NCAAF News and Notes Saturday 9/26

Games to Watch - Week 4
By Chris David

Week 4

Skinny

All eyes will be on the ACC this Saturday when No. 9 Miami, Fl. (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) visits No. 11 Virginia Tech (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) in a huge conference battle. After holding off Florida State (38-34) on Labor Day and then defeating Georgia Tech (33-17) last Thursday, the Hurricanes have been put back on the map. A large part of Miami's success is attributed to sophomore QB Jacory Harris (656 yards, 5 TDs), who's spread the ball to 12 different players this year. Even though Miami's defense held the Yellow Jackets to 228 yards, it's tough to gauge how good this unit is just yet. Virginia Tech might not be a good barometer either, considering its offense barely beat Nebraska 16-15 last week in Blacksburg. QB Tyrod Taylor (44.4%, 192 yards) looked horrible except for two plays, one being an 81-yard mistake by the Cornhuskers' defense and the other the game-winning TD to win the game. The Hokies' defense only gave up 15 points but the run defense (200 YPG) has been hit harder than expected this year. In Week 1, Alabama pounded V-Tech for 498 yards, including 268 on the ground. It seems as if Miami's offense is geared toward Harris and his arm, but Randy Shannon might want to establish the run if he wants to escape with a road victory.

Gambling Notes

A handful of offshore outfits opened this game as a pick 'em but Miami was quickly steamed up to a three-point road favorite by the sharps. The Hurricanes are definitely the public darlings right now and the victory over FSU is getting more credibility now after the Seminoles thrashed BYU on the road last weekend. Miami won last year's battle 16-14 between the two teams, but Virginia Tech had won four of the previous five. The Hokies have also gone 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, plus total players should note the 'under' is on a 5-1 run in this series. Frank Beamer and V-Tech don't lose often in Blacksburg, especially not as underdogs either. In the last three instances, the Hokies are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, and two of the covers came against the 'Canes. Randy Shannon is 2-2 both SU and ATS as a road favorite in his two years at Miami. The look-ahead angle could be in play for Miami, since Oklahoma will be invading South Beach next Saturday. Was the Hurricanes' win over G-Tech that impressive? Was Miami lucky to beat FSU on the road? Is V-Tech overrated this year? Those questions will be answered for gamblers soon enough.

California at Oregon (ABC-Regional, 3:30 p.m.)

Skinny

Is this the year for head coach Jeff Tedford and California (3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) to shine on the national stage? The Golden Bears have looked great so far but the next two weeks will be very telling for the school. Running back Jahvid Best (412 yards, 9 TDs) appears to be an early favorite for the Heisman, but his chances will be measured on his team's success. Best and company head to Oregon (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) this week before a big home battle next Saturday against USC. The Golden Bears offense is averaging a conference-best 488 YPG and the attack is very balanced behind a very efficient gunslinger in Kevin Riley (65%, 698 yards, 5 TDs). After getting humbled by Boise State 19-8 in Week 1, Oregon has bounced back with a pair of victories at home, including a 31-24 win over then No. 18 Utah last Saturday. The Ducks almost blew leads of 14 and 18 points due to four turnovers and some untimely penalties. Plus, QB Jeremiah Masoli (45.3%, 379 yards) looked shaky for the Oregon offense, completing just 4-of-16 passes. Masoli has had more success running the football this year, racking up 145 yards and four touchdowns. Cal's secondary is one of the better units in football and most would expect Tedford to put eight in the box against a Ducks attack that is ranked 116th in passing offense with zero touchdowns in three games.

Gambling Notes

California has owned this series lately, winning and covering three straight against Oregon. In 2008, the Golden Bears dropped the Ducks 26-16 as 2 ½-point home favorites. The game was played in a rainstorm and the field was a complete mess due to the awful weather. Cal opened as a seven-point road favorite and most sportsbooks moved the number down to 6. Despite beating Minnesota last week on the road, Jeff Tedford and the Bears were just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS outside of Berkeley last year. Catching points in Eugene for the Ducks doesn't happen often, the last time coming in 2005 when USC (-21) steamrolled Oregon 45-21. Lastly, turnovers are impossible to handicap but certain tendencies make you worry about Oregon, who's coughed up the ball eight times this season. Meanwhile, Cal has only turned it over once and they've notched seven takeaways. Will the Golden Bears get caught looking ahead to the Trojans, who look ripe for the taking?

Other Games to Watch

South Florida at Florida State

Not only were the Seminoles playing their third game in 12 days, they were playing on the road in a hostile setting against what was thought to be a quality BYU club. Bobby Bowden's team stepped up and thrashed the Cougars 54-28 in wire-to-wire fashion. Now they catch an unbeaten South Florida team, which just lost its starting quarterback Matt Grothe (knee) for the season. B.J. Daniels, a redshirt freshman, will make us find out if USF's success was a system or Grothe.

Indiana at Michigan

Indiana is 3-0 and we're talking football in Bloomington, not basketball. The Hoosiers will find out how good they are on Saturday when they battle Michigan in the Big House, where they've lost 15 straight. The Wolverines are laying three touchdowns in their homecoming battle at most outfits. On deck for Michigan is its intrastate rival Michigan State. Look ahead?

Southern Miss at Kansas

If you don't know who Damion Fletcher is, then tune into this game this weekend. The Southern Miss running back is a beast and could very well help the Golden Eagles come out of Lawrence with a win. It will take more than Fletcher's skills, in particular the Southern Miss defense. Last week, the unit was torched by UVA and now they face Kansas and the aerial attack of Todd Reesing.

North Carolina at Georgia Tech

Is Butch Davis and North Carolina overrated? The Tar Heels haven't exactly looked like a powerhouse in wins over UConn (12-10) and ECU (31-17). The Yellow Jackets were humbled last Thursday to Miami and their top running back is banged up as well. Last year, UNC won 28-7 in Chapel Hill but it was outgained (423-314). What was the difference? Three big turnovers…

TCU at Clemson

The Mountain West Conference took it on the chin last week as both BYU and Utah lost key non-conference battles. The Horned Frogs are still considered the class of the conference and already beat an ACC school (UVA, 30-14) on the road this year. This one could be ugly, considering Clemson's offense isn't clicking, evidenced by six field goals against Boston College.

Pittsburgh at N.C. State

The Panthers continue their four-game set against non-conference opponents and most would agree that the Wolfpack are their toughest test to date. Pittsburgh has a steady QB in Bill Stull (540 yards, 6 TDs) and a dynamic RB Dion Lewis (398 yards, 5 TDs) too. After putting up 3 points against South Carolina, N.C. State posted 65 and 45 against a pair of Subdivision teams. QB Russell Wilson tossed 8 TDs in the wins and appears to have gotten his confidence back.

Florida at Kentucky

After defeating Tennessee 23-13 last week, Florida didn't earn a lot of respect from its faithful or gamblers either. The Gators will look to win their 23rd straight game in a row against Kentucky. The Wildcats have a few playmakers on their squad but back-to-back games against Florida and then Alabama spell trouble for Rich Brooks' team.

Iowa at Penn State

Gamblers backing Penn State (0-3 ATS) haven't been treated nicely at the counter this year. Iowa upset Penn State 24-23 last year at home, which crushed the Nittany Lions' national championship hopes. It should be crazy on Saturday but Joe Paterno needs his offense to catch up with the defense.

Arizona State at Georgia

The Bulldogs dominated the Sun Devils 27-10 last year with a balanced attack (461 yards) through the air and ground. Georgia QB Joe Cox (738 yards, 8 TDs) has led the offense to 41 and 52 points in the team's last two wins but the defense has also surrendered 78 points. ASU hasn't played anybody yet, but UGA could be looking ahead to its battle against LSU next Saturday.

Texas Tech at Houston

The Red Raiders looked decent in their 34-24 road loss to Texas last week but they better get ready for another team in the Lone Star State that is on the rise. Houston has had extra time to prepare for this game and a win here would make a strong case for the Cougars to run the table and perhaps be the first CUSA team to garner an at-large BCS berth.

vegasinsider.com

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 4 KEYS
By Evan Altemus

Each week the college football schedule looks overwhelming considering the amount of plays available to bet on each week. One of the best ways to breakdown the games are to organize the card into different categories. Home underdogs are usually a good place to start, so let's take a look which teams playing at home are getting points this week.

South Carolina +3 - The Gamecocks have been playing better, and Ole Miss came into this season rated highly based on last year's results.

