NCAAF News and Notes Saturday 11/13

Home Cooked and Well Done
By Cajun Sports

Last week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week qualified Louisville Cardinals (+6) over the Syracuse Orange. Our system came through as the Cardinals defeated the Orange outright 28 to 20 on Saturday. This win improved the systems record to a powerful 22-0 ATS since 1998.

Overtime contests are the theme for this week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football Power System of the Week. Overtime can help produce momentum when a team wins in the OT period when installed as an underdog, this week’s system looks at overtime teams that lost in the OT period as a favorite and this has a negative effect on their play the following week.

SYSTEM: In Games 2-11, play AGAINST a Saturday conference home favorite of 3+ points off a favorite OT SU loss vs. an opponent not off a conference home SU win as a favorite of 8+ points. This system is 16-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 15.8 points per game since 1998.

This system was last active in 2008 with two games during that season. The first was on September 27 when East Carolina was a 10.5 point home favorite over Houston and proceeded to lose straight up 41 to 24. The second time was on October 11 when Fresno State was a 32.5 point home favorite over Idaho and won the game 45 to 32 failing to cover the spread by 19.5 points.

Home favorites that qualify in this system fail to cover by an average of -15.8 points per game. It is very apparent after dropping an overtime game as a favorite the role of home favorite continues to give these teams problems as they struggle in this situation. Home-cooked and well done with no chance to cover.

With all the system parameters met, this week’s Cajun Sports Wire NCAA Football System of the Week qualifies the Cincinnati Bearcats plus the points over the West Virginia Mountaineers.

South Carolina at Florida
By Brian Edwards

When Steve Spurrier took the South Carolina job in early 2005, he spoke of the opportunity to do something that had never been done. He hoped that he could provide the Gamecocks with “one night in the Dome.”

Of course, Spurrier was referencing the Ga. Dome in Atlanta, the home of the SEC Championship Game where South Carolina has never made an appearance. That’s the same venue where Spurrier led Florida to four SEC titles (he won three others at UF, one at Legion Field in Birmingham in ’93 and two others before the championship game was formed).

Well, Spurrier gets his chance to lead South Carolina to the Ga. Dome this Saturday when it plays for the SEC East title against Florida at The Swamp, the venue Spurrier named back in the early ‘90s. It’s a winner-take-all showdown on ESPN at 7:15 p.m. Eastern.

As of Thursday, most sports books were listing Florida (6-3 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) as a 6 ½-point favorite with a total of 51 ½. Bettors can take the Gamecocks to win outright for a plus-210 return (risk $100 to win $210).

Urban Meyer’s team is coming off its best performance of the year, a 55-14 win at Vanderbilt as a 14-point road favorite. The Gators raced out to a 41-0 lead by halftime before hitting the cruise-control button.

Junior quarterback John Brantley completed 11-of-18 passes for 157 yards and two touchdowns without being intercepted. Jordan Reed, a redshirt freshman, saw his most extensive playing time of the year, rushing 16 times for 84 yards and one touchdown. Reed also connected on 11-of-19 throws for 120 yards, including a 31-yard scoring strike to Deonte Thompson in the first quarter.

Junior RB Chris Rainey was a major factor again in his second game back from suspension. Rainey had four receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown and also blocked a punt that was returned for a score by Solomon Patton.

Unlike UF, South Carolina is off its worst game of the year, a 41-20 loss to Arkansas as a four-point home favorite. The USC defense had absolutely no answers for the Razorbacks, who got 303 passing yards from Ryan Mallett and three TD runs from Knile Davis.

Freshman RB Marcus Lattimore has been the catalyst for USC’s offense all season long, but he was limited to 11 carries and just 30 yards after bruising his knee in the first half against Arkansas. However, the knee is fine and he’s good to go this week.

Lattimore told GamecockCentral.com, "This is what I came here for, to play on the big stage in front of crazy fans. It's going to be real fun. It's going to be a great experience."

Lattimore is second in the SEC in rushing with 752 yards and 11 TDs. The Palmetto State native is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and also has 15 receptions for 250 yards and two more scores.

Lattimore’s presence has given Spurrier his first legitimate ground game to set up play-action passes since he arrived in Columbia. The result has been a big season for sophomore WR Alshon Jeffrey who, like Lattimore, passed on all of the other big-name schools to stay in his home state.

Jeffrey has outshined the league’s other big-name wideouts (‘Bama’s Julio Jones and UGA’s), leading the SEC in receptions per game (6.6) and receiving yards (1,034). He has seven TD catches.

Stephen Garcia didn’t play well in last week’s loss to Arkansas, but he has had a solid season. The Tampa native has completed 67.7 percent of his passes for 2,065 yards and 14 TDs.

Before going to Jacksonville two weeks ago, Florida was reeling with three consecutive regular-season losses for the first time since 1988. But the Gators won a 34-31 decision over Georgia in overtime thanks to a game-winning kick from Chas Henry.

The victory, coupled with a chance to go to Atlanta for a third straight year, has seemingly given this UF team new life. After all, a 10-win season, an SEC title and a BCS bowl game is still within reach.

During its bye week leading into the UGA game, Florida belatedly made adjustments to its offense that had been borderline abysmal (at least for UF standards) for most of the year. The Gators have employed a no-huddle offense featuring freshman Trey Burton and Reed at QB nearly as much as Brantley. The result has been 89 points in a pair of games.

UF has won 18 of 19 head-to-head meetings against South Carolina. The Gamecocks’ lone win came in the first year of Spurrier’s tenure at USC. That’s when the ‘Cocks upset the Gators 30-22 as four-point home underdogs.

Since then, Florida has won four in a row, but USC has covered the number in two of those losses. In fact, Spurrier is 3-2 ATS against his former school.

When these teams met last year, South Carolina was trailing 17-14 but had all the momentum and was driving in UF territory early in the fourth quarter. But that’s when a Garcia pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage and intercepted by Justin Trattou, who set the Gators up with a first-and-goal situation after a 53-yard return. Tim Tebow went into the end zone moments later and UF eventually captured a 24-14 win as a 17 ½-point road favorite.

Back in 2006, South Carolina nearly went to Gainesville and ruined UF’s drive to a national title. However, place-kicker Ryan Succup, who is now enjoying a fine NFL career with the Chiefs, had a long field goal hit the crossbar in the first half and then had a PAT and potential game-winning FG blocked in the final stanza. Those special-teams plays allowed the Gators to collect a 17-16 win as 13 ½-point favorites.

In 2008, Spurrier suffered his most lopsided loss in 20-plus years as a head coach. Percy Harvin and Tebow ran all over the Gamecocks in a 56-6 win.

The talent gap between UF and USC has narrowed significantly since ’08, though. Shane Beamer, the son of the Va. Tech head coach who is USC’s recruiting coordinator, has made sure of that. Lattimore and Jeffrey are just two examples of why Spurrier won’t be overmatched from a talent level this time around.

As a road underdog during Spurrier’s tenure at USC, the Gamecocks own a 11-7-1 spread record. Meanwhile, the Gators are 21-13-1 ATS as home favorites during Meyer’s six-year tenure. They are 15-8 ATS in such spots since the start of the 2007 campaign.

