NCAAF News and Notes Thursday 12/31

NAVY (9 - 4) vs. MISSOURI (8 - 4)

Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 109-79 ATS (+22.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 109-79 ATS (+22.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 71-44 ATS (+22.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NAVY is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
NAVY is 57-27 ATS (+27.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
MISSOURI is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

AIR FORCE (7 - 5) vs. HOUSTON (10 - 3)

Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 53-76 ATS (-30.6 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
AIR FORCE is 16-40 ATS (-28.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
AIR FORCE is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

STANFORD (8 - 4) vs. OKLAHOMA (7 - 5)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

IOWA ST (6 - 6) vs. MINNESOTA (6 - 6)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

TENNESSEE (7 - 5) vs. VIRGINIA TECH (9 - 3)

Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

AIR FORCE vs. HOUSTON
Air Force is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Air Force is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Houston is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Houston is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games

STANFORD vs. OKLAHOMA
Stanford is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Stanford's last 7 games
Oklahoma is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Oklahoma is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

NAVY vs. MISSOURI
Navy is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Navy is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Missouri is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Missouri is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

IOWA STATE vs. MINNESOTA
Iowa State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Iowa State is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

TENNESSEE vs. VIRGINIA TECH
Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Virginia Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Virginia Tech is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

Navy vs. Missouri

Navy
n/a
n/a

Missouri
1-5 ATS off SU win
5-1 Over off SU win/ATS loss

Air Force vs. Houston

Air Force
3-23 ATS off DD conference loss
16-40 ATS off conference loss

Houston
6-0 Under off bye week
6-0 Under off conference loss

Stanford vs. Oklahoma

Stanford
6-0 Under on neutral field
6-0 Under off BB ATS losses

Oklahoma
9-2 Under this season
10-1 Under in December

Iowa State vs. Minnesota

Iowa State
7-1 Under on grass
5-1 Under off ATS win

Minnesota
1-6 ATS after being shutout
1-4 ATS as neutral field favorite

Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech

Tennessee
1-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
22-15 Under playing with 2 weeks or more of rest

Virginia Tech
32-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
8-0 Under on Thursdays

Texas Trio Tip Sheet
By Judd Hall

New Year’s Eve is loaded with five games on the slate for our gambling pleasure. The first three of those contests take place in Texas, where happy hour is the time when you buy your guns for half price. Let’s focus on those early showdowns.

Air Force vs. Houston

Rematches aren’t something that you expect to see during the postseason. Yet that is what’s on tap to start Thursday’s festivities when the Falcons take on Houston (10-3 straight up, 7-4-1 against the spread) from Fort Worth in the Armed Forces Bowl on ESPN at 12:00 p.m. EST.

The Cougars thought they were up for bigger and better things after opening the season with wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. But reality dealt Houston fans a gut punch when they lost the Conference USA championship to the Pirates to finish up the regular season.

Despite the downer they’re coming off of, Houston still has one of the scariest offenses in all of college football. Case Keenum has guided them to the nation’s best passing attack, averaging 450.0 yards per game through the air. Plus, they are seventh in pass efficiency with a rating of 159.6.

The Cougs aren’t exactly one-trick ponies though as they can run at a decent clip as well. Bryce Beall and Charles Sims have combined for 1,301 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. That’s great production from guys that are a sophomore and a freshman.

Keenum will need to show he was worth the Sammy Baugh Award when he goes up against the Air Force’s (7-5 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) pass defense. The Falcons are the best against the pass in the country by giving up 148.7 YPG. However, the Air Force gave up an average of 247.3 YPG through the air to the Mountain West’s Big 3 (TCU, Utah and BYU).

Where Houston advances the ball through the skies, the Falcons move the sticks on the dirt. AFA has the third best rushing attack in the nation with 273.6 YPG. This type of offense will help keep Keenum and company because they can eat up the clock. Given the fact that the Air Force is 19th in possession (31:44 per game), they have a legit reason for optimism.

The Cougars do have a reason to worry here as they’re surrendering 213.1 YPG on the ground, which places them 111th in the nation.

Most sportsbooks have posted the Cougs as 4 ½-point favorites with the total coming in at 63. The Air Force are an attractive wager for the outright win with a plus-165 return (risk $100 to win $165).

This year has not been kind for the Falcons as underdogs, going 0-5 SU and 2-2-1 ATS in 2009. If you look back over the last five seasons, AFA is 11-23 SU and 18-15-1 ATS.

Houston has done well as a fave this year with a 6-3 SU record, but just 4-4-1 ATS. When the Cougars were favored by seven-points or less, however, they posted a paltry 2-2 SU and 0-3-1 ATS mark. And they are 5-8 SU and 2-10-1 ATS over the past two seasons.

Air Force Academy has enjoyed success against Conference USA since 1996, as evidenced by a 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS record. The Cougars are 2-4 SU and ATS against Mountain West foes.

These two teams met in this very bowl game with Houston winning as a four-point “chalk,” 34-28. We shouldn’t be surprised by the favorite coming through for bettors; they’ve gone 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five installments of this clash of the titans.

Stanford vs. Oklahoma

If you were looking to watch a game that could pit backup quarterback against backup quarterback, then the Sun Bowl is right up your alley. El Paso, Texas is the battleground for the Cardinal to battle Oklahoma (7-5 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) on CBS at 2:00 p.m. EST.

Stanford (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) didn’t get very much publicity at the start of the season, but we all know that it’s more important to finish strong. The Cardinal closed out the campaign with a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS record, with wins over Oregon and Southern California – both victories saw Jim Harbaugh’s crew put up at least 50 points.

The Cardinal were able to light up the scoreboard thanks to the services of Toby Gerhart. All this senior rusher did was accumulate 867 yards and 14 touchdowns in his last five starts. Gerhart has been vital to Stanford’s offense as he accounts for 36 percent of the 5,297 yards they’ve gained for the season.

This will no doubt be Gerhart’s toughest test of the season in the Sooners’ stopping unit. Oklahoma boasts the seventh-best defense against the run, allowing a mere 88.6 YPG. And it’s anchored by All-American defensive tackle Gerald McCoy.

The running game for Stanford is taking a role of bigger importance in this contest due to some questions at quarterback. Andrew Luck has been one of the better signal callers in the Pac-10, but will most likely be sidelined after having surgery on the index finger on his throwing hand. Tavita Pritchard will be under center for this game, completing two of his three passes this year. Of course, Pritchard also guided the Cardinal to a 24-23 win over Southern California as 39-point road pups in 2007.

Oklahoma knows about running with a backup quarterback. Sam Bradford was knocked out of the opener against BYU, then again when playing Texas on Oct. 17. That’s given redshirt freshman Landry Jones a crash course in running this offense.

Jones has performed well this year with 58 percent of his passes for 2,780 yards and 23 scores with 13 interceptions. Those numbers are misleading as he has connected on 55 percent of his passes for 1,247 yards with five scores to nine picks in six games on the road or neutral settings. Incidentally, the Sooners are 1-5 in those six contests.

Perhaps the Sooners won’t need to worry about Jones here with DeMarco Murray lining up in the backfield for his first bowl game appearance. Murray has only gained seven touchdowns with 678 rushing yards, but he’s a serious threat on special teams.

