NCAAF Opening Line Report: Week 4
By: Patrick Everson
Covers.com
No. 15 Texas Christian Horned Frogs at No. 7 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-9.5)
Oklahoma State got some preseason hype and delivered on it through the first three weeks. The Cowboys won and cashed in all three games, boatracing Pittsburgh 59-21 Saturday as a 10.5-point road favorite.
Texas Christian had little trouble in the first three weeks, as well. The Horned Frogs (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) nabbed a 28-7 road win over SEC outfit Arkansas in Week 2, then let Southern Methodist hang around for a half Saturday before rumbling to a 56-36 home win as a 22-point favorite.
This game saw a big move after the opening line went up Sunday night.
“Early Oklahoma State bettors got some great value as the number went from -9.5 up to -13,” Mason said. “The public pounded the Cowboys in each of the first three weeks and cashed (all three). The early bettors are counting on another Oklahoma State cover, as only 23 percent of the bettors are on TCU so far.”
No. 19 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5)
Mississippi State is surprisingly out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS, and easily its most impressive win came Saturday against a well-regarded Louisiana State squad. The Bulldogs scored the final 30 points of the game, rolling to a 37-7 victory as a 7.5-point home underdog.
Georgia is also 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS), including a big 20-19 victory at Notre Dame as a 5.5-point pup in Week 2. These Bulldogs faced much lighter-weight competition Saturday, coasting past Samford 42-14 while falling short as a hefty 33-point favorite.
“This game is getting the most early action by far,” Mason said. “With Mississippi State’s impressive shellacking of LSU, in addition to its flawless 3-0 record ATS, it’s not surprising that 64 percent of the early bettors are taking the 6 and a hook.”
UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal (-8 )
These two teams both looked promising entering the season, but now both have some things to figure out in Week 4. Stanford (1-2 SU and ATS) drew a lot of action in Week 2 at Southern California, but got drubbed 42-24 as a 3.5-point pup. The hangover lasted through Week 3, when the Cardinal traveled to San Diego State and were dealt a 20-17 upset laying 8.5 points Saturday night.
UCLA made a miraculous Week 1 comeback to beat visiting Texas A&M, and QB Josh Rosen and Co. seemed to really get rolling in a 56-23 Week 2 wipeout of Hawaii giving 24 points at home. But Saturday at Memphis, the Bruins (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) let the Tigers go up and down the field all day, losing a shootout 48-45 as a 2.5-point favorite.
“UCLA’s outright loss to Memphis was one of the best games of the weekend for the house,” Mason said of an outcome that bolstered BetOnline’s bottom line. “This number is jumping all over the place, with two-way informed action. Sharp accounts immediately hit Stanford -8, quickly moving the Cardinal up to 10-point chalk. Smart money then took the points from there, betting it back down to 7.5. Overall, the early bettors are split, with 55 percent on UCLA.”
BetOnline.ag saw a little more Bruins money late Sunday evening, as the number went down to 7.
No. 5 Penn State Nittany Lions at Iowa Hawkeyes (+12)
Penn State is picking up where it left off last season, when it surprisingly won the Big Ten championship and gave an equally red-hot Southern Cal team all it could handle before losing the Rose Bowl 52-49 as a 7-point ‘dog. The Nittany Lions are 3-0 SU this year (2-0-1 ATS), with 19 points the smallest margin of victory, and they tuned up for this Big Ten opener with a 56-0 bashing of Georgia Southern as a 37-point chalk Saturday.
Iowa is 3-0 SU (1-2 ATS) and also got a relatively easy tuneup game for this matchup. The Hawkeyes topped North Texas 31-14 Saturday giving 19.5 points at home.
“Over the first three weeks of the season, the Nittany Lions have been a popular bet for the public,” Mason said. “It’s definitely a step up in competition this weekend against the 3-0 Hawkeyes. Sixty-six percent of the early bettors are taking the points.”
Opening Line Report - Week 4
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Mississippi State turned heads with its 37-7 romp as a 7.5-point home underdog over LSU last Saturday, and they’ll be substantial dogs again this week when they visit Georgia.
Despite Miss State’s impressive showing this past weekend, bettors laid the points immediately upon Week 4 college football lines being posted Sunday at the Wynn, pushing the point spread from Georgia -5.5 to -7 within minutes. The +7 prompted buyback on Miss State, the line sinking to 5 before progressing back to 6.5 on Monday.
