Toledo at Northern Illinois: What Bettors Need to Know
By Marc Lawrence
The leaders in the MAC West Division meet for top honors in the conference Tuesday night. Let’s take a look at how they match up.
Destiny calls
The winner of Tuesday’s game will be in control of its own destiny in the MAC West Division race.
It is the most anticipated league game for UT since the conclusion of the 2005 season when Rockets went 9-3, finishing up the campaign with a 45-13 win over UTEP in the GMAC Bowl.
“With the emotions riding high and intensity soaring through the locker room, it's time for the Rockets to take flight and go to war with the Huskies,” said UT offensive tackle John Morookain.
“This game is the biggest game of the year, and maybe of our lives to this point.”
Rocketing up the charts
The Rockets are 5-0 in the MAC for the first time since the 2004 campaign. Toledo also began that season 5-0 before winning the West Division with a 7-1 conference record and going on to win the MAC Championship Game.
Toledo, who hasn't had a winning record since 2005, was picked to finish fourth in the MAC West in the preseason media MAC poll.
Second-year head coach Tim Beckman inherited a team that went 3-9 in 2008. Beckman led UT to a 5-7 mark in his rookie campaign and now has the Rockets bowl-eligible and in the thick of the MAC Championship race.
Toledo has won three straight games, most recently a convincing 42-7 win at Eastern Michigan on October 30. Redshirt-freshman quarterback Terrance Owens stepped in for the injured Austin Dantin to throw for 234 yards and four touchdowns.
Dantin, who injured his shoulder on the second drive of the game, will not play versus NIU and could miss the remainder of the regular season.
Hot dogs
Northern Illinois is the hottest team in the Mid-American Conference, winners of six straight games, including an exciting 28-21 win at Western Michigan that wasn't settled until an interception with 39 seconds to play.
NIU's only two losses this year have been on the road at Iowa State (27-10) and Illinois (28-22).
In addition, Northern Illinois defensive end Jake Coffman was named the Mid-American Conference West Division Defensive Player of the Week after recording four tackles and an interception in NIU's victory over Western Michigan.
Harnish racing
The Huskies are led by the one-two rushing punch of senior running back Chad Spann and junior quarterback Chandler Harnish.
Harnish became the first quarterback in Northern Illinois history to pick up back-to-back MAC West weekly honors after earning MAC West Offensive Player of the Week recognition following the Akron and Temple games.
Spann leads the MAC with 1000 yards and tops the conference with 12 touchdowns. Harnish has 559 yards rushing and leads the MAC with 5.9 yards per carry.
In eight starts at quarterback for the Huskies this season, Harnish ranks sixth in the MAC in rushing and owns the highest average per carry of any back in the league's Top 10. The fleet-footed quarterback has four runs of 37 yards or longer.
With 117 yards on 11 carries at Illinois, Harnish passed the 1,000-yard mark for his career. He now has 1,327 yards on 302 attempts with four career 100-yard games. He is only the third Huskies quarterback to gain 1,000 rushing yards.
Deja vu
The last time a Northern Illinois team won five (or more) straight games to open a Mid-American Conference season was 2004. The similarities between that year and 2010 are a little eerie, right down to the dates on the calendar.
In 2004, NIU started the year 1-2 with a home win in the second game and road losses at Maryland and Iowa State. Joe Novak's Huskies then won six straight MAC games between September 24 and October 30 to improve their record to 7-2 overall, 6-0 in the MAC.
That lead into a Tuesday, November 9 ESPN2 showdown for the MAC West, versus a Toledo team that was 5-1 in the league and 6-3 overall.
The Rockets emerged victorious in that game, 31-17, and went on to play in the MAC Championship game.
As Yogi Berra would say, could this be “deja vu all over again?”
Back in time
• The Huskies have won 10 of their last 11 and seven straight league home games. NIU's only home league loss over the last three seasons came in overtime to Central Michigan in 2008.
• Under Jerry Kill, Northern Illinois is 13-3 on Brigham Field, including a 5-1 record last year and a 4-0 mark so far in 2010.
