North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
The North Carolina Tar Heels and the Virginia Tech Hokies will both be gunning for a victory on Thursday when they meet at Lane Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Hokies listed as 16½-point favorites versus the Tar Heels, while the game's total is sitting at 43½.
North Carolina was upset 30-27 by Florida State in Week 8 as a 2-point favorite. The 57 points sailed OVER the posted total of 48.
T.J. Yates threw one TD pass and ran for another in a losing effort for the Tar Heels.
Virginia Tech was upset 28-23 by Georgia Tech in Week 7 as 3.5-point favorites. That game's 51 points went UNDER the night's posted total of 54.
Ryan Williams ran for 100 yards and a touchdown, while catching another in a losing effort.
Team records:
North Carolina: 4-3 SU, 1-4 ATS
Virginia Tech: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
North Carolina most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 4-6
Virginia Tech most recently:
When playing in October are 6-4
When playing on grass are 9-1
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Carolina's last 5 games when playing Virginia Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Carolina's last 5 games on the road
North Carolina is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games on the road
North Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing North Carolina
Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Virginia Tech is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Virginia Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
North Carolina home to Duke, Saturday, November 7
Virginia Tech at East Carolina, Thursday, November 5
Game of the day: North Carolina at Virginia Tech
By Matt Fargo
Line movement
The Hokies opened up as 16.5-point favorites and that number can be had in most places still. Some shops have jumped the number up to -17 and there is a good possibility most will hot that number by game time.
The early total opened at 44 and was quickly bet down to 42 and that is where most other books opened their total at as well.
Injuries
There are no significant injuries on the either side.
Weather
The weather should not be a factor as there is a slight chance of rain with a temperature reaching a low of 55 degrees.
Thursday house of horrors
Playing in Blacksburg is always a challenge for the visiting team. Virginia Tech has won 12 consecutive home games with its last home loss coming October 25, 2007 against Boston College. Since 2003, the Hokies are 40-5 straight up and 23-16-1 ATS in lined games.
Playing in this spot has been solid as Virginia Tech is 9-2 all-time on Thursday night ESPN broadcasts at Lane Stadium.
In their five Thursday night home games since joining the ACC, the Hokies are 4-1 and the defense has put together some incredible efforts. In those five games, they have allowed 183 rushing yards on 115 carries for a gaudy average of 36.6 yards per game and 1.6 yards per carry.
Defensive collapse
The Tar Heels looked like the defense was going to be the deciding factor last week against Florida State. They played well against the run but they were prone to big pass plays in the second half, when they weren't able to get pressure on the quarterback.
After holding the Seminoles to 77 yards of offense through seven possessions, quarterback Christian Ponder directed the offense on four straight scoring drives (three touchdowns, one field goal) that totaled 290 yards with a 9.7 yards per pass. He completed his last 16 passes.
The Tar Heels are still ranked first in the ACC in total defense but a meltdown like last week is something that might take a while to go away.
Defensive déjà vu?
The Virginia Tech defense in 2009 looks awfully familiar to that of the 2008 version.
Virginia Tech's defense ranked no better than 33rd in every major category after seven games last year. The Hokies then pulled it together, closed the season with a smothering run, won the ACC Championship and the Orange Bowl and ended up seventh in the country in total defense.
Fast forward to 2009, and the Hokies are 31st nationally in total defense, having mixed in a few defensive duds with a couple great performances.
The defense has allowed 12 rushes of 20 yards or longer. In twice as many games last season, it allowed only 14. In order for the Hokies to even sniff the possibility of the ACC Championship, a defensive resurgence will need to take place once again.
Rushing numbers don’t lie
The team that wins the rushing battle will likely win this matchup and there are some interesting statistics heading into this game.
The Tar Heels defense is ranked second in the ACC in rushing, allowing 102.6 yards per game on 2.1 yards per carry. But send them on the road and the numbers skyrocket to 194.5 yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry. The Hokies meanwhile are averaging 203.7 yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry on the year including 259.2 yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry at home.
Last week against the Seminoles, the Tar Heels ran for 238 yards on 5.8 yards per carry but that may have been an aberration. North Carolina is now averaging 98.0 yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry in conference games which shows how bad it was coming in.
Since the start of the 1999 season, Virginia Tech is 95-10 when outrushing its opponent.
Carolina road woes
Since ACC expansion in 2004, the Tar Heels are 1-13 in ACC road games outside of the state of North Carolina and that includes a 0-1 record this season after a 24-7 loss at Georgia Tech.