The sportsbooks have made Oklahoma a heavy 10-point favorite with the total standing pat at 55 ½. Gamblers can have a great payday by taking the Cardinal to pull the upset here for a return of plus-300 (risk $100 to win $300).

Bettors might think that the Sooners are worth playing here to cover the number, but the fact is they’re only 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS as favorites in 2009. In road tilts, however, Oklahoma is 1-4-1 ATS.

Stanford has gone just 2-2 SU and ATS for the season as an underdog. But it is important to note that they have won and covered the last two of those matches against the Ducks and Trojans.

Oklahoma has been one of the more reliable fades in bowl games for the betting public. They’ve have gone just 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six postseason appearances.

The Sooners have also been so-so against the Pac-10 over the years, posting a 6-5 SU and 5-4-2 ATS record.

Navy vs. Missouri

We close out the early tests with another battle of ground dominance taking on a squad that flies the friendly skies. That’s what we have on tap when Navy (9-4 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) matches up with Missouri (8-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) in the Texas Bowl at 3:30 p.m. EST on ESPN.

When you think about the Midshipmen, the first thing that should come to mind is running. They know how to run the triple option well as they’re third in the country with 272.5 rushing YPG. Junior quarterback Ricky Dobbs is running the offense for Navy these days. All he’s done is gain 1,037 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns, which broke the FBS record for rushing scores in a season. Somewhere Tim Tebow is crying.

Dobbs and the Middies will have a tough road to go this Thursday when they face off with Mizzou. Some people might not realize it, but the Tigers are 12th against the run in yielding just 96.4 YPG on the ground in 2009. Missouri is 109th against the pass (261.6 YPG), but that’s to be expected when you play teams with aerial assaults like the Longhorns and Cowboys in the Big XII.

Missouri comes into this game with a little bit of a chip on its shoulder after getting snubbed by the Insight Bowl and Independence Bowl for the Cyclones and Aggies respectively. Regardless of those political issues, Gary Pinkel’s club has the offense to prove themselves once again.

The Tigers came into this season without Chase Daniel under center, but Blaine Gabbert has shown that he’s up to filling those shoes. Gabbert has connected on 58 percent of his throws for 3,302 yards for 23 touchdowns to just seven picks. He closed out the season on a high note with 938 yards and six scores.

There is reason for optimism for Mizzou here as they take on a defense that gave up 207.1 YPG through the air to rank 48th nationally. However, Navy wound up getting torn apart for 366 passing yards by the Warriors in Honolulu in the penultimate game of the regular season.

The oddsmakers have made the Tigers 6 ½-point favorites with a total of 52 ½ for this contest. You can take the Midshipmen to get the win on the money line for a return of plus-220 (risk $100 to win $220).

Before you lay your money on Mizzou, keep in mind that they finished the year 4-4 SU, but just 2-6 ATS. Navy isn’t much better for backing on the spread right now, going 5-2 SU and 2-4 ATS to close out the 2009 campaign.

The Midshipmen have lost three straight bowl games, but covered the spread in two of them. Pinkel’s club, on the other hand, is 3-1 SU and ATS in their past four postseason contests.

Navy has been a profitable wager when posted as an underdog as they’re 13-17 SU, but 18-11-1 ATS over the last five seasons.

Mizzou has certainly had no problems winning as the “chalk,” as they’re 10-2 SU since Nov. 2008. Gamblers haven’t cared for them all that much since they’ve covered in just four of those 12 contests.

vegasinsider.com

Chick-Fil-A Bowl
By Brian Edwards

The Chick-Fil-A Bowl will once again feature the SEC up against the ACC on New Year’s Eve. Although this event is no longer called the Peach Bowl or played at Fulton Co. Stadium, it is still in Atlanta and now played at the Georgia Dome.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Virginia Tech (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) as a four-point favorite with a total of 48. As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had the Hokies as 5 ½-point ‘chalk’ with the total bumped up to 49. Gamblers can back the Volunteers to win outright for a plus-180 payout (risk $100 to win $180).

Frank Beamer’s team will end its season where it started, the Ga. Dome. Back in Week 1, Va. Tech took a lead into the fourth quarter against now-top-ranked Alabama, only to eventually lose a 34-24 decision as a six-point underdog.

Tennessee (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) finished the regular season by winning four of its last five games, including a 30-24 victory in overtime at Kentucky as a three-point road favorite in its last outing. The 54 combined points jumped ‘over’ the total thanks to the extra session.

Senior running back Montario Hardesty capped a brilliant performance by scoring on a 20-yard touchdown run in OT. Hardesty finished the day with 39 carries for 179 yards and three TDs. Jonathan Crompton threw for 220 yards and one TD, a 16-yard scoring strike to Luke Stocker.

Crompton came under heavy scrutiny early in the season, especially after a 19-15 home loss to UCLA when he threw three interceptions. However, the senior signal caller came on strong, posting a 12/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the last five games. For the year, Crompton has thrown for 2,565 yards with a 26/12 TD-INT ratio.

UT’s offense has opened up more recently, but this unit still has a run-first mentality with Hardesty and freshman phenom Bryce Brown. Hardesty rushed for 1,306 yards and 12 TD during the regular season, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Brown rushed for 460 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 4.6 YPC.

Like the Vols, Va. Tech’s offense is led by its ground attack. Redshirt freshman RB Ryan Williams enjoyed a breakout campaign, rushing for 1,538 yards and 19 TDs. Williams averaged an eye-popping 5.7 YPC.

He torched arch-rival Virginia with 183 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 24 carries, as the Hokies cruised to a 42-13 home win as 14-point road favorites. Behind Williams’ stellar play, they closed the regular season by winning four in a row both SU and ATS.

Tyrod Taylor assumed the starting QB role as a junior after splitting time with Sean Glennon his first two seasons in Blacksburg. Taylor completed 55.8-percent of his throws for 2,102 yards with a 13/4 TD-INT ratio. He also ran for 344 yards and four touchdowns.

These schools last met in the 1994 Gator Bowl with UT capturing a 45-23 win as a seven-point favorite.

The Hokies own a 0-2 spread record in a pair of single-digit ‘chalk’ spots this season. On the flip side, UT is 3-1 ATS in four games as an underdog.

The ‘over’ finished the regular season on a 4-1 run for the Vols, who saw the ‘over’ go 7-5 overall. The ‘under’ went 5-1 in the Hokies’ last six games, 7-5 overall.

ESPN will have the telecast at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

LVSC opened Minnesota as a 1 ½-point favorite against Iowa St. in the Insight Bowl at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe. (If curious, my only trip to this venue came in 1995. It was a nightmare! Tommy Frazier (is still running…) led Nebraska to a 62-24 spanking of my alma mater (Florida). Lawrence Phillips, who was recently sentenced to more than 30 years in prison, was a monster that night (on the field – far as I know). ) Anyway, back to the Phoenix area, where the Gophers are now listed as 2 ½-point favorites with a total of 48.

The ‘under’ is 8-3 overall for the Cyclones, 5-1 in their last six games.

Minnesota’s stud WR Eric Decker is “doubtful” against Iowa St.

