Seminoles at Wolfpack: What Bettors Need to Know
By Ben Burns.
Two high-scoring ACC offenses collide Thursday, when Florida State visits North Carolina State in a critical Atlantic Division game.
The Seminoles (6-1, 4-0 ACC) are coming off a bye, which allowed quarterback Christian Ponder to rest his injured elbow. Ponder ruptured a bursa sack near his elbow on his right throwing arm in the Seminoles’ sluggish 24-19 win over Boston College on Oct. 16. The senior pro prospect sat out most of last week but returned to practice Saturday and all reports have him throwing the ball with no issues.
The Wolfpack (5-2, 2-1) also enjoyed a bye last week and claim to be ready for what coach Tom O’Brien is calling the biggest game of his three-year tenure. North Carolina was upset at East Carolina 33-27 on Oct. 16.
THE LINE
Florida State opened as a 3-point road favorite. It was up to 3.5 as of Wednesday, with even a few 4s showing up.
North Carolina State is 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine meetings against the Seminoles, including covering as a 10-point underdog in last year’s 45-42 loss in Tallahassee. The Wolfpack is 7-4 ATS as a home underdog in O’Brien’s three seasons.
THE TOTAL
The total opened at 56.5 and was up to 57.5 on Wednesday.
Florida State is averaging 34.9 and allowing 16.4 points per game. North Carolina State is averaging 36 and allowing 23.71 points per game.
The teams have combined for an average of 49.2 points in their last five meetings.
Heavy rains moved through the area on Wednesday and were forecast to continue into Thursday morning. The rain is expected to stop before kickoff.
The over is 14-4 in the Wolfpack’s last 18 games. The under is 10-4-1 in the Seminoles last 15 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10.
INJURIES
Florida State will be without junior starting right guard David Spurlock (concussion). Redshirt freshman Bryan Stork will replace Spurlock.
North Carolina is reporting no significant injuries to any starters.
Quarterbacks: Russell Wilson vs. Christian Ponder
NC State’s Wilson, a 5-11 dual-threat quarterback, has thrown eight interceptions in his last three games. Wilson completed 20-of-30 passes for 349 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions in last season’s loss to Florida State.
In that game, Ponder went 26 of 40 for 277 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. On the season, Ponder is completing 60 percent of his passes, but he has struggled on the road. The senior is completing just 51.9 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and three interceptions on the road.
BATTLE UP FRONT
Florida State leads the nation in sacks and will be chasing Wilson with sophomore defensive end Brandon Jenkins. The North Carolina State offensive line has surrendered 17 sacks this season.
Like the Seminoles, North Carolina State also has been good at pressuring quarterbacks. The Wolfpack are averaging three sacks a game. With Ponder’s elbow concerns and the FSU O-line missing a starter, you have to expect NC State to bring plenty of pressure.
Tale of the Tape: Florida State at N.C. State
We sure do love these Thursday night college games to get us through to the weekend. This one's going to be huge with N.C. State and Florida State scrapping it out at the top of the ACC. N.C. State is currently set as a 3.5-point underdog with the total at 58.
Offense:
N.C. State quarterback Russell Wilson leads the ACC in passing yards and averages about 306 yards per game through the air, seventh in the nation. He has struggled lately by throwing nine interceptions over his last three games but the Wolfpack still put up 36.5 points per game over that stretch.
N.C. State’s offense owns the nation’s 10th best time of possession, checking in at over 33 minutes per game.
Florida State’s running game that features Chris Thompson, Jermaine Thomas, and Ty Jones is averaging 216.2 yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry. Quarterback Christian Ponder has the Seminoles putting up 195 yards per contest but is coming off a bursa sac injury to his throwing elbow.
Edge: Wolfpack
Defense:
The Seminoles are giving up just 309.5 total yards of offense per game, but give up almost 100 more yards than their average on the road. However, a lot of that has to do with a 47-17 pounding they took at Oklahoma. Florida State allows only 16.1 points per game, which is the No. 13 scoring defense in the nation.
The Seminoles have yielded just 3.1 yards per rushing attempt so far this season.
N.C. State’s defense is steady, ranking among the country’s top 60 in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards and points allowed. However, they just gave up 496 total yards in a 33-27 loss to East Carolina as 7.5-point favorites.
Edge: Seminoles
Special teams:
Florida State averages four punts per game to N.C. State’s 5.3 while they rank 10th and 11th respectively in gross punt yards per game.
Neither team is much of a kickoff return threat as N.C. State averages 18.3 yards to Florida State’s 16.8. Punt returns are relatively close too as the Seminoles check in at 10.1 yards per try , while the Wolfpack is at 7.7 per return.