John Avello, sports book director at the Wynn, said he’s surprised by Miss State’s 3-0 start, and while he’s adjusted the power rating on Dan Mullen’s men, he offered a few words of caution for those looking to ride them in Athens this week.
“The LSU game was eye-opening, but the LSU offense is very week – no quarterback there,” Avello said.
“I reevaluated (Miss State) as being a better team than I thought, but this a tough spot because Georgia is team that has a good chance to win the (SEC) East, and this is a game they need to get through, because after this .... the schedule gets real tough (and many of the games are within the East division). So it’s a game they’d certainly like to have in their pocket.”
To Ed Salmons, manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, LSU didn’t appear ready for Miss State.
“LSU played like they were walking into a game they thought they’d win easy, and before they knew it, they were down so much they had no chance,” he said.
Nevertheless, he was impressed by Miss State.
“No one really beats LSU like that,” he said.
Salmons, though, agrees with Avello that Saturday’s game is a difficult spot for the underdog.
“This is a tough crossover game for Miss State after the big win,” Salmons said. “This is gonna be a tough spot for them. But from what you see, there’s no reason they can’t compete.”
Here’s a quick look at a few more of Saturday’s games.
N.C. State at Florida State (-11.5)
Avello opened Florida State -12.5 and moved to -13 before scaling back to -11.5 during Sunday wagering.
The Seminoles come into this contest having not played since losing to Alabama in Week 1 (their schedule the last two week was disrupted by Hurricane Irma) and also without Heisman candidate quarterback Deondre Francois, who was lost for the season to a knee injury.
Avello said with James Blackman replacing Francois, he’s tweaked his rating on FSU, but he’ll hold off on making a major adjustment until he sees how the 6-foot-5 freshman performs.
“College football is a lot different than in pro football, where if you lose your starter and you go to your second string you fall way off usually,” Avello said. “That’s not necessarily the case in college football, because the kids they recruit are such good athletes. Maybe the guy coming in is better than the kid that was already there – I doubt that, but he may be over time.
“It’s an adjustment but not a huge, huge adjustment, so we’ll see what happens over the next couple of weeks.”
From a betting perspective, N.C. State has owned Florida State for over a decade and a half, covering the spread in 13 of the last 16 meetings, and Avello is high on the Wolfpack this season, too.
”I think N.C. State’s a lot better than they’ve shown so far (the Wolfpack are 2-1, with a loss to South Carolina and wins over Marshall and Furman). Coming into the season, I expected them to have pretty good season, an eight- or nine-win type of year. They played Florida State tough last year (a 24-20 loss as 7-point dogs). Even without having that quality a team, they gave them some trouble.”
TCU at Oklahoma State (-11.5)
Oklahoma State continues to roll through the early part of the season, winning 59-21 at Pitt this past Saturday behind a 497-yard, five TD performance from QB Mason Rudolph. And it could have been worse – coach Mike Gundy took Rudolph out of the game with about five minutes to go in the third quarter.
The Cowboys opened -11 at the Wynn, and despite the lofty number against a ranked conference foe, bettors laid the points and pushed the line to -12.
While TCU is expected to be without running back Kyle Hicks, Avello said the senior’s absence was baked into his original number. Plus, Darius Anderson has carried the bulk of the load in the Horned Frogs’ backfield this season.
The early line here looked big to Salmons.
“I’m surprised by how high this line is. I thought that line would be more than a touchdown but a notch below 10,” he said. “But it looks like they’re going to take every Ok State game and add 3 or 4 points, and if you want to bet the dog, so be it. They did that last week (at Pitt). I thought the 14.5 they pushed that line up to was crazy, and they had (49) points by halftime. It was just insane. They could have scored 100 points if they wanted to. I liked them coming into the year, but I didn’t think they’d be as good as they’ve looked so far.
“But this will be a tough game. TCU is pretty good,” Salmons added.
Said Avello, “What you’ve got to contend with is Ok State’s 50-plus points a game. They spread it around, they’re just a really tough team to defend, and they’ve made very few mistakes so far. I understand why the game is double digits, but you’ve got to be careful not to give a quality team like TCU too much.”
Alabama (-19.5) at Vanderbilt
While the Alabama opened -19.5 at the Wynn and stuck there through the first 24 hours of betting action, other shops were gentler on chalk players, offering ‘Bama -18.5. Before laying even that shorter number, know Vandy is a tough bet-against proposition at home vs. SEC opponents. The Commodores are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home conference games.
Vandy is also off to a 3-0 start, although Avello noticed “they got a lot of breaks” in Saturday’s win over Kansas State.
