Saturday's Games
Top games
East Carolina was 23-29/243 passing in LY's 24-3 upset win over West Virginia, their first series win in eight tries (six of seven losses were by 17+ points.). Pirates lost last six visits to this site by average of 21 pts (1-4-1 vs spread). ECU was just 12-27 passing vs Appalachian State in 29-24 opening win (was 27-7 at half) last week. Mountaineers had 195 rushing yards, 243 passing in their 33-20 opening win against Liberty.
Home team won last five Iowa-Iowa State games; Hawkeyes lost their last two visits here, 23-3/15-13. Cyclones don't have TD in last 10 Q's in series- four of last five series totals were 28 or less. Iowa covered two of last nine as road favorite, nine of last 27 in game after a win. State is 10-7 as home underdog since '05. Last week, Hawkeyes needed two blocked FGs in last 0:10 to hold off I-AA Northern Iowa, 17-16. State had 204 rushing yards, 238 passing in 34-17 win over North Dakota State.
Auburn won seven of last eight games vs Mississippi State, but lost to Bulldogs two years ago, and beat them 3-2 LY (-9), in game that Tigers outgained State 315-116. Five of Auburn's last six series wins are by 28+ points. Tigers covered eight of last 24 as a favorite, six of last 18 as home fave. State is 12-19-1 as road dog since 2002. Auburn had 301 yards on ground, 255 in air LW vs La Tech (won 37-13; was 13-10 at half). State had 12 penalties for 152 yards in 45-7 destruction of I-AA Jackson St.
Duke lost 24-16 to I-AA Richmond last week, passing for 350 yards but giving up blocked punt for a TD- they only had 16 rushed for 19 yards vs I-AA foe, a definite red flag. Army is 4-3 as home favorite since '02; Cadets beat Eastern Michigan 27-14 last week, running ball for 300 yds, passing for 8. Blue Devils are 26-14 vs spread in last 40 road games (dog in 39 of the 40). Duke is 14-91 SU since 2000.
Stanford makes long trip east after Pac-10 win at Washington State last week; remember Cal got ambushed in similar trip at Maryland last year. Wake Forest lost 24-21 at home to Baylor in opener (outgained by Bears 366-269). Stanford is 12-10-1 vs spread on road since '05- they've got 17 starters back this season, but are starting redshirt freshman QB. Deacons are 8-20-1 as home favorite this decade; QB Skinner has 37 career starts, but Wake's defense has only four returning starters from last year.
Underdog is 3-1-1 vs spread in last five South Carolina-Georgia games, with visitor winning four of the five. Dawgs have just one offensive TD in last eight Q's vs Carolina. Georgia is 10-16 as a home favorite since '04 and 2-6 vs spread in game right after its last eight losses. Gamecocks are 8-4-1 as road underdog under Spurrier (12-6-1 vs spread in last 19 road games). Carolina beat NC State 7-3 last week (256-133 TY). Dawgs lost 24-10 at Oklahoma State (outgained 307-257). Average total in last five series games, 27.
UCLA intercepted four Tennessee passes in first half LY, upset Vols in Rose Bowl opener, 27-24 (+7.5), in game they outrushed Bruins 177-29. Vols are 7-3-1 vs spread in last 11 games as favorite, but they're playing Florida next week, so could hold back some stuff here. UCLA covered 18 of last 28 as underdog, but were 1-3 as road LY in Neuheisel's first year with Bruins. UCLA beat San Diego State 33-14 last week, blocking field goal for TD. Tennessee had 657 yards in 63-7 win vs WKU last week.
Oregon had horrific opener in Boise, losing 19-8 and losing best running back Blount after post-game incident. Ducks covered 15 of last 21 as a home favorite- they rallied from 20-3 deficit to win in OT at Purdue last year, running ball for 306 yards. Purdue beat Toledo 52-31 last week, in game where they got lit up for 423 passing yards. Boilers are 7-5 vs the spread as road dog since 2006. Interesting to see how Coach Kelly gets his Ducks to play after the worst possible debut last week.
This is just second time in last 11 meetings Notre Dame is favored over Michigan; home team won eight of last ten series games, with underdogs winning six of nine SU. Michigan is starting freshman QB- they were 15 of 28 for 197 passing yards in opener. irish have nine starters back on offense, Michigan has 10. Wolverines are 10-8 as an underdog since '00, 2-3 at home. I'm guessing Wolverines will cover WR Floyd better than Nevada did last week-- Irish were 17-20/332 passing.
