Miami (Ohio) at Akron: What Bettors Need to Know
Bettors have two Mid-American Conference choices to pick from when it comes to Wednesday night college football betting this week, but really only one of the two games has an overly interesting storyline - that’s the matchup between Miami (Ohio) and Akron.
I’d like to say that Miami is the only team that has something to play for in this game, but that wouldn’t be totally accurate. The Redhawks still have a shot at the MAC’s East Division title if they win out and Ohio loses on Tuesday night to Temple. So their motivation could be clear. But
Akron also has something to play for - to not be the only team in the country to finish winless. Indeed, the Zips are the only club with zip in the win column remaining.
It’s the second Wednesday night game in a row for Miami (Ohio), which beat Bowling Green, 24-21, last week thanks to a field goal by Trevor Cook on the game’s final play. But that game showed a bit of a trend for Miami (Ohio), which is 3-0 in MAC road games for the first time since 2003. In two of those three games, Miami (Ohio) held a lead of 10 or more points, let it get away and had to win with last-second heroics as was the case against BGSU when Miami (Ohio) blew a 21-7 fourth-quarter lead. The Bowling Green win was the first Miami (Ohio) victory on the game's last play since Ben Roethlisberger led the team past Akron back in 2001.
Akron would probably like to just have a lead at this point. But the Zips do enter off their best effort of the season, a 37-30 double-overtime loss at Ball State on November 6. Patrick Nicely’s interception in the second overtime finished off Akron, which lost its 14th straight road game. Still, it was only the second game (and first vs. an FBS foe) that didn’t end as a loss by more than a double-digit margin this year for the Zips.
This will be the first meeting between Akron and Miami (Ohio) since 2007, with the Redhawks holding a 13-5-1 series lead. They’re 4-4 in Akron. Miami (Ohio) has won six of the past seven matchups overall. This is the first-ever midweek game held on Akron’s campus.
Team matchups
Akron is probably the worst offensive team in the country as it ranks in the bottom 20 in the nation in rushing yards, passing yards, total offense (dead last) and scoring offense (as well as scoring defense).
The Zips have just a combined 17 offensive touchdowns. Six of Akron's eight rushing touchdowns this season have come courtesy of senior RB Alex Allen. Five of the passing TDs have gone to senior WR Jeremy LaFrance, who returned to the lineup at Ball State (after missing two games) with two TD catches. Nicely has played in all 12 games, completing 48.7 percent of his passes for 1,360 yards.
Redhawks quarterback Zac Dysert is still considered questionable for this game. Dysert, who has thrown for 2,406 yards and is tied for 10th in the FBS with 222 completions, was hurt in the second quarter of the Bowling Green. Redshirt freshman Austin Boucher would start if Dysert, who has averaged better than 295 yards passing in his past four games, can’t go. Miami (Ohio) could use Dysert considering it’s second-to-last in the nation in rushing.
Line movement
The line opened as high as 13 at some books while the total hasn’t much moved. Approximately 70 percent of the lean is on Miami (Ohio). The Redhawks are 6-4 ATS this year and 4-2 on the road. Akron is 3-7 ATS and 0-4 at home.
This and that
- With a 6-4 record, Miami (Ohio) is now bowl eligible. It has five more victories than it recorded in all of 2009 (1-11). No other team in Division I has improved as much.
- Akron head coach Rob Ianello and Miami coach Mike Haywood were members of Charlie Weis' staff at Notre Dame from 2005-08.
- Miami (Ohio) is 1-9 ATS in its past 10 as a favorite of 3.5-10 points.
- The over is 12-3 in Akron’s past 15 as a home dog.
- The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the past six in this series.
Tale of the tape: Miami (Ohio) at Akron
Miami (Ohio) Redhawks at Akron Zips (+10, 47.5)
The MAC owns Wednesdays with the conference being featured on hump day the past few weeks. Here’s a tale of the tape for this battle between Miami (Ohio) and Akron.
Offense
The Redhawks are ranked eighth in the league in total offense, averaging 327.4 yards per game which has equaled out to about 20 points per game. The share of those gains come from the passing game, which ranks 32nd in the country and is putting up more than 255 yards through the air per game. Quarterback Zac Dysert is third in the league in passing but is questionable with a rib injury suffered last week versus Bowling Green.
The Zips are dead last in the MAC in total offense, averaging only 257.8 yards per outing. Akron hasn’t leaned on one facet of its offense, splitting the rush and pass plays. It has put up just over 15 points a game this season, which ranks 117th out of 120 Div. 1 college teams.
