NCAAF News and Notes Saturday 11/20

College Football Last Game System
By Marc Lawrence

When teams on a win streak reach the final game of the regular season, it’s frequently with a sigh of satisfaction. Contentment, though, often turns to bitter disappointment when they enter the season finale off a straight-up underdog win.

Consider – since 1980 college teams in conference games off back-to-back victories are just 45-70-3-3 ATS in season ending games if their last win was as an underdog. This week’s team that should be bottoming out is Ball State.

Worse news for the Cardinals is the fact that these teams are just 11-28-1 ATS in these games when facing a conference opponent off a win of more than 10 points in its previous game. If our dive-bombers did not cover the spread by 20 or more points in its aforementioned upset win they dip to 5-25-1 ATS. And to really add to the crash-and-burn pattern, these same teams are 3-22-1 ATS if they failed to win 10 games the previous season.

Ball State will try and overcome this ‘return to earth’ phenomenon on Saturday against Wisconsin.

To that we say, “Look Out Below”. It won’t be an asteroid you’ll hear crashing to earth this weekend. It’s just gravity grabbing a hold of the Gonads…

College Football System of the Week
By: Cajun Sports

This week’s Cajun Sports College Football System of the Week looks at teams that are coming off a tremendous effort against an undefeated opponent but coming up just short in pulling off a major upset.

SYSTEM: From Game 7 on, play AGAINST a team (not an underdog of 37+ points) with 6+ days rest off a SU loss & ATS win of more than 8 points against an undefeated opponent vs. an opponent off three SU wins. This system is 17-0 SU winning by an average of 23.5 points per game and 17-0 ATS covering by an average of 11.0 points per game since 1982.
Last week the number 1 ranked team in the nation the Oregon Ducks invaded Berkley California looking to extend their current nine-game winning streak and hold onto the top spot in the polls as they faced off against the California Golden Bears. Oregon was able to survive the scare leaving Berkley with a 15 to 13 victory.

Oregon was leading the nation in scoring averaging 54.7 points per game entering last Saturday’s Pac 10 battle with the Bears. They needed a 64-yard punt return for a touchdown and an illegal motion call against the Bears on a 24-yard Field Goal attempt that was good but called back and kicker Giorgio Tavecchio then missed the ensuing 29-yard Field Goal attempt, which eventually preserved the Ducks victory.

The old saying close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades applies to the Golden Bears because there are no moral victories in a game such as last week’s emotional loss to the number 1 team in the nation.

Oregon began their final drive on their own twenty-yard line with 9:25 left on the clock using seventeen plays and converting four third downs to reach the Bears fourteen-yard line and put the nail in the proverbial coffin.

Our database research tells us that teams coming off a great effort but falling just short against an undefeated opponent struggle finding the motivation for another battle the following week. This Bears team is in the perfect situation as our system indicates for a huge letdown against the Stanford Cardinal.

With all the system parameters met, this week’s Cajun Sports College Football System of the Week qualifies the Stanford Cardinal minus the points versus the California Golden Bears on Saturday.

A Pair of Let Downs
By Judd Hall

We were pretty damn close to having all hell break loose in the national title chase last weekend. Sadly, the Golden Bears and Bulldogs couldn’t pull off the upsets last Saturday. We won’t see Auburn or Oregon put into the fray since they’re both taking the week off.

Gamblers shouldn’t fret about the big time “chalk” teams not being on the board since we’ve got a couple of good spots to fade some clubs in a let down spot. Let’s take a look at them.

Plundering Pittsburgh…

The Panthers had the cleanest road of any team in the Big East to earn the league’s automatic trip to the BCS. A win last week at Connecticut would have virtually clinched that spot for the Panthers. Yet they wound up falling 30-28 to UConn as six-point favorites. Look no further than Pitt’s offense for why they lost this game. The Panthers’ attack had three turnovers, which the Huskies promptly turned into 10 points. It also doesn’t help that Connecticut’s Jordan Todman ran for 222 yards on them either.

Pittsburgh still sits in the cat bird seat for the conference crown this week as a 2 ½-point road favorite against the Bulls. The problem is whether they are worth backing or not.

South Florida has started to click under Skip Holtz with three straight wins. The Bulls’ running game has been very strong during this streak, gaining 421 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. That running prowess with B.J. Daniels under center will be of benefit…especially with Pitt giving up 434 in its last two matches.

Another thing for bettors thinking about taking the Bulls, consider this: USF is 3-1 straight up and against the spread in its last four games as a home pup against Big East foes.

Hibernating Bears…

California had the best chance of anyone to knock the Ducks off last Saturday, but still fell 15-13 as a 19-point home pup. The Golden Bears held Oregon to just 317 yards on offense by using a lot of nickel defenses. And if it weren’t for a Giorgio Tavecchio miss on a 29-yard field goal attempt to open the fourth quarter, they could have shaken the BCS up in a big way. Even if you get past the soccer-like diving the players did to slow down Oregon, the Bears played very well.

The Golden Bears are going to try and pick themselves up this weekend as seven-point home underdogs to Stanford. And maybe it’s just me, but that line seems awfully low.

I know that Cal won last year’s matchup 34-28 in Palo Alto, but that was a perfect letdown spot for the Cardinal. Stanford was going into that game having just beaten the hell out of Pete Carroll’s Trojans. And I also know that the Bears won the match against them the year before.

This line has no doubt been adjusted because of the 17-13 come-from-behind win the Cardinal had last weekend at Arizona State. Yet Jim Harbaugh’s side is a much more imposing figure now than they have been over the last few years.

