Thursday's Doubleheader
By Christian Alexander
South Carolina (0-0) at N.C. State (0-0)
7:00 p.m. ( ESPN)
Carter-Finley Stadium (Natural Grass)
Sports.com Line: N.C. State -5, O/U 46
Hard to believe this will be my 10th year of handicapping on VegasInsider.com. There have certainly been some hot streaks and a few cold slumps along the way but I’ve honestly enjoyed every minute of it.
What better way to kick off my 10th season than a Thursday night doubleheader, with one of the games carrying major BCS implications. Of course, that would be when the 16th-ranked Oregon Ducks fly over to Idaho to face the 14-th ranked Boise State Broncos. But first – as was the case last year – we’ll catch a little ACC/SEC action as South Carolina visits N.C. State.
To give you a little perspective on just how much has changed in the college ranks since I started at VegasInsider, just consider the career of the “ole ball coach,” Steve Spurrier. Back in 1999, Spurrier was still comfortably at the helm of one of the most powerful programs – and offenses – in the country, at his alma-mater Florida.
Of course, as we all know, Spurrier just had to scratch that NFL itch and bolted for the Washington Redskins and big bucks in 2002. After that experiment proved to be another Daniel Snyder bust, Spurrier made his way back to the college ranks and to Columbia, S.C.
Similarly, head coach Tom O’Brien was in the midst of a very impressive run of his own - at Boston College - ten years ago. In 2006 O’Brien felt the need for change and headed to Raleigh, N.C. to take over the Wolfpack.
Florida fans such as VegasInsider’s own Brian Edwards might chime in at this point and say that besides the coach, not a whole lot has changed at Florida as the Gators are still winning a ton of games and piling up the points. Maybe there is something in the water in Gainesville because Spurrier doesn’t seem to be winning games the way he once did.
You certainly don’t think of Spurrier teams being offensively challenged but let’s face facts – South Carolina has won a lot more games with their defense over the past couple of years than with their offense. Once the coach with the golden touch when it came to producing QBs, Spurrier hasn’t had a reliable signal-caller in Columbia in years.
Maybe that will change this season. Then again, maybe it won’t.
This much is certain: South Carolina can’t lead the nation again in interceptions as they did in 2008 with 27 and possibly hope to win seven games and go bowling again. It just won’t happen.
The Gamecocks started 2008 with Tommy Beecher under center and he was intercepted by N.C. State less than three minutes into the season opener. USC ended the season in much the same way as Stephen Garcia threw four picks in a 31-10 loss to Iowa in the Outback Bowl. And as the above stat would indicate, there were plenty of interceptions in between those games.
Spurrier might have had a tough decision on his hands if a QB with any experience was returning along with Garcia. But Chris Smelley (All-name team) transferred out and Beecher graduated so the keys have been handed to Garcia.
With just five returning starters on offense and having to find a new ground game, it looks like Spurrier will again be leaning on his defense to carry the team. The good news is that LB Eric Norwood is back after passing up the NFL draft. The senior seems to have been in Columbia forever and considering he had nine sacks last year and was second on the team in tackles, Spurrier is thankful he is back.
The bad news is the rest of the defense is pretty green, including two corners who have never played a college game. Making matters worse is that suspensions will keep three defensive starters from playing against North Carolina State. DE Clifton Geathers (resisting arrest, disorderly conduct and public drunkenness), tackle Ladi Ajiboye (marijuana arrest), and CB C.C. Whitlock (arrested for trespassing at a nightclub) are all out. Those three would make an interesting episode of COPS but unfortunately won’t provide much else entertainment this Thursday night.
All that bunch will have to do is go on the road and face an N.C. State team that is just dying for a little payback after getting embarrassed by the Gamecocks 34-0 last year in Columbia.
This is certainly a different Wolfpack squad than a year ago. Unlike Spurrier, coach Tom O’Brien has found his QB in sophomore Russell Wilson. The ACC Freshman of the Year in 2008, Wilson led an offense that got better every game and ended the year on a roll, averaging 34 points in the last three games.
Like South Carolina, N.C. State also returns six starters on defense and have their share of issues on that side of the ball. O’Brien was dealt a big blow this summer when LB Nate Irving was injured in a car accident and will likely miss the season.