The ‘over’ is 6-2 overall for South Carolina this year, 2-1 in its road assignments. The Gators have seen the ‘over’ go 6-3 overall, 3-2 in their home games.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Spurrier said this about last week’s loss: "Arkansas kicked our tails the other night. They out-coached us, they out-played us, they out-blocked us, and they out-tackled us."

A win this week would give South Carolina wins over Georgia, Tennessee and Florida in the same year for the first time in school history.

South Carolina’s season win total was seven, so a victory at UF would give its backers a push (at worst) with two remaining games (vs. Troy and at Clemson).

It’s time for this space to give Oklahoma St. head coach Mike Gundy the credit he deserves. In what was supposed to be a transition year for the Cowboys, who some picked to finish in the cellar of the Big 12 South back in the preseason, they are 8-1 and have cashed tickets in six of their last seven games. OSU racked up 725 yards of total offense in last week’s 55-28 win over Baylor. It is a 5 ½-point favorite Saturday at Texas. Finally, in reference to Gundy, it’s time for us to think ‘offensive genius’ instead of “I’m a man! I’m 40!”

Back in August, many (such as yours truly) felt like Texas QB Garrett Gilbert would build off of his spectacular second-half performance against Alabama in last year’s BCS Championship Game. Um, let’s go ahead and put that theory to rest. Gilbert threw five interceptions in last week’s 39-14 blowout loss at Kansas St. For the year, he now has an atrocious 7/14 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

With its athletic budget decimated by the financial crisis and the signing and subsequent firing of Dan Hawkins, Colorado is in the midst of what we will aptly call a very low-budget search for a new head football coach. How low budget, you ask? Well, it appears that there’s a legitimate chance – if not an outright likelihood – that the Buffs are going to bring back former coach Bill McCartney. Yes, that Bill McCartney, the 70-year-old man who hasn’t coached since 1994. If CU does indeed go that route, it would be wise to try and get all-time leading rusher Eric Bieniemy to come along as the offensive coordinator and head-coach in waiting. Bieniemy, who rushed for 4,236 yards while playing for McCartney from 1987-1990, is currently the RBs coach for the Vikings. He was CU’s RBs coach in 2001 and 2002.

Before laughing at the McCartney possibility at CU, I guess we should consider that he posted a 58-11-4 record in his last six seasons in Boulder. Or not?!

vegasinsider.com.

Saturday's Games

Highlighted Games

Virginia beat Maryland last three years (20-9/31-0/18-17); underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in last five series games. Terps lost five of last six visits to Virginia- they've had two INTs in five of last six games, but are 1-3 on road, with only win 24-21 at 4-5 BC. Virginia is 2-5 vs I-A opponents, winning last two at home; they scored 48 points last week, but lost at Duke. Five of last six Virginia games went over the total.

Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in last seven Ga Tech-Miami games; Jackets won four of last five in seris, winning 41-23/30-23 in last two played at home. Tech is 2-1 as dog this year; they lost last two games, completing only 8-29 passes. Miami is 1-3 vs spread in last four games as a favorite; they won three of last four road games, but this is the first road start for freshman QB. Single digit home underdogs are 3-6 in ACC this year.

Underdog won SU in last five Iowa-Northwestern games, with Wildcats winning four of those five games; three of Hawkeyes' last five visits to Evanston were decided by 1 or 2 points. Northwestern is 0-6 vs spread in last six games, 0-2 as underdog, losing 35-27/35-21 as a dog. Iowa won five of last six games, but Indiana dropped winning TD pass in end zone in last minute last week. Big 11 home dogs are 8-5 vs spread.

Clemson lost five of last six visits to Florida State, with all five losses by 14+ points; 5-4 Tigers are 0-3 on road this year, with all three losses by six or less points- they're 1-2 as an underdog. Seminoles lost last couple games by 4-2 points, getting outscored 37-10 in second half; they failed to cover last three tries as the favorite. Under is 7-0-1 in Clemson games this season. ACC single digit home favorites are 5-6 vs spread.

Texas A&M is 11-2 in last 13 games vs Baylor; favorites covered last four series games. Aggies won/covered last three games, scoring average of 41 ppg (won by 35-18-14 points)- they're 3-2 as favorite. Baylor won five of last seven games, scoring 43.7 ppg in its three home wins vs I-A opponents, but Bears are just 1-3 as underdog. Big 12 home underdogs of 7 or less points are just 4-7 against the spread this season.

First place is on line in Gainesville, where South Carolina is 1-4 against spread in last five visits; they're 1-12 in last 13 games vs Florida, with 10 of those 12 losses by 10+ points. Gamecocks' losses this year are by 8-3-21 points. Gators lost last two home games (LSU/Miss State); they're 2-3 as home favorite. Single digit home favorites are 9-4 vs spread in SEC games this year. Five of Carolina's last six games went over total.

Last home game for 4-5 Notre Dame team that lost last two games; they are 1-1 as underdog this year. Three of their five losses are by 4 or less points. Utah is 6-1-1 as a favorite this year, but they got waxed 47-7 at home by unbeaten TCU last week. Over is 5-2 in Utah's last seven tilts. Irish allowed 589 rushing yards in last two games. MWC faves are 8-3 in non-conference games, 4-2 on road.

Lot of off-field distractions for Auburn team that lost last four games vs Georgia by 7-4-25-22 points; 10-0 Tigers are 5-1 vs spread in SEC play, but only two of their six league wins are by more than 8 points. Georgia is only 5-5, but only two of the five were by more than 7 points. Dawgs are scoring 37.2 ppg vs I-A opponents since WR Green became eligible. Auburn has 300+ rushing yards in last five games vs I-A opponents.

Trap game for high-powered Oregon squad that lost last three visits here; Ducks' 42-3 win LY was just their second in last six games vs Cal, but Bears are 3-4 in last seven games, with three losses by 21+ points- they are using backup QB who is junior, so not great prospect. Seven of eight Oregon games went over the total. Oregon is 4-0 on road, with wins by 48-13/42-31/43-23/53-32. Pac-10 double digit home dogs are 4-1-1.

Stanford won last four games, scoring 39.5 ppg; they're 5-2 vs spread as a favorite, 3-0 on road, winning on foreign soil by 35-0/37-14/41-0, but Cardinal lost last four visits to Tempe. Last four series games were all decided by 19+ points. Arizona State is 4-1-1 vs spread as an underdog; their losses this season are by 1-11-3-33-1 point. Pac-10 home dogs are 6-4-1. Four of last five Cardinal games went over the total.

Texas is a mess, losing three in row, five of last six games; they allowed 32.3 ppg in last three games, and were down 39-0 at one point to KState last week. All five Texas losses this year are by 7+ points. Oklahoma St. covered four of last five games; they're 3-0 on road, 2-0 as road favorite, with wins by 26-17-10 points. Big 12 home underdogs of less than seven points are 4-7 against the spread this season.

