NCAAF News and Notes Saturday 9/5

NCAAF: Games to Watch - Week 1
By Chris David

Georgia at Oklahoma State (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)

Skinny

The SEC and Big 12 fans continue to argue over which conference is better and Week 1 presents an opportunity to brag, as No. 13 Georgia invades Stillwater for a battle against No. 9 Oklahoma State. The Bulldogs received a lot of hype last year and failed to live up to expectations but still managed a respectable 10-3 mark. Mark Richt will look to senior QB Joe Cox to replace Matthew Stafford behind center and a slew of running backs to step in for the departed Knowshon Moreno. The Bulldogs' defense (24.5 PPG) dropped off a bit in 2008 but the unit brings back seven of their top nine tacklers. While Georgia is looking for playmakers on offense, Oklahoma State wishes it had more balls to go around. The trio of QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant could be the best in the nation. The problem with the Cowboys is their defense, which gave up 28.4 PPG last year.

Gambling Notes

Georgia easily handled Oklahoma State 35-14 in Athens two years ago, but most of the personnel have already left each squad. What was noticeable in the loss for the Cowboys was their inability to match the Bulldogs' team speed. This game will be played in Oklahoma, where the Cowboys have rattled off 13 straight home openers. However, Georgia has won eight straight road openers and it's succeeded with defense. The Dawgs have allowed an average 11.2 PPG in their last five road openers. It could be tough to see that number this week, especially against the OSU attack. The oddsmakers agreed, opening the 'over/under' at 64 points for this non-conference battle. Keep in mind that the total has since dropped to 61.

BYU vs. Oklahoma from Dallas (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)

Skinny

Some schools get knocked for cupcake schedules but nobody better take a shot at Bob Stoops and No. 3 Oklahoma. Along with the Big 12 gauntlet, the Sooners face Tulsa, Miami, Fl., and their week 1 opponent No. 20 Brigham Young. QB Sam Bradford and Oklahoma's explosive offense (51.1 PPG) catch all the press in Norman, yet the defense is considered one of the best under Stoops' watch. BYU quarterback Max Hall has the skill players to put up some points, but he could be under pressure with a revamped offensive line in the opener. The Cougars' defense brings back nine players and most will be interested to see how the new Sooners' offensive line holds up against an experienced unit. This game will be played at the new Cowboys stadium, which seats 80,000 plus. Most would expect a lot of Oklahoma faithful in the crowd.

Gambling Notes

The oddsmakers are expecting a 45-23 Oklahoma victory based on the current numbers (Sooners -22, 68) and it very well could happen. Last year, the Sooners went 13-1 SU and 10-3 ATS. In the 10 ATS victories, the Sooners-Over parlay cashed an eye opening nine times. Will the betting public get a nice primetime gift again in Week 1? The Cougars went 4-3 outside of Provo last year, but they hurt gamblers with a 1-5 record. The SU losses came against quality conference opponents in TCU and Utah, plus a setback against Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl. The 'over/under' for this game has been set at 68, which is the highest total for Week 1.

Alabama vs. Virginia Tech from Atlanta (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)

Skinny

Alabama went 12-0 regular in the 2008 regular season and the school started on a strong note with a confidence-building 34-10 over Clemson in the Chick-fil-A Classic from Georgia Dome. This year, the fifth-ranked Crimson Tide returns to Atlanta this weekend and they face another tough test against No. 7 Virginia Tech. Nick Saban's squad (14.3 PPG) showed their defensive prowess last year and the unit should be even better in his third term at Tuscaloosa behind NT Terrence Cody. The offense loses some leadership in RB Glen Coffee and QB John Parker Wilson but still has WR Julio Jones on the outside. The Hokies' attack suffered a tough loss before the season started when RB Darren Evans (1,310) hurt his knee in practice. The loss of Evans for the season means QB Tyrod Taylor will have to carry more weight on his shoulders. Frank Beamer and the Hokies' defense lost some talent but they seem to rebuild every year in Blacksburg, especially on that side of the ball.

Gambling Notes

Virginia Tech has gone 11-2 in its last 13 openers but the two losses came on neutral fields to USC (24-13) at FedEx Field and last year to East Carolina (27-22) in Charlotte. The Hokies haven't fared well against the SEC in recent years, going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in the last three battles. Alabama went 5-2 both SU and ATS in games away from home in 2008. These two schools haven't squared off since meeting in the 1998 Music City Bowl when V-Tech pasted Alabama 38-7. Not that it matters, but the Crimson Tide have won the other 10 meetings. Defense is stressed by both schools and the opening total of 38 is the lowest 'over/under' posted for Week 1.

Other Games to Watch

Nevada at Notre Dame

The oddsmakers believe Notre Dame is ready to return to prominence but the school from South Bend shouldn't be too confident. The Irish are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in its last four openers under Charlie Weis. Plus, they face a Nevada team that can light up the scoreboard, especially if quarterback Colin Kaepernick gets going. Catching two touchdowns seems tempting, especially against a squad that's emptied out piggy banks in the past.

LSU at Washington

It will be interesting to see how LSU responds with a cross-country trip to Washington in Week 1. The Tigers have been listed as healthy double-digit favorites and deservingly so against a Huskies team that went 0-12 last year. UW will begin the Steve Sarkisian era in Seattle and fortunately for him, he's got QB Jake Locker returning to the lineup. We'll get to see how good he is against a feisty LSU defense that is hungry after a mediocre 8-5 season.

vegasinsider.com

College Football Weekend Cheat Sheet: Week 1
By MATT SEVERANCE

We’re back this year to give you a few nuggets on every Top 25 matchup each weekend (with some programs playing FCS teams this week, not all games involving ranked programs have odds).

Louisiana-Monroe at No. 2 Texas (-41.5, 65)

Louisiana-Monroe beat Alabama a few years ago, but this year’s team is picked to finish just seventh in the Sun Belt, so it’s hard to see the Warhawks keeping it close.

Texas opens against a non-BCS conference team for the 10th year in a row and has won the past nine by an average score of 49.6.

No. 20 Brigham Young at No. 3 Oklahoma (-22, 67.5)

The Cougars return 12 starters, led by QB Max Hall, from last year’s 10-win team. Top RB Harvey Unga should play despite dealing with a hamstring injury.

The Sooners get their first chance at rid the taste of the Florida loss out of their mouths. BYU has lost 12 straight games to ranked non-conference opponents. Sooners star tight end Jermaine Gresham is likely to sit out with a knee injury.

San Jose State at No. 4 USC (-32.5, 48)

The Spartans’ best chance to cover is to try and fluster USC true freshman QB Matt Barkley in his collegiate debut. The Trojans will be without starting center Krisofer O’Dowd and No. 2 WR Ronald Johnson.

The Trojans are is 28-1 all time against WAC opponents and San Jose State has not beaten a ranked opponent since 2000. USC might be looking ahead to Ohio State, however.

No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 7 Virginia Tech (+6.5, 38)

The Hokies’ chances of winning this game, and perhaps the ACC, took a blow when Darren Evans was lost for the year. But that defense gets a shot at unproven Tide QB Greg McElroy.

The Tide got good and bad news this week: Starting running back Julio Jones and RB Mark Ingram were cleared to play by the NCAA. But defensive end Brandon Deaderick is not expected to play after being shot during a robbery.

Navy at No. 6 Ohio State (-21.5, 47)

The Midshipmen are always a nightmare matchup on offense (they again led college football in rushing last year) and have 13 starters back overall.

