Ole Miss Opens SEC At USC
by Matt Severance
Things are very good right now in Oxford, Mississippi. The Ole Miss football team is No. 4 in the nation, its highest ranking since 1970, and the Bulldogs boast the second-longest current winning streak in the country with eight in a row – the team’s longest streak in nearly 37 years.
Ole Miss quarterback Jevan Snead has had multiple TD passes in all eight games, which is a school record. The offense gets the publicity for the Rebels, having averaged 46.5 points in the past six games and putting up 45 and 52 points, respectively, against Memphis and Southeastern Louisiana this year. But don’t overlook that defense, which has allowed only 20 points so far and held Southeast Louisiana to 0-for-14 on third-down conversions last week.
Ole Miss is shining on defense despite not getting much from star defensive end Greg Hardy, who sprained his ankle in the opener and sat out last week. But Hardy, a potential first-round NFL pick and one of the best pass-rushers in the country, is being called probable to play Thursday night against South Carolina. The host Gamecocks are 3-point dogs on BetUS.
The Rebels' three sacks in their first two games rank last in the SEC; Hardy has 18.5 sacks in his last two seasons.
Mississippi had owned the series with South Carolina, taking a five-game winning streak into last year’s meeting. But USC won 31-24 in Oxford. USC got a career day from now departed quarterback Chris Smelley (327 yards and three touchdowns) and recovered two critical fumbles by the Rebels. Ole Miss then was beaten the following week by Alabama as well but hasn’t lost since. The Rebs have, however, dropped five SEC openers in a row.
South Carolina’s offense looked horrible in the opening 7-3 win over N.C. State but has put up 65 points in the two games since then in losing to Georgia and beating Florida Atlantic. In the past two games, sophomore quarterback Stephen Garcia has really blossomed, and he ranks second in the SEC in total offense at 253.0 yards per game. The Gamecocks had a 100-yard receiver (freshman Jarvis Giles, 113) and 100-yard rusher (freshman Tori Gurley, 100) on Saturday for the first time since 2007. Yet coach Steve Spurrier isn’t satisfied with that unit.
"The offense has made some improvement but still could make so much more,” Spurrier said in published reports. “We can't hit a deep pass to save our lives around here. We have guys wide open but something always happens.”
In that win over the Owls, the Gamecocks were without two of their top three defensive tacklers as Nathan Pepper, who returned a fumble for a TD last year vs. Ole Miss, was out with a high ankle sprain and Ladi Ajiboye was serving the final game of a three-game suspension. Linebacker Eric Norwood was limited some after suffering a bruised shoulder in the game, but he is expected to play against Ole Miss. Ajiboye will be back, but it is unlikely Pepper will go. USC ranks fourth in the SEC in total defense (249.3 ypg) and is tied for the SEC lead in sacks with 10.
By the way, watch for Norwood to be a demon against South Carolina, as he thrives in Thursday night games. In 2007, No. 9 Kentucky visited South Carolina on a Thursday and Norwood returned two fumbles for touchdowns as USC pulled the upset. Last year, Norwood had a season-high 10 tackles in a Thursday night loss at Vanderbilt. And in this year’s season opener, also on a Thursday, Norwood had two sacks as USC shut down N.C. State.
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Game of the day: Mississippi at South Carolina
By Matt Fargo
Mississippi Rebels at South Carolina Gamecocks (+3.5, 53)
Line movement
There has been a decent amount of line movement early on. The game came out anywhere from 3.5 to 4.5 and was moved down to 3 rather quickly. Tuesday night and early Wednesday saw the number go back to 3 and then by the afternoon, there were 3.5’s across the board with even some 4’s available.
Bookmaker opened the total at 51 and it was immediately bet up to 52 and then eventually 53 which is where all other shops opened it at.
Injuries
Mississippi All-SEC defensive end Greg Hardy is listed as probable with an ankle injury. Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt told ESPN on Wednesday that he expects Hardy to play, but he’s not sure how much.
“He’s a little better and we expect to get a few plays out of him. I don’t know how many, but he’s getting better and we’re excited he was on the field this week.”
Meanwhile South Carolina All-American linebacker Eric Norwood is nursing a shoulder injury but is listed as probable.
Weather
It should be a great night in Columbia. The forecast calls for a slight chance of a thunderstorm with temperatures in the mid to high 70s.
Achilles’ heel
South Carolina’s defense is the team’s strength, but poor play from the special teams unit isn’t helping the situation.
The Gamecocks surrendered run backs of 100 yards and two 40 yards returns against Georgia.
