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NCAAF News and Notes Wednesday 12/30

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Humanitarian Bowl: Bowling Green Falcons vs. Idaho Vandals

The Bowling Green Falcons and the Idaho Vandals will both be gunning for a victory when they meet at Bronco Stadium in the Humanitarian Bowl.

Oddsmakers currently have the Falcons listed as 1½-point favorites versus the Vandals, while the game's total is sitting at 68.

Bowling Green flew out to a 24-0 first quarter lead en route to a 38-24 victory over Toledo in Week 13. Bowling Green covered the 7.5-point spread, while the 62 points fell UNDER the posted total of 66.5.

Idaho couldn't fight back in the fourth, losing 52-49 to Utah State at the Kibbie Dome in Week 13.

Utah State covered as a 3-point road underdog in that game while the final score played OVER the 70-point total.

Team records:
Bowling Green: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS
Idaho: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS

Bowling Green most recently:
When playing in December are 2-1
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 3-7

Idaho most recently:
When playing in December are 1-0
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the conference are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Bowling Green is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Bowling Green's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Idaho's last 5 games
Idaho is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Idaho is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

Holiday Bowl: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Arizona Wildcats

The Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Arizona Wildcats will both be trying to pick up a win when they battle at Qualcomm Stadium in the Holiday Bowl.

Odds aren't yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.

Alex Henery kicked four field goals in Nebraska's 13-12 loss to Texas in Week 14 as 14-point underdogs. Those 25 points fell UNDER the posted total of 47.

Arizona took advantage of an unmotivated USC team, winning 21-17 at Los Angeles Coliseum in Week 14.

Arizona covered as a 7-point road underdog while the final played UNDER the 49.5-point total.

Team records:
Nebraska: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS
Arizona: 8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS

Nebraska most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on grass are 4-6
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 8-2

Arizona most recently:
When playing in December are 5-1
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
Nebraska is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Nebraska's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

 
Posted : December 27, 2009 7:37 pm
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BOWLING GREEN (7 - 5) vs. IDAHO (7 - 5)

Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
IDAHO is 27-47 ATS (-24.7 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
IDAHO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
IDAHO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NEBRASKA (9 - 4) vs. ARIZONA (8 - 4)

Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 33-58 ATS (-30.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

BOWLING GREEN vs. IDAHO
Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Bowling Green is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Idaho is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Idaho is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

NEBRASKA vs. ARIZONA
Nebraska is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Nebraska's last 9 games
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

Bowling Green vs. Idaho

Bowling Green
6-0 ATS Away off BB conference games
9-2 Under off SU win

Idaho
4-13 ATS after allowing 37+ points
4-16 ATS off SU loss

Nebraska vs. Arizona

Nebraska
10-3 Under this season
7-1 Under as neutral field underdog

Arizona
33-58 ATS as favorite
35-54 ATS off ATS win

 
Posted : December 27, 2009 7:49 pm
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Bowling Along
By Bodog

We’re in the middle of one of the craziest bowl seasons in recent memory – and the big college football clashes are still to come. Head coaches are leaving (or not), teams are suspending players (and head coaches), and somewhere in the middle of all that, there are actually some very good games going on. Nothing like a little off-field chaos to make the college football lines that much more vulnerable.

Humanitarian Bowl: Bowling Green vs. Idaho from Bronco Stadium at 4:30 p.m. EST

Idaho (7-5 SU and ATS) deserve praise for making it to a bowl game for the first time since 1998, when they won the Humanitarian Bowl over Southern Miss in an epic upset. The odds aren’t stacked up quite as high this year; Idaho is a an underdog (1.5) against Bowling Green, but it would still be an upset if the Vandals were to win.

Idaho was all offense and no defense coming out of the easy WAC, which helped the 'over' go 8-4. Bowling Green has seen the 'under' go 7-5 and has more of a balanced squad coming out of the MAC with significantly better special teams. Idaho gets the benefit of playing on the blue turf at Boise State’s Bronco Stadium, where the weather people are predicting a 40 percent chance of rain or snow. The best player will be on BG's squad, wide receiver Freddie Barnes (138 catches, 16 TDs, 1,551 receiving yards).

Holiday Bowl: No. 20 Arizona vs. No. 22 Nebraska from Qualcomm Stadium at 8:00 p.m. EST

The best-looking of these four bowls features arguably the best player in college: Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh, who earned the AP nod for Player of the Year despite losing out on the Heisman Trophy. Add some poor offense to Suh’s defense, and total players have watched the 'under' go 10-3 in Nebraska's 13 games. The Huskers are also one-point favorites against Arizona despite having the longer trip to Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego.

The Wildcats are considerably better on offense with Michigan State transfer Nick Foles (19 TDs, 8 INTs) at quarterback. Both teams will be a bit disappointed, though, after missing out on more lucrative BCS bowls. This could very well turn into another defensive war of attrition. Make a note that Arizona has seen the 'under' go 5-1 the last six games.

 
Posted : December 29, 2009 11:03 am
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What Bettors Need To Know: Humanitarian Bowl
By Sean Murphy

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Idaho Vandals (+2, 68)

Betting the numbers

The oddsmakers opened the Falcons as 1-point favorites, but the line has since been bet up to -2 at most outlets.

They’re expecting a tightly-contested game, but the betting public has other ideas, currently backing Bowling Green at a 2-to-1 clip.

