What Bettors Need to Know: Pittsburgh at Utah
By Marc Lawrence
Opening night of the 2010 College football season features a matchup of two ranked foes when No. 15 Pittsburgh invades No. 24 Utah in a game nationally televised on the VERSUS network at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Let’s see how they matchup.
Wanny be’s
Thursday’s game looks to be a contrast of styles. Pittsburgh’s conservative head coach Dave Wannstedt figures to protect new quarterback Tino Sunseri with a straight-ahead ground game, while Utah coach Kyle Whittingham looks to spread things out with his wide-open offense.
Pitt running back Dion Lewis is the leading returning rusher in the nation. As a result, he is among the early contenders for the Heisman Trophy. He could help that cause with a huge game this evening.
The 5-foot-8 scatback will look to carry the workload. He also hopes to make NFL scouts mindful of LeSean McCoy, a former Panther.
The last three seasons, Lewis and McCoy combined to rush for 4,615 yards. McCoy gained 1,488 yards as a sophomore and 1,328 as a freshman before going to the NFL.
"Dion Lewis is in the mix for 30 carries (a game during the season), in my mind," Wannstedt told reporters.
Whittingham compares Lewis to Oregon State star running back Jacquizz Rodgers, a third-team All-American who rushed for 1,440 yards and 21 touchdowns last season. The 5-foot-7 Rodgers, like Lewis, was considered to be undersized coming out of high school.
"He (Lewis) is quick, fast, not great size but he is the same type of back that Jacquizz is," Whittingham told the media. "He has great vision and balance. He is a powerful runner in regards to his size."
A revamped offensive line features a pair of new starting tackles in Myles Caragein and Chas Alecxih. They aren't rookies, though, as both played a lot for Pitt last season.
The Panthers led the nation in sacks a season ago and could do so again in 2010 behind returning defensive ends Jabaal Sheard and the 2009 Big East Defensive Player of the Year, Greg Romeus.
Together they form the best pair of defensive end tandem in college football.
Ute need to know
Utah hasn't lost at home in close to three seasons (18 wins in a row) and is 7-0 lifetime against current Big East teams.
The Utes also own the nation’s longest current bowl win streak at nine.
Quarterback Jordan Wynn, the MVP of last year’s Poinsettia Bowl, is back. So is running back Eddie Ware, who rushed for 1,000 yards in 10 games.
Matt Asiata, who led the Mountain West Conference in rushing through the first four games before a knee injury ended his season last year, joins Ware in the backfield.
Three of Utah's top four receivers from a season ago are now gone, including 1,000-yard man David Reed.
They do return twelve starters in all, including six all-MWC performers.
Going going…
Utah will be off to join the new Pac-12 in 2011, leaving the Mountain West after this season.
Brigham Young and TCU will once again battle Utah for conference honors this season as the trio squares off for the final time in the MWC.
"All three have contributed to reshaping the perception of the Mountain West Conference by each finishing in the final Top 25 for the past two seasons," said Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson. "Actually, most of the western media have now anointed them the big three when discussing the league."
BYU had undefeated conference records in 2006 and 2007, while posting 10-win seasons in four consecutive years. Texas Christian had four 11-win seasons and finally got a BCS bid last season, losing to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. If you add up all the records since 2003 (and TCU since 2005), the trio has won 75 percent of their games, going 180-59.
"I'm sad to see Utah leave. We've had great games. It's been a great rivalry," TCU coach Gary Patterson told the media. "I think they brought a lot to the conference." The Utes were the most successful over the past seven seasons, winning 69 games, including two BCS bowl games (Fiesta and Sugar).
Beasts
The Big East has been impressive in season openers, especially when on the road, going 51-25 ATS.
If that same team won eight or more games the previous season they have gone 21-6 straight up and 19-6 against the spread.
Leasts
Big East dogs are 0-3 straight up and against the spread in three previous meetings against the Mountain West.
They have been outscored 107-42 in the three contests.
Coaching tug o‘ war
Wannstedt is 15-11 against the spread as a visitor with the Panthers, including 6-3 in non-conference clashes.
Whittingham is 25-5 straight up and 15-12-1 against the spread in home games with the Utes, but only 2-5-1 outside the conference.
