meetings at Jordan Hare have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OLE MISS and UNDER

California (5-2, 3-3 ATS) at Arizona State (4-3, 3-3 ATS)

California shoots for its third straight Pac-10 victory when it travels to Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Ariz., for a battle with Arizona State.

Since getting crushed by Oregon (road) and USC (home) by a combined score of 72-6, the Bears have bounced back with a pair of impressive victories over UCLA (45-26) and Washington State (49-17). Although Cal covered easily as a 3½-point road favorite at UCLA, it came up short as a 35½-point home chalk last week despite jumping out to a 35-3 lead and finishing with 559 total yards (309 rushing) and allowing 440 total yards (55 rushing). The Bears are averaging 48 ppg in their victories, with all five being double-digit blowouts.

Arizona State’s two-game winning streak ended with a thud last Saturday at Stanford, falling 33-14 to the Cardinal as a 6½-point road underdog. The Sun Devils, who have failed to cover in three of their last four overall, got outgained 473-290 at Stanford (237-129 on the ground).

Cal topped the Sun Devils 24-14 last October, barely covering as a 9½-point home favorite to improve to 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings. However, in their last trip to the desert, the Bears fell 31-20 as a three-point road underdog, and the home team (and favorite) has won and covered the last four meetings dating to 2004. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last nine series battles.

The Bears rank 12th in the nation in rushing at 216 yards per game (5.7 per carry), but they’re facing an Arizona State defense that yields just 83.4 ypg on the ground and 2.7 ypc, which ranks sixth and eighth in the country, respectively.

Cal is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a road chalk, but the Bears are also on positive pointspread rolls of 7-3 as a favorite, 16-4 when laying between 3½ and 10 points and 5-1 after a non-cover. The Sun Devils are mired in ATS funks of 3-7 as an underdog and 0-3 as a home ‘dog under coach Dennis Erickson, plus 1-11 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points, 1-4 in Pac-10 play, 1-4 in October, 2-7 after a SU loss and 3-9 against winning teams.

The Bears are on “over” streaks of 7-3 overall, 6-2 on the road, 4-1 as a favorite and 5-2 in conference play. Conversely, it’s been all “unders” for ASU lately, including 24-8 overall, 4-1 at home, 7-0 in conference, 6-1 as an underdog, 15-5-2 in October and 6-0 after a non-cover. Finally, three of the last four in this rivalry have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CAL

Kansas State (5-3, 3-3 ATS) at (22) Oklahoma (4-3, 2-3-1 ATS)

Kansas State, which has won two in a row and surprisingly sits atop the Big 12 North division, faces a difficult test when it travels to Memorial Stadium for a league contest against the Sooners.

The Wildcats followed up an eye-popping 62-14 rout of Texas A&M as a five-point underdog with last Saturday’s 20-6 thumping of Colorado as a four-point home chalk. After getting outgained 739-284 in a 66-14 loss at Texas Tech three weeks ago, Kansas State has come back to out-gain its last two opponents by a combined 163 yards. The Wildcats are undefeated through four home games (2-0 ATS vs. lined competition), but 1-3 SU and ATS on the road, where they average 12.7 ppg and allow 35.3 ppg.

Oklahoma bounced back from a difficult 16-13 loss to third-ranked Texas with last week’s 35-13 destruction of Kansas as an eight-point road favorite. The Sooners have alternated SU wins and losses in their last five outings, and while their three defeats this year were by a total of five points, their four wins have come by a combined score 177-20. OU has won 27 consecutive home games (18-8-1 ATS).

These teams played a record first half against each other last October, with Oklahoma taking a 55-28 lead into the break, eventually winning 58-35 and covering as an 18-point road favorite. The teams combined for 1,078 total yards, with the Sooners gaining 273 of 528 yards on the ground and K-State picking up 486 of 550 yards through the air. Oklahoma has won six of seven meetings this decade, including the last three in a row, but the teams are 3-3-1 ATS in this stretch, with the underdog going 4-2-1 ATS. Going back to 1997, the visitor is 6-2-1 ATS in this series, with the Wildcats going 3-1-1 ATS in their last four trips to Memorial Stadium.

