NCAAF News and Notes Saturday 9/18

College Football Top 25 Cheat Sheet: Week 3
By PATRICK GARBIN

Arkansas Razorbacks at Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5, 54)

Why Arkansas will cover: Since the start of 2004, Georgia has struggled at home against the number, going 12-21-1 ATS.

Why Georgia will cover: Arkansas has lost seven consecutive (2-5 ATS) playing in true road games. Quarterback Ryan Mallett completed only 39 percent of his passes in four true road games a year ago.

Total: The Hogs and Dogs might be two of the most improved defenses in the SEC and have combined to allow just 8.5 points per game this season.

Ohio Bobcats at Ohio State Buckeyes (-30.5, 45.5)

Why Ohio will cover: In the two recent meetings (1999, 2008) between the teams, the Bobcats covered both games by an average of more than 20 points.

Why Ohio State will cover: The Buckeyes are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall.

Total: Dating back to last season, Ohio has averaged only 219 total yards and scored just six offensive touchdowns in its previous four games.

Kent State Golden Flashes at Penn State Nittany Lions (-21, 45)

Why Kent State will cover: Penn State continues to prove why it is arguably the most overrated team in the nation. Some question how it could beat any team by three touchdowns or more.

Why Penn State will cover: The Nittany Lions have defeated 20 non-BCS teams in a row by an average of 34 points.

Total: The under is 8-2 in Penn State’s last 10 games at home and 6-2 in Kent State’s last eight games on the road.

Maryland Terrapins at West Virginia Mountaineers (-10, 44.5)

Why Maryland will cover: The Terrapins have covered their last four games after going just 13-23-1 ATS in their previous 37 overall.

Why West Virginia will cover: There is line value here because of West Virginia’s poor performance against Marshall. The Mountaineers are much better than perceived, plus, have an extra day to prepare.

Total: In its last four games, including against noteworthy offenses of Florida State, Boston College, and Navy, Maryland is allowing just 16.3 points per game.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Duke Blue Devils (-23.5, 57)

Why Alabama will cover: The Crimson Tide have recently been one of the best teams against the number, going 21-9 ATS since their 2007 bowl game.

Why Duke will cover: This is the perfect spot for a Blue Devil cover. Alabama has had consecutive easy victories and could be looking forward to playing at Arkansas next week.

Total: Duke’s defense is twice as bad as its offense is good. In their last five games, the Blue Devils are allowing 42 points and 484 yards per game.

Air Force Falcons at Oklahoma Sooners (-17, 54.5)

Why Air Force will cover: The Falcons are 10-6-1 ATS in away games during the coach Troy Calhoun era.

Why Oklahoma will cover: The Sooners’ run defense is unyielding. After allowing just 2.8 yards per rush a year ago, Oklahoma is giving up only 2.9 this season.

Total: Both teams’ defenses, especially Air Force’s, is better than most realize. The Sooners and Falcons ranked in the top 10 in the nation in scoring defense in 2009.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Washington Huskies (+3, 53.5)

Why Nebraska will cover: Washington’s wide-open offense plays right into Nebraska’s strength on defense. The Cornhuskers have arguably the best secondary in the country.

Why Washington will cover: The Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.

Total: Since the beginning of last season, Nebraska is allowing less than 11 points per game.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Wisconsin Badgers (-14, 46.5)

Why Arizona State will cover: The Sun Devils have been horrid when playing on the road, going 8-21-1 ATS as an away underdog since 2001, including 2-6-1 under coach Dennis Erickson.

Why Wisconsin will cover: A sub-par Arizona State team must travel nearly across the country to face one of the Big 10’s best in one of the tougher stadiums to play.

Total: The Under is 21-7-3 in Arizona State’s last 31 road games.

Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers (+14, 46)

Why Florida will cover: Despite their slow start to the season, the Gators have been one of the best teams against the number, going 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games overall.

Why Tennessee will cover: There is line value here: Florida is not the same team as previous years while the Volunteers, as they have demonstrated in recent seasons, are steadily getting better as the year progresses.

Total: This game has been a defensive battle recently. Four of the last 5 meetings have gone under the total.

Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs (-21.5, 52.5)

Why Baylor will cover: The Bears are an impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.

Why TCU will cover: Baylor’s inexperience will be no match for TCU’s tested squad, especially considering how well the Horned Frogs play at home.

Total: Although Baylor might be an untried team, directed by quarterback Robert Griffin, the Bears can put points on the board. TCU has scored 30 or more points in nine consecutive regular-season games.

Clemson at Auburn (-7.5, 55)

Why Clemson will cover: As long as they are underdogs of a touchdown or more, the Tigers’ explosive offense can nearly cover the spread by itself, especially against a below-average Auburn defense.

Why Auburn will cover: This could be another example of an ACC team exhibiting that it’s no match against another BCS team, especially when facing Auburn’s high-powered offense on the road.

Total: Playing the under would be a huge risk, considering the number of points both of these teams have scored (and allowed) the last two seasons.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers (-7.5, 43.5)

Why Mississippi State will cover: Coach Dan Mullen has his Bulldogs steadily improving, especially in their running game and defense, and it’s only a matter of time until they pull an upset on the road.

Why LSU will cover: The Tigers have owned the series, winning the last 10 in a row by an average of 27 points.

Total: Usually because of LSU’s points alone, the over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings of these teams.

Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+3, 52)

Why Texas will cover: The Longhorns pit their stout defense against a Red Raider team with no running game and a new head coach.

Why Texas Tech will cover: Texas has been disappointing and is not as good as most think. The Longhorns giving a field goal or more in this game is based purely on their reputation.

Total: Defensive-minded Tommy Tuberville and a Texas offense playing a third-stringer at left tackle while switching its main running backs should keep the combined points down.

Utah Utes at New Mexico Lobos (+22.5, 54)

Why Utah will cover: Under coach Kyle Whittingham, the Utes have thrived as heavy favorites, going 13-7 ATS as double-digit favorites, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven when giving 20 or more points.

Why New Mexico will cover: The Lobos have been playing well against conference opponents, covering four of their last five games against MWC foes.

Total: After being one of the worst teams in college football in scoring defense a season ago, New Mexico has continued the trend into 2010, allowing 124 points in its first two games.

Boise State Broncos at Wyoming Cowboys (+23.5, 52.5)

Why Boise State will cover: The Broncos want to look impressive for poll voters since their win over Virginia Tech in game one has become significantly lessened after the Hokies’ loss to James Madison.

Why Wyoming will cover: The Cowboys have covered all three games they’ve played against Boise State since 2003, plus, they are 9-3 ATS as underdogs since the start of last season.

Total: As was the case last year, Wyoming is allowing 27 points per game this season while Boise State’s reputable defense has allowed five of its last seven opponents to score 21 points or more.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Arizona Wildcats (+1.5, 42.5)

Why Iowa will cover: While the Hawkeyes are one of the better teams in the nation, Arizona is untested and unproven.

Why Arizona will cover: The Wildcats are historically tough at home and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games at Arizona Stadium.

Total: Arizona has a reputation as a defensive team; however, the Wildcats are allowing more than 26 points per game to BCS opponents since the start of the 2009 season.

Houston Cougars at UCLA Bruins (+3, 60)

Why Houston will cover: While the Cougars have forced five turnovers in two games this season, UCLA has a minus-7 turnover margin in its last four games.

Why UCLA will cover: Against non-BCS teams at home, the Bruins are nearly unbeatable, winning 23 of their last 24 games with a scoring margin of 25 points.

Total: The Over is 6-2 in Houston’s last eight road games and 6-2 in UCLA’s last eight non-conference games.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Stanford Cardinal (-17, 59.5)

Why Wake Forest will cover: Under coach Jim Grobe, the Demon Deacons always seem well prepared for the “good” teams, going 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games against teams with winning records.

Why Stanford will cover: As evident by its impressive win at UCLA, the Cardinal could be the best team in the Pac-10 and are certainly out for revenge following last year’s loss at Wake Forest.

Total: With the recent announcement that Wake Forest will start freshman Tanner Price at quarterback and “we don’t want to put too much pressure on him,” according to Grobe, points could be at a premium for this expected shootout.

Games to Watch - Week 3
By Judd Hall

Some of the big matchups of Week 2 in college football fell flat when they actually were played. There are just two games on the schedule that pits ranked squads against one another. Let’s look at them and a few other tilts that got my attention.

Arkansas at Georgia

Skinny

College football is set to where no team can afford a loss if it aspires to making big bowl appearances. But that goes double in the highly competitive SEC. And these two teams are in a scary spot as we don't know what to think of them after two games. The Bulldogs (1-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) are already behind the eight-ball after a 17-6 loss at South Carolina last weekend. Georgia's offense was held to 253 yards of offense and only converted three of its 11 third-down opportunities. The Razorbacks' (2-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) defense was up to the task last weekend as they held Louisiana-Monroe to just 188 yards in a 31-7 win in Little Rock. Couple that win with a throttling of Tennessee Tech and you have an Arkansas side with big wins that offer little to no substance as to who they really are.

Gambling Notes

Most sportsbooks opened this game up as a pick 'em but bettors quickly steamed that up to make Georgia a 2 ½-point home favorite. It makes sense that the Bulldogs are favored here as they're at home and have won six straight against Arkansas, covering the spread in four of those meetings. You actually have to go all the way back to 1993 to find the last time that the Hogs won outright in Athens. Bettors should be looking at the 'under' as a viable option as it has gone 4-2 in those last six matchups. While the 'Dogs are favored, they are just 7-4 SU and 4-7 ATS as home faves against SEC foes. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks are 2-7 SU and 6-3 ATS over the past three years as road pups against teams in the conference.

Nebraska at Washington

Skinny

Could this be the year for the Cornhuskers (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) to return as a perennial national power? It looks like that with two strong opening wins. Nebraska is helped by freshman signal caller Taylor Martinez taking its offense back to the days of old, rushing for a team-high 284 yards and five touchdowns. Yet Martinez has completed 21 of his 32 passes for 242 yards and a pick. He'll have to pick up his passing numbers against Washington. The Huskies (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) are execting big things out of Heisman hopeful Jake Locker this season. And so far he's doing his job with 555 yards and five scores through the air. Locker bounced back from his poor finish at BYU to connect on 22 of his 33 passes for 289 yards and 3 TDs last Saturday against Syracuse.

Gambling Notes

Bill Clinton was in office the last time these two schools faced off last on the gridiron. Nebraska won and covered the last two meetings between these team in 1997 and 98. Washington won and covered the meetings in 1991 and 92. The 'Huskers come into this battle as 4 ½-point road faves, up from the 3 ½-points they were initially posted at on Sunday. Bettors should know that Nebraska is just 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five road tests against non-conference teams from other BCS leagues. The 'under' was the play in thos spots, having gone 5-0. One other thing to keep an eye on that is impossible to handicap are turnovers. The Cornhuskers have 8 takeaways this season so far, but gave it back six times. Washington has only turned the ball over once on a fumbler this season. Could that rear its ugly head in Seattle?

