Music City Bowl: Kentucky Wildcats vs. Clemson Tigers
The Kentucky Wildcats and the Clemson Tigers will both be trying to pick up a win when they battle at LP Field in the Music City Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Tigers listed as 6½-point favorites versus the Wildcats, while the game's total is sitting at 53.
Randall Cobb ran for 101 yards and a TD in Kentucky's 30-24 overtime loss to Tennessee in Week 13. Kentucky was listed as a 3-point underdog in that game, while the 54 points made it OVER the posted total of 50.5.
Clemson was defeated 39-34 by Georgia Tech in Week 14 as a pick'em. That game's 73 points sailed OVER the posted total of 57.
C.J. Spiller ran for 233 yards with four touchdowns in that losing effort for the Tigers.
Team records:
Kentucky: 7-5 SU, 6-5 ATS
Clemson: 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS
Kentucky most recently:
When playing in December are 2-2
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the conference are 10-0
Clemson most recently:
When playing in December are 3-6
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing outside the conference are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Kentucky is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Clemson's last 5 games
Clemson is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
KENTUCKY (7 - 5) vs. CLEMSON (8 - 5)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
KENTUCKY vs. CLEMSON
Kentucky is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Clemson is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Clemson's last 5 games
Kentucky vs. Clemson
Kentucky
18-33 ATS off home loss
2-8 ATS after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7
Clemson
11-2 Under in bowl games
22-8 Under off bye week
Kentucky
SEC bowl dogs of a loss are 27-11 ATS… 1-5 In The Stats vs fellow bowlers this season
Clemson
ACC bowlers: off back-to-back losses are 13-3 ATS -but- 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS vs SEC
What Bettors Need To Know: Music City Bowl
By Ted Sevransky
Scouting Clemson
Clemson started out slow, just 2-3 after its first five games. But the Tigers came on strong down the stretch in October and November, reeling off six consecutive victories before losing their final two games, including the ACC Championship against Georgia Tech.
Clemson put up big offensive numbers all year, led by ACC Player of the Year C.J. Spiller, who ranked fourth in the NCAA in all purpose yards and was the only player in college football to score a touchdown in every single game this season.
Dabo Sweeney’s squad hung 34+ in seven of their last eight games, a potent, quick strike offense that put up points in bunches.
Spiller is a tremendous all-purpose weapon, but he’s most assuredly not the only one. Frosh QB Kyle Parker overtook top prospect Willy Korn in fall camp and never looked back, finishing the season with nearly 2400 passing yards and 19 touchdowns. WR Jacoby Ford, like Spiller, is a speedy, big play weapon in the passing game.
The Tigers’ defense let them down in several of their biggest games. Clemson gave up 30+ points and more than 400 yards in both losses to Georgia Tech. The team escaped with an overtime win at Miami, despite allowing 37 points and more than 400 yards.
It was more of the same in their regular season finale loss to South Carolina, snapping a six-game winning streak: 34 points and just shy of 400 total yards allowed. This is not an elite level stop unit.
Scouting Kentucky
Like Clemson, Kentucky started slow, losing its first three SEC games. Kentucky also finished strong, reeling off a 5-2 mark in its final seven games, with one of those losses coming in overtime against Tennessee.
Kentucky’s stats weren’t particularly impressive. The Wildcats ranked 10th in SEC in both total offense and total defense.
But head coach Rich Brooks has never been about compiling stats – he’s about winning games, often with inferior talent. And they’ve been good underdogs all season long, with outright upset wins at Auburn (+13.5) and at Georgia (+10), as well as a two-point loss at South Carolina (+9) and an overtime affair against Tennessee (+3).
Four different quarterbacks took snaps for offensive coordinator Joker Phillips diverse attack this year. The original starter, Mike Hartline, got hurt midseason, opening the door for frosh Morgan Newton, who played well down the stretch. Randall Cobb quarterbacked in the Wildcat formation, while getting snaps at running back and wide receiver as well. Leading rusher Derrick Locke is a dangerous kick returner as well.
