Nebraska at Missouri
By Christian Alexander
#24 Nebraska (3-1, 0-0 Big 12) at #21 Missouri (4-0, 0-0 Big 12)
Needless to say, this is a game that Nebraska coaches, players and fans have had circled for quite some time. Getting beat two years in a row by a combined score of 93-23 will do that to a program. But 2009 is a new year and so when 24th ranked Nebraska travels to Columbia, MO this Thursday night to face 21st ranked Missouri, revenge will be foremost on the mind of the visitors.
No question that this game should have a decidedly different feel than in the past two years. Missouri had a Big 12-high six players selected in the 2009 NFL Draft including WR Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia Eagles), DT Evander Hood (Pittsburgh Steelers), S William Moore (Atlanta Falcons), TE Chase Coffman (Cincinnati Bengals), OL Colin Brown (Kansas City Chiefs) and DE Stryker Sulak (Oakland Raiders). That list doesn’t even include the person most responsible for the lopsided Mizzou wins over the past two seasons, QB Chase Daniel, who went undrafted and is currently with the New Orleans Saints.
Very few programs can lose that type of talent, particularly on offense and not witness a drop off in production. Last season the Tigers scored 40 points or more in eight of their 14 games. This season they haven’t done it yet except for the game against Furman, a I-AA program or to use the new terminology, a school from the Division I Football Championship Subdivision.
Of course, that loss of talent and drop off in offensive production hasn’t affected the most important metric for coach Gary Pinkel as his team is a perfect 4-0 on the season with wins over Illinois, Bowling Green, Nevada and the aforementioned Purple Paladins.
Blaine Gabbert is doing a pretty good impersonation of Daniel as only eight quarterbacks in the country have posted a better efficiency rating than his 168.6 and he's yet to throw an interception in 131 pass attempts. The sophomore is distributing the ball to dangerous receivers such as Danario Alexander and Jared Perry while RB Derrick Washington provides a nice option on the ground. Alexander in particular has proven to be a favorite target of Gabbert and he ranks second in the Big 12 in receptions (29) and receiving yards (404), trailing only Texas' Jordan Shipley.
Missouri won’t be the only program that has a different feel to it in this game. Now entering the second season under coach Bo Pelini, Nebraska is returning to its football roots. No, that doesn’t mean you’ll be seeing the vaunted Husker option attack on offense anytime soon, but it does mean the old school nasty defense is returning for Nebraska.
2007 must have been a particularly appalling year for Cornhusker fans with an appreciation for the way Nebraska football has been played over the years. That season, the last for coach Bill Callahan, Nebraska surrendered over 30 points in eight of its game, twice getting torched for over 60 points.
2008 saw some improvement on defense but that progress seems to have really picked up this season as through four games, the Huskers are ranked No. 3 nationally in scoring defense (7.0 points per game) and No. 23 in total defense (285 yards per game). It starts with a rock solid defensive line which is led by All-America candidate Ndamukong Suh, a punishing presence on the interior.
On offense, Nebraska is also slowly starting to return to its roots after going through a painful and awkward attempt by Callahan to convert the offense to a pro-style system. As mentioned, they aren’t using the classic option that was perfected by QBs such as Tommie Frazier and Eric Crouch but the offense is via the ground game more and more. Evidence of that was recently seen in the game at Virginia Tech where Nebraska RB Roy Helu steamrolled the Hokies defense for 169 rushing yards. The Cornhuskers lost that game in heartbreaking fashion 16-15 but overall it was a position sign for the direction of the program.
Helu, along with QB Zac Lee give opposing defenses plenty to prepare for and you can be sure that Missouri, fresh off a game in which Nevada gashed their defensive front for 218 rushing yards, will have to be ready.
Winning at Missouri, a place they haven’t notched a win at since 2001, would obviously be another big step in Pelini’s attempt to bring Nebraska back to the forefront of the Big 12. The Big 12 North figures to be a three horse race between Nebraska, Missouri and Kansas and so the winner here will have positioned themselves nicely for a run in the second half of the season.
Nebraska is a perfect 4-0 against the spread this season while Missouri is 2-1 ATS.