Virginia Tech won five of last six games vs North Carolina, losing LY as 15-point home favorites; Hokies won last seven games (6-1 vs spread), are 4-1 as home faves this season. North Carolina won six of last seven games, winning as 10-point dogs at Florida State last week after trailing I-AA WmMary in 4th quarter week before that. Single digit ACC home underdogs are 3-6 against the spread.

USC is 7-1 in last eight games vs Arizona, winning last four visits here; Trojans are just 2-3 in last five games, allowing 32+ points in four of the five- they're 3-1 on road (lost 37-35 at Stanford), with underdog covering three of those four games. Arizona was awful in 42-17 loss at Stanford last week; they covered only one of last five games as a favorite. Four of last five Wildcat games went over total.

Rest of the Card

-- Underdogs are 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven Cincinnati-West Virginia games; last three games were decided by 5 or less points. Bearcats won last two meetings, 24-21/26-23. West Virginia lost its last two games.
-- Central Florida won its last five games, scoring 41.4 ppg; they're 7-0 vs spread in last seven games, 3-1 as home fave this year. Southern Miss scored 41+ points in each of last five games (3-2, average total 75.8).
-- Rutgers is 5-3 in its last eight games vs Syracuse; all eight games were decided by 10+ points. Six of Knights' last seven games were decided by 5 or less points. Syracuse won last three road games, allowing 10 ppg.
-- Duke scored 34-55 points in winning last two games after 1-6 start; average total in their last three games is 73. BC has 12 takeaways in last four games (+6)- they allowed 10-13 points in winning last two games.
-- Michigan lost three of last four games (won 67-65 in OT last week); they failed to cover last four games as favorite. Purdue lost its last three games by total of 127-23. Five of last six Wolverine games went over.

-- Underdogs are 8-0 vs spread in Wisconsin games this year; Badgers are 0-6 as a favorite, with no wins by more than 20 poiunts. Indiana lost last two road games 38-10/43-13. Big 11 home faves of 11+ points are 4-2.
-- Illinois scored 43-44-65 points in last three games; their last three wins are all by 20+ points (2-1 as home fave). Minnesota lost last nine games, losing last two games 52-10/31-8. Over is 4-1 in last five Illini games.
-- Wake Forest lost last seven games (2-5 vs spread); they're 0-4 as road underdog this year, losing by 44-31-31-48 points. NC State's last three games were all decided by 4 or less points, or in OT.
-- Oklahoma lost two of last three games, but won last two home games by 52-0/43-10 scores. Texas Tech is 1-3 vs spread this year in the game following a win. Under is 3-1 in last four games for both teams.
-- Former Husker QB Turner Gill returns to Lincoln with Kansas squad that is 3-4 as underdog this year- they were losing 45-17 in 4th quarter last week, but rallied to win. Huskers are 5-3 as favorite, 2-2 at home.

-- Kentucky is 10-3 in last 13 games vs Vanderbilt, but last five wins in series were by 12 or less points. Vandy lost last four games by average score of 42-9. Favorite is 7-2 vs spread in Kentucky's 2010 games.
-- Alabama beat Mississippi State last two years, 31-3/32-7; Tide is 3-1 as home favorite this year, but 2-4 vs spread last six games. Miss State won last six games; their only losses? 17-14 to Auburn, 29-7 at LSU.
-- Colorado fired its coach this week; his son is the QB. Home side won last six Colorado-Iowa St games. Cyclones lost last four visits to Boulder by 4-17-5-34 points. 5-5 Iowa State is bowl eligible if they win here.
-- Western Michigan is 2-5 in last seven games, but wins were by 29-46 points; they're 1-1 as fave this year. Eastern Michigan is 1-6 vs spread in last seven games. Double digit MAC home favorites are 5-9 vs spread.
|-- Army is 3-1 on road; they lost rivalry game to Air Force last week, is playing Notre Dame in NYC next week. Kent St. is 1-3 as an underdog. MAC underdogs are 16-20 in non-conference games, 4-4 at home.

-- BYU is 0-4 on road, with all four losses by 15+ points; they won last three visits here by 3-21-10 points. Colorado State covered six of its last seven games. MWC single digit home underdogs are 4-1 vs spread.
-- Arkansas scored 42.8 ppg in last four games (3-1); they're 3-1 when a favorite this year. UTEP is 1-3 as an underdog this season. SEC non-conference home faves are 11-9 vs spread. C-USA road dogs are 7-8.
-- Marshall won its last two games, allowing 14.5 ppg, but only one of its three wins is by more than 4 points. Memphis is horrible, losing last five games by average score of 50-11. C-USA home faves are 13-7-1.
-- Navy won 76-35 at East Carolina last week; they're 2-3 as favorite in '10. MAC road dogs are 12-16 vs spread out of conference. Four of last five Navy games went over total. Central Michigan covered only one of its last six games (2-2 as underdog this year).
-- Rice won four of last six games vs Tulane, winning 28-20/42-17 in last two meetings, but Owls lost 41-14/64-27 in last two games; they're 1-2 as road dog this year. Tulane lost four of its last five games.

-- Missouri lost last two games, scoring 17 in both games; they're 2-1 as home fave this season. K-State's three losses this year are by 35-5-10 points (2-2 as a dog). Four of last five Mizzou games stayed under total.
-- Favorite is 8-4 vs spread in last 12 Penn St-Ohio St games; Penn State lost games by 21-21-20 points this year (1-2 as dog, 0-2 on road). Ohio State is 7-2 vs spread this year. Last four PSU games went over total.
-- Home side won all seven South Florida-Louisville games; Bulls lost all three visits here, by 24-20/31-8/41-9 scores. USF was held to 14 points or less in its three losses. Louisville is 3-0 as a favorite this season.
-- TCU won its last six games (4-1 vs spread in last five) by average of 39-4. San Diego State is 7-2, 2-0 as dog; their losses are both by three points (@ Mizzou, @ BYU). Six of last seven Aztec games went under.
-- New Mexico is 0-4 as road dog this year, losing by 43-9 average score. Air Force lost three of last four games (played TCU-Utah-Army in last three games); they're only 1-4 vs spread as a favorite this season.

-- Louisiana Tech lost its three road games by 32-20-29 points; they are 2-6 vs I-A foes, winning by 18-13 points. Six of eight Tech games went over the total. New Mexico State covered its last four games.
-- Washington State is 0-9 vs I-A teams, but covered five of last six, with only one loss by more than 20 points. Oregon State is 4-4, with one win by more than 7 points. Over is 6-2 in Beavers' games this season.
-- Ole Miss ran for 359 yards in 42-17 win over Tennessee LY; Rebels lost last three SEC games, allowing 37 ppg. Vols are 0-5 in SEC games, scoring 15.8 ppg. Seven of last eight Tennessee games went over total.
-- San Jose State is 0-7 vs I-A opponents, losing 48-0/33-18 in its home games. Utah State has two wins but is 0-5 of they score less than 27 pts. Five of last six Aggie games stayed under the total.

