Buffalo Bulls vs. Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
The Buffalo Bulls and the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at Fred C Yager Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Bulls listed as 3-point favorites versus the RedHawks, while the game's total has not yet been posted.
Naaman Roosevelt hauled in eight balls for 165 yards with three touchdowns for Buffalo in its 27-24 loss to Ohio in Week 11.
Ohio cashed as 1.5-point road underdogs, while the teams played OVER the 46-point total set by oddsmakers.
Miami (OH) was defeated 35-14 by Bowling Green in Week 11 as a 4.5-point underdog. That game's 49 points went UNDER the posted total of 59.
Current streak:
Buffalo has lost 3 straight games.
Miami (Ohio) has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Buffalo: 3-7 SU, 3-6 ATS
Miami (Ohio): 1-10 SU, 5-6 ATS
Buffalo most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 4-6
Miami (Ohio) most recently:
When playing in November are 2-8
When playing on turf are 1-9
After being outgained are 0-10
When playing within the conference are 1-9
A few trends to consider:
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami (Ohio)
Buffalo is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Miami (Ohio) is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Miami (Ohio) is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami (Ohio)'s last 5 games at home
Miami (Ohio) is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Next up:
Buffalo at Kent State, Friday, November 27
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Ball State Cardinals
The fans at Scheumann Stadium will be treated to a game between the Central Michigan Chippewas and the Ball State Cardinals when they take their seats on Wednesday.
Oddsmakers currently have the Chippewas listed as 16½-point favorites versus the Cardinals, while the game's total has not yet been posted.
Dan LeFeour ran for four touchdowns and threw for a pair, leading Central Michigan to a 56-28 victory over Toledo in Week 11. Central Michigan covered the 17.5-point spread, and the 84 points sailed OVER the posted total of 64.
LeFevour completed 29-of-36 for 341 yards while Bryan Schroeder rushed for 105 yards.
Ball State was defeated 26-20 by Northern Illinois in Week 11 as 16-point underdogs. That game's 46 points fell just UNDER the posted total of 46.5.
Current streak:
Ball State has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Central Michigan: 8-2 SU, 7-2 ATS
Ball State: 1-9 SU, 5-4 ATS
Central Michigan most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the conference are 8-2
Ball State most recently:
When playing in November are 8-2
When playing on turf are 1-9
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Central Michigan is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Central Michigan's last 6 games on the road
Central Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ball State
Central Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Ball State is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Central Michigan
Ball State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Central Michigan
Ball State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Central Michigan
Ball State is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games
Next up:
Central Michigan home to Northern Illinois, Friday, November 27
Ball State at Western Michigan, Tuesday, November 24
Game of the day: Central Michigan at Ball State
By Marc Lawrence
The Mid American Conference continues to bask under the ESPN lights Wednesday night when Central Michigan (8-2, 6-0) travels to Muncie to meet Ball State (1-9, 1-5) in an West Division battle at Scheumann Stadium. The game is televised on ESPNU.
The Chippewas opened as a 17-point favorite and the line has since moved to –17.5.
Tonight’s forecast
There is a 70-percent chance of rain, with temperatures in the mid-40s. Winds out of the east at 10 mph.
On the Ball
Under first year coach Stan Parrish, the one-win Cardinals have done a complete 180 degree U-turn from last season’s 12-win team. Ball State’s only victory came against winless Eastern Michigan on Oct. 24, a game in which BSU rushed the ball for 463 yards.
That was the first start for QB Tanner Justice, the backup who replaced injured Kelly Page. Justice, who passed for one-yard in his debut against EMU, had his best game against Northern Illinois last week, completing 11-of-19 passes for a career-best 134 yards. Justice threw for 79 yards in his first two starts.
"I've seen him improve," Cardinals coach Stan Parrish said. "He does what you tell him to do. He manages our team, and that's all we can ask right now."
RB MiQuale Lewis leads the team in rushing with 792 yards on 152 attempts, good for an average of 5.2 yards per carry. Lewis had a monster game against Eastern Michigan, rushing for 301 yards on 26 carries. The 5-6 senior tailback has gained 113 yards on the ground in his last two contests.
WR Briggs Orsbon leads the receiving corps with 46 receptions. After back-to-back 10-catch efforts against Temple and Bowling Green, Orsbon has been held in check the past three games with nine total receptions.
Mistakes have killed the Cardinals, who committed nine penalties in each of the past two games.
Chips away
What a difference a year makes. Central Michigan is 6-0 in conference play for the second year in a row. Last year the Chippewas dropped their final two conference games – to Ball State and Eastern Michigan.
After a brief hangover from its loss at Boston College, the Chippewas scored 49 consecutive points en route a 56-28 blowout win over Toledo last week.
