UCLA at Washington: What Bettors Need to Know
For as poorly as the UCLA Bruins have played at times this season, it’s hard to believe they still have a chance at landing a bowl bid. While that may not have seemed possible a couple of weeks ago, UCLA needs just two more wins to play in the postseason.
They’ll have a good shot at the first one when they visit Washington in a Pac-10 contest Thursday night. The Huskies are looking to snap a three-game skid.
Up To Speed
UCLA (4-5, 2-4 Pac-10) snapped a three-game losing streak of its own with a dramatic 17-14 win over Oregon State in its last outing. Kai Forbath booted a 52-yard field goal on the final play of the game to pace the Bruins.
UCLA had lost its three prior games by a combined score of 124-42. The last time it played on Thursday night was an embarrassing 60-13 loss at top-ranked Oregon.
Washington’s bowl outlook is bleaker but also realistic. The Huskies (3-6, 2-4) have to sweep the remaining three games on their schedule. After UCLA, Washington plays at Cal and at rival Washington State. Those three teams have a combined record of 10-18.
Quarterback matchup
UCLA signal caller Richard Brehaut directed an impressive drive to get in range of the game-winning kick against Oregon State. He took over for Kevin Prince a few games earlier after Prince needed knee surgery and he’s helped elevate UCLA’s anemic passing game.
Washington QB Jack Locker is the big story in this game. Once considered a lock to be the first pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, Locker is struggling living up to expectations this season.
He missed Washington’s game last week after injuring his ribs the week before against Stanford. He’s been cleared to play against UCLA and is expected to start.
Let’s Go Bowling
Neither team is happy with the way their season is going but both are still bowl eligible. Washington needs to win its three remaining games while UCLA needs to win two out of three to play in a postseason bowl game.
"For me, I just would like to see them be able to ride off into the sunset the way they hoped they would when they arrived on this campus," Huskies coach Steve Sarkisian told the Seattle Times.
Thursday’s game will be Washington’s last home game of the season and the Huskies would like nothing more than to close out a disappointed season at Huskies Stadium with a win for the home crowd.
But UCLA is in a pretty much must-win spot against Washington. The Bruins don’t want to be in a situation where they have to beat USC in their last game of the season to make it to the postseason.
"We don't want to talk that way, we want to talk about Washington," UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel told the Los Angeles Times. "If we do what we need to do preparation-wise, we'll give ourselves our best chance."
Weather
It could get ugly Thursday night in Seattle. Game-time temperature is expected to be in the low 40s and there’s a 50 percent chance of rain during the game.
Trends
The under is 20-6-1 in UCLA’s last 27 conference games.
The Huskies are 13-35-3 ATS in their last 51 games as a favorite.
The Bruins are 11-28-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
The Over is 6-2 in the Huskies’ last eight games overall.
Huskies host Bruins in college betting contest
By: Stephen Nover
UCLA and Washington have been two of the most disappointing teams in the Pac-10 this season. But with so many bowl games littering the landscape, the Bruins and Huskies still are bowl-eligible.
That and the anticipated return of Jake Locker make this Thursday matchup (5 p.m. PT on ESPN) at Husky Stadium worth watching.
Washington currently is minus 2 ½ points at the college football betting window with the ‘over/under’ at 53.
The Huskies, at 3-6, need to win out in order to be invited to a bowl game. Locker, linebacker Mason Foster and 15 other seniors shouldn’t lack for motivation as they will be celebrated on what has been designated as “Senior Night.”
Washington closes on the road against California and Washington State. Locker missed the Huskies’ last game because of a broken rib. Both teams were idle last weekend.
Locker is expected to give it a go having had an extra week to recover. He is completing 56 percent of this throws for 1,678 yards with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. These are decent figures, but not the numbers expected of the man considered to be the preseason favorite for the Heisman Trophy and No. 1 overall draft pick.
Redshirt freshman Keith Price would start if Locker is unable. Price was 14-for-28 against Oregon for 127 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions in his first college start.
The Huskies are off three consecutive defeats – 53-16 to Oregon which pushed on the spread since Washington was a 37-point road ‘dog, 41-0 to Stanford as a seven-point home ‘dog and 44-14 to Arizona as six-point road ‘dogs.