Nevada +7.5 - This game is very interesting, as the Wolfpack have really struggled this year and there's not a better way to rebound than to beat a good BCS conference team in a home nationally televised primetime game. However, this team really looked outclassed against Notre Dame and even Colorado State.

Mississippi State +12.5 - Some sharp bettors jumped all over Mississippi State +14 early in the week which drove this line down. If want to bet the Bulldogs against LSU then you should probably wait until kickoff. New head coach Dan Mullen seems to have this team playing much better in previous years, especially on offense.

Wyoming +5 - The Cowboys played Texas very well at home two weeks ago, while UNLV is coming off of a close home win against Hawaii. I'm not sure if I would trust this soft Rebels team to cover a spread of more than a field goal in Laramie, especially in a place that has traditionally been tough for visitors.

Virginia Tech +3 - This spread is a ridiculous over adjustment based on the results of the last few weeks. The Hokies never win pretty, especially not last week over Nebraska. Meanwhile, everyone saw Miami win two nationally televised games against Florida State and Georgia Tech. The Hurricanes are still a young team, and this will be their toughest road test so far this year.

Bowling Green +16.5 - The Falcons are getting a great deal of points here against a tough Boise State team. This is their second straight road game, as they are coming off of a blowout road win at Fresno State. The Broncos will also be without their best running back for this game due to injury. Bowling Green can put points on the board, and MAC teams have traditionally really got up for these home games against better non-conference teams. Remember what happened just a few weeks ago between Colorado and Toledo?

Purdue +7 - Notre Dame is in somewhat of a tough spot here, as they are coming off of two consecutive physically and emotionally draining games against Michigan and Michigan State. However, last week's game could be costly, as they lost their star receiver Michael Floyd for the year with a broken collarbone. In addition, Jimmy Clausen suffered a foot injury, and he was clearly not playing as well in the 2nd half as a result.

Kentucky +21.5 - This game is an obvious letdown spot for Florida, as they are coming off of last week's emotionally draining win against Tennessee. Urban Meyer is still talking about last week's game in the media this week. This is a great spot to go against Florida, as they are going on the road to supposedly lowly Kentucky while several Gators are dealing with flu symptoms. The Wildcats are also in a great revenge situation here after getting absolutely destroyed by Florida last year.

Another one of the biggest things I look for is big games from the previous week as well as in the next week as potential look ahead spots for some teams. Some games that had a great deal of emotion from last week for one or both teams are:

Georgia Tech/Miami, Louisville/Kentucky, Northern Illinois/Purdue, Tennessee/Florida, Nebraska/Virginia Tech, Michigan State/Notre Dame, USC/Washington, and Texas Tech/Texas.

Also some potential look ahead games for next week are LSU/Georgia, Michigan/Michigan State, Oklahoma/Miami, Washington/Notre Dame, USC/California.

Saturday's games

Top games

Underdog covered five of last six Wake Forest-Boston College games, as Deacons lost last two visits here, 38-28/35-30. Matt Ryan's senior year was only time favorite covered in series. Last week, BC was 5-21/25 as passers at rainy Clemson- they're struggling at QB. Since '06, Eagles are 3-6 in the game following a loss. Wake is 16-10 as road dog under Grobe.

Underdog covered five of last seven Minnesota-Northwestern games, as Wildcats won last two meetings, 24-17/49-48; both teams are coming off first loss of season. Gophers are 16-20 after loss since '02; Wildcats are 21-10 since '03, but just 2-7 in last nine tries as home favorite. Last two Northwestern games were both decided by a FG. Gophers are 6-2 as a road underdog under Brewster.

Home side won last four Michigan State-Wisconsin games; Spartans lost last two visits here, 37-34/56-21. State lost last two games by combined total of five points- they lost tough game at Notre Dame, with soph QB Cousins throwing horrific INT deep in Irish territory as Spartans drove for winning score- they're 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as a road dog. Badgers are 1-4 in last five as a home favorite.

With Utah, BYU losing last week, hopes of Mountain West to keep up as BCS busters lies with TCU squad that already won 30-14 at Virginia of ACC (-12). Horned Frogs are 4-7-1 as road dog since '04. Clemson is off decisive win over ACC rival Boston College; Tigers are 4-2 as home favorite under Swinney, 2-0 this year. TCU is 20-12-3 vs spread off a win the last 4+ seasons.

Arkansas is 9-4 as road dog since '05; they gave up 530 yards in a wild 52-41 home loss to Dawgs last week- Georgia averaged 14.4 yds/pass attempt. Alabama is averaging 42.7 ppg in McElroy's first three college games, throwing for 230+ yards in all three games; Crimson Tide ran ball for 328 yards in 49-14 mauling of Hogs LY (-9). Bama is 7-18 vs spread as a home favorite since '05, 5-8 under Saban.

Florida had flu issues this week after 23-13 win over Tennessee; Gators are 6-1 as road favorites last two seasons. Kentucky is 8-4 as home dog since '04; they got waxed 63-5 in Gainesville LY, getting first two punts blocked. Florida won last 12 series games (2-5 vs spread in last seven)- they've won six in row, winning last three by 8-21-3 points. Wildcats scored 73 points in winning first two games (beat rival Lousville 31-27).

Georgia (-7) went to desert LY, beat Arizona State 27-10; Dawgs gave up 78 points in last two games, but won both- they play LSU next week so letdown possible here. Dawgs covered one of last six as a home fave. Arizona State beat up on two stiffs at home; they're 7-18-1 as road dog since 2001. Nine of last 11 Arizona State road games stayed under total.

Cal won last three games vs Oregon by 10-7-21 points; and Ducks were ranked going into all three games; Bears are just 2-6 in last eight games as road favorite. Oregon is home dog for just second time since '03, losing 45-13 to USC in last such role ('05, +21)- they beat Purdue, Utah in last two games after disaster in Boise. Cal has USC coming to Berkeley next week, has to avoid lookahead here.

Washington hits road off huge upset last week; they're 1-7 vs spread in last eight games as road dog. Underdog covered five of their last seven games with Stanford, which is 4-1 as home favorite under Harbaugh, but 3-7 vs spread in game after their last 10 wins. Cardinal had 244 rushing yards in LY's win; USC had 250 in Seattle last week, but Washington is finding ways to succeed under new coach Sarkisian.

Underdog covered six of last eight Miami-Va Tech games; 'canes are 2-4 in last six visits to Blacksburg, and scored 16 or less points in five of six series games, but Harris-led offense scored 71 points in first two games this year, ACC wins over Seminoles, Ga Tech. Tech gutted out a 16-15 home win vs Nebraska last week; they're 4-8-1 vs spread in last 13 home games. Miami is 41-59/656 passing behind Heisman hopeful Harris.

Purdue lost at home to Northern Illinois last week; they've given up 97 points in three games, bad news vs Notre Dame squad that is missing its best WR Floyd (collarbone) but has scored 34 ppg in its first three tilts, narrowly beating Spartans at home last week. Last six series games were all won by 13+ points, with Notre Dame winning three of last four. Irish are 4-3-1 as road favorite under Weis.

Iowa ruined Penn State's national title hopes LY with a dramatic 24-23 win; it was Ferentz' sixth win in last seven meetings with JoePa, who is 0-3 as a home favorite this year, beating three stiffs by 24-21-25 points. Iowa is 15-11-1 as road dog this decade; they beat Iowa State, Arizona in last two games after lucking out vs Northern Iowa in opener. Hawkeyes covered four of their last five road games.

Houston had last week off after shocking Oklahoma State in Stillwater; Cougars are 10-6 vs spread at home last three years. Texas Tech showed surprising defense in 34-24 loss at Texas last week, outgaining Horns by 41 yards, but three turnovers, 14 penalties hurt them in Potts' first road start. Tech is 7-5 vs spread in last dozen road games. Total of 73 tells us this figures to be a shootout- check weather before playing over.

Oregon State won nine of last ten games vs Arizona, taking five of six in Corvallis, with last four wins here all by 14+ points. Wildcats are 12-8 vs spread in game after their last 20 losses, State is 8-3 in game after its last 11 setbacks. Arizona is on road second week in row after 27-17 loss at Iowa last week- they were just 10-26 passing, could change QBs here.

Other games

-- Illinois won three of last four visits to Ohio State; Illini covered six of last seven games as road dog, Buckeyes are 4-8 as home fave since '07.

-- Indiana is 13-29 vs spread as road dog, 25-47 in conference games this decade. Michigan covered four of its last five games with the Hoosiers.