-- Houston beat Tulsa 46-45/70-30 last two years, but Cougars are using 3rd-string QB now- they're 2-3 in last five games, allowing 47-34-40 in losses. Tulsa won its last three games, covered its last five.
-- Nevada beat Fresno State last two years, 52-14/41-28; win at Fresno was their first in last five visits here. Wolf Pack covered one of last five as favorite. Bulldogs won last three games, scoring 33-33-40 points.
-- Wyoming lost as road favorite at woeful New Mexico last week. now visits banged-up UNLV squad that lost last five games by average score of 48-12. Cowboys lost last five games by average score of 36-19.
-- Arkansas State won three of last four games (4-0 vs spread); they are 3-0 as favorites this year, winning those games by 14-5-21 points. Last three ASU games went over. WKU covered last four as an underdog.

-- Underdogs are 8-0 vs spread in Troy games this year; Trojans are 0-6 as favorites, 0-3 at home, winning at home by 3-7-7 points. FIU is 3-1 in its last four games; they're 1-2 as a road underdog this season.
-- North Texas lost four of last five games; they're 2-1-1 as road dog this year. Middle Tennessee is 2-5 vs I-A teams, 2-3 as favorite, winning by 20-28 points. Six of seven MTSU games stayed under the total.
-- FAU allowed 12.5 ppg in winning its last two games; they're 0-2 this season as a favorite. ULL lost last five games, but covered last three as an underdog. Five of last seven FAU games stayed under total.
-- LSU beat Alabama last week, has Ole Miss/Arkansas on deck; Miles' teams play to level of opponent (led I-AA McNeese State 16-10 at half) so likely to take it easy on UL-Monroe squad that covered three of last four as an underdog, but did lose 52-3 at Auburn in early October.

Fade Alert - Week 11
By Bruce Marshall

Several college teams are beginning to lose momentum as the season moves into mid-November. The following sides could be candidates to "fade" in Saturday action. Teams appear in schedule order...

Northwestern... The Wildcats were always going to have to overcome defensive shortcomings this season, but NU fans didn’t realize it was going to be such a gut-wrenching experience. Indeed, the Wildcats could be threatening the BCS right now with a few breaks, but instead they’re looking at three defeats and probably a lesser bowl invitation (at the moment we have them pegged into the Texas Bowl instead of one of the Florida New Year’s destinations for Big Ten teams). In each of NU’s losses, the Cats held the lead, but 4th quarter collapses have now become almost acute for the U, which has also managed to lose six straight vs. the spread. We still find NU an interesting team to watch, and think QB Dan Persa is one of the most-versatile in the country. But we wonder how the Cats are going to react to three more challenging assignments (Iowa, Illinois at Wrigley Field, and then at Wisconsin) after falling out of Big Ten contention in recent weeks. This week hosts Iowa

Minnesota... We’ve had the Gophers on the fade watch for a while, even before HC Tim Brewster was forced to walk the plank last month, and we don’t want to jump back aboard the sinking ship just because Minny managed to squeeze inside of a hefty impost last week at Michigan State. The Gophers had lost contact with the Spartans by halftime when trailing 21-0. And we doubt the situation improves any over the last two weeks against Illinois and Iowa, with interim HC Jeff Horton’s short tenure about to expire, assistant coaches looking to line up new jobs, and some players wondering if they’re even going to be asked back by the new regime. Awkward times continue in Minneapolis. This week at Illinois

Wake Forest... Wake fans might want to blame the team’s woes on the fact HC Jim Grobe has not effectively replaced 4-year starting QB Riley Skinner this season, and that wouldn’t be completely incorrect. But the real reason Wake has fallen into the abyss is a defense that it completely void of playmakers, reflected in the 213 points Wake has allowed in only four (that’s right, four!) road games, a 102nd overall ranking, and an embarrassing 112th (38.8 ppg) in scoring defense. And if Grobe hasn’t uncovered any impact defenders by this stage, we don’t expect any to show up for the final few weeks of the season. This week at NC State

Vanderbilt... When ESPN broke a story earlier this week that HC Robbie Caldwell was working under a multiyear contract at Vandy, Commodore Nation rose up in arms and threatened absolute mutiny. Now it appears unlikely that Caldwell, who still has the interim label, probably won’t be asked to return as head coach in 2011, not after the Dores have lost their last four by double-digit margins, with each loss seemingly worse than the last (49-14 at Arkansas followed by 55-14 vs. Florida the past two weeks). Caldwell has some legit excuses, especially a pile of injuries that keeps getting bigger (now RB Zac Stacy appears out with a concussion after comrade Warren Norman was already KO’d by a dislocated wrist), but the recent decision to give snaps to 5th-year senior QB Jared Funk appears an act of desperation after starter Larry Smith’s performances continued to deteriorate. The Dores are apparently starting to lose recruiting commitments as well, so they’d better make a coaching decision in hurry. This week at Kentucky

Colorado... Now it’s the Buffs’ turn to enter that Neverland of interim coaches, with Brian Cabral summoned from the staff to temporarily fill in for Dan Hawkins, whose long-predicted dismissal finally came after last week’s epic collapse against Kansas (the Jayhawks scored the last 35 points of the game in a 52-45 win over the Buffs that sealed Hawkins’ fate). The irony is that CU could still technically become bowl-eligible with wins in its last three games, but that’s about as likely as us getting a date with Salma Hayek next week. Don’t expect things to get much better the rest of the way for CU, which is now riding a 5-game straight up and spread losing streak. This week hosts Iowa State

Notre Dame... The only hope Notre Dame fans have for their crumbling season is that last week’s bye can somehow rejuvenate the Fighting Irish to get 2 wins in their last 3 games and secure bowl eligibility. But it’s not going to be easy, with main offensive weapons QB Dayne Crist, RB Armando Allen, and TE Kyle Rudolph all now out for the season. QB Tommy Rees gets his first career start this week. Moreover, HC Brian Kelly doesn’t appear likely to whip TCU’s defense out of a magic hat to replace his slow-footed stop unit that has been exploited by every competent offense ND has faced this season. The Irish also haven’t covered a game at home yet in 2010, and the program is still reeling about the training field accident that killed a student videographer during a recent windstorm. It has been a season to forget in South Bend, where some Irish fans probably are wishing the team would just cancel the rest of the campaign. Bring back the good ’ol days of Charlie Weis or Ty Willingham? This week hosts Utah

Memphis... The season can’t end soon enough for the Tigers, whose brief rally in mid-September seems like decades ago. The past five weeks have been especially brutal, losing straight-up and against the spread in each. Along the way, the Tigers are offering an irresistible combination for defeat, allowing 42.44 ppg (119th in scoring defense) while also rallying just 14.22 ppg to rank 119th in scoring offense. Thank goodness for Eastern Michigan (the only scoring defense wore than Memphis’) and San Jose State 9the only scoring offense worse than the Tigers’)! This week at Marshall

Rice... With the exception of 2008, when the Owls actually played some defense and went to a bowl game (which they won in their hometown over Western Michigan by a 38-14 count), Rice’s stop unit shortcomings have been a recurring problem for over 40 years. And of all the bad Owl defenses we have seen over the years, we’re not sure any is worse than the current edition that has allowed 30 points or more in every game this season. That would have been a lot more than even former great Rice QBs such as Tobin Rote or Frank Ryan and Tommy Kramer could have overcome, much less current signal-caller Nick Fanuzzi. This week at Tulane