So. Miss at South Carolina
By Christian Alexander
Thursday, September 2
Southern Mississippi (0-0) at South Carolina (0-0)
7:30 PM, ESPN
Williams-Brice Stadium (grass)
Sports.com Line: South Carolina -13.5 O/U 46
To steal a line from the great wordsmith Yogi Berra, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.”
No, your eyes do not deceive you. For the third straight year South Carolina will open the college football season on a Thursday night in front of a national television audience on ESPN. The only thing that has changed is the opponent - the past two seasons the Gamecocks faced NC State and this season they welcome the Golden Eagles of Southern Miss to Williams-Brice Stadium.
After last year’s “thrilling” 7-3 victory over the Wolfpack, I’m kind of surprised Spurrier’s boys got invited back to kick off the season but I guess all that money Under Armour spends on ESPN gets them some extra benefits.
Seriously though, with nine starters back, including QB Stephen Garcia, South Carolina should be improved on offense. That said, word out of Columbia is that stud TE Weslye Saunders will miss this game due to a suspension. Spurrier has been mum on the exact details of Saunders' suspension but it’s clear the NFL prospect is in his doghouse and maybe the NCAA’s. While Garcia will miss the skills of Saunders, he has a pair of very talented wideouts in sophomores Alshon Jeffery and Tori Gurley who should give him plenty of opportunities to throw down the field.
Not that the entire South Carolina attack will be vertical. The Gamecocks can run the ball and will definitely give Southern Miss a taste of the “WildCock” formation where the ultra-talented and athletic sophomore CB Stephon Gilmore takes direct snaps. Also, keep an eye on true freshman RB Marcus Lattimore, who is expected to pay big dividends this season.
But before we get too far ahead of ourselves and start gushing about the potential of the SC offense, let’s remember who the opponent is in this game. For those lacking in the history department, it’s important to note that Southern Miss is one of the more decorated programs in college football over the past 15 years or so. The Golden Eagles have 16 straight winning seasons, a streak that only Florida State (33 yrs), Florida (22yrs), and Virginia Tech (17yrs) can best. That’s pretty good company to keep when you are talking college football.
Head coach Larry Fedora, who came to USM a couple years ago after a successful stint as the Offensive Coordinator at Oklahoma State, will look to keep that streak alive in his third season in Hattiesburg. Despite its most famous football alum being QB Bret Favre, the Southern Miss program has been built around a nasty defense. This season should be no different as Fedora will lean on his nine returning starters on defense, including LB Korey Williams, to win ballgames.
On offense, the Golden Eagles only get three starters back but that group includes the talented QB Austin Davis who missed most of last year with a foot injury last season. The junior is back to 100% and ready to add to the 1,200 yards with 10 touchdowns he racked up in just five games last season. Fedora has to be thrilled with the depth he has at QB as backup Martevious Young filled in quite capably in the absence of Davis last season and is a quality insurance policy for 2010.
No matter who is under center for Southern Miss, you can bet they will be looking early and often for WR DeAndre Brown. At 6'6", 230 pounds, the junior wideout is unquestionably one of the more dominating physical presences you will see catching balls on a Saturday or Sunday for that matter and NFL scouts are drooling over his potential. Brown will likely be locked up all night with Gilmore and it will be a great matchup to watch.
Of course, Davis will need time in the pocket in order to throw down the field and with a rebuilt offensive line in front of him, the Southern Miss signal caller could be scrambling quite a bit Thursday night. The play of the USM offensive line against a veteran and talented South Carolina front featuring DT Travian Robertson, Cliff Matthews, Ladi Ajiboye, and Devin Taylor could be the story line that determines this game. If Southern Miss can handle the seven returning starters on South Carolina’s defense, then the Golden Eagles should be able to hang with the home team all night long.
In 2009, Southern Miss was 6-5 ATS with a 3-3 mark on the road, while South Carolina was 7-4 ATS with a 4-2 mark at home.
VegasInsider.com
USC at Hawaii
By Brian Edwards
Lane Kiffin inexplicably got his first head-coaching job from Al Davis before the 2007 season. With the Raiders for just 20 games, they posted an abysmal 5-15 record on Kiffin’s watch.
Dismissed just four games into the 2008 campaign, Kiffin had three months to jockey for a head-coaching job at the collegiate level. When Phillip Fulmer’s tenure at Tennessee went stale and the masses up on Rocky Top demanded that he step aside, AD Mike Hamilton pulled the trigger.