After being heavily courted by Georgia to become its new defensive coordinator, Va. Tech’s Bud Foster signed a five-year extension to remain with the Hokies. Foster was also contacted by UF’s Urban Meyer and FSU’s Jimbo Fisher. The ‘Noles eventually hired Mark Stoops away from Arizona, while the Gators are still looking for their new d-coordinator.

Since the line was released for the Sugar Bowl, Florida was either a 10 1/2- or 11-point favorite leading up to this past Saturday’s stunning events. Since Meyer’s flip-flop, the Gators have been moved to 13-point ‘chalk,’ as bettors obviously feel like UF will now give a more determined effort.

vegasinsider.com

News and Notes: Armed Forces Bowl

Air Force Falcons vs. Houston Cougars (-5, 63)

If you think you have a case of déjà vu don’t be alarmed because this is a rematch of last year’s Armed Forces Bowl.

The Houston Cougars will look to snatch a second straight bowl win away from Air Force after defeating the Falcons 34-28 as 4-point favorites in Fort Worth last year.

A mild kickoff temperature of 42 degrees graces the northern sector of Texas but a 30 percent chance of rain could bring showers during the latter stages of the game.

Under center

Falcons quarterback Connor Dietz broke his hand against Utah and missed the last four weeks of the season. The team went 3-1 straight up and against the spread without him while averaging 33.8 ppg.

Sophomore Tim Jefferson replaced Dietz under center, but he got banged up against BYU in the season finale. Jefferson threw for 368 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 73 yards and a score in Air Force’s last three wins.

Dietz has been upgraded to probable for the game which means both signal-callers could see action on Thursday.

Matchups

Houston quarterback Case Keenum directed the top-ranked passing (450.0 ypg) and total offense (581.2 ypg) in the country this season. Keenum and his receiving corps will test their mettle against the Falcons’ No. 1 pass defense that yields less than 150 yards per outing.

Conversely, Air Force racks up points on the ground with the No. 3-ranked rushing offense at 273.6 ypg. The Cougars finished 111th in rush defense (213. ypg) and surrendered more than 200 yards rushing in six games.

Bowl history

Houston had lost eight straight bowl games before knocking off Air Force last year and is 2-3 ATS since 2000.

The Falcons have lost three consecutive bowls, going 1-2 ATS in that span. The last postseason win for Air Force came in a 37-34 win over Fresno State in 2000.

Both teams are 8-10-1 all-time in bowl games.

What Bettors Need To Know: Sun Bowl
By SCOTT COOLEY

Stanford Cardinal vs. Oklahoma Sooners (-10, 55.5)

The 76th annual Sun Bowl will pit the Pac-10’s Stanford Cardinal against the Big 12’s Oklahoma Sooners on Thursday in El Paso.

Line movement

Despite Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck being doubtful for the game, the Cardinal moved from opening underdogs of 11 points to a spread as low as 8. The total has dropped from an opener of 57 to a current number of 55.5.

The bowl road

Stanford was the hottest team in the country coming off consecutive wins over Oregon and USC and posting more than 50 points in each. But their Rose Bowl hopes withered when they lost to their arch-nemesis, Cal, in the Big Game at home.

Coach Jim Harbaugh put the Cardinal back on the college football map after compiling its best record (8-4) since the 2001 season. Harbaugh might have been the best play-caller in the country this year with Stanford ranking 10th in scoring offense (36.2 ppg) while being extremely balanced in its rushing (224.3 ypg) and passing (217.1 ypg) attacks.

After starting the season ranked No. 3 in the country, Oklahoma had a year to forget. It all started with quarterback Sam Bradford going down in the first game of the season – a 14-13 home loss to BYU.

Bradford returned for the Texas game only to reinjure his shoulder that would ultimately require season-ending surgery. As the losses accrued, the Sooners were left out of the final regular season rankings for the first time since 2005.

These teams haven’t met in 25 years, but Oklahoma leads the all-time series 3-1.

Motivation levels

This is Stanford’s first bowl game since 2001 and seniors on the team who endured losing season after losing season will be eager to end their careers on a high note.

The Cardinal haven’t won a bowl game since 1996 and Jim Harbaugh will want to prove his worth in his first career bowl appearance after signing a three-year extension a few weeks ago.

“We have told our football team this is the most important game on the schedule,” Harbaugh said. “This may be the first time some people see Stanford play.”

Bob Stoops is notorious for not winning the big games and not even caring about the little games. His Sooners have earned 11 consecutive bowl berths, but have lost three straight and five of their last six.

Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy announced that he will forego his senior season and enter the draft. There are a handful of other pro prospects on the team who might not want to jeopardize their NFL careers with an injury in a game that has little meaning.

No Luck

Sensational freshman quarterback Andrew Luck will not start the bowl game after breaking his finger in Stanford’s regular season finale – an injury that required surgery.

Luck has not been ruled out for the game and returned to practice this week, but senior Tavita Pritchard will start for the Cardinal under center.

"We'll figure out if there is a role [Luck] could play in the game," Harbaugh said. "He's not been ruled out, but we're not counting on it."

In the first start of his career in 2007, Pritchard led Stanford to a 24-23 win over USC as 41-point underdogs. He regressed the next season, guiding the team to a 5-7 record while tossing only 10 touchdowns against 13 interceptions.

Tunnel Workers Union

Toby Gerhart received all the accolades (and deserved the Heisman), but he would be the first to say he couldn’t have done it without his offensive line – a unit dubbed the Tunnel Workers Union because they are blue-collar men that go to work everyday and create holes.

One member of the TWU, center Chase Beeler, attended Oklahoma his freshman year. He played in five games, starting one, but transferred to Stanford the next season due to academic reasons.

Beeler, a native of Jenks, Okla., still keeps in touch with players on the team including defensive tackles McCoy and Adrian Taylor who he will go helmet-to-helmet with during the game.

"I am going to try and cull some of that knowledge from the depths of my memory," Beeler said. "Gerald (McCoy) and I worked against each other in practice during one-on-one drills."

Gerhart, who finished tops in the nation in rushing yards (1,736) and touchdowns (26), will test his mettle against Oklahoma’s 7th-ranked rush defense (88.6 ypg). Gerhart rushed for more than 100 yards in 10 of his 12 games this year and was held to less than 90 yards only once.

Trend-setter

Stanford is 5-2 straight up and 3-4 ATS in bowl games since 1980.

The under is 8-1 in Oklahoma’s last nine December contests.

The Sooners are 4-6 in their last 10 bowl games, going 3-7 ATS during that span.

What Bettors Need To Know: Insight Bowl
By RICKY DIMON

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (-2.5, 48.5)

Iowa State and Minnesota just barely squeaked into a bowl game as the No. 6 teams from the Big 12 and Big Ten, respectively.

The Cyclones (6-6, 7-4 ATS) limped in down the stretch by losing three of their last four and they are coming off a 34-24 setback against Missouri.

The Golden Gophers (6-6, 6-6 ATS) lost two of their last three and their lone win in that span was a 16-13 victory over San Diego State. They most recently fell to Iowa by a humbling 12-0 score.

Line movements

Minnesota opened as a 2.5-point favorite and that is where the line currently stands, having rarely wavered between 2 and 3 at most betting sites. The total of 48.5 opened at 48 and has experienced minimal fluctuation.

