Cincinnati Bearcats vs. South Florida Bulls
The Cincinnati Bearcats and the South Florida Bulls will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at Raymond James Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Bearcats listed as 3-point favorites versus the Bulls, while the game's total is sitting at 48½.
Jacob Ramsey ran for 103 yards and three touchdowns in Cincinnati's pass-oriented offense for a 37-13 victory over Miami-Ohio in Week 5.
The Bearcats failed to cover the large 29.5-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the day's posted total of 59.5.
B.J. Daniels hit Carlton Mitchell on scoring passes of 33 and 85 yards, Jason Pierre-Paul returned an interception 18 yards for another score, and South Florida remained unbeaten, 34-20, over Syracuse in Week 5.
The Bulls won as 7.5-point favorites, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 47.5.
Current streak:
Cincinnati has won 5 straight games.
South Florida has won 5 straight games.
Team records:
Cincinnati: 5-0 SU, 2-2 ATS
South Florida: 5-0 SU, 2-1 ATS
Cincinnati most recently:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on grass are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 8-2
South Florida most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing South Florida
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing South Florida
South Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
South Florida is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Florida's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
South Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Next up:
Cincinnati home to Louisville, Saturday, October 24
South Florida at Pittsburgh, Saturday, October 24
Cincinnati at South Florida
By Christian Alexander
ESPN is looking real smart right about now with its Thursday night matchup pitting two of the remaining nine undefeated teams in the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision. Not many folks would have picked South Florida and Cincinnati to be unscathed at this point in the season but it sure sets up an intriguing matchup in what should be a raucous Raymond James Stadium.
One might have envisioned Cincinnati being perfect through five games, although remember they were a five point dog to Rutgers to start the year, but nobody could have predicted this start for the South Florida Bulls. That’s especially true considering they lost one of their best players when QB Matt Grothe suffered a torn ACL in his left knee in the Bulls' 59-0 blowout victory against Charleston Southern, ending his incredible USF career.
Coach Jim Leavitt plugged in redshirt freshman QB B.J. Daniels under center and the Bulls haven’t missed a beat on offense as the team is third in the league in total offense averaging 413.6 yards a game and are second in rushing (190.8). Individually, Daniels ranks eighth in the conference in rushing (58 ypg) and is seventh in passing (120 ypg), completing 57.1 percent of his attempts. Grothe who?
Daniels favorite target so far has been WR Carlton Mitchell, who leads the team with 21 catches for 377 yards and three touchdowns. Daniels, who hauled in an 85-yard touchdown reception in the win last weekend over Syracuse, is close to setting the USF record for receiving yards in just his junior year.
The one red flag for Leavitt’s crew on offense is the kicking game which has stumbled since the Bulls lost their starter, Maikon Bonani, to injury. Since that point Leavitt has tried a couple options and neither has been consistent. So far the kicking game hasn’t cost the Bulls but if this matchup comes down to a fourth quarter kick it could become a major issue.
On defense, the Bulls should look very familiar to the Bearcats, and not just because they play them every year. That’s because USF defensive coordinator Joe Tresey spent the past two seasons in that same role under head coach Brian Kelly at Cincinnati. Kelly fired Tresey following last season's Big East championship and Orange Bowl appearance saying he wanted to take the defense in a “different direction”.
As the saying goes, one man’s trash is another’s treasure and you can be sure that Leavitt is plenty happy with what Tresey is doing with the Bulls on defense thus far in 2009. South Florida currently ranks fifth in scoring defense, allowing less than 10 points per game and are holding opponents to a league-low 263 yards per game in total defense. USF has allowed opponents only four touchdowns in 13 trips inside their 20-yard line, making them No. 1 in red-zone defense.
The motor behind the USF defense is DE George Selvie who is constantly double and triple teamed to keep him from taking over games. That attention has kept his individual stats down but has allowed the Bulls defense to flourish.
Another key defender for South Florida this Thursday will be FS Nate Allen who is coming off a game against Syracuse in which he had two interceptions. Allen will try to slow down a Cincy passing game that is throwing for a Big East-high 298.4 yards a game. It would be very helpful if Selvie and crew can get some pressure on Cincy QB Tony Pike but he Bearcats have only given up three sacks in five games.
