CFB: Streaks, Tips, Notes!!
Sportspic.com
Auburn Tigers vs South Carolina Gamecocks
The Auburn Tigers taking care of mighty Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa this past week maintaining their position in the fight for the BCS national title game. Just completing a perfect regular season (12-0, 8-4 ATS) in what many believe is the nation’s toughest conference the Tigers must now beat South Carolina in the SEC title game at the Georgia Dome for a trip to the National Title game being held in Glendale, Arizona January 10th.
Lead by Cam Newton (2254 PY, 24TD, 1336 RY, 18TD) Auburn racked up 41.6 PPG and were 8-0 (7-1 ATS) in the conference defeating rivals by an average 10.3 points/game. Meanwhile, Gamecocks (9-3, 7-5 ATS) behind it's one-two punch of RB Marcus Lattimore (1114 Yds, 17TD), WR Alshon Jeffery (1351 Yds, 8TD) recorded 33.2 PPG overall, 27.8 PPG vs SEC rivals ending conference play at 5-3 (4-4 ATS).
Auburn claimed a 35-27 home victory in the regular season encounter, but had to battle back from a 20-7 deficit to do so marking Tigers fifth straight victory over Gamecocks (3-2 ATS).
South Carolina making its first-ever appearance in the title game have opened 5-point underdogs to derail Tigers.
Trends of interest: South Carolina is 10-9-1 ATS in the underdog roll, 0-9 ATS after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games. Auburn has an 8-2 ATS streak going as favorites of six or less points. Auburn is on a 1-6 ATS skid playing on turf
CFB: Streaks, Tips, Notes!!
Sportspic.com
Florida State vs. Virginia Tech Dec
Florida State closed regular season with a three game win streak (2-1 ATS) including a dominating 31-7 win over its longtime in-state rival Florida moving the mark to 9-3 (7-5 ATS) overall, 6-2 (4-4 ATS) within the conference.
'Noles balanced offense led by quarterback Christian Ponder averaged 31.7 PPG split between 213.3 passing, 177.4 rushing yards/game. On the other side, 'Noles gave up an average of 17.8 PPG the nations 11th best scoring defense.
As for Virginia Tech, Hokies ripped off ten straight wins (9-1 ATS) to close regular season ending at 10-2 (9-3 ATS) with a perfect 8-0 (7-1 ATS) record in ACC play.
Hokies run first offense lead by RB Darren Evans (744 RY 10TD) and QB Tyrod Taylor (613 TY, 4TD) racked up 34.8 PPG on 211.4 rushing yards. Taylor also notched 2,258 passing yards and 20 majors in guiding Hokies.
Virginia Tech has won two of last three title appearance losing only to Florida State (27-22) in '2005. Hokies looking for a little pay-back have been pegged 4 point favorites. Trends of interest - Hokies have a 14-3 ATS streak going as favorites, have a 11-5 ATS stretch playing teams with a winning record. 'Noles are 8-1 ATS as underdogs of six or less but carry into the contest a 4-8 ATS skid following two or more straight up wins.
ACC Championship Game
By Judd Hall
A program’s renaissance and retribution from early season foibles are at stake this Saturday in the ACC title game between Florida State (9-3 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) and the Hokies at Bank of American Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Virginia Tech (10-2 SU, 9-2 ATS) comes into this contest with no newfound awe since it’s its fourth trip to event and third in four years. In fact, the Hokies no doubt expect to win their third ACC title in four seasons after making short work of Boston College in 2007 and 2008.
The Seminoles actually captured the first ACC title game 27-22 against Virginia Tech in 2005. Since then, Florida State hasn’t really been close to winning the Atlantic Division. And they still needed Maryland’s help against the Wolfpack to win the title this season for Jimbo Fisher.
When it comes to the sportsbooks, they’re siding with the Hokies by making them four-point favorites with a total of 52. Gamblers that want to back the Garnet and Gold to pick up the outright win can cash in on a plus-155 (risk $100 to win $155) money line wager.
Expectations weren’t terribly high in Tallahassee this season. Jimbo Fisher was finally taking over for an icon in Bobby Bowden. And it sure did look like Bowden had almost successfully ran the program into the ground in his last four seasons at the helm. All Fisher has done is post a solid mark in his first campaign, guiding the Seminoles embarrass both Miami and Florida in the same year. That alone should make any FSU fan happy.
Florida State has been quite effective on the attack this season, averaging 31.7 points per game. They’ve been able to find the end zone this season because of a strong running trio of Chris Thompson, Ty Jones and Jermaine Thomas. That group has helped the ‘Noles average 177.4 yards per game on the ground this year. But Thomas is out indefinitely with a knee injury and Jones is listed as “questionable” with an ankle problem.
The loss of two good running backs means that Christian Ponder will be called upon to move the ball with his arm. Ponder has had his brain cramps on occasion this season, but his body of work is good: 62.2 completion percentage, 2,038 yards and 20 touchdowns. Although, he did reinjure his elbow last week against the Gators, so it will be interesting to see how Ponder fares under center.
VegasInsider.com’s Bruce Marshall doesn’t believe that Ponder has to shoulder the entire burden because of Florida State’s defense. “You have to acknowledge the positives Jimbo Fisher has brought to FSU, especially adding Mark Stoops as defensive coordinator. Marshall continues, “All he has done is change the personality of the ‘Noles stop unit that had gone soft the past couple of years. Florida State now has a real pass rush this season and has won a few games with their defense, which I see as the major difference from the past couple of years.”
The Seminoles don’t get scored on too much this season, ranking 11th in the nation with 17.8 PPG allowed. But where Stoops has really made this defense become a force is against the run. Last year, the ‘Noles were 108th in rush defense by giving up 204.6 YPG. They’re allowing 123.7 YPG to rank 23rd in the nation.
For Florida State to succeed in this game, they’ll need that defense to come up huge against the Hokies’ running game. Virginia Tech has been extremely strong running the ball this season, averaging 211.4 rushing YPG. That ability to move the ball on the ground has helped out a lot in the red zone, where the Hokies have scored 90 percent of the time. Of course it helps when you have a running back duo like Darren Evans (748, 10 TDs) and David Wilson (573, 5 TDs). And that doesn’t take Tyrod Taylor’s attributes into account.
“I think this is the best offense Beamer has ever had with the Hokies, as Tyrod Taylor has matured into a true leader as a senior, reducing his mistakes and making plays when needed. Taylor's ability to escape can negate some of Stoops' pressure tactics; FSU will be reluctant to blitz, which it has done effectively most of this season,” says Marshall. Our expert handicapper Marshall speaks the truth on Taylor this season. All Virginia Tech’s signal caller has done is throw for 2,258 yards, run for another 613 yards and has scored 24 total touchdowns.
