What Bettors Need to Know: Thursday's NCAAF Action
By Ben Burns
Kansas State Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks (+2.5, 50.5)
The skinny
Kansas State (4-1, 1-1) has a chance to save face after getting embarrassed at home by Nebraska last week on Thursday night football. The Cornhuskers exposed a very suspect Wildcat rush defense and stymied what had been a successful Kansas State ground game, led by running back Daniel Thomas.
The Wildcats are ranked 116th in the nation in run defense, after surrendering 451 yards rushing in a 48-13 loss to the Huskers.
The Jayhawks (2-3, 0-1) also got blasted the last time they stepped on the field. Baylor blew out Kansas 55-7 in coach Turner Gill’s Big 12 debut back on Oct. 2. So Gill had a few more days to see if he can fix a host of problems for the Jayhawks, who rank 11th or 12th in the Big 12 in eight major statistical categories.
Kansas opened the season with a 6-3 loss to North Dakota State of the FCS.
The line
Kansas State opened as a 3.5-point favorite. The line was bet down to -3 almost instantly and was down to -2.5 at most outlets as of Wednesday afternoon.
The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last six meeting between the Jayhawks and Wildcats. The favorite has covered the spread in seven of the last 10.
Kansas State covered as 2.5-point home underdogs in a 17-10 win over the Jayhawks last season.
The total
The opening 50.5 total had not budged as of Wednesday.
The Jayhawks are scoring 19.2 and allowing 26.6 points per game. The Wildcats are scoring 27.20 and allowing 25.4 points per game.
Weather is not expected to be a factor.
Injuries
Kansas State will be without leading receiver Brodrick Smith (leg).
Kansas will be without starting offensive lineman Trevor Marrongelli (knee surgery). Starting senior safety Phillip Strozier is listed as doubtful.
South Florida Bulls at West Virginia Mountaineers (-10, 43)
The skinny
West Virginia heads into Big East play at 4-1, with its only loss coming at No. 9 LSU. The Mountaineers are seventh in total defense and have been especially stingy against the run, allowing just 86.8 yards on the ground. The offense, led by the explosive Noel Devine and improving quarterback Gino Smith, has been extremely balanced.
West Virginia is coming off its best performance of the season in a 49-10 rout of UNLV.
In contrast, South Florida (3-2, 0-1) is coming off its worst performance in an ugly 13-9 home loss to Syracuse. Sophomore quarterback B.J. Daniels has struggled in the passing game. He’s thrown four touchdowns with seven interceptions.
South Florida’s wins have come against Stony Brook, Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic.
The line
West Virginia opened as an 11.5-point favorite. The line was down to -10.5 at most outlets as of Wednesday.
The Bulls have covered the spread in only six of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record.
South Florida has upset West Virginia in three of their last four meetings, including a 30-19 home win last season.
The total
The total opened up at 43 and remained there as of Wednesday afternoon.
A 50 percent chance of rain is in the forecast with temperatures expected to be in the low 50s.
West Virginia is scoring 29.8 and allowing 13.60 points per game. South Florida is scoring 27.4 and allowing 16 points per game.
As the total suggests, this has historically been a low-scoring Big East matchup. The five games between the teams have averaged just 37 points.
Injuries
West Virginia’s starting cornerback Brandon Hogan (bicep) is questionable.
South Florida has five starters listed on its injury report. Defensive back Mistral Raymond and wide receiver Sterling Griffin are probable. Offensive lineman Jamar Bass, wide receiver A.J. Love and defensive back Jerrell Young are questionable.
Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Christian Alexander
So. Florida Bulls (3-2, 0-1 Big East) at #25 West Virg. Mountaineers (4-1, 0-0 Big East)
For all the success that West Virginia has had recently, they sure have struggled against the South Florida Bulls. In fact, heading into Thursday night’s showdown in Morgantown, the 25th-ranked Mountaineers will be trying to stop a skid that has seen them lose three of the past four to the Bulls.
That said, the West Virginia faithful can take solace in the fact that their program will enter this game – their first Big East tilt of the year – full of confidence. That’s because the last time out (Oct. 9) the Mountaineers pasted UNLV 49-10. The 49 points and the margin of victory were both records for a West Virginia team coached by Bill Stewart and the highest point total in three years for the program.
Yes, it’s safe to say that Stewart and WVU offensive coordinator Jeff Mullen have things clicking right now. Much of the credit for that has to go to the balance of Mullen’s attack. Of the Mountaineers 2,086 yards so far this year, 55% have come through the air and 45% on the ground. Not only is that pretty balanced, it’s much different than many experts expected from West Virginia in 2010.
The difference maker for WVU has clearly been QB Geno Smith, who has quietly been one of the Big East's best signal callers, ranking second in the league with 1,139 yards and 12 touchdowns. Combine that with the production that everyone expected from the Mountaineers’ main weapon – speedy RB Noel Devine – and you can see why WVU is a major headache to game-plan against.
