NCAAF News and Notes Saturday, December 18, 2010

New Mexico Bowl Preview
By: Matt Zemek

In a college football season filled with irony, it only makes sense that the Brigham Young Cougars and the Texas-El Paso Miners should meet in a bowl game… and in Albuquerque, no less.

What’s so deliciously ironic about BYU and UTEP playing in the New Mexico Bowl on Dec. 18 in the Land of Enchantment? Consider the developments that have emerged in Western college football over the past several months.

Long story short, the Mountain West Conference – which was initially formed in 1999 to move beyond the Western Athletic Conference and form a new league in the Rocky Mountain region – is now becoming something very similar to what the old WAC in fact was. The departures of BYU, Utah and TCU, plus the additions (in 2012) of Fresno State, Nevada and (in football alone) Hawaii, are making the Mountain West very similar to what the WAC was in the mid-1990s: a junior league of sorts that needed more heft to become a prominent player on the national scene. This transition became valuable when Utah used the Mountain West platform to gain a BCS bowl bid in the 2004 season. However, the need to gain an automatic-qualifying bid is what led Utah and TCU to bolt the Mountain West. BYU wanted the financial leverage of independence.

At any rate, the Mountain West is now becoming more like the WAC. Therefore, it’s entirely fitting and thematically appropriate that in the Cougars’ last game as a Mountain West team, the boys from Provo will play a school that used to be part of the old WAC that existed in the pre-Mountain West days.

Yes, UTEP was one of the schools in the Western Athletic Conference of yesteryear. The basketball rivalry between the two schools was more spirited than the football rivalry, but it still stands that the Cougars and Miners will be reunited on the gridiron. And where will they compete, pray tell? Why, in Albuquerque, home of the New Mexico Lobos, another old WAC school that came along with BYU to the Mountain West in 1999. It’s such a family reunion here: two cousins are returning for a pre-Christmas get-together with a third cousin hosting the party. Now, to the teams at hand:

The Cougars have played much better football toward the end of their regular season. They overcame a 2-5 start to their season and gained bowl eligibility as a result. Quarterback Jake Heaps, only a freshman, used a bye week two-thirds of the way through the season to get a better understanding of coordinator Robert Anae’s offense. Heaps is now on the same page with his receivers, who are finding ways to produce big plays for their quarterback. This was not so in the first half of the 2010 campaign. Heaps has controlled his emotions, made sound reads, and opted for the safe check-down pass instead of the risky long ball.

The Miners got here because of the way they busted out of the gate this season, not how they limped to the finish line. UTEP began the year 5-1 but then went 1-5 down the stretch. The Miners used a hard-nosed and resilient defense to gain bowl eligibility. They contained Southern Methodist’s high-powered passing offense (28-14 was the score) in their one late-season triumph, the sixth win that pushed them to .500 and a non-losing season that allowed them to go bowling. Quarterback Trevor Vittatoe has struggled for much of the year, and the Miners as a whole – in a recurring development over the past several seasons – have generally wilted in the fourth quarter. This team did just enough in September and early October to accumulate wins before its second-half decline and its November nosedive.

The key to this clash of cousins in an old WAC city is Vittatoe. BYU has a quarterback who is full of confidence at the moment. Jake Heaps is primed for a solid game in the New Mexico Bowl. The question is if Vittatoe can end his career with a step-up performance that he’ll fondly remember one day. UTEP has been slip-sliding away ever since its 5-1 start. If the Miners can’t dig up some magic, they’ll lose to BYU in this WAC-flavored fistfight.

STAT PACK:

BYU:

Passing Yards Per Game: 190.3 (National ranking out of 120 FBS teams: 86)

Rushing Yards Per Game: 163.8 (Ranking: 46)

Points Per Game: 24.0 (Ranking: 84)

Points Allowed Per Game: 21.4 (Ranking: 32)

UTEP:

Passing: 221.5 ypg (Ranking: 60)

Rushing: 149.5 ypg (Ranking: 69)

Scoring: 26.2 ppg (Ranking: 70)

Scoring Defense: 25.4 ppg (Ranking: 58)

Humanitarian Bowl Preview
By: Matt Zemek

Kill or be killed? That, in many ways, is the bottom-line question in the 2010 Humanitarian Bowl, a noisy Boise battle which will test the heart and perseverance of a wounded bunch of boys from DeKalb, Illinois.

The Northern Illinois Huskies zoomed through the Mid-American Conference during the regular season, going 8-0 in regularly-scheduled games before stumbling against Miami University in the MAC Championship Game on Dec. 3 in Detroit. NIU won the MAC West Division thanks to the dazzling and nimble versatility of quarterback Chandler Harnish, a sound passer but an even more eye-catching runner in open space. NIU was also able to win at Minnesota, ironically the school that just claimed the Huskies’ head coach, Jerry Kill.

That brings us to this game’s central storyline: Kill – who endured a hospital stay in September – was and is an emotional centerpiece for the NIU football family. Now that he’s in Minnesota along with his two coordinators, NIU has a hollowed-out coaching staff as this bowl game approaches. Moreover, a Dec. 18 kickoff – not a post-Christmas date – gives NIU very little time to prepare for the occasion. The Huskies will arrive in Boise less than two weeks after playing the MAC title game. Can this team emotionally recover from its double-downer of losing the MAC and then losing not only Kill, but its two main play-calling chieftains on both sides of the ball? It all sounds quite daunting for a ballclub that thrived for so much of the season but has seen its foremost goal evaporate and its foremost leader depart for the greener pastures of the Big Ten.

If you wanted to make a case for Northern Illinois in this contest, however, there’s one strong argument to be made, and it boils down to this: Precisely because there’s relatively little time between the MAC Championship Game and the Humanitarian Bowl, Northern Illinois could benefit from the fact that it will be able to play a game right after its heartbreaking defeat. Plenty of athletes want nothing more than to get right back on the field following a terrible punch to the gut. They want to quickly erase that bad taste. Playing this game so quickly after the loss to Miami could give NIU a lift, whereas sitting down might have hurt the Huskies’ psyches even more. The abrupt turnaround from one game to another will also enable NIU’s system to remain in place under interim coach Tom Matukewicz.

The Fresno State Bulldogs didn’t win a share of the Western Athletic Conference championship – three other schools (Boise State, Nevada and Hawaii) earned that distinction in 2010 – but Fresno State finished 8-4 and crafted a credible season. It just wasn’t the showstopping kind of season the natives were wanting in the inland California Valley. Fresno State’s tried-and-true formula is a power offense with pro-style principles. The Bulldogs have not flocked to adopt the spread concepts that have pervaded much of college football in recent years. Quarterback Ryan Colburn pilots a traditional offense that runs between the tackles and them aims to fire the ball downfield in the passing game.

