NCAAF News and Notes Saturday 11/6

CFB Betting Preview: TCU Horned Frogs at Utah Utes
By: Jeff Mattingly

TCU heads out on the road for a second consecutive week in a game that will likely determine the Mountain West Conference champion. The Horned Frogs are coming off an impressive 48-6 victory over the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels in Las Vegas, out-gaining them by a 530-197 margin. “I didn’t think we played that well on both sides of the ball, but we did what we needed to do,” said head coach Gary Patterson. The team has managed to outscored its last five conference opponents by an astounding 189-16 margin and surrendered just two touchdowns in five October games overall. Over the last six seasons, TCU is 29-1 in day games and 55-4 in Saturday contests. The team is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 conference games.

The Horned Frogs last regular-season loss took place at this week’s venue and the program has actually never won in Salt Lake City. “They know us,” Patterson stated. “We’ve been playing them for years. There’s no hiding in this game coming up.” TCU’s offense remains balanced after gaining 273 rushing yards and 257 passing yards last week, while the offensive line has allowed quarterback Andy Dalton to be sacked just five times all season. The defense keeps improving upon its national-best total defense, allowing an average of 217.3 yards per game, nearly 17 yards better than Ohio State. In surrendering just 8.7 points per game, TCU is on pace for the NCAA’s lowest scoring defensive mark since 1988.

Utah managed to get out of Colorado with a 28-23 win over Air Force by withstanding a 13-point fourth-quarter rally by the Falcons. “It was a little frustrating because we has a chance to put the opponent away,” head coach Kyle Whittingham stated. “But the bottom line is, we are 8-0.” The Utes will be trying to preserve the nation’s third-longest active home winning streak, which is currently 21 games, dating back to a September 15, 2007 victory over UCLA. The streak currently ranks behind only Oklahoma (35) and Boise State (29). Utah is 6-1 ATS this season and 24-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

The Utes spread the ball around offensively and have had 16 players score touchdowns this season, which is tied for the most in the country. Utah’s 45.2 scoring average is not far off from the school record of 45.33 points per game, set in 2004. Few teams are more effective in the red zone, converting on 90 percent of their trips inside the 20 (35-for-39). Sophomore quarterback Jordan Wynn is 6-0 as a starter this year and 9-2 in his career. He ranks 11th in the nation and leads the MWC in passing efficiency. Much of the signal caller’s success can be attributed to an offensive line that has allowed just three sacks on the season.

Bettors will be interested in backing the Horned Frogs due to their 23-9-1 ATS mark in the last 33 conference games, while the Utes are 5-0 ATS as a home underdog.

The Big 12 Report
By Tony George

The Big 12 now has 5 ranked teams in the Top 25, and the Nebraska Cornhuskers crawled back into the driver’s seat last week with a beat down of the Mizzou Tigers in Lincoln, where Roy Hulu Jr. ran wild and set a single game rushing records for the Huskers, and that is saying something considering the past running backs at Nebraska. As Nebraska punches their exit ticket for the Big 10 next year, they are clearly lining up an old Big 8 battle at season’s end with long time hated rival Oklahoma who clearly is the best team in the South. Both teams have some potential landmines along the way, but it looks to be a December 12th meeting in Dallas for those two unless the wheels come off.

Other contenders still are Mizzou up north and not to mention Iowa State, a real shocker this season with a huge game on deck this week at home with Nebraska. Baylor is getting the best coaching in the Big 12 from Art Bryles and have now knocked off Texas in Austin as Iowa State did the week before and have no doubt, Baylor and QB Griffen are the real deal and ranked and currently leading the South standings! A lot of big games that determine some paths for some teams this weekend, lets break them down and offer some opinions.

Nebraska -19 @ Iowa State – Potential landmine for Huskers, but remember last year Iowa State BEAT Nebraska in Lincoln after the Huskers turned it over 8 times in a single game. That is a good thing considering Nebraska is off a huge national TV game against Missouri and this could be a letdown spot for a game like this, so having some payback should give the Huskers focus. All world QB Taylor Martinez has an ankle sprain and bone bruise in his leg, and is 50/50 for this game, but Zac Lee is a 5th year senior and started all last year and has seen plenty of time already, so they are in good shape there. ISU off a so-so win against Kansas last week after upsetting Texas. This should be a better than advertised game, as ISU can move the ball, but play little defense and NU’s offense may give them trouble. A lot of points on the road after a big win, Lean to the host to cover.

Baylor @ Okie State -7 – Baylor sits atop the South rankings but are playing a team whose only loss is to #6 ranked Nebraska, a game they were in till mid fourth quarter. Baylor off a huge win and now travel back to back here, while OSU off a pretty tough game and 10 point win at Kansas State. This should be a shootout in Stillwater without question as these two teams 1 and 2 in scoring offense’s in the Big 12. The Total is 73 in this game, the highest for either team all season, I lean to the UNDER. This will be a hard fought game with equal teams, slight edge to OSU at home, UNDER is my lean.

Colorado -8 @ Kansas – If you look at the list of injuries for Colorado it is flat out scary that they are laying 8 to anyone at home or on the road. Given the fact half their OL is out, and QB Hansen is gone for the season, the Buffs face a tough test the rest of the way out, but this is a winnable game on the road. Look for Kansas to possibly get a QB from the stands as they are on their fourth QB so far due to injury and none are ready to play, what a mess for Turner Gill. Look for Colorado to sneak out a win here by 10, lean to visitor.

Other games this weekend include my Big 12 Game of the MONTH between Texas AM and Oklahoma, so look for that. Missouri travels back to back weeks laying 4 at Texas Tech who just got waxed on the road at Texas AM and their last home they were beaten by 17 against Okie State and have lost 4 out of their last 6. SOLID Lean to Mizzou in this one. Texas travels to Kansas State laying 4 points and both teams are reeling. At day’s end the Longhorns have better talent and should win a close one, but Texas not bankable as they have lost 9 out of their last 11 games ATS, small lean to Texas here but a stay away game for me.

Sunsets Home Favorites
By Cajun Sports

Last week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the week qualified the UCLA Bruins (+9.5) over the Arizona Wildcats. Our system came thru as UCLA lost the game straight up but covered the spread with a final score of 29 to 21.

Home Favorites off a pair of road victories are the theme for this week’s College Football System of the Week. Home teams in this situation are perceived as having the momentum along with home field advantage, which would seem insurmountable but database research proves otherwise.

SYSTEM: In Games 3-11, play AGAINST a home favorite of 4½-16 points off 2 road SU wins&ATS wins of 11+ points in each game. This system has posted a record of 21-0 ATS since 1998 covering the spread by an average of 10.8 points per game.

This system was last active on November 4 2009 when Georgia Tech (-14) hosted Wake Forest and just got the win 30 to 27 not coming close to covering as two touchdown favorites. In 2008 there were two active dates with the first coming on October 4 2008 when Alabama (-15.5) hosted Kentucky and squeaked out a victory 17 to 14 but failed to cover the spread. The second time was on October 25 2008 when Pittsburgh played host to Rutgers and was favored by 9.5 points losing outright 54 to 34.

The qualifying team this week is Syracuse as they host Louisville on Saturday. Syracuse enters off two huge upset road victories the last two weeks. Two weeks ago, they traveled to West Virginia and defeated the Mountaineers 19 to 14 as 13.5-point road underdogs. Last week they were in Cincinnati for a meeting against the host Bearcats and won easily 31 to 7 as 5.5-point road underdogs.

Based on their two previous victories the Orange are due for an against the spread letdown on Saturday versus the Cardinals. We also note that the underdog in this series is a perfect 7-0 against the spread the last seven meetings.

With all the system parameters met, this week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week qualifies the Louisville Cardinals plus the points over the Syracuse Orange on Saturday in New York as the Sunsets on this home favorite.

SEC Showdowns
By Brian Edwards

There are just three SEC games in Week 10, as five schools venture out of conference to face cupcake opponents. Let’s take a look at all three contests and touch on a number of other SEC-related topics.

**Florida at Vanderbilt**

Most betting shops opened Florida (5-3 straight up, 4-4 against the spread) as a 14-point favorite, but most spots had adjusted to 14 ½ by Wednesday due to the news of Warren Norman’s season-ending injury. The total is 46 at most books. Bettors can take the Commodores on the money line for a plus-430 payout (risk $100 to win $430).

Vanderbilt (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) has lost three straight games both SU and ATS, including last week’s 49-14 loss at Arkansas as a 19 ½-point underdog. The Commodores actually jumped out to a 14-6 lead in the first quarter, only to allow the Razorbacks to score 43 unanswered points.

Vandy’s Norman, a sophomore RB who is also a standout on special teams, rushed for 64 yards on just 11 carries and had a 40-yard kick return before suffering a wrist injury that’ll sideline him for the rest of the year. Norman had rushed for a team-high 459 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 6.0 yards per carry.