CMU fell behind for the first time this season against a MAC team, but roared back with seven straight touchdowns as they moved closer to another West Division title. Twenty-eight of the points came off turnovers.
Quarterback Dan LeFevour, who has completed 70 percent of his passes this season, completed 16 consecutive passes against the Rockets and tossed two touchdown passes to move into 16th place in NCAA history with 92. The future NFL QB also scored four rushing touchdowns to become CMU's all-time rushing touchdowns leader with 45 in his illustrious career.
Wide receiver Antonio Brown, who leads the team with 69 receptions for 734 yards and eight TDs, showed no ill-effects from an injury suffered at Boston College. Brown caught 13 passes for 129 yards.
Central Michigan head coach Butch Jones looks forward to tonight’s contest.
“Any chance you get to play on center stage on national television, the only game on, you're selling your product. That's why it was critical that the product be seen by everyone… Any chance you get to sell your program is critical.”
Ugly stat of the week
Ball State coach Parrish is 3-40-1 SU as a head coach at the Division-1 FBS level. Inside those numbers Parrish is 6-12 ATS in lined home games, including 1-11 ATS versus .500 or less opposition and 5-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record.
From the archives
Home teams on Wednesdays are 26-13-1 ATS during the regular season, including 3-0 this season and 10-2 the last two years.
Central Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last five visits to Muncie.
Wednesday's MAC Tips
By Brian Edwards
Tired of gambling after the long football weekend and Tuesday’s marathon card of college hoops? No? Me neither!
Let’s look at a pair of MAC football games for Wednesday.
**Buffalo at Miami (OH.)**
Buffalo (3-7 straight up, 2-6 against the spread) has not been able duplicate its championship season of 2008. The Bulls have lost three in a row in heartbreaking fashion by seven combined points.
--Miami (1-10 SU, 5-6 ATS) lost its first seven games by double-digit margins, but it has been more competitive in recent weeks. In fact, the RedHawks are 3-1 ATS in their last four outings. They saw a 3-0 ATS surge end last week in a 35-14 home loss to Bowling Green as four-point underdogs.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Buffalo as a three-point favorite. As of early Tuesday night, most books had the Bulls favored by four.
Mike Haywood’s team has been an underdog in all four of its home games, posting a 3-1 spread record. Meanwhile, Turner Gill’s squad is 2-2 ATS on the road but it hasn’t been a road ‘chalk’ until this spot.
Buffalo is in the midst of a 2-6 ATS slide. The Bulls dropped a 27-24 decision to Ohio as 1 ½-point home favorites last Tuesday. They gave up a late touchdown in the final minute the previous week to lose 30-29 to Bowling Green as three-point home favorites.
Buffalo sophomore quarterback Zach Maynard has a 17/13 touchdown-interception ratio in his first year as a starter. His favorite target has been senior WR Naaman Roosevelt, who has 70 receptions for 954 yards and nine TDs.
Totals have been a wash for Buffalo (5-5) but the ‘over’ has hit in each of its last three games. The ‘under’ is 7-4 overall for the RedHawks, 3-1 in their home contests.
Kick-off is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.
**Central Michigan at Ball State**
LVSC opened Central Michigan (8-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) as a 20-point favorite. However, as of early Tuesday night, most spots had CMU favored by just 14-15 points. A total had yet to be released. The line move might be due to the look-ahead situation this spot represents for the Chippewas, who will host Northern Illinois next Friday to decide the West division (assuming the Huskies win this weekend at Ohio).
Central Michigan bounced back from a 31-10 loss at Boston College to slam Toledo 56-28 as a 17 ½-point home ‘chalk’ last Wednesday. Senior QB Dan LeFevour enjoyed another monster performance, shredding the Rockets for six touchdowns (four rushing, two passing) and 341 passing yards.
LeFevour already owns nearly every MAC record for QBs. He has completed better than 70 percent of his passes this season for 2,189 yards with an 18/5 TD-INT ratio. LeFevour also has a team-high 541 rushing yards and 13 touchdown runs.
It has been a long and hard fall from grace for Ball State (1-9 SU, 5-5 ATS) in 2009. This time last year, the Cardinals were undefeated and en route to the MAC title game. Now they are mired in a slump that’s resulted in 11 losses in their last 12 games dating back to last year.
Ball St. is winless in five home games, including a 23-16 loss to New Hampshire. The Cardinals are 1-3 ATS at home, finally hooking up their backers in their last home outing, a 20-17 loss to Ohio as six-point home ‘dogs.
Ball St. has been a double-digit underdog three times this year, cashing tickets in each instance (at Auburn, at Temple and at No. Illinois). Likewise, CMU is 3-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite, although we should note that each of those covers came at home.
