Pittsburgh at UConn: What Bettors Need to Know
Pittsburgh looks to strengthen its hold on the top spot in the Big East Conference when it visits Connecticut on Thursday night.
Odds
Books opened with the Huskies listed as 6.5-point home underdogs Thursday. That number has been bet down as low as +5, forcing action on the other side and settling the spread at +5.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
The total opened at 47 points and has since been moved to as low as 46 points with action on the under.
The Big finish
Pitt (5-3, 3-0 Big East, 4-2-2 ATS) has a comfortable lead atop the Big East standings. While the Panthers are perfect in conference play, each of the other seven teams have two conference losses.
That includes Connecticut (4-4, 1-2, 4-4 ATS), which once was considered a contender for the Big East crown and the automatic BCS bowl bid that comes along with it. Now the Huskies are playing for their bowl lives, needing two victories in their final four games just to become bowl eligible.
Pitt is it
At the beginning of the season, this game would likely have been circled as a matchup between the league’s top teams, but only the Panthers have held up their end of the bargain.
Pittsburgh has won four straight and looks to be the class of the conference with a balanced offense and strong defense.
The Panthers are coming off a 20-3 victory over Louisville on Oct. 30 and are trying to improve to 4-0 in Big East play for the second straight season.
Pitt boasts a strong running game with Dion Lewis and Ray Graham sharing the duties in the backfield, but it has been the improved play of sophomore quarterback Tino Sunseri that has made the Panthers a more complete team.
Sunseri has completed 68.4 percent of his passes for 983 yards and eight touchdowns with just a pair of interceptions in Pitt’s last four games. He completed 63 percent of his passes for 689 yards and had four touchdowns and two interceptions as Pitt split its first four games.
Thanks in part to Sunseri’s improvement, Pitt has outscored its opponents 106 to 38 during its current three-game win streak.
The Pittsburgh defense ranks first in the Big East and eighth in the country against the run, allowing 93.75 yards per game. The Panthers will be tested by UConn running back Jordan Todman.
UConn do it!
Todman is fourth in the country in rushing at 136.3 yards per game. He has found it tougher going lately, though. Opposing defenses have begun to key on him, while trying to make the Huskies move the ball through the air. Todman has rushed for 80 and 113 yards in his last two games against Louisville and West Virginia.
History
The series is tied 3-3 with Pitt having won last season, 24-21 at Heinz Field. The Panthers are 1-2 at Connecticut but might be more concerned about playing a game on a Thursday night.
Pittsburgh has a 6-10 record on Thursday and has dropped nine of its last 11, including a 31-3 loss to Miami on Sept. 23.
Trends
- Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
- Panthers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
- Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog.
Weather
Clear skies are in the forecast for Thursday with game-time temperatures in the low 50s. There is a medium-to-strong wind expected, reaching up to 15 mph and blowing out of the North-Northeast across the field.
NCAAF Odds: Pitt Panthers at UConn
By: Stephen Nover
The last time Pittsburgh took center stage on a Thursday night nationally televised game it was embarrassed as a four-point home underdog by Miami, 31-3.
That was six games ago. It was Pittsburgh’s lowest point. But the Panthers have gone 4-1 since then, including winning and covering all three of their Big East Conference matchups.
The Panthers put their undefeated Big East mark on the line Thursday with a 4:45 p.m. nationally televised (ESPN) road game against Connecticut. The Huskies are 4-4, 1-2 in the Big East.
The Panthers opened 6 ½-point favorites. Pittsburgh is playing its best ball beating and covering the NCAA football spread against Syracuse, Rutgers and Louisville in its last three games by a combined margin of 106-38.
Both Pittsburgh and Connecticut were idle last week. The Huskies are off their biggest win, a 16-13 overtime victory against West Virginia as 4 ½-point home ‘dogs. The combined 29 points dipped well below the 43 ½-point total. Connecticut had been 0-6 against the Mountaineers.
It was the 11th time in 13 games since 2005 that the Huskies have covered as home ‘dogs under Randy Edsall. They are 10-2 ATS as a conference home ‘dog.
Connecticut also is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 Big East games. The Huskies are 9-3 ATS versus opponents with a winning record.
This has been an underdog series with the favorite failing to cover in the past four meetings. Connecticut lost 24-21 last year, but covered as 6 ½-point road ‘dogs. The combined 45 points went ‘under’ the 47-point total. The Panthers outgained the Huskies, 489-303.