-- Temple is 2-3 as home favorite since '02; they're 0-3 vs Buffalo, losing by average score of 27-13. Bulls are 15-6 as road underdog with Gill.

-- Maryland covered six of last nine as home dog, but is 7-13 vs spread in last 20 non-league games. Rutgers is 10-6 vs spread on road the last three years.

-- Bowling Green is home dog for first time since 2002; they covered five of last seven non-MAC games. Boise State is 5-1 in last six as road fave.

-- Tennessee is 8-4-1 vs spread as home favorite since '07; they're in a Florida/Auburn sandwich here. Ohio U is 7-5-1 as a road dog since '06.

-- East Carolina won its last three games vs Central Florida by 3-14-13 points; ECU is 8-4 as home favorite since '06. UCF is 11-7 as a road dog since 2006.

-- Cincinnati covered one of last eight when laying 8+ points. Fresno St is 5-2 vs spread in last seven games as road underdog- they gave up 85 points in losing last two games, at Wisconsin, at home to Boise State.

-- Akron threw its QB off the team this week, so they're untouchable. Central Michigan covered seven of its last nine tries as a home favorite.

-- LSU won last nine games vs Miss State by average of 41-12. covering last five visits to Starkville; Tigers are 3-5-1 in last nine as road favorite. Bulldogs covered eight of last 25 as a home underdog.

-- Iowa State covered one of last five as home favorite, but is 19-12 vs spread outside of Big 12. Army is 5-1 vs spread in last six as road dog.

-- Home side won last four Marshall-Memphis games; Tigers switched QBs last week to Bass, a better passer (24-32/316 last week). Tigers covered four of last 12 as a home favorite.

-- Texas A&M is 11-9 as home favorite since '04, but 9-19 vs spread in last 28 non-league games- they play Arkansas in JerryDome next week. UAB lost the last two weeks, giving up 62 points to SMU, Troy.

-- Kansas covered eight of last 10 when laying double digits, but they've had lot of distractions this week, including scuffles with basketball team. Southern Miss covered two of last nine as a road underdog.

-- Air Force beat San Diego State last two years, 35-10/55-23; Aztecs State covered six of last 18 as road dog. Air Force covered six of its last seven as home favorite, but has rivalry game with Navy on deck.

-- Vanderbilt (-8) beat Rice 38-21 LY, but covered just one of four as a road favorite since '02. Owls covered seven of last eight as a home dog.

-- Auburn scored 42.3 ppg in winning first three games; defense scored a TD last two weeks- are they looking ahead to Tennessee next week? Ball State lost its first three games, scoring total of 43 points.

-- Underdog covered four of last five UNLV-Wyoming games, as Rebels lost last two trips to Laramie, 29-24/42-17. Cowboys were outscored in last two weeks 65-10, 35-0 in second half.

-- South Florida lost 3-year starting QB to injury last week; freshman is new starter. Bulls are 6-3 as road dog since '05. This is long-awaited first meeting with Florida State for USF. Seminoles are 7-14 as home favorite.

-- Georgia Tech won nine of last 11 games vs North Carolina, but Heels covered last five; Heels lost last five visits to Tech by 2-6-17-7-7 points. Tech is 4-2 as home favorite under Johnson.

-- Northern Illinois (+12) won at Purdue last week, but they're 1-9 in last 10 tries as home favorite. Idaho is 8-12 as a road underdog since 2006.

-- BYU won last five games vs Colorado State by average score of 35-19. Cougars are 13-9 vs spread after a loss since '03. Rams are 3-0 this year, but 1-3 as road dog under Fairchild.

-- NC State is 7-5 vs spread in last 12 home games, but 4-7 vs spread in last 11 non-league games. Pitt is 10-6 vs spread out of Big East since '06. Wolfpack covered four of last 19 as a home favorite.

-- Miami O was outscored 138-26 in its first three games, 69-0 in first half; is the new coach overmatched? Miami lost two of last three to the Golden Flashes, after winning eight of previous nine.

-- Utah had long win streak ended at Oregon last week; they're 7-6-1 in last 14 games as home favorite. Louisville lost rivalry game at Kentucky last week; they're 10-6 as road underdogs this decade.

-- UTEP is 16-8 vs spread in its last 24 games as road dog. Texas won a tough Big 12 game last week, they beat Miners 42-13 in El Paso LY, in game where yardage was even. Texas is 13-7 vs spread out of Big 12.

-- New Mexico lost its first three games by 35-34-24 points; they have a -8 turnover ratio, have been outscored 61-12 in first half of games. Lobos won six in a row in this rivalry, are 14-1 in last 15 series games here.

-- USC is banged up after loss in Seattle; they're 10-3 vs spread after loss under Pete Carroll. Washington State is 7-13 vs spread in last 20 games as road dog.

-- Underdog is 5-0 vs spread in UL-Monroe-FAU games, with dog 4-1 SU; ULM won last three visits here by 3-7-4 points. Seven of last nine Florida Atlantic home games went over the total.

-- Nebraska had painful loss at Virginia Tech last week, completing just 11-30 passes; they've already won games vs Sun Belt foes this year, by 49-3/38-9 scores. UL-Lafayette is 12-9 in last 21 games as road dog.

-- Western Kentucky lost to I-AA Central Arkansas by three TDs last week; they're 3-4 as road dog. Navy lost tough game at Pitt last week, has rivalry game with Air Force on deck- they're 5-9 as home fave.

-- Troy beat Arkansas State last two years, 35-9/27-0, as ASU hit only 29 of 60 passes; ASU had last week off after getting waxed in Nebraska. Trojans gave up 87 points in losing road tilts at Bowling Green, Florida.

-- Middle Tennessee beat North Texas last three years by 35-20-29 pts; UNT had shown improvement until freshman QB Dodge got hurt- they lost 53-7 at Alabama last week. MTSU beat Maryland for second year in a row last week.

-- 10 of last 14 FIU home games stayed under total; Panthers are 4-1 vs spread in last five home games, and won 35-16 (+19) at Toledo last yr. Rockets scored 67 points in first two games, then lost 38-0 to Ohio St. in Cleveland last week.

College Football Cheat Sheet: Week 4

No. 1 Florida at Kentucky (+21.5, 53.5)

When Florida covers: The Gators have won 22 consecutive in this series with an average margin of victory of 28.8 in the past 15.

Why Kentucky covers: UK has three small advantages: It’s UF’s first road game, the Gators are likely to suffer a bit of a letdown off the hyped game with Tennessee and apparently the flu is ravaging UF this week.

UTEP at No. 2 Texas (-36, 62.5)

Why Texas covers: The Longhorns are 25-1 against non-conference teams since the start of the 2004 season, while UTEP has dropped 10 in a row to ranked teams and has just three wins against Top 25 clubs all-time.

Why UTEP covers: The Miners only lost by 29 last year (although that was at home), and maybe they can get a few picks off UT’s Colt McCoy; the 2008 Heisman runner-up already has four this year - half as many as his season total a year ago.

Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama (-17.5, 58)

Why Arkansas covers: QB Ryan Mallett looks like he’s the real deal for the Hogs. He’s the nation’s top-rated passer and Arkansas has the No. 2 offense in the country. The Razorbacks are 10-for-10 in red zone offense.

Why ‘Bama covers: Alabama’s defense, No. 3 overall in the nation, is talented enough to slow down the Hogs. The d-unit is tied for the SEC lead in sacks.

Iowa at No. 4 Penn State (-9.5, 40)

Why Iowa covers: Coach Kirk Ferentz is 3-1 straight up against Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 0-3 against the spread this season despite sporting a 3-0 straight up mark.

Why Penn State: Despite the team’s ATS struggles, Penn State has dominated each of its opponents and appears to be head and shoulders above the rest of the Big Ten.

No. 6 Cal at Oregon (+5.5, 57.5)

Why Cal covers: Tailback Jahvid Best, possibly the leading Heisman candidate right now, averages a conference-best 137.3 rushing yards per game and scored five times against the Gophers last week.

Why Oregon covers: The Ducks’ ground game seems to be adjusting to life without LeGarrette Blount. After rushing for 31 yards at Boise State, the Ducks ran for 193 in a win against Purdue and 217 in last week’s upset of Utah.

No. 7 LSU at Mississippi State (+12.5, 43.5)

Why LSU covers: The Tigers have won nine straight against Mississippi State, including last year's 34-24 victory. During that winning streak, LSU has outscored the Bulldogs 374-105.

