NCAAF News and Notes Saturday 11/27

Saturday's Best Games

Ohio State won last six games vs Michigan; average score is 26-9 in last three meetings; Wolverines lost their last four visits here, by 35-3-16-5 points. Ohio State won last four games (3-0-1 vs spread); they're 7-0 as home favorite, with 36-24 win over Miami closest game. Michigan lost four of last six games; their losses this season are by 17-10-10-20 pts. Six of last eight Michigan games went over the total.

Florida won last six games vs Florida State, last three by average score of 42-12 (Gators had 907 rushing yards in those three); favorites are 11-1 vs spread in last 12 series games. Seminoles allowed 19 points or less in all eight wins, 47-28-37 in their losses. Florida won three of its last four after 3-game skid in October. Under is 4-1 in Seminoles' last five games. ACC home favorites are 8-2 vs spread in non-conference games.

Clemson won 10 of last 13 games vs South Carolina, but teams split last four meetings; Gamecocks lost five of last six visits here. Underdogs are 3-1 vs spread in last four series games. Carolina is playing in first-ever SEC title game next week; will they be looking ahead? Clemson is 4-1 at home vs I-A foes; they held last six opponents to 16 or less points, are 2-2 vs spread as a dog. SEC road favorites are 5-3 in non-league games.

Georgia won eight of last nine games vs Georgia Tech, with five of last six decided by 7 or less points; Tech lost three of last four visits between hedges, with last three all decided by 6 or less. Dawgs allowed 31-34-49 points in last three games vs I-A opponents; they're 4-3 as favorite this season. Tech lost three of last four games; three of their five losses are by 14+ points. Five of last six Georgia games went over the total.

Michigan State lost last eight visits to Happy Valley; last time they won there was year before JoePa was head coach ('65). Spartans lost last two years to Penn State, 42-14/49-18, but they're 10-1 this year, 3-4 as fave. Only MSU loss was 31-6 at Iowa; Spartans were -3 in turnovers. Lions won four of last five games, are 4-1 at home, losing to Illinois. Last six Penn State games went over; four of last five MSU games stayed under.

Oklahoma won last seven games vs Oklahoma State (4-0-1 vs spread in last five); they won last three trips to Stillwater by 20-6-3 points. OSU won/covered its last four games, scoring 36.5 ppg; they're 3-1-1 as home favorite- they scored 41 points in their only loss (51-41 Nebraska). All five Oklahoma road games went over the total. Sooners are underdog for first time this year- they allowed 33-36 points in their only losses.

Underdogs are 10-3 vs spread in last 13 BYU-Utah games; Cougars lost three of last four trips to Utah, losing by 24-31-7 points. 11 of last 13 in series were decided by 7 or less points. BYU has come alive in second half of season, winning last four games (covering last three) scoring 42.3 ppg. All five of their losses are by 14+ points. Utah pulled out a 38-34 win in rainy San Diego last week, ending 2-game skid. Its been 5 weeks since Utah won a game by more than five points.

Underdogs covered four of last five LSU-Arkansas games (all decided by 5 or less points). LSU is +8 in turnovers in last three games; their only loss this year was 24-17 at unbeaten Auburn. Arkansas won/covered last five games, scoring 44.8 ppg; they're 3-1 as home fave this year. Last six Arkansas games went over total. SEC home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-2 vs spread this season. LSU won LY's game 33-30 in OT.

USC QB Barkley has sprained ankle; Arkansas transfer Mustain plays if he doesn't. Trojans won last eight games vs Notre Dame (6-2 vs spread), with Irish losing last four visits here by average score of 42-12. Favorites covered ND's last six trips here. Irish won last two games to get eligible got bowl, allowing 3-3 points to Utah/Army- this is their first true road game since October 2. USC is 3-4 in last seven games; they gave up 32+ points in all four of their losses.

Now That Is Offensive
By Cajun Sports

Last week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week qualified the Stanford Cardinal over the California Golden Bears. The Cardinal came through with ease as they defeated the Bears 48 to 14 and improved our system’s record to a perfect 18-0 ATS.

Offense is the theme for this week’s NCAA Football System of the Week. We look at teams that are coming off an impressive defensive performance in their last outing after having three strong offensive performances prior to last week’s contest.

SYSTEM: From Game 5 on, play ON a favorite of 9+ points with less than 13 days rest off a SU win scoring less than 21 points in its last game (not an ATS loss of 17+ points) and scoring 35+ points in each of its 3 games before that. This system has a record of 11-0 SU winning by an average of 39.3 points per game and 11-0 ATS covering by an average of 18.0 points per game since 1991.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off a huge win at Iowa last week defeating the Hawkeyes 20 to 17. OSU held Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi to 20 of 31 passing for only 195 yards. The Buckeye defense also kept the Hawkeyes ground attack in check giving up a mere 81 rushing yards for the game. Now that is offensive

Our database research has found that heavy favorites who are coming off a defensive win that followed three games in which their offense carried the day have once again found that offensive groove and crushed their current opponents and the spread in their next game. Now that is offensive.