Virginia lost 26-14 at home to Wm & Mary last week, turning ball over seven times (-6); they have senior QB (23 starts) but only five starters back on offense, six on defense. Cavaliers are 32-16 vs spread at home since 2001. TCU hasn't played yet; they've got only four starters back on defense, six on offense, but have junior QB with 23 starts under his belt. Horned Frogs are 7-12-1 as road favorite since '03. Should be a big edge for Virginia having already played, but they lost to a I-AA team.
Minnesota opens its new stadium off a 23-20 OT win at Syracuse, in a game where Gophers held Orange scoreless in second half/OT. Air Force crushed Nicholls State 72-0 last week, running option for 474 yards, but hard to tell much from that. Falcons are 17-12 vs spread as home dog in this decade; Minnesota is 2-5 as home favorite under Brewster. Red flag for Minnesota was 19-42 passing in dome, though they got ball to WR Decker in big spots. Syracuse only had 90 yards on 34 runs last week.
Now that Oklahoma State beat Georgia, they have to validate it with win over 15-point dog Houston, which gave up 699 yards in 56-37 loss LY to OSU (+15). Cougars are 6-4 as road dog since 2005- they jogged 55-7 last week, with 32-44/447 passing state vs NW Louisiana, so hard to tell much there. Cowboys were +3 in turnovers last week, but had 106 yds in penalties- they outgained Dawgs 307-257. OSU covered nine of last 11 as home favorite, 15 of last 23 non-league games.
LSU had solid 31-23 win at improved Washington last week, but they were outgained 478-321; Huskies were 25-45/321 passing, but threw a key pick-6. Tigers are 8-17 vs spread as home favorite under Les Miles, 11-24-2 vs spread in game following a win. Vanderbilt is 17-5 vs spread in last 22 games as road dog; they're 27-21 vs spread in SEC since '03, but haven't won in Baton Rouge since 1951. Vandy had 433 yards on the ground in 45-0 win over I-AA Western Carolina, a hard win to evaluate.
USC crushed Ohio State 35-3 LY, outgaining Buckeyes 348-207; Trojans crushed San Jose State 56-3 last week, running for 342 yards, passing for 278 more- they're 13-15 vs spread in last 28 games as road fave. OSU is 47-4 SU at home since 2002, but just 4-6 vs spread as an underdog under Tressel, 1-2 at home- they're 26-16 vs spread after a win. Buckeyes had huge trouble with Navy last week, stopping tying 2-point play at 2:33 to play in game. First road start for USC freshman QB Barkley.
Other games
-- North Carolina is 1-3 as road favorite since '04; they completed just nine of 22 passes vs Citadel last week. UConn is 8-2 as a home dog.
-- Penn State crushed Syracuse 55-13 LY (38-6 at half); they won 31-7 vs Akron last week (31-0 at half); they covered 15 of last 22 as a HF.
-- Virginia Tech lost 34-24 to Alabama in Atlanta last week, getting TD on kick return, but getting outgained 498-155. Hokies are 7-10-1 as HF the last three years. Marshall is 6-15 as road dog under Snyder.
-- Michigan State is 13-24-1 as home favorite since '01; Spartans may be looking ahead to Notre Dame last week. Central Michigan lost its opener 19-6 last week, getting outgained 448-182 at Arizona.
-- Northwestern covered just four of last 19 as home favorite; they're 3-8 vs spread as favorite under Fitzgerald. Eastern Michigan lost to Army at home last week, giving up 300 yards on the ground.
-- Wisconsin (-2) won 13-10 at Fresno State LY; Badgers are 15-10 as a home favorite since '04. Fresno is 15-10 as road underdog since '01.
-- Tulane lost 37-13 at home to Tulsa LY, despite its 19-23/325 passing; BYU had huge win vs Oklahoma in Dallas last week- Florida State comes to Provo next week, so huge sandwich game for BYU here.
-- Texas covered 13 of last 18 non-league games, but is 8-11 vs spread in last 19 games as road favorite. Wyoming covered 3 of last 14 as a dog.
-- Navy lost 31-27 at Ohio State (TY 342-363); they passed ball better than usual (9-13/156), but they're 4-9 as HF since 2005. Louisiana Tech gave up 556 yards in 37-13 loss at Auburn, 301 rushing, 255 passing.