“A lot of (calls) went their way and they ended up winning the game, 14-7. That’s a game they could have lost very easily,” Avello said. “Offensively, against a team like Kansas State, they didn’t show much. They had a couple of big plays and that’s how they got on the board. Now you meet a team like (Alabama) who can shut them down and the problem they’re going to have is trying to score against Alabama.
“If Vandy can find some offense in this game, maybe they can hang around,” he added. “The spread’s not as big as you would normally see for an Alabama game.”
Should Vandy keep the game close early by slowing Alabama’s offense, hold off on spending the winnings from your underdog bet until the final buzzer sounds, cautions the Wynn oddsmaker.
“Maybe they can shut them down a little bit. I suspect in the first half they might, but long term, the whole game, Alabama’s the type of team – we see it week in and week out – they will wear you out over time,” Avello said.
Michigan (-10) at Purdue
Bettors took Purdue +11, the Wynn’s opening line, and the number sunk to 9.5 before being bet back up to 10. But based on how Avello anticipates this line moving, you may want to lay the points now if you’re on Michigan this week.
“I expect this line to go up. I expect to close this game 11 or higher,” he said.
Purdue has put together a solid season so far, its only loss a 35-28 defeat as 25.5-point dogs against Louisville. Since then, they’ve beaten Ohio (44-21) and Missouri (35-3).
The Boilermakers should expect to face a Jim Harbaugh group that’s at its best.
“They haven’t had a winning record at home for over four years, so I don’t know how much weight I give there,” Avello said. “Michigan really hasn’t played that well so far, but they’re capable. As the season goes on, they get better, and Michigan knows this team is playing well, and Michigan’s offense has been so-so…. I think they come in prepared for this one.
“That’s’ the problem for Purdue. They might catch a Michigan team who is ready to roll.”
Penn State (-12) at Iowa
Iowa may be 3-0, but the Westgate’s Salmons believes this double-digit line is justified.
“I don’t think much of Iowa,” Salmons said. “I know Iowa beat Michigan last year, but they were so fortunate to beat Iowa State (in Week 2 this season). They had no business winning that game. Wyoming’s been just awful, so I kind of throw that game out, and they were losing at home to North Texas at halftime.”
Early Line Moves
Here are Week 4 games that have seen the point spread move at least 2 points in the favorite’s direction during first 24 hours of wagering at the Wynn.
Boston College vs. Clemson
Open line: Clemson -31.5
After 24 hours: Clemson -33.5
Kent State vs. Louisville
Open line: Louisville -39.5
After 24 hours: Louisville -41.5
Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech
Open line: Va Tech -24.5
After 24 hours: Va Tech -26.5
Rutgers vs. Nebraska
Open line: Nebraska -11
After 24 hours: Nebraska -14
Ball State vs. Western Kentucky
Open line: WKU -7
After 24 hours: WKU -9
Nevada vs. Washington State
Open line: Wash State -25
After 24 hours: Wash State -27.5
Here are Week 4 games that have seen the point spread move at least 2 points in the underdog’s direction during the first 24 hours of wagering at the Wynn.
Louisiana Tech vs. South Carolina
Open line: La Tech +10.5
After 24 hours: La Tech +8.5
San Diego State vs. Air Force
Open line: Air Force +6
After 24 hours: Air Force +3.5
Oregon vs. Arizona State
Open line: ASU +17
After 24 hours: ASU +15
College Football Opening Line Report Week 4
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
For a betting card that lacks marquee matchups, the Week 4 card in college football certainly doesn’t lack intriguing lines and a lot of handicapping techniques will be in play. We’ve got situational spots galore, but we also have some of the same overreactions that we have been seeing in the marketplace on a regular basis. It is a complex card and we have seen some interesting line movement early on in the week.
We’ll try to do what we can to incorporate totals each week, as they open up on Monday afternoons, but sometimes we’ll get this out beforehand. As far as this week goes, totals are up based on the timing of the article, so we’ll be able to touch on those as well.
Here is the Opening Line Report for Week 4 of the college football season:
Temple at South Florida (-20.5, 58.5) – South Florida appears to be the preferred side from those getting invested early in the week. It isn’t a big surprise, with how bad Temple has looked through three weeks. Keep in mind, though, that it doesn’t take a lot of financial involvement to push from 17.5 to 20.5, as there are no key numbers. Somebody likes USF, but this isn’t an avalanche of money.