Those numbers are a far cry from what everyone thought might happen to the Hokies after opening the 2010 campaign with losses to Boise State and a stunner to a James Madison squad that is having a less-than-stellar season in the Football Championship Subdivision. But those setbacks have helped Virginia Tech become a covering machine. All they’ve done since losing to the Dukes is go 10-0 SU and a fantastic 9-1 ATS. And these weren’t close covers for Frank Beamer’s squad…oh, no…they’ve been covering as at least a 20-point fave on five occasions.
Even though the Seminoles won the opening ACC Championship Game, this contest has largely been the domain of the Coastal Division winners, evidenced by a 3-0 SU and ATS run over the last three seasons.
Pouring a little more water on Florida State’s flame is the fact that underdogs have failed to cover the past three title games, while the ‘over’ has gone 2-1.
The Hokies simply don’t lose much when favored against ACC foes, having posted a 23-3 SU mark over the last three seasons. And gamblers have consistently covered the number when playing those same league opponents as they’re 17-9 ATS.
As strong as those numbers are, Florida State is just as capable as an underdog. The Seminoles have gone 5-3 SU and ATS when posted as pups in ACC affairs dating back to 2007. What is even more impressive is that the ‘over’ cashed tickets in all eight of those games.
Don’t forget that you can catch this game on ESPN at 7:45 p.m. EST.
VegasInsider.com
Just Chillin November 2010
By Marc Lawrence
Weekends are the reward for a job well done. The time to kick back, relax and let it all hang out. And if you're the kind who just can't make it to the weekend you'll be glad to know that in Jimmy Buffet's world its 5:00 o'clock somewhere and its Margaritaville. No stress. No strain. Just a cold one or two, to take the edge off.
For workaholics, however, chilling is just another word for the office air conditioner being set too low. Weekends are a time to button up all the loose ends and catch up on the work not quite completed. For college football teams, chillin' is a week off during the season. It's a time to heal battered bodies and take a breather from the physical pounding and pressure of knocking heads with the enemy.
When it comes to dealing with a week of rest in college football, one thing is absolutely for certain. Teams playing at home with the combination of rest and revenge are definitely the right side of the game. That confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, all teams in this role are 424-360-11 ATS - or a 54% winning proposition. Better yet, bring them in off a confidence-building win and they improve mightily to 215-157-7 (57.7%) ATS.
In case you missed it, last week found Minnesota taking the edge off in dramatic fashion in a stunning 27-24 win as 15-point home dogs against Iowa.
Knowing we had created a near-58% winning angle based on 379 results, I went in search of looking for a nice subset that could win in a breeze. What I found was simple. By using the same recipe I found that if I were to -
PLAY ON any college conference home dog or pick in its Last Home Game of the season that is playing off a win with rest and revenge it would result in a cool 26-9 ATS wining situation. To that I say, hey bartender, set me up with another one! We can make it an ice-cold one simply by bringing the opponent in off a SU and ATS win as our angle zooms up to 20-3 ATS in this role. Now that's what I call a genuine thirst-quenching libation.
FYI: This week the Cougars of Washington State figure to be chillin’ when they host archrival Washington.
And as you might suspect there is a super-cool 20-0 ATS perfect twist to this season ending party. I’ll keep that to myself.
College Football Odds: USC at UCLA
By: Joe Freda
The Southern California Trojans and UCLA Bruins each have 1-4 spread records in their last five contests. Saturday night’s college football slate has the Pacific-10 Conference rivals squaring off at Rose Bowl Stadium, where UCLA returns home after dropping two straight road spankings.
Sports books opened Southern Cal as a nine-point road favorite, with early Bruins action driving the number south to 6 ½. Betting shops first set the ‘total’ at 54, with initial wagers mixed.
The Trojans blew a late lead in last Saturday’s 20-16 defeat as 4 ½-point home favorites against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. USC allowed Notre Dame’s Robert Hughes to run in a five-yard score with 2:23 remaining after the Trojans’ Joe Houston hit a 37-yard field goal to give his squad a 16-13 advantage.
Southern Cal’s Mitch Mustain passed for 177 yards, completing 20-of-37 attempts. The senior quarterback tossed his first interception in his first start of the season replacing the injured Matt Barkley.
The Trojans’ defense allowed 296 yards, with 149 coming through the air. USC’s linebacker duo of Devon Kennard and Chris Galippo grabbed one interception each, while safety Marshall Jones recorded the team’s third.
The tight battle’s combined 36 points plunged ‘under’ the ‘total’ of 51. Southern Cal was penalized eight times for 47 yards, while the Fighting Irish were flagged only once.
USC is 4-2 ATS in its first six road games, with the ‘total’ going an even 3-3. Lane Kiffin’s crew has notched 32.8 PPG in that stretch, while allowing 404.7 YPG.
UCLA’s latest defeat came in last Friday’s 55-34 setback as a 13-point road dog against the Arizona State Sun Devils. The Bruins saw their 17-0 lead in the first quarter get erased by halftime, going on to trail by as many as 28 points.
Bruins quarterback Richard Brehaut connected on 33-of-56 passes for 321 yards. The sophomore notched a season-high four touchdowns, finishing with three through the air while carrying in one.
UCLA’s Johnathan Frankin logged 73 yards of rushing on 14 carries. The Los Angeles native failed to reach the end zone for the first time in three games.
The Bruins’ defense gave up a sizable 595 yards, while allowing Arizona State to move the chains on 8-of-16 third down spots. Linebacker Sean Westgate notched his squad’s sole sack, setting up a fourth-and-long situation which resulted in a blocked punt.
The shootout’s combined 89 points soared above the ‘total’ of 49, ending a 2-0 ‘under’ streak from the Bruins’ prior two games. UCLA’s offense notched 30 first downs in its 32 minutes of possession.
The Bruins are 2-3 ATS in their first five home dates, with the ‘over’ also going 2-3. Rick Neuheisel’s squad has rushed for 227.2 YPG in that span, while giving up 23.8 PPG.
UCLA is 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings against the Trojans, with the ‘under’ cashing at 5-1. The Bruins have mustered only seven points in each of the most recent three matchups, including last November’s 28-7 loss as 13-point road dogs.
Barkley (ankle) is questionable for this contest as are four USC defensive backs–Brian Baucham, T.J. McDonald, Tyron Smith and Torin Harris. Two UCLA defensive lineman, Cassius Marsh and Andrew Abbott, are questionable with concussions.
Saturday’s kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. (PT). The weather forecast in Pasadena calls for a low of 46 degrees, with calm winds and a 30-percent chance of showers.
Southern Cal will await its postseason fate amongst a tight conference race, presently tied with Arizona, Oregon State and Washington for third place at 4-4. UCLA enters the rivalry game without bowl eligibility, currently clinging to the group’s ninth position with a 2-6 mark.