Infirmary report

Iowa State has been relatively injury-free since seeing a quartet of players go down in September and October. However, senior cornerback Kennard Banks (seventh on the squad with 55 tackles) was suspended earlier this month for violating team rules.

Senior receiver Eric Decker, who has five touchdowns and leads Minnesota in both catches and receiving yards despite playing just eight games, is still suffering from a foot injury and will almost certainly be out.

Something’s gotta give

Minnesota’s offense has simply been dismal this season. The Gophers rank last in the Big Ten in scoring and they are especially futile in the running department. They are averaging a mere 2.9 yards per carry.

At the same time, Iowa State’s defense has been generous. The Cyclones are second to last in the Big 12 in total defense and they are allowing 169.3 rushing yards per game, also second to last in the conference.

Gopher running backs Duane Bennett and Kevin Whaley have struggled to get anything going on the ground, but this could be their opportunity to turn the tide.

Common opponent

Minnesota’s recent 12-0 loss to Iowa came when the Hawkeyes were without starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi. The Gophers were able to handle Iowa’s short-handed offense and surrendered just 171 yards of total offense, including only 54 on the ground.

Iowa State hosted its in-state rival back on Sept. 12, and Stanzi tossed four touchdowns in a 35-3 Hawkeye victory. The Cyclones, who led 3-0 before giving up 35 unanswered points, managed to gain 190 yards on a stingy Iowa run defense, but they passed for just 113 yards and turned the ball over six times.

Happy to be there

With first-year head coach Paul Rhoads at the helm, the Cyclones are in a bowl game for the first time since the 2005 season, when they fell to TCU in the Houston Bowl.

“We are thrilled to death to be playing in a bowl game, to be practicing in December and have the opportunity to play,” Rhoads explained.

“It’s the greatest feeling to know that we are going to Arizona (Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe) to play a Big Ten team and we are very excited about that,” added quarterback Austen Arnaud.
The Gophers have played in two of the past three Insight Bowls (lost to Texas Tech in 2006 and to Kansas in 2008) and they are happy to be back.

“We’ve been here before,” noted head coach Tim Brewster. “We understand the routine. We’re here to win a football game and that is what’s most important.”

Trending topics

Iowa State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 against the Big Ten.

Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite and 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games as a favorite. The Golden Gophers are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.

The under is 5-1 in Iowa State’s last six games overall. The under is also 3-0-1 in ISU’s last four bowl games and 5-0 in the team’s last five against the Big Ten.

The over is 7-3 in Minnesota’s last 10 games overall and 10-3 in the Gophers’ last 13 non-conference contests. The over is also 4-1 in the team’s last five bowl games.

What Bettors Need To Know: Chick-fil-A Bowl
By PATRICK GARBIN

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (-6, 49.5)

In Atlanta’s Chick-fil-A Bowl, Tennessee and Virginia Tech will meet for only the eighth time ever and just the second since 1937. Although both the Volunteers and Hokies have respectable offenses, both teams’ defenses are amongst college football’s most admired.

Line movement

The line opened with Virginia Tech as a 4.5-point favorite but has since climbed to 6. The total opened at 50.5 but, with most bettors recognizing the teams’ revered defensive units, has since dropped a point.

Although the betting public likes the Hokies -6 by a slight margin over the Volunteers, Tennessee’s moneyline (+200) is being wagered more than eight times than that of Virginia Tech’s.

Significant injuries/suspensions

Only one meaningful player will miss the bowl for either teams—Virginia Tech’s Stephan Virgil. Virgil, a senior considered the Hokies’ best cornerback entering the season, was recently dismissed due to academics after an injury restricted his play for most of the year.

Either sophomore Cris Hill or freshman Jayron Hosley will replace Virgil.

Block that kick

Under Coach Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech has a long-established reputation for special teams play, especially blocking kicks. Although the Hokies have blocked just one kick this season (a punt vs. Miami), it was returned for a touchdown by Matt Reidy.

In addition, Virginia Tech’s Dyrell Roberts returned a kickoff for a touchdown against Alabama and Hosley returned a punt for a score against Marshall.

Tennessee has allowed six of its kicks (four FGs, one punt, one PAT) to get blocked and two kickoffs to be returned for touchdowns; the Volunteers have not blocked a kick or returned a kickoff or punt for a score.

Crompton’s comeback

Senior quarterback Jonathan Crompton was responsible for one of the greatest career turnarounds in Tennessee football history.

From the beginning of last year leading up to the Georgia game this season, against nine BCS-conference opponents, Crompton completed less than 51 percent of his passes, averaged less than 5.1 yards per attempt, and threw three touchdowns and eight interceptions. Beginning with the game against Bulldogs, Crompton has completed more than 61 percent of his passes and eight yards per attempt for 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions in seven games.

Although Virginia Tech has the sixth best pass efficiency defense in the nation, the Hokies have intercepted only 10 passes in 341 pass attempts by their opposition.

Whooh, Williams

When Virginia Tech’s Darren Evans tore his ACL in mid-August, Ryan Williams was unexpectedly forced into the starting lineup. The freshman running back has been quite a pleasant surprise, to say the least.

Williams’ 1,538 rushing yards and 20 total touchdowns are ACC records for a freshman; his yardage is also the fourth most in conference history.
“Special,” is a word Beamer uses to describe Williams. “When he gets the football, whooh.”
Although the Volunteers have held five of 12 opponents to less than 90 net rushing yards, they have allowed four to rush for 200 or more. In its last eight games, Tennessee has allowed five individual players to rush for 99 yards or more, including 282 by Ole Miss’ Dexter McCluster.

Key matchup

Tennessee safety Eric Berry, a junior and two-time All-American from the Atlanta area, is likely playing in his final game and will probably be used as a spy against versatile Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech’s quarterback.

Although he had a very successful season, Taylor struggled against Alabama, Nebraska, and North Carolina, three of the better defenses in the country, completing less than half of his passes and rushing for negative yardage in all three games.

Spearheaded by the hard-hitting Berry, Tennessee’s pass defense is on of the best in the nation, ranking eighth in the FBS in pass efficiency defense while allowing only five touchdown passes all season.

“[Eric] wants to focus on winning this game, playing extremely well, especially because it’s in Atlanta,” said Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin.

Trends

Since 1999, Virginia Tech is 98-8 SU when outrushing its opponent, including 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS this season.

Tennessee is just 17-19 SU against AP-ranked teams since 2002 (Virginia Tech enters the game ranked 12th), including 1-2 this season; however, the Volunteers are 3-0 ATS versus the ranked in 2009.

From 1984-1998, the average margin of victory in this bowl was only 3.3 points with none of the 15 games being decided by more than a touchdown. However, over the last 10 years, the margin has averaged 16.9 points with only one game being decided by less than six points.

