Quack Attack
By SportsPic
Oregon took second spot in the initial BCS Standings of the 2010 campaign released Sunday (Sooners #1) however Ducks rated #1 in all the polls, including the AP Top 25 which is not used in the BCS calculations. Ducks and their point-a-minute offense get to prove themselves Thursday when they play host to UCLA in front of the nation.
Ducks leading the nation in scoring (54.3 PPG) on a whopping 570.3 total yards/game most of it on the ground (321.2) along with it's formidable defense holding opponents to just 16.3 PPG on 338.5 total yards will try to avoid being bounced from the top as were Alabama and Ohio State the past two weeks.
Ducks scoring no fewer than 42 points in any contest behind QB Darron Thomas (1213 PY, 14 TD) and his favorite receiver Jeff Maehl (423 yds, 5 TD) and explosive tailback LaMichael James (868 RY, 9TD) will be tough to topple.
A lot of lumber (-20.5) but must keep in mind Ducks are ridding a 15-1 streak at home (11-5 ATS) and have a 5-1 ATS run going at home laying 20 or more points. Bruins on the other hand have a 8-13 skid going vs the conference and enter 1-4 against-the-number following a bye.
Games to Watch - Week 8
By Judd Hall
It looks like nobody wants to be at the top of the college football rankings after the Buckeyes fell flat in Madison against the Badgers. Will that No. 1 ranking be poison to the teams both afforded that spot this week? We’ll look at both of them as some of our better games to watch in Week 8.
UCLA at Oregon
Skinny
UCLA is used to facing No. 1 teams in Pac-10 play, but it's normally the cross-town Trojans in that role. Oregon finds itself as the No. 1 team both the AP and USA Today Polls for the first time in school history. And they did it on a week when they didn't play a game. Don't kid yourself into thinking they backed themselves into the role as the Ducks have a stellar offensive attack. Oregon is scoring 54.3 points per game right now. They're doing that in large part to LaMichael James anchoring the Ducks' running game with a nation's best 169.6 yards per game on the ground this season. Darron Thomas has handled the QB duties just fine as he's helped the Quack Attack gain 567.0 YPG on offense to lead the NCAA. The Bruins were braced for the worst this year when Rick Neuheisel told fans that this was going to be a bad campaign. Yet you have to believe they're doing alright at 3-3. UCLA is doing its damage this year with a running game that has found itself, ranking 13th offensively with 223.0 YPG on the ground. Now can they pull off that kind of number on Oregon, who is giving up 126.5 rushing YPG.
Gambling Notes
The early numbers have the Ducks as 21.5-point home favorites, which shouldn't surprise many considering they've been 36-point faves during the season. Yet the Bruins have gone 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in the last three head-to-head battles. If we're looking at playing on Thursdays, then Oregon would be a fade as they failed to cover last year against the Beavers as a 10-point home favorite. Before bettors jump on the Bruins to cover the big spread, remember that they are 0-4 SU and just 1-3 ATS in games as road pups against Pac-10 foes after back-to-back ATS losses.
vegasInsider.com
UCLA at Oregon: What Bettors Need to Know
By Ben Burns
Oregon puts its new No. 1 ranking on the line Thursday against UCLA in a place it rarely loses – Autzen Stadium.
The Ducks (6-0, 3-0) have won 10 straight in Eugene and seven of nine overall against the Bruins (3-3, 1-2 Pac-10), who arrive with a major injury concern with their starting quarterback.
It seemed doubtful Bruin sophomore Kevin Prince (knee) would be able to play on Wednesday, meaning sophomore Richard Brehaut would make his second career start in one of the toughest environments in college football. In his only other start, Brehaut completed 12 of 23 passes for 128 yards in the Bruins’ 42-28 win over Washington State on Oct. 2
Oregon saw its starting quarterback Darron Thomas leave in its last game against Washington State with a shoulder injury. But Thomas reportedly showed no signs of the shoulder giving him problems at practice this week and is expected to start.
Unlike the Bruins, the Ducks do have a seasoned backup in senior Nate Costa. He played well after taking over for Thomas against Washington State, completing 13 of 15 passes for 151 yards and a touchdown.
Also unlike the Bruins, Oregon’s quarterback will be surrounded by a bevy of offensive weapons, most notably running back LaMichael James. The Ducks lead the nation in total offense and are third in rushing offense, with James averaging 167 yards per game. UCLA’s rush defense is ranked 92nd in the nation and is surrendering an average of 182 yards on the ground.
Clearly, Oregon is the much more explosive of the two teams; hence, the 24.5 point spread.
UCLA has shown the ability to raise its game to a high level, though. The Bruins convincing win at Texas is proof. But the Bruins also are inconsistent, as their 35-7 loss at Cal two weeks ago proves.