Kansas State has cashed in three of four overall and eight of 11 in October, but they’re 3-9 ATS in their last 12 against opponents that have a winning record. The Sooners are on ATS streaks of 8-4-1 overall, 8-3 as a favorite, 7-1-1- in Big 12 play, 19-8-1 as a favorite of more than 10 points, 13-5-1 as a home chalk in that range and 7-3-1 against winning clubs.

The under is 4-2 in the Wildcats’ last seven overall and 4-1 in their last five on the road, but they’re also on “over” stretches of 28-11 in Big 12 play, 21-8 as an underdog, 14-5 as a road pup and 8-3 in October. The over is also 9-3 in Oklahoma’s last 12 league games, but otherwise the Sooners are riding “under” streaks of 7-0 overall (6-0 this year), 3-0 at home and 6-0 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

(12) Penn State (7-1, 3-4 ATS) at Northwestern (5-3, 2-5 ATS)

Fresh off its fourth straight double-digit blowout victory, Penn State takes to the road for the second week in a row for a Big Ten battle with the Wildcats at Ryan Field.

The Nittany Lions went to Michigan last week and allowed a touchdown on the Wolverines’ opening possession, then took the game over from there, scoring 35 of the next 38 points to win 35-10 as a 3½-point road favorite. Since getting upset 21-10 by Iowa as a 9½-point home favorite on Sept. 26, Penn State has won four in a row (3-0 ATS in lined games) by a combined score of 142-30, outgaining all four opponents by a combined 939 yards. Take away the loss to Iowa, and the Nittany Lions have won seven games by an average of 23 ppg (33.1-10.1)

Northwestern rallied from a 28-3 deficit to Indiana last week and escaped with a 29-28 victory, kicking the game-winning 19-yard field goal with 21 seconds left. The Wildcats, who outgained Indiana 474-305, won for the third time in their last four games, but failed to cover as a 4½-point home favorite, falling to 2-5 ATS on the season (0-4 ATS at home, all as a favorite).

The underdog has covered in all seven of Northwestern’s games this season, and the ‘dog got the money in Penn State’s first four contests before the Lions came back to win and cover their last three lined outings as a favorite.

Penn State has won two in a row and seven of the last nine in this rivalry, including last year’s 33-7 rout as a 20-point home chalk, ending the Wildcats’ 3-0 ATS run in this series. Five of the last eight head-to-head battles have been decided by 10 points or less, and the home team is on an 8-2 ATS roll, with Northwestern going 4-1 ATS in the last five at Ryan Field.

Not only have the Nittany Lions cashed in three straight lined games overall, but they’re also on pointspread surges of 6-2-1 on the road, 4-1 in Big Ten action, 6-1-1 as a road favorite, 5-0-1 when laying more than 10 points on the road and 14-4-2 in October. Northwestern has cashed in five straight and seven of nine as a ‘dog, but in addition to going 2-5 ATS this year (0-4 ATS at home), the ‘Cats are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games after a SU victory.

The under is 6-1 in Penn State’s games this year (all as a favorite), including 4-0 as a double-digit chalk, and the under for Northwestern is on runs of 7-3 overall, 4-1 in October and 5-0 as an underdog. Also, three of the last four in this series have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PENN STATE and UNDER

Kansas (5-2, 2-4 ATS) at Texas Tech (5-3, 4-3 ATS)

Two Big 12 teams coming off blowout conference losses try to get back on track at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, where the Red Raiders host Kansas.

The Jayhawks have followed up a seven-game winning streak with consecutive conference losses at Colorado (34-30 as an eight-point road favorite) and Oklahoma (35-13 as an eight-point home underdog), and they’ve now failed to cover in four straight games. After outgaining seven consecutive opponents, Kansas ended up on the short end of a 337-305 yardage discrepancy against Oklahoma, and QB Todd Reesing (22-for-42, 224 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs) had a miserable day against the Sooners’ defense.

Texas Tech went off as a 21½-point home favorite last week against Texas A&M and proceeded to get steamrolled 52-30, ending a three-game overall and eight-game home winning streak. QB Taylor Potts got picked off twice and the Red Raiders also lost three fumbles, while the defense surrendered 559 total yards, including 321 on the ground.

Texas Tech crushed the Jayhawks 63-21 as a two-point road favorite last year, finishing with a 556-315 edge in total offense. The Red Raiders have won 10 of 11 meetings by an average of 14 ppg, including the last three in a row (1-2 ATS). Prior to last year’s contest, the ‘dog had covered in four straight series meetings, and the visitor is 4-1 ATS in the last five.