UF snapped its first three-game losing streak in the regular season since 1988 by beating Georgia 34-31 in overtime last week. The Gators took the cash as one-point underdogs, but those who got their money-line wagers in during the week brought home at least a plus-120 payout (risk $100 to win $120). There was no ‘plus’ money available Saturday as the line moved from UGA minus 2 ½ to UGA minus one or even pick ‘em at some books.

Chas Henry, a senior punter who has had an excellent career but has been thrust into the place-kicking role this year due to Caleb Sturgis’ back injury, buried a 37-yard field goal to lift the Gators past the Dawgs in the extra session. UGA had the ball first in OT, but Will Hill intercepted an Aaron Murray pass and nearly took it back for a walk-off pick-six. However, he stepped out of bounds at the four yard line.

The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for the Gators, 1-1 in their road assignments. Meanwhile, totals have been a wash for Vandy both overall (4-4) and in its home games (2-2).

Florida has won 19 in a row over Vandy, beating the Commodores 27-3 as a 35-point home favorite last season. When these schools met in Nashville two years ago, UF took the cash in a 42-14 triumph as a 23 ½-point road ‘chalk.’

The SEC Network will have the telecast at 12:20 p.m. Eastern.

**Alabama at LSU**

These bitter rivals have had two weeks to prep for this crucial SEC West battle. The winner stays in the division race, the SEC title hunt and the national-title picture. The loser? Well, the loser is hatin’ it, headed to the Sugar Bowl (at best) but more likely en route to a New Year’s Day game in the Sunshine State (that might start before noon Eastern).

As of Thursday morning, most books were listing Alabama (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) as the favorite by six or 6 ½, while the total was either 44 or 44 ½. The home underdog can be had to win outright for a plus-210 payout (risk $100 to win $210).

Sportsbook.com has ‘Bama listed as a little richer ‘chalk’ than other spots. The website’s Senior Oddsmaker Mike Perry told VI on Wednesday, “We opened Alabama at 6 ½ but have already moved to seven. We started the total at 44 but are now at 44 ½. On the side, 88% of our action has been on the Crimson Tide.”

Nick Saban’s team is coming off a 41-10 win at Tennessee as a 17-point road favorite. Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram combined to rush 26 times for 207 yards and three touchdowns. Greg McElroy completed 21-of-32 passes for 264 yards without throwing an interception.

Les Miles’ squad is in bounce-back mode after seeing its unbeaten record go up in smoke in a 24-17 loss at Auburn as a 5 ½-point road underdog. As it tends to do, LSU hung in there on The Plains, tying the game at 10-10 just before halftime and also knotting the score at 17-17 early in the final stanza. But a 70-yard TD run by Onterio McCalebb midway through the fourth quarter proved to be the undoing for the Bayou Bengals, who were out-yarded 526-243 in the game.

As a home underdog during Miles’ six-year tenure, LSU is 0-2 both SU and ATS. The losses came to ‘Bama in ’08 (see below) and to Florida (13-3) last season.

Alabama is 9-5 ATS as a road favorite on Saban’s watch.

There’s enough on the line in this contest, but we’d be remiss to not bring up the fact that this is Saban’s second trip to Baton Rouge since leaving LSU for the Dolphins, only to end up back in the SEC West a few years later. Since Saban got to Alabama, the Tide has won two of three head-to-head meetings, going 2-0-1 ATS. When these schools squared off at Tiger Stadium in 2008, LSU was the better team in every facet of the game except for the final score. The Tigers couldn’t overcome QB Jarrett Lee’s inept play (in fairness to Lee, who was a true freshman, he wasn’t ready for this type of game yet and the blame should actually fall on Ryan Perrilloux, whose dismissal from the program led to Lee becoming the starter) and lost a 27-21 decision in overtime as three-point home underdogs.

Alabama beat LSU by a 24-15 count as a 7 ½-point home favorite in last year’s encounter that was much closer than the final score indicated. A late field goal from the Crimson Tide gave ‘Bama backers the cover.

The ‘under’ is 6-2 overall for LSU, 4-0 in its home games that haven’t seen more than 42 combined points. Meanwhile, ‘Bama has seen the ‘under’ go 4-3-1 overall, but the ‘over’ is 3-1 in its road contests.

The ‘over’ has hit in four consecutive head-to-head meetings between these schools.

CBS will provide television coverage at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Arkansas at South Carolina**

Most books opened South Carolina (6-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) as a three-point favorite for this key SEC clash. When Arkansas wide receiver Greg Childs was ruled out for the season on Tuesday, gamblers saw the number move to 3 ½ or 4 at most spots. The total is 59 and the Razorbacks are plus-160 on the money line (risk $100 to win $160).

Arkansas (6-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) has covered the number in five of its last six games, including back-to-back home wins over Ole Miss (38-24) and Vandy (49-14) since losing at Auburn in Week 7.

South Carolina failed to cover the number in last week’s 38-24 home win over Tennessee as a 17 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ Junior QB Stephen Garcia rushed for a pair of touchdowns and hit Alshon Jeffrey for a 70-yard scoring strike that put the Gamecocks up 31-24 early in the fourth quarter.

South Carolina RB Marcus Lattimore has probably been the nation’s premier true freshman this year. Despite missing 1 ½ games, Lattimore is second in the SEC in rushing with 722 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Lattimore came back against UT last week after missing the win over Vandy in Week 8 with a sprained ankle. He torched the Vols for 184 rushing yards and one TD on 29 carries.

Arkansas is led by senior QB Ryan Mallett, who has 2,449 passing yards and an 18/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Michigan transfer threw for 409 yards and three TDs without being intercepted in last week’s win over Vandy. However, Mallett will be without Childs this week and might also be missing WR Joe Adams, who is “questionable” with an ankle sprain. Adams has 30 receptions for 544 yards and four TDs this year.

The Hogs are 5-5 ATS as road underdogs during Petrino’s three-year tenure. They are 1-1 both SU and ATS on the road this year, winning at Georgia (31-24) before losing at Auburn (65-43).

The ‘over’ is 5-2 overall for the Gamecocks, 3-1 in their home games. They are 5-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at Williams-Brice Stadium this season.

During Steve Spurrier’s six-year tenure, South Carolina owns a 12-8 spread record as a home favorite.

South Carolina senior safety and special-teams ace Chris Culliver was lost for the season in last week’s win over UT. Culliver sustained a torn pectoral muscle. Junior C.C. Whitlock is expected to move into the starting lineup against the SEC’s top-ranked passing offense.

Kick-off is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Arkansas is second in the SEC in scoring offense, averaging 35.0 points per game.

South Carolina’s Garcia is enjoying the best season of his up-and-down collegiate career. The Tampa product is second in the SEC in passing efficiency and third in passing yards. Garcia has a 13/7 TD-INT ratio and has rushed for four TDs.

Although Kentucky is just 4-5 this year, the team is still alive to go to a bowl game for a fifth straight year (an unheard of accomplishment before Rich Brooks’ arrival in Lexington). The Wildcats, who host Charleston Southern this week (no line yet as of Thursday), finish at home vs. Vandy and then get an open date before going to Knoxville in an attempt to end a 25-game losing streak against Tennessee. Senior QB Mike Hartline has enjoyed a banner year and deserves props galore. He came into 2010 with more career interceptions than touchdowns, but he has an excellent 19/8 TD-INT ratio this year.

If Vandy upsets Florida and South Carolina beats Arkansas, the Gamecocks will win the SEC East for the first time since coming into the league in 1992. If the Gators beat the Commodores, they will host South Carolina at The Swamp next week for the division title and a trip to Atlanta (regardless of what happens in the Ark-SC game).

Perry of Sportsbook.com, who is now a weekly guest on the Power Hours, told VI on Wednesday that Oregon was the most one-sided bet on the college football board for the website this week. Perry said, “We opened at Oregon -28 but moved all the way up to 35 ½ when it was announced that Washington QB Jake Locker was out. The line move has not impacted the players one bit, as 96% are behind the Ducks.

vegasinsider.com

Top 25 Battles
By Bodog

Several crucial games in terms of conference and national title implications this weekend, so let’s get right into it:

No. 22 Baylor (7-2) at No. 19 Oklahoma State (7-1)

This matchup between two of college football’s highest-scoring offenses will go a long way in deciding the Big 12 South divisional race. Oklahoma State ranks second nationally with 527.3 yards of offense per game and tied for third with 45.3 points per game; Baylor, no slouch itself on offense, averages 34.3 points and 490.4 yards per game. The Bears come into this contest as a seven-point underdog, due in large part to their relative lack of inexperience in meaningful late-season games. Baylor hasn’t been ranked in the Top-25 since 1993 but did beat in-state rivals Texas last week in what might’ve been its biggest win of the season, so emotions and momentum are riding high.