Football Betting Galore
By Doug Upstone

New Years Eve means the first of 15 bowls over the next three days. This is no place for the droopy-eyed sports bettor, this where you go on the attack. This is not the time to drink too much or eat too much. Life is all about moderation. No you dont need to be a hermit, its not like the Peach Bowl is must see TV, rather enjoy the evening have laughs with friends and check your bets frequently however slick you have to be to pull it off. Preparation is the key is watching all these games over the 72 hours and I pity the fool who thinks hes superman and parties like its 1999 and is going to make power-nap work in the context of halftime without having practiced. Lines from Sportbet.com

Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force vs. Houston (-5, 63)
Amon Carter Stadium - Fort Worth
12:00E ESPN

Its dj vu all over again for Air Force and Houston, opponents for a second straight year in this bowl. The Cougars won last year, 34-28, covering the number on a late field goal. At 10-3 SU and 8-4 ATS, the Cougars are looking to culminate its best season since winning 11 games in 1979. Houston is averaging 43.9 points per game and a nations-best 581.1 yards per game on offense. Air Force was 7-5 and 6-4-1 ATS with just a 1-5 record vs. bowl teams. The Falcons rushed for 273.6 YPG this season, fourth nationally, and will look to take advantage of a Cougars defense that allowed 5.0 yards per rush.

Why watch and wager- Houstons a good play if one believes they can dictate tempo. The Cougars will want to play fast with Case Keenum hitting receivers all over the field, which presumably leads to touchdowns. Houston has covered their last five games off a loss and the defense will have to be disciplined (unlikely) to stop Air Force attack. The Cougs are only 1-8 ATS in road games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Air Force is a good play if you believe they impose their will on Houston. The Falcons like the other military schools play hard for 60 minutes, which is not always the case for Houston. If Air Force establishes running game, the undisciplined Houston defense can be gashed over and over and if they can keep continual pressure on Keenum to frustrate the Cougars, those points look inviting, considering they are 19-9 ATS after rushing for 200 or more yards.

Sun Bowl
Stanford vs. Oklahoma (-10, 55)
Sun Bowl Stadium - El Paso
2:00E CBS

El Paso natives are looking for a better showing than the 3-0 snore-fest a year ago. This bowl has typically been an exciting one, dominated by underdogs, 11-1-1 ATS prior to last year. The Pac-10 has won five straight games (3-2 ATS). All of this could bode well for Stanford, which comes in as a heavy underdog to Sooners without starting quarterback Andrew Luck. The Cardinal were 8-4 (7-5 ATS) this season to earn their first bowl bid since 2001. Oklahoma was 7-5 (4-7-1 ATS) and mostly inconsistent team. The Sooners have lost five of their last six bowl games both SU and ATS, with the one win coming in non-BCS 05 Holiday Bowl.

Why watch and wager- This matchup could be called the Backup Bowl as neither will have their original signal caller, which will dramatically impact the outcome. Tavita Pritchard is in charge of completing passes for Stanford so running back Toby Gerhart doesnt have face what would look like two dozen red helmets in the box. Under coach Jim Harbaugh the Cardinal is 7-0 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game over the last two seasons. Though the Sooners defense wasnt as strong as expected, they had their moments especially against teams that like to run the ball. In November encounters, they stuffed both Texas A&M (59 yards) and Oklahoma State (62 yards) and are wholly capable of doing the same against Stanford, without the threat of the pass. Boomer Sooners bowl record under Bob Stoops has been lousy of late, however Oklahoma is 11-4 ATS after allowing 175 or less yards in previous game.

Texas Bowl
Missouri vs. Navy (+6.5, 52)
Reliant Stadium - Houston
3:30E ESPN

Navy (9-4, 5-6-1 ATS) has always been a very competitive team in bowl games (7-3 ATS), but comes into this years Texas Bowl looking to snap a three-game postseason losing streak. The Midshipmen have proven a predictable team when it comes to bowl games lately, going 4-1 ATS and 5-0 Over the total. Missouri provides the opposition, which rallied to an 8-4 (4-7 ATS) finish by winning four of its final five games, topping the 400-yard mark each time. The Tigers are a heavy favorite, which could prove important since the chalk is 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the history of this game, including a 3-0-1 ATS record with lines of 6.5 points or more.

Why watch and wager- Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert should be able to pick out receiver Danario Alexander among others, since Navy generates little pass rush and is in the bottom 20 percent in forcing negative plays. If Gabbert finds open receivers, that makes RB Derrick Washington that much more dangerous opening up all kinds of possibilities for squad that is 13-3 as a 3.5 to 10-point favorite. Navy covers the number by establishing fullback Vince Murray. If the Middies puncture the center of Tigers defense, that opens up quarterback Ricky Dobbs on the edges. Dobbs is the best passer Navy has had in decades, and immensely effective in play-action off the fullback dive for long gains. The Midshipmen are remarkable 71-44 ATS as underdogs the last 17 seasons.

Insight Bowl
Minnesota vs. Iowa State (+2.5, 48.5)
Sun Devil Stadium - Tempe
6:00E NFL Network

Minnesota (5-6-1 ATS) is one of a handful of teams playing in the same bowl game that it did a year ago. The Golden Gophers have become quite familiar with the Phoenix area, making third trip to Tempe in last four years. Unfortunately, they lost two previous contests. This will be the first time Minnesota is favored, despite 6-6 record in the regular season. Iowa State (7-4 ATS) shares that same record and is in a bowl for the first time since 2005. The Cyclones are looking to extend a three-game winning streak by the Big 12 in this bowl, one that has been high scoring and 13-3-1 Over since 1992. The underdog is 8-4 ATS the last dozen years.

Why watch and wager- The records of these two schools suggest just another meaningless bowl game, but thats hardly what the coaches are thinking. Iowa State has posted win totals of 4, 3 and 2 the last few years, for a total of nine, thus a seven win season with a bowl win for first year coach Paul Rhoads would be an amazing accomplishment. Throw out a 16-13 victory over South Dakota State on Nov.14 and Minnesota is 0-9 (4-5 ATS) playing big boy football once the calendar flips to November the last three years. QB Adam Weber has to keep his wits about him for Minnesota. Yes, he taken a pounding and was gun-shy the last few games and if doesnt correct this feeling, Golden Gophers drop to 0-5 ATS as bowl favorites. The Cyclones are not going to generate a lot of points, which means the defense has to step up and put the Gophers in a hole. Though mostly against the Hawkeyes, Iowa State is 10-2 ATS vs. the Big Ten.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee (+5.5, 49.5)
Georgia Dome - Atlanta
7:30E ESPN

The Volunteers and Hokies will send off 2009 in the last college football game of the calendar year. Virginia Tech (7-5 ATS) is favored after finishing 9-3, winning its last four games both SU and ATS, conceding just 8.8 PPG. The Hokies havent been the best bowl team of late, going just 3-5 SU and ATS since 2001. Tennessee (7-5 SU & ATS) shares that same bowl record in its eight games and has gone Under the total in five straight bowl battles, including twice in the old Peach Bowl. The Vols are looking to extend a streak of four straight upset wins by SEC teams in this bowl series.