Texas... It just keeps getting worse for the Longhorns (what’s going on in Texas anyway these days with the Cowboys and Horns?), who now appear unlikely to even qualify for a bowl unless they do an abrupt about-face and win 2 of their last 3 games, after dropping 5 of their last 6 (both straight up and against the number). All of which appears increasingly remote with a defense that is in the midst of an absolute collapse and was manhandled last week by Bill Snyder’s Kansas State, which basically eschewed the pass in a brutal display of smashmouth in the Wildcats’ 39-14 romp at Manhattan. Texas still hasn’t uncovered the sort of competent infantry diversion that QB Garrett Gilbert could use, and if it hasn’t found a ground game by now, it probably won’t at all this season. How did Texas beat Nebraska, anyway? This week hosts Oklahoma State

UNLV... It is dawning upon Rebel backers that instead of making any on-filed progress this season under new HC Bobby Hauck, UNLV has instead regressed, perhaps alarmingly, after Mike Sanford’s last two teams each finished a somewhat respectable 5-7. Now, the current Hauck Rebs look to be on a crash course with 1-12. Injuries and youth (much of which forced to play key roles because of the injuries) are legit excuses for Hauck, who should be given a couple of years to perhaps turn things around at Sam Boyd Stadium. But some MWC observers are a bit disturbed at an offense that appears poorly-designed and without the sort of identity Sanford was at least able to forge the past few years with his commitment to the spread and throwing the football. Hauck’s desire to run a multiple offense that is trying to reintroduce a power element to UNLV’s attack hasn’t worked (now the Rebs don’t do anything well), reflected in recent games when the "O" hasn’t been able to slow an opponent’s momentum by simply netting a few first downs after opposing scores. That’s contributed to some of the exponential growth in Rebel loss margins, the latest a 55-7 shellacking at BYU last week. This week hosts Wyoming

South Carolina at Florida: What Bettors Need to Know
By MARC LAWRENCE

The Gators and Gamecocks play for the cheese in the SEC East with the winner of tonight’s game securing a spot in the SEC championship game. Let’s see how these co-division leaders come into the game.

THE MAN WITH A PLAN

Steve Spurrier preached to his team throughout the week leading up to USC’s game against then No. 1-ranked Alabama to give “fate” a chance.

He then went about devising a winning game plan. First, the Gamecocks forced a power-attack Alabama offense into being a passing team. Alabama rushed for 36 yards and attempted more passes (35) than it did running plays (29).

Spurrier also made sure star running back Marcus Lattimore would be a featured back in the contest. Lattimore carried the ball 23 times for 93 yards and two touchdowns, and reached the painted grass another time on a red zone reception.

While taking an even keel approach to Florida this week, you would never know the importance of the game from listening to Spurrier this week.

He admonished quarterback Stephen Garcia for referring to the game as “the biggest” in USC program history. To Spurrier, the game against Florida is simply the most important one on the schedule this week.

"No, that's not true," Spurrier said during the SEC coaches teleconference. "Please don't listen to Stephen when he talks all the time. He's speaking sometimes for Stephen.

“It is a big game. But beating the number one team in the country was a big win for us. Carolina has had a lot of big games. Unfortunately, we haven't won many of those big games. So, we're trying to do something different as far as starting some tradition. We have a chance, so we'll see how we perform."

He might not call all the plays like he once did and he isn’t likely to deliver a rah-rah pre-game speech to his team. But there is no doubt that Spurrier will have a solid game plan for USC to win on Saturday.

MORE LATTIMORE

Lattimore was hit on the knee and briefly left last Saturday's Arkansas game before he was finally pulled midway through the third quarter when the Razorbacks stormed ahead by three touchdowns.

"He's ready to go, he's 100 percent, let's go play," USC running backs coach Jay Graham said Wednesday. "He took all his reps, normal reps and everything, so he's ready to go."

It should be noted that Lattimore did not wear a brace during Wednesday's workout.

His presence is vital to the Gamecocks’ chance of success Saturday.
The I-formation with a fullback and tailback were staples of Spurrier's high-powered offenses at Florida, and the QBs often went under center. Today, most of the snaps are from the shotgun.

"We don't run the I-formation and the draw like we used to do," Spurrier said. "And we're not really built to be a passing team right now. We're a team that needs to run a little bit more than passing."

THREE-HEADED MONSTER

Florida's rebound from a devastating three-game losing streak has pleased head coach Urban Meyer.

The Gators installed a new three-quarterback system and seem to have gained new life following the bye week.

Quarterbacks John Brantley, Trey Burton and Jordan Reed have worked effectively the last two games, sparking the offense to 89 points on 930 yards.

"We've come a long way as a team from where we were three or four weeks ago," Meyer said. "I like our chemistry, I like our work ethic and I like our togetherness. That has put us in a position to play an exciting game on Saturday night."

When asked about Florida's new three-quarterback system, Spurrier said it reminded him of what the San Francisco 49ers did in the early 1960s with Billy Kilmer, John Brodie and a third QB.

"Other than that, I haven't seen three of them go at it," Spurrier said. "But I've certainly seen two of them go at it. They're all three good players. They all have their specialties. Coach Meyer is trying to maximize the talents of his team. So, I can certainly understand it."

RAINEY DAYS

Florida WR Chris Rainey’s arrest in September prior to the Tennessee game made headlines and tested a young team’s resiliency.

While critics called for Meyer to cut Rainey loose, he instead met with UF president Bernie Machen and athletic director Jeremy Foley to discuss Rainey’s future. They came up with certain requirements Rainey had to meet once his legal issues were clarified.

“Chris Rainey hit rock bottom. We all know that. We're not ashamed to say that,” Meyer said. “Chris is like a son to me. He hit rock bottom and he is coming up and going as fast as he possibly can right now.”

Rainey was re-instated to the team two weeks ago and his contributions have been huge. His ability to make big plays in a variety of ways is almost Percy Harvin-like.

In Florida’s 34-31 win over Georgia on October 30, Rainey rushed for 84 yards and a touchdown. He also returned six kickoffs for 148 yards. In Saturday’s win at Vanderbilt, Rainey blocked two punts – one led to a touchdown run by Mike Gillislee and the other was returned 42 yards for a touchdown by Solomon Patton – and caught four passes for a team-high 75 yards.

Rainey was named Southeastern Conference Special Teams Player of the Week on Monday for his performance at Vanderbilt.

Meyer has seen enough to be convinced Rainey has learned his lesson, yet he still remains cautious.

“It’s really encouraging to see some positives,’’ he said. “However, we’re not naïve enough to know we’ve [still] got a long way to go.’’

STAT WISE

• This game marks the 31st meeting in series history, with UF holding a 23-4-3 edge all-time, including 18-1 the last 19 meetings. Florida is 4-1 against the Gamecocks under head coach Urban Meyer.

