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NCAAF News and Notes Saturday 9/19

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Games to Watch - Week 3
By Chris David

Even though there are only two games that feature ranked teams going head-to-head, the entire slate has some intriguing matchups that could be telling toward the entire year for some teams.

Let's take a quick look at 11 contests for this weekend that are worth watching.

Week 3

California at Minnesota (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

Is California (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) a title contender? Better yet, would you consider the Pac 10 soft if you took out USC? No, yes. Those are my answers and until somebody proves me wrong, I'm not sold on anybody in the conference until they take the crown from Pete Carroll and Troy. The Golden Bears do have some talent, especially RB Jahvid Best. However, we'll find out how good he is real soon considering the schedule Cal faces. After this game, the Golden Bears square off against Oregon, USC and UCLA. Head coach Jeff Tedford has had success in his tenure against the Big 10, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, which includes a 42-17 win over Minnesota in 2006. The Big 10 had two chances last week to gain some respect against the Pac 10 but both Purdue and Ohio State came up short. Can Minnesota (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) step up this weekend? They'll need to pick up the rush defense, which gave up 261 yards in last week's 20-13 victory against Air Force. The new stadium was rocking for the Gophers last week and could help in this spot, especially as a live 'dog. Who will be Golden this week, the Bears or Gophers?

Michigan State at Notre Dame (NBC, 3:30 p.m.)

Two schools that are probably still kicking themselves after last week's outcomes are definitely Michigan State (1-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) and Notre Dame (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS). The Spartans fell to Central Michigan 29-27 at home as 14 ½-point favorites, while the Irish couldn't hold on to a late lead in their 38-34 setback to Michigan. After watching Michigan State play, it's fair to say that the better team won last Saturday in CMU. However, Notre Dame moved the ball up and down on Michigan for 490 yards and cost itself throughout the contest. The Spartans used two quarterbacks last week and it definitely messed up the team chemistry. The only thing that disturbed me about ND is that they should pound RB Armando Allen (139 yards) more. Revenge is definitely on the mind of Charlie Weis and the Irish, since Michigan State has won and covered the last two meetings by double digits. The 'over' has gone 4-1 in the last five games.

Saturday - Utah at Oregon (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)

What happens when an unranked team is favored over a ranked team? If you've betting on college sports, then you should know the answer. Oregon (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) hasn't looked great by any means this year but is No. 18 Utah (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) the real deal? Last year's Sugar Bowl win over Alabama and the Utes' unbeaten 13-0 season has helped their reputation heading into 2009. Sloppy wins over Utah State (35-17) and San Jose State (24-14) to start the year have been unimpressive and could make the faithful in Salt Lake City worry. Back-to-back road trips are tough for any team and even though the Utes have fared well against the Pac 10 at home, they've been humbled in their last two road games against Pac 10 foes. This game is a possible look-ahead for Oregon, who has a conference home opener against California (see above) next Saturday. If Utah escapes Eugene with a win, the next six games appear to be very winnable with exception to a road battle against UNLV.

Nebraska at Virginia Tech (ABC-Regional, 3:30 p.m.)

After watching Oklahoma and Oklahoma State fall from the pedestal in consecutive weeks, Nebraska (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) has a chance to put the Big 12 back on the map with a non-conference victory at Virginia Tech (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) this Saturday. The Cornhuskers have looked solid against a pair of Sun Belt schools, outscoring them 87-12 in the first two weeks. The Hokies bounced back from their opening Week 1 loss to Alabama (34-24) with a 52-10 thrashing of Marshall last Saturday. Last year, QB Tyrod Taylor totaled 258 offensive yards as V-Tech earned a 35-30 win at Nebraska. Despite the loss, the Cornhuskers have gone 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in their last four games against the ACC. Frank Beamer's team has always been a tough out in Blacksburg, especially against non-conference foes (10-0 run). Even though this one of the two matchups between ranked schools this week, V-Tech could be looking ahead to an ACC showdown against Miami, Fl. next week.

Tulsa at Oklahoma (FSN, 3:30 p.m.)

Is Landry Jones the answer in Norman? The freshman quarterback tossed for 286 yards and three scores in Oklahoma's (2-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) 64-0 victory over Idaho State last Saturday. Still, most aren't forgetting the loss of QB Sam Bradford or the 14-13 upset to BYU but the win did give the team much needed confidence. The Sooners' defense only gave up 44 yards, which is what they could give up on one play this Saturday when Tulsa (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) comes to town. The Golden Hurricane offense has posted 44 and 37 in their first two games and both efforts were on the road too. Three straight road games are tough for any school, and that's what Tulsa faces this weekend. Oklahoma has won four straight (3-1 ATS) in this series but the point-spread (15.5) on this week's matchup is the lowest number in the last five. That certainly says something about Tulsa, or perhaps it tells us how the oddsmakers feel about Bob Stoops' banged-up crew.

Tennessee at Florida (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)

All the hoopla surrounding Tennessee (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) and its hiring of head coach Lane Kiffin will come to a head on Saturday when the team travels to Gainesville against No. 1 Florida (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS). If you take away the trash talking and bulletin board material, this game looks lopsided and the oddsmakers agree. The Volunteers came back to earth last Saturday as they lost to UCLA 19-15 at home, burning up the betting public's bankroll. While UT was falling, Florida was flying albeit against Troy (56-3). The Gators started slow but finished strong and totaled 663 yards on offense, plus the defense only gave up 139 yards. Urban Meyer hasn't lost to Tennessee since he joined Florida, going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. Two of the three have come by double digits, including a 59-20 win from Gainesville in 2007. Most are expecting the Gators to eclipse that number this Saturday.

Cincinnati at Oregon State (FSN, 6:45 p.m.)

Why is Cincinnati (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) only catching a point in Corvallis on Saturday? It tells me a lot because I would expect Oregon State (2-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) to be tabbed at least a three-point favorite at home. The books know something here and right now they believe the Bearcats and QB Tony Pike (77%, 591 yards, 6 TDs) are a team to be reckoned with even though they did beat up Rutgers and SE Missouri State. The Beavers haven't looked sharp early and were fortunate to beat UNLV (23-21) last Saturday but they did so without starting QB Lyle Moevao, who is 'questionable' again this week. Cross-country trips are tough on any school, but Brian Kelly's team has gone 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in previous encounters to the West Coast the past two years against San Diego State (52-23) and Hawaii (29-24). In 2007, Cincy pasted Oregon State 34-3 at home with the help of seven turnovers by the Beavers. Don't be surprised to see the 'Cats close as favorites here.

Florida State at Brigham Young (Versus, 7:00 p.m.)

The road to the BCS for Brigham Young (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) continues this weekend at home when Florida State (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) visits Provo. The Cougars will be playing their first game at home after defeating Oklahoma (14-13) in Dallas and Tulane (54-3) in the Big Easy. QB Max Hall (638 yards, 71.4%) is having a great year and the Cougars' scheme could have the overzealous FSU defense. The Seminoles only gave up nine points last week, but unfortunately the offense didn't show up in a 19-9 win over Jacksonville State. Bobby Bowden's team had a serious chance to lose this game and if the ball bounces the other way, the Seminoles could easily be 0-2. Gamblers should be aware that this will be FSU's third football game played in the last 12 days, which is tough to ask anybody to do. It seems like an impossible trip for the Seminoles on Saturday, especially when you factor in the travel, altitude and visiting crowd. Then you look at the opponent in BYU, who has gone 18-0 SU and 12-6 ATS in the last three years at home. The line opened at seven but I expect it to jump and jump high. The only thing that may irk some on this matchup is that DirecTV users won't be able to watch it since its being played on Versus, which could be a good thing for FSU backers.

Texas Tech at Texas (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)

I heard WR Michael Crabtree is coming back for this one…that's a joke folks, and so is he. The malcontent helped Texas Tech (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) edge Texas 39-33 last year in Lubbock by catching the game-winning TD with one tick left on the clock. The loss for the Longhorns eliminated their chances to win the Big 12 and possibly the national title too. To say that Texas (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) has had this game circled for a long time is an understatement and most would expect Mack Brown to have his squad focused. The Longhorns have outscored their first two opponents 100-30, while the Red Raiders have put up 93 and only allowed 23 points in their two wins. T-Tech QB Taylor Potts (861 yards, 9 TDs) seems to have a good grip on Mike Leach's offense in Lubbock but back-to-back road games against Texas this week and Houston the following weekend are tough tests. Six of the last seven in this series have gone 'over' the total.

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Posted : September 17, 2009 7:06 am
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NCAAF Week 3 Preview

Top games

Navy almost took Ohio State to OT, they're now 22-9 vs spread as dog on road since 2001; Middies crushed La Tech 32-14 last week after 14-0 early deficit, so they're pretty good. Pitt is 4-8 as home fave since 2006; they gave up 433 passing yards in 54-27 win at Buffalo last week- they ran ball for 209 yards and had four takeaways (+4).

Syracuse held Penn State to 79 rushing yards in 28-7 loss last week; this is their third straight Big 11 foe. Orange were outgained 484-225 in 30-10 loss at Northwestern LY (+11)- they're 3-8 last 11 games as a home dog. Wildcats are 7-4 as road favorite since '01- they barely hung on to 21-3 halftime lead last week, holding off Eastern Michigan 27-24.

Underdog won last four Boston College-Clemson games SU; Tigers ran ball 62 times for just 133 yards in last two meetings- they're 18-23-1 as home favorite this decade, 7-13 vs spread in game following a loss. BC has QB making first road start after they whacked two cupcakes to start season- they're 11-2 vs spread as a road underdog since 2002.

Vanderbilt, Mississippi State both lost SEC road games last week, which makes this game more important (loser falls to 0-2 in SEC); State is 4-1 in last five series games (favorites 4-1 vs spread)- teams split last couple games played here. Vandy is 5-12-1 as home favorite since '01, 22-16-1 vs spread in game after a loss. State is 12-20-1 as a road dog since 2002.

Oregon scored two defensive TDs last week, hung on to beat Purdue in 38-36 shootout; Boilers outgained Ducks 451-356, but Oregon did run ball for 193 yards. Utes have longest win streak in nation, but have new QB who played JC ball LY- they're 12-4 as road dog since 2001. Oregon is 15-7 as home favorite since '05. Utes had 251 rushing yards, 248 thru air in 24-14 win at San Jose State last week (-13).

Virginia Tech (+7) won 35-30 at Nebraska LY, running ball for 206 yards and averaging over 11 yards/pass attempt. Hokies are 7-10-1 as favorite at home after crushing Marshall last week. Huskers are 5-11 as road dog this decade; this is first road start for QB Lee, who is 47-66/589 passing against pair of Sun Belt teams. Huskers ran punt back for TD vs Tech inlast year's game. Hokies had kick return for TD in this year's opener.

Visitor won seven of last eight Michigan State-Notre Dame games; State won last six visits here- they lost 29-27 to Central Michigan last week in game they led 27-20 with 0:40 left. Irish are 11-18 as home fave since '03 but routed Nevada 35-0 in '09 opener. Spartans are 5-3 as road dog since '06; their QB is making first road start. Notre Dame had ball and lead in last 3:00 in Ann Arbor last week, but couldn't finish against frosh QB.