Odds favor Auburn in SEC Championship
By: Stephen Nover
Come from 24 points down to end Alabama’s 20-game win streak in Tuscaloosa? No problem for the top-ranked Auburn Tigers.
Trailing in eight games this season, that’s no problem either for the 12-0 Tigers. Neither apparently are NCAA investigations into the recruitment of Cam Newton.
All Newton has done in his last two games is account for eight touchdowns. Perhaps Newton doesn’t win the Heisman Trophy this season, but no player has been more valuable to his team.
Newton’s heroics have helped put Auburn into the SEC Championship Game against 18th-ranked South Carolina Saturday at 1 p.m. PT (CBS) in the Georgia Dome. A win by the Tigers would surely put them in the national championship game.
College football oddsmakers opened the Tigers as five-point favorites against the Gamecocks.
South Carolina is playing its best ball of the season having won five of its last six, going 4-2 ATS. This will be the Gamecocks’ most important game in school history.
The Gamecocks are off a dominating 29-7 road win at arch-rival Clemson where they were 2 ½-point favorites. The combined 36 points dipped ‘under’ the 45-point total.
Stephen Garcia threw two touchdown passes and star receiver Alshon Jeffery turned in his seventh 100-yard receiving effort of the season with five catches for 141 yards and a touchdown.
South Carolina is 9-3. This is only the third time the Gamecocks have won nine games in their 117 seasons of football with the last nine-win season occurring in 2001.
While Auburn has covered its past five SEC games and generated national headlines, this has been a remarkable year for the Gamecocks and their coach, Steve Spurrier. The Gamecocks defeated Alabama by 14 points, knocked off Florida on the road for the first time winning by 22 points and scored 69 points against Troy.
Garcia and Jeffery, along with freshman running back Marcus Lattimore, make the Gamecocks difficult to defend. Garcia is completing 65.9 percent of his throws for 2,646 yards with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Lattimore has rushed for 1,114 yards and accounted for 19 touchdowns. Jeffery has hauled in 75 passes for 1,351 yards and scored eight touchdowns.
Auburn’s weakness is pass defense where it ranks 106th. The Tigers are letting foes complete nearly 65 percent of their throws while allowing 21 touchdown passes with only eight interceptions.
Newton, though, has kept the Tigers unbeaten throwing for 2,254 and rushing for another 1,336 yards while accounting for an incredible 40 touchdowns. He’s the leading rusher in the SEC and has the second-best quarterback rating in the country next to Kellen Moore of Boise State.
The 250-pound Newton was at his best when the Tigers defeated South Carolina, 35-27, as three-point home favorites back on Sept. 25. Newton rushed for 176 yards and three touchdowns, while also passing for two more additional touchdowns.
The Tigers rushed for 336 yards against the Gamecocks, who entered the matchup having allowed an SEC-low 60 yards per game on the ground. The Tigers trailed 20-7 at one point. The combined 62 points went ‘over’ the 49-point total.
Jeffery caught eight passes for 192 yards, but Lattimore was held to 33 yards on 14 carries and Garcia was pulled in the fourth quarter for Connor Shaw, who was picked off twice trying to drive in for the tying score.
It was the fifth consecutive time the Tigers have defeated the Gamecocks.
Newton threw for three touchdowns and ran in another touchdown in Auburn’s 28-27 victory against Alabama. The Tigers were 4 ½-point road ‘dogs. The combined 55 points dipped ‘under’ the 58 ½-point total.
The ‘over’ has cashed in five of Auburn’s last seven games and in seven of South Carolina’s last 10 matchups. The ‘over’ also has cashed in five of South Carolina’s past seven SEC contests.
NCAAF Odds: Nebraska, Oklahoma meet one more time
By: Willie Bee
The Nebraska Cornhuskers and Oklahoma Sooners have provided a lot of footage for highlight reels over the years going back to their great matchups in the old Big Eight Conference. The annual rivalry faded some when the Big 12 formed in 1996, leaving the two schools to meet just twice every four seasons.
The sheen will be back when the rivalry is renewed once more Saturday night in Arlington, Texas where the two schools collide in the Big 12 Championship matchup at Cowboys Stadium. It's Nebraska's final game as a member of the Big 12 before the 'Huskers join the Big Ten in 2011. Given the acrimonious atmosphere surrounding their departure, they'd like nothing more than to exit the conference as champions and punch a ticket to the Fiesta Bowl in January.
If Nebraska is going out a winner, it will have to do so against the college football odds. Oklahoma is listed as a 3½-point favorite at most offshore outlets with Saturday's total set at 54 points.
Nebraska capped a 10-2 season with a 45-17 win versus Colorado last week to sew up the Big 12 North title. The Cornhuskers easily covered the 18-point spread with a dominating performance in which they controlled the clock by nearly a 2:1 margin against the Buffaloes, converting 11-of-17 third down plays on offense.
Sophomore Rex Burkhead starred for the 'Huskers in the victory, rushing for 101 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries and adding two touchdown passes, one of the half-back option variety and the other as the pivot out of the wildcat formation.
The triumph stopped a three-game losing streak for Nebraska at the window, leaving the Cornhuskers with a 5-7 record against the spread. Bo Pelini's troops were without freshman Taylor Martinez for the game, with the quarterback nursing an ankle injury that was aggravated in a 9-6 loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago.
Oklahoma (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) arrives at Cowboys Stadium by virtue of their win over the Cowboys last week, the Oklahoma State Cowboys, that is. The Sooners broke a 24-all tie entering the fourth quarter with 23 points in the final stanza via two bombs and three field goals for the 47-41 win over OSU who was favored by 2½. Oklahoma rolled up 588 yards of offense in the wild affair, 468 coming through the air with Landry Jones completing 37-of-62 passes and overcoming three picks with four TD passes.
The Sooners' win forced a three-way tie in the Big 12 South with Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. Oklahoma earned the right to represent the division by virtue of its higher BCS ranking where the Sooners sit ninth entering this week. The Cowboys are 14th with the Aggies 18th while Nebraska is listed in the No. 13 slot heading into the conference championship.
This will be the second time OU and Nebraska have met for the Big 12 title. The Sooners topped the 'Huskers in the 2006 game, 21-7, as 3½-point favorites with the contest at Arrowhead Stadium in KC staying well below the 45-point game total. The old rivals split their eight regular season meetings as Big 12 opponents with the 'under' 4-2 in the last six meetings, including that '06 championship.
One of those 'unders' came in the most recent meeting at Nebraska in Nov. 2009. The Cornhuskers slipped past Oklahoma, 10-3, in a defensive struggle that closed with the Sooners 4½-point chalk.
Oklahoma is appearing in the Big 12 championship for a seventh time with Nebraska making its sixth trip to the game.