The Chippewas are 3-1 both SU and ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings between these MAC adversaries. With that said, Ball St. won last year’s contest by a 31-24 count as a six-point road favorite.
The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for CMU, 5-1 in its road assignments. The ‘under’ is 7-3 overall for the Cardinals, 4-1 in their road games.
ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
I spoke to LVSC oddsmaker Mike Seba on Monday and he gave out these tentative lines for the SEC Championship Game and a pair of potential BCS matchups:
Florida -4.5 vs. Alabama
Florida -3 vs. Texas
Texas -2.5 vs. Alabama
South Carolina has lost three consecutive games and will take a 6-4 record into its regular-season finale at home against Clemson. However, the Gamecocks hooked up their backers in Saturday’s 24-14 loss to Florida as 17-point home underdogs. They are now 7-2 ATS when listed as double-digit ‘dogs on Steve Spurrier’s watch. And speaking of Spurrier, he was in a very nice rhythm calling plays all night against the Gators. Unfortunately for USC, Stephen Garcia’s interception on the first play of the fourth quarter with the ‘Cocks in field-goal range sealed their doom.
The ‘under’ is cashing tickets at a 7-2 clip for Illinois.
Boise St. QB Kellen Moore has to be a Heisman finalist. The sophomore QB has an incredible 32/3 TD-INT ratio and has the Broncos sporting an unbeaten record.
Central Michigan (8-2, 7-2 ATS) at Ball State (1-9, 5-5 ATS)
Central Michigan looks to remain the only unbeaten team in the Mid-American Conference and move another step closer to the West Division championship when it travels to Ball State Stadium for a divisional tussle with the Cardinals.
The Chippewas spotted Toledo leads of 7-0 and 14-7 last Wednesday – the first time all year they trailed a conference opponent – then scored six unanswered touchdowns en route to a 56-28 nationally televised rout, covering as a 17½-point home favorite. Star QB Dan LeFevour – four-year starter – stole the show again, accounting for six of his team’s eight touchdowns (2 passing, 4 rushing), and he finished 29 of 36 passing for 341 yards to go with 19 rushing yards on 14 carries, and Central Michigan rolled up 507 total yards.
The Chippewas lead Northern Illinois by one game in the MAC West Division. If Northern Illinois wins at Ohio on Saturday, those teams will square off for the division title at Central Michigan next week no matter the result of this game.
Ball State has followed up its only win of the season – a 29-27 victory over still-winless Eastern Michigan – with a pair of narrow losses to Ohio (20-17 at home) and Northern Illinois (26-20 on the road). On the bright side, the Cardinals covered as an underdog in both games, improving to 5-3 ATS in their last eight (5-2 ATS as a ‘dog). Ball State, which is 1-11 SU since starting last year 12-0, has scored 20 points or fewer in eight of its last 10 games (including four of its last five)
On the way to their perfect regular season last year, the Cardinals knocked off Central Michigan 31-24 as a six-point road favorite in a battle for the division title. Ball State ended a four-game SU and three-game ATS losing skid to the Chippewas with last year’s victory, despite getting outgained 466-407 and despite LeFevour’s 345-yard, two-TD passing day. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and CMU has cashed in five of its last six trips to Ball State Stadium.
Both teams can run the football – Central Michigan averages 169.7 rushing yards per game (4.6 per carry) and Ball State averages 163.2 rushing ypg (4.5 per carry) – but otherwise, the Chippewas are much stronger offensively. They put up 33.1 points, 402.5 total yards and 232.8 passing yards per game, while the Cardinals net just 20.5 points, 307 total yards and 143.8 passing yards per outing.
Central Michigan also has big advantages on defense, allowing 18 points and 341 yards per game (119 rushing ypg), compared with Ball State’s 28.6 points and 366.5 total yards allowed per contest (155.1 rushing ypg).
The Chippewas are on ATS runs of 37-15-3 overall, 11-5-2 on the road, 23-8-2 as a favorite, 5-1 as a chalk of more than 10 points, 23-7-2 against MAC foes and 18-6-2 versus losing teams. Ball State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven when catching more than 10 points and 4-1 in its last six in November, but it has failed to cover in five of six at home and four of five as a home pup.
The over is now 7-1 in Central Michigan’s last eight games, but otherwise the team is on “under” runs of 4-0 on the road, 4-1 as a road chalk, 4-1 on grass and 5-0 after a spread-cover. Ball State is riding “under” streaks of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 4-1 at home, 4-0 as an underdog and 8-2 in November. Finally, the last two series meetings in Ball State went over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Buffalo (3-7, 4-6 ATS) at Miami (Ohio) (1-10, 5-6 ATS)
Two MAC teams just playing for nothing but pride get national television exposure for the third straight week, with Buffalo visiting MAC East rival Miami (Ohio).
