UCF at Marshall: What Bettors Need to Know
It’s the second straight Wednesday of Conference USA action featuring UCF. This time, the Knights are on the road as they look for their eighth conference victory in a row.
Line Movement
The side has dropped a point from its opening of 6.5 at most books while the total has dropped a half a point at most books. Approximately 60 percent of the lean is on Central Florida. The Knights are 4-1 ATS this season while Marshall is 1-4, with the lone cover coming against West Virginia.
The series
UCF leads the all-time series, 5-3, and has won the past five. Last year in Orlando, the Knights won 21-20, scoring twice in the final eight minutes to overcome a 20-7 deficit.
This year’s Knights enter off an impressive 42-7 win over UAB. Sophomore safety Kemal Ishmael was a one-man wrecking crew for UCF and was named C-USA Defensive Player of the Week. He made seven tackles, grabbed an interception and forced a fumble that was returned for a touchdown to lead a dominant UCF defense. That unit is ranked second nationally in passing efficiency, fifth in pass defense, eighth in scoring defense and ninth in total defense.
Central Florida has played N.C. State and Kansas State and could have won both games. Only UCF and Cal have defenses ranked in the Top 10 in all four of those categories. The Knights have allowed opponents just eight trips to the red zone in five games, only topped by TCU’s seven in six games.
Marshall enters off a disappointing effort in a 41-16 loss at Southern Miss on October 2. The Herd offense was inept with just 180 total yards. On the positive side, Marshall defensive end Vinny Curry had two more sacks to give him eight in five games. He ranks No. 1 in the FBS in sacks, No. 2 in tackles for loss with 11.5 and 16th with 50 total tackles. Curry also has two forced fumbles and three quarterback hurries.
The offenses
This is a home game so it should mean a good night for Marshall QB Brian Anderson. Overall, he has completed 85-of-147 passes for 880 yards and eight touchdowns against five interceptions.
In two home games, he is 41-of-59 for 524 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions. But the Herd are second-to-last in C-USA in rushing and 105th in the nation (101 yards per game). They managed just 52 yards on the ground against Southern Miss.
“We have to become a more balanced offense,” first-year head coach Doc Holliday said to reporters. “It comes down to blocking and we've got to do a better job of doing that.”
The Knights are very good on the ground but not so much in the air. The team rotates QBs, with freshman Jeffrey Godfrey getting most of the time. Rob Calabrese often comes in on a Wildcat-type formation.
Last week Godfrey rushed for 80 yards (he leads the team in rushing) while Calabrese rushed for 40 yards. It was the first time in UCF history that two quarterbacks finished with 40 rushing yards or more in the same game. The Knights have four players with at least 100 yards rushing. Both QBs are completing better than 64 percent of their passes but UCF is 100th in the nation in passing yards per game (169.4).
This and that
Central Florida coach George O’Leary said backup kicker Jamie Boyle will likely handle field goals at Marshall as starter Nick Cattoi has struggled this season. Cattoi has hit only four of his eight field goal attempts this season. He has missed all three attempts from 40-49 yards, including a 44-yard attempt against UAB.
Marshall is 6-2 all-time playing on Wednesday nights. The Herd are 121-20 overall at Joan C. Edwards Stadium for a winning percentage of .858. That’s the best in Division I for any team in its current stadium.
Tips and Trends
Central Florida Knights at Marshall Thundering Herd
KNIGHTS: (-5.5, O/U 44.5) Central Florida played their best game last week, a complete 42-7 SU beatdown of UAB. The Knights are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS overall this year. The biggest reason for their success is their defense, as they've held their past 3 opponents to 17 PTS or fewer. The Knights are only allowing 13.8 PPG, 8th best in the nation. Heading into the brunt of their conference schedule, it can be assumed that this defense is only going to get even stronger. UCF has a potent rushing attack, as they average nearly 200 YPG on the ground, 32nd in the nation. For UCF to continue to be one of the best mid-majors in the country, they will have to better in the passing game. The Knights are only averaging 170 YPG through the air, 100th best in the country. UCF can win back to back games SU for the first time this season tonight. The Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. The Knights are 6-0 ATS against a team with a losing record. UCF is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week.
Knights are 9-1 ATS last 10 road games.
Under is 8-3 last 11 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - WR A.J. Guyton (knee) is probable.
Projected Score: 23 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
THUNDERING HERD: Marshall is flat out struggling this year, as the are 1-4 both SU and ATS this season. Marshall was pummeled last week by Southern Mississippi, and the going doesn't get any easier this week. The Thundering Herd face a very stout team in UCF tonight. Marshall has lost the past 5 meetings against UCF, so revenge would certainly be sweet tonight at home. Because this game is at home, one would think Marshall will be ready to play with the type of effort they showed against WVA earlier this season. The Herd are struggling to score this season, as they are only averaging 19.2 PPG, 100th best in the nation. Surprisingly, the Herd are struggling run the football, as they don't have a player with more than 250 YDS rushing this season. Marshall's defense might be the most disappointing aspect of their season, as they are allowing opponents to average 35.4 PPG. The only thing working in the Herd's favor tonight is the fact they've had extra time to prepare for this league contest. Marshall has had 3 more days to prepare for tonight than UCF has. The Thundering Herd are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Marshall is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Thundering Herd are 12-4 ATS last 16 games as a home underdog.