The Cornhuskers, heavy 14-point underdogs, lost a controversial 13-12 decision last December to Texas in the '09 Big 12 Championship. You can bet the referees will be the focus for Husker Nation in this one after that contest was fueled by more controversy surrounding the men in the striped shirts calling Nebraska games this season.
Kickoff is 5 p.m. PT with ABC providing the pictures. Weather should be fine with mostly clear skies and a temperature in the low-to-mid 60s for the start of the game.
As the owner of a Cornhuskers futures odds ticket to win the conference, there's no reason to back off that now. Gimme' Nebraska and the hooked field goal for Saturday.
Last Call in the Big XII
By Judd Hall
National championship hopes used to be on the line on a yearly basis when the Sooners and Cornhuskers would meet up back in the days of the Big Eight Conference. Nebraska (10-2 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) now has one last chance to knock Oklahoma out of the BCS when they meet up for the final Big XII title game at Cowboys Stadium on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EST on ABC.
Forgive Oklahoma (10-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) fans for thinking they own this title game because they damn near do. The Sooners will be in their eighth appearance of the 15 championship tests the Big XII has had since 1996. OU has gone 6-1 in those past seven spots, which includes winning the last three trips by a combined score of 121-45.
The Huskers weren’t expected to have a shot in hell against Texas in last year’s title game, but came within a controversial call of the upset in a 13-12 setback as 14 ½-point underdogs. The loss has knocked Nebraska down to a 2-3 record in the Big XII Championship.
Nebraska was expected to be a favorite to win the Big XII this season and really had no problems in clinching the North Division. Yet the betting shops are not banking on them to win this Saturday night by installing the Sooners as 3½-point favorites at the start of the week with a total of 54. Since Monday, Oklahoma has been posted as a 6 ½-point “chalk” before moving back down to the current line of -4½.
So why were there so many moves on the spread in just a matter of a few days? It all comes down to who will be under center for the Cornhuskers.
Taylor Martinez helped Bo Pelini restore the option offense that many have come to expect out of any Nebraska team. This offense has averaged 33.8 points per game and is gobbling up yards on the ground by the tune of 269.2 rushing yards per game. Martinez himself is picking up 97.4 rushing YPG and 12 scores with 143.5 YPG through the air. It also doesn’t hurt that Roy Helu was there to take the ball from the young signal caller, gaining 1,120 rushing yards with 10 touchdowns.
Last week the Cornhuskers were without Martinez’s services as he was laid up with a sprained right ankle. They didn’t need him against Colorado, evidenced by a 45-17 thrashing as 17½-point home favorites. Cody Green was moderately successful as a replacement for Martinez, completing 10-of-13 passes for 80 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Running back Rex Burkhead also showed a little something while in the wildcat formation with two completions that both went for touchdowns.
As good as the outcome was for Nebraska last Friday, VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Bruce Marshall isn’t sold on what they’re doing at the quarterback position. “Some weird elements to this game and the toughest of the conference title games to read, at least in my book. The toughest thing to determine is the QB situation for the Cornhuskers. And despite the positive Colorado effort, Bo Pelini might have to be relying upon the guys who improved so inadequate a year ago if Martinez isn't available. It was Martinez' dynamism that changed the equation for this year's Husker team.”
The issue under center has been a problem for the sportsbooks as well. Mike Pierce of Sportsbook.com informs us that if Martinez is in the lineup, OU is a 3½-point favorite. With Green running the show, the Sooners come in at -7 or -7½.
Regardless of who is calling the plays on the field for Nebraska, they’re going to have a tough go of it against the Sooners’ defense. Oklahoma has allowed the last three teams they’ve faced to complete just 59 percent of their passes for 172.3 YPG, three touchdowns and six interceptions. And even though the Sooners are giving up 152.3 rushing YPG (63rd nationally), stopping any sort of passing game will seriously the Cornhuskers’ best laid plans.
Should the defense work as it plans, then Oklahoma will be a lot more relaxed on the offensive side of the ball. That’s a great thing for QB Landry Jones, who has started to come into his own since replacing Sam Bradford early last season. Jones is No. 2 in passing this season among the nation’s quarterbacks with 3,947 passing yards, 34 touchdowns and completing 66 percent of his throws. Ryan Broyles has been Jones’ top target, leading the nation with 9.6 receptions per game and 115.9 YPG. It should come as no surprise that the Sooners are fourth in the country with 336.3 passing YPG in 2010.
The only thing that has been less than optimal is the running game for the Sooners. And that’s kind of surprising to say with DeMarco Murray gaining 1,053 yards and 14 scores on the ground. But Murray has a knack for being banged up, which is happening this week with a knee injury that has him currently listed as “probable.”
Murray will have one advantage in that Nebraska is damn near shutting down offenses with 144.8 YPG allowed via the air to rank second in the country, while allowing 147.0 rushing YPG. Perhaps more important is the Cornhuskers are penalized just under eight times per game, whereas the Sooners usually see five yellow hankies in a contest. That’s huge when you’re looking to keep an opposing defense on the field. Plus, Nebraska fans already think there is a conspiracy with them getting penalized since they’re leaving for the Big Ten after this game. Just ask one of them about the awesome officiating in the 9-6 loss to Texas A&M.
Marshall also doesn’t buy into what the ‘Huskers are selling on defense. “I do not think the Huskers are quite as intimidating defensively as a year ago, and with Jones looking much more confident on the road the past few weeks, I think OU will score some points.”
Nebraska has its work cut out for them with the fact that the North Division teams are 4-10 SU over the life of this title game. It doesn’t get better for our purposes as they’re 4-9-1 ATS.
The Sooners have enjoyed being favored against Big XII foes, evidenced by a 38-8 SU and 28-18 ATS record over the last five seasons.
This rivalry has been a chalk eater’s paradise as the favorites are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS.
vegasinsider.com
College Football Betting: UConn at South Florida
By: Joe Freda
The Connecticut Huskies have won four straight, with a 4-0 college football spread record. Randy Edsall’s squad puts its streak on the line in Saturday’s road matchup against the South Florida Bulls, who are 3-2 ATS in their last five contests.
Sports books opened South Florida as a one-point home favorite, with early Bulls’ wagers driving the number north to two. NCAA betting shops first set the ‘total’ at 41 ½, which was unchanged on most boards after initial action.
Connecticut’s latest triumph came in last Saturday’s 38-17 win as a 1 ½-point home favorite against the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Huskies prevailed despite being penalized nine times for 94 yards.
Huskies running back Jordan Todman notched 175 yards on 31 carries, taking in three touchdowns. The junior injured his shoulder during the game, but is listed as “probable” by Don Best.com to play against South Florida.
Connecticut’s Zach Frazer completed 11-of-24 passes for 121 yards. The senior quarterback found fullback Anthony Sherman for a 16-yard touchdown, giving the Huskies an early 7-0 lead.