The difference here seems to be that Wilson and the Wolfpack appear better equipped to exploit those defensive issues than does the Gamecocks offense. Running back Toney Baker is back after sitting out two seasons due to knee surgeries and should form a nice 1-2 punch with Jamelle Eugene.
One thing is for sure, it doesn’t get any easier for Spurrier. After the opener, the Gamecocks travel to Athens to face Georgia in Week 2 and wrap up September by welcoming the No. 8 team in the nation, Ole Miss into Williams-Brice Stadium.
#16 Oregon (0-0) at #14 Boise State
10:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Bronco Stadium (Blue AstroPlay)
Sports.com Line: Boise State -4, O/U 64
I’m no programming executive at ESPN but after a 34-0 snooze fest between the two above schools to start 2008, I’m not sure why these teams were again selected to lead off 2009. Regardless, I’ll skip the appetizer and head straight for the main course because the nightcap between Oregon and Boise State should not only be the best game this week but maybe one of the best all season.
And for Boise State, it could define its entire season since it’s pretty easy to see the Broncos going 13-0 if they can get past the Ducks, especially catching the other contender in the WAC, Nevada, at home. The stats just don’t lie: Boise State is 64-2 at home in the past 10 years.
With those kind of numbers it’s easy to see why Oregon is just the first ranked opponent to visit Bronco Stadium for a regular-season game and just the third program from a Bowl Championship Series conference to do so. In short, not many programs want a taste of what Boise State is dishing out on the “Smurf Turf."
Obviously, the Broncos are certainly no stranger to success as the program has posted an undefeated regular season in three of the past five years. That said, the early hype is something new for this squad as their No. 14 preseason ranking is an all-time record. Considering that over the past seven years Boise State has ended the season in the Top 25 the five times they weren't ranked in the preseason and finished out of the Top 25 the two years they were ranked. Some may wonder if the hype is a good thing.
One thing is certain – there will be some fireworks in this game.
Oregon will have to contend with Boise State sophomore quarterback Kellen Moore, who was the WAC Freshman of the Year last season when he completed 69.4 percent of his passes. Oregon certainly remembers Moore who – as a freshman – walked into Autzen Stadium and shredded the Ducks for 386 yards and three touchdowns in a 37-32 Boise State win.
On the other side, the Broncos will have to deal with junior QB Jeremiah Masoli who started last season 5th on the depth chart but is now the man in Eugene. Masoli can burn a defense with his arm and legs – just ask Oklahoma State – and is a perfect fit for coach Chip Kelly’s spread attack. Masoili put up 364 total yards of offense to go with four touchdowns en route to the Ducks 42-31 victory over the Cowboys in the Holiday Bowl.
When Masoli doesn’t tuck it and run, he can look to speed on the outside with WR Jamere Holland or simply hand off to RB LeGarrette Blount - who rushed for 1,002 yards while splitting time with Jeremiah Johnson last season. With Johnson gone, the stage is all Blount’s and the bruising back with sneaky speed should have a big year.
Looking at overall numbers, neither team has much leadership returning as Oregon just brings back nine starters from 2008 while Boise State is just a bit better with 11 returning starters.
Both teams have questionable defenses – especially Oregon – and the Ducks will have to contend with a largely rebuilt offensive line. With all the focus on the potent offenses, this game will likely be won by the team with the defense that can make that one extra stop.
VegasInsider.com
Week 1 College Football Preview
by T.O. Whenham
January was a long, long time ago. If you believe, like I do, that college football is the best team sport there is then these last eight months have been painfully endless. Finally, though, the season is here once again, and we can enjoy all the highs and lows that this sport presents like no other.
Thursday, September 3
Oregon (+4) at Boise State - The season starts with a bang with a game between two ranked teams. Oregon seems to believe that they can win the Pac-10 this year with the explosive Jeremiah Masoli behind center. It's possible, but they need to prove that they have no holes, and this game s a good place to start. In the eyes of many, Boise State is an overrated team at this point – their current reputation based more on their name than what they can offer on the field. This game is a perfect test of that theory. There is added intrigue here as well - things got ugly when the teams met last year, so blood will be running hot right from the start.
Utah State (+20.5) at Utah - The Aggies are nothing special, but the Utes have the potential to be. They are ranked No. 19, and they need to post an impressive win here to gain the confidence of voters and start building a case that they belong higher.
