Browns (1-8) @ Lions (1-8)-- Cleveland star Cribbs got concussion on game's last play Monday, another nail in Mangini's coffin; Quinn was 0-7 on passes of 10+ yards. Browns scored five offensive TDs on 101 drives this year, with 43 3/outs and 25 turnovers. Detroit is no great shakes either; their only win is 19-14 over Redskins (+6) in Week 3- they're 0-1 as a fave. Under is 6-2 in last eight Cleveland games, 3-1 in last four Lion tilts. Browns' passing yardage the last five games: 22-106-81-74-74- they scored six or less points in six of their last eight games. NFC North home favorites are 1-5 vs spread in non-division games; AFC North road dogs are 4-3.
Bills (3-6) @ Jaguars (5-4)-- Buffalo fired Jauron Tuesday, then took half the day replacing him, so they're unplayable this week for sure; Bills allowed 72 points in last two games (six TDs/20 drives) after allowing total of 28 points (two TDs/40 drives) in three games before that. Four of last five Buffalo games stayed under the total; six of last eight Jaguar games went over. Jaguars won three of last four games, but they're 0-3 as favorite this year, winning at home by 20-3-3 points. Buffalo covered three of its four games as a road dog, losing away games by 1-28-24 points. AFC South home favorites are 3-6 vs spread; AFC East dogs are 3-8, 3-4 on road.
Steelers (6-3) @ Chiefs (2-7)-- Kansas City was unimpressive in winning at Oakland Sunday, now they've lost best WR Bowe for four weeks, they had been improving-- only once in last five games (4-1 vs spread) have they lost by more than six points. Chiefs are 0-4 at home (1-2 as home dog) losing by 11-3-6-30 points. Steelers were held without TD last week; they're 2-2 away from home, winning by 8-18 points (1-3 as road fave). Chief coach Haley is son of Dick Haley, who was Steelers' personnel director in their glory years of the 70's. Last three Pittsburgh games stayed under total. AFC North favorites are 6-5, 1-2 on road. AFC West underdogs are 8-9, 4-3 at home.
Colts (9-0) @ Ravens (5-4)-- Undefeated Colts head back to city they bolted in dark of night 25 years ago; five of their nine wins are by four or less points, the last three by 4-3-1 points- they've actually been more impressive on road, winning by 4-21-22-36 points. Baltimore allowed total of 24 points in its last three games (three TDs/32 drives) but their offense was awful Monday- they have two TDs on last 21 drives, and have total of nine first half points in their last four games. Four of last five Raven games stayed under total. AFC South road teams are 8-4 vs spread out of their division. AFC North home teams are 5-5. Indy rushing yardage in last three games: 61-72-91. Not so good.
Falcons (5-4) @ Giants (5-4)-- Two skidding teams collide here; Atlanta is 1-3 in last four games, losing last three road games by 16-8-9 points- they're 1-4 on road with only win 45-10 at Candlestick (1-3 as road dog). Giants lost last four games before the bye, allowing 33.3 ppg (18 TDs on last 48 drives). Last four Falcon games and six of nine Giant games went over total. Giants are 3-4 as a favorite, 1-3 at home. Atlanta ran ball for 161-181-176 yards in last three games, but loss of Turner (ankle) hurts rushing attack. Giants allowed double figure second half points in seven of nine games. NFC South underdogs are 5-9 vs spread, 4-5 on road. NFC East favorites are 10-10, 6-5 at home.
49ers (4-5) @ Packers (5-4)-- Both teams snapped losing skids last week with strong defensive efforts; Niners lost four of last five games; they're 0-5 when they allow more than 16 points, 4-0 when they don't- they are 3-0-1 as a road dog, losing away games by 3-3-4 points. Packers lost two of last three games, but are 3-2 as home favorite, with wins by 6-26-10 points- they held four of last five opponents under 280 total yards. AFC West road underdogs are 8-2 against spread; NFC North home favorites are 1-5. Rodgers has been sacked 16 times in last three games. Green Bay is 5-0 when it allows 17 or less pts, 0-4 if they allow 30+. 49ers average 19.8 ppg on the road.
Seahawks (3-6) @ Vikings (8-1)-- Seattle was outscored 67-13 in second half of last four games; they had 14-0 lead in Arizona last week, couldn't cover as an 8-point dog, much less win- they're 0-4 as road underdog, losing games on foreign soil by 13-17-21-11 points. Vikings are 1-2-1 as a home favorite, with home wins by 3-7-2-17. NFC West dogs are 9-6, 8-2 on road. Favorites from NFC North are 9-3, 6-2 at home. Hasselbeck threw seven INTs in his last two games; he's been sacked 14 times in his last four. Five of eight Viking wins are by 12+ points. Last three Seattle games, five of last seven Minnesota games went over the total.