Iowa vs. Arizona

Skinny

Who hasn't heard of the paradox that talks about an irresistible force taking on an immovable object? We're going to see that happening in Tucson as the Wildcats (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) play host to Iowa (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS). Arizona comes into this game with the 12th ranked offense nationally, picking up 503.5 yards per game. That's in large part to Nick Foles, The Wildcats' gunslinger has completed an incredible 83 percent of his passes for 574 yards and three scores this year. All he has to do this week is to take on a defense that is giving up 216.0 YPG this season. Iowa has been just flat out stingy against opposing offenses. And God help you if you make it within the red zone as the Hawkeyes have allowed just two touchdown on four trips that opponents have made into that territory. Plus, the Hawkeyes have a great of their own in Ricky Stanzi. The senior field general has connected on 70.7 percent of his passes this year for 433 yards and three touchdowns. Iowa also has its standard bruising rusher in Adam Robinson, who has rushed for four touchdown and 265 yards on 38 carries. There's a reason why they're a favorite to win the Big Ten this season.

Gambling Notes

This is a tough game for the oddsmakers to look at with as the Hawkeyes have been pushed up to 2-point road favorites. That line no doubt takes last season's 27-17 home win for Iowa over the 'Cats into consideration. Arizona tied the game at 17-17 early in the fourth quarter before the Hawkeyes scored 10 points to cover as 4-point home faves. The Hawkeyes were able to frustrate 'Zona into some short drives as they were held to just 2-for-12 on third-down conversions. Since 2007, Iowa has gone 3-1 SU and ATS when posted as a road "chalk" against non-conference foes. The Wildcats haven't fared well as home pups against non-conference teams, evidenced by a 1-7 SU and 3-4-1 ATS mark since 2000.

Other Games to Watch

Notre Dame at Michigan State

Brian Kelly and the Fighting Irish are licking their wounds after a heartbreaking loss at home to Michigan last weekend. Now they head up to East Lansing to face off with a suspect Michigan State squad. Notre Dame does take heart in knowing that they are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in its last three games as a road pup after playing the Wolverines. Only problem for Dayne Crist and Company is that the Spartans 7-3 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. Is this a let down spot for the Golden Domers?

BYU vs. Florida State

You know this matchup looked a lot better before they played last week. BYU got embarrassed at Air Force 35-14 last weekend, but the Seminoles were torched 47-17 at Oklahoma. Florida State is posted as a 9 ½-point home favorite for this game. Do you play on a team that was ripped on national television or take the team looking for revenge from a 54-28 loss in Provo from the year before?

vegasinsider.com

Caught Looking Ahead - Week 3
By Judd Hall

There weren’t any nail biters for us to really enjoy last weekend in college football. In fact, the only game that had any major national interest last Saturday that went down to the wire was Michigan’s 28-24 win as a 3 ½-point road pup against the Fighting Irish.

My first pick for a hangover play this week would have been the Hurricanes, but they take the week off before heading out to Pittsburgh. Don’t worry about that letdown spot not being here for us this week as there are plenty of games where teams are looking ahead to their next opponent.

Bearcat Concentration…

The Butch Jones era started on a down note for Cincinnati after losing 28-14 at Fresno State. And while the Bearcats are coming into their battle with North Carolina State as 1 ½-point road pups, their minds might be elsewhere. That tends to happen when you know you’re playing host to the Sooners the following weekend.

This might not be such a big deal for Zach Collaros under center as he’s looked good throwing the ball with a 60.3 completion percentage with 349 yards and three touchdowns. Cincy’s offensive line, on the other hand, could very well find themselves thinking of Oklahoma’s big, bad d-line.

The Bearcats have been just plain awful in the offensive trenches in 2010. How bad has it been? Cincy’s o-line has allowed Collaros to get sacked 10 times this season. This was a unit that gave up 15 sacks in all of 2009. The Wolfpack only had two sacks last weekend against Central Florida with a suspect defensive line. Yet they forced the Knights into throwing three interceptions.

As far as gamblers should care, Cincinnati is 3-15 straight up and 10-8 against the spread when posted as a road underdog since 1996. However, the ‘Cats are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in this role.

Slow on the Mountain…

West Virginia was flat out lucky to come back last week to pick up a 24-21 overtime road win over the Thundering Herd. Now gamblers have to debate on whether to take the Mountaineers as 10-point home favorites against border rival Maryland.

This isn’t a tough game for the Mountaineers as they’ve won and covered the spread in their last three games against the Terps. But West Virginia does have bigger fish to fry in its Sept. 28 trip to Baton Rouge to face the Tigers of the SEC.

So why could this be a bad game for Bill Stewart’s crew? Well, the ‘Neers were ugly on offense against Marshall last weekend. They found themselves turning the ball over on downs in the first quarter when they had a certain field goal to go up 6-0. Instead, they were down 7-3 to the Herd. The Mountaineers had three turnovers in total that were either due to turnovers or fumbles and they were lucky that Marshall only turned it into seven points.

Plus, the Mountaineers are just 3-2 SU as home faves against the ACC. Gamblers have been wise to fade West Virginia in those games since they were 1-4 ATS.

Pining for Smurf Turf…

It’s not every day that two teams have a date circled to meet up in Boise, but Oregon State and the Broncos have done just that for Sept. 25. Both teams also are double-digit favorites this weekend.

The Beavers welcome Louisville to town as 19 ½-point home favorites this weekend. They haven’t played since their 30-21 loss to TCU at Cowboys Stadium to open the season. While that was a quality effort, Oregon State let the Horned Frogs convert 11 of their 17 third downs. If the Cardinals can even do half as good in moving the chains, they could keep themselves within two scores.

As far as Boise State is concerned, they’ve played more in the media in the last week off because the Hokies lost to James Madison. The Broncs did need a late Kellen Moore touchdown to win 33-30 over Virginia Tech. But will that really matter for the Broncos as 23 ½-point road favorites against Wyoming?

The Cowboys may have lost 34-7 at Texas last weekend, but they played them very tough. Plus, Austyn Carta-Samuels can keep opposing defenses honest with his arm and ability to get out of the pocket to run up the field.

Now I know that there are going to be a lot of people that will say that the Broncos will cover easily. Yet Boise State has gone just 3-3 SU and 0-6 ATS when listed as a road pup after a bye week during the regular season going back to 1998. Don’t be shocked if Wyoming covers the large number in this spot.

vegasinsider.com

NCAAF REST OR RUST?
By MARC LAWRENCE

EARLY RESPITES

In the majority of cases, rest is considered advantageous for most college football teams, especially late in the season. An extra blow not only helps heal tired bodies but also gives coaches a chance to better study an opponent’s game film in greater detail. However, rested teams during the opening month of the season tend to develop dichotic personalities.

RESTED TEAMS OFF A SEASON OPENING LOSS TEND TO STRUGGLE

A week of rest right out of the box in a new season, however, can either help or hinder a team depending on their previous effort and venue. In college football, teams in Game Two, playing off a LOSS with a week of rest, are just 56-70 ATS, including 28-43 ATS when on the road.

This week we find North Carolina and Oregon State (both home) in this not-so-desirable role.

RESTED TEAMS OFF A SEASON OPENING WIN TEND TO PERFORM WELL

On the other side of the coin, college football teams in Game Two, playing off a WIN with a week of rest, are 114-84-4 ATS, with Boise State, Fresno State and Indiana are in this role this week.

When playing foes with wobbly defenses (allow 27 or more PPG on the season), these rested winners improve to 36-14 ATS. Boise State and Indiana fit the bill on Saturday. That’s this week’s wake-up call. You know what to do...

Big Chalk, No Whammies - Week 3
By Bodog

There are no chalk monsters in your closet or under your bed. But you might be feeling a little antsy these days when you bet on college football favorites. After years of covering fat spreads during non-conference play, the big-name programs are getting slapped around by the little guys. Faves of 20 points or more went 12-0 SU and 5-7 ATS in Week 2. That’s a grand total of 26-0 SU and 11-14-1 ATS as we head into Week 3.

Our two recommended giants from last week ended up splitting the cash, as well. The Nebraska Cornhuskers (-27.5) were well on their way to destroying the Idaho Vandals, going up 31-3 at halftime. But the ‘Huskers offense committed four turnovers, and Idaho scored a touchdown for the matador cover with under three minutes remaining. No such problems with the Kentucky Wildcats (-28), though, as they kept the heat on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers all game long in a 63-28 final.

Week 3 traditionally sees fewer giant favorites on the college football odds board. But we’ve still got some potential blowouts on our hands, and the top two antagonists happen to be the top two teams in college football today.

Alabama at Duke

Wasn’t Alabama’s defense supposed to be its weak point? The Crimson Tide are 2-0 SU and ATS after two games, holding the San Jose State Spartans (+38.5) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (+14.5) to one field goal apiece. The Tide offense did its part despite the absence of Heisman-winning tailback Mark Ingram; Trent Richardson rolled over Penn State for 144 yards (6.5 yards per carry), and QB Greg McElroy is pick-free after two games with a 72.5-percent completion rate.

Ingram returned to practice on Monday for the first time since having his left knee scoped on August 31, but his status against Duke has yet to be determined. Coach Nick Saban does appear inclined, however, to make sure Ingram gets in at least a few carries against Duke in preparation for SEC play. Meanwhile, the Tide defense promises to get even better now that DE Marcell Dareus (6.5 sacks last year) has served his two-game suspension for accepting improper benefits.

The Blue Devils (1-1 SU and ATS) are no longer the laughingstock they were since their last bowl appearance in 1994. David Cutcliffe, formerly the head coach at Ole Miss, has changed the culture in Durham for the better. But there is still a lot of work to do before Duke can consider itself a serious threat in the ACC. The defense is awful, as witnessed in last week’s 54-48 loss to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-3.5 on the road). And new starting QB Sean Renfree tossed three interceptions to Wake along with his four touchdown passes. Alabama’s defense might outscore Duke’s offense in this matchup.

Ohio at Ohio State

Anything can happen in college football, but it’s easy to picture the Crimson Tide and the Buckeyes (2-0 SU and ATS) going at it in the BCS Championship Game. It’s all systems go for Ohio State thus far; the Marshall Thundering Herd (+28) were massacred 45-7, and the Miami Hurricanes (+8) were quelled 36-24. The only concern was Miami’s ability to score touchdowns on both a kick return and a punt return.

It doesn’t look like Buckeyes QB Terrelle Pryor is getting much Heisman love from the peanut gallery. Maybe it’s because he, like Vince Young before him, does so much damage on his feet. Pryor ran for 113 yards (5.7 yards per carry) and a touchdown against the Hurricanes and passed for another, all without throwing an interception. He was also virtually mistake-free against Marshall, which looks even better on his resume after the Herd nearly beat the West Virginia Mountaineers last week.

The Bobcats (1-1 SU and ATS) have some good things going for them. They’re the defending MAC East champions, and they’re 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against winning teams. But something is not quite right with QB Boo Jackson. He coughed up three interceptions in last week’s 20-13 loss to the visiting Toledo Rockets (+10), just like he did two years ago against Ohio State. The Bobcats managed to cover that game, losing 26-14 as 33.5-point road dogs, but that was before Todd Boeckman (16-of-26 for 110 yards and zero TDs) lost his starting QB job to Pryor. The Buckeyes will be motivated to make amends on Saturday.

Streaks, Trends, Notes!!
By Sportspic

Notre Dame at Michigan State

The Fighting Irish off a heartbreaking 28-24 home loss to Michigan last week head into East Lansing to square off against Michigan State. Fighting Irish won last years encounter (33-30) but historically Michigan State plays well against Notre Dame having won nine of the past thirteen meetings (10-2-1 ATS). Well to note most of the damage occurred in South Bend where Michigan State has notched a 6-1 (7-0 ATS) mark where-as here in Spartan Stadium they've split six against Irish (2-3-1 ATS). Notre Dame backers can take comfort knowing Irish are 12-2 ATS on the road as underdogs of 6 or less while Spartans come in on a 2-7 ATS stretch at home laying 6 or less points.