No. 4 TCU (9-0) at No. 6 Utah (8-0)

Talk about your BCS Busters. Horned Frogs vs. Utes is not just the biggest Mountain West Conference clash of the year – it’s likely the decider on which program will be BCS Bowl-bound this January. TCU comes in the favorite (-5.0) as an experienced, veteran team that has simply rolled up the opposition this year: Beginning in Week 3 with a 45-10 win over now-No. 22 Baylor, TCU has gone on to win games by scores of 41-24, 27-0, 45-0, 31-3, 38-7 and 48-6. While some sharps in the betting community will point to the fact that TCU has never won in three trips to Salt Lake City – which includes a 2008 loss to Utah that pushed the Utes into BCS Bowl-land – that can be countered by memories of last season. What was supposed to be a classic Mountain West clash ended up a dud as the Horned Frogs hammered the Utes 55-28.

No 13 Arizona (7-1) at No. 10 Stanford (7-1)

The big question surrounding this game: Will Nick Foles be able to go? Arizona’s star junior QB has missed the last two games with a dislocated kneecap and while the Wildcats offense hasn’t exactly struggled without him (44 points against Washington, 29 against UCLA), the passing game certainly misses his precision. Foles is one of the most accurate passers in college football, working at a ridiculous 75.3 completion percentage this year. This is also a great chance for him to stack up against Stanford QB Andrew Luck, widely thought of as one of the best quarterbacks in the country and a possible top-five NFL draft pick for 2011. Because of the uncertainty surrounding Foles, Arizona comes into this one as a 9.5-point underdog, but take note: Stanford has had trouble closing out games at home recently. There was a 38-28 decision over lowly Washington State and a 37-35 nail biter over USC.

Fade Alert - Week 10
By Bruce Marshall

Several college teams are beginning to lose momentum as the season moves into November. The following sides could be candidates to "fade" in Saturday action. Teams appear in schedule order...

Michigan... On the plus side for the Wolverines, the NCAA has decided to exonerate HC Rich Rodriguez for any penalties related to the extra practive controversy, although the football program has been placed on minor probation for its actions. Still, that's seen as a win of sorts for Rodriguez. likely removing the chance the school will dismiss Rich-Rod because of NCAA penalties. But don’t think Rodriguez is safe, as on the field, things are getting a bit dicey for the Wolverines, whose quick break from the gate and surprise Heisman candidacy of QB Denard Robinson now seem like they happened in another millennium. Three straight losses (plus four straight pointspread LS) have scotched all of the BCS talk in Ann Arbor and rekindled some of the debate about the future of Rodriguez, who seemed to move to safe ground after that 5-0 break from the gate. But stretch-drive collapses the past two years are very fresh in the minds of Wolverine backers who fear their team is backing up in a similar manner in 2010. Much like the past two seasons, the defense (ranked 106th) has been atrocious, and even if Rich-Rod does survive, Big Ten sources believe it’s likely that d.c. Greg Robinson will be thrown under the bus. A loss at home vs. Illinois on Saturday also puts a bowl bid, considered a fait accompli a few weeks ago, in jeopardy as well. And even in a best-case scenario, the Wolverines are probably ticketed to a lower-tier bowl at best. Would that be enough to provide Rodriguez a stay of execution? This week hosts Illinois

Wake Forest... We had seen indicators of the Deacs’ downfall earlier this season, and it was confirmed again in last week’s 62-14 mauling at the hands of Maryland. ACC sources have indicated since early September that Jim Grobe’s defense lacked the sort of playmakers it fielded over the past couple of years, reflected by the ongoing cave-in of a stop unit that’s now ranked 117th in overall defense. Moreover, the post-Riley Skinner era at QB continues to be a work in progress, with true frosh Tanner Price seemingly trying to fight a forest fire with a garden hose. Six straight defeats have dropped the Deacs far from the bowl discussion, with the only plus for this week’s game vs. Boston College being that it is to be played at Winston-Salem. The Deacs have at least been competitive at home compared to their 0-4 mark on the road, which includes a pair of 60+ allowances while being outscored a staggering 213-63 in four road games. This week hosts Boston College

Purdue... The season appears to be getting away from the Boilermakers, who enter this week’s battle vs. Wisconsin off two lopsided defeats and unsure who will even be at QB when the Badgers invade Ross-Ade Stadium. With initial starter Robert Mavre out since late September, HC Danny Hope had been going with RS frosh Rob Henry, who had played with some occasional flair, until his finger injury a couple of weeks ago put his status in jeopardy. Henry started last week’s game at Illinois but couldn’t throw a pass, eventually replaced by true frosh Sean Robinson. And with a month left in the campaign, Hope has got to find some answers at QB, and quickly, or Purdue’s once likely bowl assignment could quickly disappear. This week hosts Wisconsin

Minnesota...The Gophers appear ready to completely buckle, with the regime of interim HC Jeff Horton preparing to splinter and players now wondering about their own situations for the future. Last week’s 52-10 home loss vs. Ohio State was the first time the Gophers were truly humiliated this season, and prospects look even more bleak for a final 3-game stretch vs. bowl-bound teams, beginning Saturday at an angry and revenge-minded Michigan State. This week at Michigan State

Vanderbilt... With SEC sources indicating that the Dores are almost certain not to keep interim HC Robbie Caldwell beyond this season, Vandy fans are preparing for an ugly final month of the campaign in Nashville. Things have been unraveling on the field for several weeks, with the switch to Des Kitchens at offensive coordinator failing to ignite the offense beyond the first two series last week at Arkansas; the Dores gained 140 yards when scoring TDs on their first two drives in Faytteville, then were blanked and gained only 13 more yards the rest of the night, with a puzzling switch at QB from Larry Smith to Jared Funk. Caldwell says the QB platoon is now a fixture, however, but it might not matter anyway, especially with top RB Warren Norman now out for the season afer dislocating his wrist at Arkansas. This week hosts Florida

Colorado... The overwhelming consensus among Big XII observers is that HC Dan Hawkins, now 19-38 with the Buffs since arriving at Boulder in 2006 and owning a 15-game losing streak on the road, is a dead man walking these days, with the only the timing of the announcement of his dismissal still in question. The thought is that as long as the Buffs retain hope of bowl eligibility, Hawkins will stay in place. And even if the Buffs do the unlikely and win 3 of their next 4 to qualify for the postseason, school administrators are not likely to flinch, having been on record that Hawkins needed a "good" bowl invitation to feel secure about his position. That doesn’t appear in the offing, especially with an injury-ravaged defense finding it harder and harder to compete after allowing 1608 yards of offense over the past three weeks. With QB Tyler Hansen having been lost for the season, Hawkins’ son Cody is now back in the saddle for the offense, creating a sad but surreal spectacle, with young Cody essentially playing to save his dad’s job over the next few weeks. Unfortunately, the Big XII doesn’t always play out like a Disney movie. This week at Kansas

UNLV... Overscheduled from the outset, the Rebels put up a few decent fights in September, but their season has been mostly downhill since. Now officially eliminated from the bowl discussion (as if it was ever a consideration), UNLV enters an awkward final month of the campaign with little to play for except establishing some momentum for the future. Which means at some point first-year HC Bobby Hauck is likely to go with a pure youth movement, including taking along look at the QB of the future, RS frosh Caleb Herring, likely at the expense of sr. and 4-year starter Omar Clayton. Which might not go over too well with all of the holdovers from the preceding Mike Sanford regime. Overall, the Rebs enter Saturday’s game at BYU having lost 9 of their last 10 spread decisions on the road. This week at BYU

Washington... The U-Dub campaign has really gone pear-shaped, and we might not have even seen the worst of it yet. That might come Saturday at top-ranked Oregon. Which is a very scary assignment for a Huskies team that has lost and failed to cover six straight vs. the Ducks, has been pounded mercilessly in its last two games (44-14 loss at Arizona and 41-0 loss at home vs. Stanford), and is now minus QB Jake Locker for at least this week’s game at Eugene with broken ribs. That’s just the latest in a series of maladies that have impacted Locker, who had been slowed by a deep thigh bruise that limited his mobility in recent outings. Little-used RB frosh Keith Price thus gets thrown to the wolves, er, Ducks, Saturday at Autzen Stadium. Most scary for HC Steve Sarkisian is trying to stop a rampaging Oregon "O" that’s scoring 63 ppg at home this season, with his own bullet-riddled "D" that has been trampled the past two weeks by Arizona and Stanford and is now allowing 34.1 ppg, ranking a lowly 106th in the nation. This week at Oregon

Washington State... We saw this last year from the Cougs, who covered some numbers in the middle stages of the season but were worn out down the stretch, losing contact with their last four foes. The fear among Wazzu fans is that the team could be starting the same late-season slide as a year ago following last week’s brutal 42-0 bombardment at Tempe, administered by host Arizona State. Soph QB Jeff Tuel, bravely trying to keep WSU within earshot for most of the season, endured his worst outing of ‘10 last week at ASU and was pulled in the 4th Q for former starter Marshall Lobbestahl. This could strike an ominous note for HC Paul Wulff, acknowledged to be on the hot seat entering 2010 and with one year to prove to new AD Bill Moos (a former Cougar player under Jim Sweeney in the early ‘70s) that he belongs on the job. Moos had seen some progress during the middle stages of the season, but it’s unlikely he would react favorably if Wazzu again stumbles down the stretch. This week hosts Cal

