Middle Tenn. at Arkansas State: What Bettors Need to Know
By David Payne
It wasn’t pretty the last time Middle Tennessee showed up on Tuesday night football. Troy hammered the Blue Raiders 42-13 on Oct. 5.
Middle Tennessee (3-4, 2-1 Sun Belt) is expected to perform better this Tuesday, when the Blue Raiders head to Arkansas State (3-5, 3-2 Sun Belt) hoping to stay alive in the conference race.
Blue Raider senior quarterback Dwight Dasher was making his first start of the season in the loss to Troy. Dasher was suspended the first four games of the season after allegedly accepting a $1,500 loan from an Air Force veteran to play poker. Dasher was rusty against Troy and the following week in a loss to Georgia Tech. But the talented dual-threat quarterback, who was the conference’s preseason offensive player of the year, is coming off his best game of the season in a 38-10 win over Louisiana-Monroe.
Dasher threw four touchdown passes in the Blue Raiders’ 38-14 win over Arkansas State last season. Middle Tennessee outgained the Red Wolves 427-220 in the win.
Arkansas State is much more explosive on offense this year. The Red Wolves are coming off a 37-16 whipping of Florida Atlantic. They feature a potent passing attack, led by quarterback Ryan Alpin. The sophomore already has thrown for 2,000 yards with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Alpin and the offense will need to have a big night to make up for a porous defense. The Red Wolves are ranked 116th in the nation in total defense.
Turnovers, as always, will be a key, and that’s an advantage for the Red Wolves. Middle Tennessee is last in the nation in turnover margin. The Blue Raiders have turned it over 21 times, while collecting only seven turnovers.
The Blue Raiders have won seven straight games in November.
The line
Middle Tennessee opened as a 1.5-point road favorite. You could find it at -1 at some outlets Monday night, but most books still have the Blue Raiders as 1.5-point favorite.
The Blue Raiders are 6-1 ATS as road favorites under coach Rick Stockstill. The Red Wolves are 8-5 ATS as a home underdog under coach Steve Roberts.
The favorite has covered in the last seven meetings
The total
The total opened at 57.5 on Monday night and was immediately bet up to 58.5.
Rain is forecast throughout the day in Jonesboro, Ark., with breezy, cool conditions expected at night.
Arkansas State is averaging 28.88 and surrendering 30.38 points per game. Middle Tennessee is averaging 27 and allowing 27 points per game.
The last three meetings between the two teams have averaged 42.6 points.
The under is 21-10-1 in Arkansas State’s last 32 games.
Injuries
Middle Tennessee senior starting offensive tackle Mike Williams is out for at least the first half of Tuesday’s game, after being ejected from the Louisiana-Monroe game.
Arkansas State is reporting no significant injuries.
Tips and Trends
Middle Tennessee St Blue Raiders at Arkansas St Red Wolves
Blue Raiders: (-1.5, O/U 58.5) MTSU enters Tuesday’s matchup with just three wins on the season, which is quite a disappointment compared to early season projections. After a four-game suspension of QB, Dwight Dasher, the Blue Raiders have struggled to gain consistency. After putting up over 2700 yards passing last season, Dasher has just 564 in 3 games this season. He’s also been plagued with turnovers since his return, throwing 6 interceptions in those 3 games. With a good chance at the Conference Title, the importance of this game is high for MTSU. They have the luxury of knowing that they have dominated the series of late, covering 8 of their last 10 against Arkansas State, including 2 of their last 3 in Arkansas. In years past, Middle Tennessee has had no problem scoring on the Red Wolves, putting up 24 points or more in 6 of their last 7 contests.
Middle Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arkansas State.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Middle Tennessee's last 7 games on the road.
Key Injuries - OL Mike Williams is out (suspension) for the 1st half.
Projected Score: 31 (OVER – Total of The Day)
Red Wolves: Arkansas State has just three wins this season, but all three of them have come in the Sun Belt Conference. They sit just one game behind Troy in the conference standings. With only four games remaining, a win Tuesday night is especially important in not only the conference race, but the sprint toward bowl eligibility as well. Quarterback, Ryan Aplin is the key to the Red Wolves’ success. He’s already thrown for over 2000 yards this season, and has contributed in the running game with 7 TD’s on the ground. In order to get a win Tuesday night, the Red Wolves will have to vastly improve defensively. Arkansas State has given up 30 points, or more, in each of their five losses. Specifically, they’ll need to limit MTSU QB, Dwight Dasher, who put up 336 total yards in last year’s 38-14 win against Arkansas State. Arkansas State is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against MTSU, but have won 14 of their last 19 home games SU.
Red Wolves are 1-13 SU last 14 games as an Underdog.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arkansas State's last 6 games when playing Middle Tennessee.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 34
Middle Tennessee State at Arkansas State Preview
By: Jeff Mattingly
Middle Tennessee State gained new life in the Sun Belt Conference race due to Troy’s loss last week to Louisiana Monroe and could claim a share of the title by winning out or win the championship outright if another team upends the Trojans. The Blue Raiders have won six of their past seven games against Arkansas State, but lost in 2008 in its last trip to Jonesboro, Arkansas. Head coach Rick Stockstill will be leading his team to its 13th mid-week game under his direction, posting a dismal 3-9 mark in those contests. It’s important to point out that the squad has won seven consecutive games in November over the last three seasons. The team is 8-8 ATS on the road over the past three seasons.
The Blue Raiders have had a major problem in terms of turnovers this season and have scored just 17 points off of them this season, while opponents have scored 82 points off their miscues. Since the team lost to Memphis in September, 13 of the opposition’s 20 scoring drives have begun on Middle Tennessee’s side of the field. Quarterback Dwight Dasher must be protective with the football in his ability to exploit defenses by either passing or running. He is the first conference player to amass 4,000 passing yards and 2,000 rushing yards in a career. The team is averaging 237.0 yards passing in the last nine meetings, while the Red Wolves are gaining just 161.7 through the air.
Arkansas State enters with a 3-5 overall mark and 3-2 record in conference play and will be hosting its first nationally televised game at ASU Stadium. The Red Wolves have forced 14 turnovers this season, including generating a season-high three in their last game, which head coach Steve Roberts knows will be a key to this game. “They’ve had a couple of games that I think have really skewed the statistics,” he commented. “We can’t count on non-contact turnovers happening.” The team is focused on winning their third consecutive conference game for the first time since 2006. Arkansas State is 6-2 ATS this season, including a 2-1 ATS mark at home.
The Red Wolves have garnered an impressive 31-11 home record under Roberts watch in Jonesboro and are in the midst of three-game home stand, their longest since 2008. He holds a sparkling 16-4 record at this venue during conference play since 2005. ASU’s rush defense has tightened up by allowing just 102.5 yards per game over its last two contests, which is a far-different than the 230.5 yards it was giving up on the ground in the first six games. Offensively, the team ranks second in the Sun Belt in scoring offense at 28.9 points per game and total offense by generating 403.4 yards a contest.
Bettors are likely to back the Blue Raiders due to their 6-0 ATS mark in November and 8-1 ATS record in conference games. Arkansas State is 4-0 ATS in conference and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.