Pike will no doubt look early and often to WR Mardy Gilyard who has 38 receptions for 517 yards and seven touchdowns in just five games. The senior receiver is also a special teams terror, averaging 21.7 yards on kick returns.
Working a spread offense mainly out of the shotgun, Pike usually takes to the air but the Bearcats can run the ball with RB Jacob Ramsey, who torched Miami (Ohio)'s for 103 yards and three touchdowns. Behind Pike and company Cincinnati ranks fourth nationally in scoring offense.
On defense, new Cincinnati coordinator Bob Diaco has the Bearcats running a 3-4 scheme and LB J.K. Schaffer has become a key contributor in just his sophomore season.
Cincy leads the all-time series 4-2 but the Bulls are 2-1 at home against the Bearcats. That said, the last time Cincy travelled to Tampa (2007), the Bearcats managed to pull out a victory, 38-33. Cincinnati also won last year's meeting, 24-10, at Nippert Stadium.
VegasInsider.com
Game of the day: Cincinnati at South Florida
By Matt Fargo
Line movement
The line movement has been heavy, as Cincinnati opened as a slight underdog but it has been bet in the other direction as South Florida is now getting a field goal in some places.
The total has moved up slightly as is the case with most Thursday night games. It likely has not peaked yet but that could all depend on the weather.
Injuries
The big injury to speak of is that South Florida will be without quarterback Matt Grothe. This will be the third game that B.J. Daniels has started in his place.
Weather
There will be a chance of a thunderstorm with a high in the low 80’s.
Inside info
South Florida defensive coordinator Joe Tresey had the same role at Cincinnati the past two seasons but was fired after last year, despite his team having the 31st ranked overall defense and 25th ranked scoring defense. His defense was a big part of Cincinnati's last two wins against South Florida.
The big reason he was let go was that Bearcats head coach Brian Kelly caught wind that Tresey was interviewing at Miami. Tresey then decided to take the position with the Bulls in what can be largely considered a payback situation.
There has been no public ill will between Kelly and Tresey but the latter knows there might be an edge.
“The nice thing is I am familiar with personnel. I am familiar with some of the things they do, there's no question,” said Tresey.
Senior revenge
This is actually a huge revenge game for South Florida. Cincinnati has won the last three meetings and no team has ever beaten the Bulls four years in a row. That means the seniors want no part of another loss to the Bearcats.
“It is kind of personal,” defensive end George Selvie said. “I know we've beaten Cincinnati, but I've never had a chance to actually beat Cincinnati myself. This is my senior year, and I want to go out with a win. It's a real big game for me, and I want to win this one.”
Revenge is always easier said than done but when triple revenge comes into play, it tends to rally the troops even more.
Big East big bust?
The winner of this game will join West Virginia and Pittsburgh as the remaining undefeated teams in Big East action. Most importantly, the winner will remain as the only undefeated team overall and will be the only likely team that will have a chance at the BCS Championship.
Even if South Florida or Cincinnati does in fact run the table and finish undefeated, it is not likely to get a shot in the championship game simply because the conference is considered too weak. People tend to forget that West Virginia was a win away from playing in the BCS Championship just two years ago.
According to Jeff Sagarin, who provides power rankings to many different media outlets, the Big East Conference is actually the fourth ranked conference in the country, ranking ahead of the Big 12 and Big Ten. That certainly doesn’t seem like much of a bust.
Strength against strength
Cincinnati enters with the fourth-ranked scoring offense in the nation, averaging 42.0 ppg while South Florida features the fifth ranked scoring defense, allowing just 9.4 ppg. The Bearcats are also sixth in passing offense while the Bulls are ninth in passing defense.
Turnovers could play a very big role in this game as we will have two teams who are very advantageous with taking care of the ball.
Cincinnati is third in the country in turnover margin at +1.6 per game while South Florida is eighth at +1.4 per game. The weather could have something to do with the results of this angle on Thursday, so that is something that should be looked at.
Bottom line
Cincinnati has the edge when each of these teams play against the better teams. It is 15-6-1 ATS in its last 22 games against a team with a winning record, while the Bulls are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a winning record.
