NCAAF News and Notes Saturday 11/21

NCAAF Top Games

Michigan lost last six games vs I-A teams, allowiing 37.2 ppg in last five; they were outscored 49-19 in second half of last four games. Tressel has won seven of eight games in this rivalry, taking last five in row, winning last two visits to this site, 25-21/14-3. Ohio State is 6-3 vs spread this year, 1-1 on road- they're +9 in turnovers last four games. Big 11 home underdogs are 5-6 vs spread.

Northern Illinois-Ohio could be play-in game for Toronto Bowl; NIU is 0-3 in its last three visits to Athens, where Bobcats are just 1-2 in 2009. Ohio U won five of its last six games overall, with four of its six wins by three or less points, or in OT. Huskies won last four games, allowing 12 ppg in last three- they outscored last three opponents 44-17 in second half. Last five Ohio games, three of last four NIU games stayed under.

Home side won last four Wisconsin-Northwestern games; Badgers lost last visit here 51-48; they've also won won last three games, scoring 37-31-45 points, but they're 2-1 on road, with both wins by field goal each. Wildcats' last three losses are all by 10+ points; they've won five of last seven games, with under 5-1-1 in those games. Northwestern is 3-2 in its home games, 4-2 vs spread in last six games as underdog.

Iowa lost last two games after 9-0 start, losing in OT at Ohio State last week; Hawkeyes won four of last five vs Minnesota, winning 55-0 LY, taking last two played here, 52-28/21-16. Seven of last eight Minnesota games went over total. Big 11 home favorites are 10-16 against spread. Gophers didn't score TD on offense in tense 16-13 win vs I-AA South Dakota State last week. Iowa is 2-3 as home favorite this season.

Butch Davis won his last seven vs Boston College, but this is Tar Heels' first visit to BC; North Carolina won last three games, running ball for 163 yards/game. Heels are +9 in turnovers their last five games. BC won all five home games, is 3-0 as home favorite; they were held to 7-14-16 points in their three losses. Eagles' last three games stayed under total. ACC home favorites are 10-14 against the spread.

Georgia is 16-2 in last 18 games vs Kentucky, winning last two between hedges 45-13/24-13; Wildcats' last win here was '77, but they're 4-1 last five games and 4-0 vs spread in last four road games, 2-0 as a road dog. Georgia is 1-4 vs spread as favorite this year; kast week was their first game with positive turnover ratio (-14 for season). SEC home favorites are 9-15 against the spread this season.

Arkansas won nine of last ten games vs Mississippi State, winning last two played here, 44-10/45-31; Hogs scored 50.7 ppg in winning its last three games- they're 2-2 as favorite, are +11 in turnovers last six games. State won last three road games; they're 4-3 as underdog, 2-1 on road, but are just 5 for last 34 on third down. Arkansas is 2-4 in SEC, winning by 21-17 points. SEC home favorites are 9-15.

UConn lost last three games by total of 10 points; they've allowed 30.4 ppg in last five games, with last four games going over (last four Notre Dame games stayed under). Huskies have no takeaways in last couple of games, are -6 in turnovers in last three. Irish failed to cover last seven as a favorite, going 2-3 SU in last five- they scored three first half points in last two games. Big East non-conference underdogs are 8-2, 4-2 on road.

Michigan State won five of last seven games, scoring 34-40-49 points in last three; three of their five '09 losses are by three or less points. Penn State won four of last five games vs Spartans, but is 2-4 in last six visits here; Lions are 3-0 on road, winning by 18-25-21 points. Under is 8-1-1 in Penn State's last ten games. Big 11 home underdogs are 5-6 vs spread. Penn State won five of last six games vs I-A opponents.

Arizona State had four defensive TDs in 34-9 win over UCLA LY; Sun Devils lost last four games this year by average score of 29-16-- they're 1-2 as road dog, losing away games by 3-19-23 points. Bruins won last two games; they've thrown ball for 311+ yards in four of last five games. ASU is 3-2 in last five series games, splitting last two at this site, with average total in the five games, 50.6.

Stanford lost six of last seven games vs Cal, with home side winning four of last five; Cardinal scored 46.3 ppg in winning last three weeks, with an upset of USC last week (last two teams that beat USC lost their next game)- they ran ball for 249+ yards in last three games. Stanford is 5-0 as a favorite this year, 4-0 at home. Cal won four of last five games; they've allowed 42-31-30 in losses, are 3-1 SU on road this season.

LSU won six of last seven games vs Ole Miss, winning last two here by 40-7/41-24 scores, but Rebels won 41-24 in Baton Rouge LY, in Nutt's first series game as Ole Miss coach. Tigers were held to 3-15 points in their two losses; they need Jefferson at QB (Lee was 7-22 last week in shaky win vs La Tech). Ole Miss is 3-0 as home favorite but are -11 in turnovers last seven games, with only one INT in last four games.

Home side won nine of last 11 and last five Oklahoma-Texas Tech games with Sooners losing last two visits here, 23-21/34-27. Sooners are 1-4 on road, 1-3 as road favorite- seven of their last nine games stayed under the total, as have three of Raiders' last four. Tech is 0-4 when it scores 30 or less points. Oklahoma's last two opponents completed 22 of 54 passes. Big 12 home underdogs are 6-11 against spread.

Arizona is 4-0 at home, with three wins by 13+ points; they're 1-2 as an underdog- opponents are just 5 for last 35 on 3rd down. Oregon scored 44 ppg in last four games, but they split their four games on foreign soil. Ducks ran ball for 217+ yards in each of last eight games. Seven of last nine Oregon games went over the total. Pac-10 home underdogs are 8-6 against the spread.

Rest of the Card

-- Clemson won, covered last four games vs I-A teams by average score of 40-22, with last three games going over. Virginia lost last four games (0-3-1 vs spread) scoring just 13.3 ppg.

-- Home team won last five Louisville-USF games; Cardinals lost last two visits here, 45-14/55-17. South Florida was awful last week, getting thrashed 31-0 by Rutgers on ESPN, Bulls' third loss in last four games.

-- Rutgers won last four games vs Syracuse by average score of 36-12; Knights won last three games, outscoring foes 51-13 in first half. Orange lost five of last six ganes, with four of last five losses by 14+ points.

-- Purdue won four of last five games vs Indiana, beating rival 62-10 last year, but losing last visit here 27-24; Boilers are 1-3 on road- underdogs are 7-2-1 vs spread in their last ten games. Indiana is 6-3 as underdog.

-- 5-5 Florida State needs this win to go to bowl, seeing as Florida is next up for them; Seminoles won three of last four games, with last six going over total- they've given up 37.2 ppg in last five.

-- NC State lost five of last six games, with three of last four losses by 20+ points; they allowed 40.1 ppg in last seven games, with all seven going over total. Virginia Tech allowed total of 12 points last two games.

-- Missouri won five of last six games vs Iowa State, winning last two at Mizzou 27-24/42-28; Tigers lost last three home games. Seven of their last nine games stayed under. Iowa State scored 11 ppg last four games.

-- Tennessee is 25-1 in last 26 games vs Vanderbilt, but last two played here were decided by total of five points; Vandy lost last seven games, but is 3-0 as road dog. Four of Vols' five wins are by 18+ points.

-- Temple won its last eight games, covering four of last five and last four going over total; they're 2-2 as home favorite. Kent covered six of its last seven games (3-0 last three as dog), MAC home favorites are 11-9.

-- TCU crushed Utah last week, its fifth cover in row; they're 3-1 as road favorite, and beat Wyoming 54-7 LY after losing its last visit here 24-21. Cowboys were outscored 48-6 in second half of their last two games.

-- Oregon State won five of last six games; they're 2-3 as favorite, 0-1 on road. Washington State lost its last two games to Beavers 52-17/66-13; Coogs allowed 40+ points in last four games.

-- BYU won last five games vs Air Force by 19-point average, with an average total of 61. Falcons won last three games, scoring 38 ppg- they haven't lost a game this year by more than seven points.

-- UAB won last three games, scoring 41.7 ppg; they're 4-1 when they score 30+ points, 1-4 when they don't. Blazers are 1-4 as road dog; four of their five losses are by 13+. C-USA home favorites are 9-10.

-- Kansas State is 0-4 on road, losing on the road by 2-14-52-12 points. Nebraska won its last four games vs Kansas State, winning last two 73-31/ 56-28; Huskers won last three games, allowing just 10 ppg.

-- Home side won four of last five Baylor-Texas A&M games; Bears lost last two visits here, 16-13/34-10, are 2-1-1 as road dog despite being 1-5 in last six games. Four of A&M's five wins are by 25+ points.

-- UTEP lost last three games to Rice by 6-8-5 points; average total in last five series games in 79. Miners lost last three games; they allowed 35+ points in five of last six. Owls are 2-7 vs spread as an underdog.

-- Utah won its last three games vs San Diego State by 31-16-49 points; they had two defensive TDs LY, but Utes are in TCU/BYU sandwich, while Aztecs are 3-0 against spread as a road underdog this season.

-- Underdog covered last five Louisiana Tech-Fresno games; Fresno won five of last six games, with last four staying under total. Tech lost four in a row, all by 10 or less points. WAC home favorites are 11-6.

-- New Mexico is 0-10, Colorado State lost last seven games; underdog is 5-0 vs spread in last five series games. Rams are 0-3 as a favorite in '09; they were outscored 100-22 in second half of last four games.

-- SMU won last three games, scoring 31 ppg; they're bowl eligible and 5-1 as an underdog, 3-1 on road. Marshall lost three of last four games-- they don't have a takeaway in last three. C-USA home faves are 9-10.

-- Tulsa won last two games vs Southern Mississippi 20-6/34-17, but Golden Hurricane lost last five games, getting whacked by East Carolina Sunday night. Southern Miss covered last three games as a favorite.

-- Kansas lost last five games, failed to cover last seven; they got beat by Texas 66-14/35-7 in last two meetings. Longhorns covered four of its last five games but they're just 1-4 against spread as a home favorite.

-- Duke scored total of 16 points in losing last two games, getting shut out in second half both games; they're 2-2 as a road dog. Miami won last four series games by average score of 36-17; they're 2-1 as home fave.