This week our system of the week qualifies the Ohio State Buckeyes in their game versus the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday. Ohio State has won six straight in this series including last season’s 21 to 10 victory in Ann Arbor. Not only does our system support the host at the Shoe but also history tells us that Michigan is 1-12-1 against the spread when playing with conference revenge. Now that is offensive.

With all the system’s parameters met, this week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week qualifies the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over the Michigan Wolverines. We recommend laying the chalk with the Buckeyes on Saturday. Now that is offensive.

Battle for the Big Ten
By Judd Hall

It’s been a long time since the Big Ten has had a three-way race for the conference championship. And it’s been even longer that they’ve had said race go down to the final Saturday. The Buckeyes, Badgers and Spartans are all vying for the league’s automatic BCS berth and a potential at-large bid to big bowls.

Ohio State might be the one with the hardest road to going 11-1 on the regular season by hosting the hated Wolverines on Saturday at 12:00 p.m. EST on ABC. The Buckeyes were opened up as 17 ½-point home favorites for this contest, but has been moved down to 17 at the time of publishing.

The Bucks come into this game as a statistical powerhouse, ranking 18th in total offense (446.2 YPG), 3rd in total defense (241.5 YPG), 9th in scoring offense (39.6 PPG) and 5th in scoring defense (13.9 PPG). As great as those numbers are for Jim Tressel’s club, they don’t indicate how bad this team has been in the first half.

Over the last two week, Ohio State has been outscored 21-6 in the first half by the Nittany Lions and Hawkeyes. Yet the Buckeyes not only won both games, but they covered the spread in both games. If there was ever a team that deserved to be a first half fade, it’s the Scarlet and Gray.

The biggest asset for the Buckeyes right now has been its defense, which has allowed just 13 points over their last four contests. Wide receiver Dane Sanzenbacher and Running Back Dan Herron have been highly effective by accounting 1,711 total yards and 23 touchdowns. Which is good as Terrelle Pryor is still trying to figure out how to be a quarterback. He’s got 23 touchdown throws and four more on the ground, but is still making passes behind receivers or at their feet and getting picked off at the worst possible times. Yet Pryor still finds ways to win games for Bucks.

Even though Pryor has been with has passing better recently, he’ll get a lot of leeway this Saturday against Michigan and its matador defense at the Horseshoe.

The Wolverines are going bowling for the first time with Rich Rodriguez running the show, but it's in spite of their stoppers. Michigan’s defense is 112th in the country with 445.2 yards per game being allowed this season. The secondary has been the worst part the defense, surrendering 263.9 YPG to rank 111th. This is a unit that has allowed 142 points in its last three games.

Michigan’s offense has been sputtering as of late with being shut out in the opening half against the Badgers and put up just 14 points in the first 30 minutes against the Boilermakers. Denard Robinson has been the hype machine for the Wolverines this season with his 2,229 yards through the air, 1,538 rushing yards and 30 total touchdowns. Those numbers tend to help the faithful forget about his bad throws, fumbles and injury issues this season.

Ohio State has had ownership of this rivalry ever since Jim Tressel came to Columbus in 2001. The Bucks have gone 8-1 straight up and 7-2 against the spread in that time. The most recent cover for the Wolverines was the 42-39 loss at Ohio Stadium as 6 ½-point pups in the No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown in 2006. And that was a backdoor cover.

Michigan hasn’t been a wise road pup to back as of late, going 2-6 SU and ATS over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are damn near automatic as home faves against Big Ten foes since 2005, evidenced by a 21-1 SU and 16-6 ATS record.

While the Buckeyes will be playing for their sixth straight Big Ten crown, Michigan State will be aiming for at least a share of its first title since 1990. They’ll be taking on the Nittany Lions at 12:00 p.m. EST on ESPN2.

The Spartans seeming have a horseshoe tucked into the uniforms of all of their players with the way they’ve won some of their games over the course of the season. They won on a fake field goal against the Fighting Irish, got the Wildcats to choke for them just like the Boilermakers did last week. But they do hold the only win anyone has on the Badgers. Back in the day, that would have been an important tiebreaker in the Big Ten. Now that win is only good is to pad the standings. We’ll get to that stuff a little later though.

Michigan State’s offense has been sluggish, but is still ran by QB Kirk Cousins. The junior signal caller appeared to get back on track last week against Purdue by connecting on 28-of-37 pass attempts for 276 yards and three scores with one pick that was ran back for a touchdown. That’s a big change from Cousins’ two start prior with just one touchdown and four interceptions.