In doing so, UT got rid of class, integrity, leadership and experience. In his search for a replacement, Hamilton went looking for youth, flash and excitement. He found it in Kiffin, who sold Hamilton a bill of goods that included a package deal for recruiting ace Ed Orgeron and legendary NFL defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin.
Hamilton bit on Kiffin’s pitch hook, line and sinker. He got the boosters to pony up for the nation’s most expensive coaching staff. Hamilton allowed his brash new coach to make a fool of himself and the university by falsely accusing Florida of recruiting violations, while racking up six secondary NCAA violations before coaching his first game for the Volunteers.
During a 7-6 season, Kiffin chirped more about moral victories in close losses to Alabama and Florida than anything of substance. But 14 months into his stay in Knoxville, Kiffin bolted for what he called his ‘dream job’ at USC, leaving behind broken promises and a lingering NCAA investigation.
Shortly after taking over at Heritage Hall, USC got hammered with the worst penalties the NCAA has dealt out since giving SMU the ‘death penalty’ in the early 1980s. The Trojans can’t go to a bowl game in 2010 or 2011, and they’ve had 30 scholarships (10 each for the next three incoming classes) stripped away.
The sanctions prompted OT Seantrel Henderson, who many recruitniks tabbed as the premier player in the 2010 class, to transfer to Miami. Although an appeal of the penalties is still pending, Kiffin and his staff were clearly caught off guard by the magnitude of the sanctions and have a much tougher challenge in front of them in the coming years.
Nevertheless, USC still goes into its Week 1 opener at Hawaii as a heavy favorite. Most books opened the Trojans as 18 ½-point favorites earlier this month, but that number is already up to 21 and rising. As of Tuesday afternoon, the total was 54 at most spots.
USC finished 2009 with a 9-4 straight-up record and an anemic 4-9 against-the-spread ledger. Meanwhile, Hawaii went 6-7 SU and 6-6 ATS.
The Trojans return five starters on each side of the ball, including sophomore quarterback Matt Barkley, who started 12 of 13 games as a true freshman. Barkley threw for 2,735 yards and 15 touchdowns, but he was intercepted 14 times.
USC’s leading rusher (RB Joe McKnight) and receiver (WR Damian Williams) have departed. Senior RB Allen Bradford will step up to take the bulk of the carries after rushing for eight TDs and averaging 5.8 yards per carry last season.
Greg McMackin’s squad has five starters on offense and seven on defense returning. However, a pair of starters on the offensive line will be missing Thursday night. Junior center Matagisila Lefiti is out for the first three games of the season, while junior OG Brett Leonard isn’t expected to return until early October.
Junior Bryant Moniz has been named the starting QB for the Warriors, who won four of their last five games with Moniz under center last year. The lone loss in that stretch came against a Wisconsin team that was playing extremely well down the stretch.
Moniz posted a 14/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year. He has his favorite target and one of the WAC’s premier wideouts back in the mix. That would be senior Greg Salas, who had 106 receptions for 1,590 yards and eight TDs in ’09. Also, senior WR Kealoha Pilares returns after hauling in 66 catches for 690 yards and four TDs last season.
Hawaii owns a 4-4 spread record in eight home underdog situations since McMackin took over for June Jones in ’08. However, the Warriors are 0-3 versus the number as double-digit home ‘dogs.
USC was an atrocious 1-5 ATS as a road favorite last year and has failed to cover the number in nine of its last 12 road ‘chalk’ spots.
These schools met in the 2005 season opener with the Trojans rolling to a 63-17 victory as 36-point home favorites. They have won all six all-time meetings against the Warriors, scoring 60 points or more in the last three encounters.
ESPN will have television coverage at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
The reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Alabama RB Mark Ingram, will miss this week's opener against San Jose St. after injuring his knee at practice Monday afternoon. Ingram had the knee scoped on Tuesday and will miss at least one game, possibly more. With that said, there's no reason to downgrade the Tide because it has the nation's best back-up RB in Trent Richardson.
Oregon St. owns a 9-2 spread record in its last 11 games as an underdog. Since 2005, the Beavers have won outright as double-digit 'dogs three times. They are catching 13 1/2 against TCU at Cowboys Stadium on Saturday night.