Kentucky’s defense has a handful of future NFL stars with cornerback Trevard Lindley, linebacker Micah Johnson along with defensive lineman Jeremy Jarmon and Corey Peters leading the way.
At times this year, the Wildcats struggled against the run, suffering an ugly home loss to Mississippi State when star back Anthony Dixon rolled up 252 rushing yards against them. And their pass defense really struggled down the stretch – their last two games were their worst two games of the year in terms of yards per pass attempt allowed.
Recent Bowl History
Clemson was favored in each of its last three bowl games but ended up losing each game outright. Last year, Nebraska notched the upset over the Tigers in the Gator Bowl. The Tigers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 bowl appearances, a consistent underachiever.
Kentucky has won all three bowl games they’ve been to under Rich Brooks, as an underdog each time. Last year, the Wildcats pulled the 25-19 upset over East Carolina as 3-point dogs.
The Music City Bowl has been a house of horrors for the favorite. Over the last decade only one favorite has cashed in 10 tries in Nashville. Eight of the last 10 underdogs have won this game in outright fashion, including a pair of big dogs of more than a touchdown.
Injury concerns
Kentucky’s top defensive player for much of the year was LB Sam Maxwell. Maxwell won’t play here after shoulder surgery. But the Wildcats are expected to have QB Mike Hartline back on the field after he missed the final seven games of the regular season with a knee injury.
Clemson enters bowl season without any significant recent injuries or suspensions.
Very special teams
Both of these teams have tremendous return games. The team that gets a big play or two from its special teams will likely to turn that into a pointspread victory.
Clemson’s, C.J. Spiller ranks fourth in the country in kickoff returns, averaging 34 yards an attempt. He ran back four kickoffs for touchdowns this year alone, while adding a punt return touchdown as well. Teammate Jacoby Ford also has a punt return TD this year.
For Kentucky, Derrick Locke ranks eighth in the country, averaging just shy of 30 yards per return. Locke has a 100-yard kick return touchdown this season. His teammate, Randall Cobb, isn’t far behind, although Cobb doesn’t have enough attempts to qualify for the kick return rankings, but he did rank 15th in the country in punt returns, including a 73-yarder for a touchdown.
Line moves
Clemson opened as a 7.5-point favorite, but the line has dropped down to -7 with news that Hartline was going to play for Kentucky. The total has been bet down slightly from an opener of 53 to a current number of 51.5, although several ‘leading indicator’ books are back up to 52, telling us that this total is probably back on the way up.
Music City Bowl Preview
By Brian Edwards
During the first three years of Rich Brooks’ tenure at Kentucky, the Wildcats limped to an abysmal 9-25 record. Going into the 2006 campaign, this space had Brooks listed toward the top of the list of hot-seat coaches.
Well, we never hesitate to admit when we’re wrong. And we couldn’t have possibly been more wrong about Brooks at UK. He has made football relevant in Lexington. He has made Kentucky a respectable program in an SEC division that features powerhouses like Florida, Tennessee and Georgia.
Most telling, Brooks has Kentucky (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) going bowling for a fourth straight season. Not only that, but the Wildcats are seeking a fourth straight win in the postseason.
The first came against Clemson in the 2006 Music City Bowl when UK captured a 28-20 win as a 10 ½-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a monster plus-400 return (risk $100 to win $400). At that time, UK had not won a bowl game in 22 years.
Since then, Kentucky has beaten FSU 35-28 at the 20007 Music City Bowl and knocked off East Carolina 25-19 in last year’s Liberty Bowl. Now the ‘Cats will come full circle by returning to Nashville once again for the Music City Bowl to face Clemson -- again.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern at LP Field with ESPN providing television coverage.
Clemson (8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS) limps into Music City off of back-to-back losses. First, the Tigers took woodshed treatment at South Carolina, as the Gamecocks stroked the Tigers 34-17 as three-point home underdogs. Next, Dabo Swinney’s team went to its first ACC Championship Game, only to drop a 39-34 decision to Ga. Tech as a one-point underdog.