Action has been relatively split on the total, so it’s not surprising that the number has held steady since opening at 68.

Bowling for dollars

The Bowling Green Falcons were one of the best bets in the nation down the stretch, cashing in each of their final four regular season games. Their offense really turned things around after a dismal September that saw them score only 75 points in four games. From October onward, the Falcons put up at least 30 points in seven of eight games.

There’s no debate, the Falcons will have the best player on the field in WR Freddie Barnes. He finished the season with a career-high 16 touchdown receptions to go along with two rushing scores. He not only led the nation in touchdowns, but also in receptions with 138. In fact, he needs just five catches to break the all-time record of 142, which was set in 1989.

Where the Falcons are lacking is in their ground game and on defense. They average just 83 rush yards per game on 3.0 yards per rush and give up over 26 points per game on 396 total yards per game. That’s a recipe for disaster for a favorite in Bowl season.

Putting the ‘O’ in Idaho

If you thought the Falcons were a bad defensive team, wait until you see the Vandals. Idaho finished the regular season allowing 35.5 points per game on nearly 425 total yards per game. The Vandals held their own against the run, only because teams chose to beat them through the air, where they allow 8.2 yards per pass play.

The good news is that Idaho can score. The Vandals average close to 32 points per game on over 450 total yards per game. Their passing attack is one of the best in the nation, averaging 291 pass yards per game on 9.5 yards per pass play.

Idaho pulled off a rare feat this season, scoring at least 45 points in two losses. That’s not something they should be proud of, but it does give you an idea as to why this total sits in the high 60s.

Home field advantage?

The Vandals will have the opportunity to play a Bowl game in a WAC venue here at Boise State. Head coach Robb Akey was pleased with his team’s Bowl draw.

“We’re very excited to be representing (the Western Athletic Conference) in the Humanitarian Bowl. It’s great that this is the bowl we’re going to, too. It’s our state capitol. We have a ton of alums in the community. It’s going to be an awesome time.”

The Falcons last played at Bronco Stadium on September 13th, 2008 and hung tough against Boise State, losing by only 13 points.

Injury report

The Vandals will need a healthy Nathan Enderle if they’re to have any shot of keeping up with the Falcons in this one. The Vandals QB missed time late in the season but did return to throw for 262 yards and three touchdowns against Utah State. For the season, he threw for over 2,600 yards and 18 touchdowns. He is listed as probable due to a shoulder injury.

Bowling Green is fairly healthy heading into this game. The Falcons will be without a pair of wide receivers in Tyrone Pronty and Calvin Wiley. That’s nothing new as Wiley didn’t play at all during the regular season and Pronty was used sparingly, with just 10 catches for 65 yards and a touchdown. Falcons defensive tackle Kevin Alvarado (2.5 sacks) will not be available for this game after being charged with assault in November.

 
Posted : December 29, 2009 11:30 pm
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What Bettors Need To Know: Holiday Bowl
By SCOTT COOLEY

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Arizona Wildcats (+2.5, 40)

The 32nd installment of the Holiday Bowl commences on Wednesday at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. The game features a matchup between the Big 12 and Pac-10 conferences with the Nebraska Cornhuskers squaring off against the Arizona Wildcats.

Line dance

The game opened as a ‘pick’ and slowly swung in favor of Arizona to as high as 1.5, but the Cornhuskers have since picked up heavy steam and made them a 2.5-point favorite. A low opening total of 41 was likely spurred by two Top 25 defenses and has now dropped to 39.5 in some markets.

How they got here

Nebraska compiled a 9-4 record behind a porous offense and suffocating defense. The Cornhuskers boast the second-ranked scoring defense (11.2 ppg) and ninth-ranked total defense (284.5 ypg) in the nation.

The Huskers offense sputtered the second half of the season, finishing the year ranked 102nd in total offense. In the Big 12 title game versus Texas, Nebraska gained only five first downs and 106 yards of total offense. Quarterback Zac Lee hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in his last five outings and was held to less than 75 yards passing during three of those games.

Sixth-year coach Mike Stoops guided Arizona to its best season (8-4) since 1998 when the program went 12-1. Sophomore quarterback Nick Foles became one of the Pac-10’s most efficient gunslingers this year, throwing for 2,438 yards and 19 touchdowns against eight interceptions.

This game will mark the third time these two teams have met. Arizona defeated Nebraska 23-20 in this same Holiday Bowl 11 years ago as a 3-point underdog. The only other matchup came in Lincoln in 1961 which resulted in a 14-14 tie.

Motivation factor

If one more second ticks off the clock Nebraska is the Big 12 champion and Colt McCoy is thrown into the all-time brain fart faction with guys like Chris Webber. The Huskers were one second away from playing in a BCS bowl as the Big 12 representative.

''From one of the best feelings I've ever had to one of the worst feelings I've ever had,'' Lee said after the loss to Texas. ''I don't really have a way to describe the way I feel right now.''

Arizona was six seconds away from defeating Oregon on Nov. 21, but allowed Jeremiah Masoli to find Ed Dickson in the end zone that sent the game into overtime. If the Wildcats keep the Ducks from scoring, they are representing the Pac-10 in the program’s first Rose Bowl appearance.

Both of these teams have to be somewhat disappointed to be in the Holiday Bowl after being seconds away from playing in a BCS game.