There is even a trend that lends credibility to this fade spot. California has gone 1-3 SU and ATS when they’re posted as a home underdog in Pac-10 play after covering the spread in its last game. Meanwhile, Stanford is on a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS run as a road “chalk” in league contests.

vegasinsider.com

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 12 MOTIVATIONAL SPOTS
Evan Altemus

Knowing motivational and situational spots each week in college football is critical to successfully handicapping the sport and making money, which is what we all care about. Each week, I start handicapping the weekend card by looking at every possible motivational situation in the weekend's games. Here are some games that I noticed early in the week when I did my initial scan of the up-coming card.

Duke / Georgia Tech - The Yellow Jackets have their huge rivalry game coming up against Georgia next week. However, they need one more win to secure a bowl berth and they were embarrassed last week against Miami. There are two conflicting motivational factors here as a result. It will be up to bettors to determine if one of them outweighs the other strong enough to warrant a bet on the game.

Stanford / California - Cal suffered a very tough loss to Oregon last week at home, in a game that they were in position to win in the 2nd half. However, some mistakes cost them the huge upset win. Now they have to bounce back this week and play their big in-state rival in Stanford. Some people may think that Cal might have a hangover heading into this game, which will be a big problem against Stanford, which is one of the best teams in the country. However, Cal is very tough at home and are a significant underdog in this game at home.

Troy / South Carolina - South Carolina got one of the biggest wins in their program's history last week at Florida. That win secured a spot for them in the SEC Championship game, a game that this program definitely is not used to playing in. Troy has good athletes, but they are from the weakest conference in the FBS. Sun Belt teams have been blown out this season in non-conference games, as they have really struggled to match up with stronger conferences.

USC / Oregon State - The Beavers were absolutely embarrassed by lowly Washington State at home last week. That is a surprise for most Beavers fans, as they are used to their team dominating the 2nd half of the season under Mike Riley. They now have USC, an improved team, coming in after a big road win at Arizona. The Trojans have played every team tough, but it is interesting to see if Oregon State has enough to beat them at home in what should be a bounceback spot.

Utah / San Diego State - The Utes were hammered on the road by a banged up Notre Dame team. Utah showed absolutely no effort in that game from start to finish and let a weak defense dominated their offense. Now they have to play another road game against what is a very improved and quality team in San Diego State. The Aztecs played TCU tough last week and never gave up despite falling behind by a decent margin. They played TCU much better than Utah did, so will Utah bounce back here after being completely embarrassed two weeks in a row?

Saturday's Highlighted Games

Favorites covered all six UConn-Syracuse games, with home team 5-1 in those six games, and UConn winning four of six, including last three by an average score of 42-17. Huskies won last two games by combined five points, thanks to +6 turnover ratio in those games- they're 0-4 on road, with three losses by 13+ points. Dog is 5-0-1 in last six Syracuse games.

Underdogs were 8-0 vs spread in Wisconsin games this year, before last week's 83-20 Badger win- they're now 1-6 as favorite this season. Home side won last six Wisconsin-Michigan games; dogs are 6-2 vs spread in last eight. Badgers lost five in a row in Ann Arbor by an average score of 23-14- they won last five games overall. Michigan is 0-6 vs spread in its last six games- they're 1-1 as an underdog this year.

Ohio State won eight of last nine games vs Iowa, with none of last four here decided by less than 21 points; Buckeyes covered seven of last nine in series. Three of last four Iowa games were decided by 5 or less points; Hawkeyes are 0-1 as a dog this year. Ohio State won last three games by combined score of 139-24; they're 8-2 as a favorite this season. Last three Iowa games stayed under the total.

Arkansas won 10 of last 11 games vs Mississippi State, losing 31-28 in last visit here; underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in Hogs' last seven visits to Starkville. Arkansas covered last four games, winning by average score of 47-20- they're 4-1 as a favorite this year. State won six of last seven, but they're just 1-3 as a underdog this year. Last five Arkansas games went over the total. SEC single digit home underdogs are 5-3 vs spread.

Northwestern QB Persa tore his Achilles at end of Iowa game; Wildcats are in trouble at QB in neutral field game at Wrigley Field, vs Illinois club they've beaten six of last seven years. Illinois lost as 20-point favorite to Minnesota last week, after losing 67-65 in OT at Michigan week before that. Four of last five Illinois games went over total. Wildcats are 2-3 in their last five games.

Underdog is 10-2 vs spread in last 12 NC State-North Carolina games; Wolfpack won last three games vs Tar Heels; they're 3-2 in last five trips to Chapel Hill (dog 4-1 vs spread). Wolfpack lost last two road games, in OT at East Carolina, by point at Clemson; they're 4-1 vs spread as a dog this year. UNC is 4-1 as a favorite. ACC home faves of 8 or less points are 5-7 vs spread.

Stanford lost six of last seven Big Games to Cal, with underdogs covering three of last four; they've lost last four visits to Berkeley by 21-9-35-23 points, but Cardinal is the better team this year, winning last five games. Stanford is 5-3 as favorite this year, 3-1 on road- they've got road wins by 35-23-41-4 points. Cal lost 15-13 at home to Oregon, their first loss at home. Bears are 2-2 as an underdog this season.

Underdog is 7-2 vs spread in last nine Virginia Tech-Miami games; Tech won two of last three visits here, and is 8-0 since losing to I-AA team in early September. Hokies are 3-0 on road (BC-NC State-UNC), with all three wins by 11+ points. Hurricanes won four of their last five games, running ball for average of 225 yards/game. ACC home underdogs of 7 or less points are just 3-10 vs spread this season.