West Virginia had 271 rushing yards in 34-17 win vs Auburn LY (-3.5), averaging 7.7 yds/rush (TY was 445-260), scoring 31 unanswered points. WVa is dog for first time since their 44-34 loss at Louisville in '06 (+1). Auburn scored 86 points in winning its first two games, running ball for 300+ yards both times. Tigers also had 454 passing yards, so they have had tremendous balance, but this is big step up in competition.

Tennessee as 29-point dog? Vols lost 59-20/30-6 to Florida last couple years, and they lost 19-15 at home to UCLA last week, passing for just 93 yards with three picks. Kiffin opened his yap about Florida when he got hired, now he's in Swamp where Gators beat Troy 56-6 last week-- they're 11-2 vs spread as a home favorite since '07. Long day for Vols.

Baylor (+13) lost 31-28 at UConn LY, giving up 225 rushing yards to Huskies, who are 5-14 as road dog since '04. Bears are 8-3 as home fave since 2001- they had 197 rushing yards in 24-21 win at Wake, surviving 90 penalty yards. UConn has road win at Ohio already, but they gave up nine points in last 1:30 of brutal 12-10 home loss to UNC last week.

Kentucky beat Louisville 27-2/40-34 last two years; this is just second time in last nine series meetings UK is favored (1-2 as series fave). UK held Louisville to 154 rushing yards last two meetings, after they ran it for 1,073 yards in four meetings before that. Cards are 2-3 as a road dog last four years- first road start for their QB. Wildcats have SEC opener with Florida (22 straight losses to Gators) up next.

Florida State was down 9-7 with 1:00 to play as a 34-point favorite to a I-AA team last week, snuck out with an ugly 19-9 win, now face BYU squad that won at Tulane by 50 and beat Oklahoma in Dallas. Seminoles are 2-4 as a dog last two years- hard to endorse them after debacle last week. Cougars outgained Oklahoma by 92 yards but Bradford got KO'd.

Georgia's schedule is too hard- they lost 24-10 at Oklahoma State, then outlasted Gamecocks 41-37 last week (outgained 427-308, 13 penalties), so they've been tested plenty, while Arkansas' only game was 48-10 win over I-AA Missouri State. Hogs are just 11-14 vs spread in last 25 home games. Dawgs covered 12 of last 17 SEC games, won 30 of 35 on road.

Texas Tech ruined Texas' season LY with dramatic 39-33 win, but now Tech comes to Austin with QB making first road start- Raiders lost last five visits here by average of 28 points. Tech held Texas to 80-92 yards in last two series wins; Horns had 205+ in last eight wins. Texas is 16-9 vs spread in last 25 games as HF. Tech is 2-5 as a road dog since 2005.

Oregon State came east and got waxed 34-3 by Cincinnati two years ago on a Thursday night (-3.5); Beavers had seven turnovers that night. OSU is 9-4 as home favorite last three years- they had 184 rushing yards, 198 passing in 23-21 win in Vegas last week (-6). Bearcats are 9-4 vs spread on road under Kelly after winning 47-15 at Rutgers Labor Day weekend.

Other games

-- Ball State lost to I-AA UNH last week, after losing as 17-pt favorite in opener. Army covered three of last four games as home favorite.

-- Purdue scored 88 points in first two games; they're 6-3 as home fave since 2007. Northern Illinois is 4-1 as a road dog under coach Kill.

-- Michigan had dramatic win last week, has Big 11 opener next week, so letdown alert vs EMU squad that lost 27-24 at Northwestern last week; they're 17-15 as road dog since '07, and have a senior QB.

-- Penn State won its last three games vs Temple by combined score of 123-3- they have revenge game with Iowa on deck. Five members of the Temple coaching staff played at Penn State- so much for mercy.

-- North Carolina scored nine points in last 1:30 last week, getting out of Nutmeg State with 12-10 win. ECU is 13-4 as road dog after getting shut out in second half of 35-20 loss at revenge-minded West Virginia.

-- Miami OH lost first two games under new coach 42-0/48-0, getting outgained by 287 yards/game- they've lost seven games in row, dating back to LY. Western Michigan is 6-8 as home favorite since 2004.

-- Colorado is 8-12 as home favorite since 2003, 15-22 vs spread in their last 37 non-league games. Wyoming is 3-10 as a road dog since 2006.

-- Iowa covered four of last 13 as home favorite; they're 9-18 vs spread in game after their last 27 wins. Arizona covered three of their last four tries as a road underdog.

-- Akron is 5-7 as home favorite since 2005. Indiana is putrid 13-29 as road dog this decade- they're 2-0 after beating WMU 23-19 last week, in game where Hoosiers survived 13 penalties for 106 yards.

-- Kansas is 16-6 as home favorite since '04; they covered 21 of their last 28 home games overall. Duke was outgained 385-236 at West Point last week but scored four second half TDs to beat the Cadets 35-19.

-- Virginia is 6-12 as road dog since '03; they were outrushed 203-57 in a 30-14 home loss to TCU last week. Southern Miss won C-USA opener last week, 26-19- they're 8-11 vs spread as home favorite since '05.

-- Washington coach Sarkisian was USC OC before coming to Seattle; his Huskies lost opener 31-23 here to LSU (+16). Trojans are off comeback win at Ohio State- they crushed Washington 56-0 LY (-45).

-- UCLA will have freshman QB making first start with Prince out (jaw) Bruins are 14-7 as home favorite since '04. Kansas State got upset down at UL-Lafayette last week 17-15; they covered five of six as road dog.

-- Toledo lost 52-31 at Purdue in opener, then crushed Colorado 54-38 last Friday. Ohio State lost late to USC, is taking ton of grief this week- they're 28-15 vs spread in last 43 games as a favorite.

-- Washington State gave up 626 yards in 38-20 loss to Hawai'i last week in Seattle (+2.5); Coogs are 2-5 as home dog under Wulff. SMU travels a long way, trying to go 3-0 for first time since 1984.

-- San Diego State (-11) beat Idaho 45-17 LY, going 26-40/445 thru air. Aztecs are 0-3 vs spread as a road favorite since 2004. Vandals are 4-7 in last 11 games as a home underdog.

-- Colorado State snuck past I-AA Weber State 24-23 last week, after an upset of rival Colorado in opener; Rams are 7-4 as road dog since 2001. Nevada had last week off after getting trounced 35-0 at Notre Dame.

-- Marshall is 8-2-1 as home dog this decade; they gave up 44 yards in a 52-10 loss at Va Tech LW. Bowling Green led in second half at Missouri last week, lost 27-20- they covered last four tries as road favorite.

-- Cal came east LY and got upset by Maryland; Bears are 1-6 vs spread as road favorite, have Pac-10 opener vs Oregon next week. Minnesota is 2-0 after beating Air Force; they're 3-8 as a home underdog since '02.

-- Buffalo won opener at UTEP of C-USA; they're 15-5 as dog on road under Gill. Central Florida lost league opener at Southern Miss last week getting outgained 409-194, 156-15 on the ground.

-- Poor Rice- they got whipped 55-10 in Lubbock, giving up 508 yards in air; now they get angry Oklahoma State club off loss to Houston as a 16-point favorite. Cowboys are 10-4-1 vs spread coming off a loss.

-- Oklahoma won last four games vs Tulsa by average score of 47-9, as Hurricane lost two visits here, 31-15/58-0. Freshman QB Jones got first start vs I-AA Idaho State last week, completing 18-32/286 yards.

-- Texas A&M is 11-8 as home favorite since '04, just 9-18 vs spread in last 27 non-league games. Utah State covered 10 of last 15 as road dog.

-- Iowa State got crushed 35-3 in rivalry game last week, throwing five picks; Cyclones are 0-4 as road favorite since 2002. Kent State is 4-6 as home dog last four years- they lost 34-7 last week at BC (+21).

-- Home side won four of last five Air Force-New Mexico games; Lobos lost first two games this year 41-6/44-10, converting 5-29 on 3rd down. Air Force covered three of last four tries as a road favorite.

-- New Mexico State beat local rival UTEP 29-24/34-33 last two years, but Aggies struggled to beat Prairie View 21-18- they completed 8 of 20 passes, not good. UTEP is 3-7 as a road favorite under Price.

-- Hawai'i spent week on mainland after waxing Washington State 38-20 in Seattle; they're 10-7 vs spread in last 17 road games. UNLV is 4-14 as a home favorite since 2002.

-- Stanford won/covered six of last seven games vs San Jose State, with five of six wins by 21+ points. Cardinal are 9-3 as home fave since '02. Spartans are 11-22 as a road underdog since 2003.

-- Florida International covered in 40-14 loss at Alabama last week, with a KR for TD; they're 5-8 as road dog under Cristobal. Rutgers is 11-8 as a home favorite the last 4+ seasons.

-- North Texas won as 17-point dog in opener, then lost in OT to Ohio last week; they're improved, but Alabama beat Sun Belt's FIU 40-14 in home opener last week. Crimson Tide has SEC opener next week.

-- Middle Tennessee (+13) gained 402 yards in 24-14 win vs Maryland LY; MTSU beat Memphis 31-14 LW (TY 436-219). Terps needed OT to beat I-AA JMU last week, after getting crushed at Cal in opener.

-- South Carolina is off pair of tense games (7-3 win; 37-41 loss); they're 7-3 as home fave, but have ESPN game vs Ole Miss Thursday. FAU has senior QB, but they lost opener 49-3 at Nebraska (+21.5).

-- UAB's wild comeback fell just short vs SMU last week; they scored 77 points in first two games. Blazers won last two meetings vs in-state rival Troy, 27-7/21-3. Trojans are 10-7 as a home favorite since 2004.

-- UL-Lafayette upset Kansas State at home last week, now visit Baton Rouge, where LSU covered just three of last 13 as home favorite. Tigers won SEC opener last week, are at division rival Miss State next week.

-- Arizona State is 7-4 as home favorite under Erickson; they need sharp effort here with trip to Georgia on deck. UL-Monroe is 13-7 as a road dog since 2006.

 
Posted : September 17, 2009 7:07 am
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CFB Streaks & Notes
By SportsPic

Eastern Michigan at Michigan

Wolverines off a thrilling 38-34 win at home over Notre Dame try to go 3-0 for the first time since 2006 as they play Eastern Michigan on Saturday.

Freshman QB Tate Forcier with a chock full of confidence after hitting 46-of-53 passes for 419 yards 5 TD's in the first two games should enjoy the assignment vs Eastern Michigan.

Eagles 10-47 (7-25 ATS) outside the MAC and little success against Big Ten opponents losing all twenty-six it has played against Big Ten schools including 0-8 against Wolverines will suffer more hard knocks.

But can Eagles keep it close enough to cover the whopping 24 points ? Just maybe, the last time these two hooked up Wolverines won 33-22 missing a trip to the cash window as -28.5 point favorites. Keep in mind that despite Wolverines success vs MAC opponents (15-1) they've struggled cashing of late going 1-5 against-the-number and are 1-5 ATS last six laying 20 or more points.

Michigan State at Notre Dame

Notre Dame responded well in it's opener defeating Nevada 35-ZIP but Fighting Irish folded under pressure last week dropping a 38-34 heart-breaker to Wolverines as -3 point road favorites.