King Kong

For the casual college football fan, Ndamukong Suh flew under the radar most of the season. After collecting 12 tackles and 4.5 sacks in the Big 12 championship, the All-World defensive tackle put his name on the map and finished fourth in the Heisman voting while collecting hardware after winning the Lombardi Award.

“Certainly that's a great measure to go up against a great player like him,” Stoops said. “It's a great challenge for our players. We're going to have to play very well up front offensively, and we have all year.”

Suh led Nebraska with 82 tackles, 23 tackles for a loss and 12.0 sacks. The 6-4, 300-pounder is projected to go No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft.

In the trenches

The Huskers D-line totaled 42 sacks on the season while the Wildcats O-line surrendered 11 sacks. The Arizona offense operates behind the running game and short passes from Foles. Suh and the gang will have to get to Foles quickly in order to bring him down and disrupt the passing attack.

Arizona tailback Nic Grigsby is expected to return after being limited since Week 4 with a nagging shoulder injury and missing four of the last five games.

Run to the border

San Diego is in close proximity to the Mexico border, but Coach Stoops has removed all temptation for his players.

“We turned off Tijuana to them,” he said. “It was off limits. Nothing good has been happening down there for some time.”

Trend tracker

These two teams combined for an 8-17 over/under record this season. The under is 11-3 in the Cornhuskers last 14 games.

Nebraska is 2-3 straight up in its last five bowl appearances and 3-2 ATS during that stretch.

Arizona is 3-0 in its last three bowl games but 1-1-1 ATS in that span.

 
Posted : December 29, 2009 11:31 pm
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Bountiful Points for Boise Bowl Game
By Doug Upstone

The opening bowl game on the Wednesday lineup has two teams in sharp contrast to what is expected later the same evening in a different bowl matchup. Why on earth would any sane person desire to watch Idaho and Bowling Green play football? Well, if you made the time for Temple and UCLA, this has a much larger potential for entertainment value with total listed at 68 points and besides, who doesn't like a to watch a game on the Smurf Turf?

Idaho's first winning season since 1999 was a tail of two separate campaigns. The first part of the season has the folks from Moscow going nuts as the Vandals were 6-1 and 7-0 ATS, making bettors unbelievably pleased. When the schedule picked, the defense wore down and Idaho allowed 50 points per game in finishing 1-4 and 0-5 ATS. The passing game was special all season in finishing 12th nationally.

Bowling Green also finished 7-5 SU and ATS during the regular season, having the almost complete opposite year. The Falcons began 1-4 (2-3 ATS) and had a soaring finish with 6-1 and 5-2 ATS close. The Bowling Green pass offense was even better in ranking 8th overall and the defense forced 11 turnovers is 4-0 SU and ATS close of regular season.

Other reasons to watch are some of the players involved. Bowling Green has receiver Freddy Barnes, who is five catches away from setting the NCAA record with 143 receptions in the season. Barring injury, this is the closest thing to a lock in this contest, since Barnes averages over 10 catches a game for a team that is 8-1 ATS away from home after the first month of the season over the last two years.

Idaho doesn't have a star exactly, just a number of player to keep an eye. Junior quarterback Nathan Enderle has a strong arm and leads a down the field passing game that averaged 9.5 yards per attempt, better than two yards more than what opponents allowed. The Vandals have a trio of running backs and they will be important if Idaho is to win, since the defense can't stay on the field for long (allow 35.5 PPG) and coach Robb Akey doesn't want one-dimensional attack. Though Idaho can be expected to be pumped up for rare bowl appearance, they've shown an inclination of having a tough time turning negatives around with 3-12 ATS record after two or more consecutive straight up losses the last few years.

Bowling Green has been a streaky bowl team at 4-4, losing first three, winning next four, before being dismantled by Tulsa 63-7 in GMAC Bowl in 2008. The Falcons are 1-5 and 2-4 ATS vs. other postseason participants.

This is Idaho's second-ever bowl experience as part of the FBS universities. They played in this very game 11 years ago and pulled one the bigger outright upsets in downing Southern Miss 42-35 as 17.5-point dogs. This is first time a MAC squad has played in this bowl and the underdog has covered four of last five.

Betonline.com has Bowling Green as a one-point choice after opening as a single digit underdog. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS on the road vs. poor passing defenses allowing completion percentage of 58 percent or worse. Presuming the line holds, Idaho is 9-4 ATS as an underdog and 9-2 ATS after surrendering 450 or more yards in next game, though unfamiliar territory with this much time off for a bowl experience.

ESPN will have it live in Boise at 4:30 Eastern and watch guard Idaho guard Mike Iupati, looks like sure-fire NFL player.

 
Posted : December 29, 2009 11:41 pm
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Holiday Bowl showcases defense
By Doug Upstone

The chant "D-Fence" might be ringing around Qualcomm Park for this addition of the 2009 Holiday Bowl. If this is low-scoring defense struggle, don't be surprised, since Nebraska ranks ninth in total defense and Arizona comes in 20th among FBS schools. Those who watched the Big 12 championship game, viewed just how good defensive tackle Nudamukong Suh and the rest of the Nebraska defense is in almost taking down Texas.

Nebraska (9-4, 8-4 ATS) was a foot away from an upset of the Longhorns and a BCS berth in the Big 12 title game. Instead, the Longhorns winning field goal snuck inside the upright. Now the Cornhuskers must regroup and prepare for Arizona who can also play a little D. The children of the corn are 8-3 ATS against teams with winning records.