The Buckeyes simply don’t lose home openers, not having done so since 1978. Plus they had all summer to prepare for Navy’s unique option offense.

Akron at No. 9 Penn State (-27, 59)

Akron struggled on defense and PSU averaged 52.8 points per game in its four non-conference tilts last year.

The Nittany Lions welcome back coach Joe Paterno to the sideline (instead of the coaching box, where he was after hip surgery last year) and star LB Sean Lee after he missed all of last year with an injury.

No. 13 Georgia at No. 9 Oklahoma State (-5, 61.5)

The Bulldogs have to break in a new starting QB and featured running back but have a very experienced offensive line that could dominate. Running back Caleb King didn't make the trip to Stillwater because of a hamstring injury.

The Cowboys lost two starters this week in LB Orie Lemon (torn ACL) and TE Jamal Mosley (quit team). QB Zac Robinson, despite a few reports indicating otherwise, will play this week.

No. 11 LSU at Washington (+17.5, 53.5)

The Huskies have lost 14 straight games but have a new identity under coach Steve Sarkisian and get back QB Jake Locker.

LSU running backs Keiland Williams and Charles Scott could have a field day against a Washington defense that allowed 250.6 yards rushing per game last season.

Maryland at No. 12 California (-21, 51)

The Terps were a different club against ranked teams last year, going 4-1 as opposed to 4-4 against unranked team. But they bring back just nine starters and are rebuilding both lines.

The Bears might have the best secondary in the country and probably do have the best running back in Jahvid Best. They will remember last year’s 35-27 loss at Maryland. Now it’s the Terps who have to travel cross country.

Nevada at No. 23 Notre Dame (-14.5, 61)

The Wolf Pack are very dangerous behind dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick, who last year became the fifth player in NCAA history to pass for more than 1,000 yards and run for more than 2,000 yards. They can run on anyone.

Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen should have a field deal against a Nevada pass defense that was the worst in I-A last year. Plus the Wolf Pack are 1-8 against BCS conference teams the past four years.

Florida Atlantic at No. 24 Nebraska (-21.5, 61)

FAU probably has the better QB in Rusty Smith, the Sun Belt’s all-time leading passer. Nebraska QB Zac Lee has attempted two passes.

Nebraska’s running attack, even without the now-departed Quentin Castille (dismissed from team), should roll over an FAU defense that is undersized and with just three starters back.

No. 8 Mississippi at Memphis (+17, 54.5)

Arkelon Hall is back at quarterback for Memphis after throwing for 2,275 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, and running back Curtis Steels also returns after rushing for 1,223 yards and seven touchdowns last season. The Tigers will score points.

How will the Rebels handle being the hunted for once? They are ranked in the Top 10 entering the season for the first time since 1970. Ole Miss did beat Memphis by 17 in last year’s opener but has some size problems in the secondary against the big Tiger receivers.

Miami at No. 18 Florida State (-6.5, 47.5)

The Canes won’t have projected starting defensive end Eric Moncour, and the UM D-Line was trashed last season by 310 FSU rushing yards.

FSU is focusing on UM receiver/returner Travis Benjamin, who put up 274 yards of total offense and two touchdowns in last year's game. The Noles are very inexperienced at receiver and that’s the main question mark on offense.

PICKENS-POKES
By SportsPic

Oklahoma Cowboys return eight starters from last years prolific (41 PPG) and well balanced offense (3,149 PY, 3,191 RY) including QB Zac Robinson, WR Dez Bryant, RB Kendall Hunter the most explosive triple-threat in college football who combined for 38 TD’s in 2008. Meanwhile, Georgia losing its top two offensive players QB Matthew Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno could be short of firepower with QB Joe Cox and sophomore RB Richard Samuel slated to replace the duo. Remembering a disastrous encounter with DAWGS in 2007 (35-14) coach Mike Gundy will have his group of Cowboys primed. The experience POKES possess at the skill positions has sportsbooks tagging the squad -5.5 point favorites over DAWGS a money burning 4-7-1 ATS last year. Total players will be interested to know the 'Over' is a solid 17-5 in Cowboys last twenty-two as a home favorite, 9-2 'Over' last eleven at home with the total set between 56.4 - 63 and Bulldogs are 5-0 'Over' as Underdogs.

College Football Weekly Predictions: Week 1
by Alan Matthews

This is the first of a weekly predictions article here on Doc’s (look for it normally on Tuesday or Wednesday), where I will give you a few NCAA football games a week with free picks on sides and/or the totals. I’m also going to try and give you an idea of what way the general public is leaning and why.

Nevada at Notre Dame, Saturday, 3:30 p.m.

Current line: Irish -14.5 (61). This opened as 13.5 at most books, but it has moved toward the Fighting Irish from every opening number

Who the public likes: Approximately 61 percent are betting Notre Dame as of this writing. It hasn’t dipped below 50 percent all week

For what it’s worth, I couldn’t disagree more with the public on this one. Nevada was one of the nation’s best rushing teams last year, and QB Colin Kaepernick, the 2008 WAC offensive player of the year, is back. In 2008, he became the first player in NCAA history to pass for 2,500 yards and rush for 1,000 in a season, combining for 39 touchdowns.

Also back is RB Vai Taua, who had 1,567 on the ground last year, and RB Luke Lippincott, who had 1,420 on the ground in 2007 before missing all of last season. The Wolf Pack could challenge Navy’s four-year dominance as the nation’s leading rushing team.

However, Nevada is just 1-8 against BCS teams the past four years and had the worst pass defense in the country last year. If Irish QB Jimmy Clausen is playing anything like who he did in the Hawaii Bowl, then the Irish could score 38 points. Still, I like Nevada to control the clock and cover. I also believe this game goes under.

Georgia at Oklahoma State, Saturday, 3:30 p.m.

Current line: Cowboys -5 (61.5). The side opened at six at most books, while the total also has dropped a shade.

Who the public likes: Approximately 53 percent are betting on Oklahoma State, but it was at nearly 60 percent a week ago.

My guess is the late public action flowed a bit toward Georgia because the fact the Cowboys lost a starting linebacker to injury and starting tight end to a dismissal this week. But the biggest factor may have been what turned out to be a bogus Internet report that Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson might not play. I wouldn’t touch this game if that were the case. But otherwise, the Cowboys have an offensive threesome perhaps unmatched in college football in Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant. The only edge you would give Georgia here would be on its offensive line against the Cowboys’ defensive front. But will Joe Cox be able to make OSU pay? Plus, Dawgs top running back Caleb King isn’t making the trip due to an injury. So take OSU give the points.

Mississippi at Memphis, Sunday, 3:30 p.m.

Current line: Ole Miss -17 (54.5). This line opened at 17 and moved nearly a point toward the Tigers before coming back to 17.

Who the public likes: 78 percent favor the Rebels.

Mississippi is clearly the national chic pick to have a breakout year, and the Rebels ended last year on a major roll. But 17 points better than Memphis? That was the difference between these two last year, with the Rebs winning, 41-24, at home. But I believe the Tigers are much better than last year. They bring back most of their offense, including QB Arkelon Hall, who completed 57 percent of his passes in 2008 for 2,275 yards and 12 TDs. And running back Curtis Steele, last year’s C-USA newcomer of the year, is also back after totaling 1,223 yards on the ground.
Memphis’ two top receivers, Carlos Singleton and Duke Calhoun, are huge and should be able to grab many a jump ball over a tiny Ole Miss secondary.