• In three seasons under Kill, the Huskies are a perfect 19-0 when they rush for 200 or more yards in a game, including a 7-0 mark in 2010. On the other hand, when opponents have held NIU below 200 yards rushing, Northern Illinois' record is 1-15.
• This will be the 38th meeting between Toledo and Northern Illinois, with UT leading the series, 29-8. Toledo has won 14 of the last 16 meetings and holds an 11-6 record in DeKalb.
• The Rockets are 5-1 straight up and against the spread as underdogs in this series.
Tale of the tape: Toledo at Northern Illinois
First place in the MAC is on the line when Toledo visits Northern Illinois as an 11.5-point underdog on Tuesday night.
Offense:
The Toledo Rockets will be without injured starting quarterback Austin Dantin for the rest of the season, but redshirt freshman Terrance Owens stepped in to go 10-of-15 for 24 yards and four touchdowns against Eastern Michigan’s terrible defense. The Rockets’ total offense sits 91st in the nation and puts up 25.1 points per game on an average of 146.3 rushing yards.
Northern Illinois ranks 11th nationally putting up over 243 yards per game on the ground on 5.6 yards per carry. Running back Chad Spann has rumbled for 1000 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns already. Quarterback Chandler Harnish completes 66 percent of his attempts and has 12 touchdowns to four interceptions while sitting second on the team with 559 rushing yards. The Huskies sit 35th in the country putting up 416.9 yards of total offense per game while producing an average of 30.7 points a contest.
Edge: Huskies
Defense:
The Huskies rank 16th in the nation allowing only 18.7 points a game and check in at 63rd in the nation in total defense. The team’s rush defense allows 126.9 yards per game on the ground and the club has snatched 14 interceptions – seventh in the country.
However, Northern Illinois does allow opponents to convert more than 42 percent of their third-down attempts and has managed only 14 quarterback sacks this year.
Toledo allows just over 25 points per game and has big problems on pass defense, giving up 240 yards per game through the air. The Rockets’ defensive line has accounted for 15 of the club’s 21 sacks this season, while the club ranks first in the MAC with a +9 turnover margin.
Edge: Huskies
Special teams:
The Rockets have hit just five of their 12 field goal attempts this year with Ryan Casano and Bill Claus splitting time, but the club is averaging 40 yards per punt. Toledo also ranks 30th in the country in kickoff return average (23.5 yards), though they take punts back only an average of 3.1 yards.
Northern Illinois hits 60.9 percent of its field goals and has the edge in punt returns with a 7.7-yard average. The Huskies kick return checks in at 20.1 yards per attempt. Northern Illinois averages 38.1 yards per punt.
Edge: Huskies
From the files of the beat reporters:
“This game is the biggest game of the year, and maybe of our lives to this point. With the emotions riding high and intensity soaring through the locker room, it’s time for the Rockets to take flight and go to war with the Huskies.” - Toledo right tackle John Morookian said in a blog on the Rockets’ team site.
"It’s not going to change what they do offensively. Toledo has two or three extra days so they’ll add four or five different formations, four or five different plays. That’s just Toledo. That’s what they do, and they’re good at it. So who’s back there or what’s back there isn’t going to change the philosophy that they have.” – Northern Illinois coach Jerry Kill told reporters about Toledo going with redshirt freshman Terrance Owens at quarterback.
Final score prediction:
Northern Illinois 33, Toledo 20
Tips and Trends
Toledo Rockets at Northern Illinois Huskies
ROCKETS: Very quietly, Toledo is in the midst of a strong season. The Rockets are a perfect 5-0 in MAC play, and with a SU win today would be at the top of the MAC standings. Toledo is 3-2 ATS as the listed underdog this year, with each win coming outright. The Rockets are 6-3 SU, despite not having a team ranking better than 65th in any major statistic on either side of the ball. Freshman Terrance Owens will make a critical start tonight on the road against the class of the MAC. Owens is the starting QB for the rest of the year since Austin Danton went out with an injury in their last game. Owens will likely be targeting WR Eric Page early and often, as he's the true gamebreaker of this Rockets offense. Page has 66 catches for 776 YDS this year, by far team highs. The Rockets are allowing opponents to average 25.2 PPG this season. In order for Toledo to win tonight on the road, their defense will have to play their best game of the season. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games overall. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Toledo is 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU win. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog more than 10 PTS. Toledo is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.
