Rutgers at South Florida: What Bettors Need to Know
It’s hard to figure out the Big East these days, as two-time defending champion Cincinnati is in the conference basement while perennial doormat Syracuse looks like the biggest challenger to first-place Pittsburgh.
This Rutgers-USF game could still have an impact on the conference race, as Rutgers has a 4-3 overall record and 1-1 mark in the Big East while USF is 4-3 and 1-2 in the conference.
The Scarlet Knights enter Wednesday’s game on a down note, having been blasted 41-21 by Pittsburgh on October 23. But certainly, the Rutgers players’ heads probably weren’t in that one as it came a week after Eric LeGrand, a defensive lineman, became paralyzed from the neck down while making a tackle against Army.
It also didn’t help that leading rusher Mohamed Sanu was dealing with a foot injury and carried just once for one yard, as Pitt outgained the Scarlet Knights 513-203. Sanu is much healthier with the time off.
South Florida enters Wednesday’s game off its best effort of the season - a 38-30 victory over Cincinnati. That was the Bulls’ first win this season over a major Division-I program. The USF offense had five touchdowns after not having scored a single one in the previous two games.
Last year, when these two met in New Jersey, Rutgers won 31-0 in the first regular-season shutout in USF history. Rutgers forced four turnovers, blocked a punt and recorded seven sacks. It was the fourth straight win for Rutgers in the series and it has rushed for more than 100 yards in all four.
Line movement
South Florida is a 10.5-point favorite with the total at 41.5. It’s a near 50/50 split on the side lean. The line opened at 9.5 at most books while the total has jumped a half a point at some books. South Florida is 3-4 ATS this year and 2-2 at home, while Rutgers is 1-6 ATS and 0-2 at home.
The quarterback story
Rutgers coach Greg Schiano is going to stick with Chas Dodd as the team’s starting quarterback. The true freshman has started the past three games, winning his first two starts. But he was ineffective in a 41-21 loss to Pitt and was pulled late in the game in favor of Tom Savage, the team's former starter and one of the top freshman QBs in the nation last year.
Schiano had said there would be a competition during the team's opening week and Savage had been dealing with some nagging injuries but is now healthy. Dodd, a true freshman, is 58 of 110 for 817 yards with five touchdown passes and three interceptions, while Savage started the first four games this season.
As for Daniels, he had been awful in the previous two games prior to beating Cincinnati. Against the Bearcats he was 13 of 16 for 286 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions and he also rushed for two scores. In the previous two games, Daniels had five interceptions.
In three losses, Daniels has thrown a total of nine interceptions. But in four wins, Daniels has just one total pick. He was held in check last year versus Rutgers and turned the ball over three times.
This and that
- Rutgers ranks last nationally in sacks allowed per game (4.71) and total sacks allowed (33). The offensive line has allowed 15 sacks in the past two games and Schiano promised some changes. Converted defensive lineman Andre Civil will see his first college snaps, likely at right tackle.
- South Florida is tied for ninth nationally in sacks per game.
- The over is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings and the underdog is also 4-1 in the past five. South Florida is just 1-5 ATS in its past six following a victory.
- A victory in this one would be the 100th in USF history.
Rutgers at South Florida Breakdown
The college football schedule has spoiled us with games every night of the week until Saturday. Next up: Rutgers at South Florida.
Rutgers at South Florida (-10.5, 42)
Offense:
Rutgers goes with Chas Dodd at quarterback again this week after he completed eight of his 19 pass attempts last week for 62 yards and a pick against Pitt. Rutgers ranks last nationally in sacks allowed (4.71 per game).
The Scarlet Knights split runs and carries pretty equally at 52 percent rush and 47 percent pass out of the Wildcat, but average less than 110 yards per game on the ground. Wideout Mohamed Sanu leads the club with 286 rushing yards.
Rutgers averages just over 21 points per game, while USF puts up 25.9.
South Florida quarterback B.J. Daniels fired nine interceptions in USF’s three losses but was 13 of 16 for 286 yards and two throwing majors and another pair on the ground. USF runs the ball 61 percent of the time and averages 148 rushing yards per game. Dontavia Bogan is their big receiving threat with 27 grabs for 414 yards.
Edge: USF
Defense:
USF only allows 18.6 points per game (20th nationally) on an average of 126.9 rushing yards and 215.1 passing yards. South Florida is ninth in the country in sacks per game.