The 21 points Connecticut scored against Pittsburgh was its second-lowest regular season total last season. The Huskies had one of their best single-season scoring marks in school history last year putting up 405 points while averaging 31.2 points per game.
This year the Huskies’ offense has underachieved ranking 66th in scoring at 26.6 points per contest. If you discount a 62-point performance against Texas Southern, a non-‘board’ school, the Huskies would be averaging 21.5 points a game. They have scored 40 points in their last three games playing Rutgers, Louisville and West Virginia during that span.
Zach Frazer, Cody Endres and Mike Box have all seen action at quarterback for Connecticut with the senior Frazer back as the starter. The Huskies rank 101st in passing.
Running back Jordan Todman is the Huskies’ key weapon. He’s rushed for 954 yards and scored nine touchdowns. Pittsburgh is 11th in total defense allowing 299 yards a game. The Panthers’ strength is their eighth-ranked run defense that is giving up 93.8 yards a game.
There’s a chance star defensive end Greg Romeus could see his first action since undergoing back surgery on Sept. 17. Romeus was the co-Big East Defensive Player of the Year last season. He helped the Panthers lead the nation in sacks last year with eight.
Sophomore quarterback Tino Sunseri is playing better for Pittsburgh. He has a seven-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last three games.
Dion Lewis has been a major disappointment with just one 100-yard rushing game for Pittsburgh this season after rushing for 1,799 yards and scoring 17 touchdowns as a freshman last year.
Pittsburgh is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games on grass. Connecticut has covered in 16 of its last 22 games.
The ‘over’ has cashed in seven of Connecticut’s last nine conference matchups. The ‘over’ has cashed in 13 of the Huskies’ last 16 home contests.
The early weather forecast for the game is for a clear night with temperatures in the 30s and a six mph wind.
Pitt at UConn Preview
By Christian Alexander
After two weeks in ACC country – and unsuccessful ones for this prognosticator – we’re jumping conferences and heading into the northeast to check out some Big East play. Hopefully the change of scenery will do me some good!
After losing to Notre Dame by a score of 17-23 on October 9, the Pitt Panthers were just 2-3. This was not at all the start that many had predicted for coach Dave Wannstedt’s program, which was by far and away the consensus pick to win the Big East.
But then Big East play started and like a light being turned on, the Panthers came to life. Just over a month removed from that loss to the Irish, Pitt finds itself as the lone undefeated team in the Big East and is trying to achieve a 4-0 conference start for the second straight year.
However, while Pitt is cruising along in the Big East – as many predicted – the way they are winning isn’t the formula most anticipated. After his breakout freshman season, everyone assumed Pitt would ride RB Dion Lewis to victory this season. That hasn’t quite been the case.
Pitt RB Ray Graham was thought of by many as an understudy to Lewis. But when Lewis got off to a slow start, Wannstedt have Graham more chances and the back delivered. The talented backs are joined by first-year starting QB Tino Sunseri, who seems to be improving and getting more comfortable with his role every week. Sunseri will try to get the ball as often as possible to his playmaking WR, Jon Baldwin.
Of course, it’s not all offense as the Pitt defense has really tightened down over the past month. During its current three-game winning streak, Pitt has outscored its opponents 106 to 38 (an average of 35.3 to 12.7) and you certainly don’t achieve those type of numbers without a strong defense. The Panthers are particularly nasty against the rush, allowing just a hair over 93 yards per game on the ground to rank first in the Big East and eighth nationally.
That run-stopping unit will get a test tonight when they travel to Rentschler Stadium to face the Connecticut Huskies. With all due respect to Dion Lewis and Ray Graham, it’s UConn’s Jordan Todman who is stealing the show in the Big East. Todman leads the conference and ranks fourth nationally with 136.29 rushing yards per game.
At 4-4 and 1-2 in conference, this season has been a roller-coaster for coach Randy Edsall. That said, the Huskies are feeling pretty good about themselves after knocking off West Virginia last weekend, 16-13. It doesn’t take a code breaker to figure out the pattern for UConn this season. The Huskies are winless on the road and a perfect 4-0 at home. The competition has generally been tougher on the road for Edsall and his program but that certainly wasn’t the case last weekend when the Huskies knocked off the Mountaineers .
