Beware of Let Downs - Week 10
By Judd Hall
The Hokies losing the final seconds to North Carolina on Oct. 29 was just a precursor to what we were going to see as Week 9 of the college football season played out. Iowa had to make another fourth quarter comeback to upend the Hoosiers. Then we saw the Trojans publicly relinquish their stranglehold on the Pac-10 with a loss at Oregon.
Those three contests are going to help us find a few teams that will no doubt be in a funk from bad outings.
Hokie Hokie low…
Virginia Tech appeared to be at least taking its chances in overtime with the Tar Heels when they got the ball with just three minutes left in regulation of a 17-17 ballgame. But Ryan Williams’ fumble on the Hokies’ 30-yard line took the wind out of their sails as they fell 20-17 to North Carolina.
Now the Hokies are hoping to bounce back this week against East Carolina in another Thursday battle. The sportsbooks aren’t really worried about Frank Beamer’s crew as they’ve made them nine-point road favorites.
What keeps me from looking at Virginia Tech as a reasonable play here is the last two drives the Tar Heels had to win the game. The Hokies allowed UNC to march 78 yards down the field to tie the score at 17, stopping just two of the five third-down conversions. Then the Heels drove all the way down to Virginia Tech’s four-yard line for the game winner.
That kind of defensive play will not help out too much when they play the Pirates, who are actually averaging more yards per game on the ground (149.4) than what the Tar Heels have this year (135.4).
Something else to consider is that ECU has covered the spread the last two times as a nine-point and 27½-point underdog. Also, the Pirates have gone 3-1 run against the spread in their last four matches. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, is on a 1-3 ATS skid.
It’s hard to be a Hoosier…
The Hoosiers looked like they were going to pull off a major upset last week when they took a 24-14 lead into the fourth quarter against Iowa. Yet Indiana found a way to let the Hawkeyes tally four touchdowns in the final quarter to walk away with a 42-24 win as 17 ½-point home faves.
Indiana finds itself in the same spot as they did after falling to the Wolverines in Ann Arbor back in late September – double-digit pup to a Big Ten foe. This time the Hoosiers are 11-point home ‘dogs to Wisconsin.
There is reason to see the Badgers covering that spread with ease in Bloomington. Scott Tolzien is one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the country with a 130.6 rating. He’s going to be facing off against an Indiana pass defense that ranks 107th nationally, allowing 256.7 YPG through the air.
Wisky has fared well at the betting shops in this series recently, covering the number in the last three meetings and five of the previous eight.
“V” is for “Vanished…”
It took seven years, but Pete Carroll’s grip on the Pac-10 has finally loosened after Southern California’s 47-20 defeat in Eugene to the Ducks. The Trojans allowed 613 yards to Oregon in what was easily the worst loss of Carroll’s tenure in Los Angeles.
The Trojans may feel shell shocked after last Saturday’s result, but the sportsbooks are still listing them as 14-point home favorites against Arizona State.
This might be sound like a stretch given how the Sun Devils have lost two straight games in what has been a mediocre season for Dennis Erickson’s program. However, ASU is coming off of a tough 23-21 loss to the Golden Bears last Saturday.
Arizona State didn’t have much success on the ground last week with just 82 yards rushing against the Golden Bears. They did, however, put up 247 yards via the air. That might prove fruitful for the Devs here since USC gave up 222 passing yards to the Ducks. Not big numbers, but this defense was exposed as not being as good as we thought after getting taken down by a real offense.
I’ll be the first to say that the Sun Devils aren’t the best attacking unit out there, but they do average 354.7 YPG this season. Plus, they’ve gone 3-1 ATS over the last four games with Southern Cal. And if that isn’t enough, the Men of Troy are 3-3 SU, but 1-5 ATS when listed as home favorites following a SU loss as a road faves.
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Possible Traps - Week 10
By The Prez
Vanderbilt (+35) at Florida
The Gators are already in the SEC title game and this is their last conference home game. It comes after the big rivalry game with Georgia. And the lone remaining test on UF’s schedule comes next week at South Carolina. In addition, star linebacker Brandon Spikes, as you probably know by now, is suspended for (only) the first half of this game after eye-raking a Georgia player intentionally last weekend.
And how can UF not be overconfident here? It has won 18 in a row in the series, while the Commodores have lost five games in a row this season. Still, they did find some offense for once last week against a good Georgia Tech team. Senior Mackenzi Adams starts at QB for Vandy He was 12-of-22 for 152 yards Saturday in relief of Larry Smith, who came up injured at the end of a 35-yard run.
San Diego State (+24.5) vs. Texas Christian
There is only one game left on TCU’s schedule keeping the Frogs from their first BCS bowl, and that’s next week against Utah. So, yes, playing in serene San Diego might have TCU’s players a little unfocused on the task at hand. SDSU is not a terrible team and is 3-1 at home, with the lone loss to BYU. The last two times TCU played at SDSU, it was lucky to win: The Frogs were tied at 13 going into the fourth quarter in 2005 and won 23-20 and in 2007 they were down 17-0 in the first quarter before making a big rally for a 45-33 victory.
Central Florida (+36.5) at Texas
The Horns come off a three-week stretch of Missouri, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and now a directional school comes calling. But I would caution you that Central Florida is a solid team – its only losses coming to Southern Miss, East Carolina and Miami, all expected bowl teams. Two seasons ago in Orlando, the Horns only won by three points. The Golden Knights boast the nation's seventh-best rush defense at 87.8 yards per game and are sixth with 3.3 sacks a contest. They stay within 28.
Washington State (+32.5) at Arizona
The Cougars were my only winner last week, so I am sticking with them. This sets up nicely as an Arizona letdown. The Wildcats have their highest ranking in nine years and will be playing their third straight home game but then hit the gauntlet of their schedule after this week: at Cal, vs. Oregon, at Arizona State, at USC. The Cougars have lost three in a row in the series and fell by 31 at home last year. If Wazzu can just stay close in the first quarter, they will cover here: The Cougars have been outscored in that quarter 121-3.
Games to Watch - Week 10
By Chris David
Ohio State at Penn State
Skinny
The Big 10 heats up the gridiron this weekend when No. 15 Ohio State (7-2 straight up, 7-2 against the spread) meets No. 11 Penn State (8-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) in what looks like a battle for second place in the conference. The Buckeyes and Nittany Lions both trail Iowa by one game in the standings and the Hawkeyes own the head-to-head tiebreaker over PSU. If Ohio State earns a win in this game, then it could win the Big Ten by beating Iowa next Saturday at home and then at Michigan. Penn State needs to win its final three home games and hope Iowa trips up twice in its final three games. Back to this week's matchup, on paper it looks like another classic slugfest. Penn State leads the conference in scoring defense (9.3 PPG) and total defense (254 YPG). Close behind is Ohio State (11.7 PPG, 260 YPG), who is ranked second in both categories. Offensively, Penn State relies on QB Daryll Clark (23 TDs) and Ohio State has put enormous pressure on sophomore Terrelle Pryor (19 TDs) behind center. Both have shown flashes of brilliance yet they're both suspect to making crucial mistakes too, which has been the key in recent meetings. Last year, Pryor fumbled in the fourth quarter which set up Penn State's game-winning touchdown in a 13-6 win in Columbus. A lot of headlines have been circulating around Pryor this weekend since he chose Ohio State over PSU and Michigan, which should add extra fuel to the fans at Beaver Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
Gambling Notes
The last four meetings between the two schools have been split, with each team stealing at least one victory on the road during this span. Penn State has won both of its victories by seven points, while Ohio State has posted 22 and 20-point wins. Even though Jim Tressel has taken heat over the past couple seasons, deservingly so, gamblers have to be pleased with his report card (7-2 ATS) this year. And they're covering healthy numbers too. Penn State started the year with four straight losses against the spread but it has rebounded with four straight covers, including three on the road. We mention the road stat because Joe Paterno and the Lions are 5-1 SU and 1-4 ATS at home this year, with the lone loss coming to Iowa (21-10) on Sept. 26. Ohio State has posted a 2-1 both SU and ATS mark on the road, which includes the 26-18 setback to Purdue on Oct. 17. Great defenses usually post low numbers which in turn helps 'under' players and that's been the case with this pair. Ohio State (7-2) and Penn State (6-2) have both been serious 'under' teams this season. Three of the last four encounters between the two have seen the 'under' cash tickets. The total for this week opened at 39 1/2. One key injury that could make a difference in this tight contest is Ohio State kicker Aaron Pettrey (knee), who was lost for the season. According to extended forecasts, this game will be played in the fifties and with clear skies too.
LSU at Alabama
Skinny
All eyes will be on Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa this weekend when ninth-ranked LSU (7-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) faces third-ranked Alabama (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS). Not only is the SEC West on the line, but possible national title implications as well. For the past two years, this game has been dubbed the "Saban Bowl" and both contests were thrillers. In Nick Saban's first year at Alabama, LSU captured a 41-34 in Baton Rouge against its former coach by scoring two touchdowns in the final three minutes. Last year, Saban avenged that loss by nipping the Tigers 27-21 at home in overtime. Most experts don't believe we'll see a combined 75 or 48 points in this week's showdown, because both Alabama (11.4 PPG) and LSU (12.1 PPG) own tremendous defensive units. After losing their only game of the season to Florida (13-3) on Oct. 10, the Tigers have bounced back with dominating wins over Auburn (31-10) and Tulane (45-0). What's even better for LSU is that the offense has found a nice balance behind QB Jordan Jefferson (12 TDs) and RB Charles Scott. Plus, receivers Terrance Tolliver (38 catches, 501 yards) and Brandon LaFell (8 TDs) are a tough match for any secondary. The Alabama offense doesn't have the same amount of playmakers but it does have a workhorse in RB Mark Ingram (1,004 yards, 8 TDs). What's amazing about Ingram is that he's posting such impressive numbers without a sound passing game (192 YPG) and Alabama's kicker Leigh Tiffin (10.5 PPG) leads the SEC in scoring, which is not something to boast about.
Gambling Notes
Is an upset likely to happen here? It certainly wouldn't be a surprise, considering three of the last four meetings between the two teams have watched the visitor leave with their arms up. Looking at the numbers closer, gamblers can't ignore the fact that Alabama struggled and failed to cover double-digit numbers against South Carolina (20-6) and Tennessee (12-10). The victory over the Volunteers could be dubbed "lucky" but the Tide played to lose at the end and let them back into the game. Prior to that pair of ATS setbacks, the team was 5-1 ATS and more importantly, 2-0 ATS as single-digit favorites. LSU is on a little bit of a roll but it's been shaky on the road. Les Miles failed to cover in a win against Washington (31-23) in Week 1, plus they almost lost at Mississippi State (30-26). It should be noted that they were double-digit favorites in this those games and they did win outright at Georgia (20-13) on Oct. 3 in the only spot as a 'dog. The 'over/under' has been hovering at 38 points and LSU has watched the 'under' go 6-2 this year. The 'over' has cashed in the last three head-to-head battles.
Other Games to Watch
Oregon at Stanford
The Ducks have been on a serious roll and last week's 47-20 blowout win over USC was a statement win. Will Oregon get caught in a letdown spot against an underrated Stanford team on the road? Well, the Ducks have won seven in a row against the Cardinal and have covered six of those games to boot. Jim Harbaugh's team has gone 4-0 both SU and ATS at home this year.
Duke at North Carolina
The "Battle for Tobacco Road" usually doesn't get noticed until basketball season but the winner of this week's Duke-UNC will become bowl eligible. The Blue Devils haven't been to a bowl game since 1994 but head coach David Cutcliffe has the school pointed in the right direction. UNC has won 18 of the last 19 but the last four have been decided by 8, 6, 1 and 3. Catching 10 looks doable, especially with QB Thaddeus Lewis running the Duke ship.
Houston at Tulsa
Houston is four wins away from finishing the regular season with an 11-1 record. The Cougars last test could be this weekend against a Tulsa team that has dropped three in a row. Last year, Case Keenum and company dropped a 70-spot on the Golden Hurricane in a blowout victory. Will the roles get reversed this season? The number on this game looks real tricky.
Florida State at Clemson
A lot would have to happen but Florida State still has a chance to reach the ACC Championship. The Seminoles first need to beat Clemson this weekend, which isn't easy since they've dropped three of the last four to the Tigers. Dabo Sweeny's team controls its own destiny for a berth to the title game and it should be noted that Clemson's three losses came by a combined 10 points. And, two of the setbacks came to TCU and Georgia Tech, both highly ranked teams. The Tigers are laying more than eight points for this one, which is the highest number in the last five.
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Public Enemies - Week 10
By Kevin Rogers
As we turn the page in college football to another exciting week of conference action, several teams that weren't expected to do much are turning heads across the country. This week, we'll take a look at four conference matchups, including one that gets more notice on the hardwood than the gridiron.
Duke at North Carolina (-10, 44)
The Blue Devils and Tar Heels usually make headlines when they get together in basketball, but this football contest is actually a big one for Duke. The Blue Devils still have an outside shot at making the ACC Championship, but that involves running the table. The Heels, meanwhile, finally won their first conference game last Thursday by upsetting Virginia Tech.