-- Road team covered six of last seven Memphis-Houston games, with Tigers winning last three visits here, but Memphis is in tank, losing last four games. Cougars allowed 43-45-37 points in last three games.

-- Tulane lost five of last six games; six of their last seven stayed under the total- they're 1-3 as a road underdog. Central Florida is 3-1 as a fave this season. C-USA home favorites are 9-10 against the spread.

-- Nevada won last seven games (5-2 vs spread); they outscored foes in second half 66-14 last three games, and won last six visits to Las Cruces by average score of 39-23. Aggies outscored 148-16 in last four games.

-- San Jose State lost seven of last eight games vs Hawai'i; Warriors won last two visits here, 45-38/42-35. Spartans are 0-8 vs I-A teams this year failing to cover last six. Hawai'i lost its last four road games.

-- FIU covered one of last five games as underdog; they allowed 1,100 yards in last two games, now have to face Gators (1-4 vs spread in last five games), who are in South Carolina/Florida State sandwich.

-- Army won its last two games vs North Texas, but lost three in a row vs I-A teams by 14-17-28 points. Only teams UNT has beaten this year are Ball State/Western Kentucky. Seven of last nine UNY tilts went over

-- Troy won seven of last eight games, with four of last five going over total, as did FAU's last four road games; Troy is 4-0 as a home favorite. Owls are 2-3 as road dog, losing away games by 46-22-27 points.

-- Road team won last four Monroe-Lafayette games, as Warhawks won last two visits here, 39-20/17-11. Sun Belt home dogs are 3-4 against the spread. Monroe won five of its last seven games.

-- Arkansas State lost last three visits to Middle Tennessee by 28-38-17 points; they're 1-7 vs I-A teams this year, losing last three by 8-3-17 pts MTSU won last four games, scoring 42.8 ppg; they're 4-0 as home fave.

(9) Ohio State (9-2, 8-3 ATS) at Michigan (5-6, 4-6 ATS)

Having wrapped up another Big Ten championship, the Buckeyes now turn their focus to continuing their dominance of hated Michigan as these rivals meet in the Big House in Ann Arbor.

Ohio State held off Iowa 27-24 in overtime last week for its fourth straight victory, and despite failing to cover as a hefty 16½-point home favorite, the Buckeyes clinched their fifth consecutive Big Ten title and earned their first Rose Bowl berth since 1996. Ohio State’s run defense, which ranks fourth in the nation, continued to dominate, allowing just 67 rushing yards on 24 attempts, and while Hawkeyes freshman James Vandenberg passed for 233 yards, he also was picked three times, the last coming in the end zone on Iowa’s first overtime possession, ending the game. Ohio State has scored at least 24 points in all nine wins – tallying 30 or more seven times – while managing just 15 and 18 points in its two losses.

The Wolverines surrendered 17 unanswered points to turn a competitive 28-24 game into a 45-24 lopsided loss at Wisconsin last week, failing to cover as a 16½-point underdog. Michigan has now dropped four in a row SU and ATS and is winless in its last six conference games, and Rich Rodriguez’s defense is allowing 35 points, 444 total yards and 197 rushing yards per game in Big Ten play. A loss today ensures the Wolverines will finish with consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1962-63.

Ohio State has owned this rivalry since Jim Tressel came on board as coach, winning seven of eight meetings – including the last five in a row – while going 6-2 ATS. Last year, the Buckeyes took a 14-7 lead into the locker room at halftime, then came out and scored 28 unanswered points to win 42-7 as a 20 ½-point home favorite.

Ohio State is also 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five trips to Ann Arbor, winning and cashing in the last two, including a 14-3 victory as a four-point favorite in 2007. However, this is the first time the Buckeyes will be a double-digit favorite at the Big House; the last time they were a road chalk of more than a touchdown was in 1995, when they lost outright 31-23 giving nine points. Finally, the winner has covered in eight of the last nine series meetings.

The Buckeyes are on ATS runs of 37-18 overall, 20-6 on the road, 38-18 as a favorite, 17-4 as a road chalk, 6-2 when laying more than 10 points, 5-1 in November and 5-0 after a non-cover. Michigan has failed to cover in six of its last seven games and is 0-6 ATS in its last six Big Ten home games. Furthermore, the Wolverines are in pointspread dips of 3-14 in conference action, 3-7 as a ‘dog, 2-8 after a SU loss, 0-4 in November and 2-5 versus winning teams.

The over is 8-2 in Ohio State’s last 10 November contests, but otherwise the Buckeyes are on “under” surges of 7-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 on the road, 5-2-1 as a favorite and 11-2 against teams with a losing record. Michigan carries nothing but “over” trends, including 6-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 13-4-1 in November, 9-3 as an underdog and 5-1 on artificial turf. Also, five of the last six in this rivalry have topped the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and OVER

(17) Wisconsin (8-2, 4-5 ATS) at Northwestern (7-4, 4-6)

Wisconsin shoots for its fourth consecutive victory and at least a tie for second place in the Big Ten as it caps the conference campaign with a trip to Evanston, Ill., for a conference clash with the Wildcats.

The Badgers broke open a 28-24 game against Michigan last week, scoring the final 17 points en route to a 45-24 victory as a 16½-point home favorite. Wisconsin has won three in a row (2-1 ATS) since losing consecutive games to then-No. 9 Ohio State and then-No. 11 Iowa – the only two ranked teams the Badgers have faced this year. This is just the fourth road game for Wisconsin, which finishes the season with a non-conference game at Hawaii on Dec. 5.

Wisconsin has averaged 37.7 ppg during its three-game winning streak and has scored 28 points or more in its eight wins while managing just 23 combined points in the losses to Ohio State and Iowa.

A week after handing eighth-ranked Iowa its first loss of the season (17-10 as a 15-point road underdog, Northwestern went to Illinois and sprinted out to a 21-3 lead and held on for a 21-6 victory as a five-point road pup. QB Mike Kafka, who has been dealing with a hamstring injury, led the charge by going 23-for-37 for 305 yards with one TD and no INTs, and he also rushed for a score as the Wildcats improved to 5-2 in their last seven games (3-4 ATS). However, Northwestern has failed to cover in all five home games this year, going 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS when hosting Big Ten rivals.

This is the first meeting between these schools since 2006, when the Badgers rolled to a 41-9 win as a 19½-point home chalk. Still, Northwestern is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including cashing in five straight at home against the Badgers, all as an underdog. That includes outright upsets in 2005 (51-48 as a 6½-point ‘dog) and 2003 (16-7 as a 10-point pup). Since that 2003 contest, the host is 4-0 SU and ATS in this rivalry.

Wisconsin is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when laying between 3½ and 10 points, going 4-1 ATS in the last five as a road favorite in that range, but otherwise the Badgers are in ATS ruts of 4-11 on the road, 1-5 against teams with a winning record and 3-7 when playing on grass. Although they’ve yet to cover a pointspread at home this year, the Wildcats are still on ATS runs of 7-1 as an underdog dating to last year, 20-6 as a pup of 3 ½ to 10 points, 7-1 as a home ‘dog in that range and 4-0 in November.

The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these schools, and Wisconsin carries “over” trends of 9-4 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 11-4 as a favorite, 4-1 as a road chalk and 4-0 in November. Conversely, for the Wildcats, the “under” is on stretches of 5-2 overall, 4-0 in November and 7-1 as an underdog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

North Carolina (7-3, 4-4 ATS) at Boston College (7-3, 6-3 ATS)

North Carolina hopes to damage the division titles hopes of an ACC opponent for the second straight week when it travels to Boston College, looking to become the first visitor this year to win at Alumni Stadium.

The Tar Heels dumped 12th-ranked Miami (Fla.) 33-24 last week as a three-point home underdog, clinching their second consecutive bowl berth in the process. Both teams finished with 116 rushing yards, and although Miami had a 319-213 edge in passing, North Carolina picked off Hurricanes QB Jacory Harris four times, the only turnovers in the game. It marked just the second time this season that the Tar Heels’ stout defense yielded more than 17 points.

Boston College is coming off come-from-behind 14-10 win at Virginia last week, coming up just short as a 4½-point road favorite. The Eagles have held their last four opponents to an average of 15 points (going 3-1 SU and ATS), but the inconsistent offense has now scored 16 points or fewer in four games this year while producing 27 points or more in the other six contests. They’re 6-0 at home this year (5-0 ATS in lined games), winning by an average of 24 ppg (37.7-13.7).

Boston College (4-2, 3-3 ATS in the ACC) still has an outside shot of winning the ACC Atlantic Division title, but it must beat North Carolina today and Maryland next week and hope Clemson loses at home today to Virginia. Georgia Tech has already clinched the Coastal Division title.

The Tar Heels routed then-No. 23 Boston College 45-24 as a 2½-point home favorite last season and they’ve won and covered both meetings since joining the ACC, but both were in Chapel Hill.

Not only is Boston College unbeaten at home this year, it is 27-4 SU in its last 31 in Chestnut Hill. Additionally, the Eagles have won 15 of 19 ACC home games since leaving the Big East for the ACC. They’ve now cashed in seven straight lined home games and are on additional pointspread upticks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 as a favorite and 4-1 against winning teams. North Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road underdog, including a 20-17 upset win at No. 14 Virginia Tech as a 15½-point underdog in its last roadie.

The under is 5-1 in UNC’s last six road games, but the over is 6-2 in its last eight as a ‘dog, while B.C. is on “over” tears of 7-3 at home, 13-6 as a home chalk and 4-1 in ACC play.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE and OVER

(13) Penn State (9-2, 4-6 ATS) at Michigan State (6-5, 4-5-1 ATS)

Penn State, hoping to lock up a New Year’s Day bowl berth, ends its regular season with a visit to Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Mich., for a Big Ten battle with Michigan State, which is gunning for its third straight victory.

The Nittany Lions climbed out of an early 10-0 hole at Indiana last week and prevailed 31-20, but came up short as a 24½-point home favorite. A week after getting crushed by Ohio State 24-7 at home to end its Big Ten title dreams, Penn State was sloppy with the football, committing four turnovers. Still, Joe Paterno’s squad managed to register its ninth double-digit win of the season. In fact, 19 of the Lions’ 20 victories since the start of the 2008 season – and the last 11 in a row – have been by more than 10 points.