Washington is 18-39-2 ATS in its last 59 home games. The Huskies are 28-61-3 in their last 92 Pac-10 matchups.
UCLA entered its bye week on a high note shading Oregon State, 17-14, as a four-point home ‘dog winning on the final play thanks to a 51-yard field goal by Kai Forbath. The combined 31 points went ‘under’ the 53-point total.
Richard Brehaut is the latest to operate the Bruins’ ‘Revolver’ offense, but UCLA’s passing attack ranks near the bottom at 116th. The Bruins could get back playmaking wide receiver Nelson Rosario, who has been hobbling around the past month due to a high ankle sprain.
Randall Carroll has emerged as UCLA’s top receiver with nine receptions for 136 yards in the last two games.
Washington ranks 110th in total defense and 118th in rushing defense. That’s good news for tailback Jonathan Franklin, who leads UCLA with 892 yards rushing and six touchdowns.
The Bruins have to wary of Washington wide receiver Jermaine Kearse, who leads the Huskies with 682 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
UCLA has failed to cover during 10 of the last 14 times it has been an underdog. The Bruins are 11-28-1 ATS versus opponents with a losing record.
The Bruins nipped the Huskies, 24-23, last year but failed to cover as 5 ½-point home favorites. The combined 47 points dipped ‘under’ the 51 ½-point total. There were five lead changes with the Bruins scoring last on an early fourth-quarter field goal.
UCLA is 10-3 ATS during the past 13 meetings, including covering five of the last six in Washington. The ‘under’ has cashed in four of the past five games in the series.
The ‘under’ has cashed in nine of the Bruins’ last 10 games in November. The Bruins are 20-6-1 to the ‘under’ in their last 27 Pac-10 games. The ‘under’ is 13-5 the past 18 times UCLA has been an underdog.
The ‘over’ has cashed in six of Washington’s past eight games.
There is a 70 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the high 30s with five mph winds.
Tips and Trends
UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies
BRUINS: UCLA was blown out in each of their past 2 conference road games, so they are anxious to prove to themselves that they are capable of a big road win. The Bruins are 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS overall this season. The Bruins have won each of the past 3 seasons against the Huskies. UCLA is 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this year. UCLA is just 2-4 ATS as a single digit underdog this year. The Bruins are still hopeful of qualifying for a bowl game, so they will be playing with maximum effort tonight. RB Johnathan Franklin is the focal point of an offense that moves the ball on the ground. Franklin has rushed for nearly 900 YDS this season, including 6 TD's. UCLA rushes for 195 YPG this season, 27th best in the nation. If the Bruins can play defense like they did against Oregon St, a bowl berth isn't out of the question this year. The Bruins are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog up to a field goal. The Bruins are 11-28-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. UCLA is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on fieldturf. The Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games. UCLA is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
Bruins are 1-4 ATS last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 7-2 last 9 games following a bye week.
Key Injuries - QB Kevin Prince (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 20
HUSKIES: (-2, O/U 52.5) There might not be a more frustrating team in the nation than the Washington Huskies. Many experts felt this was a Top 25 team, but we've since learned that couldn't be further from the case. The Huskies are 3-6 SU and 2-6-1 ATS overall this year. Washington has even struggled at home this year, going 2-3 SU. QB Jake Locker was widely considered to be the best player in the nation this year, but he too has struggled. Locker has thrown for 1,675 YDS and 14 TD's against 6 INT's this season. Locker is directing an offense that is only averaging 21.1 PPG, 24th worst in the country. Defensively, the Huskies have given up at least 40 PTS to each of their past 3 opponents. Washington is allowing 36.2 PPG this year, 11th worst in the nation. The Huskies are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss. Washington is 7-18-2 ATS against a team with a losing record. The Huskies are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games played in November. Washington is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. The Huskies are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on fieldturf.
Huskies are 4-21-2 ATS last 27 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - QB Jake Locker (ribs) is probable.
Projected Score: 31 (SIDE of the Day)
UCLA at Washington
By Christian Alexander
Once you get to this point in the season, games start to take on additional meaning as teams try to reach that magical six-win plateau which makes them bowl eligible. This Thursdays matchup is a perfect example of two teams playing with the added incentive of knowing bowl eligibility is within reach if they can secure wins.