Both teams are coming off a bye. Oregon is at USC next week.
THE LINE
The line has seen a lot of movement since it opened at Oregon -21.5 on Sunday.
Early money dropped the number to -20.5, but the Prince injury situation appears to have made the Ducks a more popular bet. The Ducks were laying as much as 24.5 as of Wednesday.
The Bruins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or greater and are 23-10 ATS after a straight-up loss.
The Ducks are 20-8 in their last 28 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or greater.
THE TOTAL
The total opened at 60.5 and was up to 61.5 at most outlets on Wednesday.
A 60 percent chance of rain is forecast for Thursday night in Eugene.
Oregon is averaging 54.33 points per game and allowing 16.33 points per game. UCLA is averaging 22.67 points per game and allowing 25.67.
The Ducks beat the Bruins 24-10 last season in Los Angeles. In their last four meetings, the teams have combined to score an average of 38.75 points.
The under is 7-1 in Bruins last eight games following a bye week. The under is 21-5-1 in UCLA’s last 27 conference games.
The over is 8-1 Oregon’s last nine conference games.
INJURY REPORT
Neither team is healthy.
Three starters from the Oregon defense—corner Anthony Gildon, end Terrell Turner and Zac Clark--are listed as doubtful. Running back and kick returner Kenjon Barner, who was carted off the field during the Oct. 9 Washington State game, isn’t expected to play either.
UCLA is waiting news of a reported second MRI on Prince’s knee. Chances seem to diminishing that Prince will be able to play. Chris Foster of The Los Angeles Times tweeted Wednesday that “if the decision is put into the hands of the UCLA medical staff, [Prince] will not play.”
The Bruins also suspended top return man Josh Smith and tight end Morrell Presley for violating team rules.
BATTLE IN THE TRENCHES
UCLA has recorded 18 sacks this season, second most behind Oregon in the Pac-10. But Oregon, with its quick-hitting offensive scheme, has allowed only two sacks all season.
Tale of the Tape: Oregon-UCLA Statistical Breakdown
By Ashton Grewal
We really love these stand-only weekday football games. But one game-day preview isn’t enough to satisfy our thirst for knowledge leading up to kickoff.
Here’s our breakdown of Oregon-UCLA on both sides of the ball:
OFFENSE
Oregon’s offense is the class of college football. The Ducks lead the country in yards per game (567), points per game (54.3) and are sixth in yards per play (7.1).
Chip Kelly’s crew hasn’t played a schedule like Alabama’s but it still put up 52 points against Stanford and 48 at Tennessee.
The Bruins’ attacking unit just doesn’t possess the same type of firepower. They punt 1.6 times for every offensive score (compared to Oregon’s 0.6) and they convert just 33 percent of their third downs.
UCLA relies too heavily on its ground game, and averages less than 100 yards through the air on game days. Only Georgia Tech and Army gain fewer passing yards than the Bruins.
Edge: Oregon
DEFENSE
This is an area the Ducks have shown some vulnerability. Remember how easily Stanford scored on Oregon in the first half of their showdown a few weeks back? Coach Kelly elected to try an onside kick in the second quarter rather than send his defense out against Andrew Luck again.
Oregon is allowing 483.7 yards over its last three games. That’s a big chunk of change. Astute bettors know the Ducks’ opponents get more possessions and often have to throw at a higher rate because of Oregon’s quick-strike offense.
Well, Boise State’s offense is pretty good too. And the BSU defense doesn’t get gashed like this Pac-10 team.
Still, you can’t discount the ability to create turnovers. Oregon leads the nation in defensive take-aways at 3.4 and that number swells to 4.0 at home.
UCLA’s stopper unit is average in just about every statistical category. The Bruins held the Long Horns to just 349 yards in that Week 4 shocker but they let Washington State rack up almost 400 yards the very next week.
As unremarkable as Oregon’s defense is, it’s hard not to give the Ducks the edge here too. The Bruins allow an average of 4.5 yards per carry, a number that’s sure to grow after facing LaMichael James.
Edge: Oregon
SPECIAL TEAMS
We really didn’t want to go with a clean sweep but it’s hard not too when you look at the numbers. Oregon doesn’t punt or kick field goals often. Phil Knight’s green guys prefer to punch it in for six.
But Oregon averages 20.3 yards per punt return, which is double UCLA’s average.
And the Bruins’ return game won’t have its top playmaker suited up for Thursday’s game. Wide receiver/returner Josh Smith is suspended for a violation of team rules.
Edge: Ducks
From the files of the beat reporters:
"We hear all the excuses about everyone being inexperienced, or the offense did that and the defense did this. Forget all that. We play one good series, then two bad ones. That's the reason we're not winning."