Michigan State was dominated in the box score at Purdue last week, yet rallied from an 11-point deficit and gutted out a 40-37 victory to become bowl-eligible. The Spartans, who pushed as a three-point road chalk, finished with just 12 first downs and 362 total yards while the defense yielded 28 first downs and 524 total yards to the Boilermakers. Michigan State is 5-2 SU in its last seven, but 1-3-1 ATS in its last five (all as a favorite), including 0-3-1 ATS in Big Ten games.

Penn State crushed the Spartans 49-18 as a 15½-point home favorite last year, avenging a 35-31 loss in East Lansing in 2007 when the Nittany Lions squandered a 24-7 lead and fell as a 2½-point favorite. The host has won 10 of the last 12 in this rivalry (9-3 ATS), with the winner covering the pointspread by an average of 21 points per contest. Going back to 1999, the SU winner has cashed nine of the last 10 meetings.

Penn State has covered in three straight road games and seven of eight as a road favorite since last year, but the Lions are just 1-5 ATS in their last six November contests, 1-4 ATS in their last five after a non-cover and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight as a favorite of three points or less. The Spartans are in ATS slumps of 10-21 at home, 1-5 as an underdog, 1-5 as a home pup, 1-4-1 after a SU win and 2-5 in Big Ten home games, but they’re 15-2-1 ATS the last 18 years in home finales.

Although they’ve topped the total in four of their last five roadies, the Nittany Lions carry “under” trends of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 9-4 in November, 8-2 as a favorite and 7-2 when playing on grass. The under is also 9-3 in Michigan State’s last 12 at Spartan Stadium, but otherwise it is on “over” rolls of 39-17-2 as an underdog, 8-2 as a home underdog, 10-1 when catching three points or less and 6-2 in November. Finally, the over is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings between these schools, including 4-1-1 in the last six clashes in East Lansing.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

California (7-3, 4-5 ATS) at (14) Stanford (7-3 SU and ATS)

Fresh off two highly impressive victories over ranked Pac-10 opponents, the Cardinal now gear up for the 103rd edition of “The Big Game” as they host California at Stanford Stadium.

The Bears rebounded from an ugly 31-14 home loss to Oregon State by routing 18th-ranked Arizona 24-16 as a three-point home favorite, knocking the Wildcats out of the Top 25 and essentially ended their hopes for their first-ever Pac-10 title. Since suffering two embarrassing losses to Oregon and UCLA by the combined score of 72-6, Cal has won four of five (3-2 ATS). Jeff Tedford’s team scored a total of 20 points in its three losses, but has averaged 41 ppg in its seven victories (six of which have been by eight points or more).

Stanford has busted into the Top 25 for the first time since 2001 courtesy of three straight dominating SU and ATS victories. The streak began with a 33-14 home rout of Arizona State and was followed by a 51-42 home win over seventh-ranked Oregon as a seven-point underdog and last week’s 55-21 destruction of No. 11 USC as a 10½-point road pup. The Cardinal, who have already qualified for a bowl game for the first time since 2001, are 6-2 SU and ATS in Pac-10 play and trail Oregon by a half-game in the race for the division title and Rose Bowl berth. They’ve scored 24 or more points in nine of 10 games, including 33 or more seven times.

In handing USC its worst home loss since 1966 last week, the Cardinal broke open a 28-21 game with four fourth-quarter touchdowns and finished with a 469-334 edge in total offense, including 325-138 on the ground. RB Toby Gerhart has thrust himself into Heisman Trophy consideration after rushing for a school-record 223 yards and three TDs against Oregon and 178 yards and three TDs against the USC.

The Bears have taken six of the last seven meetings in this rivalry and they’re 6-2 ATS the last eight years. Last season, Cal cruised to a 37-16 win as an 8½-point home favorite, but the last time these teams squared off at Stanford Stadium, the Cardinal scored a 20-13 upset win as a 13½-point home underdog. This is the first time since 2001 that Stanford will be favored in this showdown, and the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Cal is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog, but despite covering against Arizona last week, the Bears remain in pointspread funks of 2-5 overall (all in Pac-10 play), 5-12 as a visitor, 1-4 as an underdog and 0-4 after a SU win. Stanford is 4-0 SU and ATS in Palo Alto this year (15.3-point average margin of victory) and it has covered in 11 consecutive home games. Additionally, the Cardinal are on ATS rolls of 6-2 overall, 9-3 in conference, 6-1 as a chalk, 12-3-1 as a home favorite, 5-1 in November and 8-3 versus teams with a winning record.

The Bears are riding “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 9-1 as an underdog and 12-4 in November, and the under is 8-3 in Stanford’s last 11 as a favorite and 10-2 in its last 12 as a home chalk. Finally, six of the last seven “Big Games” have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD and UNDER

(10) LSU (8-2, 4-6 ATS) at Ole Miss (7-3, 5-3 ATS)

Ole Miss tries once again for its first three-game winning streak of the season, while also attempting to knock off LSU for the second straight year, as these SEC West rivals clash at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford.

With four key starters sitting out, the Tigers barely got by Louisiana Tech last week, holding on for a 24-16 non-conference victory but coming up way short as a 22½-point home favorite. LSU had just 246 yards and 15 first downs and is now averaging just 310 ypg on the season. Since starting off 5-0 (2-3 ATS), the Tigers are 3-2 in their last five games (2-3 ATS), and while they’ve won three of four road games, they’re just 1-3 ATS on the highway.

The Rebels followed up an easy 24-point non-lined home win over Division I-AA Northern Arizona with last Saturday’s 42-17 rout of Tennessee as a six-point home chalk. RB/WR Dexter McCluster was the main reason why Ole Miss ended a 12-game series losing streak to the Vols, rushing for a school-record 282 yards and four TDs as the Rebels finished with advantages of 492-275 in total yards and 26-18 in first downs. Ole Miss is in the midst of its third two-game winning streak of the season but has yet to win three in a row.

Ole Miss went to LSU last year and ended a six-game series losing skid to the Tigers with a 31-13 blowout win as a three-point underdog, finishing with a 409-215 edge in total offense. The Rebels are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings (all as an underdog), covering in each of the last three. In fact, the pup is on a 10-2 ATS roll in this series.

LSU continues to struggle at the betting window. Since starting the 2007 season 3-0 ATS, the Tigers are on pointspread slides 8-22-1 overall, 4-8 on the road and of 6-17-1 in SEC play. Additionally, LSU is mired in ATS funks of 0-9 in November, 3-8 after a SU win and 2-6 as an underdog, though Les Miles’ troops are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 when catching between 3½ and 10 points.

The Rebels sport pointspread surges of 19-7 overall, 6-1 at home, 8-2 as a favorite, 6-0 as a home chalk, 7-1-1 in November, 7-3 after a SU win and 4-1 after a victory over more than 20 points.

The over is 9-3 in LSU’s last 12 November contests and 12-4 in its last 16 on the road, but the Tigers are also on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 26-12-1 as an underdog, 20-8-1 as a road pup, 7-2 against winning teams and 6-0 after a non-cover. Ole Miss is also on “under” stretches of 5-2 at home, 9-2 in SEC play, 13-6 as a home favorite and 5-2 in November. Finally, the total has alternated in the last four meetings between these teams, with last year’s game staying low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI and UNDER

Air Force (7-4, 6-4 ATS) at (19) BYU (8-2, 5-5 ATS)

Air Force tries to end the regular season with a fourth consecutive SU win and fifth straight spread-cover while at the same time snap a five-game losing streak to BYU when these Mountain West Conference rivals hook up at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah.

The Falcons rolled up 557 total yards and 30 first downs, while the defense permitted just 282 yards and 16 first downs, in last week’s 45-17 thrashing of UNLV as a 17-point home chalk, their fourth straight spread-cover. All seven of Air Force’s wins have been by double digits, while its three losses have been by a total of 19 points, including two overtime losses and two three-point defeats.

A week after a 52-0 victory at Wyoming, BYU went to Albuquerque, N.M., a week ago and posted a lethargic 24-19 win over winless New Mexico, never threatening to cover as a 27½-point road favorite. Four of the Cougars’ last five games were on the road, and while they won all four, sandwiched in between was an ugly 38-7 loss to then-No. 10 TCU as a 2½-point underdog. BYU has played only four times in Provo this year, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, with the defense surrendering an average of 33 points, 421 total yards and 153.8 rushing yards per game.

BYU is on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, with all five victories coming by 14 points or more. Last year, the Cougars went to Colorado Springs, Colo., and rolled the Academy 38-24 as a three-point favorite.

Air Force has been a spread-covering machine on the road the last two years, going 10-3 ATS in its last 13 on the highway. The Falcons, in addition to their current 4-0 ATS roll, are on pointspread upticks of 4-1 in conference play, 7-2 in November and 14-6 after a SU win, but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven as an underdog (1-4 ATS last five as a road pup). BYU is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 Mountain West games, but 11-6 ATS as a home favorite in Bronco Mendenhall’s coaching era.

The over is on streaks of 5-0 for Air Force in November, 12-3 for Air Force after a spread-cover, 7-2 for BYU as a favorite and 6-2 for BYU in conference play

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Kansas State (6-5, 5-4 ATS) at Nebraska (7-3 SU and ATS)

The Big 12 North title is up for grabs at Memorial Stadium, where the Huskers host Kansas State with the winner earning a berth in the conference title game, almost certainly against third-ranked Texas.

Nebraska has won three in a row (2-1 ATS) and took control of the Big 12 North last week when it knocked off Kansas 31-17 as a four-point road favorite while Kansas State was losing at home to Missouri 38-12. The Cornhuskers won their first three home games by margins of 46, 31 and 55 points – all against Sun Belt Conference cupcakes – then dropped their first two Big 12 home games to Texas Tech (31-10) and Iowa State (9-7). However, Bo Pelini’s squad reclaimed its home-field mojo with a 10-3 upset win over then-No. 20 Oklahoma in Lincoln two weeks ago.