Duke has lost only one conference game this season, while beating Maryland, N.C. State, and Virginia. The Blue Devils are pointspread gold as well, compiling a 4-1-1 ATS mark, while going 'over' in five of seven games.
VI capper Joe Nelson says the Blue Devils have benefited from a favorable schedule so far, "Duke has played the easiest schedule of any ACC team, but the passing offense is posting huge numbers, averaging 325 yards per game in the air. North Carolina has one the best statistical defenses in the nation, allowing just 265 yards and 16 points per game."
However, with UNC coming off the upset of Virginia Tech, Nelson feels a letdown may be in order, "The Tar Heels have had overwhelming success in this series, but the last four meetings have all been very tightly contested and it makes sense to back the much more explosive underdog against a team coming off a huge primetime win."
Wisconsin (-10½, 54½) at Indiana
The Hoosiers were on the verge of pulling off a major upset last week at Iowa, only to give away a 24-14 lead in a 42-24 loss. The Hawkeyes remain unbeaten overall and stay atop the Big 10, while the Hoosiers dropped their third road conference game. IU held a fourth-quarter lead in each of those losses at Iowa, Michigan, and Northwestern.
The Badgers are coming off a 37-0 blanking of Purdue last week, as Wisconsin hits the road for only the third time this season. The Badgers have beaten the Hoosiers each of the last four times out, while covering the last three meetings.
Nelson says the Hoosiers just may run out of gas after some disappointing losses, "In four of five Big Ten games, Indiana has played very competitively even if they have just one conference win and this is a team that has exceeded expectations. Wisconsin has had no trouble with Indiana the last four years and the outstanding rushing attack for the Badgers should have a lot of success in this match-up. Through a tougher schedule Wisconsin has been a very good defensive team and unless the Badgers have turnovers they should be in position to deliver a solid road win."
Oregon (-7, 58) at Stanford
The Ducks have slowly crept into National Championship consideration after blowing out USC last week in Eugene to take a commanding lead inside the Pac-10. Stanford, meanwhile, owns a 4-2 conference record, and a perfect 4-0 mark at home.
Oregon continues to be one of the best teams to back, as the Ducks have covered six straight, while scoring at least 30 points or more in six of the last seven games. Interestingly, the Cardinal has been an underdog just twice this season, losing both times at Arizona and Wake Forest.
The Ducks have won the last seven meetings, while each of the last four matchups have finished 'over' the total. Nelson says that the extra preparation will benefit Jim Harbaugh's club, "Stanford has covered in each of the last ten home games and the Cardinal has had two weeks to focus on this game, while Oregon faces a serious letdown spot. This was a wild game last season as Stanford took a one-point lead with just over two minutes to go, but Oregon rallied for the win. Oregon had four fumbles in that game and managed to win, but it was the lone missed cover in the past seven meetings between these teams for the Ducks."
The Cardinal is led by RB Toby Gerhart and his 13 touchdowns, as Nelson notes that this game will be won on the ground, "Stanford is a threat in this match-up as they rush for 205 yards per game. Oregon has been even more productive on the ground, but a home underdog that can run the ball well makes for a favorable play-on scenario. Oregon may emerge as the elite team they currently rank as, but this will be a serious test."
Washington at UCLA (-5½)
A pair of 3-5 clubs hook up at the Rose Bowl as both teams have struggled following promising starts. The Huskies upset USC back in the third week of the season, but have dropped four of five. The only victory for Washington in this stretch could be considered a fortunate one, as the Huskies returned a controversial interception for a touchdown in a win over Arizona.
The Bruins, meanwhile, began the season 3-0, but have been on the losing end of five in a row. It's been even worse UCLA backers, as the Bruins are 1-4 ATS in this stretch, while losing each game by at least a touchdown.
UCLA has owned this series over the last decade, going 8-2 SU/ATS the previous ten meetings. Nelson says that the Huskies have been tested plenty this season despite owning a losing record, "Washington has played the top-rated schedule in the nation although UCLA is not far behind as both teams are likely better than the records indicate in a very tough Pac-10. UCLA has had great recent success in this series, but Washington will be rested off a bye week and the Huskies have been a far superior offensive team."
Rick Neuheisel's team hasn't gotten its offense going, but Nelson believes the Bruins' defense has to step up, "UCLA is regarded as a great defensive team, but the numbers have slipped considerably in recent weeks. UCLA has allowed at least 24 points in every Pac-10 game and the Bruins have been held under 20 in four of those games. Look for a bounce back from the Huskies in a key spot as UCLA has not proven capable of scoring enough points to win as a favorite against a team that has been dangerous."
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LSU at Alabama
By Brian Edwards
There’s no debate about where the most important game of Week 10 will take place in college football. That would be in Tuscaloosa at Bryant-Denny Stadium, where Alabama (8-0 straight up, 5-3 against the spread) will play host to its bitter SEC West rival, LSU.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Crimson Tide as a 10-point favorite with a total of 37 ½. On Monday, most books were using nine, but the number was down to 7 ½ by Thursday. The total was in the 38-39 range, while bettors had a chance to take the Tigers to win outright for a plus-240 payout (risk $100 to win $240).
Nick Saban’s team is coming off a bye week after winning eight consecutive games, including its first five in SEC play against Arkansas (35-7), Kentucky (38-20), Ole Miss (22-3), South Carolina (20-6) and Tennessee (12-10).
The Vols nearly pulled a stunner two weeks ago, but they had a potential game-winning field goal blocked by Alabama All-American defensive tackle Terrance Cody as time expired. Cody also blocked a field goal attempt in the final seconds of the first half.
After the loss, UT coach Lane Kiffin cried like a chump about the officiating instead of taking ownership for a two-minute offense that could’ve easily put the Vols’ kicker in better position if not for a complete lack of urgency at the conclusion of both halves. Nevertheless, UT took the cash as a 14 ½-point road underdog.
Leigh Tiffin’s four field goals is all the offense ‘Bama could muster against Monte Kiffin’s defensive unit. Greg McElroy connected on 18-of-29 throws for 120 yards without a touchdown or interception. Mark Ingram ran for 99 yards on 18 carries.
Since its lone loss of the season to Florida by a 13-3 count in Baton Rouge, LSU (7-1 SU, 4-2-2 ATS) has responded with back-to-back victories. After an open date following the loss to UF, the Bayou Bengals put it on Auburn 31-10 as 7 ½-point home favorites. Jordan Jefferson was the catalyst, completing 20-of-30 passes for 236 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Jefferson also had a 15-yard touchdown run.
Les Miles’ bunch dropped Tulane 42-0 last week, covering the ‘chalky’ 36 ½-point number at home. Charles Scott led the way with 112 rushing yards and a pair of TDs on just 18 carries. Jefferson threw for 163 yards and two TDs to Brandon LaFell.
Speaking of LaFell, he leads the SEC in touchdown receptions with eight. LaFell, a first-team All-SEC selection in 2008, has 37 catches for 478 yards. Terrance Toliver has a team-high 38 receptions for 501 yards and three TD grabs.
I had my doubts about Jefferson going into the year, but he has answered the call for the most part. He struggled against Florida, but what quarterback hasn’t? Jefferson’s season numbers are solid: 63.7% completion rate for 1,421 passing yards with an 11/4 touchdown-interception ratio.
McElroy exceeded expectations early in his first season as Alabama’s starting quarterback following a three-year stretch of John Parker Wilson under center. But the junior signal caller has seemingly regressed in the last three games against the best defenses he’s seen all year (Ole Miss, South Carolina and Tennessee).
Still, McElroy owns a 9/3 touchdown-interception ratio for the year. His favorite target is Julio Jones, but some say that’s the problem. Jones is often double-covered and McElroy has had a tendency to try and force the ball his way. Jones has not had the type of year most expected from him, as he has just 20 receptions for 229 yards and one touchdown.
Ingram has stolen the show and could become the first player in Alabama school history to win the Heisman Trophy. And no, that wasn’t a misprint. Nobody for the Crimson Tide has brought that hardware from the Big Apple to T-town. Not Joe Namath, not Kenny Stabler, not Shaun Alexander, nor Bobby Humphrey.
Ingram has rushed for an SEC-leading 125.5 yards per game. He’s averaging 6.6 yards per carry and has eight rushing touchdowns. Ingram has been so good that freshman sensation Trent Richardson (5.1 YPC) and bruising Roy Upchurch have become afterthoughts in the Tide’s attack.
When these teams met last season, every member of the LSU football program deserved to win. Miles and his staff did everything in their power to come out on top. So did every player except for one – QB Jarrett Lee. In fairness to Lee, the blame should actually fall on Ryan Perrilloux, who was supposed to be the starting QB in 2008.
But Perrilloux’s endless mistakes off the field resulted in his dismissal from the team, leaving Lee as the starter far before he was ready to lead a talented squad hoping to repeat as national champs. And the Tigers couldn’t overcome Lee’s freshman mistakes against the Tide.
Although LSU dominated most of the game, Lee’s interceptions were too much to overcome. His last pick in overtime sealed the deal for the Tide, who escaped with a 27-21 victory in the extra session. Gamblers backing ‘Bama pulled out a miraculous cover laying three points.
When these teams last met at Bryant-Denny in 2007, the reverse was true. ‘Bama controlled much of the game and had a seven-point lead late in the fourth quarter. On a fourth-and-long play, Matt Flynn found Early Doucet for the first down and Doucet did the rest, breaking a pair of tackles before sprinting into the end zone to tie the game at 34-34.
Several plays later, Wilson coughed up a fumble. Jacob Hester would make the Tide pay moments later, bullying his way to paydirt to give LSU a 41-34 win and keep their national-championship hopes alive. On that occasion, bettors backing LSU garnered a fortunate push with the Tigers listed as seven-point favorites.
In 2009, Alabama is second in the SEC in scoring defense, giving up 11.4 points per game. LSU is third in the SEC in scoring defense, surrendering only 12.1 PPG.
The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight LSU games and is 6-2 overall for the Tigers. However, they have watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 in their three road assignments. The ‘under’ is 4-3 overall for ‘Bama, 3-1 in its home contests. Regardless of the venue, the Tide has seen three consecutive ‘unders’ hit.
CBS will provide television coverage at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Don't be surprised if special teams play a huge role in this game. 'Bama's Javier Arenas is a dynamic punt returner, leading the SEC in that category with a 16.8 yards-per-return average. He had a 61-yard punt return for a TD in the '07 game against LSU. For the Tigers, Trindon Holliday is a burner who has shredded the SEC record books in track and field during the spring throughout his stay in Baton Rouge. Holliday is currently third in the SEC in punt return average (14.6). Also, we mentioned Tiffin's four FGs to beat UT. He's up for the Lou Groza Award for the nation's premier place kicker.
--During Miles' five-year tenure at LSU, his team is 2-3 ATS as a road underdog. The Tigers went to Athens earlier this year in their only spot as road 'dogs, capturing a 20-13 win as three-point puppies. Meanwhile, 'Bama is 6-10 ATS as a road 'chalk' on Saban's watch. The Tide is 2-3 versus the number in such situations this year, including back-to-back non-covers against South Carolina (20-6 win as an 18-point favorite) and UT.
--Vanderbilt sophomore quarterback Larry Smith is “out” for the rest of the season with a partially torn hamstring sustained in last week’s 56-31 home loss to Ga. Tech. Mackenzie Adams, a fifth-year senior, will make his 10th career start and his first of the season Saturday at Florida. Adams came off the bench to complete 12-of-22 passes for 152 yards against the Yellow Jackets. LVSC opened UF as a 35-point home favorite against the Commodores. The number was 32 ½ at a few books Monday, but the Gators were back up to 35 as of Thursday afternoon. Bobby Johnson’s team is 1-2-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog in 2009, while UF is 3-3-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
-- Florida has won 18 in a row against Vandy, including last year’s 42-14 win as a 23 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ The ‘Dores haven’t won in Gainesville since 1945.
--Florida All-American LB Brandon Spikes is "out" vs. Vandy. On Monday, Urban Meyer announced that Spikes would be suspended for the first half after video surfaced from last week's win over Georgia showing Spikes attempting to gouge the eyes of UGA running back Washaun Ealey. After Meyer came under fire for not being more stern, Spikes himself announced Wednesday that he won't play at all because he didn't want to be a distraction to his teammates. This noble move, coupled with Spikes' decision to stay in school (and perhaps even the nasty streak he has that was evident in this whole episode), should only help his stock in the upcoming NFL Draft. (At least it would if I were a GM. And remember, many GMs wouldn't touch Percy Harvin last year, while I was amused by the fact that this year's favorite to win Rookie of the Year honors didn't go in the top 10 selections.)
--Is South Carolina poised for a third consecutive late-season swoon? Maybe. Without a doubt, the Gamecocks are going to have a hard time emerging from Fayetteville with a victory this Saturday. That’s because they will be without three important starters, including junior defensive end Cliff Matthews and junior safety Chris Culliver. Matthews is tied for fourth in the SEC in sacks with five, and he’s second in the SEC in fumble recoveries with three. Also, junior OT Jarriel King is “out” after sustaining a concussion in last week’s 31-13 loss at Tennessee. The final score is a tad misleading, however, because the ‘Cocks out-yarded UT 365-341. The Vols got a pair of gift fumbles that set up first-quarter TDs on USC’s first two drives.
