Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Ohio Bobcats vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
The fans at Ford Field will be treated to a game between the Ohio Bobcats and the Marshall Thundering Herd when they take their seats for the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Bobcats listed as 3-point favorites versus the Thundering Herd, while the game's total is sitting at 49.
Ohio was defeated 20-10 by Central Michigan in Week 14 as a 13.5-point underdog. That game's 30 points went UNDER the posted total of 57.
Brian Anderson threw for 348 yards, three touchdowns, and three INTs for Marshall in a 52-21 loss to UTEP in Week 13.
The Herd did not cover the 1.5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 59.5.
Team records:
Ohio: 9-4 SU, 8-4 ATS
Marshall: 6-6 SU, 6-5 ATS
Ohio most recently:
When playing in December are 0-1
When playing on turf are 8-2
After being outgained are 10-0
When playing outside the conference are 3-7
Marshall most recently:
When playing in December are 9-1
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the conference are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
Ohio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Marshall
Ohio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Ohio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Ohio is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Marshall
Marshall is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Ohio
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Marshall's last 10 games
Marshall is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Marshall is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Ohio
Meineke Car Care: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
The North Carolina Tar Heels and the Pittsburgh Panthers will both be gunning for a victory when they meet at Bank of America Stadium in the Meineke Car Care.
Oddsmakers currently have the Panthers listed as 2-point favorites versus the Tar Heels, while the game's total is sitting at 44½.
T.J. Yates threw for 275 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception for North Carolina in a 28-27 loss to N.C. State in Week 13.
The Tar Heels failed to cover the 6-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 55.
Dion Lewis ran for 194 yards and three touchdowns for Pittsburgh in a 45-44 loss to Cincinnati in Week 14.
The Panthers failed to cover the 1.5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 56.
Team records:
North Carolina: 8-4 SU, 5-5 ATS
Pittsburgh: 9-3 SU, 6-5 ATS
North Carolina most recently:
When playing in December are 4-2
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 8-2
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing outside the conference are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
North Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Emerald Bowl: Boston College Eagles vs. Southern Cal Trojans
The Boston College Eagles and the Southern Cal Trojans will both be gunning for a victory when they meet at AT&T Park in the Emerald Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Trojans listed as 7-point favorites versus the Eagles, while the game's total is sitting at 44.
Boston College held off a late push from Maryland for a 19-17 win at Byrd Stadium in Week 13.
Maryland covered as a 4.5-point home underdog while the final score played UNDER the 46-point total.
An unmotivated Southern Cal squad was downed 21-17 by Arizona at the Los Angeles Coliseum in Week 14.
Arizona covered as a 7-point road underdog while the final score played UNDER the 49.5-point total.
Team records:
Boston College: 8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS
Southern Cal: 8-4 SU, 3-9 ATS
Boston College most recently:
When playing in December are 7-3
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 8-2
Southern Cal most recently:
When playing in December are 5-4
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing outside the conference are 10-0
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston College's last 5 games
Boston College is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Southern Cal is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
Southern Cal is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
OHIO U (9 - 4) vs. MARSHALL (6 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
N CAROLINA (8 - 4) vs. PITTSBURGH (9 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
BOSTON COLLEGE (8 - 4) vs. USC (8 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
USC is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
OHIO vs. MARSHALL
Ohio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Marshall
Ohio is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Marshall
Marshall is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Marshall's last 10 games
NORTH CAROLINA vs. PITTSBURGH
North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
North Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
BOSTON COLLEGE vs. SOUTHERN CAL
Boston College is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston College's last 5 games
Southern Cal is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Southern Cal is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
Ohio vs. Marshall
Ohio
7-1 ATS off ATS win
4-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
Marshall
22-11 Under in all games
6-1 Under after allowing 42+ points
North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
North Carolina
4-0 ATS off SU conference loss as favorite of -6 or more
6-1 ATS after allowing 100 or less rushing yards
Pittsburgh
38-62 ATS off SU loss
1-6 ATS vs. ACC
Boston College vs. USC
Boston College
24-9 Under Away off ATS loss
7-2 ATS off conference win by 3pts or less
USC
0-7 ATS December road games
6-0 Under off SU loss
Ohio U: Bobcats 1-7 SU and 5-2 ATS vs Herd… Solich: 6-1 ATS vs non conference opp off loss
Marshall: 6-2 SU and ATS as bowlers… 2-6 ATS L8 vs MAC opp
North Carolina: 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS L7 bowl games… 107th ranked offense averaged 311 YPG
Pittsburgh: Wannstedt 20-9 SU and 16-9 ATS versus sub .666 opp… 3-8 SU and ATS L11 bowl games
Boston College: Emerald Bowl dogs 5-1 ATS… 1st year coaches are 4-12 ATS as bowlers vs opp won 10 or more games LY
USC: PAC 10 bowlers are 10-2 SU and ATS last two years… PAC 10 bowlers are: 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS vs ACC opp
Saturday's Bowl Tips
By Brian Edwards
Gamblers have three bowl games Saturday starting at 1:00 Eastern and lasting until around midnight. Let's take an in-depth look at all three contests.
**Ohio vs. Marshall**
These teams will square off Saturday afternoon in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit. Kick-off is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Ohio (9-4 straight up, 9-4 against the spread) as a four-point favorite with a total of 47. As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had the Bobcats favored by three with the total adjusted to 49. The Thundering Herd are plus-130 on the money line (risk $100 to win $130).
Marshall (6-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) will be led into its first postseason appearance since 2004 by interim coach Rick Minter, the former head coach at Cincinnati. After going 6-6 in Mark Snyder’s fifth year at the helm, the head coach was dismissed (although “resigned” was the word that was used; wink, wink). Doc Holliday has been named as his successor, inking a five-year deal late last week.
Marshall wants to control the clock and run the football. The Thundering Herd like to do so with workhorse running back Darius Marshall, who rushed for 1,054 yards during the regular season. Marshall averages 5.1 yards per carry and had 11 rushing touchdowns.