The biggest liability right now for Sparty is that their defense can’t reach opposing quarterbacks. They’ve got just one sack in their last three games and they’ve played the likes of Purdue and Minnesota, which are thanking the good lord that they won’t finish in dead last in the conference (Thanks, Bill Lynch and Indiana).

Penn State won’t let the Spartans get too many chances at hitting Matt McGloin as they’re giving up just .91 sacks per game. All McGloin has done recently is throw eight touchdowns to just two picks in his last three starts for JoePa. But they had issues stuffing the Hoosiers’ wide receivers, giving up 242 yards through the air. That could hurt this week once again with Michigan State’s solid duo of Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham.

The betting shops have posted the Spartans as slight two-point road favorites with a total of 51. That’s a high number considering that Penn State walked away with a 42-14 and 49-14 triumphs the last two seasons against Sparty. Also lending credence to the Nittany Lions is the fact that they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five times they’ve hosted MSU.

The Nittany Lions are also one of the better home pups to back in Big Ten battles, posting a solid 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight in this role.

While the Buckeyes and Spartans are fighting to keep a piece of the conference title, Wisconsin is the only one that control its own destiny. All the Badgers have to do is take down Northwestern as 23 ½-point home favorites with a total of 47. ESPN will have the action in this one at 3:30 p.m. EST.

Wisconsin looks like the most unstoppable team in the Big Ten right now. The Badgers ripped apart Indiana 83-20 two weeks ago and Michigan 48-28 just last Saturday. They’ve also dominated Ohio State earlier in the season. And I’m willing to bet they could beat down the Spartans if they were to get a rematch.

The Badgers’ bread and butter on offense is to pound the ball down the opposition’s throat. Everyone knows about John Clay and his skills (929 rushing yards, 13 TDs), but he’s been out with a knee injury for the last few games. That hasn’t mattered for Bret Bielema since he can use either Montee Ball or James White in the backfield. Ball has been a man possessed as of late with nine touchdowns and 467 rushing yards. In fact, Wisky is the only team in the nation that can boast three running backs that have at least 600 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns each.

That kind of output has helped Scott Tolzien become a much more accurate passer. Just in the last two games, he has completed 29-of-33 of his passes for 382 and three scores. Now Tolzien is the seventh-most efficient quarterback in the land with a rating of 163.04.

Those numbers can’t look good to backers of Northwestern, who have lost four of its last six games. The rushing numbers in particular are going to be an issue. The Wildcats gave up a mind-boggling 519 rushing yards last week against Illinois at Wrigley Field.

The Wildcats will also be hurting on offense this week with Dan Persa getting knocked out for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon in the final moments of their win against Iowa. That means we get to see Evan Watkins thrown to the wolves…or Badgers, as it were.

While it looks like this will be a lopsided affair, the recent series between these two teams is evenly matched. Wisconsin owns a 6-4 SU mark over the last 10 meetings. Northwestern was the team to back at the window as they’ve gone 7-3 ATS in that stretch.

How it all breaks down…

When all is said and done on Saturday, one of these three teams will be making it to the Rose Bowl with the league’s automatic bid. Here are how the Big Ten will figure out who gets that trip to Pasadena.

1 – If the Buckeyes, Spartans and Badgers finish with identical records after Saturday’s games, the berth will go to the team that finishes with the highest BCS ranking. That tiebreaker goes to the Badgers, who are ranked seventh.

2 – Michigan State would win the Rose Bowl invite if they finish tied with Wisky in the standings should Ohio State lose to the Wolverines. That’s due to the 34-24 win the Spartans had over the Badgers on Oct. 1.

3 – Wisconsin will get the automatic spot due to its head-to-head win over the Buckeyes should Michigan State lose to the Nittany Lions.

4 – Should the Badgers lose to Northwestern, either Michigan State or Ohio State will get the trip to Pasadena based on better BCS ranking.

5 – Ohio State would get the bid outright if both Wisky and Michigan State lose on Saturday.

vegasinsider.com

NCAAF Rivalry Games
By Brian Edwards

**Florida at Florida State**

Most books are listing Florida State (8-3 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) as a two-point favorite with a total of 51. Bettors can take UF on the money line for a plus-110 return (risk $100 to win $110).

This is the first time the Seminoles have been favored in this rivalry game since 2004. That’s the same year that the Gators sent Ron Zook out as a winner and won in Tallahassee for the first time since 1986. On the night FSU named its field after Bobby Bowden, Zook’s team won a 20-13 decision as a seven-point underdog.

Florida (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) bounced back from a 36-14 loss to South Carolina two weeks ago by blasting Appalachian St. by a 48-10 count as a 24-point home favorite. Jordan Reed had three rushing touchdowns and also threw a TD pass to QB John Brantley on a trick play. Chris Rainey had 87 rushing yards and one score on just six carries.