The Huskies’ defense allowed 399 yards, grabbing four interceptions and one fumble. Defensive end Jesse Joseph registered the team’s only sack, bringing down Cincinnati’s Zach Collaros in the third quarter.
The lopsided affair’s combined 55 points ducked below the closing ‘total’ of 56, bringing the ‘under’ to 4-1 in the Huskies’ last five games. Connecticut’s offense moved the chains on 9-of-16 third down spots during its 34 minutes of possession.
The Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their first five road games, with the ‘over’ also going 1-4. Todman and Co. have scored 14.6 PPG in that span, while allowing 23.8 PPG.
South Florida pulled out a 23-20 overtime win as a 13-point road dog in last Saturday’s battle against the Miami Hurricanes. Bulls quarterback Bobby Eveld ran in a one-yard touchdown with two minutes remaining to tie the game, 17-17, forcing the extra stanza.
Eveld finished with 120 passing yards, completing 8-of-15 attempts. The freshman led his offense to 23 first downs in its 29 minutes with the ball.
South Florida’s Moise Plancher and Demetris Murray united for 143 rushing yards. Plancher recorded a season-high 24 carries, while Murray took in two scores from inside Miami’s 10-yard line.
The Bulls’ defense gave up 353 yards, with 188 coming through the air. South Florida’s Jacquian Williams and Farron Hornes each logged an interception.
The tight battle’s combined 43 points stayed below the 46 ½-point ‘total,’ extending South Florida’s ‘under’ streak to 3-0 in its last three games. The Bulls’ offense converted only 3-of-14 third downs, while being forced to punt ten times.
South Florida is 2-4 ATS in its first six home games, with the ‘over’ also cashing at 2-4. Skip Holtz’ crew has given up a stingy 14.3 PPG in that stretch, while notching 26.8 PPG.
The Bulls are 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings against Connecticut, with the ‘total’ splitting at 2-2.
Connecticut won last December’s game between the Big East Conference rivals, 29-27, failing to cover ATS as a 7 ½-point home favorite. Frazer logged 225 passing yards and two touchdowns for the Huskies, who recorded no turnovers.
Saturday’s kickoff is scheduled for 5 p.m. (PT), with ESPN2 providing the national television coverage.
The weather forecast in Tampa calls for a low of 60 degrees with calm winds and a 10-percent chance of rain.
Hot Hokies face Florida State for ACC Title
By: Michael Robinson
The Virginia Tech Hokies incredible comeback story is flying under the radar nationally as they face the Florida State Seminoles for the ACC title on Saturday. The winner will play in the Orange Bowl.
Bookmaker.com has Virginia Tech as four-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 52 points. The Seminoles are plus 155 to win outright in the neutral site of Charlotte, North Carolina.
These teams are very close statistically with Virginia Tech scoring 34.8 PPG and allowing 17.9 PPG. Florida State is at 31.7 PPG and 17.8 PPG respectively.
The Hokies are 10-2 straight-up and 9-3 against the college football spread. Those numbers are impressive by themselves, but even more considering they were 0-2 SU and ATS after losses to Boise State (33-30) and Division I-AA James Madison (21-16). The latter as 33-point home favorites was arguably the most embarrassing defeat in team history.
Coach Frank Beamer’s squad could have folded its tent and gone home or start proving it deserved its preseason No. 10 AP ranking.
The Hokies clearly chose the latter with a 10-game winning streak. The ATS number has been almost as impressive at 9-1. The only failure to ‘cover’ was hosting Georgia Tech on November 4, a 28-21 win as 13-point favorites.
Senior quarterback Tyrod Taylor deserves a lot of credit for the turnaround. He’s gotten lost in the shuffle in the year of high-profile dual-threat quarterbacks like Cam Newton and Denard Robinson. Taylor has thrown for 2,258 yards and 8.82 yards per attempt (13th nationally). He also has 20 touchdowns versus just four interceptions.
Taylor is also second on the Hokies in rushing (613 yards). He’s capable of bigger numbers, but they already have three running backs in Ryan Williams, Darren Evans and David Wilson who would be stars of other teams. Williams missed four earlier games with a hamstring injury, but is now close to 100 percent.
The Hokies running backs will have a challenge against a fast Florida State front-four that paces the nation’s 23rd ranked rushing defense (123.7 YPG).
The Seminoles went 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS in their first year under new head coach Jimbo Fisher. They’re looking for their first conference title since 2005, with Va. Tech most recently winning in 2007 and 2008.
Florida State carries a modest three-game winning streak. The defense has stepped up in wins over Clemson (16-13), Maryland (30-16) and Florida (31-7), helping the ‘under’ go 3-0.
Running back Jermaine Thomas (knee) will miss this game and Ty Jones (ankle) is also questionable. That could put a lot of pressure on leading rusher Chris Thompson to carry the full load.
Quarterback Christian Ponder has a lot of experience as a senior and he’s improved his last four outings with eight touchdowns versus one interception. He aggravated an elbow injury against Florida last week, but will play.
Ponder will be facing a Virginia Tech pass defense that ranks 28th in the country (191.2 YPG). However cornerback Rashad Carmichael (ankle) is questionable after missing last week. The Hokies defense is allowing 12.4 PPG the last five games, helping the ‘under’ go 5-0. Part of the reason was playing some poor offenses.
Florida State is 3-2 SU and ATS on the road this year. Va. Tech is 4-0 SU and ATS in true road games. The Boise State loss (and non cover) came in neutral Landover, Maryland.
These teams split their most recent meetings in 2007 and 2008, with the home team going 2-0 SU and ATS. Florida State upset Virginia Tech in the 2005 conference title game, 27-22 as 14 ½-point ‘dogs. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the last three meetings.
ESPN will have the kickoff from Bank of America Stadium at 4:45 p.m. (PT). Weather could have a few showers and will be cold, dipping into the 30s.
College Football Top 25 Cheat Sheet: Week 14
By JON KUIPERIJ
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at West Virginia Mountaineers (-20.5, 44.5)
Why Rutgers will cover: Rutgers is a money maker as a road underdog, cashing seven of its last nine tries in this role. Scarlet Knights are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as dogs of 10.5 or higher.
Why West Virginia will cover: Mountaineers have dominated the all-time series, going 31-4-2 against Rutgers and winning all 16 games in Morgantown.
Total: Something has to give here. Rutgers is on a 6-1 run over the total, but West Virginia is 5-1 to the under in its last six.
Southern Methodist Mustangs at Central Florida Knights (-9, 55)
Why Southern Methodist will cover: Mustangs appear to be a team of destiny, shooting for their first Conference USA championship since 1984.
Why Central Florida will cover: Freshman QB Jeff Godfrey is eighth in the nation in efficiency with a 164.79 rating. Knights are 20-7 ATS in their last 27.