However, the Bulls are 8-3 ATS at home against Big East foes over the last three years.
The rushing results from both teams could call for a low scoring game as Cincinnati is 12-3 to the ‘Under’ in its last 15 games after outrushing its last opponent by 125 or more yards while South Florida is 17-3 to the ‘Under’ in its last 20 games against teams that are allowing 120 ypg on the ground.
The Bearcats have covered five straight meetings in the series.
PAIR-FIVES
By SportsPic
Cincinnati Bearcats aim for a fourth straight win over South Florida Bulls in a matchup of undefeated Big East teams at Raymond James Stadium Thursday night. Bearcats (5-0, 3-2 ATS) lead by QB Tony Pike (1,493 yds, 13 TDs) putting up 42.0 points per game so far this campaign while holding the opposition to 13.8 PPG face a stiff test against South Florida. The Bulls (5-0, 3-1 ATS) behind a well balanced offense (222.8 PY, 190.8 RY) have been been a force of their own notching 37.0 PPG with a 5th ranked scoring defense doing a number on the opposition allowing a measly 9.4 PPG. USF 16-4 (11-5 ATS) in their own back-yard, freshman QB B.J. Daniels (602 PY 6 TD, 261 RY 3 TD's) with deep-threat WR Carlton Mitchell at his disposal are definitely a threat capable of taming the Cats. Spread-wise Cats have not performed well as road favorites going 7-15-1 against-the-oddsmaker while USF has Bullied it's way to the cash window in 7-of-8 as underdogs.
NCAAF Preview
Underdog covered last four Cincinnati-South Florida games, as Bearcats won last three games SU, the last two when USF was ranked. Daniels is making first home start for 5-0 Bulls, who are 7-5 as home favorite since 2006- they're ust 7-27 on 3rd down in Daniels' two starts, but defense has 11 takeaways (+6) in those two wins. 5-0 Cincinnati has road wins at Rutgers (47-15), Oregon State (28-18), Miami OH (37-13); they're +8 in turnovers this year, and 6-2-1 in last nine games as a road underdog.
Tips and Trends
Cincinnati at South Florida
Cincinnati (-3, O/U 49.5): The Bearcats have the quarterback edge in this battle of 5-0 Big East Conference teams. Senior Tony Pike is a pro prospect. He’s thrown for 1,493 yards and 13 touchdowns this season, while completing 67 percent of his passes. He’s thrown a touchdown pass in 15 straight starts. The Bearcats are averaging 43.2 points per game, third-best in the country. The Bearcats ranked 31st in defense last year under defensive coordinator Joe Tresey, who was fired following the season by Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly. Tresey is now the defensive coordinator for South Florida. The Bearcats rate 37th in total defense, allowing an average of 316 yards per game. Cincinnati defeated South Florida, 24-10, last Oct. 30 as slight underdogs. Pike hit on 20 of 28 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns in the victory. The Bears have covered the past five times they’ve met South Florida.
Cincinnati is 7-15-1 ATS as a road favorite.
The Under is 13-3-1 in Cincinnati’s last 17 October games.
Key Injuries - Defensive end Curtis Young (knee) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 26
South Florida: New defensive coordinator Joe Tresey has continued South Florida’s strong defensive tradition. The Bulls are fifth in scoring defense giving up 9.4 points per game and 10th in yards allowed yielding 263 per game. They also have forced 16 turnovers. South Florida didn’t give up a passing touchdown until surrendering two in their fifth game, a 34-20 victory against Syracuse. This will be redshirt freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels’ third start since replacing injured senior Matt Grothe, perhaps the best quarterback in the Big East last year. Daniels has thrown for 423 yards and run for another 158 yards in leading the Bulls to victories against Florida State and Syracuse. The Bulls have failed to cover nine of the last 12 times they’ve faced a team with a winning record. However, they are 5-0 against the spread the past five times they’ve been an underdog.
The Under has cashed 7 of the last eight times the Bulls have been an underdog.
South Florida has covered 6 of its last seven games.
Key Injuries - Quarterback Matt Grothe (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 23 (UNDER - Total of the Day)