Pitt is 1-3 on road, losing by 3-6-2 points (only win 45-14 at Syracuse). Panthers are 3-1 as favorite this year. Pitt won last two games vs USF, 41-14/26-21- they've won two of three visits here. South Florida won its last three games, reversing trend of late-season collapses that they had in previous coaching regime. After scoring 9-6 points in consecutive losses, Bulls scored 28.7 ppg in its three-game win streak.

Oklahoma won last 13 games vs Baylor, covering five of last six visits to Waco (only non-cover was 35-0 win at -36). Sooners lost last two road games, giving up 36-33 points at Missouri/Texas A&M. Baylor gave up 41-42 points in losing last two games since beating Texas; Bears are 1-4 as an underdog this season. Four of last five Sooner games stayed under the total. Big 12 home underdogs of 8 or less points are 6-9 vs spread.

Texas A&M won/covered last four games, scoring 41.3 ppg; QB change has paid big dividends. Nebraska won last four games; they're 4-0 away from Lincoln, winning by 35-35-1-10 points. Huskers are 5-4 as a fave this season. Nebraska-A&M haven't played last two years; Cornhuskers are 4-1 in last five series games. Three of last four A&M games went over the total.

Home side won seven of last eight USC-Oregon State games, as Trojans lost last two visits here, 27-21/33-31. Underdog covered four of last five series games. Four of last six USC games were decided by three points or less. Oregon State had horrific home loss to Washington State last week, their third loss in last four games. Underdogs are 8-1 vs spread in OSU games this year, with Beavers 3-0 against the spread as an underdog.

Utah won/covered last four games vs San Diego State, winning by 40-9 average score, but Utes lost last two weeks, getting outscored 75-10 after their 8-0 start. Aztecs won four of last five games, losing 40-35 at TCU last week; they're 3-0 as an underdog this year. San Diego State is 3-0 at home, scoring 30.7 ppg. MWC single digit home dogs are 5-2 against the spread. Under is 6-2 in last eight San Diego State games.

Rest of the Card

-- Indiana lost 83-20 last week; they sold this home game to Penn State so game is in Maryland- not good. Hoosiers lost their last four games by average score of 41-16. Penn State is 3-2 as a favorite this year.
-- Tennessee is 12-1 in last 13 games vs Vanderbilt, winning last five at Vandy by average score of 33-16, but Commodores covered four of last five series games. Vols are 4-6, but won last two, scoring 50-52 points.
-- Florida State is 11-2 in last 13 games vs Maryland, with both losses here at home. Seminoles' last four games (2-2) were all decided by five or less points- they're 3-4 as a favorite, 1-1 on road.
-- Wake Forest lost last eight games (2-6 vs spread) with five losses by 31+ points. Home side won six of last seven Clemson-Wake games, with Tigers lost three of last four here. Clemson scored 12.3 ppg in last three games; kind of hard to lay 13 with a team like that.
-- Georgia Tech won last six games over Duke by average score of 38-12, covering last five. Duke is 4-2 in last six games as an underdog. Tech lost last three games, is 2-3 as a favorite this season.

-- Boston College won 14-10/28-17 in ACC matchups vs Virginia; BC won its last three games, allowing only 13 ppg; they're 2-2 as a fave, but 0-2 at home. Cavaliers lost last two games, allowing 97 points.
-- Cincinnati won last four games vs Rutgers by average score of 30-15, with underdog covering all four, but Bearcats lost last three games, giving up an average of 35 ppg. Seven of last eight Rutgers games were decided by five or less points, with Knights losing last two by 3-1.
-- Purdue lost last four games (1-3 vs spread) by average score of 38-10. Michigan State had last week off; they're 2-1 on road, winning by 17 at Michigan, 8 at Northwestern. Big 11 double digit home faves are 6-4.
-- Missouri won six of last seven vs Iowa State, winning last three by an average score of 43-24; dogs covered five of last six in series, and ISU's last four games overall. Tigers are 2-4 as a favorite this season.
-- Oklahoma State won at Texas last week, plays rival Oklahoma next, so sandwich here vs Kansas team that is 1-5 in last six games (trailed 45-17 in the win) but covered its last three games, losing by 12-17 points.

-- Northern Illinois won its last seven games (6-1 vs spread) by average score of 41-18; they're just 2-3 in last five games vs Ball State, winning by 6-12 points. Cardinals are 4-2 as an underdog this season.
-- Over is 8-2 in East Carolina games this year, with average total. 79.7. Pirates are 6-4 despite being favored only three times (2-1)- they allowed an average of 55.7 ppg in last three games. Rice is 2-6 in last eight games as an underdog- they gave up 53 ppg in their last three games.
-- Favorite covered all five Kent-Western Michigan games; Flashes lost last two visits here, 44-14/50-27. Kent lost last two games, allowing 36.5 ppg. Western Michigan is 1-2 as a favorite this season.
-- Home side won last six UTEP-Tulsa games; Miners lost last four in this stadium by average score of 41-23. Dogs covered four of last five in series. Tulsa won its last four games, covered its last six games.
-- Eastern Michigan is 3-0 vs Buffalo, winning by 24-3-4 points, but last meeting was 2005. Bulls lost last five games (0-5 vs spread) losing by an average of 32-9. Eastern lost seven of last eight games (over 6-2).