The Bulls have lost three straight games by a total of seven points, the last two at home to Bowling Green (30-29 as a three-point favorite) and Ohio (27-24 as a 1½-point chalk). Buffalo’s last four games (all against MAC opponents) were decided by four points or less, and its last five conference contests were decided by a total of 18 points, with the Buffs going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS.
Miami’s lone victory of the season came against Toledo on Halloween – 31-24 as a five-point home underdog – but the Redhawks followed that with a 34-32 loss at Temple (covering as a 17-point underdog) and a 35-14 setback to Bowling Green on Thursday as a four-point home pup. Despite last week’s non-cover, Miami is still 5-2 ATS in its last seven (all as an underdog), which follows a 4-15 ATS slide.
Since opening the season with a 23-17 upset win at UTEP as a 10½-point underdog, Buffalo is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the highway. Meanwhile, going back to the end of the 2007 season the Redhawks are 3-22 SU, including 2-15 in MAC play and 1-9 at home against Division I-A competition.
Buffalo averaged 18.6 ppg in its first five games, but its offense has come to life in the last five, putting up an average of 29 ppg, tallying 24 or more in each contest. Meanwhile, the Redhawks had scored season-highs of 31 and 32 points in consecutive games before mustering just the two touchdowns against Bowling Green last week. Miami, which was shutout in its first two games against Kentucky (42-0) and Boise State (48-0), has scored 14 points or less in six of its 11 games this year.
Buffalo ended a 10-game, all-time series losing skid to Miami with last year’s 37-17 rout at home, finishing with a 476-383 edge in total offense (216-142 rushing). The Bulls have covered in three straight meetings, including a 31-28 loss as a 6½-point underdog in their last trip to Fred Yager Stadium in 2007.
The Bulls have cashed in 11 of their last 14 road games, but they’ve failed to cover in seven straight games as a favorite. The Redhawks’ current 5-2 ATS overall run is offset by pointspread nosedives of 6-13 in MAC contests, 4-9 at home, 2-7 in November and 8-21-1 against teams with a losing record.
Buffalo is on “over” stretches of 7-2 on the road, 6-2 as a favorite, 25-10 in conference and 5-1 in November. On the other hand, Miami is on “under” runs of 5-2 overall (all as a ‘dog), 4-1 at home (all as a ‘dog) and 5-1 when playing on grass. Finally, the over is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings, with the last four in a row topping the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and OVER
C MICHIGAN (8 - 2) at BALL ST (1 - 9)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALL ST is 1-1 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
BALL ST is 1-1 straight up against C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO (3 - 7) at MIAMI OHIO (1 - 10)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI OHIO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI OHIO is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
C MICHIGAN at BALL ST
C MICHIGAN: 13-29 ATS Away off home game
BALL ST: 13-2 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games
BUFFALO at MIAMI OHIO
BUFFALO: 5-1 Over off home loss
MIAMI OHIO: 2-10 ATS vs. teams with losing record
BUFFALO vs. MIAMI (OHIO)
Buffalo is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami (Ohio)
Miami (Ohio) is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Miami (Ohio) is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. BALL STATE
Central Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ball State
Central Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Ball State is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Central Michigan
Ball State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Central Michigan
Tips and Trends
Central Michigan at Ball State
Central Michigan (-14.5, O/U 50): The MAC West conference leader plays their final road game of the regular season today. Central Michigan is undefeated in league play, and has only trailed on the scoreboard in one conference game. CMU has struggled to score on the road, which has led to 5 of 6 road games going under the posted total. Senior QB Dan LeFevour is one of the best QB's in the country. LeFevour is 9th all time in NCAA history with 1,058 completions. He is also 16th all time in NCAA history with 92 passing TD's.
Central Michigan is 5-1 ATS last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Central Michigan is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings in Ball State.
Key Injuries - RB Tim Phillips (ankle) is questionable.
DE Sam Williams (back) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (Side of the Day)
Ball State: Ball St. has one last chance to win a game at home. They've lost all 5 home games this season, and are 1-4 ATS at home. Ball St. is really struggling with their QB play, as their passing game has been held under 140 YDS in 4 consecutive games. QB Tanner Justice has struggled since taking over for Kelly Page. The Cardinals are playing scrappy defense, as they've held opponents to an average of 114 YDS rushing over the past 6 games. Besides a strong defensive effort, the Cardinals will need to be disciplined and avoid penalties today. The Cardinals have been called for 9 penalties in each of the past 2 games.
Ball State is 4-0 ATS last 4 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - QB Kelly Page (hand) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 14