Docsports.com
NCAAF: Games to Watch - Week 1
By Chris David
Thursday - Oregon at Boise State (ESPN, 10:15 p.m.)
Skinny
Arguably the best game on the board this week happens in Idaho, when No. 14 Boise State welcomes No. 16 Oregon to the "smurf turf." A lot of folks believe that if the Bronocs and head coach Chris Peterson can win this tilt, they'll have a great shot to run the table an earn a BCS berth. QB Kellen Moore leads a Boise attack that averaged 37.6 PPG last year, but the gunslinger will be without his top two receivers and starting running back this season. The Broncos' defense only gave up 12.6 PPG last year and that unit will be tested against an Oregon offense that posted 41.9 PPG in 2008. The Ducks posted 55, 65 and 42 points to close the year. QB Jeremiah Masoli returns and he's got plenty of talent around him. This game will be the first go 'round for Oregon head coach Chip Kelly. He's familiar with the program and the mastermind of the attack, having been the Ducks' offensive coordinator the past two years.
Gambling Notes
Boise State dropped Oregon 37-32 last year as a 10-point underdog in Eugene. The Broncos led 24-6 at the half and still won despite getting outscored 19-0 in the final 15 minutes. Moore was sharp in the victory, completing 24-of-36 passes for 386 yards and three touchdowns. Oregon did play with its third string QB in the second half due to injuries, yet they still managed to put up 464 yards on offense. Including this win, Boise State is still only 3-11 against Pac 10 opponents. Despite last year's loss, Oregon had won 15 in a row against the WAC dating back to 1996. The Ducks have gone 8-7 ATS during this run, and covered four in a row. Last year, the combined 69 points easily jumped 'over' the total. Thursday's number has been hovering between 63 and 64 points. Gamblers can back the Ducks with four points on the spread or look for the outright victory at a plus-160 return.
vegasinsider.com
Thursday's games
NC State covered just four of last 19 as a home favorite; they lost 34-0 to Gamecocks LY (+14), completing 5-20 passes for 49 yards. Wolfpack covered just three of last ten non-ACC games. South Carolina is 11-15 vs spread in non-SEC games since '02, 4-5-1 in last ten on road-- their SEC opener at Georgia is next week. Both teams have soph QBs and three of LY's starters on offensive line back this season.
Utah won its last 11 games vs Utah State, winning last five by average score of 44-8; Utes have new starting QB and only 12 starters back, but they're 21-12 vs spread in last 33 home games, 8-3 vs spread in last 11 games in this series. Aggies have new coach, 16 starters back- they lost last five visits here by average of 17 points. Utes won 58-10 last year.
Oregon has new coach, only nine starters back from LY; they lost six of top 10 guys on OL, but are 16-11 vs spread on road since '04. Boise St. (+10) won 37-32 in Eugene two years ago, passing for 286 yards. Ducks covered 14 of last 22 non-league games, are 9-5 in last 14 as a road dog. Boise is 10-6 as home favorite under Peterson. Neither team has senior starter on OL, but lefty soph Moore started at QB all last year.
North Texas is 8-39 SU last four years, 11-21 vs spread as road dog the last six years- they have all five starters back on OL, but have new QB, who happens to be the coach's son. Ball State has new coach, new QB and only four starters back on offense- they're 11-5 vs spread as a home favorite since '02. Mean Green has veteran OL with 103 career starts.
Troy covered seven of last nine tries as road favorite- this is same team that led 31-3 in third quarter at LSU LY, so they have talent, but they're also playing at Florida next year, could be looking ahead. Bowling Green covered six of last seven as home dog, but this is first time they've been home dog in few years. Falcons have senior QB with 25 career starts, but have only three starters back on defense, and a new coach.
Is Boise State for real?
By Sportsbook.com
Boise State is the unanimous choice to win the WAC this season and is the early season darling from the non-BCS schools to possibly pluck another BCS berth when the bids come out in December. Any BCS talk will die however if the Broncos are upset on Thursday. Over 70% of bettors at Sportsbook.com think that is a possibility, backing the Oregon Ducks as a 3-1/2 point dog.
Consider the track record of Boise State coming into the season.
Boise State has had three unbeaten regular seasons in the last five years and is 55-9 in all games since 2004. Faced with oddsmakers’ numbers just begging the sports bettor to play the other side, the Broncos are 33-25-1 against the spread in that time period.