The Wildcats finished 11th in the country against the run and they will look to corral Roy Helu, one of the more underrated backs in the country. Quarterback Zac Lee does not appear to pose a threat, since he has neither the arm, accuracy nor poise under pressure to run long drives against a defense like Arizona. The Cats are 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 non-conference clashes and can turn some heads with a win in San Diego.

For long time Holiday Bowl aficionados, this is the second ever rematch, with these teams having competed in 1998. The Wildcats (8-4, 6-6 ATS) won 23-20 on that day and they will be after a second trophy.

Arizona's season took off when Nick Foles took over as quarterback, giving them diversity on offense. The Wildcats will face a very good Nebraska pass defense and he will have to make quick reads and release the ball for a team that is 9-3 ATS as underdogs.

For all of Nebraska's previous excellence, they are pedestrian 23-22 and 16-15 ATS after the regular season. The line movement has been wild on this matchup. The Cornhuskers started as favorites, were sent to underdogs by early bettors, with the late money reestablishing them as 2.5-point favorites at Sportbet.com. No matter who is the favorite, it's been a good thing in this spot with 10-3 SU and ATS in this encounter since 1996.

Arizona has a three bowl winning streak, however it dates back to 1997 and they are 6-7-1 and 6-4-1 ATS all-time. Since 1998, this has been a Big 12-Pac 10 tilt, with the teams from out west 8-3 ATS. In the last dozen years, the Big 12 is 3-9 ATS.

Both defenses would seem to have decided edges over respective offenses, but both could force turnovers or create field position advantages that could lead to points, thus the Under isn't a guarantee.

ESPN has this surely physical battle at 8:00 Eastern and Nebraska's outstanding kicker Alex Henery could be the difference in a tight tilt.

 
Posted : December 29, 2009 11:41 pm
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Bowling Green (7-5 SU and ATS) vs. Idaho (7-5 SU and ATS)

Two teams headed in opposite directions square off at Bronco Stadium when Bowling Green takes on an Idaho squad making only its second-ever postseason appearance.

The Falcons rattled off four consecutive wins (SU and ATS) to close the season in third place in the Mid-American Conference’s East Division, with the offense leading the way by scoring 30 points or more in each of the final four contests. In its finale, Bowling Green topped Toledo 38-24 as a 7½-point underdog, with RB Willie Geter leading the charge with 114 yards rushing and three TDs.

The Vandals ended the regular season by losing three straight (SU and ATS) and four of their last five (0-5 ATS), getting edged in a shootout by Utah State in the finale 52-49, failing as a three-point home favorite. Idaho placed fourth in the Western Athletic Conference after starting the season 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS.

Bowling Green, which missed the postseason last year, is playing in its fourth bowl game in the last seven years. The Falcons’ last bowl appearance was a disaster, as they got destroyed by Tulsa 63-7 in the 2008 GMAC Bowl, never threatening to cover as a 5½-point underdog in what was the biggest blowout in bowl history. That loss snapped Bowling Green’s four-game postseason winning streak. Idaho’s only bowl appearance came in 1998 when the Vandals edged Southern Mississippi 42-35, winning outright as 17½-point underdogs.

This is the first-ever meeting between these schools.

Falcons QB Tyler Sheehan, who threw a pair of TD passes in the regular-season finale against Toledo, finished the regular season completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 3,664 yards with 23 TDs and just six INTs. His top target is electrifying WR Freddie Barnes, who led the nation with 138 catches for 1,548 yards, and with five receptions today he’ll set the NCAA record for catches in a season. Bowling Green averages 27.3 points and 393.8 total yards per game, but only 83.6 rushing ypg. Defensively, the Falcons give up 26.2 points and 396 yards per outing, including a whopping 155.8 rushing ypg.

Idaho’s offense is averaging 31.8 points per contest (25th in the nation) and 450.9 total yards per game (10th) with a balanced offense that nets more than 290 ypg through the air and more than 160 ypg on the ground. QB Nathan Enderle is ranked seventh in the nation with a 122.75 QB rating and he passed for 2,666 yards with 18 touchdown throws against nine INTs. Like the Falcons, though, the Vandals struggle defensively, yielding 35.5 points and 424.8 total yards per game (268.9 passing; 155.8 rushing).

The Falcons soar into this one on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 4-0 as a favorite, 5-1 after a straight-up win and 6-2 when playing on turf. Idaho is on ATS slides of 0-5 overall, 6-21 after a straight-up loss and 7-19 after a non-cover, but the Vandals have covered in four straight non-conference games and five of seven against winning teams.

Bowling Green has stayed under the posted total in four of six overall and five of its last six after a straight-up win, while Idaho is on “over” streaks of 8-4 on the season (7-2 last nine)l, 7-2 against winning teams, 5-1 as an underdog and 8-1 in non-conference action.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOWLING GREEN

(20) Nebraska (9-4, 8-5 ATS) vs. (22) Arizona (8-4, 6-5 ATS)

The Cornhuskers, who just missed winning the Big 12 title and when Texas scored a last-second field goal, will try to make it six of seven wins to close the season when they battle Arizona at Qualcomm Stadium.