Why watch and wager - For each of these teams, the goal is the same its just the method in which they get there is the difference. New coach Lane Kiffin was able to harness Jonathan Crompton from a mistake-prone quarterback into one that make better decisions and cut down interceptions. This was helped by Montario Hardesty who used his senior season to blossom and Crompton had deception on his side with a running game. In spite of alarming defensive injuries, the Vols held together under DC Monte Kiffin and are is 20-8 ATS away from Knoxville playing a team with 75 percent or better win percentage. This is important game for the stature of the ACC and Virginia Tech. The conference has started 1-3 SU as a bowler and Virginia Tech is in search of fifth straight 10-win season. Did you know Virginia Techs Ryan Williams actually gained more yards rushing and had more touchdowns the Heisman winner Mark Ingram? Neither did anyone else and if he can break the century mark against the Vols, the Hokies should be good. The biggest concern Frank Beamer is lack if pass rush, exposing mediocre secondary. The Hokies are 32-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

Air Force (7-5, 6-5 ATS) vs. Houston (10-3, 8-4 ATS)

The Cougars make the short road trip north to Amon G. Carter Stadium on the TCU campus to face Air Force for the third time since the beginning of the 2008 season and the second straight year in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Houston got out of the gate with a 3-0 SU start (2-0 ATS) this year to break into the Top 25, including a shocking 45-35 win at Oklahoma State as a 15½-point underdog. The Cougars were then dealt a 58-41 upset loss laying 14½ points at Texas-El Paso, but they entered the Conference USA championship game against East Carolina on a 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) tear. In the title game, played on East Carolina’s home field, Houston came up short 38-32 as a one-point road chalk.

Air Force was 3-3 SU (2-3 ATS) through its first six games, then went on a 4-1 SU and ATS run to get bowl-eligible out of the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons finished the year with a 38-21 loss at Brigham Young as an eight-point underdog, halting a 4-0 ATS run, but they still earned the opportunity for a bowl rematch with Houston.

Last year, Air Force grabbed a 31-28 regular-season victory as a 2½-point pup in a game that was moved from Houston to Dallas due to Hurricane Ike. The Cougars avenged that loss with a 34-28 victory in the Armed Forces Bowl as a four-point chalk, giving the SU winner a 2-0 ATS mark in those two contests.

Houston is in the postseason for the fifth straight year, with last season’s Armed Forces win halting an 0-3 SU and ATS bowl skid. The Cougars haven’t won consecutive postseason contests since 1979-80. Meanwhile, Air Force is in its third straight bowl game under coach Troy Calhoun, looking to halt an 0-2 SU and ATS purge.

Houston has the No. 1 total offense in the nation at 581.1 ypg, the No. 1 passing attack at a stunning 449.8 ypg and the No. 2 scoring offense at 43.9 ppg. QB Case Keenum has completed 71 percent of his passes for a whopping 5,447 passing yards, with 43 TDs against just nine INTs. WR James Cleveland (101 catches, 1,182 yards, 14 TDs) leads a group of five Cougars with at least 500 receiving yards. On the downside, the Cougars defense was a weak link all year, giving up 442.7 ypg (108th) and 28.8 ppg.

Air Force, not surprisingly, relies on its running attack, which is third in the country at 273.6 ypg for an offense that totals 355.9 ypg and 28.2 ppg. RBs Jared Tew (797 yards, 7 TDs) and Asher Clark (736 yards, 5 TDs) combined for 1,533 rushing yards, and five other Falcons runners have at least 200 yards apiece. Air Force is also superb on the other side of the ball, sporting the nation’s No. 1 pass defense (148.7 ypg), No. 10 total defense (284.8 ypg) and No. 9 scoring defense (15.3 ppg).

The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral-site games, but they are on ATS runs of 9-4 overall, 5-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 in non-conference action and 4-1 on Thursday. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-7 against winning teams and 2-6 from the underdog role.

Houston is on “over” tears of 5-1 overall (all as a favorite), 9-2 against winning teams and 5-2 in December, and the over for Air Force is on rolls of 4-0 overall and 6-2 in December. However, the under for the Cougars is on stretches of 4-0 following a SU loss and 4-1 in non-conference games, and the under for the Falcons is on streaks of 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 in non-conference play and 5-1 with Air Force a pup.

Finally, the bowl game last year fell short of the posted price (66), while the regular-season matchup between these two went over the total (51½).

ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON

(19) Stanford (8-4, 7-5 ATS) vs. Oklahoma (7-5, 5-6-1 ATS)

Stanford, back in a bowl game for the first time since the 2001 season, heads to Sun Bowl Stadium in West Texas to take on the Sooners, who are noticeably absent from a BCS bowl this year.

The Cardinal made a serious run at the Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl berth in a season that included a shocking 55-21 road beatdown of Southern Cal as a 10½-point underdog. However, the week after that stunning blowout, they lost at home to archrival California 34-28 as a seven-point favorite, halting their conference title and BCS bowl hopes. Stanford bounced back immediately to drop Notre Dame 45-38 in overtime as a 10-point home chalk in the season finale to finish the regular season on a 4-1 SU run (3-2 ATS).

Oklahoma, which has been in a BCS bowl eight of the past nine years out of the Big 12, had to go almost the entire season without Heisman Trophy-winning QB Sam Bradford and suffered a significant drop-off. The Sooners lost the season opener to Brigham Young 14-13 as a whopping 22½-point favorite, with Bradford injuring his shoulder in the first half. He was out five weeks and played in only two more games before reinjuring the shoulder in the first quarter of a 16-13 loss to Texas and calling it a year.

Oklahoma’s longest win streak of the season was just two games (twice), and it finished the season by alternating SU wins and losses over its last five games (2-3 ATS), though the Sooners capped it with a 27-0 home rout of rival and 12th-ranked Oklahoma State as an eight-point chalk.

These teams haven’t met since 1984 and have squared off just four times overall. Oklahoma is 3-1 SU in those contests, and Stanford is 3-1 ATS.

Stanford last played in the postseason in the Seattle Bowl in 2001, losing 24-16 as a six-point chalk against Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, Oklahoma played for the national championship last year, losing to Florida 24-14 as a 4½-point ‘dog in the BCS title game, its third consecutive SU and ATS postseason setback (a school record). The Sooners are in a bowl for a school-record 11th straight year, all under coach Bob Stoops, but they’ve gone just 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS in the previous 10, including a current 1-5 SU and ATS dive in which all five losses were by at least a touchdown.

The Cardinal are putting up 441.1 ypg this year (13th), including a running game that averages 224.3 ypg (11th). Star RB Toby Gerhart, who finished second in the Heisman voting, led the way by rushing for 1,722 yards and a whopping 26 TDs for a squad that averaged 36.2 ppg (10th). That said, Stanford gave up its share of yards and points, allowing 26.2 ppg and 396.5 ypg.

Stanford likely will be without injured starting QB Andrew Luck, who passed for 2,575 yards with a solid 13-5 TD-to-INT ratio. Former starter Tavita Pritchard would start in Luck’s place.

The Sooners averaged 419.4 ypg (278.5 passing, 140.9 rushing), and with Bradford hurt the offense was mostly in the hands of redshirt freshman QB Landry Jones (2,780 passing yards, 23 TDs, 13 INTs). Oklahoma made a much bigger mark defensively, rating seventh in the nation in three categories: total yards allowed (273.5 ypg), rushing yards allowed (88.6) and points allowed (13.7). In fact, the Sooners held nine opponents to 16 points or less.

The Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference contests, but they are on ATS upswings of 4-1 in December and 5-2 following a pointspread loss. Oklahoma is on ATS skids of 1-5 as a bowl chalk, 1-4-1 at neutral sites and 0-4-1 following a SU win, though the Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last five December outings and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four against the Pac-10.