Why Mississippi State covers: MSU went 1-22 against ranked teams from 2001 through the middle of the 2007 season but has turned things around since. The team has won three of its past six against ranked foes.

No. 8 Boise State at Bowling Green (+16.5, 50.5)

Why Boise State covers: The Broncos have only lost to one unranked, non-BCS team since 2002 and beat Bowling Green 20-7 last year. Their running attack averages nearly 200 yards per game, and the Falcons gave up 181 yards rushing in a loss at Missouri and 246 yards rushing in a loss at Marshall.

Why Bowling Green covers: The Falcons must feel a little better about things after watching the Boise defense allow 34 points and three long touchdown runs last week at Fresno State. Plus the Broncos lost leading rusher D.J. Harper for the season.

Washington State at No. 10 Southern Cal (-45, 54)

Why Washington State covers: USC offense is nowhere near as potent as years past. The Trojans will be starting a true freshman with a bum shoulder and in case you didn’t know, 45 is a lot of points to give.

Why USC covers: The Trojans figure to take out last week’s frustrations on the Cougars, whom USC beat 69-0 last year. Wazzu lost top running back James Montgomery for the season with a leg injury and is last in the Pac-10 in defense.

Illinois at No. 11 Ohio State (-14, 49.5)

Why Illinois covers: Juice Williams and the Illini have given OSU problems. Last year Illinois lost by just 10, while two seasons ago they upset the No. 1 Buckeyes in Columbus. Plus Illinois was off last week, giving it more time to prepare and get healthy (Williams and WR Arrelious Benn, among others, were banged up).

Why Ohio State covers: QB Terrelle Pryor is coming off the best game of his career. The Buckeyes have outscored opponents 151-40 in their past four conference openers. OSU gets back its No. 1 punter after he sat out last week with the flu.

No. 13 Miami at No. 12 Virginia Tech (+3, 47)

Why Miami covers: Sophomore Jacory Harris has vaulted himself into the Heisman talk. He ranks third nationally in passing efficiency (184.07), has 656 passing yards in two games and has already accounted for six touchdowns. Tech’s defense should be the best he has seen so far, however.

Why Virginia Tech covers: The Hokies are 1-1 against UM since Randy Shannon took over but haven’t lost to the Canes since 2005 in Blacksburg.

No. 14 TCU at Clemson (-3, 42.5)

Why TCU covers: The stellar Horned Frogs defense might not have to face a 100 percent healthy C.J. Spiller, who is easily Clemson’s best player. The star RB has a turf toe that he says “hurts all over” but insists he will start Saturday.

Why Clemson covers: The Tigers have a 26-29 record all-time against top 25 teams at home, including a 7-11-1 record against non-conference top 25 teams. But it has won four of the past six at home against ranked foes.

Fresno State at No. 15 Cincinnati (-17, 61.5)

Why Fresno State covers: The Bulldogs have to be thinking they can run the ball on anyone after watching RB Ryan Mathews rush for a career-high 234 yards against a great Boise State rush defense.

Why Cincinnati covers: The Bearcats run defense is about as good as the Fresno run offense. The stop unit has allowed just 208 yards rushing combined in three games.

Arizona State at No. 17 Georgia (-11.5, 52.5)

Why Arizona State covers: The Sun Devils have been preparing for this game for months after opening with cupcakes in Idaho State and

Louisiana-Monroe. They lead the nation in total offense.

Why Georgia covers: The Bulldogs have lost just two non-conference games under Mark Richt. They beat the Sun Devils 27-10 in Tempe last year. The Georgia offense is on fire, having scored a combined 93 points during their last two games.

No. 18 North Carolina at Georgia Tech (-2.5, 47)

Why North Carolina covers: The Heels totally stuffed that Georgia Tech triple-option in a 28-7 win last year in Chapel Hill. This year, UNC leads the ACC and ranks seventh nationally in rushing defense, allowing just 52.3 yards per game.

Why Georgia Tech covers: The Jackets have a few extra days to prepare following last Thursday’s loss at Miami. Tech has not lost to UNC in Atlanta since 1997 and has won nine of the last 11 meetings overall.

Southern Miss at No. 19 Kansas (-14, 58)

Why Southern Miss covers: The Golden Eagles enter with the nation’s second-longest winning streak. They rushed for 214 yards against Virginia last week and can keep the potent KU offense off the field if they can control the ball.

Why Kansas covers: The Jayhawks have won 19 consecutive non-conference home games, which dates to 2003. KU has outscored its first three opponents this year by a combined score of 97-26. The Southern Miss pass defense was shredded last week by a bad Virginia team.

Colorado State at No. 20 BYU (-17, 55.5)

Why Colorado State covers: The Rams almost pulled off the upset last year, losing 45-42 at home. This year, CSU is gunning for its first 4-0 start since 1994 and looked good last week in handling Nevada.

Why BYU covers: The Cougars have to regroup after being punished by Florida State, but BYU hasn’t lost a conference home game since late in the 2005 season. It has won five in a row in this series and CSU hasn’t beaten a ranked team on the road since 1997.

No. 21 Missouri at Nevada (+7, 61)

Why Missouri covers: Mizzou covered by a mile against Nevada last year, 69-17. Chase Daniel had his way with the Nevada pass defense in 2008, and that unit isn’t much better. New Missouri starter Blaine Gabbert has completed 68 percent of his throws with eight TDs and no picks so far.

Why Nevada covers: The Wolf Pack have the offensive firepower to keep pace with the Tigers. Nevada should be extra motivated in its home opener.

Indiana at No. 22 Michigan (-20.5, 54.5)

Why Indiana covers: This could be a trap game for Michigan. The Wolverines has their rivalry game at Michigan State next week. The Hoosiers have allowed just one sack this year in three wins.

Why Michigan covers: It’s homecoming for the Wolverines (they are 82-26 in those overall), who lead the Big Ten in scoring offense (38.0 avg.) and rushing offense (270.7 avg.).UM has also won 23 straight conference openers at home.

Texas Tech at No. 23 Houston (-1, 73)

Why Texas Tech covers: TTU QB Taylor Potts leads the country with an average of 427 yards passing per game. Texas Tech coach Mike Leach is an offensive guru who always finds ways of pointing points up on the board.

Why Houston covers: The Cougars own C-USA’s No. 1 pass defense and the nation’s top scoring offense.

UL Lafayette at No. 24 Nebraska (-27.5, 53.5)

Why ULL covers: The Ragin’ Cajuns beat Kansas State and played LSU closer than the score indicated last week. Their offensive line is a strength with five starters back no sacks allowed yet this year.

Why Nebraska covers: You’d assume a bit of a letdown for Nebraska this week after letting that game at Virginia Tech get away last Saturday. Plus the Huskers then have a week off before playing at Missouri. The Huskers have lost three of their past four homecoming games.

South Florida at No. 25 Florida State (-14, 49.5)

Why South Florida covers: The Bulls will be amped up for this game, as it’s the program’s first game against Florida State ever. FSU’s pass defense is among the worst in the nation.

Why Florida covers: USF will be starting a redshirt freshman at QB after losing Matt Grothe for the season. The Noles rediscovered their ground game last week, gouging the Cougars for 313 yards.

Canes invade Blacksburg
By AllStar.com

It's been several years since Miami and Virginia Tech were both among the nation's elite.

While it's still early in the season, the No. 9 Hurricanes and No. 11 Hokies realize Saturday's meeting at Blacksburg has the potential to define their respective seasons.

Miami (2-0, 2-0 ACC) and Virginia Tech (2-1, 0-0) head into their game at Lane Stadium both ranked for the first time since 2005, as the Hurricanes in particular have enjoyed a return to national prominence.

In their two games against ranked opponents, including a 34-24 loss to then-No. 5 Alabama on Sept. 5. Virginia Tech has averaged 216.5 yards of offense, 75.0 on the ground. It gained 605 total yards in a victory over unranked Marshall on Sept. 12.

Quarterbacks: Miami’s quarterback Jacory Harris has led the Hurricanes to victories over Florida State and Georgia Tech in his first two games as the full-time starter. Harris went 20 of 25 for 270 yards and three touchdowns in Miami's 33-17 win over the then-14th-ranked Yellow Jackets on Sept. 17. Harris threw for 386 yards and two touchdowns in the opener against the Seminoles. Miami is averaging 35.5 points and leads the ACC with 465.0 yards of total offense per game. Last season, the Hurricanes averaged 326.0 yards and 27.1 points.