Rockets are 3-8 ATS last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - LB Robert Bell (leg) is questionable.
Projected Score: 14
HUSKIES: (-10.5, O/U 50) The win streak is at 6 now, as Northern Illinois continues their climb toward the Top 25 polls. The Huskies are one of the best non BCS schools in the country. Northern Illinois is 3-0 both SU and ATS against FBS opponents at home this year. Of their 8 games against FBS opponents this year, the Huskies have only lost once ATS. QB Chandler Harnish is a duel threat QB that is leading this Huskies offense to more than 30 PPG this year. Harnish has nearly 2,000 total yards this season, including 16 TD's. RB Chad Spann has rushed for exactly 1,000 YDS, including 12 TD's this year. Northern Illinois averages 243 YPG on the ground this season, 11th best in the nation. The Huskies are very consistent on the defensive side of the ball, as they simply don't have a bad game. The Huskies are only allowing 18.7 PPG this year, 16th best in the country. The Huskies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games overall. Northern Illinois is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. The Huskies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as the listed favorite. Northern Illinois is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. The Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. The Huskies are 1-8 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Huskies are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 games overall.
Over is 4-1 last 5 games as a favorite more than 10 PTS.
Key Injuries - S Mike Sobol (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 34 (SIDE of the Day)
CFB Betting Preview: Toledo Rockets at Northern Illinois Huskies
By: Jeff Mattingly
Toledo is hoping its 29-8 advantage in this series will lead them to a major upset in tonight’s MAC showdown against the Northern Illinois Huskies in Dekalb. The Rockets will go as far as backup quarterback Terrance Owens can take them after losing starter Austin Dantin to a shoulder injury last week. Owens threw for 234 yards and four touchdowns in a 42-7 win at Eastern Michigan on October 30. The team is 5-0 in conference play for the first time since the 2004 campaign and last started 6-0 in 1997. Toledo is 22-25 in national television games, including a 9-10 mark on ESPN2 and a perfect 2-0 at NIU in this situation. The squad is 3-2 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points over the past three years.
The Rockets will need to continue forcing turnovers to have a shot in this contest and currently rank third in the nation in interceptions (16) and forced turnovers (26). Both of those statistics have positioned them with a turnover margin of +1.0, which is tied for ninth in all of college football. Owens will be making his first career start on the road and will likely try to find wide receiver Eric Page on third down, as he is eighth in the nation with 7.3 receptions per game and 22nd nationally with 86.2 receiving yards. “We feel confident in T.O. that he can get the job done for us,” said head coach Tim Beckman. “We just have to keep things simple and put him in a position to be successful.”
Northern Illinois knows that tonight’s game will likely determine the division winner and the program will try to intimidate its opponent tonight with a “Black Out” scheduled on national television. “We know it’s going to be a huge game,” said running back Chad Spann. “They have aspirations for the MAC title game just like we do. They’re the team in our way right now.” Spann hit the 1,000-yard mark for the season last week at Western Michigan and has carried the ball 182 times, averaging 111.1 rushing yards per game. As a team, Northern Illinois ranks 11th in the nation in rushing and 38th in total offense by gaining 416.8 yards a game. The team is 1-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the past three years.
The Huskies enter Tuesday’s game looking to extend their winning streak to seven games, which would be NIU’s longest streak since the 2003 season. Northern Illinois has registered a 139-97-2 all-time mark at Huskie Stadium and has gone 13-3 on this field under head coach Jerry Kill. The team is also a solid 15-6 in Mid-American Conference games under Kill’s direction. Ten defenders, eight offensive players and three specialists will play their final game at the venue tonight, as the team boasts 13 senior starters in 2010.
Bettors may elect to lay the Rockets due to their 1-5 ATS mark after a bye week, while the Huskies are 4-10 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 or more points.