Nebraska, champs of the Big 12 North Division, was on the verge of earning itself a BCS bowl invitation and ending the Longhorns’ national title hopes until Texas kicked a 46-yard field goal as time expired to win the Big 12 championship game 13-12 on Dec. 5. The Huskers easily cashed as 14-point underdogs, snapping a 2-5 ATS slide. However, the SU defeat ended a five-game winning streak.

Arizona closed the season with consecutive road wins (1-1 ATS), beating rival Arizona State 20-17 on Nov. 28 (also on a last-second field goal), and then going to the Coliseum in Los Angeles and upsetting USC 21-17 as a seven-point underdog on Dec. 5. The Wildcats finished the regular season tied for second place is the Pac-10, even with Stanford and Oregon State.

The Huskers, winners of three of their last four postseason appearances, beat Clemson 26-21 in the Gator Bowl last Jan. 1, pulling off the upset as 2½-point underdogs. Arizona returned to the bowl season last year after a 10-year hiatus and beat BYU 31-21 as a three-point favorite, improving to 3-0 SU in its last three bowl outings.

Prior to last year’s Las Vegas Bowl, the Wildcats’ previous bowl appearance came in the 1998 Holiday Bowl against Nebraska, and Arizona scored a 23-20 upset win, cashing as three-point underdogs.

Everything Nebraska does revolves around a defense that is second in the nation in points allowed (just 11.2 per game) and ninth in total yards allowed (284.2 per game). The Huskers, who held nine opponents to 13 points or less and gave up more than 20 points just once, also finished second in the country with 42 quarterback sacks. Heisman Trophy finalist Ndamukong Suh led the charge with 12 sacks, including dropping Texas QB and fellow Heisman finalist Colt McCoy 4½ times in the Big 12 title game, while also adding 12 tackles in that contest, nine of which led to zero or negative yards.

While Nebraska’s defense was rock solid all year, the same can’t be said for an offense that netted just 317.2 total yards per game, including 176 passing ypg. Take away three blowout wins over Sun Belt Conference teams in which they scored 49, 38 and 55 points, the Huskers averaged just 17.7 ppg.

Arizona also gets strong play from its defense, ranking 21st in the Football Bowl Subdivision at 315.8 total ypg, and the unit allowed 17 points or less and two touchdowns or fewer in four of its last six games. Offensively, QB Nick Foles (66.1 percent, 2,453 yards, 19 TDs, 8 INTs) was the fourth-rated passer in the Pac-10, and the Wildcats got a combined 1,100 yards and nine TDs from RBs Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin.

The Cornhuskers are on positive ATS runs of 5-0 in non-conference action, 5-2 in December, 5-2 after a spread-cover and 8-3 against teams with winning records. Arizona is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference contests and 16-33 ATS in its last 49 games after a spread-cover, but the Wildcats cashed in six of their last nine overall and are on additional ATS surges of 4-1 against winning teams and 4-0 in December.

Led by its stout defense and inconsistent offense, Nebraska is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 11-3 overall, 4-1 in non-conference action, 5-1 in bowl action, 4-0 in neutral site games and 4-1 in December. Arizona has stayed below the posted total in five of six overall, five straight in December and four straight after a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

 
Posted : December 30, 2009 6:45 am
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Wednesday's Bowl Tips
By Brian Edwards

The action for bettors of college football starts on the smurf turf today at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. That’s where the Humanitarian Bowl will be played in Boise between Idaho from out of the WAC and Bowling Greeen from the MAC. Then in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego, Nebraska and Arizona will collide in a Big 12-Pac-10 showdown. Let’s take a closer look at both contests.

**Bowling Green vs. Idaho**

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Bowling Green (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) as a one-point favorite with a total of 65½. As of early this morning, betting shops were all over the place. Some still had the Falcons as one-point ‘chalk,’ while others had the game at a pick 'em or with the Vandals as one-point favorites. The total was at 68 1/2 at most spots.

Idaho (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) is making its second bowl appearance in school history and its first since 1998. The Vandals beat So. Miss in the ’98 Humanitarian Bowl 42-35 as 17-point underdogs.

During his third season at the helm in Moscow, Robb Akey led Idaho into the postseason after a 2-10 record in 2008. The Vandals won six of their first seven games, taking the cash in all seven of those contests. They did limp down the stretch, however, losing four of their last five games, going 0-5 versus the number in the process.

This is Idaho’s second trip to Bronco Stadium in Boise this year. The Vandals lost a 63-25 decision at Boise St. on Nov. 14, as Chris Petersen’s squad covered the spread as a 32-point home favorite.

Upon accepting the school’s invite to Boise, Akey told the Associated Press, "We're very excited to be representing our conference in the Humanitarian Bowl. It's great that this is the bowl we're going to, too. It's our state capitol. We have a ton of alums in the community. It's going to be an awesome time...It's the best time of year and we're going to be a part of it."

Bowling Green won each of its last four games both SU and ATS to garner a postseason invite during Dave Clawson’s first year at the school. The Falcons are coming off a 38-24 home win over Toledo as 7 ½-point home favorites. Willie Geter ran for 114 yards and three touchdowns, while quarterback Tyler Sheehan found Freddie Barnes for a pair of TD passes.

Barnes will be the best player on the field Wednesday afternoon. He was a first-team All-American selection after leading the nation in receptions (138) and TD catches (16). Barnes was third in the country in receiving yards with 1,551. He had an eye-popping 22 receptions for 278 yards in a 36-35 in at Kent St.