Arizona State at Wisconsin

Welcoming back ten starters from the Big Ten's highest scoring offense in 2009 the Badgers showed no offensive weaknesses in recording 68 points against UNLV (41-21), San Jose State (27-14). However, Badgers did surrender a combined 357 passing yards and four majors in those two games. Brings up the question, are Badgers up to the challenge of pass-happy Sun Devils who threw for 705 yards and five scores in crushing Portland State (54-9), Northern Arizona (41-20). Also, Sun Devils return seven starters on a defense that was tops in the Pac-10 giving up 21 PPG on 298 yards/game. Spread-wise Badgers are on a 2-7 ATS skid laying double digits, 0-11 ATS vs good defensive teams allowing =< 310 YPG. Sun Devils bag the cash against Big Ten foes going 8-1 ATS.

Defenseless Puppies
By Cajun Sports

This weeks system isolates a team coming off a poor defensive performance in their last game. In most cases, you would expect them to bounce back especially at home in the role of underdog but as our system indicates this is not a good situation for these defenseless home puppies.

SYSTEM: In games, 2 thru 11 play AGAINST non-conference home underdogs of 1.5 to 6 points when coming off a conference game allowing 41 or more points.

Non-conference home teams have simply not recovered even in the role of underdog after their defense completely collapsed against a conference opponent in their last outing.

Since 1992, this system has been active thirteen times and in each instance, this home underdog lost straight up and against the spread. They average losing against the spread by more than twelve points per game and straight up by more than sixteen points per game.

With all the system parameters met, this weeks Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week qualifies the Memphis Tigers as our Play AGAINST team when they face Mid Tennessee State on Saturday night. Play ON Mid Tennessee State.

Bad Betting Assumptions Heading Into Week 3
By ADAM THOMPSON

We all saw Virginia Tech humbled by James Madison last Saturday. We have seen Alabama dominate its opposition as well as Ohio State and Oklahoma humble Miami and Florida State, respectively.

But should we have it all figured out based on what we’ve seen? Maybe, maybe not.

Here are five bad assumptions to make heading into Week 3 of the college football season. But remember, in the immortal words of Samuel L. Jackson, “When you make an assumption, you make an ass outta you, and umption.”

Virginia Tech’s season is over

Virginia Tech had its national title hopes dashed in its season opener, losing its anticipated game with Boise State. Then the wheels really came off in the biggest stunner of the year, a home loss to FCS powerhouse James Madison.

Still, these Hokies were considered a favorite in the ACC and history has shown that a bad loss to a good FCS team doesn’t mean the season’s a bust.

Michigan was on the wrong end of the most famous FCS-defeat ever, to Appalachian State in 2007. After another loss to Oregon, the Wolverines won their next eight games and went on to beat Florida in a bowl game.

Alabama’s defense is untouchable

The Crimson Tide’s defense has dominated its first two opponents, beating San Jose State 42-3 and No. 19 Penn State 24-3. And that was without suspended standout defensive end Marcell Dareus.

But consider that San Jose State was picked for the dead last in the WAC and Penn State was led by a true freshman at QB.

The Penn State game could have been much closer had the Lions not turned the ball over three times on Alabama’s side of the field.

Duke won’t provide much of a challenge this week, but Arkansas, Florida and South Carolina, the Tide’s following three foes, certainly will.

The ACC will rebound

College football guru Phil Steele predicted the ACC would challenge the Big Ten as the third-best conference in the nation (behind the SEC and Big 12). He was one of many who expected a rise of the east-coast league. That isn’t happening.

The ACC’s elite struggled in the high-profile games and Virginia Tech’s losses are just the start. Miami proved unready for a return to national prominence, defeated by Ohio State 36-24. Florida State’s attempted ascension back into the limelight was even worse, overwhelmed 47-17 at Oklahoma. Finally, defending ACC champion Georgia Tech looked miserable in a loss to an underwhelming Kansas team that was beaten by North Dakota State 6-3 the week before.

Miami is the only ranked team going into Week 3. On Saturday, the ACC gets a few final chances for redemption: Clemson is at No. 16 Auburn and Wake Forest is at No. 19 Stanford.

Oregon’s scoring is due to opposition

Oregon’s offense has been overwhelming. The Ducks unleashed a 72-spot on lowly New Mexico in its opener, then trailed at proud Tennessee 13-3 before exploding for 45 consecutive points in a 48-13 victory.

The lightning-quick scoring strikes were impression in Knoxville, with TD plays of 72, 76 and 80 yards on offense, defense and special teams.

But it isn’t a fluke. The Ducks return nine offensive starters from a team that averaged 36.1 points per game in 2009 and 41.9 ppg in 2008. That includes RB LaMichael James, who had 1,608 yards and 14 TD. Oregon will be very fun to watch all season long.

The ACC is the worst BCS conference around

As bad as the ACC has been (see above for the carnage) it is hardly in contention for the worst BCS conference so far.

Now is the time when teams load up on cupcakes to ensure a bowl berth and perhaps play a marquee game to garner national prestige. But the Big East isn’t even winning the cupcakes.

The league as a whole is only 10-6, by far the worst among the BCS leagues. The only teams still unbeaten are West Virginia (opponents Coastal Carolina and Marshall) and Rutgers (Norfolk State and Florida International).

Against other BCS teams, the Big East is 0-4 and 0-2 against WAC and Mountain West teams, too.

Study Hall - Week 3
By Judd Hall

Respect is a tough thing to gain from experts and is way too easy to lose. We don’t have to look further than what has happened in two weeks of college football action to understand that issue. The Big East fell flat on its face in Week 1 with the Bearcats, Huskies and Panthers all losing. Last week was the ACC’s turn to look like a bunch of fools as the Hokies, Hurricanes and Yellow Jackets were embarrassed.

I bring up respect because that is what this week’s edition of Study Hall is all about. Or more specifically, the lack of it going on for teams at the betting shops.

One game where respect is lacking is down in Athens, where the unranked Bulldogs are 2 ½-point home favorites against 12th-ranked Arkansas at 12:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday.

Now if we’re just looking at quality of loss to overtake a team that is unbeaten, then Georgia has that easily covered. The Bulldogs fell 17-6 at South Carolina last weekend. And while the score doesn’t sound too close since they were three-point road pups, they had their chances. Georgia suffered two debilitating three-and-outs to start out the fourth quarter when they were still within eight points.

On the other side of the field are the Razorbacks, who have outscored their opponents 75-10 in two games. Of course, those two games have been against Tennessee Tech and Louisiana-Monroe. Heisman hopeful Ryan Mallett has been spot on with his throws, connecting on 70 of them for 701 yards and six touchdowns.

So why would a team that is highly ranked with a good quarterback be posted as a road pup against a team that is coming off of a loss? It might be as simple as the conference they play in.

“Every team heading on the road in the SEC is going to be an underdog if the talent levels between the schools are fairly close,” says VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Jason Johnson. “The environment in these huge stadiums is simply intimidating for the road team and the noise factor is certainly a distraction.”

There could be something to what “The Man of March” is saying. Arkansas has gone 0-4 straight up and 2-2 against the spread in Mallet’s four regular season road tests. Plus, the Bulldogs are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS against the Hogs since 2000. It makes you wonder if the Razorbacks have the wherewithal to take it to the next level under Bobby Petrino.

Speaking of things that make you wonder, here are the biggest line movers in college football, thanks to Sportsbook.com’s Dave Staley.

Nothing really shocking about many of those lines and the adjustments they made on these games. But the jury is still out on the Huskies as 6 ½-point road favorites against Temple.

It’s no secret that I hold the Huskies as arguably the best team in the Big East. But as we’ve seen early on in the season, that isn’t saying a whole hell of a lot. Connecticut was dismantled 30-10 on the road by the Wolverines to start the year. I know that they killed Texas Southern 62-3 on Sept. 11, but the foul taste is still on the minds of the public.

Undefeated Temple can actually claim they’ve played a tougher schedule up until this point, having beaten Villanova and Central Michigan. However, the Owls might have some issues in their ground game. Bernard Pierce has been upgraded to “probable” for this contest after injuring his hand against Central Michigan. Of course, a bigger issue for Temple is not having Wayne Tribue on the offensive line to give Pierce a hole to run through.

The trend may dictate it doesn’t matter who the Owls have out on the field. That’s because Temple is 2-3 SU in its last five head-to-head meetings, but a stellar 5-0 ATS. Hard to argue with numbers like that.

vegasinsider.com

NCAAF News and Notes
Phil Steele

Wisconsin took their opening drive vs San Jose St 80/8pl for a TD and took their 2nd drive for an apparent TD but fmbl’d into the end zone for a touchback. At the half they only led 17-0 with a 203-110 yd edge and SJSt got two 2H TD’s, the latter with 5:45 left only to lose 27-14.

Michigan St’s secondary was a problem last year and Florida Atl, basically playing a road game at Ford Field in Detroit, had their QB Jeff Van Camp hit 23-35-215 yds despite the fact FAU has zero returning st’rs on the O-line.

UConn scored the 1st 5x they had the ball vs TX Southern and allowed just 1 FD in the 1H while rolling up 288 total yards offense. RB Jordan Todman rushed for 151 yds, his 7th career 100 yd game and did not play in the 2H.

Northwestern scored on their first poss vs Illinois St and led 30-3 at the half. It was just 17-3 when NU took over with 4:24 left 1H on an int. They went 60/6pl for a TD and following a 2nd int with just :28 left in the half, they went 22/3pl for a TD with :10 left for that lead.

Wake Forest had their 2nd consecutive 50 pt game for the first time in school history and won the 2nd highest scoring game in ACC history, 54-48 over Duke. In the 1H Ted Stachitas who hit 0-4 with 1 int shared time with Tanner Price. Price played the entire 2H for WF and hit 12-19-190. WF led 48-41 when they took over with 8:45 left and went 79/13pl for a TD with 2:53 left. Duke was int’d with 2:16 left then after a punt got a 51 yd TD with 1:39 left but WF rec’d the onside kick and ran out the clock.

Pitt got a TD with :18 left 1H to take a 17-3 lead and only had a 167-122 yd edge. New Hampshire did drive 67/13pl for a garbage TD with 1:13 left while trailing 38-10.

East Carolina only had a 425-413 yd edge vs Memphis but their 3-0 TO edge was huge as Memphis fmbl’d at their own 12 & 24 yd lines setting up 2 TD drives consisting of 36 total yards and also gave up a 41 yard IR TD. Those 3 TD’s turned out to be a big difference in the 49-27 game.

Cincinnati led 12-7 at the half and after losing just 2 fumbles all of 2009, lost 2 in the 1H against lowly Indiana St which came in with a 3-55 record over the last six years. They left the field to a smattering of boos but did score TD’s on their first 4 poss of the 2H although one was on a 10 yd drive after ISt fumbled the punt snap. ISU was SOD at the UC9 and missed a 36 yd FG in the 4Q in UC’s 40-7 win.

Western Illinois and Purdue were tied at 7 when W Illinois went on a 72/14pl drive but missed a 37 yd FG. WI went on a 51/9pl drive but was SOD at the PU29 with 3:17 left in the half. PU went 71/14pl for a TD with just :18 left then WI fmbl’d the KO and PU added a 36 yd FG to lead by 10 despite only having a 228-191 yd edge. Each team finished with 22 FD and WI had a 406-402 yd edge.

