What Bettors Need to Know: Bowling Green at Buffalo
By Marc Lawrence
The Mid American Conference steps into the spotlight Tuesday night when Buffalo (3-5, 1-3) hosts Bowling Green (3-5, 2-2) in an East division battle at the University of Buffalo Stadium. The game is televised on ESPN2.
The Bulls opened a 4-point favorite and have moved down to -3.5.
Weather update
Mostly cloudy with the temperature expected to be in the lower 30s. West winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Bull twit
One year removed from its first bowl game ever, Buffalo has returned back to the pack in 2009. After dropping a disappointing 34-31 overtime decision at Western Michigan 10 days ago, Turner Gill’s troops will likely need to run the table if they wish to go bowling for the second-straight season.
The MAC has bowl tie-ins with the Little Caesars Pizza, International and GMAC bowls and the divisional winners are guaranteed bowl berths.
A victory tonight would be a start, but, even with winless Miami up in two weeks, the Bulls have never won a game (0-5) in Oxford, Ohio.
The Bulls will need a better defensive effort against the Falcons than they produced against the Broncos. Western Michigan finished with 505 yards of total offense against Buffalo, its second-best production of the season.
The strength of the Bulls' offense is the passing game. The only time QB Zach Maynard has passed for fewer than 210 yards was in his first start at Texas-El Paso. WR Naaman Roosevelt, the best receiver in school history, along with fellow wideout Brett Hamlin and tight end Jesse Rack, are all enjoying career seasons.
RB Ike Nduka has emerged as a running threat. The Bulls lost standout running back James Starks before the start of the season, but In Buffalo's most recent game against Western Michigan, Nduka carried 18 times for 172 yards and a touchdown. He has rushed for over 100 yards in three of Buffalo's last four games.
Buffalo’s Achilles’ heel has been the turnover bug. Seventeen turnovers lost and only six gained ties the Bulls for 103rd nationally in this critical category. Only eight of the 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams own worse numbers.
The Bulls are 3-0 this season in games in which they held opponents to 17 or less points. They are 0-5 when surrendering 20 or more points.
"We wanted to win a championship, we wanted to go to a bowl game, but it's not in our hands anymore,” said Buffalo linebacker Justin Winters.
Falcon findings
Bowling Green coach Dave Clawson is a Western New York native and a former assistant at Buffalo. This game will be a homecoming of sorts for Clawson.
Falcon QB Tyler Sheehan has completed 65 percent of his passes for 2677 yards with 15 touchdowns and only five interceptions.
WR Freddie Barnes had 14 receptions for 172 yards and a TD against Central Michigan on Oct. 24. He leads the nation in receptions (99), yards (1054), touchdowns (nine), yards per game (131.8) and receptions per game (12.4). He has 37 more receptions and 173 more yards than the second place player in each category. It’s no surprise that Barnes is prime contender on this year’s list of candidates for the Fred Biletnikoff award.
Stopping the run remains the biggest concern for Bowling Green. The Falcons are allowing 201.7 yards per game on the ground on an average of 5.7 yards per rush.
Through Bowling Green's first eight games this season the Falcons have allowed an opposing player to rush for at least 100 yards six times. Bowling Green is 1-5 in those games.
Keeping it close
"I would rather lose a close game than a blowout. That means we're not that far away. We've played some good football against some good football teams. We just have not made those critical plays to get us over the top. You continue to go back and teach, fix the problems you have. You try to get those things corrected and it you do that you'll start winning football games,” contends Falcons head coach Clawson.
Bad blood
Wind the clock back to last season. Down 14 points entering the fourth quarter, Buffalo rallied in double overtime to beat Bowling Green and go on to capture the MAC East title, play in the conference championship game and in the International Bowl as a result. The loss denied the Falcons a seven-win season and possible bowl berth.
Buffalo is 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS in this series. The underdog is 5-1 ATS.
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Buffalo Bulls
The Bowling Green Falcons and the Buffalo Bulls will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at UB Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Bulls listed as 3-point favorites versus the Falcons, while the game's total has not yet been posted.
Tyler Sheehan was 35-for-55 passing for 341 yards with one touchdown and one interception for Bowling Green in a 24-10 loss to Central Michigan in Week 8.
The Falcons did not cover the 10-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the day's posted total of 61.