FSU kept its ACC Atlantic title hopes alive last week by winning 30-16 at Maryland as a four-point favorite. With the Terrapins in the red zone and threatening to tie in the final minute, Nick Moody intercepted a pass and returned it 96 yards for a touchdown.

If Maryland beats N.C. St. on Saturday in College Park, the ‘Noles will win the Atlantic Division and face Va. Tech next week in the ACC Championship Game.

FSU has failed to cover the number in four straight games until taking the cash at Maryland last week. For the season, the ‘Noles are 5-1 SU but only 2-3 ATS.

Florida has only played three true road games this year, going 2-1 both SU and ATS. During Urban Meyer’s six-year tenure, the Gators are 2-1 ATS in three games as road underdogs. The lone non-cover came in a 31-6 loss at Alabama earlier this season.

Florida WR Andre Debose, who is also a dynamic returner on special teams, is “questionable” with an ankle injury.
-Florida has won six in a row over FSU, outscoring the ‘Noles by a combined score of 127-37 in the last three meetings.

“This is certainly a big revenge game for Florida St., but that’s hardly enough to inspire me to back the Seminoles,” VegasInsider.com handicapper Andy Iskoe said. “Both teams have plenty of flaws, but I prefer Florida’s defense. If the line moves to three, I’ll consider taking the Gators. If not, I’m probably going to pass on the game.”

Kick-off is slated for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**South Carolina at Clemson**

Most sports books are listing South Carolina (8-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 45. Bettors can take the Tigers to win outright for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).

Clemson (6-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) has won three consecutive home games since losing 30-21 to Miami back on Oct. 2. For the season, the Tigers are 5-1 SU but just 2-3 ATS at home.

Steve Spurrier’s team falls into a look-ahead situation in this spot since it is making the school’s first appearance in the SEC title game next week against Auburn. Will that factor deter gamblers from backing the Gamecocks, or will the fact that this is a rivalry game override the look-ahead factor?

Going into last week’s game against Troy, South Carolina’s highest scoring output during Spurrier’s six-year tenure was 52 against Middle Tennessee back in 2006. But the Gamecocks scored 56 on the Trojans in the first half alone en route to a 69-24 win as 21 ½-point home favorites.

South Carolina freshman RB Marcus Lattimore has been the catalyst all year long. He is second in the SEC in rushing with 1,066 yards and 17 touchdowns. Lattimore averages 5.1 yards per carry and also has 18 catches for 287 yards and two more TDs.

South Carolina is 5-3 ATS in eight games as a road favorite on Spurrier’s watch.

When these teams met in Columbia last season, South Carolina captured a 34-17 win as a 3 ½-point home favorite. The 51 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 44-point total. In fact, the ‘over’ has hit in three of the last four head-to-head meetings between these in-state rivals.

The ‘under’ has cashed in seven straight games for Clemson. The Tigers have seen the ‘under’ go 8-1 overall. As for the Gamecocks, they have watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 overall, 2-2 in their road assignments.

ESPN2 will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Auburn rallied from a 24-0 deficit to beat Alabama 28-27 on Friday as a four-point road underdog. The Tigers hooked up money-line backers with a plus-155 payout (paid $155 on $100 wagers. I have to give credit to AU head coach Gene Chizik, who opted not to go for a two-point conversion when his team scored a touchdown when it was down 24. (I thought that was a mistake at the time, but it obviously turned out to be the right move. Had they gone for two and not made it, who knows how the game would’ve turned out?)

Trailing 24-7 at halftime, Auburn was a pick 'em for second-half wagers. That made Auburn +17 for the adjusted line.

Georgia will play host to Ga. Tech as a 13 ½-point favorite Saturday with a total of 58. The Dawgs beat the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta last year, but Paul Johnson’s team rallied from a 16-point halftime deficit to win in Athens two seasons ago.

Arkansas will take on LSU in Little Rock as a 3½-point ‘chalk.’ The total is 54½ at most spots.

I still say Rich Rodriguez gets fired by Michigan after it loses by double digits for the fifth time this season Saturday at Ohio St.

vegasinsider.com

LSU at Arkansas: What Bettors Need to Know

Louisiana State never makes it look easy, but it almost always manages to pull out a win.

The No. 6 Tigers will be looking to wrap up a BCS at-large bid when they visit upset-minded Arkansas in the battle for the Golden Boot trophy in Little Rock on Saturday.

Hats off

LSU (10-1, 6-1 SEC, 5-6-0 ATS) has been living on the edge all season, pulling out close wins in the final minutes on a consistent basis behind coach Les Miles’ trick plays and a whole bunch of luck. That strategy hasn’t been the easiest thing for fans to deal with, but it certainly has worked as the Tigers sit fifth in the BCS standings and have a great chance to grab an at-large bid to a BCS bowl game.