Returning to Notre Dame Stadium one would expect Charlie Weis' troops to have an edge but Irish are just 6-8 both SU & ATS in front of the home crowd the past two plus seasons and visiting Spartans have won 9-of-13 (9-2-1 ATS) meetings including six straight at the stadium cashing in each case.

Total players will be looking for a high scoring affair knowing the 'Over' has prevailed in 4-of-5 meetings, Fighting Irish are 6-3-1 'Over' last ten at home, Spartans are 11-3 'Over' as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0

 
Posted : September 17, 2009 7:16 am
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Big Game Weekend
By Bodog

NCAAF Weekend Top Games

The weekend is almost here. Are your football bets ready to roll? Having second thoughts? We’ll make life easier for you by looking at this week’s Fantastic Five, the best football games of the litter as selected by our Blue Ribbon panel – the beer, that is. All times are Eastern; for the latest football odds, make sure to visit Bodog Sports early and often.

Saturday: No. 3 USC at Washington (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Our football betting spree starts in Seattle with a can’t-miss game between the mighty Trojans and the much-improved Huskies. Odds were pending at press time, in part because it’s uncertain whether superfrosh Matt Barkley (shoulder) will start for USC. Aaron Corp was expected to win the starting job after an excellent spring session before getting hurt during the fall camp, so the Trojans are good either way.

The larger angle here is the fact that Washington is now coached by Steve Sarkisian, who along with defensive coordinator Nick Holt worked under Pete Carroll at USC. This is an information advantage that is likely to go unrecognized by the betting public. Sarkasian’s work with QB Jake Locker (who missed most of 2008 with a broken thumb) gives Husky supporters ample hope for a strong performance in their Pac-10 opener.

Saturday: Florida State at No. 7 Brigham Young (7:00 p.m.)

The Seminoles got taken down a peg in their season opener by the Miami Hurricanes, and they looked awful in their 19-9 victory over the Jacksonville State Gamecocks of the FCS. But let’s not jump to conclusions (yet) about fading FSU. This team is 7-3-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog, and on Saturday, the ‘Noles are laying 7.5 points to BYU.

The Cougars have vaulted up the charts after a pair of victories, including that jaw-dropping 14-13 win over the Oklahoma Sooners (-22.5) to start the season. But that’s the game where Sooners QB and Heisman winner Sam Bradford was injured. And the next game against the Tulane Green Wave (+18.5) wasn’t much of a test. BYU ended last year on a 1-8 ATS slide before covering against OU and Tulane.

 
Posted : September 18, 2009 6:18 am
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Top 25 cheat sheet: Week 3

Here’s your primer for Week 3 NCAA action on Saturday. No games involving FCS teams are included. All injury/news updates as of Thursday afternoon.

Tennessee at No. 1 Florida (-29.5, 51.5)

Lane Kiffin says he doesn’t think he put his team in a tough spot with all his verbal trash talk about Florida. In fact, he says losing to UCLA last week might take some pressure off. Jonathan Crompton stays at QB despite his struggles.

Urban Meyer is telling his kids not to talk about Kiffin this week. Obviously, oddsmakers believe Meyer will run it up like he did to Mark Richt and Georgia last year. UF is unbeaten vs. the Vols under Meyer.

Texas Tech at No. 2 Texas (-17.5, 67)

Red Raiders QB Taylor Potts has thrown nine TD passes and for more than 200 yards in both games, but those were against creampuffs. It’s the earliest in a season TTU has played UT since 1955.

Highlights of Michael Crabtree’s catch last year that ruined Texas’ national title hopes have been playing all week in Austin. Great quote from UT coach Mack Brown on revenge as a factor: “Revenge is fine if that helps. We tell the players to figure out what turns you on, what excites you. We don't care."

No. 3 Southern Cal at Washington (+18.5, 52)

The big news here is whether USC QB Matt Barkley and star safety Taylor Mays will play after both were injured last week. The L.A. media seems to think Aaron Corp will start for Barkley. Mays seems likely to play since it’s a return to his hometown.

The Huskies could be set up to trap USC here, as coach Steve Sarkisian, the former USC offensive coordinator, knows the Trojans as well as anyone.

North Texas at No. 4 Alabama (-38.5, 52.5)

The Mean Green won’t have starting QB Riley Dodge, as he separated his shoulder last week against Ohio. Nathan Tune, who is 15-of-28 for 124 yards in his career, gets the nod.

The Tide could be missing two key offensive players: receiver Julio Jones and running back Roy Upchurch hadn’t practiced this week as of this writing due to injuries. Both left last week’s game vs. FIU in the first quarter.

Temple at No. 5 Penn State (-29.5, 45.5)

The Owls catch a break in that Penn State star linebacker Navorro Bowman is likely out again this week with a groin injury. Temple also has had two weeks to prepare for PSU, for what that’s worth.

Under Joe Paterno, the Nittany Lions are 25-0 against the Owls, including last year’s 45-3 victory. PSU hasn’t lost in this series since 1941.

No. 7 California at Minnesota (+14, 53)

The Bears and Jahvid Best have been dominant so far this season, but this is also their first road game and Cal has dropped its past four away from home.

The Gophers have won six games in a row against non-conference opponents and this will be the first ranked team to visit new TCF Bank Stadium. Maybe Minnesota’s fortunes will change at the new place, as it has dropped 10 in a row to ranked teams.

Louisiana-Lafayette at No. 7 LSU (-27, 52)

The Ragin’ Cajuns stunned Kansas State last week, 17-15, for their first win against a BCS conference school since 1996. Perhaps LSU will get caught looking ahead to the start of SEC play next week.

LSU has won 22 straight games against in-state foes and 21 games in a row against non-conference opponents. The Tigers have outscored ULL 274-3 in the past five meetings (albeit dating to 1936).

Florida State at No. 9 BYU (-7.5, 55)

FSU’s passing game is rolling behind Christian Ponder and the Seminoles never seem to lose these types of games: They have dropped just two games to non-BCS schools since 1989.

BYU’s defense has been outstanding, having not allowed a play more than 20 yards all season. FSU’s rushing game, meanwhile, has just 188 total yards.

No. 11 Ohio State vs. Toledo (+21, 57.5)

Could this be a letdown game for what has to be a disappointed Ohio State team in the wake of another big game loss? Hard to see an upset here, since the Buckeyes haven’t lost to a team from their state in 88 years.

If the Rockets play anything like they did against Colorado last Friday, they will cover. They had 624 total yards in racking up 54 points. QB Aaron Opelt is completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 742 yards with seven touchdowns.

Tulsa at No. 12 Oklahoma (-17.5, 58)

Look at the over here. Tulsa has led the nation in total offense each of the past two seasons and is averaging 40.5 points this year. This would be a signature win in the program’s history; the last against OU was in 1996.

While OU’s offense misses Sam Bradford, the Sooner defense should have its way with a Tulsa offensive line that features three new starters. The Golden Hurricane have allowed eight sacks this year against weak competition and they can’t run the ball.

No. 18 Nebraska at No. 14 Virginia Tech (-5, 50.5)

The Huskers have won six games in a row but are still looking for that type of victory that announces the program is back. QB Zac Lee, thought to need to time to learn on the job, leads the Big 12 in passing efficiency and ranks seventh nationally.

Virginia Tech simply doesn’t lose home non-conference games, winning the past 31. The Hokies switched to a two tight end alignment last week vs. Marshall and the running game exploded for 444 yards.

No. 16 Utah at Oregon (-5, 54)

The Utes could suffer a big blow if starting running back Matt Asiata, who leads the nation in carries and is 10th in the country in yards per game, can’t go. He is questionable with a shoulder injury.

Oregon did find its running game without LeGarrette Blount last week, rushing for 193 yards against Purdue. The Ducks have won their past five home games against ranked non-conference teams.

Rice at No. 17 Oklahoma State (-32.5, 66.5)

Rice does catch a break in that OSU star running back Kendall Hunter is doubtful with a leg injury. But the Owls have allowed 99 points already this year.

The Cowboys figure to be very focused after losing to Houston last week. Plus Rice hasn’t beaten a Big 12 team since 1994.

East Carolina at No. 19 North Carolina (-7.5, 41.5)

ECU coach Skip Holtz was thinking about a QB change but will stay with struggling Patrick Pinkney one more week. UNC likely will be without one of its starting guards and for sure its starting center and tight end due to injuries.

UNC’s defense should dominate. The Pirates rank No. 102 in the country in total offense, while the Heels’ defense that ranks No. 7 in the country, allowing 174.50 yards per game.

No. 20 Georgia at Arkansas (-1.5, 53.5)

Georgia’s offense seemed to find itself last week and should get once-projected starting RB Caleb King back this week. He missed the first two games with a hamstring injury.

Arkansas seems set up well here, as the Razorbacks basically were able to gameplan for Georgia all summer considering they opened with Missouri State and were off last week. The Hogs have never beaten the Dawgs in Fayetteville.

No. 21 Cincinnati at No. 24 Oregon State (+1, 55.5)

Will the Bearcats deal with a less than 100 percent Jacquizz Rodgers? The Beavers’ star back didn’t practice the full week because of an ankle injury but says he will play Saturday.

Assuming Rodgers is fine, the Beavers should win if he gains 100 yards. OSU has won 15 of its last 16 games when it has a player rush for 100 yards. Rodgers is averaging 134.5 in two games this year.

Duke at No. 23 Kansas (-23.5, 51)

The Blue Devils will start QB Thaddeus Lewis, but coach David Cutcliffe said that freshman Sean Renfree, who replaced Lewis last week and looked good, has earned the right to see some snaps.

Duke doesn’t seem likely to win here, considering it has dropped 36 straight games to ranked foes since 1994. KU is 18-2 in its past 20 non-conference games.

 
Posted : September 18, 2009 6:54 am
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Sooners, Tulsa set for shootout
By AllStar.com

If you like in-state match ups we have a good one for you this Saturday as #12 ranked Oklahoma (1-1) takes on unranked but unbeaten Tulsa (2-0).

If you’re thinking this game could be one-sided, think again. There is a Big 12 team playing, a conference where things are unpredictable and anything goes. Remember Oklahoma State, ranked in the top 5 was upset by Houston and the week before, BYU upset then highly ranked Oklahoma. The Sooners are hoping it doesn’t happen again.

With Sam Bradford out due to a week one shoulder injury, Oklahoma expects to have Landry Jones under center for the second straight game, when it goes for its fifth consecutive victory over Tulsa.

Oklahoma (1-1) was shocked 14-13 by Brigham Young in its opener Sept. 5, and lost 2008 Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford in the process. Sooners coach Bob Stoops would not answer questions about Bradford’s status this week, though it’s unlikely the quarterback will play. Which means that Landry Jones should get the call again? The redshirt freshman completed 18 of 32 passes for 286 yards and three touchdowns last Saturday in a 64-0 beating of Idaho State.

“Landry, in a short period of time, could not have handled himself better,” Stoops said. “With everybody, with dealing with the pressure of it all, with his chemistry with the team, with everything.”

The Sooners man-handled the over-matched Bengals from beginning to end, outgaining them 564-44.

“It’s hard to judge,” Stoops said. “I don’t want to take anything away from Idaho State, but just the competition and all the advantages that we have that they don’t.”

The coach won’t have that problem this week against the Golden Hurricane. Tulsa (2-0) led the nation in total offense each of the past two seasons and is one of only 11 teams with at least 10 wins in both of those years.