The Wildcats have followed up a 4-1 run (3-1 ATS) by dropping two of their last three, both SU and ATS. In last week’s 26-point loss to Missouri as a 1½-point home underdog, Kansas State surrendered 433 total yards and lost the turnover battle 3-0. It was just the third time this season that the Wildcats gave up more than 23 points, as they’ve still held six of 10 opponents to 17 points or fewer. On the flip side, the offense has produced more than 20 points in just two of nine Division I-A games.

Nebraska is 4-2 in Big 12 play (3-3 ATS), a half-game ahead of Kansas State (4-3, 5-2 ATS). Since the third-place team in the North Division is 3-4, the winner of this game claims the division title.

The Huskers have won four in a row in this series (3-1 ATS), taking the last two in embarrassing fashion (73-31 in 2007; 56-28 in 2008). In those two wins, Nebraska gained a combined 1,312 yards. However, prior to this recent run by the Cornhuskers, the Wildcats had won three in a row and cashed in five straight in this rivalry, all under coach Bill Snyder, who returned to the sidelines this season after serving exclusively as the school’s athletics director for three seasons.

Kansas State has cashed in four of its last five as an underdog and seven of 10 as a road pup, but the ‘Cats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 November outings. Nebraska is 2-5 ATS in its last seven Big 12 home games, but from there, the Huskers are on pointspread surges of 8-3 overall, 5-2 at home, 4-1 in November and 7-2 versus opponents with a winning record.

The Wildcats carry nothing but “over” streaks (21-8 on the road, 18-8 in Big 12 action, 22-10 as an underdog, 15-5 as a road underdog, 25-10 in November, 27-9 after a SU win), while Nebraska sports “under” trends of 5-1 overall (all in conference), 6-1 at home and 4-1 as a favorite. Finally, the over is 10-1 in the last 11 clashes in this rivalry, with the last five in Lincoln clearing the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEBRASKA and OVER

Oklahoma (6-4, 3-5 ATS) at Texas Tech (6-4, 5-4 ATS)

Two Big 12 South rivals playing for nothing but pride battle it out at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas, where the Red Raiders try for their third straight home win over Oklahoma.

The Sooners bounced back from a 10-3 loss at Nebraska and destroyed Texas A&M 65-10 last week, easily covering as a 20-point home favorite. One week after throwing five interceptions at Nebraska, Oklahoma QB Landry Jones had a career day, throwing for 392 yards and five TDs while getting intercepted just once.

It has been feast-or-famine all year for the Sooners, who have averaged 12.3 ppg in their four losses (scoring 13 or less in three of them) and 47.3 ppg in their six victories (tallying at least 33 points in all six). Additionally, OU’s four losses were by a total of 12 points, while they’re six wins were all double-digit blowouts (37.3-point average margin of victory). Finally, the Sooners’ defense has yielded more than 16 points just twice this year.

Texas Tech gave No. 17 Oklahoma State a battle last Saturday night, eventually falling 24-17 as a 4½-point underdog. The Red Raiders, who had scored 30-plus points in five straight games and seven of their first nine, were held to a season-low in points. They’ve alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in their last four games and are 4-2 SU and ATS in Big 12 play (2-1 SU and ATS at home).

The home team has taken five straight in this rivalry, cashing in each of the last three. However, going back to the early 1990s, the Sooners are on 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS against Texas Tech (6-2 ATS last eight), with those 12 wins coming by an average of three touchdowns.

The Sooners are in pointspread slumps of 1-4-1 on the road and 0-3-1 after a victory, but they remain on positive ATS runs of 8-3-1 in Big 12 play, 7-2 as a road favorite, 6-1 in November and 7-1 on artificial turf. Texas Tech is 39-16 ATS in its last 55 games after a SU defeat and 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home underdog, including four straight spread-covers as home pup of 3½ to 10 points.

Aside from their 11-4 “over” run in conference and 5-1 “over” run in November, and the Sooners have been an “under” team of late, including 9-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 7-2 as a favorite and 7-2 against winning teams. The under is also 5-2 in the Red Raiders’ last seven league games, but five of their last six in Lubbock have gone over the total. Meanwhile, te last two series meetings have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA

(11) Oregon (8-2, 7-3 ATS) at Arizona (6-3, 4-4 ATS)

Back in the Pac-10 driver’s seat, Oregon will try to stay on track for the conference title an automatic Rose Bowl berth as they hit the road for the fourth time in the last six weeks, this time stopping at Arizona Stadium in Tucson for a league meeting with the Wildcats.

The Ducks’ seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) went up in smoke two weeks ago after a 51-42 loss at Stanford as a seven-point road favorite, but they bounced back with last Saturday’s 44-21 win over Arizona State as a 19-point home favorite. Oregon’s defense stole the show, limiting the Sun Devils to 211 total yards, and even though the offense was “held” to just 388 total yards, they still managed to top the 40-point mark for the fourth straight game and the sixth time in the last season. Since a season opening 19-8 loss at Boise State, the Ducks have averaged 40.3 ppg.

Arizona had its three-game SU and ATS winning streak snapped at Cal last week, taking a 16-15 early fourth-quarter lead before surrendering the final nine points in a 24-16 loss as a three-point road underdog. The Wildcats managed just 274 total yards – a season-low in conference play – while the defense yielded 357, the final 61 coming on a rushing touchdown by Cal that sealed the game with less than two minutes to play. Still, the Arizona defense has allowed just 14.7 ppg in the last three games after giving up 38, 36 and 32 points (35.3 ppg) in its first three league contests.

Oregon controls its own destiny in the Pac-10 race and will claim the league title with a victory today and a home win over archrival Oregon State in the season finale in two weeks. Arizona (4-2 in the Pac-10) is one of three teams right behind the Ducks with two league losses.

The SU winner has cashed in nine of Oregon’s 10 games this year, including the last eight in a row, while the SU winner is 7-0 in Arizona’s last seven.

The Ducks hold the longtime series edge, taking 13 of the last 18 from Arizona (12-6 ATS), but the Wildcats are 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, including 2-0 ATS in Tucson. Two years ago, Oregon went to Arizona as the third-ranked team in the nation, lost star QB Dennis Dixon to a first-quarter injury and fell 34-24 as a 10½-point road favorite. The last year, the teams combined for more than 1,000 yards of total offense, with the Ducks building a 45-17 lead then holding on for a 55-45 victory, covering as a six-point favorite. Oregon has been favored in each of the last nine meetings.

The Ducks have cashed in seven of eight games, but both non-covers this year came on the road (at Boise State, at Stanford). They’re also on ATS runs of 8-1 in conference, 5-1 as a road favorite and 9-1 following a SU win.

Arizona is 10-5 ATS as a home underdog since coach Mike Stoops took over the program in 2004, going 5-1 ATS in that role since 2006. The Wildcats are on additional pointspread surges of 11-2 at home, 4-0 as a home pup, 13-6 when playing on grass and 6-2 after a SU defeat, but they have dropped four of five ATS in November.

Oregon carries a plethora of “over” runs, including 4-0 overall (all in conference), 5-0 in November, 12-2-2 as a favorite, 5-0-1 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, 12-5 as a road chalk and 7-3 against teams with a winning record. However, the under is 7-1 in Arizona’s last eight home contests. Also, three of the last four Ducks-Wildcats battles in Tucson have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Big Time Rivalries
By Judd Hall

The Saturday before Thanksgiving in college football has been set aside for some of the biggest rivalries. Television ratings and other factors have helped split the slate of heated matchups until the Saturday after Turkey Day, but there are still some worth seeing this weekend. We’ll start our day in Ann Arbor for one of the best rivalries in all of sport (even if it has lost its luster). Then we’ll go to Palo Alto to see if the band will be out on the field before the game is over.

Ohio State at Michigan

The game between the Buckeyes and Wolverines has decided who would win the Big Ten championship and a trip to the Rose Bowl. This year, however, one team is just hoping to make itself bowl eligible with an upset this weekend.

Ohio State (9-2 straight up, 8-3 against the spread) clinched a share of its fifth straight conference championship and first trip to Pasadena since 1997 after beating the Hawkeyes 27-24 in overtime last Saturday as 11½-point home favorites.

The Buckeyes let Iowa rack up 233 yards through the air with a redshirt freshman quarterback making his first ever start. That’s quite uncharacteristic of a defense that is allowing only 174.6 passing yards per game this year to rank 16th in the nation.

The Bucks were actually up 24-10 in the fourth quarter after Brandon Saine ran for a 49-yard score. After that, Ohio State ran the ball 11 more times for a total of 28 yards and two first downs. Anytime you have problems running out the clock with your ground attack, you’re going to let a team make a comeback.

Michigan (5-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) comes into this game trying to just make it to a lower-tier bowl game and maybe, just maybe, save Rich Rodriguez’s job in the process. The Wolverines looked like they would be a nice surprise in the Big Ten after picking up a last second win over Indiana home to start conference play on Sept. 26. Unfortunately for fans, that was the last time the Maize and Blue defeated an FBS-level team. Unfortunately for bettors, Michigan hasn’t covered a spread since losing 30-28 versus the Hawkeyes as e 8½-point road pups on Oct. 10.

The betting shops aren’t expecting the Wolverines to be a factor on Saturday afternoon by making Ohio State a 12-point road “chalk” with a total of 47 ½. You can take Michigan for the big upset and a hefty plus-350 return (risk $100 to win $350).

It’s surprising to see Ohio State listed as such a big favorite in Ann Arbor. Yet betED’s sportsbook manager, Randy Scott, believes the line is where it should be. “I know that the Buckeyes playing down to the level of competition, but how we are approaching this one is when it comes to rivalries; teams will play to run up the score on each other. Scott continues, “Conservative play calling is put on the shelf, to win is expected, to blow it out is the mission. It's like that in all big time rivalries, teams just don't want to settle for a win, so you can expect Ohio State to run the score up at the slightest opportunity. That's what this line reflects; it's up to the bettors to decide whether that will happen or not. Tough call, but we also know Ohio State can make this spread look tiny if they can execute their game plan.”