This will be a game of tempo and style, a lot like a basketball game. NIU wants a fast-paced affair in which its spread concepts can free up Harnish as a runner for home-run plays, especially on the edges. Fresno State would like a slower slugfest in which it can roll up its sleeves and proceed to pound away at a less imposing NIU defensive front.

STAT PACK

Northern Illinois:

Passing Yards Per Game: 181.2 (National ranking out of 120 FBS teams: 89)

Rushing Yards Per Game: 264.8 (Ranking: 7)

Points Per Game: 37.8 (Ranking: 13)

Points Allowed Per Game: 19.1 (Ranking: 16)

Fresno State:

Passing: 214.3 ypg (Ranking: 67)

Rushing: 157.0 ypg (Ranking: 55)

Scoring: 30.0 ppg (Ranking: 45)

Scoring Defense: 29.2 ppg (Ranking: 79)

New Orleans Bowl Preview
By: Matt Zemek

Two teams that once held high hopes for conference championships, only to stumble in November and fall short of their goals, will get a chance in the month of December to put a nice little bow on their respective seasons.

In the 2010 New Orleans Bowl, one team will get a chance to live it up in one of America’s best party cities. The losing team can at least sing the blues in accompaniment with the Big Easy’s many brilliant and brassy trombone players.

Let’s start with the representative of the Sun Belt Conference in this cross-country clash inside the Louisiana Superdome. The Troy Trojans technically split the Sun Belt title in a two-way finish with Florida International, but the Golden Panthers won the head-to-head matchup between the two teams. Troy failed to win the Sun Belt outright for the first time in three seasons because of a defense that got eviscerated in November. Troy surrendered 52 points to Florida International, then 69 to South Carolina. Yes, Troy lost an early-season non-conference game to Alabama-Birmingham on a last-play Hail Mary, but for the most part, Troy’s defense was decent – not spectacular, but entirely passable – in September and most of October. In November, however, the dam simply broke, and with that collapse came a loss of Troy’s stranglehold on its own conference.

However, with all that having been acknowledged, coach Larry Blakeney’s ballclub still managed to go 7-5 and earn a bowl bid. Troy’s best football was played in early October. The boys from southeastern Alabama maxed out in a comprehensive domination of rival Middle Tennessee in a prime-time Tuesday tilt on national television. After the November to not remember, the Trojans regained their footing and clinched a winning season with a 44-7 win over Florida Atlantic on Dec. 4. The abrupt last-game turnaround suggests that this team found itself and has addressed the issues that so manifestly plagued the Trojans in the final third of their season. It’s true that Florida Atlantic isn’t exactly the greatest thing since sliced bread, but few people were expecting the Trojans to clip the Owls by 37 points. The Sun Belt was a tightly-bunched league all season long, with no team finishing better than 7-5 overall. FIU, the champion, ended up at 6-6 overall (all six wins came in the Belt, though).

Now, to the team Troy will oppose under the big dome in the Big Easy. The Ohio Bobcats were the best team in the MAC East Division… for only 11 games, not 12. Coach Frank Solich’s team was all set to wrap up the East and move on to the MAC title game the following week in Detroit, but in a late-morning (11 a.m.) kickoff on Friday, Nov. 26, Ohio crumbled. The Cats were declawed in their final game at Kent State, losing 28-6 and committing four turnovers while failing on two separate fake punts. A complete train wreck ruined Ohio’s chances of winning the East for the second straight season. Troy can relate to the notion of expecting to win and being in a position to repeat past successes, only to fail in the end.

As bitter as Ohio’s season finale ultimately tasted, it bears mentioning that before the Kent State calamity, the Cats fought past most of their foes. Ohio’s strength is its running game. The Bobcats try to hit defenses up the middle with legitimate power, but then free up quarterback Boo Jackson to run on the edges and make defenses think twice about loading up the tackle box to take away the run. Ohio’s best win came in a Tuesday night win at Temple (an 8-4 team) in Philly. That win just might have been the game that ensured the Bobcats’ place in this contest.

The key will be the quarterbacks – it’s not a shock, but it’s the necessary statement to make. Troy field general Corey Robinson is only a freshman, while Jackson is a senior who will be playing his last collegiate game. Can the rookie match the veteran’s poise on each snap and on every drive? That’s a daunting task, but it will have to be performed if Troy wants to win this game.

STAT PACK

Ohio:

Passing Yards Per Game: 158.4 (National ranking out of 120 FBS teams: 105)

Rushing Yards Per Game: 168.8 (Ranking: 39)

Points Per Game: 28.0 (Ranking: 54)

Points Allowed Per Game: 21.8 (Ranking: 34)

Troy:

Passing: 288.2 ypg (Ranking: 12)

Rushing: 152.9 ypg (Ranking: 62)

Scoring: 32.9 ppg (Ranking: 27)

Scoring Defense: 31.0 ppg (Ranking: 92)

Dr. Bob Analysis

BYU (-11.5) 28 Texas El Paso 18 (at New Mexico Bowl)

UTEP is clearly the worst team to make it to a bowl game, as the Miners 6-6 record is littered with wins over Division 1AA teams (Arkansas Pine Bluff) and bottom dwelling 1A teams like New Mexico State, Memphis, New Mexico, and Rice. El Paso’s only quality win was against SMU and the Miners were out-gained 366 yards at 5.7 yards per play to 418 yards at 5.9 yppl in their 11 games against 1A teams despite facing teams that were 11 points worse than average. An average team would have out-gained UTEP’s schedule of 1A teams 6.0 yppl to 5.2 yppl so the Miners are 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.7 yppl worse than average on defense.

BYU’s resume doesn’t look all that impressive at first glance, as the Cougars were also 6-6 straight up. However, the Cougars turned their season around after a 1-4 start by going 5-2 straight up and 6-1 ATS in their final 7 games with their only two losses coming to #3 ranked TCU and a good Utah team – and BYU covered in both of those losses. The Cougars’ season turned around when head coach Bronco Mendenhall fired defensive coordinator Jaime Hill and took control of the defense himself. Mendenhall was a great defensive coordinator before becoming a head coach. BYU was a slightly below average defensive team in their first 5 games, but the Cougars have yielded just 4.6 yppl and 16.1 points per game in their 7 games since Mendenhall took over the defense and that unit held TCU to a modest 5.5 yppl and Utah’s potent attack to just 4.6 yppl. BYU’s defense is a very good 0.7 yppl better than average with Mendenhall in charge and that is not reflected in the line on this game.