It is a tad concerning that the Tigers have to replace four offensive line starters and that the Rebel D-Line is outstanding. But Ole Miss star defensive end Greg Hardy reportedly won’t start as he still heals from that summer car accident. Hardy is supposed to play significant snaps, but not starting arguably the best defensive end in the country sends up warnings signs to me. So take the Tigers and the 17 points.

I’ll keep track of how I do all season so you can decide for yourself whether I am full of it or not! But here’s to a successful and profitable college season.

DOCSPORTS.COM

CFB Streaks & Notes
By SportsPic

Missouri vs Illinois September

Defensively Illinois is not a strong group giving up a whopping 350.3 yards/game with the pass 'D' surrendering 197.4 of those yards. Fighting Illini laying a TD are in a tough spot vs a Misou squad that had the 8th ranked total offense (484.1) including 330.4 passing yards notching 42.2 PPG. Fighting Illini are 0-7 ATS last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, 0-4 ATS last four vs Misou who enter a cash grabbing 8-2 ATS last 10 non-conference games.

Brigham Young vs Oklahoma

BYU's trademark high scoring offense should be storming again with key players QB Max Hall (3955 PY, 35 TD), Dennis Pitta (1081 REC, 6 TD) and Harvey Unga (1131 RUSH, 11 TD) returning. Not to be messed with in Provo (18-0, 10-5-1 ATS) the past three years, Cougars though are not to be trusted on the highway as they start the campaign 8-4 (4-8 ATS) the past two seasons away including a cash draining 1-5 against-the-oddsmaker last year. Opening +21.5 BYU's tempting, but keep in mind Cougars are 0-6 ATS in non-conference road games, 1-5 ATS as non-conference dogs of 7 or more while Sooners are a cash stuffing 10-2 ATS last twelve as a favorites, 6-1 ATS laying 21 or more, 7-1 ATS in September, 7-2 ATS vs non-conference opponents.

Alabama vs Virginia Tech

Nick Saban and his Tide coming off an undefeated regular season before being flattened by Florida in the SEC Title game, then stunned by Utah in the Sugar Bowl have a slew of new faces on offense but the stoud defense that allowed 263.8 total yards, a punny 14.3 PPG basically remains the same. Breaking in new pivot Geg McElroy with only 20 passing attempts in his college career against the always tough Hokie defense (279.5 yards, 16.7 PPG) and a squad aiming for three conference titles in-a-row the Tide will be tested. Laying a touchdown, Tide are in dangerous territory, Virginia Tech enters 10-2 ATS as underdogs L5Y's, 17-6 ATS in September road games

Top Saturday Games
By Brobury Sports

College football got underway on Thursday night and there are several can’t-miss games on Saturday.

#13 Georgia at #9 Oklahoma State – 3:30 pm ET

Georgia is a 4.5-point underdog with an Over/Under of 61 points.

Georgia was costly to bettors last year finishing 2-7 ATS. They did win and cover their bowl game against Michigan State. Oklahoma State was 8-0 ATS to begin last year, but they finished 0-4 ATS.

Georgia was 10-3 straight-up last season but that was a disappointment with quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Knowshon Moreno on the squad. 5th year senior, Joe Cox will take the snaps under center and the defense returns six starters from a mediocre group.

Oklahoma State (9-4 straight-up last year) went into Georgia two years ago to kickoff their season and lost 35-14.

The Cowboys are the better team on paper this year with one of the best offenses in the country. Quarterback Zac Robinson and running back Kendall Hunter will lead the way, but the defense will determine how far they’ll go.

# 20 Brigham Young vs. #3 Oklahoma – 7 pm ET

Oklahoma is a big 22-point favorite with an Over/Under of 66.5 points.

This game will be played at the Dallas Cowboys’ stadium in Arlington, Texas. That’s still a huge home advantage for the neighboring state Sooners.

Oklahoma was 12-1 straight-up (10-2 ATS) before losing to Florida for the national championship. Heisman quarterback, Sam Bradford came back this year in somewhat of a surprise and the offense will still be great even with o-line and receiver losses.

Note that star tight end Jermaine Gresham will miss this game with a knee injury.

BYU went 10-3 last year but just 3-9 ATS. Quarterback Max Hall is a Heisman candidate, but they lost several offensive linemen and receiving targets as well. The Cougars have lost 12 straight games (straight-up) to ranked non-conference opponents.

# 5 Alabama vs. #7 Virginia Tech – 8 pm ET

Alabama is a 6.5-point favorite with an Over/Under of 38 points.

This is the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game being played in the Georgia Dome. That’s the site where Alabama lost the SEC championship game to Florida last year.

Alabama played great in their two other visits to the Georgia Dome last year. They crushed then 9th ranked Clemson, 34-10 in the first Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game. Bama then beat Georgia in their home stadium, 41-30 as 6.5-point dogs.

Virginia Tech lost running back Darren Evans for the year, but Coach Frank Beamer has a dual passing/running threat in quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The Hokies are always very competitive on defense and special teams and this year is no exception.

Top Games

Michigan covered just four of last 17 non-league games; they're 10-18 as home favorite since 2004 and are coming off LY's 3-9 nightmare season, in addition to last week's issue about them violating workout limitations. Wolverines have whole OL back but are expected to play three QBs in this game. Western Michigan has a senior QBs with 30 career starts.

UConn, Ohio U both have inexperienced QBs and three starters back on OL. Huskies covered eight of last 11 as road favorite, are 32-18 against spread since '02. Bobcats covered six of last nine as home dog, are 5-0-1 vs spread in non-MAC games last two years. Underdogs are 16-6 vs the spread in UConn road games since 2004.

Notre Dame is 7-13 vs spread as home favorite under Weis; they've got Michigan next, but Nevada is dangerous foe, with a mobile QB who has 26 career starts. Wolf Pack is 5-4 vs spread in last nine games as dog on road. Irish have four starters and eight of top 10 OL guys back; their QB has 22 starts, but weight of expectations is very heacy on this team.

Oklahoma State lost 35-14 at Georgia in '07 (+6.5), but OSU is 16-6 in last 22 tries as home favorite, 8-3 vs spread in last 11 non-Big 12 games. Georgia won 30 of its last 34 road games (10-2 vs ranked foes)- they are 7-2 vs spread as road dog under Richt, and will try to run ball behind OL with all five starters back (99 returning starts). Biggest problem for UGa is they have an inexperienced, albeit senior QB.

Oklahoma is 20-8 vs spread in last 28 tries as a favorite; this game in on "neutral" field at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, which will be loaded with Sooner red. BYU has senior QB with 26 career starts, but only one OL starter back. Sooners also lost four starters on OL; their junior QB has 28 starts and a Heisman Trophy. BYU 2-6 in last eight non-league tilts.

Missouri suffered severe graduation losses, has new QB, and three sophs starting on OL; they've beaten rival Illinois last four years (favorite 4-0 vs spread), scoring 92 points in last two meetings. Illini are 1-9 vs spread in last ten non-league games, 0-7 on neutral fields, but they have a senior QB with 22 career starts and seven other starters back on offense.

Wake Forest hammered Baylor 41-13 in Waco LY, outgaining Bears by 130 yards with a +3 turnover ratio; Deacons have all five starters back on OL, with four senior starters and a senior QB with 36 career starts, but they're just 8-18 vs spread as home favorite under Grobe. Baylor has eight of top 10 back on OL and a terrific soph QB- they're 10-6 against spread in their last 16 non-league games.