UCLA free safety Rahim Moore venting his frustrations about the Bruins’ up-and-down season to the Los Angeles Times.
"They are 100-percent sold on running that offense. So, you're going to see a lot more tight ends, a lot more motions, a lot more blocking the back side edge."
Oregon coach Chip Kelly explaining to Oregon Live about UCLA's commitment to the pistol offense.
Final score prediction: Oregon 48, UCLA 17
Thursday NCAAF Preview
Oregon is 7-2 in last nine games vs UCLA, with underdogs 6-2 vs spread in last eight; Bruins lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 7-10-19 points. 6-0 Ducks allowed 85 points in last three games, so they're trying to outscore you- Oregon is 2-0 as home favorite this year, winning home games 72-0/52-31- they outscored Stanford 28-0 in second half of their last home game. UCLA is 3-3, with losses by 9-35-28 points; they are 2-3 as underdog, 1-2 on road. Pac-10 home faves are 3-7 vs spread so far this young conference season.
Tips and Trends
UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks
BRUINS: UCLA has been either really good or really bad, with little in between. The Bruins are coming off arguably their worst game of the season, a 7-35 loss to California. The Bruins are coming off a much needed bye week, so one can expect to see a far better performance from them tonight in front of a national audience. Tonight's game against Oregon will be the 4th time the Bruins have faced a ranked team. Thus far, UCLA is 2-1 SU and ATS against those ranked schools, with both of their SU wins coming as the listed underdog. The Bruins have struggled with the Ducks of late, losing 7 of the past 9 meetings SU. With injury concerns at several positions, including QB, UCLA is likely to lean on RB Johnathan Franklin tonight. Franklin is 2nd in the Pac-10 with 113 rushing YPG this season. The Bruins have given up more than 30 PTS in 2 of their 3 road games this season, and now they are facing the best offense in all of college football. The Bruins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of more than 10 points. UCLA is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The Bruins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. UCLA is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played in October. The Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.
Bruins are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 7-1 in Bruins last 8 games following a bye week.
Key Injuries - QB Kevin Prince (knee) is probable.
Projected Score: 17
DUCKS: (-24, O/U 61.5) It's a historic day for Oregon, as they will play their first game since being named the #1 team in the polls. The Ducks have been dominant all year long, thanks to the most prolific offense in the nation. Oregon is averaging 54.3 PPG and 567 YPG this season, both ranked #1 in the country. RB LaMichael James is becoming quite the Heisman Trophy candidate, as he leads the nation with nearly 170 rushing YPG and 9 TD's this season. QB Darron Thomas has been tremendous in leading an offense that has scored at least 40 PTS in every game this season. Thomas has combined for nearly 1,500 total through the air and on the ground in 5 games this season, including 16 TD's. Defensively, Oregon has struggled a bit of late, yet are only allowing 16.3 PPG for the season. The Ducks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Oregon is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games overall. The Ducks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. The Ducks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of more than 10 points. Oregon is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games overall. The Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Ducks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
Over is 8-1 in Ducks last 9 conference games.
Key Injuries - DB Kenjon Barner (concussion) is questionable.
Projected Score: 38 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
UCLA at Oregon Preview
By Christian Alexander
You have to hand it to the schedule makers at ESPN, they certainly know how to pick the Thursday night matchups.
Landing Oregon on a Thursday night during the week when the program was voted number one in the nation for the first time in school history is programming genius…combined with a little luck. After all, you would have to go back to Oct. 14, 1990 to find the last time when a team (Virginia) was voted No. 1 in the AP Poll for the first time ever in school history.
Of course, being the nation's No. 1 team hasn’t been such a good thing these past couple of weeks as Alabama fell to South Carolina two weeks ago and then Ohio State lost at Wisconsin last week.
UCLA will be trying to make No. 1 unlucky for the third week in a row but history is not on their side. In fact, you would have to turn the calendar all the way back to November of 1960 to find the last time an AP No. 1 has lost in three straight weeks.
You can be sure that coach Chip Kelly has been constantly reminding his team of what has happened to No. 1 teams lately. Combine that with the fact that Oregon doesn’t yet sit atop the all important BCS standings – that position belongs to Oklahoma – and you would think the Ducks have plenty of motivation for this game.
One thing is for sure, the Bruins will need a great effort to slow down the juggernaut that is the Oregon offense. The stats really tell the whole story: Oregon leads the nation with 54 points and 567 yards per game. The main catalyst for the offense is sophomore running back LaMichael James who has almost single handedly propelled the Ducks to the nation's third-ranked rushing offense, averaging 322 yards a game. James leads the nation with 170 rushing yards per game.