Ike Nduka finished with 172 yards rushing for Buffalo in a 34-31 OT loss to Western Michigan in Week 8.
The Bulls covered the 5.5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 51.5.
Team records:
Bowling Green: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS
Buffalo: 3-5 SU, 3-4 ATS
Bowling Green most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 5-5
Buffalo most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Bowling Green's last 7 games on the road
Bowling Green is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Bowling Green is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Bowling Green is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Bowling Green
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Bowling Green
Next up:
Bowling Green at Miami (Ohio), Thursday, November 12
Buffalo home to Ohio, Tuesday, November 10
Bowling Green (3-5 SU and ATS) at Buffalo (3-5, 3-4 ATS)
Two teams coming off losses to Michigan schools get together for a Mid-American Conference East Division showdown, as the Falcons visit Buffalo for a prime-time matchup.
Bowling Green followed up a pair of conference road wins over Kent State (36-35) and Ball State (31-17) with a 24-10 home loss to Central Michigan on Oct. 24, failing to cover as a 9½-point underdog. The Falcons are just 2-5 SU and ATS since a season-opening 17-point rout of Troy, and they’re 2-2 SU and ATS on the road this season.
The Bulls took Western Michigan to overtime on Oct. 24, falling 34-31 to snap a modest two-game win streak, though they covered as a 5½-point road underdog. Like Bowling Green, Buffalo opened the season with a victory (23-17 at UTEP as a 10½-point ‘dog), but since then it has dropped five of seven, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS against Division I-A competition. Buffalo is 2-2 (2-1 ATS) at home.
Two of the last three meetings between these schools have gone into overtime, including last year’s matchup at Bowling Green, which Buffalo won 40-34 as a 4½-point road underdog. The Bulls trailed 14-0 and 27-7 but battled back and scored the tying touchdown with 37 seconds left, then prevailed in double-overtime to end a four-game SU losing streak to Bowling Green. Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, with the underdog covering in all four contests and the road team going 3-0 ATS in the last three.
Bowling Green has scored 20 points or less in four of its games (going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS) and 31 points or more in its other four games (going 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS). Behind quality QB Tyler Sheehan (2,677 passing yards, 15 TDs, 5 INTs), the Falcons are averaging 406.5 total yards per game (341.4 passing ypg). Defensively, Bowling Green surrenders 28.4 ppg, yielding 24 or more in five of eight games, and the Falcons are getting out-rushed by an average of 149 ypg (214-65).
After scoring only 93 points in their first five contests (18.6 per game) – tallying 23 or less four times – the Bulls have scored 92 in their last three (30.7 ppg). They roll up 411 total yards of offense per game, including 149.5 rushing ypg (4.2 per carry), but the defense gives up 25.6 points and 353 total ypg (150 rushing ypg). The Bulls have yielded 33.6 ppg in their five defeats compared with just 12.3 ppg in their three wins.
Bowling Green is on positive ATS runs of 9-2 on the road, 4-0 as a road ‘dog, 6-1 in November, 7-3 against losing teams and 7-3 after a non-cover. However, in addition to going 1-5 ATS in their last six overall, the Falcons have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 after a bye, four of five on Tuesday and four straight following an outright loss.
The Bulls are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 against opponents with a losing record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 November outings, but otherwise they’re in pointspread slumps of 1-6 at home, 0-5 as a favorite (all at home) and 1-5-1 after a bye.
The Falcons have topped the total in four straight Tuesday contests and four of five after a bye, but Bowling Green also carries “under” trends of 7-3 overall, 9-4 in MAC action, 6-1 on the road, 9-1 as an underdog and 7-0 as a road pup. Buffalo has stayed low in four of its last five at home, but the over is 7-3 in its last 10 MAC games and 5-2 in its last seven in November. Finally, the under has cashed in all three Falcons-Bulls meetings in Buffalo this decade.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
BOWLING GREEN (3 - 5) at BUFFALO (3 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-1 against the spread versus BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-1 straight up against BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN at BUFFALO
BOWLING GREEN: 14-4 ATS in road games
BUFFALO: 1-5 ATS off conference loss by 3pts or less
BOWLING GREEN vs. BUFFALO
Bowling Green is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Bowling Green is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Bowling Green
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Bowling Green