BYU’s defense has a significant 1.0 yppl advantage over the UTEP offense and even the sluggish BYU attack (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) matches up equally with UTEP’s poor defense (0.7 yppl worse than average). My math model favors BYU by 16 ½ points, as it appears that their improved defense is not being taken into account by the odds makers. The other reason the line is lower than it should be is because of the long history of success of big underdogs in bowl games (bowl dogs of 10 points or more are 53-32-2 ATS). In addition to that trend UTEP applies to a very strong 40-8 ATS bowl situation while BYU applies to a negative 8-34 ATS bowl situation. Those angles have applied to the same game 3 times and the record is a perfect 3-0 with all 3 of those being underdogs that won straight up by an average of 18.3 points (and each won by a minimum of 17 points). The math is clearly in favor of BYU in this game, but the situation is more strongly in favor of UTEP and I’ll lean slightly with UTEP at +11 or more and I’ll lean with the UNDER since BYU’s improved defense with Mendenhall in charge doesn’t appear to be factored into that line either (my math projects 45 ½ points).

Northern Ill (-1.0) 30 Fresno St. 24 (at Humanitarian Bowl)

I would have considered Northern Illinois for more than just a lean if it weren’t for the uncertainty of how the Huskies will respond to the heart of their coaching staff leaving. Head coach Jerry Kill has left to become the head coach at Minnesota and he took the offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator with him, making the Huskies preparation for his game a question. However, reports are that the team is united and is excited to be playing and interim head coaches are actually a profitable 17-11 ATS in bowl games since I’ve been keeping track. Northern Illinois had a 9 game win streak snapped with their shocking 21-26 loss as a 17 ½ point favorite in the MAC Championship game against Miami-Ohio, but bowl teams coming off an upset loss are a solid 67-43-4 ATS if their opponent ended the season with a win, so the poor performance by the Huskies against Miami-Ohio is not a concern.

What should be a concern for Fresno is Northern Illinois’ rushing attack, which averaged 265 yards at 6.6 yards per rushing play this season (against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team). Fresno hasn’t been able to stop the run in recent years and this past season was no different as the Bulldogs gave up 5.9 yprp (to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp against an average team), including 345 yards at 7.5 yprp in their win over Illinois. The Bulldogs won that game because Illinois’ poor throwing quarterback couldn’t compliment the run with good passing (just 54 net pass yards). Fresno’s pass defense posted good numbers for the season (5.8 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average team), but those numbers were skewed by dominating bad passing teams while mediocre or good quarterbacks had success against the Fresno secondary, especially when not harassed by the Bulldogs’ good pass rush (3.0 sacks per game). In their last 6 games against mediocre or good quarterbacks the Bulldogs’ pass defense wasn’t nearly so good, as Mississippi, Hawaii, San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, Nevada and Boise State combined for 7.8 yppp against Fresno while getting sacked an average of just 1.5 times. Northern Illinois quarterback Chandler Harnish averaged 7.9 yppp this season against Division 1A teams (that would combine to allow 7.1 yppp to an average quarterback) and he was sacked just 12 times in 12 games. I expect the Huskies’ strong rushing attack to run at will against Fresno’s soft defensive front while Harnish does a good job throwing the ball when he needs to.

Fresno State’s offense was a bit below average this season with 5.6 yards per play coming against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team and that unit rates at just average with top RB Robbie Rouse back healthy after missing the finale against Illinois. The unit should move the ball at a decent rate against a Northern Illinois defense that was 0.3 yppl worse than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average just 4.9 yppl against an average team). My math model projects 5.8 yppl for the Bulldogs in this game, but that’s less than the 6.4 yppl that Northern Illinois is expected to gain. The projection doesn’t even account for Fresno’s #2 tackler LB Kyle Knox being suspended for this game. Knox was actually #1 in tackles per game for the Bulldogs and had 6 ½ tackles for loss, so an already weak Fresno run defense figures to be a bit weaker in this game.

Overall, the math favors Northern Illinois by 4 ½ points and the Huskies apply to a 40-7-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator based on their ability to run and Fresno’s inability to stop the run. Unfortunately, Fresno applies to a 54-14-1 ATS bowl angle, but that angle is 0-3 ATS when the 40-7-2 ATS angle applies to the other side. The question is how well the thinned NIU coaching staff will be able to prepare their team with the head coach and both coordinators, but bowl teams have responded well in the past to coaching changes and it doesn’t take much game planning for Northern Illinois to simply run the ball against a weak Fresno run defense. I’ll lean with Northern Illinois in this game and I’ll also lean with the Under given that my math model projects just 52 total points (bowl games are usually a couple of points higher scoring than projections, which is why I have 54 points in my projected score). That projection may seem low given that NIU games averaged 58.4 points while Fresno games averaged 59.6 points, but both teams had higher scoring games than their stats would project and I expect a lot of running plays in this game, which will limit the number of plays.

Ohio 31 Troy (-2.0) 30 (at New Orleans Bowl)

I’ll call for the minor upset in a game between two bad teams from bad conferences. Ohio blew their chance at making the MAC title game when they were upset in their finale by Kent, but the Bobcats apply to a 34-6 ATS bowl situation that is based on that upset loss and I’ll lean with the Bobcats to win this game. Ohio is a bit below average offensively, averaging 5.6 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team and the Bobcats’ two quarterbacks throw far too many interceptions (18 on just 246 pass attempts), but that unit managed to average 28 points per game this season thanks in part of good field position set up by their excellent special teams and solid defense. The Bobcats’ defense yielded just 5.1 yppl this season, although they faced teams that would combine to average just 4.8 yppl against an average team. I actually rate the Ohio defense much worse than that, as their defensive numbers were significantly worse from week 4 on without the services of star LB Noah Keller. In 9 games without Keller the Bobcats surrendered 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 4.5 yppl against an average team, but that unit somehow managed to give up just 20.2 points per game, which masks that fact that they are not a good defensive team (their opponents in those games would combine to average only 15.9 points against an average defensive team).

Troy’s up-tempo attack averaged 446 yards at 5.9 yppl and 33 points per game, but the Trojans are actually just average from a compensated yards per play perspective (their opponents would combine to allow 5.9 yppl against an average team). However, the Trojans should thrive offensively in this game given their 0.9 yppl advantage over Ohio’s overrated defense. Troy’s defense is a problem, allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.1 yppl against an average team, but that unit is actually better than Ohio’s defense, which is 0.9 yppl worse than average without Keller. Troy’s defense just looks a lot worse because there are so many more plays being run in Troy’s games (148) than in Ohio’s games (125) and the Bobcats are helped by their great special teams play.