Texas Tech... Supporters of new HC Tommy Tuberville believed that he would fill in some of the obvious gaps from the preceding Mike Leach regime, looking to balance the offense with a more-credible infantry diversion while beefing up the defense. In theory that sounds interesting, but in reality it is not working for the 4-4 Red Raiders, who are going to have to scramble to get bowl-eligible. Instead, "Tuberville Tech" has been lacking the identity of Leach’s pass-happy offenses and swashbuckling teams, and the worry in Lubbock in the longer Tuberville sticks around, the less the offense will resemble the dynamic Leach versions. We also know that Tuberville politicked hard for this job in Lubbock, and suspect the program is not going to progress much under his leadership. This week hosts Missouri

UTEP... The Miners looked almost a shoe-n for one of CUSA’s many bowl berths when breaking 5-1 from the gate. But three straight losses (vs. conference foes that were all winless in league play before seeing UTEP) have put the Miners’ postseason hopes in jeopardy and could be ominous for vet HC Mike Price as well. The offense has really bogged down in recent week, with QB Trevor Vittatoe bordering on awful, completing only 49% of this throws with just 2 TD passes and 6 picks the past three weeks. And RB Donald Buckram does not look the same as a year ago, slowed by a bruised knee. In retrospect, UTEP might be in bowl contention simply be default, with early wins over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, New Mexico State, Memphis, New Mexico, and Rice getting it on the brink of bowl eligibility. This week hosts SMU.

Memphis... An argument could be made that the Tigers might be the worst team in the country at the moment, although Memphis might be laying a point or two to New Mexico for a game played in Kansas City. We’re being hypothetical, of course. In reality, however, HC Larry Porter’s rebuilding program figured to be long arduous, and a couple of unexpected solid efforts in September (including a 24-17 home win over Middle Tennessee) temporarily buoyed hopes. But the offense has fared just as poorly as the defense lately, with Porters claim that the Tigers were going to be throwing the ball more relative only to an option team such as Army; QBs Ryan Williams and Cannon Smith combined for just 12 pass attempts in last week’s Liberty Bowl loss vs. Houston. The Tigers have been outscored 201-43 over their last four games, allowing 56 to both Louisville and Houston along the way. Meanwhile, the defense ranks only above sieve-like Washington Stare in national stats, while the sluggish offense is now 117th in scoring at 14.3 ppg. That’s not a very appealing combination. This week hosts Tennessee

Saturday's Highlighted Games

Clemson won last six games vs NC State by 16-point average, with Pack losing last two visits here 27-9 (+20)/20-14 (+18). Underdogs are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 series games. Tigers are 2-4 vs I-A opponents, 0-4 if they give up more than 13 points- they're 2-0-1 as home fave. NC State is 3-1 as underdog this year; average total in their three road games, 60.7. Under is 6-0-1 in Clemson games this season.

Michigan lost back/back games to Illinois for first time since '58; they've lost last three games, with no takeaways (-7), allowing 37.0 ppg in last four. Wolverines are 2-3 as a favorite this year; Rodriguez has awful 3-17 record SU in Oct/Nov with Wolverines. Illinois won three of last four games, scoring 87 points last two weeks; they're 1-1 on road, whipping Penn State 33-13 (+7.5), losing 26-6 at Michigan St (+7; led 6-3 as half).

Joe Paterno goes for win #400 here; he beat Northwestern in last three meetings, 34-13 (-17), 33-7 here (-19), 34-29 (-8). Underdogs are 5-2 in Wildcat games this year; Northwestern is 4-0 on road, scoring 25.5 ppg against four weak teams. PSU was held to 3-3-13 points in three losses; they're 1-2 as home favorite this year, 2-8 in last 10 tries as favorite at home. Five of last seven Penn State games went over total.

Oklahoma State is 13-1 in last 14 games vs Baylor, winning last couple games played here, 34-6 (-17)/66-24 (-16), but 2010 Bears are improved, scoring 30+ points in last six games (5-1) beating Texas last week for the first time in 13 years. Baylor allowed 45 points in both losses this year, 45-10 at TCU (+21), 45-38 on neutral field to Texas Tech (+2.5). Four of last five Baylor games went over the total, as have six of eight OSU games. Cowboys are 4-1-1 as a favorite this season.

SEC home favorites of 10 or less points are 10-3 vs spread so far in '10. Home side won last three Arkansas-South Carolina games, with South Carolina losing three of last four meetings (favorites covered four of last five in series). Arkansas scored 130 points in last three games; they had 21+ points at half in last four, and held foes to 11 of last 52 on 3rd down conversions. Razorbacks' last three games all went over the total.

Don't sleep on Hawai'i team that won/covered last five games, holding all five teams to 27 or less points; they've lost eight of last nine meetings vs Boise State, losing last two games on blue turf, 27-7/41-34. Broncos won 33-30 vs Va Tech, 37-24 over Oregon State against two good teams they played earlier this year. Hawai'i's two losses were 49-36 to USC, 31-13 at Colorado. Five of last seven Boise games went over the total.

Oklahoma won last seven games vs Texas A&M, winning last two visits here, 17-16/66-28; Sooners struggled on road this year, beating Cincinnati 31-29 (-14), Texas 28-20 (-3.5), losing 36-27 at Missouri (-3). Aggies are 5-3, scoring 45 points in each of last two games; they're 0-1-1 as the dog, losing 38-35 at home to Oklahoma State, 24-17 vs Arkansas on a neutral field. Big 12 home underdogs are 2-9 against the spread.

Visitor is 3-2 in last five Arizona-Stanford games, with four of five won by five or less points (dogs 3-2 vs spread). Arizona is underdog for first time this year; they covered three of last four as a dog LY. Over is 3-1 in last four games for both teams. Stanford is 1-2 as home favorite in 2010; they scored 41 ppg in last seven games, but before they waxed hapless Wash State last week, they had allowed 38.3 ppg in previous three.

Home side won four of last five TCU-Utah games; Horned Frogs lost last two visits here, 13-10/20-7. TCU is 11-3 vs spread in last 14 regular season games- they outscored last five opponents 90-3 in second half of games. Utah won 28-23 at Air Force last week, but Falcons scored last two TDs, making it seem closer than it was. Not exactly sure how Utah is 8-0 and a 5-point home underdog. MWC home dogs of 14 points or less are 4-0-1 vs spread so far this season.

Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Oregon State's road games this year, with Beavers 1-3 as favorite; OSU won 34-6 in last visit here, after losing the previous two visits, 25-7/51-28. UCLA lost last three games, giving up average of 41.3 ppg- they were outscored 79-10 in first half of the three games. Single digit home underdogs are 1-3 in Pac-10 this year. Four of last five UCLA games went over the total.

Missouri won last two games vs Texas Tech, 41-10/38-21; Tigers lost first game of year last week at Nebraska- three of their last four games stayed under total. Only third road game of year for Mizzou, which had big 30-9 win at Texas A&M in road opener. Texas Tech lost four of last six games, allowing 38.4 ppg in last five. Big 12 home underdogs are 2-9 against the spread this year.

Saban makes second trip back to LSU; he won first two meetings against his old team, 24-15 LY (-7), 27-21 in OT (-3) in '08. Tide is 2-1 on road this year, winning at Duke (62-13), Arkansas (24-20), losing at South Carolina (35-21)- they have ten INTs in last five games. LSU lost tough game at Auburn last time out, their first loss of year; for a team without lot of takeaways (-4 in turnovers last five games) and subpar QB play, Tigers win lot of games. Three of Bama's last four road games went over the total. Both teams had last week off.

USC is 5-3, losing three of last four games; they scored 31-35-32 points in their three losses. Trojans won last 10 games vs Arizona State, taking last two played here, 28-0 (-26)/28-21 (-19). USC is just 4-3 in its last seven home games overall. Sun Devils are 3-1 as road underdog this year, with only one road loss by more than a FG. ASU is -8 in turnovers last five games. Pac-10 home favorites of less than 8 points are 6-2 in '10.

Rest of the Card

-- Air Force is 12-1 in last 13 games vs Army, winning last six visits to West Point by average of 19 points. Falcons lost last three games overall, are 1-3 on road, with only road win 20-14 at Wyoming. Six of last seven Air Force games stayed under total.
-- Maryland won four of last five games; they're 2-2 as road dog in 2010, losing away games by 14-24 points; since '06, Terrapins are 9-11 as road dog. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Miami games. Not sure if injured Miami QB Harris will return to action here or not.
-- Duke beat Virginia 28-17/31-3 last two years, after losing 17 of last 19 games vs Cavaliers; Blue Devils are 1-6 vs I-A foes, allowing 39.3 ppg. Four of last five Virginia games went over the total.
-- Underdog covered last five Louisville-Syracuse games, with an average total of 55.3 in last four. Orange won three of last four games (all as dog) allowing total of 30 points in the wins. Cardinals are 1-3 as underdogs.
-- Iowa is 5-1 as a favorite this year, 1-0 on road; four of its five wins vs I-A opponents are by 21+ points. Hawkeyes covered last four tries as a road favorite. Indiana is 0-4 in Big 11, 2-0 as home dog, losing 42-35 to Michigan (+10), 20-17 (+3.5) to Northwestern last week.