There is some validity to that idea as the Buckeyes are 7-1 SU since Jim Tressel became head coach in 2001. Gamblers have enjoyed backing the Scarlet and Gray in this contest as well with them going 6-2 ATS. The ‘over’ has gone on a 5-1 run in the last six meetings.

From my findings, Michigan has never been a double-digit home underdog. As just home pups since 1998 though, the Wolverines are 4-4 SU and ATS. The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four games under this scenario.

California at Stanford

This game has been heated one for a long time. Hell, who hasn’t seen the video of the band out on the field for “The Play” back in 1982? This year’s edition of the rivalry was supposed to be a good one, but there is a little bit more on the line for one of the teams.

Stanford (7-3 SU, ATS) has been garnering a lot of national spotlight after its last two games this season. The Cardinal have racked up 106 points against Oregon and Southern Cal recently. A big part of that success has been their darkhorse Heisman Trophy candidate, Toby Gerhart. The senior running back has been a beast over the last two weeks, gaining 401 yards and six touchdowns on 67 carries. He currently ranks third amongst all rushers in the nation with 1,395 yards on the ground and second overall with 19 scores.

The Cardinal now stand at 6-2 in the Pac-10 race, just a half-game behind Oregon. Stanford needs the Ducks to fall to Arizona this weekend and beat the Beavers to close out the year. The reason being for that is Oregon State knocked off Jim Harbaugh’s team in Corvallis on Oct. 10 as a two-point home pup, 38-28. That win gives the Beavers the tiebreaker over the Cardinal to get the Pac-10’s automatic BCS bid to the Rose Bowl should they end up tied for first place.

California (7-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) will be doing its best to put a kibosh on its hated rival’s dreams of Pasadena without its best player, Jahvid Best. The talented running back is missing his second straight game after suffering a concussion early in the Golden Bears’ 31-14 home setback to Oregon State on Nov. 7.

The Golden Bears certainly didn’t miss Best last Saturday in their 24-16 win over Arizona as 2 ½-point home favorites. Shane Vereen ran the ball 30 times for 159 yards and a score in that game. However, he was just converted one of the four third-down plays that he was handed the ball on last week. It remains to be seen as to how Vereen will succeed a defense that ranks 73rd on third down (39.8 percent) and 57th against the run (138.5 YPG).

Most sportsbooks have posted the Cardinal as seven-point home faves with the total rolling in at 65. You can take Cal to win the game outright at plus-250 (risk $100 to win $250).

That line has been greatly affected by Best not being in the lineup. Randy Scott elaborates, “Best was a preseason Heisman Trophy contender, it's a huge loss for Cal. He's worth at least a Touchdown. If he was playing that line would be closer to a pick, with Stanford getting slight home field odds.”

California has controlled this series in recent history with a 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS mark since the 2002 meeting.

The Bears haven’t been successful as road ‘dogs in conference play since 2004, going 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS. The ‘under’ is 6-1 during that stretch. Stanford, on the other hand, is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS when listed as a home “chalk” versus Pac-10 opponents in the last five years. The ‘under’ has gone an impressive 5-1 as well.

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Public Enemies - Week 12
By Kevin Rogers

Three weeks remain in the college football season before we head to the bowls, as several rivalry games are highlighted on the card this weekend. We'll take a look at four contests, including "The Big Game."

Cal at Stanford (-7, 64)

The battle by the Bay takes place in Palo Alto this year, as the Bears and Cardinal each own identical 7-3 records. Cal made headlines earlier this season with a 3-0 start, while being ranked in the top seven. However, Jeff Tedford's team has won four of their last seven games, while suffering a pair of humiliating losses to Oregon and USC. The Bears have also been without early season Heisman candidate Jahvid Best, who suffered a concussion two weeks ago against Oregon State.

Stanford, meanwhile, has turned into one of the best stories this season in college football. Unlike Cal, Jim Harbaugh's squad has beaten Oregon and USC, including a 55-21 pounding of the Trojans last week at the Coliseum. The Cardinal offense has tallied at least 33 points in each of its last four games, while still having an outside shot to win the Pac-10.

VI capper Joe Nelson says that despite Stanford's massive rushing game, the Bears can keep up with the Cardinal on the ground, "Cal's rushing attack is missing a key piece in Best, but the Bears are still a serious threat in any match-up even though there have been some losses this year. Last week's win over Arizona was a redeeming effort to ward off the late season fade and this rivalry game has been won by the Bears six of the last seven years."

The Cardinal continues to cash tickets, but Nelson points out that the role has flipped for Harbaugh's team, "Stanford has incredibly covered in eleven consecutive home games, but many of those games came as underdogs and the Cardinal are now playing the unfamiliar role as a favorite against a quality opponent. Stanford's defense has still shown some vulnerability and there has to be a letdown following back-to-back huge wins over the top programs in the Pac-10. California may be an overlooked team at this point, but this is still a team capable of playing with anyone in this conference and this looks like a favorable underdog spot."

North Carolina at Boston College (-3½, 37½)

These two teams had different expectations to begin the season, as the Tar Heels were thought to compete for a berth in the ACC Championship, while the Eagles weren't supposed to be a threat in the conference. Both of those things didn't come to fruition.

UNC started conference play at 0-3, sealing its fate for a potential ACC Title Game berth. Granted, the Tar Heels have rebounded with three consecutive wins, including a victory over Miami for a third straight season. However, Butch Davis' team will be likely staring at a pre-New Year's Day bowl.

Boston College still has an opportunity to play in the ACC Championship, but the Eagles have to win their final two, while Clemson needs to lose this week to Virginia. Even if the Eagles do not claim the ACC Atlantic Division, BC has racked up an impressive 7-3 season, while covering six of nine lined contests. The Eagles have done the most damage at home, compiling a 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS mark (the lone non-lined victory came over Northeastern).

Nelson believes this matchup should be a quality one between two evenly matched squads, "BC has not posted great offensive numbers this season, but they have out-paced North Carolina, although the Heels have been better on the defensive end. UNC has now won and covered in three consecutive games but the last two wins came at home. Last week, UNC survived in a close game against Miami and that was obviously a huge game for the team for the players and the coaching staff given that Butch Davis used to lead the "U," while also clinching bowl eligibility for the Tar Heels."

The Eagles are in a nice revenge spot, and according to Nelson, could be a good situation to back BC. "Boston College lost badly in Chapel Hill last season, but this is a team that has an incredible track record at home in the past decade and this should be a problematic spot for North Carolina coming off a very big emotional win. Last week, the UNC defense allowed over 400 yards and benefited from four turnovers so the Tar Heels may be a bit overvalued this week," Nelson says.

Tulane at Central Florida (-21, 48)

The Knights pulled off a substantial upset last week, as UCF knocked off Houston, 37-32, the first time the Knights have ever beaten a ranked opponent. With the win, UCF still has an opportunity to play for the Conference USA Championship. Tulane, meanwhile, continues to languish near the bottom of the conference at 3-7, as the Green Wave has dropped five of six.

Tulane has not helped bettors, especially as double-digit underdogs, going 0-5 ATS when receiving at least ten points. The Knights have profited in the favorite role, covering three of four when laying points. However, the last time UCF was a favorite of at least 20 points came in 2007, as the Knights did not cover in a win over UTEP. The Knights were 'chalk' of at least 20 points three times that season, compiling an 0-3 ATS mark.

Nelson says that UCF should be able to exploit this Tulane defense, "The offensive statistics for these teams are actually fairly similar, but Tulane is allowing over 200 yards per game on the ground defensively which has been the main reason for the struggles. Tulane has covered just once in the last seven road games, but Central Florida has not been a great performer in the favorite role. Tulane was a 10-9 winner the last time these teams met and UCF was shutout last season in their final home game of the year.

The Green Wave has received a lift at quarterback recently, as Nelson feels that several early season tests for Tulane will benefit them here, "Tulane fill-in QB Ryan Griffin has six touchdowns and just one interception in the last two games and he has completed over 64 percent of his passes. UCF is allowing nearly 280 yards per game through the air, so this could be a problematic match-up for a Golden Knights team that is not accustomed to laying big points. Tulane easily could have won last week before a tough finish and this is a team that is playing better than most realize as ugly lopsided losses to LSU and BYU in non-conference play are hiding some decent numbers."

Kentucky at Georgia (-9, 51)

These two SEC East squads are dead-even at 6-4, as many thought Georgia would fall back this season following the losses of Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno to the NFL. Kentucky has been on fire, as the Wildcats have won four of their last five games. Rich Brooks' team owns only one quality victory in this span, upsetting Auburn.

Georgia's offense has been hit-or-miss all season, scoring over 30 points five times, but were held to 20 or less points on five other occasions. The Bulldogs are just 2-5 ATS as a favorite this season, while covering only three of ten times overall.

Nelson says the Bulldogs' pointspread struggles could continue this week, "Last season Georgia beat Kentucky 42-38, needing a late interception to fight off the upset, as the Wildcats have not won in Athens in over 30 years. Georgia has played the tougher schedule, but the offense has barely been more productive than the defense and the Bulldogs also own one of the worst turnover margins in the nation."

The Wildcats may not own many great victories this season, but Nelson feels UK has still impressed under the radar, "Kentucky is a solid rushing team which could make them a threat as an underdog and Georgia is just 1-7 ATS in the last eight games as home favorites, with last week's narrow win ending the losing cover streak. Kentucky is a difficult team to pass on and this could be a tricky game for a favored Georgia team that has shown plenty of vulnerability on both sides of the ball this year."

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Beware of Let Downs - Week 12
By Judd Hall

The Wildcats and Nittany Lions both were nursing hangovers from Week 10 that helped bettors fade them for a profit last Saturday. There are some programs that had some big wins and another that suffered a tough defeat last weekend. Those teams are going to give us a chance at seeing green for this week.

No luck at all…

I know that he isn’t talking about it, but Charlie Weis has to see the writing on the wall in regards to his job. Notre Dame was expected to contend for a BCS berth. Now the Irish are looking more like they’ll be lucky to make it into the Gator Bowl after losing in Pittsburgh as six-point pups last weekend, 27-22. And they were lucky as hell to cover that spread.

This Saturday the Irish will show if they have any fight left in their system when they host Connecticut as six-point home favorites.