My math model projects Troy with 471 total yards at 6.4 yppl while Ohio checks in a 383 yards at 6.0 yppl, but Ohio has a solid edge in special teams and Troy by 3 ½ points is what it all adds up to mathematically. I’m still going to lean with Ohio in this game, as the Bobcats not only apply to that 34-6 ATS situation that I mentioned earlier, but they also apply to a 40-7-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I’ll lean with Ohio and I’d consider the Bobcats a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more. I’ll also lean slightly with the Over at 58 points or less.

The math model chance to cover is based solely on the math and does not take into account any situational analysis. There are cases where the math favors one side and I favor the other because the situation significantly favors the other side, so refer to my written analysis for my prediction of each game.

College Math Model Predictions

Percent chance of covering based only on math only and does not include any situational analysis. Listed alphabetically by home team

Team Rushing Passing Total Fum Int Pts Line %
BYU 39.1-225, 5.75 33.7-191, 5.68 72.8-416, 5.72 0.81 0.75 31.0 -11.5 0.551
Texas El Paso 27.7-115, 4.14 32.8-144, 4.39 60.5-259, 4.28 0.79 1.08 14.4 +11.5 0.449

Northern Ill 39.0-245, 6.28 22.7-150, 6.60 61.7-395, 6.40 0.76 0.46 28.3 -1.0 0.535
Fresno St. 32.3-168, 5.20 29.4-189, 6.44 61.7-357, 5.79 0.83 0.78 23.8 +1.0 0.465

Ohio 39.1-220, 5.63 24.4-163, 6.70 63.5-384, 6.04 0.89 1.38 29.3 +2.0 0.487
Troy 33.7-167, 4.97 40.2-304, 7.56 73.9-471, 6.38 0.85 1.10 32.6 -2.0 0.513

Key to Math System Predictions:
Rushing = Run Plays - Rushing Yards, Yards Per Rush (ypr)
Passing = Pass Plays - Passing Yards, Yards Per Pass Play (ypp, includes sacks)
Total = Total Plays - Total Yards, Yards Per Play
Fum = Fumbles
Ints = Interceptions
Pts = Predicted Points Scored
Line = Point Spread
% = Chance to Cover Spread

New Mexico Bowl
By Judd Hall

The BCS is the goal of every team in college football and the casual fans will be patiently waiting for those games to arrive. Gamblers, on the other hand, have been jonesing for the last two weeks with no tests on the board. That all changes on Saturday at 2:00 p.m. EST on ESPN as the Miners take on BYU (6-6 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) in the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque.

I know that a lot of people aren’t surprised UTEP (6-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) is in this contest as a middle-of-the-pack Conference USA squad. But many folks will raise eyebrows at the Cougars winding up in a bowl game at all.

Not many were sure what to expect out of BYU this season after the turnover from last year’s 11-2 campaign. What nobody expected was the injury issues that plagued Bronco Mendenhall’s team this year.

Those injuries hurt the Cougs in the most important spot, putting up points (24.0 points per game). There was a silver lining in the bad luck as BYU has found its QB of the future in Jake Heaps.

The freshman gunslinger has grown up fast under center this season. He’s completed 55.6 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions. While those numbers are about what you’d expect for a true freshman, he’s performed much better at the end of the campaign. Heaps has thrown for at least 200 yards in his last four starts, scoring nine touchdowns with one pick.

Heaps’ maturation has helped get the Cougars go bowling as they closed out the year with a 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS mark.

Helping out with Heaps’ growth is the fact Brigham Young’s running game is picking up 163.8 yards per game on the ground to rank 46th nationally. The Cougs are picking up that yardage thanks to a three-headed attack out of the backfield with J.J. Di Luigi (789 yards, 7 TD), Bryan Kariya (506 yards, 5 TD) and Josh Quezada (393 yards, 4 TD).

BYU has been strong enough on defense, giving up 339.0 YPG this season. Yet people will be getting involved in the fact they’ve allowed 151.2 YPG on the ground. That number is not quite accurate since Mendenhall has taken over the defensive play calling duties after a 31-16 loss to Utah State on Oct. 1. Since that time, the Cougars have allowed just 74.0 rushing YPG.

UTEP thought this could be a great year when they opened up with a 5-1 SU and 3-2 ATS record. But they’ve stumbled in the second half of the season, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS.

The Miners took that tumble in large part to quarterback Trevor Vittatoe spraining his ankle. The senior gunslinger threw for at least 229 yards in UTEP’s first six games. Since then, Vittatoe has passed the 200-yard mark just once. The ankle also killed his mobility as he was sacked eight times in this slump.

Donald Buckram knows Vittatoe’s pain about not performing up to full strength. Buckram rushed for 1,594 yards and 18 touchdowns last season. However, he’s been hampered with a bad ankle that has allowed him to get 310 yards on 75 carries and one score. Joe Banyard is picking up the slack (597 yards, 8 TD), but that isn’t bothering the Miners in moving the chains (48.8 %, 15th nationally).

The opposite directions of both teams have taken a toll on the line at the betting shops by installing the Cougars as 11 ½-point favorites with a total of 50. Gamblers looking to start out with a big payday can get one by taking UTEP to win outright for a plus-330 return (risk $100 to win $330).

Despite BYU being a big favorite, only 55% of the money going in at Sportsbook.com has them covering the spread. Those gamblers might be onto something since the Cougars are 19-0 SU, but 9-10 ATS in their last 19 games as at least 10-point favorites. Plus, BYU’s 3-2 SU and ATS mark in bowls since 2005 doesn’t put a lot of confidence in backing them at the betting window.

The Miners are listed as huge pups for a reason as we see that they’re 2-11 SU when listed as underdogs of at least 10-points over the past five years. However, they are 7-6 ATS in that stretch.

UTEP also has history on its side for this game. The New Mexico Bowl has been murder on favorites, going 1-3 SU and ATS in the first four editions of this contest. The ‘over’ has cashed in the last two years.

vegasinsider.com

Humanitarian Bowl
By Judd Hall

If there is one thing that we have learned about college football is that records simply don’t mean a thing. This weekend’s Humanitarian Bowl between the Huskies and Fresno State (8-4 straight up, 5-6 against the spread) shapes up as another game that doesn’t matter how good you were in the regular season.

Northern Illinois (12-1 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) may have lost to the Redhawks in the MAC title game, but they are still the class of the league.