--While South Carolina is nursing injuries galore, Arkansas second-year head coach Bobby Petrino told HawgSports.com that his team “is pretty healthy, we're about as healthy as we've been all year long.” The Hogs spanked Eastern Michigan 63-27 last week. Most books have Arkansas favored by seven vs. USC.
--Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett has an 18/3 touchdown-interception ratio, while Stephen Garcia has a 12/5 TD-INT ratio.
vegasinsider.com.
College Football Top 25 Cheat Sheet: Week 10
By MATT SEVERANCE
Vanderbilt at No. 1 Florida (-35, 44.5)
The Commodores lost dual threat QB Larry Smith for the season with an injury suffered in last week’s loss to Georgia Tech, so in steps senior Mackenzi Adams for his 10th career start – Vandy is 2-7 in the previous nine.
Star LB Brandon Spikes was suspended for just a half in this one by Urban Meyer for Spikes’ eye gouge against Georgia, but Spikes then suspended himself for the entire game Wednesday night. Not like UF needs him: It has won 18 in a row in this series.
Central Florida at No. 2 Texas (-36.5, 46.5)
The Golden Knights did only lose by three points to the Horns two seasons ago in Orlando. They can’t afford to fall behind big here, and UCF has led at the half only once this year.
It’s a very rare non-conference November game for UT (originally was supposed to be Texas Tech), which might be due a letdown after three straight conference opponents. Hard to see UCF scoring much since Texas has held each Big 12 opponent to 14 or fewer points.
No. 7 LSU at No. 3 Alabama (-7.5, 40)
The Tigers have won four straight games over Alabama in Tuscaloosa. And their defense is playing well, having allowed only 36 points in its last four games.
The Tide clinch a spot in the SEC title game with a win and enter off a bye week. They have led at the half of the past seven games and are 25-1 when leading at halftime under Nick Saban.
No. 4 TCU at San Diego State (+24.5, 48)
TCU could get caught looking ahead to Utah next week. But the Frogs are 4-0 against SDSU all-time and have outscored their opponents 123-13 in the past three games.
SDSU nearly beat TCU in the Frogs’ last two visits and the Aztecs have just one loss at home (by 10 to BYU). Unfortunately, star WR Vincent Brown, a semifinalist for the Biletnikoff Award is out this week and likely the season.
No. 5 Boise State at Louisiana Tech (+21.5, 50; Friday)
Boise State loves national TV, having lost just once in the past two seasons (3-0 this season, 2-1 ATS). BSU has won seven in a row in this series, scoring at least 30 in all of them with an average margin of victory by about 26 points.
The Bulldogs have won 10 of their past 11 at home. But probably their two best offensive players, running back Daniel Porter and wide receiver Phillip Livas, are both game-time decisions with injuries.
Northwestern at No. 6 Iowa (-16.5, 44.5)
Northwestern has won the last two games in Kinnick Stadium and three of the last six. That includes a 22-17 win last season. But the Wildcats have dropped their past 35 against Top 5 teams (which Iowa is in the BCS).
The Hawkeyes seem to have their close calls at home and have covered only one of the past three games there. That one was last week against Indiana when Iowa was down 10 points entering the fourth before rallying big.
Connecticut at No. 7 Cincinnati (-16.5, 52)
The Huskies' four losses are by a combined 13 points, but they also lost starting QB Cody Endres for the season when he was hurt in last week’s loss to Rutgers.
The Bearcats lead the series 4-1 all-time but were pummeled 40-16 at UConn last year. Cincy, which may get QB Tony Pike back, has turned the ball over just four times, fewest in the nation. It is the only team in the country yet to lose a fumble.
No. 8 Oregon at Stanford (+6.5, 56)
Is Oregon due a letdown after a program-altering win against Southern Cal? Sometimes all that good publicity isn’t good for a team. The Ducks do have a seven-game winning streak against the Cardinal, their longest current streak against a Pac-10 opponent.
Stanford enters off a bye and played its best game of the season before the week off, a 33-14 home win over Arizona State. In fact, the Cardinal really haven’t been challenged at home this year.
No. 12 Ohio State at No. 10 Penn State (-3.5, 40)
Jim Tressel is 5-3 against Penn State but his Buckeyes lost 13-6 last year in Columbus. So while the home team has won 12 of 16 in this series since PSU joined the Big Ten, the visitor has won the past two.
PSU’s Daryll Clark looks like a Heisman candidate of late – during the Nittany Lions’ five-game winning streak, Clark has nine touchdown passes and has run for five scores with just one interception.
Wake Forest at No. 11 Georgia Tech (-16, 61.5)
The Deacons have lost their past three overall and are 0-3 on the road this year. And senior QB Riley Skinner, easily the team’s best player, is questionable for this one with a concussion. Skinner hasn’t missed a start since early in the 2007 season.
The Jackets have won six in a row and have covered in all of them. Over the last five games, Tech has averaged 487.0 yards of total offense (337.8 yards rushing) and 41.8 points.
No. 13 Southern Cal at Arizona State (+10, 45.5)
USC has won nine in a row in this series and is 27-0 in November under Pete Carroll. But how is the team’s psyche after suffering the worst loss in the Carroll era last week to Oregon?
ASU gets to see probably the worst defense it has seen USC have under Carroll, as that unit has surrendered an average of nearly 490 total yards and 37 points in each of the past three games. ASU is 3-27 this decade against ranked teams.
Syracuse at No. 14 Pittsburgh (-21.5, 49.5)
The best thing the Orange had going for them was star WR Mike Williams, but he quit the team Monday. He had 49 catches for 746 yards and six touchdowns. Syracuse is -7 in turnover margin in only three Big East games.
The Panthers have won six of the past seven meetings, including 34-24 at the Carrier Dome last year. RB Dion Lewis is fourth in the nation in rushing, but SU’s strength is run defense – sixth in the country.
No. 15 Houston at Tulsa (-1, 67.5)
Houston leads the series 3-1 since the two schools have been C-USA members. The past two years have been blowouts for the home team, including 70-30 Cougars in 2008.
The Golden Hurricane are 0-2 vs. ranked teams this year but nearly upset Boise State. In Tulsa's four wins this year, the Hurricane have scored 41.0 points per game and averaged 450.5 yards of total offense.
New Mexico at No. 16 Utah (-27, 46)
The Lobos could be the worst program in the country, having lost 12 straight games. The program is 2-19 all-time in road games against ranked teams. But UNM nearly upset the Utes last year and has won two of its past three trips to Utah.
It appears the Utes will turn to freshman Jordan Wynn as the starting QB after he rallied Utah past Wyoming last week. He replaced a struggling Terrance Cain during last week’s game. The official decision will likely be a game-time call.
Virginia at No. 17 Miami (-13.5, 45)
The Cavs’ offense is last in the ACC in scoring and yards per game, and the defense was gouged the past two games by Georgia Tech (on the ground) and Duke (through the air).
Miami leads the all-time series 4-2 and won 24-17 last year. UM’s struggling defense will again be without three key players: linebacker Sean Spence, defensive end Eric Moncour and safety Ray Ray Armstrong.
No. 18 Oklahoma State at Iowa State (+7.5, 51)
OSU, in its first game in Ames in four years, can take some positives from last week’s rout by Texas: The Cowboys outgained the Horns and didn’t allow a sack. OSU crushed ISU last year and has won five in a row against North Division teams.
Iowa State leads the Big 12 in rushing with an average of 200.33 yards per game and still has a shot at the North title. Starting QB Austen Arnaud is expected to return after missing the past two games with an injury.
Washington State at No. 19 Arizona (-33.5, 60)
Washington State has lost eight straight and 17 of 18 to Top 25 opponents. But the Cougars have covered their past three games this season and five of the past six.
The Wildcats have won three in a row against Wazzu. But they are unlikely to have starting RB Nic Grigsby (shoulder strain), who is averaging 7.5 yards on 71 carries. Arizona leads the Pac-10 in total offense.
No. 20 Oklahoma at Nebraska (+5, 41.5)
The Huskers’ defense has held four straight Big 12 opponents under 300 total yards of offense. That unit might have the best front four in the country. While Ndamukong Suh got all the double teams last week against Baylor, DT Jared Crick had 13 tackles and five sacks.
OU has won four in a row in this series, including a 62-28 blowout last year. Expect the Sooners to take an early lead, as they have not allowed a point in the first quarter in their last 10 games. Oklahoma has outscored its opponents 79-0 in the quarter in that span.
Navy at No. 21 Notre Dame (-11, 55.5)
QB Ricky Dobbs, who has barely played the past two weeks because of injury, will start Saturday. He’s a 50 percent passer but is second on the team in rushing yards and far and away the Navy leader in TDs with 19 (16 rush, three pass).
The Irish offense is whole again, as WR Michael Floyd, who was averaging 27.5 yards per catch with five touchdowns in just 10 quarters this season before getting hurt, returns from a broken collarbone.
No. 22 Wisconsin at Indiana (+10.5, 54.5)
Badger RB John Clay, who is 13th in the nation in rushing TDs and 20th in yards per game, should have a big day against a defense that allows more than 145 yards rushing per game and has given up 15 TDs on the ground. UW has won four in a row in this series.
The Hoosiers have been outscored 47-3 in the second half the last two weeks but have held leads in the fourth quarter of four of their last five Big Ten games. Indiana has forced at least three turnovers in three straight games.
Oregon State at No. 23 California (-7.5, 61.5)
The Beavers have won their past four trips to Berkeley and eight of 10 in the series overall. QB Sean Canfield has the third-best completion percentage in the country and hasn’t thrown a pick in 117 attempts.
Bears star Jahvid Best missed practice this week with a mild concussion but believes he will play. But starting tight end Anthony Miller, who caught a game-winning TD last week, is out.
No. 25 BYU at Wyoming (+13, 48)
BYU has won eight of the past nine in the series and hasn’t lost since 2003. The Cougars, who are unbeaten away from Provo this year, get top WR McKay Jacobson back this week. He has missed the last four games with a hamstring injury.
The Cowboys are 0-2 against ranked teams this year (Texas, Utah) but covered against both. Wyoming is plus-10 in turnover margin in its four home games so far.
Ohio St. at Penn St.
By Brian Edwards
When breaking down the Big Ten this past summer, most pundits pointed to this game as the likely decider of the conference champion. But as we move into November, Iowa owns sole possession of first place with a one-game lead over both the Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions.
The Hawkeyes also have the tiebreaker edge on PSU by virtue of their 21-10 win in Happy Valley back on Sep. 26. Therefore, Joe Paterno’s squad needs to win out and hope that Iowa loses two of its three remaining games. Meanwhile, Jim Tressel’s team is in the same position as PSU, but it can hand-deliver one of Iowa’s defeats when they collide at The Horseshoe next weekend.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Penn St. (8-1 straight up, 4-4 against the spread) as a four-point favorite with a total of 40. As of Friday night, most books had the Lions as 4 ½-point favorites with a 39-point tally. Gamblers can back the Buckeyes to win outright for a plus-170 return (risk $100 to win $170).
Since losing to Iowa, Penn St. hasn’t lost and has a big-time money maker for bettors. The Nittany Lions have won five straight, cashing tickets at a 4-0 clip since their victory over Eastern Illinois was a non-lined affair.
Paterno’s bunch went to Evanston last week and found itself trailing Northwestern 13-10 at halftime. Even at the start of the fourth quarter, the Lions were locked up in a 13-13 tie. But they erupted in the final stanza, scoring 21 unanswered points to capture a 34-13 victory and cover the number as 17 ½-point road ‘chalk.’
Junior RB Evan Royster ran for 115 yards and one touchdown on just 15 carries. His 69-yard TD scamper put the game on ice. Senior QB Daryll Clark connected on 22-of-31 passes for 274 yards and one touchdown. Clark also scored on a two-yard TD run.
For the season, Clark has completed 63.1 percent of his throws for 2,158 yards with an 18/7 touchdown-interception ratio. Derek Moye has emerged as Clark’s favorite target during his sophomore campaign. Moye has 39 receptions for 648 yards and five TDs.
Royster might be able to duplicate his numbers from 2008 (1,236 rushing yards, 12 TDs). With three games left, Royster has 859 rushing yards and five TDs. He averages 5.9 yards per carry.
Ohio State (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) hasn’t lost three games during the regular season since 2004, so a loss in this spot would represent an extremely mediocre season compared to recent years. A win, however, could right the ship and remedy (to some extent) the school’s disastrous results in “big games” over the last four years.
For our purposes, it hasn’t been a down year in Columbus. The Bucks’ only non-covers came in the opener, a 31-27 win over Navy as double-digit ‘chalk,’ and a 26-18 loss at Purdue on Oct. 17.
We should also mention that Tressel’s troops have covered the number in each of their last two “big games.” I’m talking about last year’s Fiesta Bowl loss to Texas by a 24-21 count when OSU was catching 8 ½ points, in addition to an 18-15 home loss to USC as a seven-point underdog earlier this year.