Coming off a home loss to Syracuse in which they could only muster nine points, I think it is safe to say that USF coach Skip Holtz is not feeling the same confidence as West Virginia. It’s a particularly painful loss for the first-year coach considering his predecessor had beaten the Orange the previous five years in a row.
To put it simply, South Florida QB B.J. Daniels has little help and certainly can’t do it alone. The Bulls have few deep threats to pass to and Daniels is clearly their best rusher, although Holtz does his best to get RB Moise Plancher involved.
Another ominous note is that South Florida allowed Syracuse to dent them for 178 rushing yards and it’s safe to say the Orange don’t have anyone nearly as talented as Devine. Add in dangerous WR’s such as Jock Sanders and Bradley Starks and Holtz will need a tremendous game plan to keep Stewart’s bunch contained – especially at home.
That home crowd will likely be calling for revenge considering the 30-19 loss to the Bulls in 2009 as well as L’s in 2006 and 2007 when the Mountaineers were ranked in the Top 10.
For the season, West Virginia has been a moneymaker with a 3-1 ATS record while South Florida has been a loser with a 1-3 record against the number.
Kansas State Wildcats (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) at Kansas Jayhawks (2-3, 0-1 Big 12)
Reviewing tape of the recent Kansas State loss to Nebraska must have been extra fun for first-year Kansas coach Turner Gill.
Not only did Gill watch his alma-mater absolutely crush the Wildcats, but he saw them do it in a way that was very familiar to him. Gill, along with other Huskers legends such as Tommie Frazier and Eric Crouch, is one of the great running QBs in Nebraska’s history. Watching film of current Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez rush for four touchdowns in a 48-13 rout must have brought back fond memories for Gill…as well as given him some ideas of how the Wildcats could be exploited this Thursday night in Lawrence, KS.
Then again, while Kansas State coach Bill Snyder isn’t a Baylor grad, he also probably enjoyed film review leading up to this game as he watched the Bears destroy the Jayhawks on Oct. 2 to the tune of 55-7. Needless to say, both coaches probably see some opportunities heading into this one.
Of course, only one team will leave the field Thursday night with their season back on track. At 2-3, there is no question the home team needs this game much more than the visitors from Manhattan as that 7-1 Big 12 record and Orange Bowl Kansas team from 2007 seems like a distant memory.
In his first season in charge of the Jayhawks, Gill certainly has yet to mold his team into the offensive juggernaut he presided over as a player at Nebraska. Kansas is going through some growing pains as QB Jordan Webb and RB James Sims – both freshmen – learn on the job. Webb has shown some promise when given the time and has a trio of capable targets in D.J. Beshears, Daymond Patterson and Johnathan Wilson. However, time is the key, and mostly Gill has seen his offensive line get manhandled up front, leaving his young QB running for his life.
That lack of muscle in the trenches also extends to the defensive side of the ball for Kansas. Gill’s defense gave up 678 yards against Baylor, the most allowed by the Jayhawks since 1988.
That’s an ominous sign heading into this game against a Kansas State team that will try to be physical with Kansas and run it behind RB Daniel Thomas. The converted quarterback, who has been the heart and soul of the Kansas State offense, ranks seventh in the nation with 138.2 rushing yards per game.
It’s no secret the Jayhawks will load up to stop Thomas and force the Wildcats passing game to beat them. It’s certainly the smart play considering K State ranks 107th in passing offense with a 156.4-yard average, last in the Big 12. Unless starting QB Carson Coffman can show some life in the first half this Thursday, expect Snyder to give backups Collin Klein and Sammuel Lamur a look as he did in the Nebraska game.
Kansas vs. Kansas State notes:
# Kansas has won three of the last four matchups against Kansas State but lost to the Wildcats 17-10 in 2009.
# Kansas has won three straight at home against Kansas State.
# Kansas has lost eight straight Big 12 games dating back to a 41-36 win against Iowa State Oct. 10, 2009.
# Kansas has not won or lost consecutive games this season (lost last game at Baylor).
# Kansas leads the all-time series against Kansas State 65-37-5.
# This game will mark the 100th consecutive meeting between Kansas and Kansas State. That ranks as the fourth-longest uninterrupted series in the nation behind Kansas-Nebraska (104), Minnesota-Wisconsin (103) and Clemson-South Carolina (101).
# Kansas is 11-8 over the past 20 seasons in the weeks following a bye. Of the post-bye games, four were against Kansas State with the Jayhawks going 3-1 in those contests.