One of the main reasons for the Huskies’ success is the ability to move the ball on offense. They were amongst the nation’s leaders in scoring offense (37.9 PPG, 13th) and rushing (264.8 YPG, 7th).

While Chad Spann is the workhorse of the NIU attack, picking up 1,256 yards and 20 touchdowns this season, Chandler Harnish truly makes the offense work. Harnish, a third-year starter, has connected on 64.7 percent of his passes for 2,230 yards with 20 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Those are quite impressive numbers for the junior signal caller when you consider there isn’t a big-time receiver on the team.

The Huskies also have a sturdy defense that is keeping the opposition at back. They rank 27th nationally in total defense, giving up just 332.6 YPG. Northern Illinois is also 27th in the country when it comes to defending against the run, surrendering 130.5 rushing YPG.

One of the few things going against Northern Illinois in this game is the change going on with the powers that be with Jerry Kill heading to the Golden Gophers. “The upheaval within the coaching staff in the past two weeks, while not always a negative in bowl preparation, is rarely a positive, either,” says VegasInsider.com’s Bruce Marshall. “Jerry Kill's departure, the appointment of an interim coach (LB coach Tom Matukewicz) for this game, then the announcement on Monday that Wisconsin d.c. Dave Doeren will be taking over the program next season hardly creates an environment of stability. That is a lot of unnecessary distractions for NIU over the past two weeks.”

There are no problems with coaching stability with the mustachioed Pat Hill completing his 14th season with the Bulldogs.

Fresno State doesn’t have the most prolific offensive stats, coming in at No. 71 in total offense (371.3 YPG). Hell, they don’t even move the chains on third down all that effectively (35.0%, 99th). That doesn’t mean the Bulldogs don’t have talent on that side of the ball.

Ryan Coburn has been a steadying influence on the Bulldogs’ attack under center. All the senior signal caller has done is connecting on 61.8 percent of his passes for 2.529 yards and 21 scores to nine picks. Coburn is also riding high after a 304 yard, three touchdown performance in his final home game of his career in a 25-23 win over Illinois.

The running game for Fresno State lies squarely on the shoulders of Robbie Rouse. The sophomore running back is averaging 109.7 yards per game on the ground, which is 13th in the country. But there is some worry about his ability in this game since he’s been hampered by rib and hand injuries that kept him out of the regular season finale against the Fighting Illini.

The ‘Dogs had a decent effort against the run this season, giving up just 154.8 YPG that puts them at No. 65 amongst FBS schools. However, that number isn’t the most accurate as they’ve sacked opposing QBs 37 times in 2010 (6th nationally). That could spell trouble for Harnish, who got sacked three times by the Redhawks in the MAC title game.

When you look at the overall record discrepancy, you’d expect NIU to be favored in the game. And you would be right as the Huskies are listed as one-point favorites with a total of 59. Although, you’re going to find this game going from a pick ‘em to Fresno State -1 if you do a little shopping.

So why is there such flip-flopping on the line? Perhaps it has something to do with the quality of opponents these teams faced in 2010.

Fresno State has had to deal with five games this year against ranked or BCS schools. The Bulldogs went 2-3 SU, but 3-2 ATS in those tests. Northern Illinois has not taken on a ranked club all season long. And the Huskies played against three BCS programs, which they sport a 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS.

The Bulldogs have not had good luck in bowl games recently, going 0-2 SU and ATS in the last two. That includes an embarrassing 35-28 OT loss to Wyoming as 10-point favorites in last season’s New Mexico Bowl. Since 2000, Fresno State is 4-5 SU and ATS in bowl games with the ‘over’ going 7-2.

I’d like to say something good about the Huskies’ chances here, but MAC teams don’t perform in the bowl games. How bad are they? Teams from the Mid-American Conference are 1-12 SU and 1-10-2 ATS over the last few postseasons. The only win coming from Central Michigan over Troy in last year’s GMAC Bowl.

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New Orleans Bowl
By Brian Edwards

The Superdome in the Big Easy will play host to Saturday’s R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl between Ohio from out of the MAC and Troy from the Sun Belt Conference.

As of Friday morning, most betting shops were listing Troy (7-5 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) as a three-point favorite with a total of 57. Gamblers can back the Bobcats to win outright for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).

Larry Blakeney’s team is going bowling for the fifth time in the last seven seasons. The Trojans won their last two regular season games both SU and ATS, including a 44-7 win at Florida Atlantic as four-point road favorites. Corey Robinson was the catalyst against the Owls in the regular-season finale, completing 25-of-34 passes for 324 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Shawn Southward added a pair of touchdown runs.

Ohio (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) saw its seven-game winning streak snapped in its regular-season finale, a 28-6 loss at Kent St. as a 4 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ Senior QB Boo Jackson was intercepted twice and couldn’t produce anything with his legs, as the Bobcats’ offense was limited to a pedestrian 183 yards of total offense.

Prior to that loss, however, Frank Solich’s team was a big-time money maker for its backers, cashing tickets at a 7-1 ATS clip before the Kent St. debacle. When listed as an underdog this season, Ohio has compiled a 1-2 SU record and a 2-1 ATS mark.

The status of Ohio’s Jackson, the veteran signal caller, was still in doubt as of Friday afternoon. He’s considered “questionable” due to academic concerns and was left behind in Athens when the team came to New Orleans earlier in the week. Jackson is a dual-threat QB that has connected on 60.3 percent of his passes for 1,688 yards. However, he has a mediocre 15/16 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Jackson has rushed for seven TDs this year.

If Jackson is declared ineligible, Solich will give the starting nod to Philip Bates, who has mostly been used as the team’s QB from out of the Wild Cat formation. Bates is second on the team in rushing with 508 yards and three touchdowns. He has completed just 9-of-20 passes for 178 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.

Regardless of who plays QB for the Bobcats, he’ll be looking to get the ball to senior WR Terrence Mcrae, who has a team-high 32 catches for 481 yards and nine touchdowns. Mcrae averages 15.0 yard per reception.

The break between the end of the regular season and the bowl game has allowed Troy freshman defensive back Chris Pickett to get healthy. Pickett, who missed the last three games with a sprained ankle, started seven games at cornerback and two at safety. Pickett had 33 tackles and seven pass break-ups this year.

Troy redshirt freshman QB Corey Robinson has completed 62.6 percent of his throws for 3,339 yards with a 24/15 TD-INT ratio. Robinson’s favorite target is senior WR Jerrel Jernigan, who will be playing in the league on Sundays next season. Jernigan has 77 receptions for 774 yards and five touchdowns. He also lines up at QB in the Wild Cat formation and has rushed for 306 yards and two TDs, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Jernigan has also found the end zone on a punt return and a kick-off return.