In games played on the “Smurf Turf” blue carpet at Bronco Stadium, Boise State is 64-2 and 40-17 ATS the last decade, which includes 49 in a row during the regular season. Boise State returns a dozen starters, including quarterback Kellen Moore, who broke onto the scene last year as a freshman. In truth, Coach Chris Peterson might have a team equal to or better than the 2006 squad, which was 13-0 and knocked off Oklahoma in Fiesta Bowl.
The Oregon Ducks are not to be taken for granted just because they have a new coach in Chip Kelly. With just ten returning starters from last year’s surprising 10-3 squad, the ranking appears a trifle inflated, however three components help justify the number.
Oregon might not average 41.9 points per game this upcoming season, however, will still have ample firepower with Jeremiah Masoli at the controls. The junior quarterback is far from classic passer, but he’s accurate and is powerful runner and is listed as All-Pac 10 QB in several preseason publications. Speaking of powerful, 240-pound LeGarrette Blount is one blunt object in the open field. The architect of this high-powered offense is coach Kelly, whose been the Oregon offense coordinator. The Ducks are 27-5 ATS in first road game, including covering nine of last 10.
Sportsbook.com has Boise State listed as 3.5-point home favorite, down from opening number of 5.5, with the total having risen to 64.
This is the second game on ESPN Thursday night, which will start at 10:15 Eastern. Oregon has revenge on their minds after last year’s 37-32 home upset as 10.5-point favorites to the Broncos. Masoli told a Eugene television station during the offseason that the loss was “embarrassing” and that this year he and his team would “take it to (Boise State).”
South Carolina at North Carolina St.
South Carolina kicks off its fifth season under coach Steve Spurrier as it travels to across state lines to battle the Wolfpack as these teams open up against each other for the second straight year.
The Gamecocks began 2008 with a 34-0 rout of North Carolina State as a 14-point home favorite which propelled them to a 7-3 start (6-3 ATS). However, South Carolina fell hard from there, losing its final three games by scores of 56-6 (at Florida), 31-14 (at Clemson) and 31-10 (vs. Iowa in the Outback Bowl), never threatening to cover in any of those contests to end the year 7-6 SU and 6-6 ATS.
After getting blitzed at South Carolina to start last season, North Carolina State went on to be the best bet in college football, covering the spread in 10 of its final 11 lined games, including the last eight in a row. The Wolfpack finished the regular season with four consecutive ACC victories (4-0 ATS) before losing to Rutgers 29-23 as a seven-point underdog in the Papajohns.com Bowl.
Both teams return their starting quarterbacks from a year ago. N.C. State redshirt freshman Russell Wilson completed 54.5 percent of his passes for 1,955 yards with a remarkable 17-1 touchdown to interception ratio, and he enters this game having thrown 249 passes without getting picked off. He leads an offense that averaged 23.5 points per game overall last year, while the defense surrendered 26.3 ppg.
South Carolina’s Stephen Garcia took over the starting QB chores in the middle of last season and finished completing just 53.3 percent of his throws for 832 yards with six TDs but eight INTs. The Gamecocks put up 20.8 ppg and defensively, they gave up an average of 15.6 points in the first 10 games but 39.3 in the final three.
In addition to cashing in its final eight contests last year, N.C. State is on a 15-4 ATS roll overall. However, the Wolfpack are otherwise in pointspread slumps of 2-7-1 in non-conference play, 7-19 as a favorite, 3-11 as a home chalk since 2004 and 3-9 in September. Meanwhile, South Carolina also carries negative ATS trends of 5-11-2 overall, 2-6 on the road, 2-5 in non-conference play and 0-4 as an underdog, but it is 8-4-1 ATS as a road pup since Spurrier took over.
The over is 5-0-1 in the Gamecocks’ last six roadies, but otherwise the team is on “under” runs of 6-1 in non-conference play, 5-2 versus the ACC, 5-1-1 in September and 5-2-1 on Thursday. Likewise, N.C. State is on “under” runs of 8-3-2 in non-league action, 10-2-1 as a favorite and 7-1 on Thursday. Finally, last year’s season-opening clash between these schools stayed well under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(16) Oregon at (14) Boise State
One of the most intriguing matchups of college football’s opening weekend comes from Bronco Stadium, where No. 14 Boise State looks for its 50th straight regular-season win on the blue turf as it hosts the 16th-ranked Ducks and new coach Chip Kelly.