“Kickoff coverage is our sore spot right now,” USC coach Steve Spurrier told the USA today. “Our kicker’s not real good and our coverage is horrible. It seems like they all like to run together outside. You can see it. I can see it. Everybody in the ballpark can see it.”
Speaking of the fans, it seems they aren’t satisfied with the way things are going. South Carolina’s attendance in its home opener (70, 411) was the smallest since 1995.
Over-hyped Rebels?
The betting market is all over Mississippi in this game. As of Wednesday afternoon, 80 percent of close to 8,000 bets have gone in on the Rebels. After all, what else would the public do with a highly ranked team as short road faves?
But maybe the public is right. The Rebels closed very strong last season and with just about everyone back, they became a preseason favorite in the SEC West. Rarely have they been on nationally televised games so they will be out prove something come Thursday. Especially quarterback Jevan Snead who said these are the games that made him choose Ole Miss.
Ole Miss supporters will be happy to know their team appears completely recovered from a recent battle with the flu. Two weeks ago, as many as 38 players were fighting through the bug. The team was a bit off in the first half of its game against Southeastern Louisiana but put things together and came away with a 52-6 win.
Line of Scrimmage
The goal for South Carolina will be simple: keep the potent Mississippi offense off the field. In order to do that the Gamecocks will have to control the clock with a successful running attack.
South Carolina was last in the SEC in rushing averaging just 94.1 ypg last year, while Mississippi was fourth in the nation and first in the SEC in rushing defense, allowing just 85.5 yards per game.
The Gamecocks rushed for 287 yards last week against Florida Atlantic, which was the most in four-plus years under pass-happy coach Steve Spurrier.
Trendsetters
The Gamecocks are 5-2 in Thursday night games under Spurrier’s guidance. The Rebels are 1-11-2 against the spread in their last 14 games as a favorite of three points or fewer, but South Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog.
The over is 16-3 in South Carolina’s last 19 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Ole Miss in the spotlight
By Brobury Sports
The Mississippi Rebels get some much needed national exposure when they visit the South Carolina Gamecocks on Thursday night.
Mississippi is four-point road chalk with the Over/Under at 53 points. They opened up as three-point favorites. The teams are a combined 5-0 against the spread (ATS), so something has to give.
Ole Miss (3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) is the 4th ranked team in the country, but they may be the most unknown in the Top 10. The Rebels won their last six games of last season to finish 9-4, including beating highly touted Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl.
This year, Mississippi has started out 2-0 with wins over Memphis and Southeastern Louisiana. The offense is led by All-American quarterback candidate, Jevan Snead.
Snead burst onto the scene last year after transferring from Texas. He had 16 touchdowns versus only three interceptions in his final six games. Snead is averaging 25 passing attempts this year as the Rebels also have a balanced and solid running game.
The Mississippi defense returned eight starters from a group that was ranked 19th nationally. They were also second in the SEC in rush defense and 4th nationally. The Rebels ‘D’ is ranked 30th so far this year and defensive end Greg Hardy should play despite his sprained ankle.
Note that Ole Miss is 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. However, they’re only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
Spurrier has tricks up his sleeve
Coach Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina squad won last year’s meeting, 31-24 as two-point road dogs. That game was sandwiched right between Mississippi’s stunning victory at Florida and another tough road game at Alabama.
The Gamecocks played Florida Atlantic last week after opening up with road games at NC State and Georgia. They are 2-1 straight-up and 3-0 ATS with Georgia being a close loss (41-37).
South Carolina needs to run the ball to take pressure off quarterback Stephen Garcia. Garcia is not very accurate and has had at least one interception in seven of his last eight games.
The Gamecocks defense is ranked 15th in the nation this season and should provide a good chess match with the Ole Miss offense.
South Carolina is 5-2 ATS in their last seven Thursday games, a night they play on often. The Gamecocks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home dog.
The ‘under’ is 7-2 in South Carolina’s last nine home games.
Rebels, Gamecocks do battle
By AllStar.com
The Rebels jumped one spot to No. 4 in this week's Associated Press poll. Ole Miss last reached No. 4 in the rankings on October 12, 1970. The last time the Rebels were ranked higher than fourth was September 1964, when the team was the nation's No. 1. The Rebels' No. 4 ranking marks the highest ever by a Houston Nutt coached team. South Carolina received seven votes in this week's coach's poll.