The Hokies quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been hesitant to run with the ball this year. The junior, who rushed for 738 yards last season seventh-best among quarterbacks, has run for negative yardage in two of the first three games. Miami’s defensive line is fast but undisciplined and Taylor will have to make something happen on foot when the protection breaks down. He's completing only 48-percent of his passes this season with 444 yards, three touchdowns, and one pick. He's added 10 yards on the ground in three games. For his career, he's a 54-percent passer with 2,407 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 11 picks. He has 1,177 career rushing yards and 13 scores. Taylor has to be able to turn it loose and run against the Canes.

Running Backs: Ryan Williams has 342 yards on 50 carries (6.8/carry) and six touchdowns in three games so far this season and he's added 80 yards on four catches. True freshman David Wilson brings some big play ability to the backfield. He's gained 161 yards and one touchdown on just 15 carries so far this season. Sophomore Josh Oglesby is in the rotation. Look for Miami to utilize their talented running back tandem of Javarris James and Graig Cooper quite a bit on the ground. Both are used extensively in the passing game as well. The Canes will test the Hokie run defense early which ranks 107th in the nation.

Wide Receivers: The Hokies returned both starters from last year in sophomores Danny Coale and Jarret “Big Play” Boykins both of whom were three-star prospects coming out of high school. Coale has five catches for 148 yards this season while Boykin has nine for 94. Also in the mix are Dyrell Roberts and TE Greg Boone who has three career touchdowns.

Miami’s receivers are young but talented. Sophomores LaRon Byrd and Travis Benjamin have both shown flashes of brilliance. There’s plenty of big play ability there. Leonard Hankerson and Dedrick Epps are two other talented wide outs who will get into the mix. Hankerson is averaging 21.4 yards per catch. Miami is all about speed with their wide outs.

Defense: “Beamer Ball” stands for Va Tech scoring on Defense and Special Teams. Under Frank Beamer, Tech’s defense has scored 79 touchdowns, 59 on pass interceptions, 26 on fumble returns, and 2 on fumble recoveries. The Hokies expect to have senior cornerback Stephan Virgil in the lineup after he missed two games with a bruised left knee. Virgil, who had 31 tackles last season, is looking to help improve a defense that is giving up an uncharacteristic 364.3 total yards per game. DE Jason Worilds and linebacker Cody Grimm, seemed almost unstoppable against The Huskers.

Miami’s defense is young and fast but not extremely disciplined. They blow there gaps and over pursue. They are one of the most athletic groups in the country and can make up for their mistakes. Brandon Harris has been the team's top defender thus far, tallying a team-high 13 tackles (six solo, seven assisted) to go along with an ACC-high five passes defended. Miami’s front seven are exceeding expectations. They held the high flying Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets to 95 yards rushing last week.

Special Teams: Frank Beamer teams always make a mark on special team and Dyrell Roberts has 835 yards on kick-off returns and averages 24.8 yards per punt return. During the Frank Beamer era 32 different players have scored touchdowns on Special Teams.

Graig Cooper has 238 yards on kick returns for the Hurricanes. Matt Bosher is 9-9 in extra points and 2 of 4 in field goals for the Canes.

These two teams do not like each other. What you will see Saturday is a hard-hitting brawl for 60 minutes. This game could go either way, but in close games, home field advantage and special teams can often make the difference. But the youth and athleticism of Miami cannot be discounted. Look for a dog fight in Blacksburg this Saturday.

Trends:
Va Tech has a 56-8 mark in September dating back to the 1993season, including a 17-3 mark over the past four-plus seasons MIAMI are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Under is 14-6 in MIAMI last 20 games in September.
Under is 14-4 in VATCH last 18 home games.
MIAMI are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

Top Gridiron Battles
By Bodog

It looks so easy watching it on television – just advance the ball 10 yards, and you get four downs to do it. But football teams in the pros and in college have to design increasingly complex offensive strategies to move the ball downfield against defenders that get bigger, faster, and stronger every year. It can take a game or two to work the bugs out. Not coincidentally, the over was the winning football bet in both the NFL (9-7) and FBS (34-30) last week.

We’ll see if the nation’s offenses continue to mature this week. All times are Eastern; for the latest football betting lines, visit Bodog Sports.

No. 9 Miami-Florida at No. 11 Virginia Tech (3:30 p.m., ABC)

The Hurricanes (2-0 SU and ATS) are 3-point road favorites and getting plenty of attention in their return to the national spotlight. The offense is rolling with QB Jacory Harris (five touchdowns and five picks in two games) earning some early Heisman buzz as a sophomore. And QB Tyrod Taylor finagled a win for Virginia Tech (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) last week against Nebraska. But the Cornhuskers run defense was good enough to cash in as a 5-point puppy, and Miami is also stout against the run. Taylor picked up negative yardage in each of Tech’s two ATS losses. The ‘Canes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight yearly visits to Lane Stadium, with the under at 5-2.

Iowa at No. 5 Penn State (8:00 p.m., ABC)

Last year’s 11-win season (7-4-1 ATS) and trip to the Rose Bowl put at least a temporary end to the questions surrounding the abilities of Penn State’s octogenarian coach, Joe Paterno. The Lions are off to another strong start at 3-0, but only 0-3 ATS, failing to cover spreads of nearly 30 points in each game. They’re laying only 10 points (–105) this week, and it’s to the only team that beat them in the regular season last year, the Hawkeyes (3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS). Iowa will blitz Penn State QB Darryl Clark (eight TDs, three INTs) and take advantage of the holes in his offensive line. That should keep the game fairly close as Iowa attempts to mask its own deficiencies in protecting QB Ricky Stanzi (five TDs, three INTs). The underdog is 7-2 against the football odds in their last nine matchups.

STAY ON THE CASH EXPRESS
By: Tom Stryker

It doesn’t matter if you’re handicapping football, basketball or baseball, momentum is a valuable tool. When teams finally get their act together and play well, they have a tendency to do it for a number of games in a row or a set period of time.

With that theory in mind, I decided to take a look at how well college football teams do provided they get out of the gate quickly. My knee-jerk reaction was to fade these clubs that opened up hot thinking they would cool off sooner rather than later. It’s a good think I consulted my college football database before doing that. It would have cost me and my bankroll dearly. Take a look at this discovery.

Since 1980, PLAY ON any game four college football team provided they open with a 3-0 SU and ATS run.

29 Year ATS Record = 51-40 ATS for 56.0 percent.

This Week’s Plays = MICHIGAN, BOISE STATE & AUBURN.

There’s not a bundle of profit with that general situation. However, it’s good enough to warrant a closer look. That’s exactly what I did.

If our “play on” team is matched up against an opponent that enters with a little momentum of their own off a straight up victory, this system tightens up to a money-making 37-22 ATS for 62.7 percent. With good ‘ol “Mo” on both sides, the value on this contest is kept in check. If our 3-0 SU and ATS team was matched up against an opponent that arrived off a blowout loss, the line probably would have been way too inflated to even consider. Of the three teams listed above, only Michigan fits this tightener.

There are two other areas I found that makes this system even stronger. With our 37-22 ATS in hand and our side off a non-conference affair, this technical gem zips to a phenomenal 30-13 ATS for 69.7 percent. Conference games tend to be a little more emotional and physical and they can leave a team tired and fatigued. Off a non-conference game, the argument could be made that our side stays fresh and focused. The Wolverines apply to this special parameter too.

Finally, clinging to our 30-13 ATS set, this power situation tightens up to a remarkable 22-5 ATS for 81.4 percent provided our “play on” club is effectively priced as a favorite of -21 or less. Fortunately for us, the Maize and Blue are resting at -20 at press time which means UM fits this parameter perfectly.

Off three wins over Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan and Akron, Indiana will be making a huge step up in class here when the Hoosiers travel to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan. The Wolverines check in off a 3-0 SU and ATS run over Western Michigan, Notre Dame and Eastern Michigan and UM will be looking to dominate an IU team they’ve whipped in 22 of the last 23 meetings (15-8 ATS). Stay on the cash express with Michigan!

Eye on the skies: Storms hit college football's biggest games
By Covers.com

Lots of showers are on tap across the country that could easily affect a majority of college games this weekend. Storm patterns the Southeast and the East Coast threaten to dump all over the gridiron. Sneak a look below at the possible implications of these storms, and as always, take one last look at the forecast before finalizing any wagers. Stay dry.

Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats (+21.5, 53.5)

The Gators are used to the rain, playing amid showers in nearly all of their games this season. That trend should continue on Saturday as there is a 70 percent chance of showers in the Blue Grass state. Florida relies much more on its ground game than a high-powered passing attack, so expect the Gators offense to continue to click on the road.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Alabama Crimson Tide (-17.5, 58)

Ryan Mallett jumped right into the Razorbacks record books with five TD passes against Georgia. But good luck with that against the Tide’s defense or amidst a downpour, as the forecast is calling for a 100 percent chance of thunderstorms in Tuscaloosa. Alabama also has the better running game and heavy rain should only help the Tide cover the spread.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions (-9.5, 40.5)

The Lions have had their share of showers in big night games. Last season, Penn State outlasted Illinois, 38-24 amidst a steady rain in front of a national TV audience. Both of these teams figure to want to run the ball, but a steady rain – which has a 90 percent chance of falling – will hurt Penn State more, which has a clear advantage in the passing game. The more rain means these two conservative teams will button up even more.

LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+11, 44)

This early kickoff figures to see plenty of precipitation, as there is a 90 percent chance of rain in Starkville. The more showers, the more the scales tilt in favor of LSU, which finally have their defense playing up to a league champion level. The Bulldogs don’t have many offensive weapons and if rain dampens the passing game, LSU could pour on the points.

Miami Hurricanes at Virginia Tech Hokies (+3, 47)

The Hurricanes tout a top 10 ranking and two of the most impressive victories of the early season. But they face a new opponent in Blacksburg: rain. There is a 100 percent chance of precipitation during the game, and the last thing the Hokies want to see, as their rush defense is ranked 107th in the nation. Miami is suffering through several injuries, but the rain should only serve to help the Hurricanes control the ball and the game.

TCU Horned Frogs at Clemson Tigers (-2.5, 41)

Death Valley features a 90 percent chance of showers and a northeast wind blowing at about nine miles per hour. The Tigers have explosive runner C.J. Spiller, but this could be the biggest hurdle remaining between TCU and an undefeated season. The Horned Frogs have the better defense and are schooled on ball control. Rain plays into TCU’s game and should negate Clemson’s passing game.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Georgia Bulldogs (-12, 50)

The Bulldogs might not have a strong defense, but they have shown the ability to put up points, and shouldn’t cool off against the Sun Devils, as there is a 60 percent chance of showers. The cross-country trip should be only be harder for Arizona State if it rains, and a quick score or two could open the floodgates on an ugly game.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-2.5, 45)

The Hurricanes created a blue print on how to take down the Yellow Jackets last week, but the Ramblin’ Wreck figures to rebound with a better effort this week. Plus, with an 80 percent chance of rain, the triple-option should create even more problems for the Tar Heels. North Carolina needs a huge game from its offensive line to leave Atlanta with a win.

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines (-20, 53.5)

Both teams enter the game at 3-0, but Michigan is heavily favored to deal the Hoosiers their first loss of the season. There is a 50 percent chance of rain, but both squads prefer to run the ball –Michigan from the spread and Indiana from a more traditional set. If the Wolverines jump out to an early lead, it could start raining points, too.

Saturday Night Action
By Sportsbook.com

Saturday night is alright for College Football

Iowa at Penn State (8:00 PM ET, ABC)

The Big Ten kicks off its conference slate this week with a full set of matchups. The highlight contest is in State College, Pennsylvania, and the ESPN Game Day Crew and ABC will be on hand for the battle of unbeatens, Iowa and Penn State. Kickoff time is set for 8:00 PM ET, and Penn State is a near double-digit favorite at Sportsbook.com. Several interesting trends suggest the game might be much closer though.

Iowa has drawn very few patsies in Big Ten openers since the new millennium began and this will be no different. The Hawkeyes have been 4-0 twice in the previous six years and a third time would bring significant attention to Kirk Ferentz’s football program, beating highly ranked Penn State. Iowa football is about the basics, blocking and tackling and the offensive line has started to come together. A pair of freshmen running backs (Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson) has folks in Iowa City excited. If QB Ricky Stanzi continues to read defenses proficiently and the Iowa defense holds up its end of the deal, they’ll have a chance here. Iowa is ranked 14th in points surrendered at 12 per game. The Hawkeyes are 8-3 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

At this juncture, it’s not easy to gauge just how good Penn State is or isn’t. Most top level teams would plow through Akron, Syracuse and Temple at home, just like the Nittany Lions have. However, they have yet to cover a pointspread. The Penn State players’ hearts should be racing, as Iowa handed them their only regular season loss a year ago, 24-23 as seven-point road favorites. Joe Pa’s club is 8-3 ATS when favored by 17 or fewer points at home in the last four years. So far their defense has held three crummy opponents to 6.7 PPG, however, Iowa’s not exactly an offense juggernaut ranked 68th in total offense.

The Hawkeyes are 4-14 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards per carry. Iowa however has held the upper hand with a 7-3 and 8-2 ATS mark over PSU in the last 15 years. The underdog has bitten as much as it could chew with an 8-2 ATS record, including five outright upsets. And get this, Penn State is bizarro-world 0-14 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game.

Get all the key info for this battle of Big Ten titans on Sportsbook.com’s GAME MATCHUP.

Texas Tech at Houston (9:15 PM ET, ESPN2)

If you still have the itch for more college football after a full afternoon and evening on Saturday, ESPN2 and Sportsbook.com have a treat for you, starting at 9:15 PM ET. It’s an old-fashioned Texas-style shootout between Texas Tech and Houston in what could be the most fun game of the day. Word has it the score is already 17-13 and they haven’t kicked off yet. Could be a nice game to back OVER the total of 73.5.

It’s back to work for Houston after a bye week, enjoying the adulation of knocking of then No.5 Oklahoma State on their home field 45-35. They will try and knock off another Big 12 team, Texas Tech, this time at home. Being 3-0 with two wins over Big 12 teams will have Houston and Conference USA being mentioned as a BCS bowl-crasher this season. Coach Kevin Sumlin has taken what Art Briles started and improved it. The Cougars are ranked for the first time in 18 years and there is a lot of excitement about triggerman Case Keenum. With all the praise, coach Sumlin’s toughest job might be refocusing his team; not playing Texas Tech. Houston is 15-25 ATS in non-conference play since 2000.

Texas Tech comes off the Texas revenge game and played better than expected in a 34-24 defeat but pointspread cover. With the playing surface less an issue today for the sports bettor than before, Texas Tech is a curious 10-22 SU and ATS in regular season games on natural grass.

As Mississippi proved Thursday night, playing with expectations can be a stifling experience and this is what Houston has tonight. With a win over Okie State, Houston is 10-5 ATS versus BCS schools since 2001, but 0-9 ATS after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the lStaast three seasons. Coach Leach is one of the best bounce back coaches in the game off a loss; with his team 25-12 ATS in the next effort. The total is a vexing figure with Texas Tech 27-9 OVER off a cover and the Cougars 8-2 UNDER after a bye week.

The Power Line says Texas Tech by 2. The Sportsbook.com actual line shows a pick em’. Hmmm???

Game of the day: Iowa at Penn State
By Nick Parsons

Iowa Hawkeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions (-9.5, 40.5)

Just like Texas-Texas Tech last week, Saturday night's feature game once again takes on the revenge theme when the No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions host to the Iowa Hawkeyes (8PM EST ABC).

Both teams come in at 3-0 but the media focus will be on Iowa's 24-23 upset win last year. The last-second field goal to win the game put then No. 3 Penn State out of contention for the BCS Championship.

Just like all coaches, Joe Paterno and Kirk Ferentz have tried to downplay the revenge factor, but last year's game is no doubt on the minds of players and fans. Penn State SR QB and team captain Daryll Clark, who threw a key interception in the fourth quarter that set up the game winning drive, seems to have taken the loss on his shoulders.

“There’s nothing that anyone can tell to make me believe that it wasn’t my fault, period,” Clark told reporters.

This is his last chance to make amends and this year Clark will have the benefit of home-field advantage with the 107,000-plus crowd encouraged to "white out" Beaver Stadium.

Penn State easily won its first three games of the season, but pretty much treated Akron, Syracuse and Temple as preseason warmups for the Big Ten opener. Iowa has been tested a bit more. The Hawkeyes avoided a near scare, squeaking a 17-16 win over FCS team Northern Iowa. They then blew out Iowa State on the road 35-3 and came out with a tough 27-17 win over a decent Arizona team.