Marshall QB Brian Anderson has mostly been inconsistent, completing 57.5 percent of his passes for 2,561 yards. Anderson has a 14/13 touchdown-interception ratio.
Frank Solich’s team is led by senior quarterback Theo Scott, who has 2,258 passing yards and a 19/10 TD-INT ratio. Scott can also get it done scrambling, as evidenced by 82 rushing yards in a win at Bowling Green and a pair of TD scampers in a victory over Temple.
Ohio won the MAC’s Eastern Division by virtue of its 35-17 home win over the Owls as a two-point home underdog. The Bobcats lost a 20-10 decision to Central Michigan in the MAC title game at Ford Field. However, they covered the spread as 13 ½-point underdogs even though Scott was nursing a sore hamstring.
Marshall is 4-4 ATS as an underdog this season, while Ohio owns a 3-3 spread record in six single-digit ‘chalk’ spots.
The ‘under’ is 8-3 overall for Marshall, 7-6 overall for Ohio.
**North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh**
These teams will meet in Charlotte for the Meineke Car Care Bowl. LVSC opened Pittsburgh (9-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) as a two-point favorite with a total of 47. As of Thursday afternoon, most spots had the Panthers favored by 2 ½ with the total reduced to 44. UNC is plus-120 to win outright (risk $100 to win $120).
North Carolina (8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) saw its four-game winning streak both SU and ATS end in its regular-season finale, a 28-27 loss at N.C. St. as a 5 ½-point road favorite.
During the third season of Butch Davis’ tenure, UNC is going bowling for a second straight year. In fact, the Tar Heels went to this exact bowl game in 2008, losing a heartbreaker 31-30 to West Virginia in an absolute thriller. On the bright side, at least for UNC backers, it took the cash as a two-point underdog.
This UNC team is all about a defense that ranked first in the ACC in run defense and overall defense. The Heels gave up just 16.9 points per game.
Junior QB T.J. Yates had a shaky campaign, posting a mediocre 12/14 TD-INT ratio.
Pitt jumped out to a 9-1 start before losing a pair of heartbreakers to close the regular season. In the Backyard Brawl in Morgantown, WVU beat the Panthers 19-16 as a one-point home favorite. The following week, Cincinnati rallied in the final minute to win 45-44 at Pitt. Although it was little solace for Dave Wannstedt’s program, the Panthers did take the cash as 1 ½-point home underdogs against the Bearcats.
UNC has won outright in each of its last five games against ranked foes.
Pitt senior QB Bill Stull enjoyed a stellar campaign, connecting on 64.6 percent of his passes for 2,470 yards with an excellent 21/8 TD-INT ratio.
Wannstedt and Davis go way back. They were both on a Miami staff under Jimmy Johnson that won a national championship. They also served under Johnson to win two Super Bowls with the Dallas Cowboys.
Pitt is 4-3 ATS as a single-digit favorite this year. Meanwhile, UNC went 3-1 both SU and ATS as an underdog. The Tar Heels won outright at Va. Tech, at BC and vs. Miami.
The ‘under’ is 7-3 in Pitt’s last 10 games, while the ‘over’ is on a 3-0 run for UNC. The ‘over’ is 6-5 overall for the Tar Heels.
These schools met in 1998 and 2000 with the Tar Heels winning both games and covering the number.
ESPN will provide television coverage at 4:30 p.m. Eastern.
**Boston College vs. Southern Cal**
These teams will meet in San Francisco for the Emerald Bowl at AT&T Park, where both teams are on the same sideline due to the layout of the baseball stadium. The odd dynamic is almost comparable to a basketball game at Vandy, where the benches are located under each basket rather than on the sidelines.
LVSC opened USC (8-4 SU, 3-9 ATS) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 47. That line moved up to nine for a few weeks, but the number was back down to 7 ½ at most spots Thursday afternoon. The total is down to 43 1/2, while the Eagles are plus-230 on the money line (risk $100 to win $230).
The line has moved from nine down to 7 ½ because of three USC suspensions (to two starters) and the potential absence of RB Joe McKnight. Senior TE Anthony McCoy is “out” along with starting OT Tyron Smith. McCoy is the Trojans’ third-leading receiver with 22 receptions for 457 yards and one touchdown. McCoy averages 20.8 yards per catch.
McKnight has been under investigation by the NCAA for his use of an SUV that was chronicled in a Los Angeles Times report last week. He didn’t travel with the team initially, but McKnight joined his teammates at Thursday’s practice. Nevertheless, it remains unclear if he’ll play and he’s considered “questionable.” McKnight leads USC in rushing yards (1,014) and rushing TDs with eight. He averages 6.2 yards per carry and also has 22 catches for 146 receiving yards.
USC limps into its first non-BCS bowl game since 2001. The Trojans lost three of their last five games, including a 21-17 home loss to Arizona as seven-point favorites in their regular-season finale. They are an atrocious 1-6 ATS in their last seven outings.
Boston College (8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) won three of its last four games, but the Eagles finished the regular season with three straight non-covers. They beat Maryland 19-17 in their finale but failed to cover as 4 ½-point road favorites.
Frank Spaziani took over for Jeff Jagodzinski after ‘Jag’ was fired for interviewing for the Jets’ head-coaching job. Spaziani, who had been an assistant in Chestnut Hill for a dozen seasons, led his team to eight wins despite losing the team’s heart and soul in All-American linebacker Mark Herzlich, who was diagnosed with cancer before the season started. Herzlich went through chemotherapy for months but is expected to make a full recovery and plans on rejoining the team for spring practice.
BC’s offense is all about sophomore RB Montel Harris, who garnered second-team All-ACC honors. Harris rushed for 1,355 yards and 13 TDs. The Eagles want to manage the clock and run the ball between the tackles with Harris, who is a workhorse that’s third in the country in carries. Harris, who averages 4.8 YPC, had at least 136 rushing yards in each of BC’s last four games. His carry totals in those games looked like this: 27, 38, 23 and 41.