This game will be the 15th meeting between Ole Miss and South Carolina dating back to 1947, and the sixth since the Gamecocks joined the SEC in 1992. The Rebels lead the series 8-6 and had won five straight meetings until South Carolina defeated the Rebels 31-24 last season in Oxford. Ole Miss has won four of the five SEC meetings: 30-28 at Oxford in 1998, 36-10 in 1999 at Columbia, 43-40 in Oxford in 2003 and 31-28 in Columbia in 2004, which was the last encounter at Carolina. The Rebels have won four straight in Williams-Brice Stadium and boast a 4-3 all-time mark in Columbia.
Quarterback: Jevan Snead, who threw 26 touchdown passes in 2008, has extended his Ole Miss-record streak of eight straight games with two or more touchdown passes. He has completed at least one touchdown pass in 11 straight games. That's five shy of the school record held by Eli Manning. Snead is a certain first-round draft pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.
South Carolina has erupted into a fairly good offensive team. They have looked crisp on offense, especially with the timing routes. Stephen Garcia has the look of a great SEC QB. Garcia threw a good game against FAU notching a 140 passer rating. Garcia, who has struggled with consistency, had his second straight strong outing completing 20 of 27 for 222 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions.
Running Backs: Sophomore RB Brandon Bolden had his second 100-yard game in his last three outings. Bolden has led the team in rushing in three straight games. Sophomore RB Enrique Davis has rushed for a TD in each of the first two games, tying him with Dexter McCluster for the team lead.
South Carolina's running game finally got on track, racking up 287 yards on 8.2 yards per carry against the Owls after rushing for 222 in the first two games combined. RB Jarvis Giles a freshman spearheaded the 287-yard rushing performance by the Gamecocks. Giles showed off his speed on several outside runs and scored his first career touchdown. Giles had 113 yards rushing.
Wide Receivers: WR Pat Patterson, who originally committed to rival Mississippi State, had a team-best four receptions for 79 yards. That included a 29-yard score in the third quarter. Senior Shay Hodge has eight receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown. Dexter McCluster has caught nine balls for 113yards and a touchdown.
Tori Gurley (12-180-1TD) and Weslye Saunders (12-153) are the go to guy's for Garcia both average over 11 yards per catch.
Defense: DE Jerrell Powe The much-heralded recruit notched his first career start and could be a catalyst for the Ole Miss defensive front. Powe recorded two tackles, one of them for a loss. Ole Miss had two or more interceptions in its seventh straight game. It also had an interception returned for a touchdown for the third straight game. Ole Miss registered 10.0 TFLs in the season opener against Memphis, including a career-high 2.0 for Powe. Ole Miss has forced eight total turnovers this year with four by interception and four via fumble. Mississippi, expects to have star defensive end Greg Hardy (sprained left ankle) back this week.
South Carolina's defense gave up around 300 yards to a Sun Belt team in FAU. They didn't always get much pressure on the quarterback despite having what should have been a decided advantage in the trenches. The worry for the Gamecocks and the defense is the lack of a pass rush, but that should get better when Ladi Ajiboye (back from suspension) and Nathan Pepper (injury) returning this weekend.
Special Teams: With five extra points against SE Louisiana, Junior K Joshua Shene extended his streak of successful PATs to 85; Shene remains perfect on the year (2-for-2 FGs, 11-for-11 PATs).
In all three of South Carolina's games, the kickoff team has given up a ridiculous number of long returns that has to change against an athletic Ole Miss squad. Whether it is on kick returns or punt returns Spurrier must make sure that Bryce Sherman gets his hands on the ball. He would easily be the fastest player on the field and can take it to the house every time he touches the ball.
Ole Miss leads the SEC and ranks third in the nation in scoring offense (48.5 ppg).
Over its last six games, Ole Miss is averaging 46.5 points per outing, while holding the opposition to just 11.2 points. At home the Gamecocks are averaging 38.0 scoring, and holding teams to 16.0 points scored on defense.
The Rebels get their first big test of the season Thursday night when they face South Carolina in Columbia. Then, it's a trip to Vanderbilt before what is shaping up to be a showdown in Oxford against Alabama.
The Rebels have yet to go up against a defense with a pulse, and jumping into the ballgame with a team with SEC size and speed could give them a quick shock on Thursday night. On the other hand, Houston Nutt has had three weeks to hold his hand and scout the Gamecock defense. Steve Spurrier is famous for using these kinds of dynamics to his advantage; will Nutt have anything surprising in store for us?
South Carolina appears to be overmatched this week. Given the fact that the game is at home, Carolina should keep it close. However, we believe that Ole Miss will leave Columbia with the W and set South Carolina back to 2-2.