Edge: Miami (Ohio)
Defense
The Redhawks stop unit is fifth in the MAC, giving up almost 346 yards an outing and budging for 26.6 points per game. Miami (Ohio) is tough on the ground, allowing just 131 rushing yards a contest, which ranks fourth in the conference. The Redhawks are also tough on third down, allowing opponents to convert only 37.98 percent of their third downs – second best in the MAC.
The Zips are giving up 38.8 points a game, which is 115th in the nation. They’re averaging 437.6 yards against and have toughened up – a bit – against the run. Akron is allowing 168.8 rushing yards per game, good for eighth in the MAC.
Edge: Miami (Ohio)
Special teams
The Redhawks special teams average just 3.82 yards per punt return and 20.69 yards per kick return, scoring one touchdown on a punt return against Kent State on October 2. On the other side of the ball, Miami (Ohio) allows 7.17 yards per punt and 21.24 yards per kickoff and has not allowed a special teams touchdown this season.
The Zips are second last in the conference with 3.17 yards per punt return and averaging only 19.30 yards per kick return, failing to run one back for a score. Akron is giving up just 6.86 yards per punt – fourth in the MAC – and 21.59 yards per kickoff, including a touchdown to Western Michigan in Week 8.
Edge: Miami (Ohio)
Word on the street
“One of the things we do here is that the second-string quarterback gets a third of all the reps at practice. We may split time with them anyway to get (Boucher) more reps.” – Miami (Ohio) coach Michael Haywood on the injury to QB Zac Dysert and the possibility of starting backup redshirt freshman Austin Boucher.
"I didn’t see much difference with the players and I outlined November to them because we play Buffalo on a Friday after this game against Miami. I told them this is how we are going to prepare. It’s very exciting to play on national TV and great for our conference to have this ESPN opportunity for both schools and we just want to represent Akron and our program well this Wednesday night." – Akron head coach Rob Ianello on his team’s adjustments to playing a mid-week schedule.
Final score prediction: Miami (Ohio) 27, Akron 17
Midweek NCAAF betting, Falcons at Rockets
By: Brad Young
The Mid-American Conference takes center stage Wednesday night when Toledo hosts Bowling Green. The Rockets (6-4 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) saw their chances of winning the MAC West Division take a major hit their last game, while the Falcons (2-8 SU, 5-5 ATS) are playing out the string.
Toledo will be hampered in this contest since quarterback Austin Dantin is ‘out’ indefinitely with a shoulder injury.
Don Best's Real-Time Odds has the Rockets as a 10-point home ‘chalk’ over Bowling Green, with the total set at 54. ESPN2 will provide coverage of this midweek MAC matchup beginning Wednesday at 5 p.m. PT from Toledo’s Glass Bowl.
Bowling Green fell to Miami (Ohio) last Wednesday in foggy conditions as a 2 ½-point home underdog, 24-21. The combined 45 points failed to topple the 52-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the third consecutive contest.
The Falcons trailed the Redhawks in first downs (20-11), rushing yards (156-44), passing yards (221-176) and time of possession (33:10-26:50). The game wasn’t decided until Miami kicked a 33-yard field goal on the final play.
Bowling Green quarterback Matt Schilz was 17-of-29 passing for 176 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Running back Willie Geter had 16 carries for 34 yards and two scores in the setback, while wideout Kamar Jorden caught four passes for 95 yards.
Toledo was throttled by Northern Illinois Nov. 9 as an 11 ½-point road underdog in a battle of the top two teams in the MAC West Division, 65-30. The combined 85 points soared past the 51-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to improve to 4-1 its past five outings.
The Rockets entered halftime losing by four touchdowns (28-0), and finished the contest by trailing the Huskies in first downs (28-20), rushing yards (422-194), turnovers forced (1-0) and time of possession (37:31-22:29). Toledo signal caller Terrance Owens was 18-of-38 passing for 186 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, while running back Adonis Thomas carried the ball 10 times for 152 yards and two scores.
Bowling Green is 3-0 SU and ATS the previous three meetings with Toledo, while the ‘under’ has cashed each time. The Falcons prevailed last season as a 7 ½-point home favorite, 38-24, while the combined 62 points failed to topple the 66 ½-point closing total.
Bowling Green is 20-7-1 its previous 28 road games, while the ‘under’ is 7-3 its last 10 outings in November. Toledo has seen the ‘over’ go 12-4 the past 16 games when listed as the favorite. The home team is 9-2 ATS the last 11 meetings in this series.
Bowling Green centers Scott Lewis and Ben Bojicic are ‘questionable’ versus the Rockets due to undisclosed reasons. The Falcons conclude their regular season Nov. 26 with a home game against Western Michigan.