Syracuse starting QB Paulus is back in his hometown after playing last four years for Duke's basketball team; he was once highly regarded as a QB prospect. Orange covered three of its last 12 home games. Gophers have a very good QB, nine starters back on offense, eight on defense- they're 11-5 against the spread in last 16 games as road favorite.

Alabama has nine starters back on defense but only four on offense; they are breaking in new QB; Tide was 7-3 as favorite LY after being 5-17 in that role the previous three seasons. Virginia Tech has 90 returning starts on OL (three starters back) and mobile junior QB with 15 career starts. Hokies are just 3-8-1 vs spread in last twelve non-ACC games.

Texas-El Paso (+3) lost 42-17 in Buffalo LY, getting outrushed 253-67, but Bulls graduated their QB and three starters on OL, accounting for 96 starts- they're 14-5 as a road underdog under Gill. Miners have nine of top 10 linemen back from LY (96 starts back) and a mobile QB with 24 career starts. UTEP covered just four of its last fourteen as home fave.

LSU covered 17 of last 25 non-SEC games; long road trip for them, but Washington went winless LY, has new coach, 18 starters back, terrific QB who was one of many injured Huskies LY. Tigers are just 4-8-1 vs spread in last 13 road games, but they've got an experienced OL with 79 starts back, protecting young QB (3rd start). Washington is 9-14 vs the spread in its last 23 games as a home underdog.

Other games

-- Navy covered 19 of its last 26 as a road underdog. Ohio State plays USC next week; they're 4-6-1 in last 11 tries as double digit favorite.

-- Penn State covered 10 of last 13 as double digit favorite., but all five of their OL starters from LY are gone. Akron is 6-8-1 as a road dog.

-- Kentucky covered six of its last eight non-league games. Miami, O. is 7-5 vs spread in its last 12 games as a road dog- they've got new coach.

-- Army (-1) beat Eastern Michigan 17-13 LY, running ball for 341 yds. EMU has senior QB with 34 career starts. Army is 16-12 as road dog.

-- Wisconsin has new QB and no senior starters on OL; they're 8-6 as a home fave under Bielema. No. Illinois is 15-9 in last 24 tries as road dog.

-- Two new coaches in Toledo-Purdue game; Rockets have a senior QB with 27 career starts and OL with 96 starts back. Purdue is 5-3 as home favorite the last two seasons.

-- Stanford won three of last four visits to Washington State; they ran ball for 344 yards in 58-0 win vs Wazzu LY. Coogs are 10-7 in last 17 tries as home underdog.

-- Auburn covered eight of last 24 when favored, seven of 18 non-SEC games. Louisiana Tech is 5-22 vs spread in its last 27 games as road dog.

-- Texas A&M (-3) won 28-22 at New Mexico LY, Lobos outrushed the Aggies 216-92. A&M covered just eight of last 26 non-Big 12 contests. New Mexico is 18-11 vs spread in last 29 games as road dog.

-- Idaho won four of last five vs New Mexico State; average total in their last two visits here is 75.5. Underdogs are 28-16 vs spread in NM State's home games this decade.

-- Cal (-14) got behind quickly, lost 35-27 at Maryland LY; Cal is 12-6 vs spread in last 18 games as home favorite. Terps lost 116 starts from LY's OL, so they're very young up front.

-- USC has had lot of injuries this summer; they're 27-14 as a home fave, 24-8 in non-league games. San Jose State is 8-13 as road dog. Trojans are off to Ohio State next week, so definite look-ahead chance here.

-- Arizona was 4-1 as home favorite LY, after covering three of previous 17; they have two 3-year starters on OL, but a new QB. Central Mich. has a terrific senior QB with 26 career starts; they're 10-8 as road dog.

-- UCLA covered 14 of last 20 as home favorite; they won last couple games vs San Diego State, 33-10/44-21. Aztecs have new coach; they're 13-18 as a road underdog since 2003.

-- Florida Atlantic has senior QB (17 starts) three senior starters on OL, but only three starters back on defense. Nebraska is 11-15 vs spread in last 26 games as a home favorite.

-- Middle Tennessee has nine coaches with some tie to Clemson, so big game for their staff; Blue Raiders has 10 starters back on offense, but an inexperienced QB (9th start). Clemson is 5-7 as double digit favorite.

-- Texas covered 16 of last 24 as home favorite; their QB has made 39 starts, their OL 91 starts. UL-Monroe is 16-8 last 24 tries as road dog.

-- Tennessee has UCLA/Florida up next, first game for a new coaching staff with lot of pressure on it- they covered one of last four when fave of 10+ points. Western Kentucky is breaking in a new QB.

Prime-Time Action
By Brian Edwards

Whether pressing or chasing, gamblers are sure to be tuned in for a trio of televised games under the lights, including a pair of late-night contests on the West coast.

Let’s start with Alabama vs. Va. Tech at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. The Crimson Tide started the 2008 campaign at the same venue and dominated Clemson by a 34-10 count as a 4 ½-point underdog. This time around, Nick Saban’s team is favored by 6 1/2 at most betting shops.

The total for ‘over/under’ wagers is 37. Bettors can take the Hokies to win outright for a plus-220 return (risk $100 to win $220).

Alabama is going to be all about its dominant defense, a unit that returns nine starters, including a pair of All-Americans in defensive tackle Terrance Cody and linebacker Rolando McClain. The status of starting DE Brandon Deadrick (36 tackles, four sacks in 2008), who was shot in the arm in an attempted robbery earlier this week, was unclear (but promising for Tide fans) as of Friday night. In terms of gunshot wounds, the injury was considered minor and Deadrick actually returned to practice on Thursday and has been cleared to play.

Greg McElroy is the incumbent QB after John Parker Wilson occupied this pressure-cooker position in Tuscaloosa. He completed 8-of-11 passes for 123 yards with one touchdown and one interception in limited playing time.

McElroy will have the benefit of one of the nation’s premier wide receivers in Julio Jones, who had a team-high 58 receptions and 924 yards as a true freshman. RB Glen Coffee (1,383 rushing yards and 10 TDs in ‘08) is gone after bolting a year early for the NFL, but it says here that the Tide will be just fine at this position.

As a true freshman, Mark Ingram rushed for 728 yards and a team-high 12 TDs. Terry Grant is also back in the mix after being the odd man out in 2008. Grant has more than 1,000 career yards and a 4.6 yards-per-carry average.

Va. Tech’s situation at RB isn’t quite as promising. The Hokies suffered a monster blow a few weeks ago when sophomore Darren Evans tore his ACL and was lost for the season. Evans rushed for 1,265 yards and 11 TDs last season.

After splitting time with Sean Glennon the last two years, junior QB Tyrod Taylor now has the job all to himself. Taylor is a poor man’s version of Michael Vick in terms of being able to scramble and elude pressure. But his throwing accuracy is a major question mark, as evidenced by his abysmal 2/7 touchdown-interception ratio in ’08.

Since 2000, the Hokies have thrived in underdog situations. They are 10-5 against the spread during that span. As for ‘Bama, it is 8-9 ATS in ‘chalk’ situations on Saban’s watch.

These schools last met at the 1998 Music City Bowl with the Hokies spanking ‘Bama by a 38-7 count. ABC will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

At 10:00 p.m. Eastern in Berkley on ESPN2, California will be out to avenge a 35-27 loss at Maryland as a 14-point road favorite last year. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Bears as 17-point favorites, but this number was quickly adjusted to 21 where it remained as of Friday night.

The total is 51 at most spots. The Las Vegas Hilton has the Terrapins at 10/1 odds to win outright. And before dismissing such a notion, let’s examine recent double-digit underdog spots for Ralph Friedgen’s program.