-- Boston College won four of last five games vs Wake Forest, but Eagles lost five of last six games, are 0-2 on road, losing 44-17 at NC State (+9), 24-19 at Florida State (+22). Wake lost last six games, with four losses by 31+ points.
-- Wisconsin won last four games vs Purdue by 18-point average. Boilers are down to #3 QB- they lost last two games by combined 93-10, both on road. Underdogs are 7-0 vs spread in Wisconsin games this season.
-- Underdog is 6-2 SU in Michigan State-Minnesota games, as Gophers won last three meetings, 41-18/31-18/42-34. Minnesota lost last seven games, allowing 36 ppg in last four. Spartans had first loss last week, but covered the four games before that. Florida
-- Florida State won 30-27 in Chapel Hill LY, after trailing 24-6 in 3rd quarter; Seminoles are 3-2 as favorite this year. North Carolina trailed by 10 in 4th quarter to I-AA team last week, but rallied for shaky 21-17 win a week after they got waxed 33-10 at Miami.
-- Florida won last 19 games vs Vanderbilt, winning 42-14/25-19 in last two visits here; Gators ended 3-game skid with OT win over Georgia in rivalry game last week. Vandy lost last three games by total of 113-21.

-- Home side won four of last five Colorado-Kansas games; Buffs lost last two visits here, 30-14 (+14)/20-15 (+2)- they've lost last four games, are 0-3 on road, losing the three games by combined score of 121-17.
-- Ball State lost last four games, allowing 37.5 ppg; they're -10 last four games in turnovers. Akron is 0-9, covering one of last four- they've been outscored 65-6 in first half of their last three games. Home side is 5-2 in last seven series games. If you bet on this game, call GA......please.
-- BYU won last five games vs UNLV, winning last two played here by 42-35 (-23)/52-7 (-28) scores. Seven of eight BYU games stayed under total. Rebels lost their last four games by an average score of 46-13.
-- Tulsa won four of last five games vs Rice, with average total of 72.0 in those games; Hurricane is 2-2 as favorite this year. Rice is 3-2 as a home underdog this year; Owls' last four games all went over the total.
-- Home side won three of last four Temple-Kent games; Owls lost last visit here, 41-38. Temple is 7-2, winning last two games by total of 72-0. Kent is 3-2 in MAC, winning last two games while scoring 63 points.

-- Utah State was outscored 66-10 in first half of last three games, losing by 18-38-14 points; they're 3-2 in last five games vs New Mexico State- this is first time USU is favored this year. NM State covered last three games, split last four SU, with both wins by two points.
-- Navy (-13) got upset 34-31 by Duke last week (trailed 24-0 at half), just their second loss in last seven games. East Carolina scored 37.3 ppg in last four games; they're 2-0 as favorite this year. Six of last eight ECU games went over the total.
-- Washington's star QB Locker is out for Oregon game; Huskies lost last six games vs Ducks by average score of 42-17. Oregon is scoring a stupid 54.9 ppg; could they have a letdown after last week's win at USC, with dicey trip to Berkeley on deck next week?
-- army.com is America's favorite website.
-- Southern Miss won its last five games vs Tulane by average score of 22-7, winning last three by average of 33-5. Eagles scored 41+ points in each of last four games, but they lost 50-49 to UAB last week. Tulane is 4-2 as an underdog this year, 1-1 at home (6-14-1 as HU since '05).
-- Iowa State was an unthinkable +8 in turnovers in Lincoln LY, pulled 9-7 upset, its first win at Nebraska since '77. Cyclones are 5-4 despite three losses by 28+ points this year. Cornhuskers scored 155 points in three road games, winning by 56-21/48-13/51-41 scores.

-- Texas lost last two times they played K-State, losing three of last four visits to Manhattan. Wildcats are 26-5 SU in last 31 November games at home. Longhorns lost four of last five games, allowing 28+ points in all four losses. Six of eight Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Fresno State is 8-3 in last 11 games vs Louisiana Tech, with hosts 5-2 in last seven series games. Home team is 5-2 vs spread in WAC games if spread is 7 or less points. State is 2-1 on road, winning at Utah State and San Jose, losing 55-38 at Ole Miss.
-- Gritty UAB already played three games decided by one point and two OT games (1-1); dogs covered four of their last five games vs Marshall. Marshall scored only 14 ppg in last four games; they're 1-4 as underdogs this year, with five of their six losses by 16+ points.
-- Nevada won last five games vs Idaho by average score of 53-20; they won last two visits here, 49-14/45-7. Wolf Pack allowed 42 points last week in second half, after leading Utah State 35-0 at half. Vandals are 4-4 they scored 34+ points in two of their last three losses.
-- Junior QB Mansion makes first college start for Cal, which won five in row over Washington State by average score of 40-16. Bears are 0-4 on road, giving up 36.3 ppg. Pac-10 home dogs of 22 or less are 1-4-1.

-- Wyoming lost five of last six visits to New Mexico, with only win by 14-10 score; Cowboys are 1-7 vs I-A teams (beat Toledo 20-15). New Mexico is 0-8, 2-6 vs spread, with one loss by less than 10 points. This is another game where if you bet on it, call Gamblers Anonymous.
-- Tennessee won last five games vs Memphis by average score of 46-20; Vols gave up 41-41-38 points in losing last three SEC games, but Tigers are awful, losing last four games by average score of 40-11. C-USA dogs are 14-11 vs spread out of conference, 7-3 at home.
-- Home side won four of last five SMU-UTEP games; Mustangs lost last two visits here, 36-10 (+13), 24-21 (+12). Miners lost three in row after 5-1 start, scoring 15.3 ppg. C-USA home underdogs are 3-5.
-- San Diego State won four of last five vs Colorado State (visitor is 4-1 in last five); Aztecs are bowl eligible, scoring 35 ppg in last three games. Rams covered five of last six games, but are 1-4 as road dog. Five of last six San Diego State games stayed under total.

-- UL-Lafayette lost last four games, allowing 44.3 ppg; six of their eight games went over total. Ole Miss played Bama-Arkansas-Auburn in last three weeks, have to have letdown here. Sun Belt road underdogs are 7-8 against the spread in non-conference games.
-- FAU beat Western Kentucky last two years, 29-23 (-14)/24-20 (-2.5); Owls lost four of last five games overall; five of their last six games went under total. Single digit Sun Belt home dogs are 1-3 vs spread.
-- UL-Monroe won four of its last five vs FIU, winning 31-27 (+7)/35-0 (-1.5) in last two visits here. ULM (+16) upset Troy at home last week; they're 2-3 as road dog this year, losing by 24-14-49-28 on the road.
-- Troy State won last five games vs North Texas, winning 45-17 (-24)/ 13-10 (+2) in last two visits here; they're 0-5 vs spread as favorites this year, with only one win by more than seven points. North Texas is 0-4 at home this year, losing by 1-1-5-24 points.

NCAAF Week 10 Line Moves

It’s a huge weekend of college football in Week 10. And when we say huge, we mean “Cam Newton price tag” huge. There are plenty of important games on the schedule that could very well determine how the bowls trickle down.

We talk to Todd Fuhrman, race and sports analyst for Caesar’s Palace in Las Vegas, about the most interesting line moves on the Week 10 board.

North Carolina State Wolfpack at Clemson Tigers – Open: -2.5 Move: -4

Oddsmakers hate to admit when their wrong and the betting public is always quick to point out those mistakes, which is the case with this move from -2.5 past the key number to -4 as of Friday afternoon.

“I think with this game we may have overvalued the injury to Clemson’s Andre Ellington (out two weeks with an injured two),” says Fuhrman. “We apparently set it too short and money came pouring in on Clemson. North Carolina State may have also been overvalued, after a big win over Florida State to move to 6-2.”

Washington Huskies at Oregon Ducks – Open: -27.5 Move: -35

The injury to Washington QB Jake Locker is the biggest catalyst behind this major line swing, however, Fuhrman believes the Ducks popularity and powerful offense are putting them in the same conversation as Boise State, which has never seen a spread it couldn’t cover.

“We knew as soon as (Locker) was ruled out, we would get a ton on money on Oregon. He’s one of the few quarterbacks who can move a line this much,” he says. “Bettors love that high-powered offense of the Ducks and lines can’t get high enough to draw action on the other side.”

TCU Horned Frogs at Utah Utes – Open: +5 Move: +6.5 to +4.5

Sharp money forced books to move the Utes to a near-touchdown underdog before the wiseguys starting buying back the Utes, pushing the number back down to +4.5 as if Friday afternoon.