Trends:
OLE MISS is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
OLE MISS is 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
OLE MISS is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
S CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons.
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.
Growling-Bulldogs
By SportsPic
Bulldogs off an impressive upset at Vanderbilt as 8.5 point underdogs return to their own backyard for a tussle with LSU Tigers. Out gaining Commodores 260 to 33 on the ground in the victory expect State with a loaded stable of tailbacks led by Anthony Dixon to once again use a rush-first attack in it's attempt to upset LSU. Although LSU has owned this series winning nine consecutive and 13-of-14 encounters and is clearly the better team in this matchup in regard to talent, don't expect a blowout. This pack of Bulldogs look primed to give Tigers a run. Consider taking the expect +12.5 points knowing State is ridding a 5-1 ATS mark as home underdogs vs SEC foes and that LSU enters a cash draining 2-8 ATS last ten overall, 2-12 against-the-number the past fourteen laying double digit points.
Ole Miss at South Carolina
By Christian Alexander
#4 Mississippi (2-0, 0-0 SEC) at South Carolina (2-1, 0-1 SEC)
Williams-Brice Stadium (Natural Grass)
Sports.com Line: Mississippi -4, O/U 53.5
It’s usually about week three or four of the season that things start to get interesting. And so it is in 2009 for the Ole Miss program. The Rebels, currently sitting at No. 4 in the Associated Press poll, have won eight straight, the second-longest current streak in the country and the program’s longest streak in almost 37 years.
However, while we all know how Ole Miss finished the 2008 season – and they certainly looked strong in outgunning the Red Raiders of Texas Tech 47-34 in the Cotton Bowl – the team hasn’t had to face a quality opponent in 2009, with easy wins over Memphis and Southeastern Louisiana. That will change this Thursday night when coach Houston Nutt takes the Rebels and their highest ranking in nearly four decades to Columbia, SC to face the Gamecocks of South Carolina.
As I’m sure you remember, coach Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks kicked off the Thursday night season this year in a snooze fest against N.C. State. South Carolina won that game 7-3 before heading to Georgia for their SEC opener; a game Spurrier’s team would drop 41-37 in a wild one. A win over Florida Atlantic last weekend put South Carolina at 2-1 entering this game and knowing that a win over Ole Miss would set them up nicely as they enter the meat of their schedule.
The big question with South Carolina entering the season seems to have been answered. Sophomore quarterback Stephen Garcia hasn’t been spectacular but has certainly done a much better job taking care of the ball to start this season and is making strides towards becoming a solid SEC signal caller. His 313 yard, two-touchdown performance against Georgia was certainly a sign of the potential Garcia has and the QB looks miles ahead of where he was when he ended 2008 with four interceptions in a 31-10 beating against Iowa in the Outback bowl.
Of course, there were no such worries about the QB position for coach Nutt and the Mississippi faithful. Quite the opposite actually as QB Jevan Snead was probably the single biggest reason the Rebels received a Top 10 preseason ranking.
Snead, who transferred from Texas, is clearly the most popular Ole Miss player since Eli Manning was taking snaps in Oxford and any success the team has this season will likely flow from his right arm. Snead has had a nice start to the 2009 season but as I said at the top, the Rebels definitely haven’t been tested.
LB Eric Norwood, the senior leader of the South Carolina defense and one of the top defensive players in the nation will change all that on Thursday. Norwood has to be happy to know that the Cocks' defensive line will get DT Ladi Ajiboye (suspension) and Nathan Pepper (knee) back for this game. It will be the closest to full strength that this unit has been all season.
That could be bad news for Mississippi, especially when you consider this program hasn't won a SEC opener in five years, with the last two losses coming at the hands of Vanderbilt. Snead will definitely have to be on top of his game in hostile territory for the Rebels to break that streak and a win would give Ole Miss a 3-0 start for the first time in 20 years.
The Mississippi defense should also be better off this week as star defensive end Greg Hardy (sprained left ankle) is expected to play. Hardy will likely be on the lookout for the mobility of Garcia as well as the 5-11, 186-pound true freshman RB Jarvis Giles who bagged SEC Freshman of the Week honors last week after rushing for 113 yards against FAU.
Last season South Carolina got the better of Ole Miss as the Gamecocks escaped Oxford with a 31-24 win. That was just one week after the Rebels had shocked the nation by beating Florida in the Swamp.
This line opened with Ole Miss being favored by three points and has since jumped to four. Both teams are currently undefeated against the spread although South Carolina looks much more impressive at 3-0 ATS than does Ole Miss who has only played in one lined game.