These schools had a pair of common opponents during the 2010 regular season. They both beat Bowling Green and Louisiana. Troy slipped past BG by a 30-27 count and knocked off La., 31-24. Ohio beat BG 49-25 and captured a 38-31 victory over the Ragin’ Cajuns.

The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for Ohio, 6-6 overall for Troy. The ‘over’ has cashed in three of the Bobcats’ last four games, while the ‘under’ is on a 6-3 run in the Trojans’ last nine contests.

ESPN will provide television coverage for this 9:00 p.m. Eastern kick-off.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Troy’s offense ranks 24th in the nation, averaging 441.1 yards of total offense. The Trojans average 32.9 points per game, which ranks 27th in the country.

Ohio has the nation’s 14th-rated rush defense, limiting foes to 115.0 rushing yards per game.

Ohio’s best defensive lineman, senior DT Ernie Hodge, is also “questionable” like Jackson due to academic issues.

Ohio has lost all four bowl games in school history. During his six-year tenure, Solich has taken the Bobcats bowling twice. In ’06, they lost 28-7 to So. Miss in the GMAC Bowl. Last year Ohio dropped a 21-17 decision to Marshall in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl.

Troy won the 2006 New Orleans Bowl, thumping Rice 41-17 as a five-point underdog. We remember clearly because we backed the Trojans on the money for a plus-185 payout. Since then, however, Blakeney’s bunch has dropped back-to-back bowl games in three combined overtime sessions. In the ’08 New Orleans Bowl, So. Miss rallied from a double-digit deficit to force OT and eventually won by a 30-27 score as a 4 ½-point underdog. Then last year at the GMAC Bowl, Dan LeFevour led Central Michigan to a 44-41 victory over Troy in a double-overtime thriller. Troy backers pushed as a three-point underdog.

Pitch a tent around that circus down in Coral Gables. Seriously, this is embarrassing. According to this report from Sports By Brooks via The Miami Herald, high-level UM sources indicated that the school was turned off by Mississippi head football coach Dan Mullen’s big ego. Really? Since when is a coach (or any prospective employee in any field of work) not supposed to come into an interview oozing confidence galore? ‘The U’ used to be all about swagger, but these days the school can’t pluck coaches from Rutgers or Mississippi State and has to settle for hiring away the head coach at Temple.

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New Mexico Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

New Mexico Bow: UTEP Miners vs. BYU Cougars (-11.5, 50)

The FBS postseason officially kicks off with the fifth annual New Mexico Bowl featuring a matchup between two former Western Athletic Conference rivals in the Cougars and the Miners.

BYU (6-6, 5-3 Mountain West Conference, 7-5 ATS) comes to Albuquerque having closed the season strong with wins in five of its final seven games after a forgettable 1-4 start.

UTEP (6-6, 3-5 Conference USA, 5-7 ATS) staggers into the postseason having dropped five of its last six games after a 5-1 start. The Miners are no stranger to Albuquerque having beaten New Mexico there, 38-20, back on Oct. 2. The game marks the first time the two former WAC rivals have played since 1998.

Point spread

Brigham Young -11. Over/under -50.

Brigham Young’s edge

The Cougars are hardly the explosive offensive team they’ve been in years past. But, after averaging a little more than 15 points per game over the first five games, they appear to have found their groove offensively. BYU averaged a robust 37 points per contest over their final five contests.

UTEP’s edge

The Miners, led by the speedy Marlon McClure, have benefited with field position. They rank 11th nationally in punt returns with an average of just under 14 yards and 10th in kickoff returns at just under 26 yards per return.

The Quarterbacks

True-freshman quarterback Jake Heaps directed a more efficient BYU passing attack that averaged better than 260 yards per game over the Cougars’ final four games, while a stingy BYU defense did the rest by holding its final four opponents scoreless in the first half.

Miners quarterback Trevor Vittatoe has had to shoulder the load for an offense that has had trouble running the football at times. The senior has responded well for the most part, completing nearly 55 percent of his passes for 19 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. He has been slowed by an ankle injury in recent weeks but is expected to play Saturday.

Junior Joe Banyard is the Miners’ leading rusher with just 612 yards. That inability to run has put considerably more pressure on the UTEP defense and has contributed to the Miners’ late-season slide.

NFL prospects

Brigham Young - LT Matt Reynolds, S Andrew Rich. UTEP - G Rod Huntley.

Bowl History

Brigham Young - The Cougars are making their sixth consecutive bowl trip, but are just 10-17-1 overall in bowl games. However, they’ve won three of their last four, including a 2009 triumph over No. 18 Oregon State, 44-20, at the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl.

UTEP – The Miners are 6-6 all-time in bowl games and making their first postseason appearance 2005. UTEP has dropped its last four bowl games.

Humanitarian Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

Kill switch

It appeared to be a dream season in the making.

The Huskies didn't lose a game in October or November, winning nine consecutive outings while going 8-0-1 ATS to land a spot in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game.

But after scoring 45 points or more in five of its last eight contests, the NIU offense showed up pancake-flat against Miami (Ohio) and suffered a 26-21 loss to the Redhawks, marking the second time in five years that Northern Illinois lost in the final seconds on a game-winning touchdown for the MAC title.

To make matters worse, just days after receiving an invitation to the Humanitarian Bowl, the Huskies were stunned by the announcement that head coach Jerry Kill was leaving for the University of Minnesota.

Kill will not be on the sideline for this game. Instead, NIU assistant coach Tom Matukewicz will serve as interim head football coach.

Matukewicz, a Kansas native who has been with Kill for the last 10 seasons at Emporia State, Southern Illinois and NIU, was named the 2007 Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) Assistant Coach of the Year by the American Football Coaches' Association (AFCA) while at SIU. He has coordinated the Huskies' run defense while leading the linebacking corps. The Humanitarian Bowl marks Matukewicz’s head-coaching debut.

Dave Doeren, a 16-year collegiate coaching veteran who currently serves as defensive coordinator at the University of Wisconsin, was named the new Northern Illinois head coach.

Road Warriors

Northern Illinois takes to the road for the ninth time in the 2010 season.

After playing four of its first five games of the season on the road, NIU will finish the year by playing five of its last six games away from home, including the final two regular season contests, the MAC title game in Detroit and the bowl game in Boise.

NIU is the only 10-win team in the country to play only five home games.

2-10 to 10-2

In earning their 10th win of 2010, the Huskies completed a remarkable turnaround from the injury-ravaged team that won just two of 12 games in 2007.