VegasInsider.com
Games to Watch - Week 6
By Chris David
Nebraska at Missouri
The six schools that make up the North Division in the Big 12 haven't received much respect in recent years, and deservingly so too. The conference has been owned by the South, in particular Oklahoma and Texas. Not many pundits believe Nebraska (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) or Missouri (4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) can knock off the Sooners or Longhorns, but one of the two will gain more confidence after this week's head-to-head battle from Columbia. Both schools are listed in the Top 25 but neither owns a signature win. Nebraska's three victories have come against Sun Belt opponents and the lone loss was at Virginia Tech (16-15), who might be a tad overrated as well. Missouri shouldn't get much credit either, considering its four wins have come against teams with a combined record of 6-12. Nebraska's defense is ranked third nationally in scoring defense (7 PPG) and 23rd in total yards (285 YPG). Missouri did lose QB Chase Daniels to graduation but sophomore Blaine Gabbert (1,161 yards, 11 TDs) has proven to be a solid predecessor behind center. Missouri is catching points in this primetime showdown and gamblers should note that it has won and covered three of the last four against the Cornhuskers, plus all three wins came by double digits.
vegasinsider.com
Nebraska heads to Missouri
By AllStar.com
ESPN Thursday Night Football brings us a clash in the Big 12 with upstart Nebraska against undefeated Missouri, the winner becomes the Big 12 North front-runner. Missouri has enjoyed quite the role reversal in this series. After losing all 24 match ups with Nebraska between 1979 and 2002, Mizzou has won four of the past six, including the past two by a combined 93-23. Tigers quarterback Blaine Gabbert a one-time Huskers commitment is fourth in the nation in passing efficiency, but he will be going against the top scoring defense in the country. Nebraska has allowed only two touchdowns, but three of the Huskers' four games have been against Sun Belt Conference teams. The winner of the NU-Mizzou contest has been the North representative in the Big 12 title each of the past three seasons.
The No. 24 ranked Missouri Tigers (4-0) is currently on a four game winning streak coming off their latest win, 31-21over the Nevada Wolf Pack. The No. 21 ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers will be coming off a bye week with their latest win coming against non-conference Louisiana-Lafayette 55-0 on Sept 26. The Huskers now head to Columbia, where they haven’t won since 2001. The Tigers routed the Huskers, 52-17 in their last meeting on Oct. 4, 2008. The Tigers are among the nation’s most explosive offensive units entering the contest, ranking 16th in total offense.
The Huskers will bring a 3-1 record to Columbia with the lone setback a 16-15 loss at No. 6 Virginia Tech on Sept. 19. Overall, Nebraska has outscored the opposition 157-28 through four games, including three lopsided home victories. Nebraska is ranked 22nd in the coaches’ poll and 21st according to the Associated Press (Oct. 4 rankings).
Quarterbacks: Mizzou QB Blaine Gabbert currently leads the Big 12 in passing efficiency at 168.6. Gabbert passed for 414 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-21 win at Nevada on Sept. 25. He has thrown for 1,161 yards and 11 TDs with no interceptions this season. The sophomore directs an offense that ranks 15th in FBS in points per game (36.8) and 16th in yards per contest (453.0), although he has yet to face a defense that is nearly as talented as Nebraska's.
Nebraska’s QB Zac Lee is a drop back passer and is 68-105 for 927 yards with 7TD’s and 3 Int’s. Lee has a QB Rating 155.21 and projects with 2781 yards passing over the course of the year, Nebraska is 19th in the Football Bowl Subdivision with 440.0 yards per game and ninth with 39.3 points a contest, but the defense has been even better.
Running Backs: The Tigers will need to address its running game, which have converted just seven of its 15 red-zone opportunities into touchdowns, the lowest rate in the Big 12, if the want to make a run at the division title. Derrick Washington has run 68-301 yards with 4.4 yards per carry and two TD’s. The two other rushing Touchdowns for the season come from QB Gabbert.
The Huskers as usual have a power running attack led by Roy Helu with (73-464 is averaging 6.8 yards per carry) and five TD’s. Rex Burkhead has 18-84 with a 4.7 ypc and a TD. QB Zac Lee is not afraid to tuck in the ball and run with two TD’s and a 13.2 yard per carry average.
Wide Receivers: Nebraska has three WR’s with over 10 catches but none with more than two TD’s. Lee likes to spread the ball around but needs to throw for more TD’s. Roy Helu has caught 11-91 with 8.3 yards per catch average; Mike McNeil has 11-138 12.5 ypc average and two TD’s, Niles Paul 10-110-11ypc and one TD.