Its hopes of an SEC championship were dashed when Auburn beat Georgia, however, leaving LSU sitting in second place in the SEC West Division behind Auburn - the only team to beat LSU this season.

Auburn has one more game to play this weekend but has assured itself of a spot in the conference championship game by virtue of the tiebreaker over LSU.

No matter, the Tigers will be happy to take the money and exposure that comes from an at-large BCS bowl, though the Razorbacks will be yet another strong test in a season full of tight games.

Miles did not need to break out the trick playbook on Saturday but still had to watch as his team needed a touchdown on its final drive to secure a 43-36 victory over Mississippi.

Stevan Ridley rushed for a 7-yard touchdown with 44 seconds remaining and the Tigers made a two-point conversion to provide the decisive score. The Rebels had time for a few plays at the end, but Patrick Peterson intercepted Ole Miss quarterback Jeremiah Masoli as time ran out to seal it.

Quarterback Jordan Jefferson, who has drawn the ire of LSU fans from time to time for his erratic play, was at his best last week, passing for a career-high 254 yards and a score while adding three rushing touchdowns.

Hog wild

The No. 12 Razorbacks (9-2, 5-2, 8-3-0 ATS) will not make it easy on the Tigers and could very easily pull out the victory with an offense capable of poking holes in even the stingiest of defenses. Arkansas earned a 38-31 victory at Mississippi State in double overtime on Saturday and is averaging 44.8 points during its current five-game winning streak, gaining over 500 yards per game.

After relying mostly on the arm of Ryan Mallett during the first part of the season, the Razorbacks have rediscovered the running game lately, averaging 179.1 yards on the ground in the last seven games with Knile Davis getting the bulk of the carries.

Arkansas is currently 12th in the BCS standings and has its own hopes of an at-large BCS bowl berth, though it will need a win Saturday and probably some more help along the way.

The Razorbacks are no strangers to strong competition, with six teams on the schedule currently ranked in the Top 25. They have won two of the last three meetings against LSU. The last five games between the schools have been decided by five points or less.

Trends

- Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
- Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Weather

The forecast in War Memorial Stadium is calling for partially cloudy skies and game-time temperatures in the high 50s. There is a slight breeze blowing Northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Michigan at Ohio State: What Bettors Need to Know

Anyone who derives joy from watching football teams make big plays should be interested in the latest renewal of the rivalry between Ohio State and Michigan. Both teams are loaded with big-play potential, meaning Saturday’s game at The Horseshoe could be more compelling than usual.

Michigan (7-4, 3-4 Big Ten, 3-8-0 ATS) is bowl eligible for the first time in the three-year tenure of coach Rich Rodriguez. No. 8 Ohio State (10-1, 6-1, 8-2-1 ATS) is one victory away from nabbing a piece of the conference championship for the sixth consecutive season.

Ohio State leads the series 57-43-6, including last year’s 21-10 victory. The Buckeyes have won the last five meetings, and eight of the last nine. Michigan hasn’t won in Columbus, the site of Saturday’s game, since 2000.

Odds

Oddsmakers posted this spread at 18 point in favor of OSU. However, action on the underdog has dropped the line to 16.5 as of Friday afternoon. As for the total, the number was posted at 63 and has moved half a point to its current standing.

Dual dual-threats

Both teams are led by big-play quarterbacks. Ohio State’s Terrelle Pryor needs 67 yards to become Ohio State’s career rushing leader among quarterbacks. Pryor, one of 16 semifinalists for the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award, has thrown for 2,331 yards this year, the second consecutive season he has surpassed 2,000 yards. Pryor leads an offense that averages 39.6 points. The Buckeyes are 15-1 when Pryor scores a rushing touchdown, and 26-1 when he throws for a score.

Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson set a single-season NCAA record for rushing yards by a quarterback. He gained 121 yards against Wisconsin last week, and has rushed for 1,538 yards. He’s also scored 14 rushing touchdowns, and thrown for 2,229 yards and 16 scores. Robinson’s second half of the season has been less dramatic, as the constant pounding and innovative defensive schemes have slowed him somewhat. But the Wolverines are averaging 36.8 points under Robinson’s direction.

Supporting cast

In addition to the quarterbacks, each team has other dangerous weapons in its arsenal.

Ohio State has a stellar ground game in Daniel “Boom” Herron, who leads the team with 893 yards and 14 touchdowns. He’s scored in 10 consecutive games and needs 68 yards to reach 2,000 for his career. Dane Sanzenbacher has 49 catches for 818 yards and nine touchdowns, and DeVier Posey has 45 catches for 696 yards and five touchdowns.

Michigan answers with receiver Roy Roundtree, who has four games with 100 or more receiving yards. Roundtree has 58 catches and six touchdowns and Darryl Stonum, expected back from an ankle injury, has 35 receptions and four touchdowns. Stonum is also a threat as a kick returner.

