Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Malone Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Warhawks listed as 2-point favorites versus the Red Wolves, while the game's total has not yet been posted.
Corey Leonard had 216 yards passing and two TDs to lead Arkansas State but it was not enough as they lost 24-21 to Iowa in Week 5.
The Red Wolves did cover the 21-point spread, while the final score played to a push.
Louisiana-Monroe took a 48-35 win over Florida International at Malone Stadium in Week 5.
UL-Monroe covered as a 6.5-point home favorite while the final score eclipsed the 55.5-point total.
Current streak:
Arkansas State has lost 3 straight games.
Louisiana-Monroe has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Arkansas State: 1-3 SU, 1-2 ATS
Louisiana-Monroe: 3-2 SU, 3-1 ATS
Arkansas State most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on grass are 1-9
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 5-5
Louisiana-Monroe most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arkansas State's last 10 games on the road
Arkansas State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Louisiana-Monroe
Arkansas State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Arkansas State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Monroe is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arkansas State
Louisiana-Monroe is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Louisiana-Monroe is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Louisiana-Monroe is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arkansas State
Next up:
Arkansas State home to Florida International, Saturday, October 24
Louisiana-Monroe at Kentucky, Saturday, October 24
Arkansas State (1-3, 1-2 ATS) at Louisiana-Monroe (3-2, 3-1 ATS)
The Sun Belt Conference gets some rare national exposure as Arkansas State heads south for a league battle with the Warhawks at Malone Stadium.
The Red Wolves bring a three-game SU losing streak to Monroe, La., though they put a big scare into then-No. 13 and undefeated Iowa 10 days ago, losing 24-21 and covering easily as a 21-point road underdog. Arkansas State trailed 14-0 for nearly the entire first half and got outgained 420-296, but it picked off Iowa QB Richard Stanzi twice, returning one for a second-half touchdown. During their three-game losing skid, the Red Wolves have been outgained by margins of 212, 202 and 124, and they haven’t defeated a Division I-A school this season.
UL-Monroe is coming off consecutive Sun Belt victories over Florida Atlanta (27-25 as a 3½-point road underdog) and Florida International (48-35 as a 6½-point home chalk). In the rout of FIU on Oct. 3, the Warhawks piled up 577 total yards (304 rushing) and surrendered 391 (77 rushing).
The home team has won the last four meetings in this rivalry, but Louisiana-Monroe got the cash all four times, all as an underdog. Last year, the Warhawks went to Arkansas State and fell 37-29, but barely covered as a 14½-point underdog. In fact, the pup has covered in nine straight meetings between these schools since 1998, with six outright upsets. Also, the visitor is 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes.
Although they easily got the money at Iowa, Arkansas State is still in ATS funks of 2-9 overall, 1-7 on the road, 1-6 in Sun Belt play, 2-8 after a bye, 1-4 in October and 10-26-1 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, UL-Monroe has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 after a bye, but otherwise, the Warhawks are on impressive ATS runs of 8-3 overall in lined action, 3-0 at home, 21-8-1 in conference action, 10-4-1 in October, 9-3-1 after a SU win and 5-0 when facing opponents with a losing record.
Arkansas State is on “under” runs of 12-3-1 overall in lined action, 12-3-1 on the highway, 9-2-1 when playing on grass and 3-1-1 in October. On the flip side, Louisiana-Monroe carries “over” trends of 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 5-1 in October and 18-7-1 in games following a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISIANA-MONROE
Gametimepicks.com
Game of the day: Arkansas State at UL Monroe
By Marc Lawrence
Arkansas State at UL Monroe (-2, 54)
Line movement
Oddsmakers opened this game as a pick 'em but the Red Wolves have been bet up to -2.
Weather update
Warm temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, under cloudy skies, are expected at kickoff. Showers and thunderstorms are likely with an 80 percent chance of rain.Southeast winds around 5 mph.
Measuring sticks
ASU – picked to finish second in the Sun Belt this season - is just 1-3, but its losses have come against Nebraska, Troy and Iowa. The Hawkeyes narrowly held off the Red Wolves, 24-21, 10 days ago.
Arkansas State ranks 48th in the country in rushing, 98th in passing, 46th in offensive scoring, 81st in total offense and is tied for 18th inside the red zone.
The ASU pass defense is its Achilles heel, ranking 107th in the country, allowing 266.5 yards per game. They have yielded 1027 yards on 82-for-117 and nine touchdowns over the last three games.
Monroe has a chance to improve to 3-0 in Sun Belt play, which would be big considering the team was picked to finish seventh in the league.
The Warhawks bring a double-deuce offense into this contest, averaging 208.6 yards rushing and 210 passing. They are averaging 37 points per game in Sun Belt play. ULM leads the Sun Belt in scoring and tallied 577 yards of offense against FIU in its last game.