Senior WR Danario Alexander leads MU with 29 receptions and 404 receiving yards. He’s also got 4 TDs, which is 2nd-best behind senior Jared Perry. Alexander won the Big 12 co-Offensive Player of the Week on Sept. 28th for his 9-catch, 170-yard, and 2-TD game in MU’s 31-21 win in Reno.
Defense: Nebraska’s defense has improved from last season, and is ranked No. 3 nationally in scoring defense (7.0 points per game) and No. 23 in total defense (285 yards per game). The Blackshirts will focus on defending sophomore quarterback Blaine Gabbert and the Missouri passing offense. Nebraska has allowed 28 points through four games this season, and the 7.0 points per game average leads the nation. Nebraska has held four straight opponents under 20 points for the first time since a streak of five games to open the 2003 season. Nebraska allowed an average of 115.8 yards rushing in its first four games of 2009, and has allowed two rushing touchdowns. Nebraska has had 10 sacks through four games and has at least three sacks in six of eight games dating back to last fall.
The Tiger defense is led by the play of linebacker Sean Weatherspoon. Through four games, Spoon ranks 5th in the Big 12 with his 9.50 tackles per game average (38 total). He’s coming off a 9-tackle game at Nevada where he registered 1 TFL and a 1/2 QB sack as the Tiger defense held the potent Wolf Pack attack in check for most of the night. Missouri has an adequate defense but gave up 218 rushing yards against the Wolf Pack. Mizzou’s defensive ranks anywhere from 21st to 68th nationally in the major defensive stat categories. The Tiger defense is doing a great job of limiting big plays by opposing offenses so far, with only 8 plays going for 20 yards or more against them in 2009.
The Series:This game will mark the 102nd all-time meeting between the schools, with Nebraska holding a 63-35-3 overall edge. Missouri has been victorious in the past two meetings and has won three straight at Faurot Field. This will mark the fifth time since the inception of the Big 12 that NU has opened league play against the Tigers, with the Huskers holding a 3-1 advantage in those games.
In the past 10 meetings between the two schools, none of the match ups have been decided by single digits. The closest game in that stretch is a 24-13 Nebraska victory in 2002. The recent history of large victory margins is a series oddity. In the decades of the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, 19 of the 30 meetings between the schools were decided by 11 or fewer points.
Nebraska has lost seven in a row and 14 of 15 road games against ranked opponents.
The combined record of Missouri's four opponents is 6-12; with Football Championship Subdivision team Furman accounting for three of those victories against its Southern Conference foes. Thursday Missouri finds out what they are all about against some serious Big 12 competition.
Betting Trends:
Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
Missouri is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
The HOME TEAM is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 games between the two teams
The UNDER is 4-1 Nebraska’s last 5 games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Missouri’s last 5 games
Game of the day: Nebraska at Missouri
By Matt Fargo
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Missouri Tigers (+3, 54)
Line Movement
Missouri was catching a point in some places and two points in most shops when this number came out Sunday. The line has been driven up to three points across the board and that is where it will likely stay until we get closer to game time.
The total opened at 54.5 to 55 and has been brought down to 54 and in some cases 53.5, so the early money is on a low scoring game.
Injuries
There are no significant injuries to report on either side.
Weather
It looks like a perfect fall night in the Midwest with mostly clear skies and a temperature of 63 degrees with hardly any wind.
Return of the Blackshirts
Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini has brought some fight back into the once-proud Huskers defense. They allowed 37.9 ppg and 476.8 ypg in 2007, which were both school records and neither of which they were proud of. In 2008, they dropped those averages to 28.5 ppg and 349.9 ypg, which were certainly not great but it was an improvement.
Through four games in 2009, the “Blackshirts” are back as they have allowed only 7.0 ppg and 285.5 ypg, first and 21st respectively in the country. Playing three teams from the Sun Belt has had a lot to do with this but it held Virginia Tech to 16 points, its lowest output of the season, and only 278 total yards.
A strong defensive performance on the road against one of the league's best offenses would at least be a sign that the Huskers are returning to their glory days, or at least no longer embarrassing themselves.
Chase who?
If someone was asked who would be leading the Big 12 in passing efficiency a quarter of the way into the season, the answer would probably have a last name of Bradford, McCoy, Robinson or even Reesing.
Not Gabbert.
Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert is leading the conference in pass efficiency, throwing for 11 touchdowns and no interceptions with 1,161 yards through four games. Where did he come from?
