Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Troy Trojans
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and the Troy Trojans will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Movie Gallery Veterans Stadium.
Middle Tennessee took a 37-21 win over North Texas at Fouts Field in Week 4.
MTSU covered as 6-point road favorites while the final score played OVER the 56.5-point total.
Troy scratched by Arkansas State for a 30-27 victory at ASU Stadium in Week 4.
Troy covered as a 3-point road underdog while the final score played OVER the 51-point total.
Current streak:
Middle Tennessee has won 3 straight games.
Troy has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Middle Tennessee: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
Troy: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
Middle Tennessee most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on turf are 7-3
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 4-6
Troy most recently:
When playing in October are 9-1
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Middle Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Troy
Middle Tennessee is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Middle Tennessee's last 8 games on the road
Middle Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Troy's last 5 games when playing Middle Tennessee
Troy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Middle Tennessee
Troy is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Middle Tennessee
Next up:
Middle Tennessee home to Mississippi State, Saturday, October 17
Troy at Florida International, Saturday, October 17
Middle Tennessee St. (3-1 SU and ATS) at Troy (2-2 SU and ATS)
Middle Tennessee State shoots for its fourth consecutive SU and ATS victory when it travels to Troy, Ala., for a Sun Belt Conference clash with the Trojans at Movie Gallery Stadium.
The Blue Raiders got drubbed 37-14 at Clemson as an 18½-point road ‘dog to open their campaign, but they’ve since ridden a hot offense to three straight wins and covers over Memphis (31-14 at home), Maryland (32-31 on the road) and North Texas (37-21 on the road).
Troy began the season with a two ugly non-conference road losses, falling 31-14 at Bowling Green as a seven-point chalk and 56-6 to top-ranked Florida as a 36½-point ‘dog. However, the Trojans rebounded with a pair of Sun Belt victories over UAB (27-14 as a six-point home chalk) and Arkansas State (30-27 as a 2½-point road underdog).
Troy is on a 3-0 SU and ATS roll against the Blue Raiders, including a 31-17 rout as a six-point road chalk in last year’s season opener for both teams and a 45-7 thrashing as a 13-point home choice in 2007. The favorite has cashed in six of seven meetings this decade, with the visitor going 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four.
The SU winner is 7-0 ATS in Middle Tennessee’s last seven overall, 7-0 ATS in Troy’s last seven overall and 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in this rivalry.
The Blue Raiders are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 12-3 when playing in October, 4-1 after a SU win and 8-3-1 following a spread-cover, but they’re also in pointspread ruts of 2-8-1 in Sun Belt games, 0-4 after a bye week and 2-5 as a road pup.
The Trojans are on ATS surges of 7-3 at home, 4-1 in conference, 4-1 in October, 6-2 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, 13-5 after a SU victory and 4-0 after a bye.
Middle Tennessee carries nothing but “over” trends, including 5-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 6-0 as a road pup, 4-0 in October and 4-1 in Sun Belt action. Conversely, the under is 4-0 in Troy’s last four at home (all as a favorite), 5-1 in its last six as a chalk, 6-1-1 in its last eight in October and 8-0-1 in its last nine after a bye. Finally, the last four series clashes between these schools have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TROY and UNDER
MIDDLE TENN ST (3 - 1) at TROY (2 - 2)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TROY is 2-0 against the spread versus MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
TROY is 2-0 straight up against MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIDDLE TENN ST at TROY
MIDDLE TENN ST: 11-1 Over off DD conference win
TROY: 7-0 ATS if they had 3+ turnovers last game
MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. TROY
Middle Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Middle Tennessee is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Troy's last 5 games at home
Game of the day: Middle Tennessee State at Troy
By Marc Lawrence
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders at Troy Trojans
The Sun Belt Conference takes center stage Tuesday night when defending champion Troy (2-2, 1-0) hosts Middle Tennessee State (3-1, 1-0) at the Movie Gallery Veterans Stadium.
Troy opened a 5.5-point favorite and has moved to –6.5 since.
Weather
Warm temperatures in the low 70s are expected at kickoff under cloudy skies with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. South winds around 5 mph.
Tale of the tape
Both teams are tied at 1-0 in the conference standings, one win behind league leader Louisiana Monroe (2-0).
After opening the 2009 season with back-to-back losses at Bowling Green and at Florida, the Trojans have bounced back with a pair of wins, including a 30-27 upset at Arkansas State. They’ve also put up over 500 yards of offense in each of the last two games.
