FSU at North Carolina
By Christian Alexander
Last week I started my writeup of the Thursday night game by commenting how smart ESPN executives were to have picked Cincinnati’s trip to Tampa to play South Florida as a Thursday night game. After all, both teams were undefeated and ranked in the Top 25, something that hardly could have been expected before the season started.
Unfortunately, just a week later those same executives look pretty foolish as this Thursday we have a pair of teams who have so far combined to go 0-5 in ACC play. And last time I checked, the ACC wasn’t exactly the SEC so if you can’t get a win or two in this conference, something must be wrong.
And indeed something is wrong at both North Carolina and Florida State. Let’s start with the obvious one in Tallahassee.
There is a large group of fans who feel that after everything coach Bobby Bowden has done for Florida State University, he should be able to retire from coaching whenever he sees fit. I happen to agree with that thought process – in theory. The theory being that if and when coach Bowden got to the point where the program wasn’t heading in a positive direction, he would be honest enough with himself to recognize it and retire.
Of course, had that been the case Bowden might have retired from FSU a few years back. Now? Now it’s just getting ugly and embarrassingly obvious that a change needs to be made. The once proud Seminoles are 2-4 on the season and a program that was once synonymous with Top 10 rankings, National Championship hunts and a shut down defense is ranked 107th in the nation in total defense and has to scramble to win games at home against Jacksonville State.
If that isn’t a sign the program is headed in the wrong direction, I’m not sure what is.
I suppose there are some positives with the Seminoles this season, mainly on offense.
When this offense has clicked, it has really clicked. Against Miami, Brigham Young and Georgia Tech, three pretty solid programs, the Seminoles averaged 44 points and 485 yards of total offense. However, that high level of performance hasn’t always been there as against Jacksonville State, Boston College, and South Florida that same unit averaged just 15 points and 367 yards total offense.
Whatever the reason for the discrepancy, don’t look at QB Christian Ponder. Were the playmakers around him more consistent and his defense – especially his defense (more on that in a bit) – better this team would not only have several more wins but Ponder would be discussed as one of the best signal callers in college football. His numbers are certainly right there as he is completing nearly 68% of his passes for 1,781 yards (10th in the nation) and a sparkling nine touchdowns to just one interception ratio. Ponder is throwing for just under 297 yards a game, best in the ACC.
The FSU QB has a number of talented receivers including Bert Reed, Richard Goodman and Taiwan Easterling, who missed the entire spring after rupturing his Achilles tendon in offseason conditioning but is now back to 100%.
As mentioned however, there are issues with Florida State and most of them can be found on the defensive side of the ball where the Seminoles rank an extremely uncharacteristic 107th in the nation in total defense. One of the biggest problems has been a lack of pass rush, something the Noles have been known for over the years. Making matters worse for this Thursday night is that CB Patrick Robinson (ankle), probably the Seminoles' best cover corner, is questionable to play. If Robinson can’t go then Bowden will likely have to press CB Xavier Rhodes, a freshman, into service.
Whether the potential loss of Robinson actually hurts the Seminoles is based on the assumption that North Carolina can actually exploit a weakness on a defense and trust me, that is far from certain.
There is one thing you notice almost immediately when sizing up these two teams. On paper they are basically opposites of each other. FSU has a pretty good offense (27th in the nation) and a horrible defense (107th) while North Carolina has an abysmal offense (117th nationally) and a rock solid defense (3rd in the nation). If nothing else, it will certainly be interesting to see which team can take advantage of the other’s weakness.
There obviously isn’t much to talk about on the offensive side of the ball but coach Butch David would certainly point to RB Ryan Houston (seven rushing touchdowns), RB Shaun Draughn (leads team in rush with 355 yards) and leading receiver Greg Little (27 receptions) as bright spots.
QB T.J. Yates is not one of those bright spots as the junior is only throwing for about 161 yards a game and has six touchdowns against seven interceptions thus far in 2009, stats that look even worse in comparison to FSU’s Ponder.
Thankfully for North Carolina, their defense is showing up in just about every game and carrying the load for the team. The Tar Heels have held four of the six opponents to under 100 yards rushing. DE Robert Quinn has been the star of the unit thus far with seven sacks and three forced fumbles. Quinn is joined by DE Robert Quinn by a pair of talented defenders in the secondary in CB Charles Brown and FS Deunta Williams who both have two interceptions on the season.