He is actually the highest recruit for a quarterback Missouri has even landed and ironically, he originally committed to Nebraska but backed out after the firing of head coach Bill Callahan.
“I’m looking forward to playing them like all of my games,” Gabbert told reporters. “But the fact it’s Nebraska doesn’t make it any bigger or more important for me.”
New king of the mountain
Nebraska used to rule this series, defeating the Tigers 24 straight times from 1979 to 2002 by an average of more than three touchdowns. Since then, it has been the complete opposite as Missouri has won four of the last six meetings including three straight at home.
This also includes a Tigers win in Lincoln last season by a score of 52-17, which was their first win at Memorial Stadium since 1978. The Huskers did not take it well and coach Pelini was “embarrassed” and apologized “to the state of Nebraska [and] everyone associated with Nebraska football.”
That makes 93 points allowed to the Tigers over the last two seasons so Nebraska is really hoping the early success of the defense is no fluke. If so, another apology may be in store after Thursday.
Rushing dogs no more
While the passing game has been efficient, the Tigers’ running game has been a huge disappointment.
A year ago, they averaged 5.2 ypc including 5.8 ypg in its four non-conference games. But this year, it's down to 3.8 ypc. Even though they are averaging eight more carries per game, they are averaging 143 ypg which is 51 yards less per game than at this point last season.
Missouri has changed its blocking schemes this season, going to a zone system, and Tigers head coach Gary Pinkel said the transition is taking longer than they had expected. Now that conference action is underway, it had better come around quickly.
Conversely, the Huskers averaged 155.5 ypg on 4.8 ypc during non-conference action last season. Through four games this year, they have averaged 183.8 ypg on 5.7 ypc.
Bottom Line
Both teams have been cashing tickets this season with Nebraska a perfect 4-0 ATS and Missouri not far behind at 3-1 ATS. Both teams have kept the scoring down more than expected as they come in with identical 3-1 records to the Under.
The Huskers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games while the Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
The home team has covered six of the last seven meetings in this series.
(21) Nebraska (3-1, 4-0 ATS) at (24) Missouri (4-0, 2-1 ATS)
The college football weekend kicks off with a key Big 12 North showdown, as Nebraska makes the trek to Faurot Field to battle the unbeaten Tigers.
The Cornhuskers rebounded from a heartbreaking, last-second 16-15 loss at Virginia Tech with a 55-0 whitewash of Louisiana-Lafayette on Sept. 26, easily cashing as a 30-point home chalk, the team’s fifth-consecutive spread-cover. In its three non-conference home wins – all against Sun Belt conference squads Florida International, Arkansas State and UL-Lafayette – Nebraska outscored its opponents by a combined 142-12 and outgained them by a total of 558 yards. However, against its toughest opponent to date, the Huskers managed just five field goals at Virginia Tech.
Despite losing several key starters from the last two Big 12 North championship teams, including record-setting QB Chase Daniel and electrifying receiver/kick returner Jeremy Maclin, the Tigers haven’t missed a beat. They ripped through their non-conference schedule, posting three double-digit wins (37-9 over Illinois, 52-12 over Furman, 31-21 over Nevada), as well as a narrow 27-20 victory over Bowling Green. Missouri had the yardage edge in all four victories, with net total offensive gain of 405 yards.
Missouri stomped on Nebraska on its way to the last two Big 12 North titles, rolling 41-6 as a 6½-point home favorite in 2007 and 52-17 as a 10-point road chalk last year. The Tigers’ victory in Lincoln last season ended a six-year SU and ATS run by the home team in this rivalry, with Missouri going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings in Columbia. The favorite has gotten the money in the last three battles, and the SU winner is 8-0 ATS in the past eight head-to-head clashes.
Nebraska QB Zac Lee is off to a strong junior season, completing 64.8 percent of his throws for 928 yards with seven TDs and three INTs. However, Mizzou sophomore Blaine Gabbert has been even better, connecting on 66.4 percent of his passes for 1,161 yards with 11 TDs and no interceptions in 131 pass attempts, and he also has 80 rushing yards and two scores. Last year, as Daniel’s backup, Gabbert threw just 13 passes.
The Huskers have the rushing advantage on both sides of the ball, gaining 183.8 yards per game on the ground (5.7 per carry) and allowing 115.2 rushing ypg (3.2 per carry). That includes a 207-86 rushing edge in the loss at Virginia Tech. Missouri grinds out 143 rushing ypg (3.8 per carry) and surrenders 133.8 ypg (3.7 per carry), and that includes getting outgained 218-78 on the ground in its 31-21 win at Nevada two weeks ago.