Pitt at Georgia Tech (-7.5, 60) – The Pitt Panthers were steamed by the betting market last week against Oklahoma State and it backfired in glorious fashion. This week, the line for Georgia Tech, who had a game postponed due to the hurricane and choked one away against Tennessee, was a bit light according to the market. A move from 6.5 to 7.5 is more notable than a move from 17.5 to 20.5, which is an illustration on how context matters in the market. The Yellow Jackets look to be the preferred sharp side, at least for now, as many will be fading Pitt again this week and the sharp guys may buy back after grabbing below a touchdown.
UCF at Maryland (-3.5, 67) – The total has gone up for the UCF/Maryland game, which is no surprise given the tempo for UCF and the fact that Maryland has scored 114 points through two games. What is surprising is that Maryland is a clear favorite north of the key number. Many influential bettors are sitting and waiting here, as they have UCF favored in their personal power ratings, but the unique Hurricane Irma element seems to be keeping people away. Look for movement in this line throughout the week, likely on the UCF side.
Louisiana Tech at South Carolina (-8, 56.5) – The Bulldogs appeared to be the preferred sharp side, but this is a bad spot for both teams. Louisiana Tech just knocked off Western Kentucky in thrilling fashion in a huge Conference USA game. Now the Bulldogs leave conference play to battle a South Carolina team in a bounce back spot after beating Kentucky on the stat sheet, but not the scoreboard. The Gamecocks lost Deebo Samuel to a broken leg and that announcement kicked off either a line move or a line adjustment today. This will be a great line to watch during the week, as it has come down from 11.5.
TCU at Oklahoma State (-13, 66.5) – A lot of talk last week centered on Oklahoma State being overpriced against Pitt. The Cowboys blew out the Panthers. This week, Oklahoma State gets its first legitimate test as Big 12 play opens up against TCU. The market has already driven this number up from 10.5 to 13 pretty much across the market. We’ll see TCU buy back from numbers guys who are not going to have the number this high in what could be one of the most contested games on the board this weekend.
Mississippi State at Georgia (-7, 50) – Preying on overreaction is such an important thing. Two weeks ago, Georgia beat Notre Dame. Last week, Mississippi State crushed LSU as Georgia downed Samford. Well, it feels like nobody remembers Jake Fromm going on the road to win his first career start in South Bend. The line between the Bulldogs and the Bulldogs opened UGA -4.5 at Pinnacle. You won’t find that line again. BetOnline actually popped UGA -3, which was one of their weaker openers of the weekend.
Florida Atlantic at Buffalo (-3, 56) – A rising total must mean that Buffalo’s offense is better than we all expected, right? Tyree Jackson has been opening eyes and the market has been steadily adjusting Buffalo. It would have been unfathomable two weeks ago to see Buffalo favored here, but that is the case. The market hasn’t really spoken just yet, though Pinnacle did move from +3 to +2.5, so the Owls could be the sharp side in the making.
Utah State (-2.5, 58.5) at San Jose State – This is a game that you want to have on your radar. We should see side and total money come in on this game. We haven’t yet, but San Jose State is catching Utah State in an awful spot. The Aggies have already traveled to Madison, Wisconsin and Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Next week, they play in-state rival BYU. The oddsmakers have correctly put this situational spot in the line, but I think we see side and total money here. Utah State has increased its tempo and San Jose State is running plays at an alarming rate of speed.
Auburn (-19, 56.5) at Missouri – Missouri is terrible defensively and just fired the defensive coordinator. Auburn lost to Clemson and then struggled with Mercer in a 24-10 win. We’re seeing Auburn money hit the board here to drive the Tigers up from 17 to 19 against the lesser Tigers. It’s a hard bet to lay that kind of price, but the market is doing it thus far.
Notre Dame (-4.5, 54) at Michigan State – The market has spoken in this one and the market likes Notre Dame. That’s not a big surprise, since Michigan State has fallen off of the pace in recent seasons. My personal numbers say to play the Irish, but I’m not about to trust Brian Kelly with my money. The initial move on Notre Dame is right and the public will pile on, so we should see a 6 at some point this week.
UCLA at Stanford (-7.5, 63) – Josh Rosen has certainly played well and grabbed some headlines, but the Bruins fell in a tough spot against Memphis last week and now play a very physical, very unhappy Stanford team. The Cardinal have dropped back-to-back games against USC and San Diego State, so this is a big time bounce back spot against a California rival. As such, the market bumped Stanford right on up through the key number of 7.