“This is one of the rare big game in which we have solid two-way action on,” says Fuhrman. “There’s a lot to like about Utah. They have that 21-game undefeated streak at home and I think they still have a lot of show on offense and will open up the playbook this weekend.”

Arkansas Razorbacks at South Carolina Gamecocks – Open: -3 Move: -4.5

Fuhrman says the early movement on this line was due to the release of a play on South Carolina from a well-known tout service.

“You hate to think a tout could have such an impact on the line,” he says. “I think the injury to (Arkansas WR) Greg Childs is a huge blow and expect South Carolina to pound Marcus Lattimore against a weak Razorbacks run defense (163 yards against per game).”

Arizona Wildcats at Stanford Cardinal – Open: -8.5 Move: -9.5

There are a lot of questions surrounding the Wildcats QB position with Nick Foles returning from the dislocated knee and backup Matt Scott looking shaky against UCLA last weekend. Fuhrman could see this spread climbing to the key number of 10 by the 8 p.m. ET kickoff.

“This one starts and stops with the uncertainty at the Arizona quarterback position,” says Fuhrman. “You don’t know how capable Foles is, coming off that knee injury, dropping back. I still think Stanford is an underrated team.”

Game of the day: Alabama at LSU

Both Alabama and Louisiana State know they have to be perfect from here on out to maintain their hopes of playing for the SEC title – and, for that matter, the national championship.

One of them is likely to see those dreams slip away Saturday when the fifth-ranked Crimson Tide visits the No. 11 Tigers in a crucial SEC Western Division showdown.

Tiger Bomb

The Tigers (7-1, 4-1 SEC) are still stinging from seeing their title hopes take a hit. They had a bye week to recover from a 24-17 loss at Auburn on Oct. 23, a game in which they allowed a whopping 440 rushing yards - they had allowed only 585 rushing yards in the previous seven games combined.

The run defense will be tested again Saturday, as the Tigers will have to face the formidable duo of reigning Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and electrifying sophomore Trent Richardson. Richardson leads the team with 606 rushing yards and has scored five touchdowns and Ingram is right behind him with 544 yards and eight touchdowns despite missing the first two games of the season after arthroscopic knee surgery.

Richardson, who leads the SEC and ranks second in the nation with 181.8 all-purpose yards per game, also has three receiving touchdowns and a kickoff return for a score.

Crimson Dynamo

Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC) is hardly one-dimensional. Senior quarterback Greg McElroy ranks eighth in the nation in passing efficiency (163.35) and has thrown for 1,781 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. He also has a big-time receiver in junior Julio Jones.

Jones leads the team with 45 receptions for 669 yards and three touchdowns. He caught 12 passes for a school-record 221 yards in a 41-10 win against Tennessee on Oct. 23.

That balanced attack will be put to the test against LSU, which hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown in the same game yet this season.

Stop signs

The Tigers lead the SEC in total defense (277.6 yards per game) and passing defense (149.5 yards per game) and rank second in scoring defense (15.6 points per game). LSU ranks in the top 10 in the nation in all three categories.

Alabama's defense had its share of troubles Oct. 9 in a 35-21 loss at South Carolina, but the Tide has turned that around the past two games, holding Mississippi and Tennessee to 10 points each in consecutive SEC victories.

The Tide had its streak of 41 consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher snapped against the Vols, as junior Tauren Poole rushed for 117 yards on 14 carries. They'll face a challenge in trying to start a new streak against LSU's Stevan Ridley, who ranks second in the SEC with 90.4 rushing yards per game and has three 100-yard games to his credit this season.

The Tigers have struggled to find consistency under center, as Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee have split time at quarterback for the past four games. Jefferson, who has started each game, gives the Tigers more of a threat to run - his 281 rushing yards rank second behind Ridley - while Lee is a more accurate passer.

Alabama leads the series 45-23-5, including a 25-8-2 record in Baton Rouge. The Tigers had won five straight before the Crimson Tide won the past two meetings, including a 24-15 home win last season.

Trends

- The favorite is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these programs.
- Road team is 11-2-1 in the last 14 games between Alabama and LSU.
- Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Louisiana State.
- Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these SEC rivals.

Arizona at Stanford: What Bettors Need to Know
By Marc Lawrence

The Pac-10 takes center stage when No. 13 Arizona meets No. 12 Stanford at the Farm in Palo Alto Saturday night.

Thorny issue

Arizona knows its Rose Bowl fate resides in its own hands. Simply put: run the table and the Wildcats are in.

They are the only current member of the Pac-10 or the Big Ten never to have appeared in the Rose Bowl. Meanwhile, Stanford’s players were still in elementary school the last time the Cardinal smelled roses.

The closest the desert rats came to playing for the roses was 1988 when they lost early on to UCLA, only to see the 10-2 Bruins roll and edge out the 12-1 Wildcats for conference honors.

Then there was the Cal Collapse in 1998. Up 20-0 at halftime with the Rose Bowl on the line, Zona folded like a cheap lawn chair and lost 24-20 to the Bears on a fluky interception return for a touchdown.

In all likelihood, Arizona probably won't run a complete sweep against Stanford, USC, Oregon and ASU. But at least, for now, the table has been set.

Squirt size attack

Speaking of running, water-bug-sized Keola Antolin will start at tailback in the most important game of their season.

Finally healthy, Antolin has sparked the Wildcats' once-dormant running attack over the last month. In four games, he has 66 carries for 387 yards and six touchdowns and caught seven passes for 72 yards and a touchdown.

Antolin cracked the Wildcats' starting lineup against Washington State three weeks ago and has held on to the job, forcing senior Nicolas Grigsby into a supporting role.

Antolin showed flashes of greatness during his first two years only to be derailed by injuries, including turf toe, a separated, shoulder, a hip-pointer and ankle sprains. Yet, Antolin says he feels fresh heading into Saturday's game against No. 12 Stanford.

The 5-foot-8-inch, 186-pound junior has suffered just one injury all season.

"Bruise on my shin," he told reporters. "I feel great. Knock on wood, man. You've just got to be patient. Things will come your way eventually."

Magic touch

When Sonny Dykes left his quarterbacks position to assume the head coaching duties at Louisiana Tech this year, Arizona head coach Mike Stoops didn’t have to wait long before finding a replacement in Frank Scelfo.

The 29-year coaching veteran took the job and has worked wonders with quarterbacks Nick Foles (sidelined by a knee injury for the past few weeks) and Matt Scott. Arizona leads the conference and the nation in completion percentage, completing 74.1 percent of its throws through eight games. The Pac-10's second-best team in terms of completion percentage is Saturday's opponent Stanford, which completes 66.8 percent of its balls.

"That's pretty ridiculous this far through the season," Stoops said of the completion percentage after the Washington game. "That's a credit to both of those players, that's a credit to our offensive staff and certainly coach Scelfo. He does a great job in preparation."

Scelfo coached for 11 seasons at Tulane (1996-2006) and mentored four NFL quarterbacks – Patrick Ramsey, Shaun King, J.P. Losman and Lester Ricard. The 59 year old applied that coaching prowess to Arizona's quarterbacks, as he adjusted Foles' footwork and helped Scott develop a shorter release.

"They were raw, but talented," Scelfo said of Arizona's quarterbacks when he first came to the program. "Skills, physical talents, they had those so I was excited to start working with them.”

Players and coaches rave about the job Scelfo's done with the Wildcats' arms, but Scelfo gives all of the credit to the players.

"That ain't me, that's the kids," Scelfo told the media. "That's those guys. They did it, not me."

Measuring stick

Despite the fact the both teams have only one loss each this season, they still have a lot to prove.

The most talked about aspect of this matchup is Stanford’s high-powered offense against Arizona’s stingy defense.

Looking at the schedule, though, neither Stanford’s offense nor the Arizona defense have been challenged in most of its contests.

Among the Cardinal’s first six lined opponents only one ranks in the top half of the country in scoring defense. That one was Oregon, which shut Stanford out in the second half after the Cardinal jumped out to an 18-point first-half lead. Stanford piled up points against Wake Forest, Washington State and Washington, who all rank in the bottom 15 nationally in points allowed.

This same phenomenon has influenced Arizona’s statistics. The Wildcats have faced lined four opponents ranked worse than 75th in scoring offense, allowing only 11 points per game to them.

On the other hand, Arizona has faced three decent offenses in California, Oregon State and Iowa. The Wildcats held Cal to only nine points, but the Golden Bears have been abysmal on the road this season, losing all four games away from Memorial Stadium. The other two had relative success against Arizona’s defense, scoring at least 27 points in each game.

Overall, Arizona has played five Pac-10 opponents, including the bottom four teams in the conference. The only winning conference team the Wildcats have faced is Oregon State, and the Beavers beat Arizona in Tucson. Thus, the Wildcats have ascended to the top 15 without playing Oregon, Stanford or USC.