This is only the Bucks’ third true road game of the year. They were beaten at Purdue as 14-point favorites, but they took the cash in a 33-14 win at Indiana as 18-point road favorites.
Terrelle Pryor, OSU’s starting QB as a true sophomore, hasn’t lived up to the hype. He has completed just 54.6 percent of his passes for 1,543 yards with a 13/9 TD-INT ratio. Pryor also has a team-high 554 rushing yards and six TDs.
Nobody is questioning Pryor’s athleticism. He can scramble with the best of them, but his passing accuracy is a major question mark. After the loss to Purdue that stemmed from a pair of Pryor interceptions, there was some speculation that he might need to change positions for 2010.
Since the loss in West Lafayette, Ohio St. has won back-to-back games, thumping Minnesota 38-7 as a 16-point home favorite before trashing New Mexico St. 45-0 last week.
As a home favorite this season, PSU owns an abysmal 1-4 spread record. However, we should note that the Nittany Lions are 5-1 SU in Happy Valley, and they were favored by 17 or more in four of their five lined games at home.
Ohio St. hasn’t been a road underdog yet this year. During Tressel’s nine-year tenure, the Bucks are 3-4 ATS in seven games as road ‘dogs.
The ‘under’ is 6-1-1 overall for PSU, 5-0 in its home contests. The ‘under’ is 4-1-1 overall for the Bucks with their only true road game with a total ending in a push.
ABC will provide the telecast for this Big Ten showdown at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 Clemson-FSU head-to-head meetings.
--Kansas has lost five in a row ATS going into Saturday’s game at Kansas St. as a three-point road favorite.
--I’ve been hesitant to pull the trigger on an Alabama play (minus 7 ½) this week. With that said, I do think Nick Saban’s squad is in a good teaser situation, needing to beat LSU at home by just two points. I only do teasers if I can find a pair of home teams favored by 6-8 points. N.C. St. could be that team to tease with the Crimson Tide.
--FSU has been atrocious when favored this season, compiling a 1-4 SU record and 0-5 ATS mark. On the flip side, the Seminoles are perfect as underdogs, winning outright at BYU (54-28) and at North Carolina (30-27). They are nine-point ‘dogs Saturday night at Clemson. I’ve considered adding FSU to my pick pack and still might. My lean is certainly toward Bobby Bowden’s squad. It would be vintage Clemson to lose outright after winning three straight and looking great in doing so. Seriously, has any school over the last decade been more schizophrenic than Clemson? The ‘Noles are as generous as plus-300 on the money line at a few books.
vegasinsider.com
LSU at Alabama
By Brian Edwards
There’s no debate about where the most important game of Week 10 will take place in college football. That would be in Tuscaloosa at Bryant-Denny Stadium, where Alabama (8-0 straight up, 5-3 against the spread) will play host to its bitter SEC West rival, LSU.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Crimson Tide as a 10-point favorite with a total of 37 ½. On Monday, most books were using nine, but the number was down to 7 ½ by Friday. The total was in the 39-40 range, while bettors had a chance to take the Tigers to win outright for a plus-240 payout (risk $100 to win $240).
Nick Saban’s team is coming off a bye week after winning eight consecutive games, including its first five in SEC play against Arkansas (35-7), Kentucky (38-20), Ole Miss (22-3), South Carolina (20-6) and Tennessee (12-10).
The Vols nearly pulled a stunner two weeks ago, but they had a potential game-winning field goal blocked by Alabama All-American defensive tackle Terrence Cody as time expired. Cody also blocked a field goal attempt in the final seconds of the first half.
After the loss, UT coach Lane Kiffin cried like a chump about the officiating instead of taking ownership for a two-minute offense that could’ve easily put the Vols’ kicker in better position if not for a complete lack of urgency at the conclusion of both halves. Nevertheless, UT took the cash as a 14 ½-point road underdog.
Leigh Tiffin’s four field goals is all the offense ‘Bama could muster against Monte Kiffin’s defensive unit. Greg McElroy connected on 18-of-29 throws for 120 yards without a touchdown or interception. Mark Ingram ran for 99 yards on 18 carries.
Since its lone loss of the season to Florida by a 13-3 count in Baton Rouge, LSU (7-1 SU, 4-2-2 ATS) has responded with back-to-back victories. After an open date following the loss to UF, the Bayou Bengals put it on Auburn 31-10 as 7 ½-point home favorites. Jordan Jefferson was the catalyst, completing 20-of-30 passes for 236 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Jefferson also had a 15-yard touchdown run.
Les Miles’ bunch dropped Tulane 42-0 last week, covering the ‘chalky’ 36 ½-point number at home. Charles Scott led the way with 112 rushing yards and a pair of TDs on just 18 carries. Jefferson threw for 163 yards and two TDs to Brandon LaFell.
Speaking of LaFell, he leads the SEC in touchdown receptions with eight. LaFell, a first-team All-SEC selection in 2008, has 37 catches for 478 yards. Terrance Toliver has a team-high 38 receptions for 501 yards and three TD grabs.
I had my doubts about Jefferson going into the year, but he has answered the call for the most part. He struggled against Florida, but what quarterback hasn’t? Jefferson’s season numbers are solid: 63.7% completion rate for 1,421 passing yards with an 11/4 touchdown-interception ratio.
McElroy exceeded expectations early in his first season as Alabama’s starting quarterback following a three-year stretch of John Parker Wilson under center. But the junior signal caller has seemingly regressed in the last three games against the best defenses he’s seen all year (Ole Miss, South Carolina and Tennessee).
Still, McElroy owns a 9/3 touchdown-interception ratio for the year. His favorite target is Julio Jones, but some say that’s the problem. Jones is often double-covered and McElroy has had a tendency to try and force the ball his way. Jones has not had the type of year most expected from him, as he has just 20 receptions for 229 yards and one touchdown.
Ingram has stolen the show and could become the first player in Alabama school history to win the Heisman Trophy. And no, that wasn’t a misprint. Nobody for the Crimson Tide has brought that hardware from the Big Apple to T-town. Not Joe Namath, not Kenny Stabler, not Shaun Alexander, nor Bobby Humphrey.
Ingram has rushed for an SEC-leading 125.5 yards per game. He’s averaging 6.6 yards per carry and has eight rushing touchdowns. Ingram has been so good that freshman sensation Trent Richardson (5.1 YPC) and bruising Roy Upchurch have become afterthoughts in the Tide’s attack.
When these teams met last season, every member of the LSU football program deserved to win. Miles and his staff did everything in their power to come out on top. So did every player except for one – QB Jarrett Lee. In fairness to Lee, the blame should actually fall on Ryan Perrilloux, who was supposed to be the starting QB in 2008.
But Perrilloux’s endless mistakes off the field resulted in his dismissal from the team, leaving Lee as the starter far before he was ready to lead a talented squad hoping to repeat as national champs. And the Tigers couldn’t overcome Lee’s freshman mistakes against the Tide.
Although LSU dominated most of the game, Lee’s interceptions were too much to overcome. His last pick in overtime sealed the deal for the Tide, who escaped with a 27-21 victory in the extra session. Gamblers backing ‘Bama pulled out a miraculous cover laying three points.
When these teams last met at Bryant-Denny in 2007, the reverse was true. ‘Bama controlled much of the game and had a seven-point lead late in the fourth quarter. On a fourth-and-long play, Matt Flynn found Early Doucet for the first down and Doucet did the rest, breaking a pair of tackles before sprinting into the end zone to tie the game at 34-34.
Several plays later, Wilson coughed up a fumble. Jacob Hester would make the Tide pay moments later, bullying his way to paydirt to give LSU a 41-34 win and keep their national-championship hopes alive. On that occasion, bettors backing LSU garnered a fortunate push with the Tigers listed as seven-point favorites.
In 2009, Alabama is second in the SEC in scoring defense, giving up 11.4 points per game. LSU is third in the SEC in scoring defense, surrendering only 12.1 PPG.
The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight LSU games and is 6-2 overall for the Tigers. However, they have watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 in their three road assignments. The ‘under’ is 4-3 overall for ‘Bama, 3-1 in its home contests. Regardless of the venue, the Tide has seen three consecutive ‘unders’ hit.
CBS will provide television coverage at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Don't be surprised if special teams play a huge role in this game. 'Bama's Javier Arenas is a dynamic punt returner, leading the SEC in that category with a 16.8 yards-per-return average. He had a 61-yard punt return for a TD in the '07 game against LSU. For the Tigers, Trindon Holliday is a burner who has shredded the SEC record books in track and field during the spring throughout his stay in Baton Rouge. Holliday is currently third in the SEC in punt return average (14.6). Also, we mentioned Tiffin's four FGs to beat UT. He's up for the Lou Groza Award for the nation's premier place kicker.
--During Miles' five-year tenure at LSU, his team is 2-3 ATS as a road underdog. The Tigers went to Athens earlier this year in their only spot as road 'dogs, capturing a 20-13 win as three-point puppies. Meanwhile, 'Bama is 6-10 ATS as a road 'chalk' on Saban's watch. The Tide is 2-3 versus the number in such situations this year, including back-to-back non-covers against South Carolina (20-6 win as an 18-point favorite) and UT.
--ESPN's NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper ranks LaFell as the No. 2 senior wide receiver in college football.
--Vanderbilt sophomore quarterback Larry Smith is “out” for the rest of the season with a partially torn hamstring sustained in last week’s 56-31 home loss to Ga. Tech. Mackenzie Adams, a fifth-year senior, will make his 10th career start and his first of the season Saturday at Florida. Adams came off the bench to complete 12-of-22 passes for 152 yards against the Yellow Jackets. LVSC opened UF as a 35-point home favorite against the Commodores. The number was 32 ½ at a few books Monday, but the Gators were back up to 35 as of Thursday afternoon. Bobby Johnson’s team is 1-2-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog in 2009, while UF is 3-3-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
-- Florida has won 18 in a row against Vandy, including last year’s 42-14 win as a 23 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ The ‘Dores haven’t won in Gainesville since 1945.
--Florida All-American LB Brandon Spikes is "out" vs. Vandy. On Monday, Urban Meyer announced that Spikes would be suspended for the first half after video surfaced from last week's win over Georgia showing Spikes attempting to gouge the eyes of UGA running back Washaun Ealey. After Meyer came under fire for not being more stern, Spikes himself announced Wednesday that he won't play at all because he didn't want to be a distraction to his teammates. This noble move, coupled with Spikes' decision to stay in school (and perhaps even the nasty streak he has that was evident in this whole episode), should only help his stock in the upcoming NFL Draft. (At least it would if I were a GM. And remember, many GMs wouldn't touch Percy Harvin last year, while I was amused by the fact that this year's favorite to win Rookie of the Year honors didn't go in the top 10 selections.)
--Is South Carolina poised for a third consecutive late-season swoon? Maybe. Without a doubt, the Gamecocks are going to have a hard time emerging from Fayetteville with a victory this Saturday. That’s because they will be without three important starters, including junior defensive end Cliff Matthews and junior safety Chris Culliver. Matthews is tied for fourth in the SEC in sacks with five, and he’s second in the SEC in fumble recoveries with three. Also, junior OT Jarriel King is “out” after sustaining a concussion in last week’s 31-13 loss at Tennessee. The final score is a tad misleading, however, because the ‘Cocks out-yarded UT 365-341. The Vols got a pair of gift fumbles that set up first-quarter TDs on USC’s first two drives.
--While South Carolina is nursing injuries galore, Arkansas second-year head coach Bobby Petrino told HawgSports.com that his team “is pretty healthy, we're about as healthy as we've been all year long.” The Hogs spanked Eastern Michigan 63-27 last week. Most books have Arkansas favored by seven vs. USC.
--Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett has an 18/3 touchdown-interception ratio, while Stephen Garcia has a 12/5 TD-INT ratio.
vegasinsider.com
SDST looks for a big upset
By AllStar.com
The #6 TCU Horned Frogs bring their perfect (8-0) record and National Championship dreams to San Diego this Saturday, as they look to take care of business against the (4-4) San Diego State Aztecs. TCU has little room for error if it hopes to secure a BCS bid. When the season began, college football fans were thinking that the two top teams would be coming from major conferences, not the Mountain West.
The Horned Frogs have been dominant all season and the defense has been the key to TCU’s success. Coming off a shutout in their last game, No. 6 TCU looks to stay undefeated against Brady Hoke’s San Diego State Aztecs. TCU’s defense ranks first in the nation with 235.8 yards per game and 97 first downs, and third with 11.1 points per game.
“The confidence level and communication on defense in the last three ball games is the best it’s been since we started with this group in the spring,” Coach Gary Patterson said.
TCU is undefeated through eight games, for just the third time. The Horned Frogs were (8-0) during their 1938 National Championship season and again in 2003. For TCU to get legitimate chance at a second national Championship, they will have to leap frog Boise State and hope for some upsets in the top 5, to open up a golden opportunity.
The Horned Frogs remained sixth in the BCS standings following a 41-0 victory over UNLV, its 10th straight going back to last season. The team moved up two spots in AP poll for its highest ranking since 1956. “I’m exited for our fans,” Coach Gary Patterson said. “My job is to make sure the fans don’t get their hearts broken. We need to finish up and do the things we need to do.”