Clemson senior running back C.J. Spiller ran for 233 yards and four touchdowns on 20 carries, but it wasn’t enough for the Tigers, who gave up a 15-yard TD run to Jonathan Dwyer with just 1:20 left in the fourth quarter. QB Kyle Parker threw for just 91 yards and was intercepted twice without throwing a TD pass.
Spiller carried his team all year, rushing for 1,145 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 5.7 yards per carry. The Lake City, FL., product also had 33 receptions for 445 yards and four TDs. Spiller is also a monster threat on special teams, so much so that many schools elect to simply kick it out of bounds.
Can you blame them? Spiller owns the NCAA record with seven kick returns for touchdowns.
Although Parker didn’t play well in the ACC title game, he had a solid season nonetheless. The sophomore, who also plays baseball for the Tigers, threw for 2,385 yards with a 19/12 touchdown-interception ratio.
Jacoby Ford is Parker’s favorite target, hauling in 53 receptions for 735 yards and five touchdowns. Michael Palmer emerged as the No. 2 WR, bringing down 41 catches for 468 yards and four TDs.
Like Spiller has done it all for Clemson, sophomore Randall Cobb has been Kentucky’s dynamic playmaker. Cobb is UK’s second-leading rusher and leading receiver. He has 37 receptions for 427 yards and four TD grabs, in addition to 84 rushes for 537 yards and 10 TDs. Cobb averages 6.4 YPC and also has a punt return for a TD.
UK’s ground attack is led by junior Derrick Locke, who has 844 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Locke is averaging 4.7 YPC.
Junior QB Mike Hartline was the starter before injuries caused him to miss late October and most of November. Hartline, who has a 6/7 TD-INT ratio and 802 passing yards, is healthy again and expected to start. Freshman Morgan Newton (5/3 TD-INT) has also seen a bunch of playing time but is now banged up. Cobb lines up at QB often as well, but mostly in Wildcat type formations.
UK went 3-3 ATS in six underdog spots, winning outright twice (at Auburn and at Georgia). Clemson own a 4-2 spread record in six games as a single-digit favorite.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
These schools also met in the 1993 Peach Bowl in Atlanta. Clemson captured a 14-13 win, but UK took the cash as a 2 ½-point underdog.
When former Clemson head coach Tommy Bowden signed Willy Korn as his prize recruit of the 2007 class, it was considered a huge find. Most recruitniks had Korn as the nation’s premier dual/threat athlete. However, things have not worked out for Korn at Clemson. The third-year sophomore played sparingly this season, completing 12-of-17 passes for 90 yards and one touchdown. Korn has decided to transfer but will continue practicing with the team and be available vs. Kentucky. He’ll graduate at Clemson in May of 2010 and then transfer to a school where he’ll have two years of eligibility remaining.
Brooks tweeted on Christmas Day that UK’s players were attending Friday’s Chargers-Titans game.
Cobb has been responsible for 24 touchdowns in just two short years at UK, but he wasn’t able to play in the bowl game last year against ECU due to a knee injury. "And I can't wait to play this time," Cobb told CatsPause.com. "I'm pretty excited to say the least."
If you missed it last week, Florida will be without WR/return man Brandon James in the Sugar Bowl. James was injured against Alabama and had season-ending foot surgery. The senior goes down as the best return man in UF history, shredding the record books for both punt and kick-return yardage. Look for the Gators to use Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey on returns against Cincinnati.
vegasinsider.com
Kentucky (7-5, 6-6 ATS) vs. Clemson (8-5 SU and ATS)
For the second time in four years, Kentucky and Clemson will face off at LP Field in Nashville in an ACC-SEC postseason matchup.
The Wildcats, who finished tied for fourth in the SEC’s East Division, won five of seven (4-3 ATS) down the stretch to qualify for this bowl but lost a hard-fought 30-27 overtime game to Tennessee in the finale, falling short as a three-point home ‘dog. Despite the 30 points allowed to Tennessee, Kentucky’s defense stepped up in the final seven weeks, limiting the opposition to 14 points or less four times.