Forgive me if I sound pessimistic about the Golden Domers’ chances to win, let alone cover, but we’ve seen a bad habit arise with this club.

The Fighting Irish found themselves down 21-7 to Navy before they started to comeback on Nov. 7. And last Saturday we saw them down 27-9 before they began to five the end zone.

Notre Dame is not a guarantee to win at home as they’re 4-2 straight up, but just 2-4 against the spread this season. Another thing to keep in mind is that the Irish are 5-3 SU when listed as home faves after suffering back-to-back SU losses. As far as our purposes are concerned, the Domers are just 2-6 ATS.

Spartan downfall…

Michigan State found itself down 34-23 early in the fourth quarter on the road against the Boilermakers. Turns out that the Spartans had Purdue right where they wanted them, scoring two touchdowns in just over 90 second for a 40-37 win as three-point road favorites. The win gave them enough wins to become bowl eligible for the second year in a row.

As good as the Spartans feel right now, the sportsbooks aren’t buying into them as they’ve been listed as 3½-point home underdogs to Penn State in their Big Ten finale.

I know that this isn’t the same Penn State squad we saw last year, but they are plenty talented to beat this club. The Nittany Lions have had great luck over MSU recently by going 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS since 2000. Plus, you have to take into consideration that the Spartans are 1-2 SU and ATS when listed as home pups after winning as home faves since 1997.

Fallen Cardinal…

Who out there thought Stanford would have dropped a double-nickel on the Trojans? If anyone says that they did is lying through their teeth right now. I certainly never expected the Cardinal to pull out a 55-21 bitch slapping of Southern California as 10 ½-point road underdogs. Toby Gerhart had his way against the Men of Troy, gaining 178 yards and three touchdowns on 29 carries. The Cardinal has been rolling offensively against the Pac-10’s best clubs as they’ve racked up 106 points against USC and Oregon.

The Cardinal will continue their tour for world domination this Saturday as eight-point home favorites over California.

The Golden Bears look like they’ll be without Jahvid Best for the rest of the season, but they did come away with a nice 24-16 win over Arizona as 2 ½-point home faves last week. One of the reasons was that they found a decent substitute in Shane Vereen. The sophomore runner picked up 159 rushing yards and a score on 30 carries. He should have more of the same luck this week against Stanford, who is giving up 138.5 rushing yards per game.

This series has been extremely one-sided in favor of the Bears as they’ve gone 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS since 2002. Also, the Cardinal have lost their last two games as home faves coming off of a win on the road as underdogs.

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Not Just Another College Football Wagering Saturday
By Doug Upstone

The third Saturday in November is always special on the gridiron. No matter the circumstances, Ohio State and Michigan automatically makes this day standout. However, this is not all that matters in college football, not a long shot. The ACC Atlantic could well be determined if Clemson wins, nevertheless, Boston College is right there to take their place should they falter. Oregon heads the desert at night, still searching for Rose Bowl bid and takes on assiduous Arizona squad. Nebraska wraps up Big 12 North with victory at home; while Texas looks to make it official they would play the Cornhuskers for the conference crown with a win over Kansas. While LSU and Mississippi have are playing only for pride, these are still two of the better teams in the country, which makes this intriguing SEC matchup. All numbers from Betonline.com.

Ohio State (-12, 47) at Michigan

From the standpoint of being truly meaningful, this won't be the most dynamic of Ohio State and Michigan matchups, nevertheless it still counts just because it is these two teams. The Buckeyes squeaked by Iowa at home last week 27-24 in overtime and will be playing in first Rose Bowl in 13 years. The last thing Ohio State (9-2, 8-3 ATS ) looked like a month ago was team going to Pasadena as Big Ten representative after losing at Purdue 26-18, as two touchdown road favorites. But as coach Jim Tressel said, "We have to go back to work and fix things" which is exactly what the Buckeyes did. What Ohio State has really done in putting this four-game winning streak together is keep it simple and basic. Play great defense, win the field position battle and make enough plays on offense to turn the tide of the game. The Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS a Big ten road favorites since 2005.

After a promising 4-0 start, Michigan (5-6, 4-6 ATS) is staggering to the finish line. Their only win after quick beginning is against FCS Delaware State. The defense is squarely to blame, having conceded 35 points per game in Big Ten action. As coached Rich Rodriguez correctly pointed out after recent 38-36 loss to Purdue, "You score 36 points you ought to be able to win it."

This is the one contest on the schedule that can heal some Michigan wounds and though Ohio State is still going to the Rose Bowl on January 1, the Wolverines would take away satisfaction in knowing they made Ohio State co-champions of the conference, instead of outright winners. The issue for Michigan is how to change, since they are 1-9 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two years losing by 14.1 points per contest.

Ohio State is on 7-1 and 6-2 ATS run against Michigan in the "Big Game" and has held the Wolverines to seven or less points in consecutive games for the first time in 54 years.

North Carolina (+3.5, 38.5) at Boston College

Boston College will be going to a bowl game somewhere this season, but before they do, their preference would be to play in third consecutive ACC championship contest. The Eagles could have incurred a tumultuous campaign, but head coach Frank Spaziani brought stability to the program this season and for the most part it has been business as usual for Boston College (7-3, 6-2-1 ATS). Quarterback Dave Shinskie is a freshman in name only, after spending six seasons in the Minnesota Twins farm system. He added life to a stale offense and wide receiver Rich Gunnell will leave the school at or near the top of numerous B.C. pass catching records. Boston College has regained their home field edge this season, with 6-0 and 5-0 ATS mark. In conference action the last 11 years, the Eagles are 27-12 ATS.

This year has not produced the numbers many thought possible in Butch Davis' third season, but don't blame the defense. The entire year, this group has been in the Top 15 in several defensive categories and realistically has only had one bad half which came against Florida State in 30-27 loss. What has been North Carolina's (7-3, 5-4 ATS) strength is ability to get off the field, with opposing teams converting on just over 30 percent on third down, among the best in the nation. The offense has been plagued by injuries and new receivers learning to blend with quarterback T.J. Yates. The Tar Heels are 12-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record the last three years.

This is North Carolina's first ever trip to Chestnut Hill and they are 13-8 ATS on the November road. Boston College is 9-2 ATS in home games over the last two seasons and 7-3 ATS in last home contest over the past 10 years.

LSU (+4.5, 42.5) at Mississippi

This was supposed to be a portentous conflict back in August, but Alabama killed that notion and other SEC losses took care of it living up to preseason hype. That doesn't mean it won't hold value, since these two squads came in with high hopes and want to finish the regular season proudly. The goal for LSU (8-2, 4-5-1 ATS) is simple, win 10 games, which would be the fourth such occurrence under coach Les Miles in the last five years. The Tigers have several players sucking it up and playing hurt. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson is playing with ankle issues and a number of linemen on either side of the ball are limping or playing thru the pain. Look for coach Miles to dial up the pressure on Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead, who has not reacted well in the face of adversity. The Tigers will most likely walk up a safety to take away Rebels run game, to force obvious passing situations. Check this number out, LSU is 1-12-3 ATS in the SEC off a non-conference tilt.

This is Mississippi's last home game of the season and they would like to put away previous disappointments. This would ideal situation for Snead to regain confidence and get ready for rivalry game with Mississippi State next week. Snead's lack of confidence has made him reluctant decision-maker, which has led to interceptions or trying to steer the ball to receivers, instead of playing instinctively. Running backs Dexter McCluster and Brandon Bolden have been good behind a spotty offensive line, especially at tackle. The Rebels (7-3, 6-3 ATS) are 10-5 ATS vs. ranked teams at home.

Ole Miss has been the spread winner 10 of last 12 games played against LSU.

Virginia (+21, 44.5) at Clemson

Since being upset by Maryland 24-21 as 12.5-point road favorites, the Clemson Tigers (7-3, 7-2 ATS) have rattled off five consecutive wins and are still in the hunt for a first ACC Atlantic Division crown. The Tigers revival has been about playing more complete football games. In the losses against the Terps and Georgia Tech, they appeared like many Clemson teams before them, unfocused and not ready to play. Though they played less than perfect games against conference partners Miami and Florida State, they kept the down time to a minimum and made the right plays when it counted most. Clemson also has skill position players that are a threat to score from anywhere. Running back C.J. Spiller and receiver Jacoby Ford are a threat to score anytime they touch the ball. Clemson has alternated spread wins and losses the last 10 games before rivalry game with South Carolina and they beat Virginia last year 13-3 as two-point favorites. Oh boy!

Virginia (3-7, 4-4-1 ATS) is relegated to third losing season in four years, which could spell the end of nine years of Al Groh as coach in Charlottesville. After averaging in the upper 20's in points scored for a number of years, the Cavaliers have been at 20 or below in their losing seasons. (19.8 in 2009) This year Groh tried to install spread offense run by offensive coordinator Gregg Brandon, but wasn't happy with results and went back to pro-style, which left the team without an offensive identity and explains ranking 118th in total offense. Virginia is 18-33 ATS in road games in the second half of the season.

Virginia is 8-36-1 all-time against Clemson; however the underdog is on 12-4 ATS run.

Kansas State (+16.5, 44.5)

The rehiring of Bill Snyder at Kansas State coach was met with tremendous skepticism, as many figured his run had ended after finishing below .500 in 2004 and 2005. The program did not improve under Ron Prince and Snyder was thought to be a good go-between until a younger and more energetic coach could be hired in Manhattan. An unexpected development occurred along the way. The Wildcats started playing more disciplined football than what was seen in recent years, which helped reduce mistakes. With the Big 12 North full of average teams, Kansas State (6-5, 6-4 ATS) can potentially win the division with the upset of Nebraska. The offensive line came together and running back Daniel Thomas has been putting the hurt on opposing tacklers, while the Cats play keep away with the pigskin. K-State comes into this meaningful confrontation 9-1 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points under coach Snyder since 1992.