North Carolina hasn't beaten a ranked opponent on the road since a 38-3 win at Clemson on October 20, 2001 a span of 16 games. Those losses have come by an average of 22.6 ppg.
Virginia Tech is 5-0 against North Carolina since joining the ACC in 2004, and the five-game winning streak matches the longest by either team in the series. The average margin of victory in those five games is 13 ppg but three of those have been decided by a touchdown or less.
Bottom Line
Virginia Tech is 16-6 ATS it its last 22 Thursday games and it is 7-2 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Meanwhile the Tar Heels are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
As for the total, North Carolina is 12-2 to the under against teams averaging 8.5 or more yards per attempt since 1992 while the Hokies are 6-0 to the under in home games against passing teams with a completion rate of 58 percent or more over the last three seasons.
North Carolina (4-3, 1-4 ATS) at (14) Virginia Tech (5-2, 3-4 ATS)
North Carolina plays in the Thursday night prime-time spotlight for the second straight week, only hoping for better results this time around as it heads to Lane Stadium in Blacksburg for an ACC clash with the 14th-ranked Hokies.
The Tar Heels (0-3 SU and ATS in the ACC) squandered a 24-6 third-quarter lead last Thursday night to Florida State and fell 30-27 as a two-point home favorite. North Carolina’s normally stout defense got torched for 438 total yards (395 through the air), and despite a 238-43 edge in rushing, the Tar Heels suffered their third consecutive SU and ATS Division I-A loss, all to ACC foes, to remain winless in conference play.
Virginia Tech (3-1, 2-2 in the ACC) was idle last week as it recovered from a tough 28-23 setback at Georgia Tech as a 3½-point road chalk on Oct. 17. The defeat snapped the Hokies’ five-game winning streak (3-2 ATS) and continued their trend of alternating spread-covers over the past eight games. Against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech QB Tyrod Taylor was 10-for-14 passing for 159 yards and a TD pass and added 63 rushing yards and another score, but he threw two interceptions as the Hokies held the ball for just 21½ minutes. Meanwhile, the defense got run over, surrendering 309 rushing yards.
North Carolina has split its two road contests (0-2 ATS), while Virginia Tech is unbeaten through four games at Lane Stadium (3-1 ATS).
The Hokies have won all five meetings in this series since joining the ACC in 2004, going 3-2 ATS. Last year, Virginia Tech rallied from a 17-3 third-quarter deficit to pull out a 20-17 victory as a 3½-point underdog, the only time in the last five meetings that the Hokies weren’t favored by double digits. In that contest, North Carolina QB T.J. Yates suffered a season-ending knee injury in the second half, and backup Mike Paulus came on and threw two critical interceptions that aided Virginia Tech’s comeback. The visitor has cashed in each of the last three meetings.
The Hokies have scored 23 points or more in all but one game this season and are averaging 32.6 points and 380 total yards per game, including 203.7 rushing ypg, which ranks 15th in the nation. Taylor is having a solid junior season, passing for 1,154 yards (57.6 percent completion rate) with nine TDs and three INTs, but his TD run against Georgia Tech was just his first of the season after tallying 13 rushing scores in his first two years.
Although fully recovered from last year’s knee injury, Yates has struggled throwing the ball, completing 59 percent of his passes for 1,028 yards with seven TDs offset by eight INTs, and last week against Florida State he was 12-for-25 for just 64 yards with a TD and an INT. Against ACC defenses, Yates is averaging just 106.3 passing ypg with two TDs and five INTs. As a team, North Carolina is putting up 23.1 points and just 289.3 total yards per game (128.7 rushing ypg), and the Heels have only managed 37 total points in their three conference defeats.
Both defenses have been solid, with UNC (16.4 ppg, 266.3 total ypg) holding a slight statistical edge over Virginia Tech (19.1 ppg, 317.4 total ypg). The big discrepancy is in rushing defense, with the Tar Heels allowing 102.6 rushing ypg (2.8 per carry), while the Hokies give up 150.3 ypg on the ground (3.9 per carry).
The Tar Heels are in ATS funks of 1-6-1 in the regular season, 1-4 on the road, 1-4 on Thursday and 1-5 in ACC play (0-3 this year), but they’ve cashed in eight of 11 after a non-cover and are 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six when catching more than 10 points. Va-Tech has failed to cash in six of seven in October and nine of 13 as a chalk, but otherwise the Hokies are on pointspread upticks of 4-1 at home, 29-13 in conference, 7-2 against teams with a winning record, 4-1 on Thursday and 4-0 after an ATS setback.