USC has won three straight bowl games by 14 points or more, while BC has prevailed in four of its last five bowl appearances.
BC is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS as an underdog this year. Meanwhile, Pete Carroll’s squad is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS as a single-digit ‘chalk.’
The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for USC, 3-1 in its last four games. The ‘under’ is 6-5 overall for BC, 4-1 in its last five outings.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
West Virginia will be without a pair of defensive starters – Scooter Berry and Nate Sowers – against FSU in the Gator Bowl on New Year’s Day.
Great hire by Marshall in luring Holliday away from West Va. However, if Holliday is successful in his first head-coaching gig with the Thundering Herd, you would think the Mountaineers would target him as a top candidate whenever Bill Stewart’s tenure ends. And, that could be relatively soon and it’s basically a given that Holliday would jump back to Morgantown. He has spent more than two decades on the WVU staff under Don Nehlen, Rich Rodriguez and Stewart. Holliday also spent a year on Chuck Amato’s staff at North Carolina St. before spending several years at Florida on Urban Meyer’s staff. Holliday is well known for his recruiting connections in the fertile hotbed of South Florida in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties.
The Pac-10 is winless both SU and ATS in a pair of bowl games so far. Oregon St. got slammed 37-14 by BYU before Utah spanked Cal by a 37-27 count.
Tom Haire of USCFootball.com predicts a 20-10 Trojans’ win over BC. On the flip side, Marc McDonald of EaglesAction.com is calling for BC to pull a 20-19 upset. McDonald calls it a “coin flip as to whether or not USC shows up mentally.”
vegasinsider.com
Bowl season goes into high gear for sports bettors
By Doug Upstone
All the gifts have been opened and glad tidings shared. The gift cards (the new fruit cake) are stacked to never fit in the wallet and the return receipts are in a nice tidy bundle. For the sports bettor the first six bowl games were like the appetizer trey passed around the last 36 hours, good choices, but it is time to eat. Starting Saturday and for the next eight days, 24 bowl games will be televised to whet the insatiable appetite of even the most piggish of wagering junkie. Without further ado, let get this party started.
Little Caesars Bowl
Marshall vs. Ohio U
Ford Field - Detroit
Little Caesar's Pizza takes over sponsorship of the game more commonly known as the Motor City Bowl. Former conference rivals will square off in the 2009 rendition, as Ohio U. and Marshall meet. The Bobcats (9-4 SU & ATS) are seeking their first 10-win season in 31 years and return to scene where they lost MAC championship to Central Michigan. Marshall (6-6, 6-5-1 ATS) is in first bowl since 2004, which wasn't enough to prevent from coach Mark Snyder being forced to resign. Interim coach Rick Minter takes over as the Thundering Herd look to have first winning campaign in six years.
Marshall was a regular participant in this bowl at the turn of the century making four straight trips. The Thundering Herd is 5-2 SU and ATS as a bowler, however just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS vs. those also playing in bowls. Ohio U. has never won a bowl in three previous tries, falling in the GMAC Bowl in 2007 and losing twice in the 1960's. The Bobcats split games vs. other bowl teams, with sharp 5-1 ATS mark. The MAC is 2-5 SU and ATS in last seven contests.
Why watch and wager -Ohio is favored by 2.5-points at Betonline.com, won three of last four, covered each time and will have regular coach Frank Solich as their leader. Marshall finished 1-3 SU and ATS and will have coach looking for another job at the completion of this bowl game. If Bobcats quarterback Theo Scott has more touchdowns than picks, Ohio is 6-0 SU. The players from Athens are 7-1 ATS after one or more consecutive covers this season. Marshall has offensive limitations and feeds running back Darius Marshall (ironic) a load of times, hoping he gets hot vs. ordinary Ohio run D. The Thundering Herd is anything but with 8-22 ATS record having lost two out of last three contests. Motivation is on the side of Ohio, seeking first-ever bowl victory and the most coveted trophy in college football, The Deep Dish Large Pizza (crazy bread included). For geography buffs, these schools are a mere 90 miles apart.
Meineke Car Care Bowl
North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
Bank of American Stadium - Charlotte
Charlotte hosts its eighth annual bowl game pitting the ACC vs. the Big East. For the second straight year, North Carolina (8-4, 6-5 ATS) plays in its home state, taking on Pittsburgh. This is actually the third time since 2004 that the Tar Heels play in this bowl and they come in 4-1 SU and ATS. Pittsburgh (9-3, 6-4-1 ATS) looks to pick up the pieces of shattered BCS dreams, as the Panthers were a minute away from ending Cincinnati's Cinderella season and making a trip to the Sugar Bowl. Coach Dave Wannstedt still has something to sell his team as they could be the first 10-win Pittsburgh squad since Dan Marino wore the blue and gold 28 years ago.
Both teams suffered disappointing season ending losses and North Carolina is 12-14 all-time in bowl matchups, with winning spread record of 10-6-2 ATS. The Tar Heels are 5-3-1 ATS as bowl underdogs and were 5-3 and .500 ATS against other bowl squads. Pittsburgh has failed to win or cover last three bowl assignments and is 10-15 and 7-10 ATS in their history. The Panthers are 4-2 and 3-3 ATS vs. those also playing after the regular season. The Big East is 2-4 ATS in this contest.
Why watch and wager - Difficult bowl game to gauge range of emotions. Pittsburgh could be more chagrined than a Republican about the health care bill and fail to take winnable contest at home against Bearcats. North Carolina has shown more range of emotions than Robert Downey Jr. in Sherlock Holmes. The Tar Heels started 3-0, lost three of four, won and covered four in a row and filled a diaper at N.C. State. If emotions plays no part, than turnovers have to for North Carolina to win, since their offense isn't good enough to emerge victorious on its own. The Heels are 13-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. For Pittsburgh, they traded Bourbon Street beads for car parts. The Panthers have to attack with explosive pass catches TE Dorin Dickerson and Jonathan Baldwin early, which loosens up above average UNC defensive line for diminutive Dion Lewis to scoot thru. Pitt is 2.5-point favorite with total of 44.5, yet is 3-7 ATS when picked by three or fewer points.