There are 27 players on the current roster who were on the 2007 team.

In winning 10 games, the 2010 Huskies matched the 10-win regular season posted by the 2003 NIU team, a team that did not receive a bowl invitation.

All MACcolades

Six Northern Illinois players earned first team All-Mid-American Conference accolades from MAC coaches and 13 NIU players were honored with all-league honors overall after leading the Huskies to an undefeated (8-0) conference regular season record.

Senior tailback Chad Spann, the league's leading rusher and Offensive Player of the Year, led a contingent of four offensive players on the first-team unit.

Quarterback Chandler Harnish became the first Northern Illinois quarterback in school history to be named to the first-team squad.

Harnisch broke All-American George Bork's 47-year-old mark for total offense yards in a season with 2,994 yards (2,230 passing/764 rushing).

Husky helper

• Northern Illinois is 9-15 all-time versus teams that currently make up the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) and will face a WAC opponent in a bowl game for the second time in the past three years. The Huskies lost a tight 17-10 game to Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl in 2008. NIU's last game against a WAC opponent came last season, when Idaho handed the Huskies a 34-31 defeat in DeKalb.

• In three seasons under Jerry Kill, the Huskies are a perfect 21-0 when they rush for 200 or more yards in a game, including a 9-0 mark in 2010. However, NIU is only 2-16 over the last three years when it does not gain 200 yards on the ground.

Humanitarian winner

Fresno quarterback Ryan Colburn was recognized for his hard-working dedication to excellence on and off the field with the 2010 Humanitarian Award.

Colburn will leave his mark on Bulldog football in statistical numbers and in the history books with more than 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns in his career as he prepares to play his last game as a Bulldog at Bronco Stadium Saturday.

The senior signal caller teamed up with Fresno State team physician Eric Hanson, along with Fresno's Well Community Church and the Integrated Tribal Development program to help many villagers in Thailand restore fresh, clean water.

"The idea to do the trip was inspired from my faith," said Colburn. "I am a Christian and that's where the calling came from. I was feeling a calling to serve and to get myself plugged in somewhere. This is the only time in the calendar year I can be gone for two weeks away from football and it was an incredible experience."

Dog bones

• Fresno State has won seven of its last 10 games against teams from BCS conferences and is 4-1 in bowl games against BCS teams under Hill.

• The Bulldogs are plus-37 in turnover margin under Hill. FSU is 69-7 in those games when it has fewer turnovers than its opponents.

• FSU was one of only four non-BCS teams to defeat two BCS opponents this season. Boise State, TCU and Utah were the others.

• Fresno State suspended starting weakside linebacker Kyle Knox as well as reserves receiver Matt Lindsay and linebacker Daniel Salinas for Saturday's game. Knox was second on the team in tackles this season.

Free tickets

Fresno fans are known for their fierce loyalty and as a thank you, the athletics department is offering students free tickets to the Humanitarian Bowl.

Killer stat

The underdog is 9-1 straight up and 10-0 against the spread in Fresno State’s last 10 bowl games.

Weather

The Bulldogs may be out of their element Saturday with the forecast calling for snow and wind in Boise. Game-time temperatures will be in the mid 20s with gusts reaching up to 20 mph at Broncos Stadium.

New Orleans Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

New Orleans Bowl: Ohio Bobcats vs. Troy Trojans (-3, 57)

Troy and Ohio fell short of their ultimate goals, but will get a chance to go out with a victory when they meet at the New Orleans Bowl on Dec.18.

Both the Trojans and Bobcats earned at-large bowl bids out of the Sun Belt and MAC, respectively. Troy (7-5, 6-2 Sun Belt, 4-8 ATS) had to settle for a share of the Sun Belt title and has either won the conference outright or shared the conference title five consecutive seasons. The Trojans only earned a share of the title due to Florida International’s season-ending loss to Middle Tennessee.

Ohio (8-4, 6-2 MAC East, 8-4 ATS) started the season 1-3, which included a loss to Toledo in its conference opener. The Bobcats then reeled off seven straight wins and were a victory away from the MAC title game before losing to Kent State in their season finale.

Ohio essentially earned this bid with its win over Temple. Both the Bobcats and Owls went 8-4 this season, but the Bobcats won the head-to-head and the Owls are one of two bowl eligible teams that did not get a bid.

Point Spread

The Trojans are a slight 1.5-point favorite and the oddsmakers expect some fireworks with the total at 58.

Troy’s Edge

Troy has a balanced offense and ranks 24th in the country in total offense at 441.08 yards per game. The Trojans don’t just rack up yards, they put up points too, scoring nearly 33 per game (32.92) to rank 27th in the country.

Ohio’s Edge

The Bobcats are solid on defense and special teams, a pretty good combination that helps out any offense.

Ohio ranks 14th in rushing defense (115.0 yards) and 28th in total defense allowing 332.67 yards. The Bobcats also led the MAC and rank ninth in the country in net punting at 39.36 yards.

The Quarterbacks

Troy’s Corey Robinson had a solid season, throwing for 3,320 yards and 24 touchdowns with 15 interceptions.

His favorite target is Jerrel Jernigan who has 74 receptions for 755 yards and five touchdowns. If the Trojans win this game it is likely Jernigan will have his fingerprints all over it as he has a pair of rushing scores, a punt return touchdown and a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown this season.

While Robinson could win it for Troy, Ohio likely just wants Boo Jackson to be steady and not lose it.

Robinson completed 60 percent of his passes this season but threw for only 1,688 yards and 15 touchdowns with 16 interceptions. Limiting mistakes and keeping Robinson and Jernigan off the field will be key for Ohio.

NFL Prospects

Troy - WR Jernigan; RB DuJuan Harris.

Ohio - CB Julian Posey; DT Ernie Hodge

Bowl History

The Bobcats will be playing in their fifth bowl game and their third under coach Frank Solich. Ohio is 0-4 in bowl games and lost the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl in Detroit last year 21-17 to Marshall.

Troy is making its fifth bowl appearance in the last seven years. The Trojans fell in double overtime to Central Michigan in last year's GMAC Bowl.

The Trojans and Bobcats had two common opponents during the 2010 season. Both teams played and defeated Bowling Green and UL Lafayette.

New Mexico Bowl Preview: BYU Cougars vs UTEP Miners
By Jeff Mattingly

BYU wasn’t looking like a postseason team early in the season and earned a berth in the New Mexico Bowl by winning five of its last seven games. The Cougars will be making their sixth consecutive bowl appearance and have gone 3-2 in such games under current head coach Bronco Mendenhall. “We’re really motivated,” said Mendenhall. “I think having controlled the Utah game from beginning to end and not winning is playing into it.” The team dropped a disheartening 17-16 regular-season finale to in-state rival Utah on November 27. BYU is 10-14 ATS as a favorite the last three years.