-- Washington played its heart out last week, losing 31-23 to LSU, while outgaining Tigers 478-321; now they're expected to beat Idaho team that won a conference road game last week, 21-6 at New Mexico State (+3).
-- UAB had 295 rushing yards, 221 passing in 44-34 pasting of Rice in its opener, behind mobile senior QB Webb, but Blazers lost last couple games vs SMU, 28-27/22-9. SMU is 11-8-1 as road dog since 2005.
-- Pitt is 7-11 vs spread as road favorite since '02; they've got senior QB and 15 returning starters. Buffalo is 18-8 as underdog under Gill, 3-3 if a home dog-- they sprung another upset last week at UTEP (23-17, +6).
-- Kent State has 15 returning starters but a new QB; they lost 21-0 LY against Boston College in Cleveland (+10). Eagles have QB issues but do have seven starters back on both sides of the ball (12-7-2 as HF).
-- Rice is 10-14 as road dog since '05 after getting waxed 44-24 at UAB last week (+5.5). Texas Tech plays Texas next week, so lookahead is a possibility, but they had 34-48/405 passing stats in Potts' first start.
-- Washington State had some flu issues on campus last week; they are 10-7 as home dog, but this game is in Seattle, not Pullman. Hawai'i beat Central Arkansas 25-20 last week, surviving four turnovers.
-- Indiana covered seven of last 11 as home favorite; they struggled 19-13 vs Eastern Kentucky last week, running ball for only 73 yards. Western Michigan got crushed at Michigan last week, trailing 31-0 at the half.
-- Missouri was impressive in neutral field rout of Illinois, despite only nine returning starters; Tigers are 18-14 as HF since '02. Bowling Green covered nine of its last thirteen games as a road underdog.
-- Kansas is 5-2 as road favorite under Mangino. UTEP got beat at home by Buffalo last week; they're 6-3 as a home dog under Price (dog 18-10 vs spread in their last 28 home games).
-- Road team won three of last four Central Florida-Southern Miss tilts, with teams splitting last two played here (average total. 67). UCF beat I-AA Samford last week 28-24, but needed kick return for TD to win.
-- Miami, OH lost 42-0 to Kentucky on neutral field last week, getting outgained 488-188. Boise State is 20-9 as a home favorite since '03; they beat Oregon 19-8 on national TV last week, but offense looked shaky.
-- Tulsa had 201 rushing yards, 211 passing in 37-13 win at Superdome; they're still just 7-9 in last 16 games as road favorite. New Mexico lost at Texas A&M 41-6, giving up 606 yards (245 rushing, 361 passing).
-- Utah overcame three turnovers to beat Utah State again 35-17, with 233 rushing yards, 286 in air. San Jose State got crushed 56-3 at USC in its opener; Spartans are 5-2 as a home underdog since 2006.
-- UNLV is 11-5 as home dog under Sanford; they've got seven starters back on both sides of ball. Oregon State has only three returning starters on defense, but they've covered eight of last 11 as road favorite.
-- Nebraska thrashed FAU 49-3 last week, running for 259, passing for 231 yards; Huskers are 5-8 as HF since '07. Arkansas State returns eight starters on defense, seven on offense- they're 8-7 as a road underdog.
-- Alabama beat Va Tech 34-24 last week, but they're just 6-17 vs spread in last 23 games as home favorite. FIU didn't play last week; they're 5-7 as road dog under Cristobal, but have 10 starters back on offense.
-- Western Kentucky got crushed 63-7 at Tennessee last week, giving up 657 yards, 380 on ground. South Florida covered just three of last ten as road favorite; they have senior QB but just 12 starters back overall.
-- Troy got outscored 24-0 in second half of loss at Bowling Green last week; Trojans are 9-4 as underdog the last three years. Florida has game with Tennessee next week, so some tricks will be left in the bag here.
-- North Texas is 0-8 vs spread in game following a win since '05; Mean Green won 20-10 at Ball State last week (+17.5). Ohio U had 61 yards on ground in 23-16 home loss to UConn last week.
-- Memphis lost 45-14 at home to Ole Miss Sunday, completing just 17 of 36 passes; Tigers lost 21-7 at home to Middle Tennessee in their last meeting, in '07. MTSU lost 37-14 at Clemson last week (TY 299-361).
-- Kansas State gave up blocked punt for TD, snuck past UMass 21-17 last week; Wildcats are 1-8 as road favorite since '04. UL-Lafayette has 16 starters back but new QB; they're 0-4 as home dog last three years.