Meanwhile, Stanford has played only two teams with winning records, losing to Oregon and squeaking out a victory over USC at home.

Stanford’s defense has been highly inconsistent. It’s had two road shutouts in Pac-10 play, but allowed 38.3 points per outing in a three-game stint against Oregon, USC and Washington State.

The spotlight and pressure are relatively new phenomena for both programs. Arizona will need its best offensive effort to keep up with QB Andrew Luck and the potent Stanford offense.

Charmed by The Farm

Down on The Farm, Jim Harbaugh is a savior. He left 11-1 San Diego to come to 1-11 Stanford.

Harbaugh has become a national icon and, love him or hate him, he has completely transformed the way his eccentricity is viewed by the American public.

In three seasons, he took one of the worst teams in the nation, churned out eight wins and guided the Cardinal to a bowl game for the first time since 2001.

Harbaugh’s job has been difficult. Taking a bottom feeder from irrelevance to the Top 10, while having to battle incredulous academic standards and general apathy, is no easy task.

The student body has to be motivated with arbitrary “points” to come to conference games and alums would rather invest in the next new microchip than the offensive line.

This season, at 7-1, Stanford now ranks among the nation’s elite and is a popular pick as the best one-loss team in the country.

With Michigan (Harbaugh’s alma mater) sniffing about, the word around campus is it will likely take in the neighborhood of $15 million to keep him on the Farm.

The Cardinal is Harbaugh’s baby. Don’t be surprised if he isn’t here for the long haul.

From the archives

• Harbaugh is 16-8 straight up and 14-9 against the spread at home with Stanford, but 14-2 and 11-4 the last three years.

• Stanford is 0-4 straight up and against the spread in this series when playing off back-to-back wins, with all four losses as a favorite.

• Stoops is 21-12 against the spread as a conference dog with the Wildcats, including 12-4 versus .800 or greater opponents.

• The last three meetings in this series have been decided by a total of seven points.

Big Ten Notes - Week 10
By ASA

Michigan Wolverines (5-3, 3-5 ATS) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (5-3, 6-2 ATS)

UM: Last week: Lost to Penn State, 31-41
ILL: Last week: Defeated Purdue, 44-10

Much more was expected from Michigan last week against Penn State. They were coming off of their bye week and facing a banged-up Nittany Lions squad starting a new quarterback. But it was more of the same from this woeful defense. They allowed 41 points and 435 yards and provided no help for QB Robinson and this Michigan offense that once against put up big numbers for naught. They open as a 3 point home favorite over a red-hot Illinois team.

The Fighting Illini are one of the biggest surprises of the CFB season. Once predicted to be a middle of the road Big Ten team, they have a great shot at running the table and finishing 9-3. Their three losses have come against teams that are currently ranked in the top 15 (Michigan State, Ohio State, Missouri) and they’ve played well in each loss. In their past two games against Indiana and Purdue, Illinois has scored 43.5 ppg and has allowed just 11.5 ppg.

Illinois QB Scheelhaase has completed 29/41 (70%) for 318 yards and with six touchdowns and no interceptions in the last two games and he should have another big day against this secondary that allows 290 passing ypg (117th) and 30 ppg (87th). Wolverines QB Robinson is averaging 350 total ypg with 22 touchdowns and always manages to keep this team competitive despite their incompetent defense.

After dropping six straight to Michigan from 2000-2007, the Illini have won the past two (2-0 ATS) by an average score of 42-17. Last year, Illinois ran for 377 yards and four touchdowns and scored 31 unanswered points in their blowout victory. Illinois is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as a road underdog. The Wolverines have failed to cover in four straight games and are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 conference games.

Purdue Boilermakers (4-4, 3-5 ATS) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (7-1, 3-5 ATS)

PU: Last week: Lost to Illinois, 10-44
UW: Last week: Idle

Wisconsin is coming off of a much needed bye week after arguably their two biggest regular season wins of Bret Bielema’s head coaching tenure. The Boilermakers, after a 2-0 conference start, have lost two straight road games by a combined score of 10-93 while getting outgained by a total of 567 yards. UW will try to avoid a letdown against this Purdue squad that still needs a couple of victories to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2007. The Badgers opened as a -19.5 point favorite.

The Badgers dominated last year’s meetings. They held Purdue to just 141 total yards and eight first downs and forced three turnovers in their 37-0 victory. UW’s John Clay rumbled for 123 rushing yards and 3 scores while Purdue QB’s completed just 9 of 33 passes (27%) for 81 yards.

Both of these teams have injury concerns, but Purdue’s injury bug has hit them the hardest. They’ve already lost their top two quarterbacks, top two running backs, and top wide receiver for the season. Their fill in QB Henry, along with a starting cornerback and a starting safety, missed last week’s game and are all questionable for this weekend (Sean Robinson is the #1 QB on Purdue’s depth chart this weekend). UW had a number of key contributors injured in their last game win over Iowa. RB White, TE Kendricks, DT Kohout and WR Toon all missed action. All four are expected to play this weekend.

The Badgers have won four straight (4-0 ATS) over the Boilermakers, winning the last two by a combined score of 61-3. Wisconsin is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 as a road favorite in conference games and just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a double digit favorite on the road. Purdue is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 home games but they are 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a double digit underdog.

Indiana Hoosiers (4-4, 4-4 ATS) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2, 5-3 ATS)

IND: Last week: Lost to Northwestern, 17-20
IOWA: Last week: Defeated Michigan State, 37-6

The Hawkeyes will have to avoid a letdown against Indiana after their 31-point victory over previously undefeated Michigan State last weekend. Indiana lost their fourth consecutive conference game last week in a narrow loss at Northwestern. The Hoosiers upset Iowa in 2006 & 2007, but have dropped the last two by 27 ppg. This is Indiana’s last home game of the season and they opened as a 17 point home underdog.

Iowa trailed Indiana 14-24 in last year’s meeting but exploded for 28 4th quarter points to win 42-24. QB Stanzi threw five interceptions in that game and that more than doubles his INT total for this season. He’s completing 69% of his passes with 19 touchdowns and just two interceptions and has this offense averaging 34 points per game.

Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell and this Indiana offense heavily favor the pass (65/35 pass/run ratio). Chappell is completing 65% of his passes with 18 touchdowns, but has struggled against good defenses. Ohio State and Illinois held this Hoosier offense to just 11.5 ppg and limited Chappell to 56% passing with one touchdown and five interceptions. Iowa’s 12th ranked defense will present another difficult test for Chappell and this Indiana offense.

Iowa is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games but is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 as a double digit road favorite. Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog but just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as a double digit underdog. The Hawkeyes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Indiana.

Michigan State Spartans (8-1, 6-3 ATS) vs. Minnesota Gophers (1-8, 3-6 ATS)

MSU: Last week: Lost to Iowa, 6-37
MINN: Last Week: Lost to Ohio State, 10-52

The Spartans need to forget about last week’s ugly loss quickly because they are still in good shape for a Big Ten title and a trip to the Rose Bowl. They take aim for a little revenge against this Minnesota squad that upset them a year ago. Minnesota QB Weber threw for 416 yards and five touchdowns, but faces a much taller task this time around. Michigan State opened as a 24 point favorite.

After rushing for an average of 225 ypg (5.8 ypc) with 15 touchdowns in the first six games of the season, MSU is averaging just 76 rush ypg (3.2) with just three touchdowns the past three weeks. The Spartans will try to re-ignite their running attack against this Minnesota defense that allows 202 rush ypg (last in the Big Ten and 106th overall).

QB Cousins threw three interceptions last week against Iowa after throwing just four the first eight games of the season. He had a good game against Minnesota last season (236 yards, 2 TD’s) and will look to rebound against this defense that allows over 34 points per game. The Gophers have allowed 428 passing yards (73% completions) and five touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks the past two weeks.

MSU has dropped three straight against the Gophers (losing by an average of 15 ppg) and is just 2-7 ATS in the past 9 meetings. Minnesota is just 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games overall but is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games as a double digit road underdog. Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its past 5 as a home favorite. The favorite is just 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

Penn State Nittany Lions (5-3, 3-5 ATS) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (6-2, 2-6 ATS)

PSU: Last week: Defeated Michigan, 41-31
NU: Last week: Defeated Indiana, 20-17

Legendary coach Joe Paterno aims for his 400th victory when the Wildcats visit Happy Valley on Saturday. Northwestern is 4-0 on the road this season, but has only won by an average margin of 5.7 ppg and has covered in just one of those wins. Penn State has won three straight meetings with NU and 10 of the last 13 by an average margin score of 31-17. They opened as a 7 point home favorite.

Penn State’s offense finally showed some life last week against Michigan. After averaging just 16 points per game in the previous six, the Nittany Lions torched the Wolverines for 435 total yards and 41 points. In his first start under center, Matt McGloin threw for 250 yards and a score with no turnovers. RB Royster ran for 150 yards and two touchdowns and helped this offense control the ball for +15 more minutes than Michigan.