Emerald Bowl
Boston College vs. USC
AT&T Park - San Francisco
The 2009 season will be looked upon as a disappointment for USC (8-4, 3-9 ATS), as the Trojans finished the season with four losses, their most since 01. Playing in this level of bowl game is unfamiliar territory for USC, but Trojans defense allowed more than 35 points three times after having done so twice prior to this season since Pete Carroll was coach. Boston College (8-4, 6-5 ATS) was inconsistent in their first season under coach Frank Spaziani, but reached a bowl for the 11th straight year despite being picked to finish last in the ACC's Atlantic Division in the league's preseason poll.
This is USC's first non-BCS bowl game since 2001 and they have spectacular 31-16 all-time bowl mark with 13-12 ATS record. Under coach Carroll, they are 6-2 SU and ATS. One of the few schools that could match the Trojans postseason prowess is Boston College, who saw their eight-game bowl streak snapped last year in the Music City matchup. The Eagles are 13-7 and 10-7 ATS, with 5-3 ATS mark as underdogs. Underdogs are rock solid 5-1 ATS in San Fran and with the total at 44, all three tilts that had totals of 46 or less show underdogs 3-0 SU & ATS.
Why watch and wager - People can't turn away from car wrecks and mishaps and USC qualifies as both. After seven straight Pac-10 titles and matching number of BCS bids, coach Carroll's fun-loving crew plays in a converted baseball stadium. No, the Trojans aren't using Joe McKnight's Range Rover connection to arrive at AT&T Park and freshman Matt Barkley won't have important offensive weapons to use once again. USC is 19-6 ATS with two weeks or more to prepare. Boston College also starts a freshman signal caller, he just happens to be 25-year old Dave Shinskie. The Eagles offensive line has to open holes for RB Montel Harris, which sets up WR Rich Gunnell for play-action passes. B.C.'s goal is slow the game down and remind older USC players that this is the Emerald Bowl, not a more prestigious contest. The Eagles are catching 7.5 points with total at 44 and they are 13-3 as 3.5 to 10-point underdogs.
What Bettors Need To Know: Little Caesars Bowl
By Lee Kostroski
Line movements
The line opened with Ohio as a 3 to 3.5 point favorite and hasn’t wavered much. The Bobcats are currently favored by 3. The total opened at 50 and dipped slightly to 49.
The skinny
Ohio won seven of its last eight regular season games to make it to the MAC Championship against Central Michigan. The team lost by 10 points to the Chippewas to finish 9-4 on the season.
The Bobcats’ four losses came against UConn, Tennessee, Kent State and the previously mentioned MAC Championship loss to Central Michigan (finished 9-4 ATS on the season).
This will be the second bowl appearance in the last four years but just their third since 1968. They lost to Southern Miss in the 2006 GMAC Bowl 28-7. In that game, they were 3 for 15 on third downs, completed just 15 of 37 passes and had 22 carries for 47 yards.
It was a classic case of bowl first-timers that were psyched to be in a bowl and satisfied with the appearance.
Marshall finished the season 6-6 and is playing in its first bowl game since 2004. Despite the bowl appearance, Marshall fired its head coach and interim Rick Minter will be coaching the bowl game. West Virginia assistant Doc Holliday will take the reigns when this game concludes.
How will that affect the coaches, many of which will move on to different jobs after this game?
We know Minter really wanted the job, so will his preparation be thorough now that he has been passed over? Hard to know for sure but it’s definitely not a positive development.
It was a season of “what could’ve been” for the Thundering Herd, losing multiple close games to quality football teams. Three of their six losses (all to bowl teams) came by a TD or less. The chance was there to have a much better season.
Marshall’s Marshall
Marshall doesn’t boast great offensive rankings by any means, but the program does have one dangerous weapon: Darius Marshall. The running back rushed for over 1000 yards for the second consecutive year and has 11 touchdowns and a 5.1 yards per carry average.
Darius Marshall has the potential to have a big day against this Ohio defense. The Bobcats’ last four opponents all rushed for over 100 yards.
Ohio’s offense
After starting the season 2-2, the Bobcats settled their quarterback controversy and reeled off seven wins in eight games. QB Theo Scott finished with 2,258 passing yards and 19 touchdowns along with three rushing touchdowns.
Scott was banged up late in the year and was not at 100 percent for the MAC Championship game. He should be healthy for this one.
The Bobcats don’t have the strongest running attack – their leading rusher finished with 591 yards and 3 TDs.
It may not matter how strong Ohio’s running game is if Marshall’s defense plays like it has in the last four weeks of the regular season. The unit allowed an average of 32.8 points and 403 offensive yards over the stretch. It’s no coincidence the Herd finished 1-3 straight up and against the spread.
Critical question
The main question for nearly every Bowl game is: which team wants to be here more? You can usually find some value if you can figure this out.
Is it the Bobcats, who lost the MAC Championship game which, had they won, would’ve put them in a more prestigious bowl game?
Or is it the Thundering Herd, who lost four of their last six and are playing under an interim/lame duck head coach?
Marshall hasn’t gone bowling since 2004 and Ohio since 2006, so both teams should be excited to be in the postseason. We’ll find out for sure on Saturday.
Trends
These two haven’t met since 2004 but Ohio is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Ohio is 4-0 ATS in its last four games and 7-2 ATS in its last nine nonconference games.
Marshall is 5-1 ATS in its last six bowl games but just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 nonconference games and 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. MAC.
The under is 5-1 in the Bobcats’ last six games as favorites. The Thundering Herd also played under the total in eight of their last 10 games overall..
Weather
This one is being played indoors at Ford Field in Detroit.
What Bettors Need To Know: Meineke Car Care Bowl
By Nick Parsons
The preservation of college football tradition continues on Boxing Day when the sixth best ACC team takes on a Big East team that wishes its season was over.