These teams feature two of the top passing attacks in the country. Kansas averages 329.3 ypg through the air (7.9 yards per pass attempt), which actually is dwarfed by Tech’s NCAA-best 419 passing ypg (8.2 yards per pass attempt). While Reesing has passed for 2,203 yards (65 percent completion rate) with 15 TDs and seven INTs, the Red Raiders’ QB duo of Potts (67 percent, 2,127 yards) and Steven Sheffield (74.5 percent, 1,014 yards) have combined for 27 TD tosses and 10 picks.

In addition to its current 0-4 ATS slump, Kansas is 1-4 ATS in its last five as an underdog and 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games, but the Jayhawks have covered in 12 of their last 14 road games and five of six as a road pup. Meanwhile, going back to November 2006, Texas Tech is 18-2 SU at home and the Red Raiders are 28-8-1 ATS in their last 37 after a SU defeat, but they’re also 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a favorite and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 when laying 3½ to 10 points.

Kansas is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-1 on the road, 7-2 in Big 12 action, 4-1 in October and 5-2 as a ‘dog. The over is also on several streaks for Texas Tech, including 10-4 overall, 5-0 at home, 7-3 in conference and 5-1 in October

ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS TECH and OVER

(21) South Carolina (6-2, 5-2 ATS) at Tennessee (3-4, 4-3 ATS)

Tennessee tries to bounce back from a near-miss at top-ranked Alabama when it returns to Neyland Stadium for an SEC East clash with the Gamecocks.

South Carolina barely held off Vanderbilt last Saturday, winning 14-10 but never threatening to cover as a 13½-point home favorite. Despite outgaining the Commodores 431-273, the Gamecocks needed a 43-yard fourth-quarter TD pass by Stephen Garcia to erase a 10-7 deficit in a game in which neither team committed a turnover. South Carolina has won five of its last six – only setback being a 20-6 loss at Alabama as an 18-point road ‘dog – but has failed to cover in two of it last three lined games, with the underdog and road team going 3-0 ATS in this stretch.

The Volunteers gave No. 1 Alabama all it could handle last week, but two blocked field goals in the fourth quarter – including one on the final play of the game – proved the difference as Tennessee lost 12-10 but easily covered the 14-point spread. The Vols, who have alternated wins and losses in their last five games (3-2 ATS), actually outgained the Crimson Tide 341-256 and allowed just four field goals. The last time Tennessee took the field at Neyland Stadium, it hammered Georgia 45-19 as a one-point underdog, putting up 472 yards of total offense.

South Carolina had no trouble with the Vols last year, winning 27-6 as a six-point home chalk, just the second win for the ‘Cocks in their last 16 meetings with Tennessee. The favorite is 3-0 SU and ATS the past three years in this series, and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last five clashes. Also, the visitor is on a 10-1-1 ATS roll in this rivalry, with South Carolina going 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to Knoxville.

The Gamecocks are on ATS upticks of 5-2 on the road, 10-4 as a road pup, 4-0 as an underdog anywhere (3-0 this year) and 5-1 when catching between 3½ and 10 points. Tennessee has covered in five of six SEC games, but otherwise is in pointspread funks of 3-7 as a favorite, 9-21 as a home chalk and 3-8-2 when giving between 3½ and 10 points.

The over is 6-2-1 in South Carolina’s last nine road games, but the under is 4-1 in its last five as an underdog. Tennessee is on “under” rolls of 20-5-1 overall, 33-16-3 at home, 19-7-1 in SEC games, 7-1 in October and 10-3-1 as a favorite. Finally, six of the last eight meetings between these schools have stayed low, and four of the last five in Tennessee have featured 43 total points or fewer.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA and UNDER

Southern Miss (5-3, 3-4 ATS) at (15) Houston (6-1, 5-1 ATS)

In a possible preview of the Conference USA championship game in December, streaking Houston aims for its fourth consecutive win overall and its 13th straight home victory when it entertains the Golden Eagles, who have won two in a row.

Southern Miss followed up a three-game losing skid (1-2 ATS) – all on the road – with back-to-back blowout home wins over Memphis (36-16 as a 14-point favorite) and Tulane (43-6 as a 21-point chalk). Last week versus Tulane, the Golden Eagles gained 253 of their 380 total yards on the ground, while allowing just 212 total yards (54 rushing). Southern Miss has averaged 38.8 ppg in its five wins (all at home) but just 22.7 ppg in three defeats (all on the road), and the Eagles’ defense (30 ppg, 372 total ypg, 168 rushing ypg) has struggled on the highway.