“Tulsa, we recognize, is an excellent football team,” Stoops said. “The last couple of years, winning 10 and 11 games and winning their bowl games. Offensively, they have led the nation in total offense the last two years and are on track again this year with a very high-scoring and explosive offense.”

The Golden Hurricane have a chip on their shoulder and look to get avenge a 2007 loss in Norman that saw the Sooners whoop Tula 62-21. “I would say we’re a lot better program than 2007,” Tulsa coach Todd Graham said. “There’s no substitute for experience. (Former quarterback) Paul (Smith) had played against Oklahoma in 2005 and came out and played well for less than a half in 2007. I will tell you we’re a better defensive football team.”

Smith threw for 47 touchdowns in 2007 and David Johnson 46 in 2008. This year, junior G.J. Kinne is the starter. Kinne, a transfer from Texas threw for four touchdowns and 310 yards last weekend in a 35-22 win at New Mexico.

Tulsa is starting the season with three straight road games, but playing the biggest fish in the state is a game they’ve looked forward to and one that would give them even more credibility. The two schools are within 104 miles of each other and hatred from Tulsa runs high.

“This is what our guys work for,” Graham said. “This is the kind of games our guys like to play in. This is why you work the way you work. We have an opportunity to be on the national stage and an opportunity to play one of the best teams in the nation.”

The Golden Hurricane also gained confidence from seeing another Conference USA team knock off a Big 12 powerhouse last week when Houston upset then-No. 5 Oklahoma State 45-35.

The Sooners expect to have their hands full, and are eager to see Jones run an offense that lost a major weapon in All-America tight end Jermaine Gresham, who is out with a season-ending knee surgery.

“Even though Jermaine is out, the offense still has a lot of guys left,” Sooners cornerback and Tulsa native Dominique Franks said. “It’s just all those guys stepping up and being able to make plays once they get the ball in their hands.”

The Sooners have a bye after this Saturday’s match-up and then travel to Florida to face-off against 20th ranked Miami, FL, while Tulsa will face Sam Houston State on September 26th.

Betting Trends:
Tulsa is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games
Oklahoma is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as the FAVORITE
Oklahoma is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games
The UNDER is 4-0 in Tulsa’s last 4 games
The OVER is 10-4 in Oklahoma’s last 14 non-conference games

 
Posted : September 18, 2009 6:55 am
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Hokies host Nebraska
By AllStar.com

The glory days of winning National Championships are in the rear view mirror for the Cornhuskers, but fans in Nebraska have their hopes set high with a #19 ranking and a (2-0) start.

Although reality says they’ve beaten two lesser opponents, the fact is they’re still (2-0). Nebraska will get a chance to see how far the program has come when they visit #13 Virginia Tech this Saturday.

The Cornhuskers look to open the voter’s eyes, as they will attempt to snap Virginia Tech’s non-conference 31-game winning streak.

First-year starter Zac Lee has lead the Nebraska offense to a (2-0) start. Lee completed 27 of 35 passes for 340 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the Cornhuskers’ 38-9 win over Arkansas State last Saturday after throwing for 213 yards and two TDs in a season-opening 49-3 victory over Florida Atlantic.

The junior quarterback from San Francisco completed passes to 11 different receivers last week and led the Huskers to scores on five of their first six possessions.

“He’s playing at a high level,” Nebraska coach Bo Pelini said. “Other than the quarterback being new, we do have experience and some guys who have played some games. Our offense has been playing well, and I expect that to continue. I like what I’ve seen from that group.”

Bo Pelini’s offense has combined for 984 yards in the first two games, but is sure to get a tougher test against the Hokies (1-1).

Last season the Huskers’ offense struggled against the Hokies tough defense, losing to Virginia tech 35-30. Nebraska was limited to 55 rushing yards on 25 attempts but rallied for two touchdowns in the final eight minutes and ended up suffering its third non-conference home loss since 1991.

Virginia Tech who lost to #4 ranked Alabama in week one 34-24, looked sharp last week against the Marshall, trouncing the Thundering Herd 52-10.

“Coming off of last week and people asking, ‘Could we get back up?’ ‘How much is that going to hurt us?’ ‘Mentally, what did it do to us?’” Coach Frank Beamer said. “I thought our kids and coaches went out there and gave them a response today.”

VirginiaTech’s offense came out firing on all cylinders, gaining 444 of its 605 yards on the ground, as Ryan Williams and fellow freshman David Wilson each rushed for more than 160, a first in modern school history.

“We just needed to prove to ourselves that we can do it,” said Williams, who had 164 yards and three touchdowns on 16 carries.

Virginia Tech’s Lane Stadium is known for being one of the toughest places to play if you’re a visitor, but Nebraska coach Bo Pelini isn’t worried. “The fans aren’t playing,” he said. “It’s 11 on 11. It’s between the lines, and you have to execute.” “That’s why you practice. I expect our team to be fully prepared to go on the road and meet the challenge ahead.”

TRENDS
Cornhuskers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Cornhuskers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog
Hokies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in September.
Hokies are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
Hokies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 8-3 in Hokies last 11 games on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Hokies last 7 games as a favorite.

 
Posted : September 18, 2009 6:55 am
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College Football Weekly Predictions - Week 3
by Alan Matthews

That’s more like it! We evened our season record at 3-3 on the sides last week thanks to Kansas covering the -12.5 against UTEP and West Virginia covering the 6.5 it was giving East Carolina in a 35-20 win. The loss was North Carolina, which beat Connecticut but fell a few points off a cover.

The first two weeks in college football are arguably the most unpredictable. Oftentimes a team doesn’t look as good or as bad as it did in Week 1, as the old saying is that every team makes its biggest leap forward in Week 2. In my opinion, that will start to show in Week 3 now that just about every school has played one home and one away game. Now we try to find a rhythm.

Here are the three games I like this week:

Michigan State at Notre Dame, Saturday, 3:30 p.m.

Current line: The Irish are 10-point favorites. A smart bettor would have been all over this line about 24 hours ago – it was at 11.5. So obviously some smart Michigan State backers were.

Who the public likes: Approximately 59 percent favor Notre Dame, and that hasn’t moved more than a percentage point or two.

I understand why the oddsmakers are making Notre Dame such a big favorite. After all, the Irish offense seemed to go up and down the field at will last week against Michigan, but all the breaks (and calls, in my opinion) favored the Wolverines, and they won. Before that game, we saw the Spartans lose at home to MAC school Central Michigan, 29-27. Sure, it was fortunate that the Chips got a final-minute onside kick, but if you watched that game at all, and I did, then you know that CMU deserved to win. But history says this will be a close game and that State might win outright. Eight of the last 10 games in the series have been decided by 10 points or less, and the visiting team has won seven of the past eight. Overall, the Spartans have won nine of 12 in this series, including six in a row in South Bend – the longest winning streak of any opponent at Notre Dame Stadium. Those are all called trends, folks.

Take Michigan State and the points.

Tennessee at Florida, Saturday, 3:30 p.m.

Current line: Florida -30. You read that right, Gators minus 30. Believe it or not, this line opened about 1.5 points lower at most books, so apparently a majority of bettors don’t think this line is obscene.

Who the public likes: Despite the line movement, it appears backers of Tennessee are gaining. The Vols are getting approximately 48 percent of the action as of this writing.

This probably will be the most-talked about spread in college football this season. You know the story by now: Lane Kiffin, on the day he was introduced in Knoxville as UT’s new coach, claimed he was looking forward to singing “Rocky Top” after beating the Gators in Gainesville this year. And then Kiffin basically called UF coach Urban Meyer a cheater for calling a recruit while he was on campus – Kiffin was reprimanded for that and apologized.

The last time someone “dissed” Meyer, it was Mark Richt with that infamous Georgia end zone celebration in 2007. So last year the Gators put a 49-10 whipping on the Dawgs, which included two timeouts by Meyer in the final minute. UF has won four in a row in this series and the past two by a combined 63 points. But the Vols have pride, too, and the Gators almost might be trying too hard to run it up. Only five games in this series’ rivalry have seen the winning margin (for either team) exceed this year’s spread. That Tennessee defense will keep this reasonable.

Take Tennessee and the points.

Cincinnati at Oregon State, Saturday, 6:45 p.m.

Current line: Beavers are getting 1.5 at home. This line has actually moved about a half-point toward OSU.

Who the public likes: This is shocking to me, as approximately 84 percent favor the Bearcats.

This game is a matchup of two very underrated programs. There is a key injury to be aware of as the best player on the field, Oregon State RB Jacquizz Rodgers, missed some practice this week with an ankle injury, but he says there’s no question he will start Saturday. Rodgers, last season’s Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year, is off to a better start than 2008, averaging 134.5 yards on the ground per game -- OSU is 15-1 in its past 16 when it has a 100-yard rusher. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is second nationally behind No. 1 Florida in scoring offense (58.5 ppg). But the Beaver defense has allowed just 28 points over the last three games, including last year’s Sun Bowl. Plus, the Beavers have won 26 straight nonconference home games.

Take Oregon State and the points.

Docsports.com

 
Posted : September 18, 2009 9:56 am
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Top Saturday Games
By Brobury Sports

It’s another big Saturday in college football and BroburySports.com is highlighting some of the best on the docket.

# 19 Nebraska at #13 Virginia Tech – 3:30 pm ET

Virginia Tech is a five-point favorite with an Over/Under of 51 points.

This is incredibly the only Top 25 matchup on Saturday. The teams met last year in Lincoln with Virginia Tech winning 35-30 as seven-point dogs.

Nebraska (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) is averaging 492 yards of total offense and 295 passing yards with new quarterback Zac Lee. Those games have come against Arkansas State and Florida Atlantic, which is light years away from playing at Va. Tech. The Cornhuskers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog between 3.5-10 points.

Virginia Tech (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) had a tough loss versus Alabama to start the season, but rebounded with a 52-10 win over Marshall. The Hokies have won 31 straight games at home versus non-conference opponents, but are only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.

Tennessee at #1 Florida – 3:30 pm ET

Florida is a giant 29.5-point favorite with an Over/Under of 52 points.

This game is marked by a lot of bad blood as new Tennessee coach Lane Kiffin predicted victory over Florida right after he was hired. Kiffin also mocked coach Urban Meyer’s recruiting tactics.

Florida (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) is the near unanimous choice as the top team in the land. The offense is led by Tim Tebow and is averaging over 300 yards passing even with several new targets. The running game is also averaging over 300 yards and the ‘D’ has been lights-out with every starter returning from last year.

The only question has been the easy schedule of Charleston Southern and Troy.

Tennessee (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) is coming off a disappointing loss to UCLA that was punctuated by three interceptions from Jonathan Crompton. The Vols do have good running backs, but Florida will stack the line of scrimmage and force the ball down the field. Florida was only a seven point favorite the last two years, but won by an average margin of 31.5 points.

Texas Tech at #2 Texas – 8 pm ET

Texas is a 17.5-point favorite with an Over/Under of 67 points. The game is on ABC primetime.

Texas had just one loss all of last year and it was at Texas Tech. That cost the Longhorns a shot in the national title game. Is it revenge time on Saturday?