Orange you glad?

With Wisconsin most likely headed to the Rose Bowl (the Badgers handed Ohio State its only loss), the Buckeyes are likely bound for the Orange Bowl for a game with the ACC Champion. Michigan appears slated for a game against Missouri in the Insight Bowl on Dec. 28 at Tempe, Ariz.

Trends

- Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Ohio State.
- Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Weather

The forecast is calling for partially cloudy skies and game-time temperatures in the high 30s in Columbus Saturday. There will be high-to-medium winds blowing West across the field at speeds of up to 20 mph.

Betting Preview LSU vs Arkansas
By: Jeff Mattingly

LSU can secure its sixth 11-win season in school history with a victory on Saturday and also improve its chances on gaining a BCS bowl berth. “I can tell you that since I’ve been here, the Arkansas-LSU game has been tremendously contested,” said head coach Les Miles. “Every game has always come down to the back end. Every game has had big plays and I can’t imagine it will be any different.” The last five games in the series have been decided by a total of 13 points. LSU is 4-1 versus AP Top 25 teams this year and 22-11 versus ranked opponents under Miles’ direction the past six years. The team is 3-9 ATS in November.

The Tigers continue to lead the SEC in total defense and passe defense while currently standing No. 2 in the league in scoring defense in allowing 16.5 points per game. LSU’s stop unit did allow an uncustomary 420 yards to the Ole Miss Rebels last week, but only 184 of that came in the passing game. That’s a significant stat considering they are facing the league’s top passing attack in Arkansas this week. It will be important to score first in this contest, with the team being 9-0 this year and 45-6 under Miles when scoring first.

Arkansas wraps up its 2010 regular season by facing the Tigers in the Battle of the Golden Boot at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock. The Razorbacks are coming off a 38-31 double-overtime victory at Mississippi State. Last year, the team came up just short in a 33-30 overtime loss, but junior quarterback Ryan Mallett feels the team is better prepared to earn a victory this time around. “We’ve grown up a lot since last year,” he said. “Last year we were a young team, but now we’re maturing - we’re just growing up.” Arkansas is on a five-game wining streak and has won seven of its last eight games in November. The squad is 15-8 ATS against conference foes the last three years.

The Razorbacks have won their last seven games in Little Rock, which is tied for the seventh-longest streak in program history. Head coach Bobby Petrino is also one of the best in the country in getting his team prepared for games in November, as his .769 career winning percentage during the month ranks second-highest among current SEC coaches. Offensively, the team has scored on 40 of 43 chances in the red zone, which paces the conference and ranks third in the NCAA.

Bettors may elect to back the Tigers due to their 14-6-1 ATS mark as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, while the Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS as a favorite.

Big 10 Preview
By Tom Stryker

It all comes down to this Saturday. Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State enter their final regular-season contest tied atop the Big Ten chase with 10-1 marks. With only a long-shot possibility that any one will play in the BCS national title game, a bid to the Rose Bowl at Pasadena is the most likely prize.

If the three-way tie remains – all at 11-1 – Wisconsin will be the Rose Bowl entrant based on it having the highest BCS rating. But the Badgers must have Ohio State win or Michigan State lose. If the Buckeyes lose and Michigan State wins, MSU gets the nod based on its victory over Wisconsin earlier in the year. If Wisconsin loses and Ohio State and Michigan State both win, the highest-rated BCS team will go to the Rose Bowl.

In another Big Ten storyline Saturday, four 7-win teams will try to improve their bowl stock. In all, eight Big Ten teams are bowl eligible – only Minnesota, Purdue and Indiana failed to win the qualifying six games.

Here’s a look at this week’s regular-season finales.

Northwestern at WISCONSIN

One of the best years in Coach Dan Fitzgerald’s run in Evanston took a huge blow two weeks ago when quarterback Dan Persa tore an Achilles tendon and was lost for the season. The Wildcats then suffered a 48-27 loss to Illlinois at Wrigley Field. Mike Trumpy averaged 9.9 yards a carry against the Illini, and Northwestern will need a similar effort from him on Saturday. Redshirt freshman Evan Watkins was 10-20 for only 135 yards a week ago. Northwestern is 7-4, 3-4.

Wisconsin (10-1, 6-1) continues to dominate teams on the line of scrimmage, while quarterback Scott Tolzien leads the country in completion percentage at 73.9 percent. The running back trio of James White, John Clay and Montee Ball have accounted for 2,510 yards and 39 touchdowns. The Badgers are averaging 40.9 points a contest, the most in school history.

The home team has won each of the last five meetings between these two schools.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Since 1988, host in the Wisconsin versus Northwestern battle stands 13-5 SU and 14-4 ATS.