Houston returned from a three-game road trip and smacked SMU 38-15 as a 16½-point home favorite last week to improve to 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three. Since a stunning 58-41 loss at UTEP on Oct. 3, the Cougars have allowed a total of 55 points (18.3 ppg) during their three-game winning streak. With standout QB Case Keenum (70.1 percent, 390.6 ypg, 20 TDs, 4 INTs) at the controls, Houston fields the nation’s second-most lethal passing attack at 403.1 passing ypg, and its 21 TD passes is tied for second nationally.

These teams last met in the 2006 Conference USA title game on Houston’s home field, and the Cougars won 34-20 as a five-point chalk. The host has won four in a row in this rivalry, with Houston going 3-1 ATS (2-0 ATS at home). Also the home team has covered in eight of the past 10 meetings, with the favorite going 5-1 ATS in the last six.

Southern Miss is 2-7 ATS in its last nine in October, but otherwise is on pointspread surges of 10-4 on the road, 6-2 in C-USA games, 5-2 as a ‘dog, 4-1 a road pup and 6-2 after a SU win. The Cougars carry positive ATS streaks of 6-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 4-1 as a home chalk and 5-1 against an opponent with a winning record.

For the Golden Eagles, the under is on stretches of 4-0 overall, 4-1 on the road, 7-0 in league action and 7-1 when playing on grass. Similarly, Houston is on “under” rolls of 4-1-1 overall, 8-3 at home, 4-1 as a home chalk and 4-0 on grass. However, the last two clashes in this rivalry have hurdled the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Nerve-Racking-Finishes
By SportsPic

Notre Dame has been living on the edge, playing six consecutive games that have come down to final minutes including last weeks 20-16 victory over Boston College in which linebacker Brian Smith saved the day picking off a pass by Dave Shinskie with 1:48 left. The close calls have cost Irish backers dearly with the squad going 1-5 against-the-number over the span. Cash draining Irish must now lay -28 in a non-conference clash with Washington State Cougars on neutral site at the Alamodome in San Antonio. With the current Irish history at the betting window, knowing they're 5-16 ATS laying 21.5 to 31 points, 1-5 ATS last six in non-conference games and that Notre Dame won the only previous meeting with Washington State by a 29-26 final in overtime back in 2003 makes one jittery of having the betting account depleted again. However, Notre Dame is facing one of the nation's worst defenses. Opponents are racking up 37.0 PPG on 499.6 total yards against Washington State and Cougars fail miserably on the offensive end scoring 15.1 PPG on 293.7 total yards. Expect QB Clausen and his main receiver Tate to put up some huge numbers against a pass defense being shredded for 282.4 PYG and expect ND's defense doing a number on WSU's patchwork offensive line. Lay the lumber, Irish will grab a rare point-spread cover against a Cougar squad that's suffered three lopsided defeats on the road this season losing by an average 33.0 PPG and spanked by 34.2 PPG the past nine on the highway.

Game of the day: USC at Oregon
By Nick Parsons

Bettors are in for a treat when the No. 4 USC Trojans (6-1 2-5 ATS) visit the No. 12 Oregon Ducks (6-1 5-2 ATS) on Halloween night.

Lesser teams might have faltered with the early horrors experienced by both teams. Oregon's season, of course, began with a knockout punch and USC slipped to a mediocre Washington squad.

Since then, they have stayed clear of the loss column, making their matchup in Eugene one of the most important games of the year .

From LeGarrette to LaMichael

Before the season, big things were expected from SR RB LeGarrette Blount. His antics at the end of the Boise State loss and eventual suspension were not part of these expectations.

Fortunately for Oregon, LaMichael James came to the rescue. The redshirt freshman has fit in nicely in the starting role having rushed for 150 plus yards in three games this year. In his last two games, James rushed for a total of 306 yards averaging 8.7 yards per carry against UCLA and Washington.

This will be the most talented defense that James has encountered this year, with USC ranked fifth in the nation in rush defense, allowing only 79.9 yards per game.