Iowa scored TD’s on their first 3 poss over rival Iowa St and then their 5th poss went 66 yds for a TD. At the half they led 28-0 with a 279-85 yd edge. While ISU was int’d at the UI3 in the 3Q, the Hawkeyes led 35-0 when ISU took over with 3:37 left and went 71/6pl for a garbage TD with 1:51 left marking the 1st time the Cyclones scored an offensive TD in the annual series since 2006.

Turnovers were the key in the USF/Florida game. USF went on a 96/17pl drive for a TD in the 1Q and led 7-0 and had the ball back with 2:14 left in the half when the game started to turn on USF’s first TO of the game, an int at their own 29. UF got a TD 3pl later, 7-7 at the half. USF had a FD at the UF16 threatening to retake the lead and fmbl’d and the Gators got a 62 yd TD run 3pl later. A 30 yd PR set up UF for a 35 yd drive for a TD and they then got a 35 yd IR TD and stunningly led 28-7. USF made it 28-14 on a 69 yd drive but UF got a 22 yd FG with 12:20 left and following yet another TO (int) went 57/13pl for the clinching TD.

As you would expect with both Georgia Southern and Navy running the triple option offense, the D’s played well. In fact Navy had a just 9-8 FD edge and 193-109 yd edge in the game. Navy got a 55 yd KR to set up an 18 yd FG then after a fmbl, drove 1 yd for a 42 yd FG. After a fake punt was stopped at the GS40, Navy drove 40/8pl for a TD to lead 13-0 at the half with a 113-23 yd edge. GS got a 4&8, 17 yd TD pass to open the 3Q, 13-7. GS punted with 6:08 left and Navy would convert on 3&11, 3&10 and 3&8 running out the clock at the GS9. GS QB Jaybo Shaw is a GT transfer.

Oklahoma’s Landry Jones completed less than 50% of his passes in the opener vs Utah St while Florida St dominated Samford. Jones hit 30-40 for 380 yds vs FSU while Heisman candidate Christian Ponder hit 11-28-113. The game was even more lopsided than the 47-17 final. FSU got 4 FD’s on their first series but then just 5 over the next 2.5Q’s. In fact OU led 47-10 when Florida St went 71/7pl and on 3&10 on the last play of the game got a 47 yd garbage TD pass.

While Cal did indeed dominate Colorado with their 52-7 win they did just have 18-17 FD and 356-239 yd edges. They got a 41 yd IR TD with :11 left 1H and then at the end of the game, CU got 2 FD’s to the Cal29 but was int’d again and this time ret’d 82 yds for a TD with :28 left in the game.

Utah/UNLV was actually a lot closer than the final score would indicate. In fact, UNLV had an 18-14 FD edge and if not for spec tms, would have had a shot at the game. Utah got a 30 yd PR setting up a 5 yd drive for a 44 yd FG. UNLV fmbl’d a punt at their own 20 setting up a Utah TD pass on the next play with just :32 left 1H, 17-3. Utah blk’d a punt and ret’d it 19 yds for a TD then got a 77 yd PR TD by Smithson, 31-10. UNLV had a bad snap on the punt and while their P got the punt off, it went for -20 yds and that set up a 33 yd Utah TD drive and a 38-10 lead. UNLV had a 1st & gl at the 1 but was SOD and on their next drive had a 4th & gl at the 1 and were SOD.

While Clemson only beat Presbyterian 58-21 they led 52-0 mid3Q. In fact, in the 1Q CU played 57 different players and took advantage of some short field position so the stats were not overwhelming as they only had a 414-279 yd edge.

Louisville only beat E Kentucky by 10 but the game was not that close. In the 1H UL led 23-0 with a 290-93 yd edge. The Cards were at the EK27 with that lead mid3Q when they were int’d on 2nd & 4 and ret’d 80 yds for a TD. EK took over with 6:48 left and punted on 4&14 but roughing the P gave them a FD. They got a 41 yd run 2pl later then on 4th & 1 a TD with 2:28 to make it 23-13.

There were a couple of key stories in the Michigan/Notre Dame game. First, UM QB Denard Robinson had another record breaking performance as his 502 yds broke the UM QB record he set the previous week vs Connecticut (383). He rushed for 258 yds, another UM QB record. The other story was that ND QB Crist played just the 1st series in the 1H and that was a ND TD drive in which he was banged up. Tommy Rees and Nate Montana combined for 8 series is his place hitting 8-19-104 yd and both threw an int. Rees’ int was followed by a 30/1pl TD pass by Robinson. UM did miss 39 and 40 yd FG’s in the 2H but needed a Robinson TD run with :27 left for the lead. ND got to the UM27 but Crist’s final pass was incomplete.

Gary Patterson has gone out of his way to not roll it up the last 2 weeks and he better get over it because it may cost TCU a shot at the National Title. Versus Oreg St he didn’t want to tack on to a slim 9 pt lead at the end of the game and vs Tenn Tech, running the ball with a backup FB he apologized to TT for scoring a TD with 4:09 left. Coach Patterson - Isn’t it the responsibility of the opposing team to stop you? If you are using backup players - what’s the harm in scoring TD’s? Especially if you are not throwing the football. Last year TCU put the hammer down on foes and nearly made it to play in the National Title game if Texas would have missed the FG in the Big 12 Title Game. Patterson better change his approach to the games for the remainder of the season or they will not get to the big show.

Arkansas St QB Ryan Aplin hit a school record 438 yds passing but Louisiana led 31-7 heading into the 4Q. ASU still got the ball back at their own 31 with 2:22 left, down by 7 but Aplin was int’d on 3&10.

Miami, FL’s special teams kept them in the game vs Ohio St in the 1H as they had an 88 yd KR and 79 yd PR TD’s and only trailed 26-17 despite being outgained 260-103. It marked the first time since OSU began keeping records in 1936 that the Bucks allowed a KR and PR TD in the same game. Two key factors were in Ohio St’s favor in this one as Terrelle Pryor was the more mobile QB rushing for 113 yds while Harris had just 8 and Harris threw 4 int’s to Pryor’s none. Miami trailed 26-17 early 3Q when DL Heyward dropped back after faking a blitz and int’d a pass and ret’d it 80 yds to the UM15 setting up a TD. The Buckeyes had a 39 yd FG blk’d and settled for a 24 yd FG on their next 2 drives, and then on their final drive took over at their 39 with 7:31 left and converted on 3&5, 4&1, 3&7 and got a 1st & gl at the 6 and took a knee.

Tennessee played a much better game than the final score would indicate. The Vols actually led 13-3 after a 1 hour long lighting delay in the 2Q with the Ducks getting a 42 yd FG with 2:56 left in the half then going 62/5pl for a 27 yd TD pass with 1:04 left, 13-13. UT had a 244-200 yd edge at the half. Two key plays happened in the next 5:00. UO got a 72 yd TD run by James to take their first lead and then with UT having a FD at the Duck24, on 3rd & 13, Simmons was not only int, but ret’d 76 yds for a TD putting UT in a 2 TD hole. UO got a TD with 11:39 left and added an 80 yd PR TD with 11:39 left and backup QB Costa led them 51/10pl for a TD with 3:54 left for the 35 pt blowout.

Penn St actually played closer than the final would indicate vs Alabama. In the 1H they had a 3rd & 8 at the Tide 20 at the end of a 10pl drive but was int at the 3. They had a 2&6 at the Tide 16 after a 68 yd drive but fmbl’d and it was ret’d 75 yds. In the 3Q PSU had a 3&8 from the Bama26 but was int at the 13 and PSU’s final drive ended on an int at the Bama25. While Bama only had a 19-17 FD edge, a 4-1 TO edge was the key.

Hawaii scored TD’s on 3 of their first 4 poss to lead 21-0. Army trailed 21-7 at the half and UH had a 240-99 yd edge. Army took advantage of some crucial TO’s in the 2H driving 24 & 11 yds for TD’s after TO’s. Their first TD of the 3Q came after they lined up for a 19 yd FG and UH was called for too many men on the field and they went for it on 4th & gl at the 1. With the game tied at 28, Army had a 37 yd FG blk’d with 7:02 left and then was setting up for the game winning FG when they fmbl’d at the UH27 with :24 left. UH went 59/4pl and got a 31 yd FG with :07 left for the win.

At the half Baylor had a 329-153 yd edge and Robert Griffin did not play the entire 4Q as the Bears opted to rest him leading 34-6.

Tulsa had a 31-18 FD edge vs BG and in the 1H had a 360-146 yd edge. BG, after a fmbl, went 44 yds for a TD to take an early 7-0 lead but TU led 20-7 and had the ball late 1H when they were int’d and ret’d to the 1 setting up a BG TD. TU still got a TD with :32 left in the half to lead 27-14. TU settled for 34 & 46 yd FG’s in the 3Q to extend it to 33-14 and was SOD at the BG28 in the 4Q and finished the game at the BG14 taking a knee.

LSU has now won 11 of their last 12 vs Vanderbilt and held VU to 31 pts combined the past 6 games. LSU and VU was closer than the final indicates even though LSU had 21-8 FD and 392-135 yd edges. The first 5 poss of the game were 3 & outs and LSU led 10-0 at the half with a 127-(-7) yd edge. VU had a 1st & gl to the LSU8 but settled for a 23 yd FG. LSU was int’d in the endzone from the VU13 and settled for a 23 yd FG and after that VU fmbl’d the KO at their own 26 and 4pl later LSU added a TD. VU got to the LSU31 but punted and 4pl later Ridley broke off a 65 yd TD run to extend the margin with 4:34 left.

It was a wild game between Troy and Oklahoma St. In the 1H there were 3 long drives of 11, 12 and 10 plays that all resulted in short FG’s incl a 22 yd’r by OSU which put them up 6-3. The 2Q featured 41 pts and 100 yd KO return by Jernigan put Troy up 27-20 at the half. OSU drove for a TD to open the 3Q then got a 66 yd PR TD to lead. In the 4Q Troy fmbl’d at the OSU 2, 10 and 35. They got a TD and 2 pt conv with 4:00 left to pull within 41-38. OSU was about to take a knee on 1st & 20 from the Troy34 but QB Weeden fmbl’d and Troy had 1 shot left but QB Robinson was sk’d and fumbled on the next play and OSU held on for the 3 pt win.

Toledo only had 13-11 FD edge and 212-183 yd edge while UT did have one solid offensive drive where they went 84/14pl for a TD, their other 2 TD’s both came after int. They got a 28 yd IR to the 2 setting up a 2pl TD “drive” and a 20 yd IR to the 5 setting up a 3pl drive for another TD. UT did miss a 40 and a 41 yd FG in the 2H.

Nebraska took advantage of six TO’s. Idaho QB Nathan Enderle, a Nebraska native had 5 int’s and when the Huskers got 40 and 47 IR TD’s just before the half, they took a 31-0 lead. Idaho gained 60 of their yds on 12pl drive getting a 34 yd FG on the 1H's final play. The Huskers had numerous opportunities to turn it into a blowout leading 38-10 they got an IR to the ID21. With backup QB Green in, they were SOD on 4th & 1 at the 13. ID fmbl’d it at their own 4 yd line but NU fmbl’d it back at the 2 with 6:19 left and ID gained 98 of their yds on a 10pl drive for a TD with 2:31 left. NU ended the game at the ID23.

Arizona’s defense struggled during August and the offense was clearly ahead of it. They had just 4 returning starters so it was a major question mark heading into the season. In the first game vs Toledo, the Rockets’ only score came on a safety so they had zero offensive points. The Citadel had just 10 FD’s but did manage a 39 yd FG with 6:55 left in the 3Q, the first offensive score on Arizona all year and they would later add a 23 yd FG with 9:08 left. Arizona dominated the game with a 52-6 win and finished with a 489-171 yd edge.