The Tigers won the ACC’s Atlantic Division but came up short in the conference title game, losing 39-34 to Georgia Tech as a one-point underdog. Clemson rattled off six straight wins (5-1 ATS), scoring 34 points or more in each victory, before dropping their regular-season finale at South Carolina (34-17 as a three-point road favorite) and losing the ACC title game to Georgia Tech. The Tigers, who failed to cover in their last three games, scored 21 points or less in three of their final four defeats.
In the 2006 Music City Bowl, Kentucky scored a 28-20 victory over Clemson as an 11½-point underdog. Going back to 1985, the Wildcats are 2-1 SU (3-0 ATS) against the Tigers.
Kentucky ran its bowl winning streak to three with a 25-19 upset of East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl in January, getting the outright win as a three-point underdog. The four-straight bowl appearances are a record for the Wildcats, who hadn’t won a postseason game since 1984 when they upset Clemson in 2006.
The Tigers have lost three straight bowl games, including last year’s 26-21 setback to Nebraska in the Gator Bowl as a 2½-point favorite. Clemson’s last postseason victory was the 2005 Champ Sports Bowl, a 19-10 triumph over Colorado.
The Wildcats have struggled against the run this season, allowing 183.1 yards per game to rank 100th out of 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams, and they’ll have their hands full trying to stop all-purpose back C.J. Spiller, who ranked fourth nationally in all-purpose yards with 194 per game and finished with a school-record 20 touchdowns. Spiller was Clemson’s first ACC Player of the Year since 1987 and he finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting.
Kentucky comes into this game on ATS runs of 3-0-1 on neutral fields, 9-2-1 in non-conference games and 4-1 against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, Clemson is on ATS slides of 1-6 against SEC teams, 0-5 in December games, 0-5 in neutral-site contests, 3-9 in non-conference games and 4-12 when coming off a non-cover.
The Wildcats are riding “over” streaks of 4-1 as an underdog, 16-5 against teams with winning records and 4-1 on natural grass. The Tigers have topped the total in five straight overall and four straight as a favorite, but Clemson is also on “under” stretches of 5-0 in bowl games, 7-3 against the SEC, 4-1 after a straight-up loss and 7-3 after a non-cover. Finally, then these two met in the 2006 Music City Bowl, the “under” rolled in with a 10-point cushion.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
Music City Bowl - Kentucky vs. Clemson
By Marc Lawrence
When Kentucky takes on Clemson in the Music City Bowl they will do so knowing that SEC bowl dogs of a loss are 27-11 ATS. In addition, Wildcats' head coach Rich Brooks is 20-9 ATS as a dog off loss vs. an opponent of loss. The dog in Brooks' bowl games is 5-1 ATS. Clemson goes bowling for the 2nd time under Dabo Swinney (he took over the program midway through the season last year) sporting a 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS mark as a favorite in games against the SEC. Last year Kentucky upended East Carolina, 25-19, as three-point dogs in the Liberty Bowl while Clemson was upset, 26-21, as 1.5-point favorites against Nebraska in the Gator Bowl. The key question in this contest is how the Tigers respond after failing in the ACC championship game. Will they be flat, or will they be angry? Stay tuned.
Kentucky: SEC bowl dogs of a loss are 27-11 ATS… Brooks: 20-9 ATS dog off loss vs opp of loss (6-1 ATS w/rest) – and – dog in bowl games is 5-1 ATS
Clemson: 0-7 ATS w/rest vs. SEC opponents… 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS L7 favorites vs. SEC opponents… ACC bowlers: off back-to-back losses are 13-3 ATS -but- 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS vs. SEC
Bowl Notes: Kentucky QB Mike Hartline expected back for this game... SEC bowl dogs off a loss of 15 or less points are 20-5 ATS… Brooks is 2-0 SU bowler with Wildcats – both wins SU as dog.