Critics of TCU have said the Horned Frogs’ haven’t faced many challenges. The team has outscored its opponents 282-89 this season and 123-13 over the last three games.
“We still haven’t played our best game,” said quarterback Andy Dalton, who threw for 178 yards and three touchdowns last week. “We still have a lot of things we can improve on. … We have a lot of potential; hopefully we can put it together soon.”
Andy Dalton has been a dependable source on offense, passing for eight TDs over the last three games and 14 this season. For the Horned Frogs to finish undefeated they’ll have to take care of the Aztecs this Saturday, No. 17 Utah next week, and at Wyoming, and finally at home against New Mexico. With Utah being the only true threat to TCU’s perfect season, Coach Gary Patterson needs to make sure the Horned Frogs don’t overlook an improving San Diego State team.
“The biggest thing you worry about is getting through these next three or four ball games without a letdown,” Patterson said. “If you do have one, can you find a way to win? That’s the hard part. It’s just hard to keep up that kind of intensity for so many ball games.” San Diego State on the other hand is looking for the upset in front of a fan base they’ve been trying to get back into Qualcomm Stadium since the days of Marshall Faulk.
The Aztecs (4-4, 2-2) are coming off their third win in four games after beating New Mexico 23-20 last Saturday. Quarterback Ryan Lindley threw three touchdown passes, including a go-ahead score with 7:54 left in the fourth quarter. He finished 22 of 38 for 253 yards, giving the Aztecs back-to-back wins for the first time since 2007. They haven’t won three in a row since 2002.
“Our seniors have done a tremendous job,” Coach Brady Hoke said. “For them, that’s why we get excited as coaches to sing our fight song in the locker room. Guys know how we played and what we need to do to get better. It’s great to be at that point right now.”
Sophomore Ryan Lindley has thrown for 1,010 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last three games, completing 63.2 percent of his passes. In his first five games, Lindley threw eight touchdowns and nine interceptions, while completing only 51.1 percent of his passes for 1,132 yards.
BETTING TRENDS:
Horned Frogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Horned Frogs are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 conference games.
Horned Frogs are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 games as a favorite.
Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Over is 12-2 in Aztecs last 14 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
HEAD TO HEAD
Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
TCU has won all four games against San Diego State since beginning MWC play in 2005, including 41-7 last season when the Horned Frogs outgained the Aztecs 498-85
UConn (4-4, 6-1 ATS) at (4) Cincinnati (8-0, 5-2 ATS)
Cincinnati star quarterback Tony Pike is expected to return and at least see limited action as the undefeated Bearcats try to keep their BCS Championship hopes alive with a victory over UConn in a Big East battle from Nippert Stadium.
The Huskies are coming off consecutive heartbreaking losses to West Virginia and Rutgers by identical 28-24 scores. In last week’s contest, UConn outgained Rutgers 481-322 and scored the go-ahead touchdown with 38 seconds left, but after the ensuing kickoff, the Huskies allowed an 81-yard catch-and-run for the game-winning touchdown, failing to cover as a 7½-point home favorite to end a 7-0 ATS run.
Pike reinjured his forearm three weeks ago in a 34-17 road rout of South Florida, but Cincinnati didn’t miss a beat in his absence, rolling past Louisville (41-10 as a 16-point home favorite) and Syracuse (28-7 as a 15½-point road chalk). The Bearcats, who have cashed in three straight games, have been dominating teams all season, winning every game by eight points or more including six wins by at least 17 points.
Cincinnati is averaging 39.1 points and 454 yards per game overall and allowing 12.9 points and 314.2 yards per game. The Bearcats have been even more dominant in their three home wins, putting up per-game averages of 46.3 points and 467.7 yards while yielding 11 ppg and 300.7 ypg. No team has scored more than 20 points against Cincinnati this season.
The Bearcats took a four-game winning streak and 5-1 record to UConn last season and got destroyed 40-16 as a three-point road favorite, losing to the Huskies for the first time in five meetings this decade. Cincinnati managed just 289 total yards and committed six turnovers with Pike returning from an injury and struggling through a 10-for-27, 136-yard, one-TD, one-INT afternoon. Since that defeat, the Bearcats have won 14 consecutive regular-season games (9-4 ATS in lined games).
These teams have alternated spread-covers in their five clashes this decade, with the ‘dog going 4-1 ATS and the home team cashing in each of the last four meetings.
In addition to covering in seven of their last eight lined games going back to last year’s bowl victory, the Huskies are on pointspread upticks of 4-0 on the road, 4-0 as an underdog, 5-1 against winning teams, 12-4 after a SU defeat and 10-2 after an ATS setback. Cincinnati is on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 13-5 at home, 8-4 as a home favorite, 4-0 in Big East play and 6-1-1 in November.
The over is 4-1 in UConn’s last five overall and 4-1 in Cincinnati’s last five in November. However, the Bearcats carry “under” streaks of 5-0 overall (all as a favorite) and 4-0 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Navy (6-3, 5-4 ATS) at (19) Notre Dame (6-2, 2-6 ATS)
The Midshipmen try to bounce back from their first loss in six weeks when they travel to South Bend, Ind., for their annual clash with Notre Dame, which is seeking its third straight win.
Navy took a five-game winning streak in last week’s home game against Temple, but gave up the game-winning touchdown on a 41-yard run with 2:41 to play to fall 27-24 as a seven-point home favorite. The Middies’ last three games and four of the past five have been decided by a field goal, including two overtime contests. Since starting the season with consecutive spread-covers, Navy is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven.
Notre Dame’s six-game stretch of nail-biters finally ended with last week’s 40-14 rout of Washington State in a neutral-site contest in San Antonio. The Irish dominated the stats, finishing with a 592-206 edge in total offense (337-104 passing) and a two-to-one advantage in time of possession, but failed to cover as a 28-point favorite as Washington State scored a TD with a little more than five minutes remaining to get the backdoor cover. That dropped Notre Dame to 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
Prior to last week, the Irish had played in six straight games decided by seven points or less, including one overtime contest and four games decided by four points or less.
Notre Dame held off the Middies 27-21 as a four-point road favorite last year, avenging a 46-44 triple-overtime loss as a three-point chalk in South Bend in 2007. That victory in 2007 ended Navy’s NCAA-record 43-game losing skid to the Irish. The teams have split the cash in the last six series meetings, alternating spread-covers every year, but going back several seasons, the Middies are on a 13-6 ATS run. Finally, the visitor is on a 13-1 ATS roll in this annual matchup (6-0 last six), with Navy cashing in nine consecutive trips to South Bend.
The Midshipmen are on ATS runs of 55-24 on the road, 27-12 as a road ‘dog, 8-2 as a pup of more than 10 points and 4-1 after a SU defeat. Notre Dame’s list of negative ATS trends includes 1-6 overall, 0-6 as a favorite, 1-4 at home, 5-17 as a home favorite and 1-4 in November. Also, the underdog has cashed in each of the Irish’s last seven games.
The over is 4-1 in Navy’s last five overall, 9-4 in its last 13 as a road underdog, 7-3-1 in Notre Dame’s last 11 at home and 8-2-1 in Notre Dame’s last 11 when giving more than 10 points. Finally, three of the last four series meetings overall and three straight at Notre Dame have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NAVY and OVER
(9) LSU (7-1, 4-4 ATS) at (3) Alabama (8-0, 5-3 ATS)
The only matchup of the day involving Top 10 teams comes from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, where the Crimson Tide come off their bye and look to lock up the SEC West title with a victory over hated LSU.
The Tigers prepped for this contest with a pair of blowout home wins: a 31-10 rout over Auburn as a 7½-point favorite on Oct. 24 followed by last Saturday’s 42-0 whitewash of Tulane as a 36½-pint chalk. LSU outgained those two opponents by a combined 422 yards, and going back to a 38-3 rout of Georgia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl on New Year’s Eve, the Tigers are 8-1 SU (5-4 ATS). The only loss came on Oct. 10 to top-ranked Florida, a 13-3 setback as a 9½-point home underdog. Over its last four games, LSU has surrendered a total of 36 points.
Alabama survived a huge scare two weeks ago against SEC rival Tennessee, with the Tide blocking two fourth-quarter field-goal attempts (including one on the final play of the game) to escape 12-10, their 20th consecutive regular-season win. However, Alabama failed to deliver as a 14-point home favorite in the narrow victory, its second straight non-cover after a 4-0 ATS roll. Still, the Tide have held their last seven opponents to 20 points or less, with five of the last six scoring 10 or less.
On their way to a perfect regular season last year, the Crimson Tide needed overtime to get past LSU, winning 27-21 as a three-point road favorite. That snapped Alabama’s five-game losing skid (1-3-1 ATS) in this rivalry. With last year’s result, the visitor is now 10-1-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series, the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six and LSU is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six visits to Tuscaloosa, winning the last four outright.
Alabama’s offense has been stuck in the mud the last three games, producing just 18 points and 322 total yards per game after scoring 34 or more in each of their first five contests and averaging 462.8 total ypg. Junior QB Greg McElroy has no TDs, two INTs and just 359 passing yards in the past three games after throwing for 1,086 yards with nine TDs and one pick in his first five contests. On the bright side, Nick Saban’s defense continues to shine, yielding only 11.4 points, 240.9 total yards, 64.9 rushing yards per game and 2.2 yards per rush attempt, figures that rank fifth, third, second and second in the nation.
Like Alabama, LSU’s strength is its defense, giving up just 12.1 ppg (7th) and 293 total ypg (15th). Offensively, the Tigers net 26.4 points and 325.4 total yards per game, with QB Jordan Jefferson completing 63.5 percent of his passes for 1,415 yards with 11 TDs and just four INTs.
LSU has covered in consecutive games for the first time since November 2007, a stretch of 24 lined contests. Les Miles’ squad hasn’t cashed in three straight games since beginning that 2007 season 3-0 ATS. Since that time, the Tigers are 8-20-1 ATS in lined regular-season games, 4-7 ATS on the road and 6-15-1 ATS against SEC competition. Additionally, LSU is in ATS ruts of 0-7 in November, 3-8 after a SU win and 2-5 as an underdog, but it is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 when catching between 3½ and 10 points.
Alabama is in pointspread funks of 1-4 after a bye, 10-22-1 as a home favorite and 5-11 after a non-cover, but the Crimson Tide are also on ATS runs of 4-0 in November, 10-4 as a favorite, 7-3 in SEC play and 5-1 when laying between 3½ and 10 points.
The over is 11-4 in LSU’s last 15 roadies and 8-2 in its last 10 in November, but otherwise the Tigers carry “under” trends of 4-0 overall, 4-1 in league play, 13-5 as an underdog and 20-7-1 as a road pup. Similarly, Alabama is on “under” rolls of 4-1 overall, 7-1 in SEC play, 6-1 in November and 5-2 after a bye. However, the last three meetings between these rivals have gone over the total following a 4-0 “under” run in the series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Kansas (5-3, 2-5 ATS) at Kansas State (5-4, 4-3 ATS)
Kansas State looks to remain alone atop the Big 12 North standings when it hosts archrival Kansas, which heads to Bill Snyder Stadium looking to snap a three-game losing skid.
The Jayhawks ended last year with consecutive wins and covers, then opened up 2009 with five straight victories (2-2 ATS in lined action), but they’ve since hit the skids, dropping three in a row both SU and ATS. After falling 34-30 at Colorado as an eight-point favorite, Kansas got thumped by Oklahoma (35-13 as an eight-point home pup) and Texas Tech (42-21 as a 6½-point road ‘dog). The Jayhawks, who scored between 34 and 49 points during their seven-game winning streak (37.9 ppg), have averaged just 21.3 points and 328.7 total ypg during their three-game slide.
The Wildcats’ modest two-game winning streak came to a halt with last week’s 42-30 loss at Oklahoma, but they did battle back from a 28-6 second-quarter deficit to cover easily as a 28-point road underdog. Kansas State, which got outgained 458-364 at Oklahoma, has now cashed in three straight games and is 4-1 ATS in its last five lined outings, all in Big 12 action. That spread-covering streak comes on the heels of a 3-9 ATS funk.
Kansas State sits atop the Big 12 North standings at 3-2 (4-1 ATS), a half-game ahead of Nebraska, while the Jayhawks are in a three-way tie for last at 1-3 (0-4 ATS).
Kansas blasted the Wildcats 52-21 as a 7½-point home favorite last year, its third straight win and cover in this rivalry. The Jayhawks are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five years against K-State after losing the previous 11 meetings (1-10 ATS). The SU winner has cashed in each of the last 15 years, and the favorite is on a 12-2 ATS roll. Also, the Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Manhattan, Kan.
The Jayhawks have now dropped five straight ATS decisions, but it is still on pointspread surges of 12-5 on the road, 19-7 as a favorite, 5-2 as a road chalk, 5-1 when laying a field goal or less and 11-5 in November. Meanwhile, although K-State has cashed in four of five overall and is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven when catching three points or less, it remains in ATS slumps of 4-9 against winning teams, 1-4 as a home pup and 1-8 in November.