Northern Arizona made a game of it with Arizona St despite the fact they were outgained 450-238. ASU jumped out to a 14-3 lead but after a 34 yd IR to the 10 NA got a TD just before the half and only trailed 17-10. ASU extended it to 27-13 but NA drove 80/6pl for a 35 yd TD pass with :21 left in the 3Q to pull within 27-20. ASU went 80/8pl, 25/3pl (after 49 yd PR) for TD’s and then blocked a punt with 3:25 left and took over at the NA26. After 1 FD they ended the game at the NA10.

Last year all of the teams that were coming off a short week struggled with the exception of 1. That was Cincinnati which was playing a IAA team. Maryland was playing a IAA team and perhaps that helped them recover from upsetting Navy on Monday then playing again on Saturday. Maryland flat out dominated holding Morgan St to 10 yards offense in the 1H. They scored 2 TD’s and a FG on their first 3 poss, got a 14 yd IR TD and another int set up backup QB O’Brien who came in with 9:36 left 2Q. He threw TD passes of 27, 24 and 22 yds in the 2Q and it was 45-0 at the half. Morgan St’s only scoring drive was kept alive by a 3&9 roughing the QB penalty on an interception. On 3&10 they were sacked for a 3 yd loss and a face mask moved it ahead and they were able to get a 39 yard FG with 4:39 left. Maryland got TD’s with 9:48 and 5:13 left to extend the margin to 62-3, their biggest margin of victory since 2003.

Missouri’s domination of McNeese St was complete as QB Gabbert hit his first 15 passes before his first incompletion in the 2Q. Frosh Henry Jose had TD’s on 3 of his first 4 carries including a 62 yarder at the start of the 2Q which made it 21-0. It was 33-0 at the half with a 303-82 yd edge and extended to 50-0 after 3Q’s. McNeese brought in backup QB Stroud who led them 65/8pl for a TD with 11:27 left to break the shutout.

Last week Mississippi had a 21-point lead over Jacksonville St but let up in the 2H and ended up losing so you would not have thought they would have let up vs Tulane. Once again Ole Miss jumped out to a 24-3 halftime lead and appeared on their way to a rout but amazingly in the 2H Tulane opened with a 22/9pl, 84/12pl drives. The first ended in fumble and the 2nd in a TD. They then went 48/5pl and got a 38 yd FG to pull within 24-13. Mississippi got a 29 yd FG with 8:00 left and with :56 left Tulane had a 4th & 21 on their own 20 and was sk’d and fumbled. Mississippi fell on it at the 10 and took a knee 2x.

While Ryan Mallett threw for 400 yards vs ULM, Arkansas appeared anything but an offensive juggernaut. They fumbled at the ULM42 and then drove 74/7pl for a TD. They were SOD at the ULM43, punted from their own 41 and punted from the ULM40 and then were int’d at the ULM32 in the 1H. Somehow they had a 217-58 yard edge but only led 7-0. Arkansas took its 2nd 3Q poss 33/7pl for a TD (after 13 yd PR) and 2 poss later went 40/10pl for a 46 yd FG, 17-0 with 12:53 left. Each team went on a TD drive, 24-7 (5:12). Arkansas finally got a 35 yd TD pass with 3:23 left for some breathing room, 31-7. They did have a 26-10 FD and 499-188 yard edges.

Last year teams playing on a short week all struggled in the 2nd week of the season. Virginia Tech was coming off of a disappointing Monday Night loss to Boise and playing on a very short week vs a IAA foe, James Madison. James Madison does come from the powerful Colonial Div. Remember, my SEC Regional Magazine has 175 pages on FCS football including a complete full page on each team! VT did not show lingering side effects as they took their opening drive 94/17pl for a TD then went 44/5pl but fumbled at the JM35 then went 55/10pl settling for a 30 yd FG. They led 10-0 and JM had just 1 FD to VT’s 12. The game turned on a 3&17 screen pass to Sullivan which he took 77 yards for a TD. VT went 36 yards for a 41 yd FG with :12 left in the half but only led 13-7 despite a 200-105 yard edge and 15-1 FD edge. VT opened the 3Q with a 49/7pl drive for a 28 yd FG, 16-7. JM went 66/15pl for a TD then after an int, went 62/8pl. On 4th & 3 they went for it and got a 12 yd TD run by QB Dudzik to lead 21-16. VT on 4&2 was SOD at the JM17 with 9:41 left and then fmbl’d at the JM19 on 2&1 with 5:21 left. JM got 2 FD and while they punted on 4&15, VT roughed the P and JM ran out the clock.

Andre Ware over the summer called for Wyoming to upset Texas and Mack Brown was very mindful of that. After handing off most of the opener, Gilbert hit 22-35 passing for 222 yards for the Longhorns. UT had 29-13 FD and 389-257 yard edges. WY was playing just 6 days after the death of frosh LB Ruben Narcisse who was killed in a car accident. UT’s first 5 drives resulted in 2 FG’s and 3 punts and WY actually led 7-6. Trailing 27-7 Wyoming faked a 35 yd FG and were SOD at the Texas 20, were SOD at the UT15 on the next drive and were SOD at the UT36 with 5:09 left. UT got a 64/10pl drive for a TD with :54 left for some breathing room in a game closer than the 34-7 score.

Montana St led almost the entire game vs Washington St. WSU had 2 turnovers and Montana St drove 9 and 48 yards for 31 and 33 yard FG’s to lead 6-0. WSU went on a 95/7pl drive keyed by a 70 yd Montgomery run and on 4th & 1 Montgomery’s 3 yd TD run made it 7-6. MSt went 80/7pl for a TD to lead 13-7 and missed a 52 yd FG with :25 left in the half. It seemed like MSt was on their way to the win. They got a 45 yd TD pass with 7:53 left in the 3Q and WSU fumbled the KO setting up a MSt 29 yd FG and it was 22-7. MSt was driving again when they were int’d at the WSU46 with 2:29 left in the 3Q. WSU got a TD on the first play of the 4Q. MSt got to the WSU33 but was SOD and the Cougars got a 19 yard TD pass with 5:06 left but missed the 2 pt conversion. MSt 2 plays later was int’d and ret’d to the 2 and WSU settled for an 18 yard FG but took the lead, 23-22 with 2:13 left. MSt was int’d at the WSU22 with :51 left.

For the 2nd straight week North Texas outgained its opponent but lost. This time they had a 420-351 yard edge. In fact at the half, NT had a 9-3 FD edge but trailed 23-21. NT led most of the 2H but Rice took the lead with 6:22 left on a TD, 32-31. NT punted with 4:56 left and their last drive ended at the Rice 47. The game might have signaled a change at QB for Rice. Taylor McHargue started again and did hit a 51 yard TD pass on his first play but then guided the team to just 1 FD on 5 poss. Nick Fanuzzi came in and hit passes of 22, 27 and 31 yards in the final 3:18 of the 1H and QB’d the entire 2H.

Ball St was outFD’d by Liberty 23-19 and outgained by their IAA foe 395-338 but a couple of key 3rd down conversions by Liberty and a couple of blown opportunities hurt Ball St. On Liberty’s first drive they converted on 3&10 then on 3&8 got a 21-yard TD pass. Ball St, trailing 14-3 was stopped on 4&2 at the Liberty 19. On 3&11 Liberty got a 65 yd TD pass in the 3Q to take the lead, 21-17. Ball St blew 2 opportunities. They had a 1st & gl at the 5 and settled for a 22 yd FG then had a 1st & gl at the 2 and settled for a 21 yd FG and only led 23-21. Liberty got a TD with 4:55 left to take the lead and BS got to the Liberty26 but were SOD.

Sometimes you can see things coming. Minnesota always struggles with the Dakota schools. In 2006 they played North Dakota St and were generally outplayed the entire game but somehow escaped with a close win. The next year NDSt beat them outright in the Metrodome. Last year UM barely got past South Dakota St 16-13. This year SD QB Dante Warren hit 21-30-352 yards and also rushed for 81. SD led the majority of the game and got some key plays in long yardage situations. Leading 7-3 they had a 3&gl from the 14 yd line and got a TD pass. With 1:51 left in the half they faced a 3rd & 13 and got a 26-yard TD pass. Leading 34-31 they went for it on 4th & 1 and Warren got a 36 yd TD run for a 41-31 lead. Minny, after scoring a TD with 3:31 left opted to kick off deep and SD got 1 FD and took a knee.

Syracuse played well vs Washington jumping out to a 10-0 lead after 2 series. UW went on 11 and 13pl drives for FG’s and trailed 10-6 when SU fumbled the KO at their own 22 and UW got a TD with 4:09 left in the half to lead 13-10. At half UW only had a 168-152 yard edge. A couple of big plays broke it open in the 2H. On the first play of the 3Q Locker hit Kearse with a short pass that he took 57 yards for a TD. Two poss later Locker hit Kearse with a 28 yard TD pass and then leading 27-13 Polk got a 52 yd TD run with 10:04 left to ice it. UW recovered an onside kick and got a 44/2pl drive for a TD with 6:33 left to win by 21.

USC was outFD’d by UVA 23-18 and outgained 333-327. Their offense struggled most of the game but they did get 2 TD’s in the last 3:43 of the 1H to lead 14-7 at the half. UVA did get 78 yards and 4 FD’s after taking over with 2:35 left in the game going 78/13pl. The drive included 4&3 and 4&13 conversions and they got a 3 yd TD pass with :04 left.

Middle Tennessee was actually down to their 3rd string QB as Dasher was still suspended and starting QB Kilgore was out. MT jumped out to a 35-10 lead but Austin Peay got an int with :19 left in the half and went 50/3pl for a TD to make it 35-17. AP settled for a 20 yard FG and drove for a TD to open the 3Q and only trailed 35-27 with 6:55 left. After AP got a 65 yd FR TD for a TD with 2:51 left in the 3Q, they only trailed 42-33. MT got some breathing room with a 33/2pl drive for a TD with 12:08 left and then took over with 9:23 left and drove 96/11pl getting a TD with 5:52 left to close the scoring. MT did have 654 yards offense with 353 rushing and 301 passing while AP only had 348 total yards.

While Stanford did indeed roll UCLA 35-0 it was a little bit closer than the final would indicate. SU scored a TD and a FG on 2 of their first 3 poss to lead 10-0. UCLA fumbled which set up a SU FG, 13-0. UCLA was driving but was int at the SU2 with 6:49 left at the half and it was 13-0. UCLA opened the 3Q with a 57/13pl drive but missed a 49 yd FG. SU went 68/18pl and got a 4th & gl TD run then on the next play got a 21 yd FR TD to extend it to 28-0. UCLA went for it on 4th & 2 at midfield and were SOD and SU tacked on a TD with 8:48 left. UCLA got to the SU27 with 5:05 left but was int’d. Stanford won in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1996.

Northern Illinois did have a 23-14 FD edge and 511-338 yd edge vs North Dakota. They fumbled into the EZ for a TB with 8:30 left in the 2Q. Leading 16-3 they missed a 41 yard FG then on their next drive, had a 1st & gl at the 2 but fumbled. North Dakota went 72/12pl for a TD with 3:31 left to pull within 6 and got the ball back with 1:33 left. They got 3 FD’s but the final 2pl ended in 15 and 8 yd sks and NI held on.