Texas (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) has won each of their games by more than 30 points, but failed to cover the huge spread each time. Quarterback Colt McCoy has been piling up big numbers and he’ll continue to do so as he shoots for the Heisman. This is the first real test for the Longhorns’ defense which had a couple of key losses from last year.

Texas Tech (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) has a new signal caller with Taylor Potts replacing Graham Harrell, but the results have remained the same. Potts is throwing for 430 YPG as the system under Mike Leach seems to be able to plug in any player. If they can keep up some of the offensive momentum from wins over Rice and North Dakota, it will be hard for Texas to cover this big spread.

 
Posted : September 18, 2009 10:33 am
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Game of the day: Texas Tech at Texas
By Nick Parsons

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns (-18, 66)

Last year, two things prevented the Texas Longhorns from playing in the national title game: the lack of a playoff and Michael Crabtree's game-winning touchdown against them in the Texas Tech game. The touchdown came with one second left on the clock and served as the only loss for the Longhorns in 2008.

This time around the No. 2 ranked Longhorns (2-0) hope for revenge and play host to the unranked Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0) in Austin on ABC's feature game (Sat, 8 p.m. ET). The game comes a bit early this year, with last year's tilt being held in November.

Colt's curtain call

This will be the fourth and final time that QB Colt McCoy starts against Texas Tech and he has had nothing but success. In the previous three meetings, he has thrown for a combined 818 yards and 10 TDs.

As a Freshman, Texas was down 21-0 in the first quarter and McCoy responded in the second quarter with three of his own leading to a 35-31 win. The next year, Texas won 59-43 with McCoy responsible for four TDs in the air and two TDs on the ground. Last year wasn't so bad either, McCoy had to deal with the rowdy crowd in Lubbock and nearly won the game after being down 22-6 at the half.

McCoy now has the benefit of playing in Austin and also has extra motivation from last year's heartbreaker. When Crabtree walked into the endzone last year the camera immediately panned to a shocked McCoy.

“I remember me standing on the sidelines saying, ‘That is probably the greatest play I’ve ever seen in my life, and I can’t do anything about it.’,” he told the media.

It’s no secret that one of the defensive keys to the game is keeping McCoy in check. With all the highlight plays from last year's contest, what is often forgotten was Texas Tech's defensive success.

Defensive tackle Colby Whitlock was a pest from the start, scoring the game’s first points by tackling Chris Ogbonnaya in the endzone for a safety. For the rest of the game, he dominated the Longhorns’ offensive line leaving McCoy little time to make big plays. McCoy and the offensive line also had problems reading what Tech calls the Joker Position, which involves an LB roaming around the line of scrimmage.

Texas Tech returns most of its key defensive players from last year, but is thin on the line with several injuries. The Longhorns’ offensive line goes two deep and will look to isolate Whitlock. Offensive coordinator Greg Davis is also aware of all the problems on reads from last year.

Bront Bird will be playing the Joker position and he had problems in pass coverage against North Dakota and Rice. Davis will look to exploit this and he also feels that he has a bit of an upgrade at running back with Vondrell McGee and Tre' Newton. McCoy was the team's leading rusher last year.

Dealing with the spread

In last week's feature game, an unproven Quarterback in USC's Matt Barkley had his first true test on the road against Ohio State. This time, bettors have the same in QB Taylor Potts running the Texas Tech spread with his first big start in Austin.

But Potts may actually be an upgrade from Graham Harrell. He has a stronger arm and is perhaps the most talented QB that Texas Tech has ever had. As a four-star recruit he was rated the 14th best QB out of high school.

In last week's 55-10 win over Rice, Potts produced typical Texas Tech numbers going 36-57 for 456 yards and seven TDs.

But the actual key to last year's victory was the rushing game, which kept the Longhorns secondary honest. From 2004 to 2007, Texas Tech passed for an average of 80 percent on its offensive plays and lost in all four games. Last year passing only accounted for 65 percent of the plays with Tech rushing for 105 yards.

Texas has the depth and talent in its secondary to handle an aerial assault and if Tech is to have any success it will have to improve upon its run pass ratio. Last week, Texas Tech only rushed 14 times for 52 yards.

Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp also seemed to adjust to Tech's gameplan last year in the second half. The result might have been different had safety Blake Gideon not dropped a sure interception towards the end of last year's game. Gideon returns this year as a sophomore.

The key for Texas this year will be to put pressure on the unproven Potts. Texas Tech's offensive line spreads out a bit further than most teams and last year Muschamp made the mistake of trying to run through the gaps, which gave the Red Raiders too much time in the pocket. This year, Muschamp may change his gameplan and get talented Sergio Kindle and Lamarr Houston to just bull rush straight at the linemen

Dealing with the other spread

The line for the game currently sits at -17.5 at most books in favor of the Longhorns and could possibly move higher as kickoff approaches. This is a far cry from last year when Texas was ranked No. 1 and Texas Tech No. 6 and the spread was -3.5.

Texas was 6-1 ATS when the spread was two touchdowns or more last year. It’s been a long time since Texas Tech has been a double-digit underdog. The last time was when the Red Raiders were 10-point underdogs against Texas in 2006. Tech's early 21-0 start no doubt helped them cover the spread in a 35-31 loss.

Texas Tech was also a 17-point underdog against Texas in 2005 and it lost straight up and ATS 52-17.

The Longhorns are 0-2 ATS this year, however, both games have been coin tosses with Texas only failing to cover by an average of 1.5 points.

If Texas Tech can’t establish its running game and Colt McCoy puts in a Heisman performance, Texas can easily cover the 17.5 spread. But even in a blowout, Tech's offensive pace could increase the chance of a backdoor cover late in the game. The first half spread is -10.

Bettors wishing to bet Texas to win straight up will have to pay $1,000 to win $100. Moneyline for Texas Tech hovers in the +650 range.

The total currently sits at 66 in most places with last year’s game going over the total of 71. But once again, that line was pretty sharp with the total score being 72. The total for the series has not gone under since 2005.

Texas Tech Quick Bits

- Tech got into penalty trouble last week with 11 causing a loss of 90 yards.
- Starter DE Ra'Jon Henley will not be traveling to Austin

Texas Quick Bits

- Redshirt Freshman RB Tre' Newton is listed as co-starter alongside Vondrell McGee
- DT Lamarr Houston was named Big 12 Player of the Week Monday
- Starting RG Michael Huey who missed the game vs. Wyoming, is expected to start
- LB Jared Norton and G Mason Walters are not expected to play
- ESPN College Gameday will be in Austin

Weather

The Weather Network has now started to measure comfort level for fans in the form a Spectator Index for every college football game. The game in Austin was given a Spectator Index of 7 (out of 10). A low of 69 is expected at night with a 20 percent chance of precipitation and NE winds at 5 mph.

 
Posted : September 18, 2009 8:16 pm
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SEC News and Notes
By Brian Edwards

We start this week’s stroll around the SEC with Tennessee’s trip to The Swamp as a monster underdog. As of early Friday afternoon, most betting shops had the Gators installed as 30-point favorites with a total of 53.

When was the last time UT has been this rich of an underdog? Well, never. Ever. In fact, the biggest previous situation as underdogs for the Volunteers was their trip to USC as 18 ½-point puppies in 1981. The Trojans, who were led by Heisman winner Marcus Allen, rolled to an easy 43-7 win in that spot.

Since 1999, Tennessee has only been a double-digit underdog five times. The Vols have thrived in those instances, posting a 5-0 against-the-spread record. They have won three of those games outright, including a 34-32 win at Florida as 18-point underdogs in 2001. UT also beat Miami in ’03 and Georgia in ’04 as a double-digit ‘dog.

Urban Meyer’s team has cruised to easy wins over Charleston Southern (62-3) and Troy (56-6). UF hooked up its backers last week as a 36-point home favorite. Tim Tebow threw four touchdown passes and ran for another.

When these teams met at Neyland Stadium last season, Florida dominated in a 30-6 win as a 7 ½-point road favorite. The Gators have won all four head-to-head meetings against the Vols on Meyer’s watch, including a 59-20 home win in 2007.

Lane Kiffin’s team stroked Western Ky. 63-7 to easily cash tickets as a 31-point favorite in Week 1. But in Week 2, the Vols came crashing back to earth. Jonathan Crompton threw three interceptions and UCLA came into Knoxville and emerged victorious with a 19-15 triumph. Las Vegas Sports Consultants had opened UT at 6 ½, but the number moved all the way up to 11 by Saturday morning.

UT’s power running game was stuffed by the Bruins on a goal-line stand late in the fourth quarter. The Vols can’t blame their defense and new coordinator Monte Kiffin. The elder Kiffin’s defensive unit limited UCLA to just 186 total yards of offense.

Auburn has looked outstanding in its first two games, trouncing La. Tech (37-13) and Mississippi St. (49-24) to easily cash tickets as a double-digit favorite in both spots. Instead of the pedestrian offense that led to Tommy Tuberville’s dismissal in 2008, the Tigers are producing 43 points and 572.5 yards of offense per game.

New offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has done a remarkable job in his second tour of duty in the SEC. Chris Todd has yet to throw an interception and most importantly, the running back combination of Ben Tate and Onterio McCalebb has been racking up yards galore.

Tate is the SEC’s leading rusher to date with 274 yards and one touchdown on 40 carries. McCalebb is second in the SEC in rushing with 262 yards and two touchdowns on 38 totes.

Gene Chizik’s team will be looking to avenge a 34-17 loss in Morgantown last year when it hosts West Virginia at 7:45 p.m. Eastern in ESPN2’s prime-time game Saturday night. LVSC opened Auburn as a 4 ½-point favorite with a total of 51. As of Friday afternoon, most spots had the Tigers at seven with the total adjusted to 53 1/2. Bill Stewart’s team is plus-220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).

WVU opened the season with a lethargic effort, beating Liberty 33-20 in a non-lined encounter. The Mountaineers exacted revenge on East Carolina from a 2008 defeat by knocking off the Pirates last week, 35-20. They shook off an early 10-0 deficit and scored a pair of TDs for the only points of the second half.

Jarrett Brown enjoyed a career night, rushing for 73 yards and passing for 334. He connected on 24-of-31 throws and tossed four touchdown passes. Noel Devine rushed for 80 yards and one touchdown.

Now let’s discuss Georgia at Arkansas in what is a crucial game for both teams. Most books have the Razorbacks as short favorites ranging from 1 ½ to 2 ½. The total is 54.

The Dawgs are coming off a thrilling 41-37 win over South Carolina, although the Gamecocks took the cash as seven-point underdogs. With USC facing a fourth-and-goal situation at UGA’s seven with 22 ticks left, Rennie Curran batted down a Stephen Garcia pass to preserve the Dawgs’ first win of the year.

Mark Richt’s team survived even though it was out-yarded 427-308 and had 10 less first downs (26-16) than the Gamecocks. UGA got a 100-yard kick return from Brandon Boykin in the first quarter and special teams came up big again with a blocked extra point that could’ve tied the game early in the final stanza.

While Georgia has been slugging it out with Oklahoma State – in a 24-10 season-opening defeat – and South Carolina, Arkansas beat up on Missouri St. by a 48-10 count and then enjoyed an open date.

In his debut for Arkansas after sitting out the 2008 campaign, Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett looked sharp, hitting on 17-of-22 passes for 309 yards with one touchdown and zero interceptions.