-- Favorites covered five of last six Colorado St-Wyoming games. Rams lost three of last four games; they're 0-5 on road (1-4 as road underdog). Wyoming lost its last six games (1-4-1 against the spread).
-- Idaho lost last three games by combined score of 160-41; Vandals lost last three games to Utah State by 3-25-5 points. Average total is 64.3 in last four series games. 4-6 Aggies won last two games by 5-4 points.
-- Home side won all three Marshall-SMU games; Herd lost 31-21 in its only visit here (+4.5). 4-6 Marshall won last three games, allowing 14.0 ppg; they're just 1-4 on road. SMU lost three of its last four games.
-- Central Florida had 5-game win streak snapped last week; they're 4-0 vs spread on road this year, winning by 14-21-7 points on foreign soil. Tulane gave up 95 points in its last two games; they're 4-3 as a dog.
-- Odd Senior Day for Colorado QB Hawkins, whose dad was fired by Buffs two weeks ago. Kansas State lost three of last four visits here; dog is 8-4 vs spread in last 12 series games. Home teams are 5-12-1 against spread in Big 12 games where the spread is less than 7 points.

-- Nevada scored 51.7 ppg in winning last three games; they covered one of last six as favorite and have home game with Boise coming up in just six days. New Mexico State covered four of its last five games.
-- Memphis lost last seven games; they're 0-6 vs spread in last six, 1-4 as road underdog. UAB allowed 134 points in last three games; they're 1-3 as a favorite this season. Four of last five Memphis games went over.
-- BYU scored 104 points in winning last two games, converting 23 of 30 3rd down plays; they're 3-2 as favorite this year. New Mexico covered four of last five games, but they've lost six games by 24+ points.
-- Notre Dame is 1-2 away from home this year, with only win 31-13 at Boston College. Army is 4-2 as an underdog this year. Over is 7-1-1 in Army games this season. This game is on neutral field in the Bronx.
-- Southern Miss is 7-2 in last nine games; they scored 43-49 points in the losses, both by one point, but they also had three players shot at a party last weekend; one is paralyzed, one had vocal chords meesed up. Houston is 3-5 since its top two QBs were knocked out for the year.

-- Underdog is 3-0 in West Virginia's road games, with WV losing its last two; two of the three went OT. Mountaineers won last three in series by 8-14-7 points, with average total in last five series games, 63.8.
-- Underdog is 11-2 vs spread in last 13 Ole Miss-LSU games, as Rebels won last two meetings, 25-23/31-13. Ole Miss allowed 40.3 ppg in last four games- they're 1-4 in last five games (all four losses by 13+ points).
-- Hawai'i had won/covered five in row before loss at Boise couple weeks ago. Underdog is 5-3 in last eight San Jose State-Hawai'i games; Spartans lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 37-18-9-24 points.
-- South Carolina clinched first SEC East title last week, has rivalry game with Clemson next week, figure to let down here, but Troy allowed 38.3 ppg in its last three games. Troy did lose 41-38 at 9-1 Oklahoma State.

-- Texas lost four in row, six of last seven games- they're 1-6 as favorite this year. FAU won its last two games by a point each; they're 3-2-1 as a dog this year. Texas will need to win this game and beat Texas A&M next week just to be bowl eligible.
-- Navy ran ball for 958 yards in last two games, scoring 114 points in wins by 1-41 points; they're 2-4 as favorites. Arkansas State scored 39.3 ppg in last four games; they're 3-2 as an underdog this season.
-- Western Kentucky is 5-2 vs spread in last seven games, with last two games decided by a point each. Middle Tennessee lost four of last five games; they're 2-4 as a favorite. Under is 7-1 in MTSU games this year.
-- FIU won four of last five games, but gave up 35 points in each of last two games; they're 1-3 as favorite. UL-Lafayette lost last five games but covered four of last five. Over is 7-3 in ULL games this season.
-- North Texas won two of three (3-0 vs spread) since changing coaches. UL-Monroe is 3-0 at home, but they gave up 93 points last two games. ULM won four of last five series games, with last three wins by 12+.

Big 10 Preview for Saturday, Nov. 20th
By Tom.Stryker

And now there are three. Northwestern’s late rally and upset of Iowa last Saturday leaves only a three-way tie atop the league standings. Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State all are 9-1 and 5-1 in Big Ten play with only two weeks of action remaining.

Wisconsin still is the highest rated of the three and carries the highest BCS standing (7th), but the Badgers have new detractors after they ran up 83 points a week ago against Indiana. None of the leaders plays each other this week or next week – but the upset bug could help decide this fall’s Big Ten championship.

Here’s a look at this week’s action.

Ohio State at IOWA

Coach Kirk Ferentz’ Hawkeyes are still smarting from the late loss to Northwestern and would like nothing more than to bump the Buckeyes from their lofty position. Iowa, 7-3, 4-2, is fourth in the nation in rushing defense – allowing only 86.8 yards a game. And it will take that kind of effort to slow Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes, 9-1, 5-1.

Already bowl eligible, the Hawkeyes could earn a more attractive holiday destination with the upset. But the Buckeyes are even better defensively than Iowa, yielding only 238 yards a game – second among all FBS schools.

Terrelle Pryor continues his assault on the OSU record book. The sophomore has passed for 2,138 yards thus far - his second consecutive 2,000-yard-plus season.

Ohio State has either won or shared the conference crown for five consecutive years.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Ohio State is 17-4-1 SU and 16-6 ATS in its last 22 meetings with Iowa including a spotless 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS provided the Hawkeyes check in off a straight up loss.

KEY ANGLES: Ohio State stands 44-6 SU and 34-15-1 ATS on foreign soil matched up against an opponent that checks in off a straight up loss 33-3 SU and 28-7-1 ATS in this role priced as a favorite of -23 or less.

Iowa owns a 54-11 SU and 38-20-2 ATS mark at home including a stunning 12-1 SU and 11-1 ATS in this role coming off a straight up loss.