Second-half slide

No one doubts the talent of the Trojans’ defense but some weaknesses were exposed in their last two games. Against Notre Dame, they allowed 27 points and last week versus Oregon State they gave up 36. What is more telling, however, is the fact that 48 of these points came in the second half.

The Irish and Beavers seemed to adjust at the half to USC's defensive gameplan, which kept both games closer than they should have been. Sophomore linebacker Chris Galippo admitted that "tackling was a big deal against Oregon State" and that the team will be going "back to the basics this week".

After dealing with a pro-style offense the last two weeks, the Trojans will change up their gameplan for Oregon's spread. Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli poses a threat on the ground having already rushed for seven TDs this year. But the Trojan D has done well this year against fleet-footed QBs as illustrated in their game versus Ohio State.

The Trojans’ linebacker corps will be busy and need to limit the impact of James. A close eye will also have to be kept on Masoli's favorite target, tight end Ed Dickson. Dickson's season is highlighted by a 148-yard, three-TD performances against Cal.

Barkley vs. Autzen

One has to either hate or love the laidback attitude of Matt Barkley who said that "the energy is going to be awesome(in Eugene) and it's going to be a cool atmosphere, especially on Halloween night."

But regardless of what he or anyone says, the freshman QB has lived up to the hype. He is off to a 6-0 record as a starter with two of those wins on the road against Ohio State and Notre Dame.

Tradition aside, Autzen is a different entity from the Horseshoe or Notre Dame Stadium. During the Trojan's last visit in 2007, the Ducks won 24-17 and the crowd noise level was recorded at 127.2 decibels.

Offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates is fully aware of the difficulty of playing in Autzen and if Barkley runs into early trouble, the emphasis will be on the run.

Joe McKnight and Allen Bradford are not quite LenDale White and Reggie Bush, but they do present a big problem to this Oregon defense, which has overachieved this year.

Bradford had a breakthrough game last week rushing for 147 yards and two TDs.

Ducks defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti has done a great job with his defense allowing only 16.7 points per game and this comes after losing a couple of key players in their secondary due to injury.

The Ducks have had success at pressuring the QB but have done so mostly on plays where they sent five or six guys on the rush, trusting their secondary in single-man coverage.

But with a talented offensive line and NFL caliber threats in both the air and the ground, Aliotti will have to adjust his defensive gameplan and think of more creative ways for the front four to get to Barkley.

Quick notes

- Oregon QB Masoli is still hampered a bit by a knee injury. “I’m giving myself a B for the knee,” Masoli said. The injured knee, however, did not impact his performance in the Duck's 43-19 victory over Washington
- USC TE Anthony McCoy is not expected to play (ankle sprain)
- USC FB Stanley Havili is not expect to play either, D.J. Shoemate will start in his place
- ESPN Gameday crew will be on site in Eugene

The line

The spread has remained steady all week at -3 in favor of the visiting Trojans. The favorite has won and covered in the last four games in this series.

Last year, USC was a 16-point favorite at home and it easily covered, winning 44-10. The last the time these two played in Eugene, the Ducks were 2-point favorites and they won 24-17. The game came down to a last-second interception thrown by a then-inexperienced Mark Sanchez.

At 2-5 ATS USC hasn't been the greatest cover team, but this is the lowest number that they have dealt with in the last two years. The lowest number prior to this was earlier this year against Cal. The Trojans were -4.5 favorites and blew out the Golden Bears 30-3 on prime time TV

The Ducks are 5-2 ATS and have won straight up, the last four of six against USC at Autzen. With the spread so low, Oregon backers may find value in the moneyline which sits at +140. Also with USC's current slide in the second half, bettors may want to look into a second-half bet if the number is high enough.

The total for the game sits at 47 and has experienced only slight half point movements both ways. The previous four games in this series have gone under the total, but last year's total was sharp with the 44-10 game only going under the line of 56 by only two points.

USC is 3-4 over/under this year, with its last two games against Notre Dame and Oregon State going over by a combined average of 18.5 points.

USC has always come up big against elite non-conference teams, but it’s when the Trojans encounter a tough conference foe on the road where trouble begins. Last year it was Oregon State and two years ago it was Ducks in Eugene, but this is a USC team that hasn't been to a national title in a couple years and it will be ready for the Halloween night crowd.