Blue Royster Cult

Iowa has one of the best secondaries in the nation so it’s no secret that Penn State will try and dictate its offense around star running back Evan Royster, who rushed for 90 yards and one TD in last year's game.

The running game as a whole looked sluggish in the first two games with three new starters on the offensive line. Prior to the Temple game, Royster announced on his Facebook page, "Evan Royster is sick.... very sick" but that didn't seem to matter as Royster rushed for 136 yards and one TD, averaging 6.8 yards per carry.

The Hawkeyes defense did well against the rush versus Arizona last week, who came into the game averaging 305 yards per game. A key moment occurred late in the first quarter after having given up a 58 yard run. Iowa stayed firm after this big play forcing the Wildcats to kick a field goal. The goal line stand turned momentum and Arizona had a tough time rushing for the rest of the game.

Iowa has an excellent defensive line and it will be backed up by a talented and experienced linebacker corps led by SR Pat Angerer. Penn State had trouble in the red zone in last year's game having to settle for three points on a couple early drives.

Royster will have to grind it out and put in an All-American performance and Daryll Clark, who rushed for 10 TD’s last year, will also have to establish himself as a threat on the ground. Clark has only rushed six times for one yard this year, but claims that they have only used 70 percent of their playbook in the first three games.

While all signs point to a stereotypical Big Ten matchup, Penn State's may surprise and go to the air more. Iowa's secondary are ball hawks (pun intended) and they will be facing an inexperienced receiving core.

Last year, Clark had NFLers Derrick Williams and Deon Butler to throw to and he only went 9-for-23 for 86 yards. Offensive coordinator Galen Hall has modernized the offense in the last couple years and he is fully aware of the focus on containing Royster. While there are no high profile recruits at WR, Hall did shape former walk on Butler into an NFL-caliber receiver. If the passing game can produce some big plays early and avoid turnovers, this could open up the lanes more Royster.

Second Half Stanzi

Iowa's JR QB Ricky Stanzi has already developed a reputation for being a second-half performer. So far this year Stanzi has a 72.9 percent completion rate in the second half, but is only 49 percent in the first half. Stanzi didn't seem to wake up until the final 10 minutes of last year's game, but was near perfect leading two key scoring drives.

So it may sound cliché, but Penn State's best defense might have to be its offense. The Lions will want to have a big lead going into the half, as a close game may be in Iowa's favor. Stanzi isn't flashy and doesn't put up big stats but he is like Ben Roethlisberger seeming to come up big in clutch situations.

The early departure of Shonn Greene to the NFL hurts their running game a bit, but two talented freshmen have stepped in his place. Carries will be split between Adam Robinson, who ran for 101 yards and two scores against Arizona, and Brandon Wegher, who was rated the 16th best running back out high school by scout.com.

Depleted Resources

Both teams are expected to be missing several starters Saturday, but Penn State may have the edge here. Stanzi will have a downgrade on his blindside with star LT Bryan Bulaga out with an undisclosed illness. Favorite targets TE Tony Moeaki and last year's leading receiver WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos are still listed as day-to-day.

It appears that Penn State starting linebackers Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman won't suit up for the game, but Penn State is called linebacker U for a reason and boosts tremendous depth at that position

Stat Crunchers Beware

When looking at the head-to-head stats in the series, Iowa's six wins in the last seven games sticks out but this is a bit misleading. Penn State was in its dark days in the early part of the decade and its rise back to top of conference in 2005 coincided with a two-year hiatus in the series.

Also, none of the matchups have resembled each other in any shape or form. The 2002 game featured at high scoring 42-35 overtime win for Iowa, while the 2004 matchup was a bizarre 6-4 loss for Penn State.

In 2005, Joe Pa upgraded the program and they went from 4-7 to 11-1 and an Orange Bowl victory. They didn't play Iowa until 2007 and easily beat them in Happy Valley 27-7. Last year, they had to deal with a tough road crowd in Iowa City and they did have a 9-point lead in the fourth quarter.

The Line

The spread currently hovers between -9.5 and -10 in favor of Penn State. Last year, Penn State was undefeated going into the game and were a 7-point favorite. Iowa was coming off a 3-point loss to Illinois, but since last year's upset it has not lost a game. In the last matchup at Beaver stadium in 2007, Penn State was a 9-point favorite and covered the spread winning 27-7.

With key Hawkeye injuries and home-field advantage, Penn State has the ability to blow out this game early if Clark is on point and Royster puts in a big performance. But the Hawkeyes will most likely slow down the pace of the game to prevent an early blowout.

The total for the game sits at 40 at most books and that number has been consistent in this series. The total was 40 in 2003, 2004, and 2007 pushing once and going under twice. Last year's total was 42.5 and because of Stanzi's fourth quarter performance, it went over.

If Iowa can keep the game close and minimize the effect of the crowd then there is value not only in the spread but in the +310 moneyline as well. Penn State to win straight up is around -370.

Bettors weary of Stanzi's slow starts may also want to look into the first half spread which sits at -6 in favor of Penn State.

Penn State is currently 0-3 ATS but, as mentioned above, it treated the first three games like preseason NFL games and were backdoored by late insignificant touchdowns (well not for bettors) by Akron and Syracuse.

Iowa is 2-0 ATS having been a single-digit favorite against Iowa State and Arizona. The last time the Hawkeyes were underdogs was against Penn State last year. We can unofficially count that near upset against North Iowa as an ATS loss though.

Weather

Temperature is expected to be around 54 to 58 around kickoff with a 70 percent chance of precipitation. South East winds (diagonal across the field at Beaver Stadium) will be around 14 mph. Perfect for a Big Ten opener.

College Football Saturday Betting Preview
By Doug Upstone

With Joe Paterno a college football legend, the former Brooklyn native knows his team has taken on three tomato cans and will face a squad with pulse in Big Ten opener against Iowa. The ACC has pair of arresting games, with Miami now a favorite at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech looking to knock North Carolina out of the unbeaten ranks. California has USC next, but cant overlook perfidious Oregon first. Arkansas has given Alabama problems in the past, can they again with quality offense? Speaking of offense, the most fun game by far looks like Texas Tech at Houston, where the score is already 17-13 and they havent kicked off yet. Lines courtesy of BetUS.com.

North Carolina (+2.5, 45.5) at Georgia Tech

The Tar Heels returned nine starters on defense and this has been the strength of the team early in the 2009 campaign. They will now be tested by Georgia Techs powerful option offense in Atlanta. Coach Butch Davis defense held Connecticut offense to 196 total yards and did a good job in limiting East Carolina to 13 first downs and 17 points last week. Whats encouraging is the defense has been a team concept, with 11 different players having made tackles for a loss. They are tied for 10th in the country in points allowed at 11 per game. The offense still needs work as quarterback T.J. Yates is searching for the right chemistry with receivers. North Carolina is 8-4 ATS as single digit ACC underdog.

Georgia Tech has an extra two days to prepare after losing at Miami 33-17 on ESPN last Thursday. The Yellow Jackets success or failure will in part fall upon the right arm of junior Josh Nesbitt. Far from a polished passer, Nesbitt can throw the pigskin accurately when he sticks with his mechanics. When he deviates, he can stink up the joint like he did against Clemson, going thru 1 for 11 spell.

Teams with big physical defenses that have enough quickness on the defensive front, are starting to have success against triple option attacks. This means Nesbit has to continue to be a clutch performer and come up big when called upon as he has in the past with 5-2 and 5-1 ATS record in games decided by four or less points.

Georgia Tech has won three of last five but is 0-5 ATS since 2004 versus the Tar Heels. North Carolina in fact is 11-4 against the spread in last 15 ACC affairs, with the underdog a nicely profitable 8-4 ATS. Watch the oddsmakers line for movement on this contest, with the Heels 8-4 ATS catching three or less points. The Yellow Jackets escaped 27-25 as nine-point home favorite in 2007 and they are 21-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3.

Arkansas (+17.5, 58) at Alabama

Coach Bobby Petrino has a more veteran team this season and has less to worry about from the mental standpoint after his squad lost 52-41 to Georgia at home, before getting ready to play Alabama. Nothing would satisfy Petrinos ego more than to start knocking off giants like the Crimson Tide, so he could update his resume for the next job hes seeking on his Linkedin or Facebook pages. His quarterback is Ryan Mallet, whose displayed NFL arm and ability to find different receivers in Razorbacks offense. Mallet will be tested all game long by Alabama defense that can make QB make poor choices. The Hogs head to Tuscaloosa 10-4 ATS as away dogs.