Total: SMU quarterback Kyle Padron hurt his ankle against East Carolina last week and might not be as effective this week.
Utah State Aggies at Boise State Broncos (-37.5, 61.5)
Why Utah State will cover: Obvious letdown spot for Boise State, whose national title dreams were dashed last week with loss at Nevada.
Why Boise State will cover: Boise State has owned the Aggies, going 9-1-2 ATS against Utah State in last 12 meetings.
Total: Broncos have averaged 53.7 points per game in their last seven against Utah State.
Nevada Wolf Pack at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8.5, 69)
Why Nevada will cover: Wolf Pack’s confidence couldn’t be higher after upsetting Boise State last week.
Why Louisiana Tech will cover: Bulldogs need a victory to become bowl eligible.
Total: Both teams have averaged more than 40 points per game over their last three contests.
Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers (16.5, 64)
Why Oregon will cover: Win this week would clinch the Ducks a spot in the national championship game.
Why Oregon State will cover: Beavers are always a dangerous underdog, covering 19 of the last 26 games they were catching points.
Total: Over is 8-0 in the last eight meetings in the series.
Auburn Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks (5.5, 61)
Why Auburn will cover: Tigers won and covered in their first meeting with South Carolina this year, posting a 35-27 win in September.
Why South Carolina will cover: Gamecocks are fifth in the nation against the run, allowing only 93.2 yards a game.
Total: Auburn has allowed only 45 points in the fourth quarter this season.
Florida State Seminoles at Virginia Tech Hokies (-3.5, 52.5)
Why Florida State will cover: Seminoles have won eight of the past nine meetings straight up.
Why Virginia Tech will cover: Hokies are rolling since losing their first two games of the year. Virginia Tech is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 overall.
Total: Over is 13-3 in Florida State’s last 16 games as an underdog.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Oklahoma Sooners (-5.5, 54.5)
Why Nebraska will cover: Cornhuskers picked off Oklahoma QB Landry Jones five times last season and Nebraska’s pass defense is nearly as good this year, ranked second in the nation.
Why Oklahoma will cover: Home team is 6-2 ATS in last eight meetings and favorite has covered seven of last 10 times in the series.
Total: Both teams are banged up on offence. Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez is nursing an ankle injury, and Sooners RB DeMarco Murray hurt his knee last week.
NCAAF Betting Preview: Oregon at Oregon St
By Jeff Mattingly
Oregon clinched at least a share of the Pac-10 title on Friday night when it soundly beat Arizona 48-29 at Autzen Stadium, but everyone surrounding the program knows it has bigger plans. “We’re looking at The Natty now, you know,” said cornerback Cliff Harris. “I’m glad that we’re Pac-10 champions, but I don’t know how to feel yet because it’s still a one game season.” Last season the Rose Bowl was on the line for both teams when Oregon hosted Oregon State. The Ducks earned the conference title and a trip to Pasadena with a 37-33 win. Oregon leads the all-time series 57-46-10 and is 25-18-5 against the Beavers in Corvalis. The team is 4-7 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.
The Ducks have already scored a school record 555 points this season and the team has not trailed in any game this season entering the final quarter. Oregon actually leads the nation in scoring offense at 50.5 points per game and total offense in amassing 541.7 total yards a contest. Of the Ducks‘ 66 scoring drives resulting in touchdowns, 34 have taken five plays or less. The program is up against the fact that no Pac-10 team has gone undefeated in conference play since the nine-game schedule went into effect in 2006.
Oregon State concludes the regular season with its annual Civil War matchup with its intra-state rival and will look to make itself bowl eligible in the process. The Beavers are normally a force to be reckoned with at the end of the year, but the program has dropped three of its last four contests. “We can pack it in, or we can come out and fight,” said quarterback Ryan Katz. Many experts predict the team will rally due to hosting ESPN’s College Football GameDay for the first time ever. Saturday will mark the first time Oregon State has faced a No. 1 ranked team since defeating then No. 1 USC on September 25, 2008 at Reser Stadium, 27-21. The squad is 13-3 ATS as an underdog the past three years.
The Beavers have taken great pride in making it to the postseason, going bowling in nine of the last 11 seasons, winning six of those games over the past decade. Oregon State has played in the Civil War three times recently with bowl eligibility on the line, losing in 2001, winning in 2004 and failing in 2005. A big reason for the team’s record this year is the fact it has played the third-most difficult schedule in the country heading into this weekend’s games.
Bettors will be interested in laying the Ducks due to their 1-4-1 ATS mark as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, while the Beavers are 9-2 ATS versus teams with a winning record.
SEC Championship Game
By Brian Edwards
As usual, there are national-title implications for this year’s SEC Championship Game at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. In 1992, this event began with a thriller at Legion Field in Tuscaloosa, where Alabama’s Antonio Langham’s interception of a Shane Matthews pass was returned for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter to lift the Tide to a 28-21 win over Florida.
Gene Stallings’ team would win the national title in New Orleans less than a month later. Likewise, from 2006-2009, the winner of this game has gone on to win the BCS Championship Game.
Auburn (12-0 straight up, 8-3 against the spread) is in position to make it five straight national champs from out of the SEC, but only if it can get past South Carolina (and another foe in Phoenix) on Saturday afternoon at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.
Most books were listing Gene Chizik’s team as a favorite of either 4 ½ or five points on Wednesday morning, but then a little national news caused the line to be moved. Around lunchtime on the East coast Wednesday, the NCAA released a statement saying that Auburn quarterback Cam Newton was eligible despite the fact that his father had indeed brokered a pay-for-play scheme that Cam and AU were unaware of. (Oh, that won’t open up a can of worms for every middle man in America moving forward.)
With all doubt of a possible Newton suspension removed, most books moved Auburn to a six-point favorite within an hour. As of Thursday morning, however, most spots had the Tigers at 5 ½, while a few others were at five or six. The total was 61, while the Gamecocks were plus-180 to win outright (risk $100 to win $180).
As of Friday afternoon, most books were at 5 ½ and the total was up to 61 ½.
Auburn is coming off an epic comeback win over arch-rival Alabama in Tuscaloosa. In last Friday afternoon’s Iron Bowl, the Crimson Tide raced out to a 24-0 lead and led by a 24-7 score at halftime.
But Newton maintained his composure and led the Tigers back for a 28-27 win as 4 ½-point road underdogs. His third touchdown pass of the game, a seven-yard strike to tight end Philip Lutzenkirchen, put AU ahead for good early in the fourth quarter.
Newton, the SEC’s leading rusher, was limited to 39 yards on the ground, but he did run for his 18th touchdown of the year. The junior signal caller, who appears to be a lock to win the Heisman Trophy if he doesn’t completely implode in Atlanta, has a 24/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the season.