The best description of Nebraska (7-3 SU&ATS) football in 2009 style is "they find a way". It ends up that phrase has a dual meaning. Against Iowa State and Virginia Tech, a -10 turnover margin sealed a pair of losses. However, despite seven first downs and 180 yards of offense against Oklahoma, the Cornhuskers picked off five Sooners passes in 10-3 upset in Lincoln. Take away the Texas Tech misstep; Nebraska defenders have earned back the name "Blackshirts", holding nine other opponents to 17 points or less. Inconsistent quarterback play has stalled the offense, placing dependence on junior RB Roy Helu to carry the load. The Huskers are 8-3 in home finales, but only 3-8 ATS.

If you haven't seen Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, make a point, he's a shredder. These teams have played every year since 1922 and K-State in 6-3 ATS the last nine. The favorite is 5-2 ATS since 2002.

Oregon (-6, 60) at Arizona

Over most of this decade, the amount of intrigue in the Pacific 10 this time of year has been who is going to win the conference in basketball, as USC has held a stranglehold on this league. But with the Trojans being knocked out and Oregon slipping at Stanford two weeks ago, an un-thought of matchup like this breathes life into the league.

Let's start with trivia question, what Pac-10 team has never won the conference and played in Rose Bowl? If you answered Arizona, you are a sage college football fan. Coach Mike Stoops has had the wolves at his doorstep the last couple of years, yet somehow his team pulls an upset late and plays well enough down the stretch. This season the Wildcats didn't wait as long to get started and are 6-3 and 4-5 ATS. The Arizona defense has been troubled by teams that can move the ball, but the insertion of Nick Folks at quarterback has kept the Cats in every game. The Tucson troops are just 3-12 ATS in last home game.

Oregon (8-2, 7-3 ATS) rebounded from Stanford debacle in dumping the other state of Arizona university last week 44-21. The Ducks still control their own destiny with two more wins to become Pac-10 champs for the first time since 2001 and they haven't been part of the Rose Bowl pageantry since the 1994 season. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and the offense should have too much speed for Arizona defense, but Wildcats stadium is every bit as intimidating as Autzen Stadium when the joint is packed, which should help their defense.

Despite the Ducks defense having a number of very good games, they are better at running and chasing and not facing power football. Oregon is 13-5 and 12-6 ATS against Zona, yet is 1-3 ATS in last four.

Kansas (+27.5, 57.5) at Texas

A combination of factors has led to a disappointing campaign for Kansas QB Todd Reesing. A less talented squad, especially on defense, coupled with having to play the stronger contingent from the Big 12 South, has led to 1-5 and 0-6 ATS mark in the conference. Like a lot of Big 12 signal callers coming off banner seasons, Reesing hasn't been able to put it together. A bothersome groin injury and the lack of running game has allowed defenses to play deep zones and take away quick strike offense that was prevalent two years ago in Orange Bowl season. On defense; not enough size, speed or quickness. Jayhawks defensive coaches have played conservative to force opponents to work the length of the field and blitzed like madmen to force negative plays. Nothing much has worked over a complete contest. Unlike the hoops squad, Kansas (5-5, 2-7 ATS) is 1-5 ATS vs. Top 10 teams.

Texas (10-0, 4-5-1 ATS) has three more games to win before presumed date with SEC champion for the national championship. The way the season has worked out, next week's rivalry battle at Texas A&M might be the most difficult. One aspect coach Mack Brown would like to repair in the last few games is his players' mental outlook. When the opposing team is a perceived threat, Texas players have been ready since the first kickoff; however in many other contests in which the Horns were Texas-sized favorites, the wakeup call often came in the second quarter or later, before dominating. Texas is 13-3 ATS in home finales and Colt McCoy could win the Heisman with three outstanding performances.

Kansas hasn't beaten Texas since 1938, though only seven games have been played with the Jayhawks 0-7 and 1-6 ATS.

What Bettors Need to Know: Ohio State at Michigan
By SCOTT COOLEY

The most storied rivalry in college football was expected to have monumental implications in the teams’ season finales. But “The Game” between the Buckeyes and the Wolverines has lost its glamour and become just another early-morning Big Ten bout.

With a win last week, Ohio State (9-2, 8-3 ATS) snared at least a portion of the conference title and is heading to Pasadena in January while this is the final opportunity for Michigan (5-6, 5-6 ATS) to become bowl eligible.

Line movement

The Buckeyes opened as 11.5-point favorites and most shops are currently dangling a spread of 12 with a few as high as 12.5. The total has not experienced much movement from its opener of 47.5.

Injury report

Michigan’s leading rusher Brandon Minor is doubtful for the game with a shoulder injury.

The Wolverines star wide receiver Martavious Odoms has missed the last three games with a knee injury, but practiced all week and is listed as probable for the game.

Weather or not

The forecast predicts mostly cloudy skies with a 20 percent chance of precipitation and a calm breeze out of the southwest at 5 mph. Kickoff temperature is expected to be 50 degrees.

Pryor conviction

Ohio State is sky-high after coming off two season-saving wins against Penn State and Iowa. The team has already earned at least a share of the Big Ten and even though a win could provide the Buckeyes with the outright title, this sets up as a potential trap game.

Since Terrelle Pryor was chastised by the nation following the loss at Purdue, where he accounted for four turnovers, the sophomore signal caller has been efficient. Not flashy, but efficient.

In the Buckeyes’ last four games, Pryor has completed 56 percent of his passes, which isn’t a staggering mark, but has only tossed one interception and has not coughed up any fumbles.

“Before…I always looked for the big play,” Pryor to reporters. “Now, I’m taking the check-downs and reading through the whole defense. It causes turnovers when you make your mind up before you come out of the huddle.”

Pryor is coming off his best percentage game of the season after completing 14-of-17 passes in the overtime win against Iowa.

The 112 total yards Pryor posted in that game indicates that head coach Jim Tressel has taken a little bit of weight off the shoulders of his young quarterback after struggling early in the season.

Tressel doesn’t get too fancy in his offensive attack, keeping his cards under his sweater-vest while relying on his ground game and formidable defense.

Lifestyle of the Rich and infamous

After only two seasons of stalking the sidelines at The Big House, head coach Rich Rodriguez is on the lukewarm seat, but a win Saturday could almost guarantee him another year.

Rodriguez bucked the Big Ten trend of a power-running game and brought his spread offense to Ann Arbor. Behind a true freshman quarterback in Tate Forcier, the Wolverines boast the conference’s top-ranked scoring offense (31.3 ppg).

Most of Michigan’s shortcomings can be attributed to the defensive side of the ball.

"Our failure to win more games, I don't think it's system-oriented," Rodriguez stated. "[The issues we have] are personnel and they are related to building a program.”

After starting the season with four straight wins, the Wolverines have lost six of their last seven and four in a row against the spread.

The defense has yielded at least 35 points during the last four losses and the team ranks No. 102 in the nation in turnover margin.

Great expectations

The Buckeyes have rumbled for at least 225 yards in their last four games and will try to get the ground game going early and often to keep Michigan’s explosive offense off the field.

Michigan relies on its potent ground attack (195.8 ypg), but might not find the running holes quite as cavernous against the country’s fourth-ranked rush defense.

Trendy persuasions

Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games versus Ohio State.

Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS during the last five games of this series.

Wolverines are 3-14 in their last 17 conference games.

Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.

Under is 4-0-1 in Ohio State’s last five road games.

Over is 5-1 in Michigan’s last six home games.

Game Of The Day: Kansas at Texas
By Nick Parsons

Football's Sweet 16

No matter how much fans, players and coaches want it, a playoff in college football is never going to happen. Texas' march to the national title is the closest we will get to it as they will have to stay perfect in their next three games (Kansas, Texas A&M, Big 12 title).

So fans can look at Saturday night's feature contest as college football's version of the Sweet 16.

The undefeated Longhorns have remained sharp with only Texas Tech and Oklahoma giving them a challenge. They have beat their other eight opponents by an average score of 46-11.

The defense is arguably the best in the nation giving up only 12.6 point per game and ranking first in yards allowed at 232.3 including giving up just 50.6 on the ground.

Saturday's contest also marks the last time that senior quarterback Colt McCoy will suit up in Austin. The four-year starter has had a stellar career leading his team to four straight 10-win seasons.

A tale of two seasons

The 2009 Kansas football campaign has literally been split into two seasons. The Jayhawks began 5-0 and then followed that up with five straight losses. Mind you, the first half of the season was mostly against non-conference cupcakes and the second was against the top teams in the Big 12.

The last two outings haven't been that bad though. They only lost by a touchdown to Kansas State and, in the last game, against Nebraska they held a 17-16 lead halfway through the fourth quarter.

Still losses are losses and it’s tough to tell how much of a challenge the Jayhawks will give to the Longhorns on the road. Talks of head coach Mark Mangino being on the hot seat and accusations by former players about his abusive attitude don't help either.

Quarterback Todd Reesing returns to his hometown of Austin which may provide some added motivation, but he is going through the worst stretch of his career. He has only thrown five touchdowns during the losing streak and, at 18 TDs for the season, he is well off the pace to hit 30 TDs - a feat he accomplished as a sophomore and a junior.

The line

The line opened at 26.5 in favor of the Longhorns and has only moved slightly to 27.5. Bookmakers have been happy with Texas this season, as most of the money tends to gravitate towards the Longhorns but they've only covered four times in 10 attempts.

Although, Texas has covered three times in four games since the Oklahoma game. Its only ATS loss was to Central Florida and by just 4.5 points.

Kansas' losing streak has affected its backers as well, having failed to cover the spread in its last seven games.

This is the largest amount of points that the Jayhawks have been given this year. In fact, they have not been underdogs by 20-plus points since their 2004 meeting with Texas. The Jayhawks were 23-point dogs and they covered, losing a close 27-23 contest.

Last year's contest had the visiting Longhorns as 14-point favorites and they covered winning 35-7. The last meeting in Austin took place in 2005 where Texas won 66-14 as a 32-point favorite.

The total for the game opened up at 55 and with early action on the over, it has moved up to 57 at most sportsbooks. Last year's total was set at 64 and it went under by 22 points.

An important thing to keep in mind with Texas totals (and spreads) this season is the Horns’ efforts towards the end of the game. In their last game against Baylor, the defense played perfect holding a 47-0 lead with five minutes left. But Baylor ended up scoring two touchdowns making the game go over.