Kansas is on “over” stretches of 10-4 overall, 6-2 on the road, 11-3 in November, 7-3 in Big 12 play and 4-0 as a favorite. Likewise, the Wildcats are on “over” runs of 43-20 overall, 19-7 in conference, 22-8 as an underdog, 6-0 as a home pup, 20-6 in November, 23-8 on artificial turf and 27-7 after a SU defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(20) Oklahoma (5-3, 2-4 ATS) at Nebraska (5-3 SU and ATS)
The Sooners and Cornhuskers renew their storied rivalry, with Oklahoma making the trek to Memorial Stadium for a Big 12 cross-divisional battle.
Oklahoma followed up a difficult 16-13 loss to Texas as a three-point underdog by sweeping the Kansas schools the last two weeks, first routing Kansas (35-13 as an eight-point favorite) then pounding Kansas State last Saturday (42-30 as a 28-point home favorite). All five of the Sooners’ wins this year have been double-digit routs, while the three losses came by a total of five points. In fact, Oklahoma’s last 23 victories and 28 of the last 29 have come by double digits.
Nebraska halted a two-game slide with last Saturday’s 20-10 victory at Baylor, though the Huskers – after jumping out 20-0 at halftime – failed to score in the second half and thus didn’t cover as a 13½-point road favorite. It was Nebraska’s third straight non-cover after starting the year with five straight ATS wins. Take away three blowout wins over Sun Belt Conference opponents in which they scored 49, 38 and 55 points, and the Cornhuskers have averaged just 21.2 ppg, scoring 20 or less four times.
Oklahoma has won four straight meetings against Nebraska since 2001, cashing in each of the last three. Last year, the Sooners rolled 62-28 as a 21-point home favorite. The Cornhuskers’ only spread-cover in the last four meetings came in 2004, when they kicked a meaningless 39-yard field goal as time expired in a 30-3 loss as a 29-point road underdog. The favorite has gotten the money in four of the last five meetings and the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven.
With last week’s non-cover against Kansas State, the Sooners are now just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five overall, but they remain on pointspread surges of 7-2-1 in conference play, 7-1-1 on the road, 7-1 as a road chalk and 5-0 in November. Nebraska has dropped four of five Big 12 games against the number and five of six conference home games ATS, but otherwise it is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a SU victory, 5-2 ATS in its last seven against winning teams and 18-3-1 ATS the last 22 times it has hosted a team with a winning road record.
For Oklahoma, the over is on runs of 10-3 in conference and 4-0 in November, while Nebraska has topped the total in 23 of 30 in November and five of seven as a home pup. Conversely, the under is on stretches of 7-1 for Oklahoma overall, 4-0 for Nebraska overall (all in the Big 12) and 4-1 for Nebraska at home. Finally, although last year’s 62-28 shootout flew over the total, the under is still 4-2 in the last six meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA and UNDER
(15) Ohio State (7-2 SU and ATS) at (11) Penn State (8-1, 4-4 ATS)
The marquee game in the Big Ten this week comes from Beaver Stadium in Happy Valley, where Ohio State hopes to extend the visitor’s winning streak to three in a row in this rivalry, while the Nittany Lions try to keep their conference title hopes alive.
The Buckeyes stepped out of conference last week and destroyed overmatched New Mexico State 45-0, barely covering as a 44-point home favorite. After dropping a stunning 26-18 decision at Purdue as a 12-point favorite in its most recent road game, Ohio State has won its last two by a combined score of 83-7. Also, the Buckeyes are 6-1 in their last seven games, with the defense pitching three shutouts while yielding a total of 34 points in the other three wins. Additionally, Ohio State has scored 30 or more in all seven victories but was held to 15 and 18 points in its two defeats.
Penn State has ripped off five consecutive blowout wins (4-0 ATS in lined action) since getting clipped 21-10 at home by Iowa on Sept. 26. Last week at Northwestern, the Nittany Lions busted open a 13-13 tie by scoring the final 21 points to win 34-13 and cash as 17-point road favorite. Take out the loss to Iowa – in which the Hawkeyes scored nine of their 21 points on a blocked punt and a safety – and Penn State has won its other eight games by a combined score of 266-63, yielding seven points or fewer in five of the eight games. Joe Paterno’s defense has given up more than 18 points just once in its last 21 victories since November 2007, allowing 10 or less 13 times during this span.
Penn State avenged a 37-17 home loss to the Buckeyes as a three-point home underdog in 2007 with last year’s 13-6 victory in Columbus as a 1½-point road chalk in a game that decided the Big Ten champion. Previously, the host had covered nine in a row in this rivalry, and the favorite is now 4-1 ATS in the last five (3-0 ATS last three). Ohio State is still 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings (4-3 ATS), but just 1-4 ATS in its last five visits to Happy Valley. Finally, the SU winner has cashed in 10 of the last 11 head-to-head battles.
These teams field two of the best defenses in the country. Penn State leads the nation in scoring defense (9.3 ppg) while Ohio State is sixth (11.7 ppg); Penn State is fifth in total defense (254.8 ypg) while Ohio State is sixth (260 ypg); and Penn State is fifth in rushing defense (84.1 ypg) while Ohio State is sixth (86.4 ypg). Altogether, the two teams have allowed 19 offensive touchdowns through a combined 18 games. At the same time, Penn State has forced 18 turnovers and Ohio State has 24 giveaways.
The Buckeyes are on ATS upswings of 36-17 overall, 20-7 on the road, 26-9 in Big Ten action, 21-5 when playing on grass, 4-0 in November and 6-0 against winning teams. The Nittany Lions have cashed in four straight games overall (all as a favorite, all in conference), but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven November outings, 1-4 ATS in their last five as a home chalk and 2-7 ATS when laying between 3½ and 10 points at Beaver Stadium.
Not surprisingly considering both teams’ strength is on defense, both carry a slew of low-scoring trends. For Ohio State, the under is on runs of 6-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 on the road, 6-0-1 after a SU win and 4-0 as a ‘dog, The under is also 5-0 in Penn State’s last five overall and 6-2 in its last eight as a favorite. Lastly, four of the last five in this series have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Oregon State (5-3, 3-4 ATS) at (23) California (6-2, 3-4 ATS)
The Beavers try for their third straight series win over California when they head south to Berkeley for a Pac-10 clash at Memorial Stadium.
Oregon State bounced back from a difficult loss at USC with a 26-19 victory over UCLA last week, but came up short as a 10-point home favorite, ending a 3-0 ATS run. The Beavers, who have won three of their last four, are rolling offensively, piling up 32, 28, 38, 36 and 26 points over the last five games. On the downside, the defense has surrendered 28.5 ppg over the past six contests.
The Bears ran their winning streak to three in a row and climbed back into the Top 25 with last Saturday’s 23-21 win at Arizona State, with kicker Giorgio Tavecchio hitting the game-winning 24-yard field goal with 21 seconds left. Cal jumped out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead, but managed just three field goals from there. The Bears are averaging 44 ppg in their six wins while getting just a single field goal in their two losses to Oregon (42-3) and USC (30-3).
Oregon State dominated Cal in a 34-21 home win last year as a 3½-point chalk, finishing with a 339-232 edge in total offense (194-85 on the ground). In their last trip to Berkeley in 2007, the Beavers shocked then-No. 3 Cal 31-28 as a 14-point underdog, making them 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three trips to Memorial Stadium. Oregon State is now 8-2 (6-4 ATS) since 1999 in this rivalry, with the SU winner cashing in each of the last seven. Also, prior to last year, the visitor had been on a 5-0 SU and ATS run in this series.
The Beavers are on ATS tears of 12-5 overall, 15-5 in Pac-10 play, 10-3 on the road, 5-0 in Pac-10 roadies, 6-1 as an underdog, 4-0 as a road pup, 13-4 on artificial turf, 11-3 after a SU win and 5-1 in November. Cal counters its current 1-4 ATS slump (all in Pac-10 play) with pointspread upticks of 9-3 at home, 12-6 as a favorite, 9-2 as a home chalk, 5-1 as a home favorite in Pac-10 games, 17-5 when laying between 3½ and 10 points and 9-4 on turf.
The under is 5-1 in Oregon State’s last six road games and 6-0 in its last six when catching between 3½ and 10 points, and 10 of Cal’s last 14 November contests have stayed low. However, the Bears are also on “over” streaks of 4-2 at home, 4-2 as a favorite and 18-7 as a home favorite. Also, the last two series meetings topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE
(7) Oregon (7-1, 6-2 ATS) at Stanford (5-3 SU and ATS)
The red-hot Ducks go for their eighth consecutive win when they hit the road for the third time in four weeks for a Pac-10 showdown against improving Stanford.
Oregon totally embarrassed then-No. 4 USC a week ago, cruising to a 47-20 victory as a three-point home underdog, the team’s seventh straight win and sixth consecutive spread-cover. It was a total domination by the Ducks, who piled up 613 yards, including 391 rushing, while holding USC to 327 total yards (140 rushing). QB Jeremiah Masoli stole the show, going 19-for-31 for 222 passing yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 164 yards on 13 carries (12.6 yards per rush) and another score. Oregon punted just once all night, and that was in the fourth quarter.
Stanford was idle last week following a 33-14 beat-down of Arizona State as a seven-point home favorite on Oct. 24. The Cardinal had a 473-290 advantage in total offense in the victory, which came on the heels of back-to-back tough road losses at Oregon State (38-28) and Arizona (43-38). Stanford is unbeaten in four home games this year, and going back to the final game of the 2007 season, the Cardinal are a perfect 10-0 ATS (9-1 SU) at Stanford Stadium, including 4-0 ATS as a home underdog.
Oregon has taken down Stanford each of the last seven years, winning by an average margin of 22.6 ppg. Last year was one of just two recent meetings that wasn’t a double-digit blowout, as the Ducks prevailed 35-28 – scoring the winning TD with six seconds left – but the Cardinal covered as a 14-point underdog to end an 0-6 ATS drought in this rivalry. Stanford got outgained 451-325 last year, the seventh straight time the Ducks had a total offense edge in excess of 125 yards. In fact, Oregon has outgained Stanford by a total of 1,444 yards the last seven years, or 206.3 ypg.
Also in this series, the Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Palo Alto, the visitor is 4-1 ATS in the last five battles overall and the favorite has covered in five of the last seven matchups.
In addition to cashing in six consecutive games, Oregon is on pointspread tears of 4-1 on the road, 4-0 as a favorite, 5-0 as a road chalk, 7-0 in league action, 10-1 after a SU win and 4-0 versus opponents with a winning record. Stanford’s 10-0 ATS run at home is aided by a 7-3 ATS mark in its last 10 conference contests, but the Cardinal have failed to cash in five of seven as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points.
The Ducks are riding “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 10-2-2 as a favorite, 11-5-1 as a road chalk and 6-2 in Pac-10 play. The over is also 4-0 in Stanford’s last four November games and 9-2 in its last 11 as an underdog, but otherwise the Cardinal carry “under” trends of 15-7 at home, 43-20-1 in league games and 4-1 after a bye week.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON
Florida State (4-4, 2-5 ATS) at Clemson (5-3, 5-2 ATS)
The Seminoles try again for their first three-game winning streak of the season when they head north to Death Valley for an ACC Atlantic Division tussle with Clemson, which is tied atop the division standings and is seeking its fourth consecutive victory.
Florida State continued its season-long trend of playing close games last Saturday, holding off North Carolina State 45-42 but failing to cover as a 10½-point home favorite. The Seminoles got the game-winning touchdown with 96 seconds to play and finished with a whopping 555 yards of total offense (278 rushing). However, the defense permitted 538 yards (189 rushing). Including a 30-27, come-from-behind win at North Carolina two weeks ago, Florida State’s last three games were decided by a total of 11 points. In fact, only once this year has an FSU game been decided by more than 10 points.
Over their last three games, the ‘Noles have averaged 39.7 points and 510.7 yards per game, but the defense has yielded 39.3 points and 467.7 yards per outing, including 276 rushing ypg.
Clemson took a break from ACC play last Saturday and toyed with Coastal Carolina, winning 49-3 in a non-lined home game. That rout came on the heels of a 38-3 home victory over Wake Forest as an 8½-point favorite and a 40-37 overtime upset of Miami as a four-point road ‘dog. Prior to the last three games (42.3 ppg), the Tigers had averaged just 20.8 points in their previous four contests. Clemson’s defense has held five of eight foes to 14 points or less. For the season, the D surrenders just 16.5 points and 278 total ypg, figures that rank 15th and 12th in the nation (respectively) and first and second in the ACC (respectively).
The home team has won six of the last seven meetings in this rivalry and is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14. Last year, the Seminoles snapped a three-game SU and ATS losing skid to the Tigers, winning 41-27 as a 3½-point home favorite. Still, Bobby Bowden’s squad has failed to cash in any of its last six trips to Clemson.
Florida State has failed to cover in four of its last five overall (all within the ACC), but it is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five on the road, 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog, 6-1-1 ATS In its last eight as a pup of 3½ to 10 points and 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, Clemson is on ATS tears of 9-3 overall, 6-1 at home, 6-1 in ACC action and 5-1 as a home favorite.
The ‘Noles have topped the total in four straight games overall, four of five on the road, six straight as an underdog and five straight in league play. Conversely, Clemson carries “under” trends of 5-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 14-2 as a favorite, 9-2 as a home chalk and 10-4 in ACC play.