Trick or Treat Betting College Football
By Doug Upstone

The last day of wagering on college student-athletes in October is here and it could either be a ghoulish experience or one that fills your bag with plenty of treats (cash). Some of the costumes for the Worlds Largest Cocktail Party should be enjoyable and will Tim Tebow get the Florida offense back on track against rival Georgia. Oklahoma State and Oregon are both home and with upset victories, can change the order of power in the BCS standings below the top two. Virginia Techs loss gives Miami a chance to still win the ACC Coastal and they travel to Wake Forest off disappointing overtime defeat. If Central Michigan can trick Boston College, they gain stature for themselves as well as the MAC. Heres hoping your bag is stuffed with goodies.

Florida (-14.5, 48) vs. Georgia

Though this years Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail party wont carry the same panache as the last couple, it is no less important to its participants. Florida (7-0. 3-3 ATS) is ranked first in the BCS and doesn have the same offensive power of a year ago. Even after supplying misfortune on Mississippi State 29-19, coach Urban Meyer is far from pleased. We kind of operate around here on urgency. Thats not something were ashamed of, Meyer said recently. Were not playing perfect, and there are times were not playing very good at all, Meyer elaborated. Were not on the same planet statistically as last year. Im not happy where we are at right now. Fortunately, Meyer and Florida can fall back on a superb stop unit that leads the SEC in about every statistic and is the best nationally in total defense. Under coach Meyer, the Gators are 12-1 (7-5-1 ATS) against their so-called Big Three opponents, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida State. Florida is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Two years ago, coach Mark Richt used a little chicanery to fire up his Georgia (4-3, 2-5 ATS) squad and it worked with 42-30 upset as touchdown underdogs. He might need something even crazier, since nobody will compare this Bulldogs team talent-wise to that club. After falling to LSU and Tennessee, coach Richt went back to basics and it paid off against Vanderbilt with 34-10 road win. The Bulldogs were crisper offensively than they had been since Arkansas contest. The offensive line fired off the ball and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo left the press box to be more involved with QB Joe Cox. Georgia is 10-5-1 ATS in neutral site contests against ranked teams the last decade and 17-6 ATS away from home after a bye week.

Florida is 16-3 and 12-6-1 ATS the last 19 years in this match, with the favorite 2-5-1 against the number. The SU winner is 23-3-1 ATS since 1982 in this rivalry.

Central Michigan (+5.5, 50.5) at Boston College

Both teams have three conference games remaining and are true contenders to play in respective league championship tilts. They take time out from strenuous slate and meet in an engaging nonconference contest.

Central Michigan (7-1, 6-1 ATS) is atop of the MAC West standings, going after third league title in four years. It was actually an opening game visit by Boston College in 2006 that turned the Chippewas fortunes. Starting quarterback Brian Brunner was injured on the second play of the game and a plucky freshman named Dan LeFevour came in and battled the Eagles in 31-24 loss as 11-point home underdogs. That set the program is a winning direction and it hasnt stopped yet. Central Michigan is 7-0 (5-1 ATS) since opening loss at Arizona 19-6. What coach Butch Jones hopes to conceal is secondary that can be beaten by accurate thrower. The Chippewas are 11-13-1 ATS as road underdogs the since 2003, but 5-1 ATS the last two years. Additionally, Central Michigan is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing on the road over the last three seasons.

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Boston College (5-3, 5-2 ATS) losing their head coach after strife with university. The Eagles gave the head coaching job to Frank Spaziani out of loyalty and necessity. The long time assistant figured to have .500 season at best, instead he built resilient squad. A dismal loss at Clemson was followed up with home win over Wake Forest. A Virginia Tech 48-14 thrashing led to nailing N.C. State 52-20, as running back Montel Harris rushed for 264 yards. B.C.s five turnovers cost them win at South Bend last Saturday and the Eagles are 5-9-1 ATS since 1992 after Notre Dame.

Boston College is 8-0 and 5-2-1 ATS against MAC teams and Central Michigan is 1-7-1 ATS facing non-Big Ten BCS schools on the road. The Chippewas are 11-0 UNDER after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last outing.