# Both teams are 2-2 against the spread this season.
Tips and Trends
Kansas St. Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks
WILDCATS: (-3, O/U 50.5) Kansas St. was undefeated until they met up with Nebraska. One blowout loss later, and one can only imagine the fragile mentality of this team. Coach Snyder has plenty of experience, so one would imagine his team will respond strongly to their blowout loss. Playing a state rival is never easy, but the Wildcats are far more disciplined and consistent to overlook this matchup. Kansas St. is 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS overall this year. This Wildcats team will have to be disciplined tonight, as they are playing their first true road game of the season. The Wildcats are 2-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. RB Daniel Thomas is the star of this team, as he's one of the elite runners in all of college. Thomas has rushed for nearly 700 YDS this season, including 6 TD's. Thomas should have far more running lanes against Kansas compared to what he faced against Nebraska. Prior to allowing Nebraska to score 48 PTS, the Wildcats hadn't allowed an opponent to score more than 24 PTS. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss. Kansas St. is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games. The Wildcats are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
Wildcats are 2-7 ATS last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Over is 19-7 last 26 games following a SU loss.
Key Injuries - WR Brodrick Smith (leg) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
JAYHAWKS: Kansas is coming off one of their worst performances of the season, a 7-55 SU demoralizing loss to Baylor. The Jayhawks might be one of the most inconsistent teams in the country, as one game they look like world beaters and the next game they look like one of the worst teams in the nation. Kansas is 2-3 both SU and ATS this season. The Jayhawks have won 2 of their 3 home games this season SU, with their lone loss coming against FCS competition. Kansas has revenge on their minds, as they lost 10-17 SU last year to the Wildcats. Kansas has only scored 20 PTS or more twice this season, and are only averaging 19.2 PPG overall this year. Freshman RB James Sims has been a solid surprise this year, as he's rushed for a teak high 329 YDS this year, including 3 TD's. Defensively, Kansas is allowing 26.2 PPG this season. The Jayhawks have had extra time to prepare for this game tonight, as they last played on October 2nd. The Jayhawks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Kansas is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. The Jayhawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 conference games. Kansas is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
Jayhawks are 8-3 ATS last 11 games following a bye week.
Over is 5-0 last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - TE A.J. Steward (shoulder) is probable.
Projected Score: 21
South Florida Bulls at West Virginia Mountaineers
BULLS: South Florida might have 3 wins this season, but one could argue that none of them came against top 100 teams. Coach Holtz is seeing how difficult it can be to coach at a BCS school. USF has a ton of pride though, and they will get on track sooner rather than later. South Florida is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS overall this season. The Bulls are looking to bounce back from their conference opener home loss to Syracuse, where they only scored 9 PTS. This Bulls offense has been troublesome, as they have been very 1 dimensional. This team has absolutely no passing game, so everything they do comes via the ground. South Florida averages 176.2 rushing YPG this season, 43rd in the nation. RB Moise Plancher is the team leader in rushing, with 289 YDS and 4 TD's this year. QB B.J. Daniels has struggled this year, throwing for only 684 YDS with 4 TD's and 7 INT's. Besides giving up 38 PTS to Florida, no other team has scored more than 14 PTS against South Florida. Overall, this Bulls defense is only allowing 16 PPG, 19th best in the country. The Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog greater than 10 points. The Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games. South Florida is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Bulls are 6-15 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Key Injuries - WR Sterling Griffin (ankle) is probable.
Projected Score: 13
MOUNTAINEERS: (-10.5, O/U 43) West Virginia is back in the national rankings at #25 in the nation. The Mountaineers are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS overall this season. West Virginia enters tonight's contest with revenge on their minds, as they've lost 4 of the past 5 games played against South Florida. Clearly USF is in the heads of the Mountaineers, so it will be interesting to see how they respond to the challenge at hand tonight. The Mountaineers are throwing the ball more than ever this year, behind stud QB Geno Smith. Smith is 2nd in the Big East passer rating, thanks to 1,139 passing YDS and 12 TD's this year. Smith directs an offense that is averaging 29.8 PPG this season. West Virginia has a stifling defense this year, especially against the run. The Mountaineers are only allowing 13.6 PPG this season, 7th best in the nation. Of the 3 home gamest this year, nobody has stayed within 14 PTS of the Mountaineers. The Mountaineers are 5-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. West Virginia is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. The Mountaineers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite more than 10 points.
Mountaineers are 3-13 ATS last 16 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Over is 7-2 last 9 Thursday games.
Key Injuries - DB Brandon Hogan (bicep) is probable.
Projected Score: 31 (SIDE of the Day)
Thursday's Analysis
Kansas won three of last four games vs Kansas State, winning last three played here by 52-21/39-20/31-28 scores; favorite is 10-3 vs spread in series. Jayhawks scored 16 or less points in last nine series losses, 30+ in last four series wins. Both teams got pounded in last game, K-State by Nebraska last Thursday, Kansas by Baylor 12 days ago. KU is 1-4 as a home dog since 2006. First true road game for Wildcat squad thats 2-9 as road favorite since 2004. Three of four Kansas games went over total.
Underdog covered last four South Florida-West Virginia games, as USF won three of last four, despite being the dog in all four games. Bulls split last two visits here. USF lost 13-9 at home to Syracuse last week, a bad loss; they've allowed total of only 28 points in last three games. WVa is 10-14 as home favorite since 2006 (2-0 this year). USF is 8-5 as road dog since 2005, but lost 38-14 at Florida in only road game this season.