Maryland is 5-1 ATS in its last six such situations, including four outright wins since 2006. The Terps won as double-digit ‘dogs at Clemson in 2006 and 2008. We mentioned last year’s win over Cal and they also captured a 34-24 win at Rutgers as 18 ½-point puppies in 2007.

When you go on the road for an opener, you feel a lot better about your chances when you have a seasoned QB and a reliable RB. Friedgen has both in Chris Turner (5-1 in six career starts against top-25 foes) and Da’Rel Scott, who rushed for 1,133 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.4 YPC in ’08.

With that said, we should also note that the Terps return just five starters on offense and four on defense. They finished 8-5 SU and 6-6 ATS last season, beating Nevada 42-35 in the Humanitarian Bowl on the smurf turf in Boise.

California finished 9-4 both SU and ATS in ’08 and it brings back most of its nucleus. Kevin Riley no longer has to compete with Nate Longshore for the starting QB spot. It is Riley’s alone after he posted a 14/6 TD-INT ratio as a sophomore last season.

Jeff Tedford might have the best RB in the country (personally, I’d go with Oregon State’s Jacquizz Rodgers) in Jahvid Best, who ran for 1,580 yards and 15 TDs. Best of all, Best averaged an incredible 8.1 YPC.

The Bears had to play Maryland in College Park at noon Eastern, which is obviously very early in the a.m. back out West. In turn, they were sluggish early and trailed by a 21-3 count early in the second quarter. By the time Cal woke up, it didn’t quite have enough to rally for the victory and came up one possession short.

We’ll see if revenge is served or if Maryland remains dynamite as a double-digit underdog.

Washington went winless, lost its starting QB to a season-ending injury and saw its head coach (Ty Willingham) dismissed in ’08. But that debacle is in the rearview mirror and Steve Sarkisian is the new head coach after serving as USC’s offensive coordinator.

Most notably, Jake Locker is back and his shoulder is healthy. And that’s bad news for the rest of the Pac 10 and could spell trouble for Les Miles and Co. As a redshirt freshman in ’07, Locker threw for 2,062 yards and ran for 986 in Tim-Tebow-like fashion. But a shoulder injury ended his ’08 campaign less than a month into the year.

LSU was a major disappointment in its attempt to defend the national title. The Tigers went 8-5 SU and were an atrocious 3-9 versus the number. They lost by 30 at Florida and took double-digit defeats from Georgia and Ole Miss at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. The most painful loss came against Alabama in overtime when Saban made his return to Death Valley.

LSU completely outplayed the Tide in every facet of that contest, only to lose because Jarrett Lee couldn’t take care of the football. Jordan Jefferson eventually replaced Lee and was instrumental in a comeback win over Troy and a blowout victory over Ga. Tech in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

The Bayou Bengals bring back seven starters on each side of the ball. None of those players are more important than RB Charles Scott, a bruising between-the-tackles runner who found the end zone 18 times on the ground in ’08. Scott averaged 5.4 YPC while sharing the load with Keiland Williams and Richard Murphy, both whom are also back in the mix.

Jefferson will have his favorite target back. That would be Brandon LaFell, who had 63 receptions for 929 yards and eight TDs despite getting shaky QB play all year long. And let’s not forget about Trindon Holliday, one of the nation’s fastest players who will have a major impact on special teams.

In Miles’ first game as head coach at LSU in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the Tigers had to go out West (at the last minute) to play Arizona St. in their season opener. They trailed most of the night only to rally for a 35-31 comeback win as one-point road underdogs. As a double-digit road favorite during Miles’ tenure, LSU is 4-2 ATS.

Most books have the Tigers as 18-point favorites with a total of 53.

ESPN will have this telecast at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Maryland has won five consecutive season openers, but it is just 6-16 when it plays its lid-lifter on the road.

According to GameCockCentral.com, South Carolina junior LB Rodney Paulk suffered torn knee ligaments in Thursday’s win at N.C. St. and it is feared that he’s out for the season (pending an MRI back in Columbia).

Bowling Green’s Freddie Barnes had 15 receptions for 157 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Falcons to a 31-14 win over Troy as seven-point home underdogs. Troy QB Levi Jones threw almost as many interceptions against BG (two) as he threw in all of 2009 (three). The Falcons scored 31 unanswered points after falling behind 14-0 in the successful debut of Dave Clawson, who served as Tennessee’s offensive coordinator in last year’s debacle of a campaign that led to Phillip Fulmer’s ouster.

vegasinsider.com

Can the Hokies surprise Alabama?
By Sportsbook.com

Bet Virginia Tech at Alabama

The ABC Saturday night college football schedule starts out with a doozy of a game between Alabama and Virginia Tech, a pair of top 10 teams in most polls. The Crimson Tide come off their best season in many years, as they started 12-0 in 2008 before dropping their final two games. They are a 6-point favorite over a Hokies’ team that is expected to reign over the ACC in ’09. Nearly two-thirds of bettors at Sportsbook.com like ‘Bama’s chances of getting it done on the number.

Alabama played in the SEC title game and made a BCS bowl game, are greater things on the horizon for Nick Saban’s (19-8, 12-13-1 ATS) third year in Tuscaloosa? It depends and the answer won’t really be known until later in the season. Where the tricky part is the offense, junior Greg McElroy has waited his turn and is now the big man on campus for the Crimson Tide. McElroy has professed to be ready and sophomore sensation Julio Jones will be one of his favorite targets to pass to. The offensive line has to be reworked with three outstanding starters gone and running back Glen Coffee leaving early. On defense, there are zero question marks with nine starters back and improving depth in support. All-American nose tackle Terrance “Mount” Cody is poised for a colossal campaign and is reportedly leaner and meaner than ever. Rolando McClain is a headache at linebacker and the secondary has aggressive ball-hawks. The Tide have won last five of six as favorites.

Does it seem possible that Virginia Tech was ever bad under coach Frank Beamer? You have to go back to 1992 to find the last losing season in Blacksburg. The Hokies have won 10 or more games eight times in the last decade including five in a row (38-24-1 ATS). With 14 starters back in the fold, this opening game could determine if Virginia Tech is national contender or one of the best in the ACC. Junior Tyrod Taylor in the undisputed leader of the offense. He’s worked diligently to become better passer and expects to see the results. With Darren Evans out with an ACL tear an unproven yet versatile running core will have to step up, running behind an offensive line that came into its own late last season.

Jason Worilds might be just 6’2 240 pound defensive end; however he’s up field before the tackle is even out of his stance pressuring the quarterback, leading another stern Hokies defense.

The Hokies are 12-4 ATS in their first road game of the season.

Odds-makers have made their case about this matchup. Bama opened as a six-point choice despite a new quarterback and just four returning offensive starters. That speaks volumes about what they think about the difference between SEC and ACC. This is a special opening matchup and Virginia Tech is 17-6 ATS in September road encounters. The Tide is 16-1 SU in opening tilts since 1992, but just 5-10 ATS during that time.

For all of your college lines, stats and handicapping tools, log onto Sportsbook.com now.

Bet Virginia Tech at Alabama

Nevada at (23) Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish, with coach Charlie Weis facing a critical season if he hopes to remain on the job, open the 2009 campaign with a home contest against Nevada.