Both teams boast above average defenses. Penn State is surrendering just 343 yards per game and 20 points per game despite playing a few strong offenses (Alabama, Iowa, Temple, and Michigan). Northwestern is allowing 371 and 20.2 points per game.

In last year’s meeting, Northwestern held a 13-10 halftime lead. PSU scored 24 unanswered points and outgained the Wildcats by 145 yards in the 2nd half on the way to their 34-13 victory. Northwestern is 9-0 ATS in its last 9 games as a road underdog but 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games overall. Penn State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a home favorite but they are 4-1 ATS in its last five home games against Northwestern.

Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1, 7-2 ATS) - Idle

OSU: Last week: Defeated Minnesota, 52-10

After their road loss to Wisconsin on October 16, the Buckeyes have responded with back to back wins by a combined score of 101-10. They racked up 52 points and 507 yards in their most recent game at Minnesota. They still boast the nation’s #2 total defense and #4 scoring defense. Their linebacking corps has been decimated by injuries and they’ll use the bye week to heal up and get new guys acclimated. Next up is a home date with Penn State on November 13th.

Vegas Money Moves - Week 10
By Micah Roberts

On Monday, many sports books opened Oregon -28 ½ for their home game against Washington. At about 12 pm (PDT), an alert came out saying that Jake Locker was out for the Huskies. Most books took the game off the board and wanted to re-evaluate the value of Locker and how it related to the spread. Other books made subtle adjustments of 3 or 4 points and re-opened the game, likely prematurely. In the NFL, a quarterback rating for a superstar player can be worth sometimes up to 5 points, but in College, it can a should be higher, especially for a player that is the entire team. In Washington’s case, their rating without Locker playing drops nearly 8 points. Some books who adjusted too little found out the hard way as bets pushed the number up, while the others that waited to offer a sound line of -35 to -36. It doesn’t mean that Oregon will cover easily, but it is much likelier that Washington will have a more difficult time scoring with back-up Keith Price starting.

In a similar situation. Miami opened 10 ½-point Favorites for their home game against Maryland. The difference in this game from the Washington game was that the sports books knew Miami quarterback Jacory Harris would be out. The bettors still saw value in taking the points with Maryland because of seeing backup Stephen Morris throw two picks and lose at Virginia last week, despite a valiant effort late in the fourth quarter. By Thursday afternoon, the game moved to Miami -7 ½.

Syracuse is on a roll right now having bumped their record to 6-2 and they face an injury riddled Louisville team this week. Louisville’s star running-back Bilal Powell was known to be out and was put into the opening number of Syracuse as 6-point favorites. But then Thursday night it was announced that Louisville’s starting quarterback, Adam Froman, would be out as well. The sports books all took the game off the board with most readjusting to -7, a one point move. Froman isn’t in the same caliber of Locker or Harris, but he has been the starting quarterback all season and fared very well for the Cardinals. His value to the team, combined with Powell being out, might warrant a larger adjustment.

The big game of the week between No. 3 TCU and No. 5 Utah will be a game that most in the nation will not be able to see. The television package the Mountain West conference has is brutal and who could blame BYU for skating for richer pastures on their own. It’s pretty sad when an individual school like BYU -- not exactly a powerhouse in collegiate athletics -- can go out and do better on their own than the entire conference can. A conference like the MWC that has demanded respectability from everyone can’t even get it within television, let alone an automatic BCS bowl birth.

Between DirecTV and Cable, many will be able to see the game on CBS-College, but not all cable outlets have the network. So while top-5 teams are battling it out in Salt Lake City, the entire nation will be watching Alabama at LSU on the real CBS which is sure to be seen, and influence all the votes that get fed into the BCS computer much more than the blip registered from a three digit TV channel.

TCU opened as 6-point road favorites and was bet against early taking the game to -4. Alabama, by the way, is steady at -6 ½ all week.

Here’s a look at some of the other College Moves of the Week:
Louisiana Tech opened as 2 ½-point home underdogs against Fresno State, but are now favored by 2.
UTEP opened as 8-point home underdogs against SMU and has been bet down to +6 ½.
UAB opened as 9-point home favorites against Marshall and have been bet to -10 ½.
Washington State opened as 15 ½-point home underdogs to Cal and are currently +14.
New Mexico opened as 11-point home underdogs to Wyoming and are now +9.
Mississippi opened 26 ½-point favorites to UL-Lafayette and are now -28.
North Texas opened as 13-point home underdogs to Troy and are now +11 ½.

Tips and Trends

Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers

CRIMSON TIDE: (-6.5, O/U 44.5) Alabama is coming off a very productive bye week. The Crimson Tide saw multiple undefeated teams ranked ahead of them lose last week. If Alabama can win their remaining games against a difficult schedule, they are likely to play for the opportunity of defending their BCS title. Alabama is 7-1 SU and 4-1 SU in SEC play this season. Alabama is 2-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. The Tide are 1-2 ATS this season as a single digit favorite. Alabama has a well balanced offense, ranking in the top 40 both through the air and on the ground. QB Greg McElroy leads an offense that is averaging 34.3 PPG this year, 24th best in the nation. McElroy has thrown for 1,781 YDS this season, including 11 TD's against 3 INT's. RB's Trent Richardson and Heisman Trophy winning Mark Ingram have combined for more than 1,100 YDS rushing and 13 TD's this season. Defensively, the Crimson Tide are simply brilliant. Alabama has the 2nd best scoring defense in the country, allowing just 12.5 PPG this year. The Crimson Tide are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win. Alabama is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in November. The Crimson Tide are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Alabama is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Crimson Tide are 8-3 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
Under is 14-6-1 last 21 conference games.

Key Injuries - RB Eddie Lacy (undisclosed) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

TIGERS: LSU is coming off their 1st loss of the season, a 17-24 SU loss at Auburn. Losing on the road to the undefeated Tigers is nothing to be ashamed of, and LSU knows they are still in the BCS conversation. LSU is 7-1 SU and 4-1 SU in SEC play this season. While they are 7-1 SU, the Tigers are only 3-5 ATS this season. Coach Miles is an impressive 14-1i following a SU loss. LSU has revenge on their minds, as they've lost the past 2 seasons to Alabama in hard fought defensive struggles. The Tigers haven't allowed more than 14 PTS to be scored on them at home this season. For the entire year the Tigers are only allowing 15.6 PPG, 10th best in the nation. While LSU has one of the very worst passing offenses in the nation, their rushing attack is quite solid. RB Stevan Ridley has rushed for 723 YDS and 6 TD's this season. The Tigers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. LSU is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games played in November. LSU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Tigers are 0-4 ATS last 4 games as a home underdog.
Under is 11-1 last 12 home games.

Key Injuries - DE Sam Montgomery (knee) is out.

Projected Score: 13

TCU Horned Frogs at Utah Utes

HORNED FROGS: (-5, O/U 51.5) TCU is ranked 3rd in the country thanks to a perfect 9-0 SU record. With a road win today, the Horned Frogs will be one step closer towards their aspiration of playing for the BCS championship. TCU is 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road this year. Today will mark the 1st time this season that TCU will be playing consecutive road games in a regular week. Senior QB Andy Dalton has been one of the most efficient QB's in the country for the past few seasons, with this year being no different. Dalton has thrown for nearly 1,900 YDS this year, along with 16 TD's against 5 INT's. Dalton is the leader of an offense that is averaging 40 PPG this year, 9th best in the nation. Only 2 opponents have scored more than 10 PTS against TCU, including 5 current opponents to 7 PTS or fewer. For the season, the Horned Frogs are allowing a nation low 8.7 PPG. The Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in November. TCU is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. The Horned Frogs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Horned Frogs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win.

Horned Frogs are 23-9-1 ATS last 33 conference games.
Under is 7-0 last 7 games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 points.

Key Injuries - NT Kelly Griffin (ankle) is out.

Projected Score: 23

UTES: Utah has their dream scenario, as they face a fellow undefeated team ranked in the Top 10 in the nation. Utah and TCU will make Mountain West Conference history this afternoon, as two teams from the MWC will meet while ranked in the Top 10. The winner of this game has a legitimate shot to play for the BCS National Championship. Utah is a perfect 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS this season, with their first ATS loss last week against the Air Force. The Utes lost 28-55 SU last year, so revenge is at the forefront of this game. The Utes have a very balanced offense, ranking in the top 35 both passing and rushing the football. RB's Eddie Wide and Matt Asiata have combined for nearly 1,000 YDS rushing, including 15 TD's. Utah is averaging 45.3 PPG this season, 3rd best in the nation. 4 times this season the Utes defense has held their opponents to 10 PTS or fewer. Overall, Utah is only allowing 14.1 PPG, 5th best in the country. The Utes are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games overall. Utah is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Utes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games. Utah is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Utes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

Utes are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a home underdog.
Over is 4-1 last 5 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - LB Chad Manis (ankle) is probable.

Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)