Sheehan completed 64.4 percent of his throws for 3,664 yards with a 23/6 touchdown-interception ratio. Over the last two seasons, Sheehan has a 43/15 TD-INT ratio.

Idaho junior QB Nathan Enderle threw for 2,666 yards with an 18/9 TD-INT ratio.

Two seasons ago, Bowling Green was in the GMAC Bowl and took a thumping from Tulsa by a 63-7 count as a 5½-point underdog. The Falcons have played on the smurf turf before, losing 20-7 at Boise St. last year as a 17-point road underdog. In ’05, BSU spanked BGU 48-20 as a 7½-point home ‘chalk.’

Bowling Green went 3-3 ATS as a single-digit favorite during the regular season. Meanwhile, Idaho is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in its nine games as an underdog.

The ‘over’ is 7-2 in Idaho’s last nine games, 8-4 overall. The Vandals had five games with totals in the 60s and the ‘over’ went 3-2 in those situations.

The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for the Falcons.

ESPN will have the telecast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Nebraska vs. Arizona**

LVSC opened this game as a pick ‘em with a total of 42 ½. As of early this morning, most spots had Nebraska (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 40 ½. Gamblers can back the Wildcats to win outright for a plus-115 payout (risk $100 to win $115).

Arizona (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) is going bowling for a second straight year for the first time since 1997-1998. Mike Stoops’s team won five of its last seven games both SU and ATS, including a 21-17 win at USC as a seven-point road underdog in its regular-season finale. Nick Foles threw for 239 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Trojans. His 36-yard scoring strike to Juron Criner with 3:14 left in the final stanza proved to be the game winner.

Nebraska had to check into the Heartbreak Hotel after losing 13-12 to Texas in the Big 12 title game. The Cornhuskers appeared to have pulled the stunning upset as 14-point underdogs when Colt McCoy threw an incomplete pass that ended with no time left on the clock. However, the official put on more tick back on the clock, allowing the Longhorns to win on Hunter Lawrence’s 46-yard field goal as time expired (again). The 25 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 45 ½-point total.

Bo Pelini’s team won five consecutive games to end the regular season, but it was only 2-3 versus the number in those five spots. The Cornhuskers are 2-1 ATS as single-digit favorites.

Nebraska is all about its defense that’s ranked second in the country behind only Alabama, allowing just 11.2 points per game. This unit is led by Outland Trophy winner and Heisman finalist Ndamukong Suh, who is completely unblockable and gave Texas and the rest of Nebraska’s foes fits.

Arizona owns a 3-2 spread record in five underdog spots in 2009.

In its first postseason appearance since 1998, Arizona captured a 31-21 win over BYU as a three-point favorite in last year’s Las Vegas Bowl.

Foles has connected on 66.1 percent of his passes for 2,453 yards with a 19/8 TD-INT ratio. Meanwhile, Nebraska QB Zac Lee has posted subpar numbers with a 13/10 TD-INT ratio.

Arizona defensive coordinator Mark Stoops, the brother of ‘Zona’s head coach, is leaving the Wildcats to take the same job at FSU. However, he has remained with the ‘Cats to coach this bowl game.

The ‘under’ is 10-3 overall for Nebraska, 7-5 overall for ‘Zona.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Northwestern owns a 17-11 spread record in 28 underdog spots during Pat Fitzgerald’s tenure. The Wildcats are 7½-point ‘dogs against Auburn in the Capital One Bowl from Orlando on New Year’s Day.

During Mack Brown’s 12-year reign at Texas, the Longhorns are 11-5 ATS when listed as underdogs.

Alabama is 7-1 ATS in its last eight single-digit ‘chalk’ spots.

Since UF’s Urban Meyer resigned and then un-resigned to take a leave of absence, the Gators have gone from 11-point favorites to 13-point ‘chalk’ against Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl.

vegasinsider.com

 
Posted : December 30, 2009 7:10 am
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Humanitarian Bowl

Idaho allowed 50 ppg in losing four of last five games, but because they started season 6-0; big question for Vandals is health of its QB Enderle, who hurt his shoulder during season. Idaho is 1-3 vs bowl teams, losing by 10-25-38 points to Fresno-Nevada-Boise- they beat No Illinois by 3. Vandals have four senior starters on OL, but they're ranked in bottom 20 of country in six different defensive categories.

Bowling Green won six of last seven games after 1-4 start; three of their five losses were by 7 points- they scored 20 or less points in four of the five games. Falcons are 1-5 vs bowl teams (beat Troy State by 17); their senior QB Sheehan is 7th in country in total offense. WR Barnes needs five catches to set all-time NCAA single season record. Falcon kickers are just 10-18 on field goals inside 40 yards, a definite weak spot.

MAC teams are now 0-10 in bowls the last 2+ seasons; Falcons lost to Tulsa 63-7 in their last bowl appearance 10 years ago. Idaho was last in a bowl 11 years ago, upsetting Southern Miss here as 17-point dog, Boise is only 300 miles from Moscow, so Vandals figure to have sizeable edge in crowd support. Light snow and temps in mid-30s are expected but no real winds, so expect a high scoring shootout with two porous defenses.

Holiday Bowl

Nebraska came within one second of playing in BCS bowl, but going to San Diego has to be good for Cornhuskers, considering this is just their second bowl in last seven years, after they played in 42 straight bowls from 1962-2003. 11 of 13 Nebraska opponents scored 17 or less points; Huskers were minus-12 in turnovers in their four losses; five of their six senior starters play on defense. Huskers are +5 in blocked kicks this yr.