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Tips and Trends
Mississippi at South Carolina
Mississippi (-3.5, O/U 53): The fourth-ranked Mississippi Rebels are enjoying their highest rating in nearly 40 years and bent on revenge. South Carolina upset the Rebels last year on the road, 31-24. Mississippi had just knocked off Florida the week before and was in a huge letdown spot. That’s not the case this time around as this is Mississippi’s SEC opener. Quarterback Jevan Snead has thrown multiple touchdown passes in a school-record eight consecutive games. Snead threw for three scores and helped the Rebels amass 500 yards of offense in beating Southern Louisiana 52-6 on Saturday. It was the Rebels’ eighth win a row, their longest victory streak since 1971-72. Mississippi has covered in eight of its last nine road contests. The Rebels are 9-2 against the spread versus a team with a winning record. However, Mississippi also has failed to cover eight of the past 10 times it has been road chalk.
The Under has cashed in 10 of Mississippi’s last 14 road contests versus a team with a winning home record.
The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between the two schools.
Key Injuries - Defensive end Greg Hardy (ankle) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 28
South Carolina: Judging by its 38-16 win over Florida Atlantic on Saturday, South Carolina has found a ground attack. The Gamecocks rushed for 287 yards after averaging 111 during their first two games. Taking advantage of his team’s excellent running, Gamecocks quarterback Stephen Garcia had one of his better games completing 20 of 27 passes for 222 yards, throwing for one touchdown and running for another score. The Gamecocks now, though, are facing a much tougher defense in Mississippi, which ranks ninth nationally in scoring defense giving up 10 points per game. Star defensive end Greg Hardy is expected to play after missing time with an ankle injury. South Carolina has covered in five of its last six Thursday games. Gamecocks coach Steve Spurrier has compiled a 94-59-1 against the spread mark in SEC competition, while Mississippi coach Houston Nutt is 6-12 against the number as a road favorite.
The Under has cashed in 7 of the Gamecocks’ last nine home games.
The underdog is 4-1 ATS during the past five meetings between the two teams.
Key Injuries - Safety Darian Stewart (neck) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 25 (Side of the Day)
(4) Ole Miss (2-0, 1-0 ATS) at South Carolina (2-1, 3-0 ATS)
The Rebels bring the school’s highest ranking in 40 years into their SEC opener against Steve Spurrier and South Carolina at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, S.C.
Ole Miss, ranked fourth in the nation, crushed Southeastern Louisiana 52-6 in a non-lined home game Saturday. The Rebels have now rattled off eight straight victories (6-1 ATS) since mid-October a season ago, their longest winning streak since taking 10 in a row in the 1971-72 campaign.
Houston Nutt’s squad is led by Heisman-candidate quarterback Jevan Snead who threw for 209 yards and three TDs on Saturday and has thrown for two or more scores in eight straight games. The Ole Miss defense is also solid, as it showed on Saturday when it allowed just 86 rushing yards on 30 attempts, forced five turnovers and stopped Southeastern Louisiana on all 14 third-down attempts.
South Carolina bounced back from a tough SEC loss at Georgia and beat Florida Atlantic 38-16 on Saturday, narrowly covering as a 20½-point home favorite. The ‘Cocks gained 516 total yards on Saturday, including 287 on the ground after managing just 222 in the first two games combined. Jarvis Giles led the way with 113 yards on 11 carries and a touchdown.
The Gamecocks are 3-0 ATS this season, covering as underdogs in their first two games, both on the road. QB Stephen Garcia has piled up the yards so far with 683 passing yards, but just three TDs and two INTs.
South Carolina edged Ole Miss 31-24 last season as a two-point road ‘dog. The win snapped the Gamecocks’ four-game losing streak (2-2 ATS) to the Rebels and continued the 5-0 ATS run for the road team in this series.
Ole Miss is riding several positive ATS streaks, including 16-5 overall, 8-1 on the road, 9-2 against winning teams, 4-0 as chalk, 3-1 in September and 4-1 in SEC battles. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are on pointspread runs of 5-2 in SEC play, 6-2-1 in September games and 12-5 following an ATS win, but they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven as a home ‘dog and 0-4 ATS in their last four against winning teams.
The Rebels are on “under” streaks of 5-0 in SEC contests and 9-4 as a favorite. Meanwhile, South Carolina has stayed under the total in seven of its last nine at home, but is otherwise on “over” runs of 5-2 overall, 5-2 in SEC action and 16-3 at home against teams with winning road marks.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OLE MISS
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