The Broncos started last season with 12 consecutive wins, including a 37-32 upset victory at Oregon on Sept. 20. But after steamrolling to their sixth consecutive Western Athletic Conference title and climbing to No. 9 in the polls, they failed to gain a berth in a BCS Bowl. Boise State ended up settling for the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego, where it fell 17-16 to 11th-ranked TCU, cashing as a three-point underdog to finish the year 12-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS.
In what was expected to be a rebuilding season in 2008, Oregon ended up tied for second place in the Pac-10 standings and finished 10-3 overall (7-6 ATS) in longtime coach Mike Bellotti’s final year. After losing to Boise State, the Ducks won six of their final eight games, including the last four in a row, capped by a 42-31 victory over Oklahoma State as a 2½-point underdog in the Holiday Bowl.
In last year’s meeting in Eugene, Ore., Boise State jumped out to a 37-13 lead after three quarters then withstood a furious Ducks rally to hold on for the 37-32 win as a 10½-point road underdog. The game featured 888 yards of total offense and six turnovers (four by Oregon).
The Broncos averaged 37.6 points and 440.8 yards per game last year, and they ranked third in the nation in scoring defense (12.6 ppg allowed). QB Kellen Moore, who threw for 386 yards and three TDs in the win at Oregon, is one of 12 returning starters for Boise State (six offense, six defense). Moore last year completed 69 percent of his passes for 3,486 yards, 25 TDs and 10 INTs.
Kelly was the offensive coordinator the last two seasons under Bellotti and last year guided a unit that ranked seven nationally in scoring (42 ppg) and second in rushing (280.1 ypg). Junior QB Jeremiah Masoli (57 percent, 1,744 yards, 13 TDs, 5 INTs; 718 rushing yards, 10 TDs last year) is one of just 10 returning starters for the Ducks.
Boise State cashed in its final three games last year and went 2-2-1 ATS in its five lined home games, but it is 40-17-2 ATS in its last 59 at Bronco Stadium. In fact, the Broncos have won 49 consecutive regular-season games on the Smurf Turf dating to Sept. 8, 2001, though they did lose to Boston College in the 2005 Humanitarian Bowl on their home field. Additionally, Boise is on ATS surges of 4-1-1 against the Pac-10, 5-1 on Thursday and 15-3 when laying 10 points or less.
Oregon is 8-1 in its last nine non-conference games (6-1 ATS in lined action), the lone loss coming to the Broncos last year. Also, under Bellotti, the Ducks were 13-6 ATS in its last 19 as a road ‘dog, and they’re on further pointspread runs of 13-5 in September, 4-1 against the WAC and 14-6 on artificial turf.
The Ducks are on “over” runs of 7-3-2 overall, 16-5-2 in September, 6-0 against the WAC and 6-1-1 on artificial turf. However, the under is 8-3 in Boise State’s last 11 in September and 11-4 in its last 15 non-league games. Finally, last year’s 37-32 shootout easily cleared the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Gametimepicks.com
Game of the day: Oregon at Boise State
By MATT JOSEPHS
Oregon Ducks at Boise State Broncos (-3.5, 63.5)
Great Expectations
If Charles Dickens was alive today, he’d be using the Boise State Broncos as inspiration for an updated version of this classic book. The Broncos enter the season No. 14 in the AP poll, which is the highest preseason ranking in school history.
Some are saying that BSU could go undefeated and be a BCS bowl buster with the schedule it has. Phil Steele lists the Broncos’ slate 117th overall in terms of ease, with road trips to Tulsa and Fresno State representing their toughest games away from the smurf turf.
The squad returns six starters on offense including second team All-WAC quarterback Kellen Moore.
The sophomore threw for 3,486 yards last season with 25 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. Moore threw for 386 yards and three touchdowns last season against the Ducks in Oregon.
Boise State supporters will be looking for a bigger contribution from the ground game. The unit earned just 38 yards on 35 carries in last year’s game.
Betting NCAAF Week 1
The unknown
Oregon will be playing its first game under new head coach Chip Kelly who moved from the offensive coordinator position. Kelly’s offense produced 41.9 points per game and had a 7-4-2 over/under mark last season, but the group returns only four starters.
Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli threw for 1,744 yards and 13 touchdowns last year. He started the last 10 games of the season and was one of three to take snaps under center. He’ll rely on help from 1,000-yard rusher LeGarrette Blount along with top wideout targets Jeff Maehl and Ed Dickson to keep up the offence moving.
In the trenches
First-team All-WAC defensive end Ryan Winterswyk is Boise State’s only returning starter on defense. He’ll be squaring off against an O-line returning one starter and four of its top 10 on the 2008 depth chart.
Senior Will Tukuafu is Oregon’s lone returning starter on the defensive line. He will have a tough time penetrating the right side of the Boise State line with junior Kevin Sapien and Sophomore Nate Potter returning.
Ducks talking a big game
Oregon has had plenty of time to focus on avenging its loss last year to the Broncos. Masoli, who left the game due to a concussion, called the loss “embarrassing” and predicted that the Ducks would “take it to them” this year. Tailback LeGarrette Blount told Sports Illustrated that they “owe [Boise State] a (butt)-whuppin.”
The game had a chippiness to it with both teams picking up late hits. Oregon was especially angry about one that injured Masoli and forced him to leave. Boise State safety Jeron Johnson was ejected from the game because of another late hit.
Line movement
Boise State opened up as a 6-point favorite with the spread dropping down to 4.5 before briefly going to 5.
Boise State is now a 4 or 4.5-point favorite depending on the book you use.
The total opened up at 60.5 and has crept up to 64
Trends
The Oregon Ducks are 8-1 in season openers with six of those wins coming against BCS schools. The team is also 2-0 in the last three years as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. September has been a kind month to the Ducks with the team going 6-3 in their last three seasons.
Boise State is 3-11 against Pac-10 schools. The Broncos are 61-35 as a favorite since 1992 and 42-18 against the spread at home.
Weather
The weather for Thursday night’s game is calling for an overnight low of 64 degrees and no chance of rain
What Bettors Need to Know
By DAVID JONES
South Carolina Gamecocks at North Carolina State Wolfpack (-5, 46.5)
The one-time rivals (met annually from 1968 to 1991) are squaring off again after last year's 34-0 victory by the Gamecocks in Columbia.
The fortunes of South Carolina (7-6, 5-6-1 ATS in 2008) appear to be squarely on the shoulders of sophomore quarterback Stephen Garcia. The departures of WR Kenny Mckinley and TE Jared Cook won't help an offense (six returning starters) that led the nation in interceptions (27) a year ago. On defense (five returning starters), two starting defensive linemen have been suspended for the Gamecocks but the unit has some depth up front.
For North Carolina State (6-7, 9-2-1 ATS in 2008) and second-year head coach Tom O' Brien, the mission is to build on last year's strong finish. Sophomore QB Russell Wilson (17 TDs, 1 INT in 2008) keyed NC State's surge with a stellar freshman campaign. Senior RB Toney Baker (led team in rushing in 2006) has worked his way back to the starting lineup after missing most of the last two years. Like the offense, the defense returns seven starters from last year.
Line movement
The Wolfpack opened as 4-point favorites with a total of 44.5. North Carolina State has moved up to a 5-point choice with the total now up to 46.5.
Trends
Steve Spurrier is 28-22 (24-20-2 ATS) at South Carolina with a 4-0 (2-2 ATS) mark in season openers.
Weather
The forecast calls for a high of 79 degrees with a 20 percent chance of rain in Raleigh, NC.
Troy Trojans at Bowling Green Falcons (+7, 56)
Troy (8-5, 7-5 ATS in 2008) returns seven starters on offense after ranking second in the conference in total offense in 2008. Senior QB Levi Brown (15 TDs, 3 INTS in 2008), 1,000 yard back DuJuan Harris and wideout Jerrel Jernigan form a dynamic trio for head coach Larry Blakeney. The top defense in the Sun Belt in 2008 returns six starters but none in the secondary.
Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Dave Clawson is set to debut as head coach of the Falcons (6-6, 7-4 ATS in 2008). He has eight returning starters on offense to work with, including All-MAC QB Tyler Sheehan (43 TDs, 20 INTs in last two seasons). Clawson is expected to add a little more running to the offense to aid Sheehan. It could be a long night on defense (second in MAC in total defense in 2008) with only three starters back in the fold.
Line movement
Troy began as a 6-point road favorite with the total at 55.5. The Trojans are now favored by a touchdown while the total is up a half a point to 56.