However, despite giving up 41 points to Pitt, Rutgers still ranks 29th nationally in total defense and 25th in the country in scoring defense. They allow teams to convert only 34.6 percent of their third down attempts.
Rutgers blanked USF 31-0 last year with four turnovers and seven sacks.
Edge: Rutgers
Special teams:
Lindsey Lamar is a major weapon in the kick return game for South Florida averaging almost 30 yards per return. He also has a 94-yard return for a touchdown on his resume. The Bulls are a terrible kicking team, hitting only 58 percent of their field goals.
Rutgers is the eighth best team in the country in gross punting yards per game (276.8) and hits 71.4 percent of its field goals. The Scarlet Knights average 26 yards per kick return and 8.5 on punt returns.
Edge: Rutgers
From the files of the beat reporters
"You bring up the word Rutgers around here, everybody kind of goes 'ooh.'" You sit down and you start to watch the film and you understand why everybody feels the way they do," South Florida’s Skip Holtz said about the 31-0 and 49-16 losses to Rutgers.
“I see this game as an opportunity to get the bad taste out of our mouth. Every week you want to go out there and perform your best. We weren’t able to do that against Pittsburgh. We know we’re capable of playing better than that.” said Rutgers defensive tackle Scott Vallone about the 41-21 loss to Pitt.
Final score prediction:
South Florida 21, Rutgers 13
Rutgers at South Florida
By Brian Edwards
With the 2010 World Series now over, gamblers can look for even more mid-week games in the month of November. South Florida (4-3 straight up, 2-4 against the spread) will take on Rutgers in a Big East showdown tonight.
USF snapped out of a two-game slide and won its first league game two Fridays ago. The Bulls went up to Cincinnati and upset the Bearcats by a 38-30 count as nine-point road underdogs. B.J. Daniels played the best game of his season, erupting out of his own personal slump to complete 13-of-16 passes for 286 yards and a pair of touchdowns without being intercepted. He also had a pair of TD runs.
Rutgers (4-3 SU, 1-5 ATS) is still coping with the tragic injury suffered by junior defensive tackle Eric LeGrand, who was paralyzed below his neck on a special-teams play during a 23-20 win over Army on Oct. 16. In its only game since then, Greg Schiano’s team lost 41-21 at Pittsburgh as a 13 ½-point road underdog.
The Scarlet Knights and the Panthers were tied 14-14 at intermission, but Pitt scored 27 unanswered points to hook up its backers and stay unbeaten in Big East play.
Schiano will give the starting nod to Chas Dodd at quarterback this week. The redshirt freshman took over when sophomore Tom Savage injured his hand in an embarrassing home loss to Tulane. Savage, who started all 13 games as a true freshman, is now healthy and completed 2-of-3 passes for 46 yards and one touchdown when he replaced Dodd late in last week’s game.
"We're going to do whatever gives us the best chance to win," Schiano told ScarletNation.com. "They're both qualified. They're both prepared. They're both very comfortable with the plays."
Savage enjoyed an excellent freshman campaign, throwing 14 touchdown passes compared to just seven interceptions. However, his production was off prior to the hand injury on Oct. 2. Savage has only completed 52.1 percent of his passes for 445 yards with a 2/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
In other words, Schiano has handed the QB job to Dodd – at least for now. Dodd has connected on 52.7 percent of his throws for 817 yards with a 5/3 TD-INT ratio. He played his best game in his first career start Oct. 8 vs. UConn on ESPN. Dodd threw for 322 yards and two TDs without being picked off in a 27-24 win for RU as a five-point home underdog.
Like Savage, Daniels has endured a sophomore slump. In fact, he went into the win against Cincy with an abysmal 4/10 TD-INT ratio. In fairness to Daniels, though, he has been without two of his best WRs all year (more on that in Bonus Nuggets below) and has been adjusting to Skip Holtz’s new offensive system.
USF has won three of its four home games, going 1-2 ATS. In this spot, most betting shops have installed the Bulls as 10-point favorites with a total of 42. Bettors can take Rutgers to win outright for a plus-350 return (risk $100 to win $350). For first-half wagers, USF is a six-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 21.
RU is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS in a pair of true road games this year. As a road underdog during Schiano’s 10-year tenure, the Scarlet Knights are 19-13-1 ATS. Even better, they’re 9-3 ATS in such situations since 2006.