Utah is just 2-4 ATS as a single-digit home favorite during Kyle Whittingham’s first five years at the helm. The Utes will host Pitt as three-point home favorites Thursday at 8:30 p.m. Eastern. Versus will have the telecast.
Pitt senior DE Jabaal Sheard is ‘out’ at Utah due to a suspension. Sheard had 42 tackles, five sacks and five tackles for losses last season.
Most books opened Northwestern as a three-point road favorite for its lid-lifter at Vandy, but the number was at five or 5 ½ as of Tuesday afternoon. This line move is probably due to a knee injury sustained by Vandy sophomore RB Warren Norman, who is ‘out’ this week. As a true freshman last year, Norman returned three kickoffs for touchdowns and also rushed for 783 yards and three TDs. He averaged 5.4 YPC on an offense that scored more than 13 points just four times.
Much of the pregame chatter about personnel for Saturday’s UNC-LSU game has been focused on the expected suspensions for the Tar Heels. However, the Tigers are going to be missing a few players as well. Starting junior center T-Bob Hebert (the son of Bobby, who played QB for the Saints and Falcons) is suspended for an off-season arrest, while back-up WR Chris Tolliver is ‘out’ with a concussion and back-up free safety Karnell Hatcher is ‘out’ with a knee injury.
Going into this week, there were 15,000 tickets available for the start of the Jimbo Fisher Era at Florida St. In fact, hotels in Tallahassee have a deal for free tickets for those that rent a room for the weekend. Now I know Samford doesn’t exactly get the blood flowing for a Week 1 game, but seriously? This reminds me of when Steve Spurrier was at UF and what he would say to the Orlando Sentinel’s Mike Bianchi in the week leading up to the Gators going to Doak-Campbell Stadium: (Spurrier twang: “Hey Mikey! You think they’re going to sell it out up there in Tallahassee this week?) Of course, both the ‘Noles and Gators would usually be in the top-five for this showdown.
Vegasinsider.com
NCAAF Week 1
South Carolina is 10-7 as home favorite under Spurrier; they are playing Georgia next, figure to hold back some here, but Southern Miss isn't a chump squad- they're 4-2 as road dog under Fedora, but were also 7-6 in last two seasons despite great turnover ratios of +10/+13. Eagles lost all but one starter on OL; that figures to be problem vs stout SEC defense. Carolina is 1-3 as a favorite the week before playing Georgia.
Marshall lost 52-10 at Va Tech, 24-7 at West Virginia LY; they lost at Wisconsin 51-14 in '08. Herd was 9-17 as road dog under their previous coach; this is first game for new coach Holliday. Ohio State is 33-18 as a favorite since '05, 21-15 as home fave since '04; they've got nine starters back on offense with third-year starting QB and four starters back on OL- they covered three of last four openers.
Iowa State lost seven starters on defense; they've got senior QB with 23 career starts and four starters back on OL (two seniors start). Cyclones are 17-9 as home favorite since '00, 21-12-1 vs spread in non-conference games during that time. Northern Illinois is 11-6 as road dog since 2005; they've got 8 starters back on defense, a junior QB with 18 starts and an OL with four junior starters and one senior.
Utah has had lot of distractions in offseason with shift to Pac-10 coming up; Utes lost seven starters on defense; they've got both QBs back from LY, and four starters back on OL. Utes are 10-8-1 as home favorite last four years. Pittsburgh lost its QB and three OL starters from LY; they're 10-3 as underdog last three years, 7-2 on road. Top four rushers return for Pitt, but with OL lot less experienced, will they run ball as well?
USC has only 67 scholarship players, a new coach, soph QB and ton of questions; Trojans are 3-9 as road favorite last two years. Who knows if they're going to be any good. Hawai'i is 13-14 since June Jones left, 4-4 as home dog. Warriors have junior QB with 8 starts, but lost four of five starters on OL (24 career starts)- they've got 7 starters back on defense.
Middle Tennessee's QB is suspended this game (off-field stuff) so the Blue Raiders are in disarray; they're 10-4 vs spread in non-league games, 2-2 as home dog under Stockstill. Minnesota has nine starters back on its offense, but lost nine on defense; they're 5-9 as favorite under Brewster, 1-2 on road. Gophers have senior QB and all five starters back on OL, so they better score to protect an almost all-new defense.
