Miami (Ohio) at Bowling Green: What Bettors Need to Know
For the second night in a row, the Mid-American Conference has the college football world all to itself.
Bowling Green is just playing out the string at 2-7 overall and 1-4 in the MAC, but the RedHawks still are in contention for the East Division title at 4-1 in the conference (5-4 overall). If Miami (Ohio) can win this game and then at Akron next week, the season finale against Temple could be for a spot in the conference title game.
Miami (Ohio) has alternated wins and losses in the past six games. It beat Buffalo 21-9 behind 231 yards passing and two touchdowns from quarterback Zac Dysert on October 30. Miami (Ohio), which has won its past two on the road, needs just one win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2005.
The Falcons had lost five in a row before surprising Central Michigan, 17-14, on October 30, thanks to a one-yard touchdown run by Jordan Hopgood with 21 seconds remaining.
Miami (Ohio) leads the all-time series with Bowling Green 41-20-5, including going 19-9-4 on the road. It has won nine of the past 11 meetings but did lose, 35-14, last year. But it has won five straight at Doyt Perry Stadium.
Team matchups
Bowling Green receiver Kamar Jorden certainly will be a focus of the Miami (Ohio) defense. Jordan has 76 catches in the first nine games and with an average of 8.44 receptions per game, he leads the MAC and is third nationally. His 825 yards receiving are good for 91.67 yards per game, which is 14th nationally.
Falcons quarterback Matt Schilz has completed 163 of 270 passes for 1,546 yards and five touchdowns. Leading that last-second win against CMU was the first fourth-quarter comeback of his career. The ground game is led by Willie Geter, who has 566 yards and four touchdowns. But that unit ranks last in the MAC and nationally at just 62.3 yards per game.
Defensively, the Falcons are allowing 33.9 points and 425.3 yards per game, ranking 11th and 10th in the conference. Bowling Green is second in the conference with 25 takeaways.
Miami receiver Nick Harwell has been on a roll of his own with 33 catches for 475 yards over the past four games. He had only two catches before this recent run. Dysert has 2,185 passing yards in 2010, including 320.7 per game over the last three games. There’s only one team worse in the nation this season than Miami (Ohio) on the ground (62.8 ypg) and that’s Bowling Green.
On defense, five of Miami (Ohio)’s nine opponents have been held to less than 100 yards rushing, including the Florida Gators. The Redhawks defense has caused 20 turnovers, which is tied for 11th in the country.
Injury report
Bowling Green coach Dave Clawson says he expects safety Keith Morgan to return this week. Morgan did not play at Central Michigan after suffering a concussion the previous week. Clawson also said junior center Ben Bojicic has been practicing but remains questionable. Cornerback Cameron Truss also remains questionable.
Miami (Ohio) expects left offensive tackle Matt Kennedy, who has missed five starts with an ankle injury, and defensive end Mwanza Wamulumba, who has been out four weeks with a sprained ankle, to return. Safety Dante Taylor, who saw action in six of the first seven games, has missed the last two due to injury and also should play. Linebacker Ryan Kennedy, one of the top tacklers in the Mid-American Conference after four games, hasn’t played since and is questionable.
This and that
- With a 5-4 record, Miami (Ohio) now has four more victories than it recorded in all of 2009 (1-11). That ties Maryland for the best improvement in the country so far this season.
- Miami (Ohio) is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 games as a favorite.
- Bowling Green is 10-1 ATS in its past 11 November contests.
- The road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.
Tale of the tape: Miami (Ohio) at Bowling Green
With a win Wednesday, Miami (Ohio) can keep its hopes of a conference title game alive and the Redhawks have had their way with the Falcons by winning nine of the last 11 matchups between the two clubs.
Offense:
The Bowling Green running game isn’t pretty, checking in last in the MAC and the country as it produces only 62.3 yards per game. Willie Geter is the main rusher with 566 yards and four touchdowns. The total offense isn’t much better as it sits 110th in the nation putting up 295.9 yards and the offense scores 23.7 points an outing. Quarterback Matt Schilz has combined with wideout Kamar Jorden for 76 grabs and his 8.44 catches per game put him third in the country.
The Redhawks can’t run the ball either. They average 62.8 yards per game, just one spot ahead of the basement-dwelling Falcons. Luckily, Miami can throw it around with 259.1 passing yards per game as Zac Dysert completes 63.6 percent of his passes for 6.8 yards an attempt. Wideout Nick Hawell has picked up lately with 33 catches and 475 receiving yards over the last four games. Miami’s total offense sits 98th in the country at 321.9 yards an outing, producing 19.4 points per game.
Defense:
The Redhawks sit 54th in the country allowing 359.9 yards and 27.2 points per game. Miami has held five teams to fewer than 100 yards so far and have also caused 20 turnovers to put them 11th in the nation in that category. Miami has 16 quarterback sacks this season and is tied for 23rd with 13 interceptions.
Bowling Green gives up 33.9 points and 425.3 yards per game. The big problem with the Falcons’ defense is stopping the run. They are allowing more than 207 yards per contest on the ground, which puts them 110th in the country and have 13 sacks and 13 interceptions so far.
Special teams:
Freshman Kyle Burkhardt will handle the field goals for the Falcons after he hit a 34-yarder and a couple extra points in the win over Central Michigan. The Falcons are hitting only 50 percent of their field goal tries on the year. Bowling Green takes kicks back an average of 19.7 yards and punts at 9.1 yards.
Miami (Ohio) sits 66th in the country averaging 21.6 yards per kickoff return. The Redhawks take punts back an average of 5 yards. Trevor Cook has helped the Redhawks hit 80 percent of the club’s field goal tries.