Miami (-7, 51) at Wake Forest

Miami (5-2, 4-3 ATS) plays their second ACC road contest of the season in Winston-Salem against Wake Forest. The Hurricanes survived the most arduous schedule to start the season among the 120 FBS schools and has their sights set on ACC Coastal crown. Quarterback Jacory Harris continues to be one of the best distributors of the pigskin (29th nationally), hitting seven or more receivers most outings. The defense is improving, as younger players like linebacker Sean Spence (now doubtful) and strong safety Ray Ray Armstrong gain experience and confidence. The biggest weakness all season for Miami has been the special teams that continually have breakdowns, leaving the Canes on the losing end of field position swaps. Miami has covered last five of six October assignments and are 18-7 ATS when they score 29 to 35 points.

Wake Forest (4-4, 2-5 ATS) will at least be home for this daunting task. The Demon Deacons still have faint hopes of winning a second ACC Atlantic title and figure to have to win out even to have a chance. Wake Forest is also seeking a fourth consecutive winning season under coach Jim Grobe, with the one constant besides the coach being signal caller Riley Skinner. The fortunes of the Deacons are on the right arm of the senior quarterback. When he has time to throw or rollout, Wake Forest easily can score close to or over 30 points. But when Skinner is pressured and scrambling for his life and receivers stand flat-footed watching, the 13 points totaled in losses to Clemson and Navy is not unexpected. The Demon Deacons are 7-4 ATS off non-ACC action.

Since Miami joined the ACC, the Hurricanes are 3-0 SU and ATS against Wake Forest. The official line could carry a lot of weight with the Deacons 7-2 ATS as home underdog to a ranked opponent .

Michigan State (-3.5, 46) at Minnesota

After the stomach-turning 15-13 loss to Iowa on the last play, Michigan State (4-4, 3-4 ATS) is playing for second place in the Big Ten and Capitol One Bowl bid. The Spartans have just three remaining conference clashes and was lucky to bypass Ohio State this season. They will take on Penn State at home, which could be very important contest as the season plays out. First up is Minnesota and Michigan State is 3-5 and 2-6 ATS against the Golden Gophers. Coach Mark Dantonio is blessed having two quarterbacks that can really play and with both being injured at various points, the other has stepped in and played admirably. Michigan State is 12-3 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 or less points.

Minnesota (4-4, 3-5 ATS) is off successive taxing road bouts at Penn State and Ohio State and is seeking to return to winners circle. The Gophers offense has been fluctuating all season between fair and bad, with the latter more prevalent lately. Quarterback Adam Weber has not succeeded without a running game (last in Big Ten) and opponents have double-teamed star receiver Eric Decker, choking off offensive production. The offensive line never gelled, which focused greater attention on the two Minnesota playmakers. Now with Decker out, the situation becomes even dicier. This has led Minnesota backers to fustigate, wondering when 6-foot-4 freshman quarterback MarQueis Gray starts seeing extended playing time. With Michigan State conceding just 3.1 yards per carry, the Golden Gophers are 4-13 ATS in home games versus rushing defenses allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards a try.

These teams have not played since 2006 and Minnesota is 8-16 ATS as single digit Big Ten underdog. Prior to the Gophers winning and covering as favorites in 2005-06, the underdog had been 6-0 ATS. Michigan State will give undivided attention, with only Western Michigan from the MAC next foe. The Spartans have collected handsomely with 8-3 ATS Big Ten road record.

Texas (-9.5, 53) at Oklahoma State

It has been a different year in the Big 12, especially compared to last season. All the offensive fireworks and exceptional individual performances have been replaced by injuries to key players and many of the same players just off-kilter. Among them is quarterback Colt McCoy, who keeps being reported in Longhorn blogs as ready to have sensational performance (finally against Missouri he did). While he certainly could break loose the rest of the year, this is different Texas (7-0, 2-4-1 ATS) team. McCoy, like many quarterbacks that came into the season with high expectations, has played with less abandon, carrying the weight of the team. Again, no real running game has emerged (5th in Big 12) and defensive coaches have made a concerted effort not to let McCoy run loose out of the pocket. Fortunately, the Texas defense has been a constant all year (No.2 in total defense) and it might well be that side of the ball that carries the Longhorns to Big 12 title and possibly other areas in 2009. Texas is 6-2 ATS in the second of two true road games and the Horns are 29-12 ATS off a road win against a conference rival.