Notre Dame went 7-6 SU and ATS last year, barely managing to reach a bowl game after losing its last two regular-season games – a 24-23 home upset as a 19½-point home chalk against lowly Syracuse, followed by a 38-3 whitewashing as an overwhelming 33½-point underdog at Southern Cal. The Irish managed to finish on a high note, with a 49-21 rout of Hawaii as a 2½-point favorite in the Hawaii Bowl, the school’s first postseason win in 15 years.

The Irish have junior QB Jimmy Clausen returning off a season in which he completed 60.9 percent of his passes for 3,174 yards, with 25 TDs and 17 INTs. WR Golden Tate had 1,080 receiving yards and a team-leading 11 TDs.

Nevada also went 7-6 SU but was just 5-7 ATS in 2008, failing to cover in its last three games (1-2 SU), including a 42-35 loss to Maryland as a 2½-point chalk in the Humanitarian Bowl. Dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick returns after throwing for 2,479 yards and rushing for another 1,103 last year, accounting for 35 TDs (19 passing, 16 rushing) while throwing just five INTs.

The Irish have cashed in five of their last seven as a favorite, but they are on ATS slides of 1-5 in season openers, 6-13 at home, 3-7 in September and 2-9 laying more than 10 points, and Weis’ troops are 1-6 ATS as a double-digit home chalk since 2006. The Wolf Pack haven’t been much better from a wagering perspective, carrying negative ATS streaks of 1-4 in non-conference play, 1-4 as a pup, 3-8 on the highway and 5-11 as a road ‘dog of more than 10. Nevada is also just 4-9 ATS its last 13 non-conference road contests.

The over is 4-0-1 in Notre Dame’s last five home games, and the over for Nevada is on rolls of 4-0 overall, 5-2 on the road and 6-0 when the Pack are a road ‘dog of more than 10 points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

(13) Georgia at (9) Oklahoma State

A battle between the Southeastern Conference and the Big 12 takes place in Stillwater when the Cowboys play host to Georgia.

Oklahoma State is coming off a solid season, going 9-4 SU and 8-4 ATS in 2008. However, the Pokes lost their last two games SU and ATS, falling to archrival Oklahoma 61-41 as a 10-point home pup, then losing 42-31 to Oregon as a one-point underdog in the Holiday Bowl. The Cowboys have three major offensive threats back, in QB Zac Robinson (3,068 passing yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTs), RB Kendall Hunter (1,555 rushing yards, 16 TDs) and wideout Dez Bryant (87 catches, 1,482 yards, 19 TDs). Robinson, who completed 65 percent of his passes in 2008, also rushed for 561 yards and eight TDs.

Georgia went 10-3 SU but just 4-7-1 ATS in 2008, failing to cash in its final four regular-season games before beating Michigan State 24-12 as a nine-point favorite in the Capital One Bowl on New Year’s Day. The Bulldogs, who entered last year as the top-ranked team in the nation, lost star QB Matt Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno, who were both taken in the first round of the NFL draft, with Stafford going No. 1 overall. But coach Mark Richt has an experienced, if not tested, QB in redshirt senior Joe Cox.

These two teams met two years ago in the season opener in Athens, Ga., with the Bulldogs rolling to a 35-14 victory as a 6½-point favorite.

After cashing in their first eight games last year, the Cowboys finished on an 0-4 ATS skid (1-3 SU). However, they carry positive pointspread streaks of 6-2 at home, 6-0 as a home chalk (5-0 last year) and 41-20-2 overall as a favorite. The Bulldogs, despite ending 2008 on a 1-4 ATS slide, are on spread-covering streaks of 5-1 outside the SEC and 7-1 as a road pup (4-0 last four). They are also 15-8 ATS in their last 23 roadies overall, and they are on an 18-3 SU tear on the highway.

The under is 23-8 in Georgia’s last 31 September starts, but the over is on tears of 5-0 with the Bulldogs getting points, 29-9 with Oklahoma State at home and 17-5 with the Cowboys as a home chalk.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE

San Jose State at (4) USC

Perennial national championship contender Southern Cal opens the 2009 campaign at the Los Angeles Coliseum against the Spartans.

USC, a double-digit favorite in every game last season, went 12-1 SU but a more middling 7-6 ATS, capping it off with a 38-24 Rose Bowl victory over Penn State as a 10-point chalk. The Trojans enter this year on a 10-game SU win streak (5-5 ATS) following their shocking 27-21 road loss to Oregon State as a whopping 24-point favorite. With QB Mark Sanchez darting to the NFL, Pete Carroll has opted to start true freshman Matt Barkley under center.

San Jose State went 6-6 SU and 5-6 ATS last year, limping to the finish line by losing four of its last five SU and failing to cash in all five contests after opening the season 5-2 SU (5-1 ATS). The Spartans have senior QB Kyle Reed returning, though he had a nondescript junior campaign, completing 63.7 percent of his passes but netting just 1,537 yards, with nine TDs against six INTs.

The Trojans are on ATS upticks of 23-6 outside the Pac-10, 35-17 at the Coliseum and 8-2 in non-conference home games, and Carroll’s troops went 3-1 ATS last year as a chalk of 30 or more. USC has also won 11 straight season openers (7-4 ATS). The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five September starts and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference contests, but along with their current 0-5 ATS skid, they are on pointspread declines of 1-4 as a pup and 2-6 catching more than 10 points on the road.

The under for USC is on stretches of 17-6-1 overall, 16-5-1 at home, 4-0 in September and 21-8-1 as a favorite. Likewise, the under for San Jose State is on runs of 23-8-1 overall, 8-1 with the Spartans as a road pup and 6-2 in non-conference play.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Missouri vs. Illinois
(at St. Louis)

Missouri and the Fighting Illini make the trek to the Edward Jones Dome for the third straight year for a Big 12-Big Ten battle between border rivals.

Missouri went 10-4 SU but just 5-8 ATS in the 2008 campaign, going 2-7 ATS in its final nine games, including pointspread setbacks in its last three contests (1-2 SU). The Tigers, who won the Big 12 North, finished the season with a 30-23 overtime victory against Northwestern as a heavy 14-point favorite in the Alamo Bowl. Missouri lost star QB Chase Daniel (4,335 passing yards, 37 TDs, 15 INTs) and wideout Jeremy Maclin (95 catches, 1,221 yards, 12 TDs) from that squad. Sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert will take the reins.

Illinois lost its last three games SU and ATS to finish 5-7 SU and 4-7 ATS in coach Ron Zook’s fourth season, including a pair of upset losses to Western Michigan (23-17 as a 7½-point home chalk) and Northwestern (27-10 as a three-point favorite) to end the season. Mobile senior QB Juice Williams (3,173 passing yards, 22 TD passes; 719 rushing yards, 5 TDs) returns to lead the Illini’s explosive offense.

Missouri is on a 4-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, including a 52-42 win in a shootout in St. Louis last year, as the Tigers barely covered the 9½-point spread.

Under coach Gary Pinkel, the Tigers are on a 10-3 ATS tear in non-conference action, and they are on further spread-covering runs of 5-0 on turf, 6-1 in September and 4-1 against the Big Ten. The Illini have covered four of their last five September starts but are otherwise in pointspread ruts of 1-4 overall, 0-5 outside the Big Ten, 0-4 against the Big 12 and 0-4 at neutral sites.

The over for Missouri is on streaks of 26-10 as an underdog, 6-0 on turf and 5-1 in September, and the over for Illinois is on upswings of 5-1 on turf and 13-6 in September. Finally, the past two meetings in this rivalry soared over the posted price, as the two teams combined for 74 points in 2007 before last year’s 94-point outburst.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI

(20) BYU vs. (3) Oklahoma
(at Dallas)

The Sooners begin their quest for a return trip to the BCS championship game as they travel to the sparkling new Cowboys Stadium in Dallas to take on Brigham Young.