Southern Miss was more impressive than the final score vs Prairie View A&M. They blocked a punt to start but settled for a FG. SM then went 70/6p, 54/5p, 47/7pl for TD’s on the next 3 poss. After their first punt, they were int’d at the PV11 then drove 53/7pl for a TD. SM led 31-0 at the half and had a 299-49 yd edge and brought in backup QB Young on the 2nd series of the 3Q. In the 2H SM also fumbled at the PV21 and went on a 14 play drive but settled for a 25 yd FG.

I go through the play by play of every college game each Sunday and Monday and put the interesting notes here in News and Notes. One players performance stood out to me and it was Joe Lefeged of Rutgers. FIU had a 15-8 FD edge and 371-172 yard edge but somehow lost 19-14 at home. The reason was Lefeged. In the 1Q with 6:14 left he forced a fumble at the RU39. Two poss later he forced a fumble at the RU40. RU at this point had not even had a FD for the game. On the next poss, Lefeged got an int at the RU39 and returned it 29 yards to the 32 setting up a TD. On the next poss Lefeged blocked a punt which set up a 42 yard FG, 13-7. RU fumbled on their first 2 poss of the 3Q. FIU went 27/3pl for a TD and led 14-13. FIU had a FD at the RU28 but 4 penalties forced a 4th & 46 and they punted. Lefeged blocked another punt with 13:18 left which set up a 24/1pl TD run by Sanu. Rutgers longest scoring drive of the game was 32 yards but thanks to Joe Lefeged they got the win.

A look at a boxscore shows that New Mexico was very competitive vs Texas Tech as TT only had a 24-23 FD edge and 462-433 yd edge. The game was not that competitive. Thanks to a pair of blocked punts, TT got a 55 yard TD pass then blocked a punt and drove 3 yards for a TD, 14-0. NM did got on an 8pl drive for a 28 yd FG but TT got a 93 yard KR setting up a 7 yd TD drive, 21-3. TT blew 2 long scoring drives. They went 64/13pl and had a 1st & gl at the 1 but fmbl’d. They then went 68/11pl and settled for a 22 yd FG, 24-3. They led 31-10 when NM fmbl’d the ball near midfield but NM’s Hernandez picked it up and raced 45 yds for an offensive TD, 31-17 at the half. TT blocked a punt and drove 1 yard for a TD to open the 3Q. NM got to the TT 12 but was int at the 3 and TT went 62/9pl for a TD then after an int, 13 yards for a TD, 52-17. TT ended the game at the NM17 yard line.

Two big plays had Nicholls St tied at 14 with W Michigan with 4:42 left in the half. The first came when they went for it on 4th & 1 on their own 48 and Turner broke through the line and raced 52 yard for a TD. WM was int’d and ret’d 16 yards to their 4 which was the 2nd big play and that set up an NSt TD. It was 14-14. WM scored TD’s on their last drive of the 1H and their first 4 drives of the 2H to go through an explosive 49-14 lead with 8:56 left.

Turnovers were the key in the NC State game vs UCF. UCF had 5 TO’s and NCSt 0. That was part of the reason UCF had a 308-239 yd edge but lost. There also may be a changing of the QB’s at UCF. In the 1H Rob Calabrese fired an int and NCSt went 42/8pl for a TD. After a muffed punt, NCSt drove 20/3pl for a TD to lead 21-0 with 3:26 left in the half. UCF did get a 93 yd KR TD and missed a 46 yard FG, 21-7. In the 2H Calabrese was int’d with 7:29 left 3Q and then int and ret’d 43 yard for a TD and NCSt led 28-7 with 5:22 left in the 3Q. Backup QB Jeff Godfrey hit 7-10-107 yards and rushed for 53. He guided a 55/12pl drive for a TD with 14:19 left and after a punt they drove 75/8pl for a TD with 4:29 left. NCSt punted 14 yards with 2:47 left to its own 49. UCF converted on 4th & 1 for a FD to the 38 but on 2nd & 3 from the 31 got a 20 yd pass to McDuffie but he fumbled at the end at the NCSt 11 and they escaped by taking a knee.

Utah St did lead Idaho St 38-3 in the 4Q. ISU went 66/12pl but was int’d in the EZ for a TB but USU was int’d with 5:41 left and ISU went 28/7pl with a 4&gl, 5 yd TD pass. USU fumbled with 1:50 left and ISU added another TD with 1:30 left on the 33-yard drive. USU finished with a 27-14 FD edge and 538-285 yd edge.

WKU got a 73/7pl drive and took a 7-0 lead vs Kentucky but the Wildcats scored 5 TD’s to lead 35-7 and WKU had just 7 remaining yards the entire 1H. After WKU got a 95 yard KR TD with 1:15 left, UK drove 58/6pl getting a 4 yd TD pass to lead 42-14 at the half with a 267-80 yd edge. It was 49-28 when UK went 53/4pl for a TD with 6:26 left then after rec a fumble went 18/4pl for another TD with 4:44 left.

POINTS LEFT OFF THE BOARD:

UAB could have led early in the 3Q but blew 2 opportunities at the 1 yd line. Trailing 14-7 they had a 1st & gl at the 1 with :41 left 1H. On 2nd & gl at the 1 they ran the ball with no time-outs then hurried the FG unit on and the snap went through the holder’s hands and they did not score. UAB opened the 3Q with a 74/5pl drive and got basically a 50 yd TD pass from Isabelle to Forrest who fmbl’d the ball before he crossed the goal line for a touchback. UAB was int at the SMU28 with 12:52 left and then down 2 scores, opted to go for it on 4th & 4 at their own 38 and was SOD less than a yd short setting up a short SMU TD. UAB was also SOD at the 5 yd line on 4th & 2.

MORE FCS UPSETS:

Opening week saw a couple of upsets by the FCS and last week saw even more as you would expect with a large amount of games vs IAA foes. Akron only led 21-17 at the half and Gardner-Webb had a 187-179 yd edge but the Zips did lead 31-17 late in the 3Q. GW tied it with 5:05 left and the kicking game cost the Zips. They missed a game winning 34 yd FG on the final play of regulation then while each team scored a TD in OT, UA missed the xp and was upset by 1. GW finished with 24-22 FD and 391-389 yd edges.

INJURIES OF NOTE:

Wisconsin WR/RM David Gilreath was taken off the field on a stretcher after a suffering a concussion vs SJSt and his status for next week will be questionable. Also, San Jose St starting C Robbie Reed hurt his right leg and was on crutches with an immobilizing knee brace in the 2H.

Purdue WR Keith Smith (knee) was on crutches at the end of LW's game.

Georgia was not only without star WR AJ Green (susp) but also their top RB Caleb King missed the game with an injured ankle. UGA still had a chance vs SC despite being outFD’d 23-11. In the 3Q they rec a fmbl and got a 55 yd pass and had a 2nd & gl at the 8. Only down by 8 pts, RB Ealey fmbl’d which SC rec'd at the 1 and ret’d it 13 yds. UGA did not threaten after that and SC got a 24 yd FG with 1:12 left which iced it. Probably the key component of the game was SC true frosh Marcus Lattimore (PS#1) who was dominant from start to finish and finished with 182 yds rushing with his 3rd and 4th TD’s of the season.

Texas at Texas Tech: What Bettors Need to Know
By Marc Lawrence

A Big 12 South Division battle kicks off in Lubbock where Texas Tech hosts Texas at Jones AT&T Stadium. Let’s take a look at how these two teams match up.

Bevo beat

When Garrett Gilbert was named the starting quarterback as the successor to Colt McCoy for the Longhorns, coach Mack Brown immediately decided to add new running schemes to the offense.

According to Brown, the move was primarily made to help balance the offense. It was also done in an effort to take the pressure off Gilbert, who was thrown into battle as a true freshman in the BCS Championship game when McCoy went down with an injury in the first quarter last year.

The offense has been slow to start the 2010 campaign, failing to gain 400 yards in either of their first two contests against Rice and Wyoming.

To make matters worse, Longhorns running back Vondrell McGee's appeal to the NCAA over his unspecified "unresolved academic eligibility issues" has been denied, ending his college football career.

McGee played in 35 career games at Texas, starting seven. He rushed for 973 total yards on 219 carries, including 14 touchdowns.

"He's disappointed that he's not getting to play, (but) he'll make it work for him," Brown said. "Vondrell's a tough young man. He was embarrassed by his slip-up in the spring. He's been a great young man for us.”

With McGee gone, Texas' three primary tailbacks remain Fozzy Whittaker, Cody Johnson and Tré Newton.

New look Raiders

When Tommy Tuberville took over for pass-happy predecessor Mike Leach he brought a new playbook with pronounced changes from the old one.

Like Brown and the Longhorns, he too is attempting to balance the offense.

Defensively he noticed a unit that "didn't have a lot of confidence" and immediately took steps to remedy the situation.

Two games into the season, the Red Raiders are thriving in their new, 3-4 scheme under the direction of new defensive coordinator James Willis, who spent last season as the linebackers coach at Alabama.

Texas coach Brown said videotape reviews of the 2010 Tech defense show a pressure-based unit that "mirrors a lot of the things that they're doing at Alabama."

Considering that the top-ranked Crimson Tide defeated Texas 37-21 in last year's BCS National Championship Game, that's a good group to imitate.

Brown also noted a strong similarity between the Texas Tech defense and the Longhorns’ unit directed by Will Muschamp, a former assistant with Willis on Tuberville's staff at Auburn (2006-07).

The Red Raiders have forced seven turnovers in two games, tied for seventh nationally in turnovers gained. Texas is tied for 85th, with two turnovers - none in last week's 34-7 victory over Wyoming. Texas Tech ranks fourth nationally in interceptions (five). Texas is tied for 64th with one.

Granted, the Longhorns are allowing fewer yards and fewer points. But TTU is making more big plays, which usually decides head-to-head matchups. Although the Longhorns have six sacks, a solid number through two games, Texas Tech has nine.

Red Raiders cornerback Will Ford said the Raiders' game plan against Texas is simple.

"Try to bring pressure on the quarterback," Ford told reporters. "Get the defense off the field and our offense on the field to score points."

Defensive tackle Colby Whitlock said players have fully embraced Willis' pressure-based scheme after taking on more of a bend-but-don't-break approach under Leach.

"I've liked everything he's brought to the table so far," Whitlock said of Willis' defensive tweaks. "I think this scheme is going to be more effective than the defense we had last year, and I think it's a great scheme to run."

Don’t be surprised if Saturday night’s battle comes down to turnover margin. If Texas Tech continues to shine in that area, another upset is possible in Lubbock.

Commonalities

Like last season, the two schools open Big 12 Conference play against each other and a single loss could potentially cost either team a shot at the Big 12 South Division title and perhaps, the Big 12 Championship.

The Longhorns avenged a costly loss on this field in 2008 with a 34-24 win in Austin last season.

“I am excited about it,” Tuberville said during the media conference. “Fortunately for us, we get to play it at home. I had the chance to watch this game a couple of years ago, on TV, when Tech won this game. It was probably the game of the decade, to me, in college football. It was an outstanding game played on both sides. It was very thrilling, a lot of excitement; hopefully we will have a lot of the same things in this game coming up.”

The Horns are 44-15 all-time against TTU. Mack Brown is 9-3 against Texas Tech, with all three losses in Lubbock ('98, '02 and the classic showdown featuring the Michael Crabtree game-winning catch in ‘08).

Coaches stats to ponder

• Texas coach Brown is 8-6 SU and 3-10-1 ATS as a conference road favorite of six or less points, including 1-6-1 ATS with the Longhorns.