The Hogs will be without a pair of their top WRs, London Crawford and Lucas Miller. Both recently suffered broken collarbones, although Bobby Petrino and his staff are hoping to get Miller back for next week’s game at Alabama.

Arkansas failed to cover the number in both home ‘chalk’ spots in Petrino’s first season. UGA is 30-5 SU in 35 true road games during Richt’s tenure.

Vanderbilt gave LSU a fight last week before dropping a 23-9 decision as a 14-point underdog. The Commodores will look to bounce back when they welcome Mississippi St. into Music City at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Most books are listing Vandy as a nine-point favorite with a total of 45. The Bulldogs are a healthy plus-300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300).

The ‘Dores haven’t been this heavily favored against an SEC foe since Jay Cutler’s senior year in 2005. That’s when they lost to Kentucky 48-43 as 11-point home favorites.

Bobby Johnson’s team sustained two critical injuries last week. Senior safety Ryan Hamilton, who had 104 tackles and four interceptions in 2008, is now out for the season after tearing his pectoral muscle at LSU. Hamilton made several game-saving plays to preserve a win at Ole Miss last season. His streak of 34 consecutive starts will end Saturday. Also, sophomore offensive tackle James Williams is out for the season with a dislocated ankle.

We touched on South Carolina’s gut-wrenching loss between the hedges last week. The ‘Cocks will try to get back on track when they host Florida Atlantic on Saturday at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. Most spots have USC listed as a 21-point favorite.

If there’s a bright side coming off the UGA loss, it’s that we all finally saw what the hype over Stephen Garcia has been all about. Now he did throw a costly interception and didn’t lead USC into the end zone on its final drive. But more often than not, he was making dynamic plays against the Dawgs.

Garcia had career-highs in just about every statistical category. He completed 31-of-53 passes for 313 yards and a pair of TDs. The third-year sophomore also scrambled for 42 yards.

Kentucky had an off week after giving Miami (OH.) a bagel in its 42-0 season-opening victory. The Wildcats return to action for their home opener against arch-rival Louisville. Most spots have the ‘Cats listed as 13 ½-point favorites with a total of 47 ½.

ESPNU will have the telecast at noon Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--LSU will host UL-Lafayette at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU. The Bayou Bengals are favored by 27 at most books. The Ragin’ Cajuns are coming off a 17-15 upset win over Kansas St. as seven-point home underdogs.

--Tebow’s career touchdown-interception ratio: 72/11

--UGA senior quarterback Joe Cox completed 14-of-21 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns in his team’s win over South Carolina. However, he did throw one interception that USC’s dynamic linebacker Eric Norwood returned 35 yards for a potential game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter. However, as previously mentioned, the ensuing PAT was blocked by UGA, forcing Carolina to have to go for it at crunch time rather than kick a tying field goal.

--FAU’s premier wide receiver Cortez Gent has been suspended for the Owls’ trip to Columbia to face South Carolina. Gent was Rusty Smith’s favorite target in 2008, hauling in 60 receptions for 935 yards and nine touchdowns.

--The Gators have covered the spread in 13 of their last 14 lined games.

--Coaches on the Hot Seat:
1-Dan Hawkins (Colorado)
2-Al Groh (Virginia)
3-Charlie Weis (Notre Dame)
4-Steve Kragthorpe (Louisville)
5-Mark Snyder (Marshall)

vegasinsider.com.

 
Posted : September 18, 2009 10:39 pm
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Arizona (2-0, 0-2 ATS) at Iowa (2-0, 1-0 ATS)

Arizona goes after its fifth straight victory when it travels to Iowa City for a non-conference clash with the Hawkeyes, who have won six in a row.

All four of the Wildcats’ victories during their current streak have come by double digits, including a 19-6 rout of Central Michigan in the season opener Sept. 5 followed by last week’s 34-17 rout of Northern Arizona in a non-lined contest. Arizona outgained both Central Michigan and Northern Arizona by an average of nearly 300 yards per game, including an average rushing edge of 305.5 to 70.5.

After barely squeaking past Division I-AA Northern Iowa 17-16 in its opener, Iowa throttled rival Iowa State 35-3 last week, easily cashing as a 6½-point road chalk. During the Hawkeyes’ six-game winning streak, they’ve had three double-digit blowouts and three other wins by a total of seven points, and they’ve cashed in three straight lined games. QB Richard Stanzi is off to a fine start, completing 58.8 percent of his passes for 439 yards with five TDs and two INTs.

These teams last met in 1998 in Arizona, with the Wildcats rolling to a 35-11 victory as an 11½-point home favorite.

Arizona, which failed to cover in its first lined game of the season against Central Michigan (15-point favorite), is in ATS funks of 1-4 overall, 1-4 on the road, 1-4-1 against the Big Ten, 1-6 in road-openers and 2-5 in non-conference play, but the Wildcats have cashed in 14 of thier last 22 as an underdog (6-1 ATS last seven as a pup).

The Hawkeyes are on pointspread upticks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 5-1 as a favorite, 9-2 when laying 3½ to 10 points at home and 5-0 against teams with a winning record, but they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six against the Pac-10, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite 0-3-1 ATS in their last four the week after beating Iowa State.

For Arizona, the “under” is on runs of 3-0 overall, 3-1 in September and 19-7 when playing on grass, and Iowa carries “under” streaks of 18-7-1 overall, 13-3 in non-conference action, 12-5 as a favorite and 16-5 in September.

ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA and UNDER

(18) Utah (2-0, 0-2 ATS) at Oregon (1-1, 0-2 ATS)

Utah takes the nation’s longest winning streak to Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., for a non-conference battle with the Ducks.

The Utes held off San Jose State 24-14 last Saturday for their 16th consecutive victory, but for the second time this year, they failed to cover the number, coming up short as a 13½-point road favorite. Utah piled up 499 yards of total offense and outrushed the Spartans 251-22, but two fumbles kept the Utes from adding to their point total.

Oregon needed two defensive touchdowns and a missed two-point conversion in the final seconds by Purdue to hold off the Boilermakers 38-36 last week, coming up way short as a 13-point home favorite. The Ducks, who lost 19-8 at Boise State in their opener, were outgained 451-356 and are averaging just 254 total yards through two games while allowing 406 ypg.

Utah upset Oregon 17-13 as a 3½-point home underdog in the most recent meeting in 2003, and the teams have split six meetings since 1991, with the Utes going 4-2 ATS, all as an underdog.

In addition to winning 16 in a row overall, the Utes are on pointspread tears of 25-11-1 in non-conference play, 36-15-2 after a SU win, 7-2 when playing on artificial turf, 25-5-1 as an underdog, 18-5 as a road pup and 13-3-1 when catching between 3½ and 10 points. On the downside, Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Pac-10 and 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven in September.

Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games, its last five in September and its last five in non-conference action, and the Ducks have also failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 as a home favorite of 3½ to 10 points.

Both squads carry a bunch of “over” trends. For Utah, the over is on runs of 11-3-1 overall, 6-2 on the road, 4-1-1 in September and 8-1-1 in non-conference play, while Oregon is on “over” stretches of 5-0-1 at home, 5-2-1 versus non-Pac-10 foes, 17-5-2 in September and 7-1-2 as a favorite.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER

(3) USC (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Washington (1-1 SU and ATS)

A week after going to Ohio State and pulling out a last-minute victory, USC hits the road again, traveling to Seattle for meeting with Washington in the Pac-10 opener for both squads.

True freshman quarterback Matt Barkley led USC on an 86-yard drive late in the fourth quarter at Ohio State last week, with RB Stafon Johnson scoring on a 2-yard TD run with 1:05 remaining to steal an 18-15 victory. The Trojans failed to cover as a seven-point road favorite, but still won their 12th straight game thanks in large part to a defense that held the Buckeyes to just 265 yards (88 rushing).

Barkley suffered a shoulder injury against Ohio State and is expected to sit out today, leaving the QB duties in the hands of sophomore Aaron Corp.

Washington snapped a 15-game losing skid with last Saturday’s 42-23 rout of Idaho, but the Huskies came up just short of covering as a 20-point home favorite when they allowed a meaningless touchdown with 13 seconds left. QB Jake Locker, who missed most of last season with an injury, went 17-for-25 for 253 yards with three TDs and no INTs against Idaho, and the junior has already passed for 574 yards with five TDs and one INT in two games.

This game pits new Huskies coach Steve Sarkisian against his former mentor, USC coach Pete Carroll, under whom Sarkisian served as offensive coordinator before getting the Washington job. With Sarkisian calling the shots last year, the Trojans steamrolled Washington 56-0, covering as a massive 45½-point home favorite. USC had a 485-184 edge in total offense and never let the Huskies to get farther than the USC 45-yard line.

The Trojans have won seven in a row in this rivalry, all as a favorite, but prior to last season, Washington had cashed in three straight meetings (2-0 ATS at home), all as a double-digit underdog. The host is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.

USC is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after a non-cover, but otherwise it is in ATS slumps of 0-4 on the road (all as a favorite), 1-4 in Pac-10 action, 1-4 in conference road games (all last season), 1-4 as a double-digit road chalk and 2-5 on artificial turf. Similarly, despite covering as a 17½-point underdog in a Week 1 home loss to LSU, the Huskies are in ATS funks 26-55-2 overall, 15-36-2 at home, 22-53-2 in Pac-10 action, 4-10-1 after a SU win, 1-8 as an underdog and 1-5 as a home pup.

The Trojans are on “under” streaks of 18-7-1 overall, 21-5-1 in Pac-10 play, 5-1 in September and 22-9-1 as a favorite. On the flip side, the over is on runs of 10-3 at home, 5-0 in September and 12-5 on artificial turf. Finally, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: USC

Kansas State (1-1, 0-1 ATS) at UCLA (2-0 SU and ATS)

UCLA looks to get off to a surprising 3-0 start when it welcomes the Wildcats to the Rose Bowl for a Pac-10 vs. Big 12 showdown.

Legendary coach Bill Snyder is back for his second tour of duty with Kansas State, but the first two games haven’t gone very well, as the Wildcats barely edged Massachusetts 21-17 in a non-lined game then lost at Louisiana Lafayette 17-15 as a 6½-point road favorite a week ago. Despite averaging just 18 ppg, the Wildcats are piling up 392 total yards per contest (210.5 rushing ypg).

UCLA went to Tennessee last week as a 10½-point road underdog and pulled out a 19-15 victory, but lost starting quarterback Kevin Prince to a broken jaw late in the fourth quarter. The Bruins won despite mustering just 186 total yards (85 rushing), but the defense limited the Vols to 208 yards, including 93 passing yards and 2.6 yards per rush, and forced four turnovers. Prince is out for this game and will be replaced by redshirt freshman Richard Brehaut.

K-State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall, 1-4 ATS in its last five in September, 5-16 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games and 1-7 ATS in its last eight when facing teams with a winning record. On the bright side, the Wildcats have covered in five of their last six as a road pup.

The Bruins have cashed in three straight games dating to last year’s regular-season finale against USC, and they’re on further ATS runs of 24-7-1 at the Rose Bowl since early 2004, 23-9-1 in September, 5-1 in non-conference play, 12-4 as a home favorite and 5-2 as a double-digit chalk.