Newton has been the perfect fit for Gus Malzahn’s offense and the surrounding cast has also been outstanding. For the most part, Auburn has overcome an average defense and has simply outscored opponents on days that the ‘D’ hasn’t been able to get stops.
Consider this: AU has given up 26 points or more in seven of its 12 games. The Tigers gave up 43 to Arkansas, yet won by more than three touchdowns. They’ve trailed by double digits in four different games, yet remain unbeaten.
South Carolina (9-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) has won three in a row both SU and ATS, including last week’s 29-7 win at Clemson as a 2 ½-point favorite. Stephen Garcia threw for 227 yards and a pair of touchdowns without being intercepted, while Alshon Jeffery hauled in five receptions for 141 yards and one TD.
But Garcia sustained a pair of injuries in the win over Clemson – one to his non-throwing shoulder and another to his right thumb. These dings caused Garcia to miss practice on both Monday and Tuesday before returning to the Proving Ground on Wednesday.
"He threw it around and took most of the reps," SC quarterbacks coach G.A. Mangus told GameCockCentral.com on Wednesday night. "He wore a little harness or brace on his shoulder just for tonight to see how it felt. He did all right. He threw the ball around. It feels good and feels much better today. He'll be fine. It was precautionary. He's a tough kid. Tomorrow (Thursday), he'll go out there and let it go."
These teams met back in Week 4 on The Plains, where Auburn rallied from a 20-7 deficit to capture a 35-27 win as a three-point home favorite. Newton threw a pair of TD passes and rushed for 176 yards and three more scores.
Garcia had three TD passes at Auburn, but he was benched by Steve Spurrier when he coughed up two fumbles in the second half. Jeffery had a big game with eight receptions for 192 yards, but Marcus Lattimore was limited to only 33 yards on 14 carries.
Lattimore, the true freshman RB from the Palmetto State, has been the player that’s lifted Spurrier’s program to the next level in the legendary coach’s sixth year at the helm. Lattimore has 1,114 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. He’s also a threat in the passing attack, making 23 catches for 328 yards and two more TDs.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Andy Iskoe is going with the underdog. In a phone conversation earlier this week, Iskoe said, “South Carolina played an excellent game at Auburn early in the year, one the Gamecocks certainly could’ve won if not for several second-half turnovers.
“I don’t give South Carolina a huge coaching advantage because Gene Chizik has done a really good job this season. But there’s no denying that Steve Spurrier has been there and done that in terms of SEC Championship Games, and I do take into account a coaching advantage for the Gamecocks.
Auburn has a 6-2 spread record as a single-digit favorite this year, while South Carolina is 2-1 both SU and ATS as an underdog.
The ‘over’ is 7-4 overall for USC this year, while the ‘over’ has hit at a 6-5 clip in AU’s 11 games with a total.
Kick-off is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
vegasinsider.com
CUSA Championship
By Chris David
Saturday’s college football card offers up four championship games and the first battle takes place from Orlando, Florida with the Conference USA title game between SMU (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) and Central Florida (9-3 SU, 9-3 ATS).
CUSA isn’t a Bowl Championship Series (BCS) conference, which means no big bowl bid to the winner but a likely trip to the Liberty Bowl is on the line.
The Knights locked up the East Division a few weeks ago and they also clinched the opportunity to host the championship from Bright House Networks Stadium. Head coach June Jones and the Mustangs didn’t have an easy path to the title game but they claimed the West Division in their final regular season game.
Last Saturday, SMU stopped East Carolina 45-38 in overtime in a game they almost blew. The Mustangs led 38-24 in the fourth before the Pirates forced overtime with 12 seconds left on a late touchdown. Fortunately, SMU scored first in the extra session and it ended the game by picking off ECU on its first possession.
Offense has never been an issue for Jones, who put up huge numbers during his coaching tenure at Hawaii and nothing has changed in Dallas. We’re not seeing Colt Brennan or Timmy Change-type statistics, but this SMU has shown the ability to score (28.3 PPG). The Mustangs quarterback Kyle Padron (59%, 3,306 yards, 28 TDs) is a nice fit even though his interceptions (10) and sacks (24) have been drive killers. Running back Zach Line (1,297 yards, 10 TDs) has taken the pressure off the passing game but make no mistake that this offense likes to pass first. Padron has four receivers with 30-plus catches or more, led by deep threat Aldrick Robinson (1,182 yards, 12 TDs).
SMU could have trouble putting up points on Saturday since UCF’s defense is the best in the conference. The Knights are allowing 18.9 points per game and 318 yards per game and that says a lot since CUSA has a lot of offensive styles that like to run ‘n shoot.
One of those offenses happens to be Central Florida, which averaged 35 PPG this season. And what’s more impressive is the Knights did it with a freshman quarterback. Since taking over full-time for the injured Rob Calabrese, Jeff Godfrey has shown poise in the pocket (67.4%) plus he can run (529 yards, 10 TDs) out of the spread as well. Running back Ronnie Weaver (855 yards, 11 TDs) has been a workhorse, plus wide receivers Jamar Newsome (567 yards) and Brian Watters (560 yards) have shown consistency on the outside.
Playing this game at home is big boost for Head coach George O’Leary and UCF, but gamblers should be aware that the team is just 4-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in Orlando this season. The losses came to N.C. State (21-28) and Southern Miss (21-31) and the Knights were haunted by turnovers in both affairs. Even though SMU won at ECU last weekend, the Mustangs are just 3-3 both SU and ATS on the road and the two other wins came against a pair of 4-8 schools in Tulane and Rice.
Will UCF limit the mistakes this week and overpower SMU with its ground game? The oddmakers opened the Knights as 9 ½-point favorites and the number hasn’t moved much.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Doug Upstone has found some nice betting angles on this contest and it could surprise you. He said, “Interesting to note Central Florida is only 7-6 ATS at home when favored by 10 1/2 points or less during O’Leary’s tenure and the Ponies are 9-2 ATS as underdogs since last season, losing by just 2 1/2 points a contest.” These two schools didn’t meet this season but UCF has won the last two meetings in 2007 and 2008, both coming in double-digit fashion (49-20, 31-17). The ‘under’ cashed in both these affairs and this week’s total is hovering around 55 points.
Folks looking at the History of the CUSA Championship can point toward the visitor, which has won three of the five title games.
Kickoff for this battle is set for 12:00 p.m. EST, with ESPN2 providing national coverage.
vegasinsider.com
Fade Alert - Week 14
By Bruce Marshall
Most of the teams are finished for the regular season, but not all of then. And as the campaign comes to its conclusion, there are still a few teams worth "fading" in college football. So, for the last time in 2010, it’s time for this weekend’s "Fade Alert."