KEY ANGLES: Wisconsin is 39-26 ATS at home in Big 10 action when matched up against an opponent that checks in off a straight up loss.

Northwestern is a miserable 25-45 ATS priced as a double-digit dog and lined up against an opponent that scoots in with momentum off a SU and ATS win.

Michigan at OHIO STATE

Ranked No. 8, Coach Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes used a fourth-quarter touchdown to dump Iowa a week ago and move to 10-1, 6-1.

The Buckeyes have dominated this season-ending classic recently, winning the last five and eight of the last nine. And the storyline is simple. The Buckeyes need their defense, third in the nation in total defense, to slow Denard Robinson and the Wolverines (7-4, 3-4).

Terrelle Pryor continues to climb the all-time leader marks for Ohio State. He needs 67 rushing yards to become the OSU career quarterback rushing leader.

Michigan must recover from last week’s 48-28 spanking by Wisconsin. But Robinson is just the kind of player that can give Ohio State fits. He is second in the NCAA in total offense with 342.5 yards a game, and 3rd in the nation in rushing at 139.8 yards each contest.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Michigan is 15-14-1 SU and 12-17-1 ATS in its last 30 against Ohio State including a soft 6-8-1 SU and 5-10 ATS at “The Shoe”.

KEY ANGLES: Ohio State is a blistering 55-11 SU and 42-23-1 ATS as a Big 10 host.

Michigan is a profitable 23-12 ATS in its last 35 lined as a road underdog but just 12-10 ATS in its last 22 in this role matched up against a conference opponent.

Michigan State at PENN STATE

Mark Dantonio’s Spartans, 10-1, 6-1, maybe have the most daunting challenge of the tri-leaders in the Big Ten.

Down by 15 points a week ago at home against Purdue, the Spartans rallied to keep their title hopes alive. Quarterback Kirk Cousins overcame an interception for a Purdue touchdown to throw for 276 yards and three touchdowns. He ran for a fourth TD. Sophomore Edwin Baker will be a force for Penn State to try to stop. Baker has 1,069 yards and 12 touchdowns.

An interesting storyline for Saturday came when Joe Paterno (401 victories at Penn State) announced he wanted to return next season. Penn State, 7-4, 4-3, knows a victory will enhance its bowl attractiveness. Matt McGloin passed for 315 yards in an easy victory over Indiana last Saturday, while Evan Royster, the career rushing leader for the Nittany Lions, now has 831 yards and 5 TDS this season.

Penn State has won the last two meetings between these two teams. It is the first post-Thanksgiving game in Happy Valley since 1998.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Penn State rests 13-4 SU and 9-8 ATS in its last 17 meetings against Michigan State including a spotless 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS at home in this role.

KEY ANGLES: Penn State is a reliable 25-5 SU and 19-11 ATS in its last 30 last home game settings including a sensational 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS in this role checking in off a straight up win.

Michigan State is a surprising 41-27-1 ATS on the conference road arriving with momentum off a straight up win.

Iowa at MINNESOTA

Once thought to be title contenders, the Hawkeyes of Kirk Ferentz have slipped to 7-4, 4-3 after a home loss to Ohio State last Saturday. Sixth in the nation in total defense at 160.7 yards per contest, Iowa will need to be wary of the upset bug. Minnesota won only its second game two weeks with a lopsided upset of Illinois.

Quarterback Ricky Stanzi has now thrown for 2,677 yards and 23 touchdowns. He has thrown only four interceptions through the first 11 games. His passing efficiency rating of 163.17 leads the Big Ten.

Minnesota, with interim coach Jeff Horton at the helm, will have to rely on the throwing arm of Adam Weber to have any chance against the Hawkeyes. Minnesota is 2-9, 1-6 entering its finale.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Iowa is 20-10 SU and 16-13-1 ATS in this series against Minnesota including a much more rewarding 13-4 SU and 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

KEY ANGLES: Minnesota is a stiff 6-18-2 ATS as a Big 10 host coming off a strong offensive performance in which the Golden Gophers scored 35 points or more.

Iowa is a money-making 16-9 ATS on the road coming off two or more straight up losses including an incredible 5-0 SU and ATS priced as a favorite in this role.

Indiana at PURDUE

There is not much at stake other than pride and bragging rights when these two Hoosier schools square off in West Lafayette. Neither is eligible for a bowl game. Purdue stand 4-7, 2-5, while Indiana is 4-7, 0-7.

Danny Hope’s Boilers are only averaging 18.6 points a game, and have rode the shirttails of their defense to help post those four victories. Redshirt freshman Rob Henry and Sean Robinson, the No. 4 quarterback at the start of fall drills, will have to keep the Indiana offense off the field.