However, while everyone thought James would be a one man show after the suspension and transfer of QB Jeremiah Masoli, QB Darron Thomas has proved to be quite a capable replacement and the sophomore has already tossed 14 touchdowns. Thomas was banged up a little the last time out (Oct. 9) against Washington State when he fell on his throwing shoulder. The bye came at a perfect time though and all signs point to the QB being 100% this Thursday night.
Coach Rick Neuheisel and his Bruins are also coming off a bye and also dealing with a QB who is a little banged up. Unfortunately, the news for Neuheisel is not as promising as starting quarterback Kevin Prince is still dealing with an ailing right knee which he originally injured against Texas on Sept. 25. Prince, who has started five of the Bruins' six games, missed practice on both Monday and Tuesday of this week making it increasingly likely that sophomore Richard Brehaut will make his second college start at Oregon.
That news is probably not as bad as it would be for most teams. The fact is, while Prince has a good deal of experience as a starting QB, his performance this season has left something to be desired.
Part of that lack of production can certainly be blamed on the UCLA coaching staff who installed the Pistol offense during the offseason. Needless to say, Prince has yet to run the offense as effectively as QB Colin Kaepernick at Nevada – probably the best Pistol offense in college football. In five games using the new scheme, Prince has thrown for 384 yards, three touchdowns, and five interceptions.
Overall, the UCLA offense is last in the Pac-10 with 95.5 passing yards and 318.5 total yards of offense per game and so keeping pace with the Ducks this Thursday will be a tall challenge.
Last year, Oregon travelled to Los Angeles for a 24-10 victory in which James rushed for 152 yards. While the Bruins lead the all-time series 39-24, the victory was Oregon's seventh in the last nine meetings against UCLA. UCLA is 4-10 all-time against top-ranked teams and have knocked one off since the 1976 Rose Bowl against Ohio State.
Oregon is 3-2 against the spread while UCLA is just 2-4 ATS.
Oregon favored by 24 over UCLA
By: Brian Graham
UCLA BRUINS (3-3) at OREGON DUCKS (6-0)
Kickoff: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Oregon -24, Total: 61.5
Oregon will play its first-ever game as the top-ranked team in the polls when it hosts UCLA on Thursday night. The Ducks lead the nation with 54.3 PPG and have won five of their games by 20-plus points. The bye week was key for QB Darron Thomas (shoulder) to heal, but RB Kenjon Barner (concussion) is not expected to play on Thursday. UCLA is also coming off a bye after a 26-carry, 26-yard rushing performance in a 35-7 loss at Cal.
UCLA QB Kevin Prince is banged up with a knee injury, and his status is uncertain for Thursday. He was dreadful against Cal, completing just 42 percent of his passes (13-for-31) for 99 yards. His backup is Richard Brehaut who has zero touchdowns, two interceptions and 10 sacks in his two-year career (55 pass attempts). The quarterback at UCLA is not vital to the Bruins success since they run the ball so effectively. Johnathan Franklin is averaging 113 rushing YPG in leading UCLA to the 13th-best rushing attack in the nation (223 rush YPG), which includes the woeful output against Cal.
Oregon leads the country in total offense, averaging 567 yards per game. RB LaMichael James tops the nation with 170 rushing YPG, and he ran for 152 yards in a 24-10 win at UCLA last year. Thomas has had a great sophomore season, throwing at least two TD in his first five games before getting hurt in game number six against Washington State. Thomas is also second on the team in rushing, including a 117-yard performance against Stanford two games ago. If Thomas does have problems with his shoulder, backup QB Nate Costa is certainly capable of filling in. Costa threw just two incomplete passes against WSU, totaling 151 passing yards and 84 rushing yards. Barner is not only James’ backup, averaging 6.5 YPC, but he also returns kicks and is a quality receiver out of the backfield.
Favorites of 20-plus points ona six-game in-season win streak are 33-15 ATS (69%) since 2005. Oregon knows how to win big considering it is 7-2 ATS as a favorite of 20-plus points since 2007. The Bruins are 2-11 SU (5-8 ATS) in their past 13 road games in Pac-10 play. These FoxSheets trends give three more reasons to like Oregon Thursday night:
Play On - Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OREGON) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. (40-14 over the last 10 seasons.) (74.1%, +24.6 units. Rating = 3*).
Play On - Any team (OREGON) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game. (32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*).
OREGON is 26-7 ATS (+18.3 Units) in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. The average score was OREGON 38.2, OPPONENT 20.5 - (Rating = 3*).
The FoxSheets also show this four-star trend in favor of the Under:
Play Under - Any team against the total (UCLA) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. (29-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating = 4*).