North Carolina plays No. 17 Pittsburgh Panthers in the Meinke Car Care Bowl, which was formally called the Continental Tire Bowl, and before that called the Queen City Bowl.
The Odds
The spread for the game opened at -3 in favor of Pitt and has since moved a half point down to -2.5.
The Panthers posted a decent 7-4 ATS record this year, but they are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games. Last year's appearance in the Sun Bowl produced a yawning 3-0 loss to Oregon State.
North Carolina was 6-5 ATS this year, but ended the season on a 4-1 ATS run.
This is North Carolina's third appearance in this bowl game and the program is still searching for its first victory. In last year's contest, the Heels lost 31-30 to West Virginia, but covered as 2.5-point dogs.
The total is set at 44.5 at most sportsbooks. North Carolina is 6-5 on totals this year with its last three games going over by an average of eight points.
Pitt has been one of the best under teams this season, even though it ranked 16th in points scored per game at 33.2.
Consensus opinion for this game is on Pitt to cover, about 65 percent, while thoughts on the total are split down the middle.
Does Pitt give a Car Care?
On paper Pitt appears to be the better team with the Big East having one of its better years and UNC finishing in the middle of the pack in the ACC. But you can't blame the Panthers for a lack of motivation going into this bowl game after closing out the season with two heartbreaking losses and missing out on the Sugar Bowl.
The coaching staff has done its best to motivate its players with "Let's Be Different, End With 10" signs all over their practice field and head coach Dave Wannstedt claims that his players care.
"Our kids are talking about [the bowl game] and they have started to watch the tape, so now I can sense that our guys are getting into the challenges."
Still, it’s hard to ignore those last two setbacks. They loss a tight 19-16 game to West Virginia on the road and their one-point loss to the Bearcats was the product of a blown 31-10 lead and a missed extra point attempt at the end of the game.
Does Location Matter?
The Tar Heels experienced their own setback to close the year, losing by one point to NC State, but they have the benefit of playing close to home with this game being held in Charlotte. Although they came up short in their previous two appearances in this bowl and some early results this year seem to downplay the effects of home-field advantage.
Central Florida’s lost to Rutgers in the St Petersburg Bowl, while Southern Miss fell to MTSU in the New Orleans Bowl.
Still, North Carolina does have the personal to pull off a win. UNC has the No. 6 ranked defense in the nation and the team was particularly good at stopping the run allowing only 92.8 yards per game.
Statement for 2010
Even with all of this year's disappointments, Panthers backers can find some solace in the fact that the star player on Pitt is only a freshman with much to look forward to. RB Dion Lewis has already been awarded several freshman of the year honors after rushing for 1635 yards and 16 TDs.
A big performance against the Tar Heels would jumpstart his 2010 Heisman Campaign.
For North Carolina QB T.J. Yates has everything to lose in this game. He has had an up and down year with a 12-to-14 TD to INT ratio and the Junior will need to have a decent game to save his job for next year.
Everyone expects talented freshman Bryn Renner to start next year.
What Bettors Need To Know: Emerald Bowl
By Ben Burns
What is USC’s mindset coming into the Emerald Bowl?
That’s the No. 1 question facing handicappers betting Saturday’s tilt between the embattled Trojans (8-4, 3-9 ATS) and an overachieving Boston College squad.
For starters, there’s no way the Trojans, who have played in seven consecutive BCS bowls, could be 100 percent motivated for the Emerald Bowl. Then, an off-the-field controversy that may rule out star tailback Joe McKnight pops up, in addition to three other key players being ruled ineligible. It all spells distraction.
But it’s still S.C. Surely Pete Carroll has stockpiled enough talent to overwhelm a middle-of-the-pack ACC squad, right?
On the other side of the ball, Boston College defied downtrodden preseason expectations to go 8-4 (6-5 ATS). During a depressing offseason, the Eagles coach was fired, their best defender was diagnosed with cancer and their starting quarterback was kicked off the team.
But longtime defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani took over as head coach and pieced together a solid campaign that has B.C. bowling for a ninth straight season.
Without question, the Eagles are the more excited team to be in San Francisco.
Injuries, suspensions
USC: McKnight, the Trojans’ leading rusher and most dynamic playmaker, is a huge factor. Signs point to him not playing Saturday, but nothing was official as of Tuesday.
He didn’t travel with the team when it left for San Francisco on Monday. Pete Carroll released a statement on the Trojans’ Web site that said, "[McKnight] has some paperwork he needs to do and it's best for him to stay in L.A. so he can be available to finish it. We don’t know right now how long this will take.”
With Southern Cal already under investigation by the NCAA, it’s hard to believe they’d take any chances with playing McKnight.
Plus, the Trojans are deep at running back, with C.J. Gable and Allen Bradford capable backs. Bradford, however, missed practice time this week after tweaking his knee. But he is expected to play.
Starting tight end Anthony McCoy and starting offensive tackle Tyron Smith, a pair of honorable mention Pac-10 players, were among three players ruled ineligible Monday.
The Trojans also will be without starting senior cornerback Josh Pinkard. Sophomore T.J. Bryant could get his first career start in place of Pinkard. Shareece Wright, who hasn’t played this season due to eligibility issues, also is expected to see action.
Boston College: The Eagles have no significant injuries.
Line movement
The Trojans opened up as 9-point favorites. The line didn’t move much until the McKnight controversy revved up over the weekend and was followed by the players, including two starters, being ruled ineligible.
As of Tuesday, the line was down to -7.5 at most online books and even -7 at the Las Vegas Hilton.
The total opened up at 43.5 and has gone up slightly to 44, with a few 44.5’s out there.
USC went 5-7 under with an average total of 49.75. The Trojans averaged 26.7 points per game and allowed 20.5 points.
The total of 44 is the lowest total on a USC game this season.
Boston College went 5-6 under with an average total just over 43. The Eagles scored 25.8 points and allowed 19.4.