Kansas State is on “over” streaks of 40-17 overall, 19-7 on the highway, 20-7 as an underdog, 13-3 as a road pup, 22-5 after a SU loss and 4-1 in September. Conversely, UCLA carries “under” trends of 5-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 4-1 in September, but the over is 7-1 in the Bruins’ last eight against Big 12 opponents, 7-2 in their last nine in September and 4-1 in their last five non-league contests.

This is the first meeting between these schools.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA

(19) Nebraska (2-0 SU and ATS) at (13) Virginia Tech (1-1 SU and ATS)

On the heels of two impressive home victories, Nebraska hits the highway for the first time in 2009 when it pays a visit to Blacksburg, Va., looking for a little payback against the Hokies.

The Cornhuskers throttled both Florida Atlantic (49-3) and Arkansas State (38-9) the last two weeks, covering easily as a 20-plus-point favorite in both games. Nebraska, which has won six in a row (5-1 ATS) since last November, is averaging 492.5 yards per game (197.5 rushing) and allowing 319 ypg (136.5 rushing). Also, QB Zac Lee is completing 73.7 percent of his passes for 554 yards with six TD passes against just one INT.

Virginia Tech bounced back from a season-opening 34-24 loss to Alabama in Atlanta with last week’s 52-10 rout of Marshall, easily cashing as a 19½-point home favorite. After getting outgained by 343 yards against Alabama (498-155), the Hokies finished with a 605-252 total yardage edge against Marshall.

The Hokies went to Lincoln, Neb., last September and built a 28-10 second-half lead en route to a 35-30 victory as a seven-point road underdog. The Hokies rushed for 206 yards and held Nebraska to 55 yards on the ground.

Although the Cornhuskers have covered in five of six overall and four of five against non-conference opponents, they’re also in pointspread slumps of 4-11 after a SU win, 2-7 as a road ‘dog and 1-5 when catching between 3½ and 10 points as a visitor. The Hokies have covered in five straight against winning teams, but they’re 3-9 ATS in their past 12 non-conference contests, 1-6 ATS in their last seven at home against non-ACC opponents and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 September outings.

The under is on runs of 5-1 for Nebraska in non-conference play, 5-1 for Nebraska in September, 7-2 for Nebraska when playing on grass, 13-4 for Virginia Tech at home and 8-3 for Va-Tech on grass. However, last year’s matchup in Lincoln easily cleared the 47½-point total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Tennessee (1-1 SU and ATS) at (1) Florida (2-0, 1-0 ATS)

Tennessee takes the field in Gainesville today as the biggest underdog in school history when it matches up against Tim Tebow and archrival Florida in the SEC debut for both squads.

The Volunteers’ defense held UCLA to just 186 total yards, but the offense produced just 208 and one touchdown and had four turnovers in last Saturday’s 19-15 loss to the Bruins as a 10½-point home favorite. The Vols, who opened the Lane Kiffin era with a 63-7 rout of Western Kentucky, had a three-game SU and ATS winning streak halted by UCLA. Through two games, Tennessee’s defense is yielding 13 points and 134.5 total yards per game (59.5 rushing ypg).

Florida followed up a 62-3 thumping of Charleston Southern with last week’s 56-6 beat-down of Troy, covering as a 36½-point home favorite. The defending national champions have won 12 games in a row, all by double digits, and they’re 10-0 ATS in lined action during the winning streak. In crushing their first two opponents of 2009, the Gators have averaged 643.5 yards per game (313.5 passing, 330 rushing) and allowed 231 yards per game (147 passing, 84 rushing). Also, Tebow is completing 64.1 percent of his passes for 425 yards and five TDs while adding 72 rushing yards and two scores.

Florida has won four in a row in this rivalry and is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes. After barely edging the Volunteers by five points (16-7) and one point (21-20) in 2005 and 2006, the Gators have embarrassed Tennessee the last two years, rolling 59-20 as a seven-point home favorite in 2007 and 30-6 as a seven-point road chalk last year. Florida has cashed in five of seven against the Vols in The Swamp.

Tennessee is on ATS runs of 5-2 in SEC action, 4-1-1 as a road underdog and 5-0 as a double-digit road pup. Meanwhile, in addition to cashing in 10 straight games, the Gators are on pointspread rolls of 22-6 overall, 7-0 at home, 20-6 as a favorite, 6-0 as a double-digit chalk , 9-2 as a double-digit home favorite, 10-1 when facing SEC rivals and 11-3-1 in SEC openers since 1994.

The Vols sport nothing but “under” trends, including 17-4-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 7-0 as an underdog, 11-1-1 versus winning teams and 21-8-2 in SEC contests. On the flip side, the over for Florida is on streaks of 20-8 overall, 5-1 at home, 5-0 as a double-digit favorite and 5-1 in conference play. Finally, the under is 5-2 in the last seven Florida-Tennessee tussles.

ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and UNDER

(8) California (2-0, 1-0 ATS) at Minnesota (2-0, 1-1 ATS)

California looks to snap a four-game road losing streak when it invades the new TCF Bank Stadium for a non-conference clash with the Golden Gophers, who are trying to start 3-0 for the second straight season.

The Golden Bears cruised to season-opening home victories over Maryland (52-13 as a 21-point favorite) and Eastern Washington (59-7 in a non-lined game), and they’ve now won five in a row dating to last season (4-1 ATS). However, Cal has lost four in a row and eight of nine on the highway, with the lone victory being a 66-3 rout of lowly Washington State in their road opener last season.

QB Kevin Riley (446 passing yards, 5 TDs and no INTs) and RB Jahvid Best (281 rushing yards, 10.4 ypc, 3 TDs; 42 receiving yards, 1 TD) are off to strong starts for Cal, and the defense is yielding just 10 points and 269 yards per game (75 rushing ypg).

The Golden Gophers ended last year on a five-game losing skid, but they’ve come out strong in 2009, outlasting Syracuse 23-20 in overtime as a seven-point road chalk, then rallying to beat Air Force 20-13 as a three-point favorite last week as they opened their new on-campus stadium. Against Air Force, Minnesota rallied from a 10-3 fourth-quarter deficit and scored the winning touchdown on a 51-yard fumble return.

These teams last met in 2006, with Cal hammering the Gophers 42-17 as an 8½-point home favorite. In fact, the Bears have won five straight games against Big Ten opponents (4-1 ATS) by an average of 16 ppg.

Cal has failed to cover in six of its last eight games prior to its Pac-10 opener and is in further ATS slumps of 2-7 on the road, 1-7 as a road chalk and 2-16 as a double-digit favorite. However, the Bears are on positive pointspread runs of 11-4 overall, 5-1 in September and 5-1 as a favorite overall.

Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last seven overall and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a road underdog, but the Gophers have cashed in five of six in September, six of eight as an underdog and five straight when catching double digits.

For Cal, the over is on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-1 against the Big Ten and 9-3 in non-conference action. The over is also 9-3 in Minnesota’s last 12 non-Big Ten games and 6-1 in its last seven as a pup, but the Gophers have stayed low in seven of 10 overall and five of six at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

 
Posted : September 19, 2009 6:28 am
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Tulsa (2-0 SU and ATS) at (12) Oklahoma (1-1, 0-1 ATS)

After a pair of blowout road wins over inferior competition to kickoff the season, Tulsa hits the highway for the third week in a row, this time making the short instate trek to Norman for meeting with the 12th-ranked Sooners.

The Golden Hurricane destroyed Tulane 37-13 as a 14-point road chalk on Sept. 4, then traveled to New Mexico last Saturday and lambasted the Lobos 44-10 as a 17-point favorite. Tulsa has won and covered three in a row, including a 45-13 International Bowl win over Ball State in January. This year, the Hurricane are averaging 450.5 ypg (176 rushing ypg) and allowing 267.5 ypg (47 rushing ypg).

Oklahoma bounced back from a shocking 14-13 loss to BYU as a 22½-point favorite in Dallas with a 64-0 rout of Idaho State in a non-lined home game. After getting outgained 357-265 in the loss to BYU, the Sooners – with QB Sam Bradford out with a shoulder injury – rolled up 564 total yards (278 rushing), while the defense held Idaho State to 44 total net yards (minus-22 rushing). Landry Jones, subbing for Bradford, went 18-for-32 for 286 yards with three TDs and one INT.

The Sooners have won all four meetings with Tulsa this decade (2-1-1 ATS), all under coach Bob Stoops, and those victories have come by the combined score of 188-36, including a pair of shutouts in 2001 and 2002. In the most recent battle in 2007 at Tulsa, Oklahoma cruised 62-21 as a 23-point road chalk. The Sooners are 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.

The Golden Hurricane, who started out 10-0 last season, are on ATS runs of 11-5 overall, 5-1 outside of Conference USA, 4-0 in September and 5-0 as a road ‘dog of more than 10 points. However, they’re 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight against Big 12 opponents and 1-4 ATS in their last five as an underdog of any price.

Despite the upset loss to BYU, Oklahoma is still on pointspread surges of 6-2 overall in lined games, 9-4 in non-conference action, 9-2 in September, 6-1 as a favorite and 8-2 as a double-digit favorite.

The under is 4-0 in Tulsa’s last four games and 4-1 in its last five as visiting ‘dog, but OU carries “over” trends of 12-3 overall, 10-3 in non-league contests and 8-2 as a favorite.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA

Florida State (1-1, 0-1 ATS) at (7) BYU (2-0 SU and ATS)

Boasting its highest ranking since the end of the 1996 season, BYU goes after its 19th consecutive win at LaVell Edwards Stadium as it hosts Bobby Bowden and Florida State.

The Seminoles barely avoided one of their worst losses in decades last week, scoring 12 points in the final 35 seconds to turn a 9-7 loss to Division I-AA Jacksonville State into a misleading 19-9 victory in a non-lined home game. Florida State, which suffered a 38-34 last-second home loss to Miami, Fla., in its season opener, gained 400 yards against Jacksonville State, but lost three fumbles and had just one touchdown until Ty Jones scored on a 1-yard run with 35 seconds to play. The Seminoles then added a 33-yard fumble recovery for a score to pad their margin of victory.

A week after shocking second-ranked Oklahoma 14-13 as a 22½-point underdog in Dallas, BYU came back last week and displayed no signs of a letdown, pummeling Tulane 54-3 and easily covering as an 18½-point road favorite. The Cougars led just 3-0 after the first quarter and 6-0 at the midway point of the second before exploding, and they finished with 527 yards of offense (206 rushing) and held Tulane to just 150 (25 rushing on 24 carries).

BYU quarterback Max Hall is making an early run at the Heisman Trophy, as he’s completed 71.4 percent of his throws for 638 yards, four TDs and three INTs. Last week versus Tulane, he went 24-for-32 for 309 yards, two TDs and one INT.

These teams have played twice since 1991 – both in Provo, Utah – and Florida State scored easy road wins both times (44-28 as a 15-point chalk in 1991; 29-3 as a 27½-point favorite in 2000).

The Seminoles are on ATS runs of 7-3-2 as an underdog (6-2-2 as a road pup), 5-1-1 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points and 6-1-1 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Cougars’ 2-0 ATS start this season follows a 1-7 ATS nosedive that closed out the 2008 campaign. BYU has cashed in four straight in September, but although it has won 18 consecutive home games, it failed to cover in its final three at LaVell Edwards Stadium last year (all as a 20-plus-point favorite).