• Brown is 13-8 SU and 4-17 ATS as a favorite versus undefeated opponents.

• Texas Tech coach Tuberville is 14-9 SU and 16-7 ATS in games against undefeated conference opposition.

• Tuberville is 18-36 ATS versus an opponent off an ATS loss, including 8-25 ATS at home.

NCAAF Week 3 Line Moves

Sportsbooks have been busy since posting the Week 3 college football lines. Plenty of odds are on the move heading into a busy Saturday schedule. Chuck Esposito, casino operations manager at the Las Vegas Tropicana, gives his insight into some of the biggest line moves on the board.

Ohio Bobcats at Ohio State Buckeyes – Open: -31.5 Move: -29.5

The Buckeyes have dropped to 29.5-point favorites for this in-state battle. Ohio State has been big chalk against Ohio before, failing to cover in their past two meetings as a 33.5 and a 43-point favorite.

“This is just a big number for Ohio State, especially off last week’s game with Miami,” says Esposito. “It’s a sandwich game between that matchup and the beginning of Big Ten play in a few weeks. People see value in Ohio and are betting this one fast.”

Maryland Terrapins at West Virginia Mountaineers – Open: -13.5 Move: -10

The Mountaineers are without starting cornerback Brandon Hogan, who was suspended from the team for a DUI arrest. That forced WVU down to a 10-point home favorite, however, Esposito expects this number to come up before kickoff.

“This number has bounced around a lot, moving on some key numbers,” says Esposito. “There is a great chance to middle if you caught WVU around -14.”

East Carolina Pirates at Virginia Tech Hokies – Open: -17.5 Move: -20

The Hokies are coming off a stunning upset loss to James Madison last week and are back home hungry for their first win of the season. Despite the move to -20, Covers.com is reporting 70 percent of action on the Pirates, meaning sharps like VT to pull their heads out of the sand this weekend.

“Nobody thought Tech would be looking for its first win in Week 3,” says Esposito. “With this game in Blacksburg, look for the Hokies to get out their frustrations on a weaker opponent and run up the score if possible.”

USC Trojans at Minnesota Golden Gophers – Open +13.5 Move: +11.5

The Golden Gophers are also coming off an embarrassing loss, falling to South Dakota in Week 2. However, it seems bettors are more disappointed with Southern Cal and its 0-2 ATS record. The money is moving Minnesota to a 11.5-point home pup as of Friday afternoon.

“Southern Cal didn’t look good last week and gave up late scores to Hawaii in the opener,” says Esposito. “They’re out of sync offensively and, for many bettors, the jury is still out on USC.”

Arizona State Sun Devils at Wisconsin Badgers – Open: -15.5 Move: -12.5

The Badgers haven’t impressed enough to garner the respect of the betting public – even at home. Wisconsin is 2-0 to start the schedule but failed to cover in both games. Esposito is shocked that the money is coming in on ASU and expects this line to go back up closer to kickoff.

“Wisconsin is just bigger than Arizona State,” he says. “The offensive line is bigger and strong and will eventually wear the Sun Devils down.”

Louisville Cardinals at Oregon State Beavers – Open: -16 Move: -19.5

It seems the betting public has Beaver Fever heading into this Big East-vs.-Pac-10 battle. Oregon State’s odds are climbing as the Cardinals must travel to the West Coast for a late game in Corvallis.

“With all the fire power Oregon State has, it’s no surprise this line has moved,” says Esposito. “It’s a definite mismatch with a weaker Louisville team. We moved very quickly on this one.”

Fresno State Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies – Open: +6 Move: +3.5

Bulldogs running back Robbie Rouse is out of action with ankle and shoulder injuries, forcing bettors to take the Aggies in this WAC showdown.

“Despite the running back being out, I think we overestimated Fresno State a bit,” says Esposito. “People are taking advantage of that by going with the other side.”

Iowa Hawkeyes at Arizona Wildcats – Open: +1 Move: -1

The Hawkeyes are coming to the desert as slight underdogs after opening at -1 earlier this week. Esposito expects money to come in on Iowa but understands why bettors would be siding with the home side.

“Iowa is supposed to be among the top teams when it comes down to it,” he says. “But this program is known for hitting a road block and this seems like a perfect place for that. I do, however, expect them to close as slight favorites Saturday night.”

Late-Night Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

Gamblers have a slew of late-night opportunities to produce winners. For instance, Iowa and Arizona will collide in Tuscon at 10:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. Also, ESPN2 will have the telecast of Wake Forest at Stanford at 11:15 p.m. Eastern. Let’s take a closer at look at these games a few other late-night tilts.

**Iowa at Arizona**

As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Arizona (2-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) listed as a one-point favorite with the total in the 45-46 range.

Iowa (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) beat Eastern Illinois 37-7 in its opener and then took out Iowa St. 35-7 last week. The Hawkeyes easily took the money as 12-point home favorites against the Cylcones. Ricky Stanzi threw for 204 yards and two touchdowns without being intercepted. Also, sophomore RB Adam Robinson ran for 156 yards and one TD on just 14 carries, while Jewel Hampton netted 84 rushing yards and one TD on 20 totes.

Arizona opened the season on the road with a dominant 41-2 win at Toledo as a 14 ½-point favorite. Next, the Wildcats mashed The Citadel 52-6 in a non-lined affair. Nic Grigsby ran for 107 yards and three TDs on just 11 carries versus the Bulldogs. In the first two games, Grigsby has five rushing touchdowns and is averaging an eye-opening 8.4 yards per carry.

Arizona junior QB Nick Foles has completed 49-of-59 passes (83.1%!) for 574 yards and three touchdowns. However, Foles has been intercepted twice in as many games. His favorite target has been Juron Criner, the junior WR who has 13 catches for 247 yards and one TD.

Robinson has been the catalyst for the Hawkeyes to date. He has rushed for 265 yards and four TDs, averaging 7.0 YPC. Stanzi has connected on 70.7 percent of his passes for 433 yards and three TDs without being picked off.

Mike Stoops’ team has cashed tickets at a 7-2 ATS clip in its last nine games as a home favorite. Meanwhile, Iowa has covered the number in four straight games as a road underdog.

When these schools met in Iowa City last season, the Hawkeyes won by a 27-17 count as 3 ½-point home favorites. The Hawks limited ‘Zona to just 190 net yards.

Arizona starting sophomore safety Adam Hall has been upgraded to ‘probable’ despite a shoulder injury.

Dating back to last season, the ‘under’ has cashed in four consecutive games for Arizona.

**Wake Forest at Stanford**

As of late Friday afternoon, most books were listing Stanford (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) as a 17 ½-point ‘chalk’ with the total in the 59-60 range. Bettors can take the Demon Deacons on the money line for a plus-750 return at the Las Vegas Hilton (risk $100 to win $750).

Jim Harbaugh’s team went on the road in Pac-10 play last week and dealt out woodshed treatment. In fact, Stanford gave UCLA a cream-cheese bagel in a 35-0 win as a 5 ½-point favorite. Andrew Luck threw a pair of TD passes and also ran for 63 yards.

Wake Forest (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) dropped Presbyterian 53-13 before beating Duke 54-48 in its ACC opener. The Deacs covered the spread as 5 ½-point home favorites against the Blue Devils. When QB Ted Stachitas left the Duke game with a hand injury, true freshman Tanner Price replaced him and threw for 190 yards and three touchdowns. Price, who will get his first career start Saturday, also rushed for 56 yards and one TD.

Jim Grobe’s program has thrived as an underdog during his 10-year tenure. In fact, the Deacs own a 19-12-1 spread record in 32 games as road underdogs on Grobe’s watch. As a double-digit ‘dog since 2004, Wake is 7-2 ATS.

Stanford has posted a 7-3 spread record in 10 games as a home favorite during Harbaugh’s four-year tenure. The Cardinal is 3-1 ATS in four games as a double-digit ‘chalk’ since 2007.

Stanford went into intermission with a 17-3 lead last year at Wake Forest, but the Deacs scored 21 unanswered points to capture a 24-17 victory as three-point home favorites.

Before the ‘under’ cashed in Stanford’s win at UCLA last week, the Cardinal had seen the ‘under’ prevail in seven of its eight previous outings.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

For most of the week, most spots had Houston as a three-point road favorite at UCLA. But when Cougars’ QB Case Keenum (concussion) was upgraded to ‘probable’ Friday afternoon, most books moved the Cougars to four. FSN will have television coverage of this 10:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff. The total is 64, while the Bruins are plus-160 to win outright (risk $100 to win $160).

If the Bruins can’t beat Houston on Saturday night, they are likely staring at a 0-4 start with a trip to Austin to face Texas on deck. Looking at the entire slate, a 2-10 campaign certainly isn’t out of the question. Can you say hot seat, Rick Neuheisel?

Most books are listing Idaho as a seven-point home favorite against UNLV. The total is 57 ½, while the Rebels are plus-220 on the money line. ESPNU will provide television coverage of this matchup at 10:30 p.m. Eastern. The Vandals have failed to cover the spread in four of five games as home favorites during Robb Akey’s four-year tenure.

The NCAA denied Georgia’s appeal of WR A.J. Green’s four-game suspension on Friday. Green will make his season debut Oct. 2 at Colorado.

Looking ahead to Week 4 – the best games look like this:

1-Alabama at Arkansas
2-South Carolina at Auburn
3-West Virginia at LSU
4-Oregon State at Boise State
5-Miami at Pittsburgh (Thursday)

vegasinsider.com

Saturday's Games

Highlighted Games

LY, Georgia (+2) won 52-41 at Arkansas, as suspect QB Cox averaged over 20 yards a completion; Murray is upgrade at QB for Dawgs in '10, but star WR Green is still suspended. Georgia is 12-20-1 as home fave since '04; they were outgained by 101 yards last week in Columbia, with Dawgs getting outrushed 189-61. Arkansas has Alabama coming to town next week; they're 4-4 as road dog under Petrino, 1-8 SU on foreign soil.

Temple was booted out of Big East to make room for UConn; Owls lost in OT in last series meeting (12-9, +6 in '08). UConn is 9-3 as road fave since '02, 17-10 vs spread in non-league games. Temple is 7-2-1 as home dog under Golden; they won first two games in dramatic fashion, and do not think they'll look past team that pushed them out of a BCS league. Big East teams are now 1-8-1 vs spread in non-conference games.

San Diego State is 2-0 for first time since '94; they're 9-13-1 as road dog since '06, 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 non-league games. Mountain West underdogs are 1-4 vs spread in non-league games; Big 12 home favorites are 7-5. Missouri is just 2-6 vs spread as home favorite since '08, but is 14-7 vs spread in last 21 non-league games. Aztecs ran for 244 yards in 41-21 win last week, passed for 319 more, offsetting 106 penalty yards.

Florida State (+8) crushed BYU 54-28 LY, running ball for 313 yards in game where FSU was +5 in turnovers; Seminoles are just 7-18 as home favorite since '05, but are 12-8 vs spread in game following last 20 losses. BYU is 0-3 as road dog since '07, losing by 10-25-24 points; they lost at Air Force last week, giving up 409 rushing yards- this is third tough foe in row for Cougar squad that can't decide which quarterback to play.

Washington is 4-1 as home underdog under Sarkisian; Huskies were up only 13-10 at half vs Syracuse last week before pulling away late- they have big edge in experience at QB, as this is first road start for Martinez, a very mobile QB. Cornhuskers are 4-2 in last six games as road favorite, are 8-2 in non-league games under Pelini. Favorites are 8-3 vs spread in Pac-10's non-league games so far (Pac-10 clubs 1-3 as the dog).