The over is 7-3 in the last 10 series meetings (4-1 last five), but all three “unders” occurred in Death Valley.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON
(13) Houston (7-1, 6-1 ATS) at Tulsa (4-4, 4-3 ATS)
The Cougars and Heisman Trophy candidate Case Keenum figure to face a difficult road test when they invade Skelly Stadium for a Conference USA West Division showdown with Tulsa.
Houston went back-and-forth all day with Southern Miss a week ago, eventually walking off with a 50-43 victory, barely eking out the cover as a 6½-point home favorite to improve to 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games. Keenum had another monster day, completing 44 of 54 passes for a career-best 559 yards with five TDs and one INT. Keenum’s final scoring strike was from 28 yards out with 21 seconds left to break a 43-43 tie. The teams combined for an insane 1,358 total yards and 67 first downs, with the Cougars accounting for 750 of the yards and 39 first downs.
Going back to last year’s 34-28 Armed Forces Bowl win over Air Force as a four-point favorite, Houston is 8-1 SU (7-1 ATS in lined games), with the winner covering the spread each time. Through eight games this year, Keenum is completing 71.6 percent of his passes for 3,293 yards (411.6 ypg) with 25 TDs, figures that rank second, first and first in the nation. He also has thrown just five INTs in 398 pass attempts.
Tulsa won its bowl game last year and began this season 4-1 SU, the only loss coming at Oklahoma. But the Golden Hurricane have since hit the skids, losing three in a row (1-2 ATS), including last Saturday’s surprising 27-13 loss to SMU as a 14½-point home favorite. During the slide – which also includes losses to Boise State and UTEP – Tulsa has put up just 19.3 points and 348.3 yards per outing while surrendering 27.7 points and 418.3 yards per game.
The last three meetings in this series have gone to the home team both SU and ATS, with the last two being lopsided blowouts, as Tulsa won 56-7 as a one-point favorite in 2007, followed last year by the Cougars’ 70-30 rout as a 3½-point underdog. In last year’s game at Houston, the teams tallied 1,142 total yards, with Keenum going 24-for-37 for 402 yards with six TD throws and no picks.
Houston is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings with the Hurricane; the underdog has covered in four of the last five; and the SU winner is 9-0 ATS in this rivalry going back to 1985.
In addition to covering in their last four overall and eight of their last nine, the Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a favorite, but they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a road chalk, 1-5 ATS in their last six games on artificial turf and 2-6 ATS in their last eight in November. Tulsa is in the midst of ATS nosedives of 1-4 as an underdog, 1-4-1 in C-USA contests and 1-5 in November, but despite last week’s upset loss to SMU, the Hurricane are still 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
The over is 5-2 in Houston’s last seven league games, but the under is 7-3 in its last 10 as a road favorite. It’s been nothing but “unders” for Tulsa, including 13-3-1 overall (9-0 last nine), 18-7-1 at home (4-0 last four), 5-0 in conference play, 7-0 on turf and 4-0 as an underdog. Finally, prior to last year’s 70-30 shootout in Houston, these teams had played three straight games that stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER
(12) USC (6-2, 2-6 ATS) at Arizona State (4-4, 4-3 ATS)
With its national championship and Pac-10 title hopes now history, the Trojans will have to find new motivation as they begin November with a conference contest at Sun Devil Stadium against Arizona State.
USC is coming off the most humiliating loss in coach Pete Carroll’s nine years with the school, as it got drubbed 47-20 at Oregon as a three-point road favorite last Saturday to snap a four-game win streak. USC got on the board first with a field goal, but it was all Oregon from there, as the Ducks gashed the Trojans’ suddenly struggling defense for 613 total yards, 391 rushing yards, 30 first downs and five touchdowns. Offensively, USC managed just 327 yards, with freshman QB Matt Barkley going 21 of 38 for 187 yards with two TDs and one INT.
Three weeks ago, the Trojans were fielding one of the nation’s top stop units statistically, as they had allowed a total of 43 points and two touchdowns. But over the past three games, the defense has been torched for 27, 36 and 47 points, surrendering 13 touchdowns, 1,462 total yards and 626 rushing yards, with opposing ball-carriers picking up 5.5 yards per rush.
The Sun Devils have dropped two in a row and four of six since starting the season with consecutive blowout wins over inferior competition Idaho State and Louisiana-Monroe. Two weeks ago, Arizona State got blitzed at Stanford 33-14 as a 6½-point underdog, then last Saturday, the Sun Devils hosted Cal and battled back from an early 14-0 hole to take a 21-20 lead, only to give up the game-winning field goal with 1:36 to play to lose 23-21 but cover as a 6½-point ‘dog. ASU has been outgained by a combined 881-619 margin the last two weeks.
USC has won all nine meetings this decade with Arizona State, going 6-2-1 ATS, but 1-3 ATS in the past four years. Last season, the Trojans won 28-0 but fell just short as a 29-point home favorite. USC has posted three straight double-digit wins at Sun Devil Stadium and is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four visits to the desert.
USC has now failed to cover in three straight games and six of its last seven, all as a favorite, going 1-4 ATS on the road during this stretch. Dating to last year, the Trojans are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 overall, 1-7 ATS in their last eight on the road and 1-7 ATS in their last eight Pac-10 games. On the positive end, USC is 27-0 SU and 21-5 ATS in November under Carroll, and the team is on positive pointspread surges of 12-4 after a defeat (8-2 last 10), 16-5 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points and 9-2 when laying that price on the road.
Arizona State has now cashed in four of its last five at home, but otherwise is in ATS funks of 3-9 as an underdog, 1-4 as a home pup, 4-9 against winning teams, 8-19 in November, 3-7 after a SU loss and 1-7 after an ATS win.
The Trojans have topped the total in three straight games, but the under is still 21-10-1 in their last 32 overall, 33-16-2 in their last 51 Pac-10 affairs, 25-12-1 in their last 38 as a favorite and 7-3-1 in their last 11 in November. It’s been all “unders” for the Sun Devils, too, including runs of 33-16-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 20-8-2 in league contests, 18-7-2 as an underdog, 6-2 in November, 12-3-1 after a SU loss and 20-5-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five clashes in this rivalry, but five of the last six meetings at Sun Devil Stadium have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER
Game of the Day: Connecticut at Cincinnati
By Nick Parsons
It’s not often that ABC's lead broadcast crew of Kirk Herbstreit and Brent Musberger pick a Big East contest over a USC or Oklahoma game, but that's the case this Saturday when the UConn Huskies (4-4 7-1 ATS) visit the No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (8-0 6-2 ATS) on prime time this Saturday (8PM, ABC regional).
There is more than enough motivation for the home team to make a statement on national TV with the Bearcats sitting fifth in the BCS. Combine that with the sour taste of last year's 40-16 loss to the Huskies and you can see why Herbstreit and company are making the visit.
Pike or no Pike
The biggest concern coming into Saturday is the status of Cincinnati QB Tony Pike (doubtful as of Friday) who has missed the last two games with an arm injury.
But even without their star, the Bearcats have not missed a beat offensively thanks to the impressive performance of backup Zach Collaros. In decisive victories over Louisville and Syracuse, the sophomore completed 82 percent of his passes on 548 yards and 7 TDs. Collaros is also a threat on the ground with 213 rushing yards and 2 TDs this year.
Regardless of QB, UConn will have to contend with an explosive offense that has outscored Big East opponents 150-49 in four contests and ranks 10th in the nation in passing.
Cincy’s Mardy Gilyard leads all receivers with 53 receptions, 734 yards and 9 TDs, but UConn’s D will have to play him honestly. The running back combo of Isaiah Pead and Jacob Ramsey is not statistically impressive, but both their abilities to break for big runs in Brian Kellly's no huddle spread, has allowed for the passing game to make big plays.
Fourth-quarter heartbreak
UConn has been victim to late game-winning plays in all their losses this season. In last week's 28-24 loss to Rutgers, the Huskies gave up an 81-yard pass with 22 seconds left on the clock. Before that against West Virginia, Noel Devine scored the winner on a 56-yard run.
In their first two defeats against North Carolina and Pitt, UConn held the lead going into the fourth quarter, but they failed to score a single point and gave up the game winning plays in the closing minute.
Frazier's second chance
What is often overlooked with the Bearcats is their defense which has only given up 12.9 points per game this season.
Under the direction of defensive coordinator Bob Diaco, the Bearcats have taken a more aggressive approach with a new 3-4 defense and it’s resulted in 29 sacks.
UConn will need a big game from running backs Andre Dixon and Jordan Todman in order to open up the passing game. They have combined for 1,374 yards and 15 TDs.
QB Zach Frazier has a second chance to prove himself after UConn lost starter Cody Endres for the season with a separated shoulder. Frazier was the starter at the beginning of the year, but lost his job after two horrible games in which he threw four interceptions.
Things did not look any better last week with a 45.7 percent completion rate and three INTs.
The line
The spread for the game opened at -16.5 in favor of Cincinnati and now sits at -17 at most books.
Even without Pike the Bearcats have been double digit favorites the last two weeks resulting in paydays both times. They also boast a decent overall ATS (against the spread) record at 6-2 and remain 4-0 ATS against Big East opponents.
UConn is an impressive 7-1 ATS, though the lone loss came last week as 7-point favorites against Rutgers.
Weather
A low of 47 is expected at night and wind could play a factor with SSW winds (end zone to end zone at Nippert) expected at 18 MPH. This will have to be considered with UConn's kicking game as Dave Teggart is 3-for-8 in the last three games.
Other notes:
In last year's contest Cincinnati was a 3-point favorite. The previous meeting at Nippert Stadium in 2007 resulted in a 27-3 Bearcat victory over then No. 16 ranked UConn. The Huskies were 6-point favorites.
Cincinnati is 4-1 overall in this series
The total has remained steady at 51.5 at most books. Cincinnati games have gone under five times in the last six games, with an average of 46.8 points being scored in those games.
UConn is in the opposite direction on totals, with five of their last six games going over the total. However this is the first time this season that the Huskies have had a total over 50 points.
Last year's total of 44 went over with 56 points scored.
Road to Recovery
By SportsPic
Off an embarrassing 47-20 setback dashing hopes of an eighth straight Pac-10 title the wounded Trojans look to recover this weekend when they visit Tempe Arizona for a clash with Sun Devils. The Trojans should feel pretty good about their chances of getting back in the win column, beating Arizona State has been all but a sure thing for the USC as they've won nine straight meetings (7-2 ATS) by an average 20.1 points per game. Hard to envision USC losing to Arizona State after the poor showing the past weekend. Trojans will be fired up knowing they're a perfect 10-0 (6-4 ATS) following a loss and haven't suffered consecutive defeats since week six & seven of the 2001 campaign. Sun Devils 0-13 at home against opponents in the top 15 adds fuel USC is on the road to recovery. Spread-wise USC has spit out cash in November like an ATM Machine (21-5 ATS) however it is well to note Trojans have had a Devil of a time covering vs Arizona State the past four seasons (1-3 ATS) and enter this contest 1-7 ATS last eight vs Pac-10 foes, 1-5 ATS last six as DD road favorites.
Saturday's Top games
Georgia Tech won, covered last six games; they're 4-1 vs spread as faves this year, 1-1 at home- they outscored last two foes 49-6 on second half, as running game takes its toll. Wake Forest lost last three games, last two by total of four points; they're 0-3 on road, losing by 3-35-3. Deacons are 1-2 as dog, 0-2 on road- they lost 28-27 at home to Miami last week after leading 17-0. Underdog covered four of last five series games.
Duke becomes bowl eligible with win here; they've won last three games, is 3-1 as underdog this year, with one loss by more than 8 points. UNC is 1-3 vs spread as favorite this year, with one of three I-A wins by more than three points (31-17, ECU). ACC home favorites are 7-11 vs spread. Carolina won five in row, 11 of last 12 in series, but Duke covered three of last four. Three of Tar Heels' last four games stayed under the total.
South Carolina lost four of last five visits to Arkansas; favorites are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games. Razorbacks are 1-4 in SEC, giving up an average of 32 ppg; they're 0-2 vs spread as favorite this year. SEC home favorites are 6-14 vs spread in '09. Gamecocks scored total of 33 points in last three games, but they're 4-1 vs spread as dog this season, with losses by 4-14-18 points. Over is 3-0 in Arkansas home games.
Iowa State gets QB Arnaud back here; they're 5-2 vs spread in last seven games, 2-2 as underdog, but they scored total of 19 points in last couple games, beating Nebraska 9-7 in game they were +8 in turnovers. OSU is 2-0 on road (36-31 A&M/34-7 Baylor); they're 3-3 as favorite this year. Under is 4-1-1 in Cyclones' last six games. Favorites covered the last five series games, with Cowboys losing last two visits here, 37-10/28-14.