• The Gators are looking to sweep their SEC East slate for the third consecutive season and 11th time since divisional play began in 1992.

• Under Meyer Florida is: 15-0 in games in which they block a punt; 48-1 in games in which it scores first and 19-8 in games in which both teams are ranked in the AP poll.

• Spurrier is 120-48-1 straight up and 100-67-2 against the spread as a college head coach in conference games. He is 48-29-1 straight up and 50-28 against the spread as a visitor in those games.

• South Carolina’s offense is ranked No. 52 in the nation, gaining 396 YPG. Its defense ranks No. 64, surrendering 370 PYG.

• Florida owns the nations 72nd ranked offense at 359 YPG. The Gators’ defense is rated No. 7 in the land, allowing 292 YPG.

Utah favored to extend Notre Dame's woes
By: Stephen Nover

Knute Rockne. The Four Horsemen. Eleven national championships. Touchdown Jesus. Seven Heisman Trophy winners.

And, now, a loss to Tulsa.

It has been a tough year for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish’s great tradition has taken a hit under first-year head coach Brian Kelly. The 4-5 Irish try to get back to winning Saturday when they host 15th-ranked Utah at 11:30 a.m. PT (NBC).

5Dimes is listing visiting Utah as a 5½-point favorite in South Bend with the total set at 54.

The Utes are 8-1, but their one loss occurred last week in a disastrous 47-7 home loss to TCU. That was the biggest game in Mountain West Conference history.

Utah could have cracked the top-five with a win, but instead the Utes suffered their worst defeat in Salt Lake City since 1989. The loss ended a 21-game Utah home winning streak. The Utes were plus 4 ½ and the combined 54 points went ‘over’ the 51 ½-point total.

Utes quarterback Jordan Wynn struggled going 16-for-35 for 148 yards and committing three turnovers against the nation’s No. 1 defense.

“We’ve still got a good national reputation,” Utah coach Kyle Whittingham was quoted as saying in a published report. “We’re 8-1 and you are who your record says you are and so we’ve had a good season to this point.”

The highly-touted Kelly so far hasn’t helped Notre Dame’s sagging prestige. The Irish were idle last week, but they lost to Tulsa, 28-27, as 9 ½-point home favorites in their last game. The combined 55 points dipped ‘under’ the 62-point total.

Freshman quarterback Tommy Rees threw an interception in the end zone on a second-and-8 from the Tulsa 19 yard line with 36 seconds left when Kelly could have run a play to set up a game-winning field goal attempt. David Ruffer is 13-for-13 in field goals this season for Notre Dame.

It was Tulsa’s first victory against a BCS school since 1998. Notre Dame had lost 35-17 to Navy at the Meadowlands in its previous game falling as 6 ½-point favorites.

Notre Dame’s senior class has 26 losses now, the most in a four-year span at the school since 1900.

Adding to the team's problems was the tragic death of a 20-year-old student videographer during a Notre Dame practice three days before the Irish were defeated by the Golden Hurricane. Declan Sullivan died when the lift he was in fell over on an extremely windy day.

The Irish are 16-36-2 ATS during their past 54 home games. They are missing a number of key offensive players due to injuries – quarterback Dayne Crist (knee), leading rusher Armando Allen (hip) and star tight end Kyle Rudolph (hamstring). They are all out for the year.

Thanks to Crist, the Irish rank 17th in passing averaging 288.6 yards per game, but are 100th in rushing averaging 113.4 yards. Notre Dame is averaging 26 points per contest, which is 72nd in the country.

Notre Dame ranks 62nd in scoring defense allowing 24.9 points per contest.

Utah is averaging 41 points per game, which ranks ninth-best. The Utes are fourth-best in scoring defense yielding 17.8 points a game.

This is Utah’s first meeting with Notre Dame. The Utes are 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times they’ve been ‘chalk.’ They are 15-5-1 ATS the last 21 times they’ve played a team under .500.

Notre Dame is 5-11-2 ATS in its last 18 non-conference matchups. The Irish are 5-16 ATS at home when facing a team with a winning road mark.

The ‘over’ is 13-2-1 in Utah’s last 16 non-league games. The ‘under’ has cashed in five of Notre Dame’s last six games in South Bend.

There’s a 50 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the 40s with a southwest wind blowing at nine mph.

NCAAF Odds: Cal hosts No. 1 Oregon
By: Adam Markowitz

The Oregon Ducks know that they are just three wins away from a berth in the BCS Championship Game. However, standing in their way on Saturday night in one of the top NCAA football betting affairs of Week 11 will be the Cal Golden Bears.

Oregon is favored by a hefty 19 ½ points at BetOnline, while the 'total' has been posted at 58½.

The No. 1 team in the land runs an offense like none other, and there might not be a team in the country that can stop the Quack Attack. The Ducks are averaging an astounding 569.4 YPG and 54.7 PPG, both topping the charts. They have strung together three straight games scoring at least 53 points and have put at least 43 on every single foe this year.

Most of the Heisman Trophy odds are off the board right now due to the fact that the NCAA is investigating whether or not Auburn Tigers QB Cam Newton is playing even though he violated a rule. If found guilty, Newton could be suspended and take himself out of the race for college football's most prestigious individual honor.

Enter Oregon RB LaMichael James who is no stranger to trouble off the field himself this season. He was suspended for the first game after getting into some trouble during the spring. However, after doing his time James has come back and just looked fantastic.

He has rushed for 1,351 yards and 18 TDs this year, and there is a legitimate shot that he could be a 2,000-yard back at this pace by the time Oregon's bowl game is over. Right now, assuming that Oregon plays 13 games, the Ducks' hero is on a pace to rumble for 2,026 yards and 27 TDs, and if that doesn't win him the Heisman, we don't know what numbers will.

Don't forget about QB Darron Thomas either. The only reason he is calling the shots on this offense is because Jeremiah Masoli was booted off the team for off the field issues. Thomas has responded with numbers that might warrant some Heisman consideration as well, throwing for 2,052 yards and rushing for 400, accounting for a total of 26 TDs against six picks.

Have fun trying to keep up with this offense, Cal! Brock Mansion stepped into the starting QB role last week against the Washington State Cougars after QB Kevin Riley injured his knee that will cost him the rest of his season. Mansion only completed 12-of-24 passing, didn't throw a TD and was picked off twice against the worst team in the Pac-10.

If RB Shane Vereen doesn't run for at least 200 yards and probably at least four scores, the Golden Bears are likely to get trampled. Vereen does have the ability to pull off the big game, but even at 886 yards and 12 rushing scores, he just doesn't hold a candle to what James is offering the U of O.

At the beginning of last season, before anyone realized the juggernaut that Oregon was forming, the Ducks came out as 5 ½-point underdogs and stomped Cal, 42-3. The Ducks haven't won a game here in Berkeley since 2001, and the two teams have been split even at 3-3 on the college football odds since that point.

Buckeyes 17-point favorites vs Penn St
By: Michael Robinson

The Ohio State Buckeyes need to impress the college voters in a big way when they host the Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday afternoon.

Bookmaker.com has the Buckeyes as 17-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 49 ½-points. They’re coming off a bye-week.