Wisconsin at MICHIGAN

Rich Rodriguez’ Wolverines, 7-3, 3-3, can say plenty about who wins the Big Ten. After Saturday’s home finale against Wisconsin, UM travels to current co-leader Ohio State for the season finale.

Michigan’s defense, ridiculed all season long, allowed only 16 points in a victory at Purdue last week – and it will take an even better effort to slow down the powerful Badgers, 9-1, 5-1.

Fifth in the nation in total offense at 521.8 yards a game, Denard Robinson and company will need to put some points on the board to overcome Wisconsin. Robinson, with 1,417 rushing yards so far this year, needs only 78 more to become the top single-season quarterback rusher. Beau Morgan set the record for Air Force in 1996.

Wisconsin can counter with Scott Tolzien, who has completed 76.5% of his passes in the past four games. And the Badgers have that bruising running game as well. In fact, Wisconsin is the only team in the nation with three 500-+ rushers in John Clay (929), James White (714) and Montee Ball (513).

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Michigan is 18-6 SU but 9-14-1 ATS in the last 24 meetings with Wisconsin including a woeful 2-8 ATS if the Wolverines faced a conference foe last.

KEY ANGLES: Michigan is a horrendous 6-18 SU and 3-20-1 ATS in its last 24 Big 10 battles including a startling 3-6 SU and 0-9 ATS in this role coming off a straight up win.

Wisconsin is just 12-19 ATS in Big 10 play checking in with momentum off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.

Purdue at MICHIGAN STATE

Mark Dantonio’s Spartans can clinch at least a share of the Big Ten crown with a victory in West Lafayette Saturday and another next week at Penn State.

Michigan State is 9-1, 5-1 and mixes the pass and run extremely well. Sophomore Edwin Baker has rushed for 979 yards ant 11 TDs, while Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham are quarterback Kirk Cousins’ favorite targets. Dell has 123 catches for 2,100 yards in his career, while Cunningham has caught 130 passes for 1,696 yards. Cousins is 171 of 261 this fall, for 2,277 yards and 15 TDs.

Calling all quarterbacks! That is the battle cry for Purdue, who is dipping to No. 5 perhaps for this Saturday’s game. After losing their starter early in the season, Purdue has used Rob Henry, Sean Robinson and Justin Siller, who hadn’t taken a snap since 2008. All of them have various dings – or at least various deficiencies. Who will perform well Saturday is a major question. Danny Hopes’ Boilers are 4-6, 2-4, and have to upset Michigan State and then beat Indiana to become bowl eligible.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Michigan State rests 14-12-2 SU and 16-11-1 ATS in its last 28 against Purdue including a profitable 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in this role in its last 11 in East Lansing.

KEY ANGLES: Michigan State is a juicy 41-25 SU and 39-26-1 ATS at home from game eight of the season out including 25-5 SU and 21-9 ATS in this role matched up against a foe that checks in off a SU loss.

Purdue is 12-74 SU and 33-53- ATS in its last 86 on foreign soil facing a winning team.

Illinois vs Northwestern

This battle of Big Ten teams will be played at Wrigley Field, home of the Chicago Cubs. Northwestern, 7-3, 3-3, is the home team.

Coach Dan Fitgerald’s Wildcats went from euphoria to disappointment in a a matter of seconds last Saturday. Quarterback Dan Persa threw a late touchdown pass to beat Iowa, but tore his Achilles tendon without contact on the play. He is done for the season. Redshirt freshman Evan Watkins will start. At 6-6, 235 pounds, he is a physical presence, but he has only thrown 7 passes this season.

Illinois lost a chance to become bowl eligible last week, being upset 38-34 by Minnesota. Ron Zook’s Illini need this one. They close next Saturday at Fresno State. Nathan Scheelhaase continues to improve as the season goes on. The Illinois’ quarterback has completed 53 of 87 passes in his last four games, for 701 yards, 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Illinois holds a 16-14 SU and 11-19 ATS in its last 30 meetings against Northwestern including a miserable 5-14 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite.

KEY ANGLES: Northwestern is a rewarding 73-45-2 ATS priced as an underdog or a favorite of -3’ or less provided the Wildcats are matched up against a foe that checks in off a straight up loss.

Illinois is a woeful 23-48-1 SU and 28-42-1 ATS coming off a straight up home loss including a nasty 8-22-1 ATS in this role priced as a favorite or a underdog of +4 or less.

Penn State vs Indiana (at Landover, Md)

Go figure. The Hoosiers are the home team, but this matchup will be played at FedEx field in Landover, Md. Don’t be surprised if the crowd has a distinctive Penn State flavor to it – based on the distances from both schools.

Bill Lynch’s job status may be shaky at best after last week’s embarrassing 83-13 defeat at Wisconsin. And he needs a victory over Penn State and next week at Purdue to become bowl eligible.

Most of the IU hopes rest on the arm of Ben Chappell, who has 548 career completions, but who didn’t play in the second half after being banged up early against the Badgers. Indiana has not won a Big Ten game this season (6-4, 0-6).

After being crushed in the second half at Ohio State a week ago, Penn State wants to finish a victory over Indiana and then again next week at home against Michigan State to enhance its bowl stature. Matt McGloin likely will see most of the action at QB, while career rushing leader Evan Royster could have a banner outing against the porous Hoosier defense.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Penn State holds a commanding 13-0 SU and 7-6 ATS record in this series against Indiana.

KEY ANGLES: Penn State 19-9 SU and 17-10 ATS in its last 28 after allowing 30 points or more last.

Indiana is a soft 12-19-2 ATS priced as an underdog of +9’ or more when matched up against an opponent that scoots in off a SU and ATS loss.