There are those who think Bill Lynch’s job is on the line Saturday. A winless Big Ten campaign and a defense that has allowed 124 points in the last two games have made the boo-birds much louder. Ben Chappell continues to be a bright spot for I.U. He has thrown for 2,965 yards and 21 touchdowns this season.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Purdue is 19-11 SU and 14-15-1 ATS in its last 30 Oaken Bucket battles against Indiana.

KEY ANGLES: Purdue is 14-16 SU and 12-16-2 in its last 30 last home game sets including a soft 7-12-1 ATS in this rle matched up against a foe that enters off a straight up loss.

Indiana is a weak 15-33-1 ATS in its last 49 priced as a Big 10 road dog.

Tips and Trends

LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks

TIGERS: LSU keeps winning, regardless of how improbable they appear to be. Credit Coach Miles, because he keeps finding ways to win. LSU is still very much in the hunt for the BCS National Championship game, as they are 10-1 SU in the brutal SEC. The Tigers have only played 3 road games this year, as they are 2-1 both SU and ATS. LSU is 2-1 both SU and ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Tigers are dismal passing the football, so their ground work is critical to their offensive success. LSU is averaging 186.4 YPG on the ground, 30th in the nation. RB Stevan Ridley has rushed for 967 YDS and 12 TD's this season, both team highs. LSU allowed a season high 36 PTS last week, something that simply can't happen this evening if they expect to win. For the entire season, the Tigers are only allowing 16.5 PPG, 8th best in the nation. The Tigers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. LSU is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games played on turf. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. The Tigers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Tigers are 3-11 ATS last 14 games played in November.
Under is 11-2 last 13 games following an ATS loss.

Key Injuries - CB Ramon Broadway (knee) is out.

Projected Score: 20

RAZORBACKS: (-3.5, O/U 54) Arkansas is playing their best football of the season, as they've won their past 5 games coming into this afternoon. The Razorbacks are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS overall this season. Arkansas is 4-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in home games this year. Today will be the first time this season the Razorbacks are a single digit home favorite. Arkansas is averaging nearly 38 PPG this season, 13th best in the nation. Star QB Ryan Mallet has thrown for nearly 3,275 YDS and 27 TD's overall this year. RB Knile Davis has come on strong this year, as he's rushed for more than 1,000 YDS and 12 TD's this year. Very quitely, the Razorbacks have been playing sound defense. For Arkansas to win both SU and ATS this evening, they will have to shut down this LSU offense. The Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games overall. Arkansas is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. The Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Arkansas is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Razorbacks are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games played in November. Arkansas is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played on turf.

Razorbacks are 12-2 ATS last 14 games following a SU win.
Over is 13-3 last 16 games played in November.

Key Injuries - T Alex Hurst (leg) is questionable.

Projected Score: 31 (SIDE of the Day)

Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma St. Cowboys

SOONERS: Oklahoma has been impressive in their past 2 games, winning by huge numbers against stiff competition. The Sooners are 9-2 SU and 6-5 ATS overall this season. Oklahoma is ranked 14th in the nation, a few weeks removed from a top 3 ranking. Both of the Sooners SU losses have come on the road this year, and they are just 1-3 ATS as well. QB Landry Jones leads the 4th ranked passing offense in the country, as the Sooners are averaging 324 YPG. Jones has thrown for nearly 3,500 YDS and 30 TD's in his own right. WR Ryan Broyles might be the best receiver in the nation, as he has 106 receptions for 1,300 YDS and 12 TD's this year. Oklahoma is going to have to play their best game of the season defensively tonight if they are to earn yet another road win. Oklahoma has allowed 20.4 PPG this season, 29th in the nation. The Sooners are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games. The Sooners are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played in November. Oklahoma is 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win. The Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Sooners are 1-5 ATS last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Under is 17-8 last 25 games overall.

Key Injuries - DT Adrian Taylor (achilles) is out.

Projected Score: 34

COWBOYS: (-2.5, O/U 67) Oklahoma St. is playing one of their biggest games in school history tonight. The Cowboys are 10-1 SU this season, and can clinch a birth in the Big 12 Championship game with a SU win tonight. The Cowboys have been so dominant this season, that they are 9-2 ATS this season, with the vast majority of their games coming as the listed favorite. QB Brandon Weeden has been amazing this year, as he's thrown for nearly 3,800 YDS and 30 TD's this season. Weeden directs the 3rd most prolific scoring offense in the country at 45.3 PPG. RB Kendall Hunter has been scintillating in his own right, rushing for nearly 1,475 YDS and 16 TD's this year. The Cowboys have lost their past 7 meetings against the Sooners, so revenge is likely in order. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Oklahoma St. is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. Oklahoma St. is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on fieldturf. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played in November.

Cowboys are 7-1 ATS last 8 games following a SU win.
Over is 8-2 last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Key Injuries - S Victor Johnson (knee) is out.

Projected Score: 41 (OVER-Total of the Day)