Oklahoma State (6-1, 4-2-1 ATS) is another Big 12 team that hasnt been right all year. The Cowboys offense doesnt appear to be that different, scoring 37 points per game compared to 40.8 in 2008. However the Okie State power trio has not been together. Running back Kendall Hunter is still nursing an ankle/foot injury and wide receiver Dez Bryant has been suspended by the NCAA. This has left the burden on quarterback Zac Robinson, who struggled in the early part of the year, but has been sharp since October started. Oklahoma State cant continue to be the most penalized team in the country (9.4 per game as press time) if they want to be a true national power. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS after three or more consecutive straight up wins over the last two seasons.

This is Oklahoma States chance to steal the thunder. If they can upset Texas, the world will be looking in on Stillwater and if would win out in the Big 12, they are the South Division champs. History is not on their side, with the Cowboys are 0-10 and 3-6-1 ATS against Texas and 4-19 and 6-15-2 ATS against ranked teams.

USC (-3, 47) at Oregon

The Oregon Ducks (6-1, 5-2 ATS) have rare opportunity in the Pac-10 since Pete Carroll took over as the USC head coach. With a win, Oregon controls their destiny. Besides the fact of being at home, the Ducks defense has been something to quack about. After a lumbering start (27.3PPG in first three contests), coach Chip Kellys defense has permitted just 38 points in their last four outings and is second in the Pac-10 in points allowed (16.7) and 19th in the country in yards allowed (297.1). In order to beat USC, the defense has to limit big plays and make the Trojans score field goals. Creating seams for freshman RB LaMichael James is imperative, since that opens up passing lanes for QB Jeremiah Masoli. The Ducks signal caller has to play under control and contain emotions. His accuracy as a passer will be every bit as important as what he does with his legs. Oregon is 23-10 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging eight or more passing yards per attempt.

The Trojans (6-1, 2-5 ATS) took care of one Oregon state university last week 42-36 and goes for the sweep in Eugene. It is starting to look like the movie Groundhog with USC gathering steam as November approaches. The defense is one of the finest in the country, though shaky against the pass the last two weeks in allowing 614 yards. USC coaches are opening the playbook more each week as quarterback Matt Barkleys confidence soars. Look for USC to pressure Oregon with its relentless pass rushers and All-American safety Taylor Mays to take away Masolis favorite target TE Ed Dickson. USC is 9-4 ATS in the first of two road games.

This is Oregons time and they know, but how will they perform against USC team built for these moments? Oregon is 5-10 ATS vs. USC in last 15 meetings, with the favorite having covered seven of last eight. The road team is 8-4 ATS since 1993.

Tips and Trends

USC at Oregon

USC (-3, O/U 47): USC has lost its last three games in the state of Oregon, one in Eugene against Oregon and twice in Corvallis, home of Oregon State. The Trojans rolled past Oregon, 44-10, last season. However, they lost in their last trip to Autzen Stadium two years ago, 24-17. That’s the only time the Ducks have beaten the Trojans during the past five meetings. USC allowed an average of 8.6 points and 238.6 yards during its first five games this season. In their last two games, though, against Oregon State and Notre Dame, the Trojans have surrendered a combined 63 points and 849 yards. Freshman USC quarterback Matt Barkley has thrown at least one interception in each of his last three games. Oregon is tied for the Pac-10 lead in turnovers with 19. The Trojans are 1-6 against the spread the past seven times they’ve been road chalk.

The Under is 21-9-1 in the Trojans’ last 31 games.
The Under is 25-11-1 in USC’s last 37 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - Tight end Anthony McCoy (knee) is questionable.
Fullback Stanley Havili (shoulder) is questionable.
Running back Stafon Johnson (throat) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 25

Oregon: The 10th-ranked Ducks are riding a six-game winning streak following an opening-game home loss to Boise State. Oregon’s defense has held three of its last four opponents to 211 yards or fewer. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli returned last week after missing the Oct. 10 win against UCLA and led the Ducks to a 43-19 victory over Washington. Masoli threw for 157 yards, rushed for 54 yards and accounted for three touchdowns. Oregon is averaging 45.7 points and 484.7 yards in the last three games Masoli has played. LaMichael James has rushed for 657 yards and scored six touchdowns in his last five games. James totaled 154 yards and two touchdowns in the victory against Washington. The Ducks have covered in their last five games. They are 9-3 against the spread as a home underdog. Oregon has covered in its last six Pac-10 Conference matchups.

The Over is 7-1-1 in Oregon’s last nine home contests.
The last 4 in this series have gone Under the total.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 22 (UNDER - Total of the Day)