NOTE: After tasting victory for only the second time this season in an upset of Illinois, Minnesota is idle this Saturday. The Gophers host Iowa next week.

College Football Top 25 Cheat Sheet: Week 12
By JON KUIPERIJ

Oklahoma State at Kansas (+24, 65)

Why Oklahoma State will cover: Kansas has been outclassed in Big 12 play, getting outscored 252-95 in conference games this season.

Why Kansas will cover: Potential letdown spot for Oklahoma State, which has played five consecutive tough games and has Oklahoma next week.

Purdue at Michigan State (-20, 48)

Why Purdue will cover: Boilermarkers defence is decent (forced five turnovers last week against Michigan) and can keep Purdue in the game.

Why Michigan State will cover: Spartans are coming off a bye and expect to have wide receiver and kick returner Keshawn Martin back after he missed two games with an ankle injury.

Wisconsin at Michigan (+4, 68)

Why Wisconsin will cover: Wisconsin scored 83 points against Indiana last weekend, and Michigan’s defense is ranked below than the Hoosiers.

Why Michigan will cover: Wolverines have won their past five home games against the Badgers, and Wisconsin star running back John Clay is questionable for Saturday.

Troy at South Carolina (-21.5, 58)

Why Troy will cover: Trojans have the 13th-ranked passing attack in the country and South Carolina has struggled against the pass. Letdown spot for Gamecocks after a huge win over Florida last week.

Why South Carolina will cover: Troy’s defense has been awful, surrendering an average of 509.3 yards per game over its last three contests.

Mississippi at LSU (-16.5, 51)

Why Mississippi will cover: Rebels are 7-0 ATS in their last seven visits to Death Valley. Tigers have been moneyburners in this role, going 5-15 ATS the last 20 times they were favored by more than 10 points.

Why LSU will cover: LSU won’t be playing in the SEC championship game, so it needs an impressive result on the scoreboard to move up the BCS rankings.

Virginia Tech at Miami (+2, 50)

Why Virginia Tech will cover: Hokies have been rolling ever since dropping their first two games of the season. Miami star QB Jacory Harris is expected to miss his third straight game (concussion).

Why Miami will cover: Hurricanes were embarrassed in 31-7 loss at VT last year and are gunning for revenge. Underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in the series.

Ohio State at Iowa (+3, 48.5)

Why Ohio State will cover: Buckeyes need a victory or their five-year run as Big Ten champions will likely end this year. Iowa’s Big Ten title hopes died with a loss at Northwestern last week.

Why Iowa will cover: It’s Senior Day at Iowa and QB Ricky Stanzi will look to cap his career with a strong effort. Hawkeyes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a home underdog.

Illinois at Northwestern (+8, 48.5)

Why Illinois will cover: Northwestern won’t have much of a home-field advantage in this game, since it’s being played at Wrigley Field. Wildcats starting QB Dan Persa is out after injuring his Achilles celebrating last week’s win over Iowa.

Why Northwestern will cover: The Wildcats have beaten Northwestern straight up in six of the last seven meetings and covered eight of their last 10 contests with the Illini.

Stanford at California (+6.5, 50.5)

Why Stanford will cover: Cardinal seek revenge against a Cal squad that ended their Rose Bowl dreams last year.

Why California will cover: Bears defence has been dynamite at home, holding Oregon to 15 points last week. Cal has beaten Stanford in seven of last eight meetings.

New Mexico State at Nevada (-38, 60.5)

Why New Mexico State will cover: Nevada plays Boise State next week, so the Wolf Pack might get conservative with a big lead in the second half and rest some of its stars.

Why Nevada will cover: Injuries mean Aggies will likely start freshman Andrew Manley at QB and sophomore Robert Clay at running back.

Arkansas at Mississippi State (+3, 53)

Why Arkansas will cover: Bulldogs defense allowed three 45-plus-yard touchdowns last week to Alabama, bad news when Ryan Mallett is coming to town. Mississippi State is 0-3 against Top-25 teams this year.

Why Mississippi State will cover: Home team has won the last eight meetings in the series and underdog is on an 11-4 ATS run.

Missouri at Iowa State (+11, 52.5)

Why Missouri will cover: Iowa State lost starting QB Austen Arnaud to a career-ending injury last week and will start sophomore Jerome Tiller against the Tigers.

Why Iowa State will cover: Missouri’s defense is banged up. The Cyclones are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 as underdogs of more than 10 points.

Oklahoma at Baylor (+7.5, 64.5)

Why Oklahoma will cover: Sooners have never lost to Baylor in 19 meetings, winning seven of the past eight by 26 points or more.

Why Baylor will cover: Oklahoma has allowed 69 points in its last two road games, both losses, and injuries have depleted its defensive line.

Nebraska at Texas A&M (+2, 54.5)

Why Nebraska will cover: Huskers defense looks as dominant as ever, holding Kansas to 15 passing yards and 87 total yards last week.

Why Texas A&M will cover: Aggies are 4-0 straight up and against the spread since Ryan Tannehill became their starting QB.

Utah at San Diego State (+2.5, 55.5)

Why Utah will cover: Utah has won four straight over San Diego State by a combined 162-35, including 38-7 last year.

Why San Diego State will cover: Motivation. Utes haven’t recovered from being crushed by TCU two weeks ago, while San Diego State is gunning for its first 10-win season since 1977.

Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview
By: Jeff Mattingly

Wisconsin is likely headed to Pasadena if it wins out and will be looking to pick up the program’s first win in Ann Arbor in six tries. The Badgers are 6-21-1 all-time at Michigan and are coming off a 83-20 blowout victory over the Indiana Hoosiers last week. “Bottom line? On Saturday, Indiana had some turnovers,” head coach Brett Bielema said. “We didn’t. I think it was a point of emphasis that our guys carried forward in the game.” After forcing just seven miscues in the first eight games, the team has forced seven turnovers in the last two games and scored points off of each of them, totaling 45 points. This team is also extremely disciplined in leading the country in fewest penalties per game, averaging just 3.1 flags per game. Wisconsin is 4-5 ATS as a road favorite.

The Badgers ran for 338 yards last week despite missing leading rusher John Clay, who is recovering from a sprained right knee that he suffered versus Purdue. Wisconsin has three players that have rushed for over 500 yards, which is a testament to the depth this program possesses. “I don’t know if we’ll have that three-headed thing this week because I think John won’t be at full strength,” said Bielema. It’s probably not going to matter and the team is likely to win its sixth-straight conference game and improve upon its current No. 7 ranking in the BCS standings.

Michigan enters off two consecutive Big Ten wins over Illinois and Purdue, pushing its record to 7-3 overall and 3-3 in conference play. The Wolverines will need a huge performance out of star quarterback Denard Robinson, but many experts believe he’s hit a wall, signaled by gaining just 130 yards on the ground combined over the last two weeks. “There’s pretty good people he’s playing against, but I don’t think he’s hit a wall,” said head coach Rich Rodriguez. “I just think he had some bad moments in the last game.” He will need to step is game up even further in facing the 25th-best rushing defense in the nation, giving up 125.1 yards per game. Michigan is 3-19 ATS against conference opponents the last three years.

The Wolverines will be facing the Badgers in November for the 27th time in the series, tallying a dominating 19-6-1 record in those games. “I hope we’re getting a little confidence, but with a young team, every week is a new experience,” said Rodriguez. “With the young guys, we can’t make them bigger, stronger, faster, but you can get more experience.” The third-year head coach has a 14-21 career mark against top 25 squads, but is just 1-8 against them while at Michigan.

Bettors will likely back the Badgers due to their 4-2 ATS mark against conference opponents, while the Wolverines are 0-5 ATS off a win against a conference rival.

Game of the day: Nebraska at Texas A&M
By MARC LAWRENCE

It’s North versus South in a Big 12 showdown Saturday night when Nebraska meets Texas A&M in College Station.

Difference maker

Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill is a very unique college football player.

He had 1,453 yards as a receiver in his first two years in the program. Now he’s the starting quarterback.

Tannehill replaced Big 12 Conference preseason offensive player of the year Jerrod Johnson midway through the October 23rd game against Kansas, and since then the Aggies have been on a roll.

Tannehill had four TD passes and a school record 449 yards passing in a win over Texas Tech before leading A&M to an upset victory over Oklahoma.

Johnson was expected to lead the Aggies’ offense this season, but he admitted last week that he’s still not 100 percent after having off-season shoulder surgery.

Johnson has thrown for 14 touchdowns this season, but he also has nine interceptions. Tannehill has 10 TD passes with three interceptions while playing almost exclusively under center.

Johnson said he has a great relationship with Tannehill.

“If it was anybody else I think it would be tougher, but me and Ryan have been through a lot,” Johnson said. “Just the respect I have for him, not only as a player, but as a person. We have a great relationship and he’s worked hard.

“He’s probably one of the most selfless people on our team. He’s caught tons of passes for me and boosted my stats and won games for me or whatever you want to call it. He’s always been there for me so in a situation like this I’d like to think I’ll always be there for him.”

Break a leg

A&M head coach Mike Sherman has also found a second difference-maker.

Four games ago at Kansas, Sherman decided to switch up his tandem tailback system and give Cyrus Gray his first start of the season.

Gray debuted in impressive fashion, rushing for 117 yards on 13 carries in a 45-10 rout.

But it's been in the last two games that Gray has played the lead back because of running mate Christine Michael’s broke his break his leg.

"I said, ‘We're going to have to lean on you,'" Sherman recalled telling Gray after Michael, then the Aggies' leading rusher, was lost for the season on October 30 against Texas Tech.

"And there's no one I'd rather lean on than him, because I trust him so much. He just does everything the way it's supposed to be done. He's certainly upheld his part of the bargain."

Gray followed up his showing at Kansas by gaining 102 yards on 16 carries against Tech, and then started his solo act by carrying 21 times for 122 yards against Oklahoma. Last week against Baylor, he had 28 carries for 137 yards, the most by an Aggie running back since 2005.

Saturday night against Nebraska, Gray will be trying to become the first A&M player in 20 years to have five straight 100-yard games. Gray leads A&M in rushing yards (673), rushing touchdowns (10) and all-purpose yards (1,268).

Up for the challenge

Nebraska holds a one-game lead over Missouri in the Big 12 North and can close out the Tigers with either a win tonight or next week in its season finale in Lincoln against Colorado.

The Huskers face off against the No. 1 rush defense in the Big 12. The Aggies surrender 112 rushing yards per game and have made huge strides from last year’s unit, one that allowed 171 YPG on the ground.

"They play an odd front and they've done a really nice job,” Nebraska offensive coordinator Shawn Watson said.

"I think they have great personnel obviously. That's where you always begin. The second thing, they are well put together. They tie the back end and the front end well, and really make you earn your way down the field. They're playing it really well. They're a totally different defense now than a year ago."

Watson mentioned he has been impressed this season with quarterback Taylor Martinez's ability to make throws in pressure situations.

"He had a really nice week last week with his decision making, and made some key throws on third down. Throughout the whole season he's being really good in those pressure throw situations like third down."