Ohio State (8-1 straight-up, 7-2 against the spread) has crawled up to No. 9 in the BCS, but has a big hill to climb to win the Big Ten, especially with Wisconsin ranked No. 7.

The Big Ten has Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa and Wisconsin all tied at the top with one loss. The Buckeyes play at Iowa next week, which could eliminate the Hawkeyes. The situation with Wisconsin is much trickier.

Coach Jim Tressel is still having nightmares about the Buckeyes’ 31-18 loss at Wisconsin on Oct. 16. It dropped them from the AP’s top ranking and also gives the Badgers the tie-breaker in a head-to-head scenario. Ohio State either needs Wisconsin to lose a game (not likely) or Michigan State to keep winning to create a three-way tie.

In the three-way scenario, the winner of the conference will be the highest ranked team in the BCS.

The bottom line: Ohio State needs to win big from here on out and impress the voters enough to move ahead of Wisconsin.

Ohio State has done its part since the Wisconsin game, beating Purdue 49-0 and Minnesota 52-10. OSU ‘covered’ both games and the ‘over’ went 2-0. Tressel didn’t purposely run up the score in either contest, but may have to think about this week if given the opportunity.

The Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS at home this year, with the ‘over’ going 5-1. They’re 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games overall.

Penn State (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) is having a mixed season. Last week, coach Joe Paterno became the first major college coach to get his 400th win. However, this proud program should be in the conference hunt every year, and that is not the case this season.

The Nittany Lions are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games since losing to Iowa and Illinois. Last week, they spotted Northwestern 21 points before scoring 35 unanswered for a 35-21 home win. Quarterback Matt McGloin relieved freshman Robert Bolden early and threw for 225 yards and four touchdowns.

McGloin is listed as the starter this week ahead of Bolden. McGloin has seven TDs and one pick (154.8 quarterback rating) and the team has won all three games he’s played (one start). He needs help from running back Evan Royster (284 yards the last two weeks), but Ohio State’s run defense is fourth in the nation (84 YPG).

Penn State had trouble with Northwestern quarterback Dan Persa, who threw for 201 yards and ran for 109. OSU’s Terrelle Pryor doesn’t run much anymore, but is still effective when he wants to. Pryor has completed 77.3 percent of his passes (34-of-44) the last two weeks.

The Nittany Lions have only played three road games, going 1-2 SU and ATS. They lost at Iowa 24-3 on Oct. 2 as 7 ½-point ‘dogs. They did win and ‘cover’ at Minnesota in the other Big Ten road game on Oct. 23, 33-21 as 8 ½-point ‘chalk’.

Penn State has played just two ranked teams this year (Alabama, Iowa) and is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.

The ‘over’ is 4-0 in Penn State’s last four games. The defense has allowed 26.5 PPG and 415.5 YPG in that span.

Ohio State is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last three games against Penn State. However, the Nittany Lions did win at OSU in 2008, 13-6 as 1 ½-point favorites. Ohio State ‘covered’ the previous six home meetings. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six games overall.

Ohio State linebacker Ross Homan is probable with a foot injury. Penn State defensive end Eric Latimore (wrist) is out.

ABC will have the kickoff from Columbus at 12:30 p.m. (PT). Weather should be clear and in the 50s.

Ohio State has the tough Iowa game next week as mentioned. Penn State will play a ‘road’ game versus Indiana at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland. That venue is significantly closer to Penn State.

Tips and Trends

Georgia Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers

BULLDOGS: Georgia has won 4 of their last 5 games, with their lone loss coming in OT to Florida. The Bulldogs are finally playing up to their preseason expectations, which makes them a dangerous team. Georgia is 5-5 SU, including just 1-3 SU on the road this year. The Bulldogs are 6-4 ATS overall this season. The Bulldogs are 0-3 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Offensively, the future is bright for Georgia. QB Aaron Murray is one of the best freshman QB's in the nation. Murray has thrown for more than 2,300 YDS this season, including 18 TD's. The Bulldogs are averaging 33.8 PPG this season, 26th best in the country. Georgia's defense has been underrated all season, allowing just 19.4 PPG this year. The Bulldogs have beaten the Tigers each of the previous 4 meetings. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on grass. Georgia is 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 conference games. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS against a team with a winning record. Georgia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as the listed underdog.

Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games against a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - DT Kwame Geathers (ankle) is probable.

Projected Score: 27

TIGERS: (-8.5, O/U 66.5) As of press time, QB Cam Newton is still playing in this game. Assuming Newton plays this evening, the biggest questions are how will this team handle all the surrounding rumors? The Tigers are clearly playing for so much, between an SEC Championship, a BCS championship opportunity, and a Heisman Trophy campaign. Auburn is 10-0 SU and 6-0 in SEC play entering tonight. The Tigers will also be playing their final home of the regular season. Auburn is 6-4 ATS this year, including 5-2 ATS as a single digit favorite. Besides Newton, the Tigers have depended on RB Michael Dyer. Dyer has rushed for nearly 800 YDS and 5 TD's this season. Newton has totaled more than 3,000 YDS this season, including 34 TD's. In the SEC, that is simply amazing. Defensively, the Tigers are allowing opponents to averaging 24.3 PPG. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played in November.

Tigers are 6-1 ATS last 7 conference games.
Over is 11-4 last 15 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - WR Deangelo Benton (ankle) is questionable.

Projected Score: 30 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

Oklahoma St. Cowboys at Texas Longhorns

COWBOYS: (-5.5, O/U 56) Oklahoma St. is 8-1 SU this season and ranked 10th in the nation. The Cowboys lone loss was to Nebraska, a 41-51 SU shootout. Not only are the Cowboys one of the best teams in the polls, but also from a betting standpoint. Oklahoma St. is now 7-2 ATS this year, one of the best marks in the nation. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS as the listed favorite this year. Oklahoma St. has an explosive offense, as they are averaging 46.3 PPG, 3rd best in the nation. QB Brandon Weeden has come into the spotlight as being one of the best players in the country this year. Weeden has thrown for nearly 3,000 YDS and 26 TD's this year. RB Kendall Hunter has rushed for 1,240 YDS this year with 14 TD's this season. To finally beat Texas tonight, the Cowboys will have to play physical on defense tonight. Oklahoma St. has allowed opponents to score 28.4 PPG this year, not good enough for a top 10 team. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Oklahoma St. is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Oklahoma St. is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. The Cowboys are 14-6 ATS against a team with a losing record.

Cowboys are 19-6-1 ATS last 26 games as a road favorite.
Under is 16-5 last 21 road games.

Key Injuries - WR Hubert Anyiam (ankle) is questionable.