From the files of the beat reporters:
“We were so beat up, these few days off were more important to get some players back. We needed the break to give some guys a chance to heal up, and for everyone to get fresh legs.” - Miami coach Michael Heywood said about getting at least three players back in the lineup for Wednesday’s game.
"I take rivalries pretty personally. When I first came here I heard about Toledo and the 'Battle of I-75,' but I never heard much about Miami until I got here. But a lot of people have told me that Miami is a bigger deal." – Bowling Green defensive tackle Chris Jones told reporters.
Final score prediction:
Miami (Ohio) 27, Bowling Green 14
College Football Betting Preview: Miami OH at Bowling Green
By: Jeff Mattingly
Miami OH is tied with Maryland as the most improved team in college football and is just a win away from becoming bowl eligible. The RedHawks are playing the middle game of a three-game road trip, which started with an impressive 21-9 win at Buffalo. In fact, the team has won its last two league games on the road, starting with a 27-20 victory over Central Michigan on October 16. Picking up a victory tonight would move the team’s record to 5-1 in conference play, its best start since 2007. Miami OH is 5-4 ATS this season and 8-9 ATS on the road.
The Red Hawks will pull off an upset if quarterback Zac Dysert continues his strong play in completing 63.9 percent of his passes and throwing 12 touchdown passes. He will likely have to do it all due to lack of a rushing attack that averages just 67.8 yards on the ground. Offensively, the squad has performed well in the red zone, scoring on 22-of-28 opportunities. Much of this success can be attributed to an offensive line that has led the team to a 31:45-28:15 time of possession edge this season.
Bowling Green has a 2-7 overall record and 1-4 mark in Mid-American Conference play and second-year head coach Dave Clawson is 67-62 in ten-plus years as the head guy of a football program. The Falcons are literally playing for nothing on the football field, but the school will be celebrating its centennial on national television. “It’s a great opportunity for our football program, our athletic department,” said Clawson. “We’ve had great support all year this year.” It will be a tall order going against a team they trail 20-41-5 in the all-time series and have lost nine of the last 11 meetings to. The team is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 homes games.
The Falcons have had great success during this calendar month in posting 10 victories in 11 games, but it will likely need to outscore the RedHawks to continue that success. Bowling Green is allowing 33.9 points and 425.3 yards per game, ranking 11th and 10th in the conference respectively. One bright spot on this side of the ball is the 25 takeaways the unit has caused, including 12 interceptions. A letdown is a distinct possibility for this squad as well on Wednesday night, coming off a 17-14 road win at Central Michigan.
Bettors may elect to back the RedHawks due to their 5-0 ATS mark in the last five meetings at tonight’s venue, while the Falcons are 11-5-1 ATS as an underdog.
NCAAF Preview
Miami won nine of last eleven games vs Bowling Green; Red Hawks are 5-0 in last five visits here, winning by 7-2-22-3-14 points. Miami is 2-1 as favorite this year- they won last two road games, 27-20 at Central Michigan (+13), 21-9 at Buffalo (-3). Falcons snapped five-game skid in last game, upsetting Central (+11)- they lost two of their three home tilts this year, losing 28-26 to Buffalo (-3.5), 30-6 to Kent (+2.5). Home dogs are 2-9 vs spread in MAC games this season. Last four Miami games stayed under the total.
Tips and Trends
Miami of Ohio Redhawks at Bowling Green Falcons
REDHAWKS: (-2.5, O/U 50) Miami of Ohio will be looking to win their 3rd consecutive conference road game tonight. The Redhawks are 5-4 both SU and ATS overall this season. The Redhawks are an impressive 4-1 SU in MAC play this year, so this is a critical game for them tonight. While still in the running for a league championship, Miami of Ohio is also fighting for a bowl berth. QB Zac Dysert holds the keys to this offense, as this is a passing offense. Dysert has thrown for nearly 2,200 YDS, and leads the 32nd best passing game in the nation. While they churn out YDS, this Redhawks offense is only averaging 19.4 PPG this season, 16th worst in the country. The Redhawks lost by 21 PTS last year at home, so revenge is on their minds tonight. The Redhawks are 4-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Miami of Ohio is 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 road games against a team with a losing home record. The Redhawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win. Miami of Ohio is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played in November. The Redhawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
Redhawks are 2-8 ATS last 10 games as the listed favorite.
Over is 12-5 last 17 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Key Injuries - OL Matt Kennedy (ankle) is probable.
Projected Score: 24 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
FALCONS: Bowling Green will be playing their 2nd to last home game of the season tonight, and they would like nothing more than to win them both. Falcons fans haven't had much to be excited about this year, as they are just 2-7 SU this year. While they only have 2 wins SU, the Falcons are 5-4 ATS this season. All 5 ATS wins have come as the listed underdog this year, as they are 5-3 ATS in that specific role. Freshman QB Matt Schilz will look to lead the Falcons to victory tonight. With the nations worst rushing attack, Schilz is counted on to lead the Falcons down the field. Schilz has thrown for nearly 1,500 YDS this year. Being one dimensional on offense is a big reason the Falcons are averaging just 23.7 PPG this year. Bowling Green played their best game defensively last week, and will be looking to continue that tonight. For the year, the Falcons are giving up 33.9 PPG, 16th worst in the nation. The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Bowling Green is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week. The Falcons are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games overall. Bowling Green is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Falcons are 10-1 ATS last 11 games in November.
Over is 7-3 last 10 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - DB Cameron Truss (ankle) is probable.
Projected Score: 21