The ‘under’ is 4-2 overall for USF, 3-0 in its home games. Meanwhile, totals have been a wash for RU both overall (3-3) and in its road assignments (1-1). The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams.
USF beat RU by a 45-31 count in the first meeting in 20056, but the Scarlet Knights have won four in a row since the, taking the cash in the last three encounters. They trounced USF 31-0 last year as 1 ½-point home favorite in Piscataway.
The forecast calls for a 30 percent chance of showers and temperatures in the 70s. ESPN2 will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
According to multiple reports, Schiano has visited LeGrand in the hospital on a daily basis since his injury. A numer of his teammates have also visited lately and he's said to be in good spirits. LeGrand is expected to be moved out of the hospital to a rehab clinic soon.
According to the Tampa Tribune, Holtz is exploring a sixth year of eligibility for WR A.J. Love, who tore his ACL in the spring and has not played this season. Also, WR Sterling Griffin is going to be redshirted after dislocating his ankle over the summer. Love has started 19 career games and was the Bulls’ second-leading receiver in 2009. Griffin started 10 games as a true freshman and will be a third-year sophomore in 2011.
As a home favorite since 2001, USF owns an 18-12 spread record.
This space tries to give Schiano kudos at every given opportunity. Considering the circumstances, he has arguably had the most successful 10-year tenure of any coach in America. Sciano took over a moribund program and has turned into a perennial contender in the Big East. He has taken RU to five consecutive postseason appearances and it has won its last four bowl games.
Arkansas WR Greg Childs is out for the rest of the season after sustaining a knee injury in Saturday’s 49-14 home win over Vanderbilt. Childs has a team-high 46 catches for 659 yards and six touchdowns. The Razorbacks are three-point underdogs this week at South Carolina.
Check out the ‘Cuse, which is in second place in the Big East just one-half game behind loop-leading Pittsburgh. The Orange are an improbable 6-2 overall and 3-1 in Big East play, making Doug Marrone a leading candidate for National Coach of the Year honors. They finish with three of their last four games at the Carrier Dome. That four-game stretch looks like this: vs. Louisville, at Rutgers, vs. UConn and vs. BC.
RU is 1-1 in conference play, while USF is 1-2. But nobody has been eliminated in the Big East yet, especially with Pitt finishing the season on the road in three of its last four games.
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Tips and Trends
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at South Florida Bulls
SCARLET KNIGHTS: Rutgers enters tonight off their worst performance of the season, a 21-41 SU road defeat on the road at Pittsburgh. The Scarlet Knights have had some time to think about that loss, and go right back on the road for the 3rd time this season tonight. Rutgers is 4-3 SU this season, yet only 1-6 ATS. The Scarlet Knights are 1-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season. A major problem for the Scarlet Knights this year has been their anemic offense, averaging only 21.1 PPG this year. Rutgers has the 19th worst rushing attack in the nation, averaging only 101 YPG on the ground. Defensively, only 2 opponents have scored more than 20 PTS against the Scarlet Knights this season. Rutgers is going to have to play extra well tonight, considering South Florida has plenty of motivation for this game. Last year, Rutgers beat South Florida 31-0 SU as a 1.5 favorite. The Scarlet Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Scarlet Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in November. Rutgers is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Rutgers is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Scarlet Knights are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Scarlet Knights are 8-0 ATS last 8 games as a road underdog between 3.5 and 10 points.
Over is 4-0 last 4 conference games.
Key Injuries - LB Manny Abreu (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 17 (SIDE of the Day)
BULLS: (-10.5, O/U 42) South Florida is coming off their best performance of the season, a 38-30 SU win over Cincinnati away from home as a 9.5 underdog. The Bulls are 4-3 SU on the year, and 1 win closer to bowl eligibility. South Florida is 3-4 ATS overall this season, including 2-2 ATS at home. Tonight represents only the 2nd time this season the Bulls will be a single digit favorite. QB B.J. Daniels leads an offense that had their best performance against an FBS opponent this year, scoring 38 PTS. Daniels was 13-16 for 286 YDS and accounted for 4 TD's against Cincinnati. Defensively, South Florida is only allowing 18.6 PPG this year, 20th best in the nation. The Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. South Florida is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played in November. The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. South Florida is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win.
Bulls are 6-16 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-3 last 10 conference games.
Key Injuries - DB John Lejiste (concussion) is probable.
Projected Score: 21