Toledo running back David Fluellen will miss this matchup due to a leg injury. The Rockets wrap up their regular season Nov. 26 at home versus Central Michigan.
Wednesday’s forecast for Toledo calls for a 40 percent chance of rain and winds around 15 miles per hour, with a high of 55 degrees and a low of 37.
Tips and Trends
Miami of Ohio Redhawks at Akron Zips
REDHAWKS: (-10, O/U 47.5) Miami of Ohio has been one of the best stories in all of College Football this year. The Redhawks are playing inspired football this season, and a bowl berth awaits them. Miami of Ohio is in the middle of a 3 game road trip, and they've already won the 1st two games. The Redhawks are 5-1 SU in MAC play, and get to host Temple next week in a showcase game. QB Zac Dysert is one of the best QB's you've never heard of. Dysert has thrown for more than 2,400 YDS and 13 TD's this season. WR's Armand Robinson and Nick Harwell have combined for more than 1,300 receiving YDS and 8 TD's this season. This trio lead a passing game that is averaging 255 YPG passing, 32nd in the nation. The Redhawks need to continue to improve defensively if they are going to beat Temple and be successful in their upcoming bowl game. The Redhawks are 4-2 ATS in road games this season. The Redhawks are 5-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Miami of Ohio is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. The Redhawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Redhawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win. Miami of Ohio is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played in November. The Redhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
Redhawks are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Under is 7-2 last 9 games as a road favorite.
Key Injuries - QB Zac Dysert (ribs) is questionable.
Projected Score: 31 (SIDE of the Day)
ZIPS: Akron is making history this year, for all the wrong seasons. At 0-10 SU, the Zips are the only winless team in the FBS. The Zips play their final 2 games at home, and this week they have extra time to prepare for Miami of Ohio. Akron has had 3 more days to prepare for this game than Miami of Ohio has, so that is a distinct advantage. Akron is coming off their most complete game of the year, a 30-37 SU loss in overtime. Akron scored a season high 30 PTS against FBS opposition, yet they still only average 15.1 PPG, 4th worst in the nation. QB Patrick Nicely did throw for 4 TD's in his last game, so he will look to sustain that play tonight. The Zips are giving up 38.8 PPG, 6th worst in the nation. The Zips are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. The Zips are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. Akron is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games played in November. The Zips are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 conference games. Akron is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games overall.
Zips are 6-1 ATS last 7 games as a home underdog of more than 10 PTS.
Over is 12-3 last 15 games as a home underdog.
Key Injuries - QB Matt Rodgers (concussion) is questionable.
Projected Score: 13
Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets
FALCONS: Bowling Green lost a heart-breaking game last week when they fell to Miami of Ohio. They need to bounce back quickly though, because they face a hungry Toledo team with 1 more day to prepare. Bowling Green is 1-6 SU on the road this year, and they will be playing their final road game of the season. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS as a double digit underdog this season. Bowling Green has the worst rushing attack in the nation, so they depend solely on their passing game. QB Matt Schilz has thrown for 1,700 YDS and 6 TD's this season. Not bad for a freshman with a one dimensional offense. The Falcons have scored at least 20 PTS in all but 1 of their road games this season. Defensively, Bowling Green is allowing 32.9 PPG, 24th worst in the country. The Falcons are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Bowling Green is 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games overall. The Falcons are 1-4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on fieldturf. Bowling Green is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games.
Falcons are 10-2 ATS last 12 games played in November.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - DB Cameron Truss (ankle) is questionable.
Projected Score: 27
ROCKETS: (-10.5, O/U 53.5) Toledo is coming off a high scoring loss to Northern Illinois, but their is plenty of optimism heading into their final 2 games. The Rockets close their season with 2 home games, and if they can manage 1 SU win they guarantee themselves a bowl berth. The Rockets are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS at home this year. The Rockets would love nothing more than to prove their homefield advantage with SU wins in their final 2 games. The Rockets are 1-1 ATS as a double digit favorite overall this year. RB Adonis Thomas has been running the ball well of late, and has nearly 675 rushing YDS and 5 TD's this year. WR Eric Page is one of the best WR's in the nation, and his numbers prove just that. Page has 73 receptions for 840 YDS and 5 TD's this year. Toledo has lost their past 3 games against Bowling Green, so revenge will play a factor tonight. After allowing 65 PTS last week, the Rockets defense wants to get back on the field quickly and forget about their last performance. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Toledo is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. The Rockets are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite of between 3.5 and 10 PTS. Toledo is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played in November.
Rockets are 6-0 ATS last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 16-6 last 22 games against a team with a losing record.
Key Injuries - QB Austin Dantin (shoulder) is out.
Projected Score: 37 (OVER-Total of the Day)