The over is on runs of 5-1 with the Heels as a ‘dog, 4-1 with the Heels playing on Thursday, 5-2 for the Heels in October, 4-1 for Virginia Tech in October and 5-2 with Virginia Tech favored by more than 10 points. Conversely, UNC has stayed low in four of five on the road, and the Hokies are on “under” stretches of 15-5 at home and 10-1 on Thursday. Finally, the under is 4-1 in this rivalry since Virginia Tech joined the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH and UNDER
North Carolina Vs Virginia Tech Preview
By Vernon Croy
This Thursday, two teams from the ACC that have underwhelmed this season will face off. The one-time National Championship hopefuls Virginia Tech will face the one-time Top 25 North Carolina Tarheels. Since those lofty expectations were thrown on both teams, they have stumbled a few times and looked sloppy at times. The Hokies are favored to win in this one, but it should be a pretty good game between two talented teams.
The North Carolina Tarheels started out the season ranked at #21 after a good finish to the season last year. However, they came out of the gate and stubbed their toe with losses to Georgia Tech and Virginia. Their offense was supposed to be the strong point for the team, but they looked awful in the first part of the season. Then last week, they looked pretty good but still managed to give up an 18 point lead and lose to Florida State. Butch Davis is a great coach and before this season was considered one of the brightest coaches in the ACC. However, his legacy will be a little tarnished unless he can right the ship and win a few more games this season.
The Virginia Tech Hokies were ranked as highly as #4 in the country after beating #9 Miami. Then they ran into a buzz-saw against Georgia Tech and got taken down a few spots to their current #14 ranking. Their national title hopes are pretty much gone, however, they can still grab an ACC championship if the cards fall right. They have one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in Tyrod Taylor who has the ability to change any game when he decides to play. Right now he is ranked 4th in the country in quarterback rating. This one should be a good battle in the tough ACC.
Tips and Trends
North Carolina at Virginia Tech
North Carolina: North Carolina is seeking to beat a Top 25 team on the road for the first time since 2001. The Tar Heels have lost three of their last four games despite having the No. 7 ranked defense in the nation. The problem for North Carolina is an offense that ranks 114th. The Tar Heels averaged only 164 yards and managed just a combined 10 points during Atlantic Coast Conference losses to Georgia Tech and Virginia. They bounced back from those losses to post a 42-12 non-conference victory against Georgia Southern, but then fell to Florida State, 30-27, last week blowing an 18-point second-half lead. The Tar Heels did rush for 238 yards in that loss. North Carolina has covered seven of the past 10 times it has been an underdog under coach Butch Davis. The Tar Heels, though, are 1-5 against the spread in their past six ACC matchups.
The Under is 7-2 in North Carolina’s last nine road contests versus a team with a winning home mark.
North Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.
Key Injuries - Linebacker Ryan Taylor (knee) is questionable.
Wide receiver Joshua Adams (shoulder) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 13
Virginia Tech (-16.5, O/U 43): After losing its season opener to Alabama, Virginia Tech won five in a row until losing its last game at Georgia Tech, 28-23. The Hokies had trouble with the Yellow Jackets’ spread-option offense surrendering 309 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. However, in their previous three games the Hokies had allowed 142 yards rushing. Tyrod Taylor is averaging 204 yards throwing in his last three games while connecting for five touchdowns. Freshman tailback Ryan Williams has rushed for 100 yards or more in five of the Hokies’ past six games. The Hokies are 5-0 against North Carolina since joining the ACC. They’ve held the Tar Heels to an average of 12.8 points and 274.6 yards. Virginia Tech just nipped North Carolina, 20-17, last year at Chapel Hill. The Hokies have covered in seven of their last nine games when facing a team with a winning record.
Virginia Tech is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 ACC matchups.
The Hokies are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - Guard Sergio Render (pectoral) is questionable.
Defensive lineman John Graves (ankle) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 30 (Side of the Day)
N CAROLINA (4 - 3) at VIRGINIA TECH (5 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA TECH is 1-1 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH
N CAROLINA: 0-4 ATS off 2 game home stand
VIRGINIA TECH: 16-6 ATS on Thursday night
NORTH CAROLINA vs. VIRGINIA TECH
North Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Virginia Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Carolina's last 5 games when playing Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Virginia Tech is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home