Quarterbacks
USC’s Matt Barkley: The heralded true freshman went through more growing pains than some expected, throwing 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He did show some moxie in leading a game-winning drive at Ohio State, but overall it’s been an up-and-down year for Barkley.
However, coaches often say freshmen benefit the most from the additional bowl practices. “"If I play well . . . then we'll get that solid victory. We'll be able to get that confidence back, which should help our team as a whole,” Barkley told the Los Angeles Times.
Boston College’s Dave Shinskie: This time last season, the 25-year-old Shinskie was playing minor league baseball. He hadn’t played football since 2003.
Like Barkley, he’s a pocket passer but had an inconsistent season, throwing 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
Statistically speaking
USC: Strengths: Pass efficiency defense 16th; Scoring defense 16th; Scoring defense 22; Punt returns 7th; Sacks 17. Weaknesses: Passing offense 68th; kickoff returns 110th.
Boston College: Strengths: Rushing defense 16th; Scoring defense 18th; Sacks allowed 39th; Punt returns 28th. Weaknesses: Total offense: 98th; Passing offense 95th; Sacks 99th.
Despite USC’s struggles, it’s interesting that they are still ranked high in most power polls, including 13 in the Sagarin rankings. The Trojans have played the sixth toughest schedule in the nation.
Boston College is 40th in Sagarin rankings and had the 45th toughest schedule.
Ohio (9-4 SU and ATS) vs. Marshall (6-6, 6-5 ATS)
Ohio, back in the postseason after a two-year hiatus, makes the short trek to Ford Field to take on the Thundering Herd, who reached a bowl game for the first time since 2004.
The Bobcats went on a 7-1 SU tear (6-2 ATS) to win the Mid-American Conference’s East Division, earning a date with Central Michigan in the Dec. 4 conference title game. In that meeting, also held in Detroit, the Bobcats lost 20-10 to halt a four-game winning streak, but they covered as a hefty 13½-point underdog to finish the regular season on ATS surges of 9-2 and 4-0. Ohio, led by former Nebraska coach Frank Solich is seeking its first 10-win season since 1968
Marshall stumbled to the finish line in Conference USA, losing three of its last four games SU and ATS, including a 52-21 beatdown as a two-point road pup against Texas-El Paso on Nov. 28 to cap the regular season. The Herd failed to cover in their last three games, following a 6-1 ATS stretch (4-3 SU). Marshall defensive coordinator Rick Minter will serve as the head coach in this contest, taking over for Mark Snyder, who was pressured to resign after the season-ending loss at UTEP.
While Marshall hasn’t gone bowling since 2004, the Bobcats were last in the postseason in 2006, when they fell in the GMAC Bowl to Southern Miss (Conference USA) 28-7 as a six-point underdog.
With Marshall being a former MAC member, these teams used to meet annually. The Thundering Herd won four of the last five meetings, most recently winning 16-13 in October 2005, but Ohio went 4-1 ATS, including cashing a 10-point home ‘dog in that 2004 clash. Going back further, Marshall has won eight of the last nine SU against Ohio, but has cashed just four times in that stretch.
The Bobcats averaged 25.4 points and 324.5 yards per game, with 204.8 ypg coming through the air on the arm of QB Theo Scott, who finished with 2,258 passing yards, 19 TDs and 10 INTs. Ohio’s defense gave up just 21.3 ppg and 354.2 ypg, but 150.9 rushing ypg.
The Thundering Herd averaged 21.8 points and 355.3 ypg (216.5 passing, 138.8 rushing), but they gave up more on both counts, allowing 24.9 points and 392.5 yards per outing. QB Brian Anderson paced Marshall’s offense, throwing for 2,561 yards, but his 14 TDs were offset by 13 INTs.
Along with their current 4-0 ATS run, the Bobcats are on pointspread upswings of 8-1-1 following a spread-cover and 7-2 outside the MAC. Marshall is 3-9 ATS in its last dozen non-conference tilts and 1-4 ATS in its last five against the MAC, but the Herd sport positive ATS streaks of 6-1 in December and 5-1 in bowl games.
Ohio is on “under” runs of 5-1 as a favorite and 9-4 in non-conference contests, and the under is on a bundle of tears for Marshall, including 8-2 overall, 6-1 with the Herd as an underdog, 4-1 in bowl games, 4-1 outside Conference USA, 7-2 against winning teams, 4-1 after a SU loss and 10-4 after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
North Carolina (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. (17) Pittsburgh (9-3, 7-4 ATS)
The Panthers, who narrowly missed out on winning the Big East championship and earning a BCS bowl bid, instead drop down to a second-tier contest when they head to Bank of America Stadium to face North Carolina, which ostensibly will be playing a home game.
Pittsburgh went on a six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) to surge into BCS contention, then lost its last two games by a total of four points (1-1 ATS). In fact, the Panthers’ three defeats were by a total of 11 points. In the season finale against Cincinnati on Dec. 5, with the Big East title and BCS berth on the line, the Panthers raced out to a 31-10 second-quarter lead, but they couldn’t hold off a furious Bearcats rally, losing 45-44 on a TD pass in the waning seconds. Still, Pitt cashed as a 1½-point home pup, ending a two-game ATS hiccup.
North Carolina finished the regular season on a 4-1 SU and ATS run, including outright wins from the underdog role at Virginia Tech, against Miami at home and at Boston College. However, the Tar Heels fell to in-state rival North Carolina State in the Nov. 28 finale 28-27 as a 5½-point road chalk, but they still reached the postseason for a second straight year, after a three-year bowl hiatus.
The Panthers were dealt a 3-0 loss as a one-point pup in a yawner of a Sun Bowl last year, and they’ve failed to cash in their last four postseason games. Meanwhile, this is the Tar Heels’ second straight trip to the Meineke Car Care Bowl, having lost to West Virginia last year 31-30 as a two-point underdog. UNC is 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven postseason appearances.