Oklahoma is coming off a 12-2 SU and 10-3 ATS effort, but the season ended on a sour note with a 24-14 loss to Florida as a 4½-point ‘dog in the national title game Jan. 8 in Miami. That loss snapped a 7-0 SU (6-1 ATS) roll that got the Sooners into the BCS final. Star QB Sam Bradford, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, returns after completing 67.9 percent of his passes last year for 4,719 yards with a whopping 50 TDs against just eight INTs. The Sooners averaged 51.1 points per game in 2008.

BYU went 10-3 SU last year but wasn’t nearly as successful at the betting window, with a 3-9 ATS mark. The Cougars covered just once in their last nine games and ended the year with a 31-21 Las Vegas Bowl loss to Arizona as a three-point underdog. QB Max Hall is coming off a big junior season, completing 69.2 percent of his passes for 3,955 yards with 35 TDs and 14 INTs.

Along with their current 6-1 ATS run, the Sooners are on spread-covering sprees of 6-0 as a chalk, 9-1 in September and 7-2 in non-conference play, and Bob Stoops’ troops are 9-0 ATS in their last nine regular-season tilts outside the Big 12. Oklahoma is also 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games laying double digits, including 4-0 ATS as a double-digit chalk away from Norman.

The Cougars are on ATS skids of 1-6 outside the Mountain West and 1-4 as an underdog, though they’ve gone 4-1 ATS in their last five September games.

The over for Oklahoma is on streaks of 12-2 overall, 10-3 in non-conference play and 8-3 in September, and four of BYU’s last five games in 2008 topped the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA and OVER

(7) Virginia Tech vs. (5) Alabama
(at Atlanta)

Perhaps the biggest game of opening weekend pits the Crimson Tide against Virginia Tech in a neutral-site, non-conference clash at the Georgia Dome.

Alabama rolled up wins in its first 12 games last year (9-3 ATS) in claiming the SEC West title, but finished the year by losing its last two games SU and ATS. The Tide fell to eventual national champion Florida 31-20 as a 10-point pup in the SEC title game, then got upset by unbeaten Utah in the Sugar Bowl, losing 31-17 as a 9½-point favorite.

Alabama lost QB John Parker Wilson (2,096 passing yards, 9 TDs, 6 INTs), but the bigger loss is probably RB Glen Coffee (1,342 yards, 10 TDs, 6.1 ypc). QB Greg McElroy, with just 20 collegiate passing attempts, moves into the starting role for the Tide, and RB Mark Ingram (747 yards, 12 TDs, 7.7 ypc) also returns.

Virginia Tech is coming off a 10-4 campaign (6-7 ATS), winning their last four games (2-2 ATS). The Hokies capped the regular season with a 30-12 rout of Boston College as a one-point chalk in the ACC title game in Tampa, Fla., then dropped Cincinnati 20-7 as a 2½-point pup in the Orange Bowl.

QB Tyrod Taylor returns to lead Va-Tech after rushing for 738 yards and seven scores, while throwing for another 896 yards (2 TDs, 6 INTs). However, leading rusher Darren Evans (1,113 yards, 10 TDs, 4.3 ypc) tore his left ACL in practice last month and is out for the year.

The Crimson Tide cashed in their first five roadies last year before the two-game skid to end the season, and Alabama is on a 5-1 ATS run as a chalk. The Hokies are on a 10-3 ATS roll as an underdog, but they are on spread-covering skids of 2-8 outside the ACC and 2-7 in September.

The over has hit in eight of Alabama’s last 11 September games, but the under is on stretches of 7-2 overall for the Tide, 6-2 with ‘Bama favored, 5-1 overall for Va-Tech and 4-1 for the Hokies in September.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Maryland at (12) California

Two teams coming off winning bowl appearances get together for the second straight year, this time at Memorial Stadium where the Golden Bears will host Maryland.

California is coming off a 9-4 SU and ATS effort, including a 24-17 victory over Miami, Fla., in the Emerald Bowl, though it failed to cover as a healthy 10-point chalk after ending the regular season on a 5-1 ATS run (4-2 SU). QB Kevin Riley (1,345 yards passing, 14 TDs, 6 INTs) took the majority of the snaps last year, though the departed Nate Longshore also saw a lot of action.

The key for the Bears, though, is the return of standout RB Jahvid Best, who piled up 1,409 rushing yards and 13 TDs, averaging a whopping 8.1 ypc. Shane Vereen, Cal’s second leading rusher last year with 678 yards (5.1 ypc), also returns.

Maryland fended off Nevada in a high-scoring Humanitarian Bowl 42-35 as a 2½-point pup last December, finishing the year 8-5 SU (6-6 ATS), though it cashed in just two of its last six games. QB Chris Turner (2,518 passing yards, 13 TDs, 11 INTs) is back for his third year as a starter, and top RBs Da’Rel Scott (980 yards, 6 TDs, 5.0 ypc) and Davin Meggett (418 yards, 4 TDs, 5.6 ypc) also return for the Terrapins.

These two teams met last September, with the Terps scoring a 35-27 upset victory as a heavy 14-point home underdog.

The Golden Bears were a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS at home last year, all from the favorite’s role, and they are on further ATS rolls of 10-4 overall, 8-1 at home, 4-1 laying points and 4-1 in September. Cal is also 4-1 in its last five as a double-digit chalk.

Maryland is on ATS upswings of 5-1 catching more than 10 points and 4-1 in September, but the Terrapins also carry negative pointspread streaks of 1-5 on the road and 2-5 as a road pup.

The over for Cal is on tears of 8-3-1 outside the Pac-10 and 16-7 when the Bears are a home favorite, and last year’s clash with Maryland barely cleared the 61-point total. On the flip side, the under for Maryland is on runs of 13-6 overall, 8-1 on the road and 7-3 as an underdog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CALIFORNIA

(11) LSU at Washington

Perennial SEC power LSU makes the trek to the Pacific Northwest to open the season against the Huskies, who are coming off a winless season.

LSU went 8-5 SU last year but was a dismal 3-9 ATS, failing to cash in six straight games (2-4 SU) before finally bouncing back in the season-ending Chick-Fil-A Bowl with a 38-3 blowout of Georgia Tech as a four-point underdog. Jarrett Lee (1,873 yards passing, 13 TDs, 16 INTs) started most of last season, but sophomore Jordan Jefferson overtook Lee on the depth chart this year and will start at QB. Leading rusher Charles Scott (1,109 yards, 15 TDs, 5.5 ypc) is back for the Tigers, as well.

Washington was awful on all counts last year, going 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS, costing Ty Willingham his job and ushering in former USC assistant Steve Sarkisian as the new head coach. Nine of the Huskies’ losses came by double digits, including eight by 20 points or more. QB Jake Locker, who started four games last year before breaking his thumb, is back to lead the offense. Starting RB Chris Polk also returns as a redshirt freshman after missing all but two games last year due to injuries.

The Tigers are in ATS ruts of 1-6 overall, 0-4 as a chalk and 0-6 laying more than 10 points, but they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 20-8 in non-conference play and 15-6-1 as a road favorite. The Huskies carry nothing but negative ATS trends, including 18-39-2 overall, 15-31 at home (1-6 last year), 0-8 as an underdog and 0-5 getting points at home.