Game Notes:
This will be the first Thursday night home game for North Carolina in school history. The Tar Heels did play a Thursday game against Bowling Green on Thanksgiving morning back in 1982, but it wasn't televised.
Florida State has owned this series with a 14-1-1 all-time record. The two teams haven't met since the ACC went to divisional play in 2005.
In 2004, #9 Florida State beat up the Tar Heels 38-16 at home behind QB Wyatt Sexton’s three touchdown passes and RB Leon Washington’s 153 yards rushing.
FSU is 1-4 against the spread, with four of the five games going “over” the posted total. North Carolina is equally as bad against the number as the Tar Heels are 1-3 ATS with three of their four lined games having gone “under” the posted total.
VegasInsider.com
Florida State Seminoles vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
The Florida State Seminoles and the North Carolina Tar Heels will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at Kenan Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Tar Heels listed as 2½-point favorites versus the Seminoles, while the game's total is sitting at 48½.
After a lightning delay, FSU fell 49-44 to Georgia Tech at Doak Campbell Stadium in Week 6.
Georgia Tech covered as a 3-point road underdog while the final score played over the 57-point total.
Current streak:
Florida State has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Florida State: 2-4 SU, 1-4 ATS
North Carolina: 4-2 SU, 1-3 ATS
Florida State most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 5-5
North Carolina most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the conference are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Florida State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing North Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Florida State's last 11 games on the road
Florida State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Florida State is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
North Carolina is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home
North Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
North Carolina is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Florida State
Next up:
Florida State home to North Carolina State, Saturday, October 31
North Carolina at Virginia Tech, Thursday, October 29
What bettors need to know: FSU at North Carolina
By Matt Fargo
Line movement
The Tar Heels opened as one to 2-point favorites and the line has risen slightly to -2.5 with a -3 out there as well. This is a surprising line move as most money has come in on Florida State, yet the line is going the opposite way.
The total opened at 48 and has remained steady.
Injuries
For Florida State, defensive tackle Budd Thacker will not be available after being diagnosed with a Grade 3 sprained MCL. Also, senior linebacker Dekoda Watson may not play due to a groin injury. Those are two significant injuries on an already struggling defense.
The Tar Heels have a sizable number of questionable players on the injury list but none are to any significant players.
Weather
It should be a great night in Chapel Hill with mostly cloudy skies and a low of 64 degrees with little to no wind.
Bye Bye Bowden?
What happened to Florida State? The Seminoles have lost three straight games and are sitting at 2-4, their worst start since Bobby Bowden took over the program in 1976. The Seminoles have hit hard times in recent years but nothing like this and the top program in Florida a few years back is lucky to be the fourth best right now.
The big story two weeks ago was that the boosters immediately wanted Bowden out and it was almost as though that story took precedence over the actual game. It looks as though headlines got in the way as Florida State dropped its game against Georgia Tech.
We may have seen the end of the legendary coach as he simply is not getting the players he once did and what he does get, he is having trouble coaching. Add to that, the other Florida schools have coaches that players can relate to and that makes a big difference in the recruiting wars.
A report surfaced late Monday night that said offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher’s contract was “done.” About that, Fisher said the report was wrong.
“There's never been a contract presented to me,” Fisher said. “I've never spoken to them about it.”
Something’s gotta give
Strength against strength. Power against Power. This will be a great matchup of the Florida State offense against the North Carolina defense.
The Seminoles are 27th in the nation and first in the ACC in total offense with 426 ypg. They are also second in the conference in passing offense and that goes right into the teeth of the Tar Heels defense. They Heels are third in the country in total defense, first in the ACC, but they are also third in passing efficiency defense and that is huge against the Seminoles.
The Tar Heels are not only first in the ACC in total defense, but also first in scoring defense and second in rushing defense which is probably very surprising to the average fan. However, North Carolina brought back nine starters from an above average unit last season so this jump is not overly surprising at all.
In the spotlight
North Carolina basketball has been the center of attention for years so appearing on National Television is just something we are accustomed to. How about the football team though? This is actually the first ever Thursday home game for North Carolina and while it says something about the past, it also says something about where head coach Butch Davis has taken this program.