These teams met twice in three seasons from 1998-2000, but they haven’t gotten together since. North Carolina took both those matchups SU and ATS, including a 20-17 road victory getting seven points in November 2000. In fact, the Tar Heels have cashed in each of five all-time lined clashes between these schools.
Freshman RB Dion Lewis racked up 1,635 rushing yards and 12 TDs, averaging 5.5 ypc for a potent Pitt rushing attack that put up 184.6 ypg among its 399.9 total ypg. Wideout Jonathan Baldwin (54 catches, 1,080 yards, 20 ypc, 8 TDs) also had a big year. The Panthers averaged 33.2 ppg, while the defense gave up 20 points and 323.9 total yards per game and also led the nation in sacks. Pitt’s defense yielded more than 22 points just three times all year..
Carolina had one of the nation’s least productive offenses, averaging just 311.3 ypg (107th out of 120 teams) while putting up 24.3 ppg, scoring more than 21 points just five times against Division I-A competition. However, the Tar Heels countered the sluggish offense by fielding the sixth-best total defense (267.8 ypg), which surrendered just 16.9 ppg.
Pitt is in ATS ruts of 3-8 as a favorite of three points or less and 2-5 against ACC opposition. But they are also on a 4-0 ATS run following a SU loss and are on additional spread-covering streaks of 4-1 in December and 7-3 as a chalk.
The Tar Heels are on pointspread surges of 5-2 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 after a non-cover, 12-3 catching three points or less and 5-2 outside the ACC.
The under has hit in six of Pitt’s last eight outings overall (5-1 in its last six as a favorite), but the over is 4-1 in the Panthers’ last five against the ACC and 5-1 in their last six as a chalk of three points or less. North Carolina is on “over” spurts of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in non-conference play, 7-2 with the Heels a ‘dog and 8-3 against Big East foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
Boston College (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. Southern Cal (8-4, 3-9 ATS)
The Trojans, perennial BCS contenders who completely fell apart this season, try to end things on a high note when they head up the Pacific Coast to AT&T Park to face Boston College.
Southern Cal was dealt an early-season upset loss at Washington, then dropped three of its last five games (1-4 ATS), ending a seven-year run in which it either won or shared the Pac-10 title. Two of those final three losses were stunning blowouts – a 47-20 setback at Oregon as a three-point road chalk, followed two weeks later by a 55-21 home wipeout to Stanford as an 11½-point favorite. The Trojans finished the regular season Dec. 5 with a 21-17 loss to Arizona as a seven-point home choice.
Boston College finished the year on a 4-2 SU surge to get bowl-eligible, capped by a 19-17 win at Maryland on Nov. 28, though it fell short as a 4½-point road favorite. That marked the third straight ATS setback for the Eagles, following a 5-1 ATS run. BC’s offense was less than impressive over the final three games (2-1 SU), getting held to 19 points or less in all three and totaling just 46 points (15.3 ppg).
USC crushed Penn State 38-24 in last year’s Rose Bowl, covering as a 9½-point favorite in improving to 6-1 ATS in their last seven bowl games (3-0 SU and ATS last three). The Eagles are in a bowl game for the 11th consecutive year, going 9-1 SU (6-4 ATS) in the previous 10 postseason appearances. However, B.C. has failed to cash in its last three bowl outings (2-1 SU).
USC scored 26.7 points and averaged 385.1 yards per contest with a fairly balanced attack (211.7 ypg passing, 173.4 ypg rushing). Defensively, the Trojans surrendered 20.4 points and 342.8 yards per outing (211.8 passing, 131 rushing). However, after giving up a total of just 43 points in the first five games, USC got torched for 28.9 ppg over its final seven contests, yielding 27 points or more four times.
BC ranked just 97th in the nation in total offense 324.9 ypg, and that translated into 25.8 ppg. Sophomore RB Montel Harris was the offensive star, rushing for 1,357 yards (4.8 ypc) and 13 TDs. The Eagles’ defense surrendered just 19.4 ppg and 318.4 ypg.
These teams haven’t met in 21 years, after squaring off in a home-and-home series in 1987 and 1988. USC won both contests (1-1 ATS), including a 34-7 road blowout in 1988 as a 5½-point chalk.
The Trojans are on a handful of spread-covering slides, including 1-6 overall (all as a favorite), 0-4 in December, 1-5 against winning teams and 1-4 after a non-cover. However, they are on ATS rolls of 5-1 as a bowl chalk, 15-5 laying 3½ to 10 points in any game, 24-8 outside the Pac-10 and 13-5 following a SU loss.
The Eagles sport positive ATS streaks of 16-7 as a pup, 4-0 as a bowl ‘dog, 6-1 in non-conference action and 7-3 against winning teams. But Boston College is in the midst of ATS skids of 0-5 in December and 1-5 at neutral sites.
Southern Cal is on “under” tears of 24-11-1 overall, 28-13-1 as a favorite, 6-0 after a SU loss and 4-0 in December, and the under for Boston College is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-0 outside the ACC and 4-1 on neutral fields. However, the total has gone high in USC’s last five bowl games overall and its last four as a postseason chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTHERN CAL
NCAAF News and Notes
Saturday, December 26
Motor City Bowl
Ohio U is one of three bowl teams this season that has never won bowl game; Bobcats are also trying for first 10-win season since 1968. Ohio is 9-2 vs spread in last 11 games- they lost on this field 20-10 three weeks ago to Central Michigan in MAC title game. Ohio is trying to snap 0-8 bowl skid for MAC teams.
Marshall lost three of last four games and fired its coach after 52-21 loss at UTEP in regular season finale; which coaching staff do you think was preparing harder for this game-- the team whose coaches are scrambling to find new jobs, or team with its most wins since 1968? C-USA teams are 15-22 SU in bowls the last 7+ seasons, 1-2 so far this season.
Underdog is 4-2 vs spread in last six Motor City Bowls, with an average total of 62.1 in last seven (game is in a dome, so weather isn't a worry). Ohio U has 36 takeaways this year, most in country; they blocked four punts, scored five TDs on returns. I like Ohio Bobcats to win this one.