Troy has won the conference title three straight years, going 6-1 in the Sun Belt each season.
The Blue Raiders have won and covered each of their last three games and are now 3-1 straight up and against the spread on the season following a 23-point loss at Clemson to start the campaign.
MTSU is off to its best start since going 5-0 in 2001 when it earned a share of the Sun Belt title with North Texas. The Blue Raiders have a plus-five turnover margin, and have forced 13 turnovers.
Who’s who
Troy QB Levi Brown is the leading contender for Sun Belt Player of the Year honors. The senior signal-caller has thrown for 1,097 yards, five touchdowns and completed 63.7 percent of his passes. Brown is a big quarterback with a big arm.
Brown’s main target is junior college transfer Tebiarus Gill. He leads Troy with 23 receptions and two touchdowns has been an immediate impact player.
Middle Tennessee QB Dwight Dasher has thrown for 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns with five interceptions. The junior has also rushed for more than 250 yards and three touchdowns.
The Trojans have six sacks and 26 quarterback hurries in four games. Opponents have just nine quarterback hurries.
No offense taken
The Blue Raiders picked up offensive coordinator Tony Frankiln this season after his brief tenure with Auburn last year.
Franklin’s spread offense helped power Troy to conference titles during his stay with the Trojans in 2006 and 2007.
Coaches speak
Troy coach Larry Blakeney realizes the importance of tonight’s game. "It's a conference game from a national showcase. It will be fun to watch if you've got nothing to do with either team."
MTSU coach Rick Stockstill likes the way his team has played. "We've played four emotion games. I wish we had played better at Clemson, but I'm real proud of the way we've played the last three weeks."
The history book says
Troy has won and covered each of the last three meetings in this series.
The Trojans are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS on weekdays during the regular season since joining the Sun Belt in 2004
The Blue Raiders are 4-7 SU and 4-5 ATS on weekdays during the regular season including 1-4 SU and 0-4 ATS of late.
Week 6
Tuesday's game
Favorites covered five of last six Middle Tennessee-Troy games, with Blue Raiders losing two of last three visits here. MTSU won last three games, scoring 31-32-37 points- they're +7 in turnovers last three games, with nine takeaways in last two, but this is their third straight road game. Trojans won last two games, scoring 27-30 points. Blue Raiders are 5-8 vs spread in last 13 games as road dog. Troy is 6-3 as a home favorite
Tips and Trends
Middle Tennessee State at Troy
Middle Tennessee State: Middle Tennessee State has won and covered its last three games after an opening 23-point loss to Clemson, but is getting little respect on the betting line. Early money has been on favored Troy in this Sun Belt Conference matchup. Troy opened 5 ½-point favorites. The Blue Raiders haven’t started this well since going 5-0 in 2001. Middle Tennessee State has forced 13 turnovers. Quarterback Dwight Dasher has thrown for more than 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns, while being intercepted five times. The junior also has rushed for more than 250 yards and scored three touchdowns on the ground. The Blue Raiders have failed to cover the past three times they’ve met Troy, the defending Sun Belt champions. Middle Tennessee State has failed to cover the past four times when playing a regular-season game during a weekday. The Blue Raiders have covered in 12 of their past 15 October games.
Middle Tennessee State is 2-8-1 in its last 11 Sun Belt games.
The Over has cashed the past 6 times the Blue Raiders have been a road underdog.
Key Injuries - Running back Phillip Tanner (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24
Troy (-6.5): Troy opened the season with back-to-back road losses against Bowling Green and Florida. The Trojans still may be a little undervalued because of those defeats, although they’ve rebounded to even their record at 2-2 by knocking off Alabama-Birmingham 27-14 and Arkansas State on the road 30-27 as a short underdog. The Trojans have put up more than 500 yards in offense during each of those victories. Troy has been the class of the Sun Belt winning the league title each of the last three seasons. Quarterback Levi Brown is a top contender for conference player of the year honors. The senior has thrown for 1,097 yards and five touchdowns, while completing 63.7 percent of his passes. Brown’s main target is Tebiarus Gill, who leads the Trojans with 23 receptions. Since joining the Sun Belt in 2004, Troy is 7-1 straight-up and 6-2 against the spread when playing on a weekday.
The Trojans have covered 7 of their last 10 home games.
The Under is 10-4 in Troy’s past 14 Sun Belt games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (Side of the Day)