As it stands right now, bowl eligible Pac-10 teams are pretty scarce with just Oregon, Stanford and Arizona having qualified. That said, four others, including UCLA and Washington who will play in Seattle this Thursday night, could still find their way to at least six wins.
Of those two, UCLA has the inside track needing two victories among its final three -- at Washington, at Arizona State and USC. Considering that the Huskies are easily the weakest team in that group, you can be sure the Bruins feel they must win this to have a realistic chance. Washington has a tougher road to get bowl eligible as they currently stand 3-6 and need to sweep their final three games to get to the postseason.
The bowl eligibility issue certainly isn’t the only subplot to this game however. It’s senior night at Husky Stadium and Washington will honor 17 seniors total including a certain local QB from Ferndale High School who came to UW to rescue the program.
Of course, it hasn’t exactly worked out that way for Jake Locker but there is no doubt he leaves the school as one of the most popular players in the program’s history. Locker, who began the year on the Heisman short list, has had an up and down senior year. The Washington QB suffered a broken rib on October 30 in a 41-0 rout at the hands of Stanford. That injury caused him to miss the following two weeks, including another loss – this time to Oregon.
However, the senior has returned to practice this week and after Tuesday's session, was cleared by team doctors to play Thursday night. Washington coach Steve Sarkisian has to hope senior night brings out the best of Locker because his program is currently in the midst of a rough skid. The Huskies have lost three of its last four home games, including woodshed beatings by Nebraska and Stanford, two of the worst home losses in school history. In their last three games, the Washington offense has scored 14, zero and 16 points and there is no doubt with the way the Huskies play defense that it will take at least 20 points to win this game.
In addition to senior night it’s also a homecoming of sorts. UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel will be making his second trip back to Husky Stadium since he was the head coach of the Washington program from 1999-2002. As many reading here will remember, Neuheisel was fired in the summer of 2003 for lying about his participation in a college basketball pool. It’s been tough times for the Washington program from that point on as the Huskies haven’t had a winning season or gone bowling since.
For the 2010 season, Neuheisel decided to reinvent the UCLA offense. The coach implemented the pistol offense which has had some success in the college ranks, most notably at Nevada. The results haven’t quite been there yet for the Bruins as the passing game only averages 120.8 yards per game. Only Air Force, Navy, Georgia Tech and Army – all ground-based offenses – have worse passing games.
That said, the UCLA rushing game is making strides. The Bruins average just under 195 yards rushing per game, which is good for fourth in the Pac-10. RB Johnathan Franklin, just a sophomore, has 892 yards and six touchdowns and has to be salivating at the opportunity to face a Washington defense that ranks last in the conference and 118th in the nation in run defense at 219.6 per outing.
Recent history definitely favors the visitors from Los Angeles. Not only does UCLA lead Washington 37-30-2 all-time but the Bruins have won 11 of the past 13 and three in a row, including a 27-7 victory in Seattle in 2008 and a 24-23 win last year.
To honor the seniors and in an effort to try to put a stop to UCLA’s recent dominance, the Thursday night game with have a "black out" theme at Husky Stadium and Washington is expected to wear black pants and jerseys for the first time in school history.
Mirroring their actual records, Washington is just 3-6 against the spread while UCLA is 4-5 ATS.
VegasInsider.com
Thursday's Games
Air Force won seven of last eight games vs UNLV, but split last couple visits here, with two games decided by total of four points. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in Falcons' last five visits here. Underdogs are 7-2 vs spread in Air Force games this year; Falcons are 1-5 as favorite, 1-2 on road (2-3 SU on road, wins by 6-20 points). UNLV lost five of last six games, but they're 3-1 as home dog, with home losses by 20-18-42 pts. MWC home underdogs are 7-5-1 vs spread this season.
Rick Neuheisel returns to Seattle with his UCLA Bruins, who are 11-2 in last 13 games vs Washington; dogs covered three of their last four visits to Seattle. Pac-10 home favorites of less than 6 points are 3-4 vs spread. Bruins are 1-3 on road this year, losing last two road games by combined score of 95-20. Washington is expected to get QB Locker back; they've lost last three games by combined score of 138-30, after upset of Oregon State. Six of last eight Washington games went over the total.