Coach Nick Sabans defense is like the boss in the office meeting who quietly takes everything in and once hes seen or heard enough takes control. The first few Crimson Tide opponents have had some success moving the ball in the first part of the game, but like a water faucet, are turned off after showing what they expect to do. Field general Greg McElroy has shown growth weekly, delivering strikes to receivers and improving complete view of the field. McElroy strength as a thrower is the deep ball and he'll have numerous opportunities against Razorbacks secondary. Despite a bushel full of athletes, Bama special teams are anything but and the squad is 7-16-1 ATS as SEC favorites of 10 or more points.

This has been one of those SEC series. The home team is 5-10 ATS and has failed to cover the last four engagements and with Mallets big arm and talented pass catchers, Arkansas has at least a punchers chance to cover the spread. The straight up winner is 15-3 ATS all-time when these two universities get together, but has been trending the other way at 1-3 ATS the last four years.

Alabama has won a school record 17 straight SEC openers (8-9 ATS), while the Razorbacks are 4-12 ATS in first conference road trip. Remember also, the Tide is 0-7 ATS at home after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in three straight games and 17-5 UNDER at their place after three or more consecutive wins.

California (-5.5, 55.5) at Oregon

California is off harder than expected trip to the Land of 10,000 Lakes and feels prepared to open Pac-10 play with two treacherous weeks ahead. The Bears offense is in good hands when potential All-American Jahvid Best is carrying the ball. Chances are with all the talent on the field for Cal QB Kevin Riley, he doesnt have to be great all the time; however he might be called upon to be so in enemy territory this week. Though the Bears defense can really get after the passer, they can be passed on (ranked 62nd), especially between the hash marks away from corner Syd'Quan Thompson. Cal is unsightly 0-5 ATS in the second of back to back road tilts.

Each game played places Oregon further away from LeGarrette Blount incident, nonetheless doesnt mask obvious shortcomings. The Ducks receivers have been more likely to catch the H1N1 virus than Jeremiah Masoli passes and the junior quarterback has thrown his fair share of passes this season that have wobbled like, well, a duck. After being bottled up by Boise State, the running game has averaged 205 yards per game the last two weeks. The defense hasnt impressed anyone (82nd in yards allowed), though linebacker Casey Mathews is emerging as playmaker and senior cornerback Walter Thurmond III is an excellent pass defender in a league stuffed with quality defensive backs. In reviewing history, Oregon is 18-4 ATS in first conference clash.

Four of the last six confrontations between these squads have been decided by seven points or less. California is 5-0 ATS playing a Pac-10 foe off a non-conference contest, with average winning margin of 38.6 points per game. Oregon is 21-14 ATS taking on ranked teams the last decade and 12-2 ATS after playing a game at home. Before losing 31-24 in Eugene in 2007, The Ducks had rattled off six straight wins over the Bears with six covers.

Miami (-3, 47.5) at Virginia Tech

Its sad really, from 1992 until 2003, a Miami and Virginia Tech battle was the essence of Big East football. The games werent always close, but they spoke about what made the conference as it grew in stature. These two rivals still meet in ACC action, but the importance has been somewhat diminished.

Coach Randy Shannon clearly did not look at Miamis schedule before taking the job in 2006, since only a person with only short term job ambitions would want to play an early schedule that includes Florida State, Georgia Tech, the Hokies and Oklahoma in its first four games. Miamis new wide-open offense has unleashed QB Jacory Harris, who has embraced the idea of throwing the ball to a variety of receivers. The defense is rounding into formidable unit and is allowing just 3.0 yards per carry. The Hurricanes are 7-2 ATS in last nine road excursions.

This is Virginia Tech third consecutive contest in Blacksburg and they are jacked after knocking off Nebraska in 16-15 thriller this past week, in a game they never should have won. Beamer-ball is often solely associated with special teams, yet what makes Frank Beamer an elite coach is finding offensive linemen that enjoy opening up chasms and shifty running backs who can fly thru them. Add in relentless defenders that run to the ball and the real recipe for success is realized playing Beamer-ball. The Hokies are 34-9 and 29-14 ATS since joining the Athletic Coast Conference.

Virginia Tech is 9-5 and 11-3 ATS versus Miami since 1995, including 5-1 against the spread record at Lane Stadium. The wagering public is both not impressed with the Hokies and very impressed with the Hurricanes, taking the ACC matchup from a Pick, to Miami by three.

The Hokies are only 5-5 ATS in the third of three or more consecutive home games and are just 7-11-1 ATS with home field advantage the last four seasons. Expect the Canes defense to stack the box like the Huskers did and force QB Tyrod Taylor to move the chains. Look for coach Shannon to use RBs Graig Cooper and Javarris James to go after the Hokies 108th ranked run defense (200.3 YPG). The Hurricanes will have to crank up the offense, scoring more than 17 points once in last six contests.

Iowa (+9.5, 40.5) at Penn State

Iowa has drawn very few patsies in Big Ten openers since the new millennium began and this will be no different traveling to State College, PA. The Hawkeyes have been 4-0 twice in the previous six years and a third time would bring significant attention to Kirk Ferentzs football program, beating highly ranked Penn State. Iowa football is about the basics, blocking and tackling. The offensive line has started to come together and pair of freshmen running backs (Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson) has folks in Iowa City excited. If QB Ricky Stanzi continues to read defenses proficiently and finds the hot receiver, the Iowa defense will hold up their end of the deal, ranked 14th in points surrendered at 12 per game. The Hawkeyes are 8-3 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

At this juncture, its not easy to gauge just how good Penn State is or isnt. Most top level teams would plow through Akron, Syracuse and Temple at home, just like the Nittany Lions have. The Penn State players hearts should be racing, as Iowa handed them their only regular season loss a year ago, 24-23 as seven-point road favorites. Senior Daryll Clark has been accurate thrower, as the offensive line has been better at pass-blocking compared to run blocking in September to this point. With the competition in the lightweight category, what we know about the defense is they can stop the run and prevent big plays. Penn State is 8-3 ATS when favored by 17 or fewer points at home in the last four years.

Joe Paternos defense has held three crummy opponents to 6.7 points per game, however, Iowas not exactly an offense juggernaut ranked 68th in total offense. The Hawkeyes are 4-14 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards per carry. Iowa however has held the upper hand with 7-3 and 8-2 ATS mark over Joe Pas troops in the last 15 years. The underdog has bitten as much as it could chew with 8-2 ATS record, including five outright upsets. And get this, Penn State is bizarro-world 0-14 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game.

Texas Tech (+1, 73) at Houston

Its back to work for Houston after a bye week, enjoying the adulation of knocking of then No.5 Oklahoma State on their home field 45-35. They will try and knock off another Big 12 team, Texas Tech, this time at home. Being 3-0 with two wins over Big 12 teams will have Houston and Conference USA being mentioned as BCS bowl-crasher this season. Coach Kevin Sumlin has taken what Art Briles (now at Baylor) started and improved it. The Cougars are ranked for the first time in 18 years and there is a lot of excitement about triggerman Case Keenum. The junior quarterback makes exceptional decisions in finding speedy and quick receivers. With all the praise, coach Sumlins toughest job might be refocusing his team; not playing Texas Tech. Houston is 15-25 ATS in non-conference play since 2000.

Texas Tech comes off the Texas revenge game and played better than expected in 34-24 defeat. QB Taylor Potts is the next signal caller in the Mike Leach assembly line that gets rid of the ball quickly and makes good reads. Potts has security blanket in wide receiver in Lyle Leong, who has been his best friend since elementary school and the two have played football together all along the way. Red Raiders coaches like what they got from running back Tre Newton against the Longhorns, rushing for 88 yards. With the playing surface less an issue today for the sports bettor than before, Texas Tech is a curious 10-22 SU and ATS in regular season games on natural grass.

As Mississippi proved Thursday night, playing with expectations can be stifling experience and this is what Houston has tonight. With win over Okie State, Houston is 10-5 ATS versus BCS schools since 2001, but is 0-9 ATS after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons. Coach Leach is one of the best bounce back coaches in the game off a loss; with his team 25-12 ATS in next effort. The total is vexing figure with Texas Tech 27-9 OVER off a cover and the Cougars 8-2 UNDER after a bye week.