Projected Score: 34 (SIDE of the Day)

LONGHORNS: Texas is in the midst of a dismal season, and they are looking to avoid losing their 4th consecutive game tonight in front of their home crowd. Texas is 4-5 SU, and are in danger on not even qualifying for a bowl game. The Longhorns have only won 1 home this year, going 1-3 SU. The Longhorns will play each of their last 3 games at home this season. Texas will be playing their 1st game of the season as the home underdog. The Longhorns are 1-1 ATS as the listed underdog this year. QB Garrett Gilbert leads an offense that is averaging just 22.3 PPG, 91st in the nation. Gilbert has thrown for more than 2,000 YDS this year, but has twice as many INT's than TD's. Defensively, the Longhorns have allowed at least 30 PTS in each of their 2 last games. The Longhorns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss. Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. The Longhorns are 2-8 ATS against a team with a winning record. Texas is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Longhorns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.

Longhorns are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a home underdog.
Under is 12-5 last 17 games against a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - CB Aaron Williams (concussion) is questionable.

Projected Score: 21

Big 10 Preview
By Tom Stryker

The Big Ten football chase continues to be a tale of the Big Four – Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin. And all four are expected to continue their winning ways this season. If that happens it sets an exciting stage for the final two regular weeks of the season.

All four have one league loss, and none of the leaders play each other this Saturday. All four are ranked in the nation’s top 13. Prospects for any of the four to reach the BCS championship game are long shots at best, but there is plenty at stake in the remaining weeks of November. Let’s take a look at this week’s action.

Iowa at NORTHWESTERN

Coach Kirk Ferentz’ Hawkeyes dodged a fatal bullet last Saturday when a closing-minute, game-winning touchdown pass was dropped by Damarie Belcher of Indiana. So the Hawkeyes have to be ready when they travel to Evanston before finishing at home against Ohio State and on the road at Minnesota.

Iowa, 7-2, 4-1, is fifth in the nation in rushing defense (85.2 yards) and sixth in the nation in scoring defense (14.3 points). So quarterback Dan Persa will have to be on his game if the Wildcats, 6-3, 2-3, are to have any chance. Persa, whose quarterback efficiency rating is 159.94 (11th in the nation), is also the team’s leading rusher with 469 yards.

Iowa’s senior wide receiver, a favorite target of quarterback Ricky Stanzi, became the school’s all-time reception leader in the game at Indiana. He has 163 catches in his years for the Badgers.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Iowa is 20-8 SU and 16-12 ATS in the last 28 meeting with Northwestern including 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in this role coming off a straight up win.

KEY ANGLES: Northwestern is 26-11 ATS priced as an underdog going into revenge including 17-6 ATS in this role coming off a straight up loss.

Iowa is a miserable 3-15 ATS when priced as a double-digit revenging favorite.

Michigan at PURDUE

After being outmanned by Wisconsin, the limping Boilermakers (4-5, 2-3) now must face the potent Michigan offense. Michigan put up 67 points in a triple-overtime victory over Illinois last Saturday.

Quarterback Denard Robinson, who has rushed for 12 touchdowns and thrown for 13 more, did not play in the final stages of that game with concussion-like symptom. But sophomore Tate Forcier has plenty of experience and he led the Wolverines (6-3, 2-3) to a game-tying touchdown late in the fourth quarter and continued to play well through the three overtimes.

Freshman Sean Robinson, who started the fall as probably the No. 5 quarterback on the depth chart, started and played the entirety against the Badgers. He was 19-38 for 141 yards and one touchdown. Coach Danny Hope knows he will need bigger numbers than that against Michigan.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Michigan is 19-5 SU and 13-11 ATS in the last 24 meetings with Purdue. However, the host in this Big 10 series stands 16-8 SU and ATS in the last 24 battles.

KEY ANGLES: Purdue stands 30-13-1 ATS at game eight of the season or later coming off two or more straight up losses.

Michigan is a weak 4-14 ATS in its last 18 tries priced as a favorite.

Indiana at WISCONSIN

Wisconsin, at 8-1, 4-1, is ranked No. 5 or 6 (take your choice of polls), the highest in the Big Ten. Bret Bielema’s Badgers are ranked 7th in the latest BCS standings and is hoping that a sweep of of their final three games could produce some national title chances. After Indiana, Wisconsin visits Michigan, then closes at home against Northwestern.

Indiana’s objective is not so simple. The Hoosiers are 4-5, 0-5, and know that Wisconsin averages 35.4 points per game (a school record pace) and also averages 5.13 yards per rush. Quarterback Ben Chappell, who riddled the Iowa defense for 25 of 35 and 323 yards, will need a huge game for Indiana to stay with Wisconsin.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Wisconsin is 15-9 SU and 12-11 ATS in the last 24 meetings against Indiana.

KEY ANGLES: Wisconsin is a profitable 21-12 ATS at home in conference play checking in off a straight up win provided its opponent arrives off a straight up loss.

Indiana is a surprising 24-13-1 ATS on foreign soil coming off two or more home games including a juicy 16-7 ATS priced as an underdog of +7’ or more.

Minnesota at ILLINOIS

Minnesota (1-9, 0-6) probably can’t wait for the fall to end. Interim Coach Jeff Horton knows his team is giving up 33.8 points a game and will be hard-pressed to slow down an Illinois outfit that scored 65 in a triple-overtime loss at Michigan last week.

Coach Ron Zook’s Illini (5-4, 3-3) still need this one to become bowl eligible. Nathan Scheelhaase continues to impress at quarterback for Illinois. In the last three weeks he has completed 43 of 66 passes for 529 yards and 9 touchdowns. Illinois has averaged 50.7 points in the last three games- laughers against Purdue and Indiana, and then the battle at Ann Arbor a week ago.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Illinois is 12-9-1 SU and 10-11-1 ATS in its last 22 meetings against Minnesota including 4-2-1 ATS if priced by -10 or more.

KEY ANGLES: Illinois is a weak 23-41-3 ATS at home facing a sub .500 opponent including a stiff 7-17 ATS in this role provided its foe enters off a blowout loss of 10 points or more.

Minnesota is a weak 12-19-1 ATS in its last 32 games as a road underdog.

Penn State at OHIO STATE

Yes, Joe Paterno notched his 400th victory last week at Penn State. But did you know that Ohio State’s Jim Tressel, with 237 victories is second to Paterno among active FBS coaches?

Penn State (6-3, 2-2) scored 35 unanswered points to erase an early deficit last Saturday against Northwestern. But sophomore Matt McGloin, who threw for 225 yards and four touchdowns, will need a similar effort if the Nittany Lions are to be any threat to the host Buckeyes.

Ohio State (8-1, 4-1) is averaging 42 points a game while giving up only 13.6 each outing. Quarterback Terrell Pryor continues to post big numbers. He is 5th in the nation in passing efficiency at 165. 2. The Buckeyes are 26-4 in November in Tressel’s years at the helm. Ohio State, one of the conference’s four co-leaders, travels to Iowa before closing the year at home against Michigan.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Ohio State is 11-7 SU and ATS in its last 18 battles with Penn State including a nearly perfect 7-1 SU and ATS in its own backyard.

KEY ANGLES: Ohio State is a tremendous 54-11 SU and 41-23-1 ATS in its last 65 games as a Big 10 host.

Penn State is a miserable 21-37 ATS as a guest tackling a winning team including a stunning 11-25 ATS in this role checking in with momentum off a straight up win of seven points or more.

NOTE: Michigan State is idle this weekend.