Second to one

Nebraska’s strength is its defense, one which ranks sixth in the nation overall.

The core of the stop-unit is the Huskers’ secondary, allowing 153 passing yards per game. Only TCU surrenders fewer yards through the air.

Nebraska junior cornerback Alfonzo Dennard is impressed with how Texas A&M quarterback Tannehill "puts the ball on the money."

Of course, Nebraska's pass defense specializes in cooling off quarterbacks.

Washington's Jake Locker and Texas' Garrett Gilbert were a combined 8-for-36 passing against the Huskers. Missouri's Blaine Gabbert was 18-for-42 against the Big Red secondary.

A&M has some talented wide receivers, including Jeff Fuller, who is averaging nearly 100 yards receiving a game.

That only makes Dennard more excited for the game.

"I love that challenge," Dennard said. "That's what I'm here for, to go out against the best."

Looking back

• The Huskers are 10-3 straight up all-time in this series, including 4-0 straight up and against the spread in conference play when the Aggies are playing off a double-digit victory in their last game.

• Nebraska is 7-0 against the spread as a conference favorite of less than 10 points under Pelini.

• Pelini is 2-7 against the spread as a conference favorite when playing off back-to-back wins.

• The Aggies are 15-6-2 against the spread in games in which they score more than 24 points, and 0-11 games they don’t, under Mike Sherman.

• Texas A&M is 14-1-2 against the spread as a conference home dog versus an opponent off a win of six or more points.

Tips and Trends

Ohio St. Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes

BUCKEYES: (-3, O/U 48) Ohio St. just might be the most underrated 1 loss team in the nation. The Buckeyes are 9-1 SU this season, with their lone loss coming on the road at Wisconsin. Otherwise, Ohio St. has won every game they've played by double digits. The Buckeyes also have one of the best records at 8-2 ATS this year. Ohio St. is only 1-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. QB Terrelle Pryor is a candidate for the Heisman Trophy this year. Pryor has nearly 2,650 total yards to his credit, along with 26 TD's this year. Pryor leads an offense that is averaging 41.6 PPG, 6th best in the nation. Ohio St. is even better on offense, allowing the 5th fewest points in the nation at 13.6 PPG. The Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in November. Ohio St. is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Buckeyes are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team with a winning home record. Ohio St. is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS win. The Buckeyes are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 conference games. Ohio St. is 39-18 ATS in their last 57 games following a SU win.

Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a road favorite up to a field goal.
Over is 9-3 last 12 games played in November.

Key Injuries - DB Christian Bryant (infection) is out.

Projected Score: 21

HAWKEYES: Iowa is coming off a shocking 17-21 SU loss to Northwestern, and they will need to bounce back quickly. Getting up for Ohio St. shouldn't be a problem however. Iowa lost to Ohio St. last year 24-27 SU. Iowa would like nothing more than to win their final home game of the season against their arch rival. The Hawkeyes are 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS overall this year. Today will be the first time this season that Iowa will be the listed home underdog. In fact, Iowa has only been the listed underdog once this season, a SU and ATS loss at Arizona. Iowa is loaded with skill players, starting with QB Ricky Stanzi. Stanzi has thrwon for nearly 2,500 YDS and 22 TD's this year. RB Adam Robinson has rushed for more than 900 YDS and 10 TD's this season. Defensively, Iowa is allowing just 15 PPG, 7th fewest in the nation. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Iowa is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Hawkeyes are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The Hawkeyes are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games following a SU loss. Iowa is 15-6 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played in November.

Hawkeyes are 8-2 ATS last 10 games as a home underdog.
Under is 12-4-1 last 17 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - WR Colin Sandeman (undisclosed) is questionable.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears

SOONERS: (-7.5, O/U 64.5) Oklahoma is 8-2 SU this year and ranked 14th in the nation heading into tonight. The Sooners have lost both of their games on the road this season. Oklahoma is 5-5 SU this season, including 2-2 ATS as a single digit favorite. Oklahoma is still hoping to qualify for a BCS bowl berth, and they feel road wins in their last 2 games will get them there. QB Landry Jones has been impressive this year, throwing for more than 3,000 YDS and 27 TD's this year. RB DeMarco Murray has rushed for more than 900 YDS and 13 TD's this season. Oklahoma is averaging 35 PPG this season, 20th in the country. The Sooners have been inconsistent on defense, and they will need to be ready for this high powered Baylor offense. The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Oklahoma is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games. The Sooners are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win. Oklahoma is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. The Sooners are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Oklahoma is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.

Sooners are 8-3 ATS last 11 games in November.
Under is 7-3 last 10 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Key Injuries - RB DeMarco Murray (ribs) is probable.

Projected Score: 41 (OVER-Total of the Day)

BEARS: Baylor has had an impressive season, even with losing their past 2 games. The Bears are 7-4 SU this year, including 4-1 SU at home. Baylor is also 5-6 SU this season, including 1-4 ATS as the listed underdog. Baylor ranks in the top 25 in both their passing and rushing offense. QB QB Robert Griffin III is the biggest reason why, as he's an electrifying talent that fills the seats. Griffin has passed for more than 3,000 YDS and rushed for more than 500 YDS this season, including 28 total TD's. The Bears are averaging 33.4 PPG, 29th best in the country. The Bears have been dominated by Oklahoma through the years, so they'd like nothing more than to beat them at home in their final game of the year. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. Baylor is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. The Bears are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games played in November. Baylor is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Bears are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as a home underdog. Baylor is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on fieldturf.

Bears are 11-4 ATS last 15 games following a SU loss.
Under is 13-6 last 19 games as a home underdog.

Key Injuries - None Reported.

Projected Score: 34