Clemson coach Swinney went to Alabama, so ending Clemson's 13-game skid vs Auburn would be doubly sweet; Clemson is 7-2 as road underdog since '05, but just 4-8 vs spread in last 12 non-league games. Auburn is in SEC sandwich (South Carolina next week); they start four OL seniors, are 8-15 as home favorite since '06. Teams last met in '07, when Auburn (+2) beat Clemson 23-20 in OT in Chick-fil-A Bowl.

Average total in last five Texas-Texas Tech games is 73.4, but with both sides leaning more to run, score will be lower here, on 56th birthday for new Tech coach Tuberville. Senior QB for Tech, while soph Gilbert is making first start in hostile territory. Longhorns are 6-4 in last 10 games as road favorite, Tech is 5-1 as recent home dog. Texas starts 4 seniors on offensive line, Red Raiders start three sophomores.

LSU is 17-1 last 18 games vs Mississippi State, winning last 10 games, but Bulldogs were stopped on 1-yard line with 1:08 left in LY's 30-26 home loss to Tigers, as Mullen has MSU on right track. Bulldogs are 2-2 as road dog under Mullen (12-19-1 in last 32 games before him). LSU is 11-19-1 as home favorite under Miles; they outgained Vandy 392-135 in methodical 27-10 road win in conference opener last week.

Home side won seven of last eight Fresno-Utah State games; Bulldogs won last visit here 30-28 (-15.5- long FG on last play), won last three series games by 11-2-4 points (underdog covered last five series games). Utah State went to Norman, outgained Sooners 442-441, so they've got talent, and QB with 23 career starts. Aggies are 15-5 vs spread in last 20 games as a dog. Could Fresno be looking ahead to Ole Miss next week?

Visitor is 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine Notre Dame-Michigan State games; with average total in last five, 60.0. Three of last five series games were decided by exactly 3 points. Spartans are just 16-27-1 as home favorite since '01; they've run ball for 297-225 yards in winning first two games this year. Irish were 9-6 as road dog under Weis; Kelly's Cincinnati and Central Michigan clubs were 10-5-1 as a road underdog.

Iowa (-3) held Arizona to 8 first downs in 27-17 home win LY, but that was just before Foles became Wildcats' starting QB; Arizona is 9-1-1 as home underdog since '05, 20-10-1 vs spread in last 31 games as the dog. Iowa is 8-1 vs spread last nine road games, but hasn't won game west of Rockies since '87 (first trip west in six years). 12,000 Iowa fans going to this game. Big 11 teams are 5-3-1 as non-conference fave, 0-1-1 on road.

UCLA gave up 66 points in losing its first two games and was booed at home in last game (35-0 loss to Stanford); now Bruins are home dog to a team from Conference USA. Bruins were 0-3 as home dog LY, after 11-2 run as home dog from '02-'08. UCLA is 14-6 vs spread in last 20 games out of Pac-10. Houston is 1-8 as road favorite under Sumlin (home team is 16-2 vs spread in Cougar games since he became Houston's coach).

Stanford plays Notre Dame next week, better not look past Wake Forest squad that was down 17-3 at half LY, rallied to beat Cardinal 24-17 in game where Wake outrushed Stanford 251-115. Deacons are 2-5 as road underdog since '07, after being 17-7 in previous 24 tries. Stanford is 13-5 as home favorite since '02, 7-3 under Harbaugh- they crushed UCLA in Rose Bowl last week 35-0. If not for revenge, this would be trap game.

Rest of the Card

-- West Virginia is 6-13 vs spread in last 19 games as favorite, 3-8 as HF under Stewart; they won last three games vs Maryland by average score of 36-19. Maryland is 11-21 vs spread in game after its last 32 wins.
-- Underdog covered last three Iowa St-Kansas St games; Snyder is 32-18 vs spread in his last 50 Big 12 games. Cyclones are 6-1 vs spread in last seven games as a road dog. KState blocked PAT to win 24-23 LY.
-- Purdue is 7-13 as home favorite since '05; they won last seven games vs Ball State by average score of 38-15. Cardinals are 13-3 as a road dog the last four years, 6-0 the last two seasons.
-- Illinois is 4-9 as home favorite since '06, 3-11 in non-league contests. Northern Illinois coach Kill has been in hospital; the coordinators have been running practice this week. NIU is 5-2 as road dog under Kill.
-- Ohio U (+33) led 14-12 after three quarters in Columbus two years ago, lost 26-14. Bobcats are 10-5-1 as road dog since '06. Buckeyes are 7-2 vs spread in last nine games as a home favorite.

-- Penn State was 1-6 as home favorite LY, after being 14-7 from '05-'08; they're 3-4 vs spread in game after last seven losses. Kent State is 11-8 as road underdog since '06- they were down 6-3 at half at BC last week.
-- Georgia Tech is 10-2 in last 12 games vs North Carolina; home side is 4-1 in last five series games. UNC is 10-19 as home favorite since '06-- not sure what players are suspended. Tech is 9-3 vs spread on road.
-- Vanderbilt is 20-5-1 vs spread as road dog since '04; they won 23-17 in last visit to Oxford (+7). Ole Miss is 7-3 as home favorite with Nutt as coach. Vandy was 10-27/69 passing in LY's 23-7 loss to Rebels.
-- Virginia Tech is smarting after loss to I-AA JMU; they're 5-11-2 in its non-ACC games, 9-12-1 as home favorite since '06. Last three games vs East Carolina had average total-- 31.3. ECU is 14-5 as road dog since '05.
-- Oklahoma State is 12-6 as home favorite since '06; they struggled with Troy last week, winning 41-38 (-13) despite five turnovers, 139 penalty yards. Tulsa is 6-13-1 vs spread in last 20 road games.

-- Alabama is 6-1 as road favorite since '06; they're at Arkansas, very big SEC game. Duke is 5-17 as home dog since '05; coach Cutcliffe is Bama grad. Duke (+5) scored 48 points last week and still didn't cover.
-- Hawai'i has been on mainland all week after winning at Army; they are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 games as road dog. Underdog is 8-3 vs spread in Colorado's last 11 home games. Big 12 home favorites are 7-5.
-- Colorado State is 1-7 as road dog under Fairchild, losing 51-6 last week in Reno. Miami OH is 1-7-1 as home favorite since '06, but they hung in at Florida in opener. MWC underdogs are 1-4 in non-league games.
-- Florida is 8-3 as road favorite since '07 (16-10 overall in SEC); they've won last five games vs Tennessee, winning 21-20/30-6 in last two visits here. Vols gave up 45 consecutive points in loss to Oregon last week.
-- Washington State beat SMU in OT LY after being down 24-7, running two INTs back for TDs. Coogs are 10-18 vs spread after win since '03. Mustangs outgained Wazzu 504-276; they're 1-7 as home fave since '07.

-- Arizona State is 8-21-1 vs spread in last 30 games as road dog, 2-6-1 in Erickson era. Wisconsin is 15-8 in non-league games since '05, 4-6 last 10 games as home favorite. Big 11 home favorites are 5-2 vs spread.
-- Oregon State is 10-6 as home favorite since '06; they lost 63-27 in last game vs Louisville (+13, '05). Cardinals are 2-5-1 as road dog since '08. Big East teams are 1-8-1 vs spread in non-conference games.
-- Oklahoma is 17-7-1 as home favorite since '06; tough to prepare for Air Force's option attack in one week. Falcons ran ball for 409 yards in MWC win over BYU last week; they're 11-9-1 as road dog since '04.
-- Central Michigan is 11-8-1 as road favorite since '01; they won 56-8 in this game LY, after dog covered three of previous four in series. Average total in last three series games is 88.3. EMU is 5-9 as a home underdog.
-- Baylor is 7-3 as road dog under Briles; they lost 17-7/27-0 in last two games vs TCU, a former SWC rival. Frogs are 18-6 as home faves since '05- they have TV game vs local rival on deck next Friday.

-- Underdogs are 8-3 vs spread in C-USA games, with C-USA clubs 0-3 as non-league favorite. Marshall (+3) outrushed Bowling Green 246-10 in LY's 17-10 win. Falcons allowed 416 rush yards in losing first couple games, but they did cover both.
-- Navy is 1-5 as road favorite since '07; they ran ball for 290 yards LY in 32-14 win (-7.5) over Louisiana Tech, which is 6-0 as home underdog since '07. WAC teams are 8-3 vs spread, 5-3 as an underdog.
-- Central Florida was energized last week by freshman QB Godfrey, an electric runner; Knights were 2-0 as road fave LY, after being 1-9 from '03-'08. Buffalo is 10-8 as a home underdog since 2004.
-- Kentucky is 5-7 as home favorite since '07; they have SEC opener at Florida next week, figure to hold back some vs Akron club that lost 29-3 at home to Syracuse, and is 6-9-1 as road underdog since 2007.
-- Western Michigan won last four games vs Toledo, with road team 3-0 vs spread in last three; Broncos are 7-10 as home fave since '05. Toledo is 6-14 in last 20 games as road dog, even after last week's win at Ohio.

-- Rice pulled out wild 32-31 win at North Texas last week; they're 1-4-1 in last six games as road dog, after being 16-5 from '00-'08. Northwestern is 6-13 in last 19 non-league tilts; they're 0-4 as road fave since '07.
-- Utah's last two visits to New Mexico were both decided by 3 points, but '10 Lobos are awful, giving up 124 points in first two games, losing 72-0/52-17. New Mexico had 16 penalties/145 yards last week.
-- Boise State won 17-10/24-14 in last two games vs Wyoming club that figures to be emotional in first home game after death of teammate in car crash. Cowboys are 3-6 as a home underdog since 2007.
-- Road team covered last five New Mexico State-UTEP games. Miners are just 5-12 in last 17 games as home favorite- they gave up 656 yards last week, 300+ both running/passing. Aggies are 7-4-1 as a road dog.
-- UNLV is 8-20-1 as road dog since '04. Idaho is 2-7 as home favorite since '01; they threw five INTs, gave up 360 rushing yards in last week's loss at Nebraska. MWC underdogs are 1-4 vs spread this year.

-- Indiana is 1-9 SU on road last two years; they're 0-3-1 as a road fave since '00- they beat Western Kentucky 31-13 in '08, gaining 450 yards. WKU was down 42-14 at half of 63-28 loss at Kentucky last week.
-- North Texas is 2-6 as home dog since '08; they lost 32-31 to Rice here last week. Army is 0-4 as road favorite since '00; they lost to Hawai'i at home last week- they won here 17-13 (+2) late last season.
-- Home team won last five ULMonroe-Arkansas State games, as ULM lost last two visits here, 10-6/37-29. Monroe is 19-11 vs spread in last 20 games as road dog. ASU is 8-11 as home favorite since '05.
-- Florida Int'l is 7-11 vs spread as road dog under Cristobal; they lost a tough 19-14 game to Rutgers last week, but outgained Knights 371-172. Texas A&M covered six of last seven tries as a home favorite.
-- Memphis allowed 49 points in losing each of its first two games, but they're playing wrong QB; this is big game for them, with MTSU QB Dasher out for this game again (suspended). Tigers are 6-8 as home dog.
-- Troy lost 41-38 at Oklahoma State last week; they outgained UAB by 266 yards in LY's 31-14 win. Trojans are 8-5 in last 13 games as fave on road. Blazers are 11-5-2 vs spread as home underdog since '00.