Edge: Even
From the files of the beat reporters:
"Sometimes great seasons are made on games that you can scratch, crawl and fight." – FSU coach Jimbo Fisher.
“We’re going to have to be perfect, but I think we know that, and play with a lot of emotion. With the week off we got our legs back, and we should be capable of doing those type of things.” – N.C. State coach Tim O’Brien.
Final score prediction: Florida State 27, N.C. State 21
Florida State vs North Carolina State
Underdogs are 8-1 vs spread in last nine Florida State-NC State games, with dogs 4-5 SU in series. Seminoles won last three series games by 3-9-17 points; they've split last six visits here, with dogs 4-2 vs spread in those six games. Florida State won its last five games overall (4-1 against spread); they're 3-1 as favorite this year, 1-0 on road- they're 2-1 on road losing 47-17 at Oklahoma (+7), beating Virginia 34-14 (-7), Miami 45-17 (+6.5). Wolfpack allowed 41-33 points in their losses- they're 2-1 as dog this year, 0-1 at home. Three of last four NC State games went over the total. Home underdogs are 1-5 in ACC games so far this season
Florida State at N.C. State
By Christian Alexander
While it was quite a coup to get the #1 team in the nation – the Oregon Ducks – on Thursday night last week, the game itself turned out to be a real stinker. Flexing their muscles a bit, Oregon thrashed UCLA by a score of 60-13, easily covering the 25 point spread.
While we don’t have the top ranked team again this week, this Thursday does involve a top 20 team and promises to be quite competitive.
To fans of Thursday night college football, the matchup of Florida State and N.C. State is quite a familiar one. In fact, this will be the fourth consecutive time that Florida State has traveled to Raleigh, N.C. to play the Wolfpack in the ESPN Thursday night game of the week. FSU in particular is a regular and this will be their 11th Thursday night game on ESPN. The Seminoles are 6-4 overall in those games and 3-1 against N.C. State.
This series got a real spark in 2000 when FSU assistant head coach Chuck Amato returned to his alma mater to become the head coach of the Wolfpack. From that point on it was year in and year out one of the best matchups in the ACC with six of the last nine games being decided by a touchdown or less. N.C. State’s five wins against FSU ties the school with Clemson for the most wins against Florida State in the ACC.
The vibe has changed a bit since Amato was fired following the 2006 season but even though FSU has won all three since against coach Tom O'Brien, the games have been quite entertaining and often competitive.
Last year was a perfect example of that as the two teams met on Halloween in Tallahassee. When the dust settled, FSU escaped with a 45-42 win thanks to WR Bert Reed's 3-yard touchdown run with 1:36 left.
For the ‘Noles to again get the best of N.C. State, the visitor will need to bring their offensive firepower. That might not be as easy as FSU fans would like considering that QB Christian Ponder is nursing an elbow injury (ruptured bursa sac).
In 2009, Ponder passed for 227 yards and two touchdowns in the win against the Wolfpack but then missed the final four games of the season with a shoulder injury . So far in 2010, Ponder hasn’t been quite as sharp as he was last year but there is little doubt that he is the engine which drives the FSU offense. Ponder has thrown for 1,187 yards and 12 touchdowns while completing 60.4 percent of his passes. The FSU QB has plenty of help from a running game which ranks 19th in the nation.
Even though he has been limited in practice this week, all indications point to Ponder playing against the Wolfpack. Assuming that happens, we’re set to watch two of the best quarterbacks the ACC has to offer.
The other is Russell Wilson who has already made an appearance on Thursday night this season (Sept. 16) when NCSU took care of Cincinnati by a score of 30-19. Wilson, who is generally regarded as the top QB in the ACC, directs a Wolfpack offense that leads the league in passing offense, scoring offense (36 ppg) and total offense (449 ypg). Coach O'Brien’s signal caller is tops in the ACC with 303.4 passing yards per game and 18 touchdowns.
Wilson has a huge challenge awaiting him as he tries to keep that level of production going. Florida State has the top scoring defense in the ACC at 16.1 points per game which is good for 13th in the nation. A big part of that defense is getting pressure on the QB and Florida State does it very well as they lead the nation in sacks. Wilson is a mobile QB and how he responds to the FSU will be a key in this game.
Under first-year coach Jimbo Fisher, the Seminoles are 4-0 in the ACC for the 10th time since they joined the ACC in 1992. Each of those 10 times FSU has gone on to win or share the ACC football title but it worth noting the program has not been to the ACC championship game since 2005
Florida State leads the overall series with North Carolina State 21-9 while both teams are 4-2 against the spread.
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