The same situation occurred against Oklahoma State and UL Monroe, where the Longhorns gave points in the fourth to push the final score over the total. The opposite occurred in the Missouri game, where the defense shutout Missouri in the fourth to maintain the under

Mack Brown does not need to blow out teams to guarantee a spot in the national title game. So while a Kansas straight up win (+2000) seems unlikely, both the total and spread may come down to the final quarter.

Both teams are a combined 9-10 on the over/under this season.

Weather

A low of 46 is expected during the game. Wind will be light running North (endzone to endzone) at 6 mph. McCoy and Reesing should have no problem throwing long bombs, but the Longhorns docile mascot Bevo may be irritated by the 20 percent chance of precipitation.

Ohio St. at Michigan
By AllStar.com

This is the last weekend of the Big Ten football season and with that comes the Michigan-Ohio State Rivalry which has always been considered one of the greatest sports rivalry’s in North America today. It pits husband against wife, brother against brother and father against son. The week of the Ohio State versus Michigan game is far and away the biggest sports event in the states of Michigan and Ohio for the entire year. This week, the game will be a shell of its former self. It's so diminished that its only impact the “The Game” will have is, to determine if the Wolverines become bowl eligible or if Michigan will reside in last place in the Big Ten. The Rose Bowl has been decided; Ohio State will be going to Pasadena. The national championship and the Heisman Trophy will be presented to non Big Ten participants. But to the alumni and to the states populations this is a ‘blood feud” that will never end. With a win this year against Ohio State, ‘hot seat’ Wolverine Head Coach Rich Rodriguez will save his job, a blow out loss could put the embattled Coach scrambling for the Classified Ads. Michigan leads the all time series 57-42-6, but the Buckeyes have won 5 straight and 7 of the last 10.

No. 8 Ohio State (9-2, 6-1) has already assured itself of a spot in the Rose Bowl after clinching at least a share of the Big Ten title and the conference's Bowl Championship Series automatic berth with Saturday's 27-24 overtime victory over 15th-ranked Iowa.

The Wolverines (5-6, 1-6) have lost four in a row and six of the last seven, and remain tied for last in the Big Ten after Saturday's 45-24 beating at the hands of Wisconsin.

Ohio State Offense: The Buckeyes' offense did score in 2009, ranking fourth in the league with 30.0 points per game; but it has struggled putting up yardage. OSU ranks last in passing (174.9) per game. Terelle Pryor has completed just 56.0 percent of his passes for an average of 160.1 yards and has thrown 15 TDs and 9 interceptions. DeVier Posey accounts for most of the pass receptions and has an average of nearly 63 yards per game. The Buckeyes have had success running the ball this season, rating third in the league with 194.2 yards per game. Terrelle Pryor boasts an average of 57.5 yards rushing per game. Brandon Saine ranks just behind Pryor in Big Ten rushing in seventh with 55.5 yards per contest. OSU ranks eighth in the conference in total offensive yardage with (369.1) ypg.

Ohio State Defense: The Buckeyes defense ranks second in the league by allowing just 12.4 points a game and has a plus-12 turnover margin. In fact, the Buckeyes have forced 28 opponent turnovers through the first 11 games, an average of 2.5 per contest, and have forced 19 interceptions and recovered nine opponent fumbles on the year. Ross Homan, the team's leading tackler at 7.6 stops per game, has four of those picks, followed by Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell with three apiece. In last week's title-clinching win over Iowa, Russell intercepted two passes, including one in overtime. In addition, Ohio State's defense has allowed just 10 touchdowns over its past 39 quarters of play.

Michigan AD Bill Martin pledges his support for Coach Rich Rodriquez, after a second consecutive losing season, combined with the ongoing NCAA investigation into the football program is keeping Rich Rodriguez's seat very warm. A Michigan win over archrival Ohio State would cool things down and allow Michigan to end the program's first five-game slide against Ohio State. All but assure Michigan of its first bowl appearance since the 2008 Capital One Bowl. Ensure Michigan didn't finish last in the Big Ten. Give Michigan its first win against an FBS opponent since Sept. 26 (Indiana) Allow anyone involved with the Michigan football program a moment to celebrate which there has not been a lot of in Ann Arbor in quite some time.

Michigan Offense: Michigan leads the Big Ten in scoring with 31.2 points per contest and ranks second in rushing (195.8), but just ninth in passing (195.5). Freshman quarterback Tate Forcier has completed 142-of-243 attempts (58.4 percent) with six interceptions and 12 touchdowns, and averages 165.8 yards per game. Forcier is fourth in the conference in passing efficiency with a 132.85 rating. Michigan receiving has been done by committee 19 different wideouts have caught passes for the Wolverines in 2009. Brandon Minor is the team's leading rusher with 502 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 50.2 yards per game, which is eighth in the conference. Michigan's high-powered scoring offense will be facing one of the conference's top defenses in Ohio State.

Michigan Defense: Defensively the Wolverines give up 28.1 points and 400.2 yards of total offense every Saturday. The OSU run game is expected to see a lot of action in Ann Arbor as Michigan ranks 10th in the conference against the rush, allowing 164.7 yards per contest. U-M has also given up 19 touchdowns on the ground, which is the third-highest total in the league. Should Pryor be contained to the pocket, it will be by senior Brandon Graham, who ranks fourth nationally with 1.9 TFL's per game. His 21.0 tackles for loss pace the Big Ten, while his 8.5 sacks are the second most in the league this year.

The Wolverines have six losses on their record, including three defeats of 21 points or more. The Wolverines will finish no better than 2-6 in Big Ten play for the second straight year with a win on Saturday.

The Buckeyes have beaten two top-15 teams in as many weeks, knocking off 15th-ranked Iowa 27-24 in overtime and then-No. 11 Penn State 24-7 in Happy Valley two weeks ago. Those two wins gave them the Rose Bowl bid and a Jan. 1 date against the Pac-10 winner. No. 11 Oregon (8-2, 6-1) currently leads that race, with Stanford (7-3, 6-2), Oregon State (7-3, 5-2) and Arizona (6-3, 4-2) hot on the webbed feet of the Ducks.

The Michigan Wolverines are ranked 56th in offense, averaging 391.4 yards per game. The Wolverines are averaging 195.8 yards rushing and 195.5 yards passing so far this season. The Ohio State Buckeyes are ranked 65th in offense, averaging 369.1 yards per game. The Buckeyes are averaging 194.8 yards rushing and 174.3 yards passing so far this season.

Home and Away:

The Michigan Wolverines are 5-2 at home this season, 1-6 against conference opponents and 4-0 against non-conference opponents. At home the Wolverines are averaging 37.0 scoring, and holding teams to 24.3 points scored on defense. The Ohio State Buckeyes are 2-1 while on the road this season, 6-1 against conference opponents and 3-1 against non-conference opponents. On the road, the Buckeyes are averaging 25.0 scoring, and holding teams to 15.7 points scored on defense.

Betting Trends:

Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games against Michigan
Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games in Ann Arbor
Ohio State is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games
Michigan is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 Big Ten games
Michigan is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games
The OVER is 7-3 in Michigan’s last 10 games
The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 games between the two teams

Tips and Trends

LSU at Mississippi

LSU: LSU is out of the BCS National Championship picture. Their 2 losses have come against Alabama and Florida. LSU is the underdog today, which in itself should scare LSU and their fans. Both times LSU lost this year, they were the underdog. LSU has struggled in the passing game this year, as they've only thrown for more than 200 YDS in 1 of their last 5 games. QB Jordon Jefferson needs to have a good day in the passing game for LSU to walk away with a win today. LSU has one of the best defenses in the country, especially in the 1st Quarter. The Tigers haven't given up a TD in the 1st quarter over their past 6 games.

LSU is 3-9 ATS last 12 games following a SU win.
Over is 12-4 last 16 road games.

Key injuries - QB Jordon Jefferson (ankle) is probable.
C T-Bob Hebert (knee) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Mississippi (-4.5, O/U 42.5): The Rebels have played well at home this year, with their lone loss coming against Alabama. That loss to Alabama was also the only game at home they didn't win ATS. The Rebels are playing their best football right now, thanks in part to RB Dexter McCluster. McCluster has rushed for nearly 200 YPG over his last 3 SEC games. He has helped pick up the slack of QB Jevan Snead, a preseason Heisman candidate. Snead has 14 INTs this year, and has struggled for much of the season. The Rebels are playing well on defense, as they've held 4 of their past 5 opponents to 17 PTS or fewer.

Mississippi is 7-1 ATS last 8 games as a home favorite.
Under is 9-2 last 11 conference games.

Key Injuries - LB Patrick Trahan (foot) is questionable.
DE Greg Hardy (wrist) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)

Oregon at Arizona

Oregon (-6, O/U 60): Oregon will be playing its final road game of the season today. Both of the Ducks losses this year have come on the road. Oregon has won 7 of their last 8 games ATS. The Ducks have the 6th best rushing offense in the country, averaging 237 YPG. Oregon has scored at least 42 PTS in every league game that QB Jeremiah Masoli plays in. The Ducks are 22nd nationally in total defense at just over 310 YPG. If Oregon wins their last 2 games, they are Pac-10 champions.

Oregon is 9-1 ATS last 10 games following a SU win.
Over is 6-0-1 last 7 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

Key Injuries - RB LaMichael Blount (flu) is probable.
RB LeGarrette Blount (suspension) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Arizona: Arizona has a chance to be league champions if they can win their final 3 games. Easier said than done however as they face both Oregon and USC. This is Senior Night for Arizona, where they've won all 5 home games this year SU. They've won 3 straight games ATS at home, all league games. QB Nick Foles has played well, completing nearly 70% of his passes. He has 13 TDs to only 6 INTs. The Wildcats 20th ranked rush defense will be tested severely by the Ducks. The Wildcats give up just over 100 YPG on the ground, so they will need to continue that success in order to win today and keep their Rose Bowl dreams alive.

Arizona is 4-0 ATS last 4 games as a home underdog.
Under is 7-1 last 8 home games.

Key Injuries - RB Nicholas Grigsby (shoulder) is probable.
RB Keola Antolin (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 23