Florida State has topped the total in four straight non-league games, four straight as an underdog and six of seven as a road pup. The over is also 5-2 in BYU’s last seven overall, but the Cougars have stayed low in eight of 11 in Provo and four of five against teams from the ACC.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

(23) Georgia (1-1, 0-2 ATS) at Arkansas (1-0, 0-0 ATS)

The Bulldogs will try to make it five in a row over Arkansas when they travel to Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark., for this SEC showdown.

After opening the season with a 24-10 loss at Oklahoma State as a 5½-point underdog, Mark Richt’s Bulldogs avoided an 0-2 start with a 41-37 victory over South Carolina on Saturday, coming up short as a seven-point favorite in what all experts thought would be a defensive struggle. Georgia’s defense gave up 427 yards of offense on Saturday but held on the final play of the game to outlast South Carolina. QB Joe Cox was 17-of-24 for 201 yards, two TDs and an INT.

Arkansas crushed Missouri State 49-10 in a non-lined contest back on Sept. 5, getting 447 passing yards, including 309 yards and a TD from Michigan transfer Ryan Mallet. Coach Bobby Petrino’s squad was idle last weekend after putting up 591 yards of total offense against Missouri State, its highest total in two years.

Georgia hasn’t lost to Arkansas since 1993 and the Bulldogs are 8-1 SU (5-4 ATS) against the Razorbacks dating to 1987. They’ve also won three in a row in Fayetteville where the Razorbacks have lost eight of their last 10 to ranked SEC squads.

The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a road pup and 4-2 ATS in their last six as a ‘dog anywhere, but they are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four SEC contests. Arkansas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven overall, but otherwise is on ATS slides of 2-9 in September and 1-4 coming off a SU victory.

Georgia has stayed under the number is 24 of 33 September games, but it is on “over” streaks of 4-1 in SEC play and 5-1 as an underdog. It’s been mostly “overs” for Arkansas, including 9-4 at home, 7-3 in SEC action, 7-3 with conference games and 8-0 in September. Finally, the “under” is 4-1 in the last five series clashes between these two.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA

Texas Tech (2-0, 1-0 ATS) at (2) Texas (2-0, 0-2 ATS)

Texas Tech heads to Texas Memorial Stadium to face the Longhorns in not only the Big 12 opener for both sides, but a rematch of arguably the best college football game of 2008.

Last year, Texas scored a touchdown with 1:29 left to take a 33-32 lead, only to see the defense allow QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree hook up for the college football play of the year on a 28-yard TD pass with one second left to give Texas Tech a 39-33 win and outright upset as 3½-point home ‘dogs. The loss kept the Longhorns out of the Big 12 title game and eventually out of the BCS championship game.

Tech’s victory last year snapped a five-game SU winning streak in this rivalry for the Longhorns (3-2 ATS). The home team is on a four-game ATS run in this series, with the ‘dog cashing in five of the last seven meetings.

Texas Tech has opened the season with two easy victories, beating North Dakota 38-13 in an unlined season opener, then crushing Rice 55-10 as a 27-point favorite last weekend. QB Taylor Potts has picked up where the record-setting Harrell left off, throwing for 861 yards, nine TDs and three INTs.

The Longhorns destroyed the Louisiana-Monroe 59-20 in their opener, failing to cover as 41½-point favorites. Last week they went to Wyoming and grabbed a 41-10 victory, but again came up short as a whopping 31½-point road chalk. QB Colt McCoy, who threw for 294 yards and two TDs against the Red Raiders a year ago, has thrown for 654 yards, five TDs and two INTs in the first two games

Texas Tech is 5-2-1 ATS in September, but otherwise on negative ATS runs of 0-4 as a road underdog, 0-5 on grass and 3-8-1 ATS following a spread-cover. Texas has had trouble covering a number lately, going 2-6 ATS in its last eight overall and 1-4 ATS in its last five at home (all as a favorite).

The Red Raiders are riding several “over” streaks, including 7-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 27-8 after an ATS win and 5-0 against teams with a winning record. The Longhorns have topped the total in eight of their last 11 conference games, but they are on “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 after a straight-up win and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. Finally, in this rivalry, the “over” is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER

(17) Cincinnati (2-0, 1-0 ATS) at Oregon State (2-0, 0-1 ATS)

The high-scoring Bearcats take their show on the road for a non-conference matchup with Oregon State at Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Ore.

Cincinnati has come out of the gate with a pair of dominating efforts, crushing Big East rival Rutgers 47-15 as a 4½-point road ‘dog, then returning home to stomp Southeast Missouri State 70-3 in a non-lined outing, scoring the third-most points in school history.

Bearcats’ QB Tony Pike has completed 77.2 percent of his throws this season for 591 yards, six TDs and just one INT. Coach Brian Kelly has also got a game-breaker at WR in Mardy Gilyard who has 14 catches for 200 yards and three TDs, plus a punt return for a score.

After opening with an easy 34-7 win over Portland State in an non-lined contest, Oregon State went to Las Vegas a week ago and edged UNLV 23-21, falling short as a 6½-point chalk. Mike Riley’s offense drove the ball down the field 64 yards in 12 plays with two minutes left to set up the game-winning 33-yard field goal with seven seconds left.

RB Jacquizz Rodgers has rushed for 269 yards and four TDs this season after finishing second in the Pac-10 last season with 1,253 yards on the ground. The Beavers have won 26 straight non-conference home games since 1996 and they have beaten 15 of the past 17 ranked visitors to come in to Reser Stadium (including a stunning win over No. 1 USC last year).

Back in 2007, Oregon State committed seven turnovers in a 34-3 loss to the Bearcats, with Cincinnati cashing as a three-point home ‘dog.

The Bearcats are on ATS runs of 9-2 in September games, 8-3-1 on the road against a team with a winning home mark and 14-6-1 against teams with a winning record. However, Cincy is just 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 as a road chalk and 2-5 ATS in its last seven in non-conference action. Oregon State struggles in September at just 5-16-1 ATS in its last 22, but otherwise the Beavers are on pointspread streaks of 16-5 overall, 40-19-1 at home, 5-1 as an underdog and 9-2 after a SU victory.

Cincinnati has topped the total in five of seven as a favorite, eight of 11 as a road chalk, seven of eight in September and five straight on the road. On the flip side, Oregon State is on “under” runs of 5-2 overall, 8-3 in September, 9-3 in non-conference action and 5-2 as a home pup.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Gametimepicks.com

 
Posted : September 19, 2009 6:29 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Going For Eight
By SportsPic

Riding the momentum of a thrilling 18-15 victory at Ohio State last Saturday night the Trojans begin their quest for an eighth consecutive Pac-10 title Saturday when they visit Washington Huskies. Facing a squad it has defeated seven straight times including a 56-0 destruction last year, one that hasn't won a Pac-10 encounter in ten attempts (0-10 ATS) and one managing just two wins the past two years in conference play (3-15 ATS) Trojans look to have an easy one on the slate. Little doubt the more talented Trojans prevail with or without freshman QB Matt Barkley (bruised shoulder) but covering the expected 20-point spot against a much improved Huskie squad which played LSU extremely tough in it's opener could prove troublesome. Should be closer than most expect, keep in mind Trojans were feeling good after beating Ohio State last year only to fall flat in their conference opener at Oregon State getting nipped 27-21 as -24 point road favorites. Trends of interest: Washington is 3-1 ATS last four meetings with USC, Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a road favorite.

 
Posted : September 19, 2009 7:20 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Tips and Trends

Florida State at BYU

Florida State: Perhaps Florida State isn’t off to just a slow start at 1-1. After getting two scores in the final 35 seconds to pull out a 19-9 victory last week against Jacksonville (Ala.) State, a Football Championship Subdivision school, Florida State just may not be that good. The Seminoles still have outstanding athletes, but they’ve allowed 599 passing yards in losing to Miami and beating Jacksonville State, both of which were home contests. Florida State is 1-6 against the spread as a non-conference road ‘dog of more than three points and 4-10 against the number following two consecutive home games. This is just the second time Bobby Bowden’s Seminoles are playing west of Tallahassee in five years. The Seminoles don’t have a rusher who has gained more than 100 yards yet and quarterback Christian Ponder has thrown just two touchdown passes with one interception.

The Over is 10-3 the past 13 times Florida State has been on the road against a team with a winning home record.

The Seminoles are 6-1-1 ATS following a non-cover.

Key Injuries - Defensive tackle Justin Mincey (knee) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 22

BYU (-8, O/U 54): The seven-ranked Cougars have won their last 18 games at LaVell Edwards Stadium with only one game decided by less than seven points. The Cougars won by an average of 30.2 points in six home games last year. The Cougars held four of those foes to 12 points or less. BYU has won seven in a row versus non-conference opponents. BYU’s defense has looked strong again this season holding Oklahoma to 265 yards and giving up just 162 yards last Saturday to Tulane in a 54-3 road win. The Cougars piled up 527 yards of offense and didn’t punt in routing the Green Wave. Quarterback Max Hall is making a Heisman Trophy bid completing better than 71 percent of his passes for 638 yards and four touchdowns. A concern is if the Cougars can protect Hall, who was sacked four times by Oklahoma. BYU has four new offensive line starters.

BYU is 2-5 ATS as a favorite.
The Over is 28-13-1 the past 42 times BYU had a cover the previous week.

Key Injuries - Safety Scott Johnson (concussion) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Texas Tech at Texas

Texas Tech: This is supposed to be a rebuilding year for Texas Tech after losing star wide receiver Michael Crabtree and quarterback Graham Harrell. However, the Red Raiders are 2-0 with wins over North Dakota (38-13) and Rice (55-10). Taylor Potts has already thrown for 861 yards and nine touchdowns, although he has been picked off three times. Texas Tech has had a good pass rush and its offensive line has yielded just one sack. Until beating Kansas last year, Texas Tech was 0-6 against the spread when facing ranked teams on the road with five of the losses coming by double-digits. The over has cashed in seven of Texas Tech’s last eight board games. The over also is 27-8 the past 35 times the Red Raiders covered a spread during their previous game. The over is 5-1 in Texas Tech’s last six Big 12 Conference matchups.

Texas Tech is 3-8 ATS following a point spread cover.

Key Injuries - None

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Texas (-18, O/U 66): This is one of the biggest revenge games of the season after Texas Tech beat the Longhorns, 39-33, in Lubbock last year scoring a touchdown with one second left on a pass to Michael Crabtree. That was Texas’ only loss and ended up costing the Longhorns a chance to play for the Big 12 title and BCS championship game. The Longhorns were ranked No. 1 at the time. This time around they’re at home and rated No. 2. Texas has beaten UL Monroe (59-20) and Wyoming (41-10), but failed to cover in either game despite the lopsided victories. Texas has failed to cover in six of the last eight games it has been favored. The Longhorns’ ground attack has picked up in support of star quarterback Colt McCoy. Vondrell McGee and Tre Newton are each averaging 100 yards on the ground. McCoy has thrown for 654 yards and five touchdowns.

The Longhorns have gone Over in 8 of their last 11 Big 12 games.
The Over has cashed in 6 of the past seven games between the two schools.

Key Injuries - Linebacker Jared Norton (ankle) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 42 (Side of the Day)

 
Posted : September 19, 2009 11:09 am
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