Under is 11-2 last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Key Injuries - DT Johnny Jones (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 17
UCF at Marshall
By Brian Edwards
George O’Leary’s Central Florida team takes the national stage once again tonight when it goes on the road to face Marshall. The Knights enjoyed the spotlight on ESPN last Wednesday, cruising to a 42-7 home win over UAB as 11 ½-point home favorites.
This time around, most betting shops have installed UCF (3-2 straight up, 4-1 against the spread) as a 5 ½-point favorite with a total of 44 ½. Bettors can take the Thundering Herd to win outright for a plus-200 return (risk $100 to win $200).
Marshall (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) returns home after taking a 41-16 shellacking from So. Miss in Hattiesburg back on Oct. 2. The week before, Doc Holliday picked up the first win of his tenure in a 24-23 victory over Ohio. The Thundering Herd failed to cover the number, however, as a 6 ½-point home favorite.
Marshall blew a golden opportunity to upset in-state rival West Virginia the last time it was on ESPN. In Week 2, the Herd jumped all over the Mountaineers early and often, leading 21-6 with ball in the red zone and a chance to put up add-on points early in the fourth quarter. But WVU forced a turnover to prevent another score, then forced overtime and won by a 24-21 count in the extra session.
Nevertheless, the Herd took the cash as a 12 ½-point home underdog vs. WVU. Those gamblers forced to rip up a Marshall money-line ticket (in the plus-600 range) were left a tad disappointed.
Back to UFC, which won its C-USA opener last week against the Blazers. The Knights are one game back of East Carolina in C-USA East, where the Pirates have run out to a 3-0 record.
Ronnie Weaver ran for a pair of touchdowns in the first quarter, while Josh Robinson had a 56-yard scoop and score (fumble return) as the Knights raced out to a 28-0 lead over UAB. Freshman QB Jeff Godfrey completed 9-of-11 passes for 137 yards without an interception. Godfrey also rushed for 80 yards on nine carries.
UCF opened the season with a 38-7 win over South Dakota in a non-lined affair and it also beat Buffalo by a 24-10 score as a 7 ½-point road favorite in Week 3. The Knights have also taken on a pair of BCS teams and held their own, although those games did produce both of their losses.
In Week 2 at home, North Carolina St. came down to Orlando and captured a 28-21 win as a three-point underdog. Then in Week 4, O’Leary took his team into Big 12 Country and nearly came away with an upset win.
However, Kansas State scored in the final minute to collect a 17-13 victory in come-from-behind fashion. Nevertheless, UCF backers cashed tickets catching 6 ½ points.
Godfrey is completing 64.3 percent of his throws and has passed for 531 yards, but he has just a ½ touchdown-interception ratio. Godfrey also provide the scrambling dynamic, racking up a team-high 283 rushing yards and two TDs. He’s averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
Marshall senior QB Brian Anderson has been outstanding with the exception of a four-interception debacle in a 44-28 loss at Bowling Green. Since then, Anderson has four TD passes without a pick. He also threw three TD passes without an interception in the loss to West Va.
The ‘over’ is 4-1 in Marshall’s games, while the ‘under’ has hit at a 3-1 clip in UCF’s four games with a total.
ESPN will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
UCF owns a 4-7 spread record in its 11 games as a road favorite during O’Leary’s seven-year tenure.
The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between UCF and Marshall.
Since 2000, Texas has only been an underdog eight times, going 7-1 ATS. The Longhorns are 9 ½-point underdogs Saturday at Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are just 6-9 ATS as home favorite on Bo Pelini’s watch since 2008.
Dating back to Houston Nutt’s teams at Arkansas since 2005, his squads are 7-0 ATS when listed as a double-digit underdog. Furthermore, Nutt’s teams have won three of those games outright. He’ll lead Ole Miss (off an open date) into Bryant-Denny Stadium to take on Alabama this week. The Rebels are 21-point road underdogs. The Tide could be missing WR Julio Jones, who had surgery Monday on his broken hand.
FSU and Va. Tech have both won four in a row both SU and ATS. Even UNC, despite being engulfed in turmoil, has won three straight both SU and ATS.
Ron Zook’s teams have always thrived in underdog roles, even dating back to his days at Florida. Illinois owns a 3-0 spread record in a trio of ‘dog spots so far this year. The Illini go to Michigan St. this week as a seven-point puppy. Since 2006, Zook’s Illinois squads are a lucrative 10-1 ATS as road underdogs.
vegasinsider.com.