The key for UConn in this one is to limit the Pitt ground game and establish a potent rushing attack of its own. QB Mike Box (concussion) probably won’t play in this one as Edsall will likely turn to QB Zach Frazer, who had a nice game against WVU.
That formula is probably the exact same one that Pitt wants to employ and so it’s pretty simply to understand that whoever does the best job running the ball while limiting the opponent’s ground attack will probably come out ahead this Thursday night.
Pitt is 1-2 when playing Connecticut at Rentschler Field and overall this is the seventh meeting between the two schools with the series being tied, 3-3. Pitt won last year in dramatic fashion at Heinz Field after trailing 21-6 with less than four minutes left in the third quarter. However, the home team rallied to win on a field-goal as time ran out and the 15-point comeback was the largest in coach Dave Wannstedt's five years at Pitt.
The Panthers have been a strong option this year at the betting window with a 4-1 record against the spread. UConn hasn’t been nearly as profitable with a 3-4 ATS mark.
VegasInsider.com
Thursday Previews
Underdog covered last four Pitt-UConn games, winning three of four SU; Panthers won last two years, 24-21/34-10. Huskies are 3-0 at home this year vs I-A teams, upsetting West Virginia in OT last game, even though WV outgained them by 136 yards; they're 1-2 as dog this season. Pitt is 4-0-1 vs spread in last five games, winning last three by 31-20-17; they are 1-2 on road, losing at Utah/Notre Dame, winning at Syracuse. Home underdogs in Big East play are 2-1 so far this season.
Underdog covered six of last eight East Carolina-UAB games, with ECU winning last three by 16-4-35 points; dogs covered Pirates last four trips to UAB, where Blazers are 2-2 this year after losing to Marshall. Dogs are 6-3 vs spread in UAB games this season. East Carolina gave up 125 points in losing last two games 49-35/76-35; they're 1-3 on road, with all three losses by 14+ points (won 44-43 at Southern Miss after trailing in first quarter 20-0). Single digit home favorites are 5-4 vs spread in Sun Belt play this season. Over is 7-2 in East Carolina games this season.
Tips and Trends
Pittsburgh Panthers at Connecticut Huskies
PANTHERS: (-5.5, O/U 47) Pittsburgh has beaten Connecticut the past 2 seasons, and they are hoping the 3rd meeting is just as successful. The Panthers are only 5-3 SU this season, but they are a perfect 3-0 SU in Big East play. Considering the down year overall for the Big East, it's becoming apparent that Pittsburgh is the class of this conference. The Panthers enter tonight with plenty of motivation, as they want to separate themselves from the rest of the Big East. The Panthers have won impressively each of the past 3 weeks. Pittsburgh is 2-0 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. The Panthers defense is playing well, as they are allowing just 19 PPG, 19th best in the nation. QB Tino Sunseri is growning up before our eyes, as he's starting to become the leader of this offense. Sunseri manages a game well, and he's avoiding the costly turnovers that plague new starters at the QB position. Sunseri has thrown for nearly 1,700 YDS this season, along with 12 TD's against 4 INT's. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as the listed favorite. Pittsburgh is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games played on grass. The Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week. The Panthers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
Panthers are 4-0 ATS last 4 conference games.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - DL Greg Romeus (back) is probable.
Projected Score: 20
HUSKIES: Say what you want about the disappointing season Connecticut has had, the bottom line is this team wins at home. The Huskies beat West Virginia last week as the home underdog, a season defining win. UCONN stands at 4-4 both SU and ATS this season, with each game having the same exact result from a SU and ATS standpoint. The Huskies will be motivated for this game tonight, because it's their 2nd to last home game of the year, and it's in a standalone setting. The Huskies are likely to lean on RB Jordan Todman once again, as he powers a running game that averages 175 PYG, 38th in the nation. Todman has rushed for 954 YDS this season, including 9 TD's. At home, no team has scored more than 21 PTS against UCONN. The Huskies are allowing 21.4 PPG overall this season, 38th best in the country. The Huskies are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Connecticut is 9-3 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Huskies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week. Connecticut is 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games. The Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Huskies are 7-1 ATS last 8 games as a home underdog.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games played in November.
Key Injuries - LB David Kenney (leg) is questionable.
Projected Score: 21 (SIDE of the Day)