The over for Stanford is on rolls of 4-0 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 4-0 against winning teams and 6-1 with the Cardinal a pup. On the flip side, the under for Oklahoma is on sprees of 11-2 overall, 5-0 outside the Big 12, 8-1 in December, 9-2 with the Sooners favored, 9-2 against winning teams and 7-3 in the postseason.

ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD

Navy (9-4, 6-6 ATS) vs. Missouri (8-4, 4-7 ATS)

Missouri aims to finish the season on a four-game winning streak when it travels to the Lone Star State to face Navy at Reliant Stadium.

The Tigers won their first four games of the season (3-1 ATS), then went on a 1-4 SU and ATS skid that killed their Big 12 North title chances. However, they finished strong by winning their last three games (1-2 ATS in lined action), including a 41-39 victory over archrival Kansas as a 3½-point road chalk on Nov. 28 in the regular-season finale. Missouri put up 32 points or more in each of its last five games.

Navy won six of its first eight games (5-3 ATS), then went a more modest 3-2 SU over its last five, failing to cash in three of its last four regular-season lined contests. The Midshipmen finished with a 17-3 victory against archrival Army on Dec. 12, falling just short of covering as an overwhelming 14½-point chalk on neutral turf at Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field.

These teams have met just three times, with Missouri winning all three games, but the last of those clashes came in the 1960 Orange Bowl, won by the Tigers 21-14.

Missouri returns to Texas for the second straight postseason, after beating Northwestern 30-23 in overtime in last year’s Alamo Bowl. The Tigers fell short as a hefty 14-point chalk in that contest, marking the first time in their last four bowl appearances that they failed to cash (3-1 SU and ATS). Navy is going bowling for the seventh straight year and is currently on a 4-1 postseason ATS run (2-3 SU), with the lone pointspread setback coming in last year’s 29-19 loss to Wake Forest as a three-point pup in the Eagle Bank Bowl.

Missouri averaged 30.3 points and 417.2 yards per game this season, leaning heavily on sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert, who piled up 3,302 passing yards for an offense that ranked 13th nationally in passing (285 ypg). Gabbert had 23 TDS and just seven INTs, and wideout Danario Alexander (1,644 yards, 13 TDs, 15.4 ypc) was the chief target. Defensively, Mizzou allowed 24.6 points and 358 total yards per contest, and the Tigers ranked 12th in rushing defense (96.4 ypg).

Navy sported the nation’s fourth-best rushing attack, at a whopping 272.5 ypg for an offense that averaged 27.5 points and 343.8 total yards per outing. QB Ricky Dobbs was the lynchpin, rushing for 1,045 yards and an eye-popping 24 TDs, and passing for another 901 yards and five TDs. The Middies yielded just 19.9 ppg (20th in the nation) and 333.6 total ypg.

Mizzou is on ATS surges of 9-3 outside the Big 12 and 12-3 laying 3½ to 10 points, but it also carries negative ATS streaks of 2-6 overall, 1-8 against winning teams, 1-4 at neutral sites and 2-7 in December. The Midshipmen are on pointspread rolls of 4-0 in Thursday contests and 8-3 in December, but they finished the regular season in a 2-4 ATS funk and are 1-3 ATS in their last four games when following a SU win.

The under is on streaks of 4-0 overall for Navy, 5-0 in non-conference play for Missouri and 6-1 for Mizzou against winning teams. However, the over for the Tigers is on rolls of 4-1 overall (all as a chalk) and 5-2 at neutral sites, and the Middies are on “over” upticks of 5-0 in bowl season, 4-0 as a bowl pup and 6-1 as a neutral-field ‘dog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Iowa State (6-6, 7-4 ATS) vs. Minnesota (6-6, 5-6 ATS)

Two teams muddling along with a .500 record take the field at Sun Devil Stadium when Iowa State faces the Gophers in a Big 12-Big Ten contest.

Iowa State made it to the postseason despite losing three of its last four games (2-2 ATS), including a 34-24 setback at Missouri in the Nov. 21 finale, though it covered as a hefty 15-point underdog. The Cyclones upended Nebraska 9-7 on the road Oct. 24 as a whopping 20½-point ‘dog for their signature win in an otherwise mediocre season, as the Huskers ultimately reached and nearly won the Big 12 title game.

Minnesota won its first two games of the year (1-1 ATS), then couldn’t put together back-to-back wins the rest of the season and finished on a 2-4 SU skid (2-3 ATS in lined action). The Gophers’ last game was also Nov. 21, a 12-0 loss at Iowa in which they narrowly cashed as a 12½-point pup to end the year on a 3-1 ATS upswing.

Iowa State and Minnesota, located just 215 miles apart, used to meet regularly in the early 1900s, but they’ve played just three times since 1989, with the Gophers going 3-0 SU and ATS. Most recently, Minnesota rolled 53-29 as a 9½-point home favorite in September 1997.

The Cyclones are in a bowl game for the first time since 2004, when they beat Miami (Ohio) 17-13 as a one-point chalk in the Independence Bowl, and this will be just the ninth postseason appearance overall for the program. One of those was in the 2000 Insight bowl, as Iowa State topped Pittsburgh 37-29 as a three-point underdog.

The Gophers are in the Insight Bowl for the third time in four years. They lost 44-41 in overtime to Texas Tech in 2006 as an eight-point ‘dog, and got bounced 42-21 last year by Kansas State catching 7½ points. Minnesota is in a bowl game for the ninth time in 11 years.

Iowa State’s offense averaged 359.4 ypg, with an almost equal pass-run balance (182.2 passing ypg, 177.2 rushing ypg), as RB Alexander Robinson netted 1,056 yards and five TDs on the ground. But the Cyclones averaged just 21.1 ppg (102nd). Defensively, Iowa State allowed 22.6 ppg despite yielding a whopping 414.3 ypg (169.3 rushing ypg).

Minnesota gained just 295.8 ypg this year (113th), including a meager 97.6 rushing ypg (112th), and wasn’t far ahead of Iowa State in scoring, at just 21.6 ppg (98th). The Gophers’ defense gave up 24.6 points and 364.2 yards per contest.

Iowa State is on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 10-2 against the Big Ten and 5-1 following a SU loss, but the Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday starts and 0-4 ATS as a pup of up to three points. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five as a chalk of three points or less, but the Gophers are on ATS purges of 0-4 as a bowl favorite, 1-6 after a spread-cover and 2-7 in non-conference action.

Iowa State is on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 3-0-1 in bowl games, 5-0 against the Big Ten and 5-1 following a spread-cover, and the under is 4-1 in Minnesota’s last five Thursday starts and 7-3 in the Gophers’ last 10 as a favorite. However, Minnesota is also on “over” streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-1 in the postseason and 10-3 outside the Big Ten.

ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA STATE

Tennessee (7-5 SU and ATS) vs. (12) Virginia Tech (9-3, 7-5 ATS)

Surging Virginia Tech, in a bowl game for the 17th consecutive year, heads to Atlanta to face the Lane Kiffin-coached Volunteers, who are back in the postseason after missing out last year.