Arizona runs Texas Tech system; assistant coach Dykes is son of former Tech coach. Red Raiders beat Nebraska this year 31-10, only game they lost by more than two points. Wildcats lost DC Stoops to Florida State; they've got 11 senior starters, three of whom start on OL. Wildcats are averaging 30 ppg and 4-7 yards/game; they figure to get injured Grigsby back, their best RB. Arizona ranks 4th in punt returns, 11th with kicks.

Average total in last three Holiday Bowls is 71.3, with seven of last nine totals in this bowl 55+. Pac-10 teams are just 4-6 in last 10 appearances here. Underdog covered nine of last eleven Holiday Bowls. Arizona's last three games were all decided by four or less points; they're 5-3 this year against bowl teams; Nebraska is 3-4. Arizona has edge at QB, Nebraska has better defense. Neither team has much bowl experience.

 
Posted : December 30, 2009 8:19 am
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Wednesday's Bowl Bets
By Sportsbook.com

Humanitarian Bowl – Bowling Green vs. Idaho

The Bowling Green-Idaho matchup in the Humanitarian Bowl is expected to produce a lot of points. Idaho was a 1-point favorite for most of the time leading up to the game, but late action has pushed Bowling Green into the chalk role. At last check, 57% of the betting action at Sportsbook.com was on the Bowling Green Falcons.

Idaho’s first winning season since 1999 was a tail of two separate campaigns. The first part of the season has the folks from Moscow going nuts as the Vandals were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS, making bettors unbelievably pleased. When the schedule peaked, the defense wore down and Idaho allowed 50 points per game in finishing 1-4 and 0-5 ATS. The passing game was special all season in finishing 12th nationally.

Bowling Green also finished 7-5 SU and ATS during the regular season, having the almost complete opposite year. The Falcons began 1-4 (2-3 ATS) and had a soaring finish with 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS to close. The Bowling Green pass offense was even better in ranking 8th overall and the defense forced 11 turnovers is 4-0 SU and ATS close of regular season.

Other reasons to watch are some of the players involved. Bowling Green has receiver Freddy Barnes, who is five catches away from setting the NCAA record with 143 receptions in the season. Barring injury, this is the closest thing to a lock in this contest, since Barnes averages over 10 catches a game for a team that is 8-1 ATS away from home after the first month of the season over the last two years.

Idaho doesn’t have a star exactly, just a number of players to keep an eye. Junior quarterback Nathan Enderle has a strong arm and leads a down the field passing game that averaged 9.5 yards per attempt, better than two yards more than what opponents allowed. The Vandals have a trio of running backs and they will be important if Idaho is to win, since the defense can’t stay on the field for long (allow 35.5 PPG) and Coach Robb Akey doesn’t want one-dimensional attack. Though Idaho can be expected to be pumped up for a rare bowl appearance, they’ve shown an inclination of having a tough time turning negatives around with a 3-12 ATS record after two or more consecutive straight up losses the last few years.

Bowling Green has been a streaky bowl team at 4-4, losing their first three then winning their next four, before being dismantled by Tulsa 63-7 in GMAC Bowl in 2008. The Falcons are 1-5 and 2-4 ATS vs. other postseason participants.

This is Idaho’s second-ever bowl experience as part of the FBS universities. They played in this very game 11 years ago and pulled one the bigger outright upsets in downing Southern Miss 42-35 as 17.5-point dogs. This is first time a MAC squad has played in this bowl and the underdog has covered four of last five.

Sportsbook.com has Bowling Green as a one-point choice after opening as a single digit underdog. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS on the road vs. poor passing defenses allowing completion percentage of 58 percent or worse. Presuming the line holds, Idaho is 9-4 ATS as an underdog and 9-2 ATS after surrendering 450 or more yards in next game, though unfamiliar territory with this much time off for a bowl experience.

Holiday Bowl – Nebraska vs. Arizona

The chant “D-Fence” might be ringing around Qualcomm Park for the 2009 edition of the Holiday Bowl. If this is a low-scoring defensive struggle, don’t be surprised, since Nebraska ranks ninth in total defense and Arizona comes in 20th among FBS schools. Those who watched the Big 12 championship game, viewed just how good defensive tackle Nudamukong Suh and the rest of the Nebraska defense is in almost taking down Texas. Latest odds at Sportsbook.com show Nebraska as a 3-point favorite, with a total of 40. Most of the money comes in on the Cornhuskers and the UNDER.

Nebraska (9-4, 8-4 ATS) was a foot away from an upset of the Longhorns and a BCS berth in the Big 12 title game. Instead, the Longhorns winning field goal snuck inside the upright. Now the Cornhuskers must regroup and prepare for Arizona who can also play a little D. The children of the corn are 8-3 ATS against teams with winning records.

The Wildcats finished 11th in the country against the run and they will look to corral Roy Helu, one of the more underrated backs in the country. Quarterback Zac Lee does not appear to pose a threat, since he has neither the arm, accuracy nor poise under pressure to run long drives against a defense like Arizona. The Cats are 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 non-conference clashes and can turn some heads with a win in San Diego.