“You get basically a four-hour infomercial that you get a chance to talk about Chapel Hill, talk about the University of North Carolina,” Davis said. “It was an unbelievable cooperation by a lot of people to help make this happen, and we're very grateful they allowed us to do it.”
The Tar Heels have played in the spotlight before, just not at home. Last season they went to Rutgers and put the hammer down on the Scarlett Knights 44-12. Excluding a 28-0 loss at Virginia in 2006, which led to then-coach John Bunting’s resignation, North Carolina has won four of its other five Thursday night contests.
Florida State owns a commanding 14-1-1 advantage over North Carolina, but these teams have not played each other in five years.
Offense feeling blue
While the North Carolina defense has been at the top of its game, the offense has been the exact opposite. The Tar Heels knew coming into the season that the offensive line was going to have some struggles but they never would have predicted this.
The Tar Heels are 117th in the nation in total offense, averaging a mere 282.2 ypg and their 22.5 ppg scoring average is good for only 95th. The issues are twofold as they can’t run the ball or pass the ball as they are 102nd and 103rd respectively in those categories.
This inept offense leaves the Tar Heels in too many third and long situations and that has led to them converting only 30 percent on third down which is 112th in the land. Surprisingly, North Carolina is 11th in fourth down conversions as it has made it in five of seven attempts.
So what is a good remedy for this? Facing the Seminoles defense that can’t stop anything, for starters. The Florida State defense has made teams look great. Miami is averaging 390 ypg but had 476 against the Seminoles. Boston College is averaging 301 ypg but had 399 against Florida St. Georgia Tech is averaging 427 ypg but had 532 in the last game. Didn’t Florida St. used to possess the most feared defenses in college football?
Bottom line
Based on the line, the Seminoles have the historical edge as they are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog while North Carolina is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games as a home favorite.
In all of his years at Florida State, Bowden has rarely been involved is high scoring games such as the last one against the Yellow Jackets. He is 6-0 ATS after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points showing just how rare it really is.
As for the total, the ‘Over’ is 11-3 in the Seminoles last 14 road games against a team with a winning home record while the ‘Over’ is 6-2 in the Tar Heels last eight games against a team with a losing record.
Florida State (2-4, 1-4 ATS) at North Carolina (4-2, 1-3 ATS)
The Seminoles try to snap a rare three-game losing skid and get their first ACC victory of the season when they travel to Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill for a nationally televised clash with North Carolina.
Florida is coming off a 49-44 home loss to Georgia Tech as a three-point favorite back on Oct. 10, and that came on the heels of upset losses to Boston College (28-21 on the road) and South Florida (17-7 at home). The three-game slide is the first for the Seminoles since November 2005, and they’ve given up 31.3 points and 433 yards per game (247.3 rushing ypg) during the slump. Against the Yellow Jackets two Saturdays ago, Florida State rolled up 539 yards, but allowed 532, including a whopping 401 rushing yards (7 yards per carry).
Including a season-opening 38-34 home loss to Miami as a six-point favorite, Florida State is 0-3 SU and ATS in ACC action.
North Carolina started ACC play with two blowout losses to Georgia Tech (24-7 as a three-point road underdog) and Virginia (16-3 as a 12-point home chalk). However, the Tar Heels got healthy against Division I-AA Georgia Southern on Oct. 10, rolling 42-12 in a non-lined home game. Against its four Division I-A foes, UNC has scored a total of just 53 points (13.3 ppg).
Florida State is 14-1-1 SU all-time against North Carolina, winning the last three in a row by scores of 40-14, 37-0 and 38-16, the latter being the most recent battle back in 2004. Despite the Seminoles’ on-field dominance of this rivalry, the Heels are 3-1 ATS in the last four, all as an underdog. However, the visitor has cashed in seven of the last nine battles.
Florida State rates a big edge on offense, putting up 29.8 points and 425.5 yards per contest, compared with 22.5 points and 282 total yards per game for the Tar Heels. However, North Carolina’s stop unit has been much stronger, yielding 14.2 points and 237.7 yards per outing (112.5 rushing ypg, 2.9 yards per carry), while the Seminoles are getting torched for 28.2 points and 428.2 ypg (172.7 rushing ypg, 4.6 ypc).
Christian Ponder has had a solid junior season under center for Florida State, completing 67.7 percent of his passes for 296.7 yards per game with nine TDs and just one INT. Meanwhile, UNC quarterback T.J. Yates is connecting at a 60.8 percent rate but for just 160.7 passing ypg with six TDs offset by seven INTs.