Redskins (3-6) @ Cowboys (6-3)-- Dallas had four-game win streak snapped by Packers last week; they've allowed nine sacks, had total of just 137 yards on ground last two weeks, so offensive line is struggling. Four of Redskins' last five visits to Dallas were decided by five or less points (dogs 4-1 vs spread); Washington is 5-3 in last eight series games, they lost four of last five games overall, are 2-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 6-5-3-14 points (they are the only team to lose to Lions). NFC East home favorites are 0-4 vs spread in division tilts. Three of four Dallas home games went over total; six of last eight Redskin games stayed under.
Saints (9-0) @ Buccaneers (1-8)-- New Orleans failed to cover last three games since their wild comeback in Miami (won 46-34 after trailing 24-6); Saints are 3-1 as road favorite, winning away games by 26-20-12-5 points. Bucs came off bye playing better, beating Packers, barely losing in Miami- they scored five TDs on last 26 drives, after three TDs on last 56 drives before the bye. Tampa is 3-6 vs spread as a dog in '09, 1-3 at home. Favorites are 4-1-1 vs spread in NFC South games this season. Saints' run defense is struggling, allowing 154.4 yards per game over their last four games, which is why they're struggling to put teams away. Both teams saw four of their last five games go over total.
Cardinals (6-3) @ Rams (1-8)-- St Louis is first team in NFL history to play three consecutive home games against unbeaten teams, now NFC champs come to town, with their QB a St Louis icon. Arizona plays better on road- they're 4-0 on road, winning by 14-24-7-20 points (they were underdog in all four of those games). Redbirds outscored last five foes 69-26 in second half. Rams are trying hard, getting better, but they're talent-shy; only one of their five WRs was on team when season started. Four of Rams' last five games, Arizona's last three games went over total. Underdog is 7-2 vs spread in Cardinals games this season, with Redbirds 2-3 against the spread as a favorite.
Jets (4-5) @ Patriots (6-3)-- Jersey (+3.5) won first meeting 16-9 in Week 2, outscoring Pats 13-0 in second half, holding Brady to 4.9 yards/pass, but now Jets are 1-5 in last six games and allowed 30-24 points in last two games after giving up 17 or less points in five of first seven games. Interesting to see how New England bounces back after losing 35-34 in last minute at Indy last week, especially after head coach's ill-fated gamble helped cause the defeat. Patriots gained 619-414-432-477 yards in last four games; think they'll even score with a mouthy Jet squad that has lost its swagger. Four of last five Jet games went over the total. Underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in AFC East divisional games.
Bengals (7-2) @ Raiders (2-7)-- Huge trap game for Bengals after beating the Steelers last week; only two of Cincinnati's wins are by more than 7 points. Cincy is 0-3 vs spread as favorite this year, 0-1 on road; they're 4-0 on road, but wins are by 7-3-3-6 points. Raiders lost three in row, six of last seven, as average of 8.5 ppg in last eight games (five TDs on 93 drives). Oakland is 4-4 as an underdog this year, 2-2 at home, losing home games by 4-20-38-6 pts. AFC North favorites are 6-5 vs spread, 1-2 on road. AFC West underdogs are 8-9 vs spread, 4-3 at home. Under is 6-2 in Oakland's last eight games, 3-1-1 in last five Bengal contests. Cincy allowed 29 points in last three games.
Chargers (5-4) @ Broncos (6-3)-- Denver lost last three games after 6-0 start; not sure how Orton's ankle is, but it better be healthy, since backup is Simms (was 3-13 for 13 yards, INT at Washington). Broncos won first meeting with Bolts, running kick and punt back for TD in 34-23 win, outscoring Chargers 17-3 in second half (SD also ran kick back for TD in that game). Under is 7-2 in Denver games this season. Home team is 1-6 vs spread in AFC West games this season. San Diego ties for first place with win; they've won four games in row, scoring 28.3 ppg- they're also 3-1 on road, 1-1 as a dog. Red flag for the Broncos is that, in last three games, they allowed 125-173-174 rush yards.
Eagles (5-4) @ Bears (4-5)-- McNabb comes home after passing for 433 yards in loss at San Diego where Philly ran out of time on last drive, but Eagles lost last two games, are 2-2 on road, 0-4 when they score 23 or less points. Bears lost four of last five games; in three night games this season, Cutler threw 11 INTs in 12 quarters. Last three teams Bears beat are Seahawks-Lions-Browns, not exactly great wins. Chicago threw 99 passes, ran ball 113 times in last two games, terrible balance. NFC East favorites are 10-10 vs spread, 5-6 on road. NFC North underdogs are 4-6 vs spread, but 4-0 at home. Seven of nine Philly games went over total.
Monday, November 23
Titans (3-6) @ Texans (5-4)-- Much like McNabb, Vince Young comes home, but he is on roll, leading Titans to three straight wins, scoring 38.3 ppg (nine TDs on last 31 drives with one turnover) after they had no TDs on 22 drives with seven turnovers in Collins' last two starts. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in AFC South games so far this season. Texans had bye last week; they've won three of last four games, are 2-2 at home. Texans (+7) won first meeting 34-31 in Nashville, despite being outrushed 240-63; Schaub was 25-39/357 passing, averaging 9.2 yards/attempt. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Houston games, 2-6 in last eight Titan tilts.