Navy lost 11 of last 12 games with Notre Dame, but is 7-5 vs spread in those games; Middies won five of last six games- they're 1-1 as dog this year- four of their last five games were decided by exactly three points. Notre Dame won five of last six games but failed to cover six games in a row as a favorite. After going 6-22 passing at Pitt, Middies are 15-28 in air in last six games combined. Three of last four Navy games went over/
Favorite is 5-1-2 vs spread in last eight LSU-Alabama series; Tigers won their last four visits here, and are 3-0 on road this year, with wins by 8-4-7 points. Alabama held five of last six opponents to 19 or less points; they're 5-3 vs spread as favorite, 2-0 as single digit favorite. SEC home favorites are 6-14 vs spread. Last four LSU games, four of last five Bama games stayed under the total. Bama is just 12 for last 44 on third down.
Kansas lost last three games, giving up 34-35-42 points, outscored 49-14 in second half of last two games; Jayhawks won last three series games, scoring 40.3 ppg; their 30-24 win in last visit here snapped a five-game skid in Little Apple. K-State won two Big 12 home games 62-14/20-6; they've run two kicks back for TDs in the last three games. Big 12 home underdogs are 4-6 vs spread. Over is 3-1 in last four K-State games.
Oklahoma won last four games vs Nebraska by average score of 36-15; Sooners' three losses this year are by 1-1-3 points- none of their wins are by less than 12. Oklahoma is 2-3-1 vs spread as favorite. Huskers scored total of 27 points in last three games; their '09 losses are by 1-21-2 pts. Seven of eight Nebraska games, six of seven Oklahoma games went under the total. Huskers didn't scored a second half point in last two games.
Favorite is 8-3 vs spread in last 11 Ohio State-Penn State games; OSU is 2-4 in last six visits to Happy Valley- they're 7-1 vs spread in last eight games, winning last two games 38-7/45-0 since losing at Purdue in their last road game. Penn State outscored last four opponents 61-3 in second half; they're 1-4 vs spread as home favorite this season. Under is 6-1-1 in Penn State games. Big 11 home favorites are 9-9 vs spread this season.
Fresno State won its four games over Idaho by an average score of 39-16, but those Vandals aren't these Vandals; Idaho is 7-2, and was underdog in seven of nine games. Idaho allowed 706 rushing yards, 104 points in last two games, as defense wears down, but they're 4-0 at home in the Kibbie Dome this year (2-0 as home dog). Fresno won last four games, winning 42-17 at Hawai'i, 34-3 at New Mexico State; they're 3-1 as a favorite.
Oregon State won eight of last ten against Cal, winning last four visits to Berkeley (dogs 4-0 vs spread); Beavers won three of last four games, are 1-1 as dog this year- they scored an average of 32 ppg in last five games. Cal scored 39 ppg in winning last three games; they're 2-4 vs spread as underdog, 1-1 at home. Pac-10 home favorites are 7-7 against the spread so far this season. Over is 3-1-1 in Oregon State's last five games.
Oregon won seven games in row, scoring 42+ points in four of last five games; Ducks are 4-1 vs spread as favorite, 2-0 on road- they won seven in row over Stanford (6-1 vs spread) winning last three visits to Farm by 24-24-3 points, but Oregon is on upset alert with road game after upset of USC last week. Stanford won, covered all four home games; they are 1-2 as dog in '09. Pac-10 home underdogs are 6-5 against the spread.
Florida State's longtime defensive coordinator Andrews announced he is retiring this week; not sure what effect that has on a young FSU defense that gave up 39.3 ppg in last three games. Seminoles are 2-0 as underdog this year, winning both games SU- their '09 losses are by 4-10-7-5 pts. Clemson is 3-2 as favorite; they played I-AA team last week; Tigers are 3-1 in last four series games. FSU was favored in last 12 series games.
USC is on road for 4th time in five weeks, at Arizona State squad that is 2-1 as a dog this year, but lost last nine series games (2-6-1 vs spread) to Trojans. USC has been favored in every '09 game but is 1-6 vs spread in last seven; they're 1-4 as road fave, losing in Seattle, Eugene, winning the other three by 3-27-7. Under is 5-0-1 in last six ASU games, but USC's last three went over the total. Pac-10 home underdogs are 6-5 vs spread.
Other games
-- Michigan State lost last two games, doesn't have I-A win by 11+ pts. Four of their last five games stayed under total. Big 11 home favorites are 7-11 out of conference; MAC road dogs are 16-9.
-- Cincinnati's last three wins are by 17+ points; five of their last six games stayed under. UConn is 4-0 vs spread as an underdog this season. Big East home favorites are 3-4 in league play.
-- Pitt won its last four games; they're 2-1 as a favorite in '09. Syracuse lost 28-7 at Penn State in its only previous road game this year. Last three Syracuse games, three of last four Pitt games stayed under total.
-- Underdog covered nine of last 11 Northwestern-Iowa games, with the dog winning last three meetings SU; Wildcats are 2-2 as dog, with losses by 3-11-10-21 points. Hawkeyes are 3-2 as a favorite.
-- Illinois is 1-4 vs spread as an underdog, with one INT in its last six games. Minnesota is 4-1 when it allows 24 or less points; they gave up 72 in last two games; six of their last seven games went over total.
-- West Virginia is 1-5 vs spread in last six games, with only one '09 win by more than 17 points. Louisville is 2-4 as an underdog, 1-3 away from home. West Virginia plays unbeaten Cincinnati on ESPN next Friday.
-- NC State lost last four games, allowing 146 points in last three- their last five games went over total. Maryland lost three in row, scoring total of 22 points in last two. ACC home favorites are 7-11 against spread.
-- Indiana lost five of last six games, even though they led last three tilts at half by 6-11-14 points; they're 4-3 as the dog, 1-1 at home. Badgers are 1-1 on road this season (31-28 Minnesota/13-31 Ohio State).
-- Baylor lost its last four games, all by 10+ points; they're 1-4-1 vs the spread in last six games. Last five Bear games stayed under total. Big 12 home underdogs are 4-6. Missouri is 2-1 as a favorite this year.
-- Florida is in Georgia/South Carolina sandiwch; LB Spikes won't play here vs Vanderbilt team that lost last five games (1-4 vs spread). Under is 6-2 in Commodores' last eight games, 5-1 in Florida's last six.
-- BYU is 3-3 as favorite this year, with road wins by 51-38-10 points. Wyoming scored 10-0-0-10 in its four losses; they're 4-1-1 vs spread as a dog this year. MWC home underdogs are 4-5 against spread.
-- Rice is 0-8 this year (1-7 vs spread); they're 0-4 as home dog, losing at home by 19-17-49-42 points. SMU lost only time it was favored in '09; they have one win this season by more than eight points.
-- Erratic UTEP lost three of four times they were favored this year, are 2-2 SU when underdog; they're -6 in turnovers last three games. Tulane lost last four games by 21-28-37-42 points; they're 1-6 as underdog.
--Central Florida had short week after last-minute win on Sunday night. C-USA road dogs are 6-10 out of league. Texas won last two games by combined score of 82-21. Big 12 home favorites are 12-9 vs spread.
-- Underdog won five of last six Kent-Akron games SU; Flashes won last three games, covered last six- they held last three foes under 300 yards of offense. Akron lost its last six games (1-5 against spread).
-- Air Force is 2-1-1 as favorite this year, Army 2-4 as dog, 1-2 on road. Falcons scored 17 or less points in four of last five games. Five of last six Army games stayed under total. MWC home faves are 2-5 vs spread.
-- TCU needs to win by as much as possible so they don't slip in BCS standings; they won last three games by combined score of 123-13. San Diego State won three of last four games, are 4-0 vs spread as a dog.
-- Utah won last five games but covered one of last five, with all five of games staying under total. New Mexico is 0-8 this year, 2-6 vs spread. MWC home favorites are 4-6 vs spread in league play.
-- Washington State lost last five games but covered five of last six due to big spreads they get; they've covered three games this year they lost by 21+ points. Arizona is 1-3 against the spread as a favorite.
-- UCLA lost last five games, giving up 32.7 ppg in last three; they're 1-1 as favorite in '09. Washington had last week off after losing four of last five games. Huskies are 4-3 against the spread as an underdog in '09.
-- Texas A&M won last two games by 22-25 points after losing 62-14 at K-State; they're 3-2 as a favorite. Over is 5-1-1 in Aggies' last seven tilts. Colorado lost four of last five games, scoring 6-17 pts last two games.
-- Miami's last two games were decided by total of four points; they are 2-3 as favorite this year. Virginia is 3-0 vs spread on road, losing 37-34 at So Miss. Four of last five Virginia games stayed under the total.
-- Memphis is 1-6 vs I-A teams; they're 1-4 vs spread as dog. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. SEC home favorites are 10-8 vs spread out of conference; C-USA road underdogs are 6-10.
-- Houston won, covered all four games since losing at UTEP; they're 3-1 as favorite this year. Tulsa lost last three games by 7-4-14 points' they're 1-1 as underdog. C-USA home underdogs are 5-8 against the spread.
- - Michigan lost last four games vs I-A teams; they have zero takeaways in last three games, are -12 in turnovers last four games. Purdue is 3-2 as underdog this year. Big 11 home favorites are 9-9 against spread.
-- UNLV lost five of last six games, with last four losses by 20+ points. Colorado State lost last six games, allowing 31+ points in five of the six. Under is 4-1-1 in Rams' last six games. MWC home sides are 8-11.
-- Utah State covered six of last eight games but is just 1-6 vs I-A teams, beating La Tech 23-21 at home. Aggies are 0-5 on road; they're 1-5 as a road favorite since '01. Hawai'i lost last six games (2-4 vs spread).
-- Florida Atlantic's awful kicking game cost them in home loss last week three of their last four games went over total. UAB is 0-4 this year when they score less than 30 points. C-USA non-league home faves are 3-5.
-- North Texas snapped six-game skid with 68-49 home win last week; their last seven games went over total. UL-Monroe allowed 35+ points in three of last four games. Sun Belt home teams are 9-10 vs spread.
-- Western Kentucky is Sun Belt doormat, giving up 62-68 points in last two games; they're 2-5 vs spread as underdog, with last four games over total. Troy State won last six games, covering five of them.
-- Home side won last seven UL-Lafayette-Arkansas State games; ULL lost last three visits here by 31-3-6 points. State lost five of last six tilts; they're 1-1 as a favorite. Last three ASU games stayed under total.
-- Middle Tennessee won five of last seven games; they're 3-0 vs spread as a favorite. Florida International split last four games; they scored 30+ points in four of last six. Sun Belt home favorites are 8-7 vs spread.
Tips and Trends
LSU at Alabama
LSU: The Tigers are 7-1 SU, with it's lone loss to Florida. Since that loss, they have outscored their opposition 73-10. This Tigers defense is remarkable, as they've only allowed more than 13 points 1 time all season. 6 of the 7 games LSU has played have gone UNDER the posted total. LB Kelvin Sheppard leads LSU in tackles with 70 tackles. LSU will look to RB Charles Scott to move the chains. They ran for more than 265 YDS against their last opponent, Tulane. The Tigers have won the last four meetings in Tuscaloosa.
Road team is 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
Under is 9-2 in LSU's last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5-10 points
Key Injuries - P Derek Helton (hip) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 10
Alabama (-7.5, O/U 40): Top 10 showdown between two teams that control their destiny to the BCS Title game. Alabama comes off their bye week at the perfect time. The Tide have lost their last two games ATS, including a near loss to Tennessee in their last game. QB Greg McElroy leads this Tide offense, an offense that is in decline. 22, 20, and 12 are the points scored by this Tide offense over the past 3 weeks. An effective passing game will open up holes for RB Mark Ingram. Ingram leads the SEC with 125 yards per game (6.6 per carry average) and eight touchdowns. The strength of this team is their defense, which allows 11.4 points per game. Alabama will be looking to beat LSU at home for the first time since 1999.
Alabama is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.
Under is 7-1 in last 8 conference games.
Key Injuries - TE Colin Peek (knee) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Ohio State at Penn State
Ohio St: The Buckeyes are 6-2 overall, and an impressive 7-1 ATS. The visitor has won the last two meetings between these teams. The Buckeyes are led by QB Terrelle Pryor, who spurned Penn St. before signing with Ohio St. Pryor directs an offense that leads the Big Ten in scoring at 30 PPG. RB Dan Herron is healthy, and he makes this offense even more diverse. The Buckeyes will continue to depend on their opportunistic defense to win games. The Buckeyes are 2nd in the Big Ten in forced turnovers, with 24 on the season. The Buckeyes will be playing only their 3rd road game of the season
Ohio St is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games.
Under is 4-0 in last 4 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - (PK) Aaron Pettrey (knee) is out.
(LT) Mike Adams (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 13.
Penn St (-5, O/U 39): Penn State will play its 300th (241-58) game in Beaver Stadium on Saturday. Since losing to Iowa, Penn St. has won 5 straight games, also winning ATS in all 5. The Nittany Lions have scored 34 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. This dynamic offense is led by QB Daryll Clark, who can beat you with his arm or feet. His main targets are WR Derek Moye and Chaz Powell. This defense is anchored by LB Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee, as well as DT Jared Odrick. Only once this season has Penn St. given up more than 20 points. That was to Iowa, where they gave up 21 points in their lone loss of the season.
Home team is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Penn St is 4-0 ATS in last 4 games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - RB Stephfon Green (ankle) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)