The Seminoles are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 after a non-cover. Otherwise, though, Bobby Bowden’s crew is in ATS declines of 1-4 in ACC play, 3-8 in October and 0-4-1 on Thursday. North Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at home and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven after a bye, but the Heels are also in pointspread ruts of 6-13 as a favorite, 3-7 when laying three points or less, 6-19 as a home chalk and 1-4 in ACC action.
Florida State is on a bevy of “over” streaks, including 6-1 overall, 8-3 on the road, 12-3 in October, 5-0 as an underdog and 5-1 against winning teams. The Tar Heels have topped the total in three of four at home and four of six as a home favorite, but the under is 4-1 in UNC’s last five after a bye and 3-1-1 in the last five in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
MUST-WIN!
By SportsPic
The Tar Heels (4-2, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 42-12 victory over Georgia Southern a game that saw LB's Quan Sturdivant, Bruce Carter score defensive touchdowns and RB Ryan Houston go to the house three times as Heels scored all 42 points in the first half. Back into ACC action and still aiming for it's first conference win the Tar Heels limited to just 10 points in two games against ACC opponents need to get the offense going to turn the season around and get back into the ACC race. Meanwhile, FSU was last seen getting nipped 49-44 by Yellow Jackets despite QB Christian Ponder's 359 yards, 5 touchdowns. The loss marked a third straight overall and third in the ACC for Noles giving the squad a 2-4 record on the season with a cash draining 1-5 mark at the betting window. FSU's offense hasn't been the problem (29.9 PPG) but it's defense is arguable one of the worst allowing 28.2 PPG on 428.2 total yards. Thursday's contest is the first meeting since 2004 between Heels and Noles but it is well to note FSU has a commanding 8-1 (4-5 ATS) lead in series play dating back to the '96 campaign. Could be a DOG-GONE-GOOD night for Nole backers, FSU is 8-4-1 ATS last thirteen as underdogs while Tar Heels come in 6-13 ATS as favorites, 3-6 ATS laying 3 or less points.
ACC Encounter for Bettors Only
By Doug Upstone
The two biggest disappoints in the ACC this season have been Florida State (2-4, 1-5 ATS) and North Carolina (4-2, 2-3 ATS). Both team were improved last season with many positive signs and were expected to compete for the right to play in ACC championship game in 2009. Instead, ESPN has one of its worst dud games on a Thursday night it has had in years. Each of the Atlantic Coast Conference teams currently resides in the basement of their respective teams, talk about a need for flex scheduling!
Florida State's bizarre season continues to become stranger as it goes along. The season started with the cloud over coach Bobby Bowden, being stripped of wins in his pursuit of Joe Paterno as the winningest coach in D-1 or FBS history. The exciting 38-34 loss to Miami in the opener was harbinger of defensive issues not wholly recognizable at the time.
A fourth quarter come from behind 19-9 win against FCS Jacksonville State was masked with impressive 54-28 win over then previously unbeaten BYU. That is where the rubber met the road. The Seminoles have not won since, losing three times and the defense has been scorched for 30.5 points per game in their four trips to the gridiron.
Several people are calling for Bobby Bowden to step down while others are saying leave him alone and let him decide when the time is right. What is another peculiar aspect in Florida State's season are Bowden's comments leading up this contest.
"I'm disappointed with the losses and yet we've done some good things. We've done something this year that we haven't done before," Bowden said. "Our offense against BYU took the ball and scored the first seven times they got the ball. Then against Georgia Tech, we took the ball and scored the first five times we got the ball.
"But defensively, we've had a hard time stopping the big play. We'll go out there and stop a team, and stop a team, and stop a team and then whoop. So if they ever get that squared away we'll be a pretty good ballclub.
"Another thing is, nobody's crushed us. We haven't been blown out. We've been right down to the wire with everybody, which maybe with one play less for them or one play more for us, we could be up at the top."
Coach Bowden putting positive spin on losing season, what is next Glenn Beck and Keith Olberman become dining partners? At least the Noles are 27-11 ATS after two or more consecutive losses against the spread.