The over for LSU is on stretches of 15-6 overall, 9-3 on the highway and 12-5 as chalk, and the over for Washington is on surges of 8-3 at home and 5-1 in September.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

GAMETIMEPICKS.COM

Game of the day: Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
By Ted Sevransky

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (+6.5, 38.5)

Neutral Site?

An impressive win in the Georgia Dome to begin last season paved the way for Alabama to become one of the biggest surprises college football.

Nick Saban’s squad came out firing on all cylinders to start 2008, with a 34-10 opening-day win in Atlanta against a Clemson squad that was ranked in the preseason Top 10. Expect the Crimson Tide to hold the edge in crowd support in Atlanta Saturday night this time around, despite the neutral site venue.

ACC Mediocrity

The ACC has struggled to step up against the big boys over the last decade. Since the BCS bowl structure was founded a decade ago, ACC teams are just 2-9 SU in BCS Bowls. It’s surely worth noting that Virginia Tech beat Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl last year – the ACC was 1-9 as a conference in BCS Bowl Games prior to that victory.

Factoring pointspreads into the mix, the ACC isn’t getting much respect. This game features the two-time defending ACC champs, returning 15 starters, installed as a near touchdown underdog to an Alabama team that returns only four starters on the offensive side of the football.

Injuries and Suspensions

The NCAA reinstated Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones along with running back Mark Ingram on Wednesday on the condition that they repay the cost of a Gulf Coast fishing trip they took last spring. The ruling was very good news for the Crimson Tide. Jones was an All-SEC receiver as a freshman, while Ingram is set to replace All-SEC tailback Glen Coffee after leading the team with 12 touchdown runs as a freshman.

Alabama senior defensive end Brandon Deaderick isn’t expected to play on Saturday. Deaderick was shot in the arm during a robbery attempt over the weekend and was not released from the hospital until late Tuesday.

Virginia Tech’s star running back Darren Evans tore his ACL in preseason practice and is out for the season. Evans was a beast in the backfield last year, gaining more than 1,200 yards while punching in 11 touchdowns. Redshirt freshman RB Ryan Williams is expected to earn the starting nod for Frank Beamer’s squad.

Quarterbacks

Virginia Tech junior Tyrod Taylor split time with Sean Glennon last year, but the starting gig is all his in 2009. Taylor’s passing stats weren’t all that pretty in 2008. He posted a 57 percent completion rating, made 173 pass attempts that produced only 1036 yards and had a 2-to-7 touchdown to interception ratio. Taylor’s passing numbers should be better this year and the dual threat’s running numbers should exceed last year’s totals of 5.0 yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns.

John Parker Wilson graduated in the offseason, leaving the Crimson Tide to search for a new starting quarterback. Junior Greg McElroy won the job in a three-way competition during spring practice, after patiently waiting three full years for his chance.

McElroy knows a thing about patience. In high school he sat behind future Missouri star Chase Daniel until his senior year before leading his team to the state title. McElroy’s college experience is limited to mop-up duty in blowouts, throwing 20 passes in eight previous games.

“He is very smart. Players really like him. He has a lot of positive leadership qualities,” coach Nick Saban told reporters.

Coaches Quotes

Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer isn’t resting his hopes for the season on this one ballgame. Remember, the Hokies lost their opener to East Carolina last year, but still managed to win the ACC title.

“A win over a great program as good as Alabama would definitely be a big thing for Virginia Tech and the ACC,” Beamer told the media. “The other side of it, it doesn’t make your season either way. If you beat Alabama you still have games to play, and if you lose to Alabama you still have games to play.”

Nick Saban still seems upset by Alabama’s failures in the SEC title game against Florida and their Sugar Bowl game against Utah, particularly on the defensive side of the football.

While the buzz around Tuscaloosa is calling this year’s defense one of the best Alabama defenses ever, Saban cut that talk short.

“Where it is now, we gave up 31 points in the last two games we played. Even though we were going against two of the best offenses in the country, we need to do better. There’s a lot of room for improvement,” Saban told the press.

Tips and Trends

Nevada at Notre Dame

Nevada: The Wolf Pack hopes to stay in this game with their potent offense, which averaged 37 points and 500 yards in 2008. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick became the first player in NCAA history to throw for 2,500 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in a season. Kaepernick has two good running backs he can rely on, too, Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott. The Wolf Pack also could have the best offensive line in the Western Athletic Conference. Defensive ends Dontay Moch and Kevin Basped combined for 21 ½ sacks. The secondary is where the Wolf Pack is vulnerable ranking last against the pass in 2008. Nevada has incentive going against Notre Dame with nothing to lose. The Wolf Pack have a bye the following week where the Irish could get caught looking ahead with a road game next Saturday at long-time rival Michigan followed by a home game versus Michigan State.

The Wolf Pack is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road contests.
Nevada is 5-11 ATS as a road ‘dog when taking more than 10 points.

Key Injuries - None

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)

Notre Dame (-14.5, O/U 62): Notre Dame is getting a lot of love coming into the season with its first preseason ranking in three years and Lou Holtz proclaiming the Irish could play in the national title game. The fact is the Irish, while having a strong offense, are 10-15 the past two years under Charlie Weis. It’s the most losses the Irish have endured during a two-year period. They have lost 14 of the last 16 times they’ve met a team that went to a bowl game the previous season. Nevada has been to bowl games in each of the previous four seasons. Quarterback Jimmy Clausen lived up to his hype last year throwing for 3,172 yards and 25 touchdowns. Most of Clausen’s weapons are back, too, including leading rusher Armando Allen and top receivers Golden Tate and Michael Floyd. The Irish, though, are breaking in a rebuilt defensive front seven.

The Irish have failed to cover in 13 of their last 19 home contests.
Notre Dame is 2-9 ATS when laying more than 10 ½ points.

Key Injuries - Wide receiver Duval Kamara (knee) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 37

Missouri at Illinois

Missouri: This is the third time in a row these two teams have opened up against each other and Missouri has won the previous two times by six and 10 points. Sophomore Blaine Gabbert is replacing the departed Chase Daniel at quarterback. The Tigers also lost star wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Chase Coffman from last year’s 10-4 squad that averaged a healthy 42.2 points per game and put up 52 on Illinois. Despite losing these key players, insiders are saying this is the fastest team Gary Pinkel’s had in his nine years. The Tigers have covered in eight of their last 10 games versus a non-conference opponent. Only Oklahoma and USC have won more games than Missouri during the past two years. A key is if there will be defensive improvement under new coordinator Dave Steckel with just four starters returning, including only one in the secondary.

The Over is 26-10 the past 36 times Missouri has been an underdog.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28

Illinois (-6.5, O/U 60.5): Illinois is playing with double-revenge. The Illini are out to rebound from a disappointing 5-7 season. Senior quarterback Juice Williams can make plays and he has one of the Big Ten Conference’s best wide receivers to throw to in Arrelious Benn. Williams passed for 451 yards against Missouri last year. Despite losing cornerback Vontae Davis to the NFL, the Illini maintain a strong secondary. The Illini also will have defensive lineman Josh Brent. He was suspended earlier for an off-season DUI. But that suspension was lifted this week. Early betting has favored Illinois with the line climbing from an opening number of minus 3. Illinois, though, is 0-7 against the number when favored between 3 ½ and 10 points. The Illini are 7-12 against the spread when laying points during the past three years. They are 0-5 against the spread in their last five non-conference matchups.

Illinois is 13-6 to the over in its last 19 September games.

Key Injuries - Running back Daniel Dufrene (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 33 (OVER - Total of the Day)