Rutgers...Scarlet Knights fans must be wondering why the football season has to endure for another week. Perhaps because it is sparing them from watching the Rutgers basketball team. Whatever, 2010 has marked a significant step backwards for the Piscataway bunch that has seen its run of five straight bowls come to a crashing conclusion. In the process, some of the shine has come off of the star of HC Greg Schiano, although his reputation still remains pretty good after the resurrection job done at the State University of New Jersey over the past several years. At least no schools figure to be poking around this offseason, inquiring about Schiano’s interest or availability in any openings elsewhere. Still, traditional losing programs can slip back into mediocrity pretty quickly (just ask Wake Forest), and Scarlet Knight backers are worried that the regression of 2010 might signal the beginning of a period of football decline at Rutgers. It was certainly a year in reverse for the offense and soph QB Tom Savage, who endured an ineffective and injury-marred season, eventually relieved by true frosh Chas Dodd, who played to mixed reviews. The offensive line was a mess, having allowed a nation’s-worst 55 sacks heading into the last weekend of play. What was once a formidable defense has allowed 109 points over the past two games. We won’t know until next fall if 2010 was just an aberration and a pause in Rutgers’ ongoing gridiron resurrection, or the beginning of the end of a brief and rare shining era of gridiron glory in New Jersey. This week at West Virginia
Utah State...This was supposed to be the season the Utags got back on the map, perhaps emerging as this year’s version of Idaho in 2009, which appeared from nowhere and ended up playing in a bowl game a year ago. The pieces seemed in place for a revival that could make second-year HC Gary Andersen one of the hot commodities of the coaching ranks. An opening 31-24 loss at Oklahoma did nothing to dampen the enthusiasm, but beneath the surface some cracks were beginning to form at the foundation of the roster. Key injuries to some of the few available playmakers such as RB Robert Turbin and WR Stanley Morrison robbed this year’s USU of the sort of homerun elements that could have really complemented livewire sr. QB Diondre Borel, who was poised to have a breakout campaign. Instead, minus some of those potential gamebreakers at his disposal, Borel regressed, tossing just 8 TD passes and 11 picks entering the finale, vs. 17 TDP and only 4 interceptions a year ago. Without the expected cover from the offense, the defense shipped points alarmingly. And now the whole future of the program looks up in the air, with the WAC further downgraded in coming years due to defections of key members Boise State, Nevada, Fresno State, and, apparently, Hawaii. Hardly what we were talking about when we wrote our spring preview eight months ago about an excited bunch of Aggies, expecting a breakthrough season and a first bowl invite since 1997. And now the Utags can only look forward to being possible cannon fodder for an angry Boise State this week on the blue carpet. What a difference a few months can make. This week at Boise State
UCLA or Southern Cal...take your pick. Maybe it’s appropriate that these two finish the season off against each other as they have so many times in the past. Sad, really, to think about what this unique intra-city series was for so many decades. The 79th renewal at the Rose Bowl on Saturday, however, doesn’t figure to be one that anybody is going to recall in future years. It’s arguably one of the least-meaningful games between the two in over 50 years. It’s also only the fifth time in the last 46 years that no bowl will be on the line for either. Of course, SC’s season was effectively over before it began, reduced to rubble by NCAA sanctions that prohibited it from postseason play. A shame, because the Trojans might have fit into the Las Vegas Bowl or return visit to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco had they been eligible. But only on brief occasions did the Trojans look like a finished product under first-year HC Lane Kiffin, who has never given the impression of being too comfortable in this much-scrutinized position.
Even more perplexing is the direction at UCLA, which has been sideways at best ever since native son Rick Neuheisel returned to Westwood in 2008. But this has not turned into a cheery homecoming for Slick Rick, who will miss the postseason for the second time in three years (and the Bruins barely squeezed into the bowl picture a year ago) amid a growing chorus that his regime should be humanely terminated. There has been no progression, just regression, on the field from the Bruins, just 15-21 straight up on Neuheisel’s watch, a record that is 12-21 without three wins over lowly Washington State, and only 11-21 if you include a success over a winless Washington team in 2008. Scattered amid the rubble are a succession of lopsided defeats of the sort once-proud programs such as UCLA should never have to endure. Neuheisel’s Bruins have allowed 50 points or more on three different occasions; this from a program that had allowed such disgrace to happen just once from the end of World War II until 1995. They’ve regressed from the teams of predecessor Karl Dorrell, whose Bruins at least qualified for minor bowls in each of his five years in charge, and are a poor relation to the teams coached by Dorrell predecessor Bob Toledo. The offense has been a mess, and the defense not much better, despite recruiting classes consistently ranked in the top fifteen in the nation. It would be par for the Neuheisel course to rally this week against UCLA’s oldest rival and give Bruins fans some hope that a turnaround is imminent. That’s at least what Neuheisel is hoping the masses will believe. Meanwhile, we can only dream about what used to be in this rivalry, and blame the Bruins for diluting what used to be one of college football’s greatest and most colorful spectacles...USC vs. UCLA. This week Southern Cal at UCLA
UNLV...Even UNLV’s pre-naturally optimistic first-year HC Bobby Hauck has admitted that the current season has carried on an awfully long time for his Rebels, who get to play a 13th game this season because they travel to Hawaii, the final regular-season destination this weekend. Unfortunately, the Rebels have to return to Las Vegas after the game for finals. So much for a bowl-type experience on the islands for UNLV, which instead will be feeling like lambs being led to their slaughter against a high-powered Hawaii team that has outscored its last five foes at Aloha Stadium by a combined 220-66. Combined with the Rebels losing and failing to cover their six road games by an average score of 263-58 and owning one of the lowest-ranked defenses in the country (a hard-to-achieve 117th vs. both the rush and in pass-efficiency defense), and the recipe for a forgettable weekend adjacent to Pearl Harbor exists. This week at Hawaii
Florida Atlantic...There’s been no word from Boca Raton if this might be the end of the line for the only coach the Owls have ever known, Howard Schnellenberger. What we do know is that 2010 has been a major letdown for the pipe-smoking veteran mentor, whose Owls have collapsed amid a collection of shortcomings (can’t run or stop the run, can’t pass or stop the pass...take your pick). Senior QB Jeff Van Camp has endured a few miserable closing acts in his run as the starter, tossing 5 picks in his last two games, ugly losses vs. Texas and Middle Tennessee. The offensive line remains a problem, and the attack has been held to under 300 yards on four different occasions this season. The secondary is banged up and Schnellenberger was almost looking for volunteer DBs for this week’s finale vs. Troy, also likely the last FAU game ever to be played at jerry-rigged Lockhart Stadium, with a new on-campus facility tentatively slated to open next year. Sun Belt sources seem to believe Schnellenberger will at least get one season to coach in the new arena, if for no other reason than he has earned the right to do so as the architect of the program. But he will be going into 2011 off the Owls’ worst Sun Belt mark since 2006, regarding of the result in the final game. This week hosts Troy