Virginia Tech fell to current No. 1-ranked Alabama 34-24 as a six-point pup in the season opener at the Georgia Dome, then rolled up five straight victories before a midseason stumble dropped it out of ACC title contention and the BCS picture. However, after losses at Georgia Tech and to North Carolina, the Hokies put the pedal down in their last four games, winning SU and ATS in blowout fashion, with no game closer than 13 points. In the Nov. 28 finale at rival Virginia, Va-Tech rumbled to a 42-13 pasting as a 14-point chalk.

Tennessee, in its first year under Kiffin, lost three of its first five games and was at 3-4 SU (4-3 ATS) before turning things around to get bowl-eligible out of the SEC. The Vols won four of their last five (3-2 ATS), finishing the regular season with a 30-24 overtime victory at Kentucky as a three-point favorite. Tennessee also gave Alabama a tough battle, losing 12-10 on the road as a hefty 14-point underdog on Oct. 24. In that contest, the Vols had a game-winning field-goal attempt blocked as time expired.

These teams have met seven times, dating all the way back to 1896. However, the last clash was in 1994, when Tennessee posted a 45-23 rout as a seven-point chalk in the Gator Bowl.

The Hokies dumped Cincinnati 20-7 in the Orange Bowl last season as a 2½-point pup, but in their current 16-season bowl run – all under coach Frank Beamer – they are just 7-9 SU and ATS. Meanwhile, in their last postseason appearance two years ago, the Vols edged Wisconsin 21-17 as a 2½-point chalk in the Outback Bowl. Tennessee is in the postseason for the 19th time in the last 21 seasons.

Virginia Tech is putting up 31.4 points and 388.2 yards per game, with much of it coming from the nation’s 15th-best running attack (206.4 ypg). Freshman RB Ryan Williams has piled up 1,538 yards (5.7 ypc) and 18 TDs on the ground, including a whopping four TDs in each of his last two games. The Hokies also have a stout defense, ranking 11th in points allowed (15.8 per game), 14th in total defense (300.1 ypg) and sixth against the pass (161.4 ypg).

Kiffin has Tennessee’s offense averaging 395.6 ypg (225.6 passing, 170 rushing), paced by RB Montario Hardesty’s 1,302 rushing yards (4.9 ypc) and 12 TDs. QB Jonathan Crompton (2,565 passing yards) started slow but finished with a solid senior campaign, tossing 26 TDs against just 12 INTs for a unit that averaged 30.6 ppg. Like Va-Tech, Tennessee rates well in total defense (308.8 ypg, 18th) and passing defense (165.9 ypg, 11th), while yielding 21 ppg (27th).

Virginia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last five as a bowl chalk and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 non-conference affairs. However, along with its current 4-0 ATS run (all as a chalk), the Hokies are on ATS surges of 4-1 after a SU win, 8-3 against winning teams and 16-5 on Thursday. Tennessee is on ATS upswings of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 as an underdog, but the Vols are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight games outside the SEC and 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points.

For Virginia Tech, the under is on a bundle of runs, including 5-1 overall (all as a chalk), 12-0 on Thursday, 5-1 against winning teams, 8-2 after a spread-cover and 13-6 following a SU win. Likewise, the under for Tennessee is on tears of 5-0 in bowl games, 4-1 at neutral sites, 4-0 against the ACC, 9-2 with the Vols a ‘dog, 10-4-1 after a SU win and 38-18-3 coming off a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Tips and Trends

Stanford Cardinal vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Stanford: This year alone, Stanford finished with a winning record and are bowling for the first time in 8 years. Combine that with the runner up Heisman finish for RB Toby Gerhart, and you have a storybook year for the Stanford Cardinal. Stanford finished the regular season 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS. The Cardinal were 2-3 both SU and ATS away from home this year. Stanford was 2-2 ATS this season as the listed underdog, winning each of their last two games outright as 7 and 10 point underdogs. Stanford will be without their starting QB Andrew Luck, so even more emphasis will be on Gerhart. Gerhart led the nation in both rushing and rushing TDs with over 1,725 rushing YDS and 26 TDs. This Cardinal offense averaged more than 36 PPG, which ranked them 10th in the nation. The Cardinal defense has been struggling, as they've allowed 5 of their past 7 opponents to score at least 34 PTS.

Stanford is 5-1 ATS last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - QB Andrew Luck (finger) is out.
CB Quinn Evans (hamstring) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Oklahoma (-10, O/U 54.5): This is a school record 11th straight season that Oklahoma has been bowling. However, this isn't the bowl the Sooners expected to be playing in when the season began. An injury to star QB Sam Bradford has changed everything. QB Landry Jones has attempted to fill the big shoes of Bradford, but he's struggled. Jones is completing 58% of his passes and has 13 INTs as the starting QB, including a 5 INT game. WR Ryan Broyles has been a consistent receiving threat as he has 12 TDs to go with nearly 1,000 receiving YDS. The Sooners have the 7th ranked total defense in the country, as they only allow 273 YPG. The Sooners have held 3 of their past 4 games to 10 PTS or fewer, and are coming off their 3rd shutout of the season against Oklahoma St. The Sooners were 1-3 both SU and ATS this season away from home. Oklahoma is 2-3 ATS this season as a single digit favorite.

Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS last 6 Bowl games as a favorite.
Under is 11-2 last 13 games overall.

Key Injuries - DT DeMarcus Granger (back) is questionable.
OL Trent Williams (head) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Tennessee Volunteers

Virginia Tech (-5.5, O/U 49.5): Virginia Tech and bowl games are one in the same. The Hokies are playing in a bowl game for the 17th consecutive season, the 3rd longest active streak in the country. The Hokies ended the regular season with a record of 9-3 SU, with all 3 losses coming to ranked teams by a combined total of 18 PTS. Virginia Tech was 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS away from home this season. The Hokies went 0-2 ATS this season as a single digit favorite. QB Tyrod Taylor leads this Hokies offense with both his arm and his feet. Taylor threw for over 2,100 YDS and was also the 2nd leading rusher on the team with 344 YDS. Taylor had 17 total TDs with only 4 INTs on the season. Freshman RB Ryan Williams had an amazing year, rushing for more than 1,500 YDS and 20 TDs. The Hokies have held 4 straight opponents to 13 PTS or less and for the season are only allowing 15.8 PPG.

Virginia Tech is 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-2 last 10 games following a ATS win.

Key Injuries - CB Stephan Virgil (academics) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)

Tennessee: What a roller coaster ride it's been for the Lane Kiffin led Volunteers. After starting the season 1-2 SU, the Volunteers have won 4 of their last 5 games to finish the season at 7-5 SU. Their most high profile game was a 2 point loss at Alabama. There have also been some high profile comments and suspensions out of the Volunteer camp. Tennessee only won 1 road game this season, but they did finish 3-1 ATS away from home. Tennessee was also 3-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. A big reason for the Volunteers success of late is their offense. Tennessee has scored 30 PTS or more in 4 of their last 5 games. Senior RB Montario Hardesty leads the team with over 1,300 YDS rushing including 12 TDs. QB Jonathan Crompton has thrown over 2,500 YDS with 26 TDs against 12 INTs. Defensively, the Volunteers are ranked in the top 20 in the country in both PPG and YPG (21 and 308) respectively.

Tennessee is 2-6 ATS last 8 non-conference games.
Under is 9-2 last 11 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - WR Nu'Keese Richardson (disciplinary) is out.
DB Mike Edwards (disciplinary) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17