North Carolina has been done in by anemic offense. The Tar Heels rank No. 101 in rushing, No. 103 in passing, which ends up totaling 282.2 yards per game, 117th in total offense. Take away the wins against FCS Georgia Southern and The Citadel and North Carolina is the worst offensive team in the country. Subtract those two games and the Tar Heels are averaging 59.7 yards per game on the ground.
With no running game and QB T.J. Yates being rushed continually when dropping back to pass, and never in sync with receivers, the offense has scored 12 or fewer points three times on the year. UNC also averages almost three turnovers a game and is 12-26 ATS at home after playing a non-conference tilt.
Despite no offensive support, the Tar Heels stop troops rank third in the country in total defense at 237.7 yards per game. The numbers are somewhat misleading based on competition; however they would still be in the Top 20 defensively if just the four FBS teams were counted.
Betonline.com has North Carolina as 2.5-point favorites with total of 48 in the first ever Thursday-night televised home game for the Tar Heels in school history. The Heels are 6-2 with 3-5 ATS in last eight weekday games. They are 1-14-1 against Florida State, with 8-8 ATS mark and 7-0 ATS after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half.
If the Seminoles defense can't get healthy against this offense, there is no hope for the season. Florida State is 9-4 ATS as an underdog since 2005 (includes bowls), yet 4-13 ATS in road games against teams who commit 2.5 or more turnovers a game.
The Worldwide Leader has this ACC clash at 7:45 Eastern and will undoubtedly make reference to Florida State having never lost four in a row with Bobby Bowden patrolling the sidelines. Including Labor Day loss, the Noles are 0-5 ATS on weekdays.
Tips and Trends
Florida State at North Carolina
Florida State: The resolve of Florida State can be questioned as for the first time the Seminoles are 0-3 in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Questionable coaching and a cluster injury problem on defense have contributed to the Seminoles being 2-4 for the first time since 1976. Florida State’s defensive line has only three sacks and will be missing tackle Budd Thacker. The Seminoles rank last in the ACC in total defense, run defense and pass defense. Florida State is allowing more than 18 yards per pass completion, worst in the nation. The Seminoles rank 107th in the country in total defense. Thanks to quarterback Christian Ponder, though, Florida State leads the ACC in total offense. Ponder is the top-ranking passer in the conference throwing for 296.8 yards per game. He has a nine-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio. Ponder threw for five touchdowns in Florida State’s last game, a 49-44 home loss to Georgia Tech.
Florida State is 0-4-1 ATS in its past five Thursday games.
The Seminoles average 44 points a game when scoring first this season. When not scoring first, the Seminoles are averaging 15 points.
Defensive tackle Budd Thacker (MCL) is out.
Linebacker Dekoda Watson (groin) is questionable.
Cornerback Patrick Robinson (ankle) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 23
North Carolina (-3, O/U 49): This matchup is a real contrast in styles because North Carolina has an excellent defense, but its offense struggles. The Tar Heels rate last in the ACC in total offense, averaging 282.2 yards per game. They’ve been ravaged by injuries in their offensive line. The Tar Heels, however, are first in the conference in total defense surrendering 237.7 yards per contest. Defensive end Robert Quinn has 11 tackles for losses, which is the best in the ACC. North Carolina leads the nation in pass defense. The Tar Heels, though, have not gone up a quarterback as good as Ponder. Quarterback T.J. Yates has thrown seven interceptions and six touchdown passes, while completing 60 percent of his throws. It’s the first Thursday night game in UNC history. North Carolina is 1-14-1 lifetime against Florida State, although the last time the two teams met was 2004.
North Carolina is 6-13 ATS when favored.
The Over is 4-1 in North Carolina’s last five home games.
Center Lowell Dyer (shoulder) is out.
Tight end Zach Pianalto (foot) is out.
Offensive tackle Kyle Jolly (leg) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 26 (OVER - Total of the Day)
NCAAF Week 8
Thursday's game
Florida State is 0-3 in ACC, losing by 4-7-5 points, giving up 38.3 ppg; 14 of 22 guys on their two-deep defensive chart are freshmen/sophs, and that youth is catching up with them. North Carolina hasn't played a I-A team in 19 days, losing last two, scoring total of 10 points in losing its two ACC games, 24-7/16-3. Seminoles won seven of last eight games vs Tar Heels, winning last three by combined score of 115-30. Florida St. failed to cover its last five weeknight games. Tar Heels turned ball over nine times in four games against I-A opponents.