Home side won both Florida Atlantic-UAB games; Blazers lost 49-34 in Miami in '08, then crushed Owls 56-29 LY, running ball for 330 yards. UAB is 4-1 as favorite under Calloway, 3-1 at home; they've got new QB, but have nine starters back on defense, four back on OL. FAU has nine starters back on defense, but lost nine on offense, including all five on OL- their QB has five career starts, but is a senior. FAU is 9-19-1 as a road underdog the last five years.
Tips and Trends
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at South Carolina Gamecocks
GOLDEN EAGLES: Southern Mississippi is a team that many experts are picking to be a surprise conference winner. The Golden Eagles are attempting to become more of a defensive team, truly a new identity for a team known for throwing the football around offensively. The Golden Eagles are projected to finish 2nd in the East division of Conference USA. Southern Miss ended the year with a loss to MTSU in the New Orleans Bowl, finishing the season with a 7-6 record. Coach Larry Fedora has spent all offseason working on this new hyper defense. The Golden Eagles are also going to have to get accustomed to life without RB Damion Fletcher in the backfield. Fletcher was a record breaking running back for Southern Mississippi, and someone the Golden Eagles could look to to fill a leadership role. Southern Miss has struggled against the SEC of late, going 2-6 ATS against the brutal conference. The Golden Eagles have also played to the Under in 8 of their past 11 games against SEC schools.
Golden Eagles are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games.
Under is 8-3 in Golden Eagles last 11 vs. SEC.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 13
GAMECOCKS: (-13.5, O/U 46) South Carolina came into this season with high expectations, which makes all the off field distractions all the more disappointing. On top of the off field drama, coach Spurrier has also made some news when he announced that the starting QB position would be filled by 2 QB's, not just Stephen Garcia. Freshman Connor Shaw is also going to get his reps, as he is the CO-starter. The Gamecocks are at home for their first 3 games this year, highlighted by a game against Georgia next week. South Carolina is expected to finish as high as 3rd in the SEC East division, so expectations are running high. South Carolina is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Thursday night games, so clearly this team enjoys being in the national spotlight. Defensively, the Gamecocks have shined against unfamiliar teams. South Carolina has played to the Under in 8 of their past 11 non-conference games.
Gamecocks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
Under is 8-3 in Gamecocks last 11 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 28 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
USC Trojans at Hawaii Rainbows
TROJANS: (-21.5, O/U 54) USC might have the biggest question mark placed on them of any ranked team in College Football this season. How is this team going to fare, considering they are banned from postseason play and coming off a season in which they had 4 losses. Combine these past 2 questions with the simple fact the Trojans have a new coach at the helm, and it adds up to the biggest question mark of the season. The good news is that QB Matt Barkley has a year under his belt, gaining huge experience in last years struggles. Defensively, the Trojans must replace 4 starters in their secondary alone, led by All-American Taylor Mays. USC always has a top 5 recruiting class nationally, so the talent is there, they simply don't have the name recognition. RB Allen Bradford is expected to carry the load offensively as well, as the Senior running back is simply tough to bring down. The Trojans are looking to play better on the road this season, as they are 1-8 ATS in their past 9 road games overall. The Trojans have played to the under in 7 of their past 8 games in September.
Trojans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Under is 7-1 in Trojans last 8 games in September.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 34
RAINBOWS: Hawaii is very excited to be playing against a team like USC, a school ranked 14th in the AP Top 25 poll. Hawaii has always been a proud program, especially at home. Unfortunately, last year was a season that turned into a disaster, as the Rainbows finish the season with a record of 6-7 and missed becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2005. The Rainbows are known for their pass happy offense, and this year's edition shouldn't disappoint. QB Bryant Moniz had a full training camp this season, as opposed to last year where he was thrust into the starting lineup in the middle of the season. Moniz has a great arm, and has very capable WR's to throw too. WR Greg Salas might be the best WR you've never heard of, as he finished 4th in in the FBS with 122.3 YPG last year. Including in the 122.3 YPG were a total of 106 receptions last year for Salas. Defensively, the Rainbows will try to limit the Trojans with regards to big plays. The Trojans have scored at least 61 PTS in each of the past 3 games with Hawaii, so clearly the Rainbows are faced with a tall order.
Rainbows are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. Pac-10.
Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 20 (SIDE of the Day)