Player profiles
Arkansas State senior QB Corey Leonard was 22-for-40 for 216 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in the three-point loss at Iowa.
It prompted Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz to comment, "That quarterback is their catalyst, Leonard is a heck of a football player."
Leonard has 44 career touchdown passes, leaving him just five shy of the school record.
ASU RB Reggie Arnold is bidding to become only the eighth 1-A player ever with four straight 1,000-yard seasons. Arnold has only had 74 yards on 22 carries the past two games and needs to produce more than that to balance his team's offense. He is still on pace for 1132 yards in the 12-game schedule.
Warhawks’ defensive end Alex Carrington, the preseason defensive player of the year in the Sun Belt, has just 11 tackles in four games, including a single sack.
ULM’s running game has improved vastly and QB Trey Revell is playing with a lot of confidence. The junior has thrown for more than 1,000 yards and four touchdowns, and has rushed for 185 yards and three touchdowns. His running ability adds another dimension to the offense that features strong skill players. Equally impressive is the fact ULM has given up just five sacks this season.
Junior RB Frank Goodin leads ULM with 461 yards rushing and eight touchdowns while senior WR Darrell McNeal leads ULM with 22 receptions and four touchdowns.
Coaches chorus
ULM coach Charlie Weatherbie on tonight’s game: "It's always been a very close football game, it seems. I'm not sure there has ever been a blowout one way or the other. I would expect no different in this ballgame. I think both teams are very evenly matched athletically, and I compliment Arkansas State on how they played Iowa. I thought they played very, very well and had a chance to win the game."
Weatherbie went on to elaborate, "It's a very big game for us. It's step No. 3 in the Sun Belt race. It's going to be one of those games that comes down to who executes the best and whose fundamentals are better."
The bottom line
Monroe is 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS the last four meetings in this series, with the home team winning all four contests.
ASU is 12-2 ATS in games off back-to-back losses.
ARKANSAS ST (1 - 3) at LA MONROE (3 - 2)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA MONROE is 2-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
LA MONROE is 1-1 straight up against ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST at LA MONROE
ARKANSAS ST: 0-6 ATS on turf
LA MONROE: 6-3 ATS vs. LA Monroe
ARKANSAS STATE vs. LOUISIANA-MONROE
Arkansas State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Arkansas State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Monroe is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arkansas State
Louisiana-Monroe is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arkansas State
Tips & Trends
Arkansas State at Louisiana Monroe
Arkansas State: Arkansas State: Arkansas State is 1-3, but the Red Wolves have faced strong competition. They are one of the most battle-tested teams in the Sun Belt Conference. Arkansas State lost at Nebraska (38-9) and played tough against Troy (30-27) and Iowa on the road (24-21). The Red Wolves opened the season blanking Mississippi Valley State, 61-0. Arkansas State is giving up a respectable 3.4 yards per rush. The Red Wolves rank 25th in the country in run defense. Red Wolves quarterback Corey Leonard has thrown for 666 yards and four touchdowns with one interception. Reggie Arnold leads Arkansas State in rushing with 283 yards and seven touchdowns. The Red Wolves’ three-point loss to Iowa was the only time they’ve covered in their last eight road games. The under has cashed in eight of Arkansas State’s last 10 road trips. The Red Wolves are 2-8 against the spread following a bye.
Top Trends
Arkansas State is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
The Red Wolves are 12-3-1 Under in their last 16 games.
Key Injuries
None
PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (Side of the Day)
Louisiana Monroe (-1.5, O/U 54): The Warhawks are 2-0 in Sun Belt play having edged Florida Atlantic, 27-25, and Florida International 48-35 in their last game. Louisiana Monroe quarterback Trey Revell was 19-for-35 throwing for 273 yards and a touchdown. The Warhawks out-rushed Florida International, 304-70, with Frank Goodin accounting for 163 yards on 19 carries. Louisiana Monroe rates 28th in rush defense allowing an average of 107.4 yards on the ground. Revell has thrown for 1,041 yards while accounting for seven touchdowns. The Warhawks have faced stiff competition, losing on the road 59-20 to Texas and 38-14 to Arizona State. The Warhawks have won four of their last five home games. They are 5-1 against the spread in their last six meetings versus Arkansas State. However, the Warhawks have lost five of the past seven times to the Red Wolves. The favorite has failed to cover the last nine times in the series
Top Trends
The Under is 11-5-1 in the Warhawks’ last 17 games versus a team with a losing record.
The Over has cashed in 5 of Louisiana Monroe’s last seven games.
Key Injuries
None
PROJECTED SCORE: 30