In addition to its 5-0 ATS run overall, Nebraska has cashed in seven of its last eight and is on additional pointspread streaks of 4-1 on the road, 4-1 on Thursday, 5-1 as a favorite and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Tigers are in ATS slumps of 0-4 at home, 1-6 after a spread-cover, 0-4 versus winning teams and 2-6 after a bye.
The over is 4-0 in Nebraska’s last four Big 12 games and 4-0 in its last four after a bye week, while Missouri has topped the total in 11 of 15 as an underdog and four of five as a home pup. Conversely, the under is on runs of 4-1 for the Huskers overall, 7-1 for the Huskers in October, 8-2 for the Huskers when playing on grass, 4-0 for Mizzou overall, 6-1 for Mizzou at home and 7-0 for Mizzou after an ATS triumph.
Finally, the over is 3-1 in the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEBRASKA
CFB Streaks & Notes
By SportsPic
Nebraska at Missouri
The Big-12 North takes center stage Thursday night as Missouri Tigers try to extend their perfect mark against visiting Nebraska Cornhuskers. Tigers have won their first four games of the season defeating Illinois, Bowling Green, Furman and most recently Nevada. Tigers put up 36.8 points/game against those non-conference foes behind 310 passing, 143 rushing yards/game. On the other side of the ball Tigers gave up 15.5 PPG on 351.8 total yards. As for Huskers, they opened with a pair of easy victories over Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State then suffered a tough 15-16 loss at Virginia Tech followed by a 55-0 spanking of UL Lafayette in the most recent contest. Nebraska scores 39.2 PPG on 440.2 total yards of which 265.5 comes via air-way, 183.8 on the ground. Defensively, Huskers have really impressed giving up just 7.0 PPG and 285.5 total yards/game while forcing seven turnovers and recording 10 sacks. Tigers thumped the Huskers 52-17 in Lincoln last season knotting up the series at 4-4 SU & ATS the past eight meetings. It is well to note Tigers have won the last three as host covering in each case. Tigers 3-7 ATS last ten vs the conference have been pegged 3 point underdogs.
Tips and Trends
Nebraska at Missouri
Nebraska (-3.5, O/U 53): The Cornhuskers are getting tremendous respect from the linemakers and early bettors considering they lost 52-17 to then No. 4 Missouri last Oct. 4, their most lopsided home defeat since 1955. The Tigers were minus 10 ½ in that matchup and led 52-10 in the third quarter before letting up. Now Nebraska has climbed above a field goal favorite. The 21st-ranked Cornhuskers are 3-1 having beaten Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State and Lafayette by a combined margin of 142-12. Nebraska’s lone defeat came at then No. 13 Virginia Tech, 16-15, when the Hokies scored with 21 seconds left on a miraculous play. Nebraska is ninth in the country averaging 39.3 points, but a key question is how well can quarterback Zac Lee pass? The Cornhuskers are first in scoring defense holding foes to seven points a game. Nebraska, though, is 6-13 against the spread following a bye week.
The Under is 8-2 in the Cornhuskers’ last 10 games on grass.
Nebraska is 7-1 to the under in its last eight October contests.
Key Injuries - Safety Rickey Thenarse (knee) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 28
Missouri: Missouri embarrassed Nebraska last year, but the Tigers have lost 26 of the past 30 games in this series. The 24th-ranked Tigers open Big 12 play having gone 4-0 with victories against Illinois (37-9), Bowling Green (27-20), Furman (52-12) and Nevada (31-21). The combined record of these opponents is 6-12, with Football Championship Subdivision team Furman responsible for three of those six victories. Sophomore quarterback Blaine Gabbert has stepped up to throw for 1,161 yards and 11 touchdowns with no interceptions. The Tigers are averaging 36.8 points, 15th-best in the country. Missouri has won 23 of its last 27 home contests. The Tigers have won three straight against Nebraska when playing at Faurot Field. The home team has covered in six of the last seven in the series. The Tigers, however, are 3-10 against the spread when hosting a team off a straight-up and against the spread road win.
The Over is 11-4 in Missouri’s last 15 games as an underdog.
The Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games when getting 3 ½ to 10 points.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 25 (Side of the Day)