Trends
Troy is 22-13 ATS in the last three years. Bowling Green is 15-8 ATS in the last two years with opening victories at Minnesota (2007) and Pittsburgh (2008) as 14-point underdogs. The Trojans are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games while the Falcons are just 2-14 ATS in their last 16 home games.
Weather
The forecast calls for a high of 78 degrees in Bowling Green, OH.
North Texas Mean Green at Ball State Cardinals (-16.5, 59.5)
North Texas (1-11, 4-8 ATS in 2008) head coach Todd Dodge will turn to his son Riley, a redshirt freshman, to take over the starting quarterback duties in 2009. The coach-QB duo won a state high school title in Texas in 2006. While solid RB Cam Montgomery (928 yards, 9 TDs in 2008) is one of eight returning starters on offense, WR Casey Fitzgerald has departed after leading the nation in receptions in each of the last two years. The defense (last in the nation in total and scoring defense in 2008) can't get any worse and has nine returning starters.
After serving as the team's offensive coordinator the past four seasons, Stan Parrish steps into the head coaching spot in 2009. Ball State (12-2, 8-4-1 ATS in 2008) will also go with a redshirt freshman at quarterback to open the season after the departure of standout QB Nate Davis. Senior RB MiQuale Lewis (school record 1,736 rush yards in 2008) will take some of the pressure off of QB Kelly Page as one of four returning offensive starters. An average defense from a year ago brings back seven starters.
Line movement
The home squad opened up as a 19.5-point choice with a total of 59.5. While the total has held up, the Cardinals are down to 16.5-point favorites.
Trends
North Texas is 7-40 (17-29 ATS) since 2005. Ball State is 19-9-1 ATS in its last 29 booked games.
Weather
The forecast calls for a high of 80 degrees in Muncie, IN.
Utah State Aggies at Utah Utes (-20.5, 52)
Former Utes defensive coordinator Gary Anderson is now in charge of the Utah State (3-9, 7-4-1 ATS in 2008) program. Ten starters are back on offense, including versatile QB Diondre Borel (led team in passing and rushing in 2008). The defense (seven returning starters) will need the expertise of Anderson after allowing 35 points per game a year ago.
With a pair of perfect campaigns over the last five years, Utah (13-0, 8-3-1 ATS in 2008) will look to gain some more national respect in 2009. Head coach Kyle Whittingham will not announce his new starting QB prior to kickoff but indications point to JuCo transfer Terrance Cain stepping into the big void left by previous signal-caller Brian Johnson. While there are only four returning starters on offense, a solid defense has seven starters back in the fold but defensive end Koa Misi is on the shelf with an injury.
Line movement
The Utes opened as 23.5-point favorites with a total of 52.5. Utah is down to a 20.5-point choice with the total now at 52.
Trends
With the exception of consecutive wins by Utah State in 1996-97, the Utes have won every meeting in the annual series since 1988. Utah has won by an average score of 44-8 against the Aggies in their last five meetings. Whittingham is 37-14 (25-20-4 ATS) as head coach of the Utes. Utah State is 15-55 since 2003.
Weather
The forecast calls for a high of 93 degrees in Salt Lake City, UT.
Tips and Trends
South Carolina at North Carolina State
South Carolina: South Carolina is looking to win its 10th straight opening game. The Gamecocks, though, are just 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 openers. South Carolina shut out North Carolina State, 34-0, in last year’s season-opener. The Gamecocks’ defense was dominant early, but fell apart at the end of last year surrendering an average of 39.3 points in their last three games. From that unit, the Gamecocks lost their No. 3, 4 and 5 tacklers plus 100 career secondary starts. They also won’t have suspended Clifton Geathers, their best defensive lineman. They do have All-SEC linebacker Eric Norwood. Sophomore quarterback Stephen Garcia remains a work in progress. The Gamecocks need to step up their pass protection. Only Arkansas allowed more sacks than South Carolina in the SEC. The Gamecocks hope to improve a ground attack that ranked No. 112 with Brian Maddox and Jarvis Giles.
South Carolina is 2-6 against the number in its last eight road contests.
The Over is 5-0-1 in the Gamecocks’ past six away games.