For long time Holiday Bowl aficionados, this is the second ever rematch, with these teams having competed in 1998. The Wildcats (8-4, 6-6 ATS) won 23-20 on that day and they will be after a second trophy.

Arizona’s season took off when Nick Foles took over as quarterback, giving them diversity on offense. The Wildcats will face a very good Nebraska pass defense and he will have to make quick reads and release the ball for a team that is 9-3 ATS as underdogs.

For all of Nebraska’s previous excellence, they are pedestrian 23-22 and 16-15 ATS after the regular season. The line movement has been wild on this matchup. The Cornhuskers started as favorites, were sent to underdogs by early bettors, with the late money reestablishing them as 3-point favorites at Sportsbook.com.

Arizona has a three bowl winning streak, however it dates back to 1997 and they are 6-7-1 and 6-4-1 ATS all-time. Since 1998, this has been a Big 12-Pac 10 tilt, with the teams from out west 8-3 ATS. In the last dozen years, the Big 12 is 3-9 ATS.

Both defenses would seem to have decided edges over respective offenses, but both could force turnovers or create field position advantages that could lead to points, thus the Under isn’t a guarantee.

 
Posted : December 30, 2009 1:06 pm
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Tips and Trends

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Idaho Vandals

Bowling Green (-1, O/U 68): Bowling Green has won 4 consecutive games SU in route to a 7-5 record this season. The Falcons have scored 30 or more PTS in all 7 wins this season, including 7 of their last 8 games. Bowling Green is 4-2 both SU and ATS this season away from home. The Falcons are 3-3 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. Bowling Green moves the chains offensively through the air, with WR Freddie Barnes likely on the finishing end of things. The Biletnikoff finalist led the country in both catches and TDs this season (138 and 16) respectively. 14 of those TD catches have come in his past 5 games. Senior QB Tyler Sheehan has thrown for over 3,650 YDS with 23 TDs against 6 INTs. Defensively, the Falcons have held 5 of their past 6 opponents to 24 PTS or fewer. The Falcons allow over 190 rushing YPG, but have forced 11 turnovers over their past 4 games.

Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS last 4 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games following an ATS win.

Key Injuries = DT Kevin Alvarado (disciplinary) is doubtful.
WR Tyrone Pronty (foot) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 41 (Side of the Day)

Idaho: Idaho is bowling for the first time in 11 years, and making the game even sweeter is the fact that they are playing in their home state. Idaho struggled to end the season, losing their last 3 games SU in finishing the year 7-5 SU. In those 3 losses, the Vandals allowed 146 PTS combined. In fact, over their past 5 games the Vandals are allowing exactly 50 PPG. After winning their first 6 games as underdogs ATS, Idaho has lost their past 3 games as the listed underdog. The Vandals are also 4-2 ATS away from home this season. QB Nathan Enderle leads this Vandals offensive attack, as he's got the 7th highest quarterback rating in the country at 122.75. RB DeMaundray Woolridge leads a 3 headed rushing attack that has combined for over 1,800 YDS and 24 total TDs. The Vandals have lost 3 consecutive bowl games to teams representing the MAC Conference.

Idaho is 0-5 ATS last 5 games overall.
Over is 8-1 last 9 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - QB Nathan Enderle (shoulder) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 30

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Arizona Wildcats

Nebraska (-2.5, O/U 41): Nebraska was 1 measly second away from playing in a BCS game, as they pushed highly favored Texas to the max. Nebraska was once again led by a dominating defense that limited Texas to half of their typical offensive numbers. DT Ndamukong Suh is a manchild, as he's clearly the best defensive player in college football. Suh had 82 tackles, 12 sacks, and 23 tackles for a loss this season in route to a 4th place finish in the Heisman Trophy voting. Nebraska struggles on offense but is led by RB Roy Helu, who ran for over 1,100 YDS this season. The Cornhuskers have been held under 270 total YDS in 4 of their past 5 games. Nebraska has won 5 of their past 6 games SU to finish the season at 9-4 SU. Nebraska was 4-1 SU on the road this season, including 3-2 ATS away from home this year. Nebraska was also 2-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this season.

Nebraska is 5-0 ATS last 5 non-conference games.
Under is 5-1 last 6 Bowl games.

Key Injuries - RB Quentin Castille (disciplinary) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Arizona: The last time Arizona played Nebraska, they were victorious in this exact bowl in 1998. The 22nd ranked Wildcats will be looking for similar results tonight. Arizona finished the regular season at 8-4 SU in a season filled with promise. Arizona was very close to going to the Rose Bowl before losing to Oregon at home in the final seconds. Arizona is 3-3 SU away from home, including an ATS record of 2-4. As an underdog this season, Arizona is 3-2 ATS. Sophomore QB Nick Foles has come on strong since taking over the QB position, finishing the season as the 4th rated passer in the Pac-10. RBs Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin have combined for 1,100 yards and nine TDs this year. In their past 3 road games, this Arizona offense is only averaging 19 PPG. Defensively, the Wildcats only allow 315 YPG which ranks them 21st in the country. The Wildcats have also held 4 of their past 5 opponents to 2 TDs or fewer in each contest.

Arizona is 9-3 ATS last 12 games as an underdog.
Under is 11-2 last 13 games as an underdog up to a field goal.

Key Injuries - RB Nicholas Grigsby (shoulder) is probable.
QB Nick Foles (hand) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 13

 
Posted : December 30, 2009 1:07 pm
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