Meineke Car Care Bowl
North Carolina will have crowd edge here, with Charlotte only 65 miles from Chapel Hill, but they played in this game LY and are here for third time in last five years-- Pitt players have to more excited to be playing here. Tar Heels have only four senior starters: Pitt has three, just on the offensive line, 11 overall. Butch Davis is 4-1 in bowls (5-0 vs spread); Wannstedt is 0-1, losing 3-0 to Oregon State in Sun Bowl LY.
Pitt lost last two games by total of four points; their three losses in '09 are by total of 11 points; Panthers are 7-2 vs spread as the favorite this year. Favorites are 4-2 vs spread in last six Meineke Bowls. ACC clubs are 10-16 SU in bowl games the last three years. Carolina is 3-1 as a dog this season with a third-year starting QB, but Pitt's senior QB Stull has had a terrific season and should be difference here. I like Pitt in this one.
Emerald Bowl
Boston College had its 8-game bowl winning streak ended by Vanderbilt LY; Eagles won last four bowls when they weren't the favorite. BC was 2-3 on road this year (1-4 vs spread); they have four 2-years starters on OL. BC's last three bowls were decided by total of six points. Eagles are 2-4 vs bowl teams this season. USC is 5-3.
USC covered one of six road games this year; they have nine new starters on defense this year and two new coordinators. Trojans are 6-2 in last 8 bowls, but last seven bowls were all either Rose/Orange bowls, so this is different, playing in a baseball stadium.
Underdogs are 20-5-1 vs spread in ACC teams' last 26 bowls (before the UNC-Pitt game). USC is playing in a non-BCS bowl for first time since 2001; how interested are Trojans going to be in this game? Both teams have a freshman QB; BC's QB is a 25-year old who played in the minor leagues before going to college. If Trojans are into it, they should roll.
Tips and Trends
North Carolina Tarheels vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
North Carolina: North Carolina comes into their bowl game with a record of 8-4 SU and 6-5 ATS for the season. The Tarheels lost their last game of the season to NC State to inevitably play very close to home. North Carolina is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS away from home this season. They are also 3-1 ATS this season as the listed underdog. A big reason for the Tarheels success as an underdog is their defense. North Carolina ranks 6th in the country in total defense, allowing less that 270 total YPG. This Tarheels defense is great against both the pass and the run, ranking in the top 15 in each category. North Carolina has held 8 of their 12 opponents this year to 17 PTS or fewer. This North Carolina offense is starting to see some life, as they are averaging more than 30 PPG over their past 3 games. QB T.J. Yates has thrown more INTs than TDs, and the Tar Heels don't have any skill position players with more than 750 YDS from scrimmage.
North Carolina is 7-1 ATS last 8 games as an underdog.
Over is 7-2 last 9 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - WR Joshua Adams (shoulder) is questionable.
DB Curtis Campbell (wrist) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24
Pittsburgh (-2, O/U 45): Pittsburgh comes into their bowl game stumbling a bit, losing their last 2 games SU. The Panthers finished the regular season at 9-3 SU and 7-4 ATS. Pittsburgh is 3-2 both SU and ATS this year away from home. The Panthers were 6-3 ATS this season as the listed favorite. You have to question the motivation of this Panthers team playing today, as they were one possession away from claiming the Big East Championship and earning a BCS bowl bid. RB Dion Lewis is the reigning Big East Player of the Year. Lewis averaged nearly 140 YPG which ranked him 3rd in the country, along with 17 TDs on the season. Pittsburgh has the 16th best scoring offense in the country, averaging 33 PPG. Prior to their last game against Cincinnati, this Panthers defense had held 7 straight opponents to 22 PTS or fewer. With a win today, Pittsburgh will finish with double digit wins in a season for the first time since 1981.
Pitt is 0-4 ATS last 4 bowl games.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games as a favorite of a field goal or less.
Key Injuries - DB Andrew Taglianetti (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Boston College Eagles vs. Southern Cal Trojans
Boston College: This is the 11th consecutive year that Boston College has gone bowling. Despite a new head coach and a projected last place league finish, BC is bowling yet again. The Eagles finished the season at 8-4 SU and 6-5 ATS. The Eagles were 2-3 SU away from home, including only 1 win ATS on the road. The Eagles were 2-2 ATS as an underdog this season. Boston College has been held under 20 PTS in 4 of their past 5 games. 25 year old freshman QB Dave Shinskie has really struggled this season with his accuracy, ranking last in the ACC in completion percentage. He has also only thrown 1 more TD than INTs on the season. RB Montel Harris carries this Eagles offense, as he has more than 1,350 rushing YDS this season along with 13 TDs. Defensively, the Eagles have held 5 of their previous 6 opponents to 20 PTS or fewer.
Boston College is 4-0 ATS last 4 bowl games as an underdog.
Under is 5-0 last 5 non conference games.
Key Injuries - DE Alex Albright (ankle) is questionable.
RB Rolandan Finch (illness) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 17
USC (-7, O/U 45): How the mighty have fallen! USC will be playing in a bowl outside of the BCS for the first time since 2001. It's also the first time in 7 years that USC isn't at least sharing the Pac-10 Championship. USC has lost 3 of their past 5 games SU, and ended the season at 8-4 SU. The Trojans were dismal ATS this year, going 3-9 for the season. That includes losing 6 of their past 7 games ATS. USC has been favored in every game this season, and are 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 11 PTS or less. Freshman QB Matt Barkley has struggled this season, throwing only 1 more TDs that INTs on the season. Barkley is also averaging less than 175 YPG over his past 5 games. USC has only scored more than 21 PTS once in their past 5 contests. Despite some high profile breakdowns, this USC defense only allowed 20.4 PPG for the entire season. This Trojans defense held 5 opponents to single digit point totals this year.
USC is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
Over is 5-0 last 5 Bowl games.
Key Injuries - S Josh Pinkard (knee) is doubtful.
RB Joe McKnight (suspension) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (Side of the Day)