Key Injuries - Defensive linemen Clifton Geathers and Ladi Ajiboye are both suspended.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20
North Carolina State (-5, O/U 46): The Wolfpack are riding a little momentum having won their last four regular-season games to reach a bowl game after opening with two victories in their first eight contests. North Carolina State is 7-0-1 against the spread in its last eight games. Sophomore Russell Wilson became the first freshman to be named a first-team All-Atlantic Coast Conference quarterback. He led the ACC with a passing efficiency rating of 133.9. Wilson had a remarkable 17-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has thrown 249 consecutive passes without an interception, just 21 shy of the conference record. North Carolina State hasn’t been good in a favorite’s role, though, going 7-19 against the spread the past 26 times it was chalk. The Wolfpack also will be without their top defensive player probably for the season. Linebacker Nate Irving suffered a broken leg and punctured a lung in a car accident in June.
The Under is 10-2-1 in the Wolfpack’s last 13 games as a favorite.
North Carolina State is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 non-conference matchups.
Key Injuries - Linebacker Nate Irving (leg) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Oregon at Boise State
Oregon: The 16th-ranked Ducks open the Chip Kelly era in a huge revenge spot. The Ducks were upset as 10 ½-point home favorites by Boise State last year, 37-32. Now the Ducks want to end Boise State’s 49-game home win streak. Kelly was Oregon’s offensive coordinator last year when the Ducks produced 41.9 points per game average and went 7-4-2 to the over. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli threw for 1,744 yards and accounted for 13 touchdowns last season after starting the last 10 games. He was knocked out of last year’s Boise game, suffering a concussion. The Ducks had the No. 2 rushing offense in the country last season, averaging 280.1 yards per game. Jeremiah Johnson is gone, but LeGarrette Blount returns after rushing for 1,002 yards and scoring 17 touchdowns. Oregon averaged 54 points in winning its last three games, including beating Oklahoma State in the Holiday Bowl, 42-31.
Oregon has covered 13 of its last 18 games in September.
The Ducks are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 games as a road ‘dog.
Key Injuries - Wide receiver Rory Cavaille (shoulder) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 30
Boise State (-3, O/U 64): Boise State is anxious to keep its home win streak alive and justify its No. 14 ranking, the Broncos’ highest preseason ranking in school history. The Broncos return six starters from last year’s 12-1 squad, including quarterback Kellen Moore. He threw for 3,486 yards and 25 touchdowns last season with just 10 interceptions. Moore burned Oregon for 386 yards and three touchdowns last year as the Broncos built a 37-13 lead in their 37-32 victory. Boise State was third in the nation in scoring defense, holding foes to 12.6 points per game last year. The Broncos return six starters on both offense and defense, including Moore and cornerback Kyle Wilson, the Western Athletic Conference preseason defensive player of the year. Wilson picked off five passes last season, while also returning three punts for touchdowns. The total currently is up to 64 after opening 60 ½.
The Broncos are 42-18 ATS at home since 1992.
The Under has cashed in 11 of the last 15 Boise State non-conference games.
Key Injuries - Defensive lineman Greg Grimes (leg) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (Side of the Day)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS HERE
SportsPic
The College Football season kicks-off Thursday with nine on the card including Oregon at Boise State. Broncos off a 12-1 (7-3-2 ATS) campaign amassing 38 PPG along with the Nations third best defense allowing 12.6 PPG will be tested in the opener against offensive juggernaut Oregon. The Ducks (10-3, 7-6 ATS) leading the Pac-10 in scoring and overall offense last year put up 41.9 PPG behind a well balance offense that rushed for 280.3 yards/game and chucked 204.8 yards via air-ways. Nipped 37-32 in Eugene as 10 point favorites by BSU last season revenge looms large for Oregon. However, doing it on the blue turf of Bronco Stadium, where Boise State has won fifty consecutive games (31-14-1 ATS) and 61-of-62 (38-15-1 ATS) the past 10 years will be tough. Still, with Broncos strongest part of it's defense being the secondary, ranked 34th in the nation against the pass expect Ducks to give BSU a huge dose of it's running game behind RB LeGarrette Blount (1003 RYG, 17 TD) and the versatile QB Jeremiah Masoli who ran 127 times for 718 yards, 10 TD's last year. Trends of interest: Ducks 11-5 ATS their last 16 as a road underdog, 6-2 ATS their last 8 non-conference games. Broncos 15-3 ATS last 18 as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, 4-1-1 ATS last 6 against PAC-10 foes.