The Cougars lead the all-time series with UTEP 28-7-1 and have won 20 of the last 22 meetings overall. BYU will be led into this contest by quarterback Jake Heaps, who will become the first-ever freshman signal caller to start a bowl game in program history. He holds freshman records in passing yards, pass attempts, pass completions, games started and games won. The team has a good chance in capturing another victory on Saturday afternoon, coming in with a 26-6 record against current Conference-USA opponents.

UTEP makes its first postseason appearance since the 2005 season and has posted a 5-7 record in school history in bowl play. “We’re excited about renewing our long-standing rivalry with BYU in the New Mexico Bowl,” said coach Mike Price. “It’s a great opportunity for our fans to drive down for the game, enjoy postseason play and take in the great city of Albuquerque.” The Miners and Cougars have shared one common opponent this season, with each picking up impressive 38-20 and 40-7 victories respectively versus New Mexico. UTEP is 0-2 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest.

The Miners are led by senior quarterback Trevor Vittatoe, who rates 15th on the all-time passing list with 12,194 passing yards and 18th in passing touchdowns (94). He has started all 48 games in his collegiate career and will look to improve upon averaging 155.7 yards passing over his last six games. UTEP is 5-3 versus Mountain West Conference schools since the WAC split following the 1998 season. It’s also important to note that this program has won its final game of the season just once in the last 23 years.

Bettors will likely back the Cougars due to their 3-1 ATS mark when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while the Miners are 8-21 ATS following a spread win.

Humanitarian Bowl Preview: Fresno State vs Northern Illinois
By Jeff Mattingly

Fresno State makes a trip back to Boise, Idaho to make its 11th bowl appearance in 12 years against the Northern Illinois Huskies in the Humanitarian Bowl. The Bulldogs will be making their 23rd bowl appearance in school history and currently have an 11-11 all-time record. “Boise is a great football town with great fan support, not only for their hometown Broncos but for college football in general,” said head coach Pat Hill. “Our two previous trips were special and memorable for our team and we had two historic wins for our program.” The team has dropped its last two bowl appearances, both against Mountain West teams in the New Mexico Bowl. Fresno State is 7-7 ATS as an underdog the last three years.

The Bulldogs will be facing off against a MAC opponent for the first time since the 2008 season when they earned a 55-54 double overtime in at Toledo. Fresno State is 11-4 all-time against teams from that particular conference. Offensively, the team is led by two-year starting quarterback Ryan Colburn, who passed for 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions during the regular season. The defense likes to get after the quarterback and defensive end Chris Carter leads the unit with a team-high 11 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss.

Northern Illinois is set to play in a school-record third consecutive bowl and will be playing on Saturday without coach Jerry Kill, as he accepted the head coaching position at Minnesota. “I don’t expect us to go into the tank at all,” said quarterback Chandler Harnish. “I expect us to get better.” He makes a good point with the program being led by 21 seniors on the roster and looking to end the season on a high note. The two teams have one mutual opponent in Illinois, as the Huskies dropped a 28-22 contest in Champaign in Week 3, while the Bulldogs captured a 25-23 victory at the same venue. Northern Illinois is 0-2 ATS versus WAC opponents the last three years.

The Huskies were the only team in the country to win ten games in the regular season while playing only five home games. Northern Illinois led the MAC in rushing offense, total offense, scoring offense and ranked in the Top 25 in the country in all three categories. The program has been known for a vaunted rushing attack and this year’s unit ranks seventh in the country and led the MAC by gaining 264.8 yards per game. Running back Chad Spann earned the Mid-American Conference MVP Award and will look to bounce back from a disappointing 54-yard performance against Miami Ohio.

Bettors will likely back the Bulldogs due to their 4-0 ATS record in bowls as an underdog, while the Huskies are 9-1-1 ATS overall.

New Orleans Bowl Preview: Ohio Bobcats at Troy Trojans
By Jeff Mattingly

Ohio certainly feels fortunate in filling an at-large spot in the New Orleans Bowl and facing off with Sun Belt Conference co-champion Troy inside the Louisiana Superdome. The Bobcats knew it was expected to come down to them and Temple in filling this spot and coach Frank Solich was glad to be called upon. “It’s been a tough week for us, waiting around like this,” he commented. “We had a chance to control our own destiny, but didn’t get it done.” The Bobcats have made four previous bowl appearances, including a 21-17 loss versus Marshall in last year’s Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. Ohio is 7-4 ATS on the season and 0-2 ATS versus the Sun Belt Conference the past three seasons.

The Bobcats finished the regular season with a 8-4 record and can point to many statistics to signify their success. Ohio ranked fourth in the country in red zone touchdown percentage and was tied for 17th in the nation in red zone offense, scoring on 88 percent of its opportunities. This season, the team has also encountered the second fewest third downs of any team in the nation (132), which may be an important stat considering the Troy Trojans found themselves in 185 third-down situations. Offensively, the unit has put up 336 points, while its 28.0 points per game average is on pace to be the seventh-highest in school history. The program has never won a postseason game, going 0-2 in MAC Championship games and 0-4 all-time in bowl games.

Troy will be making its third appearance in this game and will get a chance to play the Ohio Bobcats on the football field for the first time in program history. “We are all very excited,” said coach Larry Blakeney. “We have talked all season about ‘The Drive for Five’ and part of that was to get back to New Orleans.” Blakeney did face the opposing head coach in this contest three times when the Trojans faced off against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in three consecutive seasons starting in 2001. Solich came out on the winning end in each of those contests. The Trojans are playing their fifth bowl game in seven seasons, losing to Central Michigan in the 2010 GMAC Bowl in double overtime last year. Troy is 20-17 ATS over the last three years.

The Trojans are 14-10 all-time in games played in December, including a 7-6 mark under Blakeney. Troy desperately needs to sure up its defense to remain competitive in this contest, as the unit has given up 372 points on the season, the second most in school history (387). Many Sun Belt Conference experts suggest the main problem for the defense has been having just three players start all 12 games. Turnovers are likely to play a major role in determining the winner of this contest, with the Trojans posting a 28-4-1 record in games in which they have not committed a miscue.

Bettors are likely to back the Bobcats due to their 4-0 ATS mark as an underdog of 0.5 to 3 points, while the Trojans are 21-10-1 ATS following a win.